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Punters give LAB a 94% chance of winning Erdington by-election – politicalbetting.com

We have given hardly any coverage to today’s Westminster by-election in Erdington simply because this appears to be an almost certain LAB hold.
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In other views:
We've heard a lot of discussion in recent days about how our real exit game in this nightmare could be a palace coup or a popular revolution against Putin. Putting my historian's hat on, let's dissect this proposition. I am not very hopeful. 👇🏿
https://twitter.com/DrRadchenko/status/1499272892172935168
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomkeller-Museum
As to the likely result of running it - see "Hitler's Nuclear Weapons" by Geoffrey Brooks. There was no control system. If it had gone critical, it would have run away in seconds, killing the operators with radiation and escalating to... fun...
The simple reality is as WOPR said on War Games - the only way to win is not to play. Nuclear War almost happened at least three times and all would have been a mistake. Lets not even get ourselves into the position where mistakes can happen. Yeltsin had his nuclear key activated in their launch order briefcase in 1995. He managed not to and he was permanently pissed.
Would Putin have the same restraint in a similar "we're under attack!!!" circumstances?
https://twitter.com/jakluge/status/1499373653372420099
Interesting tweet on a video from a substantial number of non-captured Russian soldiers complaining:
Forced to sign papers to be retroactively dismissed from the army from the day before they entered Ukraine
4 days without food and supplies (i.e. they had what they carried with them, nothing since).
No-one picking up dead bodies.
Spent the last 3 days waiting for transport to be taken back to Russia.
Told initially that it was an exercise.
Sleeping on the ground without tents or water, sodden feet.
Covid denier ✔
Anti masker ✔
Vaccine sceptic ✔
Massive narcissistic rsole ✔
Putinist ✔
My grandfather, from his time in WWI, remembered good officers, in his diaries, on the basis (of among other things) their efforts to get dry socks and fix boots for the men.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/other/russia-ukraine-crisis-why-vladimir-putin-is-interested-in-scotland-and-scottish-nationalists-e2-80-93-dr-alison-smith/ar-AAUvurh?ocid=uxbndlbing
The big picture: Russia's designs on the little-known agency raise the stakes for what the Russian government's vision of the internet could mean for the rest of the world, especially following its invasion of Ukraine.
https://www.axios.com/us-russia-internet-international-telecommunication-union-b1704192-495d-4fdc-95e2-cb923906c501.html
EDIT: Found it
https://simpleflying.com/biggest-aircraft-lessors/
https://simpleflying.com/irish-planes-russia/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qpHvumE8ILg
I think the better way of looking at it is this: we are constrained by relatively few obligations following Brexit (Parliament can now generally amend retained EU law, albeit with a risk of impact on the TCA and some other modes of engagement with the EU) and as far as I know we are not operating within any international constraints which do not also apply to EU member states. So it is hard to see a genuine reason that the UK as a sovereign nation can't legislate effectively to do things that EU nations are now doing. Reasons might include "it's difficult" or "we are worried about the longer-term precedent" or "we don't really want to".
- Ukraine must "demilitarise" and "deNazify"
- Crimea - Ukraine's southern peninsula annexed by Moscow in 2014 - is recognised by Kyiv as part of Russia
- Two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine - self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic are formally recognised." (Source: BBC)
I'd say Ukraine could give up Crimea & Luhansk/Donetsk in return for Russia relinquishing all further territorial claims in Ukraine and for Russia accepting Ukraine can join the EU in due course.
Crimea has a Russian majority. Luhansk/Donetsk I really don't know -- but if they can get an acknowledgment that the rest of the Ukraine is not Russian, then it is surely worth it (cf Karelia & Finland).
The danger now is a de facto boundary is established by war that is actually much worse for Ukraine. Once population movements start (cf Northern Cyprus, Palestine), they can be very difficult to undo.
The territorial integrity of Ukraine (minus Crimea & Luhansk/Donetsk) would then need formal guarantees from the international community.
I expect my solution is hugely unpopular on pb,com -- but the Palestinians by repeatedly asking for almost everything have ended up with almost nothing.
Those aircraft will become unflyable very quickly and then where will the Russians get replacements from?
Perhaps a stupid question, but given the closure of Russian airspace to most western-registered aircraft and vice versa, how would the planes actually get returned anyway? A very long taxi?
It makes sense not to visit the severely immunocompromised whenever you've got a contagious disease whether it be Covid, cold or cough.
Going to a bar/restaurant/shops/cinema etc is an entirely different matter though.
Unless you're going to act differently between a cold and Covid, why do you need the test?
"demilitarise" - this is simpler. They want Ukraine to get rid of all the weapons with which they have been making Russia look bad.
As to Luhansk/Donetsk - any thoughts on this poll - https://ratinggroup.ua/en/research/ukraine/obschenacionalnyy_opros_ukraina_v_usloviyah_voyny_1_marta_2022.html
https://variety.com/2022/tv/news/itv-bbc-britbox-1235195054/
https://twitter.com/UtdDistrict/status/1499381384137396236
UtdDistrict 🇺🇦@UtdDistrict🗞 Two pages of the document that has been sent to the European Union detailing the new European Super League format, why they believe it is a positive change for football, and that the ESL is not a 'breakaway' league.
You "win" by forcing the stalemate so that neither side plays. If you unilaterally refuse to play, under any circumstances, and unilaterally disarm then that gives the opposing side licence to act freely. As Ukraine who unilaterally disarmed have found.
So yes, Trident does protect the UK, because its very existence as a doomsday device serves its purpose.
Every day that Trident isn't fired, Trident is doing its job.
On that topic:
"NEW: Russia's intelligence agency, the Federal Security Service, has drafted plans for public executions in #Ukraine after cities are captured, per a European intelligence official. The agency is also planning violent crowd control and repressive detention of protest organisers in order to break Ukrainian morale."
https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1499381363010682881
Russia doesn't have the manpower to hold down a nationwide insurgency, but it sure won't stop them trying.
Putin told Macron that the tasks of the Russian military will be fulfilled "no matter what," according to Kremlin.
https://t.me/tass_agency/115788…
https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1499368378582151168?s=20&t=KLlgWDkBZl4HiGUZDzgwqA
But actually I think the biggest problem with your suggestion is Russia 'accepting Ukraine could join the EU in due course' - how to frame it as a concession, when Russia doesn't have any right other than by force of arms to prevent it? Wouldn't conceding that in effect be telling anyone else they may only act in foreign affairs by Russia's permission?
And that's assuming, even if with little option, Ukraine could trust Russia's word.
It doesn't matter what form of diarrhoea a cook has, you don't go into work with diarrhoea. No test necessary to determine what variant, you act based on symptoms and stay off work for 48 hours based on symptoms.
And of course Russia’s demands might expand and they’ll make up something to justify asking for more.
Watch out for smuggled plane parts appearing with the dodgy Chinese fakes in Africa over time.
Which they have since dropped, but a bit like Putin announcing Ukraine is not a real country before invading it, is pretty indicative of the true motivations and aims even if they bring up new justifications and revisions.
I also love the classic whiners complaint about their proposal being 'misunderstood', even as the document makes clear the one of the biggest areas of complaint, the permanent members, was not misunderstood at all, and they have desperately sought to change that when they say how hated it was.
The point about the EU 'losing its control over football' seems designed purely to try and stir up possessiveness, like someone saying parliament was losing its control over something.
2. de-militarize ... if this means Ukraine not joining NATO, but territorial integrity is guaranteed by everyone, that is fine by me. Russia accepts if Ukraine is invaded, the West will then intervene.
3. Well, of course, I repeatedly argued for a plebiscite, & Ukraine did have plenty of time to organise one. And I was repeatedly told on pb.com it was "too difficult" to organise a plebiscite, so we are now facing problems many orders of magnitude more difficult. Sadly, In times of war, the boundary is drawn by guns, not polls.
Russia gets Luhansk/Donetsk ... and any Russian living in the rest of the Ukraine who feels that they really have to live under the Russian flag is relocated there.
After the hacker attack, tickets cannot be bought online. https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1499385307111821318/video/1
Official Government advice is to self-isolate if you have COVID. That is not official Govt advice if you have a cold.
A "plebiscite" in stolen territory held at gunpoint is worthless.
What likely happens here, is that the planes get parted out and the expensive bits smuggled to Africa.
After all, Russia is facing economic reprisal and 'aggressive statements' as it put it from NATO and other countries, and so needs its military to defend itself from that hostile aggressor. Ukraine, meanwhile, has no such concern about a hostile aggressor right next door.
https://twitter.com/jenniferjjacobs/status/1499370949476601860
https://twitter.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1499381363010682881
@YBarddCwsc might actually have a case, if that proposal were to include NATO membership for Ukraine.
Otherwise, as an offer it is, as pointed out, worthless.
The oligarchs are going to have an extreme desire to restore normalcy with the West to end sanctions. The siloviki are going to increasingly want to end an unwinnable war in Ukraine against an endless insurgency that saps Russian troops, money and reputation. And, even if Putin pulls the plug, he will be blamed for the catastrophe in the first place.
In most of the examples in the Twitter thread there was never the universal benefits of a coup as there will be over the next year or five.
But even if that means a promise not to join NATO is technically a concession Ukraine might decide to make, the following is a hard sell:
If you are in NATO Russia probably won't invade your country because of the mutual defence clause
If you are not in NATO Russia will invade your country with impunity if it wishes to (notably, they have advanced multiple non-Nato ambition reasons on this occasion)
Accordingly, you must never seek to join NATO.
I mean, seeing what happens when you are not in NATO only makes it seem more desirable to seek it.
Thinking with brutal rationality, which I don't like to, Western governments may have to prepare their populations for not intervening as a result of things like this.
https://www.airfleets.net/flottecie/Aeroflot.htm
If you look at the West Midlands Mayoral election last year, Andy Street moved from a narrow win in 2017 to a pretty convincing one by doing well in places like Walsall, Wolverhampton, and Dudley. There was very little movement in Birmingham.
It might still have been made competitive if the political environment was as it was this time last year. But, realistically, I don't think 10-1 is value for the Conservatives to spring a surprise.
We're not going to go to war over this. It isn't the Lusitania, and even if it was, we'd turn a blind eye anyway!
So, then, Ukraine ends up with almost all of its present territory, and in the EU asap.
And Russia ends up with Crimea (which Ukraine has no real claim to) and two depressed post-industrial territories.
I think Ukraine would then have got a good deal, actually.
Sadly, what I think is going to happen is Ukraine is going to be partitioned. And population movements will entrench the de facto boundary.
The regime’s narrative breaking on TV: This interviewed trader suddenly takes a Seltzer to drink in memory of the Moscow stock market.
“My only job from now on will be working as a Santa. Cheers to our stock market death.”
https://twitter.com/page_eco/status/1499312352021577732
Like Britain's Got Talent, but with the audience polling hardwired to the Trident launch system.
"Well, Mr Dictator, we can't do anything. Your Hitler tribute act looks like it's getting voted off the planet. Nothing we can do. Sorry."
NY Time blog
Seems Putin is making RU a total one man dictatorship with all discussion closed off and just public lies allowed. Everything else - you are off to prison. Shows levels of desperation,
But, incidentally GOP voters, this is what happens in the end when you build a state on lies and smothering reality.
If you're going to do that then you need to physically keep your assets out of any country where your creditors can get hold of them. But, if you're an airline, your whole business model involves flying your major assets to different countries. For the time being, they aren't doing that... but when normality returns (as it will at some point) they don't really have the option of keeping their assets in Russia (unless they become a 100% domestic airline). It also buggers their chance of acquiring planes in future.
But, there should be a way to guarantee Ukraine's territory without Ukraine formally joining NATO.
"Stop texting me," friend asks, "I'm trying to clean out my phone. They're searching everyone's phone at the border. I'll write to you once I'm on the other side."
https://twitter.com/juliaioffe/status/1499368653501915137
It’s depressing to realise that once you know someone’s views on Covid, you can predict with a high degree of accuracy their views on pretty much everything else. Humanity has become just two warring tribes now. Nuance is the collateral damage of the social media age.
How about that eh? - "Nuance is the collateral damage of the social media age".
From Lozza Fox there.
Simples ... (not)
Seems impossible to think with a country so big and so many borders on edge of europe.