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Almost halfway through March and still no CON poll lead – politicalbetting.com
Almost halfway through March and still no CON poll lead – politicalbetting.com
One of the more interesting bets that will see an outcome this month is the above from Smarkets on whether the Tories are are going to get a poll lead in March.
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@visegrad24
There are laws which forbid fighting in foreign units. But the situation is unique.
Our neighbour is defending his sovereignty. We know what that’s like, we understand it.
As President (…) I can say:
If you feel in your hearts the need to help Ukrainians in their fight, go!
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1503505096755363841
What seems random is when multiple leaders are on the same call.
See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AUKUS
The five power defence agreement sort of does, if you squint, but there’s not the same assumed compulsion to act like there is with NATO. And I’m not sure how real it is for Malaysia or Singapore.
“Today, it’s premature to say that the Russian army is bogged down or losing in Ukraine because of its sustainment issues. The Russian military is likely to overcome its logistical and maintenance challenges once captured railroads become operational.”
https://mwi.usma.edu/russias-logistical-problems-may-slow-down-russias-advance-but-they-are-unlikely-to-stop-it/
I found this article amusing: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-ben-wallace-fought-securocrats-to-donate-uks-tank-busting-weapons-to-ukraine-zz05m28g2?shareToken=b76b9cb573b66f9c15259e9f958511f3
Not only does it reinforce how well Wallace has done, but Zelenskyy can clearly read Johnson like a book:
While British commanders call the NLAWs “en-laws” the Ukrainians pronounce the word “en-love”, a factor that has given rise to light-hearted exchanges between Johnson and President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Two weeks ago, the Ukrainian leader serenaded Johnson with the song When You’re Young and N-Love and then a bastardised Beatles rendition of All You Need Is N-Love. Last week Zelensky told Johnson, in one of their daily phone calls, that Ukrainian soldiers shout “God Save the Queen” when they fire the weapon.
The deployment of the weapons has been important for the prime minister since he has also had several conversations with Zelensky, including a “long, agonised one” on Wednesday evening, about why Britain cannot back a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Defence chiefs believe the move would be either largely ineffective or liable to draw the armed forces into direct conflict with the Russians.
Instead Johnson has privately vowed to do as much as possible short of a no-fly zone. “We must strengthen your position as much as we can,” he told Zelensky last week. The UK has also sent body armour and laser range sighting equipment, in addition to the plans for Starstreak, which will deter Russian aircraft from flying at night.
AUKUS is a procurement deal dressed up as a security alliance. Not terribly significant.
There is no Pacific NATO. There are various treaties which keep the main pro-US powers (ie Australia, Japan, South Korea) formally and informally allied.
The UK tries to keep its hand in. France - as always - tries to maintain a little distance from the US. India even more so.
Following AUKUS, I do expect France (and the EU) and India to get closer as a “third pole”.
Of course, he's speaking to everyone he can, and multiple conversations with several of them, but that is pretty frequent.
It is far from clear - given the losses sustained so far - that the Russian problems are merely the difficulty of getting fuel, food, armor and ammunition to the frontline. It is entirely possible, given how quickly offensive operations chew through equipment and ammo, that they are beginning to run short.
And it is certainly the case that Russia is expending its capital and soldiers at a far greater than replacement rate. What we don't know is (a) how long this can continue for (i.e. the reserves Russia has), and (b) how long the Ukrainians can continue fighting.
The chances of the US joining another security guarantee like NATO are a million to one. That isn’t what it’s for.
Indeed Singapore and Malaysia would not wish to be part of something perceived as containing China; Singapore especially prizes it’s independence as the regions leading entrepôt (especially with HK in decline).
It’s more joint training and perhaps some tech sharing.
Canada has become a bit like NZ.
Dove-ish, and happy to hide behind others.
If AUKUS expands (big if), Japan would be first in line.
UK and Japan share interesting commonalities as the US’s primary allies in their respective regions.
China however concerns it far more due to territorial disputes
My son had his first experience at the helm of the all weather Shannon class lifeboat tonight in an exercise
Russia is now clearly in China's camp
Russia may be clearly dependent on China, but China is not clearly dependent on Russia so the interconnection is not as strong, obvious or pre-determined as you think.
Those are the instincts of its elite
But it would obstinately refuse to choose, for as long as it could
Taiwan, in comparison to the Ukraine, has a modern airforce of F16s, Dassault Mirage and their indigenous fighter. It's also 150 miles away from China, across open ocean, and Taiwan has submarines.
I'm sure that China *could* win - they are, after all, a genuine superpower. But invading across open ocean against a well defended island is far from childs play.
And given that the Chinese are heavily dependent on Russian designs, if I was Xi, I might be thinking.... hmmm not yet.
On China, Trump is even more of a hawk than Biden
"India looks to bail out Putin as it considers taking up Moscow's offer to buy crude oil at a reduced rate amid Western sanctions."
"India is latest country to offer a sanction-busting lifeline to Russia, joining China."
China is getting richer via trade with the West. It is nowhere near rich or powerful enough yet to feel confident it can prosper without this
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10611333/India-looks-bail-Russia-considers-taking-Moscows-offer-buy-crude-oil-discount.html
And if it did happen, why would that make the US want to create a defensive treaty? It either would or wouldn’t act - it would be way too late for treaties.
They are preserving a studied non-alignment, and in this case they can get cheap oil thereby.
But it also wants to avoid nuclear proliferation in its backyard.
So they are conflicted. I also think they will have been utterly shocked at how poorly Russia's armed forces have performed, which will be concerning to them as an awful lot of their kit is just lightly rebranded Russian stuff.
This is a particular issue for their airforce, where nearly half their total force of fighters are either Mig-21 or Su-27 copies (600 jets out of maybe 700). Of course, that will change with the Chengdu J-20... of which they have about 20 planes in service.
The double standards are as usual, hilarious.
In fact, China has done a “good” job of surrounding India with Chinese allies: not just Pakistan but also Sri Lanka and Burma.
Not sure where Bangladesh is in the mix.
Anton Shekhovtsov
@A_SHEKH0VTS0V
A funny info-op meant to make us believe, among many other things, that Russian state-controlled TV ever risks live broadcasting. Everything is pre-planned in Putin’s Russia, ranging from “incidents” to genocidal invasions. Grow up people.
https://twitter.com/A_SHEKH0VTS0V/status/1503524280247668736
Its a short list of suspects.
Anecdotal I know I've noticed a strong rise of online Hindu nationalist comments where ever anything British is discussed. For example a walking video in London on Youtube is usually full of London is so pretty and clean and then up will pop , Some one banging on about it all being looted from Bengal and then often gets quite nasty. Can be on anything UK railways , politics culture what ever , if one Indian says something nice, then pretty much guaranteed to have a comment spitting venom about the UK.
@christogrozev
The idiots tried to use the Era cryptophones in Kharkiv, after destroying many 3g cell towers and also replacing others with stingrays. Era needs 3g/4g to communicate.
The Russian army is equipped with secure phones that can't work in areas where the Russian army operates.
https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1500978613113524229
I hope we are having a good clear out of these "securocrats".
Russian military is, however, badly stretched (the variety of forces making up the attack is a giveaway). Russian military defeat on the battlefield is now considered possible, IF the West supports Ukraine properly. Putin needs some city wins to strengthen his hand in negotiations. A failure to get them means he faces a foe that still has incentive to fight on. Putin wants to end the conflict but the hand he has isn't great as of today so he will fight on to an improved bargaining position.
Someone who knows better than me suggested the Ukrainians may have reserves to bring to bear, if they can get them trained & equipped into proper formations but time is of the essence. Russia may have huge reserves on paper but a significant call up is a signal at home that things are going wrong. In a week they may have to bite that bullet and do it anyway.
The still short odds scenario is well established; Russia grinds out some headline success but they do not have enough troops, nor local support to occupy & manage the populous. They haven't yet sussed out how to deal with that other than they would prefer not to have to occupy it themselves. The outcome therefore, ironically stemming from military success, may be really quite crappy.
I think the economic warfare of the West is going to be the biggest factor in putting Putin back in his box and forcing an end to the conflict. They are rumoured to be looking at further measures & need to go to the limit on the economic measures. The less palatable alternative, if they do not, is eventual Western military intervention of some kind. Some capitals have faced up to that scenario already so its not as way out as the public statements suggest. If they don't crush the Russian economy what are they going to do, just give up? Too deep in.
One last note. An awful lot of talking going with the Swedes and Finns right now. Rumours that something on NATO and them is coming but neither government has briefed to that effect.
As far as roads are concerned, there’s not a single bridge left north or west of Kiev that hasn’t been demolished by one side or the other, the routes into the city are through the mud and through rivers, then residential streets, one at a time.
Thankfully, what looks like a relatively quiet night last night. Lots of street fighting on the outskirts of Kiev, but not many missiles or heavy artillery. Hopefully supply problems for the enemy.
That said, seriously looking at getting the father-in-law out of there now, while there’s still a safe route out West to Poland.
Regarding your final sentence, unlike you, Magdalena Andersson is a crystal clear communicator.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/magdalena-andersson-sager-nej-till-nato-medlemskap
I note that her party is doing well in the polls. No coincidence.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/14/us/russia-ukraine-weapons-decoy.html
This war does put India in a difficult position, having Russia as India's main weapons supplier if Russia becomes very dependent on China doesn't look so attractive.
In the long run, I think this war makes future large-scale conflict much harder for *any* country. We have seen the UK/west humiliated in Afghanistan (and less so) Iraq; and now Russia are finding Ukraine a much harder nut to crack than expected.
These are supposed tier-one militaries against tier-two or tier-three militaries; in the case of Afghanistan, we were not really fighting a 'military' in any coherent sense of the word. Yet despite billions of dollars, pounds and roubles being thrown at the battles, they were in many ways defeats (Iraq probably being the most 'successful').
In the case of Afghanistan and Iraq, US military might 'won' the war quickly. What was lost was the occupation afterwards: and I see no reason why Ukraine will not be the same for Russia, just as Afghanistan was in the 1980s. Especially as they are finding the initial 'conquering' difficult.
I'm not proclaiming the 'end of war': that would be stupid, and the small-scale Azerbaijan/Armenia war in 2020 seeing the aggressor win thanks to a massive amount of help from a powerful neighbour.
However, I think it makes any country think twice or thrice before committing to military action - especially if they have been kidding themselves about their martial prowess and materials.
The simple fact is that Russia does not have time on its side. A quick, crushing victory was absolutely core to its plans because, as we are seeing, the Russian economy is vulnerable to economic sanctions. Success wasn’t to be judged in military terms alone; in fact, success was to be judged by how quickly Russia could “win”. Hence the massive invasion on multiple fronts.
So Russia has failed. Massively.
(Could write far more but need to feed the dogs)
Of course organising them while the country is is semi chaos will not be trivial.
Another fine speech from Zelensky last night, with some signals about the ongoing negotiations.
https://twitter.com/zoyashef/status/1503541165702139904
For Ukraine it is a defensive action, and one that is existential. They are also getting lots of good weaponry - and it seems better kit than the Russians have.
So a real question is how many reserves (men and material) the Ukrainians have in the west of the country - either full-time troops or those in training. And as far as I can tell they've been very quiet about that. There might be many, or very few.