Still an issue in some parts of the world. eg South Korea, once the poster boy of Covid control. They have just announced an extraordinary 342,000 new cases in one day, their highest ever, and one of the absolute biggest daily caseloads reported anywhere - eg India peaked about 400,000 a day, Brazil at about 250,000, and they are both vastly bigger than S Korea
it must be Omicron (BA2?) combined with a lack of prior immunity
And it is not some innocent explosion of mild colds, death rates are also shooting up dramatically (158 today, whereas S Korea is used to single digit death rates per day)
Combined with the 5th wave Covid calamity we are seeing in Hong Kong, this is deeply ominous for China.
They have zero prior immunity. As they keep telling us, proudly. If Omicron BA2 gets in to China, then it could be hellish for them; and it must be likely that it will do so, if it can easily cause such havoc in quarantined Hong Kong
Russian historian on WATO sounding deranged. Putin has prevented a nuclear war, because Ukraine has the bomb almost ready to launch. Do they believe this, I wonder? Regardless, the psychology is fascinating. As is the belief anyone will buy this. The problem with fake news is it becomes less effective.over time. Because people simply shrug and say fake news. Haven't the Russians factored that in? Apparently not.
Israeli officials saying there may be a softening of positions on both sides. Ukraine with regards to Nato and Russia saying it merely wants to demilitarise Donbass.
Might suit both Russia and Ukraine / the West for the conflict to stop quite soon and be negotiated out. For Eastern Europe, if it stops now it will be remembered like the winter war, a salutary lesson to Russia not to get over-confident and a deterrent against future adventures. It also means most of Ukraine remains intact or at least rebuildable. For Russia it ends before too many body bags return home and public disillusionment ratchets up, and gives them the chance to say "job done". For the wider West it stops us short of entering into a wider potentially nuclear war, and gives us time and space to phase out economic dependence on Russian commodities.
The trouble is if Ukraine concedes something substantial then Putin might be seen to have won and that's a terrible precedent. There may be ways to give Ukraine security guarantees without Nato membership. More defensive weapons/aircraft, a demilitarised zone or something similar.
I think hoping for a new direction for Russia even if Putin goes is unlikely.
The vast majority of Russians are nationalist and authoritarian, at the last Presidential election 77% voted for Putin and in second place with 11% was the candidate of the Communist Party.
There are few liberals and outside of the most wealthy parts of St Petersburg and Moscow far more Russians are deeply suspicious of the West and NATO expansion and in favour of the theory if a greater Russia than opposed.
The best that can be hoped for for now is that Russia can be pushed back to the most pro Russian Dombas region of Ukraine while the majority of the country manages to fight off the Russian advance and retain its independence
Aren't you missing the fact that there were no free and fair elections in Russia?
Putin would probably still have been elected with free and fair elections, although it would have been a lot closer. That seems to be the consensus of the articles I've read on the subject.
Its often said, but I think Kasparov for one has pointed out it's a nonsense suggestion - Putib hasn't risked that donuts impossible to know if he truly would have managed it. He definitely has popularity, but the 'hed have won anyway' is unknowable.
'Putib hasn't risked that donuts impossible' strong candidate for best autocorrect of the day,
The term autocorrect is surely the biggest mistake here?
Extinction Rebellion have said they're planning a new wave of protests to cause "maximum nonviolent disruption" at UK oil refineries next month.
Comes amid reports that average energy bills could hit £4,000 this year and concerns about Britain's energy security.
The justification?
"The Ukraine conflict and the climate crisis have the same underlying cause: the imperialist pursuit of land and resources for profit, concentrating power in the hands of toxic individuals and corporations."
Getting off fossil fuels is a good long-term solution, but we need more domestic hydrocarbons not less for the transition, instead of relying upon Russian and Middle Eastern exports.
These idiots would never go and protest in Russia.
The problem is really just that XR want everything to be very simple, do X, dont do Y and everything else is subordinate to that.
Problem is that life just isnt that simple. Yes that is also used as an excuse to do nothing but it's still true. Sometimes you need slightly counterintuitive options to realise a larger goal.
The renewable energy and climate change debate is where US was on slavery 1860. We've got a whole section of society who find it inconceivable to conceive of the destruction of the potential wealth represented by fossil fuels in the ground.
Hopefully the societal division will also become as bitter and violent as it did in 1860s America.
There are places between do nothing and do everything, and the answer isnt equidistant between them. Pretending it's only those two options, or something at the mid point, is something only the deeply dishonest do.
As much as you claim to want to see that bitterness and violence it's not necessary. Disruption? Yes. I dont think as much would be done without the passionate obsession of campaigners, they've really advanced the conversation. But acting like any shade of grey at all, just one even, is akin to not being able to contemplate change at all? No.
Its not clever and it's not moral either, it's just dishonest.
I think hoping for a new direction for Russia even if Putin goes is unlikely.
The vast majority of Russians are nationalist and authoritarian, at the last Presidential election 77% voted for Putin and in second place with 11% was the candidate of the Communist Party.
There are few liberals and outside of the most wealthy parts of St Petersburg and Moscow far more Russians are deeply suspicious of the West and NATO expansion and in favour of the theory if a greater Russia than opposed.
The best that can be hoped for for now is that Russia can be pushed back to the most pro Russian Dombas region of Ukraine while the majority of the country manages to fight off the Russian advance and retain its independence
Aren't you missing the fact that there were no free and fair elections in Russia?
Putin would probably still have been elected with free and fair elections, although it would have been a lot closer. That seems to be the consensus of the articles I've read on the subject.
Its often said, but I think Kasparov for one has pointed out it's a nonsense suggestion - Putib hasn't risked that donuts impossible to know if he truly would have managed it. He definitely has popularity, but the 'hed have won anyway' is unknowable.
'Putib hasn't risked that donuts impossible' strong candidate for best autocorrect of the day,
The term autocorrect is surely the biggest mistake here?
The bloke who invented it just died. His funfair is next Monkey.
Russian historian on WATO sounding deranged. Putin has prevented a nuclear war, because Ukraine has the bomb almost ready to launch. Do they believe this, I wonder? Regardless, the psychology is fascinating. As is the belief anyone will buy this. The problem with fake news is it becomes less effective.over time. Because people simply shrug and say fake news. Haven't the Russians factored that in? Apparently not.
This is what I don't get. Who is this kind of rubbish aimed at? I can only assume they really don't understand the west at all.
FWIW and I am not sure how much credence to give it, but there are rumours circulating here that last night that quite a few Russian soldiers died in fights *between* Russian units. Others have died of the cold and the condition of the troops is said to be pitiful, with some, and possibly many, abandoning their kit and trying to find shelter in nearby houses or barns. It may be that the northern front has reached a crisis. Perhaps this explains the new flexibility in the Russian negotiating position.
Extinction Rebellion have said they're planning a new wave of protests to cause "maximum nonviolent disruption" at UK oil refineries next month.
Comes amid reports that average energy bills could hit £4,000 this year and concerns about Britain's energy security.
The justification?
"The Ukraine conflict and the climate crisis have the same underlying cause: the imperialist pursuit of land and resources for profit, concentrating power in the hands of toxic individuals and corporations."
Getting off fossil fuels is a good long-term solution, but we need more domestic hydrocarbons not less for the transition, instead of relying upon Russian and Middle Eastern exports.
These idiots would never go and protest in Russia.
The problem is really just that XR want everything to be very simple, do X, dont do Y and everything else is subordinate to that.
Problem is that life just isnt that simple. Yes that is also used as an excuse to do nothing but it's still true. Sometimes you need slightly counterintuitive options to realise a larger goal.
The renewable energy and climate change debate is where US was on slavery 1860. We've got a whole section of society who find it inconceivable to conceive of the destruction of the potential wealth represented by fossil fuels in the ground.
Hopefully the societal division will also become as bitter and violent as it did in 1860s America.
There are places between do nothing and do everything, and the answer isnt equidistant between them. Pretending it's only those two options, or something at the mid point, is something only the deeply dishonest do.
As much as you claim to want to see that bitterness and violence it's not necessary. Disruption? Yes. I dont think as much would be done without the passionate obsession of campaigners, they've really advanced the conversation. But acting like any shade of grey at all, just one even, is akin to not being able to contemplate change at all? No.
Its not clever and it's not moral either, it's just dishonest.
It's rather like Putin's thinking - smash the world until it looks the way I want.
Still an issue in some parts of the world. eg South Korea, once the poster boy of Covid control. They have just announced an extraordinary 342,000 new cases in one day, their highest ever, and one of the absolute biggest daily caseloads reported anywhere - eg India peaked about 400,000 a day, Brazil at about 250,000, and they are both vastly bigger than S Korea
it must be Omicron (BA2?) combined with a lack of prior immunity
And it is not some innocent explosion of mild colds, death rates are also shooting up dramatically (158 today, whereas S Korea is used to single digit death rates per day)
Combined with the 5th wave Covid calamity we are seeing in Hong Kong, this is deeply ominous for China.
They have zero prior immunity. As they keep telling us, proudly. If Omicron BA2 gets in to China, then it could be hellish for them; and it must be likely that it will do so, if it can easily cause such havoc in quarantined Hong Kong
Russian historian on WATO sounding deranged. Putin has prevented a nuclear war, because Ukraine has the bomb almost ready to launch. Do they believe this, I wonder? Regardless, the psychology is fascinating. As is the belief anyone will buy this. The problem with fake news is it becomes less effective.over time. Because people simply shrug and say fake news. Haven't the Russians factored that in? Apparently not.
It was frightening - apparently intelligent, educated and well informed - completely deluded. If/when Russia loses the Dolchstoßlegende will be very potent.
I think hoping for a new direction for Russia even if Putin goes is unlikely.
The vast majority of Russians are nationalist and authoritarian, at the last Presidential election 77% voted for Putin and in second place with 11% was the candidate of the Communist Party.
There are few liberals and outside of the most wealthy parts of St Petersburg and Moscow far more Russians are deeply suspicious of the West and NATO expansion and in favour of the theory if a greater Russia than opposed.
The best that can be hoped for for now is that Russia can be pushed back to the most pro Russian Dombas region of Ukraine while the majority of the country manages to fight off the Russian advance and retain its independence
Aren't you missing the fact that there were no free and fair elections in Russia?
Putin would probably still have been elected with free and fair elections, although it would have been a lot closer. That seems to be the consensus of the articles I've read on the subject.
Its often said, but I think Kasparov for one has pointed out it's a nonsense suggestion - Putib hasn't risked that donuts impossible to know if he truly would have managed it. He definitely has popularity, but the 'hed have won anyway' is unknowable.
'Putib hasn't risked that donuts impossible' strong candidate for best autocorrect of the day,
I meant every word. Putib, a cousin to Putin, is very concerned about western influence like donut consumption.
If it will help the war effort, I will make the sacrifice of eating a whole box of doughnuts.
Lab 41% (-1) Con 34% (nc) LD 9% (nc) SNP 5% (+1) Grn 4% (+1)
Let’s see if they manage to publish their tables within BPC rules this time around.
LLG at 54%. A point down on the recent average across most pollsters. So I think the upshot is the Tories have gained back about a point or 2 in support but have maybe lost 1 or 2 to REFUK, and Labour has lost a few far left people to the Greens. The Lib Dems have been treading water but with no recent byelections there is no momentum there.
Dire Lib Dem numbers in yesterday’s YouGov:
London LD 8% (4th)
Rest of South LD 11% (3rd)
Midlands/Wales LD 8% (joint 3rd)
North LD 3% (5th)
Scotland LD 2% (joint 5th)
Rather pointless posting that, Mr Dickson. Lib Dem support is currently decidedly patchy - everybody knows that. Weak in some places, but very strong in others. That is why, as I understand it, the Labour leadership has decided to concentrate its resources on its own areas of strength, and not fight fiercely where it is the Lib Dems who are the main challengers to the sitting Tories.
Exactly, Labour would not be that bothered if they were only polling 20% in the South, if they were polling over 40% in London, the Midlands and Wales and North where their target seats mainly are.
Similarly the LDs would not be that bothered if they were polling only 5% in the Midlands and Wales and North as long as they were polling 10-20% in the South where their target seats mainly are
I think you are right, young HY. But I would go even further - to the level of individual constituencies. If a seat has a good nucleus of Lib Dem activists, then it is almost certainly going to fare better than one where these are missing. If you want a good indication of where these are, you have only to look at local government elections. If Lib Dems are active and doing well, they will be making good progress at the local government level too. A case in point is the North Shropshire constituency, of course.
As I understand it, the Conservative Party has almost given up on individual activity. Everything is now automated and impersonal. That is why they do not really know what is going on. They operate with the same level of efficiency as the baking system. Everything is fine, just as long as everything goes right. But when a problem arises, they are very slow to spot it and correct it.
As in the case of the present prime minister and his cabinet.
Russian historian on WATO sounding deranged. Putin has prevented a nuclear war, because Ukraine has the bomb almost ready to launch. Do they believe this, I wonder? Regardless, the psychology is fascinating. As is the belief anyone will buy this. The problem with fake news is it becomes less effective.over time. Because people simply shrug and say fake news. Haven't the Russians factored that in? Apparently not.
This is what I don't get. Who is this kind of rubbish aimed at? I can only assume they really don't understand the west at all.
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
Still an issue in some parts of the world. eg South Korea, once the poster boy of Covid control. They have just announced an extraordinary 342,000 new cases in one day, their highest ever, and one of the absolute biggest daily caseloads reported anywhere - eg India peaked about 400,000 a day, Brazil at about 250,000, and they are both vastly bigger than S Korea
it must be Omicron (BA2?) combined with a lack of prior immunity
And it is not some innocent explosion of mild colds, death rates are also shooting up dramatically (158 today, whereas S Korea is used to single digit death rates per day)
Combined with the 5th wave Covid calamity we are seeing in Hong Kong, this is deeply ominous for China.
They have zero prior immunity. As they keep telling us, proudly. If Omicron BA2 gets in to China, then it could be hellish for them; and it must be likely that it will do so, if it can easily cause such havoc in quarantined Hong Kong
Just to add to the joys of the world
When not if.
One of my family just contracted Omicron. Completely isolating (because of caring for an elderly relative) - literal 2 minute conversation at distance with someone who later tested positive.
Lab 41% (-1) Con 34% (nc) LD 9% (nc) SNP 5% (+1) Grn 4% (+1)
Let’s see if they manage to publish their tables within BPC rules this time around.
LLG at 54%. A point down on the recent average across most pollsters. So I think the upshot is the Tories have gained back about a point or 2 in support but have maybe lost 1 or 2 to REFUK, and Labour has lost a few far left people to the Greens. The Lib Dems have been treading water but with no recent byelections there is no momentum there.
Dire Lib Dem numbers in yesterday’s YouGov:
London LD 8% (4th)
Rest of South LD 11% (3rd)
Midlands/Wales LD 8% (joint 3rd)
North LD 3% (5th)
Scotland LD 2% (joint 5th)
National average not great but the votes are generally in the right places to be efficient. Remember that "rest of South" includes areas where the Lib Dems are probably behind even REFUK.
We're in a global crisis and there is zero coverage of the party, except for Layla's list of the 35 oligarchs in parliament, so I'm not surprised the vote is in the doldrums.
Agreed, remember 39 out of 50 of the LD top target seats for the next general election are in London and the South and East.
29 out of 50 of those target seats ie over half are in the South East and South West alone.
So as long as they are still polling over 10% in the South and get Labour tactical votes this time now Corbyn is gone, the LDs should gain some Tory seats in the South (especially as most of them voted Remain in 2016)
Yes, although I would say the LDs actually did do a pretty good squeeze job on the Labour vote in 2019 in most Con vs LD seats. For example Labour lost their deposits in Winchester, Esher and Walton and Cheltenham. They need to win over some soft Con voters or at least hope the Tory turnout is lower.
Still they are in a reasonable position relatively speaking, even in 1997 they only won about 7 seats in the Southeast.
I think they will find it harder to comeback in the Southwest at least in Cornwall (unless Andrew George gets back in) and Devon although Somerset is still more fertile ground for the LDs.
I think the LDs will win Winchester, Esher and Walton and Cheltenham at the next general election even if the Tories are re elected with a small majority.
I agree though, post Brexit the LD heartland has now shifted from the largely Leave voting Southwest to wealthy Remain areas with lots of graduates in South West London and the Home Counties.
Where the LDs still do very well in the Southwest eg Remain voting Cheltenham and Bath, demographically those areas are more similar to Surrey and Oxfordshire than old LD heartlands like Cornwall anyway
I broadly agree that a major comeback for the Lib Dems in the SW will be difficult and slow, BUT there may well be a degree of reversion to the mean in 2024 as Brexit continues to recede as a defining issue.
Chesham & Amersham is clearly in your new definition of Lib Dem heartland (with which I agree) but North Shropshire was, of course, a Leave voting constituency.
There is also a fairly good message for the Lib Dems in the SW in that so much of the levelling-up rhetoric is about northern towns, and people in the SW, which has fairly high levels of deprivation in parts, tend to feel forgotten. That "we won't go all the way and vote Labour, but don't forget about us" message worked well for the Lib Dems for many years - it won't be easily recaptured, but hasn't disappeared.
Taunton and Yeovil are probably their best bets next time, and Council results (albeit not a great indicator) suggest they are getting traction. Devon and Cornwall are probably more about getting back to some decent seconds - can't see huge shocks in 2024.
Even after the by elections the LD majority in North Shropshire is 5,925 compared to 8,028 in Chesham and Amersham.
There were also the local factors relating to Owen Patterson in North Shropshire and the national Tory lead had already fallen post partygate which it had not in the Chesham by election
Russian historian on WATO sounding deranged. Putin has prevented a nuclear war, because Ukraine has the bomb almost ready to launch. Do they believe this, I wonder? Regardless, the psychology is fascinating. As is the belief anyone will buy this. The problem with fake news is it becomes less effective.over time. Because people simply shrug and say fake news. Haven't the Russians factored that in? Apparently not.
A lot of Putin's moves seem like a parody of all the stupidest shit the Americans have done over the last 30 years.
Russian historian on WATO sounding deranged. Putin has prevented a nuclear war, because Ukraine has the bomb almost ready to launch. Do they believe this, I wonder? Regardless, the psychology is fascinating. As is the belief anyone will buy this. The problem with fake news is it becomes less effective.over time. Because people simply shrug and say fake news. Haven't the Russians factored that in? Apparently not.
This is what I don't get. Who is this kind of rubbish aimed at? I can only assume they really don't understand the west at all.
It is strange isn't it? They claim our Western democracy is a threat to Russian values and way of life. Yet they treat the people as though our attitudes are precisely the same as their own. Maybe they really just do think everyone would just love to be like Russia if only given the chance? Ironically, much the same attitude as neo-Cons in America.
Mr. Roberts, something I saw which raised a smile the other day was an extinct species of plant being brought back to life after seeds in a clay jar from millennia ago were discovered:
I think I've seen this movie. Just wait until the formerly-extinct plant jumps the fence and threatens life as we know it ...
I see that George Church's group is now thinking that when it de-extincts the woolly mammoth they will also miniature its size to more like a large dog. So we can all buy them as designer pets.
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
I wouldn't necessarily describe a soldier who is wounded after battle and immobile ready to be bayoneted as "doing well".
Still an issue in some parts of the world. eg South Korea, once the poster boy of Covid control. They have just announced an extraordinary 342,000 new cases in one day, their highest ever, and one of the absolute biggest daily caseloads reported anywhere - eg India peaked about 400,000 a day, Brazil at about 250,000, and they are both vastly bigger than S Korea
it must be Omicron (BA2?) combined with a lack of prior immunity
And it is not some innocent explosion of mild colds, death rates are also shooting up dramatically (158 today, whereas S Korea is used to single digit death rates per day)
Combined with the 5th wave Covid calamity we are seeing in Hong Kong, this is deeply ominous for China.
They have zero prior immunity. As they keep telling us, proudly. If Omicron BA2 gets in to China, then it could be hellish for them; and it must be likely that it will do so, if it can easily cause such havoc in quarantined Hong Kong
Just to add to the joys of the world
When not if.
One of my family just contracted Omicron. Completely isolating (because of caring for an elderly relative) - literal 2 minute conversation at distance with someone who later tested positive.
Everyone is going to get this.....
The question for me, as I have already had it is; will I get it again?
Talking of the fragging of officers, is it possible that Home Office civils servants are doing it to Priti Patel by deliberately creating so many examples of terrible Ukraine visa issues? I mean, they can't be that cack handed surely?
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
I wouldn't necessarily describe a soldier who is wounded after battle and immobile ready to be bayoneted as "doing well".
But I see what you were trying to do.
I was pleased with the "gold watches" touch. The gold watches symbolise their pride at having - relatively successfully - repressed Covid.
But as we know Covid does not approve of gold watches. Covid punishes hubris
Talking of the fragging of officers, is it possible that Home Office civils servants are doing it to Priti Patel by deliberately creating so many examples of terrible Ukraine visa issues? I mean, they can't be that cack handed surely?
It's deliberate. The Prittster takes flak now (and poss gets thrown under bus) vs people in GE 2024 thinking What are all these ghastly Ukrainians doing here, that's not the brexit I voted for?
Still an issue in some parts of the world. eg South Korea, once the poster boy of Covid control. They have just announced an extraordinary 342,000 new cases in one day, their highest ever, and one of the absolute biggest daily caseloads reported anywhere - eg India peaked about 400,000 a day, Brazil at about 250,000, and they are both vastly bigger than S Korea
it must be Omicron (BA2?) combined with a lack of prior immunity
And it is not some innocent explosion of mild colds, death rates are also shooting up dramatically (158 today, whereas S Korea is used to single digit death rates per day)
Combined with the 5th wave Covid calamity we are seeing in Hong Kong, this is deeply ominous for China.
They have zero prior immunity. As they keep telling us, proudly. If Omicron BA2 gets in to China, then it could be hellish for them; and it must be likely that it will do so, if it can easily cause such havoc in quarantined Hong Kong
Just to add to the joys of the world
When not if.
One of my family just contracted Omicron. Completely isolating (because of caring for an elderly relative) - literal 2 minute conversation at distance with someone who later tested positive.
Everyone is going to get this.....
Not necessarily, if you've been triple-vaxxed.
My own (unscientific) perspective is: The day after my mum died (non-covid), I spent the whole day my brother who was coughing, sneezing and feeling awful the whole time. I fully expected to catch his 'bad cold' but thankfully nothing - not a sniff(!)
Although he tested negative on LFTs, his GP suspected covid and we both think that's right, and that my 3 vaccinations protected me from catching it.
Talking of the fragging of officers, is it possible that Home Office civils servants are doing it to Priti Patel by deliberately creating so many examples of terrible Ukraine visa issues? I mean, they can't be that cack handed surely?
Alternatively, it could be that all the most able senior civil servants have escaped from the incompetent bullying regime at the Home Office, leaving the poor bloody infantry with no leadership. I believe there has been something of an exodus in recent years at senior levels.
Mr. Roberts, something I saw which raised a smile the other day was an extinct species of plant being brought back to life after seeds in a clay jar from millennia ago were discovered:
I think I've seen this movie. Just wait until the formerly-extinct plant jumps the fence and threatens life as we know it ...
I see that George Church's group is now thinking that when it de-extincts the woolly mammoth they will also miniature its size to more like a large dog. So we can all buy them as designer pets.
If you can do that with an extinct animal it's surely 10 times as easy to do it with an existing one? mini hippos, giraffes, gnus...
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
I wouldn't necessarily describe a soldier who is wounded after battle and immobile ready to be bayoneted as "doing well".
But I see what you were trying to do.
I was pleased with the "gold watches" touch. The gold watches symbolise their pride at having - relatively successfully - repressed Covid.
But as we know Covid does not approve of gold watches. Covid punishes hubris
Still an issue in some parts of the world. eg South Korea, once the poster boy of Covid control. They have just announced an extraordinary 342,000 new cases in one day, their highest ever, and one of the absolute biggest daily caseloads reported anywhere - eg India peaked about 400,000 a day, Brazil at about 250,000, and they are both vastly bigger than S Korea
it must be Omicron (BA2?) combined with a lack of prior immunity
And it is not some innocent explosion of mild colds, death rates are also shooting up dramatically (158 today, whereas S Korea is used to single digit death rates per day)
Combined with the 5th wave Covid calamity we are seeing in Hong Kong, this is deeply ominous for China.
They have zero prior immunity. As they keep telling us, proudly. If Omicron BA2 gets in to China, then it could be hellish for them; and it must be likely that it will do so, if it can easily cause such havoc in quarantined Hong Kong
Just to add to the joys of the world
When not if.
One of my family just contracted Omicron. Completely isolating (because of caring for an elderly relative) - literal 2 minute conversation at distance with someone who later tested positive.
Everyone is going to get this.....
Conversely I have just tested negative which makes me think the PB drinks was plague free.
Russian historian on WATO sounding deranged. Putin has prevented a nuclear war, because Ukraine has the bomb almost ready to launch. Do they believe this, I wonder? Regardless, the psychology is fascinating. As is the belief anyone will buy this. The problem with fake news is it becomes less effective.over time. Because people simply shrug and say fake news. Haven't the Russians factored that in? Apparently not.
She sounded quite literally deranged, or very far gone on substances. Query whether r4 deliberately ran her for LOLs or couldn't find anyone normal.
Talking of the fragging of officers, is it possible that Home Office civils servants are doing it to Priti Patel by deliberately creating so many examples of terrible Ukraine visa issues? I mean, they can't be that cack handed surely?
From the statements of an ex, who worked in Immigration law, the Immigration service was full of people who were dumb as a box of hammers. They could only follow detailed rules and would regularly just... stop if they got confused. At first, she thought they were being passive aggressive - but no, they were just dumb.
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
I dunno. Of course it is nothing compared to potential nuclear war, but Covid has not entirely disappeared, and the global case rate is now ticking up after a period of decline. We may be entering another wave, they are definitely entering another wave in east Asia. Vietnam is also reporting record case numbers: 160,000 yesterday
The big question, as ever, is will it crush health systems. Korea and Vietnam seem to be doing OK.
Hong Kong is definitely not
"Body bags, overflowing morgues and chaotic hospitals: Hong Kong’s pandemic goes critical"
The crucial issue is whether China can keep Omicron out, and, if it can't, will it be South Korea (a nasty wave but not the apocalypse) or will it be Hong Kong (a horror show)
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
I dunno. Of course it is nothing compared to potential nuclear war, but Covid has not entirely disappeared, and the global case rate is now ticking up after a period of decline. We may be entering another wave, they are definitely entering another wave in east Asia. Vietnam is also reporting record case numbers: 160,000 yesterday
The big question, as ever, is will it crush health systems. Korea and Vietnam seem to be doing OK.
Hong Kong is definitely not
"Body bags, overflowing morgues and chaotic hospitals: Hong Kong’s pandemic goes critical"
The crucial issue is whether China can keep Omicron out, and, if it can't, will it be South Korea (a nasty wave but not the apocalypse) or will it be Hong Kong (a horror show)
Still an issue in some parts of the world. eg South Korea, once the poster boy of Covid control. They have just announced an extraordinary 342,000 new cases in one day, their highest ever, and one of the absolute biggest daily caseloads reported anywhere - eg India peaked about 400,000 a day, Brazil at about 250,000, and they are both vastly bigger than S Korea
it must be Omicron (BA2?) combined with a lack of prior immunity
And it is not some innocent explosion of mild colds, death rates are also shooting up dramatically (158 today, whereas S Korea is used to single digit death rates per day)
Combined with the 5th wave Covid calamity we are seeing in Hong Kong, this is deeply ominous for China.
They have zero prior immunity. As they keep telling us, proudly. If Omicron BA2 gets in to China, then it could be hellish for them; and it must be likely that it will do so, if it can easily cause such havoc in quarantined Hong Kong
Just to add to the joys of the world
When not if.
One of my family just contracted Omicron. Completely isolating (because of caring for an elderly relative) - literal 2 minute conversation at distance with someone who later tested positive.
Everyone is going to get this.....
Conversely I have just tested negative which makes me think the PB drinks was plague free.
Among other things, it was plague free because
- I did an LFT before attending - I tested positive on the LFT - I didn't attend.
Extinction Rebellion have said they're planning a new wave of protests to cause "maximum nonviolent disruption" at UK oil refineries next month.
Comes amid reports that average energy bills could hit £4,000 this year and concerns about Britain's energy security.
The justification?
"The Ukraine conflict and the climate crisis have the same underlying cause: the imperialist pursuit of land and resources for profit, concentrating power in the hands of toxic individuals and corporations."
Getting off fossil fuels is a good long-term solution, but we need more domestic hydrocarbons not less for the transition, instead of relying upon Russian and Middle Eastern exports.
These idiots would never go and protest in Russia.
The problem is really just that XR want everything to be very simple, do X, dont do Y and everything else is subordinate to that.
Problem is that life just isnt that simple. Yes that is also used as an excuse to do nothing but it's still true. Sometimes you need slightly counterintuitive options to realise a larger goal.
The renewable energy and climate change debate is where US was on slavery 1860. We've got a whole section of society who find it inconceivable to conceive of the destruction of the potential wealth represented by fossil fuels in the ground.
Hopefully the societal division will also become as bitter and violent as it did in 1860s America.
There are places between do nothing and do everything, and the answer isnt equidistant between them. Pretending it's only those two options, or something at the mid point, is something only the deeply dishonest do.
As much as you claim to want to see that bitterness and violence it's not necessary. Disruption? Yes. I dont think as much would be done without the passionate obsession of campaigners, they've really advanced the conversation. But acting like any shade of grey at all, just one even, is akin to not being able to contemplate change at all? No.
Its not clever and it's not moral either, it's just dishonest.
Agreed. Comparing the issue to slavery is deliberate trolling.
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
I dunno. Of course it is nothing compared to potential nuclear war, but Covid has not entirely disappeared, and the global case rate is now ticking up after a period of decline. We may be entering another wave, they are definitely entering another wave in east Asia. Vietnam is also reporting record case numbers: 160,000 yesterday
The big question, as ever, is will it crush health systems. Korea and Vietnam seem to be doing OK.
Hong Kong is definitely not
"Body bags, overflowing morgues and chaotic hospitals: Hong Kong’s pandemic goes critical"
The crucial issue is whether China can keep Omicron out, and, if it can't, will it be South Korea (a nasty wave but not the apocalypse) or will it be Hong Kong (a horror show)
Flu has not entirely disappeared either and we still have a few deaths from winter flu but it does not overload the hospitals as Covid no longer does either post vaccination.
Whether China's vaccines work is a separate matter, for them the Hong Kong figures are not great but would be ironic if Covid was now largely non deadly outside China even if still deadly in China where it began
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
I dunno. Of course it is nothing compared to potential nuclear war, but Covid has not entirely disappeared, and the global case rate is now ticking up after a period of decline. We may be entering another wave, they are definitely entering another wave in east Asia. Vietnam is also reporting record case numbers: 160,000 yesterday
The big question, as ever, is will it crush health systems. Korea and Vietnam seem to be doing OK.
Hong Kong is definitely not
"Body bags, overflowing morgues and chaotic hospitals: Hong Kong’s pandemic goes critical"
The crucial issue is whether China can keep Omicron out, and, if it can't, will it be South Korea (a nasty wave but not the apocalypse) or will it be Hong Kong (a horror show)
You are in cheery mood today!
Just solidly reporting the facts, like any good flint knapper
I wish Covid had entirely disappeared, and all we had to worry about was nuclear armageddon. Unfortunately it has not disappeared. The First Horseman is dawdling, his steed is chewing tussocks of grass, and refusing to move on
We really need more analysis of the short term hit to the Russian economy. The sanctions seem impressive but what will this mean to everyday Russians now?
This long but excellent thread is helpful. Explains how Russia works as a mafia state, menacing others, and lying to itself
‘Let's discuss Russian economy. Many underestimate its dependency upon technological import. Russia's so deeply integrated into Western technological chains that severing these ties will lead to its collapse. Sanctions are already effective and can be made even more efficient🧵’
Much to chew on, but the economic takeaway is that Russia is fucked. What little machinery and tech it does produce is reliant on western (and Chinese) components. It will become seriously poor rather quickly. They might not even be able to maintain oil and gas production
Also makes the point that, as a mafia state reliant on the threat of violence, the Ukraine war was a rational act. It had worked before. But Putin underestimated the western reaction, Ukrainian resistance - and believed the lies told him, about the state of his own army
I've avidly read his output since seeing a reference in a post here. Fascinating and very convincing analysis.
Yes, excellent analysis. For anyone who is intrigued by this approach to understanding organizational and governance structures, and their relationship to how we conceive of ourselves and the world, I highly recommend Frederic Laloux's most excellent book, Reinventing Organizations
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
I dunno. Of course it is nothing compared to potential nuclear war, but Covid has not entirely disappeared, and the global case rate is now ticking up after a period of decline. We may be entering another wave, they are definitely entering another wave in east Asia. Vietnam is also reporting record case numbers: 160,000 yesterday
The big question, as ever, is will it crush health systems. Korea and Vietnam seem to be doing OK.
Hong Kong is definitely not
"Body bags, overflowing morgues and chaotic hospitals: Hong Kong’s pandemic goes critical"
The crucial issue is whether China can keep Omicron out, and, if it can't, will it be South Korea (a nasty wave but not the apocalypse) or will it be Hong Kong (a horror show)
Flu has not entirely disappeared either and we still have a few deaths from winter flu but it does not overload the hospitals as Covid no longer does either post vaccination.
Whether China's vaccines work is a separate matter, for them the Hong Kong figures are not great but would be ironic if Covid was now largely non deadly outside China even if still deadly in China where it began
If China turns into Hong Kong, that is definitely a cause for concern for everyone, because it will screw up so many supply chains as they try to lockdown the whole country, yet again
The various headwinds against the world economy right now are decidedly non-optimal
Mr. Divvie, wasn't it FDR preferring to listen to Stalin than Churchill which led to forces going NW rather than NE from the top of Italy?
Not my time period, so could be wrong, but that was my understanding.
I think so but I believe the Trident conference which was just Churchill and Roosevelt was where Overlord was decided upon (an indication that the US was in the driving seat maybe, if there was any doubt). Churchill also had a half baked plan about another front being opened in the Balkans. Pretty sure whatever formulation had taken place Poland would have been hung out to dry.
Fitzroy Maclean to Churchill in 1944 odd: I am concerned about the way internal politics are going in Yugoslavia...
Churchill: Do you intend to make Yugoslavia your home after the war?
Ironically I think Maclean may have spent some of his life in Yugolsavia after the war, I read on Wiki that Tito gave him permission to buy a house on a Dalmatian island. It's a while since I read Eastern Approaches, did Maclean encounter Waugh and Randolph on his Balkan travels?
Interesting area. Have you read Olivia Manning's Balkan Trilogy - set in wartime Rumania and Greece? Very readable with some vivid characters such as Prince Yakimov, the down-at-heel, English public school educated, refugee White Russian. Hope to start on the Levant Trilogy shortly.
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
The death rate is not calculated that way. If you're looking at today's death rate, the denominator is new cases about 2 weeks ago, not new cases today.
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
I dunno. Of course it is nothing compared to potential nuclear war, but Covid has not entirely disappeared, and the global case rate is now ticking up after a period of decline. We may be entering another wave, they are definitely entering another wave in east Asia. Vietnam is also reporting record case numbers: 160,000 yesterday
The big question, as ever, is will it crush health systems. Korea and Vietnam seem to be doing OK.
Hong Kong is definitely not
"Body bags, overflowing morgues and chaotic hospitals: Hong Kong’s pandemic goes critical"
The crucial issue is whether China can keep Omicron out, and, if it can't, will it be South Korea (a nasty wave but not the apocalypse) or will it be Hong Kong (a horror show)
Flu has not entirely disappeared either and we still have a few deaths from winter flu but it does not overload the hospitals as Covid no longer does either post vaccination.
Whether China's vaccines work is a separate matter, for them the Hong Kong figures are not great but would be ironic if Covid was now largely non deadly outside China even if still deadly in China where it began
If China turns into Hong Kong, that is definitely a cause for concern for everyone, because it will screw up so many supply chains as they try to lockdown the whole country, yet again
The various headwinds against the world economy right now are decidedly non-optimal
Mind you that also might leave the Chinese government too preoccupied to invade Taiwan, even if not great for the Chinese people or global economy
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
The death rate is not calculated that way. If you're looking at today's death rate, the denominator is new cases about 2 weeks ago, not new cases today.
There is zero evidence of any rise in hospitalisations and deaths of any significance in any western nation post vaccination no matter the case rate from Covid.
We are not going back to lockdowns or further restrictions unless a variant proves completely vaccine immune, we just get on with our lives and if we get it treat it no different to time off with flu
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
I dunno. Of course it is nothing compared to potential nuclear war, but Covid has not entirely disappeared, and the global case rate is now ticking up after a period of decline. We may be entering another wave, they are definitely entering another wave in east Asia. Vietnam is also reporting record case numbers: 160,000 yesterday
The big question, as ever, is will it crush health systems. Korea and Vietnam seem to be doing OK.
Hong Kong is definitely not
"Body bags, overflowing morgues and chaotic hospitals: Hong Kong’s pandemic goes critical"
The crucial issue is whether China can keep Omicron out, and, if it can't, will it be South Korea (a nasty wave but not the apocalypse) or will it be Hong Kong (a horror show)
Flu has not entirely disappeared either and we still have a few deaths from winter flu but it does not overload the hospitals as Covid no longer does either post vaccination.
Whether China's vaccines work is a separate matter, for them the Hong Kong figures are not great but would be ironic if Covid was now largely non deadly outside China even if still deadly in China where it began
If China turns into Hong Kong, that is definitely a cause for concern for everyone, because it will screw up so many supply chains as they try to lockdown the whole country, yet again
The various headwinds against the world economy right now are decidedly non-optimal
Might you that also might leave the Chinese government too preoccupied to invade Taiwan, even if not great for the Chinese people or global economy
It would be a brilliant narrative twist, and a superbly apt denouement, (albeit cruel) if Covid's final act on this earth was to fuck up China, royally
It would convince me that we really are living in a simulation, and the simulators have great screenwriters
Talking of the fragging of officers, is it possible that Home Office civils servants are doing it to Priti Patel by deliberately creating so many examples of terrible Ukraine visa issues? I mean, they can't be that cack handed surely?
Alternatively, it could be that all the most able senior civil servants have escaped from the incompetent bullying regime at the Home Office, leaving the poor bloody infantry with no leadership. I believe there has been something of an exodus in recent years at senior levels.
Let's be honest it has been like that for years. I think the home office has real difficulty attracting talent. Immigration enforcement just isn't where many people are keen to work.
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
I dunno. Of course it is nothing compared to potential nuclear war, but Covid has not entirely disappeared, and the global case rate is now ticking up after a period of decline. We may be entering another wave, they are definitely entering another wave in east Asia. Vietnam is also reporting record case numbers: 160,000 yesterday
The big question, as ever, is will it crush health systems. Korea and Vietnam seem to be doing OK.
Hong Kong is definitely not
"Body bags, overflowing morgues and chaotic hospitals: Hong Kong’s pandemic goes critical"
The crucial issue is whether China can keep Omicron out, and, if it can't, will it be South Korea (a nasty wave but not the apocalypse) or will it be Hong Kong (a horror show)
You are in cheery mood today!
Just solidly reporting the facts, like any good flint knapper
I wish Covid had entirely disappeared, and all we had to worry about was nuclear armageddon. Unfortunately it has not disappeared. The First Horseman is dawdling, his steed is chewing tussocks of grass, and refusing to move on
Do you need to wear a mask in a shop after armageddon?
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
I dunno. Of course it is nothing compared to potential nuclear war, but Covid has not entirely disappeared, and the global case rate is now ticking up after a period of decline. We may be entering another wave, they are definitely entering another wave in east Asia. Vietnam is also reporting record case numbers: 160,000 yesterday
The big question, as ever, is will it crush health systems. Korea and Vietnam seem to be doing OK.
Hong Kong is definitely not
"Body bags, overflowing morgues and chaotic hospitals: Hong Kong’s pandemic goes critical"
The crucial issue is whether China can keep Omicron out, and, if it can't, will it be South Korea (a nasty wave but not the apocalypse) or will it be Hong Kong (a horror show)
Flu has not entirely disappeared either and we still have a few deaths from winter flu but it does not overload the hospitals as Covid no longer does either post vaccination.
Whether China's vaccines work is a separate matter, for them the Hong Kong figures are not great but would be ironic if Covid was now largely non deadly outside China even if still deadly in China where it began
In this winter and last winter flu had almost entirely disappeared from the UK. Future winter seasons will see both Covid and Flu competing with each other however. The UK numbers are just starting to tick up again along with many other countries in Europe. In this country we have to hope our 98%+ antibody rate is going to give us a good level of protection. I would expect there to be a fresh vaccination campaign later in the year with a new vaccine version targeting the newer Covid variants.
We really need more analysis of the short term hit to the Russian economy. The sanctions seem impressive but what will this mean to everyday Russians now?
This long but excellent thread is helpful. Explains how Russia works as a mafia state, menacing others, and lying to itself
‘Let's discuss Russian economy. Many underestimate its dependency upon technological import. Russia's so deeply integrated into Western technological chains that severing these ties will lead to its collapse. Sanctions are already effective and can be made even more efficient🧵’
Much to chew on, but the economic takeaway is that Russia is fucked. What little machinery and tech it does produce is reliant on western (and Chinese) components. It will become seriously poor rather quickly. They might not even be able to maintain oil and gas production
Also makes the point that, as a mafia state reliant on the threat of violence, the Ukraine war was a rational act. It had worked before. But Putin underestimated the western reaction, Ukrainian resistance - and believed the lies told him, about the state of his own army
I've avidly read his output since seeing a reference in a post here. Fascinating and very convincing analysis.
Yes, excellent analysis. For anyone who is intrigued by this approach to understanding organizational and governance structures, and their relationship to how we conceive of ourselves and the world, I highly recommend Frederic Laloux's most excellent book, Reinventing Organizations
I've always wondered why the Mexican cartels got into avocados. I mean, avocados?!They aren't illegal and they aren't expensive. Avocados??? That thread explains why
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
I dunno. Of course it is nothing compared to potential nuclear war, but Covid has not entirely disappeared, and the global case rate is now ticking up after a period of decline. We may be entering another wave, they are definitely entering another wave in east Asia. Vietnam is also reporting record case numbers: 160,000 yesterday
The big question, as ever, is will it crush health systems. Korea and Vietnam seem to be doing OK.
Hong Kong is definitely not
"Body bags, overflowing morgues and chaotic hospitals: Hong Kong’s pandemic goes critical"
The crucial issue is whether China can keep Omicron out, and, if it can't, will it be South Korea (a nasty wave but not the apocalypse) or will it be Hong Kong (a horror show)
You are in cheery mood today!
Just solidly reporting the facts, like any good flint knapper
I wish Covid had entirely disappeared, and all we had to worry about was nuclear armageddon. Unfortunately it has not disappeared. The First Horseman is dawdling, his steed is chewing tussocks of grass, and refusing to move on
Do you need to wear a mask in a shop after armageddon?
No, you will have absorbed so much radiation anyway that wearing a mask will be futile.
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
I dunno. Of course it is nothing compared to potential nuclear war, but Covid has not entirely disappeared, and the global case rate is now ticking up after a period of decline. We may be entering another wave, they are definitely entering another wave in east Asia. Vietnam is also reporting record case numbers: 160,000 yesterday
The big question, as ever, is will it crush health systems. Korea and Vietnam seem to be doing OK.
Hong Kong is definitely not
"Body bags, overflowing morgues and chaotic hospitals: Hong Kong’s pandemic goes critical"
The crucial issue is whether China can keep Omicron out, and, if it can't, will it be South Korea (a nasty wave but not the apocalypse) or will it be Hong Kong (a horror show)
Flu has not entirely disappeared either and we still have a few deaths from winter flu but it does not overload the hospitals as Covid no longer does either post vaccination.
Whether China's vaccines work is a separate matter, for them the Hong Kong figures are not great but would be ironic if Covid was now largely non deadly outside China even if still deadly in China where it began
In this winter and last winter flu had almost entirely disappeared from the UK. Future winter seasons will see both Covid and Flu competing with each other however. The UK numbers are just starting to tick up again along with many other countries in Europe. In this country we have to hope our 98%+ antibody rate is going to give us a good level of protection. I would expect there to be a fresh vaccination campaign later in the year with a new vaccine version targeting the newer Covid variants.
There will be Covid vaccinations every winter as there are winter flu vaccines available every winter but there must be no further restrictions unless a variant proves vaccine immune
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
The death rate is not calculated that way. If you're looking at today's death rate, the denominator is new cases about 2 weeks ago, not new cases today.
OK.
23rd February confirmed cases: 209,052
The real problem with HYUFD's calculation is that it is 100x out
We really need more analysis of the short term hit to the Russian economy. The sanctions seem impressive but what will this mean to everyday Russians now?
This long but excellent thread is helpful. Explains how Russia works as a mafia state, menacing others, and lying to itself
‘Let's discuss Russian economy. Many underestimate its dependency upon technological import. Russia's so deeply integrated into Western technological chains that severing these ties will lead to its collapse. Sanctions are already effective and can be made even more efficient🧵’
Much to chew on, but the economic takeaway is that Russia is fucked. What little machinery and tech it does produce is reliant on western (and Chinese) components. It will become seriously poor rather quickly. They might not even be able to maintain oil and gas production
Also makes the point that, as a mafia state reliant on the threat of violence, the Ukraine war was a rational act. It had worked before. But Putin underestimated the western reaction, Ukrainian resistance - and believed the lies told him, about the state of his own army
I've avidly read his output since seeing a reference in a post here. Fascinating and very convincing analysis.
Yes, excellent analysis. For anyone who is intrigued by this approach to understanding organizational and governance structures, and their relationship to how we conceive of ourselves and the world, I highly recommend Frederic Laloux's most excellent book, Reinventing Organizations
I've always wondered why the Mexican cartels got into avocados. I mean, avocados?!They aren't illegal and they aren't expensive. Avocados??? That thread explains why
Someone could write a great thriller about Avocados.
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
The death rate is not calculated that way. If you're looking at today's death rate, the denominator is new cases about 2 weeks ago, not new cases today.
OK.
23rd February confirmed cases: 209,052
The real problem with HYUFD's calculation is that it is 100x out
A death rate still well below 0.005%.
I am not interested in case rate for Covid now just as I am not interested in case rate for flu.
The only figures of any relevance are deaths and hospitalisations and the figures for those are still miniscule
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
The death rate is not calculated that way. If you're looking at today's death rate, the denominator is new cases about 2 weeks ago, not new cases today.
OK.
23rd February confirmed cases: 209,052
The real problem with HYUFD's calculation is that it is 100x out
A death rate still well below 0.005%.
I am not interested in case rate for Covid now just as I am not interested in case rate for flu.
The only figures of any relevance are deaths and hospitalisations and the figures for those are still miniscule
Do you really think 583 is less than 0.005% of 209,052? Explains a lot, I suppose.
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
The death rate is not calculated that way. If you're looking at today's death rate, the denominator is new cases about 2 weeks ago, not new cases today.
OK.
23rd February confirmed cases: 209,052
The real problem with HYUFD's calculation is that it is 100x out
A death rate still well below 0.005%.
I am not interested in case rate for Covid now just as I am not interested in case rate for flu.
The only figures of any relevance are deaths and hospitalisations and the figures for those are still miniscule
In the West. Not in some parts of Asia
Full blown panic in Hongers:
HONG KONG — As the government in Hong Kong struggles to contain the city’s worst Covid outbreak ever, some residents have panicked. They have emptied supermarket shelves of vegetables and meat. They have raided drugstores for pain and fever medication. Those who could afford it have jumped on flights out of the city.
Tens of thousands of new Omicron cases are being reported each day, and deaths have surged. The anxiety gripping Hong Kong is not just about the explosion of infections, but also about what the government will do next. Mixed messages from officials have left residents wondering: Will there be a lockdown? Will we be sent into isolation facilities? Will our children be taken from us if they test positive"
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
The death rate is not calculated that way. If you're looking at today's death rate, the denominator is new cases about 2 weeks ago, not new cases today.
OK.
23rd February confirmed cases: 209,052
The real problem with HYUFD's calculation is that it is 100x out
A death rate still well below 0.005%.
I am not interested in case rate for Covid now just as I am not interested in case rate for flu.
The only figures of any relevance are deaths and hospitalisations and the figures for those are still miniscule
Do you really think 583 is less than 0.005% of 209,052? Explains a lot, I suppose.
Yes, it is 0.0027%.
Boris and this Tory government have correctly removed all restrictions and we are not going back. Indeed by 73% to 22% Tory voters believe we must learn to live with Covid compared to just 22% who think we need to test more, wear masks more and vaccinate more
I don't know whether anyone's written this — they must have done — but there's nothing wrong with being dependent on other countries for your energy sources provided they're fully democratic ones. The problem is being dependent on non-democratic countries, like Russia, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, etc.
This is a bit starry-eyed imo.
It is only months since a Minister in the Government of France, Clement Beaune, was threatening to use restrictions of Electricity supplies to the UK / Jersey as a weapon in a political dispute.
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
The death rate is not calculated that way. If you're looking at today's death rate, the denominator is new cases about 2 weeks ago, not new cases today.
OK.
23rd February confirmed cases: 209,052
The real problem with HYUFD's calculation is that it is 100x out
A death rate still well below 0.005%.
I am not interested in case rate for Covid now just as I am not interested in case rate for flu.
The only figures of any relevance are deaths and hospitalisations and the figures for those are still miniscule
Do you really think 583 is less than 0.005% of 209,052? Explains a lot, I suppose.
Also hospitalisations in Germany are running at an average of 800 a day, which isn't really "miniscule"
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
The death rate is not calculated that way. If you're looking at today's death rate, the denominator is new cases about 2 weeks ago, not new cases today.
OK.
23rd February confirmed cases: 209,052
The real problem with HYUFD's calculation is that it is 100x out
A death rate still well below 0.005%.
I am not interested in case rate for Covid now just as I am not interested in case rate for flu.
The only figures of any relevance are deaths and hospitalisations and the figures for those are still miniscule
Do you really think 583 is less than 0.005% of 209,052? Explains a lot, I suppose.
Yes, it is 0.0027%.
Boris has correctly removed all restrictions and we are not going back
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
The death rate is not calculated that way. If you're looking at today's death rate, the denominator is new cases about 2 weeks ago, not new cases today.
There is zero evidence of any rise in hospitalisations and deaths of any significance in any western nation post vaccination no matter the case rate from Covid.
We are not going back to lockdowns or further restrictions unless a variant proves completely vaccine immune, we just get on with our lives and if we get it treat it no different to time off with flu
As usual, you are not answering what I posted, but a completely different point to avoid admitting you were wrong.
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
The death rate is not calculated that way. If you're looking at today's death rate, the denominator is new cases about 2 weeks ago, not new cases today.
OK.
23rd February confirmed cases: 209,052
The real problem with HYUFD's calculation is that it is 100x out
A death rate still well below 0.005%.
I am not interested in case rate for Covid now just as I am not interested in case rate for flu.
The only figures of any relevance are deaths and hospitalisations and the figures for those are still miniscule
Do you really think 583 is less than 0.005% of 209,052? Explains a lot, I suppose.
Yes, it is 0.0027%.
Boris has correctly removed all restrictions and we are not going back
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
The death rate is not calculated that way. If you're looking at today's death rate, the denominator is new cases about 2 weeks ago, not new cases today.
OK.
23rd February confirmed cases: 209,052
The real problem with HYUFD's calculation is that it is 100x out
A death rate still well below 0.005%.
I am not interested in case rate for Covid now just as I am not interested in case rate for flu.
The only figures of any relevance are deaths and hospitalisations and the figures for those are still miniscule
Do you really think 583 is less than 0.005% of 209,052? Explains a lot, I suppose.
Yes, it is 0.0027%.
Boris has correctly removed all restrictions and we are not going back
Has "Boris" removed all restrictions in Germany? News to me. Also, I thought it was 0.27%, but as ever, I bow to your greater expertise about Germany.
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
The death rate is not calculated that way. If you're looking at today's death rate, the denominator is new cases about 2 weeks ago, not new cases today.
There is zero evidence of any rise in hospitalisations and deaths of any significance in any western nation post vaccination no matter the case rate from Covid.
We are not going back to lockdowns or further restrictions unless a variant proves completely vaccine immune, we just get on with our lives and if we get it treat it no different to time off with flu
As usual, you are not answering what I posted, but a completely different point to avoid admitting you were wrong.
No I was posting that there is zero evidence of any significant rise in death rates regardless of case rate, so I could not care less what the case rate is now, next month or next year unless a variant proves vaccine immune
We really need more analysis of the short term hit to the Russian economy. The sanctions seem impressive but what will this mean to everyday Russians now?
This long but excellent thread is helpful. Explains how Russia works as a mafia state, menacing others, and lying to itself
‘Let's discuss Russian economy. Many underestimate its dependency upon technological import. Russia's so deeply integrated into Western technological chains that severing these ties will lead to its collapse. Sanctions are already effective and can be made even more efficient🧵’
Much to chew on, but the economic takeaway is that Russia is fucked. What little machinery and tech it does produce is reliant on western (and Chinese) components. It will become seriously poor rather quickly. They might not even be able to maintain oil and gas production
Also makes the point that, as a mafia state reliant on the threat of violence, the Ukraine war was a rational act. It had worked before. But Putin underestimated the western reaction, Ukrainian resistance - and believed the lies told him, about the state of his own army
I've avidly read his output since seeing a reference in a post here. Fascinating and very convincing analysis.
Yes, excellent analysis. For anyone who is intrigued by this approach to understanding organizational and governance structures, and their relationship to how we conceive of ourselves and the world, I highly recommend Frederic Laloux's most excellent book, Reinventing Organizations
I've always wondered why the Mexican cartels got into avocados. I mean, avocados?!They aren't illegal and they aren't expensive. Avocados??? That thread explains why
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
The death rate is not calculated that way. If you're looking at today's death rate, the denominator is new cases about 2 weeks ago, not new cases today.
OK.
23rd February confirmed cases: 209,052
The real problem with HYUFD's calculation is that it is 100x out
A death rate still well below 0.005%.
I am not interested in case rate for Covid now just as I am not interested in case rate for flu.
The only figures of any relevance are deaths and hospitalisations and the figures for those are still miniscule
Do you really think 583 is less than 0.005% of 209,052? Explains a lot, I suppose.
Yes, it is 0.0027%.
Boris and this Tory government have correctly removed all restrictions and we are not going back. Indeed by 73% to 22% Tory voters believe we must learn to live with Covid compared to just 22% who think we need to test more, wear masks more and vaccinate more
It is actually 0.0027, or 0.27%. You forgot to multiply by 100 to get to %. Now, of course, you will post an entirely different point to avoid this inconvenient fact.
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
The death rate is not calculated that way. If you're looking at today's death rate, the denominator is new cases about 2 weeks ago, not new cases today.
OK.
23rd February confirmed cases: 209,052
The real problem with HYUFD's calculation is that it is 100x out
A death rate still well below 0.005%.
I am not interested in case rate for Covid now just as I am not interested in case rate for flu.
The only figures of any relevance are deaths and hospitalisations and the figures for those are still miniscule
Do you really think 583 is less than 0.005% of 209,052? Explains a lot, I suppose.
Yes, it is 0.0027%.
Boris and this Tory government have correctly removed all restrictions and we are not going back. Indeed by 73% to 22% Tory voters believe we must learn to live with Covid compared to just 22% who think we need to test more, wear masks more and vaccinate more
It is actually 0.0027, or 0.27%. You forgot to multiply by 100 to get to %. Now, of course, you will post an entirely different point to avoid this inconvenient fact.
Regardless it is miniscule, I could not care less what the case rate is given the death rate is so tiny
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
The death rate is not calculated that way. If you're looking at today's death rate, the denominator is new cases about 2 weeks ago, not new cases today.
OK.
23rd February confirmed cases: 209,052
The real problem with HYUFD's calculation is that it is 100x out
A death rate still well below 0.005%.
I am not interested in case rate for Covid now just as I am not interested in case rate for flu.
The only figures of any relevance are deaths and hospitalisations and the figures for those are still miniscule
Do you really think 583 is less than 0.005% of 209,052? Explains a lot, I suppose.
Also hospitalisations in Germany are running at an average of 800 a day, which isn't really "miniscule"
800 per day seems pretty miniscule to me. How many people get hospitalised on a daily basis even pre-Covid?
There will always be some sick people, always have been, always will be. That's what hospitals are there for. 800 people a day being sick to the point of hospitalisation in a country the size of Germany doesn't seem like anything to be that worried about to me, on a macro level there's bigger fish to fry.
We really need more analysis of the short term hit to the Russian economy. The sanctions seem impressive but what will this mean to everyday Russians now?
This long but excellent thread is helpful. Explains how Russia works as a mafia state, menacing others, and lying to itself
‘Let's discuss Russian economy. Many underestimate its dependency upon technological import. Russia's so deeply integrated into Western technological chains that severing these ties will lead to its collapse. Sanctions are already effective and can be made even more efficient🧵’
Much to chew on, but the economic takeaway is that Russia is fucked. What little machinery and tech it does produce is reliant on western (and Chinese) components. It will become seriously poor rather quickly. They might not even be able to maintain oil and gas production
Also makes the point that, as a mafia state reliant on the threat of violence, the Ukraine war was a rational act. It had worked before. But Putin underestimated the western reaction, Ukrainian resistance - and believed the lies told him, about the state of his own army
I've avidly read his output since seeing a reference in a post here. Fascinating and very convincing analysis.
Yes, excellent analysis. For anyone who is intrigued by this approach to understanding organizational and governance structures, and their relationship to how we conceive of ourselves and the world, I highly recommend Frederic Laloux's most excellent book, Reinventing Organizations
I've always wondered why the Mexican cartels got into avocados. I mean, avocados?!They aren't illegal and they aren't expensive. Avocados??? That thread explains why
Yes, fixed location of the means of production and, relatively speaking, a high-value cash crop. The bottom line isn't the mark-up, but the absolute value which of course takes into account volume and reliability of cash flow (not being illegal).
They obviously don't require basic maths skills at Warwick University.....
I have not studied Maths since GCSE though it really makes no difference to the point given the death rate now is well under half what it was in 2020 post vaccination.
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
The death rate is not calculated that way. If you're looking at today's death rate, the denominator is new cases about 2 weeks ago, not new cases today.
OK.
23rd February confirmed cases: 209,052
The real problem with HYUFD's calculation is that it is 100x out
A death rate still well below 0.005%.
I am not interested in case rate for Covid now just as I am not interested in case rate for flu.
The only figures of any relevance are deaths and hospitalisations and the figures for those are still miniscule
Do you really think 583 is less than 0.005% of 209,052? Explains a lot, I suppose.
Yes, it is 0.0027%.
Boris has correctly removed all restrictions and we are not going back
I think your maths is a little screwy.
583 is 0.27% of 209,000
That's the fatality ratio being reported elsewhere, I believe. 0.3%
Three times worse than flu?
Enough to be problematic, given how obscenely infectious the BA2 Omicron variant seems to be
At the moment maybe 1 in 12 South Koreans have Covid
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
The death rate is not calculated that way. If you're looking at today's death rate, the denominator is new cases about 2 weeks ago, not new cases today.
OK.
23rd February confirmed cases: 209,052
The real problem with HYUFD's calculation is that it is 100x out
A death rate still well below 0.005%.
I am not interested in case rate for Covid now just as I am not interested in case rate for flu.
The only figures of any relevance are deaths and hospitalisations and the figures for those are still miniscule
Do you really think 583 is less than 0.005% of 209,052? Explains a lot, I suppose.
Yes, it is 0.0027%.
Boris has correctly removed all restrictions and we are not going back
Has "Boris" removed all restrictions in Germany? News to me. Also, I thought it was 0.27%, but as ever, I bow to your greater expertise about Germany.
I could not care less what Germany does, it has a Social Democrat led government, we have a Conservative majority government and it will decide nobody else and it and its Conservative voters want no further restrictions.
We really need more analysis of the short term hit to the Russian economy. The sanctions seem impressive but what will this mean to everyday Russians now?
This long but excellent thread is helpful. Explains how Russia works as a mafia state, menacing others, and lying to itself
‘Let's discuss Russian economy. Many underestimate its dependency upon technological import. Russia's so deeply integrated into Western technological chains that severing these ties will lead to its collapse. Sanctions are already effective and can be made even more efficient🧵’
Much to chew on, but the economic takeaway is that Russia is fucked. What little machinery and tech it does produce is reliant on western (and Chinese) components. It will become seriously poor rather quickly. They might not even be able to maintain oil and gas production
Also makes the point that, as a mafia state reliant on the threat of violence, the Ukraine war was a rational act. It had worked before. But Putin underestimated the western reaction, Ukrainian resistance - and believed the lies told him, about the state of his own army
I've avidly read his output since seeing a reference in a post here. Fascinating and very convincing analysis.
Yes, excellent analysis. For anyone who is intrigued by this approach to understanding organizational and governance structures, and their relationship to how we conceive of ourselves and the world, I highly recommend Frederic Laloux's most excellent book, Reinventing Organizations
I've always wondered why the Mexican cartels got into avocados. I mean, avocados?!They aren't illegal and they aren't expensive. Avocados??? That thread explains why
PS. This, perhaps, suggests a way out of the conundrum posed by Cyclefree in the header. Once we have an immediate solution to the Russia issue sufficient to bring them back into the fold, lets get them fully updated and integrated into the knowledge economy. That is the least susceptible to mafiosi, as the value-generators cannot be killed, or imprisoned (at least not if you want to keep their productivity up) and they can run away to another jurisdiction.
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
The death rate is not calculated that way. If you're looking at today's death rate, the denominator is new cases about 2 weeks ago, not new cases today.
OK.
23rd February confirmed cases: 209,052
The real problem with HYUFD's calculation is that it is 100x out
A death rate still well below 0.005%.
I am not interested in case rate for Covid now just as I am not interested in case rate for flu.
The only figures of any relevance are deaths and hospitalisations and the figures for those are still miniscule
Do you really think 583 is less than 0.005% of 209,052? Explains a lot, I suppose.
Also hospitalisations in Germany are running at an average of 800 a day, which isn't really "miniscule"
800 per day seems pretty miniscule to me. How many people get hospitalised on a daily basis even pre-Covid?
There will always be some sick people, always have been, always will be. That's what hospitals are there for. 800 people a day being sick to the point of hospitalisation in a country the size of Germany doesn't seem like anything to be that worried about to me, on a macro level there's bigger fish to fry.
That's really stretching the meaning of the word "miniscule" beyond recognition. As it is hospitals in Germany are struggling, though they won't collapse, and that is why restrictions will only be removed fairly slowly over the next weeks.
I don't know whether anyone's written this — they must have done — but there's nothing wrong with being dependent on other countries for your energy sources provided they're fully democratic ones. The problem is being dependent on non-democratic countries, like Russia, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, etc.
This is a bit starry-eyed imo.
It is only months since a Minister in the Government of France, Clement Beaune, was threatening to use restrictions of Electricity supplies to the UK / Jersey as a weapon in a political dispute.
This is despite a defined dispute resolution mechanism existing in the FTA.
The Minister was not sacked, and is apparently in good standing.
Fortunately we are (rather too slowly imo) pivoting away from any dependence on French electricity, which will gradually defang such threats.
A similar point could be made about the EU-Switzerland relationship.
The countries of the West need to get together and start to sign up to binding legal assurances on a range of issues of mutual dependency. Now we've seen who the real enemies are we need to get closer and more integrated, not less. It would be a disaster if the Western world started atomising.
(The one exception to this possibly being the US-European relationship given the risks of another Trump presidency, where some EU self-sufficiency might be sensible).
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
The death rate is not calculated that way. If you're looking at today's death rate, the denominator is new cases about 2 weeks ago, not new cases today.
OK.
23rd February confirmed cases: 209,052
The real problem with HYUFD's calculation is that it is 100x out
A death rate still well below 0.005%.
I am not interested in case rate for Covid now just as I am not interested in case rate for flu.
The only figures of any relevance are deaths and hospitalisations and the figures for those are still miniscule
Do you really think 583 is less than 0.005% of 209,052? Explains a lot, I suppose.
Yes, it is 0.0027%.
Boris has correctly removed all restrictions and we are not going back
I think your maths is a little screwy.
583 is 0.27% of 209,000
That's the fatality ratio being reported elsewhere, I believe. 0.3%
Three times worse than flu?
Enough to be problematic, given how obscenely infectious the BA2 Omicron variant seems to be
At the moment maybe 1 in 12 South Koreans have Covid
Why's it problematic? We lived with flu before this, we can live with a 0.3% fatality rate after this.
Though in reality the fatality rate is likely to be even lower since that only counts the reported positive tests as opposed to actual infections (the asymptomatic are less likely to be tested and reported than those sick enough to go to hospital and die). Plus the 0.3% probably disproportionately includes antivaxxers who've made their bed and can die in it.
Factor in vaccines and the asymptomatic and post-vaccine Covid is probably comparable to the flu, which we've always lived with.
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
The death rate is not calculated that way. If you're looking at today's death rate, the denominator is new cases about 2 weeks ago, not new cases today.
There is zero evidence of any rise in hospitalisations and deaths of any significance in any western nation post vaccination no matter the case rate from Covid.
We are not going back to lockdowns or further restrictions unless a variant proves completely vaccine immune, we just get on with our lives and if we get it treat it no different to time off with flu
As usual, you are not answering what I posted, but a completely different point to avoid admitting you were wrong.
No I was posting that there is zero evidence of any significant rise in death rates regardless of case rate, so I could not care less what the case rate is now, next month or next year unless a variant proves vaccine immune
"Cardiff Philharmonic removes Tchaikovsky from programme in light of Russian invasion of Ukraine The orchestra had an all-Tchaikovsky concert scheduled for next week, but has decided to change the programme having deemed it to be 'inappropriate' at this time"
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
The death rate is not calculated that way. If you're looking at today's death rate, the denominator is new cases about 2 weeks ago, not new cases today.
OK.
23rd February confirmed cases: 209,052
The real problem with HYUFD's calculation is that it is 100x out
A death rate still well below 0.005%.
I am not interested in case rate for Covid now just as I am not interested in case rate for flu.
The only figures of any relevance are deaths and hospitalisations and the figures for those are still miniscule
Do you really think 583 is less than 0.005% of 209,052? Explains a lot, I suppose.
Also hospitalisations in Germany are running at an average of 800 a day, which isn't really "miniscule"
800 per day seems pretty miniscule to me. How many people get hospitalised on a daily basis even pre-Covid?
There will always be some sick people, always have been, always will be. That's what hospitals are there for. 800 people a day being sick to the point of hospitalisation in a country the size of Germany doesn't seem like anything to be that worried about to me, on a macro level there's bigger fish to fry.
That's really stretching the meaning of the word "miniscule" beyond recognition. As it is hospitals in Germany are struggling, though they won't collapse, and that is why restrictions will only be removed fairly slowly over the next weeks.
Germany has a left led government, we have a right led government, what Germany does is irrelevant.
This Tory government is in power until at least 2024 with a majority and it will not restore any restrictions as its core voters want.
Only a vaccine immune variant would change the situation
Covid's comeback is almost a welcome change from WW3 discourse to be honest.
What the last couple of months have shown extremely clearly is that there was only ever one truly gamechanging way of mitigating this pandemic, and that's vaccination (3 shots, including an MRNA booster). Everything else is a timing difference at best.
We really need more analysis of the short term hit to the Russian economy. The sanctions seem impressive but what will this mean to everyday Russians now?
This long but excellent thread is helpful. Explains how Russia works as a mafia state, menacing others, and lying to itself
‘Let's discuss Russian economy. Many underestimate its dependency upon technological import. Russia's so deeply integrated into Western technological chains that severing these ties will lead to its collapse. Sanctions are already effective and can be made even more efficient🧵’
Much to chew on, but the economic takeaway is that Russia is fucked. What little machinery and tech it does produce is reliant on western (and Chinese) components. It will become seriously poor rather quickly. They might not even be able to maintain oil and gas production
Also makes the point that, as a mafia state reliant on the threat of violence, the Ukraine war was a rational act. It had worked before. But Putin underestimated the western reaction, Ukrainian resistance - and believed the lies told him, about the state of his own army
I've avidly read his output since seeing a reference in a post here. Fascinating and very convincing analysis.
Yes, excellent analysis. For anyone who is intrigued by this approach to understanding organizational and governance structures, and their relationship to how we conceive of ourselves and the world, I highly recommend Frederic Laloux's most excellent book, Reinventing Organizations
I've always wondered why the Mexican cartels got into avocados. I mean, avocados?!They aren't illegal and they aren't expensive. Avocados??? That thread explains why
Yes, fixed location of the means of production and, relatively speaking, a high-value cash crop. The bottom line isn't the mark-up, but the absolute value which of course takes into account volume and reliability of cash flow (not being illegal).
What is absolutely perfect is that I have read the entirely independent theory that the Sicilian mafia were a perfect fit for the heroin trade because they started out controlling the growth and export of citrus fruit in Sicily
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
The death rate is not calculated that way. If you're looking at today's death rate, the denominator is new cases about 2 weeks ago, not new cases today.
OK.
23rd February confirmed cases: 209,052
The real problem with HYUFD's calculation is that it is 100x out
A death rate still well below 0.005%.
I am not interested in case rate for Covid now just as I am not interested in case rate for flu.
The only figures of any relevance are deaths and hospitalisations and the figures for those are still miniscule
Do you really think 583 is less than 0.005% of 209,052? Explains a lot, I suppose.
Also hospitalisations in Germany are running at an average of 800 a day, which isn't really "miniscule"
800 per day seems pretty miniscule to me. How many people get hospitalised on a daily basis even pre-Covid?
There will always be some sick people, always have been, always will be. That's what hospitals are there for. 800 people a day being sick to the point of hospitalisation in a country the size of Germany doesn't seem like anything to be that worried about to me, on a macro level there's bigger fish to fry.
That's really stretching the meaning of the word "miniscule" beyond recognition. As it is hospitals in Germany are struggling, though they won't collapse, and that is why restrictions will only be removed fairly slowly over the next weeks.
800 / 83 million is fewer than 0.0001% of the population on a daily basis (not 0.00001% for the benefit of HYUFD) so how is that stretching the word miniscule beyond recognition?
I think fewer than 0.0001% is pretty damned miniscule.
"Cardiff Philharmonic removes Tchaikovsky from programme in light of Russian invasion of Ukraine The orchestra had an all-Tchaikovsky concert scheduled for next week, but has decided to change the programme having deemed it to be 'inappropriate' at this time"
"Cardiff Philharmonic removes Tchaikovsky from programme in light of Russian invasion of Ukraine The orchestra had an all-Tchaikovsky concert scheduled for next week, but has decided to change the programme having deemed it to be 'inappropriate' at this time"
Covid's comeback is almost a welcome change from WW3 discourse to be honest.
What the last couple of months have shown extremely clearly is that there was only ever one truly gamechanging way of mitigating this pandemic, and that's vaccination (3 shots, including an MRNA booster). Everything else is a timing difference at best.
I don't think we should also overlook the highly effective antivirals coming online and also now 2-3 very cheap drugs to treat people in hospital that seem to also have a decent effect on reducing severity / death.
Hospitalisation used to be basically give them oxgyen and hope they don't get worse. Now there are some treatment options.
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
So a death rate of just 0.003% to cases, nothing of any real concern there certainly compared to Ukraine
I dunno. Of course it is nothing compared to potential nuclear war, but Covid has not entirely disappeared, and the global case rate is now ticking up after a period of decline. We may be entering another wave, they are definitely entering another wave in east Asia. Vietnam is also reporting record case numbers: 160,000 yesterday
The big question, as ever, is will it crush health systems. Korea and Vietnam seem to be doing OK.
Hong Kong is definitely not
"Body bags, overflowing morgues and chaotic hospitals: Hong Kong’s pandemic goes critical"
The crucial issue is whether China can keep Omicron out, and, if it can't, will it be South Korea (a nasty wave but not the apocalypse) or will it be Hong Kong (a horror show)
You are in cheery mood today!
Just solidly reporting the facts, like any good flint knapper
I wish Covid had entirely disappeared, and all we had to worry about was nuclear armageddon. Unfortunately it has not disappeared. The First Horseman is dawdling, his steed is chewing tussocks of grass, and refusing to move on
Do you need to wear a mask in a shop after armageddon?
No, you will have absorbed so much radiation anyway that wearing a mask will be futile.
Comments
Still an issue in some parts of the world. eg South Korea, once the poster boy of Covid control. They have just announced an extraordinary 342,000 new cases in one day, their highest ever, and one of the absolute biggest daily caseloads reported anywhere - eg India peaked about 400,000 a day, Brazil at about 250,000, and they are both vastly bigger than S Korea
it must be Omicron (BA2?) combined with a lack of prior immunity
And it is not some innocent explosion of mild colds, death rates are also shooting up dramatically (158 today, whereas S Korea is used to single digit death rates per day)
Combined with the 5th wave Covid calamity we are seeing in Hong Kong, this is deeply ominous for China.
They have zero prior immunity. As they keep telling us, proudly. If Omicron BA2 gets in to China, then it could be hellish for them; and it must be likely that it will do so, if it can easily cause such havoc in quarantined Hong Kong
Just to add to the joys of the world
@OzKaterji
Happening now in Maidan Square, a concert by the Kyiv Classic Symphony Orchestra
https://twitter.com/OzKaterji/status/1501522456141520900
Putin has prevented a nuclear war, because Ukraine has the bomb almost ready to launch.
Do they believe this, I wonder?
Regardless, the psychology is fascinating.
As is the belief anyone will buy this.
The problem with fake news is it becomes less effective.over time. Because people simply shrug and say fake news. Haven't the Russians factored that in?
Apparently not.
As much as you claim to want to see that bitterness and violence it's not necessary. Disruption? Yes. I dont think as much would be done without the passionate obsession of campaigners, they've really advanced the conversation. But acting like any shade of grey at all, just one even, is akin to not being able to contemplate change at all? No.
Its not clever and it's not moral either, it's just dishonest.
His funfair is next Monkey.
Radio 4...
As I understand it, the Conservative Party has almost given up on individual activity. Everything is now automated and impersonal. That is why they do not really know what is going on. They operate with the same level of efficiency as the baking system. Everything is fine, just as long as everything goes right. But when a problem arises, they are very slow to spot it and correct it.
As in the case of the present prime minister and his cabinet.
Yesterday: 193,000 cases, and 583 deaths
Is it possible that Covid is coming round for one final lap, particularly picking on those countries which have done well so far? Like some cruel soldier bayoneting the wounded, and stealing their gold watches, after the battle
Everyone is going to get this.....
There were also the local factors relating to Owen Patterson in North Shropshire and the national Tory lead had already fallen post partygate which it had not in the Chesham by election
They claim our Western democracy is a threat to Russian values and way of life.
Yet they treat the people as though our attitudes are precisely the same as their own.
Maybe they really just do think everyone would just love to be like Russia if only given the chance?
Ironically, much the same attitude as neo-Cons in America.
But I see what you were trying to do.
But as we know Covid does not approve of gold watches. Covid punishes hubris
I'm thinking of making a Wordle derivative in which you have six goes to work out which derivative you are playing
My own (unscientific) perspective is: The day after my mum died (non-covid), I spent the whole day my brother who was coughing, sneezing and feeling awful the whole time. I fully expected to catch his 'bad cold' but thankfully nothing - not a sniff(!)
Although he tested negative on LFTs, his GP suspected covid and we both think that's right, and that my 3 vaccinations protected me from catching it.
As I said, totally unscientific.
Well into the 100ks of μUVDL
The big question, as ever, is will it crush health systems. Korea and Vietnam seem to be doing OK.
Hong Kong is definitely not
"Body bags, overflowing morgues and chaotic hospitals: Hong Kong’s pandemic goes critical"
https://twitter.com/Gab_H_R/status/1501555739441176576?s=20&t=aJrtPKaRyTo3RKdzG7RL4A
The crucial issue is whether China can keep Omicron out, and, if it can't, will it be South Korea (a nasty wave but not the apocalypse) or will it be Hong Kong (a horror show)
- I did an LFT before attending
- I tested positive on the LFT
- I didn't attend.
Whether China's vaccines work is a separate matter, for them the Hong Kong figures are not great but would be ironic if Covid was now largely non deadly outside China even if still deadly in China where it began
I wish Covid had entirely disappeared, and all we had to worry about was nuclear armageddon. Unfortunately it has not disappeared. The First Horseman is dawdling, his steed is chewing tussocks of grass, and refusing to move on
The various headwinds against the world economy right now are decidedly non-optimal
We are not going back to lockdowns or further restrictions unless a variant proves completely vaccine immune, we just get on with our lives and if we get it treat it no different to time off with flu
It would convince me that we really are living in a simulation, and the simulators have great screenwriters
23rd February confirmed cases: 209,052
The real problem with HYUFD's calculation is that it is 100x out
I am not interested in case rate for Covid now just as I am not interested in case rate for flu.
The only figures of any relevance are deaths and hospitalisations and the figures for those are still miniscule
Full blown panic in Hongers:
HONG KONG — As the government in Hong Kong struggles to contain the city’s worst Covid outbreak ever, some residents have panicked. They have emptied supermarket shelves of vegetables and meat. They have raided drugstores for pain and fever medication. Those who could afford it have jumped on flights out of the city.
Tens of thousands of new Omicron cases are being reported each day, and deaths have surged. The anxiety gripping Hong Kong is not just about the explosion of infections, but also about what the government will do next. Mixed messages from officials have left residents wondering: Will there be a lockdown? Will we be sent into isolation facilities? Will our children be taken from us if they test positive"
https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1501528278305284100?s=20&t=fKPWhEZdS0wkGZZBfT3uMw
Boris and this Tory government have correctly removed all restrictions and we are not going back. Indeed by 73% to 22% Tory voters believe we must learn to live with Covid compared to just 22% who think we need to test more, wear masks more and vaccinate more
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/03/04/do-we-need-learn-live-covid-19-most-britons-say-ye
It is only months since a Minister in the Government of France, Clement Beaune, was threatening to use restrictions of Electricity supplies to the UK / Jersey as a weapon in a political dispute.
Here's a Guardian report from September 21:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/05/france-uk-jersey-eu-energy-supply-fishing-row-channel
This is despite a defined dispute resolution mechanism existing in the FTA.
The Minister was not sacked, and is apparently in good standing.
Fortunately we are (rather too slowly imo) pivoting away from any dependence on French electricity, which will gradually defang such threats.
A similar point could be made about the EU-Switzerland relationship.
583 is 0.27% of 209,000
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt11064620/
Labour hasn't been in power for 12 years.
There will always be some sick people, always have been, always will be. That's what hospitals are there for. 800 people a day being sick to the point of hospitalisation in a country the size of Germany doesn't seem like anything to be that worried about to me, on a macro level there's bigger fish to fry.
Though they were in office for much longer before that, of course.
Three times worse than flu?
Enough to be problematic, given how obscenely infectious the BA2 Omicron variant seems to be
At the moment maybe 1 in 12 South Koreans have Covid
PS. This, perhaps, suggests a way out of the conundrum posed by Cyclefree in the header. Once we have an immediate solution to the Russia issue sufficient to bring them back into the fold, lets get them fully updated and integrated into the knowledge economy. That is the least susceptible to mafiosi, as the value-generators cannot be killed, or imprisoned (at least not if you want to keep their productivity up) and they can run away to another jurisdiction.
As it is hospitals in Germany are struggling, though they won't collapse, and that is why restrictions will only be removed fairly slowly over the next weeks.
(The one exception to this possibly being the US-European relationship given the risks of another Trump presidency, where some EU self-sufficiency might be sensible).
Though in reality the fatality rate is likely to be even lower since that only counts the reported positive tests as opposed to actual infections (the asymptomatic are less likely to be tested and reported than those sick enough to go to hospital and die). Plus the 0.3% probably disproportionately includes antivaxxers who've made their bed and can die in it.
Factor in vaccines and the asymptomatic and post-vaccine Covid is probably comparable to the flu, which we've always lived with.
https://www.classical-music.com/news/cardiff-philharmonic-removes-tchaikovsky-from-programme-in-light-of-russian-invasion-of-ukraine/
"Cardiff Philharmonic removes Tchaikovsky from programme in light of Russian invasion of Ukraine
The orchestra had an all-Tchaikovsky concert scheduled for next week, but has decided to change the programme having deemed it to be 'inappropriate' at this time"
This Tory government is in power until at least 2024 with a majority and it will not restore any restrictions as its core voters want.
Only a vaccine immune variant would change the situation
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1501519621492510720?t=2lDNuBP0XoxPDPmbxi_g3Q&s=19
What the last couple of months have shown extremely clearly is that there was only ever one truly gamechanging way of mitigating this pandemic, and that's vaccination (3 shots, including an MRNA booster). Everything else is a timing difference at best.
I think fewer than 0.0001% is pretty damned miniscule.
Fucking stupid decision.
Hospitalisation used to be basically give them oxgyen and hope they don't get worse. Now there are some treatment options.