BREAKING: RT America is ceasing productions and laying off its staff, according to a memo I have obtained from the production company behind the Russia-backed network.
Still, not to worry, the Third Horseman approaches. Famine
⚡️Economist says Russian invasion could lead to largest wheat shortage in history.
The invasion will cause a massive supply shock and nothing can be done in the short term to prevent it, according to @ScottIrwinUI, as quoted by Bloomberg.’
Ok let's assume the sanctions stay for a period...
In a few weeks Putin says "These sanctions are aimed at destroying Russia, therefore unless they're stopped we will launch a nuclear attack."
How does that play out, I wonder?
Even if the sanctions were dropped is anyone going to trade with Russia for the foreseeable future?
Every time I try to see a way out of this mess, I cannot see a safe one.
With these horrendous economic prognoses, there MUST be people close to Putin, close to power, who realise the Ukraine war is an error of galactic magnitude. They are not stupid. They won’t just be watching Russia Today
Will they move? Do you just stand by as an autocrat destroys your own country? They too will have kids and hopes and dreams for a better Russia, not this squalid disaster
Assassins who fail to kill their target don't usually do so well.
And Putin will have his own, extremely loyal, bodyguard.
Probably more than one.
And nobody can get close to him. See the long table pictures? Big guy in doorway to left? Always a TV crew, is there a bodygaurd there? He isolates for his survival
Shoutout for the Polish ambassador - the only one to stick around.
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1499474258283614213 Polish Ambassador Bartosz Cichocki sat in a 2nd-floor room lined with large windows, wearing a soccer jersey and sipping a glass scotch, full of bravado, and shrugging off the missile explosions that reverberated through the Ukrainian capital.
Ok let's assume the sanctions stay for a period...
In a few weeks Putin says "These sanctions are aimed at destroying Russia, therefore unless they're stopped we will launch a nuclear attack."
How does that play out, I wonder?
Even if the sanctions were dropped is anyone going to trade with Russia for the foreseeable future?
Every time I try to see a way out of this mess, I cannot see a safe one.
With these horrendous economic prognoses, there MUST be people close to Putin, close to power, who realise the Ukraine war is an error of galactic magnitude. They are not stupid. They won’t just be watching Russia Today
Will they move? Do you just stand by as an autocrat destroys your own country? They too will have kids and hopes and dreams for a better Russia, not this squalid disaster
Assassins who fail to kill their target don't usually do so well.
And Putin will have his own, extremely loyal, bodyguard.
I was thinking more of a palace coup. Top technocrats, generals, spies, oligarchs. They can see the catastrophe unfolding for Russia
But maybe I am giving in to hopecasting, and Putin has total control, and things will indeed get worse. As he promised Macron
I had a terrible thought earlier.
In Washington they must be at least game planning the ultimate: a first strike to take this madman out before he burns the world to hell.
I read somewhere that Putin is now in some deep bunker under the Urals, presumably for just this reason. Would explain his latest meetings by Zoom
It may be bollocks of course. Perhaps he confidently strides the Kremlin? But he can’t be that confident, he will know assassination is a real threat
Ok let's assume the sanctions stay for a period...
In a few weeks Putin says "These sanctions are aimed at destroying Russia, therefore unless they're stopped we will launch a nuclear attack."
How does that play out, I wonder?
Even if the sanctions were dropped is anyone going to trade with Russia for the foreseeable future?
Every time I try to see a way out of this mess, I cannot see a safe one.
With these horrendous economic prognoses, there MUST be people close to Putin, close to power, who realise the Ukraine war is an error of galactic magnitude. They are not stupid. They won’t just be watching Russia Today
Will they move? Do you just stand by as an autocrat destroys your own country? They too will have kids and hopes and dreams for a better Russia, not this squalid disaster
Assassins who fail to kill their target don't usually do so well.
And Putin will have his own, extremely loyal, bodyguard.
Probably more than one.
Picky and wrong
"a person or group of people employed to escort and protect an important or famous person."
Still, not to worry, the Third Horseman approaches. Famine
⚡️Economist says Russian invasion could lead to largest wheat shortage in history.
The invasion will cause a massive supply shock and nothing can be done in the short term to prevent it, according to @ScottIrwinUI, as quoted by Bloomberg.’
Labour has called on the Tories to return money from donors with links to Russiain response to tensions over Vladimir Putin’s military buildup on the Ukrainian border.
In a joint letter, David Lammy, the shadow foreign secretary, and Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, called on ministers to address Russian finance flowing into the UK.
Writing to their counterparts, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, both possible contenders to succeed Boris Johnson in No 10, Lammy and Reeves said: “Donors who have made money from Russia or have alleged links to the Putin regime have given £1.93m to either the Conservative party or individual Conservative associations since Boris Johnson took power in July 2019. Will the Conservative party agree to return it?”
Wow 1.93m in three years that's about 700k per year or about 2k per Conservative MP.
Can I ask Conservative members here if they're not embarrassed that their party can be bought for such trivial amounts of money ?
Are Conservative politicians so addicted to unearned money that they're willing to damage themselves so much for so little ?
Its the political funding equivalent of a beggar looking for fag ends in the gutter.
I am hearing from a contact that certain pharma, detergent and printer ink is now hard to get hold of.
But basic foodstuffs are still fine.
I'm baffled as to how anything could be running short already. Is there only a week's stock of these items in Russia?
From a couple of years ago all leaders know that you are always only 48 hours away from a loo-roll riot, followed by a coup, show trials and liquidations.
Well, in snowflake Britain obviously, but I thought grudging acceptance/expectation of shortages was in the Russian DNA.
Equally, Russia does have form for revolutions. 1905, 1917 (x2), and 1991.
They are willing to suffer a lot, but when desperate enough, brave enough.
Ok let's assume the sanctions stay for a period...
In a few weeks Putin says "These sanctions are aimed at destroying Russia, therefore unless they're stopped we will launch a nuclear attack."
How does that play out, I wonder?
Even if the sanctions were dropped is anyone going to trade with Russia for the foreseeable future?
Every time I try to see a way out of this mess, I cannot see a safe one.
With these horrendous economic prognoses, there MUST be people close to Putin, close to power, who realise the Ukraine war is an error of galactic magnitude. They are not stupid. They won’t just be watching Russia Today
Will they move? Do you just stand by as an autocrat destroys your own country? They too will have kids and hopes and dreams for a better Russia, not this squalid disaster
Assassins who fail to kill their target don't usually do so well.
And Putin will have his own, extremely loyal, bodyguard.
I was thinking more of a palace coup. Top technocrats, generals, spies, oligarchs. They can see the catastrophe unfolding for Russia
But maybe I am giving in to hopecasting, and Putin has total control, and things will indeed get worse. As he promised Macron
People around a dictator will constantly be asking themselves this question.
Is it safer to stick with him, or to remove him?
If they conclude the latter, Putin will be removed swiftly and efficiently, like Beria. Russians are very good at coups d'etat. These are usually almost bloodless, at the point of flagrante delicto, even if executions follow afterwards.
Ok let's assume the sanctions stay for a period...
In a few weeks Putin says "These sanctions are aimed at destroying Russia, therefore unless they're stopped we will launch a nuclear attack."
How does that play out, I wonder?
Even if the sanctions were dropped is anyone going to trade with Russia for the foreseeable future?
Every time I try to see a way out of this mess, I cannot see a safe one.
With these horrendous economic prognoses, there MUST be people close to Putin, close to power, who realise the Ukraine war is an error of galactic magnitude. They are not stupid. They won’t just be watching Russia Today
Will they move? Do you just stand by as an autocrat destroys your own country? They too will have kids and hopes and dreams for a better Russia, not this squalid disaster
Assassins who fail to kill their target don't usually do so well.
And Putin will have his own, extremely loyal, bodyguard.
I was thinking more of a palace coup. Top technocrats, generals, spies, oligarchs. They can see the catastrophe unfolding for Russia
But maybe I am giving in to hopecasting, and Putin has total control, and things will indeed get worse. As he promised Macron
I had a terrible thought earlier.
In Washington they must be at least game planning the ultimate: a first strike to take this madman out before he burns the world to hell.
Labour has called on the Tories to return money from donors with links to Russiain response to tensions over Vladimir Putin’s military buildup on the Ukrainian border.
In a joint letter, David Lammy, the shadow foreign secretary, and Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, called on ministers to address Russian finance flowing into the UK.
Writing to their counterparts, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, both possible contenders to succeed Boris Johnson in No 10, Lammy and Reeves said: “Donors who have made money from Russia or have alleged links to the Putin regime have given £1.93m to either the Conservative party or individual Conservative associations since Boris Johnson took power in July 2019. Will the Conservative party agree to return it?”
Wow 1.93m in three years that's about 700k per year or about 2k per Conservative MP.
Can I ask Conservative members here if they're not embarrassed that their party can be bought for such trivial amounts of money ?
Are Conservative politicians so addicted to unearned money that they're willing to damage themselves so much for so little ?
Its the political funding equivalent of a beggar looking for fag ends in the gutter.
Are they all bad eggs, or is having any links to Russia enough to get you on the naughty list these days?
Ok let's assume the sanctions stay for a period...
In a few weeks Putin says "These sanctions are aimed at destroying Russia, therefore unless they're stopped we will launch a nuclear attack."
How does that play out, I wonder?
Even if the sanctions were dropped is anyone going to trade with Russia for the foreseeable future?
Every time I try to see a way out of this mess, I cannot see a safe one.
With these horrendous economic prognoses, there MUST be people close to Putin, close to power, who realise the Ukraine war is an error of galactic magnitude. They are not stupid. They won’t just be watching Russia Today
Will they move? Do you just stand by as an autocrat destroys your own country? They too will have kids and hopes and dreams for a better Russia, not this squalid disaster
Assassins who fail to kill their target don't usually do so well.
And Putin will have his own, extremely loyal, bodyguard.
I was thinking more of a palace coup. Top technocrats, generals, spies, oligarchs. They can see the catastrophe unfolding for Russia
But maybe I am giving in to hopecasting, and Putin has total control, and things will indeed get worse. As he promised Macron
I had a terrible thought earlier.
In Washington they must be at least game planning the ultimate: a first strike to take this madman out before he burns the world to hell.
I read somewhere that Putin is now in some deep bunker under the Urals, presumably for just this reason. Would explain his latest meetings by Zoom
It may be bollocks of course. Perhaps he confidently strides the Kremlin? But he can’t be that confident, he will know assassination is a real threat
And it will be the ultra loyal bodyguard who lost his son and brothers in to Ukrainian weapons that will give Putin his "et tu, Brute" moment.
Shoutout for the Polish ambassador - the only one to stick around.
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1499474258283614213 Polish Ambassador Bartosz Cichocki sat in a 2nd-floor room lined with large windows, wearing a soccer jersey and sipping a glass scotch, full of bravado, and shrugging off the missile explosions that reverberated through the Ukrainian capital.
I do wonder how many Poles might be heading to the Ukraine in upcoming weeks.
Those 'Poland: First To Fight' T-shirts were pretty popular a few years back:
NEW: Based on "information available", the command of a unit of Belarusian paratroopers has received an order to cross the border into Ukraine, according to a Ukrainian update on Russia’s invasion. A combat order would be made after the crossing, it said, without giving dates 1/
The update also described the morale of the Belarusian soldiers from the 38th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade as “extremely low”, noting: “The officers and soldiers do not want to play the role of Russian mercenaries.” 2/
Ok let's assume the sanctions stay for a period...
In a few weeks Putin says "These sanctions are aimed at destroying Russia, therefore unless they're stopped we will launch a nuclear attack."
How does that play out, I wonder?
Even if the sanctions were dropped is anyone going to trade with Russia for the foreseeable future?
Every time I try to see a way out of this mess, I cannot see a safe one.
With these horrendous economic prognoses, there MUST be people close to Putin, close to power, who realise the Ukraine war is an error of galactic magnitude. They are not stupid. They won’t just be watching Russia Today
Will they move? Do you just stand by as an autocrat destroys your own country? They too will have kids and hopes and dreams for a better Russia, not this squalid disaster
Assassins who fail to kill their target don't usually do so well.
And Putin will have his own, extremely loyal, bodyguard.
I was thinking more of a palace coup. Top technocrats, generals, spies, oligarchs. They can see the catastrophe unfolding for Russia
But maybe I am giving in to hopecasting, and Putin has total control, and things will indeed get worse. As he promised Macron
I had a terrible thought earlier.
In Washington they must be at least game planning the ultimate: a first strike to take this madman out before he burns the world to hell.
I read somewhere that Putin is now in some deep bunker under the Urals, presumably for just this reason. Would explain his latest meetings by Zoom
It may be bollocks of course. Perhaps he confidently strides the Kremlin? But he can’t be that confident, he will know assassination is a real threat
And it will be the ultra loyal bodyguard who lost his son and brothers in to Ukrainian weapons that will give Putin his "et tu, Brute" moment.
Can't see Russia giving up Crimea even if Putin is deposed. As for the Erdington by-election, as poor a candidate as Paulette Hamilton is I'd be astonished if Labour didn't win reasonably comfortable tonight, let alone lose the seat.
It was re-taken by force. You're assuming the Russians will be in a position to negotiate. Not saying we could get it but don't think we should take the maximalist position off the table. To me Crimea is a much higher priority than for instance removing Russia's Permanent 5 status which I'd be prepared to negotiate away.
I am hearing from a contact that certain pharma, detergent and printer ink is now hard to get hold of.
But basic foodstuffs are still fine.
I'm baffled as to how anything could be running short already. Is there only a week's stock of these items in Russia?
From a couple of years ago all leaders know that you are always only 48 hours away from a loo-roll riot, followed by a coup, show trials and liquidations.
Well, in snowflake Britain obviously, but I thought grudging acceptance/expectation of shortages was in the Russian DNA.
Equally, Russia does have form for revolutions. 1905, 1917 (x2), and 1991.
They are willing to suffer a lot, but when desperate enough, brave enough.
Oh, and the overthrow of Khrushchev was a palace coup / revolution.
NEW: Based on "information available", the command of a unit of Belarusian paratroopers has received an order to cross the border into Ukraine, according to a Ukrainian update on Russia’s invasion. A combat order would be made after the crossing, it said, without giving dates 1/
The update also described the morale of the Belarusian soldiers from the 38th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade as “extremely low”, noting: “The officers and soldiers do not want to play the role of Russian mercenaries.” 2/
Still, not to worry, the Third Horseman approaches. Famine
⚡️Economist says Russian invasion could lead to largest wheat shortage in history.
The invasion will cause a massive supply shock and nothing can be done in the short term to prevent it, according to @ScottIrwinUI, as quoted by Bloomberg.’
Ok let's assume the sanctions stay for a period...
In a few weeks Putin says "These sanctions are aimed at destroying Russia, therefore unless they're stopped we will launch a nuclear attack."
How does that play out, I wonder?
Even if the sanctions were dropped is anyone going to trade with Russia for the foreseeable future?
Every time I try to see a way out of this mess, I cannot see a safe one.
With these horrendous economic prognoses, there MUST be people close to Putin, close to power, who realise the Ukraine war is an error of galactic magnitude. They are not stupid. They won’t just be watching Russia Today
Will they move? Do you just stand by as an autocrat destroys your own country? They too will have kids and hopes and dreams for a better Russia, not this squalid disaster
Assassins who fail to kill their target don't usually do so well.
And Putin will have his own, extremely loyal, bodyguard.
Probably more than one.
Picky and wrong
"a person or group of people employed to escort and protect an important or famous person."
I know, it was a joke. Quite a funny one I think - I liked the thought of him only having one extremely loyal bodyguard. Only takes boxing day off to see his Mum.
"EU unanimously agrees to grant temporary residence to refugees
The EU has agreed to grant temporary residence to Ukrainians fleeing the war, for up to three years.
EU ministers gave the plans the green light at a meeting in Brussels today.
The bloc's triggered a mechanism - that’s never been used before - to allow Ukrainian nationals and their families the right to work, education and welfare.
The EU says that those who held long-term residence or refugee status in Ukraine would also be covered - either by the directive or national rules. And that temporary workers or students, who aren't eligible, would be helped to get home."
Now let's see if 'world-leading Britain' copies that.
I am pleased to see such a humanitarian response.
Perhaps it will encourage a shift in opinion on refugees and asylum. It is a marked contrast to the sink 'em or deport them to Rwanda approach we take to duskier refugees.
Still, not to worry, the Third Horseman approaches. Famine
⚡️Economist says Russian invasion could lead to largest wheat shortage in history.
The invasion will cause a massive supply shock and nothing can be done in the short term to prevent it, according to @ScottIrwinUI, as quoted by Bloomberg.’
Ok let's assume the sanctions stay for a period...
In a few weeks Putin says "These sanctions are aimed at destroying Russia, therefore unless they're stopped we will launch a nuclear attack."
How does that play out, I wonder?
Even if the sanctions were dropped is anyone going to trade with Russia for the foreseeable future?
Every time I try to see a way out of this mess, I cannot see a safe one.
With these horrendous economic prognoses, there MUST be people close to Putin, close to power, who realise the Ukraine war is an error of galactic magnitude. They are not stupid. They won’t just be watching Russia Today
Will they move? Do you just stand by as an autocrat destroys your own country? They too will have kids and hopes and dreams for a better Russia, not this squalid disaster
Assassins who fail to kill their target don't usually do so well.
And Putin will have his own, extremely loyal, bodyguard.
Does he have his own poison tasters like the Czars of old?
Ok let's assume the sanctions stay for a period...
In a few weeks Putin says "These sanctions are aimed at destroying Russia, therefore unless they're stopped we will launch a nuclear attack."
How does that play out, I wonder?
Even if the sanctions were dropped is anyone going to trade with Russia for the foreseeable future?
Every time I try to see a way out of this mess, I cannot see a safe one.
With these horrendous economic prognoses, there MUST be people close to Putin, close to power, who realise the Ukraine war is an error of galactic magnitude. They are not stupid. They won’t just be watching Russia Today
Will they move? Do you just stand by as an autocrat destroys your own country? They too will have kids and hopes and dreams for a better Russia, not this squalid disaster
Assassins who fail to kill their target don't usually do so well.
And Putin will have his own, extremely loyal, bodyguard.
Does he have his own poison tasters like the Czars of old?
The extremely loyal bodyguard has to do that too - they're short-staffed.
"EU unanimously agrees to grant temporary residence to refugees
The EU has agreed to grant temporary residence to Ukrainians fleeing the war, for up to three years.
EU ministers gave the plans the green light at a meeting in Brussels today.
The bloc's triggered a mechanism - that’s never been used before - to allow Ukrainian nationals and their families the right to work, education and welfare.
The EU says that those who held long-term residence or refugee status in Ukraine would also be covered - either by the directive or national rules. And that temporary workers or students, who aren't eligible, would be helped to get home."
Now let's see if 'world-leading Britain' copies that.
I am pleased to see such a humanitarian response.
Perhaps it will encourage a shift in opinion on refugees and asylum. It is a marked contrast to the sink 'em or deport them to Rwanda approach we take to duskier refugees.
Each situation is unique.
Ukraine has been willing to fight whereas in Afghanistan opposition to the Taliban was somewhat lacking.
Labour has called on the Tories to return money from donors with links to Russiain response to tensions over Vladimir Putin’s military buildup on the Ukrainian border.
In a joint letter, David Lammy, the shadow foreign secretary, and Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, called on ministers to address Russian finance flowing into the UK.
Writing to their counterparts, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, both possible contenders to succeed Boris Johnson in No 10, Lammy and Reeves said: “Donors who have made money from Russia or have alleged links to the Putin regime have given £1.93m to either the Conservative party or individual Conservative associations since Boris Johnson took power in July 2019. Will the Conservative party agree to return it?”
Wow 1.93m in three years that's about 700k per year or about 2k per Conservative MP.
Can I ask Conservative members here if they're not embarrassed that their party can be bought for such trivial amounts of money ?
Are Conservative politicians so addicted to unearned money that they're willing to damage themselves so much for so little ?
Its the political funding equivalent of a beggar looking for fag ends in the gutter.
This is a really rich attack line for Labour. It ties in nicely with the sleaze lines which have been pushed quite successfully over the last 12 months or so. And now, we have a juicy dimension of the Tories wallowing in sleaze which puts them on the wrong side of the most polarising conflict of the last 50 years or so.
Ok let's assume the sanctions stay for a period...
In a few weeks Putin says "These sanctions are aimed at destroying Russia, therefore unless they're stopped we will launch a nuclear attack."
How does that play out, I wonder?
Even if the sanctions were dropped is anyone going to trade with Russia for the foreseeable future?
Every time I try to see a way out of this mess, I cannot see a safe one.
With these horrendous economic prognoses, there MUST be people close to Putin, close to power, who realise the Ukraine war is an error of galactic magnitude. They are not stupid. They won’t just be watching Russia Today
Will they move? Do you just stand by as an autocrat destroys your own country? They too will have kids and hopes and dreams for a better Russia, not this squalid disaster
Assassins who fail to kill their target don't usually do so well.
And Putin will have his own, extremely loyal, bodyguard.
Does he have his own poison tasters like the Czars of old?
The extremely loyal bodyguard has to do that too - they're short-staffed.
Why - have they lost a few people to, er... stomach upsets, recently?
"EU unanimously agrees to grant temporary residence to refugees
The EU has agreed to grant temporary residence to Ukrainians fleeing the war, for up to three years.
EU ministers gave the plans the green light at a meeting in Brussels today.
The bloc's triggered a mechanism - that’s never been used before - to allow Ukrainian nationals and their families the right to work, education and welfare.
The EU says that those who held long-term residence or refugee status in Ukraine would also be covered - either by the directive or national rules. And that temporary workers or students, who aren't eligible, would be helped to get home."
Now let's see if 'world-leading Britain' copies that.
I am pleased to see such a humanitarian response.
Perhaps it will encourage a shift in opinion on refugees and asylum. It is a marked contrast to the sink 'em or deport them to Rwanda approach we take to duskier refugees.
Alexander Somto Orah, 25, was among thousands of people crowding a Kyiv train station Friday, hoping to flee Ukraine amid the Russian invasion. He said he and his friends hoped to get to safety at the Polish border quickly but that officials wouldn’t allow the group of Africans to board trains out of the region.
“I was like, ‘You are picking only white people!’” Orah said. He said he and his friends briefly made it onto a second train headed to Poland but were quickly kicked off, with officials telling them “Ukrainians only.”
Mind you, those men will be lucky to get out of Ukraine. Zelensky wants them to stay and fight.
I am hearing from a contact that certain pharma, detergent and printer ink is now hard to get hold of.
But basic foodstuffs are still fine.
I'm baffled as to how anything could be running short already. Is there only a week's stock of these items in Russia?
From a couple of years ago all leaders know that you are always only 48 hours away from a loo-roll riot, followed by a coup, show trials and liquidations.
Well, in snowflake Britain obviously, but I thought grudging acceptance/expectation of shortages was in the Russian DNA.
Equally, Russia does have form for revolutions. 1905, 1917 (x2), and 1991.
They are willing to suffer a lot, but when desperate enough, brave enough.
Garry Kasparov interviewed on C4News reckoned there could be millions on the streets before too long.
Ok let's assume the sanctions stay for a period...
In a few weeks Putin says "These sanctions are aimed at destroying Russia, therefore unless they're stopped we will launch a nuclear attack."
How does that play out, I wonder?
Even if the sanctions were dropped is anyone going to trade with Russia for the foreseeable future?
Every time I try to see a way out of this mess, I cannot see a safe one.
With these horrendous economic prognoses, there MUST be people close to Putin, close to power, who realise the Ukraine war is an error of galactic magnitude. They are not stupid. They won’t just be watching Russia Today
Will they move? Do you just stand by as an autocrat destroys your own country? They too will have kids and hopes and dreams for a better Russia, not this squalid disaster
Assassins who fail to kill their target don't usually do so well.
Nor do ones who succeed, generally.
Genuinely successful assassins (rather than simply assassins who get their man) aren't normally remembered as assassins.
And this is on top of Covid. And all completely pointless
‘LONDON, March 3 (Reuters) - JPMorgan said on Thursday it expected Russia's economy to contract 35% in the second quarter and 7% in 2022 with the economy suffering an economic output decline comparable to the 1998 crisis.’
Many on the thread saying this is way too optimistic for Russia
I’m struggling to make sense of those numbers. It’s only just March. Down 35% in the quarter but only 7% for the year?
Yes. That basically assumes that Q1, Q3 and Q4 will all be perfectly normal quarters. (35% of 25% = 7-8%).
So it's a rubbish forecast.
Or potentially pricing in regime change and removal of sanctions. If it's as you say then it's completely idiotic, the -35% for Q2 sets a new lower baseline.
If the Russian economy does NOT bounce back Putin will - on these figures - have shrunk the Russian economy by a third, in order to gain the enmity of the entire world, ruin his country’s moral reputation, and make his vaunted army look pathetically laughable, in order to gain control of loads and loads of rubble, and rule over 40 million people who all want him dead, and might try to arrange that
It makes the 2nd Iraq war look like a brilliant piece of historic statecraft
Well yes.
There's no good outcome for Putin now:
Afghanistan II (but with massive financial sanctions) or Retreat (and Ukraine joins the EU and NATO) or Nuclear holocaust
I think that it'll be the first. Putin can't be the Czar if he lets go of part of his empire and runs away, and he can't be the Czar if both he and his empire end up being turned into a vast sheet of irradiated glass.
He's an absolute monarch who is quite happy to let his army and his civil population alike suffer terribly to achieve what he wants. Inflicting years of indiscriminate butchery on the Ukrainian population - until everyone who won't accept absorption by Russia is either dead or in exile - won't faze the man at all. Nor will turning Russia into a vast new North Korea. Life under the Kim dynasty is, after all, vastly worse even than life under Putin, yet they've been in power since the late 1940s.
Basically if he's as cruel and merciless as Stalin (compared with whose reign of terror the late-period Soviet Union looks positively herbivorous,) then he can do almost whatever he wants. So long as the man shows a sufficient regard for the survival of Russia and his own self-preservation not to attempt a direct military engagement with NATO then he can do what he likes to both Ukraine and Belarus - which, whilst he would also doubtless like to recapture the Baltic States, are much larger and more critical to his project.
Labour has called on the Tories to return money from donors with links to Russia in response to tensions over Vladimir Putin’s military buildup on the Ukrainian border.
I'm all for de-russifying the tory party, but surely we don't want to be giving tradable foreign currency *back* to Putin-linked Russians right now?
"EU unanimously agrees to grant temporary residence to refugees
The EU has agreed to grant temporary residence to Ukrainians fleeing the war, for up to three years.
EU ministers gave the plans the green light at a meeting in Brussels today.
The bloc's triggered a mechanism - that’s never been used before - to allow Ukrainian nationals and their families the right to work, education and welfare.
The EU says that those who held long-term residence or refugee status in Ukraine would also be covered - either by the directive or national rules. And that temporary workers or students, who aren't eligible, would be helped to get home."
Now let's see if 'world-leading Britain' copies that.
I am pleased to see such a humanitarian response.
Perhaps it will encourage a shift in opinion on refugees and asylum. It is a marked contrast to the sink 'em or deport them to Rwanda approach we take to duskier refugees.
Alexander Somto Orah, 25, was among thousands of people crowding a Kyiv train station Friday, hoping to flee Ukraine amid the Russian invasion. He said he and his friends hoped to get to safety at the Polish border quickly but that officials wouldn’t allow the group of Africans to board trains out of the region.
“I was like, ‘You are picking only white people!’” Orah said. He said he and his friends briefly made it onto a second train headed to Poland but were quickly kicked off, with officials telling them “Ukrainians only.”
Mind you, those men will be lucky to get out of Ukraine. Zelensky wants them to stay and fight.
Perhaps the train guards were on secondment from the Home Office?
I am hearing from a contact that certain pharma, detergent and printer ink is now hard to get hold of.
But basic foodstuffs are still fine.
I'm baffled as to how anything could be running short already. Is there only a week's stock of these items in Russia?
From a couple of years ago all leaders know that you are always only 48 hours away from a loo-roll riot, followed by a coup, show trials and liquidations.
Well, in snowflake Britain obviously, but I thought grudging acceptance/expectation of shortages was in the Russian DNA.
Equally, Russia does have form for revolutions. 1905, 1917 (x2), and 1991.
They are willing to suffer a lot, but when desperate enough, brave enough.
Interestingly:
1905 Revelation was in the wake of the frailer in the Russia-Japan war - which did not go well for the Russians. 1917 Revelation Was in the middle of the frailer in WW1 which did not going well for the Russians. 1991 Revelation was in the wake of the frailer in their Afghan war- which did not go well for the Russians.
Ok let's assume the sanctions stay for a period...
In a few weeks Putin says "These sanctions are aimed at destroying Russia, therefore unless they're stopped we will launch a nuclear attack."
How does that play out, I wonder?
Even if the sanctions were dropped is anyone going to trade with Russia for the foreseeable future?
Every time I try to see a way out of this mess, I cannot see a safe one.
With these horrendous economic prognoses, there MUST be people close to Putin, close to power, who realise the Ukraine war is an error of galactic magnitude. They are not stupid. They won’t just be watching Russia Today
Will they move? Do you just stand by as an autocrat destroys your own country? They too will have kids and hopes and dreams for a better Russia, not this squalid disaster
Assassins who fail to kill their target don't usually do so well.
And Putin will have his own, extremely loyal, bodyguard.
However, the Hertfordshire town has been interpreted as many different spellings over the years, including 'Boram Woode', 'Borramwode' and 'Barham Wood'.
It is now socially accepted that the town is called Borehamwood, as is regularly seen on street signs.
This may have started with the renaming of Elstree station to Elstree & Borehamwood in 1953.
There has never been an official decision to name the town 'Borehamwood', but Elstree Council became Elstree and Borehamwood council in 1982 and the one-word name has stuck.
"EU unanimously agrees to grant temporary residence to refugees
The EU has agreed to grant temporary residence to Ukrainians fleeing the war, for up to three years.
EU ministers gave the plans the green light at a meeting in Brussels today.
The bloc's triggered a mechanism - that’s never been used before - to allow Ukrainian nationals and their families the right to work, education and welfare.
The EU says that those who held long-term residence or refugee status in Ukraine would also be covered - either by the directive or national rules. And that temporary workers or students, who aren't eligible, would be helped to get home."
Now let's see if 'world-leading Britain' copies that.
I am pleased to see such a humanitarian response.
Perhaps it will encourage a shift in opinion on refugees and asylum. It is a marked contrast to the sink 'em or deport them to Rwanda approach we take to duskier refugees.
Each situation is unique.
Ukraine has been willing to fight whereas in Afghanistan opposition to the Taliban was somewhat lacking.
In both cases though the refugees are those fleeing fighting, not fighting battles. In 2015 it were Syrians as refugees that caused such consternation, and they were fighting.
Perhaps though it is that we are happier with refugees that we feel European kinship towards. Britain is perhaps realising that we Europeans share common cultures and dreams.
I am hearing from a contact that certain pharma, detergent and printer ink is now hard to get hold of.
But basic foodstuffs are still fine.
I'm baffled as to how anything could be running short already. Is there only a week's stock of these items in Russia?
From a couple of years ago all leaders know that you are always only 48 hours away from a loo-roll riot, followed by a coup, show trials and liquidations.
Well, in snowflake Britain obviously, but I thought grudging acceptance/expectation of shortages was in the Russian DNA.
Equally, Russia does have form for revolutions. 1905, 1917 (x2), and 1991.
They are willing to suffer a lot, but when desperate enough, brave enough.
Garry Kasparov interviewed on C4News reckoned there could be millions on the streets before too long.
In which case they'll be liberally butchered with machine gun fire, until the survivors are all either in the gulags or quaking with terror at home. The Russian security apparatus is vast and totally corrupt.
Labour has called on the Tories to return money from donors with links to Russia in response to tensions over Vladimir Putin’s military buildup on the Ukrainian border.
I'm all for de-russifying the tory party, but surely we don't want to be giving tradable foreign currency *back* to Putin-linked Russians right now?
Labour has called on the Tories to return money from donors with links to Russiain response to tensions over Vladimir Putin’s military buildup on the Ukrainian border.
In a joint letter, David Lammy, the shadow foreign secretary, and Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, called on ministers to address Russian finance flowing into the UK.
Writing to their counterparts, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, both possible contenders to succeed Boris Johnson in No 10, Lammy and Reeves said: “Donors who have made money from Russia or have alleged links to the Putin regime have given £1.93m to either the Conservative party or individual Conservative associations since Boris Johnson took power in July 2019. Will the Conservative party agree to return it?”
Wow 1.93m in three years that's about 700k per year or about 2k per Conservative MP.
Can I ask Conservative members here if they're not embarrassed that their party can be bought for such trivial amounts of money ?
Are Conservative politicians so addicted to unearned money that they're willing to damage themselves so much for so little ?
Its the political funding equivalent of a beggar looking for fag ends in the gutter.
This is a really rich attack line for Labour. It ties in nicely with the sleaze lines which have been pushed quite successfully over the last 12 months or so. And now, we have a juicy dimension of the Tories wallowing in sleaze which puts them on the wrong side of the most polarising conflict of the last 50 years or so.
I agree with it but think its mostly preaching to the converted who have already been lost over standards in public life generally. Could be worse, could be a Trumpist or Zemmour/Le Pen where it is not just taking the cash but also advocating the idea of strong men who can make their own rules.
Ok let's assume the sanctions stay for a period...
In a few weeks Putin says "These sanctions are aimed at destroying Russia, therefore unless they're stopped we will launch a nuclear attack."
How does that play out, I wonder?
Even if the sanctions were dropped is anyone going to trade with Russia for the foreseeable future?
Every time I try to see a way out of this mess, I cannot see a safe one.
With these horrendous economic prognoses, there MUST be people close to Putin, close to power, who realise the Ukraine war is an error of galactic magnitude. They are not stupid. They won’t just be watching Russia Today
Will they move? Do you just stand by as an autocrat destroys your own country? They too will have kids and hopes and dreams for a better Russia, not this squalid disaster
Assassins who fail to kill their target don't usually do so well.
And Putin will have his own, extremely loyal, bodyguard.
I was thinking more of a palace coup. Top technocrats, generals, spies, oligarchs. They can see the catastrophe unfolding for Russia
But maybe I am giving in to hopecasting, and Putin has total control, and things will indeed get worse. As he promised Macron
Putin's response to any set back is always escalation. And I'm sure he can make things bloody awful for the people of Ukraine.
The only problem is that still doesn't solve Putin's problems. Indeed, it just brings him a host of new ones.
And this is on top of Covid. And all completely pointless
‘LONDON, March 3 (Reuters) - JPMorgan said on Thursday it expected Russia's economy to contract 35% in the second quarter and 7% in 2022 with the economy suffering an economic output decline comparable to the 1998 crisis.’
Many on the thread saying this is way too optimistic for Russia
I’m struggling to make sense of those numbers. It’s only just March. Down 35% in the quarter but only 7% for the year?
Yes. That basically assumes that Q1, Q3 and Q4 will all be perfectly normal quarters. (35% of 25% = 7-8%).
So it's a rubbish forecast.
Or potentially pricing in regime change and removal of sanctions. If it's as you say then it's completely idiotic, the -35% for Q2 sets a new lower baseline.
If the Russian economy does NOT bounce back Putin will - on these figures - have shrunk the Russian economy by a third, in order to gain the enmity of the entire world, ruin his country’s moral reputation, and make his vaunted army look pathetically laughable, in order to gain control of loads and loads of rubble, and rule over 40 million people who all want him dead, and might try to arrange that
It makes the 2nd Iraq war look like a brilliant piece of historic statecraft
Well yes.
There's no good outcome for Putin now:
Afghanistan II (but with massive financial sanctions) or Retreat (and Ukraine joins the EU and NATO) or Nuclear holocaust
I think that it'll be the first. Putin can't be the Czar if he lets go of part of his empire and runs away, and he can't be the Czar if both he and his empire end up being turned into a vast sheet of irradiated glass.
He's an absolute monarch who is quite happy to let his army and his civil population alike suffer terribly to achieve what he wants. Inflicting years of indiscriminate butchery on the Ukrainian population - until everyone who won't accept absorption by Russia is either dead or in exile - won't faze the man at all. Nor will turning Russia into a vast new North Korea. Life under the Kim dynasty is, after all, vastly worse even than life under Putin, yet they've been in power since the late 1940s.
Basically if he's as cruel and merciless as Stalin (compared with whose reign of terror the late-period Soviet Union looks positively herbivorous,) then he can do almost whatever he wants. So long as the man shows a sufficient regard for the survival of Russia and his own self-preservation not to attempt a direct military engagement with NATO then he can do what he likes to both Ukraine and Belarus - which, whilst he would also doubtless like to recapture the Baltic States, are much larger and more critical to his project.
Stalin could go further than Putin for two main reasons: 1) a lot easier to control information flow in his day; and 2) so many ordinary Russians endured the most appalling suffering because of idealism - they shared a genuine revolutionary zeal.
"EU unanimously agrees to grant temporary residence to refugees
The EU has agreed to grant temporary residence to Ukrainians fleeing the war, for up to three years.
EU ministers gave the plans the green light at a meeting in Brussels today.
The bloc's triggered a mechanism - that’s never been used before - to allow Ukrainian nationals and their families the right to work, education and welfare.
The EU says that those who held long-term residence or refugee status in Ukraine would also be covered - either by the directive or national rules. And that temporary workers or students, who aren't eligible, would be helped to get home."
Now let's see if 'world-leading Britain' copies that.
I am pleased to see such a humanitarian response.
Perhaps it will encourage a shift in opinion on refugees and asylum. It is a marked contrast to the sink 'em or deport them to Rwanda approach we take to duskier refugees.
Each situation is unique.
Ukraine has been willing to fight whereas in Afghanistan opposition to the Taliban was somewhat lacking.
In both cases though the refugees are those fleeing fighting, not fighting battles. In 2015 it were Syrians as refugees that caused such consternation, and they were fighting.
Perhaps though it is that we are happier with refugees that we feel European kinship towards. Britain is perhaps realising that we Europeans share common cultures and dreams.
We've provided a lot of funding towards looking after refugees in Syria. Unlike some other countries...
I am hearing from a contact that certain pharma, detergent and printer ink is now hard to get hold of.
But basic foodstuffs are still fine.
I'm baffled as to how anything could be running short already. Is there only a week's stock of these items in Russia?
From a couple of years ago all leaders know that you are always only 48 hours away from a loo-roll riot, followed by a coup, show trials and liquidations.
Well, in snowflake Britain obviously, but I thought grudging acceptance/expectation of shortages was in the Russian DNA.
Equally, Russia does have form for revolutions. 1905, 1917 (x2), and 1991.
They are willing to suffer a lot, but when desperate enough, brave enough.
Garry Kasparov interviewed on C4News reckoned there could be millions on the streets before too long.
In which case they'll be liberally butchered with machine gun fire, until the survivors are all either in the gulags or quaking with terror at home. The Russian security apparatus is vast and totally corrupt.
According to Navalny, arrests run to around 7000, but no shots fired.
Revolutions often turn when internal security forces refuse to fire on protestors, and join them instead.
Shoutout for the Polish ambassador - the only one to stick around.
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1499474258283614213 Polish Ambassador Bartosz Cichocki sat in a 2nd-floor room lined with large windows, wearing a soccer jersey and sipping a glass scotch, full of bravado, and shrugging off the missile explosions that reverberated through the Ukrainian capital.
Actually the Croatian Ambassador is still in Kyiv too.
Ok let's assume the sanctions stay for a period...
In a few weeks Putin says "These sanctions are aimed at destroying Russia, therefore unless they're stopped we will launch a nuclear attack."
How does that play out, I wonder?
Even if the sanctions were dropped is anyone going to trade with Russia for the foreseeable future?
Every time I try to see a way out of this mess, I cannot see a safe one.
With these horrendous economic prognoses, there MUST be people close to Putin, close to power, who realise the Ukraine war is an error of galactic magnitude. They are not stupid. They won’t just be watching Russia Today
Will they move? Do you just stand by as an autocrat destroys your own country? They too will have kids and hopes and dreams for a better Russia, not this squalid disaster
Assassins who fail to kill their target don't usually do so well.
And Putin will have his own, extremely loyal, bodyguard.
NEW: Based on "information available", the command of a unit of Belarusian paratroopers has received an order to cross the border into Ukraine, according to a Ukrainian update on Russia’s invasion. A combat order would be made after the crossing, it said, without giving dates 1/
The update also described the morale of the Belarusian soldiers from the 38th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade as “extremely low”, noting: “The officers and soldiers do not want to play the role of Russian mercenaries.” 2/
Ok let's assume the sanctions stay for a period...
In a few weeks Putin says "These sanctions are aimed at destroying Russia, therefore unless they're stopped we will launch a nuclear attack."
How does that play out, I wonder?
Even if the sanctions were dropped is anyone going to trade with Russia for the foreseeable future?
Every time I try to see a way out of this mess, I cannot see a safe one.
With these horrendous economic prognoses, there MUST be people close to Putin, close to power, who realise the Ukraine war is an error of galactic magnitude. They are not stupid. They won’t just be watching Russia Today
Will they move? Do you just stand by as an autocrat destroys your own country? They too will have kids and hopes and dreams for a better Russia, not this squalid disaster
Assassins who fail to kill their target don't usually do so well.
And Putin will have his own, extremely loyal, bodyguard.
I was thinking more of a palace coup. Top technocrats, generals, spies, oligarchs. They can see the catastrophe unfolding for Russia
But maybe I am giving in to hopecasting, and Putin has total control, and things will indeed get worse. As he promised Macron
WRT Putin and Russia, it is best to assume that everything we see is an act. People have a habit of projecting their own experience of politics and politicians on to this act, but in doing so they are being taken for idiots. Speculating about palace coups is hopeless.
Labour has called on the Tories to return money from donors with links to Russia in response to tensions over Vladimir Putin’s military buildup on the Ukrainian border.
I'm all for de-russifying the tory party, but surely we don't want to be giving tradable foreign currency *back* to Putin-linked Russians right now?
This is the russified Tory Party that has trained 22,000 Ukrainian soldiers and provided them with thousands of lethal weapons over the last eight years?
I think the main lesson from this conflict is that political donations are lousy value for money.
"EU unanimously agrees to grant temporary residence to refugees
The EU has agreed to grant temporary residence to Ukrainians fleeing the war, for up to three years.
EU ministers gave the plans the green light at a meeting in Brussels today.
The bloc's triggered a mechanism - that’s never been used before - to allow Ukrainian nationals and their families the right to work, education and welfare.
The EU says that those who held long-term residence or refugee status in Ukraine would also be covered - either by the directive or national rules. And that temporary workers or students, who aren't eligible, would be helped to get home."
Now let's see if 'world-leading Britain' copies that.
I am pleased to see such a humanitarian response.
Perhaps it will encourage a shift in opinion on refugees and asylum. It is a marked contrast to the sink 'em or deport them to Rwanda approach we take to duskier refugees.
Each situation is unique.
Ukraine has been willing to fight whereas in Afghanistan opposition to the Taliban was somewhat lacking.
In both cases though the refugees are those fleeing fighting, not fighting battles. In 2015 it were Syrians as refugees that caused such consternation, and they were fighting.
Perhaps though it is that we are happier with refugees that we feel European kinship towards. Britain is perhaps realising that we Europeans share common cultures and dreams.
We've provided a lot of funding towards looking after refugees in Syria. Unlike some other countries...
Sure, but not promises of visa waivers for 3 years, even for those syrians/afghans with relatives.
Personally I don't have a problem with accepting Ukranian, and dissenter Russian refugees. It is however a big shift in refugee policy from "sink 'em in the channel" "prosecute those who help refugees enter" and a very welcome awakening to our responsibilities to the victims of war.
"EU unanimously agrees to grant temporary residence to refugees
The EU has agreed to grant temporary residence to Ukrainians fleeing the war, for up to three years.
EU ministers gave the plans the green light at a meeting in Brussels today.
The bloc's triggered a mechanism - that’s never been used before - to allow Ukrainian nationals and their families the right to work, education and welfare.
The EU says that those who held long-term residence or refugee status in Ukraine would also be covered - either by the directive or national rules. And that temporary workers or students, who aren't eligible, would be helped to get home."
Now let's see if 'world-leading Britain' copies that.
I am pleased to see such a humanitarian response.
Perhaps it will encourage a shift in opinion on refugees and asylum. It is a marked contrast to the sink 'em or deport them to Rwanda approach we take to duskier refugees.
Each situation is unique.
Ukraine has been willing to fight whereas in Afghanistan opposition to the Taliban was somewhat lacking.
In both cases though the refugees are those fleeing fighting, not fighting battles. In 2015 it were Syrians as refugees that caused such consternation, and they were fighting.
Perhaps though it is that we are happier with refugees that we feel European kinship towards. Britain is perhaps realising that we Europeans share common cultures and dreams.
I don't think that last point has ever not been realised.
There's also the difference that wars in Europe aren't meant to happen whereas they never stop happening in the Middle East in particular and the third world in general.
Presumably, at some point Putin is going to say: I'll call a ceasefire if you reverse all the financial sanctions.
What does the West do then?
Nothing without full withdrawal from Ukraine
Pre 2014 borders ?
The status of the Budapest Memorandum is a rational stance for Ukraine, since Russia is one of the signatories, and since the 1991 referendum on independence from Russia - the most recent credible vote aiui - was 84% in favour of independence from Russia.
Reports of growing problems in Russia and young men "going to the country" to escape conscription. Russians attempting to get across the Estonian border before Putin declares martial law. The sanctions are bad enough, but the decisions to leave Russia have devastated the middle class.
I´ll write more tomorrow, but situation in Russia is not good and you get the sense that the longer this goes on, the more likely a mutiny is becoming.
I spoke to a Moscow based Russian today. He is out of foreign currency. He is also more or less out of roubles. Because his cards don’t work and he can’t draw more without an appointment at the bank, which are hard to come by. And prices are presumably already rising. I expect he is typical. Better placed than most actually given his income level and education. Described it as the darkest days in Russia in his lifetime.
After Lehman’s collapsed, I recall Robert Peston wetting his pants about the ATMs not working the next day, so the clunking fist printed money to bail out all the banks. What is happening in Russia this week is what happens without a viable route to the bail out. It’s remarkable how little coverage this is getting. Not so good for viewing figures as war porn I suppose.
Why can't they print roubles? Is that a daft question?
They can indeed print roubles, which is why although @moonshine is right in his general thrust, I think he's wrong in the specifics.
Russia should be able to keep its banking system afloat by bathing the system in newly printed roubles.
But that all that does is shift the problem.
Because all the roubles in the world can't change the fact that a lot of consumer goods that Russians took for granted will no longer be available in the shops. Sure, there will be domestic food and vodka, but what about imported wine, beer and spirits?
What about the fact that spare parts for cars will rapidly run out? What about vital components used in manufacturing that need to be imported? Supply chains will be drying up everywhere, and there are very few things in Russia (or anywhere else) that can be be made entirely without some foreign widget.
And if the factory isn't producing stuff, how does it pay its staff?
And how will Russians react to empty shelves?
Inflation will be horrendous.
The central bank has been burning through reserves and has tripled(?) interest rates in a forlorn attempt to control inflation. Printing roubles in this environment is the path to Weimar funny money.
Labour has called on the Tories to return money from donors with links to Russia in response to tensions over Vladimir Putin’s military buildup on the Ukrainian border.
I'm all for de-russifying the tory party, but surely we don't want to be giving tradable foreign currency *back* to Putin-linked Russians right now?
This is the russified Tory Party that has trained 22,000 Ukrainian soldiers and provided them with thousands of lethal weapons over the last eight years?
I think the main lesson from this conflict is that political donations are lousy value for money.
It is almost inconceivable that Pig Dog should say anything which turned out not to be true, but what's the evidence for the 22,000 claim?
I am hearing from a contact that certain pharma, detergent and printer ink is now hard to get hold of.
But basic foodstuffs are still fine.
I'm baffled as to how anything could be running short already. Is there only a week's stock of these items in Russia?
From a couple of years ago all leaders know that you are always only 48 hours away from a loo-roll riot, followed by a coup, show trials and liquidations.
Well, in snowflake Britain obviously, but I thought grudging acceptance/expectation of shortages was in the Russian DNA.
Equally, Russia does have form for revolutions. 1905, 1917 (x2), and 1991.
They are willing to suffer a lot, but when desperate enough, brave enough.
Interestingly:
1905 Revelation was in the wake of the frailer in the Russia-Japan war - which did not go well for the Russians. 1917 Revelation Was in the middle of the frailer in WW1 which did not going well for the Russians. 1991 Revelation was in the wake of the frailer in their Afghan war- which did not go well for the Russians.
"EU unanimously agrees to grant temporary residence to refugees
The EU has agreed to grant temporary residence to Ukrainians fleeing the war, for up to three years.
EU ministers gave the plans the green light at a meeting in Brussels today.
The bloc's triggered a mechanism - that’s never been used before - to allow Ukrainian nationals and their families the right to work, education and welfare.
The EU says that those who held long-term residence or refugee status in Ukraine would also be covered - either by the directive or national rules. And that temporary workers or students, who aren't eligible, would be helped to get home."
Now let's see if 'world-leading Britain' copies that.
I am pleased to see such a humanitarian response.
Perhaps it will encourage a shift in opinion on refugees and asylum. It is a marked contrast to the sink 'em or deport them to Rwanda approach we take to duskier refugees.
Each situation is unique.
Ukraine has been willing to fight whereas in Afghanistan opposition to the Taliban was somewhat lacking.
In both cases though the refugees are those fleeing fighting, not fighting battles. In 2015 it were Syrians as refugees that caused such consternation, and they were fighting.
Perhaps though it is that we are happier with refugees that we feel European kinship towards. Britain is perhaps realising that we Europeans share common cultures and dreams.
We've provided a lot of funding towards looking after refugees in Syria. Unlike some other countries...
Sure, but not promises of visa waivers for 3 years, even for those syrians/afghans with relatives.
Personally I don't have a problem with accepting Ukranian, and dissenter Russian refugees. It is however a big shift in refugee policy from "sink 'em in the channel" "prosecute those who help refugees enter" and a very welcome awakening to our responsibilities to the victims of war.
Perhaps if more was done about the channel, then we'd be willing to do more about genuine refugees.
Ok let's assume the sanctions stay for a period...
In a few weeks Putin says "These sanctions are aimed at destroying Russia, therefore unless they're stopped we will launch a nuclear attack."
How does that play out, I wonder?
Even if the sanctions were dropped is anyone going to trade with Russia for the foreseeable future?
Every time I try to see a way out of this mess, I cannot see a safe one.
With these horrendous economic prognoses, there MUST be people close to Putin, close to power, who realise the Ukraine war is an error of galactic magnitude. They are not stupid. They won’t just be watching Russia Today
Will they move? Do you just stand by as an autocrat destroys your own country? They too will have kids and hopes and dreams for a better Russia, not this squalid disaster
Assassins who fail to kill their target don't usually do so well.
And Putin will have his own, extremely loyal, bodyguard.
I was thinking more of a palace coup. Top technocrats, generals, spies, oligarchs. They can see the catastrophe unfolding for Russia
But maybe I am giving in to hopecasting, and Putin has total control, and things will indeed get worse. As he promised Macron
I had a terrible thought earlier.
In Washington they must be at least game planning the ultimate: a first strike to take this madman out before he burns the world to hell.
I read somewhere that Putin is now in some deep bunker under the Urals, presumably for just this reason. Would explain his latest meetings by Zoom
It may be bollocks of course. Perhaps he confidently strides the Kremlin? But he can’t be that confident, he will know assassination is a real threat
And it will be the ultra loyal bodyguard who lost his son and brothers in to Ukrainian weapons that will give Putin his "et tu, Brute" moment.
Have you read the end of Red Storm Rising?
I was actually just thinking of that this morning: the army train diverted to the central station, etc.
Ok let's assume the sanctions stay for a period...
In a few weeks Putin says "These sanctions are aimed at destroying Russia, therefore unless they're stopped we will launch a nuclear attack."
How does that play out, I wonder?
Even if the sanctions were dropped is anyone going to trade with Russia for the foreseeable future?
Every time I try to see a way out of this mess, I cannot see a safe one.
With these horrendous economic prognoses, there MUST be people close to Putin, close to power, who realise the Ukraine war is an error of galactic magnitude. They are not stupid. They won’t just be watching Russia Today
Will they move? Do you just stand by as an autocrat destroys your own country? They too will have kids and hopes and dreams for a better Russia, not this squalid disaster
Assassins who fail to kill their target don't usually do so well.
And Putin will have his own, extremely loyal, bodyguard.
I was thinking more of a palace coup. Top technocrats, generals, spies, oligarchs. They can see the catastrophe unfolding for Russia
But maybe I am giving in to hopecasting, and Putin has total control, and things will indeed get worse. As he promised Macron
Putin's response to any set back is always escalation. And I'm sure he can make things bloody awful for the people of Ukraine.
The only problem is that still doesn't solve Putin's problems. Indeed, it just brings him a host of new ones.
I am hearing from a contact that certain pharma, detergent and printer ink is now hard to get hold of.
But basic foodstuffs are still fine.
I'm baffled as to how anything could be running short already. Is there only a week's stock of these items in Russia?
From a couple of years ago all leaders know that you are always only 48 hours away from a loo-roll riot, followed by a coup, show trials and liquidations.
Well, in snowflake Britain obviously, but I thought grudging acceptance/expectation of shortages was in the Russian DNA.
Equally, Russia does have form for revolutions. 1905, 1917 (x2), and 1991.
They are willing to suffer a lot, but when desperate enough, brave enough.
Garry Kasparov interviewed on C4News reckoned there could be millions on the streets before too long.
In which case they'll be liberally butchered with machine gun fire, until the survivors are all either in the gulags or quaking with terror at home. The Russian security apparatus is vast and totally corrupt.
According to Navalny, arrests run to around 7000, but no shots fired.
Revolutions often turn when internal security forces refuse to fire on protestors, and join them instead.
Then again, the most likely explanation for that is simply that the security forces have been able to deal with dissent effectively, so far anyway, without having to resort to the use of live rounds.
Moreover, the more lawless and degenerate the Russian state becomes, the better a career as an enforcer sounds. You still have secure employment and can extort from the collapsing middle class what's left of its wealth through receipt of bribes, coercion and theft.
"EU unanimously agrees to grant temporary residence to refugees
The EU has agreed to grant temporary residence to Ukrainians fleeing the war, for up to three years.
EU ministers gave the plans the green light at a meeting in Brussels today.
The bloc's triggered a mechanism - that’s never been used before - to allow Ukrainian nationals and their families the right to work, education and welfare.
The EU says that those who held long-term residence or refugee status in Ukraine would also be covered - either by the directive or national rules. And that temporary workers or students, who aren't eligible, would be helped to get home."
Now let's see if 'world-leading Britain' copies that.
I am pleased to see such a humanitarian response.
Perhaps it will encourage a shift in opinion on refugees and asylum. It is a marked contrast to the sink 'em or deport them to Rwanda approach we take to duskier refugees.
Each situation is unique.
Ukraine has been willing to fight whereas in Afghanistan opposition to the Taliban was somewhat lacking.
In both cases though the refugees are those fleeing fighting, not fighting battles. In 2015 it were Syrians as refugees that caused such consternation, and they were fighting.
Perhaps though it is that we are happier with refugees that we feel European kinship towards. Britain is perhaps realising that we Europeans share common cultures and dreams.
We've provided a lot of funding towards looking after refugees in Syria. Unlike some other countries...
Sure, but not promises of visa waivers for 3 years, even for those syrians/afghans with relatives.
Personally I don't have a problem with accepting Ukranian, and dissenter Russian refugees. It is however a big shift in refugee policy from "sink 'em in the channel" "prosecute those who help refugees enter" and a very welcome awakening to our responsibilities to the victims of war.
You forget it was the British Government that proposed we should go directly into the camps around Syria and lift out those most in need. It was the German government who decided to just have a policy of anyone who can survive the dangerous journey is welcome but the those who drown are just unlucky. And yes that sounds harsh but that was effectively exactly what Merkel was proposing and that is why she still has blood on her hands.
"EU unanimously agrees to grant temporary residence to refugees
The EU has agreed to grant temporary residence to Ukrainians fleeing the war, for up to three years.
EU ministers gave the plans the green light at a meeting in Brussels today.
The bloc's triggered a mechanism - that’s never been used before - to allow Ukrainian nationals and their families the right to work, education and welfare.
The EU says that those who held long-term residence or refugee status in Ukraine would also be covered - either by the directive or national rules. And that temporary workers or students, who aren't eligible, would be helped to get home."
Now let's see if 'world-leading Britain' copies that.
I am pleased to see such a humanitarian response.
Perhaps it will encourage a shift in opinion on refugees and asylum. It is a marked contrast to the sink 'em or deport them to Rwanda approach we take to duskier refugees.
Each situation is unique.
Ukraine has been willing to fight whereas in Afghanistan opposition to the Taliban was somewhat lacking.
In both cases though the refugees are those fleeing fighting, not fighting battles. In 2015 it were Syrians as refugees that caused such consternation, and they were fighting.
Perhaps though it is that we are happier with refugees that we feel European kinship towards. Britain is perhaps realising that we Europeans share common cultures and dreams.
We've provided a lot of funding towards looking after refugees in Syria. Unlike some other countries...
Sure, but not promises of visa waivers for 3 years, even for those syrians/afghans with relatives.
Personally I don't have a problem with accepting Ukranian, and dissenter Russian refugees. It is however a big shift in refugee policy from "sink 'em in the channel" "prosecute those who help refugees enter" and a very welcome awakening to our responsibilities to the victims of war.
Perhaps if more was done about the channel, then we'd be willing to do more about genuine refugees.
Though most asylum seekers do get accepted, thereby are legitimate refugees. Ukranians too have to pass through several safe countries to get here.
I do hope the Russo-Ukranian War does lead to a more enlightened approach to refugees.
Ok let's assume the sanctions stay for a period...
In a few weeks Putin says "These sanctions are aimed at destroying Russia, therefore unless they're stopped we will launch a nuclear attack."
How does that play out, I wonder?
Even if the sanctions were dropped is anyone going to trade with Russia for the foreseeable future?
Every time I try to see a way out of this mess, I cannot see a safe one.
With these horrendous economic prognoses, there MUST be people close to Putin, close to power, who realise the Ukraine war is an error of galactic magnitude. They are not stupid. They won’t just be watching Russia Today
Will they move? Do you just stand by as an autocrat destroys your own country? They too will have kids and hopes and dreams for a better Russia, not this squalid disaster
Assassins who fail to kill their target don't usually do so well.
And Putin will have his own, extremely loyal, bodyguard.
I was thinking more of a palace coup. Top technocrats, generals, spies, oligarchs. They can see the catastrophe unfolding for Russia
But maybe I am giving in to hopecasting, and Putin has total control, and things will indeed get worse. As he promised Macron
WRT Putin and Russia, it is best to assume that everything we see is an act. People have a habit of projecting their own experience of politics and politicians on to this act, but in doing so they are being taken for idiots. Speculating about palace coups is hopeless.
Why on earth is it ‘hopeless’? What a peculiar thing to say. This is politicalbetting.com. We try to forecast political outcomes
A palace coup, removing Putin, is far from impossible. Indeed I’d say it is ONE of the more likely routes out of this incredible mess. Putin is more like a tsar or a sultan than a communist dictator. He has less absolute power than someone like Xi, and he has just committed a fuck up of the first order. He is imperilled
Labour has called on the Tories to return money from donors with links to Russiain response to tensions over Vladimir Putin’s military buildup on the Ukrainian border.
In a joint letter, David Lammy, the shadow foreign secretary, and Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, called on ministers to address Russian finance flowing into the UK.
Writing to their counterparts, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, both possible contenders to succeed Boris Johnson in No 10, Lammy and Reeves said: “Donors who have made money from Russia or have alleged links to the Putin regime have given £1.93m to either the Conservative party or individual Conservative associations since Boris Johnson took power in July 2019. Will the Conservative party agree to return it?”
Wow 1.93m in three years that's about 700k per year or about 2k per Conservative MP.
Can I ask Conservative members here if they're not embarrassed that their party can be bought for such trivial amounts of money ?
Are Conservative politicians so addicted to unearned money that they're willing to damage themselves so much for so little ?
Its the political funding equivalent of a beggar looking for fag ends in the gutter.
This is a really rich attack line for Labour. It ties in nicely with the sleaze lines which have been pushed quite successfully over the last 12 months or so. And now, we have a juicy dimension of the Tories wallowing in sleaze which puts them on the wrong side of the most polarising conflict of the last 50 years or so.
Sleaze can be expected but what, to me, is staggering is the stupidity involved.
The political risk for the money being received would surely be deemed too high for anyone not addicted to unearned income:
"EU unanimously agrees to grant temporary residence to refugees
The EU has agreed to grant temporary residence to Ukrainians fleeing the war, for up to three years.
EU ministers gave the plans the green light at a meeting in Brussels today.
The bloc's triggered a mechanism - that’s never been used before - to allow Ukrainian nationals and their families the right to work, education and welfare.
The EU says that those who held long-term residence or refugee status in Ukraine would also be covered - either by the directive or national rules. And that temporary workers or students, who aren't eligible, would be helped to get home."
Now let's see if 'world-leading Britain' copies that.
I am pleased to see such a humanitarian response.
Perhaps it will encourage a shift in opinion on refugees and asylum. It is a marked contrast to the sink 'em or deport them to Rwanda approach we take to duskier refugees.
Each situation is unique.
Ukraine has been willing to fight whereas in Afghanistan opposition to the Taliban was somewhat lacking.
In both cases though the refugees are those fleeing fighting, not fighting battles. In 2015 it were Syrians as refugees that caused such consternation, and they were fighting.
Perhaps though it is that we are happier with refugees that we feel European kinship towards. Britain is perhaps realising that we Europeans share common cultures and dreams.
We've provided a lot of funding towards looking after refugees in Syria. Unlike some other countries...
Sure, but not promises of visa waivers for 3 years, even for those syrians/afghans with relatives.
Personally I don't have a problem with accepting Ukranian, and dissenter Russian refugees. It is however a big shift in refugee policy from "sink 'em in the channel" "prosecute those who help refugees enter" and a very welcome awakening to our responsibilities to the victims of war.
Perhaps if more was done about the channel, then we'd be willing to do more about genuine refugees.
Though most asylum seekers do get accepted, thereby are legitimate refugees. Ukranians too have to pass through several safe countries to get here.
I do hope the Russo-Ukranian War does lead to a more enlightened approach to refugees.
No doubt the Ukrainians will be getting in the boats to cross the channel.
Reports of growing problems in Russia and young men "going to the country" to escape conscription. Russians attempting to get across the Estonian border before Putin declares martial law. The sanctions are bad enough, but the decisions to leave Russia have devastated the middle class.
I´ll write more tomorrow, but situation in Russia is not good and you get the sense that the longer this goes on, the more likely a mutiny is becoming.
Shoutout for the Polish ambassador - the only one to stick around.
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1499474258283614213 Polish Ambassador Bartosz Cichocki sat in a 2nd-floor room lined with large windows, wearing a soccer jersey and sipping a glass scotch, full of bravado, and shrugging off the missile explosions that reverberated through the Ukrainian capital.
Actually the Croatian Ambassador is still in Kyiv too.
Labour has called on the Tories to return money from donors with links to Russia in response to tensions over Vladimir Putin’s military buildup on the Ukrainian border.
I'm all for de-russifying the tory party, but surely we don't want to be giving tradable foreign currency *back* to Putin-linked Russians right now?
This is the russified Tory Party that has trained 22,000 Ukrainian soldiers and provided them with thousands of lethal weapons over the last eight years?
I think the main lesson from this conflict is that political donations are lousy value for money.
It is almost inconceivable that Pig Dog should say anything which turned out not to be true, but what's the evidence for the 22,000 claim?
It's been repeated by several loyalists on here, surely that's good enough for anyone?
I am hearing from a contact that certain pharma, detergent and printer ink is now hard to get hold of.
But basic foodstuffs are still fine.
I'm baffled as to how anything could be running short already. Is there only a week's stock of these items in Russia?
From a couple of years ago all leaders know that you are always only 48 hours away from a loo-roll riot, followed by a coup, show trials and liquidations.
Well, in snowflake Britain obviously, but I thought grudging acceptance/expectation of shortages was in the Russian DNA.
Equally, Russia does have form for revolutions. 1905, 1917 (x2), and 1991.
They are willing to suffer a lot, but when desperate enough, brave enough.
Garry Kasparov interviewed on C4News reckoned there could be millions on the streets before too long.
I hope he is right but I think he has been predicting millions of protesters on the streets of Moscow for a long time now,
For anyone thinking russia will subdue Ukraine easily. I have a friend in ukraine that lives in Chessarky and was talking to her earlier to check she was ok as hadnt seen her on line for a few days.....to quote her on the subject of the russian invasion
".they exaggerated their power too much. And Ukraine will fight to the last drop of blood."
This coming from one of of the most peaceful people I know
"EU unanimously agrees to grant temporary residence to refugees
The EU has agreed to grant temporary residence to Ukrainians fleeing the war, for up to three years.
EU ministers gave the plans the green light at a meeting in Brussels today.
The bloc's triggered a mechanism - that’s never been used before - to allow Ukrainian nationals and their families the right to work, education and welfare.
The EU says that those who held long-term residence or refugee status in Ukraine would also be covered - either by the directive or national rules. And that temporary workers or students, who aren't eligible, would be helped to get home."
Now let's see if 'world-leading Britain' copies that.
I am pleased to see such a humanitarian response.
Perhaps it will encourage a shift in opinion on refugees and asylum. It is a marked contrast to the sink 'em or deport them to Rwanda approach we take to duskier refugees.
Each situation is unique.
Ukraine has been willing to fight whereas in Afghanistan opposition to the Taliban was somewhat lacking.
In both cases though the refugees are those fleeing fighting, not fighting battles. In 2015 it were Syrians as refugees that caused such consternation, and they were fighting.
Perhaps though it is that we are happier with refugees that we feel European kinship towards. Britain is perhaps realising that we Europeans share common cultures and dreams.
We've provided a lot of funding towards looking after refugees in Syria. Unlike some other countries...
Sure, but not promises of visa waivers for 3 years, even for those syrians/afghans with relatives.
Personally I don't have a problem with accepting Ukranian, and dissenter Russian refugees. It is however a big shift in refugee policy from "sink 'em in the channel" "prosecute those who help refugees enter" and a very welcome awakening to our responsibilities to the victims of war.
You forget it was the British Government that proposed we should go directly into the camps around Syria and lift out those most in need. It was the German government who decided to just have a policy of anyone who can survive the dangerous journey is welcome but the those who drown are just unlucky. And yes that sounds harsh but that was effectively exactly what Merkel was proposing and that is why she still has blood on her hands.
Yes, though very few Syrians did come by that route.
I appreciate that there is a lot of cognitive dissonance around our approach to Ukranian refugees compared to other refugees. It is an uncomfortable thing to reflect upon, but clearly there is a lot more sympathy with one's of East European origin compared to the Middle East and Africa.
Until 1967 the refugee convention only applied to Europeans, being drafted in the post war and cold War period.
Ok let's assume the sanctions stay for a period...
In a few weeks Putin says "These sanctions are aimed at destroying Russia, therefore unless they're stopped we will launch a nuclear attack."
How does that play out, I wonder?
Even if the sanctions were dropped is anyone going to trade with Russia for the foreseeable future?
Every time I try to see a way out of this mess, I cannot see a safe one.
With these horrendous economic prognoses, there MUST be people close to Putin, close to power, who realise the Ukraine war is an error of galactic magnitude. They are not stupid. They won’t just be watching Russia Today
Will they move? Do you just stand by as an autocrat destroys your own country? They too will have kids and hopes and dreams for a better Russia, not this squalid disaster
Assassins who fail to kill their target don't usually do so well.
And Putin will have his own, extremely loyal, bodyguard.
NEW: Based on "information available", the command of a unit of Belarusian paratroopers has received an order to cross the border into Ukraine, according to a Ukrainian update on Russia’s invasion. A combat order would be made after the crossing, it said, without giving dates 1/
The update also described the morale of the Belarusian soldiers from the 38th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade as “extremely low”, noting: “The officers and soldiers do not want to play the role of Russian mercenaries.” 2/
Not the first report of Belarussians being reticent about crossing the border today.
Hard to blame them. Even if they themselves personally believe everything their own president says, what business is it of theirs that the Russians feel it is necessary to go into Ukraine? Not worth dying just to be Putin's dog.
Labour has called on the Tories to return money from donors with links to Russia in response to tensions over Vladimir Putin’s military buildup on the Ukrainian border.
I'm all for de-russifying the tory party, but surely we don't want to be giving tradable foreign currency *back* to Putin-linked Russians right now?
Labour could up the pressure by suggesting the Tories should donate any monies they have received to the charities supporting the refugees from Ukraine. That way the victims benefit rather than the aggressors.
Still, not to worry, the Third Horseman approaches. Famine
⚡️Economist says Russian invasion could lead to largest wheat shortage in history.
The invasion will cause a massive supply shock and nothing can be done in the short term to prevent it, according to @ScottIrwinUI, as quoted by Bloomberg.’
Have you ever gone three months without predicting the end of the world? Perhaps you could found Apocalypse Anonymous.
I looked up the weirdest addictions and predicting disasters is not in the list. Addiction to the Argentine Tango struck me as a bit weird but is apparently real.
This affliction however does explain a few things:
- Visit all the countries in the world (before they disappear)
- Consume alcohol and drugs (to take your mind off of it or conversely imagine new disasters)
I feel like, military preparedness aside, Putin also failed to shore up his economic defences. He’s also failed to prepare his population.
A Russia subsidised by China could ride this out, with some dislocation, and with the support of a properly propagandised population.
He’s really fucked this.
I think he genuinely deluded himself into thinking the Russian army would be some kind of liberating force and they'd be welcomed by the Ukrainians as relieving them from the burdens of democracy. Now faced with the reality of a Ukrainian population that has been armed to the teeth by the US and UK for the past three months and new arms coming from European countries as well as general resolve to preserve their freedom Putin seems completely lost.
They're resorting to tactics used in countries where they only really had a strategic stake like Syria or Libya, the invasion of Ukraine goes beyond just a small strategic gain of Crimea (which they had anyway), there's an emotional aspect here and as has been reported time and again, loads of Russian soldiers aren't on board with the idea of shooting Ukrainians.
I am hearing from a contact that certain pharma, detergent and printer ink is now hard to get hold of.
But basic foodstuffs are still fine.
I'm baffled as to how anything could be running short already. Is there only a week's stock of these items in Russia?
From a couple of years ago all leaders know that you are always only 48 hours away from a loo-roll riot, followed by a coup, show trials and liquidations.
Well, in snowflake Britain obviously, but I thought grudging acceptance/expectation of shortages was in the Russian DNA.
Equally, Russia does have form for revolutions. 1905, 1917 (x2), and 1991.
They are willing to suffer a lot, but when desperate enough, brave enough.
Garry Kasparov interviewed on C4News reckoned there could be millions on the streets before too long.
I hope he is right but I think he has been predicting millions of protesters on the streets of Moscow for a long time now,
Ok let's assume the sanctions stay for a period...
In a few weeks Putin says "These sanctions are aimed at destroying Russia, therefore unless they're stopped we will launch a nuclear attack."
How does that play out, I wonder?
Even if the sanctions were dropped is anyone going to trade with Russia for the foreseeable future?
Every time I try to see a way out of this mess, I cannot see a safe one.
With these horrendous economic prognoses, there MUST be people close to Putin, close to power, who realise the Ukraine war is an error of galactic magnitude. They are not stupid. They won’t just be watching Russia Today
Will they move? Do you just stand by as an autocrat destroys your own country? They too will have kids and hopes and dreams for a better Russia, not this squalid disaster
Assassins who fail to kill their target don't usually do so well.
And Putin will have his own, extremely loyal, bodyguard.
I was thinking more of a palace coup. Top technocrats, generals, spies, oligarchs. They can see the catastrophe unfolding for Russia
But maybe I am giving in to hopecasting, and Putin has total control, and things will indeed get worse. As he promised Macron
WRT Putin and Russia, it is best to assume that everything we see is an act. People have a habit of projecting their own experience of politics and politicians on to this act, but in doing so they are being taken for idiots. Speculating about palace coups is hopeless.
Why on earth is it ‘hopeless’? What a peculiar thing to say. This is politicalbetting.com. We try to forecast political outcomes
A palace coup, removing Putin, is far from impossible. Indeed I’d say it is ONE of the more likely routes out of this incredible mess. Putin is more like a tsar or a sultan than a communist dictator. He has less absolute power than someone like Xi, and he has just committed a fuck up of the first order. He is imperilled
I disagree about it being one of the more likely, but I do think limitations on random PB speculations is indeed a hopeless endeavour. Most of the time the out there speculations are rightly ridiculed, but every now and then they come off, and you wouldn't want to miss that.
"EU unanimously agrees to grant temporary residence to refugees
The EU has agreed to grant temporary residence to Ukrainians fleeing the war, for up to three years.
EU ministers gave the plans the green light at a meeting in Brussels today.
The bloc's triggered a mechanism - that’s never been used before - to allow Ukrainian nationals and their families the right to work, education and welfare.
The EU says that those who held long-term residence or refugee status in Ukraine would also be covered - either by the directive or national rules. And that temporary workers or students, who aren't eligible, would be helped to get home."
Now let's see if 'world-leading Britain' copies that.
I am pleased to see such a humanitarian response.
Perhaps it will encourage a shift in opinion on refugees and asylum. It is a marked contrast to the sink 'em or deport them to Rwanda approach we take to duskier refugees.
Each situation is unique.
Ukraine has been willing to fight whereas in Afghanistan opposition to the Taliban was somewhat lacking.
In both cases though the refugees are those fleeing fighting, not fighting battles. In 2015 it were Syrians as refugees that caused such consternation, and they were fighting.
Perhaps though it is that we are happier with refugees that we feel European kinship towards. Britain is perhaps realising that we Europeans share common cultures and dreams.
We've provided a lot of funding towards looking after refugees in Syria. Unlike some other countries...
Sure, but not promises of visa waivers for 3 years, even for those syrians/afghans with relatives.
Personally I don't have a problem with accepting Ukranian, and dissenter Russian refugees. It is however a big shift in refugee policy from "sink 'em in the channel" "prosecute those who help refugees enter" and a very welcome awakening to our responsibilities to the victims of war.
Perhaps if more was done about the channel, then we'd be willing to do more about genuine refugees.
Though most asylum seekers do get accepted, thereby are legitimate refugees. Ukranians too have to pass through several safe countries to get here.
I do hope the Russo-Ukranian War does lead to a more enlightened approach to refugees.
No doubt the Ukrainians will be getting in the boats to cross the channel.
Or not.
The point is that they do not need to, at least at present. They have legal means to travel here, not availible to other refugees.
"EU unanimously agrees to grant temporary residence to refugees
The EU has agreed to grant temporary residence to Ukrainians fleeing the war, for up to three years.
EU ministers gave the plans the green light at a meeting in Brussels today.
The bloc's triggered a mechanism - that’s never been used before - to allow Ukrainian nationals and their families the right to work, education and welfare.
The EU says that those who held long-term residence or refugee status in Ukraine would also be covered - either by the directive or national rules. And that temporary workers or students, who aren't eligible, would be helped to get home."
Now let's see if 'world-leading Britain' copies that.
I am pleased to see such a humanitarian response.
Perhaps it will encourage a shift in opinion on refugees and asylum. It is a marked contrast to the sink 'em or deport them to Rwanda approach we take to duskier refugees.
Each situation is unique.
Ukraine has been willing to fight whereas in Afghanistan opposition to the Taliban was somewhat lacking.
In both cases though the refugees are those fleeing fighting, not fighting battles. In 2015 it were Syrians as refugees that caused such consternation, and they were fighting.
Perhaps though it is that we are happier with refugees that we feel European kinship towards. Britain is perhaps realising that we Europeans share common cultures and dreams.
We've provided a lot of funding towards looking after refugees in Syria. Unlike some other countries...
Sure, but not promises of visa waivers for 3 years, even for those syrians/afghans with relatives.
Personally I don't have a problem with accepting Ukranian, and dissenter Russian refugees. It is however a big shift in refugee policy from "sink 'em in the channel" "prosecute those who help refugees enter" and a very welcome awakening to our responsibilities to the victims of war.
You forget it was the British Government that proposed we should go directly into the camps around Syria and lift out those most in need. It was the German government who decided to just have a policy of anyone who can survive the dangerous journey is welcome but the those who drown are just unlucky. And yes that sounds harsh but that was effectively exactly what Merkel was proposing and that is why she still has blood on her hands.
Yes, though very few Syrians did come by that route.
I appreciate that there is a lot of cognitive dissonance around our approach to Ukranian refugees compared to other refugees. It is an uncomfortable thing to reflect upon, but clearly there is a lot more sympathy with one's of East European origin compared to the Middle East and Africa.
Until 1967 the refugee convention only applied to Europeans, being drafted in the post war and cold War period.
It is interesting. And I speak as one who is happy to see lots of them come from where-ever they originated. But I do wonder at the drivers behind perceptions into this. So for example whilst Middle Eastern and African refugees are apparently not welcome, Chinese from Hong Kong are, as were Indians from Uganda. I wonder if anyone has really looked at the reasoning behind this.
"EU unanimously agrees to grant temporary residence to refugees
The EU has agreed to grant temporary residence to Ukrainians fleeing the war, for up to three years.
EU ministers gave the plans the green light at a meeting in Brussels today.
The bloc's triggered a mechanism - that’s never been used before - to allow Ukrainian nationals and their families the right to work, education and welfare.
The EU says that those who held long-term residence or refugee status in Ukraine would also be covered - either by the directive or national rules. And that temporary workers or students, who aren't eligible, would be helped to get home."
Now let's see if 'world-leading Britain' copies that.
I am pleased to see such a humanitarian response.
Perhaps it will encourage a shift in opinion on refugees and asylum. It is a marked contrast to the sink 'em or deport them to Rwanda approach we take to duskier refugees.
Each situation is unique.
Ukraine has been willing to fight whereas in Afghanistan opposition to the Taliban was somewhat lacking.
In both cases though the refugees are those fleeing fighting, not fighting battles. In 2015 it were Syrians as refugees that caused such consternation, and they were fighting.
Perhaps though it is that we are happier with refugees that we feel European kinship towards. Britain is perhaps realising that we Europeans share common cultures and dreams.
We've provided a lot of funding towards looking after refugees in Syria. Unlike some other countries...
Sure, but not promises of visa waivers for 3 years, even for those syrians/afghans with relatives.
Personally I don't have a problem with accepting Ukranian, and dissenter Russian refugees. It is however a big shift in refugee policy from "sink 'em in the channel" "prosecute those who help refugees enter" and a very welcome awakening to our responsibilities to the victims of war.
You forget it was the British Government that proposed we should go directly into the camps around Syria and lift out those most in need. It was the German government who decided to just have a policy of anyone who can survive the dangerous journey is welcome but the those who drown are just unlucky. And yes that sounds harsh but that was effectively exactly what Merkel was proposing and that is why she still has blood on her hands.
Yes, though very few Syrians did come by that route.
I appreciate that there is a lot of cognitive dissonance around our approach to Ukranian refugees compared to other refugees. It is an uncomfortable thing to reflect upon, but clearly there is a lot more sympathy with one's of East European origin compared to the Middle East and Africa.
Until 1967 the refugee convention only applied to Europeans, being drafted in the post war and cold War period.
Well, there is the uncomfortable but unavoidable fact that Ukrainian refugees are never going to become radicalised, and turn on us, and blow us all to bits by way of thanks for our help and hospitality
It’s only human nature to welcome them a bit more warmly, even if that is very unfair on the vast majority of blah blah blah
Still, not to worry, the Third Horseman approaches. Famine
⚡️Economist says Russian invasion could lead to largest wheat shortage in history.
The invasion will cause a massive supply shock and nothing can be done in the short term to prevent it, according to @ScottIrwinUI, as quoted by Bloomberg.’
Have you ever gone three months without predicting the end of the world? Perhaps you could found Apocalypse Anonymous.
I looked up the weirdest addictions and predicting disasters is not in the list. Addiction to the Argentine Tango struck me as a bit weird but is apparently real.
This affliction however does explain a few things:
- Visit all the countries in the world (before they disappear)
- Consume alcohol and drugs (to take your mind off of it or conversely imagine new disasters)
Do they use Diego Simeone instead of Ray Wilkins to advertise Tango over there?
I feel like, military preparedness aside, Putin also failed to shore up his economic defences. He’s also failed to prepare his population.
A Russia subsidised by China could ride this out, with some dislocation, and with the support of a properly propagandised population.
He’s really fucked this.
Not sure what would have been the way to prepare his population for the backlash (especially whilst pretending he had no wish to invade, but thank goodness he was ready for it), and I imagine rallying round the flag will occur to some effect, but it does feel like he could have said or done 'something'. Warning them that the evil West would retaliate and it would lead to some disruption, but he had plans to counter, we mustn't bow to pressure kind of thing.
Comments
You can't be too careful in my end of the Midlands.
https://twitter.com/oliverdarcy/status/1499479196778709019
See the long table pictures?
Big guy in doorway to left?
Always a TV crew, is there a bodygaurd there?
He isolates for his survival
US-Russia hotline set up to prevent 'military incidents' - reports
The Pentagon has set up a new hotline with Russia's ministry of defence to prevent "miscalculation, military incidents and escalation", a US official has told the news agency Reuters.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, the US source said a "de-confliction line" was established on 1 March.
The US military has created hotlines with Russia in the past, including during the war in Syria.
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1499474258283614213
Polish Ambassador Bartosz Cichocki sat in a 2nd-floor room lined with large windows, wearing a soccer jersey and sipping a glass scotch, full of bravado, and shrugging off the missile explosions that reverberated through the Ukrainian capital.
It may be bollocks of course. Perhaps he confidently strides the Kremlin? But he can’t be that confident, he will know assassination is a real threat
"a person or group of people employed to escort and protect an important or famous person."
Labour has called on the Tories to return money from donors with links to Russiain response to tensions over Vladimir Putin’s military buildup on the Ukrainian border.
In a joint letter, David Lammy, the shadow foreign secretary, and Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, called on ministers to address Russian finance flowing into the UK.
Writing to their counterparts, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, both possible contenders to succeed Boris Johnson in No 10, Lammy and Reeves said: “Donors who have made money from Russia or have alleged links to the Putin regime have given £1.93m to either the Conservative party or individual Conservative associations since Boris Johnson took power in July 2019. Will the Conservative party agree to return it?”
Wow 1.93m in three years that's about 700k per year or about 2k per Conservative MP.
Can I ask Conservative members here if they're not embarrassed that their party can be bought for such trivial amounts of money ?
Are Conservative politicians so addicted to unearned money that they're willing to damage themselves so much for so little ?
Its the political funding equivalent of a beggar looking for fag ends in the gutter.
Johnson is now “unlikely” to deploy the safeguard mechanism this side of the ballot
1/3
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/03/03/brexit-back-burner-ukraine-war-hits-boris-johnsons-ability-trigger/
They are willing to suffer a lot, but when desperate enough, brave enough.
Is it safer to stick with him, or to remove him?
If they conclude the latter, Putin will be removed swiftly and efficiently, like Beria. Russians are very good at coups d'etat. These are usually almost bloodless, at the point of flagrante delicto, even if executions follow afterwards.
Those 'Poland: First To Fight' T-shirts were pretty popular a few years back:
https://www.redbubble.com/i/t-shirt/Poland-First-to-Fight-by-IKET/34071249.FB110
https://www.redbubble.com/i/t-shirt/WWII-Poland-First-to-Fight-by-historicimage/31980559.NL9AC
The update also described the morale of the Belarusian soldiers from the 38th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade as “extremely low”, noting: “The officers and soldiers do not want to play the role of Russian mercenaries.” 2/
https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1499490803101667341
Perhaps it will encourage a shift in opinion on refugees and asylum. It is a marked contrast to the sink 'em or deport them to Rwanda approach we take to duskier refugees.
Ukraine has been willing to fight whereas in Afghanistan opposition to the Taliban was somewhat lacking.
Alexander Somto Orah, 25, was among thousands of people crowding a Kyiv train station Friday, hoping to flee Ukraine amid the Russian invasion. He said he and his friends hoped to get to safety at the Polish border quickly but that officials wouldn’t allow the group of Africans to board trains out of the region.
“I was like, ‘You are picking only white people!’” Orah said. He said he and his friends briefly made it onto a second train headed to Poland but were quickly kicked off, with officials telling them “Ukrainians only.”
Mind you, those men will be lucky to get out of Ukraine. Zelensky wants them to stay and fight.
He's an absolute monarch who is quite happy to let his army and his civil population alike suffer terribly to achieve what he wants. Inflicting years of indiscriminate butchery on the Ukrainian population - until everyone who won't accept absorption by Russia is either dead or in exile - won't faze the man at all. Nor will turning Russia into a vast new North Korea. Life under the Kim dynasty is, after all, vastly worse even than life under Putin, yet they've been in power since the late 1940s.
Basically if he's as cruel and merciless as Stalin (compared with whose reign of terror the late-period Soviet Union looks positively herbivorous,) then he can do almost whatever he wants. So long as the man shows a sufficient regard for the survival of Russia and his own self-preservation not to attempt a direct military engagement with NATO then he can do what he likes to both Ukraine and Belarus - which, whilst he would also doubtless like to recapture the Baltic States, are much larger and more critical to his project.
Feel like it would be a big hit right now.
1905 Revelation was in the wake of the frailer in the Russia-Japan war - which did not go well for the Russians.
1917 Revelation Was in the middle of the frailer in WW1 which did not going well for the Russians.
1991 Revelation was in the wake of the frailer in their Afghan war- which did not go well for the Russians.
Anybody spot a them here?
However, the Hertfordshire town has been interpreted as many different spellings over the years, including 'Boram Woode', 'Borramwode' and 'Barham Wood'.
It is now socially accepted that the town is called Borehamwood, as is regularly seen on street signs.
This may have started with the renaming of Elstree station to Elstree & Borehamwood in 1953.
There has never been an official decision to name the town 'Borehamwood', but Elstree Council became Elstree and Borehamwood council in 1982 and the one-word name has stuck.
Perhaps though it is that we are happier with refugees that we feel European kinship towards. Britain is perhaps realising that we Europeans share common cultures and dreams.
The only problem is that still doesn't solve Putin's problems. Indeed, it just brings him a host of new ones.
Putin only has cynicism to offer.
Revolutions often turn when internal security forces refuse to fire on protestors, and join them instead.
I think the main lesson from this conflict is that political donations are lousy value for money.
Personally I don't have a problem with accepting Ukranian, and dissenter Russian refugees. It is however a big shift in refugee policy from "sink 'em in the channel" "prosecute those who help refugees enter" and a very welcome awakening to our responsibilities to the victims of war.
There's also the difference that wars in Europe aren't meant to happen whereas they never stop happening in the Middle East in particular and the third world in general.
Quite what will be practical, however ... ?
I´ll write more tomorrow, but situation in Russia is not good and you get the sense that the longer this goes on, the more likely a mutiny is becoming.
A Russia subsidised by China could ride this out, with some dislocation, and with the support of a properly propagandised population.
He’s really fucked this.
Though I am sure that Leicestershire (which I think is your manor) has a tendency towards more dodginess, being further south.
Ahem.
Moreover, the more lawless and degenerate the Russian state becomes, the better a career as an enforcer sounds. You still have secure employment and can extort from the collapsing middle class what's left of its wealth through receipt of bribes, coercion and theft.
I do hope the Russo-Ukranian War does lead to a more enlightened approach to refugees.
A palace coup, removing Putin, is far from impossible. Indeed I’d say it is ONE of the more likely routes out of this incredible mess. Putin is more like a tsar or a sultan than a communist dictator. He has less absolute power than someone like Xi, and he has just committed a fuck up of the first order. He is imperilled
The political risk for the money being received would surely be deemed too high for anyone not addicted to unearned income:
https://youtu.be/HPxHEVA1wds?t=133
Or not.
".they exaggerated their power too much. And Ukraine will fight to the last drop of blood."
This coming from one of of the most peaceful people I know
I appreciate that there is a lot of cognitive dissonance around our approach to Ukranian refugees compared to other refugees. It is an uncomfortable thing to reflect upon, but clearly there is a lot more sympathy with one's of East European origin compared to the Middle East and Africa.
Until 1967 the refugee convention only applied to Europeans, being drafted in the post war and cold War period.
This affliction however does explain a few things:
- Visit all the countries in the world (before they disappear)
- Consume alcohol and drugs (to take your mind off of it or conversely imagine new disasters)
They're resorting to tactics used in countries where they only really had a strategic stake like Syria or Libya, the invasion of Ukraine goes beyond just a small strategic gain of Crimea (which they had anyway), there's an emotional aspect here and as has been reported time and again, loads of Russian soldiers aren't on board with the idea of shooting Ukrainians.
It’s only human nature to welcome them a bit more warmly, even if that is very unfair on the vast majority of blah blah blah