Sadly, I think Putin could drop a nuke on Lviv; and China will just call for de-escalation and a peaceful resolution to the conflict. The best way out of this is a revolution in Russia.
What have I to report? I have spoken to my mum and dad. My mum likes Nadine Dorries and thinks she’s doing a brilliant job. That’s not surprising. My dad not 100% sure the Snake Island thing happened like was said so they are not all dead, surprised me. But good news if true. My brother thinks he can rebuild Ukraine single handedly and become a Oligarch once Putin is beaten out. That bits not surprising.
Another week in life of Jade 26 1/2. Feels like a crap year so far. 😞
The default path now is an ongoing, bloody, grinding occupation of Ukraine, alongside the continued economic isolation of Russia.
I think we in the West can keep that up indefinitely. It’s less clear:
(1) how long Russia can keep up funding the war or manage the risk of regime collapse. (2) how long the Ukrainians can maintain their resistance.
So long as (1) and (2) remain uncertain, the war continues.
@YBarddCwsc’s proposed settlement makes sense, and is similar to what I’ve also said, but Putin and Zelensky are both still committed to their own maximalist position.
We also in the West might find a partition settlement less satisfactory than we might have a week ago, because we lack a guarantee that - essentially - Putin is not going to go even more nuts and invade the Baltics etc.
Therefore, if militarily neutral Ukraine is part of the equation, we also need some kind of military forebearance commmitment from Russia.
I hope we (the US, or perhaps France) are activating our back channels with China. I think this whole shitshow is being looked on with horror by Beijing and they are in a position to pressure Russia toward a deal.
Given that Ukraine's position is "we want our country intact" and Putin's is "I want to steal it", drawing an equivalence between the two is appalling bothsidesism.
SCOOP: Biden is poised to impose sanctions on a number of Russian oligarchs and their families TODAY, sources tell @nwadhams and me. The sanctions will be in keeping with EU measures but broader, prohibiting the oligarchs’ travel to US and also targeting their families. https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1499409767479091209
Just the 'world-leading' UK lagging behind then.
No shortage of 'useful idiots' here fanning the disunited allies meme so beloved of Putin.
We may as well accept it, there are no good outcomes to this that don't involve the overthorw of Putin. It may take months or years but the West should keep up the economic pressure on Russia until it happens.
No 'deal' that sees Ukrain giving up part of its territory should be brooked whist Putin is still in charge imo - and 'guarantee' he offers about Ukraine's future will be worthless.
And what if Putin says ‘if I don’t get my way in Ukraine I will nuke Lviv, killing 1m people’
What can we do then? We are not going to all-out nuclear war with Russia over Ukraine. It’s that simple. And Putin knows it, hence his barely veiled threats of nuke war. The menace is present
In the end he will get what he wants in Ukraine
The big problem with nuclear weapons and the theory of deterrence was the reliance on everyone acting rationally. The unspoken fear was always: what happens if someone mad gets hold of them. We always presumed that meant terrorists, willing to die for religion or whatever
Turns out it’s worse than that. It’s the president of Russia and he has 6,000 warheads, not just 1 in a briefcase
Oh, I quite accept he may for a time get the whole of Ukraine, but there should be no let up on the economic sanctions. From all I have heard the Russian economy cannot last long in the current climate.
Agreeing a settlement with Putin will be a sham, and he will soon be on to the next target.
The Chinese have a role to play here too. Whilst they would have been happy to see the West divided and the US 'knocked off its perch', economic meltdown and, even more, nuclear war does them no good at all. If the west plus China cannot constrain Russia now then we may as well give up, because nothing will.
I think China will be very satisfied with the situation. Its making them look like the adults in the room, it's giving them a desperate trading partner to sell them lots of cheap gas, and buy lots of manufactured goods, it's weakening a potential future geopolitical rival.
Chinese have been playing the long game for the past 20 years. And its working out very well for them.
The way to avoid getting nuked is surely to convey the impression to the enemy that, under the right circumstances and with the right provocation, you just might.
An impression the great Ronald Reagan and blessed Lady Thatcher (PBUH) passed off with aplomb.
By contrast, no government that with a policy of net zero carbon emissions by 2050 is ever going to fire a nuclear weapon. Ever. Under any circumstances. Putin knows that.
So why are we kidding ourselves? We would never, ever use nuclear weapons, why not bin them and concentrate on conventionals?
Oh shut the fuck up about environmentalism already
If polling is right, Labour should expect a large swing?
It will get a swing but likely less so than nationally as Erdington was 63% Leave. There has been less swing in the polls of Tory Leave voters to Starmer Labour since 2019 compared to Tory Remain voters.
The former were more likely to be voting for Boris and Brexit, the latter more against Corbyn
I agree with you. The fact that Labours MP was popular may have disguised how it’s a leave seat not a Labour seat and how popular and strong the Tories are in the midlands. Plus Labour have picked a poor candidate. They appear to be too complacent about this election. Both those things predict a poor result everyone can say is a surprise but shouldn’t be really, as poor candidate and complacency mean labour lose votes to not just Tories but Libdems and TUC. Plus with our country at war it could make the electorate more unpredictable, why not a rally round flag bounce for Tories? I wouldn’t be hugely surprised to wake up to find Tories have won.
God I hope not. That would nail Pig Dog in place for a decade
" Putin is said to have told Mr Macron in a 90-minute call that he had no plans to stop the invasion, will continue until he takes the whole of Ukraine, and may then add extra security demands on top of the ones he had already sent to the US and NATO. The attack will continue 'without compromises' until 'the end', Putin said."
Very odd, becasuse this is completely the opposite direction of travel from Lavrov, both apparently in terms of rhetoric and demands. Either it's the world's highest-stakes game of good-cop-bad-cop, as Luckyguy mentions, or we could be looking at some sort of regime split.
Given the other signs of increasing public dissent here and there, I think it's most likely the latter.
It sounds as though he's just coming clean on what was his original plan.
BBC Politics @BBCPolitics · 4h "I'd just like to offer my heartfelt thanks and admiration to all of those journalists... who are risking their lives to bring us unbiased and accurate news from a live warzone"
Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries gives an emotional tribute to journalists
===
Two weeks ago it was all about how shit the BBC is and how its funding model has to end.
The default path now is an ongoing, bloody, grinding occupation of Ukraine, alongside the continued economic isolation of Russia.
I think we in the West can keep that up indefinitely. It’s less clear:
(1) how long Russia can keep up funding the war or manage the risk of regime collapse. (2) how long the Ukrainians can maintain their resistance.
So long as (1) and (2) remain uncertain, the war continues.
@YBarddCwsc’s proposed settlement makes sense, and is similar to what I’ve also said, but Putin and Zelensky are both still committed to their own maximalist position....
That is to suggest an equivalence which doesn't exist. Zelensky is committed to Ukraine's survival as an independent nation. I wouldn't described that as maximalist.
South Korea taking a massive battering from COVID, including the PM reported today as having caught it. As well as New Zealand also seeing a big surge.
Thought. If we can get Zelenskyy and all his government out to US, they can carry on being legitimate Ukraine government, carry on negotiating EU membership, NATO membership, acting like a government in waiting making fight back even more likely?
DONT LET THEM DIE
Be like person who grabbed De Gaul and man handled him onto plane
" Putin is said to have told Mr Macron in a 90-minute call that he had no plans to stop the invasion, will continue until he takes the whole of Ukraine, and may then add extra security demands on top of the ones he had already sent to the US and NATO. The attack will continue 'without compromises' until 'the end', Putin said."
Very odd, becasuse this is completely the opposite direction of travel from Lavrov, both apparently in terms of rhetoric and demands. Either it's the world's highest-stakes game of good-cop-bad-cop, as Luckyguy mentions, or we could be looking at some sort of regime split.
Given the other signs of increasing public dissent here and there, I think it's most likely the latter.
It sounds as though he's just coming clean on what was his original plan.
Maybe he is, but other people may be up to something different, I think.
If he did say that he would take the whole of Ukraine and wouldn't stop until the job was done I hope he was told that he didn't have a cat in hell's chance of achieving that, we'll be supporting a resistance/government in exile for as long as necessary and his economy will be a basket case in the very near future
The door of one of the central cafes in Lviv (counter of loss of the occupiers on the paper). A few days ago waiters asked customers to show their covid certificate before entering. Now they ask to show a passport. https://twitter.com/KSergatskova/status/1499415564963487745/photo/1
What have I to report? I have spoken to my mum and dad. My mum likes Nadine Dorries and thinks she’s doing a brilliant job. That’s not surprising. My dad not 100% sure the Snake Island thing happened like was said so they are not all dead, surprised me. But good news if true. My brother thinks he can rebuild Ukraine single handedly and become a Oligarch once Putin is beaten out. That bits not surprising.
Another week in life of Jade 26 1/2. Feels like a crap year so far. 😞
The only utterly unbelievable thing there is the bit about Dorries.
There should be an emergency act passed (overnight sitting) to seize all Russian owned assets worth above a certain amount and to hold them in trust for 12 months. Subsequent legislation can set up process for returning some (say to opposition or relatively neutral figures) and confiscating the rest and distributing funds for Ukraine rebuild or whatever.
The way to avoid getting nuked is surely to convey the impression to the enemy that, under the right circumstances and with the right provocation, you just might.
An impression the great Ronald Reagan and blessed Lady Thatcher (PBUH) passed off with aplomb.
By contrast, no government that with a policy of net zero carbon emissions by 2050 is ever going to fire a nuclear weapon. Ever. Under any circumstances. Putin knows that.
So why are we kidding ourselves? We would never, ever use nuclear weapons, why not bin them and concentrate on conventionals?
Oh shut the fuck up about environmentalism already
Do you think there are any circumstances under which the UK ever could or should launch a nuclear weapon? any circumstances at all?
Alexander Stubb @alexstubb A ten point THREAD on the situation from a country with a 1340km border with Russia:
1. The security threat is real. Putin wants to take over Ukraine, revamp the security structure of Europe & keep Finland & Sweden out of Nato. We must assume that his actions have no limits.
South Korea taking a massive battering from COVID, including the PM reported today as having caught it. As well as New Zealand also seeing a big surge.
Forget all national vanity etc. Please, FFS, any country out there - vaccinate all the old people, lots and lots of times. It bloody works.
The default path now is an ongoing, bloody, grinding occupation of Ukraine, alongside the continued economic isolation of Russia.
I think we in the West can keep that up indefinitely. It’s less clear:
(1) how long Russia can keep up funding the war or manage the risk of regime collapse. (2) how long the Ukrainians can maintain their resistance.
So long as (1) and (2) remain uncertain, the war continues.
@YBarddCwsc’s proposed settlement makes sense, and is similar to what I’ve also said, but Putin and Zelensky are both still committed to their own maximalist position....
That is to suggest an equivalence which doesn't exist. Zelensky is committed to Ukraine's survival as an independent nation. I wouldn't described that as maximalist.
Not quite. Zelensky is committed to Ukraine’s survival as an independent nation, at pre-2014 borders, and as a member of both NATO and the EU.
Perhaps maximalist is the wrong word, I am simply saying that at least for now Zelensky has not signalled any potential compromise position.
"Russia's negotiating position - according to the country's foreign minister Sergey Lavrov - is that:
- Ukraine must "demilitarise" and "deNazify" - Crimea - Ukraine's southern peninsula annexed by Moscow in 2014 - is recognised by Kyiv as part of Russia - Two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine - self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic are formally recognised." (Source: BBC)
I'd say Ukraine could give up Crimea & Luhansk/Donetsk in return for Russia relinquishing all further territorial claims in Ukraine and for Russia accepting Ukraine can join the EU in due course.
Crimea has a Russian majority. Luhansk/Donetsk I really don't know -- but if they can get an acknowledgment that the rest of the Ukraine is not Russian, then it is surely worth it (cf Karelia & Finland).
The danger now is a de facto boundary is established by war that is actually much worse for Ukraine. Once population movements start (cf Northern Cyprus, Palestine), they can be very difficult to undo.
The territorial integrity of Ukraine (minus Crimea & Luhansk/Donetsk) would then need formal guarantees from the international community.
I expect my solution is hugely unpopular on pb,com -- but the Palestinians by repeatedly asking for almost everything have ended up with almost nothing.
If you 'demilitarise' what stops a later Russian coup?
I think there would have to be safeguards for Ukraine's democracy-- maybe immediate admission to the EU for the Ukraine? (Not really for us to say, as we are no longer in the EU, I agree).
So, then, Ukraine ends up with almost all of its present territory, and in the EU asap.
And Russia ends up with Crimea (which Ukraine has no real claim to) and two depressed post-industrial territories.
I think Ukraine would then have got a good deal, actually.
Sadly, what I think is going to happen is Ukraine is going to be partitioned. And population movements will entrench the de facto boundary.
So we should, in fact, by saying "thank you, Mr Putin!"
And what about accession processes and criteria? What about the veto each EU country has on admitting new members? I guess this is why Putin has such long tables, because the sheer number of people you'd need to have sitting around a table to thrash out your "deal" is boggling. I'm trying to stay polite and not say what I really think of your scheme, because I really don't want to put people off thinking creatively, but I'm certain you haven't put a second of thought into the practicalities. Your plan is... psychedelic.
Let"s see how this ends up.
But, if Ukraine gets partitioned, and there are many years of instability & war, then Ukraine will be far worse off.
Do the Palestinians deserve to be living in a tiny portion of the territory that they formerly occupied? No.
Northern Cyprus is 1/3 of the island of Cyprus. Before the invasion of Cyprus, Turkish Cypriots were ~ 18 per cent of the population. Were Turkish Cypriots entitled to 33 per cent of the island? No.
The boundary that is drawn by war will probably be worse for Ukraine.
If you don't like my solution, come up with a better one (which obviously has to have some concessions to both sides).
Make Russia bleed until it withdraws back to the 2021 lines of control. Wait for Putin to die and then open talks with his successor about renormalising relations.
Right, so ... let it bleed.
This does depend on when Putin dies, and who his successor is. Only then does the bleeding stop.
But if Putin is reasonably long-lived and chooses his successor, then your proposal might actually end up maximising the sum total of human misery (Ukrainian & Russian) .
Well, I could easily think of ways of increasing the misery if you asked me to, but no. I think this situation is inherently misery-inducing and all options are bad. But before we even get there, we have to ask what's possible.
What's not possible: 1 EU accession as a guarantor of peace 2 Taking back Ukraine by force without bad consequences 3 Regime change instigated from outwith without bad consequences
So that leaves: 4 Sit and hope that Putin changes his mind 5 Continue to arm the resistance and take an opportunity for a negotiated conclusion if and when a trustworthy Russian leader emerges 6 Give Ukraine up completely 7 Pay the Danegeld (have Ukraine sign away occupied areas) and hope the Dane doesn't come back next year (despite Ukraine not being fully defended)
And of uncertain possibility: 8 Give up chunks of Ukraine and have the rest enter into a formal defence pact (NATO or adjunct)
Good summary. 8 stands out in a 'least unpleasant person in a roomful of grizzlies' sort of way. If the priority is a settlement anytime soon, that is. Otherwise it's 5. That could be long term best but will likely involve a lot of suffering in the meantime.
The way to avoid getting nuked is surely to convey the impression to the enemy that, under the right circumstances and with the right provocation, you just might.
An impression the great Ronald Reagan and blessed Lady Thatcher (PBUH) passed off with aplomb.
By contrast, no government that with a policy of net zero carbon emissions by 2050 is ever going to fire a nuclear weapon. Ever. Under any circumstances. Putin knows that.
So why are we kidding ourselves? We would never, ever use nuclear weapons, why not bin them and concentrate on conventionals?
Oh shut the fuck up about environmentalism already
Do you think there are any circumstances under which the UK ever could or should launch a nuclear weapon? any circumstances at all?
Yes. Whenever you pop up I yearn for an all-consuming fireball,
If the Afghans can maintain a resistance for 20 years despite little external support against the full weight of the US, then Ukrainians can maintain a resistance against a sanctioned Russia with the full resources of the West behind them.
If the Afghans can maintain a resistance for 20 years despite little external support against the full weight of the US, then Ukrainians can maintain a resistance against a sanctioned Russia with the full resources of the West behind them.
Or defending the West to the last Ukrainian, as its otherwise known
SCOOP: Biden is poised to impose sanctions on a number of Russian oligarchs and their families TODAY, sources tell @nwadhams and me. The sanctions will be in keeping with EU measures but broader, prohibiting the oligarchs’ travel to US and also targeting their families. https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1499409767479091209
Just the 'world-leading' UK lagging behind then.
No shortage of 'useful idiots' here fanning the disunited allies meme so beloved of Putin.
Silence the traitors!
You don’t have a very good understanding of what is best about free and democratic countries have you?
South Korea taking a massive battering from COVID, including the PM reported today as having caught it. As well as New Zealand also seeing a big surge.
Forget all national vanity etc. Please, FFS, any country out there - vaccinate all the old people, lots and lots of times. It bloody works.
I do wonder about the 75 year old cut off for the 4th jab in the UK. I haven't been keeping up with the hospitalisation / death demographics, but if my memory serves me correctly somewhere around 60 is when you start to see the ramp up in poor outcomes.
If the Afghans can maintain a resistance for 20 years despite little external support against the full weight of the US, then Ukrainians can maintain a resistance against a sanctioned Russia with the full resources of the West behind them.
Or defending the West to the last Ukrainian, as its otherwise known
The way to avoid getting nuked is surely to convey the impression to the enemy that, under the right circumstances and with the right provocation, you just might.
An impression the great Ronald Reagan and blessed Lady Thatcher (PBUH) passed off with aplomb.
By contrast, no government that with a policy of net zero carbon emissions by 2050 is ever going to fire a nuclear weapon. Ever. Under any circumstances. Putin knows that.
So why are we kidding ourselves? We would never, ever use nuclear weapons, why not bin them and concentrate on conventionals?
Oh shut the fuck up about environmentalism already
Do you think there are any circumstances under which the UK ever could or should launch a nuclear weapon? any circumstances at all?
Yes. Whenever you pop up I yearn for an all-consuming fireball,
Seriously though, its important, should there not be a debate about the UK's nuclear deterrent? Its obvious we would never, ever use it. Why have it?
The default path now is an ongoing, bloody, grinding occupation of Ukraine, alongside the continued economic isolation of Russia.
I think we in the West can keep that up indefinitely. It’s less clear:
(1) how long Russia can keep up funding the war or manage the risk of regime collapse. (2) how long the Ukrainians can maintain their resistance.
So long as (1) and (2) remain uncertain, the war continues.
@YBarddCwsc’s proposed settlement makes sense, and is similar to what I’ve also said, but Putin and Zelensky are both still committed to their own maximalist position....
That is to suggest an equivalence which doesn't exist. Zelensky is committed to Ukraine's survival as an independent nation. I wouldn't described that as maximalist.
Not quite. Zelensky is committed to Ukraine’s survival as an independent nation, at pre-2014 borders, and as a member of both NATO and the EU.
Perhaps maximalist is the wrong word, I am simply saying that at least for now Zelensky has not signalled any potential compromise position.
And Zelensky is in the right. To rational people Russia has already lost and has an unwinnable situation on its hands. To Putin and the hardliners types, they will not mentally get there until the situation is rapidly turning against them at an accelerating rate. At that point, every week that goes past will reduce Russian leverage, so we should hold the line until full Ukrainian territory and sovereignty is accepted. That means the right to determine their own foreign policy.
The way to avoid getting nuked is surely to convey the impression to the enemy that, under the right circumstances and with the right provocation, you just might.
An impression the great Ronald Reagan and blessed Lady Thatcher (PBUH) passed off with aplomb.
By contrast, no government that with a policy of net zero carbon emissions by 2050 is ever going to fire a nuclear weapon. Ever. Under any circumstances. Putin knows that.
So why are we kidding ourselves? We would never, ever use nuclear weapons, why not bin them and concentrate on conventionals?
Oh shut the fuck up about environmentalism already
Do you think there are any circumstances under which the UK ever could or should launch a nuclear weapon? any circumstances at all?
Yes. Whenever you pop up I yearn for an all-consuming fireball,
Seriously though, its important, should there not be a debate about the UK's nuclear deterrent? Its obvious we would never, ever use it. Why have it?
Is that obvious? We’re using it right now. As a deterrent.
The way to avoid getting nuked is surely to convey the impression to the enemy that, under the right circumstances and with the right provocation, you just might.
An impression the great Ronald Reagan and blessed Lady Thatcher (PBUH) passed off with aplomb.
By contrast, no government that with a policy of net zero carbon emissions by 2050 is ever going to fire a nuclear weapon. Ever. Under any circumstances. Putin knows that.
So why are we kidding ourselves? We would never, ever use nuclear weapons, why not bin them and concentrate on conventionals?
Oh shut the fuck up about environmentalism already
Do you think there are any circumstances under which the UK ever could or should launch a nuclear weapon? any circumstances at all?
Yes. Whenever you pop up I yearn for an all-consuming fireball,
Seriously though, its important, should there not be a debate about the UK's nuclear deterrent? Its obvious we would never, ever use it. Why have it?
Because the existence of it stops the Russians from using theirs.
If the Afghans can maintain a resistance for 20 years despite little external support against the full weight of the US, then Ukrainians can maintain a resistance against a sanctioned Russia with the full resources of the West behind them.
Or defending the West to the last Ukrainian, as its otherwise known
What’s your alternative solution?
Give up to Daddy Vova. The guy is a Russian shill. Probably a different account from the other one that turned up and ran away with his tail between his legs because he was so humiliated.
Why did Putin spend 90 minutes on a call with Macron? Sounds like he's very rattled.
Maybe he is just very lonely and wants a chat with a friend.
I imagine they spent at least 80 minutes discussing that ABBA comeback before Macron finally signed and said, “Alors, what about this Ukraine sitch, then?”
The default path now is an ongoing, bloody, grinding occupation of Ukraine, alongside the continued economic isolation of Russia.
I think we in the West can keep that up indefinitely. It’s less clear:
(1) how long Russia can keep up funding the war or manage the risk of regime collapse. (2) how long the Ukrainians can maintain their resistance.
So long as (1) and (2) remain uncertain, the war continues.
@YBarddCwsc’s proposed settlement makes sense, and is similar to what I’ve also said, but Putin and Zelensky are both still committed to their own maximalist position....
That is to suggest an equivalence which doesn't exist. Zelensky is committed to Ukraine's survival as an independent nation. I wouldn't described that as maximalist.
Not quite. Zelensky is committed to Ukraine’s survival as an independent nation, at pre-2014 borders, and as a member of both NATO and the EU.
Perhaps maximalist is the wrong word, I am simply saying that at least for now Zelensky has not signalled any potential compromise position.
He's said he's prepared to negotiate terms - but with a cease-fire, and without preconditions. Otherwise he's be in the position of negotiating away his country purely in exchange for a ceasefire. He's risked sending government ministers to Belarus (which given Russian treatment of negotiators in the past isn't nothing) to give opportunities for such talks.
The default path now is an ongoing, bloody, grinding occupation of Ukraine, alongside the continued economic isolation of Russia.
I think we in the West can keep that up indefinitely. It’s less clear:
(1) how long Russia can keep up funding the war or manage the risk of regime collapse. (2) how long the Ukrainians can maintain their resistance.
So long as (1) and (2) remain uncertain, the war continues.
@YBarddCwsc’s proposed settlement makes sense, and is similar to what I’ve also said, but Putin and Zelensky are both still committed to their own maximalist position....
That is to suggest an equivalence which doesn't exist. Zelensky is committed to Ukraine's survival as an independent nation. I wouldn't described that as maximalist.
Not quite. Zelensky is committed to Ukraine’s survival as an independent nation, at pre-2014 borders, and as a member of both NATO and the EU.
Perhaps maximalist is the wrong word, I am simply saying that at least for now Zelensky has not signalled any potential compromise position.
Compromise? They want their own land, and to be able to determine their own future?
Why did Putin spend 90 minutes on a call with Macron? Sounds like he's very rattled.
Maybe he is just very lonely and wants a chat with a friend.
I imagine they spent at least 80 minutes discussing that ABBA comeback before Macron finally signed and said, “Alors, what about this Ukraine sitch, then?”
10 mins Chit Chat 15 mins Ukraine 20 mins Sanctions 20 mins Is Boris actually fat or just very muscular 25 mins Pineapple on pizza, yes or no
"If you don't want to leave now - sit down with me at the negotiating table, I'm free. But not by 30 meters, like with Macron, Scholz - I'm a neighbor! I don't bite. I'm a normal man, sit down with me, talk to me, what are you afraid of?"
We may as well accept it, there are no good outcomes to this that don't involve the overthorw of Putin. It may take months or years but the West should keep up the economic pressure on Russia until it happens.
No 'deal' that sees Ukrain giving up part of its territory should be brooked whist Putin is still in charge imo - and 'guarantee' he offers about Ukraine's future will be worthless.
And what if Putin says ‘if I don’t get my way in Ukraine I will nuke Lviv, killing 1m people’
What can we do then? We are not going to all-out nuclear war with Russia over Ukraine. It’s that simple. And Putin knows it, hence his barely veiled threats of nuke war. The menace is present
In the end he will get what he wants in Ukraine
The big problem with nuclear weapons and the theory of deterrence was the reliance on everyone acting rationally. The unspoken fear was always: what happens if someone mad gets hold of them. We always presumed that meant terrorists, willing to die for religion or whatever
Turns out it’s worse than that. It’s the president of Russia and he has 6,000 warheads, not just 1 in a briefcase
Oh, I quite accept he may for a time get the whole of Ukraine, but there should be no let up on the economic sanctions. From all I have heard the Russian economy cannot last long in the current climate.
Agreeing a settlement with Putin will be a sham, and he will soon be on to the next target.
The Chinese have a role to play here too. Whilst they would have been happy to see the West divided and the US 'knocked off its perch', economic meltdown and, even more, nuclear war does them no good at all. If the west plus China cannot constrain Russia now then we may as well give up, because nothing will.
I think China will be very satisfied with the situation. Its making them look like the adults in the room, it's giving them a desperate trading partner to sell them lots of cheap gas, and buy lots of manufactured goods, it's weakening a potential future geopolitical rival.
Chinese have been playing the long game for the past 20 years. And its working out very well for them.
I doubt they are very comfortable. The west is united like never before and a useful ally is becoming a pariah state. By the way Russia can't just sell the gas to China. All the infrastructure is set up to transport to Europe.
Anyone would think you had another agenda completely unrelated to the Ukraine.
And what is your agenda?
You can't refute the facts. Even PJohnson was more convincing...
The grauniad and facts - interesting topic for debate. Unlike you I've never posted fake Covid stats to make the EU look better that the UK. That one I will never forget.
I imagine they spent at least 80 minutes discussing that ABBA comeback
Does a French President really want to talk about Waterloo?
"This man's just got to go", declared his enemies But the ladies begged, "Don't you try to do it, please" No doubt this Putin had lots of hidden charms Though he was a brute, they just fell into his arms Then one night some men of higher standing Set a trap, they're not to blame "Come to visit us", they kept demanding And he really came
Why not examine the underlying question and decide on the merits?
Because the underlying question is "EU official is moaning about the UK". Well, durr. Of course they are. If we were doing the exact opposite, they would still be moaning, the Guardian would still be reporting it uncritically and Scotty would still be reposting it here...
They speak neither Russian nor Ukrainian, and have no contacts on Ukrainian soil — some had never even heard of the country itself until war broke out.
But a growing number of French nationals are joining Ukraine’s fight against the Russian invasion.
SCOOP: Biden is poised to impose sanctions on a number of Russian oligarchs and their families TODAY, sources tell @nwadhams and me. The sanctions will be in keeping with EU measures but broader, prohibiting the oligarchs’ travel to US and also targeting their families. https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1499409767479091209
Just the 'world-leading' UK lagging behind then.
No shortage of 'useful idiots' here fanning the disunited allies meme so beloved of Putin.
Silence the traitors!
You don’t have a very good understanding of what is best about free and democratic countries have you?
One good one is to accept and respect a democratic vote - even when it goes against you.
I imagine they spent at least 80 minutes discussing that ABBA comeback
Does a French President really want to talk about Waterloo?
The French, due to cognitive dissonance, believe that song is simply about a history teacher called Napoleon at Waterloo Station and an affair gone sour.
Putin mentioned “Does Your Mother Know?”, and Macron took that to be a jibe at his wife and slammed the phone down.
- Most Brits (54%) say Johnson should resign - Two-thirds (66%) say his war response hasn't changed their view of him - 84% didn't go to a party under restrictions - 88% didn't socialise at work with colleagues under restrictions
"If you don't want to leave now - sit down with me at the negotiating table, I'm free. But not by 30 meters, like with Macron, Scholz - I'm a neighbor! I don't bite. I'm a normal man, sit down with me, talk to me, what are you afraid of?"
"If you don't want to leave now" ? Is this some sort of miscontextualisation or mistranslation of his story about sitting down together man-to-man, which looks most likely, or something else ?
Why did Putin spend 90 minutes on a call with Macron? Sounds like he's very rattled.
Maybe he is just very lonely and wants a chat with a friend.
I imagine they spent at least 80 minutes discussing that ABBA comeback before Macron finally signed and said, “Alors, what about this Ukraine sitch, then?”
Maybe - if so it was likely a puntastic event:
Vlad “this will not be my Waterloo”
Manny “well Vlad let’s see, as the Winner takes it all”
Vlad “ I will send in my Supertroopers”
Manny “we will stop you - Ukraine has sent us an SOS”
Vlad “I don’t care what THEY want, just Gimme Gimme Gimme”
If the Afghans can maintain a resistance for 20 years despite little external support against the full weight of the US, then Ukrainians can maintain a resistance against a sanctioned Russia with the full resources of the West behind them.
As one of the Taliban observed “you may have the watches, but we have the time”.
SCOOP: Biden is poised to impose sanctions on a number of Russian oligarchs and their families TODAY, sources tell @nwadhams and me. The sanctions will be in keeping with EU measures but broader, prohibiting the oligarchs’ travel to US and also targeting their families. https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1499409767479091209
Just the 'world-leading' UK lagging behind then.
No shortage of 'useful idiots' here fanning the disunited allies meme so beloved of Putin.
Silence the traitors!
You don’t have a very good understanding of what is best about free and democratic countries have you?
One good one is to accept and respect a democratic vote - even when it goes against you.
Another is the right to voice our opinion and questions peacefully without being bullied or disappearing in the night.
Can we at least ask if Dominic Raab has given back the £25K of dirrrrty Putin money yet, without shattering the Western Alliance and blacklisted as Putin’s idiotic helper and traitor?
Why did Putin spend 90 minutes on a call with Macron? Sounds like he's very rattled.
Maybe he is just very lonely and wants a chat with a friend.
I imagine they spent at least 80 minutes discussing that ABBA comeback before Macron finally signed and said, “Alors, what about this Ukraine sitch, then?”
10 mins Chit Chat 15 mins Ukraine 20 mins Sanctions 20 mins Is Boris actually fat or just very muscular 25 mins Pineapple on pizza, yes or no
Definitely the later 2 points, after Vlad has been given intelligence reports that the British are extremely split on these issues...apparently based upon reading some obscure betting forum.
is it a frailer to vaccinate older people or because the chines vaccine dose not work very well?
that's a questioned, I don't know, it may be a bit of both?
Both. Their vaccination program has been a complete shambles. They tried to do the 'zero-Covid' thing, with draconian restrictions and quarantines, which worked for a while, but they utterly squandered that potential advantage by failing to vaccinate the vulnerable properly. And they got tangled up in ideologically favouring Chinese vaccines, one at least of which is pretty useless. Now Omicron is ripping through the population and they don't have much immunity.
- Cases seem to be levelling off for the moment. There is an interesting change in the age profile, with the oldest group going back above one. This is a very small number of people, so it doesn't effect overall R very much. BUT
- The admissions numbers have gone up, as one would expect. Vaccinations help, but these groups are more vulnerable.
- In hospital seems to be returning to a downward trend after the bump around the 28th - MV beds likewise - Deaths still heading down.
The way to avoid getting nuked is surely to convey the impression to the enemy that, under the right circumstances and with the right provocation, you just might.
An impression the great Ronald Reagan and blessed Lady Thatcher (PBUH) passed off with aplomb.
By contrast, no government that with a policy of net zero carbon emissions by 2050 is ever going to fire a nuclear weapon. Ever. Under any circumstances. Putin knows that.
So why are we kidding ourselves? We would never, ever use nuclear weapons, why not bin them and concentrate on conventionals?
Oh shut the fuck up about environmentalism already
Do you think there are any circumstances under which the UK ever could or should launch a nuclear weapon? any circumstances at all?
Yes. Whenever you pop up I yearn for an all-consuming fireball,
Seriously though, its important, should there not be a debate about the UK's nuclear deterrent? Its obvious we would never, ever use it. Why have it?
Even if that were a question for debate, right now is about the most stupid time possible to raise it.
Anyone would think you had another agenda completely unrelated to the Ukraine.
And what is your agenda?
You can't refute the facts. Even PJohnson was more convincing...
That one I will never forget.
Oh come now felix, this does come across as a little pompous. And I don't think you're really in a position to claim the moral high ground over Scott and neither is your party.
Covid has been tough for everyone and statistics, well, you know what they say about them.
That feels significant, even hopeful. Russian business people don’t want to end up like starving North Koreans. Nor do they want to die of radiation poisoning
He might be mad enough to try a Stalinist purge of any of the elite who oppose him.
No might about it. I am sure he would. He knows that if he falls he is quite unlikely to get a pleasant retirement. He is said to be obsessed with the videos of Gaddafi’s final moments: beaten, sodomised, then butchered.
SCOOP: Biden is poised to impose sanctions on a number of Russian oligarchs and their families TODAY, sources tell @nwadhams and me. The sanctions will be in keeping with EU measures but broader, prohibiting the oligarchs’ travel to US and also targeting their families. https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1499409767479091209
Just the 'world-leading' UK lagging behind then.
No shortage of 'useful idiots' here fanning the disunited allies meme so beloved of Putin.
Silence the traitors!
You don’t have a very good understanding of what is best about free and democratic countries have you?
One good one is to accept and respect a democratic vote - even when it goes against you.
Another is the right to voice our opinion and questions peacefully without being bullied or disappearing in the night.
Can we at least ask if Dominic Raab has given back the £25K of dirrrrty Putin money yet, without shattering the Western Alliance and blacklisted as Putin’s idiotic helper and traitor?
Lol - that 'useful idiot' jibe has clearly hit a nerve.
" Putin is said to have told Mr Macron in a 90-minute call that he had no plans to stop the invasion, will continue until he takes the whole of Ukraine, and may then add extra security demands on top of the ones he had already sent to the US and NATO. The attack will continue 'without compromises' until 'the end', Putin said."
Very odd, becasuse this is completely the opposite direction of travel from Lavrov, both apparently in rhetoric and demands. Either it's the world's highest-stakes game of good-cop-bad-cop, as Luckyguy mentions, or we could be looking at some sort of regime split.
Given the other signs of public dissent here and there, I think it's most likely the latter.
Anyone would think you had another agenda completely unrelated to the Ukraine.
And what is your agenda?
You can't refute the facts. Even PJohnson was more convincing...
The grauniad and facts - interesting topic for debate. Unlike you I've never posted fake Covid stats to make the EU look better that the UK. That one I will never forget.
Surely even you can see what an embarrassingly inadequate answer that is?
Now: ignoring the Guardian and Scott and me, do you think the UK is lagging in imposing sanctions? If so why do you think this is, and do you think this is a satisfactory state of affairs?
The way to avoid getting nuked is surely to convey the impression to the enemy that, under the right circumstances and with the right provocation, you just might.
An impression the great Ronald Reagan and blessed Lady Thatcher (PBUH) passed off with aplomb.
By contrast, no government that with a policy of net zero carbon emissions by 2050 is ever going to fire a nuclear weapon. Ever. Under any circumstances. Putin knows that.
So why are we kidding ourselves? We would never, ever use nuclear weapons, why not bin them and concentrate on conventionals?
Anyone would think you had another agenda completely unrelated to the Ukraine.
And what is your agenda?
You can't refute the facts. Even PJohnson was more convincing...
The grauniad and facts - interesting topic for debate. Unlike you I've never posted fake Covid stats to make the EU look better that the UK. That one I will never forget.
I agree Felix, I wouldn’t assume it’s fact.
A legitimate question from opposition benches in parliament though (with government front bench obliged to answer honestly) is it going so slow allowing them to escape their assets before the doors are locked?
SCOOP: Biden is poised to impose sanctions on a number of Russian oligarchs and their families TODAY, sources tell @nwadhams and me. The sanctions will be in keeping with EU measures but broader, prohibiting the oligarchs’ travel to US and also targeting their families. https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1499409767479091209
Just the 'world-leading' UK lagging behind then.
No shortage of 'useful idiots' here fanning the disunited allies meme so beloved of Putin.
Silence the traitors!
You don’t have a very good understanding of what is best about free and democratic countries have you?
One good one is to accept and respect a democratic vote - even when it goes against you.
Another is the right to voice our opinion and questions peacefully without being bullied or disappearing in the night.
Can we at least ask if Dominic Raab has given back the £25K of dirrrrty Putin money yet, without shattering the Western Alliance and blacklisted as Putin’s idiotic helper and traitor?
And another £80,000 of Russian dirty money into tory coffers this last month:
We may as well accept it, there are no good outcomes to this that don't involve the overthorw of Putin. It may take months or years but the West should keep up the economic pressure on Russia until it happens.
No 'deal' that sees Ukrain giving up part of its territory should be brooked whist Putin is still in charge imo - and 'guarantee' he offers about Ukraine's future will be worthless.
And what if Putin says ‘if I don’t get my way in Ukraine I will nuke Lviv, killing 1m people’
What can we do then? We are not going to all-out nuclear war with Russia over Ukraine. It’s that simple. And Putin knows it, hence his barely veiled threats of nuke war. The menace is present
In the end he will get what he wants in Ukraine
The big problem with nuclear weapons and the theory of deterrence was the reliance on everyone acting rationally. The unspoken fear was always: what happens if someone mad gets hold of them. We always presumed that meant terrorists, willing to die for religion or whatever
Turns out it’s worse than that. It’s the president of Russia and he has 6,000 warheads, not just 1 in a briefcase
Oh, I quite accept he may for a time get the whole of Ukraine, but there should be no let up on the economic sanctions. From all I have heard the Russian economy cannot last long in the current climate.
Agreeing a settlement with Putin will be a sham, and he will soon be on to the next target.
The Chinese have a role to play here too. Whilst they would have been happy to see the West divided and the US 'knocked off its perch', economic meltdown and, even more, nuclear war does them no good at all. If the west plus China cannot constrain Russia now then we may as well give up, because nothing will.
I think China will be very satisfied with the situation. Its making them look like the adults in the room, it's giving them a desperate trading partner to sell them lots of cheap gas, and buy lots of manufactured goods, it's weakening a potential future geopolitical rival.
It's a bit more complicated than that. Russia can't suddenly replace the EU with China as a market for its gas because there's only one (pretty small) pipe in existence today. They're planning a second, but it would still only be half the capacity of the original Nord Stream, and is due to be ready in 2028 (so probably more like 2030).
So, the idea that Russia can turn on a dime, and switch gas exports to China is for the birds.
Comments
My brother thinks he can rebuild Ukraine single handedly and become a Oligarch once Putin is beaten out. That bits not surprising.
Another week in life of Jade 26 1/2. Feels like a crap year so far. 😞
And how are those “EU fighters” shaping up?
https://twitter.com/sebwhale/status/1499410759520079880
Why, if Omicron is so much milder?
Most of that mildness is really due to vaccination and Hong Kong has hugely failed to vaccinate older people.
https://twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1499412424016994305
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-03/u-s-readies-new-sanctions-on-russian-oligarchs-and-families?sref=yYYRek8e
BBC Politics
@BBCPolitics
·
4h
"I'd just like to offer my heartfelt thanks and admiration to all of those journalists... who are risking their lives to bring us unbiased and accurate news from a live warzone"
Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries gives an emotional tribute to journalists
===
Two weeks ago it was all about how shit the BBC is and how its funding model has to end.
Brexit was meant to mean we get things done quicker, because 1 vs 27, red tape, blah blah
Zelensky is committed to Ukraine's survival as an independent nation. I wouldn't described that as maximalist.
DONT LET THEM DIE
Be like person who grabbed De Gaul and man handled him onto plane
PLEASE
If he did say that he would take the whole of Ukraine and wouldn't stop until the job was done I hope he was told that he didn't have a cat in hell's chance of achieving that, we'll be supporting a resistance/government in exile for as long as necessary and his economy will be a basket case in the very near future
A few days ago waiters asked customers to show their covid certificate before entering. Now they ask to show a passport. https://twitter.com/KSergatskova/status/1499415564963487745/photo/1
@alexstubb
A ten point THREAD on the situation from a country with a 1340km border with Russia:
1. The security threat is real. Putin wants to take over Ukraine, revamp the security structure of Europe & keep Finland & Sweden out of Nato. We must assume that his actions have no limits.
https://mobile.twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1499334282992627716
You can't refute the facts. Even PJohnson was more convincing...
Zelensky is committed to Ukraine’s survival as an independent nation, at pre-2014 borders, and as a member of both NATO and the EU.
Perhaps maximalist is the wrong word, I am simply saying that at least for now Zelensky has not signalled any potential compromise position.
You don’t have a very good understanding of what is best about free and democratic countries have you?
This is totally unpredictable.
I’d love to get more of a feeling for opinion inside Russia. All the tweets about bank queues etc struck me as hopeful rather truly descriptive.
We’re using it right now. As a deterrent.
Are you new here?
He's risked sending government ministers to Belarus (which given Russian treatment of negotiators in the past isn't nothing) to give opportunities for such talks.
I don't think it's a shoo-in for Labour.
But Dave Nellist is standing which feels about right for being back in the Cold War days.
There's nothing there to compromise on.
15 mins Ukraine
20 mins Sanctions
20 mins Is Boris actually fat or just very muscular
25 mins Pineapple on pizza, yes or no
that's a questioned, I don't know, it may be a bit of both?
"If you don't want to leave now - sit down with me at the negotiating table, I'm free. But not by 30 meters, like with Macron, Scholz - I'm a neighbor! I don't bite. I'm a normal man, sit down with me, talk to me, what are you afraid of?"
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1499418527069093890
But the ladies begged, "Don't you try to do it, please"
No doubt this Putin had lots of hidden charms
Though he was a brute, they just fell into his arms
Then one night some men of higher standing
Set a trap, they're not to blame
"Come to visit us", they kept demanding
And he really came
Oh, those Russians
But a growing number of French nationals are joining Ukraine’s fight against the Russian invasion.
https://bit.ly/35qcyMU
Putin mentioned “Does Your Mother Know?”, and Macron took that to be a jibe at his wife and slammed the phone down.
- Most Brits (54%) say Johnson should resign
- Two-thirds (66%) say his war response hasn't changed their view of him
- 84% didn't go to a party under restrictions
- 88% didn't socialise at work with colleagues under restrictions
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/polling/2022/03/exclusive-polling-most-brits-still-want-boris-johnson-to-resign
Vlad “this will not be my Waterloo”
Manny “well Vlad let’s see, as the Winner takes it all”
Vlad “ I will send in my Supertroopers”
Manny “we will stop you - Ukraine has sent us an SOS”
Vlad “I don’t care what THEY want, just Gimme Gimme Gimme”
And on ad infinitum……
Sorry….
Can we at least ask if Dominic Raab has given back the £25K of dirrrrty Putin money yet, without shattering the Western Alliance and blacklisted as Putin’s idiotic helper and traitor?
- Cases seem to be levelling off for the moment. There is an interesting change in the age profile, with the oldest group going back above one. This is a very small number of people, so it doesn't effect overall R very much. BUT
- The admissions numbers have gone up, as one would expect. Vaccinations help, but these groups are more vulnerable.
- In hospital seems to be returning to a downward trend after the bump around the 28th
- MV beds likewise
- Deaths still heading down.
What's your reason ?
Covid has been tough for everyone and statistics, well, you know what they say about them.
On topic: Erdington was also the most LEAVE seat in Birmingham: 63% to 37%.
I don't think it's a shoo-in for Labour.
But Dave Nellist is standing which feels about right for being back in the Cold War days.
Here is the story in your publication of choice
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10572679/Fury-Roman-Abramovich-oligarchs-offload-billions-assets-without-facing-sanctions.html
Now: ignoring the Guardian and Scott and me, do you think the UK is lagging in imposing sanctions? If so why do you think this is, and do you think this is a satisfactory state of affairs?
‘It may sound paradoxical from the outside, but Russia's *tactical defeats* now make *strategic victory* imperative.
To preserve Russia's aspiration to be a superpower, there must be no doubt at the end of the war who the victor was.
It must be Russia. By a crushing margin.’
https://twitter.com/clintehrlich/status/1499282732307779587?s=21
A thread worth reading, even if you despise the thesis
A legitimate question from opposition benches in parliament though (with government front bench obliged to answer honestly) is it going so slow allowing them to escape their assets before the doors are locked?
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tories-pocket-80000-russian-born-26366943
Stinking dirty tory Russian money
https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1499419869409861640
So, the idea that Russia can turn on a dime, and switch gas exports to China is for the birds.