Someone has been indulging in an extended & significant disruption of Russian tactical comms around the Kyiv front.
Its a short list of suspects.
Hi Yokes. Any further thoughts on how the war is going to ultimately pan out?
Battlefield wise, Russian losses are high but the attack isn't by any stretch a failure, its just slower than a lot expected.
Russian military is, however, badly stretched (the variety of forces making up the attack is a giveaway). Russian military defeat on the battlefield is now considered possible, IF the West supports Ukraine properly. Putin needs some city wins to strengthen his hand in negotiations. A failure to get them means he faces a foe that still has incentive to fight on. Putin wants to end the conflict but the hand he has isn't great as of today so he will fight on to an improved bargaining position.
Someone who knows better than me suggested the Ukrainians may have reserves to bring to bear, if they can get them trained & equipped into proper formations but time is of the essence. Russia may have huge reserves on paper but a significant call up is a signal at home that things are going wrong. In a week they may have to bite that bullet and do it anyway.
The still short odds scenario is well established; Russia grinds out some headline success but they do not have enough troops, nor local support to occupy & manage the populous. They haven't yet sussed out how to deal with that other than they would prefer not to have to occupy it themselves. The outcome therefore, ironically stemming from military success, may be really quite crappy.
I think the economic warfare of the West is going to be the biggest factor in putting Putin back in his box and forcing an end to the conflict. They are rumoured to be looking at further measures & need to go to the limit on the economic measures. The less palatable alternative, if they do not, is eventual Western military intervention of some kind. Some capitals have faced up to that scenario already so its not as way out as the public statements suggest. If they don't crush the Russian economy what are they going to do, just give up? Too deep in.
One last note. An awful lot of talking going with the Swedes and Finns right now. Rumours that something on NATO and them is coming but neither government has briefed to that effect.
Thank you Yokes. You know far better than me but I’d disagree with the line that the attack hasn’t been a failure. Not because the losses are necessarily high (they seem to follow the rule of 3-4x than the defender) but, because a crucial factor in Luton’s plans was that the war would be over quickly.
The simple fact is that Russia does not have time on its side. A quick, crushing victory was absolutely core to its plans because, as we are seeing, the Russian economy is vulnerable to economic sanctions. Success wasn’t to be judged in military terms alone; in fact, success was to be judged by how quickly Russia could “win”. Hence the massive invasion on multiple fronts.
So Russia has failed. Massively.
(Could write far more but need to feed the dogs)
The notion that Luton has invaded Ukraine is a cracking typo! And would explain why the blitzkrieg failed....
A long and detailed thread on the Russian attempts to control occupied territory. I cannot see how this can be successful without the collaboration of large numbers of Ukrainians, which it’s quite clear isn’t going to happen. It’s going to be very ugly.
https://twitter.com/mattia_n/status/1503439298581999622 A longer thread 🧵 on the alarming situation in #Ukraine's occupied southeast. The developments are fluid and both alarming and inspiring. What we are seeing there is the attempt to set up Stalin-like police states (dressed as "People's Republics"). Worst is yet to come. /1
In the long run, I think this war makes future large-scale conflict much harder for *any* country. We have seen the UK/west humiliated in Afghanistan (and less so) Iraq; and now Russia are finding Ukraine a much harder nut to crack than expected.
These are supposed tier-one militaries against tier-two or tier-three militaries; in the case of Afghanistan, we were not really fighting a 'military' in any coherent sense of the word. Yet despite billions of dollars, pounds and roubles being thrown at the battles, they were in many ways defeats (Iraq probably being the most 'successful').
In the case of Afghanistan and Iraq, US military might 'won' the war quickly. What was lost was the occupation afterwards: and I see no reason why Ukraine will not be the same for Russia, just as Afghanistan was in the 1980s. Especially as they are finding the initial 'conquering' difficult.
I'm not proclaiming the 'end of war': that would be stupid, and the small-scale Azerbaijan/Armenia war in 2020 seeing the aggressor win thanks to a massive amount of help from a powerful neighbour.
However, I think it makes any country think twice or thrice before committing to military action - especially if they have been kidding themselves about their martial prowess and materials.
Small, cheap, highly portable, hi-tech weapons are destroying lumbering cubes of expensive metal and rotary aircraft in ways that are unsustainable, The method of warfare by systematically taking out air defence first has also been profoundly questioned. Now, not every conflict is going to have a land-bridge for hi-tech defensive supplies to come in from a country that the aggressor dare not bomb. Not every conflict will have its missile engines drying up because they were manufactured in the country it is attacking. Not every country being attacked will have vast amounts of large rivers where the defenders have blown up the bridges, leaving the attacker to try and navigate a quagmire. After the ice has thawed. Not every war will have a despotic leader bellowing at another super power "You owe us weapons because we held off our "special operation" until your bloody winter Olympics were over. Until the ice thawed."
In the long run, I think this war makes future large-scale conflict much harder for *any* country. We have seen the UK/west humiliated in Afghanistan (and less so) Iraq; and now Russia are finding Ukraine a much harder nut to crack than expected.
These are supposed tier-one militaries against tier-two or tier-three militaries; in the case of Afghanistan, we were not really fighting a 'military' in any coherent sense of the word. Yet despite billions of dollars, pounds and roubles being thrown at the battles, they were in many ways defeats (Iraq probably being the most 'successful').
In the case of Afghanistan and Iraq, US military might 'won' the war quickly. What was lost was the occupation afterwards: and I see no reason why Ukraine will not be the same for Russia, just as Afghanistan was in the 1980s. Especially as they are finding the initial 'conquering' difficult.
I'm not proclaiming the 'end of war': that would be stupid, and the small-scale Azerbaijan/Armenia war in 2020 seeing the aggressor win thanks to a massive amount of help from a powerful neighbour.
However, I think it makes any country think twice or thrice before committing to military action - especially if they have been kidding themselves about their martial prowess and materials.
Small, cheap, highly portable, hi-tech weapons are destroying lumbering cubes of expensive metal and rotary aircraft in ways that are unsustainable, The method of warfare by systematically taking out air defence first has also been profoundly questioned. Now, not every conflict is going to have a land-bridge for hi-tech defensive supplies to come in from a country that the aggressor dare not bomb. Not every conflict will have its missile engines drying up because they were manufactured in the country it is attacking. Not every country being attacked will have vast amounts of large rivers where the defenders have blown up the bridges, leaving the attacker to try and navigate a quagmire. After the ice has thawed. Not every war will have a despotic leader bellowing at another super power "You owe us weapons because we held off our "special operation" until your bloody winter Olympics were over. Until the ice thawed."
But there will be general lessons to be learned.
The immediate first lesson, is that the weapons currently pouring into Ukraine are damn effective against the enemy, and the supply of them needs to keep coming as quickly as possible. More NLAWS and MANPADS, thousands of them!
I'm surprisingly confident that if Russia and China team up against the West they'll both end up losing, and the West will come out of it stronger than before.
Unless there is a nuclear holocaust in which case nobody will be stronger than before by my understanding of the term
South Africa?
This, ladies and gentlemen, is an excellent example of HYUFD's thought: That the destruction of Western and Eastern countries "strengthens" those not directly destroyed because they would power on up the ranks. Never mind the fact that the biosphere would be a fucking state and the world economy would head backwards a number of centuries. Rank is what matters in HYUFD's Trumpist view, and a negative sum game makes sense if only the others get hurt much more than you do.
HYUFD would cut his leg off if he knew everybody else would lose both legs.
Well the South African President has taken a neutral stance between Russia and NATO not wholly without self interest.
I would prefer him to be in the NATO camp but that is the reality
Given you don't think some countries already in it should have been allowed to join NATO I am surprised you would advocate for others to either join or be allied to it.
I refer you to my earlier post. HYUFD would be happy for South Africa to join because he fancies our chances of beating Eswatini in a war. Russia's a big boy, so we shouldn't meddle. Rank rank rank. Hit the little guy, give your lunch money to the big guy. No need to mess around with principles or whatever.
It is only NATO and the Anglosphere which help us to contain the big boys of Russia and China.
Yes we can defend the Falklands and Gibraltar and deal with Nationalists within our own islands but we cannot contain Putin and Xi alone
I would suggest that Japan and South Korea - neither of which are either NATO nor Anglosphere are very much holding their end up as well.
To an extent but as you say they are not in NATO nor are they in the AUKUS security agreement either
You really are out of touch if you think that AUKUS would take action without the approval and engagement of South Korea and Japan
Explicitly so, in fact. I even linked to the joint announcement from the three leaders for him.
The five power defence agreement sort of does, if you squint, but there’s not the same assumed compulsion to act like there is with NATO. And I’m not sure how real it is for Malaysia or Singapore.
The USA is not even in the five power defence agreement, so that is not of much real use in containing China unlike AUKUS
Five Powers was not intended and is not intended as a China containment pact.
Indeed Singapore and Malaysia would not wish to be part of something perceived as containing China; Singapore especially prizes it’s independence as the regions leading entrepôt (especially with HK in decline).
It’s more joint training and perhaps some tech sharing.
If anyone's "containment" was anticipated it was Indonesia's - it wasn't long since Konfrontasi with active fighting between British led forces and Sukarno's Indonesia. Apart from the odd mis-step (like naming a naval vessel after an Indonesian responsible for a terrorist attack in Singapore) relations today are much more cordial and they are united in common interest against Chinese territorial claims.
Someone has been indulging in an extended & significant disruption of Russian tactical comms around the Kyiv front.
Its a short list of suspects.
Hi Yokes. Any further thoughts on how the war is going to ultimately pan out?
Battlefield wise, Russian losses are high but the attack isn't by any stretch a failure, its just slower than a lot expected.
Russian military is, however, badly stretched (the variety of forces making up the attack is a giveaway). Russian military defeat on the battlefield is now considered possible, IF the West supports Ukraine properly. Putin needs some city wins to strengthen his hand in negotiations. A failure to get them means he faces a foe that still has incentive to fight on. Putin wants to end the conflict but the hand he has isn't great as of today so he will fight on to an improved bargaining position.
Someone who knows better than me suggested the Ukrainians may have reserves to bring to bear, if they can get them trained & equipped into proper formations but time is of the essence. Russia may have huge reserves on paper but a significant call up is a signal at home that things are going wrong. In a week they may have to bite that bullet and do it anyway.
The still short odds scenario is well established; Russia grinds out some headline success but they do not have enough troops, nor local support to occupy & manage the populous. They haven't yet sussed out how to deal with that other than they would prefer not to have to occupy it themselves. The outcome therefore, ironically stemming from military success, may be really quite crappy.
I think the economic warfare of the West is going to be the biggest factor in putting Putin back in his box and forcing an end to the conflict. They are rumoured to be looking at further measures & need to go to the limit on the economic measures. The less palatable alternative, if they do not, is eventual Western military intervention of some kind. Some capitals have faced up to that scenario already so its not as way out as the public statements suggest. If they don't crush the Russian economy what are they going to do, just give up? Too deep in.
One last note. An awful lot of talking going with the Swedes and Finns right now. Rumours that something on NATO and them is coming but neither government has briefed to that effect.
Fascinating update. Much appreciated. No idea the source of these updates from @Yokes , but they are very convincing. I had assumed that the Russians were making good progress and were on track to "win" the war (despite the news/propoganda that we get) - it still seems like that is the case, but the cost is getting higher and higher every day; and any victory will be phyrric in nature and very temporary. The tragedy is the human cost of this folly.
It also looks more and more like Russia is ruined, over the long term, and this conflict will hasten its decline. This is the other tragedy here. Why couldn't it have become a major power in a greater, allied Europe, after 1990? Hard to avoid the conclusion that the country has simply been ruined by the 'corrupt dictatorship' form of government.
In the long run, I think this war makes future large-scale conflict much harder for *any* country. We have seen the UK/west humiliated in Afghanistan (and less so) Iraq; and now Russia are finding Ukraine a much harder nut to crack than expected.
These are supposed tier-one militaries against tier-two or tier-three militaries; in the case of Afghanistan, we were not really fighting a 'military' in any coherent sense of the word. Yet despite billions of dollars, pounds and roubles being thrown at the battles, they were in many ways defeats (Iraq probably being the most 'successful').
In the case of Afghanistan and Iraq, US military might 'won' the war quickly. What was lost was the occupation afterwards: and I see no reason why Ukraine will not be the same for Russia, just as Afghanistan was in the 1980s. Especially as they are finding the initial 'conquering' difficult.
I'm not proclaiming the 'end of war': that would be stupid, and the small-scale Azerbaijan/Armenia war in 2020 seeing the aggressor win thanks to a massive amount of help from a powerful neighbour.
However, I think it makes any country think twice or thrice before committing to military action - especially if they have been kidding themselves about their martial prowess and materials.
Small, cheap, highly portable, hi-tech weapons are destroying lumbering cubes of expensive metal and rotary aircraft in ways that are unsustainable, The method of warfare by systematically taking out air defence first has also been profoundly questioned. Now, not every conflict is going to have a land-bridge for hi-tech defensive supplies to come in from a country that the aggressor dare not bomb. Not every conflict will have its missile engines drying up because they were manufactured in the country it is attacking. Not every country being attacked will have vast amounts of large rivers where the defenders have blown up the bridges, leaving the attacker to try and navigate a quagmire. After the ice has thawed. Not every war will have a despotic leader bellowing at another super power "You owe us weapons because we held off our "special operation" until your bloody winter Olympics were over. Until the ice thawed."
But there will be general lessons to be learned.
Yes, but Afghanistan was not the same as Ukraine. Neither is Iraq. Yet a massively superior force was humbled in both (in Afghanistan, two powers in the last 40 years).
It might be that modern equipment massively favours the defenders. Perhaps. And 'modern' hit-and-run techniques by partisans, the same. And whilst at attacker could destroy an entire area, killing everyone within it, modern communications means that the world gets to know.
Someone has been indulging in an extended & significant disruption of Russian tactical comms around the Kyiv front.
Its a short list of suspects.
Hi Yokes. Any further thoughts on how the war is going to ultimately pan out?
Battlefield wise, Russian losses are high but the attack isn't by any stretch a failure, its just slower than a lot expected.
Russian military is, however, badly stretched (the variety of forces making up the attack is a giveaway). Russian military defeat on the battlefield is now considered possible, IF the West supports Ukraine properly. Putin needs some city wins to strengthen his hand in negotiations. A failure to get them means he faces a foe that still has incentive to fight on. Putin wants to end the conflict but the hand he has isn't great as of today so he will fight on to an improved bargaining position.
Someone who knows better than me suggested the Ukrainians may have reserves to bring to bear, if they can get them trained & equipped into proper formations but time is of the essence. Russia may have huge reserves on paper but a significant call up is a signal at home that things are going wrong. In a week they may have to bite that bullet and do it anyway…
The quality of Ukraine reserves is quite likely good ? Since the Donbas conflict started, they’ve had 18 month conscription, with hundreds of thousands serving, and significant numbers will have some experience on the Donbas front. Of course organising them while the country is is semi chaos will not be trivial.
Zelensky: "Russian soldiers and officers know they can't win. "They flee the battlefield, abandon their equipment. We take the trophies and use them to protect Ukraine." Says Russia is now "one of the suppliers of equipment for our army."....
Someone has been indulging in an extended & significant disruption of Russian tactical comms around the Kyiv front.
Its a short list of suspects.
Hi Yokes. Any further thoughts on how the war is going to ultimately pan out?
Battlefield wise, Russian losses are high but the attack isn't by any stretch a failure, its just slower than a lot expected.
Russian military is, however, badly stretched (the variety of forces making up the attack is a giveaway). Russian military defeat on the battlefield is now considered possible, IF the West supports Ukraine properly. Putin needs some city wins to strengthen his hand in negotiations. A failure to get them means he faces a foe that still has incentive to fight on. Putin wants to end the conflict but the hand he has isn't great as of today so he will fight on to an improved bargaining position.
Someone who knows better than me suggested the Ukrainians may have reserves to bring to bear, if they can get them trained & equipped into proper formations but time is of the essence. Russia may have huge reserves on paper but a significant call up is a signal at home that things are going wrong. In a week they may have to bite that bullet and do it anyway…
The quality of Ukraine reserves is quite likely good ? Since the Donbas conflict started, they’ve had 18 month conscription, with hundreds of thousands serving, and significant numbers will have some experience on the Donbas front. Of course organising them while the country is is semi chaos will not be trivial.
Zelensky: "Russian soldiers and officers know they can't win. "They flee the battlefield, abandon their equipment. We take the trophies and use them to protect Ukraine." Says Russia is now "one of the suppliers of equipment for our army."....
If wars were won on social media this would have been a Ukrainian walk over....
Someone has been indulging in an extended & significant disruption of Russian tactical comms around the Kyiv front.
Its a short list of suspects.
Hi Yokes. Any further thoughts on how the war is going to ultimately pan out?
Battlefield wise, Russian losses are high but the attack isn't by any stretch a failure, its just slower than a lot expected.
Russian military is, however, badly stretched (the variety of forces making up the attack is a giveaway). Russian military defeat on the battlefield is now considered possible, IF the West supports Ukraine properly. Putin needs some city wins to strengthen his hand in negotiations. A failure to get them means he faces a foe that still has incentive to fight on. Putin wants to end the conflict but the hand he has isn't great as of today so he will fight on to an improved bargaining position.
Someone who knows better than me suggested the Ukrainians may have reserves to bring to bear, if they can get them trained & equipped into proper formations but time is of the essence. Russia may have huge reserves on paper but a significant call up is a signal at home that things are going wrong. In a week they may have to bite that bullet and do it anyway…
The quality of Ukraine reserves is quite likely good ? Since the Donbas conflict started, they’ve had 18 month conscription, with hundreds of thousands serving, and significant numbers will have some experience on the Donbas front. Of course organising them while the country is is semi chaos will not be trivial.
Zelensky: "Russian soldiers and officers know they can't win. "They flee the battlefield, abandon their equipment. We take the trophies and use them to protect Ukraine." Says Russia is now "one of the suppliers of equipment for our army."....
*If* we take the equipment losses at the page below seriously, then Russia has 'lost' 214 tanks, of which 96 have been captured by the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians have lost 65, of which 31 have been captured.
It is therefore possible that the Ukrainians have more tanks than they had when the war started. Of course, they're useless without trained crews, and I bet (guess) that tank crews take some time to train. Also, some captured ones will be useless due to damage or missing parts.
Which leads to another question: Ukrainian and Russian tanks are fairly similar (T64, T70, T80-based), given the countries joint history. Do they use the same sort of ammunition?
A fairly silly cartoon. What would your answer be to the energy problem we are facing in the next year?
In the long term, we need to diversify our energy supply so we can cut off these bad/evil regimes. But in the meantime we have to hold our noses. Unless you want massive energy problems over the winter.
(Actually, given it would hurt the government, I can imagine you might salivate at the thought, however many fellow citizens it hurt.)
A fairly silly cartoon. What would your answer be to the energy problem we are facing in the next year?
In the long term, we need to diversify our energy supply so we can cut off these bad/evil regimes. But in the meantime we have to hold our noses. Unless you want massive energy problems over the winter.
(Actually, given it would hurt the government, I can imagine you might salivate at the thought, however many fellow citizens it hurt.)
I'm sure everybody tweeting that cartoon has stopped using their car. "Yeah, right on!"
Someone has been indulging in an extended & significant disruption of Russian tactical comms around the Kyiv front.
Its a short list of suspects.
Hi Yokes. Any further thoughts on how the war is going to ultimately pan out?
Battlefield wise, Russian losses are high but the attack isn't by any stretch a failure, its just slower than a lot expected.
Russian military is, however, badly stretched (the variety of forces making up the attack is a giveaway). Russian military defeat on the battlefield is now considered possible, IF the West supports Ukraine properly. Putin needs some city wins to strengthen his hand in negotiations. A failure to get them means he faces a foe that still has incentive to fight on. Putin wants to end the conflict but the hand he has isn't great as of today so he will fight on to an improved bargaining position.
Someone who knows better than me suggested the Ukrainians may have reserves to bring to bear, if they can get them trained & equipped into proper formations but time is of the essence. Russia may have huge reserves on paper but a significant call up is a signal at home that things are going wrong. In a week they may have to bite that bullet and do it anyway…
The quality of Ukraine reserves is quite likely good ? Since the Donbas conflict started, they’ve had 18 month conscription, with hundreds of thousands serving, and significant numbers will have some experience on the Donbas front. Of course organising them while the country is is semi chaos will not be trivial.
The main limitation on Ukrainian reserves may be a lack of equipment. Yes they'll have access to NLAWs, etc, but that helps them mainly to fight defensively.
To go on the offensive they'd need heavier equipment.
A fairly silly cartoon. What would your answer be to the energy problem we are facing in the next year?
In the long term, we need to diversify our energy supply so we can cut off these bad/evil regimes. But in the meantime we have to hold our noses. Unless you want massive energy problems over the winter.
(Actually, given it would hurt the government, I can imagine you might salivate at the thought, however many fellow citizens it hurt.)
I’m sure that some idiots must have spent WWII drawing endless cartoons attacking the government, if not actually supporting the Germans, and some stupid newspaper editors will have published them.
Multiple demonstrations have taken place over several days in the Russian occupied cities of Kherson, Melitopol and Berdyansk.
Reporting suggests that Russia may seek to stage a “referendum” in Kherson in an attempt to legitimise the area as a “breakaway republic” similar to Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea.
Further protests were reported in the city yesterday with Russian forces reportedly firing warning shots in an attempt to disperse peaceful protesters.
Russia has reportedly installed its own mayor in Melitopol following the alleged abduction of his predecessor on Friday 11 March. Subsequently, the Mayor of Dniprorudne has also reportedly been abducted by Russian forces.
Russia is likely to make further attempts to subvert Ukrainian democracy as it attempts to consolidate political control of Ukraine.
Someone has been indulging in an extended & significant disruption of Russian tactical comms around the Kyiv front.
Its a short list of suspects.
Hi Yokes. Any further thoughts on how the war is going to ultimately pan out?
Battlefield wise, Russian losses are high but the attack isn't by any stretch a failure, its just slower than a lot expected.
Russian military is, however, badly stretched (the variety of forces making up the attack is a giveaway). Russian military defeat on the battlefield is now considered possible, IF the West supports Ukraine properly. Putin needs some city wins to strengthen his hand in negotiations. A failure to get them means he faces a foe that still has incentive to fight on. Putin wants to end the conflict but the hand he has isn't great as of today so he will fight on to an improved bargaining position.
Someone who knows better than me suggested the Ukrainians may have reserves to bring to bear, if they can get them trained & equipped into proper formations but time is of the essence. Russia may have huge reserves on paper but a significant call up is a signal at home that things are going wrong. In a week they may have to bite that bullet and do it anyway…
The quality of Ukraine reserves is quite likely good ? Since the Donbas conflict started, they’ve had 18 month conscription, with hundreds of thousands serving, and significant numbers will have some experience on the Donbas front. Of course organising them while the country is is semi chaos will not be trivial.
Zelensky: "Russian soldiers and officers know they can't win. "They flee the battlefield, abandon their equipment. We take the trophies and use them to protect Ukraine." Says Russia is now "one of the suppliers of equipment for our army."....
*If* we take the equipment losses at the page below seriously, then Russia has 'lost' 214 tanks, of which 96 have been captured by the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians have lost 65, of which 31 have been captured.
It is therefore possible that the Ukrainians have more tanks than they had when the war started. Of course, they're useless without trained crews, and I bet (guess) that tank crews take some time to train. Also, some captured ones will be useless due to damage or missing parts.
Which leads to another question: Ukrainian and Russian tanks are fairly similar (T64, T70, T80-based), given the countries joint history. Do they use the same sort of ammunition?
96 captured, with another 39 "abandoned". not sure how the photographs differentiate between the two. But even if disabled before being abandoned, they will still be handy source of parts and perhaps ammunition (unless the reason they were abandoned was they couldn't get ammo resupplied).
That site also says: "This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here."
Someone has been indulging in an extended & significant disruption of Russian tactical comms around the Kyiv front.
Its a short list of suspects.
Hi Yokes. Any further thoughts on how the war is going to ultimately pan out?
Battlefield wise, Russian losses are high but the attack isn't by any stretch a failure, its just slower than a lot expected.
Russian military is, however, badly stretched (the variety of forces making up the attack is a giveaway). Russian military defeat on the battlefield is now considered possible, IF the West supports Ukraine properly. Putin needs some city wins to strengthen his hand in negotiations. A failure to get them means he faces a foe that still has incentive to fight on. Putin wants to end the conflict but the hand he has isn't great as of today so he will fight on to an improved bargaining position.
Someone who knows better than me suggested the Ukrainians may have reserves to bring to bear, if they can get them trained & equipped into proper formations but time is of the essence. Russia may have huge reserves on paper but a significant call up is a signal at home that things are going wrong. In a week they may have to bite that bullet and do it anyway…
The quality of Ukraine reserves is quite likely good ? Since the Donbas conflict started, they’ve had 18 month conscription, with hundreds of thousands serving, and significant numbers will have some experience on the Donbas front. Of course organising them while the country is is semi chaos will not be trivial.
The main limitation on Ukrainian reserves may be a lack of equipment. Yes they'll have access to NLAWs, etc, but that helps them mainly to fight defensively.
To go on the offensive they'd need heavier equipment.
Yes, with the menfolk of military age prevented from leaving, and many Ukranians having military experience from conscription, there must be a potential pool of several million more fighters, and with morale and motivation high probably of reasonable quality.
What is lacking though must be the command and organisational structures to convert them into competent military units. Relatively easy to organise them into small units ambushing supply routes and infiltrating back areas, but to equip and organise with heavy weapons for offensive operations to take back occupied land is a much bigger task.
To retake land in the south, the Ukranians will need to free up their regular forces, which means forcing a retreat in the North. At the moment stalemate looks more likely.
Multiple demonstrations have taken place over several days in the Russian occupied cities of Kherson, Melitopol and Berdyansk.
Reporting suggests that Russia may seek to stage a “referendum” in Kherson in an attempt to legitimise the area as a “breakaway republic” similar to Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea.
Further protests were reported in the city yesterday with Russian forces reportedly firing warning shots in an attempt to disperse peaceful protesters.
Russia has reportedly installed its own mayor in Melitopol following the alleged abduction of his predecessor on Friday 11 March. Subsequently, the Mayor of Dniprorudne has also reportedly been abducted by Russian forces.
Russia is likely to make further attempts to subvert Ukrainian democracy as it attempts to consolidate political control of Ukraine.
Likely to fail, I think. The Russians don't have enough men to control so large a population. And when it comes down to it, it's far harder to repress people with experience of democracy than those who have lived their whole lives under authoritarian control.
Something that someone who clawed his way to power in a country which has never had real democracy apparently didn't and still doesn't realise.
Yes, this Springs pay round is going to be a very contentious one. Welcome to the Seventies! Cold war, angst over our place in Europe, stagflation and pay disputes. Maybe we will get better music.
Hmm.. Does Russian TV do live broadcasts? But I can't think why they'd stage it.
Anton Shekhovtsov @A_SHEKH0VTS0V A funny info-op meant to make us believe, among many other things, that Russian state-controlled TV ever risks live broadcasting. Everything is pre-planned in Putin’s Russia, ranging from “incidents” to genocidal invasions. Grow up people. https://twitter.com/A_SHEKH0VTS0V/status/1503524280247668736
Multiple demonstrations have taken place over several days in the Russian occupied cities of Kherson, Melitopol and Berdyansk.
Reporting suggests that Russia may seek to stage a “referendum” in Kherson in an attempt to legitimise the area as a “breakaway republic” similar to Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea.
Further protests were reported in the city yesterday with Russian forces reportedly firing warning shots in an attempt to disperse peaceful protesters.
Russia has reportedly installed its own mayor in Melitopol following the alleged abduction of his predecessor on Friday 11 March. Subsequently, the Mayor of Dniprorudne has also reportedly been abducted by Russian forces.
Russia is likely to make further attempts to subvert Ukrainian democracy as it attempts to consolidate political control of Ukraine.
Very thin on detail, no reference to losses by either side, land changing hands or encirclement of troops. Ukraine suffering real losses they don't want to talk about - or delicate stage in negotiations?
Multiple demonstrations have taken place over several days in the Russian occupied cities of Kherson, Melitopol and Berdyansk.
Reporting suggests that Russia may seek to stage a “referendum” in Kherson in an attempt to legitimise the area as a “breakaway republic” similar to Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea.
Further protests were reported in the city yesterday with Russian forces reportedly firing warning shots in an attempt to disperse peaceful protesters.
Russia has reportedly installed its own mayor in Melitopol following the alleged abduction of his predecessor on Friday 11 March. Subsequently, the Mayor of Dniprorudne has also reportedly been abducted by Russian forces.
Russia is likely to make further attempts to subvert Ukrainian democracy as it attempts to consolidate political control of Ukraine.
Likely to fail, I think. The Russians don't have enough men to control so large a population. And when it comes down to it, it's far harder to repress people with experience of democracy than those who have lived their whole lives under authoritarian control.
Something that someone who clawed his way to power in a country which has never had real democracy apparently didn't and still doesn't realise.
I'm a bit more pessimistic on this. When the Syrians arrive and start firing indiscriminately into crowds the prospects for continued mass resistance will look bleaker.
Yes, this Springs pay round is going to be a very contentious one. Welcome to the Seventies! Cold war, angst over our place in Europe, stagflation and pay disputes. Maybe we will get better music.
Talking of which ...
Latest edition of my chart from today's HMRC pay data. Real pay flat over the year. Very weak in recent months in accommodation/food services.
Multiple demonstrations have taken place over several days in the Russian occupied cities of Kherson, Melitopol and Berdyansk.
Reporting suggests that Russia may seek to stage a “referendum” in Kherson in an attempt to legitimise the area as a “breakaway republic” similar to Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea.
Further protests were reported in the city yesterday with Russian forces reportedly firing warning shots in an attempt to disperse peaceful protesters.
Russia has reportedly installed its own mayor in Melitopol following the alleged abduction of his predecessor on Friday 11 March. Subsequently, the Mayor of Dniprorudne has also reportedly been abducted by Russian forces.
Russia is likely to make further attempts to subvert Ukrainian democracy as it attempts to consolidate political control of Ukraine.
Likely to fail, I think. The Russians don't have enough men to control so large a population. And when it comes down to it, it's far harder to repress people with experience of democracy than those who have lived their whole lives under authoritarian control.
Something that someone who clawed his way to power in a country which has never had real democracy apparently didn't and still doesn't realise.
I'm a bit more pessimistic on this. When the Syrians arrive and start firing indiscriminately into crowds the prospects for continued mass resistance will look bleaker.
That might work in a couple of towns. The Syrians are not going to make any appreciable difference in a region as large as Russia currently (semi)controls. Local atrocities will have the opposite effect.
Multiple demonstrations have taken place over several days in the Russian occupied cities of Kherson, Melitopol and Berdyansk.
Reporting suggests that Russia may seek to stage a “referendum” in Kherson in an attempt to legitimise the area as a “breakaway republic” similar to Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea.
Further protests were reported in the city yesterday with Russian forces reportedly firing warning shots in an attempt to disperse peaceful protesters.
Russia has reportedly installed its own mayor in Melitopol following the alleged abduction of his predecessor on Friday 11 March. Subsequently, the Mayor of Dniprorudne has also reportedly been abducted by Russian forces.
Russia is likely to make further attempts to subvert Ukrainian democracy as it attempts to consolidate political control of Ukraine.
Likely to fail, I think. The Russians don't have enough men to control so large a population. And when it comes down to it, it's far harder to repress people with experience of democracy than those who have lived their whole lives under authoritarian control.
Something that someone who clawed his way to power in a country which has never had real democracy apparently didn't and still doesn't realise.
I'm a bit more pessimistic on this. When the Syrians arrive and start firing indiscriminately into crowds the prospects for continued mass resistance will look bleaker.
Those Syrians are going to stand out in Ukraine. A country with many, many sniper rifles.
Yes, this Springs pay round is going to be a very contentious one. Welcome to the Seventies! Cold war, angst over our place in Europe, stagflation and pay disputes. Maybe we will get better music.
Talking of which ...
Latest edition of my chart from today's HMRC pay data. Real pay flat over the year. Very weak in recent months in accommodation/food services.
This makes the important point about corruption in the heart of the tory party, which I acknowledge stretches back into other governments especially that of Tony Blair.
The right wing lynch mob on here who all continually like one another's posts in their echo chamber (Felix, MM, Sandpit, StateAway, BIgG etc.) hate the spotlight to be shone on this but the fact remains that corruption runs deep in the UK. We have traded and supported utterly corrupt, evil, regimes that are not confined to Russia but certainly include Saudi Arabia and Qatar. London has become a magnet for evil money.
How do we solve the energy crisis? Gosh, there's a question from the 1970's. Nuclear power and renewables. Not raping the earth still further. We could all install solar panels and wind turbines and go off-grid. It's not that hard but it requires a lifestyle reset which you might have thought covid would have induced (it has for some).
From Zelensky's speech a temporary measure which should prove popular.
“Instead of VAT & income tax we give you a 2% tax rate and simplified accounting. For small businesses - we set a voluntary payment of a single tax. If you can - pay. You can't - no questions asked,”
This makes the important point about corruption in the heart of the tory party, which I acknowledge stretches back into other governments especially that of Tony Blair.
The right wing lynch mob on here who all continually like one another's posts in their echo chamber (Felix, MM, Sandpit, Foxy, StateAway, JJ, BIgG etc.) hate the spotlight to be shone on this but the fact remains that corruption runs deep in the UK. We have traded and supported utterly corrupt, evil, regimes that are not confined to Russia but certainly include Saudi Arabia and Qatar. London has become a magnet for evil money.
How do we solve the energy crisis? Gosh, there's a question from the 1970's. Nuclear power and renewables. Not raping the earth still further. We could all install solar panels and wind turbines and go off-grid. It's not that hard but it requires a lifestyle reset which you might have thought covid would have induced (it has for some).
This makes the important point about corruption in the heart of the tory party, which I acknowledge stretches back into other governments especially that of Tony Blair.
The right wing lynch mob on here who all continually like one another's posts in their echo chamber (Felix, MM, Sandpit, Foxy, StateAway, JJ, BIgG etc.) hate the spotlight to be shone on this but the fact remains that corruption runs deep in the UK. We have traded and supported utterly corrupt, evil, regimes that are not confined to Russia but certainly include Saudi Arabia and Qatar. London has become a magnet for evil money.
How do we solve the energy crisis? Gosh, there's a question from the 1970's. Nuclear power and renewables. Not raping the earth still further. We could all install solar panels and wind turbines and go off-grid. It's not that hard but it requires a lifestyle reset which you might have thought covid would have induced (it has for some).
I am *not* part of a 'right wing lynch mob'. You might wish to reconsider that.
This makes the important point about corruption in the heart of the tory party, which I acknowledge stretches back into other governments especially that of Tony Blair.
The right wing lynch mob on here who all continually like one another's posts in their echo chamber (Felix, MM, Sandpit, Foxy, StateAway, JJ, BIgG etc.) hate the spotlight to be shone on this but the fact remains that corruption runs deep in the UK. We have traded and supported utterly corrupt, evil, regimes that are not confined to Russia but certainly include Saudi Arabia and Qatar. London has become a magnet for evil money.
How do we solve the energy crisis? Gosh, there's a question from the 1970's. Nuclear power and renewables. Not raping the earth still further. We could all install solar panels and wind turbines and go off-grid. It's not that hard but it requires a lifestyle reset which you might have thought covid would have induced (it has for some).
I am *not* part of a 'right wing lynch mob'. You might wish to reconsider that.
Sorted and with apologies then x
p.s. it was quite difficult yesterday to keep track although Marquee Mark managed to make himself the most unpleasant and obnoxious person of the lynch mob, which is saying something.
Multiple demonstrations have taken place over several days in the Russian occupied cities of Kherson, Melitopol and Berdyansk.
Reporting suggests that Russia may seek to stage a “referendum” in Kherson in an attempt to legitimise the area as a “breakaway republic” similar to Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea.
Further protests were reported in the city yesterday with Russian forces reportedly firing warning shots in an attempt to disperse peaceful protesters.
Russia has reportedly installed its own mayor in Melitopol following the alleged abduction of his predecessor on Friday 11 March. Subsequently, the Mayor of Dniprorudne has also reportedly been abducted by Russian forces.
Russia is likely to make further attempts to subvert Ukrainian democracy as it attempts to consolidate political control of Ukraine.
Likely to fail, I think. The Russians don't have enough men to control so large a population. And when it comes down to it, it's far harder to repress people with experience of democracy than those who have lived their whole lives under authoritarian control.
Something that someone who clawed his way to power in a country which has never had real democracy apparently didn't and still doesn't realise.
I'm a bit more pessimistic on this. When the Syrians arrive and start firing indiscriminately into crowds the prospects for continued mass resistance will look bleaker.
And it will all be caught and played out on the Internet. In the olden days, such atrocities were hidden. These will not be.
This makes the important point about corruption in the heart of the tory party, which I acknowledge stretches back into other governments especially that of Tony Blair.
The right wing lynch mob on here who all continually like one another's posts in their echo chamber (Felix, MM, Sandpit, Foxy, StateAway, JJ, BIgG etc.) hate the spotlight to be shone on this but the fact remains that corruption runs deep in the UK. We have traded and supported utterly corrupt, evil, regimes that are not confined to Russia but certainly include Saudi Arabia and Qatar. London has become a magnet for evil money.
How do we solve the energy crisis? Gosh, there's a question from the 1970's. Nuclear power and renewables. Not raping the earth still further. We could all install solar panels and wind turbines and go off-grid. It's not that hard but it requires a lifestyle reset which you might have thought covid would have induced (it has for some).
I am *not* part of a 'right wing lynch mob'. You might wish to reconsider that.
Multiple demonstrations have taken place over several days in the Russian occupied cities of Kherson, Melitopol and Berdyansk.
Reporting suggests that Russia may seek to stage a “referendum” in Kherson in an attempt to legitimise the area as a “breakaway republic” similar to Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea.
Further protests were reported in the city yesterday with Russian forces reportedly firing warning shots in an attempt to disperse peaceful protesters.
Russia has reportedly installed its own mayor in Melitopol following the alleged abduction of his predecessor on Friday 11 March. Subsequently, the Mayor of Dniprorudne has also reportedly been abducted by Russian forces.
Russia is likely to make further attempts to subvert Ukrainian democracy as it attempts to consolidate political control of Ukraine.
Likely to fail, I think. The Russians don't have enough men to control so large a population. And when it comes down to it, it's far harder to repress people with experience of democracy than those who have lived their whole lives under authoritarian control.
Something that someone who clawed his way to power in a country which has never had real democracy apparently didn't and still doesn't realise.
I'm a bit more pessimistic on this. When the Syrians arrive and start firing indiscriminately into crowds the prospects for continued mass resistance will look bleaker.
What makes it more likely that Syrians will open fire on crowds than Russians? The occupying forces will just be following orders. It seems unlikely that Russia can successfully roll out a strategy involving the massacre and subjugation/enslavement of a country the size of France with 44 million people in it. At present they have close to zero co-operation and public support amongst the Ukranian population, even the Russian speaking parts of it. There is no credible story that they can tell about what they are doing, other than the bizarre one given by Putin, in which he is trying to recreate a lost Greater Russia,albeit with hired Libyan mercenaries and troops borrowed from Syria. It does seem a bit like, after all the years of strategic brilliance and punching above their weight, the Russian bear has fallen in to a trap of its own making.
Grim covid data at the moment. I'm not going to cower before the right-wing lynch mob on here...
Welcome back. I completely agree about the importance of continued data. Lose the hyperbole about lynching, though. It's not surprising that people pile on when you post silly provocative rhetoric.
Yes, this Springs pay round is going to be a very contentious one. Welcome to the Seventies! Cold war, angst over our place in Europe, stagflation and pay disputes. Maybe we will get better music.
Talking of which ...
Latest edition of my chart from today's HMRC pay data. Real pay flat over the year. Very weak in recent months in accommodation/food services.
A fairly silly cartoon. What would your answer be to the energy problem we are facing in the next year?
In the long term, we need to diversify our energy supply so we can cut off these bad/evil regimes. But in the meantime we have to hold our noses. Unless you want massive energy problems over the winter.
(Actually, given it would hurt the government, I can imagine you might salivate at the thought, however many fellow citizens it hurt.)
It’s pretty daft but I’m sure it makes the cartoonist feel better about their life.
Johnson seems to be doing both short and long term planning here. You’re right we need to wean ourselves off these sources of energy. It takes time.
This makes the important point about corruption in the heart of the tory party, which I acknowledge stretches back into other governments especially that of Tony Blair.
The right wing lynch mob on here who all continually like one another's posts in their echo chamber (Felix, MM, Sandpit, Foxy, StateAway, JJ, BIgG etc.) hate the spotlight to be shone on this but the fact remains that corruption runs deep in the UK. We have traded and supported utterly corrupt, evil, regimes that are not confined to Russia but certainly include Saudi Arabia and Qatar. London has become a magnet for evil money.
How do we solve the energy crisis? Gosh, there's a question from the 1970's. Nuclear power and renewables. Not raping the earth still further. We could all install solar panels and wind turbines and go off-grid. It's not that hard but it requires a lifestyle reset which you might have thought covid would have induced (it has for some).
I am *not* part of a 'right wing lynch mob'. You might wish to reconsider that.
One of Putin's little helpers has returned
I don't know if Heathener is one of Putin's little helpers. I do find it hard to work out that poster's exact position though: they seem all over the shop.
This makes the important point about corruption in the heart of the tory party, which I acknowledge stretches back into other governments especially that of Tony Blair.
The right wing lynch mob on here who all continually like one another's posts in their echo chamber (Felix, MM, Sandpit, Foxy, StateAway, JJ, BIgG etc.) hate the spotlight to be shone on this but the fact remains that corruption runs deep in the UK. We have traded and supported utterly corrupt, evil, regimes that are not confined to Russia but certainly include Saudi Arabia and Qatar. London has become a magnet for evil money.
How do we solve the energy crisis? Gosh, there's a question from the 1970's. Nuclear power and renewables. Not raping the earth still further. We could all install solar panels and wind turbines and go off-grid. It's not that hard but it requires a lifestyle reset which you might have thought covid would have induced (it has for some).
I am *not* part of a 'right wing lynch mob'. You might wish to reconsider that.
One of Putin's little helpers has returned
I'm sure you think this is terribly smart, as Marquee Mark's little helper, but I am not a Putin troll. I loathe Putin and unlike you spineless cowards on the right I actually believe in not standing by and letting Putin pulverise Ukraine.
If anyone on here is Putin's little helper it's those who refuse to support Zelensky militarily.
You're a bunch of chickens. More concerned with your own NIMBYism than actually having the courage to stand up to Putin.
p.s. and yes I have been absolutely right on covid all the way along.
I'm surprisingly confident that if Russia and China team up against the West they'll both end up losing, and the West will come out of it stronger than before.
Unless there is a nuclear holocaust in which case nobody will be stronger than before by my understanding of the term
South Africa?
This, ladies and gentlemen, is an excellent example of HYUFD's thought: That the destruction of Western and Eastern countries "strengthens" those not directly destroyed because they would power on up the ranks. Never mind the fact that the biosphere would be a fucking state and the world economy would head backwards a number of centuries. Rank is what matters in HYUFD's Trumpist view, and a negative sum game makes sense if only the others get hurt much more than you do.
HYUFD would cut his leg off if he knew everybody else would lose both legs.
Well the South African President has taken a neutral stance between Russia and NATO not wholly without self interest.
I would prefer him to be in the NATO camp but that is the reality
Given you don't think some countries already in it should have been allowed to join NATO I am surprised you would advocate for others to either join or be allied to it.
I refer you to my earlier post. HYUFD would be happy for South Africa to join because he fancies our chances of beating Eswatini in a war. Russia's a big boy, so we shouldn't meddle. Rank rank rank. Hit the little guy, give your lunch money to the big guy. No need to mess around with principles or whatever.
It is only NATO and the Anglosphere which help us to contain the big boys of Russia and China.
Yes we can defend the Falklands and Gibraltar and deal with Nationalists within our own islands but we cannot contain Putin and Xi alone
I would suggest that Japan and South Korea - neither of which are either NATO nor Anglosphere are very much holding their end up as well.
To an extent but as you say they are not in NATO nor are they in the AUKUS security agreement either
You really are out of touch if you think that AUKUS would take action without the approval and engagement of South Korea and Japan
Explicitly so, in fact. I even linked to the joint announcement from the three leaders for him.
The five power defence agreement sort of does, if you squint, but there’s not the same assumed compulsion to act like there is with NATO. And I’m not sure how real it is for Malaysia or Singapore.
The USA is not even in the five power defence agreement, so that is not of much real use in containing China unlike AUKUS
Honestly you have no clue…
The chances of the US joining another security guarantee like NATO are a million to one. That isn’t what it’s for.
They are far more than that and if China invades Taiwan, which is probably 50 50, I would say it is a near certainty such a NATO of the Southern hemisphere emerges
Have you met the US Senate?
Most of them even more hostile to China than Russia
Yes, but you’re saying they’d ratify a new NATO like treaty. I think that’s extremely unlikely in 2022. They’d probably give all sorts of Taiwan type assurances but not ratify a treaty.
Once Taiwan was invaded, Japan, South Korea etc would be terrified they would be next on the menu for the Chinese shark without a NATO like alliance under US leadership
You don't think that the performance of Russian vs Western weapons in the Ukraine might have just given the Chinese government a little bit of pause?
Taiwan, in comparison to the Ukraine, has a modern airforce of F16s, Dassault Mirage and their indigenous fighter. It's also 150 miles away from China, across open ocean, and Taiwan has submarines.
I'm sure that China *could* win - they are, after all, a genuine superpower. But invading across open ocean against a well defended island is far from childs play.
And given that the Chinese are heavily dependent on Russian designs, if I was Xi, I might be thinking.... hmmm not yet.
This makes the important point about corruption in the heart of the tory party, which I acknowledge stretches back into other governments especially that of Tony Blair.
The right wing lynch mob on here who all continually like one another's posts in their echo chamber (Felix, MM, Sandpit, Foxy, StateAway, JJ, BIgG etc.) hate the spotlight to be shone on this but the fact remains that corruption runs deep in the UK. We have traded and supported utterly corrupt, evil, regimes that are not confined to Russia but certainly include Saudi Arabia and Qatar. London has become a magnet for evil money.
How do we solve the energy crisis? Gosh, there's a question from the 1970's. Nuclear power and renewables. Not raping the earth still further. We could all install solar panels and wind turbines and go off-grid. It's not that hard but it requires a lifestyle reset which you might have thought covid would have induced (it has for some).
I am *not* part of a 'right wing lynch mob'. You might wish to reconsider that.
One of Putin's little helpers has returned
I don't know if Heathener is one of Putin's little helpers. I do find it hard to work out that poster's exact position though: they seem all over the shop.
I find my position very similar to Nicola Sturgeon's actually, right down to Scottish independence
I don't believe we should self-centredly and selfishly stand by and let Ukraine get pulverised. We should install a No Fly Zone and stand up to Putin militarily.
The people who won't help Ukraine militarily are doing so in order to save their own skins. Yes there are risks involved but this is likely to escalate anyway. We have to support the people of Ukraine on the ground and in the air. We should have done so from the outset. Instead we have been too frit to act.
Brave, given the way the Russians are throwing missiles at the place. Admirable allies.
And Good Morning everybody. Good to see Heathener hasn't flounced, although I agree with Mr kjh that anyone who views Dr F as 'right-wing' must wear some very strange political glasses.
This makes the important point about corruption in the heart of the tory party, which I acknowledge stretches back into other governments especially that of Tony Blair.
The right wing lynch mob on here who all continually like one another's posts in their echo chamber (Felix, MM, Sandpit, StateAway, BIgG etc.) hate the spotlight to be shone on this but the fact remains that corruption runs deep in the UK. We have traded and supported utterly corrupt, evil, regimes that are not confined to Russia but certainly include Saudi Arabia and Qatar. London has become a magnet for evil money.
How do we solve the energy crisis? Gosh, there's a question from the 1970's. Nuclear power and renewables. Not raping the earth still further. We could all install solar panels and wind turbines and go off-grid. It's not that hard but it requires a lifestyle reset which you might have thought covid would have induced (it has for some).
Is everyone ‘right wing lynch mob’ who disagrees with you ?
To install solar and wind turbines as well as moving away from gas boilers will require a lot of skilled personnel to design/make/fit out these products and as part of that you will still need to ‘rape’ the earth to get the products to enable you to do that. It will also take years to do.
For the time being we need oil and gas and in the Long term we will need them but less of them.
India's elite used to be Western focused. All those Congress party leaders in the post war era were Oxbridge educated etc. And Western Universities still hold a strong attraction to this day. But Modi's rise has created a much stronger form of Hindu nationalism. I'd argue that more people in India are anti western and anti British now than anytime in the recent past..
Anecdotal I know I've noticed a strong rise of online Hindu nationalist comments where ever anything British is discussed. For example a walking video in London on Youtube is usually full of London is so pretty and clean and then up will pop , Some one banging on about it all being looted from Bengal and then often gets quite nasty. Can be on anything UK railways , politics culture what ever , if one Indian says something nice, then pretty much guaranteed to have a comment spitting venom about the UK.
Congress are pretty anti British. The most anti Empire politicians in India tend to be from Congress. Gandhi of course was Congress and led the push for Indian independence.
Modi gets on quite well with Boris however and the BJP pushed for its supporters in the UK to campaign for the Tories over Labour in 2019
This makes the important point about corruption in the heart of the tory party, which I acknowledge stretches back into other governments especially that of Tony Blair.
The right wing lynch mob on here who all continually like one another's posts in their echo chamber (Felix, MM, Sandpit, Foxy, StateAway, JJ, BIgG etc.) hate the spotlight to be shone on this but the fact remains that corruption runs deep in the UK. We have traded and supported utterly corrupt, evil, regimes that are not confined to Russia but certainly include Saudi Arabia and Qatar. London has become a magnet for evil money.
How do we solve the energy crisis? Gosh, there's a question from the 1970's. Nuclear power and renewables. Not raping the earth still further. We could all install solar panels and wind turbines and go off-grid. It's not that hard but it requires a lifestyle reset which you might have thought covid would have induced (it has for some).
I am *not* part of a 'right wing lynch mob'. You might wish to reconsider that.
One of Putin's little helpers has returned
I'm sure you think this is terribly smart, as Marquee Mark's little helper, but I am not a Putin troll. I loathe Putin and unlike you spineless cowards on the right I actually believe in not standing by and letting Putin pulverise Ukraine.
If anyone on here is Putin's little helper it's those who refuse to support Zelensky militarily.
You're a bunch of chickens. More concerned with your own NIMBYism than actually having the courage to stand up to Putin.
p.s. and yes I have been absolutely right on covid all the way along.
So support Zelenskyy militarily. Send us a selfie from Kyiv and we'll talk. I am sure someone with your military Intel background would be welcome over there. Until that happens you are just one more gammon bloviating from an armchair
This makes the important point about corruption in the heart of the tory party, which I acknowledge stretches back into other governments especially that of Tony Blair.
The right wing lynch mob on here who all continually like one another's posts in their echo chamber (Felix, MM, Sandpit, Foxy, StateAway, JJ, BIgG etc.) hate the spotlight to be shone on this but the fact remains that corruption runs deep in the UK. We have traded and supported utterly corrupt, evil, regimes that are not confined to Russia but certainly include Saudi Arabia and Qatar. London has become a magnet for evil money.
How do we solve the energy crisis? Gosh, there's a question from the 1970's. Nuclear power and renewables. Not raping the earth still further. We could all install solar panels and wind turbines and go off-grid. It's not that hard but it requires a lifestyle reset which you might have thought covid would have induced (it has for some).
I am *not* part of a 'right wing lynch mob'. You might wish to reconsider that.
One of Putin's little helpers has returned
I'm sure you think this is terribly smart, as Marquee Mark's little helper, but I am not a Putin troll. I loathe Putin and unlike you spineless cowards on the right I actually believe in not standing by and letting Putin pulverise Ukraine.
If anyone on here is Putin's little helper it's those who refuse to support Zelensky militarily.
You're a bunch of chickens. More concerned with your own NIMBYism than actually having the courage to stand up to Putin.
p.s. and yes I have been absolutely right on covid all the way along.
Boris is the most supportive leader militarily for Ukraine and is held in high esteem by President Zelenskyy
You throw out insults branding people on the right which is patently untrue and try to goad the UK and NATO into WW111
As for covid you have been wrong from day one
If you want people to take you seriously cut out the abuse to other posters
This makes the important point about corruption in the heart of the tory party, which I acknowledge stretches back into other governments especially that of Tony Blair.
The right wing lynch mob on here who all continually like one another's posts in their echo chamber (Felix, MM, Sandpit, Foxy, StateAway, JJ, BIgG etc.) hate the spotlight to be shone on this but the fact remains that corruption runs deep in the UK. We have traded and supported utterly corrupt, evil, regimes that are not confined to Russia but certainly include Saudi Arabia and Qatar. London has become a magnet for evil money.
How do we solve the energy crisis? Gosh, there's a question from the 1970's. Nuclear power and renewables. Not raping the earth still further. We could all install solar panels and wind turbines and go off-grid. It's not that hard but it requires a lifestyle reset which you might have thought covid would have induced (it has for some).
Foxy right wing?
@Foxy opens the day for PB with a rousing rendition of the "Panzerlied". 6am, every morning.
This makes the important point about corruption in the heart of the tory party, which I acknowledge stretches back into other governments especially that of Tony Blair.
The right wing lynch mob on here who all continually like one another's posts in their echo chamber (Felix, MM, Sandpit, StateAway, BIgG etc.) hate the spotlight to be shone on this but the fact remains that corruption runs deep in the UK. We have traded and supported utterly corrupt, evil, regimes that are not confined to Russia but certainly include Saudi Arabia and Qatar. London has become a magnet for evil money.
How do we solve the energy crisis? Gosh, there's a question from the 1970's. Nuclear power and renewables. Not raping the earth still further. We could all install solar panels and wind turbines and go off-grid. It's not that hard but it requires a lifestyle reset which you might have thought covid would have induced (it has for some).
Is everyone ‘right wing lynch mob’ who disagrees with you ?
.
Nope. But there's a particular coterie of right-wingers who all like one another's posts and who turn extremely nasty against counter viewpoints, especially ones which seek to shine a light on western corruption.
Apparently even to dare to suggest that there's stinking corrupt money sloshing around the tory party, and in London, is to become a Putin puppet.
The much more subtle point, which may therefore be lost on them, is that evil people often take grains of truth and then magnify them or twist them. Conspiracy theories do a similar thing. The fact is that there is very dirty money in London and has been for some years. Of particular focus should be Russia, Saudi Arabia and Qatar but it's not confined to those three corrupt states.
I know a lot of people who have it or those around them who do, and hospitals are filling up again.
It hasn't gone away and it's not good. We need data and continued restrictions.
Why? Covid has an IFR less than seasonal flu. Do you propose anti-flu restrictions? It makes sense to continue to spread natural immunity while the current variant is so mild, either innately or because of the level of natural and vaccine-derived immunity in the community.
I know a lot of people who have it or those around them who do, and hospitals are filling up again.
It hasn't gone away and it's not good. We need data and continued restrictions.
Hospitals filling up again? Evidence. The UK Covid death rate post vaccination is still tiny.
No we do not need more continued restrictions destroying our hospitality industry just after it had begin to recover again
Latest UK daily stats show:
Deaths 100 R=1 i.e. low and steady Ventilators 250 R=1 i.e. low and steady but Cases 60,000 R=1.5 i.e. rising rapidly Admissions 1,350 R=1.2 In Hospital 12,000 R=1.13
I know a lot of people who have it or those around them who do, and hospitals are filling up again.
It hasn't gone away and it's not good. We need data and continued restrictions.
Hospitals filling up again? Evidence. The UK Covid death rate post vaccination is still tiny.
No we do not need more continued restrictions destroying our hospitality industry just after it had begin to recover again
Hospitals are filling up again, but every bit as much in Scotland as in England which, once again, raises a lot of questions about the efficacy of the present restrictions. More importantly though, we have come to terms with the idea that Covid is going to be endemic and that we cannot live half lives cowering away. Our economy simply cannot sustain that, nor can it generate the revenues needed for medical services.
At my work we are back to 20% of time in the office this month, 40% next and 60% the month after at which point there will be a review. I think it is unlikely most staff will get back to 100% pre-Covid levels but i wouldn't rule it out.
We have had this debate and Boris has broadly won. We are not going back to major restrictions whilst death rates remain extremely low. Whether Sturgeon insists on her policy of differentiation will be disclosed today.
This makes the important point about corruption in the heart of the tory party, which I acknowledge stretches back into other governments especially that of Tony Blair.
The right wing lynch mob on here who all continually like one another's posts in their echo chamber (Felix, MM, Sandpit, Foxy, StateAway, JJ, BIgG etc.) hate the spotlight to be shone on this but the fact remains that corruption runs deep in the UK. We have traded and supported utterly corrupt, evil, regimes that are not confined to Russia but certainly include Saudi Arabia and Qatar. London has become a magnet for evil money.
How do we solve the energy crisis? Gosh, there's a question from the 1970's. Nuclear power and renewables. Not raping the earth still further. We could all install solar panels and wind turbines and go off-grid. It's not that hard but it requires a lifestyle reset which you might have thought covid would have induced (it has for some).
I am *not* part of a 'right wing lynch mob'. You might wish to reconsider that.
One of Putin's little helpers has returned
I don't know if Heathener is one of Putin's little helpers. I do find it hard to work out that poster's exact position though: they seem all over the shop.
I find my position very similar to Nicola Sturgeon's actually, right down to Scottish independence
I don't believe we should self-centredly and selfishly stand by and let Ukraine get pulverised. We should install a No Fly Zone and stand up to Putin militarily.
The people who won't help Ukraine militarily are doing so in order to save their own skins. Yes there are risks involved but this is likely to escalate anyway. We have to support the people of Ukraine on the ground and in the air. We should have done so from the outset. Instead we have been too frit to act.
India's elite used to be Western focused. All those Congress party leaders in the post war era were Oxbridge educated etc. And Western Universities still hold a strong attraction to this day. But Modi's rise has created a much stronger form of Hindu nationalism. I'd argue that more people in India are anti western and anti British now than anytime in the recent past..
Anecdotal I know I've noticed a strong rise of online Hindu nationalist comments where ever anything British is discussed. For example a walking video in London on Youtube is usually full of London is so pretty and clean and then up will pop , Some one banging on about it all being looted from Bengal and then often gets quite nasty. Can be on anything UK railways , politics culture what ever , if one Indian says something nice, then pretty much guaranteed to have a comment spitting venom about the UK.
Congress are pretty anti British. The most anti Empire politicians in India tend to be from Congress. Gandhi of course was Congress and led the push for Indian independence.
Modi gets on quite well with Boris however and the BJP pushed for its supporters in the UK to campaign for the Tories over Labour in 2019
I'd much rather India had a Congress government, anti-British..... because they were the colonial power ..... or not, than the semi (?) Fascist, violently anti Hindu BJP. That our current PM 'gets on well with Modi' suggests the sort of man he really is.
A quarter of the men, and a third of the tanks taken out so far.
The reason I mind those figures difficult to believe, is that those kind of loses would suggest the Russian military units assigned to the invasions are, essentially, hors de combat. 30%+ loses usually mean a unit is stuffed, don't they?
This makes the important point about corruption in the heart of the tory party, which I acknowledge stretches back into other governments especially that of Tony Blair.
The right wing lynch mob on here who all continually like one another's posts in their echo chamber (Felix, MM, Sandpit, StateAway, BIgG etc.) hate the spotlight to be shone on this but the fact remains that corruption runs deep in the UK. We have traded and supported utterly corrupt, evil, regimes that are not confined to Russia but certainly include Saudi Arabia and Qatar. London has become a magnet for evil money.
How do we solve the energy crisis? Gosh, there's a question from the 1970's. Nuclear power and renewables. Not raping the earth still further. We could all install solar panels and wind turbines and go off-grid. It's not that hard but it requires a lifestyle reset which you might have thought covid would have induced (it has for some).
Is everyone ‘right wing lynch mob’ who disagrees with you ?
.
Nope. But there's a particular coterie of right-wingers who all like one another's posts and who turn extremely nasty against counter viewpoints, especially ones which seek to shine a light on western corruption.
Apparently even to dare to suggest that there's stinking corrupt money sloshing around the tory party, and in London, is to become a Putin puppet.
The much more subtle point, which may therefore be lost on them, is that evil people often take grains of truth and then magnify them or twist them. Conspiracy theories do a similar thing. The fact is that there is very dirty money in London and has been for some years. Of particular focus should be Russia, Saudi Arabia and Qatar but it's not confined to those three corrupt states.
I think we have identified the only Boris hater in the village
This makes the important point about corruption in the heart of the tory party, which I acknowledge stretches back into other governments especially that of Tony Blair.
The right wing lynch mob on here who all continually like one another's posts in their echo chamber (Felix, MM, Sandpit, Foxy, StateAway, JJ, BIgG etc.) hate the spotlight to be shone on this but the fact remains that corruption runs deep in the UK. We have traded and supported utterly corrupt, evil, regimes that are not confined to Russia but certainly include Saudi Arabia and Qatar. London has become a magnet for evil money.
How do we solve the energy crisis? Gosh, there's a question from the 1970's. Nuclear power and renewables. Not raping the earth still further. We could all install solar panels and wind turbines and go off-grid. It's not that hard but it requires a lifestyle reset which you might have thought covid would have induced (it has for some).
I am *not* part of a 'right wing lynch mob'. You might wish to reconsider that.
One of Putin's little helpers has returned
I don't know if Heathener is one of Putin's little helpers. I do find it hard to work out that poster's exact position though: they seem all over the shop.
Glad that @Heathener is back. It is true that a lot of the wealth generated in Britain is based on a sly accommodation with various forms of global corruption, and so the idea that Britain is a malign influence in this respect has some credence. Not sure that Foxy, BigG or anyone else can be fairly be described as being in a right wing lynch mob though.
I know a lot of people who have it or those around them who do, and hospitals are filling up again.
It hasn't gone away and it's not good. We need data and continued restrictions.
Hospitals filling up again? Evidence. The UK Covid death rate post vaccination is still tiny.
No we do not need more continued restrictions destroying our hospitality industry just after it had begin to recover again
Hospitals are filling up again, but every bit as much in Scotland as in England which, once again, raises a lot of questions about the efficacy of the present restrictions. More importantly though, we have come to terms with the idea that Covid is going to be endemic and that we cannot live half lives cowering away. Our economy simply cannot sustain that, nor can it generate the revenues needed for medical services.
At my work we are back to 20% of time in the office this month, 40% next and 60% the month after at which point there will be a review. I think it is unlikely most staff will get back to 100% pre-Covid levels but i wouldn't rule it out.
We have had this debate and Boris has broadly won. We are not going back to major restrictions whilst death rates remain extremely low. Whether Sturgeon insists on her policy of differentiation will be disclosed today.
If we do go back to significant restrictions with the Covid death rate still low it would destroy many pubs, cafes, bars and nightclubs and non essential shops which have only just started to rebuild their revenues and customer base after all the lost profits from the lockdowns.
The resultant surge in unemployment is not worth it. Post vaccination we learn to live with the virus and get on with it
I know a lot of people who have it or those around them who do, and hospitals are filling up again.
It hasn't gone away and it's not good. We need data and continued restrictions.
Hospitals filling up again? Evidence. The UK Covid death rate post vaccination is still tiny.
No we do not need more continued restrictions destroying our hospitality industry just after it had begin to recover again
Hospitals are filling up again, but every bit as much in Scotland as in England which, once again, raises a lot of questions about the efficacy of the present restrictions. More importantly though, we have come to terms with the idea that Covid is going to be endemic and that we cannot live half lives cowering away. Our economy simply cannot sustain that, nor can it generate the revenues needed for medical services.
At my work we are back to 20% of time in the office this month, 40% next and 60% the month after at which point there will be a review. I think it is unlikely most staff will get back to 100% pre-Covid levels but i wouldn't rule it out.
We have had this debate and Boris has broadly won. We are not going back to major restrictions whilst death rates remain extremely low. Whether Sturgeon insists on her policy of differentiation will be disclosed today.
It seems that the current iteration of Covid is so infectious that restrictions actually capable of doing any good would effectively shut down the economy. I think in those circumstances more people would die due to the NHS becoming even harder to access than would die from Covid iteself.
No matter what happens, there is going to be an awful to of work required in the LNG world. Regas trains, ships, maybe even reversing pipelines to distribute gas across Europe.
Austenitic stainless steels (such as 316L) aside from their corrosion resistance have the nice property of getting stronger at LNG temperatures. Which is why they get used in LNG equipment, a lot. So
- people who make austenitic stainless steels will be having a good year - people who manufacture LNG pipe and equipment, ditto - people who build the ships (build time 2+ years, normally, though), ditto - people who can weld stainless will be happy - it's a bit of a specialist skill, to the quality required.
I know a lot of people who have it or those around them who do, and hospitals are filling up again.
It hasn't gone away and it's not good. We need data and continued restrictions.
Hospitals filling up again? Evidence. The UK Covid death rate post vaccination is still tiny.
No we do not need more continued restrictions destroying our hospitality industry just after it had begin to recover again
Hospitals are filling up again, but every bit as much in Scotland as in England which, once again, raises a lot of questions about the efficacy of the present restrictions. More importantly though, we have come to terms with the idea that Covid is going to be endemic and that we cannot live half lives cowering away. Our economy simply cannot sustain that, nor can it generate the revenues needed for medical services.
At my work we are back to 20% of time in the office this month, 40% next and 60% the month after at which point there will be a review. I think it is unlikely most staff will get back to 100% pre-Covid levels but i wouldn't rule it out.
We have had this debate and Boris has broadly won. We are not going back to major restrictions whilst death rates remain extremely low. Whether Sturgeon insists on her policy of differentiation will be disclosed today.
It seems that the current iteration of Covid is so infectious that restrictions actually capable of doing any good would effectively shut down the economy. I think in those circumstances more people would die due to the NHS becoming even harder to access than would die from Covid iteself.
That says exactly what I was trying to say rather more succinctly. TINA to getting on with something approaching normal life.
A quarter of the men, and a third of the tanks taken out so far.
The reason I mind those figures difficult to believe, is that those kind of loses would suggest the Russian military units assigned to the invasions are, essentially, hors de combat. 30%+ loses usually mean a unit is stuffed, don't they?
The real numbers are likely to be lower than what the Ukranians are claiming, but not by a lot. The Russians are struggling to make much more ground over the past few days, are struggling terribly to get supplies to their front lines, and have reduced almost to nothing the cruise missiles and air strikes that were common in the early stages of the war.
Multiple demonstrations have taken place over several days in the Russian occupied cities of Kherson, Melitopol and Berdyansk.
Reporting suggests that Russia may seek to stage a “referendum” in Kherson in an attempt to legitimise the area as a “breakaway republic” similar to Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea.
Further protests were reported in the city yesterday with Russian forces reportedly firing warning shots in an attempt to disperse peaceful protesters.
Russia has reportedly installed its own mayor in Melitopol following the alleged abduction of his predecessor on Friday 11 March. Subsequently, the Mayor of Dniprorudne has also reportedly been abducted by Russian forces.
Russia is likely to make further attempts to subvert Ukrainian democracy as it attempts to consolidate political control of Ukraine.
Likely to fail, I think. The Russians don't have enough men to control so large a population. And when it comes down to it, it's far harder to repress people with experience of democracy than those who have lived their whole lives under authoritarian control.
Something that someone who clawed his way to power in a country which has never had real democracy apparently didn't and still doesn't realise.
I'm a bit more pessimistic on this. When the Syrians arrive and start firing indiscriminately into crowds the prospects for continued mass resistance will look bleaker.
What makes it more likely that Syrians will open fire on crowds than Russians? The occupying forces will just be following orders. It seems unlikely that Russia can successfully roll out a strategy involving the massacre and subjugation/enslavement of a country the size of France with 44 million people in it. At present they have close to zero co-operation and public support amongst the Ukranian population, even the Russian speaking parts of it. There is no credible story that they can tell about what they are doing, other than the bizarre one given by Putin, in which he is trying to recreate a lost Greater Russia,albeit with hired Libyan mercenaries and troops borrowed from Syria. It does seem a bit like, after all the years of strategic brilliance and punching above their weight, the Russian bear has fallen in to a trap of its own making.
Well, Syrians fired on crowds of Syrians during the Arab Spring, and they won't speak the same language as the people they're firing on in Ukraine. I think it will be a lot easier for Syrians to fire on crowds of civilians in Ukraine then it would be for Russians.
And they may also be more likely to do so without orders, on the basis that they will find the crowds more threatening, not being able to understand the language.
This makes the important point about corruption in the heart of the tory party, which I acknowledge stretches back into other governments especially that of Tony Blair.
The right wing lynch mob on here who all continually like one another's posts in their echo chamber (Felix, MM, Sandpit, Foxy, StateAway, JJ, BIgG etc.) hate the spotlight to be shone on this but the fact remains that corruption runs deep in the UK. We have traded and supported utterly corrupt, evil, regimes that are not confined to Russia but certainly include Saudi Arabia and Qatar. London has become a magnet for evil money.
How do we solve the energy crisis? Gosh, there's a question from the 1970's. Nuclear power and renewables. Not raping the earth still further. We could all install solar panels and wind turbines and go off-grid. It's not that hard but it requires a lifestyle reset which you might have thought covid would have induced (it has for some).
I am *not* part of a 'right wing lynch mob'. You might wish to reconsider that.
One of Putin's little helpers has returned
I'm sure you think this is terribly smart, as Marquee Mark's little helper, but I am not a Putin troll. I loathe Putin and unlike you spineless cowards on the right I actually believe in not standing by and letting Putin pulverise Ukraine.
If anyone on here is Putin's little helper it's those who refuse to support Zelensky militarily.
You're a bunch of chickens. More concerned with your own NIMBYism than actually having the courage to stand up to Putin.
p.s. and yes I have been absolutely right on covid all the way along.
You've been absolutely wrong on Israel and vaccination for a start.
I know a lot of people who have it or those around them who do, and hospitals are filling up again.
It hasn't gone away and it's not good. We need data and continued restrictions.
Hospitals filling up again? Evidence. The UK Covid death rate post vaccination is still tiny.
No we do not need more continued restrictions destroying our hospitality industry just after it had begin to recover again
Latest UK daily stats show:
Deaths 100 R=1 i.e. low and steady Ventilators 250 R=1 i.e. low and steady but Cases 60,000 R=1.5 i.e. rising rapidly Admissions 1,350 R=1.2 In Hospital 12,000 R=1.13
COVID restrictions are finished now. Efforts are better focused on new COVID treatments, where good progress is being made, and a coherent programme of ongoing booster vaccinations which will probably be tied in to the flu vaccination programme.
I know a lot of people who have it or those around them who do, and hospitals are filling up again.
It hasn't gone away and it's not good. We need data and continued restrictions.
Hospitals filling up again? Evidence. The UK Covid death rate post vaccination is still tiny.
No we do not need more continued restrictions destroying our hospitality industry just after it had begin to recover again
Hospitals are filling up again, but every bit as much in Scotland as in England which, once again, raises a lot of questions about the efficacy of the present restrictions. More importantly though, we have come to terms with the idea that Covid is going to be endemic and that we cannot live half lives cowering away. Our economy simply cannot sustain that, nor can it generate the revenues needed for medical services.
At my work we are back to 20% of time in the office this month, 40% next and 60% the month after at which point there will be a review. I think it is unlikely most staff will get back to 100% pre-Covid levels but i wouldn't rule it out.
We have had this debate and Boris has broadly won. We are not going back to major restrictions whilst death rates remain extremely low. Whether Sturgeon insists on her policy of differentiation will be disclosed today.
If we do go back to significant restrictions with the Covid death rate still low it would destroy many pubs, cafes, bars and nightclubs and non essential shops which have only just started to rebuild their revenues and customer base after all the lost profits from the lockdowns.
The resultant surge in unemployment is not worth it. Post vaccination we learn to live with the virus and get on with it
Yep, there is a pretty broad consensus on this and it is getting broader all the time. Those who are particularly vulnerable need help and compassion but the vast majority need to get on with life again.
This makes the important point about corruption in the heart of the tory party, which I acknowledge stretches back into other governments especially that of Tony Blair.
The right wing lynch mob on here who all continually like one another's posts in their echo chamber (Felix, MM, Sandpit, Foxy, StateAway, JJ, BIgG etc.) hate the spotlight to be shone on this but the fact remains that corruption runs deep in the UK. We have traded and supported utterly corrupt, evil, regimes that are not confined to Russia but certainly include Saudi Arabia and Qatar. London has become a magnet for evil money.
How do we solve the energy crisis? Gosh, there's a question from the 1970's. Nuclear power and renewables. Not raping the earth still further. We could all install solar panels and wind turbines and go off-grid. It's not that hard but it requires a lifestyle reset which you might have thought covid would have induced (it has for some).
I am *not* part of a 'right wing lynch mob'. You might wish to reconsider that.
One of Putin's little helpers has returned
I don't know if Heathener is one of Putin's little helpers. I do find it hard to work out that poster's exact position though: they seem all over the shop.
I find my position very similar to Nicola Sturgeon's actually, right down to Scottish independence
I don't believe we should self-centredly and selfishly stand by and let Ukraine get pulverised. We should install a No Fly Zone and stand up to Putin militarily.
The people who won't help Ukraine militarily are doing so in order to save their own skins. Yes there are risks involved but this is likely to escalate anyway. We have to support the people of Ukraine on the ground and in the air. We should have done so from the outset. Instead we have been too frit to act.
So you support a position of abandoning our nuclear deterrent, and declaring war on Russia?
I commented yesterday that this is surely not a serious position. It falls apart under scrutiny, as has been obvious in recent TV interviews with the Scottish government. It seems more like a cynical attempt to support two popular policies, for electoral gain, safe in the knowledge that you have no significant influence on events, and don't have to make any real decisions.
Were the SNP a bit smarter, they could have used the war as an opportunity to demonstrate their seriousness about government, in the same way that Starmer has in opposition at Westminster. Holding the NATO line, and downplaying the 'scrap trident' commitment. Instead Holyrood looks like an insignificant sixth form college talking shop.
I have suggested that this will actually make independence less likely. It puts people off in England who are receptive to the idea of Scottish independence - like myself. I have also suggested it could have a similar effect in Scotland. I did ask a few days ago what @Farooq made of all this - but don't think I got any answer.
I know a lot of people who have it or those around them who do, and hospitals are filling up again.
It hasn't gone away and it's not good. We need data and continued restrictions.
Hospitals filling up again? Evidence. The UK Covid death rate post vaccination is still tiny.
No we do not need more continued restrictions destroying our hospitality industry just after it had begin to recover again
Hospitals are filling up again, but every bit as much in Scotland as in England which, once again, raises a lot of questions about the efficacy of the present restrictions. More importantly though, we have come to terms with the idea that Covid is going to be endemic and that we cannot live half lives cowering away. Our economy simply cannot sustain that, nor can it generate the revenues needed for medical services.
At my work we are back to 20% of time in the office this month, 40% next and 60% the month after at which point there will be a review. I think it is unlikely most staff will get back to 100% pre-Covid levels but i wouldn't rule it out.
We have had this debate and Boris has broadly won. We are not going back to major restrictions whilst death rates remain extremely low. Whether Sturgeon insists on her policy of differentiation will be disclosed today.
It seems that the current iteration of Covid is so infectious that restrictions actually capable of doing any good would effectively shut down the economy. I think in those circumstances more people would die due to the NHS becoming even harder to access than would die from Covid iteself.
The evidence is that Omicron is so infectious that trying to stop it with lockdowns doesn't work.
Hence New Zealand - which has been saved from a ugly situation by the excellent roll out of the vaccine.
China is looking at a very ugly situation - they have a huge number of unprotected, elderly and are not using the high end vaccines.
This makes the important point about corruption in the heart of the tory party, which I acknowledge stretches back into other governments especially that of Tony Blair.
The right wing lynch mob on here who all continually like one another's posts in their echo chamber (Felix, MM, Sandpit, StateAway, BIgG etc.) hate the spotlight to be shone on this but the fact remains that corruption runs deep in the UK. We have traded and supported utterly corrupt, evil, regimes that are not confined to Russia but certainly include Saudi Arabia and Qatar. London has become a magnet for evil money.
How do we solve the energy crisis? Gosh, there's a question from the 1970's. Nuclear power and renewables. Not raping the earth still further. We could all install solar panels and wind turbines and go off-grid. It's not that hard but it requires a lifestyle reset which you might have thought covid would have induced (it has for some).
Is everyone ‘right wing lynch mob’ who disagrees with you ?
.
Nope. But there's a particular coterie of right-wingers who all like one another's posts and who turn extremely nasty against counter viewpoints, especially ones which seek to shine a light on western corruption.
Apparently even to dare to suggest that there's stinking corrupt money sloshing around the tory party, and in London, is to become a Putin puppet.
The much more subtle point, which may therefore be lost on them, is that evil people often take grains of truth and then magnify them or twist them. Conspiracy theories do a similar thing. The fact is that there is very dirty money in London and has been for some years. Of particular focus should be Russia, Saudi Arabia and Qatar but it's not confined to those three corrupt states.
I don't think that a call for more Covid restrictions requires any more response than "Lol, no" at this stage.
I am still struggling to convince my wife that the danger has passed. I'm beginning to think that she won't accept it until she has caught the virus and recovered from it.
I know a lot of people who have it or those around them who do, and hospitals are filling up again.
It hasn't gone away and it's not good. We need data and continued restrictions.
Hospitals filling up again? Evidence. The UK Covid death rate post vaccination is still tiny.
No we do not need more continued restrictions destroying our hospitality industry just after it had begin to recover again
Latest UK daily stats show:
Deaths 100 R=1 i.e. low and steady Ventilators 250 R=1 i.e. low and steady but Cases 60,000 R=1.5 i.e. rising rapidly Admissions 1,350 R=1.2 In Hospital 12,000 R=1.13
So a death rate of just 0.16% per Covid case now
I am going to get a second baseball bat with nails in, for those who refuse to understand that cases lead hospitalisation which leads deaths.
You can't compare cases on day x with deaths on day x.
This makes the important point about corruption in the heart of the tory party, which I acknowledge stretches back into other governments especially that of Tony Blair.
The right wing lynch mob on here who all continually like one another's posts in their echo chamber (Felix, MM, Sandpit, Foxy, StateAway, JJ, BIgG etc.) hate the spotlight to be shone on this but the fact remains that corruption runs deep in the UK. We have traded and supported utterly corrupt, evil, regimes that are not confined to Russia but certainly include Saudi Arabia and Qatar. London has become a magnet for evil money.
How do we solve the energy crisis? Gosh, there's a question from the 1970's. Nuclear power and renewables. Not raping the earth still further. We could all install solar panels and wind turbines and go off-grid. It's not that hard but it requires a lifestyle reset which you might have thought covid would have induced (it has for some).
I am *not* part of a 'right wing lynch mob'. You might wish to reconsider that.
One of Putin's little helpers has returned
I'm sure you think this is terribly smart, as Marquee Mark's little helper, but I am not a Putin troll. I loathe Putin and unlike you spineless cowards on the right I actually believe in not standing by and letting Putin pulverise Ukraine.
If anyone on here is Putin's little helper it's those who refuse to support Zelensky militarily.
You're a bunch of chickens. More concerned with your own NIMBYism than actually having the courage to stand up to Putin.
p.s. and yes I have been absolutely right on covid all the way along.
Multiple demonstrations have taken place over several days in the Russian occupied cities of Kherson, Melitopol and Berdyansk.
Reporting suggests that Russia may seek to stage a “referendum” in Kherson in an attempt to legitimise the area as a “breakaway republic” similar to Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea.
Further protests were reported in the city yesterday with Russian forces reportedly firing warning shots in an attempt to disperse peaceful protesters.
Russia has reportedly installed its own mayor in Melitopol following the alleged abduction of his predecessor on Friday 11 March. Subsequently, the Mayor of Dniprorudne has also reportedly been abducted by Russian forces.
Russia is likely to make further attempts to subvert Ukrainian democracy as it attempts to consolidate political control of Ukraine.
Likely to fail, I think. The Russians don't have enough men to control so large a population. And when it comes down to it, it's far harder to repress people with experience of democracy than those who have lived their whole lives under authoritarian control.
Something that someone who clawed his way to power in a country which has never had real democracy apparently didn't and still doesn't realise.
I'm a bit more pessimistic on this. When the Syrians arrive and start firing indiscriminately into crowds the prospects for continued mass resistance will look bleaker.
What makes it more likely that Syrians will open fire on crowds than Russians? The occupying forces will just be following orders. It seems unlikely that Russia can successfully roll out a strategy involving the massacre and subjugation/enslavement of a country the size of France with 44 million people in it. At present they have close to zero co-operation and public support amongst the Ukranian population, even the Russian speaking parts of it. There is no credible story that they can tell about what they are doing, other than the bizarre one given by Putin, in which he is trying to recreate a lost Greater Russia,albeit with hired Libyan mercenaries and troops borrowed from Syria. It does seem a bit like, after all the years of strategic brilliance and punching above their weight, the Russian bear has fallen in to a trap of its own making.
Well, Syrians fired on crowds of Syrians during the Arab Spring, and they won't speak the same language as the people they're firing on in Ukraine. I think it will be a lot easier for Syrians to fire on crowds of civilians in Ukraine then it would be for Russians.
And they may also be more likely to do so without orders, on the basis that they will find the crowds more threatening, not being able to understand the language.
This type of occupation is a recipe for disaster. The occupiers will be outnumbered by the population, who also have guns and molotov cocktails.
I'm in my seventies and Covid is done. It's merged into the background and I suspect I'd all but ignore any more lock-down. My brother is only a year younger but he suffers from COPD and will keep taking precautions. I'll keep taking the flu jab, the relatively new shingles one, and any new Covid booster if recommended but that's it.
No point copying Wee Jimmy - she's only trying to be different for the sake of it. Covid is now so last year.
This makes the important point about corruption in the heart of the tory party, which I acknowledge stretches back into other governments especially that of Tony Blair.
The right wing lynch mob on here who all continually like one another's posts in their echo chamber (Felix, MM, Sandpit, Foxy, StateAway, JJ, BIgG etc.) hate the spotlight to be shone on this but the fact remains that corruption runs deep in the UK. We have traded and supported utterly corrupt, evil, regimes that are not confined to Russia but certainly include Saudi Arabia and Qatar. London has become a magnet for evil money.
How do we solve the energy crisis? Gosh, there's a question from the 1970's. Nuclear power and renewables. Not raping the earth still further. We could all install solar panels and wind turbines and go off-grid. It's not that hard but it requires a lifestyle reset which you might have thought covid would have induced (it has for some).
I am *not* part of a 'right wing lynch mob'. You might wish to reconsider that.
One of Putin's little helpers has returned
I don't know if Heathener is one of Putin's little helpers. I do find it hard to work out that poster's exact position though: they seem all over the shop.
I find my position very similar to Nicola Sturgeon's actually, right down to Scottish independence
I don't believe we should self-centredly and selfishly stand by and let Ukraine get pulverised. We should install a No Fly Zone and stand up to Putin militarily.
The people who won't help Ukraine militarily are doing so in order to save their own skins. Yes there are risks involved but this is likely to escalate anyway. We have to support the people of Ukraine on the ground and in the air. We should have done so from the outset. Instead we have been too frit to act.
And I believe that is completely misguided.
Any attempt to impose a no fly zone would immediately give credibility to Putin's claims about NATO's aggressive expansionary designs. It would very likely shore up his domestic support - the erosion of which makes more likely the peace negotiations. it would also be of limited use to Ukraine. Unless we start flying combat missions against Russian ground forces it would make little difference to Ukraine's ground attack capability, most of which is provided by their Turkish drones, which seem to have no difficulty in operating in a hostile air environment. And the bulk of Russia's offensive capability has been on the ground, not in the air.
Against that you have to set the immense risk of a tactical, or even full scale nuclear confrontation.
If you're throwing around random accusations of cowardice, then I'll happily say that you are being completely foolhardy.
I'm in my seventies and Covid is done. It's merged into the background and I suspect I'd all but ignore any more lock-down. My brother is only a year younger but he suffers from COPD and will keep taking precautions. I'll keep taking the flu jab, the relatively new shingles one, and any new Covid booster if recommended but that's it.
No point copying Wee Jimmy - she's only trying to be different for the sake of it. Covid is now so last year.
The really good news to come up is the forthcoming mRNA vaccines for flu.
If the rumours I have heard are vaguely true, they are going to be extremely effective against the severe medical effects of flu. Which would save a huge number of lives each year.
We are now seemingly back in the absolutely ludicrous position where, as soon as case numbers rise, the threads are clogged with zerocovidians aggressively calling for restrictions. Despite all the evidence that a) no viable restrictions work against omicron and b) the risks from covid to the individual are now lower than influenza.
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It’s going to be very ugly.
https://twitter.com/mattia_n/status/1503439298581999622
A longer thread 🧵 on the alarming situation in #Ukraine's occupied southeast. The developments are fluid and both alarming and inspiring.
What we are seeing there is the attempt to set up Stalin-like police states (dressed as "People's Republics"). Worst is yet to come. /1
But there will be general lessons to be learned.
It also looks more and more like Russia is ruined, over the long term, and this conflict will hasten its decline. This is the other tragedy here. Why couldn't it have become a major power in a greater, allied Europe, after 1990? Hard to avoid the conclusion that the country has simply been ruined by the 'corrupt dictatorship' form of government.
It might be that modern equipment massively favours the defenders. Perhaps. And 'modern' hit-and-run techniques by partisans, the same. And whilst at attacker could destroy an entire area, killing everyone within it, modern communications means that the world gets to know.
It is therefore possible that the Ukrainians have more tanks than they had when the war started. Of course, they're useless without trained crews, and I bet (guess) that tank crews take some time to train. Also, some captured ones will be useless due to damage or missing parts.
Which leads to another question: Ukrainian and Russian tanks are fairly similar (T64, T70, T80-based), given the countries joint history. Do they use the same sort of ammunition?
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
In the long term, we need to diversify our energy supply so we can cut off these bad/evil regimes. But in the meantime we have to hold our noses. Unless you want massive energy problems over the winter.
(Actually, given it would hurt the government, I can imagine you might salivate at the thought, however many fellow citizens it hurt.)
To go on the offensive they'd need heavier equipment.
Multiple demonstrations have taken place over several days in the Russian occupied cities of Kherson, Melitopol and Berdyansk.
Reporting suggests that Russia may seek to stage a “referendum” in Kherson in an attempt to legitimise the area as a “breakaway republic” similar to Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea.
Further protests were reported in the city yesterday with Russian forces reportedly firing warning shots in an attempt to disperse peaceful protesters.
Russia has reportedly installed its own mayor in Melitopol following the alleged abduction of his predecessor on Friday 11 March. Subsequently, the Mayor of Dniprorudne has also reportedly been abducted by Russian forces.
Russia is likely to make further attempts to subvert Ukrainian democracy as it attempts to consolidate political control of Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1503613213006565377
That site also says: "This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here."
What is lacking though must be the command and organisational structures to convert them into competent military units. Relatively easy to organise them into small units ambushing supply routes and infiltrating back areas, but to equip and organise with heavy weapons for offensive operations to take back occupied land is a much bigger task.
To retake land in the south, the Ukranians will need to free up their regular forces, which means forcing a retreat in the North. At the moment stalemate looks more likely.
16.9% pay rise for councillors branded 'obscene' amid cost of living crisis
https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/169-pay-rise-conwy-councillors-23386077#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare
https://twitter.com/JournoStephen/status/1503358550537605121
The Russians don't have enough men to control so large a population. And when it comes down to it, it's far harder to repress people with experience of democracy than those who have lived their whole lives under authoritarian control.
Something that someone who clawed his way to power in a country which has never had real democracy apparently didn't and still doesn't realise.
(Usual disclaimer about fog of war, but US intelligence reports have suggested the Ukranian figures are actually pretty accurate).
https://www.minusrus.com/en/
A quarter of the men, and a third of the tanks taken out so far.
https://mobile.twitter.com/AlexGabuev/status/1503607893672742913
Latest edition of my chart from today's HMRC pay data. Real pay flat over the year. Very weak in recent months in accommodation/food services.
https://twitter.com/jdportes/status/1503634214054506497?t=3J2aDLR3-P6UNDPQ3GzvSA&s=19
And
What's happened to pay distribution/inequality over the pandemic?
Not much overall; but compared to 2 years ago, highest pay growth is for the 99th percentile (up 12%), lowest for bottom 10% (up 9%).
https://t.co/w5t2cmdg6y
Local atrocities will have the opposite effect.
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-cases-up-nearly-50-week-on-week-as-expert-accuses-ministers-of-wanting-to-get-rid-of-data-and-move-on-12566355
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-60736253
I know a lot of people who have it or those around them who do, and hospitals are filling up again.
It hasn't gone away and it's not good. We need data and continued restrictions.
Like in Scotland?
How's that working out?
Somethings never change
https://mobile.twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1503635646086549510
Alternative headline: “Pay rises keeping pace with inflation”.
The right wing lynch mob on here who all continually like one another's posts in their echo chamber (Felix, MM, Sandpit, StateAway, BIgG etc.) hate the spotlight to be shone on this but the fact remains that corruption runs deep in the UK. We have traded and supported utterly corrupt, evil, regimes that are not confined to Russia but certainly include Saudi Arabia and Qatar. London has become a magnet for evil money.
How do we solve the energy crisis? Gosh, there's a question from the 1970's. Nuclear power and renewables. Not raping the earth still further. We could all install solar panels and wind turbines and go off-grid. It's not that hard but it requires a lifestyle reset which you might have thought covid would have induced (it has for some).
Was toying with a Haas points bet, but the odds are a rather stingy 3.5. At the moment, anyway.
“Instead of VAT & income tax we give you a 2% tax rate and simplified accounting. For small businesses - we set a voluntary payment of a single tax. If you can - pay. You can't - no questions asked,”
p.s. it was quite difficult yesterday to keep track although Marquee Mark managed to make himself the most unpleasant and obnoxious person of the lynch mob, which is saying something.
Each way patent
Hms Seahorse 9/1 16:50 Cheltenham
Floueur 7/1 14:50 Cheltenham
Blue Lord 9/2 14:10 Cheltenham
@stodge @MoonRabbit
The occupying forces will just be following orders. It seems unlikely that Russia can successfully roll out a strategy involving the massacre and subjugation/enslavement of a country the size of France with 44 million people in it.
At present they have close to zero co-operation and public support amongst the Ukranian population, even the Russian speaking parts of it.
There is no credible story that they can tell about what they are doing, other than the bizarre one given by Putin, in which he is trying to recreate a lost Greater Russia,albeit with hired Libyan mercenaries and troops borrowed from Syria.
It does seem a bit like, after all the years of strategic brilliance and punching above their weight, the Russian bear has fallen in to a trap of its own making.
Lose the hyperbole about lynching, though. It's not surprising that people pile on when you post silly provocative rhetoric.
Until quite recently, pay rises just keeping up with inflation was an abomination that BoJo was going to fix.
And there's a whole pile of inflation and tax increase still to hit.
It’s pretty daft but I’m sure it makes the cartoonist feel better about their life.
Johnson seems to be doing both short and long term planning here. You’re right we need to wean ourselves off these sources of energy. It takes time.
If anyone on here is Putin's little helper it's those who refuse to support Zelensky militarily.
You're a bunch of chickens. More concerned with your own NIMBYism than actually having the courage to stand up to Putin.
p.s. and yes I have been absolutely right on covid all the way along.
No we do not need more continued restrictions destroying our hospitality industry just after it had begin to recover again
Apple's new M1 Ultra chip looks like a beast. I give Apple a lot of stick (rightly, IMO), but their chip-design team are absolutely first-class.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QVqjMVJL8I
I don't believe we should self-centredly and selfishly stand by and let Ukraine get pulverised. We should install a No Fly Zone and stand up to Putin militarily.
The people who won't help Ukraine militarily are doing so in order to save their own skins. Yes there are risks involved but this is likely to escalate anyway. We have to support the people of Ukraine on the ground and in the air. We should have done so from the outset. Instead we have been too frit to act.
And Good Morning everybody. Good to see Heathener hasn't flounced, although I agree with Mr kjh that anyone who views Dr F as 'right-wing' must wear some very strange political glasses.
To install solar and wind turbines as well as moving away from gas boilers will require a lot of skilled personnel to design/make/fit out these products and as part of that you will still need to ‘rape’ the earth to get the products to enable you to do that. It will also take years to do.
For the time being we need oil and gas and in the Long term we will need them but less of them.
Modi gets on quite well with Boris however and the BJP pushed for its supporters in the UK to campaign for the Tories over Labour in 2019
You throw out insults branding people on the right which is patently untrue and try to goad the UK and NATO into WW111
As for covid you have been wrong from day one
If you want people to take you seriously cut out the abuse to other posters
Apparently even to dare to suggest that there's stinking corrupt money sloshing around the tory party, and in London, is to become a Putin puppet.
The much more subtle point, which may therefore be lost on them, is that evil people often take grains of truth and then magnify them or twist them. Conspiracy theories do a similar thing. The fact is that there is very dirty money in London and has been for some years. Of particular focus should be Russia, Saudi Arabia and Qatar but it's not confined to those three corrupt states.
Deaths 100 R=1 i.e. low and steady
Ventilators 250 R=1 i.e. low and steady
but
Cases 60,000 R=1.5 i.e. rising rapidly
Admissions 1,350 R=1.2
In Hospital 12,000 R=1.13
At my work we are back to 20% of time in the office this month, 40% next and 60% the month after at which point there will be a review. I think it is unlikely most staff will get back to 100% pre-Covid levels but i wouldn't rule it out.
We have had this debate and Boris has broadly won. We are not going back to major restrictions whilst death rates remain extremely low. Whether Sturgeon insists on her policy of differentiation will be disclosed today.
My grandchildren ask do we have a say in it
That our current PM 'gets on well with Modi' suggests the sort of man he really is.
The resultant surge in unemployment is not worth it. Post vaccination we learn to live with the virus and get on with it
No matter what happens, there is going to be an awful to of work required in the LNG world. Regas trains, ships, maybe even reversing pipelines to distribute gas across Europe.
Austenitic stainless steels (such as 316L) aside from their corrosion resistance have the nice property of getting stronger at LNG temperatures. Which is why they get used in LNG equipment, a lot. So
- people who make austenitic stainless steels will be having a good year
- people who manufacture LNG pipe and equipment, ditto
- people who build the ships (build time 2+ years, normally, though), ditto
- people who can weld stainless will be happy - it's a bit of a specialist skill, to the quality required.
And they may also be more likely to do so without orders, on the basis that they will find the crowds more threatening, not being able to understand the language.
I commented yesterday that this is surely not a serious position. It falls apart under scrutiny, as has been obvious in recent TV interviews with the Scottish government. It seems more like a cynical attempt to support two popular policies, for electoral gain, safe in the knowledge that you have no significant influence on events, and don't have to make any real decisions.
Were the SNP a bit smarter, they could have used the war as an opportunity to demonstrate their seriousness about government, in the same way that Starmer has in opposition at Westminster. Holding the NATO line, and downplaying the 'scrap trident' commitment. Instead Holyrood looks like an insignificant sixth form college talking shop.
I have suggested that this will actually make independence less likely. It puts people off in England who are receptive to the idea of Scottish independence - like myself. I have also suggested it could have a similar effect in Scotland. I did ask a few days ago what @Farooq made of all this - but don't think I got any answer.
Hence New Zealand - which has been saved from a ugly situation by the excellent roll out of the vaccine.
China is looking at a very ugly situation - they have a huge number of unprotected, elderly and are not using the high end vaccines.
See the horrible situation in Hong Kong.
I am still struggling to convince my wife that the danger has passed. I'm beginning to think that she won't accept it until she has caught the virus and recovered from it.
You can't compare cases on day x with deaths on day x.
No point copying Wee Jimmy - she's only trying to be different for the sake of it. Covid is now so last year.
Any attempt to impose a no fly zone would immediately give credibility to Putin's claims about NATO's aggressive expansionary designs. It would very likely shore up his domestic support - the erosion of which makes more likely the peace negotiations.
it would also be of limited use to Ukraine. Unless we start flying combat missions against Russian ground forces it would make little difference to Ukraine's ground attack capability, most of which is provided by their Turkish drones, which seem to have no difficulty in operating in a hostile air environment. And the bulk of Russia's offensive capability has been on the ground, not in the air.
Against that you have to set the immense risk of a tactical, or even full scale nuclear confrontation.
If you're throwing around random accusations of cowardice, then I'll happily say that you are being completely foolhardy.
If the rumours I have heard are vaguely true, they are going to be extremely effective against the severe medical effects of flu. Which would save a huge number of lives each year.
When will this ever end?