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Punters give LAB a 94% chance of winning Erdington by-election – politicalbetting.com

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  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Scott_xP said:

    Wait, the sclerotic EU is acting faster than the agile UK?

    EU urges UK to act faster before Russian assets are spirited away https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/03/eu-urges-uk-to-act-faster-before-russian-assets-are-spirited-away

    Surely not...

    Scotty reposting Eurozealot Guardian propaganda bullshit? Surely not...
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,162
    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    If polling is right, Labour should expect a large swing?

    It will get a swing but likely less so than nationally as Erdington was 63% Leave. There has been less swing in the polls of Tory Leave voters to Starmer Labour since 2019 compared to Tory Remain voters.

    The former were more likely to be voting for Boris and Brexit, the latter more against Corbyn
    I agree with you. The fact that Labours MP was popular may have disguised how it’s a leave seat not a Labour seat and how popular and strong the Tories are in the midlands. Plus Labour have picked a poor candidate. They appear to be too complacent about this election. Both those things predict a poor result everyone can say is a surprise but shouldn’t be really, as poor candidate and complacency mean labour lose votes to not just Tories but Libdems and TUC. Plus with our country at war it could make the electorate more unpredictable, why not a rally round flag bounce for Tories? I wouldn’t be hugely surprised to wake up to find Tories have won.
    God I hope not. That would nail Pig Dog in place for a decade
    No it will be a safe Labour hold.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,922
    Scoop: Co-op Food has become the first U.K. supermarket chain to remove from sale Russian-made Vodka in response to Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
    https://twitter.com/sebwhale/status/1499410759520079880
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790
    edited March 2022

    " Putin is said to have told Mr Macron in a 90-minute call that he had no plans to stop the invasion, will continue until he takes the whole of Ukraine, and may then add extra security demands on top of the ones he had already sent to the US and NATO. The attack will continue 'without compromises' until 'the end', Putin said."

    Very odd, becasuse this is completely the opposite direction of travel from Lavrov, both apparently in terms of rhetoric and demands. Either it's the world's highest-stakes game of good-cop-bad-cop, as Luckyguy mentions, or we could be looking at some sort of regime split.

    Given the other signs of increasing public dissent here and there, I think it's most likely the latter.

    It sounds as though he's just coming clean on what was his original plan.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Hong Kong is currently experiencing a horrifying COVID-19 outbreak. The mortality rate is approaching the UK's peak in January 2021.

    Why, if Omicron is so much milder?

    Most of that mildness is really due to vaccination and Hong Kong has hugely failed to vaccinate older people.


    https://twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1499412424016994305
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,922

    Are they saying the same to the US who are also giving 30 days notice?

    🚨NEWS: Biden today will turn the screws on Putin and his inner circle for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine a week ago. US targeting oligarchs' families, too, to prevent them from transferring assets to spouses or children, sources tell @nwadhams and me.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-03/u-s-readies-new-sanctions-on-russian-oligarchs-and-families?sref=yYYRek8e
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Scott_xP said:

    The European Union is seeking to remove Russia’s most-favored nation status at the World Trade Organization, a move that could further hit 95 billion euros ($105 billion) of Moscow’s exports to the bloc with tariffs @AlbertoNardelli @bbaschuk
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-03/eu-seeks-to-suspend-russia-s-most-favored-nation-status-at-wto?sref=kiFHtrGv @bpolitics

    I'm assuming that 95 Billion Euro exports is mostly Oil and gas and maybe a little food/fertiliser?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    The fecking brass neck of this!!!!

    BBC Politics
    @BBCPolitics
    ·
    4h
    "I'd just like to offer my heartfelt thanks and admiration to all of those journalists... who are risking their lives to bring us unbiased and accurate news from a live warzone"

    Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries gives an emotional tribute to journalists


    ===

    Two weeks ago it was all about how shit the BBC is and how its funding model has to end.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    felix said:

    Scott_xP said:

    "Contrary to the prime minister’s claims to be leading the world in the economic response to the invasion of Ukraine, there is frustration among allies over the UK’s lethargy in hitting Russian wealth."
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/03/eu-urges-uk-to-act-faster-before-russian-assets-are-spirited-away

    Why aren’t they complaining about the US which is working to the same timetable as the U.K.?
    The Brexit wound has gone very deep .. is why.
    Says Spain to Jersey, like a couple of elderly eunuchs comparing notes on their favourite brothel

    Brexit was meant to mean we get things done quicker, because 1 vs 27, red tape, blah blah
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790

    The default path now is an ongoing, bloody, grinding occupation of Ukraine, alongside the continued economic isolation of Russia.

    I think we in the West can keep that up indefinitely. It’s less clear:

    (1) how long Russia can keep up funding the war or manage the risk of regime collapse.
    (2) how long the Ukrainians can maintain their resistance.

    So long as (1) and (2) remain uncertain, the war continues.

    @YBarddCwsc’s proposed settlement makes sense, and is similar to what I’ve also said, but Putin and Zelensky are both still committed to their own maximalist position....

    That is to suggest an equivalence which doesn't exist.
    Zelensky is committed to Ukraine's survival as an independent nation. I wouldn't described that as maximalist.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    edited March 2022

    Hong Kong is currently experiencing a horrifying COVID-19 outbreak. The mortality rate is approaching the UK's peak in January 2021.

    Why, if Omicron is so much milder?

    Most of that mildness is really due to vaccination and Hong Kong has hugely failed to vaccinate older people.


    https://twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1499412424016994305

    South Korea taking a massive battering from COVID, including the PM reported today as having caught it. As well as New Zealand also seeing a big surge.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,400
    Scott_xP said:

    We just met ⁦@ZelenskyyUa⁩

    “Can you hold out against Russian forces”

    “I don’t know”

    “Will you stay in Kyiv?”
    “Yes!”

    Tired but strong & defiant and demanding a no-fly zone to save the nation.

    https://twitter.com/IanPannell/status/1499413854891221001/photo/1

    Thought. If we can get Zelenskyy and all his government out to US, they can carry on being legitimate Ukraine government, carry on negotiating EU membership, NATO membership, acting like a government in waiting making fight back even more likely?

    DONT LET THEM DIE

    Be like person who grabbed De Gaul and man handled him onto plane

    PLEASE

  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Wait, the sclerotic EU is acting faster than the agile UK?

    EU urges UK to act faster before Russian assets are spirited away https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/03/eu-urges-uk-to-act-faster-before-russian-assets-are-spirited-away

    Surely not...

    Scotty reposting Eurozealot Guardian propaganda bullshit? Surely not...
    But is he wrong?
    The odds are very good.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,117
    edited March 2022
    Nigelb said:

    " Putin is said to have told Mr Macron in a 90-minute call that he had no plans to stop the invasion, will continue until he takes the whole of Ukraine, and may then add extra security demands on top of the ones he had already sent to the US and NATO. The attack will continue 'without compromises' until 'the end', Putin said."

    Very odd, becasuse this is completely the opposite direction of travel from Lavrov, both apparently in terms of rhetoric and demands. Either it's the world's highest-stakes game of good-cop-bad-cop, as Luckyguy mentions, or we could be looking at some sort of regime split.

    Given the other signs of increasing public dissent here and there, I think it's most likely the latter.

    It sounds as though he's just coming clean on what was his original plan.
    Maybe he is, but other people may be up to something different, I think.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,797
    Are we prepared to speak bluntly with Putin?

    If he did say that he would take the whole of Ukraine and wouldn't stop until the job was done I hope he was told that he didn't have a cat in hell's chance of achieving that, we'll be supporting a resistance/government in exile for as long as necessary and his economy will be a basket case in the very near future
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,922
    The door of one of the central cafes in Lviv (counter of loss of the occupiers on the paper).
    A few days ago waiters asked customers to show their covid certificate before entering. Now they ask to show a passport.
    https://twitter.com/KSergatskova/status/1499415564963487745/photo/1
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790

    What have I to report? I have spoken to my mum and dad. My mum likes Nadine Dorries and thinks she’s doing a brilliant job. That’s not surprising. My dad not 100% sure the Snake Island thing happened like was said so they are not all dead, surprised me. But good news if true.
    My brother thinks he can rebuild Ukraine single handedly and become a Oligarch once Putin is beaten out. That bits not surprising.

    Another week in life of Jade 26 1/2. Feels like a crap year so far. 😞

    The only utterly unbelievable thing there is the bit about Dorries.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    There should be an emergency act passed (overnight sitting) to seize all Russian owned assets worth above a certain amount and to hold them in trust for 12 months. Subsequent legislation can set up process for returning some (say to opposition or relatively neutral figures) and confiscating the rest and distributing funds for Ukraine rebuild or whatever.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Farooq said:

    MISTY said:

    The way to avoid getting nuked is surely to convey the impression to the enemy that, under the right circumstances and with the right provocation, you just might.

    An impression the great Ronald Reagan and blessed Lady Thatcher (PBUH) passed off with aplomb.

    By contrast, no government that with a policy of net zero carbon emissions by 2050 is ever going to fire a nuclear weapon. Ever. Under any circumstances. Putin knows that.

    So why are we kidding ourselves? We would never, ever use nuclear weapons, why not bin them and concentrate on conventionals?

    Oh shut the fuck up about environmentalism already
    Do you think there are any circumstances under which the UK ever could or should launch a nuclear weapon? any circumstances at all?


  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    Alexander Stubb
    @alexstubb
    A ten point THREAD on the situation from a country with a 1340km border with Russia:

    1. The security threat is real. Putin wants to take over Ukraine, revamp the security structure of Europe & keep Finland & Sweden out of Nato. We must assume that his actions have no limits.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1499334282992627716
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,162
    IshmaelZ said:

    felix said:

    Scott_xP said:

    "Contrary to the prime minister’s claims to be leading the world in the economic response to the invasion of Ukraine, there is frustration among allies over the UK’s lethargy in hitting Russian wealth."
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/03/eu-urges-uk-to-act-faster-before-russian-assets-are-spirited-away

    Why aren’t they complaining about the US which is working to the same timetable as the U.K.?
    The Brexit wound has gone very deep .. is why.
    Says Spain to Jersey, like a couple of elderly eunuchs comparing notes on their favourite brothel

    Brexit was meant to mean we get things done quicker, because 1 vs 27, red tape, blah blah
    That's why I voted Remain.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,400
    felix said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Wait, the sclerotic EU is acting faster than the agile UK?

    EU urges UK to act faster before Russian assets are spirited away https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/03/eu-urges-uk-to-act-faster-before-russian-assets-are-spirited-away

    Surely not...

    Second time you posted that garbage. Anyone would think you had another agenda completely unrelated to the Ukraine.
    Is the garbage definitely not true though?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,922
    felix said:

    Anyone would think you had another agenda completely unrelated to the Ukraine.

    And what is your agenda?

    You can't refute the facts. Even PJohnson was more convincing...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,857

    Hong Kong is currently experiencing a horrifying COVID-19 outbreak. The mortality rate is approaching the UK's peak in January 2021.

    Why, if Omicron is so much milder?

    Most of that mildness is really due to vaccination and Hong Kong has hugely failed to vaccinate older people.


    https://twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1499412424016994305

    South Korea taking a massive battering from COVID, including the PM reported today as having caught it. As well as New Zealand also seeing a big surge.
    Forget all national vanity etc. Please, FFS, any country out there - vaccinate all the old people, lots and lots of times. It bloody works.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,294
    Nigelb said:

    The default path now is an ongoing, bloody, grinding occupation of Ukraine, alongside the continued economic isolation of Russia.

    I think we in the West can keep that up indefinitely. It’s less clear:

    (1) how long Russia can keep up funding the war or manage the risk of regime collapse.
    (2) how long the Ukrainians can maintain their resistance.

    So long as (1) and (2) remain uncertain, the war continues.

    @YBarddCwsc’s proposed settlement makes sense, and is similar to what I’ve also said, but Putin and Zelensky are both still committed to their own maximalist position....

    That is to suggest an equivalence which doesn't exist.
    Zelensky is committed to Ukraine's survival as an independent nation. I wouldn't described that as maximalist.
    Not quite.
    Zelensky is committed to Ukraine’s survival as an independent nation, at pre-2014 borders, and as a member of both NATO and the EU.

    Perhaps maximalist is the wrong word, I am simply saying that at least for now Zelensky has not signalled any potential compromise position.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited March 2022
    Why did Putin spend 90 minutes on a call with Macron? Sounds like he's very rattled.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,011
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    "Russia's negotiating position - according to the country's foreign minister Sergey Lavrov - is that:

    - Ukraine must "demilitarise" and "deNazify"
    - Crimea - Ukraine's southern peninsula annexed by Moscow in 2014 - is recognised by Kyiv as part of Russia
    - Two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine - self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic are formally recognised." (Source: BBC)

    I'd say Ukraine could give up Crimea & Luhansk/Donetsk in return for Russia relinquishing all further territorial claims in Ukraine and for Russia accepting Ukraine can join the EU in due course.

    Crimea has a Russian majority. Luhansk/Donetsk I really don't know -- but if they can get an acknowledgment that the rest of the Ukraine is not Russian, then it is surely worth it (cf Karelia & Finland).

    The danger now is a de facto boundary is established by war that is actually much worse for Ukraine. Once population movements start (cf Northern Cyprus, Palestine), they can be very difficult to undo.

    The territorial integrity of Ukraine (minus Crimea & Luhansk/Donetsk) would then need formal guarantees from the international community.

    I expect my solution is hugely unpopular on pb,com -- but the Palestinians by repeatedly asking for almost everything have ended up with almost nothing.

    If you 'demilitarise' what stops a later Russian coup?
    I think there would have to be safeguards for Ukraine's democracy-- maybe immediate admission to the EU for the Ukraine? (Not really for us to say, as we are no longer in the EU, I agree).

    So, then, Ukraine ends up with almost all of its present territory, and in the EU asap.

    And Russia ends up with Crimea (which Ukraine has no real claim to) and two depressed post-industrial territories.

    I think Ukraine would then have got a good deal, actually.

    Sadly, what I think is going to happen is Ukraine is going to be partitioned. And population movements will entrench the de facto boundary.
    So we should, in fact, by saying "thank you, Mr Putin!"

    And what about accession processes and criteria? What about the veto each EU country has on admitting new members? I guess this is why Putin has such long tables, because the sheer number of people you'd need to have sitting around a table to thrash out your "deal" is boggling.
    I'm trying to stay polite and not say what I really think of your scheme, because I really don't want to put people off thinking creatively, but I'm certain you haven't put a second of thought into the practicalities. Your plan is... psychedelic.
    Let"s see how this ends up.

    But, if Ukraine gets partitioned, and there are many years of instability & war, then Ukraine will be far worse off.

    Do the Palestinians deserve to be living in a tiny portion of the territory that they formerly occupied? No.

    Northern Cyprus is 1/3 of the island of Cyprus. Before the invasion of Cyprus, Turkish Cypriots were ~ 18 per cent of the population. Were Turkish Cypriots entitled to 33 per cent of the island? No.

    The boundary that is drawn by war will probably be worse for Ukraine.

    If you don't like my solution, come up with a better one (which obviously has to have some concessions to both sides).
    Make Russia bleed until it withdraws back to the 2021 lines of control. Wait for Putin to die and then open talks with his successor about renormalising relations.
    Right, so ... let it bleed.

    This does depend on when Putin dies, and who his successor is. Only then does the bleeding stop.

    But if Putin is reasonably long-lived and chooses his successor, then your proposal might actually end up maximising the sum total of human misery (Ukrainian & Russian) .
    Well, I could easily think of ways of increasing the misery if you asked me to, but no. I think this situation is inherently misery-inducing and all options are bad. But before we even get there, we have to ask what's possible.

    What's not possible:
    1 EU accession as a guarantor of peace
    2 Taking back Ukraine by force without bad consequences
    3 Regime change instigated from outwith without bad consequences

    So that leaves:
    4 Sit and hope that Putin changes his mind
    5 Continue to arm the resistance and take an opportunity for a negotiated conclusion if and when a trustworthy Russian leader emerges
    6 Give Ukraine up completely
    7 Pay the Danegeld (have Ukraine sign away occupied areas) and hope the Dane doesn't come back next year (despite Ukraine not being fully defended)

    And of uncertain possibility:
    8 Give up chunks of Ukraine and have the rest enter into a formal defence pact (NATO or adjunct)
    Good summary. 8 stands out in a 'least unpleasant person in a roomful of grizzlies' sort of way. If the priority is a settlement anytime soon, that is. Otherwise it's 5. That could be long term best but will likely involve a lot of suffering in the meantime.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    If the Afghans can maintain a resistance for 20 years despite little external support against the full weight of the US, then Ukrainians can maintain a resistance against a sanctioned Russia with the full resources of the West behind them.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,117
    edited March 2022
    Also, why did he phone him himself , out of the blue, when Lavrov also seems to be out there making all the running on his own steam ?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,857

    Why did Putin spend 90 minutes on a call with Macron? Sounds like he's very rattled.

    Swapping notes on which model of Swedish Penis Pump to buy?
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Aslan said:

    If the Afghans can maintain a resistance for 20 years despite little external support against the full weight of the US, then Ukrainians can maintain a resistance against a sanctioned Russia with the full resources of the West behind them.

    Or defending the West to the last Ukrainian, as its otherwise known
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,400
    felix said:

    Scott_xP said:

    SCOOP: Biden is poised to impose sanctions on a number of Russian oligarchs and their families TODAY, sources tell @nwadhams and me.
    The sanctions will be in keeping with EU measures but broader, prohibiting the oligarchs’ travel to US and also targeting their families.

    https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1499409767479091209

    Just the 'world-leading' UK lagging behind then.
    No shortage of 'useful idiots' here fanning the disunited allies meme so beloved of Putin.
    Silence the traitors!

    You don’t have a very good understanding of what is best about free and democratic countries have you?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    edited March 2022

    Hong Kong is currently experiencing a horrifying COVID-19 outbreak. The mortality rate is approaching the UK's peak in January 2021.

    Why, if Omicron is so much milder?

    Most of that mildness is really due to vaccination and Hong Kong has hugely failed to vaccinate older people.


    https://twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1499412424016994305

    South Korea taking a massive battering from COVID, including the PM reported today as having caught it. As well as New Zealand also seeing a big surge.
    Forget all national vanity etc. Please, FFS, any country out there - vaccinate all the old people, lots and lots of times. It bloody works.
    I do wonder about the 75 year old cut off for the 4th jab in the UK. I haven't been keeping up with the hospitalisation / death demographics, but if my memory serves me correctly somewhere around 60 is when you start to see the ramp up in poor outcomes.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,294

    Why did Putin spend 90 minutes on a call with Macron? Sounds like he's very rattled.

    Indeed. Although he seems to have taken the opportunity to double down.

    This is totally unpredictable.

    I’d love to get more of a feeling for opinion inside Russia. All the tweets about bank queues etc struck me as hopeful rather truly descriptive.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    felix said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    felix said:

    Scott_xP said:

    "Contrary to the prime minister’s claims to be leading the world in the economic response to the invasion of Ukraine, there is frustration among allies over the UK’s lethargy in hitting Russian wealth."
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/03/eu-urges-uk-to-act-faster-before-russian-assets-are-spirited-away

    Why aren’t they complaining about the US which is working to the same timetable as the U.K.?
    The Brexit wound has gone very deep .. is why.
    Says Spain to Jersey, like a couple of elderly eunuchs comparing notes on their favourite brothel

    Brexit was meant to mean we get things done quicker, because 1 vs 27, red tape, blah blah
    That's why I voted Remain.
    making your remark about Brexit look even more dim, then.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,294
    MISTY said:

    Aslan said:

    If the Afghans can maintain a resistance for 20 years despite little external support against the full weight of the US, then Ukrainians can maintain a resistance against a sanctioned Russia with the full resources of the West behind them.

    Or defending the West to the last Ukrainian, as its otherwise known
    What’s your alternative solution?
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Farooq said:

    MISTY said:

    Farooq said:

    MISTY said:

    The way to avoid getting nuked is surely to convey the impression to the enemy that, under the right circumstances and with the right provocation, you just might.

    An impression the great Ronald Reagan and blessed Lady Thatcher (PBUH) passed off with aplomb.

    By contrast, no government that with a policy of net zero carbon emissions by 2050 is ever going to fire a nuclear weapon. Ever. Under any circumstances. Putin knows that.

    So why are we kidding ourselves? We would never, ever use nuclear weapons, why not bin them and concentrate on conventionals?

    Oh shut the fuck up about environmentalism already
    Do you think there are any circumstances under which the UK ever could or should launch a nuclear weapon? any circumstances at all?


    Yes. Whenever you pop up I yearn for an all-consuming fireball,
    Seriously though, its important, should there not be a debate about the UK's nuclear deterrent? Its obvious we would never, ever use it. Why have it?

  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    Nigelb said:

    The default path now is an ongoing, bloody, grinding occupation of Ukraine, alongside the continued economic isolation of Russia.

    I think we in the West can keep that up indefinitely. It’s less clear:

    (1) how long Russia can keep up funding the war or manage the risk of regime collapse.
    (2) how long the Ukrainians can maintain their resistance.

    So long as (1) and (2) remain uncertain, the war continues.

    @YBarddCwsc’s proposed settlement makes sense, and is similar to what I’ve also said, but Putin and Zelensky are both still committed to their own maximalist position....

    That is to suggest an equivalence which doesn't exist.
    Zelensky is committed to Ukraine's survival as an independent nation. I wouldn't described that as maximalist.
    Not quite.
    Zelensky is committed to Ukraine’s survival as an independent nation, at pre-2014 borders, and as a member of both NATO and the EU.

    Perhaps maximalist is the wrong word, I am simply saying that at least for now Zelensky has not signalled any potential compromise position.
    And Zelensky is in the right. To rational people Russia has already lost and has an unwinnable situation on its hands. To Putin and the hardliners types, they will not mentally get there until the situation is rapidly turning against them at an accelerating rate. At that point, every week that goes past will reduce Russian leverage, so we should hold the line until full Ukrainian territory and sovereignty is accepted. That means the right to determine their own foreign policy.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Wait, the sclerotic EU is acting faster than the agile UK?

    EU urges UK to act faster before Russian assets are spirited away https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/03/eu-urges-uk-to-act-faster-before-russian-assets-are-spirited-away

    Surely not...

    Scotty reposting Eurozealot Guardian propaganda bullshit? Surely not...
    But is he wrong?
    The odds are very good.
    Why not examine the underlying question and decide on the merits?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    edited March 2022

    Why did Putin spend 90 minutes on a call with Macron? Sounds like he's very rattled.

    Maybe he is just very lonely and wants a chat with a friend.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,294
    MISTY said:

    Farooq said:

    MISTY said:

    Farooq said:

    MISTY said:

    The way to avoid getting nuked is surely to convey the impression to the enemy that, under the right circumstances and with the right provocation, you just might.

    An impression the great Ronald Reagan and blessed Lady Thatcher (PBUH) passed off with aplomb.

    By contrast, no government that with a policy of net zero carbon emissions by 2050 is ever going to fire a nuclear weapon. Ever. Under any circumstances. Putin knows that.

    So why are we kidding ourselves? We would never, ever use nuclear weapons, why not bin them and concentrate on conventionals?

    Oh shut the fuck up about environmentalism already
    Do you think there are any circumstances under which the UK ever could or should launch a nuclear weapon? any circumstances at all?


    Yes. Whenever you pop up I yearn for an all-consuming fireball,
    Seriously though, its important, should there not be a debate about the UK's nuclear deterrent? Its obvious we would never, ever use it. Why have it?

    Is that obvious?
    We’re using it right now. As a deterrent.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    MISTY said:

    Farooq said:

    MISTY said:

    Farooq said:

    MISTY said:

    The way to avoid getting nuked is surely to convey the impression to the enemy that, under the right circumstances and with the right provocation, you just might.

    An impression the great Ronald Reagan and blessed Lady Thatcher (PBUH) passed off with aplomb.

    By contrast, no government that with a policy of net zero carbon emissions by 2050 is ever going to fire a nuclear weapon. Ever. Under any circumstances. Putin knows that.

    So why are we kidding ourselves? We would never, ever use nuclear weapons, why not bin them and concentrate on conventionals?

    Oh shut the fuck up about environmentalism already
    Do you think there are any circumstances under which the UK ever could or should launch a nuclear weapon? any circumstances at all?


    Yes. Whenever you pop up I yearn for an all-consuming fireball,
    Seriously though, its important, should there not be a debate about the UK's nuclear deterrent? Its obvious we would never, ever use it. Why have it?

    Because the existence of it stops the Russians from using theirs.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,857
    UK cases by specimen date

    image
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Wait, the sclerotic EU is acting faster than the agile UK?

    EU urges UK to act faster before Russian assets are spirited away https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/03/eu-urges-uk-to-act-faster-before-russian-assets-are-spirited-away

    Surely not...

    Scotty reposting Eurozealot Guardian propaganda bullshit? Surely not...
    But is he wrong?
    The odds are very good.
    So you haven't really thought about it, you're just shooting the messenger.
    And he has nobody but himself to blame.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,857
    UK R

    image
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,922
    IshmaelZ said:

    Why not examine the underlying question and decide on the merits?

    LOL

    Are you new here?
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    MISTY said:

    Aslan said:

    If the Afghans can maintain a resistance for 20 years despite little external support against the full weight of the US, then Ukrainians can maintain a resistance against a sanctioned Russia with the full resources of the West behind them.

    Or defending the West to the last Ukrainian, as its otherwise known
    What’s your alternative solution?
    Give up to Daddy Vova. The guy is a Russian shill. Probably a different account from the other one that turned up and ran away with his tail between his legs because he was so humiliated.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,294

    Why did Putin spend 90 minutes on a call with Macron? Sounds like he's very rattled.

    Maybe he is just very lonely and wants a chat with a friend.
    I imagine they spent at least 80 minutes discussing that ABBA comeback before Macron finally signed and said, “Alors, what about this Ukraine sitch, then?”
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790
    edited March 2022

    Nigelb said:

    The default path now is an ongoing, bloody, grinding occupation of Ukraine, alongside the continued economic isolation of Russia.

    I think we in the West can keep that up indefinitely. It’s less clear:

    (1) how long Russia can keep up funding the war or manage the risk of regime collapse.
    (2) how long the Ukrainians can maintain their resistance.

    So long as (1) and (2) remain uncertain, the war continues.

    @YBarddCwsc’s proposed settlement makes sense, and is similar to what I’ve also said, but Putin and Zelensky are both still committed to their own maximalist position....

    That is to suggest an equivalence which doesn't exist.
    Zelensky is committed to Ukraine's survival as an independent nation. I wouldn't described that as maximalist.
    Not quite.
    Zelensky is committed to Ukraine’s survival as an independent nation, at pre-2014 borders, and as a member of both NATO and the EU.

    Perhaps maximalist is the wrong word, I am simply saying that at least for now Zelensky has not signalled any potential compromise position.
    He's said he's prepared to negotiate terms - but with a cease-fire, and without preconditions. Otherwise he's be in the position of negotiating away his country purely in exchange for a ceasefire.
    He's risked sending government ministers to Belarus (which given Russian treatment of negotiators in the past isn't nothing) to give opportunities for such talks.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,857
    Case summary

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  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,922

    I imagine they spent at least 80 minutes discussing that ABBA comeback

    Does a French President really want to talk about Waterloo?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited March 2022
    Mike, this was also the most LEAVE seat in Birmingham: 63% to 37%.

    I don't think it's a shoo-in for Labour.

    But Dave Nellist is standing which feels about right for being back in the Cold War days.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,857
    Hospitals

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,857
    Deaths

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  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,717

    Why did Putin spend 90 minutes on a call with Macron? Sounds like he's very rattled.

    Maybe he is just very lonely and wants a chat with a friend.
    I imagine they spent at least 80 minutes discussing that ABBA comeback before Macron finally signed and said, “Alors, what about this Ukraine sitch, then?”
    10 mins Chit Chat
    15 mins Ukraine
    20 mins Sanctions
    20 mins Is Boris actually fat or just very muscular
    25 mins Pineapple on pizza, yes or no
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    Hong Kong is currently experiencing a horrifying COVID-19 outbreak. The mortality rate is approaching the UK's peak in January 2021.

    Why, if Omicron is so much milder?

    Most of that mildness is really due to vaccination and Hong Kong has hugely failed to vaccinate older people.


    https://twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1499412424016994305

    is it a frailer to vaccinate older people or because the chines vaccine dose not work very well?

    that's a questioned, I don't know, it may be a bit of both?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    @nexta_tv⚡️⚡️Zelensky to Putin: Get off our land

    "If you don't want to leave now - sit down with me at the negotiating table, I'm free. But not by 30 meters, like with Macron, Scholz - I'm a neighbor! I don't bite. I'm a normal man, sit down with me, talk to me, what are you afraid of?"


    https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1499418527069093890
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,797

    Leon said:

    We may as well accept it, there are no good outcomes to this that don't involve the overthorw of Putin. It may take months or years but the West should keep up the economic pressure on Russia until it happens.

    No 'deal' that sees Ukrain giving up part of its territory should be brooked whist Putin is still in charge imo - and 'guarantee' he offers about Ukraine's future will be worthless.

    And what if Putin says ‘if I don’t get my way in Ukraine I will nuke Lviv, killing 1m people’

    What can we do then? We are not going to all-out nuclear war with Russia over Ukraine. It’s that simple. And Putin knows it, hence his barely veiled threats of nuke war. The menace is present

    In the end he will get what he wants in Ukraine

    The big problem with nuclear weapons and the theory of deterrence was the reliance on everyone acting rationally. The unspoken fear was always: what happens if someone mad gets hold of them. We always presumed that meant terrorists, willing to die for religion or whatever

    Turns out it’s worse than that. It’s the president of Russia and he has 6,000 warheads, not just 1 in a briefcase

    Oh, I quite accept he may for a time get the whole of Ukraine, but there should be no let up on the economic sanctions. From all I have heard the Russian economy cannot last long in the current climate.

    Agreeing a settlement with Putin will be a sham, and he will soon be on to the next target.

    The Chinese have a role to play here too. Whilst they would have been happy to see the West divided and the US 'knocked off its perch', economic meltdown and, even more, nuclear war does them no good at all. If the west plus China cannot constrain Russia now then we may as well give up, because nothing will.
    I think China will be very satisfied with the situation. Its making them look like the adults in the room, it's giving them a desperate trading partner to sell them lots of cheap gas, and buy lots of manufactured goods, it's weakening a potential future geopolitical rival.
    Chinese have been playing the long game for the past 20 years. And its working out very well for them.
    I doubt they are very comfortable. The west is united like never before and a useful ally is becoming a pariah state. By the way Russia can't just sell the gas to China. All the infrastructure is set up to transport to Europe.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,857
    Age related

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  • felixfelix Posts: 15,162
    Scott_xP said:

    felix said:

    Anyone would think you had another agenda completely unrelated to the Ukraine.

    And what is your agenda?

    You can't refute the facts. Even PJohnson was more convincing...
    The grauniad and facts - interesting topic for debate. Unlike you I've never posted fake Covid stats to make the EU look better that the UK. That one I will never forget.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    edited March 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Applicant said:

    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Wait, the sclerotic EU is acting faster than the agile UK?

    EU urges UK to act faster before Russian assets are spirited away https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/03/eu-urges-uk-to-act-faster-before-russian-assets-are-spirited-away

    Surely not...

    Scotty reposting Eurozealot Guardian propaganda bullshit? Surely not...
    But is he wrong?
    The odds are very good.
    Why not examine the underlying question and decide on the merits?
    Because the underlying question is "EU official is moaning about the UK". Well, durr. Of course they are. If we were doing the exact opposite, they would still be moaning, the Guardian would still be reporting it uncritically and Scotty would still be reposting it here...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,922
    They speak neither Russian nor Ukrainian, and have no contacts on Ukrainian soil — some had never even heard of the country itself until war broke out.

    But a growing number of French nationals are joining Ukraine’s fight against the Russian invasion.


    https://bit.ly/35qcyMU
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,162

    felix said:

    Scott_xP said:

    SCOOP: Biden is poised to impose sanctions on a number of Russian oligarchs and their families TODAY, sources tell @nwadhams and me.
    The sanctions will be in keeping with EU measures but broader, prohibiting the oligarchs’ travel to US and also targeting their families.

    https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1499409767479091209

    Just the 'world-leading' UK lagging behind then.
    No shortage of 'useful idiots' here fanning the disunited allies meme so beloved of Putin.
    Silence the traitors!

    You don’t have a very good understanding of what is best about free and democratic countries have you?
    One good one is to accept and respect a democratic vote - even when it goes against you.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,294
    Scott_xP said:

    I imagine they spent at least 80 minutes discussing that ABBA comeback

    Does a French President really want to talk about Waterloo?
    The French, due to cognitive dissonance, believe that song is simply about a history teacher called Napoleon at Waterloo Station and an affair gone sour.

    Putin mentioned “Does Your Mother Know?”, and Macron took that to be a jibe at his wife and slammed the phone down.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,922
    Exclusive new poll:

    - Most Brits (54%) say Johnson should resign
    - Two-thirds (66%) say his war response hasn't changed their view of him
    - 84% didn't go to a party under restrictions
    - 88% didn't socialise at work with colleagues under restrictions


    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/polling/2022/03/exclusive-polling-most-brits-still-want-boris-johnson-to-resign
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    Why did Putin spend 90 minutes on a call with Macron? Sounds like he's very rattled.

    Excellent point. What if it turns out Putin is actually sane, but has just miscalculated massively?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,117
    edited March 2022

    @nexta_tv⚡️⚡️Zelensky to Putin: Get off our land

    "If you don't want to leave now - sit down with me at the negotiating table, I'm free. But not by 30 meters, like with Macron, Scholz - I'm a neighbor! I don't bite. I'm a normal man, sit down with me, talk to me, what are you afraid of?"


    https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1499418527069093890

    "If you don't want to leave now" ? Is this some sort of miscontextualisation or mistranslation of his story about sitting down together man-to-man, which looks most likely, or something else ?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,441
    ….

    Why did Putin spend 90 minutes on a call with Macron? Sounds like he's very rattled.

    Maybe he is just very lonely and wants a chat with a friend.
    I imagine they spent at least 80 minutes discussing that ABBA comeback before Macron finally signed and said, “Alors, what about this Ukraine sitch, then?”
    Maybe - if so it was likely a puntastic event:

    Vlad “this will not be my Waterloo”

    Manny “well Vlad let’s see, as the Winner takes it all”

    Vlad “ I will send in my Supertroopers”

    Manny “we will stop you - Ukraine has sent us an SOS”

    Vlad “I don’t care what THEY want, just Gimme Gimme Gimme”

    And on ad infinitum……

    Sorry….
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Aslan said:

    If the Afghans can maintain a resistance for 20 years despite little external support against the full weight of the US, then Ukrainians can maintain a resistance against a sanctioned Russia with the full resources of the West behind them.

    As one of the Taliban observed “you may have the watches, but we have the time”.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,400
    felix said:

    felix said:

    Scott_xP said:

    SCOOP: Biden is poised to impose sanctions on a number of Russian oligarchs and their families TODAY, sources tell @nwadhams and me.
    The sanctions will be in keeping with EU measures but broader, prohibiting the oligarchs’ travel to US and also targeting their families.

    https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1499409767479091209

    Just the 'world-leading' UK lagging behind then.
    No shortage of 'useful idiots' here fanning the disunited allies meme so beloved of Putin.
    Silence the traitors!

    You don’t have a very good understanding of what is best about free and democratic countries have you?
    One good one is to accept and respect a democratic vote - even when it goes against you.
    Another is the right to voice our opinion and questions peacefully without being bullied or disappearing in the night.

    Can we at least ask if Dominic Raab has given back the £25K of dirrrrty Putin money yet, without shattering the Western Alliance and blacklisted as Putin’s idiotic helper and traitor?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781

    Why did Putin spend 90 minutes on a call with Macron? Sounds like he's very rattled.

    Maybe he is just very lonely and wants a chat with a friend.
    I imagine they spent at least 80 minutes discussing that ABBA comeback before Macron finally signed and said, “Alors, what about this Ukraine sitch, then?”
    10 mins Chit Chat
    15 mins Ukraine
    20 mins Sanctions
    20 mins Is Boris actually fat or just very muscular
    25 mins Pineapple on pizza, yes or no
    Definitely the later 2 points, after Vlad has been given intelligence reports that the British are extremely split on these issues...apparently based upon reading some obscure betting forum.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    BigRich said:

    Hong Kong is currently experiencing a horrifying COVID-19 outbreak. The mortality rate is approaching the UK's peak in January 2021.

    Why, if Omicron is so much milder?

    Most of that mildness is really due to vaccination and Hong Kong has hugely failed to vaccinate older people.


    https://twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1499412424016994305

    is it a frailer to vaccinate older people or because the chines vaccine dose not work very well?

    that's a questioned, I don't know, it may be a bit of both?
    Both. Their vaccination program has been a complete shambles. They tried to do the 'zero-Covid' thing, with draconian restrictions and quarantines, which worked for a while, but they utterly squandered that potential advantage by failing to vaccinate the vulnerable properly. And they got tangled up in ideologically favouring Chinese vaccines, one at least of which is pretty useless. Now Omicron is ripping through the population and they don't have much immunity.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,857
    COVID Summary

    - Cases seem to be levelling off for the moment. There is an interesting change in the age profile, with the oldest group going back above one. This is a very small number of people, so it doesn't effect overall R very much. BUT

    image

    - The admissions numbers have gone up, as one would expect. Vaccinations help, but these groups are more vulnerable.

    image

    - In hospital seems to be returning to a downward trend after the bump around the 28th
    - MV beds likewise
    - Deaths still heading down.

    image
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790
    MISTY said:

    Farooq said:

    MISTY said:

    Farooq said:

    MISTY said:

    The way to avoid getting nuked is surely to convey the impression to the enemy that, under the right circumstances and with the right provocation, you just might.

    An impression the great Ronald Reagan and blessed Lady Thatcher (PBUH) passed off with aplomb.

    By contrast, no government that with a policy of net zero carbon emissions by 2050 is ever going to fire a nuclear weapon. Ever. Under any circumstances. Putin knows that.

    So why are we kidding ourselves? We would never, ever use nuclear weapons, why not bin them and concentrate on conventionals?

    Oh shut the fuck up about environmentalism already
    Do you think there are any circumstances under which the UK ever could or should launch a nuclear weapon? any circumstances at all?


    Yes. Whenever you pop up I yearn for an all-consuming fireball,
    Seriously though, its important, should there not be a debate about the UK's nuclear deterrent? Its obvious we would never, ever use it. Why have it?

    Even if that were a question for debate, right now is about the most stupid time possible to raise it.

    What's your reason ?

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    edited March 2022
    felix said:

    Scott_xP said:

    felix said:

    Anyone would think you had another agenda completely unrelated to the Ukraine.

    And what is your agenda?

    You can't refute the facts. Even PJohnson was more convincing...
    That one I will never forget.
    Oh come now felix, this does come across as a little pompous. And I don't think you're really in a position to claim the moral high ground over Scott and neither is your party.

    Covid has been tough for everyone and statistics, well, you know what they say about them.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,922
    Vladimir Putin being boxed in first by Nick Clegg and now Danny Alexander https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1499420079192256514
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,712
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Chameleon said:

    The oligarchs stir...

    #BREAKING Russian oil giant Lukoil calls for halt to Ukraine war

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1499410431726731271

    That feels significant, even hopeful. Russian business people don’t want to end up like starving North Koreans. Nor do they want to die of radiation poisoning
    He might be mad enough to try a Stalinist purge of any of the elite who oppose him.
    No might about it. I am sure he would. He knows that if he falls he is quite unlikely to get a pleasant retirement. He is said to be obsessed with the videos of Gaddafi’s final moments: beaten, sodomised, then butchered.
    Sodomised only with a bayonet, mind.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,162

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Scott_xP said:

    SCOOP: Biden is poised to impose sanctions on a number of Russian oligarchs and their families TODAY, sources tell @nwadhams and me.
    The sanctions will be in keeping with EU measures but broader, prohibiting the oligarchs’ travel to US and also targeting their families.

    https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1499409767479091209

    Just the 'world-leading' UK lagging behind then.
    No shortage of 'useful idiots' here fanning the disunited allies meme so beloved of Putin.
    Silence the traitors!

    You don’t have a very good understanding of what is best about free and democratic countries have you?
    One good one is to accept and respect a democratic vote - even when it goes against you.
    Another is the right to voice our opinion and questions peacefully without being bullied or disappearing in the night.

    Can we at least ask if Dominic Raab has given back the £25K of dirrrrty Putin money yet, without shattering the Western Alliance and blacklisted as Putin’s idiotic helper and traitor?
    Lol - that 'useful idiot' jibe has clearly hit a nerve.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,999

    " Putin is said to have told Mr Macron in a 90-minute call that he had no plans to stop the invasion, will continue until he takes the whole of Ukraine, and may then add extra security demands on top of the ones he had already sent to the US and NATO. The attack will continue 'without compromises' until 'the end', Putin said."

    Very odd, becasuse this is completely the opposite direction of travel from Lavrov, both apparently in rhetoric and demands. Either it's the world's highest-stakes game of good-cop-bad-cop, as Luckyguy mentions, or we could be looking at some sort of regime split.

    Given the other signs of public dissent here and there, I think it's most likely the latter.

    Just trying to confuse us all.
    Putin is just engaging in anchoring.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Reposting this as it got lost in Malmsebury's excellent, but somewhat voluminous, covid update.

    On topic: Erdington was also the most LEAVE seat in Birmingham: 63% to 37%.

    I don't think it's a shoo-in for Labour.

    But Dave Nellist is standing which feels about right for being back in the Cold War days.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    felix said:

    Scott_xP said:

    felix said:

    Anyone would think you had another agenda completely unrelated to the Ukraine.

    And what is your agenda?

    You can't refute the facts. Even PJohnson was more convincing...
    The grauniad and facts - interesting topic for debate. Unlike you I've never posted fake Covid stats to make the EU look better that the UK. That one I will never forget.
    Surely even you can see what an embarrassingly inadequate answer that is?

    Here is the story in your publication of choice

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10572679/Fury-Roman-Abramovich-oligarchs-offload-billions-assets-without-facing-sanctions.html

    Now: ignoring the Guardian and Scott and me, do you think the UK is lagging in imposing sanctions? If so why do you think this is, and do you think this is a satisfactory state of affairs?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,999
    MISTY said:

    The way to avoid getting nuked is surely to convey the impression to the enemy that, under the right circumstances and with the right provocation, you just might.

    An impression the great Ronald Reagan and blessed Lady Thatcher (PBUH) passed off with aplomb.

    By contrast, no government that with a policy of net zero carbon emissions by 2050 is ever going to fire a nuclear weapon. Ever. Under any circumstances. Putin knows that.

    So why are we kidding ourselves? We would never, ever use nuclear weapons, why not bin them and concentrate on conventionals?

    Laughable.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,905
    A depressing and challenging thread. We might be making it WORSE for Ukraine by encouraging resistance, which will be met with annihilation


    ‘It may sound paradoxical from the outside, but Russia's *tactical defeats* now make *strategic victory* imperative.

    To preserve Russia's aspiration to be a superpower, there must be no doubt at the end of the war who the victor was.

    It must be Russia. By a crushing margin.’

    https://twitter.com/clintehrlich/status/1499282732307779587?s=21

    A thread worth reading, even if you despise the thesis
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,400
    felix said:

    Scott_xP said:

    felix said:

    Anyone would think you had another agenda completely unrelated to the Ukraine.

    And what is your agenda?

    You can't refute the facts. Even PJohnson was more convincing...
    The grauniad and facts - interesting topic for debate. Unlike you I've never posted fake Covid stats to make the EU look better that the UK. That one I will never forget.
    I agree Felix, I wouldn’t assume it’s fact.

    A legitimate question from opposition benches in parliament though (with government front bench obliged to answer honestly) is it going so slow allowing them to escape their assets before the doors are locked?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Scott_xP said:

    SCOOP: Biden is poised to impose sanctions on a number of Russian oligarchs and their families TODAY, sources tell @nwadhams and me.
    The sanctions will be in keeping with EU measures but broader, prohibiting the oligarchs’ travel to US and also targeting their families.

    https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1499409767479091209

    Just the 'world-leading' UK lagging behind then.
    No shortage of 'useful idiots' here fanning the disunited allies meme so beloved of Putin.
    Silence the traitors!

    You don’t have a very good understanding of what is best about free and democratic countries have you?
    One good one is to accept and respect a democratic vote - even when it goes against you.
    Another is the right to voice our opinion and questions peacefully without being bullied or disappearing in the night.

    Can we at least ask if Dominic Raab has given back the £25K of dirrrrty Putin money yet, without shattering the Western Alliance and blacklisted as Putin’s idiotic helper and traitor?
    And another £80,000 of Russian dirty money into tory coffers this last month:

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tories-pocket-80000-russian-born-26366943

    Stinking dirty tory Russian money
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Moldova president signs application to join the European Union, following Georgia and Ukraine

    https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1499419869409861640
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,999

    Leon said:

    We may as well accept it, there are no good outcomes to this that don't involve the overthorw of Putin. It may take months or years but the West should keep up the economic pressure on Russia until it happens.

    No 'deal' that sees Ukrain giving up part of its territory should be brooked whist Putin is still in charge imo - and 'guarantee' he offers about Ukraine's future will be worthless.

    And what if Putin says ‘if I don’t get my way in Ukraine I will nuke Lviv, killing 1m people’

    What can we do then? We are not going to all-out nuclear war with Russia over Ukraine. It’s that simple. And Putin knows it, hence his barely veiled threats of nuke war. The menace is present

    In the end he will get what he wants in Ukraine

    The big problem with nuclear weapons and the theory of deterrence was the reliance on everyone acting rationally. The unspoken fear was always: what happens if someone mad gets hold of them. We always presumed that meant terrorists, willing to die for religion or whatever

    Turns out it’s worse than that. It’s the president of Russia and he has 6,000 warheads, not just 1 in a briefcase

    Oh, I quite accept he may for a time get the whole of Ukraine, but there should be no let up on the economic sanctions. From all I have heard the Russian economy cannot last long in the current climate.

    Agreeing a settlement with Putin will be a sham, and he will soon be on to the next target.

    The Chinese have a role to play here too. Whilst they would have been happy to see the West divided and the US 'knocked off its perch', economic meltdown and, even more, nuclear war does them no good at all. If the west plus China cannot constrain Russia now then we may as well give up, because nothing will.
    I think China will be very satisfied with the situation. Its making them look like the adults in the room, it's giving them a desperate trading partner to sell them lots of cheap gas, and buy lots of manufactured goods, it's weakening a potential future geopolitical rival.
    It's a bit more complicated than that. Russia can't suddenly replace the EU with China as a market for its gas because there's only one (pretty small) pipe in existence today. They're planning a second, but it would still only be half the capacity of the original Nord Stream, and is due to be ready in 2028 (so probably more like 2030).

    So, the idea that Russia can turn on a dime, and switch gas exports to China is for the birds.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,979
    edited March 2022

    kle4 said:

    I'm always fascinated at being told how long leaders spoke for on the phone. Apparently Macron and Putin spoke for 90 minutes. Even assuming some delays for translations, what on earth did they spend all that time talking about?

    Putin thinks that if he can just explain Lenin's mistake on the nationalities policy one more time, Macron will understand why the war is right...
    In fairness I doubt he's used to people admitting they don't understand or do not agree with his original stance. Not more than once, anyway.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,270

    The fecking brass neck of this!!!!

    BBC Politics
    @BBCPolitics
    ·
    4h
    "I'd just like to offer my heartfelt thanks and admiration to all of those journalists... who are risking their lives to bring us unbiased and accurate news from a live warzone"

    Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries gives an emotional tribute to journalists


    ===

    Two weeks ago it was all about how shit the BBC is and how its funding model has to end.

    The BBC have been reasonably well behaved during the war. The 10 O'Clock news edited Daria's speech removing "the you are too scared to come to Ukraine" bit. ITN and Sky were less compliant.

    Defund ITV and Sky...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,922
    EU states have seized assets

    The UK has not

    If someone is cheerleading the UK government letting oligarchs off the hook, are they useful, or just an idiot?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,922
    #Moldova applies for #EU membership - President Maia Sandu. https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1499417067732221957/photo/1
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    In contrast to MISTY I think we should square up to Putin, declare a no fly zone, bomb the Russian convoys and give our undying support to Ukraine.

    If that risks nuclear war it's too bad.

    If we let Putin get away with this, which he currently is, then we should hang our heads in shame.

    I reckon Maggie would've put the little shit back in his box.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,707
    DEATH PROBE Russian tycoon Mikhail Watford found hanged in one of Britain’s most prestigious estates days after Ukraine invasion
    ...
    Police are probing the death with the “utmost seriousness” amid fears he could have been on a hit list. Moscow has been linked to a number of exile deaths in Britain.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/17825236/mikhail-watford-russian-invasion-ukraine/
  • Scott_xP said:

    EU states have seized assets

    The UK has not

    If someone is cheerleading the UK government letting oligarchs off the hook, are they useful, or just an idiot?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/03/03/boris-johnson-news-ukraine-war-russia-liz-truss-raab/
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    Scott_xP said:

    #Moldova applies for #EU membership - President Maia Sandu. https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1499417067732221957/photo/1

    No doubt about, Putin is a geopolitical genius.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Scott_xP said:

    EU states have seized assets

    The UK has not

    If someone is cheerleading the UK government letting oligarchs off the hook, are they useful, or just an idiot?

    Quite

    Once again Boris has talked the talk but failed to deliver.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,294
    edited March 2022

    Moldova president signs application to join the European Union, following Georgia and Ukraine

    https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1499419869409861640

    That’s amazing.

    It’s clear that EU is seen as - not NATO, but the next best thing.

    Good news for EU fans.

    An opportunity - if you squint - for the UK to help set up a coherent economic architecture for countries outside or perhaps not yet in the EU. EFTA 2.0 sort of thing.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,712

    Nigelb said:

    The default path now is an ongoing, bloody, grinding occupation of Ukraine, alongside the continued economic isolation of Russia.

    I think we in the West can keep that up indefinitely. It’s less clear:

    (1) how long Russia can keep up funding the war or manage the risk of regime collapse.
    (2) how long the Ukrainians can maintain their resistance.

    So long as (1) and (2) remain uncertain, the war continues.

    @YBarddCwsc’s proposed settlement makes sense, and is similar to what I’ve also said, but Putin and Zelensky are both still committed to their own maximalist position....

    That is to suggest an equivalence which doesn't exist.
    Zelensky is committed to Ukraine's survival as an independent nation. I wouldn't described that as maximalist.
    Not quite.
    Zelensky is committed to Ukraine’s survival as an independent nation, at pre-2014 borders, and as a member of both NATO and the EU.

    Perhaps maximalist is the wrong word, I am simply saying that at least for now Zelensky has not signalled any potential compromise position.
    His country has been invaded by a hostile power. Why should he compromise?
This discussion has been closed.