Has the government boosted the defence budget? Not seen anything.
Conscious that with Ukraine playing the finest hour role and NATO playing the US lend lease role, we are one pearl harbour away from being involved.
Are we using the time we have wisely?
We have spent a decade cutting like crazy following a few more decades where we were unwinding post cold war. Do you really think this government is going to decisively do anything the way the Germans have done?
Unless Putin abruptly gets removed and a pro-western government immediately takes office there, we need to beef ourselves up. This PM responded to that need by mocking the Tory chair of the Defence Select Committee (and former Lieutenant Colonel in the army) of wanting cold war style tank battles.
Its funny how the last few remaining Tory sympathisers have used this crisis as "lets not bash Boris" excuses even though the man is a direct menace to our security by leaving us unprepared for the future.
I think we can all agree that tanks look more vulnerable than we realised. These new anti-tank weapons seem pretty brutal. If the same is true for anti-air missiles then modern defence forces may have more chance than we realised. Except for coping with long range artillery and rockets. I am not an armchair general btw. Death to pineapple on pizza!
It's not just foreign leaders. Is it possible Putin genuinely has some paranoid phobia about getting close to people, perhaps related to coronavirus?
David Owen said on Newsnight that he thinks Putin is taking anabolic steroids and that he is likely worried that they have weakened his immune system making him more at risk of catching Covid.
The alternative and I think likeliest explanation is paranoia. He has the space for security. Much harder to kill him from a distance. If you approach uninvited you are stopped, possibly in a permenant way. If it is covid there would be no exceptions.
Has the government boosted the defence budget? Not seen anything.
Conscious that with Ukraine playing the finest hour role and NATO playing the US lend lease role, we are one pearl harbour away from being involved.
Are we using the time we have wisely?
We have spent a decade cutting like crazy following a few more decades where we were unwinding post cold war. Do you really think this government is going to decisively do anything the way the Germans have done?
Unless Putin abruptly gets removed and a pro-western government immediately takes office there, we need to beef ourselves up. This PM responded to that need by mocking the Tory chair of the Defence Select Committee (and former Lieutenant Colonel in the army) of wanting cold war style tank battles.
Its funny how the last few remaining Tory sympathisers have used this crisis as "lets not bash Boris" excuses even though the man is a direct menace to our security by leaving us unprepared for the future.
Yes, had he really been Churchill reincarnated, he would have spent the past decade warning about the dangers of Russia. Instead of taking their money and flying off for meetings and holidays with their wealthy.
Still, he has the chance to play out his career like Churchill in just one respect; we can dump him the minute this crisis is out the way.
There's been a lot of talk that this meeting of the Russian Federation Council is to declare martial law. It might be to declare some other things too, such as changes in leadership somewhere.
The best that should be hoped for is an immediate ceasefire, a quick deal involving no missiles stationed or NATO, but no preconditions on defence infrastructure beyond that, in return for total withdrawal, non-inteference and recgnotion of Zelenskiy, as Russia hinted at yesterday.
If that coud happen as quickly as possible, some of the most debilitating sanctions could be withdrawn. If and when it's no longer pointing a gun to the world's head, the total collapse of a territorially huge nation of 144 million is *not* in the world's interest.
Nah, Puck Futin. Those sanctions are in for at least six months, after he withdraws to the pre-2014 border, pays $10bn into a damage fund and $1m to the family of each dead Ukranian.
If he doesn’t withdraw, they ratchet up as fast as the West can send NLAWs to Lviv.
There's been a lot of talk that this meeting of the Russian Federation Council is to declare martial law. It might be to declare some other things too, such as changes in the leadership structure somewhere, or to respond to internal power struggles.
The best that should be hoped for is an immediate ceasefire, a quick deal involving no missiles stationed or NATO, but no preconditions on defence infrastructure beyond that, in return for total withdrawal, non-inteference and recgnotion of Zelenskiy, as Russia hinted at yesterday.
If that coud happen as quickly as possible, some of the most debilitating sanctions could be withdrawn. If and when it's no longer pointing a gun to the world's head, the total collapse of a territorially huge nation of 144 million with nuclear weapons is *not* in the world's interest.
No, the total collapse of Putin's Russia absolutely is in the world's interest.
It's not just foreign leaders. Is it possible Putin genuinely has some paranoid phobia about getting close to people, perhaps related to coronavirus?
David Owen said on Newsnight that he thinks Putin is taking anabolic steroids and that he is likely worried that they have weakened his immune system making him more at risk of catching Covid.
The alternative and I think likeliest explanation is paranoia. He has the space for security. Much harder to kill him from a distance. If you approach uninvited you are stopped, possibly in a permenant way. If it is covid there would be no exceptions.
There's been a lot of talk that this meeting of the Russian Federation Council is to declare martial law. It might be to declare some other things too, such as changes in leadership somewhere.
The best that should be hoped for is an immediate ceasefire, a quick deal involving no missiles stationed or NATO, but no preconditions on defence infrastructure beyond that, in return for total withdrawal, non-inteference and recgnotion of Zelenskiy, as Russia hinted at yesterday.
If that coud happen as quickly as possible, some of the most debilitating sanctions could be withdrawn. If and when it's no longer pointing a gun to the world's head, the total collapse of a territorially huge nation of 144 million is *not* in the world's interest.
Nah, Puck Futin. Those sanctions are in for at least six months, after he withdraws to the pre-2014 border, pays $10bn into a damage fund and $1m to the family of each dead Ukranian.
If he doesn’t withdraw, they ratchet up as fast as the West can send NLAWs to Lviv.
Will Putin (or is he capable of) accepting defeat?
I don't think it is 'if he doesn't withdraw' If Russia doesn't withdraw, by which time Putin will be replaced.
I think pretty much the only way out from here, is for a new leadership in Russia.
His military has proven to be a paper tiger, and he’s too far down the road to back out now. The rest of the world is also too far down the road to be able to forgive him. Many of this week’s international decisions cannot and will not be undone for a long time.
It's not just foreign leaders. Is it possible Putin genuinely has some paranoid phobia about getting close to people, perhaps related to coronavirus?
David Owen said on Newsnight that he thinks Putin is taking anabolic steroids and that he is likely worried that they have weakened his immune system making him more at risk of catching Covid.
The alternative and I think likeliest explanation is paranoia. He has the space for security. Much harder to kill him from a distance. If you approach uninvited you are stopped, possibly in a permenant way. If it is covid there would be no exceptions.
He thought Macron was an assassin…
He thinks everyone is.
An easy mode of thinking to fall into when you're ordering assassinations left and right.
.@TimmermansEU, 1st vice president of European Commission tells @BBCr4today “The UK is now following our lead [on oligarchs]. Even parties who have accepted funding from oligarchs [ie the Tories] need to change course…because that’s what the British public want.” https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1499293133984735232
I thought that quite sharp and a tad undiplomatic (if not untrue) - may not help achieve the outcome he wants. “EU bureaucrat tells UK what to do” is less likely to achieve results that the more even tone most have been using in both the U.K. and EU.
There's been a lot of talk that this meeting of the Russian Federation Council is to declare martial law. It might be to declare some other things too, such as changes in the leadership structure somewhere, or to respond to internal power struggles.
The best that should be hoped for is an immediate ceasefire, a quick deal involving no missiles stationed or NATO, but no preconditions on defence infrastructure beyond that, in return for total withdrawal, non-inteference and recgnotion of Zelenskiy, as Russia hinted at yesterday.
If that coud happen as quickly as possible, some of the most debilitating sanctions could be withdrawn. If and when it's no longer pointing a gun to the world's head, the total collapse of a territorially huge nation of 144 million with nuclear weapons is *not* in the world's interest.
No, the total collapse of Putin's Russia absolutely is in the world's interest.
Pick up the pieces afterwards.
As we said in 1991.
Exactly. There's a very bizarre irony here. The west partly encouraged Putin at the beginning, because the biggest fear was unsecured nuclear weapons and WMD's, and a freefalling economy and command structure infecting all of the strategic issues in all of Russia's border areas. Then he went mad and threatened the entire world with them. If and when he's gone - a big if, still, at the moment - the West has to be very careful not to make equivalent mistakes twice.
The truth is like poetry, and most people hate poetry.
What a dreadful thought. How can one 'hate' poetry?
Brighter morning here, weather-wise. Glad last night's gathering went well.
Side thought; Grandson is reading history and opines that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is similar to the Italian invasion of Ethiopia in the thirties; done to project strength and restore the glories of the past. As with Mussolini Putin is interested in his image rather tan his country's. And of course, if the Ethiopians had had decent weapons they'd have done a lot better than they did.
It does nothing for me - generally (there are a few exceptions). It leaves me cold.
Your attitude is also another reason: "What a dreadful thought". Yes, how *dare* someone not like something you like? Basically, there's a stench of tosserifism around poetry.
This is after several posts from you condemning outright one of your friends who dares to have a different view on Putin than you.
Fitch has downgraded Russia six steps in one move, from BBB to B.
That's a really big deal.
Most investment funds, pensions and insurance companies are usually required to only hold "investment grade" bonds.
And investment grade is a minimum of BBB-.
B is (counts it) four or five rungs below BBB-.
That's a lot of investment funds and insurance companies and pension funds that will, as of tomorrow, no longer be able to hold Russian government debt.
Is anyone in the Western world allowed to purchase Russian bonds anyway?
Beyond that, this:
Fascinating thread from Prof. Maxim Mironov on what sanctions are likely to mean for the Russian economy.
"My scientific conclusion... is that the Russian economy is fucked. Double fucked, because most Russians don't know what's coming."
This is worth a read. The professor quoted suggests:
+That Russia will soon suffer shortages of all sorts of basic goods, which are imported and which manufacturers are refusing to ship to the country (both because of risk of reputational damage, and because Russian importers would now struggle to pay for them)
+To the extent that Russia can turn to domestic production to fill the gaps, its factories are reliant on imported components and will soon grind to a halt anyway. This will also lead to a spike in unemployment and a further collapse in tax revenues, beyond those already suffered by the restrictions slapped on many of its exports
+More than half of Russia's foreign exchange reserves, which the Kremlin may have been banking on to cushion the effect of sanctions, have been seized - and much of the remainder is held as physical gold, which it will struggle to sell to foreign buyers
+Almost all Russian aircraft are imported and, since they will no longer be able to obtain spares, will soon be grounded. Civil aviation will grind to a halt, which is no small thing in a country spanning eleven time zones
+Russian agriculture relies heavily on imported seeds. These can eventually be replaced, but this is likely to lead to short-term deficiencies in a variety of crops
+Educated citizens crucial to the functioning of what's left of the Russian economy are starting to emigrate. The Government is likely to have to introduce exit visas to prevent them from escaping, or simply to close its borders altogether
None of this is going to change so long as Russia remains in Ukraine and, since it seems that Putin is completely committed to taking it, that means they won't change at all. It's not even clear to what extent he can rely on Xi to help him out in this instance. The Chinese may not have elected to condemn the invasion outright, but they've been fence sitting, keeping relations with Ukraine open, and careful to emphasise their traditional commitment to the inviolability of sovereign borders and that their relationship with Russia is a partnership rather than an alliance. One can only guess what's going on inside the CCP, but I would imagine that they're both horrified at the scarcely concealed nuclear blackmail aspect of all of this, and desperate to avoid a trade war with all their most important foreign customers by siding openly with Putin.
The ordinary Russian people are about to find out what life is like in North Korea, methinks.
The Russian economy is going to be very badly damaged, possibly to the point of no return. There is not yet a sense of panic, but as the infrastructure of the financial system gradually switches off and the complete shunning of Russia grows, even beyond official sanctions, there is a risk that they will literally fall part. In Estonia the leading supermarkets have removed all Russian goods from the shelves. Physical trade, let alone finance or even oil and gas, has also stopped dead.
These sanctions are an earthquake and the familiar landscape of Russian brands, from Aeroflot to Sberbank is at high risk of being levelled. Of course we know that "Russians are used to suffering", but even still the cardiac arrest of trade, finance, sport, culture, communications and diplomacy as the result of the insane whim of a senile criminal must give some pause, even amongst his henchmen.
Something similar, albeit of lesser magnitude, polished off Gorbachev.
And he was fully compos mentis even if his judgement was less than perfect at times.
Really? I thought Gorbachev recognised the inevitable economic collapse of the Soviet Union and effectively polished it (the USSR) off.
Gorbachev had the grace not to fight too hard against his own obsolescence.
I get the impression that Putin would consider accepting N Korea status if it meant he got to remain in power.
Still always surprised he's still with us. Like Jimmy Carter he is living history. Wonder what he thinks?
I fear a big escalation against civilians. Which would inevitably lead to huge pressure on NATO to intervene. These conscripts haven't had much heart to fight their cousins and even replacing them with proper soldiers has an issue. But the Bravery of being out of range is strong- much easier to conduct war behind a screen with a joystick to target bombs and missiles.
The big escalation against civilians has been happening the past couple of days, in Kharkiv and Mariupol especially, but also Chernihiv, Kyiv and elsewhere.
The MoD intelligence update suggests that the big push against Kyiv is stuck. It may never come. It's plausible that, in a week's time, the Russians may have control of all the Black Sea coast, but have made little to no progress elsewhere, except in terms of civilian casualties and destruction of infrastructure. That creates a decision point. They could decide to push north towards Dnipro, but there's also the opportunity to declare the invasion a success and a ceasefire.
It won't be the victory Putin will have wanted, but Russia will have made some gains, and Ukraine is left shattered.
I fear a big escalation against civilians. Which would inevitably lead to huge pressure on NATO to intervene. These conscripts haven't had much heart to fight their cousins and even replacing them with proper soldiers has an issue. But the Bravery of being out of range is strong- much easier to conduct war behind a screen with a joystick to target bombs and missiles.
The big escalation against civilians has been happening the past couple of days, in Kharkiv and Mariupol especially, but also Chernihiv, Kyiv and elsewhere.
The MoD intelligence update suggests that the big push against Kyiv is stuck. It may never come. It's plausible that, in a week's time, the Russians may have control of all the Black Sea coast, but have made little to no progress elsewhere, except in terms of civilian casualties and destruction of infrastructure. That creates a decision point. They could decide to push north towards Dnipro, but there's also the opportunity to declare the invasion a success and a ceasefire.
It won't be the victory Putin will have wanted, but Russia will have made some gains, and Ukraine is left shattered.
Russia is also left shattered. Ukraine will get global support for a rebuild, Russia will remain a pariah.
There's been a lot of talk that this meeting of the Russian Federation Council is to declare martial law. It might be to declare some other things too, such as changes in the leadership structure somewhere, or to respond to internal power struggles.
The best that should be hoped for is an immediate ceasefire, a quick deal involving no missiles stationed or NATO, but no preconditions on defence infrastructure beyond that, in return for total withdrawal, non-inteference and recgnotion of Zelenskiy, as Russia hinted at yesterday.
If that coud happen as quickly as possible, some of the most debilitating sanctions could be withdrawn. If and when it's no longer pointing a gun to the world's head, the total collapse of a territorially huge nation of 144 million with nuclear weapons is *not* in the world's interest.
No, the total collapse of Putin's Russia absolutely is in the world's interest.
Pick up the pieces afterwards.
As we said in 1991.
Indeed and much of the world is a far better place because of the fall of the Soviet Union. Putin may be trying and failing to reverse that, but the pieces in much of the former Soviet Union is a lot better now than they were then.
Let Russia collapse or disintegrate, the world will be a better place without Putin's Russia.
There's been a lot of talk that this meeting of the Russian Federation Council is to declare martial law. It might be to declare some other things too, such as changes in the leadership structure somewhere, or to respond to internal power struggles.
The best that should be hoped for is an immediate ceasefire, a quick deal involving no missiles stationed or NATO, but no preconditions on defence infrastructure beyond that, in return for total withdrawal, non-inteference and recgnotion of Zelenskiy, as Russia hinted at yesterday.
If that coud happen as quickly as possible, some of the most debilitating sanctions could be withdrawn. If and when it's no longer pointing a gun to the world's head, the total collapse of a territorially huge nation of 144 million with nuclear weapons is *not* in the world's interest.
No, the total collapse of Putin's Russia absolutely is in the world's interest.
Pick up the pieces afterwards.
As we said in 1991.
Indeed and much of the world is a far better place because of the fall of the Soviet Union. Putin may be trying and failing to reverse that, but the pieces in much of the former Soviet Union is a lot better now than they were then.
Let Russia collapse or disintegrate, the world will be a better place without Putin's Russia.
Not necessarily without Russia in general, though. Look at the map.
Fitch has downgraded Russia six steps in one move, from BBB to B.
That's a really big deal.
Most investment funds, pensions and insurance companies are usually required to only hold "investment grade" bonds.
And investment grade is a minimum of BBB-.
B is (counts it) four or five rungs below BBB-.
That's a lot of investment funds and insurance companies and pension funds that will, as of tomorrow, no longer be able to hold Russian government debt.
Is anyone in the Western world allowed to purchase Russian bonds anyway?
Beyond that, this:
Fascinating thread from Prof. Maxim Mironov on what sanctions are likely to mean for the Russian economy.
"My scientific conclusion... is that the Russian economy is fucked. Double fucked, because most Russians don't know what's coming."
This is worth a read. The professor quoted suggests:
+That Russia will soon suffer shortages of all sorts of basic goods, which are imported and which manufacturers are refusing to ship to the country (both because of risk of reputational damage, and because Russian importers would now struggle to pay for them)
+To the extent that Russia can turn to domestic production to fill the gaps, its factories are reliant on imported components and will soon grind to a halt anyway. This will also lead to a spike in unemployment and a further collapse in tax revenues, beyond those already suffered by the restrictions slapped on many of its exports
+More than half of Russia's foreign exchange reserves, which the Kremlin may have been banking on to cushion the effect of sanctions, have been seized - and much of the remainder is held as physical gold, which it will struggle to sell to foreign buyers
+Almost all Russian aircraft are imported and, since they will no longer be able to obtain spares, will soon be grounded. Civil aviation will grind to a halt, which is no small thing in a country spanning eleven time zones
+Russian agriculture relies heavily on imported seeds. These can eventually be replaced, but this is likely to lead to short-term deficiencies in a variety of crops
+Educated citizens crucial to the functioning of what's left of the Russian economy are starting to emigrate. The Government is likely to have to introduce exit visas to prevent them from escaping, or simply to close its borders altogether
None of this is going to change so long as Russia remains in Ukraine and, since it seems that Putin is completely committed to taking it, that means they won't change at all. It's not even clear to what extent he can rely on Xi to help him out in this instance. The Chinese may not have elected to condemn the invasion outright, but they've been fence sitting, keeping relations with Ukraine open, and careful to emphasise their traditional commitment to the inviolability of sovereign borders and that their relationship with Russia is a partnership rather than an alliance. One can only guess what's going on inside the CCP, but I would imagine that they're both horrified at the scarcely concealed nuclear blackmail aspect of all of this, and desperate to avoid a trade war with all their most important foreign customers by siding openly with Putin.
The ordinary Russian people are about to find out what life is like in North Korea, methinks.
The Russian economy is going to be very badly damaged, possibly to the point of no return. There is not yet a sense of panic, but as the infrastructure of the financial system gradually switches off and the complete shunning of Russia grows, even beyond official sanctions, there is a risk that they will literally fall part. In Estonia the leading supermarkets have removed all Russian goods from the shelves. Physical trade, let alone finance or even oil and gas, has also stopped dead.
These sanctions are an earthquake and the familiar landscape of Russian brands, from Aeroflot to Sberbank is at high risk of being levelled. Of course we know that "Russians are used to suffering", but even still the cardiac arrest of trade, finance, sport, culture, communications and diplomacy as the result of the insane whim of a senile criminal must give some pause, even amongst his henchmen.
Something similar, albeit of lesser magnitude, polished off Gorbachev.
And he was fully compos mentis even if his judgement was less than perfect at times.
Really? I thought Gorbachev recognised the inevitable economic collapse of the Soviet Union and effectively polished it (the USSR) off.
Gorbachev had the grace not to fight too hard against his own obsolescence.
I get the impression that Putin would consider accepting N Korea status if it meant he got to remain in power.
Still always surprised he's still with us. Like Jimmy Carter he is living history. Wonder what he thinks?
Putin congratulated Gorbachev on his 91st birthday yesterday.
While Gorbachev is no fan of Putin's repression, he also thinks the US became 'arrogant' after the fall of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War
Has the government boosted the defence budget? Not seen anything.
Conscious that with Ukraine playing the finest hour role and NATO playing the US lend lease role, we are one pearl harbour away from being involved.
Are we using the time we have wisely?
We have spent a decade cutting like crazy following a few more decades where we were unwinding post cold war. Do you really think this government is going to decisively do anything the way the Germans have done?
Unless Putin abruptly gets removed and a pro-western government immediately takes office there, we need to beef ourselves up. This PM responded to that need by mocking the Tory chair of the Defence Select Committee (and former Lieutenant Colonel in the army) of wanting cold war style tank battles.
Its funny how the last few remaining Tory sympathisers have used this crisis as "lets not bash Boris" excuses even though the man is a direct menace to our security by leaving us unprepared for the future.
I think we can all agree that tanks look more vulnerable than we realised. These new anti-tank weapons seem pretty brutal. If the same is true for anti-air missiles then modern defence forces may have more chance than we realised. Except for coping with long range artillery and rockets. I am not an armchair general btw. Death to pineapple on pizza!
We don't need squadrons of tanks to repel Warsaw Pack forces pouring through the Fulda Gap. Which was not remotely what Ellwood was arguing for. Didn't stop the Big Dog going back to the same failed analogy as his excuse for why actually we don't need to bolster our armed forces actually.
The truth is like poetry, and most people hate poetry.
Poetry is a distillation of expression and emotion. Like other distillations, fine in small doses, but not to be over indulged and not to everyones taste.
'Poetry' is a word like 'music'. It isn't really possible to know how to respond to such a wide word in the way of 'like' 'hate' etc.
IMHO it suffers a from either being too clever (Muldoon, Ashbery) or not clever enough (the stuff that gets read at funerals and weddings). The only poets that have a vast readership among people who read much at all are those who have something to say and happen to be geniuses of clarity, emotion and depth. Hardy, Betjeman, Larkin all have loads of readers. Most of the poets favoured by academia don't.
I fear a big escalation against civilians. Which would inevitably lead to huge pressure on NATO to intervene. These conscripts haven't had much heart to fight their cousins and even replacing them with proper soldiers has an issue. But the Bravery of being out of range is strong- much easier to conduct war behind a screen with a joystick to target bombs and missiles.
The big escalation against civilians has been happening the past couple of days, in Kharkiv and Mariupol especially, but also Chernihiv, Kyiv and elsewhere.
The MoD intelligence update suggests that the big push against Kyiv is stuck. It may never come. It's plausible that, in a week's time, the Russians may have control of all the Black Sea coast, but have made little to no progress elsewhere, except in terms of civilian casualties and destruction of infrastructure. That creates a decision point. They could decide to push north towards Dnipro, but there's also the opportunity to declare the invasion a success and a ceasefire.
It won't be the victory Putin will have wanted, but Russia will have made some gains, and Ukraine is left shattered.
Russia is also left shattered. Ukraine will get global support for a rebuild, Russia will remain a pariah.
The key for Ukraine will be whether the EU is able and willing to carry through on the fine words being spoken now, and fast track them toward membership.
The truth is like poetry, and most people hate poetry.
What a dreadful thought. How can one 'hate' poetry?
Brighter morning here, weather-wise. Glad last night's gathering went well.
Side thought; Grandson is reading history and opines that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is similar to the Italian invasion of Ethiopia in the thirties; done to project strength and restore the glories of the past. As with Mussolini Putin is interested in his image rather tan his country's. And of course, if the Ethiopians had had decent weapons they'd have done a lot better than they did.
It does nothing for me - generally (there are a few exceptions). It leaves me cold.
Your attitude is also another reason: "What a dreadful thought". Yes, how *dare* someone not like something you like? Basically, there's a stench of tosserifism around poetry.
I said nothing about 'daring'. You have a point of view, which I quite frankly think is sad, but as the man said, I'd go a long way to defend your right to have it! Yes poets and poetry can be pretentious but so can prose.
There's been a lot of talk that this meeting of the Russian Federation Council is to declare martial law. It might be to declare some other things too, such as changes in the leadership structure somewhere, or to respond to internal power struggles.
The best that should be hoped for is an immediate ceasefire, a quick deal involving no missiles stationed or NATO, but no preconditions on defence infrastructure beyond that, in return for total withdrawal, non-inteference and recgnotion of Zelenskiy, as Russia hinted at yesterday.
If that coud happen as quickly as possible, some of the most debilitating sanctions could be withdrawn. If and when it's no longer pointing a gun to the world's head, the total collapse of a territorially huge nation of 144 million with nuclear weapons is *not* in the world's interest.
No, the total collapse of Putin's Russia absolutely is in the world's interest.
Pick up the pieces afterwards.
As we said in 1991.
I think the important part is to pick up the pieces after, i.e a just rather than a victor's peace. In 1919, the Allies were very short sighted - my understanding is that the French wanted bloody vengeance, the Americans wanted peace without harsh punishment and Lloyd George agreed with the Americans but couldn't sell it at home and vowed the crush the Hun. The result is contested, some say the treaty was the worst of both worlds, some say too lenient and others that it did not go far enough. For me, the proof is in the pudding and it certainly stored up problems in the future. Contest that with the situation post-1945. It wasn't perfect, but the allies had learned their lesson. The settlement, from what I can see, was more concerned with justice than outright punishment (which for justice's sake was required). Germany, Italy and Japan were, in due course, allowed to join the international order (mostly) and indeed became inextricably linked to it. The peace gave everyone a stake in the future (I'm going big picture here) and killed revanchist sentiment.
But we're getting way ahead of ourselves, here. The opportunity to remake the world order comes but rarely and is often squandered. If the end of this proves to be such a time, then Russia will need a stake in that world, but it is a very optimistic reading of the present situation to think that this is such a time.
I also reflect on the sanctions. We keep thinking that, since our actions are economic rather than military that Putin will not be able to respond militarily in kind. This thinking could be dangerously flawed. Japan bombed Pearl Harbor at least in part due to embargoes on oil. As the economy collapses, as Russians can't buy food or heat their homes, as the conventional war machine struggles for supply Putin could point (correctly albeit selectively) to Western sanctions as the cause and attack. I want to be clear, we need to do something and we can't roll over and show our collective tummy to the tyrant, but I don't think the danger has passed and sanctions don't keep us safe from military retaliation.
Fitch has downgraded Russia six steps in one move, from BBB to B.
That's a really big deal.
Most investment funds, pensions and insurance companies are usually required to only hold "investment grade" bonds.
And investment grade is a minimum of BBB-.
B is (counts it) four or five rungs below BBB-.
That's a lot of investment funds and insurance companies and pension funds that will, as of tomorrow, no longer be able to hold Russian government debt.
Is anyone in the Western world allowed to purchase Russian bonds anyway?
Beyond that, this:
Fascinating thread from Prof. Maxim Mironov on what sanctions are likely to mean for the Russian economy.
"My scientific conclusion... is that the Russian economy is fucked. Double fucked, because most Russians don't know what's coming."
This is worth a read. The professor quoted suggests:
+That Russia will soon suffer shortages of all sorts of basic goods, which are imported and which manufacturers are refusing to ship to the country (both because of risk of reputational damage, and because Russian importers would now struggle to pay for them)
+To the extent that Russia can turn to domestic production to fill the gaps, its factories are reliant on imported components and will soon grind to a halt anyway. This will also lead to a spike in unemployment and a further collapse in tax revenues, beyond those already suffered by the restrictions slapped on many of its exports
+More than half of Russia's foreign exchange reserves, which the Kremlin may have been banking on to cushion the effect of sanctions, have been seized - and much of the remainder is held as physical gold, which it will struggle to sell to foreign buyers
+Almost all Russian aircraft are imported and, since they will no longer be able to obtain spares, will soon be grounded. Civil aviation will grind to a halt, which is no small thing in a country spanning eleven time zones
+Russian agriculture relies heavily on imported seeds. These can eventually be replaced, but this is likely to lead to short-term deficiencies in a variety of crops
+Educated citizens crucial to the functioning of what's left of the Russian economy are starting to emigrate. The Government is likely to have to introduce exit visas to prevent them from escaping, or simply to close its borders altogether
None of this is going to change so long as Russia remains in Ukraine and, since it seems that Putin is completely committed to taking it, that means they won't change at all. It's not even clear to what extent he can rely on Xi to help him out in this instance. The Chinese may not have elected to condemn the invasion outright, but they've been fence sitting, keeping relations with Ukraine open, and careful to emphasise their traditional commitment to the inviolability of sovereign borders and that their relationship with Russia is a partnership rather than an alliance. One can only guess what's going on inside the CCP, but I would imagine that they're both horrified at the scarcely concealed nuclear blackmail aspect of all of this, and desperate to avoid a trade war with all their most important foreign customers by siding openly with Putin.
The ordinary Russian people are about to find out what life is like in North Korea, methinks.
The Russian economy is going to be very badly damaged, possibly to the point of no return. There is not yet a sense of panic, but as the infrastructure of the financial system gradually switches off and the complete shunning of Russia grows, even beyond official sanctions, there is a risk that they will literally fall part. In Estonia the leading supermarkets have removed all Russian goods from the shelves. Physical trade, let alone finance or even oil and gas, has also stopped dead.
These sanctions are an earthquake and the familiar landscape of Russian brands, from Aeroflot to Sberbank is at high risk of being levelled. Of course we know that "Russians are used to suffering", but even still the cardiac arrest of trade, finance, sport, culture, communications and diplomacy as the result of the insane whim of a senile criminal must give some pause, even amongst his henchmen.
Something similar, albeit of lesser magnitude, polished off Gorbachev.
And he was fully compos mentis even if his judgement was less than perfect at times.
Really? I thought Gorbachev recognised the inevitable economic collapse of the Soviet Union and effectively polished it (the USSR) off.
Gorbachev had the grace not to fight too hard against his own obsolescence.
I get the impression that Putin would consider accepting N Korea status if it meant he got to remain in power.
Still always surprised he's still with us. Like Jimmy Carter he is living history. Wonder what he thinks?
Putin congratulated Gorbachev on his 91st birthday yesterday.
While Gorbachev is no fan of Putin's repression, he also thinks the US became 'arrogant' after the fall of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War
The truth is like poetry, and most people hate poetry.
What a dreadful thought. How can one 'hate' poetry?
Brighter morning here, weather-wise. Glad last night's gathering went well.
Side thought; Grandson is reading history and opines that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is similar to the Italian invasion of Ethiopia in the thirties; done to project strength and restore the glories of the past. As with Mussolini Putin is interested in his image rather tan his country's. And of course, if the Ethiopians had had decent weapons they'd have done a lot better than they did.
It does nothing for me - generally (there are a few exceptions). It leaves me cold.
Your attitude is also another reason: "What a dreadful thought". Yes, how *dare* someone not like something you like? Basically, there's a stench of tosserifism around poetry.
I said nothing about 'daring'. You have a point of view, which I quite frankly think is sad, but as the man said, I'd go a long way to defend your right to have it! Yes poets and poetry can be pretentious but so can prose.
Indeed. But I also think it's sad that you think it's sad.
As an aside, I can find a sublime beauty in computer code (not my own, I hasten to add). An elegantly-considered algorithm. A unique way of implementing a function. I know most people won't see beauty in it, but I do.
(As a further aside, an example is the way FM radio broadcast mono and stereo - where mono is an amalgam of the two. Utterly elegant, and can be implemented with simple analogue circuitry.)
The truth is like poetry, and most people hate poetry.
What a dreadful thought. How can one 'hate' poetry?
Brighter morning here, weather-wise. Glad last night's gathering went well.
Side thought; Grandson is reading history and opines that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is similar to the Italian invasion of Ethiopia in the thirties; done to project strength and restore the glories of the past. As with Mussolini Putin is interested in his image rather tan his country's. And of course, if the Ethiopians had had decent weapons they'd have done a lot better than they did.
It does nothing for me - generally (there are a few exceptions). It leaves me cold.
Your attitude is also another reason: "What a dreadful thought". Yes, how *dare* someone not like something you like? Basically, there's a stench of tosserifism around poetry.
This is after several posts from you condemning outright one of your friends who dares to have a different view on Putin than you.
Well, I'm unsure trying to say all Ukrainians are Nazis as a way of justifying Russia's aggression is *quite* the same as arguing about poetry. But if you think it is, fair enough.
A friend of mine, who was a keen Corbyn supporter, a peacenik, and spent a lot of time helping refugees in the camps in France, just wrote on Facebook that whilst Russia should not have sent troops into Ukraine, "However the situation must be understood", followed by a link to an Oliver Stone's 2016 pro-Putin 'documentary' Ukraine on Fire.
Followed by a lot of comments backing his view. He was also pro-Assad and a chemical weapons denialist.
He then posts something else about media manipulation, followed by how the west are very duplicitous, and how the BBC's video of the missile attack on Karkiv seems to have come from Ukrannian-held territory, and why would Russian forces need to send a missile to destroy it when they were already in the city?
I know this guy. On a personal level he's lovely. But his views... Oh, his views.
I don't respond, but I'm so tempted. Worse, another friend - a genial, happy chap I'm very find of - 'liked' both comments.
By all means say your piece. I also think you view the world with a bit of a smug view yourself from your posts generally so also think a bit of advice is to not reject other opinion as wrong. People have the right to speak up on this and personally I think the most dangerous posts on here and elsewhere are the armchair soldiers escalating things that could end with the end of the world.
'Smug view of yourself'.
Well, fair enough if that's what you think - it's not the way I intend to portray myself. But then you might want to look at the way you portray yourself.
As for 'armchair soldiers escalating'. I have consistently argued that we needed a firmer response to Russia's aggressive acts. In 2014. In 2016. In 2018. I warned how the west's lame reaction to Assad's evils in Syria would embolden Russia. I feel absolutely no smugness in saying that I believe I was right, only sorrow.
Why do I mention this? Because people responding to those sorts of posts would respond with things like 'warmonger' or 'armchair soldiers'. Yet if we had acted then, we might have avoided Ukraine's current suffering. It was a hard choice to make. But we did not make it, and we have left ourselves with much harder choices now.
Only a fool wants conflict. But there are other types of fools as well.
And finally: my friend is in the wrong. Totally and utterly. Blaming the Ukrainians for the invasion - and especially as the 'Nazi' slur - is wrong.
In fact, I'd rather listen to a compilation of Radiohead's Greatest Hits (*) whilst eating pineapple pizza than listen to five minutes of Poetry Please?
(*) On loop, as it is so short
Same. I skip straight over it.
I think it works if you read it very slowly and then someone explains it to you. But, I can't be arsed - unless it's Haiku.
To me poetry is music through words. There is a rhythm and musicality in good poetry which enchants. And so it has to be spoken not simply read silently to hear that.
But the earliest poetry is the nursery rhymes that children learn or have spoken to them - the best way to get them to develop a good ear for the wonders of the English language: its rhythm, its structure, its musicality, its wonderful muscular expressiveness.
The truth is like poetry, and most people hate poetry.
What a dreadful thought. How can one 'hate' poetry?
Brighter morning here, weather-wise. Glad last night's gathering went well.
Side thought; Grandson is reading history and opines that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is similar to the Italian invasion of Ethiopia in the thirties; done to project strength and restore the glories of the past. As with Mussolini Putin is interested in his image rather tan his country's. And of course, if the Ethiopians had had decent weapons they'd have done a lot better than they did.
It does nothing for me - generally (there are a few exceptions). It leaves me cold.
Your attitude is also another reason: "What a dreadful thought". Yes, how *dare* someone not like something you like? Basically, there's a stench of tosserifism around poetry.
Comments
"My scientific conclusion... is that the Russian economy is fucked. Double fucked, because most Russians don't know what's coming."
Image is my amateurish translation. https://twitter.com/mironov_fm/status/1499092871265361927 https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1499157917399977987/photo/1
Compare cases and deaths. It's two very different stories
Both have kept COVID at bay with public health COVID zero-styled approaches.
Both finally saw Omicron break through.
Cases shot up in parallel.
https://twitter.com/infectiousdz/status/1499091943044919302?s=21
Still, he has the chance to play out his career like Churchill in just one respect; we can dump him the minute this crisis is out the way.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Versailles
...which worked out well.
His military has proven to be a paper tiger, and he’s too far down the road to back out now. The rest of the world is also too far down the road to be able to forgive him. Many of this week’s international decisions cannot and will not be undone for a long time.
Like Jimmy Carter he is living history.
Wonder what he thinks?
Source: https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/3-march-some-russian-columns-stuck-in-the-mud-and-were-abandoned
The MoD intelligence update suggests that the big push against Kyiv is stuck. It may never come. It's plausible that, in a week's time, the Russians may have control of all the Black Sea coast, but have made little to no progress elsewhere, except in terms of civilian casualties and destruction of infrastructure. That creates a decision point. They could decide to push north towards Dnipro, but there's also the opportunity to declare the invasion a success and a ceasefire.
It won't be the victory Putin will have wanted, but Russia will have made some gains, and Ukraine is left shattered.
https://thetimes.co.uk/article/nicola-sturgeon-ditches-backdrop-the-same-as-putin-navy-flag-3kb73czjc
https://twitter.com/KieranPAndrews/status/1499296320632336384
Former Cabinet Minister Rory Stewart claimed Ms Truss struggled to understand why he was "obsessed" with diplomacy.
"If a minor is involved in committing illegal actions using the Internet, the law establishes a penalty of up to 3 years in prison”
They’ll put kids in jail now
https://twitter.com/JamesAALongman/status/1499285135237206020
Let Russia collapse or disintegrate, the world will be a better place without Putin's Russia.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/russia-teach-school-children-about-ukraine-invasion-reports-2022-3?amp
While Gorbachev is no fan of Putin's repression, he also thinks the US became 'arrogant' after the fall of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War
https://tass.com/politics/1414765
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-gorbachev-putin-us-ukraine-ussr/31625526.html
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-21697201
IMHO it suffers a from either being too clever (Muldoon, Ashbery) or not clever enough (the stuff that gets read at funerals and weddings). The only poets that have a vast readership among people who read much at all are those who have something to say and happen to be geniuses of clarity, emotion and depth. Hardy, Betjeman, Larkin all have loads of readers. Most of the poets favoured by academia don't.
Remarkable moment caught on camera as Zelensky hears about the bombing of the Babyn Yar Holocaust memorial for the first time.
https://twitter.com/malonebarry/status/1499007215872655362
Yes poets and poetry can be pretentious but so can prose.
But we're getting way ahead of ourselves, here. The opportunity to remake the world order comes but rarely and is often squandered. If the end of this proves to be such a time, then Russia will need a stake in that world, but it is a very optimistic reading of the present situation to think that this is such a time.
I also reflect on the sanctions. We keep thinking that, since our actions are economic rather than military that Putin will not be able to respond militarily in kind. This thinking could be dangerously flawed. Japan bombed Pearl Harbor at least in part due to embargoes on oil. As the economy collapses, as Russians can't buy food or heat their homes, as the conventional war machine struggles for supply Putin could point (correctly albeit selectively) to Western sanctions as the cause and attack. I want to be clear, we need to do something and we can't roll over and show our collective tummy to the tyrant, but I don't think the danger has passed and sanctions don't keep us safe from military retaliation.
Could any statement by him make a difference?
As an aside, I can find a sublime beauty in computer code (not my own, I hasten to add). An elegantly-considered algorithm. A unique way of implementing a function. I know most people won't see beauty in it, but I do.
(As a further aside, an example is the way FM radio broadcast mono and stereo - where mono is an amalgam of the two. Utterly elegant, and can be implemented with simple analogue circuitry.)
Well, fair enough if that's what you think - it's not the way I intend to portray myself. But then you might want to look at the way you portray yourself.
As for 'armchair soldiers escalating'. I have consistently argued that we needed a firmer response to Russia's aggressive acts. In 2014. In 2016. In 2018. I warned how the west's lame reaction to Assad's evils in Syria would embolden Russia. I feel absolutely no smugness in saying that I believe I was right, only sorrow.
Why do I mention this? Because people responding to those sorts of posts would respond with things like 'warmonger' or 'armchair soldiers'. Yet if we had acted then, we might have avoided Ukraine's current suffering. It was a hard choice to make. But we did not make it, and we have left ourselves with much harder choices now.
Only a fool wants conflict. But there are other types of fools as well.
And finally: my friend is in the wrong. Totally and utterly. Blaming the Ukrainians for the invasion - and especially as the 'Nazi' slur - is wrong.
I fear Zelensky's success means he may end up as a modern day Viriathus, doomed to be assassinated for the crime of competent defiance.
But the earliest poetry is the nursery rhymes that children learn or have spoken to them - the best way to get them to develop a good ear for the wonders of the English language: its rhythm, its structure, its musicality, its wonderful muscular expressiveness.