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Punters give LAB a 94% chance of winning Erdington by-election – politicalbetting.com

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  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    edited March 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Under the UK government's new restrictions, their assets will be frozen and they will be banned from travelling to the UK.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60611683

    Your point was?
    Isn’t this what you were complaining the U.K. government is NOT doing?

    Freezing is not the same as confiscation.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    So Boris the Tribune and Great White Hope of the Ukrainians, is NOT quite measuring up to his own billing?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504

    Been an American since he was 6.
    But he is ROOOOOSIAN!

    I rather think the Russian government takes a view that born there etc....

    I remember a briefing by an oil company that when travelling to Russia, you needed to be careful of having enough immediate ancestors to claim Russian citizenship.

    Apparently it wasn't unknown for the Russians to say that since you had a couple of Russian grandparents, you are a Russian citizen, have a nice jail cell for invented crimes. And then start asking for a processing fee to get you out.
  • Isn’t this what you were complaining the U.K. government is NOT doing?

    Freezing is not the same as confiscation.
    Indeed, freezing and confiscation are completely different!
  • PensfoldPensfold Posts: 191
    Lets hope Boris doesn't stray too far from the brief case which contains the deterence button.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,849

    "After all, there aren’t any Russians who got rich by inventing Google..."

    Sergey Mikhailovich Brin. Co-Founder of..... Google.

    Born on August 21, 1973, in Moscow in the Soviet Union.

    Not sure if he a dual national or has renounced Russian citizenship

    Can you renounce Russian citizenship?
    That's the exception that proves the rule.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Isn’t this what you were complaining the U.K. government is NOT doing?

    Freezing is not the same as confiscation.
    "Assets confiscated/frozen/expropriated"

    Leave it, mate. A bellyflop for the ages, and you know it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,609
    IshmaelZ said:

    Reverse the burden of proof, limit compensation in case the govt gets it wrong to the return of the actual assets. Which menas we can do things now and not in about the 3rd week of May.
    Immediately? That doesn't give Russian Tory donors much time to liquidate their assets.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347
    MaxPB said:

    No, because Parliament is sovereign, it could repeal the HRA and in that scenario where a government intending to stop girls' education I'd expect that to happen on day one.
    But stopped by the European court? We haven't lost that protection against government caprice and tyranny with Brexit, have we?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,824
    Have we done this?
    Yet another scandal in the shambles which is "care" for vulnerable children.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/mar/03/excluded-children-funds-bolton-bar-owners-social-life
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,196
    kinabalu said:

    What about the ECHR?
    We can be kicked out of it or leave it (I am not advocating that) but again all it would take is an act of Parliament - or the repeal of an act.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,935

    But he is ROOOOOSIAN!

    I rather think the Russian government takes a view that born there etc....

    I remember a briefing by an oil company that when travelling to Russia, you needed to be careful of having enough immediate ancestors to claim Russian citizenship.

    Apparently it wasn't unknown for the Russians to say that since you had a couple of Russian grandparents, you are a Russian citizen, have a nice jail cell for invented crimes. And then start asking for a processing fee to get you out.
    People are making this more complicated than it needs to be. We will surely have intelligence files on most of the sensible targets already. Cross check with US and EU lists. Pick the top 10 or 20 by wealth and closeness of connection to the Kremlin (regardless of nationality). Freeze their UK assets until they satisfy some criteria.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited March 2022

    Indeed, freezing and confiscation are completely different!
    ...except to the kind of meisterthinker who writes "Assets confiscated/frozen/expropriated..."
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    rcs1000 said:

    That's the exception that proves the rule.
    I know you are joking, but others might not.

    There are rather a lot of Russians who left Russia because of what has happened there for decades. Many of them were highly educated and formed an dispora, in many ways not dissimilar to the Jews leaving Europe before the war. Mind you, many are Jewish as well.

    Tons of them in IT in the city.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,690
    IshmaelZ said:

    Under the UK government's new restrictions, their assets will be frozen and they will be banned from travelling to the UK.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60611683

    Your point was?

    ETA I like this conversation so much I've saved a copy for future use. Bellyflops like this are a once in a lifetime event.
    Isn't that the point, the government is doing it methodically where they have got a legally watertight case rather than a big broad brush which gets more people but ends up being reversed. This is two clear cut cases and I'm sure the government's legal teams have combed through the consequences and potential legal defence of Usmanov and feel they could win in court. If anything this undermines your point that it's easy to achieve.
  • PensfoldPensfold Posts: 191

    You are not suggesting the only thing we can infer, Usamov moved quick, all his money is in safe place already?
    If he moved his money to Russia then it is rapidly de-valuing. Elsewhere it is likely to be frozen in due course, although this might take a while. Eventually it might be sequestered for reparations in Ukrane.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,690
    rcs1000 said:

    That's the exception that proves the rule.
    What about those Russian firms that invested in Facebook. Another exception?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347
    edited March 2022
    biggles said:

    The first line would have to repeal the Human Rights Act but we could do it now outside the EU.
    The courts can take a view on whether law is compatible with other laws (hence the human rights Act) and whether the Government has followed the process it laid out, but they can’t strike down laws.
    Ah so maybe I at long last spot a benefit of Brexit. It's now that little bit easier for the government to enact things which violate fundamental human rights.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504

    People are making this more complicated than it needs to be. We will surely have intelligence files on most of the sensible targets already. Cross check with US and EU lists. Pick the top 10 or 20 by wealth and closeness of connection to the Kremlin (regardless of nationality). Freeze their UK assets until they satisfy some criteria.
    Absolutely. And while I am at it I will add some names to the end of the list. Wrong 'uns. Eyes a bit close together. You know the types.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Rustle.

    :lol:
    My English gets worse by the day. Occupational hazard of my own personal language shift.

    (I did wonder why the word was rejected by my keyboard dictionary. It’s usually because I use a lot of Scots, which lacks a keyboard.)
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    MaxPB said:

    Isn't that the point, the government is doing it methodically where they have got a legally watertight case rather than a big broad brush which gets more people but ends up being reversed. This is two clear cut cases and I'm sure the government's legal teams have combed through the consequences and potential legal defence of Usmanov and feel they could win in court. If anything this undermines your point that it's easy to achieve.
    Sure, but it's remarkable how weeks and months has shrunk to inside of a working day.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,690
    kinabalu said:

    Ah so maybe I at long last spot a benefit of Brexit. It's now that little bit easier for the government to enact things which violate fundamental human rights.
    Is your faith in the UK so weak that you need that comfort blanket?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    biggles said:

    I think we would, rationally, have to act in “pre-emptive self defence”. I.e. If tactical nukes were used in Ukraine and we were certain there was a ticking clock to an invasion of the likes of Estonia. But it would require unanimity I think. So a pretty high bar.
    That “first strike” chatter is increasing. We’re all fucked.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,935
    IshmaelZ said:

    Sure, but it's remarkable how weeks and months has shrunk to inside of a working day.
    The ones who have not donated to the Tory party can be fast tracked. For the rest the hope is the war will be over before we get around to do anything....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,849

    I know you are joking, but others might not.

    There are rather a lot of Russians who left Russia because of what has happened there for decades. Many of them were highly educated and formed an dispora, in many ways not dissimilar to the Jews leaving Europe before the war. Mind you, many are Jewish as well.

    Tons of them in IT in the city.
    I am indeed joking: many of the people who pioneered high frequency trading were Russian.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022

    I said at the outset of this thing that the UK ought to have a special visa for highly skilled Russian migrants, especially those with STEM qualifications.

    Brain drain them into oblivion.

    As I mentioned earlier it is already happening. Russians are leaving and unlike Ukrainians they don't want to go back to their home country.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    kinabalu said:

    Ah so maybe I at long last spot a benefit of Brexit. It's now that little bit easier for the government to enact things which violate fundamental human rights.
    That was always a key objective for them.
  • PensfoldPensfold Posts: 191

    Why is Truss announcing individual sanctions?

    Don’t these belong to another department, maybe Justice or the Home Office?

    No it belongs to the Foreign Office. See https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-announces-sanctions-against-russian-oligarchs-alisher-usmanov-and-igor-shuvalov
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,920
    edited March 2022

    I said at the outset of this thing that the UK ought to have a special visa for highly skilled Russian migrants, especially those with STEM qualifications.

    Brain drain them into oblivion.

    A good idea in the short-term, but if and when Putin falls that kind of outlook could be part of the early 1990's again for Russia, redux. Cue the next cycle of implosion and embittered, autocratic rebuilding.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    edited March 2022
    kinabalu said:

    Ah so maybe I at long last spot a benefit of Brexit. It's now that little bit easier for the government to enact things which violate fundamental human rights.
    Yeah this is where my “principled sovereignty” case for leaving the EU in a hard Brexit whilst supporting open borders and zero trade barriers is open to a tad of criticism. Basically my view is I am more free because a future U.K. Government has the right to trample all over what I think are my rights but no EU law can do so. I appreciate I am open to ridicule.

    Also means I’ve had some very odd fellow travellers.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,690
    IshmaelZ said:

    Sure, but it's remarkable how weeks and months has shrunk to inside of a working day.
    But the work going into this didn't just start yesterday. These two are already the culmination of weeks if work to get a legally defensible case together. To get that for the 20-30 we'd probably look to sanction it's going to take a while. I also note that these sanctions are being brought without new primary legislation, again proving my point that it's better to use current legal framework than use executive power and the government majority to target individuals.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    edited March 2022

    As I mentioned earlier it is already happening. Russians are leaving and unlike Ukrainians they don't want to go back to their home country.
    Yeah, but I want them to go to the UK, not other countries.

    Give them a modest financial inducement to locate to Manchester, Glasgow or Birmingham and we can tick the levelling up box, too.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347
    MaxPB said:

    Is your faith in the UK so weak that you need that comfort blanket?
    I think it's good to have some fundamental things that must be respected regardless of what any particular UK government of the moment decides it wants to do. That we did and now don't - if such is the case - is imo a regression.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    MaxPB said:

    But the work going into this didn't just start yesterday. These two are already the culmination of weeks if work to get a legally defensible case together. To get that for the 20-30 we'd probably look to sanction it's going to take a while. I also note that these sanctions are being brought without new primary legislation, again proving my point that it's better to use current legal framework than use executive power and the government majority to target individuals.
    1. The invasion started a week ago. A week. 7 days.

    2. The govt line this morning was weeks or months needed, starting now.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,824
    Mykolenko captains Everton tonight.
    Boreham Wood's right-back Kane Smith got a ticket for the away end at Spurs on Monday.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Pensfold said:

    No it belongs to the Foreign Office. See https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-announces-sanctions-against-russian-oligarchs-alisher-usmanov-and-igor-shuvalov
    Which would be persuasive if it related to another case a couple of years back, but doesn't affect the suggestion that Insta Liz has annexed this ground from a neighbouring department today
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,690
    IshmaelZ said:

    1. The invasion started a week ago. A week. 7 days.

    2. The govt line this morning was weeks or months needed, starting now.
    The invasion may have started 7 days ago, yet the government has had intelligence briefings for a while around it being a certainty. Are you suggesting that the work on sanctions only started on the invasion day?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    I spoke to a Moscow based Russian today. He is out of foreign currency. He is also more or less out of roubles. Because his cards don’t work and he can’t draw more without an appointment at the bank, which are hard to come by. And prices are presumably already rising. I expect he is typical. Better placed than most actually given his income level and education. Described it as the darkest days in Russia in his lifetime.

    After Lehman’s collapsed, I recall Robert Peston wetting his pants about the ATMs not working the next day, so the clunking fist printed money to bail out all the banks. What is happening in Russia this week is what happens without a viable route to the bail out. It’s remarkable how little coverage this is getting. Not so good for viewing figures as war porn I suppose.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,001
    IshmaelZ said:

    1. The invasion started a week ago. A week. 7 days.

    2. The govt line this morning was weeks or months needed, starting now.
    They do make a rod for their own back - all the “world leading/beating” bollocks doesn’t really help as everyone knows they are mendacious bullshitters and it just gives easy targets.

    They need to be more submarine and not spout shit, just get on quietly under the surface unleashing sanctions missiles.

    And they need to get over that bollocks about being excited about being surrounded by wealthy people as that’s how they get in this mess. Fund raiser BE (just as a random choice of letters) gets pulled deeper into the super high roller club and loves the lifestyle so overlooks what’s best for the country - if you don’t put the country first then fuck off out of politics and stick to other hobbies.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,771
    MattW said:

    Just off to watch it, but a small red flag that Aron has admitted his lack of knowledge of a lot of the stuff wrt to Ukraine on previous vids.

    He is quite good at ferreting out and summarising news, though.
    An excellent summary from a good range of sources.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,824
    FA Cup quarters.
    Saints v City
    Boro v Chelsea
    Forest/Huddersfield v Liverpool
    Palace v Everton/B Wood
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,305
    moonshine said:

    I spoke to a Moscow based Russian today. He is out of foreign currency. He is also more or less out of roubles. Because his cards don’t work and he can’t draw more without an appointment at the bank, which are hard to come by. And prices are presumably already rising. I expect he is typical. Better placed than most actually given his income level and education. Described it as the darkest days in Russia in his lifetime.

    After Lehman’s collapsed, I recall Robert Peston wetting his pants about the ATMs not working the next day, so the clunking fist printed money to bail out all the banks. What is happening in Russia this week is what happens without a viable route to the bail out. It’s remarkable how little coverage this is getting. Not so good for viewing figures as war porn I suppose.

    It was in fact Northern Rock which brought home how banking failure could lead swiftly to panic and disorder. We were also very close to having the RBS machines shut down as well so there's an acute understanding of how the slightest hint of problems in the financial sector can escalate into full scale disaster.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031

    That was always a key objective for them.
    Only against the Scots.....
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,824
    moonshine said:

    I spoke to a Moscow based Russian today. He is out of foreign currency. He is also more or less out of roubles. Because his cards don’t work and he can’t draw more without an appointment at the bank, which are hard to come by. And prices are presumably already rising. I expect he is typical. Better placed than most actually given his income level and education. Described it as the darkest days in Russia in his lifetime.

    After Lehman’s collapsed, I recall Robert Peston wetting his pants about the ATMs not working the next day, so the clunking fist printed money to bail out all the banks. What is happening in Russia this week is what happens without a viable route to the bail out. It’s remarkable how little coverage this is getting. Not so good for viewing figures as war porn I suppose.

    Why can't they print roubles?
    Is that a daft question?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347

    Parliament can pass whatever law it likes. If you believe that the law is contrary to the Human Rights Act you can challenge it in court. Some laws have been ruled unlawful on this basis, but generally Parliament can remedy that by passing another law.
    Human Rights protection should be at international level, I'd say, or at least European, otherwise a UK government could repeal it, remote as that might seem as a possibility.

    But, yes, thanks, I get it now. Parliament is like Eddie and the Hot Rods. Does anything it wants to do.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    Does the Russian constitution have a mechanism for replacing a President who is incapacitated or insane?
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    Sienna Rodgers
    @siennamarla
    ·
    4m
    Labour concernee about low turnout in Birmingham Erdington, already a very low turnout seat but by-election + bad weather doesn’t help. Labour source: “The weather’s absolutely grim and turnout is looking extremely low. It’s going to be really tight.”
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,690
    kinabalu said:

    I think it's good to have some fundamental things that must be respected regardless of what any particular UK government of the moment decides it wants to do. That we did and now don't - if such is the case - is imo a regression.
    It shows your lack of confidence in democracy, IMO, that you would take that lever away from the people and hand it to faceless technocrats.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,935

    Does the Russian constitution have a mechanism for replacing a President who is incapacitated or insane?

    A bullet?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,982
    edited March 2022

    Sienna Rodgers
    @siennamarla
    ·
    4m
    Labour concernee about low turnout in Birmingham Erdington, already a very low turnout seat but by-election + bad weather doesn’t help. Labour source: “The weather’s absolutely grim and turnout is looking extremely low. It’s going to be really tight.”

    "tight" as in somebody might actually have to count them to confirm a big majority rather than just weigh them?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,771
    biggles said:

    I think we would, rationally, have to act in “pre-emptive self defence”. I.e. If tactical nukes were used in Ukraine and we were certain there was a ticking clock to an invasion of the likes of Estonia. But it would require unanimity I think. So a pretty high bar.
    On redlines, perhaps if Putin tried a USSR-style extermination of a proportion of the population.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347

    We can be kicked out of it or leave it (I am not advocating that) but again all it would take is an act of Parliament - or the repeal of an act.
    Just have to trust Parliament and the People to not go off the rails then, I suppose. Fair enough, but I would prefer something over and above to ensure the essentials.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,920
    edited March 2022
    Local ceasefires and humanitarian corridors agreed. if only it was a national ceasefire.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970

    The great satan:

    image

    Crivvens. A world where I am firmly, nay eagerly in agreement with Iran’s Ahmedinnerjacket

    Topsyturvy times
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,935
    MaxPB said:

    It shows your lack of confidence in democracy, IMO, that you would take that lever away from the people and hand it to faceless technocrats.
    It would be easier to have faith in democracy if Western countries had not been electing increasingly authoritarian and kleptocratic governments over the last two decades. We are also facing massive technological change that may be particularly useful for authoritarian regimes to track and control individuals. Fears are well founded, and those who dismiss them are being naive.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,305


    That “first strike” chatter is increasing. We’re all fucked.

    I find it incredible there are individuals actively promoting the idea of going to war with Russia. It may well be the last thing we do and the cost is incalculable.

    So far, Putin has been scrupulously careful to avoid any contact with NATO forces or territory. We have to do the dame - that's the rules of the game.

    Yes, we can and should get angry about the senseless deaths and ruination of the Ukraine but ultimately we cannot and must not actively intervene or be involved. Supplying weapons is as far as we can go. The "we must stand up to the bully" crowd are getting into the same psychosis of 1914 - as somehow, war will solve all our problems.

    Unlike 1914, of course, it would all be over by Christmas if not Easter if not Cheltenham week.

    The economic "campaign" against Russia has been far more united and effective than seemed likely a month ago - credit to the EU for doing their bit as well. The Russians are for now hearing their version of "the truth" and I've seen more than one of the QAnon lunatics who claim Putin's military operation is backed by Trump and aimed at clearing "deep state elements" out of Ukraine (apparently). After that, we are told we must "wake up" (whatever that nonsense means).

    I don't mind people talking pish but how do we de-programme these poor brainwashed souls?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,690

    It would be easier to have faith in democracy if Western countries had not been electing increasingly authoritarian and kleptocratic governments over the last two decades. We are also facing massive technological change that may be particularly useful for authoritarian regimes to track and control individuals. Fears are well founded, and those who dismiss them are being naive.
    But who's to say that the faceless technocrat won't also do the same, at least with politicians we can vote them out.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,921

    Sienna Rodgers
    @siennamarla
    ·
    4m
    Labour concernee about low turnout in Birmingham Erdington, already a very low turnout seat but by-election + bad weather doesn’t help. Labour source: “The weather’s absolutely grim and turnout is looking extremely low. It’s going to be really tight.”

    Pure expectation management. Labour will win easily.
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737

    "tight" as in somebody might actually have to count them to confirm a big majority rather than just weigh them?
    I can see an extremely low turnout of around 25% and its possible that Labour does not even manage 10000 votes but I would be surprised if the Labour majority was lower than 10% in the worst case scenario.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,935
    MaxPB said:

    But who's to say that the faceless technocrat won't also do the same, at least with politicians we can vote them out.
    Dividing power between different branches of government reduces the power of the executive. An all powerful parliament, led by an executive that is not checked by its MPs is not a good system in the long run.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Can Smithson Jnr or some other financial whizz explain what the practicalities of the Russian position now are. Surely they have to get money out there somehow. Maybe they fear rampant inflation but I can't see removing all the money as being the answer.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    As stupid as it is, that was recorded before the war, and before the threatened expulsion.
  • As stupid as it is, that was recorded before the war, and before the threatened expulsion.
    And that excuses it ?
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,921
    MaxPB said:

    The invasion may have started 7 days ago, yet the government has had intelligence briefings for a while around it being a certainty. Are you suggesting that the work on sanctions only started on the invasion day?
    It’s been going on for weeks. I know someone has been working on them. Long days and weekend working too. As you say they had the intelligence.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724

    Sienna Rodgers
    @siennamarla
    ·
    4m
    Labour concernee about low turnout in Birmingham Erdington, already a very low turnout seat but by-election + bad weather doesn’t help. Labour source: “The weather’s absolutely grim and turnout is looking extremely low. It’s going to be really tight.”

    I may have heard this one before.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    MaxPB said:

    The invasion may have started 7 days ago, yet the government has had intelligence briefings for a while around it being a certainty. Are you suggesting that the work on sanctions only started on the invasion day?
    If you are right, it was bad luck that they started planning in advance but not far enough in advance, wasn't it? And why did the timescale change from weeks or months this morning to Oh look, we have already done it?

    Your premise is wrong anyway. Unless Putin is an MI5 sleeper we cannot have known the invasion was going to happen, until it did. Nobody did.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    edited March 2022
    stodge said:

    I find it incredible there are individuals actively promoting the idea of going to war with Russia. It may well be the last thing we do and the cost is incalculable.

    So far, Putin has been scrupulously careful to avoid any contact with NATO forces or territory. We have to do the dame - that's the rules of the game.

    Yes, we can and should get angry about the senseless deaths and ruination of the Ukraine but ultimately we cannot and must not actively intervene or be involved. Supplying weapons is as far as we can go. The "we must stand up to the bully" crowd are getting into the same psychosis of 1914 - as somehow, war will solve all our problems.

    Unlike 1914, of course, it would all be over by Christmas if not Easter if not Cheltenham week.

    The economic "campaign" against Russia has been far more united and effective than seemed likely a month ago - credit to the EU for doing their bit as well. The Russians are for now hearing their version of "the truth" and I've seen more than one of the QAnon lunatics who claim Putin's military operation is backed by Trump and aimed at clearing "deep state elements" out of Ukraine (apparently). After that, we are told we must "wake up" (whatever that nonsense means).

    I don't mind people talking pish but how do we de-programme these poor brainwashed souls?
    Don’t put words in my mouth. You’re attacking a straw man. Still, this is the internet - you crack on. I don’t have the energy to call you names.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110

    And that excuses it ?
    No but your post was one of those diversionary ones you do that moan about the Labour Party.

    I’m just gently pointing out that you somewhat out of date.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288

    It's quite heartening to live in a country people who have the goods on high ups are rewarded with a knighthood not a pair of concrete clogs and a boat ride.
    Though in Williamson’s case….
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,690
    IshmaelZ said:

    If you are right, it was bad luck that they started planning in advance but not far enough in advance, wasn't it? And why did the timescale change from weeks or months this morning to Oh look, we have already done it?

    Your premise is wrong anyway. Unless Putin is an MI5 sleeper we cannot have known the invasion was going to happen, until it did. Nobody did.
    In these two cases the work is done, in loads of others it's not. Are you really this dense?
  • No but your post was one of those diversionary ones you do that moan about the Labour Party.

    I’m just gently pointing out that you somewhat out of date.
    You are trying to dismiss it as a moan about labour
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Taz said:

    It’s been going on for weeks. I know someone has been working on them. Long days and weekend working too. As you say they had the intelligence.
    Course you do. Course you do. Because people who work on this stuff definitely, definitely blab about it to people who blab about the blabbing on the internet because they think it makes them sound cool. Happens all the time. I'm one of Toby Esterhazy's lamplighters myself.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110

    You are trying to dismiss it as a moan about labour
    Because it basically is.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100
    edited March 2022

    That “first strike” chatter is increasing. We’re all fucked.
    Except (at least on this side of the new iron curtain) none of the chatterers have a shred of power, thankfully.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Sienna Rodgers
    @siennamarla
    ·
    4m
    Labour concernee about low turnout in Birmingham Erdington, already a very low turnout seat but by-election + bad weather doesn’t help. Labour source: “The weather’s absolutely grim and turnout is looking extremely low. It’s going to be really tight.”

    Translation: "it's in the bag", right?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,690

    Dividing power between different branches of government reduces the power of the executive. An all powerful parliament, led by an executive that is not checked by its MPs is not a good system in the long run.
    But it is checked by voters, in you're scenario what's to stop the technocrats from doing all of these unnamed awful things and how do the people remove their hands from the levers of power?
  • Because it basically is.
    There are a number of pro Russia mps sitting on Labour's benches who should have the whip withdrawn if Starmer is not to be compromised
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    A bullet?
    I saw that bullet coming. But seriously, those that (hopefully) remove Putin could prefer it to look constitutional, he might even fall ill and convalesce somewhere. Of course it could also be a bloody contested putsch.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,921
    edited March 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Course you do. Course you do. Because people who work on this stuff definitely, definitely blab about it to people who blab about the blabbing on the internet because they think it makes them sound cool. Happens all the time. I'm one of Toby Esterhazy's lamplighters myself.
    Ha ha, state of this mug. I was addressing Max not you.

    I’ve no need nor reason to lie. It was hardly a secret or broken any NDA’s. Feel free to come back with your usual retarded nonsense. I am going back to ignoring you.

    Chill.

    https://twitter.com/nathanspuns/status/1498871397149519880?s=21
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,743

    There are a number of pro Russia mps sitting on Labour's benches who should have the whip withdrawn if Starmer is not to be compromised
    Go on?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100
    Presumably, at some point Putin is going to say: I'll call a ceasefire if you reverse all the financial sanctions.

    What does the West do then?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,849
    dixiedean said:

    Why can't they print roubles?
    Is that a daft question?
    They can indeed print roubles, which is why although @moonshine is right in his general thrust, I think he's wrong in the specifics.

    Russia should be able to keep its banking system afloat by bathing the system in newly printed roubles.

    But that all that does is shift the problem.

    Because all the roubles in the world can't change the fact that a lot of consumer goods that Russians took for granted will no longer be available in the shops. Sure, there will be domestic food and vodka, but what about imported wine, beer and spirits?

    What about the fact that spare parts for cars will rapidly run out? What about vital components used in manufacturing that need to be imported? Supply chains will be drying up everywhere, and there are very few things in Russia (or anywhere else) that can be be made entirely without some foreign widget.

    And if the factory isn't producing stuff, how does it pay its staff?

    And how will Russians react to empty shelves?

    Inflation will be horrendous.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,986
    edited March 2022
    stodge said:

    I find it incredible there are individuals actively promoting the idea of going to war with Russia. It may well be the last thing we do and the cost is incalculable.

    So far, Putin has been scrupulously careful to avoid any contact with NATO forces or territory. We have to do the dame - that's the rules of the game.

    Yes, we can and should get angry about the senseless deaths and ruination of the Ukraine but ultimately we cannot and must not actively intervene or be involved. Supplying weapons is as far as we can go. The "we must stand up to the bully" crowd are getting into the same psychosis of 1914 - as somehow, war will solve all our problems.

    Unlike 1914, of course, it would all be over by Christmas if not Easter if not Cheltenham week.

    The economic "campaign" against Russia has been far more united and effective than seemed likely a month ago - credit to the EU for doing their bit as well. The Russians are for now hearing their version of "the truth" and I've seen more than one of the QAnon lunatics who claim Putin's military operation is backed by Trump and aimed at clearing "deep state elements" out of Ukraine (apparently). After that, we are told we must "wake up" (whatever that nonsense means).

    I don't mind people talking pish but how do we de-programme these poor brainwashed souls?
    Confiscate their PS5s then (non fatally of course) gut shoot them.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,305

    I saw that bullet coming. But seriously, those that (hopefully) remove Putin could prefer it to look constitutional, he might even fall ill and convalesce somewhere. Of course it could also be a bloody contested putsch.
    A heart attack is often fatal when caused by a bullet in the right place.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Sir Gavin Williamson. Wtf
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,690

    Presumably, at some point Putin is going to say: I'll call a ceasefire if you reverse all the financial sanctions.

    What does the West do then?

    We say "withdraw your forces back to Russia and sign this treaty which says you won't invade". A ceasefire isn't enough.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,921
    Applicant said:

    Translation: "it's in the bag", right?
    I would have said so
  • Presumably, at some point Putin is going to say: I'll call a ceasefire if you reverse all the financial sanctions.

    What does the West do then?

    Nothing without full withdrawal from Ukraine
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970
    And this is on top of Covid. And all completely pointless


    ‘LONDON, March 3 (Reuters) - JPMorgan said on Thursday it expected Russia's economy to contract 35% in the second quarter and 7% in 2022 with the economy suffering an economic output decline comparable to the 1998 crisis.’

    https://twitter.com/balmforthtom/status/1499471777096998919?s=21

    Many on the thread saying this is way too optimistic for Russia
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,921

    Nothing without full withdrawal from Ukraine
    Pre 2014 borders ?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100

    Nothing without full withdrawal from Ukraine
    Yes, that would be my preferred line too... but the consequence is, the killing in Ukraine will go on and we in the West will have to live with that.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,935
    edited March 2022
    MaxPB said:

    But it is checked by voters, in you're scenario what's to stop the technocrats from doing all of these unnamed awful things and how do the people remove their hands from the levers of power?
    AIUI there is nothing to stop a parliament saying the next election is 50 years away, or that we are replacing constituencies with voting 1 representative per council, so it is not properly checked by voters without a written constitution or some enduring bill of rights that is hard for a parliament to remove.

    The courts, or as you prefer to call them for some reason, autocrats, are not able to do take power as they have different and separate powers to the executive and legislature.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    MaxPB said:

    In these two cases the work is done, in loads of others it's not. Are you really this dense?
    Evidently.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,138
    After telling me a few hours ago it was monitoring the situation, Morrisons has now announced it will stop stocking Russian vodka https://twitter.com/sebwhale/status/1499410759520079880 https://twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/1499479421228666883/photo/1
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,690

    Yes, that would be my preferred line too... but the consequence is, the killing in Ukraine will go on and we in the West will have to live with that.
    We also keep our boot on the neck of Russia's economy and drain the cash and lifeblood out of it until Putin is unable to turn his back on his enemies for a second for fear of being stabbed in the back.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    Leon said:

    And this is on top of Covid. And all completely pointless


    ‘LONDON, March 3 (Reuters) - JPMorgan said on Thursday it expected Russia's economy to contract 35% in the second quarter and 7% in 2022 with the economy suffering an economic output decline comparable to the 1998 crisis.’

    https://twitter.com/balmforthtom/status/1499471777096998919?s=21

    Many on the thread saying this is way too optimistic for Russia

    I’m struggling to make sense of those numbers. It’s only just March. Down 35% in the quarter but only 7% for the year?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,849

    I’m struggling to make sense of those numbers. It’s only just March. Down 35% in the quarter but only 7% for the year?
    Yes. That basically assumes that Q1, Q3 and Q4 will all be perfectly normal quarters. (35% of 25% = 7-8%).

    So it's a rubbish forecast.
This discussion has been closed.