Three PB faces from tonight’s 18th birthday party – politicalbetting.com

JosiasJessop said:

I am sad.

A friend of mine, who was a keen Corbyn supporter, a peacenik, and spent a lot of time helping refugees in the camps in France, just wrote on Facebook that whilst Russia should not have sent troops into Ukraine, "However the situation must be understood", followed by a link to an Oliver Stone's 2016 pro-Putin 'documentary' Ukraine on Fire.

Followed by a lot of comments backing his view. He was also pro-Assad and a chemical weapons denialist.

He then posts something else about media manipulation, followed by how the west are very duplicitous, and how the BBC's video of the missile attack on Karkiv seems to have come from Ukrannian-held territory, and why would Russian forces need to send a missile to destroy it when they were already in the city?

I know this guy. On a personal level he's lovely. But his views... Oh, his views.

I don't respond, but I'm so tempted. Worse, another friend - a genial, happy chap I'm very find of - 'liked' both comments.

StuartDickson said:

Brent Crude 125 dollars

Andy_JS said:

I've been waiting for John Gray's first commentary on the Ukraine situation.

"The new age of disorder
Putin represents a world the Western mind can no longer comprehend. The belief that liberalism will inevitably prevail is an illusion that Europe must abandon if it is to win a war of his creation.
By John Gray" (£)

https://www.newstatesman.com/international-politics/geopolitics/2022/03/the-new-age-of-disorder

Andy_JS said:

I've been waiting for John Gray's first commentary on the Ukraine situation.

"The new age of disorder
Putin represents a world the Western mind can no longer comprehend. The belief that liberalism will inevitably prevail is an illusion that Europe must abandon if it is to win a war of his creation.
By John Gray" (£)

https://www.newstatesman.com/international-politics/geopolitics/2022/03/the-new-age-of-disorder

JosiasJessop said:

Is this the place to say I hate poetry?

pigeon said:

"My scientific conclusion... is that the Russian economy is fucked. Double fucked, because most Russians don't know what's coming."

Chris said:

It's not just foreign leaders. Is it possible Putin genuinely has some paranoid phobia about getting close to people, perhaps related to coronavirus?

MarqueeMark said:

JosiasJessop said:

I am sad.

A friend of mine, who was a keen Corbyn supporter, a peacenik, and spent a lot of time helping refugees in the camps in France, just wrote on Facebook that whilst Russia should not have sent troops into Ukraine, "However the situation must be understood", followed by a link to an Oliver Stone's 2016 pro-Putin 'documentary' Ukraine on Fire.

Followed by a lot of comments backing his view. He was also pro-Assad and a chemical weapons denialist.

He then posts something else about media manipulation, followed by how the west are very duplicitous, and how the BBC's video of the missile attack on Karkiv seems to have come from Ukrannian-held territory, and why would Russian forces need to send a missile to destroy it when they were already in the city?

I know this guy. On a personal level he's lovely. But his views... Oh, his views.

I don't respond, but I'm so tempted. Worse, another friend - a genial, happy chap I'm very find of - 'liked' both comments.

Can I suggest that if you don't speak out, he is operating in as deaf a world as if he were in Russia.

Chameleon said:

https://twitter.com/LucasFoxNews/status/1499195429988278278

"Several Russian warships have left Crimea and are heading to Odesa. An amphibious assault on Ukraine’s third largest city could come as soon as Thursday: U.S. officials"

Feels like Russia are doing loads of really high risk attacks for not much reason (see various VDV drops over the past few days). Given how telegraphed this attack has been, should be massive Russian casualties, with a lot of Neptunes and Javelins waiting for the landing vessels.

edmundintokyo said:

Aslan said:

rcs1000 said:

Flatlander said:

swing_voter said:

Gardenwalker said:

Kyiv is about the same size as Greater Manchester. Bigger, in fact.

I’m trying to get my head around the idea of occupying a city that big.

The UK (apart from a few weeks of honeymoon) never got a grip over Basrah the 7-8 years it was occupied, and the population wasnt even that hostile... a Russian presence of tens of thousands I imagine will struggle - though paramilitaries/police/Interior Ministry troops could be drafted in from across Russia (and from what I see Russian police arent exactly like UK police officers)

I suppose that the only way that they can gain control is the way that they've taken Kherson - tell the city to stop fighting otherwise it gets levelled. An option that was not available in Iraq.

You don't need to parade up and down too much.

Even that doesn't really gain you control. The city elders might say "we've given up", but that won't stop the young from taking potshots at Russian soldiers from time-to-time.

And sure, they can do the collective punishment thing, but that's a hard thing to maintain for any length of time.

And of course they have to do this in multiple large cities spread across a wide area. There is no scenario in which Russia wins. Eventually they will have to withdraw, and as long as Ukraine doesn't unnecessarily compromise on its sovereignty Putin will not be able to spin it as a win. Which means he will be replaced, due to having forced Russia through so much suffering for no benefit.

I don't understand this "no scenario where Russia wins" thing.

They take all the territory they want and kick out however much of the resident population they need to hold it. They kill or capture some anti-Russian politicians to make and example in other countries. Then they leave the rest.

That's winning, isn't it? If the goal is to build a sustainable pro-Russian state across the whole of the territory then maybe they can't do that, but that's not the only way to win, I think?

JosiasJessop said:

Is this the place to say I hate poetry?

In fact, I'd rather listen to a compilation of Radiohead's Greatest Hits (*) whilst eating pineapple pizza than listen to five minutes of Poetry Please?

(*) On loop, as it is so short

MarqueeMark said:

JosiasJessop said:

I am sad.

A friend of mine, who was a keen Corbyn supporter, a peacenik, and spent a lot of time helping refugees in the camps in France, just wrote on Facebook that whilst Russia should not have sent troops into Ukraine, "However the situation must be understood", followed by a link to an Oliver Stone's 2016 pro-Putin 'documentary' Ukraine on Fire.

Followed by a lot of comments backing his view. He was also pro-Assad and a chemical weapons denialist.

He then posts something else about media manipulation, followed by how the west are very duplicitous, and how the BBC's video of the missile attack on Karkiv seems to have come from Ukrannian-held territory, and why would Russian forces need to send a missile to destroy it when they were already in the city?

I know this guy. On a personal level he's lovely. But his views... Oh, his views.

I don't respond, but I'm so tempted. Worse, another friend - a genial, happy chap I'm very find of - 'liked' both comments.

Can I suggest that if you don't speak out, he is operating in as deaf a world as if he were in Russia. You can't look at Ukraine and think "that is terrible" - but then sit back from voicing your support to preserve a friendship. Confront him. Confront those who like his views. Let him know his view is at best niche - and not one you can leave unchallenged.

The information acquired from the various links on here gives you a broad-based idea of what is really going on - and why. Use it to make your case.

People in Ukraine are dying to have that free voice you are choosing to leave silent.

JosiasJessop said:

MarqueeMark said:

JosiasJessop said:

I am sad.

A friend of mine, who was a keen Corbyn supporter, a peacenik, and spent a lot of time helping refugees in the camps in France, just wrote on Facebook that whilst Russia should not have sent troops into Ukraine, "However the situation must be understood", followed by a link to an Oliver Stone's 2016 pro-Putin 'documentary' Ukraine on Fire.

Followed by a lot of comments backing his view. He was also pro-Assad and a chemical weapons denialist.

He then posts something else about media manipulation, followed by how the west are very duplicitous, and how the BBC's video of the missile attack on Karkiv seems to have come from Ukrannian-held territory, and why would Russian forces need to send a missile to destroy it when they were already in the city?

I know this guy. On a personal level he's lovely. But his views... Oh, his views.

I don't respond, but I'm so tempted. Worse, another friend - a genial, happy chap I'm very find of - 'liked' both comments.

Can I suggest that if you don't speak out, he is operating in as deaf a world as if he were in Russia. You can't look at Ukraine and think "that is terrible" - but then sit back from voicing your support to preserve a friendship. Confront him. Confront those who like his views. Let him know his view is at best niche - and not one you can leave unchallenged.

The information acquired from the various links on here gives you a broad-based idea of what is really going on - and why. Use it to make your case.

People in Ukraine are dying to have that free voice you are choosing to leave silent.

I agree. I have argued with him before - mainly over Assad's culpability for the chemical attacks. And I get a massive pile-on from other people on his feed, and it gets exhausting very, very quickly. It's 100 times worse than PB. Utterly demoralising. But it's also interesting to hear another view, and realise that everyone who thinks this way might not be a Russian troll, and just someone who has fallen down a certain rabbit hole.

It's interesting in another way: when this happens, he jumps in to say that although I am wrong, people should stop it because I am a good guy. In this way, he's a bit like Corbyn - he acts like a voice of reason compared to the lunatic followers who surround him.

I would say I don't want to destroy our friendship, but I'm unsure I really want to remain friends with him if that's how he sees the world. And I sat next to this guy for a couple of years, worked with him. Liked him. I always knew he was a bit on the fringe of hippydom, but had no idea of the (ahem) strength of his views ...

tlg86 said:

The truth is like poetry, and most people hate poetry.

tlg86 said:

The truth is like poetry, and most people hate poetry.

Cicero said:

pigeon said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

Fitch has downgraded Russia six steps in one move, from BBB to B.

That's a really big deal.

Most investment funds, pensions and insurance companies are usually required to only hold "investment grade" bonds.

And investment grade is a minimum of BBB-.

B is (counts it) four or five rungs below BBB-.

That's a lot of investment funds and insurance companies and pension funds that will, as of tomorrow, no longer be able to hold Russian government debt.

Is anyone in the Western world allowed to purchase Russian bonds anyway?

Beyond that, this:

Fascinating thread from Prof. Maxim Mironov on what sanctions are likely to mean for the Russian economy.

"My scientific conclusion... is that the Russian economy is fucked. Double fucked, because most Russians don't know what's coming."

Image is my amateurish translation.

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1499157917399977987

This is worth a read. The professor quoted suggests:

+That Russia will soon suffer shortages of all sorts of basic goods, which are imported and which manufacturers are refusing to ship to the country (both because of risk of reputational damage, and because Russian importers would now struggle to pay for them)

+To the extent that Russia can turn to domestic production to fill the gaps, its factories are reliant on imported components and will soon grind to a halt anyway. This will also lead to a spike in unemployment and a further collapse in tax revenues, beyond those already suffered by the restrictions slapped on many of its exports

+More than half of Russia's foreign exchange reserves, which the Kremlin may have been banking on to cushion the effect of sanctions, have been seized - and much of the remainder is held as physical gold, which it will struggle to sell to foreign buyers

+Almost all Russian aircraft are imported and, since they will no longer be able to obtain spares, will soon be grounded. Civil aviation will grind to a halt, which is no small thing in a country spanning eleven time zones

+Russian agriculture relies heavily on imported seeds. These can eventually be replaced, but this is likely to lead to short-term deficiencies in a variety of crops

+Educated citizens crucial to the functioning of what's left of the Russian economy are starting to emigrate. The Government is likely to have to introduce exit visas to prevent them from escaping, or simply to close its borders altogether

None of this is going to change so long as Russia remains in Ukraine and, since it seems that Putin is completely committed to taking it, that means they won't change at all. It's not even clear to what extent he can rely on Xi to help him out in this instance. The Chinese may not have elected to condemn the invasion outright, but they've been fence sitting, keeping relations with Ukraine open, and careful to emphasise their traditional commitment to the inviolability of sovereign borders and that their relationship with Russia is a partnership rather than an alliance. One can only guess what's going on inside the CCP, but I would imagine that they're both horrified at the scarcely concealed nuclear blackmail aspect of all of this, and desperate to avoid a trade war with all their most important foreign customers by siding openly with Putin.

The ordinary Russian people are about to find out what life is like in North Korea, methinks.

The Russian economy is going to be very badly damaged, possibly to the point of no return. There is not yet a sense of panic, but as the infrastructure of the financial system gradually switches off and the complete shunning of Russia grows, even beyond official sanctions, there is a risk that they will literally fall part. In Estonia the leading supermarkets have removed all Russian goods from the shelves. Physical trade, let alone finance or even oil and gas, has also stopped dead.

These sanctions are an earthquake and the familiar landscape of Russian brands, from Aeroflot to Sberbank is at high risk of being levelled. Of course we know that "Russians are used to suffering", but even still the cardiac arrest of trade, finance, sport, culture, communications and diplomacy as the result of the insane whim of a senile criminal must give some pause, even amongst his henchmen.

JosiasJessop said:

MarqueeMark said:

JosiasJessop said:

I am sad.

A friend of mine, who was a keen Corbyn supporter, a peacenik, and spent a lot of time helping refugees in the camps in France, just wrote on Facebook that whilst Russia should not have sent troops into Ukraine, "However the situation must be understood", followed by a link to an Oliver Stone's 2016 pro-Putin 'documentary' Ukraine on Fire.

Followed by a lot of comments backing his view. He was also pro-Assad and a chemical weapons denialist.

He then posts something else about media manipulation, followed by how the west are very duplicitous, and how the BBC's video of the missile attack on Karkiv seems to have come from Ukrannian-held territory, and why would Russian forces need to send a missile to destroy it when they were already in the city?

I know this guy. On a personal level he's lovely. But his views... Oh, his views.

I don't respond, but I'm so tempted. Worse, another friend - a genial, happy chap I'm very find of - 'liked' both comments.

Can I suggest that if you don't speak out, he is operating in as deaf a world as if he were in Russia. You can't look at Ukraine and think "that is terrible" - but then sit back from voicing your support to preserve a friendship. Confront him. Confront those who like his views. Let him know his view is at best niche - and not one you can leave unchallenged.

The information acquired from the various links on here gives you a broad-based idea of what is really going on - and why. Use it to make your case.

People in Ukraine are dying to have that free voice you are choosing to leave silent.

I agree. I have argued with him before - mainly over Assad's culpability for the chemical attacks. And I get a massive pile-on from other people on his feed, and it gets exhausting very, very quickly. It's 100 times worse than PB. Utterly demoralising. But it's also interesting to hear another view, and realise that everyone who thinks this way might not be a Russian troll, and just someone who has fallen down a certain rabbit hole.

It's interesting in another way: when this happens, he jumps in to say that although I am wrong, people should stop it because I am a good guy. In this way, he's a bit like Corbyn - he acts like a voice of reason compared to the lunatic followers who surround him.

I would say I don't want to destroy our friendship, but I'm unsure I really want to remain friends with him if that's how he sees the world. And I sat next to this guy for a couple of years, worked with him. Liked him. I always knew he was a bit on the fringe of hippydom, but had no idea of the (ahem) strength of his views ...

tlg86 said:

The truth is like poetry, and most people hate poetry.

ydoethur said:

Cicero said:

pigeon said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

Fitch has downgraded Russia six steps in one move, from BBB to B.

That's a really big deal.

Most investment funds, pensions and insurance companies are usually required to only hold "investment grade" bonds.

And investment grade is a minimum of BBB-.

B is (counts it) four or five rungs below BBB-.

That's a lot of investment funds and insurance companies and pension funds that will, as of tomorrow, no longer be able to hold Russian government debt.

Is anyone in the Western world allowed to purchase Russian bonds anyway?

Beyond that, this:

Fascinating thread from Prof. Maxim Mironov on what sanctions are likely to mean for the Russian economy.

"My scientific conclusion... is that the Russian economy is fucked. Double fucked, because most Russians don't know what's coming."

Image is my amateurish translation.

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1499157917399977987

This is worth a read. The professor quoted suggests:

+That Russia will soon suffer shortages of all sorts of basic goods, which are imported and which manufacturers are refusing to ship to the country (both because of risk of reputational damage, and because Russian importers would now struggle to pay for them)

+To the extent that Russia can turn to domestic production to fill the gaps, its factories are reliant on imported components and will soon grind to a halt anyway. This will also lead to a spike in unemployment and a further collapse in tax revenues, beyond those already suffered by the restrictions slapped on many of its exports

+More than half of Russia's foreign exchange reserves, which the Kremlin may have been banking on to cushion the effect of sanctions, have been seized - and much of the remainder is held as physical gold, which it will struggle to sell to foreign buyers

+Almost all Russian aircraft are imported and, since they will no longer be able to obtain spares, will soon be grounded. Civil aviation will grind to a halt, which is no small thing in a country spanning eleven time zones

+Russian agriculture relies heavily on imported seeds. These can eventually be replaced, but this is likely to lead to short-term deficiencies in a variety of crops

+Educated citizens crucial to the functioning of what's left of the Russian economy are starting to emigrate. The Government is likely to have to introduce exit visas to prevent them from escaping, or simply to close its borders altogether

None of this is going to change so long as Russia remains in Ukraine and, since it seems that Putin is completely committed to taking it, that means they won't change at all. It's not even clear to what extent he can rely on Xi to help him out in this instance. The Chinese may not have elected to condemn the invasion outright, but they've been fence sitting, keeping relations with Ukraine open, and careful to emphasise their traditional commitment to the inviolability of sovereign borders and that their relationship with Russia is a partnership rather than an alliance. One can only guess what's going on inside the CCP, but I would imagine that they're both horrified at the scarcely concealed nuclear blackmail aspect of all of this, and desperate to avoid a trade war with all their most important foreign customers by siding openly with Putin.

The ordinary Russian people are about to find out what life is like in North Korea, methinks.

The Russian economy is going to be very badly damaged, possibly to the point of no return. There is not yet a sense of panic, but as the infrastructure of the financial system gradually switches off and the complete shunning of Russia grows, even beyond official sanctions, there is a risk that they will literally fall part. In Estonia the leading supermarkets have removed all Russian goods from the shelves. Physical trade, let alone finance or even oil and gas, has also stopped dead.

These sanctions are an earthquake and the familiar landscape of Russian brands, from Aeroflot to Sberbank is at high risk of being levelled. Of course we know that "Russians are used to suffering", but even still the cardiac arrest of trade, finance, sport, culture, communications and diplomacy as the result of the insane whim of a senile criminal must give some pause, even amongst his henchmen.

Something similar, albeit of lesser magnitude, polished off Gorbachev.

And he was fully compos mentis even if his judgement was less than perfect at times.

ydoethur said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good morning

Excellent news

BBC News - Winter Paralympics 2022: Russia and Belarus athletes unable to compete at Games
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/disability-sport/60599739

They sound a bit like Priti Patel. Doing the right thing, but only after all other options are exhausted.

FrankBooth said:

Smart move by Ukraine to let POWs go free so long as their mothers pick them up - in Kiev. Only problem is how they would be able to get them there now.

MikeL said:

Chris said:

It's not just foreign leaders. Is it possible Putin genuinely has some paranoid phobia about getting close to people, perhaps related to coronavirus?

David Owen said on Newsnight that he thinks Putin is taking anabolic steroids and that he is likely worried that they have weakened his immune system making him more at risk of catching Covid.

JosiasJessop said:

I am sad.

A friend of mine, who was a keen Corbyn supporter, a peacenik, and spent a lot of time helping refugees in the camps in France, just wrote on Facebook that whilst Russia should not have sent troops into Ukraine, "However the situation must be understood", followed by a link to an Oliver Stone's 2016 pro-Putin 'documentary' Ukraine on Fire.

Followed by a lot of comments backing his view. He was also pro-Assad and a chemical weapons denialist.

He then posts something else about media manipulation, followed by how the west are very duplicitous, and how the BBC's video of the missile attack on Karkiv seems to have come from Ukrannian-held territory, and why would Russian forces need to send a missile to destroy it when they were already in the city?

I know this guy. On a personal level he's lovely. But his views... Oh, his views.

I don't respond, but I'm so tempted. Worse, another friend - a genial, happy chap I'm very find of - 'liked' both comments.

CarlottaVance said:

Germany piling it on:

#BREAKING Germany to deliver 2,700 further anti-air missiles to Ukraine: govt source

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1499282935509585920

Aslan said:

Astonishing video of captured DNR troops: they just rounded up security guards and teachers, stuck a rifle in their hands and sent them to war:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/t4xnn9/a_small_russian_unit_that_fully_surrendered_to/

JosiasJessop said:

OldKingCole said:

tlg86 said:

The truth is like poetry, and most people hate poetry.

What a dreadful thought. How can one 'hate' poetry?

Brighter morning here, weather-wise. Glad last night's gathering went well.

Side thought; Grandson is reading history and opines that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is similar to the Italian invasion of Ethiopia in the thirties; done to project strength and restore the glories of the past. As with Mussolini Putin is interested in his image rather tan his country's.
And of course, if the Ethiopians had had decent weapons they'd have done a lot better than they did.

It does nothing for me - generally (there are a few exceptions). It leaves me cold.

Your attitude is also another reason: "What a dreadful thought". Yes, how *dare* someone not like something you like? Basically, there's a stench of tosserifism around poetry.

RochdalePioneers said:

This is what its starting to feel like. Putin sits in the Kremlin surrounded by supplicants whom he screams at. He plots a glorious return to the greater rodina, and tells his men to prepare for the operation. Yes, they reply.

WhisperingOracle said:

There's been a lot of talk that this meeting of the Russian Federation Council is to declare martial law. It might be to declare some other things too, such as changes in the leadership structure somewhere, or to respond to internal power struggles.

The best that should be hoped for is an immediate ceasefire, a quick deal involving no missiles stationed or NATO, but no preconditions on defence infrastructure beyond that, in return for total withdrawal, non-inteference and recgnotion of Zelenskiy, as Russia hinted at yesterday.

If that coud happen as quickly as possible, some of the most debilitating sanctions could be withdrawn. If and when it's no longer pointing a gun to the world's head, the total collapse of a territorially huge nation of 144 million with nuclear weapons is *not* in the world's interest.

ydoethur said:

Cicero said:

pigeon said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

Fitch has downgraded Russia six steps in one move, from BBB to B.

That's a really big deal.

Most investment funds, pensions and insurance companies are usually required to only hold "investment grade" bonds.

And investment grade is a minimum of BBB-.

B is (counts it) four or five rungs below BBB-.

That's a lot of investment funds and insurance companies and pension funds that will, as of tomorrow, no longer be able to hold Russian government debt.

Is anyone in the Western world allowed to purchase Russian bonds anyway?

Beyond that, this:

Fascinating thread from Prof. Maxim Mironov on what sanctions are likely to mean for the Russian economy.

"My scientific conclusion... is that the Russian economy is fucked. Double fucked, because most Russians don't know what's coming."

Image is my amateurish translation.

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1499157917399977987

This is worth a read. The professor quoted suggests:

+That Russia will soon suffer shortages of all sorts of basic goods, which are imported and which manufacturers are refusing to ship to the country (both because of risk of reputational damage, and because Russian importers would now struggle to pay for them)

+To the extent that Russia can turn to domestic production to fill the gaps, its factories are reliant on imported components and will soon grind to a halt anyway. This will also lead to a spike in unemployment and a further collapse in tax revenues, beyond those already suffered by the restrictions slapped on many of its exports

+More than half of Russia's foreign exchange reserves, which the Kremlin may have been banking on to cushion the effect of sanctions, have been seized - and much of the remainder is held as physical gold, which it will struggle to sell to foreign buyers

+Almost all Russian aircraft are imported and, since they will no longer be able to obtain spares, will soon be grounded. Civil aviation will grind to a halt, which is no small thing in a country spanning eleven time zones

+Russian agriculture relies heavily on imported seeds. These can eventually be replaced, but this is likely to lead to short-term deficiencies in a variety of crops

+Educated citizens crucial to the functioning of what's left of the Russian economy are starting to emigrate. The Government is likely to have to introduce exit visas to prevent them from escaping, or simply to close its borders altogether

None of this is going to change so long as Russia remains in Ukraine and, since it seems that Putin is completely committed to taking it, that means they won't change at all. It's not even clear to what extent he can rely on Xi to help him out in this instance. The Chinese may not have elected to condemn the invasion outright, but they've been fence sitting, keeping relations with Ukraine open, and careful to emphasise their traditional commitment to the inviolability of sovereign borders and that their relationship with Russia is a partnership rather than an alliance. One can only guess what's going on inside the CCP, but I would imagine that they're both horrified at the scarcely concealed nuclear blackmail aspect of all of this, and desperate to avoid a trade war with all their most important foreign customers by siding openly with Putin.

The ordinary Russian people are about to find out what life is like in North Korea, methinks.

The Russian economy is going to be very badly damaged, possibly to the point of no return. There is not yet a sense of panic, but as the infrastructure of the financial system gradually switches off and the complete shunning of Russia grows, even beyond official sanctions, there is a risk that they will literally fall part. In Estonia the leading supermarkets have removed all Russian goods from the shelves. Physical trade, let alone finance or even oil and gas, has also stopped dead.

These sanctions are an earthquake and the familiar landscape of Russian brands, from Aeroflot to Sberbank is at high risk of being levelled. Of course we know that "Russians are used to suffering", but even still the cardiac arrest of trade, finance, sport, culture, communications and diplomacy as the result of the insane whim of a senile criminal must give some pause, even amongst his henchmen.

Something similar, albeit of lesser magnitude, polished off Gorbachev.

And he was fully compos mentis even if his judgement was less than perfect at times.

state_go_away said:

JosiasJessop said:

OldKingCole said:

tlg86 said:

The truth is like poetry, and most people hate poetry.

What a dreadful thought. How can one 'hate' poetry?

Brighter morning here, weather-wise. Glad last night's gathering went well.

Side thought; Grandson is reading history and opines that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is similar to the Italian invasion of Ethiopia in the thirties; done to project strength and restore the glories of the past. As with Mussolini Putin is interested in his image rather tan his country's.
And of course, if the Ethiopians had had decent weapons they'd have done a lot better than they did.

It does nothing for me - generally (there are a few exceptions). It leaves me cold.

Your attitude is also another reason: "What a dreadful thought". Yes, how *dare* someone not like something you like? Basically, there's a stench of tosserifism around poetry.

Whilst pretty neutral on poetry myself. If you like it it probably means you are built in a certain way and if you don't you are just built in another way. I would be careful about calling people tossers though for promoting its virtue or even not understanding how you cannot like it given you seem to be larging it up on here asking if a friend's view on the war is so ridiculous you want to not be friend with them. People may think you are a bit of err tosser

Sandpit said:

WhisperingOracle said:

There's been a lot of talk that this meeting of the Russian Federation Council is to declare martial law. It might be to declare some other things too, such as changes in leadership somewhere.

The best that should be hoped for is an immediate ceasefire, a quick deal involving no missiles stationed or NATO, but no preconditions on defence infrastructure beyond that, in return for total withdrawal, non-inteference and recgnotion of Zelenskiy, as Russia hinted at yesterday.

If that coud happen as quickly as possible, some of the most debilitating sanctions could be withdrawn. If and when it's no longer pointing a gun to the world's head, the total collapse of a territorially huge nation of 144 million is *not* in the world's interest.

Nah, Puck Futin. Those sanctions are in for at least six months, after he withdraws to the pre-2014 border, pays $10bn into a damage fund and $1m to the family of each dead Ukranian.

If he doesn’t withdraw, they ratchet up as fast as the West can send NLAWs to Lviv.

Benpointer said:

ydoethur said:

Cicero said:

pigeon said:

rcs1000 said:

williamglenn said:

Fitch has downgraded Russia six steps in one move, from BBB to B.

That's a really big deal.

Most investment funds, pensions and insurance companies are usually required to only hold "investment grade" bonds.

And investment grade is a minimum of BBB-.

B is (counts it) four or five rungs below BBB-.

That's a lot of investment funds and insurance companies and pension funds that will, as of tomorrow, no longer be able to hold Russian government debt.

Is anyone in the Western world allowed to purchase Russian bonds anyway?

Beyond that, this:

Fascinating thread from Prof. Maxim Mironov on what sanctions are likely to mean for the Russian economy.

"My scientific conclusion... is that the Russian economy is fucked. Double fucked, because most Russians don't know what's coming."

Image is my amateurish translation.

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1499157917399977987

This is worth a read. The professor quoted suggests:

+That Russia will soon suffer shortages of all sorts of basic goods, which are imported and which manufacturers are refusing to ship to the country (both because of risk of reputational damage, and because Russian importers would now struggle to pay for them)

+To the extent that Russia can turn to domestic production to fill the gaps, its factories are reliant on imported components and will soon grind to a halt anyway. This will also lead to a spike in unemployment and a further collapse in tax revenues, beyond those already suffered by the restrictions slapped on many of its exports

+More than half of Russia's foreign exchange reserves, which the Kremlin may have been banking on to cushion the effect of sanctions, have been seized - and much of the remainder is held as physical gold, which it will struggle to sell to foreign buyers

+Almost all Russian aircraft are imported and, since they will no longer be able to obtain spares, will soon be grounded. Civil aviation will grind to a halt, which is no small thing in a country spanning eleven time zones

+Russian agriculture relies heavily on imported seeds. These can eventually be replaced, but this is likely to lead to short-term deficiencies in a variety of crops

+Educated citizens crucial to the functioning of what's left of the Russian economy are starting to emigrate. The Government is likely to have to introduce exit visas to prevent them from escaping, or simply to close its borders altogether

None of this is going to change so long as Russia remains in Ukraine and, since it seems that Putin is completely committed to taking it, that means they won't change at all. It's not even clear to what extent he can rely on Xi to help him out in this instance. The Chinese may not have elected to condemn the invasion outright, but they've been fence sitting, keeping relations with Ukraine open, and careful to emphasise their traditional commitment to the inviolability of sovereign borders and that their relationship with Russia is a partnership rather than an alliance. One can only guess what's going on inside the CCP, but I would imagine that they're both horrified at the scarcely concealed nuclear blackmail aspect of all of this, and desperate to avoid a trade war with all their most important foreign customers by siding openly with Putin.

The ordinary Russian people are about to find out what life is like in North Korea, methinks.

The Russian economy is going to be very badly damaged, possibly to the point of no return. There is not yet a sense of panic, but as the infrastructure of the financial system gradually switches off and the complete shunning of Russia grows, even beyond official sanctions, there is a risk that they will literally fall part. In Estonia the leading supermarkets have removed all Russian goods from the shelves. Physical trade, let alone finance or even oil and gas, has also stopped dead.

These sanctions are an earthquake and the familiar landscape of Russian brands, from Aeroflot to Sberbank is at high risk of being levelled. Of course we know that "Russians are used to suffering", but even still the cardiac arrest of trade, finance, sport, culture, communications and diplomacy as the result of the insane whim of a senile criminal must give some pause, even amongst his henchmen.

Something similar, albeit of lesser magnitude, polished off Gorbachev.

And he was fully compos mentis even if his judgement was less than perfect at times.

Really? I thought Gorbachev recognised the inevitable economic collapse of the Soviet Union and effectively polished it (the USSR) off.