Word has it that Labour are in trouble in Erdington
"Word has it" - could you explain? A couple of comments on Twitter or do you have inside knowledge of the campaigns?
It will be a derisory turnout and you can always get strange results when that happens.
It's been Labour since its re-creation in 1974 but the Conservatives put up strong challenges right up to 1997 - in 1983 Labour won by just 231 and even in 1992 the majority was less than 5,000.
In 1997, the Conservative vote collapsed as it did elsewhere and didn't really revive until 2010 when Dromey first became the MP and his majority was just 3,277.
It's a reach to see a Conservative win - Smarkets are calling 90.09% for Labour and 9.54% for the Conservatives while Paddy Power go 1/40 Labour and 10/1 the Conservatives.
Reports of growing problems in Russia and young men "going to the country" to escape conscription. Russians attempting to get across the Estonian border before Putin declares martial law. The sanctions are bad enough, but the decisions to leave Russia have devastated the middle class.
I´ll write more tomorrow, but situation in Russia is not good and you get the sense that the longer this goes on, the more likely a mutiny is becoming.
"EU unanimously agrees to grant temporary residence to refugees
The EU has agreed to grant temporary residence to Ukrainians fleeing the war, for up to three years.
EU ministers gave the plans the green light at a meeting in Brussels today.
The bloc's triggered a mechanism - that’s never been used before - to allow Ukrainian nationals and their families the right to work, education and welfare.
The EU says that those who held long-term residence or refugee status in Ukraine would also be covered - either by the directive or national rules. And that temporary workers or students, who aren't eligible, would be helped to get home."
Now let's see if 'world-leading Britain' copies that.
I am pleased to see such a humanitarian response.
Perhaps it will encourage a shift in opinion on refugees and asylum. It is a marked contrast to the sink 'em or deport them to Rwanda approach we take to duskier refugees.
Each situation is unique.
Ukraine has been willing to fight whereas in Afghanistan opposition to the Taliban was somewhat lacking.
In both cases though the refugees are those fleeing fighting, not fighting battles. In 2015 it were Syrians as refugees that caused such consternation, and they were fighting.
Perhaps though it is that we are happier with refugees that we feel European kinship towards. Britain is perhaps realising that we Europeans share common cultures and dreams.
We've provided a lot of funding towards looking after refugees in Syria. Unlike some other countries...
Sure, but not promises of visa waivers for 3 years, even for those syrians/afghans with relatives.
Personally I don't have a problem with accepting Ukranian, and dissenter Russian refugees. It is however a big shift in refugee policy from "sink 'em in the channel" "prosecute those who help refugees enter" and a very welcome awakening to our responsibilities to the victims of war.
You forget it was the British Government that proposed we should go directly into the camps around Syria and lift out those most in need. It was the German government who decided to just have a policy of anyone who can survive the dangerous journey is welcome but the those who drown are just unlucky. And yes that sounds harsh but that was effectively exactly what Merkel was proposing and that is why she still has blood on her hands.
Yes, though very few Syrians did come by that route.
I appreciate that there is a lot of cognitive dissonance around our approach to Ukranian refugees compared to other refugees. It is an uncomfortable thing to reflect upon, but clearly there is a lot more sympathy with one's of East European origin compared to the Middle East and Africa.
Until 1967 the refugee convention only applied to Europeans, being drafted in the post war and cold War period.
Well, there is the uncomfortable but unavoidable fact that Ukrainian refugees are never going to become radicalised, and turn on us, and blow us all to bits by way of thanks for our help and hospitality
It’s only human nature to welcome them a bit more warmly, even if that is very unfair on the vast majority of blah blah blah
Well radicalisation was never an issue in the 60s and 70s but for some reason we preferred white Africans to Black and Asian Africans. I wonder if there is a word for that?
Word has it that Labour are in trouble in Erdington
The problem for Labour may be that their strongest areas, in places like Gravelly Hill and Stockland Green, are prone to having extremely low turnouts.
Word has it that Labour are in trouble in Erdington
Seriously?
I assumed that sort of thing had to be said at least once on a by-election day as a matter of tradition. The outcome may not even be constitutionally valid without such a comment beforehand, such is the power of convention.
If it were true and not just wildly out there speculation it would be a great piece of bragging rights on prediction skill.
It used to be that someone had to describe turnout as "brisk".
Simple factual accuracy seems to have done for that tradition.
As ever, this site gets overexcited about the next smoking gun that will take down this PM. The public didn’t believe the Tory Party is in the pockets of Russians before this. It definitely won’t believe it now.
Away from the political impact, let’s get real. None of our political parties are in the pockets of their donors. They all get accused of it, and it’s not true for any of them, other than on the very margins (“he’s a friend I’ll look at his letter first”).
It’s quite the reverse - donors donate to those that they think will further the policies they like. The true attack against the Tories isn’t that there’s any Russian influence (there isn’t) but rather that their general relaxed view of rules, regulations, “red tape”, and taxes is like catnip to assorted gangsters and ne’er-do-wells.
"EU unanimously agrees to grant temporary residence to refugees
The EU has agreed to grant temporary residence to Ukrainians fleeing the war, for up to three years.
EU ministers gave the plans the green light at a meeting in Brussels today.
The bloc's triggered a mechanism - that’s never been used before - to allow Ukrainian nationals and their families the right to work, education and welfare.
The EU says that those who held long-term residence or refugee status in Ukraine would also be covered - either by the directive or national rules. And that temporary workers or students, who aren't eligible, would be helped to get home."
Now let's see if 'world-leading Britain' copies that.
I am pleased to see such a humanitarian response.
Perhaps it will encourage a shift in opinion on refugees and asylum. It is a marked contrast to the sink 'em or deport them to Rwanda approach we take to duskier refugees.
Each situation is unique.
Ukraine has been willing to fight whereas in Afghanistan opposition to the Taliban was somewhat lacking.
In both cases though the refugees are those fleeing fighting, not fighting battles. In 2015 it were Syrians as refugees that caused such consternation, and they were fighting.
Perhaps though it is that we are happier with refugees that we feel European kinship towards. Britain is perhaps realising that we Europeans share common cultures and dreams.
We've provided a lot of funding towards looking after refugees in Syria. Unlike some other countries...
Sure, but not promises of visa waivers for 3 years, even for those syrians/afghans with relatives.
Personally I don't have a problem with accepting Ukranian, and dissenter Russian refugees. It is however a big shift in refugee policy from "sink 'em in the channel" "prosecute those who help refugees enter" and a very welcome awakening to our responsibilities to the victims of war.
You forget it was the British Government that proposed we should go directly into the camps around Syria and lift out those most in need. It was the German government who decided to just have a policy of anyone who can survive the dangerous journey is welcome but the those who drown are just unlucky. And yes that sounds harsh but that was effectively exactly what Merkel was proposing and that is why she still has blood on her hands.
Yes, though very few Syrians did come by that route.
I appreciate that there is a lot of cognitive dissonance around our approach to Ukranian refugees compared to other refugees. It is an uncomfortable thing to reflect upon, but clearly there is a lot more sympathy with one's of East European origin compared to the Middle East and Africa.
Until 1967 the refugee convention only applied to Europeans, being drafted in the post war and cold War period.
It is interesting. And I speak as one who is happy to see lots of them come from where-ever they originated. But I do wonder at the drivers behind perceptions into this. So for example whilst Middle Eastern and African refugees are apparently not welcome, Chinese from Hong Kong are, as were Indians from Uganda. I wonder if anyone has really looked at the reasoning behind this.
How well they are likely to assimilate and what historic/political obligation a country has to them must be big factors.
Plus how much of a fatigue factor is involved - that certainly affects willingness to accept refugees from the Middle East and Africa.
For anyone thinking russia will subdue Ukraine easily. I have a friend in ukraine that lives in Chessarky and was talking to her earlier to check she was ok as hadnt seen her on line for a few days.....to quote her on the subject of the russian invasion
".they exaggerated their power too much. And Ukraine will fight to the last drop of blood."
This coming from one of of the most peaceful people I know
They've screwed the pooch, even if they do conquer the rest in short order. 60% of their army has been revealed to be about as real as those that took part in Operation Fortitude the rest is, at best, in poor condition. They've united the West, and made Germany a major military power again, as well as poisoning a nation of 44m against them, which they don't have the manpower to pacify, in addition to demolishing their economy.
Worryingly a Ukrainian couple I know haven't said anything/appeared for over 48 hours now, despite promising daily updates. The third Ukrainian I know has posted footage of her apartment block as not much more than rubble.
Word has it that Labour are in trouble in Erdington
"Word has it" - could you explain? A couple of comments on Twitter or do you have inside knowledge of the campaigns?
It will be a derisory turnout and you can always get strange results when that happens.
It's been Labour since its re-creation in 1974 but the Conservatives put up strong challenges right up to 1997 - in 1983 Labour won by just 231 and even in 1992 the majority was less than 5,000.
In 1997, the Conservative vote collapsed as it did elsewhere and didn't really revive until 2010 when Dromey first became the MP and his majority was just 3,277.
It's a reach to see a Conservative win - Smarkets are calling 90.09% for Labour and 9.54% for the Conservatives while Paddy Power go 1/40 Labour and 10/1 the Conservatives.
I ignore all such predictions and claims - all the more so when the polls haven't even closed yet.
"EU unanimously agrees to grant temporary residence to refugees
The EU has agreed to grant temporary residence to Ukrainians fleeing the war, for up to three years.
EU ministers gave the plans the green light at a meeting in Brussels today.
The bloc's triggered a mechanism - that’s never been used before - to allow Ukrainian nationals and their families the right to work, education and welfare.
The EU says that those who held long-term residence or refugee status in Ukraine would also be covered - either by the directive or national rules. And that temporary workers or students, who aren't eligible, would be helped to get home."
Now let's see if 'world-leading Britain' copies that.
I am pleased to see such a humanitarian response.
Perhaps it will encourage a shift in opinion on refugees and asylum. It is a marked contrast to the sink 'em or deport them to Rwanda approach we take to duskier refugees.
Each situation is unique.
Ukraine has been willing to fight whereas in Afghanistan opposition to the Taliban was somewhat lacking.
In both cases though the refugees are those fleeing fighting, not fighting battles. In 2015 it were Syrians as refugees that caused such consternation, and they were fighting.
Perhaps though it is that we are happier with refugees that we feel European kinship towards. Britain is perhaps realising that we Europeans share common cultures and dreams.
We've provided a lot of funding towards looking after refugees in Syria. Unlike some other countries...
Sure, but not promises of visa waivers for 3 years, even for those syrians/afghans with relatives.
Personally I don't have a problem with accepting Ukranian, and dissenter Russian refugees. It is however a big shift in refugee policy from "sink 'em in the channel" "prosecute those who help refugees enter" and a very welcome awakening to our responsibilities to the victims of war.
You forget it was the British Government that proposed we should go directly into the camps around Syria and lift out those most in need. It was the German government who decided to just have a policy of anyone who can survive the dangerous journey is welcome but the those who drown are just unlucky. And yes that sounds harsh but that was effectively exactly what Merkel was proposing and that is why she still has blood on her hands.
Yes, though very few Syrians did come by that route.
I appreciate that there is a lot of cognitive dissonance around our approach to Ukranian refugees compared to other refugees. It is an uncomfortable thing to reflect upon, but clearly there is a lot more sympathy with one's of East European origin compared to the Middle East and Africa.
Until 1967 the refugee convention only applied to Europeans, being drafted in the post war and cold War period.
It is interesting. And I speak as one who is happy to see lots of them come from where-ever they originated. But I do wonder at the drivers behind perceptions into this. So for example whilst Middle Eastern and African refugees are apparently not welcome, Chinese from Hong Kong are, as were Indians from Uganda. I wonder if anyone has really looked at the reasoning behind this.
How well they are likely to assimilate and what historic/political obligation a country has to them must be big factors.
Plus how much of a fatigue factor is involved - that certainly affects willingness to accept refugees from the Middle East and Africa.
Also, will they go home if circumstances change? I think that's a big "yes" with Ukrainians.
Ok let's assume the sanctions stay for a period...
In a few weeks Putin says "These sanctions are aimed at destroying Russia, therefore unless they're stopped we will launch a nuclear attack."
How does that play out, I wonder?
Even if the sanctions were dropped is anyone going to trade with Russia for the foreseeable future?
Every time I try to see a way out of this mess, I cannot see a safe one.
With these horrendous economic prognoses, there MUST be people close to Putin, close to power, who realise the Ukraine war is an error of galactic magnitude. They are not stupid. They won’t just be watching Russia Today
Will they move? Do you just stand by as an autocrat destroys your own country? They too will have kids and hopes and dreams for a better Russia, not this squalid disaster
Assassins who fail to kill their target don't usually do so well.
And Putin will have his own, extremely loyal, bodyguard.
I was thinking more of a palace coup. Top technocrats, generals, spies, oligarchs. They can see the catastrophe unfolding for Russia
But maybe I am giving in to hopecasting, and Putin has total control, and things will indeed get worse. As he promised Macron
WRT Putin and Russia, it is best to assume that everything we see is an act. People have a habit of projecting their own experience of politics and politicians on to this act, but in doing so they are being taken for idiots. Speculating about palace coups is hopeless.
Why on earth is it ‘hopeless’? What a peculiar thing to say. This is politicalbetting.com. We try to forecast political outcomes
A palace coup, removing Putin, is far from impossible. Indeed I’d say it is ONE of the more likely routes out of this incredible mess. Putin is more like a tsar or a sultan than a communist dictator. He has less absolute power than someone like Xi, and he has just committed a fuck up of the first order. He is imperilled
I think it is the only way out. He won't back track, hold back on flattening residential areas, accept any settlement other yhan on his terms. He will dig in deeper until he wins or is deposed.
Reports of growing problems in Russia and young men "going to the country" to escape conscription. Russians attempting to get across the Estonian border before Putin declares martial law. The sanctions are bad enough, but the decisions to leave Russia have devastated the middle class.
I´ll write more tomorrow, but situation in Russia is not good and you get the sense that the longer this goes on, the more likely a mutiny is becoming.
Deeply distressing images from an unnamed Ukrainian city. Definitely NSFW. Looks all too horribly authentic
I know others think such things should not be linked, I respect that opinion - but disagree. We need to see. To understand the horror. To feel the outrage. Why should Putin be allowed to hide this stuff away?
Just be watching Konstantin Kisin on triggernometry. He's been watching loads of Russian state TV the last two days and says a lot of the coverage of the war is very religious. The Ukrainian Orthodox Church split from the Russian church a few years ago. The war is a crusade to reunite the Russian people.
It took 57 minutes for Everton to put a goal past Boreham Wood.
Shame. I had a quid on Boreham Wood to win at 30/1
Same price as the Tories.
My bets on the by-election are turnout 20-29%, Lab 40-50% and Con at 40%+. Each for a fiver. I think Labour will win, but in a low turnout, anything can happen with vote shares.
Word has it that Labour are in trouble in Erdington
Seriously?
I assumed that sort of thing had to be said at least once on a by-election day as a matter of tradition. The outcome may not even be constitutionally valid without such a comment beforehand, such is the power of convention.
If it were true and not just wildly out there speculation it would be a great piece of bragging rights on prediction skill.
It used to be that someone had to describe turnout as "brisk".
Simple factual accuracy seems to have done for that tradition.
During Live feed on Russian TV the stock exchange expert drank and cheered to the death of the Russian stock market and said that he would go to work as Santa Claus.
"• Anchor: Aleksandr Butmanov, economist, expert in stock strategies. Alexander hello. • He: Hi, not going to say good day. • Anchor: Yeah, noone says that anymore. Are stock strategies out the window or are you hoping to keep your profession? • He: Worst case Ill work as Santa like I was doing it 25 years ago • Anchor: Thats only once a year. • He: Ok, no jokes. Let me really quick, Im going to say hi to Sergey Yusichenko, who was singing death to stock market 13 years ago. • He: Today I am drinking soda water. "DEAR STOCK MARKET, YOU MEANT A LOT TO US, YOU WERE SO INTERESTING, WE WERE SO CLOSE. REST IN PEACE MY FRIEND" • Anchor: I wont comment this flash-mob. I don't want to believe it."
The Entire staff of the Russian TV channel “the rain” resigned during a live stream with last words: “no war” and then played “swan lake” ballet video (just like they did on all USSR tv channels when it suddenly collapsed)
For anyone thinking russia will subdue Ukraine easily. I have a friend in ukraine that lives in Chessarky and was talking to her earlier to check she was ok as hadnt seen her on line for a few days.....to quote her on the subject of the russian invasion
".they exaggerated their power too much. And Ukraine will fight to the last drop of blood."
This coming from one of of the most peaceful people I know
They've screwed the pooch, even if they do conquer the rest in short order. 60% of their army has been revealed to be about as real as those that took part in Operation Fortitude the rest is, at best, in poor condition. They've united the West, and made Germany a major military power again, as well as poisoning a nation of 44m against them, which they don't have the manpower to pacify, in addition to demolishing their economy.
Worryingly a Ukrainian couple I know haven't said anything/appeared for over 48 hours now, despite promising daily updates. The third Ukrainian I know has posted footage of her apartment block as not much more than rubble.
Sorry to hear about your friend, I hadnt seen this girl on since the 28th so was quite relieved to see her appear online and we chatted a bit about how things were for her. The city she lives in is not as yet directly threatened but she told me the air raid sirens are now going off a few times a day.
Interestingly there also seem to be some what I assume to be false myths being promulgated on the ukraine side. One thing she said to me was this
" Austria and some other countries have sent several planes to help Ukraine...one of these planes is flown by a man nicknamed "The Ghost of Kiev". He has already shot down 19 planes out of 29"
This seems to me at least an improbably large number considering the number of days since he invasion but then if it raises ukranian spirits I wasnt going to knock it.
"EU unanimously agrees to grant temporary residence to refugees
The EU has agreed to grant temporary residence to Ukrainians fleeing the war, for up to three years.
EU ministers gave the plans the green light at a meeting in Brussels today.
The bloc's triggered a mechanism - that’s never been used before - to allow Ukrainian nationals and their families the right to work, education and welfare.
The EU says that those who held long-term residence or refugee status in Ukraine would also be covered - either by the directive or national rules. And that temporary workers or students, who aren't eligible, would be helped to get home."
Now let's see if 'world-leading Britain' copies that.
I am pleased to see such a humanitarian response.
Perhaps it will encourage a shift in opinion on refugees and asylum. It is a marked contrast to the sink 'em or deport them to Rwanda approach we take to duskier refugees.
Each situation is unique.
Ukraine has been willing to fight whereas in Afghanistan opposition to the Taliban was somewhat lacking.
In both cases though the refugees are those fleeing fighting, not fighting battles. In 2015 it were Syrians as refugees that caused such consternation, and they were fighting.
Perhaps though it is that we are happier with refugees that we feel European kinship towards. Britain is perhaps realising that we Europeans share common cultures and dreams.
We've provided a lot of funding towards looking after refugees in Syria. Unlike some other countries...
Sure, but not promises of visa waivers for 3 years, even for those syrians/afghans with relatives.
Personally I don't have a problem with accepting Ukranian, and dissenter Russian refugees. It is however a big shift in refugee policy from "sink 'em in the channel" "prosecute those who help refugees enter" and a very welcome awakening to our responsibilities to the victims of war.
You forget it was the British Government that proposed we should go directly into the camps around Syria and lift out those most in need. It was the German government who decided to just have a policy of anyone who can survive the dangerous journey is welcome but the those who drown are just unlucky. And yes that sounds harsh but that was effectively exactly what Merkel was proposing and that is why she still has blood on her hands.
Yes, though very few Syrians did come by that route.
I appreciate that there is a lot of cognitive dissonance around our approach to Ukranian refugees compared to other refugees. It is an uncomfortable thing to reflect upon, but clearly there is a lot more sympathy with one's of East European origin compared to the Middle East and Africa.
Until 1967 the refugee convention only applied to Europeans, being drafted in the post war and cold War period.
There's a lot going on here, one would suspect. Part of it is Ukraine being a specific situation which elicits an enormous amount of public sympathy. Part of it is that the majority of the British population would regard anyone arriving from Ukraine right now as having a legitimate case for claiming asylum (whereas they suspect, possibly rightly, that a large fraction of the boat people are economic migrants.) Part of it's attributable to the total number of Ukrainian refugees being finite (even if very large,) whereas the number of people who might potentially want to migrate to Europe from poor developing countries in search of a better life might as well be infinite, numbering as it does in the billions. Part of it's probably also down to the fact that the Ukrainian refugees are practically all white and non-Muslim.
Nonetheless, the Government continues to foot-drag on the matter, ostensibly over security concerns though more likely, I imagine, because the portion of the population not wanting to admit Ukrainian refugees without question may be a minority, but one within which its own elderly core vote is over-represented. There's also the matter of whether the majority will change its mind if the number of arrivals ends up numbering in the hundreds of thousands, and whether the Government is at all capable (bearing in mind the woeful precedent of the evacuated Afghans) of looking after them properly - both of which issues could precipitate awful PR disasters.
Deeply distressing images from an unnamed Ukrainian city. Definitely NSFW. Looks all too horribly authentic
I know others think such things should not be linked, I respect that opinion - but disagree. We need to see. To understand the horror. To feel the outrage. Why should Putin be allowed to hide this stuff away?
Ok let's assume the sanctions stay for a period...
In a few weeks Putin says "These sanctions are aimed at destroying Russia, therefore unless they're stopped we will launch a nuclear attack."
How does that play out, I wonder?
Even if the sanctions were dropped is anyone going to trade with Russia for the foreseeable future?
Every time I try to see a way out of this mess, I cannot see a safe one.
With these horrendous economic prognoses, there MUST be people close to Putin, close to power, who realise the Ukraine war is an error of galactic magnitude. They are not stupid. They won’t just be watching Russia Today
Will they move? Do you just stand by as an autocrat destroys your own country? They too will have kids and hopes and dreams for a better Russia, not this squalid disaster
Assassins who fail to kill their target don't usually do so well.
And Putin will have his own, extremely loyal, bodyguard.
I was thinking more of a palace coup. Top technocrats, generals, spies, oligarchs. They can see the catastrophe unfolding for Russia
But maybe I am giving in to hopecasting, and Putin has total control, and things will indeed get worse. As he promised Macron
WRT Putin and Russia, it is best to assume that everything we see is an act. People have a habit of projecting their own experience of politics and politicians on to this act, but in doing so they are being taken for idiots. Speculating about palace coups is hopeless.
Why on earth is it ‘hopeless’? What a peculiar thing to say. This is politicalbetting.com. We try to forecast political outcomes
A palace coup, removing Putin, is far from impossible. Indeed I’d say it is ONE of the more likely routes out of this incredible mess. Putin is more like a tsar or a sultan than a communist dictator. He has less absolute power than someone like Xi, and he has just committed a fuck up of the first order. He is imperilled
Of course it is possible. But I am saying that we won't know anything about what is going on. It is a totally closed off world that we know nothing about. You are saying that 'he' has committed a fuck up - I've got no idea how much it was even his decision. There was a weird performance of an interview with his advisors and weird speeches laying claim to half of Eastern Europe- I don't know if any of that was remotely sincere or reflective of his views, or if it was part of a strategy to just confuse us. Basically we are dealing with a rogue state run by a malign, super intelligent and highly secretive oligarchy who continuously outwit us.
My point is there are things that we can meaningfully try and analyse: how the war is going, the western response, evidence of domestic unrest in Russia etc... but trying to guess what is going on in the Kremlin is futile. If a coup is going to happen we will know nothing of why it has happened.
Another peculiar comment, full of non sequiturs
But I’ll restrict myself to one: the evidence for Russia’s leadership being ‘super intelligent’ is striking by its absence, right now
"EU unanimously agrees to grant temporary residence to refugees
The EU has agreed to grant temporary residence to Ukrainians fleeing the war, for up to three years.
EU ministers gave the plans the green light at a meeting in Brussels today.
The bloc's triggered a mechanism - that’s never been used before - to allow Ukrainian nationals and their families the right to work, education and welfare.
The EU says that those who held long-term residence or refugee status in Ukraine would also be covered - either by the directive or national rules. And that temporary workers or students, who aren't eligible, would be helped to get home."
Now let's see if 'world-leading Britain' copies that.
I am pleased to see such a humanitarian response.
Perhaps it will encourage a shift in opinion on refugees and asylum. It is a marked contrast to the sink 'em or deport them to Rwanda approach we take to duskier refugees.
Each situation is unique.
Ukraine has been willing to fight whereas in Afghanistan opposition to the Taliban was somewhat lacking.
In both cases though the refugees are those fleeing fighting, not fighting battles. In 2015 it were Syrians as refugees that caused such consternation, and they were fighting.
Perhaps though it is that we are happier with refugees that we feel European kinship towards. Britain is perhaps realising that we Europeans share common cultures and dreams.
We've provided a lot of funding towards looking after refugees in Syria. Unlike some other countries...
Sure, but not promises of visa waivers for 3 years, even for those syrians/afghans with relatives.
Personally I don't have a problem with accepting Ukranian, and dissenter Russian refugees. It is however a big shift in refugee policy from "sink 'em in the channel" "prosecute those who help refugees enter" and a very welcome awakening to our responsibilities to the victims of war.
You forget it was the British Government that proposed we should go directly into the camps around Syria and lift out those most in need. It was the German government who decided to just have a policy of anyone who can survive the dangerous journey is welcome but the those who drown are just unlucky. And yes that sounds harsh but that was effectively exactly what Merkel was proposing and that is why she still has blood on her hands.
Yes, though very few Syrians did come by that route.
I appreciate that there is a lot of cognitive dissonance around our approach to Ukranian refugees compared to other refugees. It is an uncomfortable thing to reflect upon, but clearly there is a lot more sympathy with one's of East European origin compared to the Middle East and Africa.
Until 1967 the refugee convention only applied to Europeans, being drafted in the post war and cold War period.
Well, there is the uncomfortable but unavoidable fact that Ukrainian refugees are never going to become radicalised, and turn on us, and blow us all to bits by way of thanks for our help and hospitality
It’s only human nature to welcome them a bit more warmly, even if that is very unfair on the vast majority of blah blah blah
Well radicalisation was never an issue in the 60s and 70s but for some reason we preferred white Africans to Black and Asian Africans. I wonder if there is a word for that?
There is a lot of discussion on social media about how our embrace of the Ukrainian cause is evidence of racism, because we were never as bothered about other wars going on elsewhere in the world. I think there is some merit in this view, but there are other more important factors like the war is physically much closer to us, and this war affects peace and stability on the European Continent in the way that wars in the middle east do not.
Deeply distressing images from an unnamed Ukrainian city. Definitely NSFW. Looks all too horribly authentic
I know others think such things should not be linked, I respect that opinion - but disagree. We need to see. To understand the horror. To feel the outrage. Why should Putin be allowed to hide this stuff away?
Ok let's assume the sanctions stay for a period...
In a few weeks Putin says "These sanctions are aimed at destroying Russia, therefore unless they're stopped we will launch a nuclear attack."
How does that play out, I wonder?
Even if the sanctions were dropped is anyone going to trade with Russia for the foreseeable future?
Every time I try to see a way out of this mess, I cannot see a safe one.
With these horrendous economic prognoses, there MUST be people close to Putin, close to power, who realise the Ukraine war is an error of galactic magnitude. They are not stupid. They won’t just be watching Russia Today
Will they move? Do you just stand by as an autocrat destroys your own country? They too will have kids and hopes and dreams for a better Russia, not this squalid disaster
Assassins who fail to kill their target don't usually do so well.
And Putin will have his own, extremely loyal, bodyguard.
I was thinking more of a palace coup. Top technocrats, generals, spies, oligarchs. They can see the catastrophe unfolding for Russia
But maybe I am giving in to hopecasting, and Putin has total control, and things will indeed get worse. As he promised Macron
WRT Putin and Russia, it is best to assume that everything we see is an act. People have a habit of projecting their own experience of politics and politicians on to this act, but in doing so they are being taken for idiots. Speculating about palace coups is hopeless.
Why on earth is it ‘hopeless’? What a peculiar thing to say. This is politicalbetting.com. We try to forecast political outcomes
A palace coup, removing Putin, is far from impossible. Indeed I’d say it is ONE of the more likely routes out of this incredible mess. Putin is more like a tsar or a sultan than a communist dictator. He has less absolute power than someone like Xi, and he has just committed a fuck up of the first order. He is imperilled
I disagree about it being one of the more likely, but I do think limitations on random PB speculations is indeed a hopeless endeavour. Most of the time the out there speculations are rightly ridiculed, but every now and then they come off, and you wouldn't want to miss that.
You mean that Putin is from an alien covid carrying bat/pangolin species who only reveals himself in his true form to people by themselves with dodgy cameras and a history of alcoholism.
Ok let's assume the sanctions stay for a period...
In a few weeks Putin says "These sanctions are aimed at destroying Russia, therefore unless they're stopped we will launch a nuclear attack."
How does that play out, I wonder?
Even if the sanctions were dropped is anyone going to trade with Russia for the foreseeable future?
Every time I try to see a way out of this mess, I cannot see a safe one.
With these horrendous economic prognoses, there MUST be people close to Putin, close to power, who realise the Ukraine war is an error of galactic magnitude. They are not stupid. They won’t just be watching Russia Today
Will they move? Do you just stand by as an autocrat destroys your own country? They too will have kids and hopes and dreams for a better Russia, not this squalid disaster
Assassins who fail to kill their target don't usually do so well.
And Putin will have his own, extremely loyal, bodyguard.
I was thinking more of a palace coup. Top technocrats, generals, spies, oligarchs. They can see the catastrophe unfolding for Russia
But maybe I am giving in to hopecasting, and Putin has total control, and things will indeed get worse. As he promised Macron
WRT Putin and Russia, it is best to assume that everything we see is an act. People have a habit of projecting their own experience of politics and politicians on to this act, but in doing so they are being taken for idiots. Speculating about palace coups is hopeless.
Why on earth is it ‘hopeless’? What a peculiar thing to say. This is politicalbetting.com. We try to forecast political outcomes
A palace coup, removing Putin, is far from impossible. Indeed I’d say it is ONE of the more likely routes out of this incredible mess. Putin is more like a tsar or a sultan than a communist dictator. He has less absolute power than someone like Xi, and he has just committed a fuck up of the first order. He is imperilled
I disagree about it being one of the more likely, but I do think limitations on random PB speculations is indeed a hopeless endeavour. Most of the time the out there speculations are rightly ridiculed, but every now and then they come off, and you wouldn't want to miss that.
You mean that Putin is from an alien covid carrying bat/pangolin species who only reveals himself in his true form to people by themselves with dodgy cameras and a history of alcoholism.
‘ Putin is from an alien covid carrying bat/pangolin species ‘
"EU unanimously agrees to grant temporary residence to refugees
The EU has agreed to grant temporary residence to Ukrainians fleeing the war, for up to three years.
EU ministers gave the plans the green light at a meeting in Brussels today.
The bloc's triggered a mechanism - that’s never been used before - to allow Ukrainian nationals and their families the right to work, education and welfare.
The EU says that those who held long-term residence or refugee status in Ukraine would also be covered - either by the directive or national rules. And that temporary workers or students, who aren't eligible, would be helped to get home."
Now let's see if 'world-leading Britain' copies that.
I am pleased to see such a humanitarian response.
Perhaps it will encourage a shift in opinion on refugees and asylum. It is a marked contrast to the sink 'em or deport them to Rwanda approach we take to duskier refugees.
Each situation is unique.
Ukraine has been willing to fight whereas in Afghanistan opposition to the Taliban was somewhat lacking.
In both cases though the refugees are those fleeing fighting, not fighting battles. In 2015 it were Syrians as refugees that caused such consternation, and they were fighting.
Perhaps though it is that we are happier with refugees that we feel European kinship towards. Britain is perhaps realising that we Europeans share common cultures and dreams.
We've provided a lot of funding towards looking after refugees in Syria. Unlike some other countries...
Sure, but not promises of visa waivers for 3 years, even for those syrians/afghans with relatives.
Personally I don't have a problem with accepting Ukranian, and dissenter Russian refugees. It is however a big shift in refugee policy from "sink 'em in the channel" "prosecute those who help refugees enter" and a very welcome awakening to our responsibilities to the victims of war.
You forget it was the British Government that proposed we should go directly into the camps around Syria and lift out those most in need. It was the German government who decided to just have a policy of anyone who can survive the dangerous journey is welcome but the those who drown are just unlucky. And yes that sounds harsh but that was effectively exactly what Merkel was proposing and that is why she still has blood on her hands.
Yes, though very few Syrians did come by that route.
I appreciate that there is a lot of cognitive dissonance around our approach to Ukranian refugees compared to other refugees. It is an uncomfortable thing to reflect upon, but clearly there is a lot more sympathy with one's of East European origin compared to the Middle East and Africa.
Until 1967 the refugee convention only applied to Europeans, being drafted in the post war and cold War period.
Well, there is the uncomfortable but unavoidable fact that Ukrainian refugees are never going to become radicalised, and turn on us, and blow us all to bits by way of thanks for our help and hospitality
It’s only human nature to welcome them a bit more warmly, even if that is very unfair on the vast majority of blah blah blah
Well radicalisation was never an issue in the 60s and 70s but for some reason we preferred white Africans to Black and Asian Africans. I wonder if there is a word for that?
There is a lot of discussion on social media about how our embrace of the Ukrainian cause is evidence of racism, because we were never as bothered about other wars going on elsewhere in the world. I think there is some merit in this view, but there are other more important factors like the war is physically much closer to us, and this war affects peace and stability on the European Continent in the way that wars in the middle east do not.
I agree. I was just pointing out that suggesting it was due to our fear of radicalisation is nonsense. We had a clear dislike of immigration of those of Pakistan origin in the 60s and 70s and radicalisation then was never an issue. Being brown however was.
Went to lidl and my local wholefood store earlier this evening.
Me and one other person wearing a mask in both places.
The lass on till said she had seen almost no one all day wearing one.
One over your mouth/nose presumably, but where on earth was the other one?
LOL. Protecting my wallet from snatchers.
You can't be too careful in my end of the Midlands.
As a Midlander, I have only ever been robbed in London.
No, I'm afraid that is just how much pubs charge for pints.
It’s true. It takes about a month, and about eighteen pubs listening to what they charge Londoners to realise they are all in on it, that’s really what they think the price is. But if you buy a pint in Scarborough it’s a fraction of the cost. So unless they are giving beer away at incredible loss up North, or, in London they are 🤬
I thought there was a way that the judiciary stops parliament from doing certain things. Eg a law is passed whereby girls no longer go to school. Is there no 'higher' protection against that?
Not really. We'd need to vote out the government that did it and have the next one repeal it. Of course there's never going to be a majority for anything as stupid as that in the UK. The point being made is that any legislation which names individuals for asset seizures or comes up with some baloney about arbitrary conditions for such would be a poor way to do it as all of us suddenly become less well protected by the law.
I see. Are you sure? I thought we were signed up to some fundamental human rights that have force over and above an act of parliament. Maybe I'm substituting what I think should be true for what is. Wouldn't be the first time.
The first line would have to repeal the Human Rights Act but we could do it now outside the EU. The courts can take a view on whether law is compatible with other laws (hence the human rights Act) and whether the Government has followed the process it laid out, but they can’t strike down laws.
Ah so maybe I at long last spot a benefit of Brexit. It's now that little bit easier for the government to enact things which violate fundamental human rights.
Is your faith in the UK so weak that you need that comfort blanket?
I think it's good to have some fundamental things that must be respected regardless of what any particular UK government of the moment decides it wants to do. That we did and now don't - if such is the case - is imo a regression.
It shows your lack of confidence in democracy, IMO, that you would take that lever away from the people and hand it to faceless technocrats.
It would be easier to have faith in democracy if Western countries had not been electing increasingly authoritarian and kleptocratic governments over the last two decades. We are also facing massive technological change that may be particularly useful for authoritarian regimes to track and control individuals. Fears are well founded, and those who dismiss them are being naive.
But who's to say that the faceless technocrat won't also do the same, at least with politicians we can vote them out.
Dividing power between different branches of government reduces the power of the executive. An all powerful parliament, led by an executive that is not checked by its MPs is not a good system in the long run.
But it is checked by voters, in you're scenario what's to stop the technocrats from doing all of these unnamed awful things and how do the people remove their hands from the levers of power?
AIUI there is nothing to stop a parliament saying the next election is 50 years away, or that we are replacing constituencies with voting 1 representative per council, so it is not properly checked by voters without a written constitution or some enduring bill of rights that is hard for a parliament to remove.
The courts, or as you prefer to call them for some reason, autocrats, are not able to do take power as they have different and separate powers to the executive and legislature.
But I'm not talking about the courts? I'm talking about the idea of having some technocrats sitting above the sovereignty of parliament meaning that the government is unable to make some decisions.
Again, I trust the British people to be responsible and vote out any government which tries to restrict our rights. I trust our democracy to not need a technocrat class that can ignore voters.
Who do you think enforces the Human Rights Act?
You've completed missed the context of the conversation in that case. Kinabalu would like a layer of technocrats that sit above parliamentary sovereignty to ensure that the government is unable to repeal the HRA or other laws he deems as more important than the democratic will of the voters. I disagree with his premise and as I said, I think it shows a lack of confidence in democracy on his part.
No, sorry if I wasn't clear, I mean a court where you can challenge the government on the grounds they have enacted something which is in violation of a fundamental human right. Such rights being defined somewhere at a level higher than nation state.
"EU unanimously agrees to grant temporary residence to refugees
The EU has agreed to grant temporary residence to Ukrainians fleeing the war, for up to three years.
EU ministers gave the plans the green light at a meeting in Brussels today.
The bloc's triggered a mechanism - that’s never been used before - to allow Ukrainian nationals and their families the right to work, education and welfare.
The EU says that those who held long-term residence or refugee status in Ukraine would also be covered - either by the directive or national rules. And that temporary workers or students, who aren't eligible, would be helped to get home."
Now let's see if 'world-leading Britain' copies that.
I am pleased to see such a humanitarian response.
Perhaps it will encourage a shift in opinion on refugees and asylum. It is a marked contrast to the sink 'em or deport them to Rwanda approach we take to duskier refugees.
Each situation is unique.
Ukraine has been willing to fight whereas in Afghanistan opposition to the Taliban was somewhat lacking.
In both cases though the refugees are those fleeing fighting, not fighting battles. In 2015 it were Syrians as refugees that caused such consternation, and they were fighting.
Perhaps though it is that we are happier with refugees that we feel European kinship towards. Britain is perhaps realising that we Europeans share common cultures and dreams.
We've provided a lot of funding towards looking after refugees in Syria. Unlike some other countries...
Sure, but not promises of visa waivers for 3 years, even for those syrians/afghans with relatives.
Personally I don't have a problem with accepting Ukranian, and dissenter Russian refugees. It is however a big shift in refugee policy from "sink 'em in the channel" "prosecute those who help refugees enter" and a very welcome awakening to our responsibilities to the victims of war.
You forget it was the British Government that proposed we should go directly into the camps around Syria and lift out those most in need. It was the German government who decided to just have a policy of anyone who can survive the dangerous journey is welcome but the those who drown are just unlucky. And yes that sounds harsh but that was effectively exactly what Merkel was proposing and that is why she still has blood on her hands.
Yes, though very few Syrians did come by that route.
I appreciate that there is a lot of cognitive dissonance around our approach to Ukranian refugees compared to other refugees. It is an uncomfortable thing to reflect upon, but clearly there is a lot more sympathy with one's of East European origin compared to the Middle East and Africa.
Until 1967 the refugee convention only applied to Europeans, being drafted in the post war and cold War period.
Well, there is the uncomfortable but unavoidable fact that Ukrainian refugees are never going to become radicalised, and turn on us, and blow us all to bits by way of thanks for our help and hospitality
It’s only human nature to welcome them a bit more warmly, even if that is very unfair on the vast majority of blah blah blah
Well radicalisation was never an issue in the 60s and 70s but for some reason we preferred white Africans to Black and Asian Africans. I wonder if there is a word for that?
There is a lot of discussion on social media about how our embrace of the Ukrainian cause is evidence of racism, because we were never as bothered about other wars going on elsewhere in the world. I think there is some merit in this view, but there are other more important factors like the war is physically much closer to us, and this war affects peace and stability on the European Continent in the way that wars in the middle east do not.
I agree. I was just pointing out that suggesting it was due to our fear of radicalisation is nonsense. We had a clear dislike of immigration of those of Pakistan origin in the 60s and 70s and radicalisation then was never an issue. Being brown however was.
Ok let's assume the sanctions stay for a period...
In a few weeks Putin says "These sanctions are aimed at destroying Russia, therefore unless they're stopped we will launch a nuclear attack."
How does that play out, I wonder?
Even if the sanctions were dropped is anyone going to trade with Russia for the foreseeable future?
Every time I try to see a way out of this mess, I cannot see a safe one.
With these horrendous economic prognoses, there MUST be people close to Putin, close to power, who realise the Ukraine war is an error of galactic magnitude. They are not stupid. They won’t just be watching Russia Today
Will they move? Do you just stand by as an autocrat destroys your own country? They too will have kids and hopes and dreams for a better Russia, not this squalid disaster
Assassins who fail to kill their target don't usually do so well.
And Putin will have his own, extremely loyal, bodyguard.
I was thinking more of a palace coup. Top technocrats, generals, spies, oligarchs. They can see the catastrophe unfolding for Russia
But maybe I am giving in to hopecasting, and Putin has total control, and things will indeed get worse. As he promised Macron
WRT Putin and Russia, it is best to assume that everything we see is an act. People have a habit of projecting their own experience of politics and politicians on to this act, but in doing so they are being taken for idiots. Speculating about palace coups is hopeless.
Why on earth is it ‘hopeless’? What a peculiar thing to say. This is politicalbetting.com. We try to forecast political outcomes
A palace coup, removing Putin, is far from impossible. Indeed I’d say it is ONE of the more likely routes out of this incredible mess. Putin is more like a tsar or a sultan than a communist dictator. He has less absolute power than someone like Xi, and he has just committed a fuck up of the first order. He is imperilled
I disagree about it being one of the more likely, but I do think limitations on random PB speculations is indeed a hopeless endeavour. Most of the time the out there speculations are rightly ridiculed, but every now and then they come off, and you wouldn't want to miss that.
You mean that Putin is from an alien covid carrying bat/pangolin species who only reveals himself in his true form to people by themselves with dodgy cameras and a history of alcoholism.
‘ Putin is from an alien covid carrying bat/pangolin species ‘
Ok let's assume the sanctions stay for a period...
In a few weeks Putin says "These sanctions are aimed at destroying Russia, therefore unless they're stopped we will launch a nuclear attack."
How does that play out, I wonder?
Even if the sanctions were dropped is anyone going to trade with Russia for the foreseeable future?
Every time I try to see a way out of this mess, I cannot see a safe one.
With these horrendous economic prognoses, there MUST be people close to Putin, close to power, who realise the Ukraine war is an error of galactic magnitude. They are not stupid. They won’t just be watching Russia Today
Will they move? Do you just stand by as an autocrat destroys your own country? They too will have kids and hopes and dreams for a better Russia, not this squalid disaster
Assassins who fail to kill their target don't usually do so well.
And Putin will have his own, extremely loyal, bodyguard.
I was thinking more of a palace coup. Top technocrats, generals, spies, oligarchs. They can see the catastrophe unfolding for Russia
But maybe I am giving in to hopecasting, and Putin has total control, and things will indeed get worse. As he promised Macron
WRT Putin and Russia, it is best to assume that everything we see is an act. People have a habit of projecting their own experience of politics and politicians on to this act, but in doing so they are being taken for idiots. Speculating about palace coups is hopeless.
Why on earth is it ‘hopeless’? What a peculiar thing to say. This is politicalbetting.com. We try to forecast political outcomes
A palace coup, removing Putin, is far from impossible. Indeed I’d say it is ONE of the more likely routes out of this incredible mess. Putin is more like a tsar or a sultan than a communist dictator. He has less absolute power than someone like Xi, and he has just committed a fuck up of the first order. He is imperilled
I disagree about it being one of the more likely, but I do think limitations on random PB speculations is indeed a hopeless endeavour. Most of the time the out there speculations are rightly ridiculed, but every now and then they come off, and you wouldn't want to miss that.
You mean that Putin is from an alien covid carrying bat/pangolin species who only reveals himself in his true form to people by themselves with dodgy cameras and a history of alcoholism.
‘ Putin is from an alien covid carrying bat/pangolin species ‘
So we have no idea what's happening in the by-election.
Will Putin win as a write-in candidate with 112% of the registered voters voting for him?
Life is looking more and more SeanT* by the moment.
Was it just the other day that we were discussing how the Defence Secretary should be fired/finished his chances for being Prime Minister by suggesting that Putin had gone "Full Tonto"?
I think we could say the consensus now is - "called it".
Putin's response to the logistical collapse of his army is to go for full mobilisation? So, he will end up with a large mob of guys with guns, and little else wandering round Ukraine...
At random I pulled "Hitler's Army: Soldiers, Nazis, and War in the Third Reich" off the shelf. Part of the authors thesis is that why the East Front turned into such a charnel pit of war crimes was, on the German side, combination of propaganda, "primitivisation", collapsing real discipline and a use of terror as discipline.
- The soldiers were totally steeped in Nazi propaganda - to the point that they saw a distorted reality where they were the victims. And the people they were murdering were somehow the cause.
- The collapse of the German Army logistical system led to a broken-backed war of pillage and murder, with units becoming armed gangs raiding the countryside.
- Loses of officers and NCOs caused a collapse in discipline in the traditional sense. Instead the Germany Army resorted to shooting soldiers in huge numbers. To keep them in line.
The result was a slaughter in all directions....
Any of this remind you of anything?
*Sort of like shit, but with a certain whimsical charm. You house is being attached by rabid gibbons on PCP, but they are reading Seven Men & Two Others aloud, while they do so.
Ok let's assume the sanctions stay for a period...
In a few weeks Putin says "These sanctions are aimed at destroying Russia, therefore unless they're stopped we will launch a nuclear attack."
How does that play out, I wonder?
Even if the sanctions were dropped is anyone going to trade with Russia for the foreseeable future?
Every time I try to see a way out of this mess, I cannot see a safe one.
With these horrendous economic prognoses, there MUST be people close to Putin, close to power, who realise the Ukraine war is an error of galactic magnitude. They are not stupid. They won’t just be watching Russia Today
Will they move? Do you just stand by as an autocrat destroys your own country? They too will have kids and hopes and dreams for a better Russia, not this squalid disaster
Assassins who fail to kill their target don't usually do so well.
And Putin will have his own, extremely loyal, bodyguard.
I was thinking more of a palace coup. Top technocrats, generals, spies, oligarchs. They can see the catastrophe unfolding for Russia
But maybe I am giving in to hopecasting, and Putin has total control, and things will indeed get worse. As he promised Macron
WRT Putin and Russia, it is best to assume that everything we see is an act. People have a habit of projecting their own experience of politics and politicians on to this act, but in doing so they are being taken for idiots. Speculating about palace coups is hopeless.
Why on earth is it ‘hopeless’? What a peculiar thing to say. This is politicalbetting.com. We try to forecast political outcomes
A palace coup, removing Putin, is far from impossible. Indeed I’d say it is ONE of the more likely routes out of this incredible mess. Putin is more like a tsar or a sultan than a communist dictator. He has less absolute power than someone like Xi, and he has just committed a fuck up of the first order. He is imperilled
I disagree about it being one of the more likely, but I do think limitations on random PB speculations is indeed a hopeless endeavour. Most of the time the out there speculations are rightly ridiculed, but every now and then they come off, and you wouldn't want to miss that.
You mean that Putin is from an alien covid carrying bat/pangolin species who only reveals himself in his true form to people by themselves with dodgy cameras and a history of alcoholism.
‘ Putin is from an alien covid carrying bat/pangolin species ‘
Comments
It will be a derisory turnout and you can always get strange results when that happens.
It's been Labour since its re-creation in 1974 but the Conservatives put up strong challenges right up to 1997 - in 1983 Labour won by just 231 and even in 1992 the majority was less than 5,000.
In 1997, the Conservative vote collapsed as it did elsewhere and didn't really revive until 2010 when Dromey first became the MP and his majority was just 3,277.
It's a reach to see a Conservative win - Smarkets are calling 90.09% for Labour and 9.54% for the Conservatives while Paddy Power go 1/40 Labour and 10/1 the Conservatives.
One went mad and another jettisoned himself.
https://twitter.com/marceldirsus/status/1499339110502256641
It took the juggernaut that is Salomon Rondon to crack the impenetrable nut.
Simple factual accuracy seems to have done for that tradition.
Away from the political impact, let’s get real. None of our political parties are in the pockets of their donors. They all get accused of it, and it’s not true for any of them, other than on the very margins (“he’s a friend I’ll look at his letter first”).
It’s quite the reverse - donors donate to those that they think will further the policies they like. The true attack against the Tories isn’t that there’s any Russian influence (there isn’t) but rather that their general relaxed view of rules, regulations, “red tape”, and taxes is like catnip to assorted gangsters and ne’er-do-wells.
Plus how much of a fatigue factor is involved - that certainly affects willingness to accept refugees from the Middle East and Africa.
Worryingly a Ukrainian couple I know haven't said anything/appeared for over 48 hours now, despite promising daily updates. The third Ukrainian I know has posted footage of her apartment block as not much more than rubble.
He won't back track, hold back on flattening residential areas, accept any settlement other yhan on his terms.
He will dig in deeper until he wins or is deposed.
Where are people able to fly to from Russia?
I am feeling more chipper about Leicester after Tuesdays winner, but even more so about a clean sheet at last this year.
Middle East
India
Let's hope they can return
I know others think such things should not be linked, I respect that opinion - but disagree. We need to see. To understand the horror. To feel the outrage. Why should Putin be allowed to hide this stuff away?
https://twitter.com/wkrawcz1/status/1499497097728561154?s=21
That's two against Boreham Wood.
"• Anchor: Aleksandr Butmanov, economist, expert in stock strategies. Alexander hello.
• He: Hi, not going to say good day.
• Anchor: Yeah, noone says that anymore. Are stock strategies out the window or are you hoping to keep your profession?
• He: Worst case Ill work as Santa like I was doing it 25 years ago
• Anchor: Thats only once a year.
• He: Ok, no jokes. Let me really quick, Im going to say hi to Sergey Yusichenko, who was singing death to stock market 13 years ago.
• He: Today I am drinking soda water. "DEAR STOCK MARKET, YOU MEANT A LOT TO US, YOU WERE SO INTERESTING, WE WERE SO CLOSE. REST IN PEACE MY FRIEND"
• Anchor: I wont comment this flash-mob. I don't want to believe it."
https://old.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t5qj3p/during_live_feed_on_russian_tv_the_stock_exchange/
The Entire staff of the Russian TV channel “the rain” resigned during a live stream with last words: “no war” and then played “swan lake” ballet video (just like they did on all USSR tv channels when it suddenly collapsed)
https://old.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t5ug4p/the_entire_staff_of_the_russian_tv_channel_the/
Free Russian TV going out in style.
Interestingly there also seem to be some what I assume to be false myths being promulgated on the ukraine side. One thing she said to me was this
" Austria and some other countries have sent several planes to help Ukraine...one of these planes is flown by a man nicknamed "The Ghost of Kiev". He has already shot down 19 planes out of 29"
This seems to me at least an improbably large number considering the number of days since he invasion but then if it raises ukranian spirits I wasnt going to knock it.
Nonetheless, the Government continues to foot-drag on the matter, ostensibly over security concerns though more likely, I imagine, because the portion of the population not wanting to admit Ukrainian refugees without question may be a minority, but one within which its own elderly core vote is over-represented. There's also the matter of whether the majority will change its mind if the number of arrivals ends up numbering in the hundreds of thousands, and whether the Government is at all capable (bearing in mind the woeful precedent of the evacuated Afghans) of looking after them properly - both of which issues could precipitate awful PR disasters.
NEW THREAD
But I’ll restrict myself to one: the evidence for Russia’s leadership being ‘super intelligent’ is striking by its absence, right now
Which only has one testicle.
Will Putin win as a write-in candidate with 112% of the registered voters voting for him?
Life is looking more and more SeanT* by the moment.
Was it just the other day that we were discussing how the Defence Secretary should be fired/finished his chances for being Prime Minister by suggesting that Putin had gone "Full Tonto"?
I think we could say the consensus now is - "called it".
Putin's response to the logistical collapse of his army is to go for full mobilisation? So, he will end up with a large mob of guys with guns, and little else wandering round Ukraine...
At random I pulled "Hitler's Army: Soldiers, Nazis, and War in the Third Reich" off the shelf. Part of the authors thesis is that why the East Front turned into such a charnel pit of war crimes was, on the German side, combination of propaganda, "primitivisation", collapsing real discipline and a use of terror as discipline.
- The soldiers were totally steeped in Nazi propaganda - to the point that they saw a distorted reality where they were the victims. And the people they were murdering were somehow the cause.
- The collapse of the German Army logistical system led to a broken-backed war of pillage and murder, with units becoming armed gangs raiding the countryside.
- Loses of officers and NCOs caused a collapse in discipline in the traditional sense. Instead the Germany Army resorted to shooting soldiers in huge numbers. To keep them in line.
The result was a slaughter in all directions....
Any of this remind you of anything?
*Sort of like shit, but with a certain whimsical charm. You house is being attached by rabid gibbons on PCP, but they are reading Seven Men & Two Others aloud, while they do so.