Boris Johnson is turning away Ukranian refugees to appease his anti-immigrant base support and shore up votes for the next election, according to a former Conservative minister.
Don't believe that. It is bound to take time for a department entirely focused on bureaucratic impediments and built on a default disbelief of any story, no matter how compelling and vouched, to an open door policy. And this starts from the top.
On the positive side a client my daughter was helping through her charity work got refugee status yesterday. He and his family were here from Aleppo (seriously). It took the system more than 2 years to give him that status which allows him to work. In Syria he was a qualified doctor. Everyone loses from a system like that.
Mr. Roberts, something I saw which raised a smile the other day was an extinct species of plant being brought back to life after seeds in a clay jar from millennia ago were discovered:
So whilst I get that the right are delighted that Bercow has been found to be a bully and disgraced, I am confused as to how the same people can also be delighted that Patel has been found to be a bully and remains Home Secretary.
Standards apply equally or they are not standards.
I am not delighted about Patel
She is a hopeless minister and not fit for purpose
But Bercow was an utter embarrassment in his media interviews yesterday
Good riddance and I hope you are not suggesting that you are disappointed in the finding
Thread on Putin’s “Mafia State” and why that will heighten the impact of sanctions:
Let's discuss Russian economy. Many underestimate its dependency upon technological import. Russia's so deeply integrated into Western technological chains that severing these ties will lead to its collapse. Sanctions are already effective and can be made even more efficient🧵
I’d call them complimentary rather than contrary - Putin’s mafia state is based on extractive industries which the oligarchs dominate. Russian manufacturing on the other hand relies almost completely on imports - there’s an amusing story about a bureaucrat who got promoted for creating a “Russian” tractor - all they did was import it in kit form. The manufacturing economy will already be struggling, and extractive industries will shortly follow.
Sanctions can reinforce a leader though, as with Saddam. When all essentials are rationed, those in charge of the rationing have a lot of control.
True but he's already reinforced and at least then he'll be reinforced as leader of an economic backwater that is isolated and a reduced threat to others, like North Korea.
The 'hard' problem is this: it is not all about Putin. His leadership and regime is supported by a vast majority. What we are seeing is in part the will of the people. In the end, the will and resolve of its people, and their imperial delusions and claims over large parts of Europe, have to be broken. I think it is an error to think that this is necessarily over if/when Putin and Lavrov get removed.
In a way, yes.
But in a way, no.
Putin's regime has spent two decades demolishing press freedoms in Russia. The media has slowly become the regime's mouthpiece - or else. Therefore much of the Russian public is fed Putin's worldview, and not any opposing view.
The situation is what it is. People are protesting against Putin's regime, but they are a minority. Even if it is a significant minority, it is still a minority. There are deeper nationalist forces at play. It feels a bit like China 3 decades ago and Tiannamen Square - a country decisively moving in one direction. Of course we have sympathy for the 'losers' in such a scenario, but it shouldn't impact on how we view the threat from the regime.
There are big differences, though. China wasn't prosecuting a war of aggression which it was in danger of losing. Nor was its economy collapsing as a result of western sanctions. And there was no real opposition within the existing state structure (Navalny and his followers).
FWIW I was reading the comments of a British expat working out in Russia (who is keeping his head down and hoping to stay out there) on another forum; his take is that there is tremendous support for Putin amongst Russians, based on their proud nationalism and obsession with WWII as great as ours. He reckons that when the truth (about the casualties and lack of military success) finally reaches Russians, rather than blame Putin they'll mostly blame the West, and we'll be in a new cold war.
Russians respect a strong guy, and have great admiration for their military, but what happens when that strong guy has been shown to be a failure, and the military has been shown as a failure?
What will do for Putin is when the dots are joined - when their military has been shown to have failed because the equipment failed, directly as a result of Putin and his kleptocracy stealing the billions set aside for that equipment.
.@EmmanuelMacron first round poll lead is now the highest seen in a 🇫🇷 presidential election since 1965 - the first direct presidential election of the 5th Republic
While I agree Macron has had a good crisis, simultaneously supporting Ukraine while listening to Putin's bullshit, that polling is also bullshit.
That is, he's in the low 30s, and his lead is a consequence of him facing the seven dwarves.
Banned from Parliament, Bercow is now seeking to be the French President?
If only Bercow could find a boss who thought bullying is fine if the boss assumes that the bully is not aware their actions were harmful, and rather than disciplinary action, would ask colleagues to form a square around the Bercster to protect him instead.
On topic - the arguments about this go back to Pinochet and beyond.
Remember in the world we live, the terrorists of NI are specifically protected from prosecution - because they have made it clear that is the one thing that would get them away from their 6 figure salaries and back to the Armalites... The occasionally exception is jailed for an old offence - those are the ones that don't have friends anymore.
What is one more deal with one more devil?
The problem is getting him to take such an "out" - he will, following the pattern of all such leaders, have got to the stage of identifying himself with the State. The destruction of Putin, according to Putin, will mean the destruction of Russia.
In a way, it is true. The Greater Russia he and his ilk propose cannot live in peace with it's neighbours - the whole point of GR is that it doesn't live in *peace* with its neighbours. More, that they live in fear.
It is quite clear that the acceptable results, for the West (and probably Ukraine) are either Russia gives up it's Imperial ambitions in Ukraine, or that Ukraine is given military guarantees. These guarantees would have to be of the level of what Israel gets from the US.
To a Greater Russian Nationalist, either situation is unacceptable. So, the price of peace is the end of Greater Russian Nationalism dominating Russian politics.....
The price of peace also requires Russia accepting it's true position in the world - and given that that position is now economically way worse than it was even 2 weeks ago that isn't going to be something they are likely to do.
The 'hard' problem is this: it is not all about Putin. His leadership and regime is supported by a vast majority. What we are seeing is in part the will of the people. In the end, the will and resolve of its people, and their imperial delusions and claims over large parts of Europe, have to be broken. I think it is an error to think that this is necessarily over if/when Putin and Lavrov get removed.
In a way, yes.
But in a way, no.
Putin's regime has spent two decades demolishing press freedoms in Russia. The media has slowly become the regime's mouthpiece - or else. Therefore much of the Russian public is fed Putin's worldview, and not any opposing view.
The situation is what it is. People are protesting against Putin's regime, but they are a minority. Even if it is a significant minority, it is still a minority. There are deeper nationalist forces at play. It feels a bit like China 3 decades ago and Tiannamen Square - a country decisively moving in one direction. Of course we have sympathy for the 'losers' in such a scenario, but it shouldn't impact on how we view the threat from the regime.
There are big differences, though. China wasn't prosecuting a war of aggression which it was in danger of losing. Nor was its economy collapsing as a result of western sanctions. And there was no real opposition within the existing state structure (Navalny and his followers).
FWIW I was reading the comments of a British expat working out in Russia (who is keeping his head down and hoping to stay out there) on another forum; his take is that there is tremendous support for Putin amongst Russians, based on their proud nationalism and obsession with WWII as great as ours. He reckons that when the truth (about the casualties and lack of military success) finally reaches Russians, rather than blame Putin they'll mostly blame the West, and we'll be in a new cold war.
Russians respect a strong guy, and have great admiration for their military, but what happens when that strong guy has been shown to be a failure, and the military has been shown as a failure?
What will do for Putin is when the dots are joined - when their military has been shown to have failed because the equipment failed, directly as a result of Putin and his kleptocracy stealing the billions set aside for that equipment.
Those dots are already being joined in the west, but will they ever be on Putin's state media?
Morning all. Just for a change from the more important news, has this rather nice report been flagged up? Impressive photos by way of a taster for more to come.
"The wreck of Sir Ernest Shackleton’s ship has been found off the coast of Antarctica, according to the Falklands Maritime Heritage Trust.
Endurance had not been seen since it was crushed by ice and sank in the Weddell Sea in 1915, and last month the Endurance22 Expedition set off from Cape Town, South Africa, a month after the 100th anniversary of Shackleton’s death on a mission to locate it.
Endurance was found at a depth of 3,008 metres and approximately four miles south of the position originally recorded by the ship’s captain, Frank Worsley, the trust said."
“For scientific discovery, give me Scott; for speed and efficiency of travel, give me Amundsen; but when you are in a hopeless situation, when you are seeing no way out, get down on your knees and pray for Shackleton”
A Norwegian who knew what he was doing vs two different flavours of British idiot. Scott didn't do any science, he just took scientists along with him, and killed everybody with him by pushing on past the point of no return because he was desperate for a k and a pension. Shackleton's first choice of skipper turned him down because Endurance wasn't a proper ship, just a gentleman's yacht built for fannying about in the Arctic, and just not up to the job. OK well done for sorting the situation but minus several thousand for getting into it in the first place
Morning all. Just for a change from the more important news, has this rather nice report been flagged up? Impressive photos by way of a taster for more to come.
"The wreck of Sir Ernest Shackleton’s ship has been found off the coast of Antarctica, according to the Falklands Maritime Heritage Trust.
Endurance had not been seen since it was crushed by ice and sank in the Weddell Sea in 1915, and last month the Endurance22 Expedition set off from Cape Town, South Africa, a month after the 100th anniversary of Shackleton’s death on a mission to locate it.
Endurance was found at a depth of 3,008 metres and approximately four miles south of the position originally recorded by the ship’s captain, Frank Worsley, the trust said."
Exceptional. I thought the chances of them finding it were pretty slim.
On topic - the arguments about this go back to Pinochet and beyond.
Remember in the world we live, the terrorists of NI are specifically protected from prosecution - because they have made it clear that is the one thing that would get them away from their 6 figure salaries and back to the Armalites... The occasionally exception is jailed for an old offence - those are the ones that don't have friends anymore.
What is one more deal with one more devil?
The problem is getting him to take such an "out" - he will, following the pattern of all such leaders, have got to the stage of identifying himself with the State. The destruction of Putin, according to Putin, will mean the destruction of Russia.
In a way, it is true. The Greater Russia he and his ilk propose cannot live in peace with it's neighbours - the whole point of GR is that it doesn't live in *peace* with its neighbours. More, that they live in fear.
It is quite clear that the acceptable results, for the West (and probably Ukraine) are either Russia gives up it's Imperial ambitions in Ukraine, or that Ukraine is given military guarantees. These guarantees would have to be of the level of what Israel gets from the US.
To a Greater Russian Nationalist, either situation is unacceptable. So, the price of peace is the end of Greater Russian Nationalism dominating Russian politics.....
The price of peace also requires Russia accepting it's true position in the world - and given that that position is now economically way worse than it was even 2 weeks ago that isn't going to be something they are likely to do.
This is indeed Russia's Suez, where all their great power delusions are being laid bare. We took a hell of a long time to get over that and they will be the same.
Dictators underestimate the strength of democracies because they see only weakness in leaders who submit themselves to the risk of regime change in free elections. They see robust oppositions and free press as vulnerabilities to the system, making it harder to control from the top. They do not realise that those are the qualities behind the resilience and adaptability that have made liberal democracy the most successful model for organising society in the history of human civilisation.
There is a reason why young, educated Russians with access to the truth are leaving. They know what happens in the end when a dictator stakes everything on a bet that the future belongs to militarised nationalist delusion. It is a bet Putin loses. He loses faster if he is wrong about the willingness of citizens in free democracies to make sacrifices and withstand some economic pain to help their neighbours and defend their way of life. I think he is wrong. I hope he is wrong
Mr. Sandpit, quite the fall from grace, from in charge of the House of Commons to not allowed a pass to get in the building.
When does the same happen to Priti?
I see Sir Roger Gale and Rory Stewart were, yesterday, talking about her 'misleading' the House and suggesting it was a resigning matter.
Not, I think, that she will! Or be sacked.
I'm meeting with some friends from the Witham u3a tomorrow to discuss 'current affairs'. Sadly, from the point of a sensible discussion, none of us voted for her.
That she did is unquestionable. She stated the existence of visa centres which didn't exist, and her later correction also proved to be untrue. Either she is a flat out liar like the PM, or massively incompetent. Or both.
Minor correction: Either she is a flat out liar like the PM, or massively incompetent like the PM. Or both, like the PM.
The 'hard' problem is this: it is not all about Putin. His leadership and regime is supported by a vast majority. What we are seeing is in part the will of the people. In the end, the will and resolve of its people, and their imperial delusions and claims over large parts of Europe, have to be broken. I think it is an error to think that this is necessarily over if/when Putin and Lavrov get removed.
In a way, yes.
But in a way, no.
Putin's regime has spent two decades demolishing press freedoms in Russia. The media has slowly become the regime's mouthpiece - or else. Therefore much of the Russian public is fed Putin's worldview, and not any opposing view.
The situation is what it is. People are protesting against Putin's regime, but they are a minority. Even if it is a significant minority, it is still a minority. There are deeper nationalist forces at play. It feels a bit like China 3 decades ago and Tiannamen Square - a country decisively moving in one direction. Of course we have sympathy for the 'losers' in such a scenario, but it shouldn't impact on how we view the threat from the regime.
There are big differences, though. China wasn't prosecuting a war of aggression which it was in danger of losing. Nor was its economy collapsing as a result of western sanctions. And there was no real opposition within the existing state structure (Navalny and his followers).
FWIW I was reading the comments of a British expat working out in Russia (who is keeping his head down and hoping to stay out there) on another forum; his take is that there is tremendous support for Putin amongst Russians, based on their proud nationalism and obsession with WWII as great as ours. He reckons that when the truth (about the casualties and lack of military success) finally reaches Russians, rather than blame Putin they'll mostly blame the West, and we'll be in a new cold war.
Russians respect a strong guy, and have great admiration for their military, but what happens when that strong guy has been shown to be a failure, and the military has been shown as a failure?
What will do for Putin is when the dots are joined - when their military has been shown to have failed because the equipment failed, directly as a result of Putin and his kleptocracy stealing the billions set aside for that equipment.
I'm afraid most Russians would view that as how it as always been. Tsar, Soviet, Putin. Nothing changes.
Wall to wall coverage on BBC TV this morning of Brits trying to get their Ukrainian families out of Belgium and France and being stopped by us. I am so depressed and embarrassed this morning. Grateful to French, Belgium and Polish people offering their hospitality. What is wrong with us? Just do stuff to make it happen not to stop it.
I am involved in several campaigns (unrelated to this) where I deal with Govt departments. My experience is the only thing I see them ever working hard on is to stop stuff happening. They work very hard at that.
On topic - the arguments about this go back to Pinochet and beyond.
Remember in the world we live, the terrorists of NI are specifically protected from prosecution - because they have made it clear that is the one thing that would get them away from their 6 figure salaries and back to the Armalites... The occasionally exception is jailed for an old offence - those are the ones that don't have friends anymore.
What is one more deal with one more devil?
The problem is getting him to take such an "out" - he will, following the pattern of all such leaders, have got to the stage of identifying himself with the State. The destruction of Putin, according to Putin, will mean the destruction of Russia.
In a way, it is true. The Greater Russia he and his ilk propose cannot live in peace with it's neighbours - the whole point of GR is that it doesn't live in *peace* with its neighbours. More, that they live in fear.
It is quite clear that the acceptable results, for the West (and probably Ukraine) are either Russia gives up it's Imperial ambitions in Ukraine, or that Ukraine is given military guarantees. These guarantees would have to be of the level of what Israel gets from the US.
To a Greater Russian Nationalist, either situation is unacceptable. So, the price of peace is the end of Greater Russian Nationalism dominating Russian politics.....
The price of peace also requires Russia accepting it's true position in the world - and given that that position is now economically way worse than it was even 2 weeks ago that isn't going to be something they are likely to do.
This is indeed Russia's Suez, where all their great power delusions are being laid bare. We took a hell of a long time to get over that and they will be the same.
We 'got over it' by deciding we could have a special relationship (from our POV) with the US and so still be sort of important, in our minds (historians incoming to tell me I'm talking nonsense, no doubt). What's Russia's role after this? Putin (or successor) as Xi's poodle?
On topic - the arguments about this go back to Pinochet and beyond.
Remember in the world we live, the terrorists of NI are specifically protected from prosecution - because they have made it clear that is the one thing that would get them away from their 6 figure salaries and back to the Armalites... The occasionally exception is jailed for an old offence - those are the ones that don't have friends anymore.
What is one more deal with one more devil?
The problem is getting him to take such an "out" - he will, following the pattern of all such leaders, have got to the stage of identifying himself with the State. The destruction of Putin, according to Putin, will mean the destruction of Russia.
In a way, it is true. The Greater Russia he and his ilk propose cannot live in peace with it's neighbours - the whole point of GR is that it doesn't live in *peace* with its neighbours. More, that they live in fear.
It is quite clear that the acceptable results, for the West (and probably Ukraine) are either Russia gives up it's Imperial ambitions in Ukraine, or that Ukraine is given military guarantees. These guarantees would have to be of the level of what Israel gets from the US.
To a Greater Russian Nationalist, either situation is unacceptable. So, the price of peace is the end of Greater Russian Nationalism dominating Russian politics.....
The price of peace also requires Russia accepting it's true position in the world - and given that that position is now economically way worse than it was even 2 weeks ago that isn't going to be something they are likely to do.
This is indeed Russia's Suez, where all their great power delusions are being laid bare. We took a hell of a long time to get over that and they will be the same.
Thread on Putin’s “Mafia State” and why that will heighten the impact of sanctions:
Let's discuss Russian economy. Many underestimate its dependency upon technological import. Russia's so deeply integrated into Western technological chains that severing these ties will lead to its collapse. Sanctions are already effective and can be made even more efficient🧵
It also implies that “damaging” Ukraine may be sufficient - conquest not necessary
It's an interesting thread - and makes a point similar to that of the Guardian article from the Russian-born US academic that I linked earlier. Putin and his gang are a criminal enterprise and we need to be careful not to project onto them analysis based on the more familiar workings of our own types of state.
I also see that, after oil and gold, charcoal briquettes represent Russia's biggest export. So we need a BBQ boycott this summer.....
The 'hard' problem is this: it is not all about Putin. His leadership and regime is supported by a vast majority. What we are seeing is in part the will of the people. In the end, the will and resolve of its people, and their imperial delusions and claims over large parts of Europe, have to be broken. I think it is an error to think that this is necessarily over if/when Putin and Lavrov get removed.
In a way, yes.
But in a way, no.
Putin's regime has spent two decades demolishing press freedoms in Russia. The media has slowly become the regime's mouthpiece - or else. Therefore much of the Russian public is fed Putin's worldview, and not any opposing view.
The situation is what it is. People are protesting against Putin's regime, but they are a minority. Even if it is a significant minority, it is still a minority. There are deeper nationalist forces at play. It feels a bit like China 3 decades ago and Tiannamen Square - a country decisively moving in one direction. Of course we have sympathy for the 'losers' in such a scenario, but it shouldn't impact on how we view the threat from the regime.
There are big differences, though. China wasn't prosecuting a war of aggression which it was in danger of losing. Nor was its economy collapsing as a result of western sanctions. And there was no real opposition within the existing state structure (Navalny and his followers).
FWIW I was reading the comments of a British expat working out in Russia (who is keeping his head down and hoping to stay out there) on another forum; his take is that there is tremendous support for Putin amongst Russians, based on their proud nationalism and obsession with WWII as great as ours. He reckons that when the truth (about the casualties and lack of military success) finally reaches Russians, rather than blame Putin they'll mostly blame the West, and we'll be in a new cold war.
Russians respect a strong guy, and have great admiration for their military, but what happens when that strong guy has been shown to be a failure, and the military has been shown as a failure?
What will do for Putin is when the dots are joined - when their military has been shown to have failed because the equipment failed, directly as a result of Putin and his kleptocracy stealing the billions set aside for that equipment.
I'm afraid most Russians would view that as how it as always been. Tsar, Soviet, Putin. Nothing changes.
But he remained sunk in gloom, and huddled back in the chair. Presently: “About these wars, the ones after the Boer War, I mean. What happened to the great States of Europe? Is Russia still the danger?”
“We are all very worried about her.”
“We always were in my day, and in Dizzy’s before me. Is there still a Tsar?”
“Yes, but he is not a Romanoff. It’s another family. He is much more powerful, and much more despotic.”
On topic - the arguments about this go back to Pinochet and beyond.
Remember in the world we live, the terrorists of NI are specifically protected from prosecution - because they have made it clear that is the one thing that would get them away from their 6 figure salaries and back to the Armalites... The occasionally exception is jailed for an old offence - those are the ones that don't have friends anymore.
What is one more deal with one more devil?
The problem is getting him to take such an "out" - he will, following the pattern of all such leaders, have got to the stage of identifying himself with the State. The destruction of Putin, according to Putin, will mean the destruction of Russia.
In a way, it is true. The Greater Russia he and his ilk propose cannot live in peace with it's neighbours - the whole point of GR is that it doesn't live in *peace* with its neighbours. More, that they live in fear.
It is quite clear that the acceptable results, for the West (and probably Ukraine) are either Russia gives up it's Imperial ambitions in Ukraine, or that Ukraine is given military guarantees. These guarantees would have to be of the level of what Israel gets from the US.
To a Greater Russian Nationalist, either situation is unacceptable. So, the price of peace is the end of Greater Russian Nationalism dominating Russian politics.....
The price of peace also requires Russia accepting it's true position in the world - and given that that position is now economically way worse than it was even 2 weeks ago that isn't going to be something they are likely to do.
This is indeed Russia's Suez, where all their great power delusions are being laid bare. We took a hell of a long time to get over that and they will be the same.
We got over it?
LOL, but I would say that we did after the Falklands. That result and the arrogant, sometimes obnoxious swagger of the 80s were closely connected.
Morning all. Just for a change from the more important news, has this rather nice report been flagged up? Impressive photos by way of a taster for more to come.
"The wreck of Sir Ernest Shackleton’s ship has been found off the coast of Antarctica, according to the Falklands Maritime Heritage Trust.
Endurance had not been seen since it was crushed by ice and sank in the Weddell Sea in 1915, and last month the Endurance22 Expedition set off from Cape Town, South Africa, a month after the 100th anniversary of Shackleton’s death on a mission to locate it.
Endurance was found at a depth of 3,008 metres and approximately four miles south of the position originally recorded by the ship’s captain, Frank Worsley, the trust said."
It's a little spark of good news in a very dark time.
Rare that I think one of Cyclefree's headers is wrong, but it does not feel appropriate for "the West" to promote hard red lines for peace. It is Ukrainian's who are dying, having their lives turned upside down and enduring bombing and starvation. Our job should be to strengthen their negotiating position and give them as much support as possible, but not to direct the solutions.
If the Russian elite feel it is time to topple Putin and can do so, fantastic, but if Zelensky thinks the best answer is to deal with Putin, formally lose Crimea to Russia and perhaps an independent Donbass and Luhansk in return for an end to the war, we should support him.
Boris Johnson is turning away Ukranian refugees to appease his anti-immigrant base support and shore up votes for the next election, according to a former Conservative minister.
This morning you told the British public you literally can't define what a woman is. What's the plan, lift up random objects until you find one that rattles?
So whilst I get that the right are delighted that Bercow has been found to be a bully and disgraced, I am confused as to how the same people can also be delighted that Patel has been found to be a bully and remains Home Secretary.
Standards apply equally or they are not standards.
I am not delighted about Patel
She is a hopeless minister and not fit for purpose
But Bercow was an utter embarrassment in his media interviews yesterday
Good riddance and I hope you are not suggesting that you are disappointed in the finding
Hell no - I thought that what Bercow did in the chamber to support backbenchers in the midst of chaos was good. And I think that what he did outside the chamber was utterly appalling.
What I would like - as always - is standards applied equally. Whilst it is right that Bercow is unfit for his requisite peerage, it is also right that Lebedev and various other Tory donors are unfit for their bought peerages. So when the remaining Big Dog fans sneer about how wrong we were to say it was vindictive to withhold it against Bercow I have to point to the kind of people who have been given them and conclude that it WAS. None of these people should be in the Lords, so singling out only Bercow demonstrates vindictiveness and stupidity.
Priti Patel was fired for running her own private foreign policy - which makes her a traitor at best or treasonous at worst had it been war time. She is a proven bully. She is a proven liar. And yet there she is in the Home Office protected from sanction by the very same people who crow on about Bercow.
Lets get the bullies out of our politics. Lets get the lies out of our politics.
This morning you told the British public you literally can't define what a woman is. What's the plan, lift up random objects until you find one that rattles?
Cooper's is the correct response. You have a bunch of people using a word in subtly different ways in subtly different contexts and trying really hard not to see the other people's point of view. If you use it in one of the ways they don't themselves use they get really, really angry. So STFU.
I think hoping for a new direction for Russia even if Putin goes is unlikely.
The vast majority of Russians are nationalist and authoritarian, at the last Presidential election 77% voted for Putin and in second place with 11% was the candidate of the Communist Party.
There are few liberals and outside of the most wealthy parts of St Petersburg and Moscow far more Russians are deeply suspicious of the West and NATO expansion and in favour of the theory if a greater Russia than opposed.
The best that can be hoped for for now is that Russia can be pushed back to the most pro Russian Dombas region of Ukraine while the majority of the country manages to fight off the Russian advance and retain its independence
On topic - the arguments about this go back to Pinochet and beyond.
Remember in the world we live, the terrorists of NI are specifically protected from prosecution - because they have made it clear that is the one thing that would get them away from their 6 figure salaries and back to the Armalites... The occasionally exception is jailed for an old offence - those are the ones that don't have friends anymore.
What is one more deal with one more devil?
The problem is getting him to take such an "out" - he will, following the pattern of all such leaders, have got to the stage of identifying himself with the State. The destruction of Putin, according to Putin, will mean the destruction of Russia.
In a way, it is true. The Greater Russia he and his ilk propose cannot live in peace with it's neighbours - the whole point of GR is that it doesn't live in *peace* with its neighbours. More, that they live in fear.
It is quite clear that the acceptable results, for the West (and probably Ukraine) are either Russia gives up it's Imperial ambitions in Ukraine, or that Ukraine is given military guarantees. These guarantees would have to be of the level of what Israel gets from the US.
To a Greater Russian Nationalist, either situation is unacceptable. So, the price of peace is the end of Greater Russian Nationalism dominating Russian politics.....
The price of peace also requires Russia accepting it's true position in the world - and given that that position is now economically way worse than it was even 2 weeks ago that isn't going to be something they are likely to do.
This is indeed Russia's Suez, where all their great power delusions are being laid bare. We took a hell of a long time to get over that and they will be the same.
Feels more like its Algeria. More bloody, less rapid, and likely to leave scars that take decades to heal, if ever.
If the government is worried about Britain not being able to cope with too many Ukrainian refugees maybe they should open up a register for people who are willing to put up refugees in their own home.
Mrs P. and I had the conversation a few days ago and would be willing to do that. Spoke to our neighbour jyesterday and he and his wife had been thinking exactly the same.
I appreciate that's a short to medium-term solution but I very much doubt the government would face any major backlash for accepting hundreds of thousands of refugees.
This morning you told the British public you literally can't define what a woman is. What's the plan, lift up random objects until you find one that rattles?
Cooper's is the correct response. You have a bunch of people using a word in subtly different ways in subtly different contexts and trying really hard not to see the other people's point of view. If you use it in one of the ways they don't themselves use they get really, really angry. So STFU.
This whole debate is a fruitless distraction from the real inequalities that women still face. I went to a work dinner last night *on International Women's Day* at which there were 18 men and no women, unless you count the ones serving the food.
Thread on Putin’s “Mafia State” and why that will heighten the impact of sanctions:
Let's discuss Russian economy. Many underestimate its dependency upon technological import. Russia's so deeply integrated into Western technological chains that severing these ties will lead to its collapse. Sanctions are already effective and can be made even more efficient🧵
It also implies that “damaging” Ukraine may be sufficient - conquest not necessary
It's an interesting thread - and makes a point similar to that of the Guardian article from the Russian-born US academic that I linked earlier. Putin and his gang are a criminal enterprise and we need to be careful not to project onto them analysis based on the more familiar workings of our own types of state.
I also see that, after oil and gold, charcoal briquettes represent Russia's biggest export. So we need a BBQ boycott this summer.....
In summary, everything in RU public life is a total lie. It is country in complete reality distortion. The more you lie and the better you are at it the higher you get up the greasy pole towards the Kremlin. Once there you can become the very elite and lie everyday to Putin himself, about the glorious state of the country and the astonishing abilities of the military.
The question is, does Putin really believe any of it?
I think hoping for a new direction for Russia even if Putin goes is unlikely.
The vast majority of Russians are nationalist and authoritarian, at the last Presidential election 77% voted for Putin and in second place with 11% was the candidate of the Communist Party.
There are few liberals and outside of the most wealthy parts of St Petersburg and Moscow far more Russians are deeply suspicious of the West and NATO expansion and in favour of the theory if a greater Russia than opposed.
The best that can be hoped for for now is that Russia can be pushed back to the most pro Russian Dombas region of Ukraine while the majority of the country manages to fight off the Russian advance and retain its independence
Aren't you missing the fact that there were no free and fair elections in Russia?
People are actually dying terrible deaths in Ukraine at the hands of Russia, but everyone is talking about queues at the french border, delays in visa processing, and bureaucratic incompetence on the part of the Home office.
So the proportionately greater concern is with the fate of the people who are already safe, rather than those who are still at risk of death. War crimes are yesterdays news, todays villain is Priti Patel.
This all plays wonderfully in to Putin's hands, as we have been goaded back in to fighting the culture wars about immigration. We are being manipulated and used, like fools and idiots. We need to focus on the bigger questions in this conflict.
Unlike other wars, which occur far away between distant peoples, here the refugee issues are absolutely peripheral to the conflict - because it is a conflict we are involved in. Talking about refugees is to just engage in a form of escapism and denial about how serious the situation is, and what it means for our future.
.@EmmanuelMacron first round poll lead is now the highest seen in a 🇫🇷 presidential election since 1965 - the first direct presidential election of the 5th Republic
Macron will likely be re elected though Le Pen is still second and run off polls show she will make it a bit closer than 2017.
She will then target 2027 when the French constitution now like the US constitution prohibits Presidents from running for a 3rd term, so this will be Macron's last campaign. He cannot run again next time
Dictators underestimate the strength of democracies because they see only weakness in leaders who submit themselves to the risk of regime change in free elections. They see robust oppositions and free press as vulnerabilities to the system, making it harder to control from the top. They do not realise that those are the qualities behind the resilience and adaptability that have made liberal democracy the most successful model for organising society in the history of human civilisation.
There is a reason why young, educated Russians with access to the truth are leaving. They know what happens in the end when a dictator stakes everything on a bet that the future belongs to militarised nationalist delusion. It is a bet Putin loses. He loses faster if he is wrong about the willingness of citizens in free democracies to make sacrifices and withstand some economic pain to help their neighbours and defend their way of life. I think he is wrong. I hope he is wrong
Anyway, I awoke this morning more gloomy than ever about the war. The idea that Putin is ousted feels like a pipe dream. The idea that a status quo ante agreement lets Russia withdraw and hold only the Donbass and Crimea feels unlikely.
Which leaves two far more realistic scenarios. A long war of attrition where Putin slaughters the innocent and we're left either doing nothing substantial about it as whats left of Ukraine gets swallowed up as a brutal puppet state. Or as Roger Waters put it "the rusty wire that hold the cork that keeps the anger in / gives way, and suddenly its day again".
Unless we get very lucky and Putin drops dead or is dragged out and shot, or he gets bored and gives up at best we have a new cold war and the sword of Damocles hanging over our heads for another few generations, or the sword gets dropped through our heads.
I posted a week back about the coming economic calamity to face us this year and all the metrics keep getting worse. Weaning ourselves off Russian oil and gas, and having to divert cash into rebuilding our shattered armed forces is going to be very bad for a lot of people. Being told "blame Putin, its his fault" won't help pay people's bills.
So whilst I get that the right are delighted that Bercow has been found to be a bully and disgraced, I am confused as to how the same people can also be delighted that Patel has been found to be a bully and remains Home Secretary.
Standards apply equally or they are not standards.
I am not delighted about Patel
She is a hopeless minister and not fit for purpose
But Bercow was an utter embarrassment in his media interviews yesterday
Good riddance and I hope you are not suggesting that you are disappointed in the finding
Hell no - I thought that what Bercow did in the chamber to support backbenchers in the midst of chaos was good. And I think that what he did outside the chamber was utterly appalling.
What I would like - as always - is standards applied equally. Whilst it is right that Bercow is unfit for his requisite peerage, it is also right that Lebedev and various other Tory donors are unfit for their bought peerages. So when the remaining Big Dog fans sneer about how wrong we were to say it was vindictive to withhold it against Bercow I have to point to the kind of people who have been given them and conclude that it WAS. None of these people should be in the Lords, so singling out only Bercow demonstrates vindictiveness and stupidity.
Priti Patel was fired for running her own private foreign policy - which makes her a traitor at best or treasonous at worst had it been war time. She is a proven bully. She is a proven liar. And yet there she is in the Home Office protected from sanction by the very same people who crow on about Bercow.
Lets get the bullies out of our politics. Lets get the lies out of our politics.
Heck, I'd take just reducing their number as a starting point.
I think hoping for a new direction for Russia even if Putin goes is unlikely.
The vast majority of Russians are nationalist and authoritarian, at the last Presidential election 77% voted for Putin and in second place with 11% was the candidate of the Communist Party.
There are few liberals and outside of the most wealthy parts of St Petersburg and Moscow far more Russians are deeply suspicious of the West and NATO expansion and in favour of the theory if a greater Russia than opposed.
The best that can be hoped for for now is that Russia can be pushed back to the most pro Russian Dombas region of Ukraine while the majority of the country manages to fight off the Russian advance and retain its independence
Aren't you missing the fact that there were no free and fair elections in Russia?
Putin would probably still have been elected with free and fair elections, although it would have been a lot closer. That seems to be the consensus of the articles I've read on the subject.
This morning you told the British public you literally can't define what a woman is. What's the plan, lift up random objects until you find one that rattles?
Rowling was responding to Annelise Dodds, no? In any case, Labour are in a royal mess over this. Like with Brexit, they're trying and failing to ride two horses on an issue where opinions are polarised.
I think hoping for a new direction for Russia even if Putin goes is unlikely.
The vast majority of Russians are nationalist and authoritarian, at the last Presidential election 77% voted for Putin and in second place with 11% was the candidate of the Communist Party.
There are few liberals and outside of the most wealthy parts of St Petersburg and Moscow far more Russians are deeply suspicious of the West and NATO expansion and in favour of the theory if a greater Russia than opposed.
The best that can be hoped for for now is that Russia can be pushed back to the most pro Russian Dombas region of Ukraine while the majority of the country manages to fight off the Russian advance and retain its independence
Aren't you missing the fact that there were no free and fair elections in Russia?
Putin would probably still have been elected with free and fair elections, although it would have been a lot closer. That seems to be the consensus of the articles I've read on the subject.
I get that. But he'd be out next time if there were free and fair elections.
Dictators underestimate the strength of democracies because they see only weakness in leaders who submit themselves to the risk of regime change in free elections. They see robust oppositions and free press as vulnerabilities to the system, making it harder to control from the top. They do not realise that those are the qualities behind the resilience and adaptability that have made liberal democracy the most successful model for organising society in the history of human civilisation.
There is a reason why young, educated Russians with access to the truth are leaving...
Note, though, that part of the current Russian brain drain is to China.
This morning you told the British public you literally can't define what a woman is. What's the plan, lift up random objects until you find one that rattles?
Rowling was responding to Annelise Dodds, no? In any case, Labour are in a royal mess over this. Like with Brexit, they're trying and failing to ride two horses on an issue where opinions are polarised.
I have some, not a lot, but some sympathy for them over Brexit.
I have absolutely no sympathy for them on this issue.
Thread on Putin’s “Mafia State” and why that will heighten the impact of sanctions:
Let's discuss Russian economy. Many underestimate its dependency upon technological import. Russia's so deeply integrated into Western technological chains that severing these ties will lead to its collapse. Sanctions are already effective and can be made even more efficient🧵
It also implies that “damaging” Ukraine may be sufficient - conquest not necessary
It's an interesting thread - and makes a point similar to that of the Guardian article from the Russian-born US academic that I linked earlier. Putin and his gang are a criminal enterprise and we need to be careful not to project onto them analysis based on the more familiar workings of our own types of state.
I also see that, after oil and gold, charcoal briquettes represent Russia's biggest export. So we need a BBQ boycott this summer.....
In summary, everything in RU public life is a total lie. It is country in complete reality distortion. The more you lie and the better you are at it the higher you get up the greasy pole towards the Kremlin. Once there you can become the very elite and lie everyday to Putin himself, about the glorious state of the country and the astonishing abilities of the military.
The question is, does Putin really believe any of it?
During Soviet times, Western intelligence agencies over estimated the Soviet Union. Why? Because they concentrated on stealing documents form the very highest levels. The got access to the papers used to brief the Politburo, on a number of occasions. Which were 10th generation lies....
There was a chap at the CIA who got endless stick for pointing out things such as the claimed yield from wheat per share hectare didn't add up. It also didn't match what you saw if you took a drive in the Russian countryside.
Dictators underestimate the strength of democracies because they see only weakness in leaders who submit themselves to the risk of regime change in free elections. They see robust oppositions and free press as vulnerabilities to the system, making it harder to control from the top. They do not realise that those are the qualities behind the resilience and adaptability that have made liberal democracy the most successful model for organising society in the history of human civilisation.
There is a reason why young, educated Russians with access to the truth are leaving. They know what happens in the end when a dictator stakes everything on a bet that the future belongs to militarised nationalist delusion. It is a bet Putin loses. He loses faster if he is wrong about the willingness of citizens in free democracies to make sacrifices and withstand some economic pain to help their neighbours and defend their way of life. I think he is wrong. I hope he is wrong
So whilst I get that the right are delighted that Bercow has been found to be a bully and disgraced, I am confused as to how the same people can also be delighted that Patel has been found to be a bully and remains Home Secretary.
Standards apply equally or they are not standards.
I am not delighted about Patel
She is a hopeless minister and not fit for purpose
But Bercow was an utter embarrassment in his media interviews yesterday
Good riddance and I hope you are not suggesting that you are disappointed in the finding
Hell no - I thought that what Bercow did in the chamber to support backbenchers in the midst of chaos was good. And I think that what he did outside the chamber was utterly appalling.
What I would like - as always - is standards applied equally. Whilst it is right that Bercow is unfit for his requisite peerage, it is also right that Lebedev and various other Tory donors are unfit for their bought peerages. So when the remaining Big Dog fans sneer about how wrong we were to say it was vindictive to withhold it against Bercow I have to point to the kind of people who have been given them and conclude that it WAS. None of these people should be in the Lords, so singling out only Bercow demonstrates vindictiveness and stupidity.
Priti Patel was fired for running her own private foreign policy - which makes her a traitor at best or treasonous at worst had it been war time. She is a proven bully. She is a proven liar. And yet there she is in the Home Office protected from sanction by the very same people who crow on about Bercow.
Lets get the bullies out of our politics. Lets get the lies out of our politics.
Heck, I'd take just reducing their number as a starting point.
In my federal UK we wouldn't have a House of Lords. But until we abolish it there has to be some kind of standards...
For a truly contrary view, here's a (long, although you can skip the first eight minutes) video from an American in Ukraine who argues that militias aligned with Zelenskiy are carrying out serious atrocities and that Zel himself is a merely a puppet of a billionaire mafia/oligarch who lives in Switzerland, and is also financing the local neo-nazis. It contains a lot of waffle and BS but also some disturbing apparently first hand material.
This morning you told the British public you literally can't define what a woman is. What's the plan, lift up random objects until you find one that rattles?
Rowling was responding to Annelise Dodds, no? In any case, Labour are in a royal mess over this. Like with Brexit, they're trying and failing to ride two horses on an issue where opinions are polarised.
I think it's different to Brexit because it involves two very small minorities, who are very intensely angry. Other people may have opinions one way or the other, but it doesn't really motivate them. In contrast, at least 60% of the population had quite a strong opinion on Brexit, at least after the referendum.
The correct way to play the politics in a situation like this is not to ride either of the horses.
This morning you told the British public you literally can't define what a woman is. What's the plan, lift up random objects until you find one that rattles?
Rowling was responding to Annelise Dodds, no? In any case, Labour are in a royal mess over this. Like with Brexit, they're trying and failing to ride two horses on an issue where opinions are polarised.
I have some, not a lot, but some sympathy for them over Brexit.
I have absolutely no sympathy for them on this issue.
Agreed. With Brexit there are genuine shades of grey, and reasonable people can disagree. This is just reality vs. fantasy.
If a vocal minority (or majority for that matter) started claiming the Sun orbited the Earth, I wouldn't have any sympathy for a party which tried to appease them.
Thread on Putin’s “Mafia State” and why that will heighten the impact of sanctions:
Let's discuss Russian economy. Many underestimate its dependency upon technological import. Russia's so deeply integrated into Western technological chains that severing these ties will lead to its collapse. Sanctions are already effective and can be made even more efficient🧵
It also implies that “damaging” Ukraine may be sufficient - conquest not necessary
It's an interesting thread - and makes a point similar to that of the Guardian article from the Russian-born US academic that I linked earlier. Putin and his gang are a criminal enterprise and we need to be careful not to project onto them analysis based on the more familiar workings of our own types of state.
I also see that, after oil and gold, charcoal briquettes represent Russia's biggest export. So we need a BBQ boycott this summer.....
In summary, everything in RU public life is a total lie. It is country in complete reality distortion. The more you lie and the better you are at it the higher you get up the greasy pole towards the Kremlin. Once there you can become the very elite and lie everyday to Putin himself, about the glorious state of the country and the astonishing abilities of the military.
Is that different from what we see here in nature, or merely in degree?
The 'hard' problem is this: it is not all about Putin. His leadership and regime is supported by a vast majority. What we are seeing is in part the will of the people. In the end, the will and resolve of its people, and their imperial delusions and claims over large parts of Europe, have to be broken. I think it is an error to think that this is necessarily over if/when Putin and Lavrov get removed.
In a way, yes.
But in a way, no.
Putin's regime has spent two decades demolishing press freedoms in Russia. The media has slowly become the regime's mouthpiece - or else. Therefore much of the Russian public is fed Putin's worldview, and not any opposing view.
The situation is what it is. People are protesting against Putin's regime, but they are a minority. Even if it is a significant minority, it is still a minority. There are deeper nationalist forces at play. It feels a bit like China 3 decades ago and Tiannamen Square - a country decisively moving in one direction. Of course we have sympathy for the 'losers' in such a scenario, but it shouldn't impact on how we view the threat from the regime.
There are big differences, though. China wasn't prosecuting a war of aggression which it was in danger of losing. Nor was its economy collapsing as a result of western sanctions. And there was no real opposition within the existing state structure (Navalny and his followers).
FWIW I was reading the comments of a British expat working out in Russia (who is keeping his head down and hoping to stay out there) on another forum; his take is that there is tremendous support for Putin amongst Russians, based on their proud nationalism and obsession with WWII as great as ours. He reckons that when the truth (about the casualties and lack of military success) finally reaches Russians, rather than blame Putin they'll mostly blame the West, and we'll be in a new cold war.
A relative of mine publicly (Facebook and elsewhere) denounced the invasion. All her friends and former colleagues in Russia sued up to denounce her. Hard to know, of course, if that is just "Soviet times" denunciation, but she thinks it is real and heart felt.
Threats of murder are something - when they come from retired senior military, that is something again....
A good friend's Russian mother-in-law, senior academic in her 90s and with all her wits, cannot believe that the special military operation is anything but what VVP says it is, despite all the evidence pointed out by her daughter.
Perhaps worth analysing why Parliament was so dysfunctional that it chose him as speaker. Perhaps also think about a proven bully remains in charge of the Home Office. There is a lot wrong with a system that promotes bully's.
A little late to reply but the Parliament that chose him was four Parliaments back now. David Cameron (remember him) was leader of the opposition when Bercow was first elected. Yes, yes, he was technically reelected at each start, but removing a sitting Speaker is very difficult indeed.
This morning you told the British public you literally can't define what a woman is. What's the plan, lift up random objects until you find one that rattles?
Cooper's is the correct response. You have a bunch of people using a word in subtly different ways in subtly different contexts and trying really hard not to see the other people's point of view. If you use it in one of the ways they don't themselves use they get really, really angry. So STFU.
This whole debate is a fruitless distraction from the real inequalities that women still face. I went to a work dinner last night *on International Women's Day* at which there were 18 men and no women, unless you count the ones serving the food.
I've worked in mixed gender teams for the last 13 years, and the majority of my managers have been women. My current team was, at one point, entirely female apart from me. It hasn't been a problem for me at all. But I think it is evidence that, in some areas, women are simply not an oppressed minority in the workplace and to carry on with this narrative is divisive and counter productive. The remaining pockets of sexism and misogyny should be tackled, but under the banner of gender equality, rather than through perpetrating the idea that all of society is inherently sexist.
People are actually dying terrible deaths in Ukraine at the hands of Russia, but everyone is talking about queues at the french border, delays in visa processing, and bureaucratic incompetence on the part of the Home office.
So the proportionately greater concern is with the fate of the people who are already safe, rather than those who are still at risk of death. War crimes are yesterdays news, todays villain is Priti Patel.
This all plays wonderfully in to Putin's hands, as we have been goaded back in to fighting the culture wars about immigration. We are being manipulated and used, like fools and idiots. We need to focus on the bigger questions in this conflict.
Unlike other wars, which occur far away between distant peoples, here the refugee issues are absolutely peripheral to the conflict - because it is a conflict we are involved in. Talking about refugees is to just engage in a form of escapism and denial about how serious the situation is, and what it means for our future.
I think we can do both - praise the government for the military aid they’ve been giving Ukraine while criticising it for the slow response to the refugee crisis. It’s called democracy and why one of the oligarch’s enablers, Lord Pannick has an article in the Telegraph today and is not sitting in a cell.
Western democracies are moving at speed - and some countries are faster than others eg UK on military aid (not so long ago the RAF was having to skirt Germany) and aircraft and shipping bans than others, while slower on refugees. We’ll all get there in the end.
I think it is important to recognise that the situation is increasingly dynamic. Tickets on the buses from St. Petersburg to Tallinn routes are selling for hundreds, even thousands of Euros. Every train or bus is full, so it is clear than large numbers of Russians are getting out as quickly as they can.
Friends over the border are reporting that panic buying has literally emptied supermarkets, and the availability of foreign goods as basically stopped. The banking system is under considerable pressure as people try to retrieve whatever cash they can get. Hard currency has disappeared from the banking system and a black market for hard currency offers rates for cash that are way below whatever official market rates may be. Industry is discovering just how integrated into western supply chains that Russia is. In a matter of maybe three months large chunks of Russian industry will no longer be able to function.
It is only now that the majority of Russians are beginning to sense that there is something seriously wrong. The Russian media continues to push the propaganda bullshit of the regime, but rumours of horrific losses are beginning to cut through, albeit very slowly.
In Tallinn, Blinken came last night and continued to make the point that any attack in this direction would be answered with full force. In fact the Baltic now feels like a pretty safe place to be and neither does it feel like the "West Berlin" of Richard Milnes piece in the FT today. More troops and air cover are coming, and in any event the nearest viable Russian attack force is over a thousand miles away.
We are bedding down for a long crisis, with preparations for long stays for the Ukrainian refugees, it will be a struggle to cope with large numbers, given that the population of Estonia is only 1.3 million. Yet, the country has come together, with even the Russian speakers now recognising that Putin is our collective enemy. The horror at the barbaric actions of the Russian army is deeply felt, and Ukrainian colours are everywhere.
This crisis might last quite a while. The popularity of the PM, Kaja Kallas, has rocketed and many have said to me how relieved they are that she is in charge. All the attempts by Putinist subversion to promote the populist right wing over the past few years have come to nothing.
Estonia is ready to deal with whatever next this crisis throws up.
Thanks for a great post as usual.
One question, are there any concerns about any of the Russians entering Estonia or is everyone convinced that they are genuinely anti-Putin and trying to flee from him?
Dictators underestimate the strength of democracies because they see only weakness in leaders who submit themselves to the risk of regime change in free elections. They see robust oppositions and free press as vulnerabilities to the system, making it harder to control from the top. They do not realise that those are the qualities behind the resilience and adaptability that have made liberal democracy the most successful model for organising society in the history of human civilisation.
There is a reason why young, educated Russians with access to the truth are leaving. They know what happens in the end when a dictator stakes everything on a bet that the future belongs to militarised nationalist delusion. It is a bet Putin loses. He loses faster if he is wrong about the willingness of citizens in free democracies to make sacrifices and withstand some economic pain to help their neighbours and defend their way of life. I think he is wrong. I hope he is wrong
This is related to a debate I've had many times with @Leon regarding "divisions" and "wokeness" and all the other nonsense he's obsessed with.
Russia actively promotes divisions and discord in the west because they think it makes us weak, and Leon agrees. I fundamentally disagree. Our free debate, our willingness to challenge ourselves, to perpetually evolve thanks to the way the young always present challenges to the old, the vulnerable challenge the strong, the opposition challenge the government etc . . . that is our greatest strength, not our weakness.
It is what prevents us from turning into ossified, kleptocratic and yes sclerotic regimes like Putin's Russia with Potemkin militaries and grand delusions of greatness.
As long as we challenge ourselves more than our enemies can ever challenge us, our diversity of opinion has a deep groundswell of hidden strength there - not weakness.
In feeding our divisions, while shutting down their own, Russia only challenges us to be stronger not weaker - and Russia only weakens itself.
People are actually dying terrible deaths in Ukraine at the hands of Russia, but everyone is talking about queues at the french border, delays in visa processing, and bureaucratic incompetence on the part of the Home office.
So the proportionately greater concern is with the fate of the people who are already safe, rather than those who are still at risk of death. War crimes are yesterdays news, todays villain is Priti Patel.
This all plays wonderfully in to Putin's hands, as we have been goaded back in to fighting the culture wars about immigration. We are being manipulated and used, like fools and idiots. We need to focus on the bigger questions in this conflict.
Unlike other wars, which occur far away between distant peoples, here the refugee issues are absolutely peripheral to the conflict - because it is a conflict we are involved in. Talking about refugees is to just engage in a form of escapism and denial about how serious the situation is, and what it means for our future.
So we should do even less for the refugees stuck at Calais?
Or concentrate on the areas where we can make a difference?
So whilst I get that the right are delighted that Bercow has been found to be a bully and disgraced, I am confused as to how the same people can also be delighted that Patel has been found to be a bully and remains Home Secretary.
Standards apply equally or they are not standards.
It just shows up the left for being just as willing to turn a blind eye as the right. I sense a parallel with Salmond.
This is more of a problem for the "good guys"; no one expects the Tories to be saints (especially this iteration).
Bearing in mind of course that Bercow was Conservative Party member and MP for 29 years and a Labour member for 12 months or less. If someone is a bully they tend to show those characteristics right through their lives.
I think it is important to recognise that the situation is increasingly dynamic. Tickets on the buses from St. Petersburg to Tallinn routes are selling for hundreds, even thousands of Euros. Every train or bus is full, so it is clear than large numbers of Russians are getting out as quickly as they can.
Friends over the border are reporting that panic buying has literally emptied supermarkets, and the availability of foreign goods as basically stopped. The banking system is under considerable pressure as people try to retrieve whatever cash they can get. Hard currency has disappeared from the banking system and a black market for hard currency offers rates for cash that are way below whatever official market rates may be. Industry is discovering just how integrated into western supply chains that Russia is. In a matter of maybe three months large chunks of Russian industry will no longer be able to function.
It is only now that the majority of Russians are beginning to sense that there is something seriously wrong. The Russian media continues to push the propaganda bullshit of the regime, but rumours of horrific losses are beginning to cut through, albeit very slowly.
In Tallinn, Blinken came last night and continued to make the point that any attack in this direction would be answered with full force. In fact the Baltic now feels like a pretty safe place to be and neither does it feel like the "West Berlin" of Richard Milnes piece in the FT today. More troops and air cover are coming, and in any event the nearest viable Russian attack force is over a thousand miles away.
We are bedding down for a long crisis, with preparations for long stays for the Ukrainian refugees, it will be a struggle to cope with large numbers, given that the population of Estonia is only 1.3 million. Yet, the country has come together, with even the Russian speakers now recognising that Putin is our collective enemy. The horror at the barbaric actions of the Russian army is deeply felt, and Ukrainian colours are everywhere.
This crisis might last quite a while. The popularity of the PM, Kaja Kallas, has rocketed and many have said to me how relieved they are that she is in charge. All the attempts by Putinist subversion to promote the populist right wing over the past few years have come to nothing.
Estonia is ready to deal with whatever next this crisis throws up.
Thanks for a great post as usual.
One question, are there any concerns about any of the Russians entering Estonia or is everyone convinced that they are genuinely anti-Putin and trying to flee from him?
My take on Cicero's excellent post is that the crisis is going to wipe out the Russian middle class, such as it is - they'll either emigrate or be ruined - and they'll be left with oligarchs and lots of sullen workers.
This morning you told the British public you literally can't define what a woman is. What's the plan, lift up random objects until you find one that rattles?
Cooper's is the correct response. You have a bunch of people using a word in subtly different ways in subtly different contexts and trying really hard not to see the other people's point of view. If you use it in one of the ways they don't themselves use they get really, really angry. So STFU.
This whole debate is a fruitless distraction from the real inequalities that women still face. I went to a work dinner last night *on International Women's Day* at which there were 18 men and no women, unless you count the ones serving the food.
I've worked in mixed gender teams for the last 13 years, and the majority of my managers have been women. My current team was, at one point, entirely female apart from me. It hasn't been a problem for me at all. But I think it is evidence that, in some areas, women are simply not an oppressed minority in the workplace and to carry on with this narrative is divisive and counter productive. The remaining pockets of sexism and misogyny should be tackled, but under the banner of gender equality, rather than through perpetrating the idea that all of society is inherently sexist.
The view from a particular industry can be very different what other people see.
In a lot of white collar work, yes the world has changed. Elsewhere, not so much. Just getting some dgeneder balance in the employees is a *start* - not the end.
Hell, the NHS apparently has big problems with sexism and racism - which is nuts when you look at the makeup of the staff.
I think hoping for a new direction for Russia even if Putin goes is unlikely.
The vast majority of Russians are nationalist and authoritarian, at the last Presidential election 77% voted for Putin and in second place with 11% was the candidate of the Communist Party.
There are few liberals and outside of the most wealthy parts of St Petersburg and Moscow far more Russians are deeply suspicious of the West and NATO expansion and in favour of the theory if a greater Russia than opposed.
The best that can be hoped for for now is that Russia can be pushed back to the most pro Russian Dombas region of Ukraine while the majority of the country manages to fight off the Russian advance and retain its independence
Aren't you missing the fact that there were no free and fair elections in Russia?
Putin would probably still have been elected with free and fair elections, although it would have been a lot closer. That seems to be the consensus of the articles I've read on the subject.
How can we possibly know that?
Part of free and fair elections requires a free press, a free opposition and the right to free assembly. Russia doesn't have any of that.
When Putin's enemies are either murdered or jailed, when the media is pure propaganda, then whether people are free to put an X in his or anyone else's box isn't what free elections are all about.
You give Ukraine the planes, no you give Ukraine the planes.
Either this some next level mind game tactic, or two countries , part of the strongest millitary alliance in history, are scared to anger a guy, who’s getting bullied by Ukrainian farmers. https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1501338401689280516
I think it is important to recognise that the situation is increasingly dynamic. Tickets on the buses from St. Petersburg to Tallinn routes are selling for hundreds, even thousands of Euros. Every train or bus is full, so it is clear than large numbers of Russians are getting out as quickly as they can.
Friends over the border are reporting that panic buying has literally emptied supermarkets, and the availability of foreign goods as basically stopped. The banking system is under considerable pressure as people try to retrieve whatever cash they can get. Hard currency has disappeared from the banking system and a black market for hard currency offers rates for cash that are way below whatever official market rates may be. Industry is discovering just how integrated into western supply chains that Russia is. In a matter of maybe three months large chunks of Russian industry will no longer be able to function.
It is only now that the majority of Russians are beginning to sense that there is something seriously wrong. The Russian media continues to push the propaganda bullshit of the regime, but rumours of horrific losses are beginning to cut through, albeit very slowly.
In Tallinn, Blinken came last night and continued to make the point that any attack in this direction would be answered with full force. In fact the Baltic now feels like a pretty safe place to be and neither does it feel like the "West Berlin" of Richard Milnes piece in the FT today. More troops and air cover are coming, and in any event the nearest viable Russian attack force is over a thousand miles away.
We are bedding down for a long crisis, with preparations for long stays for the Ukrainian refugees, it will be a struggle to cope with large numbers, given that the population of Estonia is only 1.3 million. Yet, the country has come together, with even the Russian speakers now recognising that Putin is our collective enemy. The horror at the barbaric actions of the Russian army is deeply felt, and Ukrainian colours are everywhere.
This crisis might last quite a while. The popularity of the PM, Kaja Kallas, has rocketed and many have said to me how relieved they are that she is in charge. All the attempts by Putinist subversion to promote the populist right wing over the past few years have come to nothing.
Estonia is ready to deal with whatever next this crisis throws up.
Thanks for a great post as usual.
One question, are there any concerns about any of the Russians entering Estonia or is everyone convinced that they are genuinely anti-Putin and trying to flee from him?
My take on Cicero's excellent post is that the crisis is going to wipe out the Russian middle class, such as it is - they'll either emigrate or be ruined - and they'll be left with oligarchs and lots of sullen workers.
There's a real possibility it becomes another North Korea.
I think hoping for a new direction for Russia even if Putin goes is unlikely.
The vast majority of Russians are nationalist and authoritarian, at the last Presidential election 77% voted for Putin and in second place with 11% was the candidate of the Communist Party.
There are few liberals and outside of the most wealthy parts of St Petersburg and Moscow far more Russians are deeply suspicious of the West and NATO expansion and in favour of the theory if a greater Russia than opposed.
The best that can be hoped for for now is that Russia can be pushed back to the most pro Russian Dombas region of Ukraine while the majority of the country manages to fight off the Russian advance and retain its independence
Aren't you missing the fact that there were no free and fair elections in Russia?
There were competitive multi party national elections at both Presidential and parliamentary level.
Pro western liberal parties got virtually nowhere. The vast majority of Russians either are Nationalists who vote for Putin and his United Russia party or for Zhirinovsky or they are Communists who miss the USSR and still vote for the Communist Party
So whilst I get that the right are delighted that Bercow has been found to be a bully and disgraced, I am confused as to how the same people can also be delighted that Patel has been found to be a bully and remains Home Secretary.
Standards apply equally or they are not standards.
It just shows up the left for being just as willing to turn a blind eye as the right. I sense a parallel with Salmond.
This is more of a problem for the "good guys"; no one expects the Tories to be saints (especially this iteration).
Bearing in mind of course that Bercow was Conservative Party member and MP for 29 years and a Labour member for 12 months or less. If someone is a bully they tend to show those characteristics right through their lives.
Boris Johnson is turning away Ukranian refugees to appease his anti-immigrant base support and shore up votes for the next election, according to a former Conservative minister.
The 'hard' problem is this: it is not all about Putin. His leadership and regime is supported by a vast majority. What we are seeing is in part the will of the people. In the end, the will and resolve of its people, and their imperial delusions and claims over large parts of Europe, have to be broken. I think it is an error to think that this is necessarily over if/when Putin and Lavrov get removed.
I am very pessimistic. I doubt that even this proposal would work. Russia and its delusions need to be defeated and be seen to be defeated, if there is to be even a chance of a reset. But how on earth is that going to happen?
I fear that Russia will retreat into its Stalinist past, Ukraine will be destroyed in the way that Syria was destroyed, people will die in the most appalling circumstances and those who have got out will stay out for much longer than we or they anticipate.
It will be a new Cold War and we will be lucky if the hot war in Ukraine does not extend elsewhere.
I mainly wrote this to see if there was any possible way out and in response to the discussion the other day about possible solutions over Crimea etc.
To cheer myself up even further, given that Sellafield and BaE are not a million miles from where I'm living, we're certainly prime targets for a nuclear strike. Still, better than surviving in an irradiated wasteland I suppose.
Dictators underestimate the strength of democracies because they see only weakness in leaders who submit themselves to the risk of regime change in free elections. They see robust oppositions and free press as vulnerabilities to the system, making it harder to control from the top. They do not realise that those are the qualities behind the resilience and adaptability that have made liberal democracy the most successful model for organising society in the history of human civilisation.
There is a reason why young, educated Russians with access to the truth are leaving. They know what happens in the end when a dictator stakes everything on a bet that the future belongs to militarised nationalist delusion. It is a bet Putin loses. He loses faster if he is wrong about the willingness of citizens in free democracies to make sacrifices and withstand some economic pain to help their neighbours and defend their way of life. I think he is wrong. I hope he is wrong
This is related to a debate I've had many times with @Leon regarding "divisions" and "wokeness" and all the other nonsense he's obsessed with.
Russia actively promotes divisions and discord in the west because they think it makes us weak, and Leon agrees. I fundamentally disagree. Our free debate, our willingness to challenge ourselves, to perpetually evolve thanks to the way the young always present challenges to the old, the vulnerable challenge the strong, the opposition challenge the government etc . . . that is our greatest strength, not our weakness.
It is what prevents us from turning into ossified, kleptocratic and yes sclerotic regimes like Putin's Russia with Potemkin militaries and grand delusions of greatness.
As long as we challenge ourselves more than our enemies can ever challenge us, our diversity of opinion has a deep groundswell of hidden strength there - not weakness.
In feeding our divisions, while shutting down their own, Russia only challenges us to be stronger not weaker - and Russia only weakens itself.
There's definitely some room for middle ground on this. An America torn apart between Trumpist loons and AOC types is not as strong and united as it could be. We need a battle of ideas but we also need people who are not convinced that their opponents are inherently scum and have nothing to contribute.
People are actually dying terrible deaths in Ukraine at the hands of Russia, but everyone is talking about queues at the french border, delays in visa processing, and bureaucratic incompetence on the part of the Home office.
So the proportionately greater concern is with the fate of the people who are already safe, rather than those who are still at risk of death. War crimes are yesterdays news, todays villain is Priti Patel.
This all plays wonderfully in to Putin's hands, as we have been goaded back in to fighting the culture wars about immigration. We are being manipulated and used, like fools and idiots. We need to focus on the bigger questions in this conflict.
Unlike other wars, which occur far away between distant peoples, here the refugee issues are absolutely peripheral to the conflict - because it is a conflict we are involved in. Talking about refugees is to just engage in a form of escapism and denial about how serious the situation is, and what it means for our future.
It is a form of escapism, because our immigration rules are entirely under our control, and so we don't have to deal with the difficult questions around the limits of our power that the war poses. We wouldn't be talking about it if the government did the obvious thing and dropped the requirement for a visa, of course.
On the war itself, we seem to be at the limit of what we can do while not engaging in direct conflict with the Russians, with the exception of an immediate cessation of fossil fuel imports.
I would like to hear people talking about expanding our military capabilities, but the government seem unwilling to say anything until the details for the spring statement are settled, and Labour isn't going there.
Obviously we also have to think about reducing our economic dependence on China, because this is a warning of what they might do in the future.
The 'hard' problem is this: it is not all about Putin. His leadership and regime is supported by a vast majority. What we are seeing is in part the will of the people. In the end, the will and resolve of its people, and their imperial delusions and claims over large parts of Europe, have to be broken. I think it is an error to think that this is necessarily over if/when Putin and Lavrov get removed.
I am very pessimistic. I doubt that even this proposal would work. Russia and its delusions need to be defeated and be seen to be defeated, if there is to be even a chance of a reset. But how on earth is that going to happen?
I fear that Russia will retreat into its Stalinist past, Ukraine will be destroyed in the way that Syria was destroyed, people will die in the most appalling circumstances and those who have got out will stay out for much longer than we or they anticipate.
It will be a new Cold War and we will be lucky if the hot war in Ukraine does not extend elsewhere.
I mainly wrote this to see if there was any possible way out and in response to the discussion the other day about possible solutions over Crimea etc.
To cheer myself up even further, given that Sellafield and BaE are not a million miles from where I'm living, we're certainly prime targets for a nuclear strike. Still, better than surviving in an irradiated wasteland I suppose.
Most of the Lake District, especially towards Carlisle is actually however more likely to survive a nuclear attack than 90% of the rest of the UK
Perhaps worth analysing why Parliament was so dysfunctional that it chose him as speaker. Perhaps also think about a proven bully remains in charge of the Home Office. There is a lot wrong with a system that promotes bully's.
A little late to reply but the Parliament that chose him was four Parliaments back now. David Cameron (remember him) was leader of the opposition when Bercow was first elected. Yes, yes, he was technically reelected at each start, but removing a sitting Speaker is very difficult indeed.
I think it is important to recognise that the situation is increasingly dynamic. Tickets on the buses from St. Petersburg to Tallinn routes are selling for hundreds, even thousands of Euros. Every train or bus is full, so it is clear than large numbers of Russians are getting out as quickly as they can.
Friends over the border are reporting that panic buying has literally emptied supermarkets, and the availability of foreign goods as basically stopped. The banking system is under considerable pressure as people try to retrieve whatever cash they can get. Hard currency has disappeared from the banking system and a black market for hard currency offers rates for cash that are way below whatever official market rates may be. Industry is discovering just how integrated into western supply chains that Russia is. In a matter of maybe three months large chunks of Russian industry will no longer be able to function.
It is only now that the majority of Russians are beginning to sense that there is something seriously wrong. The Russian media continues to push the propaganda bullshit of the regime, but rumours of horrific losses are beginning to cut through, albeit very slowly.
In Tallinn, Blinken came last night and continued to make the point that any attack in this direction would be answered with full force. In fact the Baltic now feels like a pretty safe place to be and neither does it feel like the "West Berlin" of Richard Milnes piece in the FT today. More troops and air cover are coming, and in any event the nearest viable Russian attack force is over a thousand miles away.
We are bedding down for a long crisis, with preparations for long stays for the Ukrainian refugees, it will be a struggle to cope with large numbers, given that the population of Estonia is only 1.3 million. Yet, the country has come together, with even the Russian speakers now recognising that Putin is our collective enemy. The horror at the barbaric actions of the Russian army is deeply felt, and Ukrainian colours are everywhere.
This crisis might last quite a while. The popularity of the PM, Kaja Kallas, has rocketed and many have said to me how relieved they are that she is in charge. All the attempts by Putinist subversion to promote the populist right wing over the past few years have come to nothing.
Estonia is ready to deal with whatever next this crisis throws up.
Thanks for a great post as usual.
One question, are there any concerns about any of the Russians entering Estonia or is everyone convinced that they are genuinely anti-Putin and trying to flee from him?
My take on Cicero's excellent post is that the crisis is going to wipe out the Russian middle class, such as it is - they'll either emigrate or be ruined - and they'll be left with oligarchs and lots of sullen workers.
I'm sure you're right and certainly hope so but you really never know in this murky world. I suspect Putin has too much on his plate to be thinking about slipping in people to destabilise the Baltics right now.
I think hoping for a new direction for Russia even if Putin goes is unlikely.
The vast majority of Russians are nationalist and authoritarian, at the last Presidential election 77% voted for Putin and in second place with 11% was the candidate of the Communist Party.
There are few liberals and outside of the most wealthy parts of St Petersburg and Moscow far more Russians are deeply suspicious of the West and NATO expansion and in favour of the theory if a greater Russia than opposed.
The best that can be hoped for for now is that Russia can be pushed back to the most pro Russian Dombas region of Ukraine while the majority of the country manages to fight off the Russian advance and retain its independence
Aren't you missing the fact that there were no free and fair elections in Russia?
Putin would probably still have been elected with free and fair elections, although it would have been a lot closer. That seems to be the consensus of the articles I've read on the subject.
How can we possibly know that?
Part of free and fair elections requires a free press, a free opposition and the right to free assembly. Russia doesn't have any of that.
When Putin's enemies are either murdered or jailed, when the media is pure propaganda, then whether people are free to put an X in his or anyone else's box isn't what free elections are all about.
Ask Alexi Navalny, who was arrested, barred from standing at the election and then poisoned, all for the crime of being a popular political opponent of Putin.
Michigan GOP candidate says he tells daughters to ‘lie back and enjoy it’ if rape is inevitable Robert Regan, a Republican favored to win a seat in the Michigan House, made the comments while trying to make an analogy about abandoning efforts to decertify the 2020 election https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/08/gop-candidate-rape-2020-election/
The 'hard' problem is this: it is not all about Putin. His leadership and regime is supported by a vast majority. What we are seeing is in part the will of the people. In the end, the will and resolve of its people, and their imperial delusions and claims over large parts of Europe, have to be broken. I think it is an error to think that this is necessarily over if/when Putin and Lavrov get removed.
I am very pessimistic. I doubt that even this proposal would work. Russia and its delusions need to be defeated and be seen to be defeated, if there is to be even a chance of a reset. But how on earth is that going to happen?
I fear that Russia will retreat into its Stalinist past, Ukraine will be destroyed in the way that Syria was destroyed, people will die in the most appalling circumstances and those who have got out will stay out for much longer than we or they anticipate.
It will be a new Cold War and we will be lucky if the hot war in Ukraine does not extend elsewhere.
I mainly wrote this to see if there was any possible way out and in response to the discussion the other day about possible solutions over Crimea etc.
To cheer myself up even further, given that Sellafield and BaE are not a million miles from where I'm living, we're certainly prime targets for a nuclear strike. Still, better than surviving in an irradiated wasteland I suppose.
Most of the Lake District, especially towards Carlisle is actually however more likely to survive a nuclear attack than 90% of the rest of the UK
That map it literal garbage - even with an attack on the UK of a dozen strategic level warheads (and the Russians like 'em big), the lethal fallout zones merge.
Everyone dies. Unless you plan on being elsewhere for a few hundred years.
So whilst I get that the right are delighted that Bercow has been found to be a bully and disgraced, I am confused as to how the same people can also be delighted that Patel has been found to be a bully and remains Home Secretary.
Standards apply equally or they are not standards.
It just shows up the left for being just as willing to turn a blind eye as the right. I sense a parallel with Salmond.
This is more of a problem for the "good guys"; no one expects the Tories to be saints (especially this iteration).
Bearing in mind of course that Bercow was Conservative Party member and MP for 29 years and a Labour member for 12 months or less. If someone is a bully they tend to show those characteristics right through their lives.
He has been a Bercow Party member throughout. That's all he's really cared about.
The 'hard' problem is this: it is not all about Putin. His leadership and regime is supported by a vast majority. What we are seeing is in part the will of the people. In the end, the will and resolve of its people, and their imperial delusions and claims over large parts of Europe, have to be broken. I think it is an error to think that this is necessarily over if/when Putin and Lavrov get removed.
I am very pessimistic. I doubt that even this proposal would work. Russia and its delusions need to be defeated and be seen to be defeated, if there is to be even a chance of a reset. But how on earth is that going to happen?
I fear that Russia will retreat into its Stalinist past, Ukraine will be destroyed in the way that Syria was destroyed, people will die in the most appalling circumstances and those who have got out will stay out for much longer than we or they anticipate.
It will be a new Cold War and we will be lucky if the hot war in Ukraine does not extend elsewhere.
I mainly wrote this to see if there was any possible way out and in response to the discussion the other day about possible solutions over Crimea etc.
To cheer myself up even further, given that Sellafield and BaE are not a million miles from where I'm living, we're certainly prime targets for a nuclear strike. Still, better than surviving in an irradiated wasteland I suppose.
Most of the Lake District, especially towards Carlisle is actually however more likely to survive a nuclear attack than 90% of the rest of the UK
There used to be substantial nuclear warhead storage facilities at Longtown, just outside Carlisle. If they are still there they would be a definite target.
This morning you told the British public you literally can't define what a woman is. What's the plan, lift up random objects until you find one that rattles?
Rowling was responding to Annelise Dodds, no? In any case, Labour are in a royal mess over this. Like with Brexit, they're trying and failing to ride two horses on an issue where opinions are polarised.
I think it's different to Brexit because it involves two very small minorities, who are very intensely angry. Other people may have opinions one way or the other, but it doesn't really motivate them. In contrast, at least 60% of the population had quite a strong opinion on Brexit, at least after the referendum.
The correct way to play the politics in a situation like this is not to ride either of the horses.
The problem is that you can't simply ignore the issue, because decisions are being made that do come down on one side or the other.
This morning you told the British public you literally can't define what a woman is. What's the plan, lift up random objects until you find one that rattles?
Cooper's is the correct response. You have a bunch of people using a word in subtly different ways in subtly different contexts and trying really hard not to see the other people's point of view. If you use it in one of the ways they don't themselves use they get really, really angry. So STFU.
This whole debate is a fruitless distraction from the real inequalities that women still face. I went to a work dinner last night *on International Women's Day* at which there were 18 men and no women, unless you count the ones serving the food.
I've worked in mixed gender teams for the last 13 years, and the majority of my managers have been women. My current team was, at one point, entirely female apart from me. It hasn't been a problem for me at all. But I think it is evidence that, in some areas, women are simply not an oppressed minority in the workplace and to carry on with this narrative is divisive and counter productive. The remaining pockets of sexism and misogyny should be tackled, but under the banner of gender equality, rather than through perpetrating the idea that all of society is inherently sexist.
The view from a particular industry can be very different what other people see.
In a lot of white collar work, yes the world has changed. Elsewhere, not so much. Just getting some dgeneder balance in the employees is a *start* - not the end.
Hell, the NHS apparently has big problems with sexism and racism - which is nuts when you look at the makeup of the staff.
Yes - I do see it, absolutely. I've also seen how it is in male dominated environments and how they need to change, as I worked in a city firm 13 years ago like this and one of the reasons I quit was that I found it uncomfortable.
But I think it is bizarre that it is suddenly seen as positive to start boasting about being "majority" or "all" female teams. Another phenomenon, is that the most vocal allies to womens groups in my own industry (they still exist and are actually flourishing) are successful men, who still occupy most of the very senior roles.
My suspicion is that it has got to the point where men are deterred from entering the industry at all, or they leave after a short time, as they percieve that they are unwelcome and discriminated against. This is not helpful, because there is a massive skill shortage.
If the government is worried about Britain not being able to cope with too many Ukrainian refugees maybe they should open up a register for people who are willing to put up refugees in their own home.
Mrs P. and I had the conversation a few days ago and would be willing to do that. Spoke to our neighbour jyesterday and he and his wife had been thinking exactly the same.
I appreciate that's a short to medium-term solution but I very much doubt the government would face any major backlash for accepting hundreds of thousands of refugees.
would you do the same for Afghans (genuine question?)
The 'hard' problem is this: it is not all about Putin. His leadership and regime is supported by a vast majority. What we are seeing is in part the will of the people. In the end, the will and resolve of its people, and their imperial delusions and claims over large parts of Europe, have to be broken. I think it is an error to think that this is necessarily over if/when Putin and Lavrov get removed.
I am very pessimistic. I doubt that even this proposal would work. Russia and its delusions need to be defeated and be seen to be defeated, if there is to be even a chance of a reset. But how on earth is that going to happen?
I fear that Russia will retreat into its Stalinist past, Ukraine will be destroyed in the way that Syria was destroyed, people will die in the most appalling circumstances and those who have got out will stay out for much longer than we or they anticipate.
It will be a new Cold War and we will be lucky if the hot war in Ukraine does not extend elsewhere.
I mainly wrote this to see if there was any possible way out and in response to the discussion the other day about possible solutions over Crimea etc.
To cheer myself up even further, given that Sellafield and BaE are not a million miles from where I'm living, we're certainly prime targets for a nuclear strike. Still, better than surviving in an irradiated wasteland I suppose.
On the upside, we might well decide to disconnect from China as well. I think this might be a fear for them - that given we can disconnect from Russia - what if we stop getting *all* the tat from China?
The other point is that the Chinese will be watching what is happening financially, with er.... interest. For years I've been saying that the Chinese money tied up in American debt is a hostage over Taiwan. If China invaded, US could simply tear up the debt, under existing rules/traditions in armed conflicts....
Comments
She is a hopeless minister and not fit for purpose
But Bercow was an utter embarrassment in his media interviews yesterday
Good riddance and I hope you are not suggesting that you are disappointed in the finding
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/09/ernest-shackleton-wrecked-ship-endurance-antarctic
"The wreck of Sir Ernest Shackleton’s ship has been found off the coast of Antarctica, according to the Falklands Maritime Heritage Trust.
Endurance had not been seen since it was crushed by ice and sank in the Weddell Sea in 1915, and last month the Endurance22 Expedition set off from Cape Town, South Africa, a month after the 100th anniversary of Shackleton’s death on a mission to locate it.
Endurance was found at a depth of 3,008 metres and approximately four miles south of the position originally recorded by the ship’s captain, Frank Worsley, the trust said."
They are as good as anything I am picking up from the mainstream media.
There is a reason why young, educated Russians with access to the truth are leaving. They know what happens in the end when a dictator stakes everything on a bet that the future belongs to militarised nationalist delusion. It is a bet Putin loses. He loses faster if he is wrong about the willingness of citizens in free democracies to make sacrifices and withstand some economic pain to help their neighbours and defend their way of life. I think he is wrong. I hope he is wrong
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/09/vladimir-putin-west-downfall-dictator-democracies
Either she is a flat out liar like the PM, or massively incompetent like the PM. Or both, like the PM.
I am involved in several campaigns (unrelated to this) where I deal with Govt departments. My experience is the only thing I see them ever working hard on is to stop stuff happening. They work very hard at that.
I also see that, after oil and gold, charcoal briquettes represent Russia's biggest export. So we need a BBQ boycott this summer.....
But he remained sunk in gloom, and huddled back in the chair. Presently: “About these wars, the ones after the Boer War, I mean. What happened to the great States of Europe? Is Russia still the danger?”
“We are all very worried about her.”
“We always were in my day, and in Dizzy’s before me. Is there still a Tsar?”
“Yes, but he is not a Romanoff. It’s another family. He is much more powerful, and much more despotic.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/03/08/grant-shapps-impounds-private-jet-linked-roman-abramovichs-oligarch/
https://twitter.com/maxfras/status/1501462840120643585
Moldova:
- free food from Europe's poorest country
- PM meets refugees on the border
Poland:
- no passports required to enter
- free train travel
- free homestays
UK:
- You can now use Paypal & Diners Club to pay for your visa application online!
Unfortunately, I doubt if Putin would opt for a quiet retirement holed up in some grandiose palace. This will only truly end with his demise imo.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/09/putins-invasion-logistical-nightmare/
If the Russian elite feel it is time to topple Putin and can do so, fantastic, but if Zelensky thinks the best answer is to deal with Putin, formally lose Crimea to Russia and perhaps an independent Donbass and Luhansk in return for an end to the war, we should support him.
Yvette Cooper tells @TimesRadio that she does not “want to go down the rabbit hole of defining what a woman is”, so she doesn’t.
https://twitter.com/StigAbell/status/1501469718779154438
Which JK Rowling reacted to yesterday:
This morning you told the British public you literally can't define what a woman is. What's the plan, lift up random objects until you find one that rattles?
https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/1501287100343361537
What I would like - as always - is standards applied equally. Whilst it is right that Bercow is unfit for his requisite peerage, it is also right that Lebedev and various other Tory donors are unfit for their bought peerages. So when the remaining Big Dog fans sneer about how wrong we were to say it was vindictive to withhold it against Bercow I have to point to the kind of people who have been given them and conclude that it WAS. None of these people should be in the Lords, so singling out only Bercow demonstrates vindictiveness and stupidity.
Priti Patel was fired for running her own private foreign policy - which makes her a traitor at best or treasonous at worst had it been war time. She is a proven bully. She is a proven liar. And yet there she is in the Home Office protected from sanction by the very same people who crow on about Bercow.
Lets get the bullies out of our politics. Lets get the lies out of our politics.
The vast majority of Russians are nationalist and authoritarian, at the last Presidential election 77% voted for Putin and in second place with 11% was the candidate of the Communist Party.
There are few liberals and outside of the most wealthy parts of St Petersburg and Moscow far more Russians are deeply suspicious of the West and NATO expansion and in favour of the theory if a greater Russia than opposed.
The best that can be hoped for for now is that Russia can be pushed back to the most pro Russian Dombas region of Ukraine while the majority of the country manages to fight off the Russian advance and retain its independence
Mrs P. and I had the conversation a few days ago and would be willing to do that. Spoke to our neighbour jyesterday and he and his wife had been thinking exactly the same.
I appreciate that's a short to medium-term solution but I very much doubt the government would face any major backlash for accepting hundreds of thousands of refugees.
The question is, does Putin really believe any of it?
So the proportionately greater concern is with the fate of the people who are already safe, rather than those who are still at risk of death. War crimes are yesterdays news, todays villain is Priti Patel.
This all plays wonderfully in to Putin's hands, as we have been goaded back in to fighting the culture wars about immigration. We are being manipulated and used, like fools and idiots. We need to focus on the bigger questions in this conflict.
Unlike other wars, which occur far away between distant peoples, here the refugee issues are absolutely peripheral to the conflict - because it is a conflict we are involved in. Talking about refugees is to just engage in a form of escapism and denial about how serious the situation is, and what it means for our future.
She will then target 2027 when the French constitution now like the US constitution prohibits Presidents from running for a 3rd term, so this will be Macron's last campaign. He cannot run again next time
Which leaves two far more realistic scenarios. A long war of attrition where Putin slaughters the innocent and we're left either doing nothing substantial about it as whats left of Ukraine gets swallowed up as a brutal puppet state. Or as Roger Waters put it "the rusty wire that hold the cork that keeps the anger in / gives way, and suddenly its day again".
Unless we get very lucky and Putin drops dead or is dragged out and shot, or he gets bored and gives up at best we have a new cold war and the sword of Damocles hanging over our heads for another few generations, or the sword gets dropped through our heads.
I posted a week back about the coming economic calamity to face us this year and all the metrics keep getting worse. Weaning ourselves off Russian oil and gas, and having to divert cash into rebuilding our shattered armed forces is going to be very bad for a lot of people. Being told "blame Putin, its his fault" won't help pay people's bills.
"I have made it a criminal offence for ANY Russian aircraft to enter UK airspace"
https://twitter.com/grantshapps/status/1501310674911342594?s=20&t=T6uWJfSx34h8ekuYzTCw5g
I have absolutely no sympathy for them on this issue.
There was a chap at the CIA who got endless stick for pointing out things such as the claimed yield from wheat per share hectare didn't add up. It also didn't match what you saw if you took a drive in the Russian countryside.
I immediately checked the internet to make sure the world was still alive.
Sign of the times.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j7NTLZDd4tc
Offered merely for interest and in the SeanT sense of 'simply sharing concerns'.
The correct way to play the politics in a situation like this is not to ride either of the horses.
If a vocal minority (or majority for that matter) started claiming the Sun orbited the Earth, I wouldn't have any sympathy for a party which tried to appease them.
David Cameron (remember him) was leader of the opposition when Bercow was first elected. Yes, yes, he was technically reelected at each start, but removing a sitting Speaker is very difficult indeed.
Was the 2005-2010 Parliament really that bad?
Western democracies are moving at speed - and some countries are faster than others eg UK on military aid (not so long ago the RAF was having to skirt Germany) and aircraft and shipping bans than others, while slower on refugees. We’ll all get there in the end.
One question, are there any concerns about any of the Russians entering Estonia or is everyone convinced that they are genuinely anti-Putin and trying to flee from him?
This is related to a debate I've had many times with @Leon regarding "divisions" and "wokeness" and all the other nonsense he's obsessed with.
Russia actively promotes divisions and discord in the west because they think it makes us weak, and Leon agrees. I fundamentally disagree. Our free debate, our willingness to challenge ourselves, to perpetually evolve thanks to the way the young always present challenges to the old, the vulnerable challenge the strong, the opposition challenge the government etc . . . that is our greatest strength, not our weakness.
It is what prevents us from turning into ossified, kleptocratic and yes sclerotic regimes like Putin's Russia with Potemkin militaries and grand delusions of greatness.
As long as we challenge ourselves more than our enemies can ever challenge us, our diversity of opinion has a deep groundswell of hidden strength there - not weakness.
In feeding our divisions, while shutting down their own, Russia only challenges us to be stronger not weaker - and Russia only weakens itself.
Or concentrate on the areas where we can make a difference?
Bearing in mind of course that Bercow was Conservative Party member and MP for 29 years and a Labour member for 12 months or less. If someone is a bully they tend to show those characteristics right through their lives.
In a lot of white collar work, yes the world has changed. Elsewhere, not so much. Just getting some dgeneder balance in the employees is a *start* - not the end.
Hell, the NHS apparently has big problems with sexism and racism - which is nuts when you look at the makeup of the staff.
Part of free and fair elections requires a free press, a free opposition and the right to free assembly. Russia doesn't have any of that.
When Putin's enemies are either murdered or jailed, when the media is pure propaganda, then whether people are free to put an X in his or anyone else's box isn't what free elections are all about.
Could China be the Achilles heal of the sanctions, providing Russia with the parts etc the it needs, either overtly or covertly?
Either this some next level mind game tactic, or two countries , part of the strongest millitary alliance in history, are scared to anger a guy, who’s getting bullied by Ukrainian farmers.
https://twitter.com/mrsorokaa/status/1501338401689280516
Pro western liberal parties got virtually nowhere. The vast majority of Russians either are Nationalists who vote for Putin and his United Russia party or for Zhirinovsky or they are Communists who miss the USSR and still vote for the Communist Party
I fear that Russia will retreat into its Stalinist past, Ukraine will be destroyed in the way that Syria was destroyed, people will die in the most appalling circumstances and those who have got out will stay out for much longer than we or they anticipate.
It will be a new Cold War and we will be lucky if the hot war in Ukraine does not extend elsewhere.
I mainly wrote this to see if there was any possible way out and in response to the discussion the other day about possible solutions over Crimea etc.
To cheer myself up even further, given that Sellafield and BaE are not a million miles from where I'm living, we're certainly prime targets for a nuclear strike. Still, better than surviving in an irradiated wasteland I suppose.
George Monbiot"
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/09/addiction-russian-gas-putin-military
On the war itself, we seem to be at the limit of what we can do while not engaging in direct conflict with the Russians, with the exception of an immediate cessation of fossil fuel imports.
I would like to hear people talking about expanding our military capabilities, but the government seem unwilling to say anything until the details for the spring statement are settled, and Labour isn't going there.
Obviously we also have to think about reducing our economic dependence on China, because this is a warning of what they might do in the future.
What else is there to say?
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/uk-estate-agent-publishes-bizarre-map-showing-safest-places-to-live-outside-of-nuclear-impact-zone-a3609581.html
It’s nearer 10 out of 10. Range is 98.1-98.4%
https://twitter.com/ons/status/1501490705998430208?s=21
Robert Regan, a Republican favored to win a seat in the Michigan House, made the comments while trying to make an analogy about abandoning efforts to decertify the 2020 election
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/03/08/gop-candidate-rape-2020-election/
Everyone dies. Unless you plan on being elsewhere for a few hundred years.
But I think it is bizarre that it is suddenly seen as positive to start boasting about being "majority" or "all" female teams. Another phenomenon, is that the most vocal allies to womens groups in my own industry (they still exist and are actually flourishing) are successful men, who still occupy most of the very senior roles.
My suspicion is that it has got to the point where men are deterred from entering the industry at all, or they leave after a short time, as they percieve that they are unwelcome and discriminated against. This is not helpful, because there is a massive skill shortage.
The other point is that the Chinese will be watching what is happening financially, with er.... interest. For years I've been saying that the Chinese money tied up in American debt is a hostage over Taiwan. If China invaded, US could simply tear up the debt, under existing rules/traditions in armed conflicts....