"Several Russian warships have left Crimea and are heading to Odesa. An amphibious assault on Ukraine’s third largest city could come as soon as Thursday: U.S. officials"
Feels like Russia are doing loads of really high risk attacks for not much reason (see various VDV drops over the past few days). Given how telegraphed this attack has been, should be massive Russian casualties, with a lot of Neptunes and Javelins waiting for the landing vessels.
That's the third biggest city, no? They can try to stop Ukraine exporting grain but some of that is going to China. What happens to Chinese food prices? They import grain from Ukraine.
A friend of mine, who was a keen Corbyn supporter, a peacenik, and spent a lot of time helping refugees in the camps in France, just wrote on Facebook that whilst Russia should not have sent troops into Ukraine, "However the situation must be understood", followed by a link to an Oliver Stone's 2016 pro-Putin 'documentary' Ukraine on Fire.
Followed by a lot of comments backing his view. He was also pro-Assad and a chemical weapons denialist.
He then posts something else about media manipulation, followed by how the west are very duplicitous, and how the BBC's video of the missile attack on Karkiv seems to have come from Ukrannian-held territory, and why would Russian forces need to send a missile to destroy it when they were already in the city?
I know this guy. On a personal level he's lovely. But his views... Oh, his views.
I don't respond, but I'm so tempted. Worse, another friend - a genial, happy chap I'm very find of - 'liked' both comments.
I cant remember who, but old FCO hands (even back in 1999) were warning that the events in Balkans (Kosovo in particular would come back to bite......) I am no apologist whatsoever but the bombing of Belgrade, civilian trains (accidentially admittedly) and the Serb TV broadcasting service have come back to haunt us.
to have the troops and equipment to maintain order in Ukraine, avoid revolution at home, and invade Poland?
And don't forget Poland would be a massively harder target than Ukraine. Even before we discuss its NATO membership, it has more modern F16s (J block) than Ukraine had old Mig-29s. And it has more (and more modern) anti-tank missiles, tanks, etc etc.
I'm going to go into a Topping style rage here...
F-16 blocks are defined by numbers not letters. A 'J', that is an F-16C/DJ, is a Block 50/52 with the addition of the HARM missile avionics/launch computer and the AN/ASQ-213 HARM targeting system. This is a USAF only variant.
Poland have Block 50/52+ which adds JDAM capability, conformals and a few other upgrades.
Ukraine's Fulcrums have been through the MU1 upgrade program which improves the radar, adds GPS/GLONASS and lets them use Ukranian built versions of the R-27 Alamo. Some of the fleet (exact number unknown) have been through the MU2 upgrade in which Elbit adds a lot of Israeli avionics.
Thanks for the info,
One of the great things about PB is the way someone says something, then another person corrects it, adding more detail. Hence the rest of us *learn*.
"Several Russian warships have left Crimea and are heading to Odesa. An amphibious assault on Ukraine’s third largest city could come as soon as Thursday: U.S. officials"
Feels like Russia are doing loads of really high risk attacks for not much reason (see various VDV drops over the past few days). Given how telegraphed this attack has been, should be massive Russian casualties, with a lot of Neptunes and Javelins waiting for the landing vessels.
That's the third biggest city, no? They can try to stop Ukraine exporting grain but some of that is going to China. What happens to Chinese food prices? They import grain from Ukraine.
The number of people viewing the BBC Russian website has gone from 3.1m to 10.7m in the last week.
There was a young Ukrainian woman interviewed during the last 10 minutes of the Dotun Adebayo show on BBC 5 Live. OMG, one of the best interviewees I have heard in years. In any context.
If that young lady is anywhere near representative of modern Ukrainian society, Putin is fucked. Or the planet is fucked. One or the other is about to be destroyed. The Ukrainians are not going to give up short of being annihilated by multiple nuclear strikes.
"Several Russian warships have left Crimea and are heading to Odesa. An amphibious assault on Ukraine’s third largest city could come as soon as Thursday: U.S. officials"
Feels like Russia are doing loads of really high risk attacks for not much reason (see various VDV drops over the past few days). Given how telegraphed this attack has been, should be massive Russian casualties, with a lot of Neptunes and Javelins waiting for the landing vessels.
That's the third biggest city, no? They can try to stop Ukraine exporting grain but some of that is going to China. What happens to Chinese food prices? They import grain from Ukraine.
The number of people viewing the BBC Russian website has gone from 3.1m to 10.7m in the last week.
There was a young Ukrainian woman interviewed during the last 10 minutes of the Dotun Adebayo show on BBC 5 Live. OMG, one of the best interviewees I have heard in years. In any context.
If that young lady is anywhere near representative of modern Ukrainian society, Putin is fucked. Or the planet is fucked. One or the other is about to be destroyed. The Ukrainians are not going to give up short of being annihilated by multiple nuclear strikes.
This lady? https://twitter.com/kiraincongress Businesswoman turned politician, very charismatic and articulate in English interviews for the past few days.
"Several Russian warships have left Crimea and are heading to Odesa. An amphibious assault on Ukraine’s third largest city could come as soon as Thursday: U.S. officials"
Feels like Russia are doing loads of really high risk attacks for not much reason (see various VDV drops over the past few days). Given how telegraphed this attack has been, should be massive Russian casualties, with a lot of Neptunes and Javelins waiting for the landing vessels.
That's the third biggest city, no? They can try to stop Ukraine exporting grain but some of that is going to China. What happens to Chinese food prices? They import grain from Ukraine.
The number of people viewing the BBC Russian website has gone from 3.1m to 10.7m in the last week.
There was a young Ukrainian woman interviewed during the last 10 minutes of the Dotun Adebayo show on BBC 5 Live. OMG, one of the best interviewees I have heard in years. In any context.
If that young lady is anywhere near representative of modern Ukrainian society, Putin is fucked. Or the planet is fucked. One or the other is about to be destroyed. The Ukrainians are not going to give up short of being annihilated by multiple nuclear strikes.
This lady? https://twitter.com/kiraincongress Businesswoman turned politician, very charismatic and articulate in English interviews for the past few days.
"Several Russian warships have left Crimea and are heading to Odesa. An amphibious assault on Ukraine’s third largest city could come as soon as Thursday: U.S. officials"
Feels like Russia are doing loads of really high risk attacks for not much reason (see various VDV drops over the past few days). Given how telegraphed this attack has been, should be massive Russian casualties, with a lot of Neptunes and Javelins waiting for the landing vessels.
That's the third biggest city, no? They can try to stop Ukraine exporting grain but some of that is going to China. What happens to Chinese food prices? They import grain from Ukraine.
The number of people viewing the BBC Russian website has gone from 3.1m to 10.7m in the last week.
There was a young Ukrainian woman interviewed during the last 10 minutes of the Dotun Adebayo show on BBC 5 Live. OMG, one of the best interviewees I have heard in years. In any context.
If that young lady is anywhere near representative of modern Ukrainian society, Putin is fucked. Or the planet is fucked. One or the other is about to be destroyed. The Ukrainians are not going to give up short of being annihilated by multiple nuclear strikes.
That was an excellent interview. Thanks for mentioning it, Stuart.
I've been waiting for John Gray's first commentary on the Ukraine situation.
"The new age of disorder Putin represents a world the Western mind can no longer comprehend. The belief that liberalism will inevitably prevail is an illusion that Europe must abandon if it is to win a war of his creation. By John Gray" (£)
Innisfree is rather more comforting than the Yeats poem that sprang to my mind first in the current situation:
Turning and turning in the widening gyre The falcon cannot hear the falconer; Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold; Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world, The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.
Surely some revelation is at hand; Surely the Second Coming is at hand. The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi Troubles my sight: somewhere in sands of the desert A shape with lion body and the head of a man, A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun, Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it Reel shadows of the indignant desert birds. The darkness drops again; but now I know That twenty centuries of stony sleep Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle, And what rough beast, its hour come round at last, Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
"Several Russian warships have left Crimea and are heading to Odesa. An amphibious assault on Ukraine’s third largest city could come as soon as Thursday: U.S. officials"
Feels like Russia are doing loads of really high risk attacks for not much reason (see various VDV drops over the past few days). Given how telegraphed this attack has been, should be massive Russian casualties, with a lot of Neptunes and Javelins waiting for the landing vessels.
That's the third biggest city, no? They can try to stop Ukraine exporting grain but some of that is going to China. What happens to Chinese food prices? They import grain from Ukraine.
The number of people viewing the BBC Russian website has gone from 3.1m to 10.7m in the last week.
There was a young Ukrainian woman interviewed during the last 10 minutes of the Dotun Adebayo show on BBC 5 Live. OMG, one of the best interviewees I have heard in years. In any context.
If that young lady is anywhere near representative of modern Ukrainian society, Putin is fucked. Or the planet is fucked. One or the other is about to be destroyed. The Ukrainians are not going to give up short of being annihilated by multiple nuclear strikes.
I'm starting to think the Ukrainians might be able to do this, if the state of the Russian army so far is anything to go by. But maybe I'm being too optimistic.
I've been waiting for John Gray's first commentary on the Ukraine situation.
"The new age of disorder Putin represents a world the Western mind can no longer comprehend. The belief that liberalism will inevitably prevail is an illusion that Europe must abandon if it is to win a war of his creation. By John Gray" (£)
@Andy_JS A bit of a disappointment from John Gray. He shouldn't rush to get his take on things out. Events are moving too fast. Now isn't the time for a further meditation on the decline of Western liberalism. The change in my own outlook over the past week has been to drop the idea that there is some kind of tolerable post liberal order where we can be ruled by Trump and Putin. Gray doesn't explicitly advocate this, but it is the conclusion I have taken from his writing. A better answer is through the reinvention and resurgence of western liberal ideas. Even though our system has been poisoned by extremes of both decadance and identity politics, it is obviously favourable to living in Putins Russia, where you can get thown in jail or executed at the whim of a dysfunctional state. If you look at the Ukrainians, this is what they are rejecting, and the whole of Europe has woken up to what is going on. The change is a revolution: Putin is isolated from all his former allies and sympathisers. The full power of cancel culture is foist upon them, in a way that they cannot comprehend or process. The significance of all this is that Putin has provoked the West in to reinventing itself, as it has been doing for a thousand years. Decline and submission is not inevitable.
In fact, I'd rather listen to a compilation of Radiohead's Greatest Hits (*) whilst eating pineapple pizza than listen to five minutes of Poetry Please?
I've been waiting for John Gray's first commentary on the Ukraine situation.
"The new age of disorder Putin represents a world the Western mind can no longer comprehend. The belief that liberalism will inevitably prevail is an illusion that Europe must abandon if it is to win a war of his creation. By John Gray" (£)
@Andy_JS A bit of a disappointment from John Gray. He shouldn't rush to get his take on things out. Events are moving too fast. Now isn't the time for a further meditation on the decline of Western liberalism. The change in my own outlook over the past week has been to drop the idea that there is some kind of tolerable post liberal order where we can be ruled by Trump and Putin. Gray doesn't explicitly advocate this, but it is the conclusion I have taken from his writing. A better answer is through the reinvention and resurgence of western liberal ideas. Even though our system has been poisoned by extremes of both decadance and identity politics, it is obviously favourable to living in Putins Russia, where you can get thown in jail or executed at the whim of a dysfunctional state. If you look at the Ukrainians, this is what they are rejecting, and the whole of Europe has woken up to what is going on. The change is a revolution: Putin is isolated from all his former allies and sympathisers. The full power of cancel culture is foist upon them, in a way that they cannot comprehend or process. The significance of all this is that Putin has provoked the West in to reinventing itself, as it has been doing for a thousand years. Decline and submission is not inevitable.
On the available evidence, Western liberalism represents a world that Putin can no longer comprehend (if he ever did).
What is happening to the Belarus economy? Are they facing complete financial collapse too or are we going easy on them for now? Lukashenko only survived after Putin sent the troops in and looks incredibly vulnerable. Perhaps we're giving him time to cut a deal behind the scenes.
On topic, thank you for organising Mike and it was great to meet in person (at last) the Pbers. Hope everyone is not feeling too worse the wear this morning. And thanks to Smarkets as well for hosting.
Fitch has downgraded Russia six steps in one move, from BBB to B.
That's a really big deal.
Most investment funds, pensions and insurance companies are usually required to only hold "investment grade" bonds.
And investment grade is a minimum of BBB-.
B is (counts it) four or five rungs below BBB-.
That's a lot of investment funds and insurance companies and pension funds that will, as of tomorrow, no longer be able to hold Russian government debt.
Is anyone in the Western world allowed to purchase Russian bonds anyway?
Beyond that, this:
Fascinating thread from Prof. Maxim Mironov on what sanctions are likely to mean for the Russian economy.
"My scientific conclusion... is that the Russian economy is fucked. Double fucked, because most Russians don't know what's coming."
This is worth a read. The professor quoted suggests:
+That Russia will soon suffer shortages of all sorts of basic goods, which are imported and which manufacturers are refusing to ship to the country (both because of risk of reputational damage, and because Russian importers would now struggle to pay for them)
+To the extent that Russia can turn to domestic production to fill the gaps, its factories are reliant on imported components and will soon grind to a halt anyway. This will also lead to a spike in unemployment and a further collapse in tax revenues, beyond those already suffered by the restrictions slapped on many of its exports
+More than half of Russia's foreign exchange reserves, which the Kremlin may have been banking on to cushion the effect of sanctions, have been seized - and much of the remainder is held as physical gold, which it will struggle to sell to foreign buyers
+Almost all Russian aircraft are imported and, since they will no longer be able to obtain spares, will soon be grounded. Civil aviation will grind to a halt, which is no small thing in a country spanning eleven time zones
+Russian agriculture relies heavily on imported seeds. These can eventually be replaced, but this is likely to lead to short-term deficiencies in a variety of crops
+Educated citizens crucial to the functioning of what's left of the Russian economy are starting to emigrate. The Government is likely to have to introduce exit visas to prevent them from escaping, or simply to close its borders altogether
None of this is going to change so long as Russia remains in Ukraine and, since it seems that Putin is completely committed to taking it, that means they won't change at all. It's not even clear to what extent he can rely on Xi to help him out in this instance. The Chinese may not have elected to condemn the invasion outright, but they've been fence sitting, keeping relations with Ukraine open, and careful to emphasise their traditional commitment to the inviolability of sovereign borders and that their relationship with Russia is a partnership rather than an alliance. One can only guess what's going on inside the CCP, but I would imagine that they're both horrified at the scarcely concealed nuclear blackmail aspect of all of this, and desperate to avoid a trade war with all their most important foreign customers by siding openly with Putin.
The ordinary Russian people are about to find out what life is like in North Korea, methinks.
Has the government boosted the defence budget? Not seen anything.
Conscious that with Ukraine playing the finest hour role and NATO playing the US lend lease role, we are one pearl harbour away from being involved.
Are we using the time we have wisely?
In the short term there's very little that jacking up spending can do to improve our capabilities, of course.
In the long term I'd be astonished if there were any increase in the defence budget. The UK can already claim it's meeting the 2% floor, and what money the Treasury has left is needed, crudely speaking, for pacifying and bribing its elderly core vote.
It's not just foreign leaders. Is it possible Putin genuinely has some paranoid phobia about getting close to people, perhaps related to coronavirus?
The general assumption seems to be that Putin is terrified of Covid, although that much said I know that recent photos have been published of him meeting Lukashenko in which they're only sat a few feet from one another. Then again, perhaps on those occasions he was visiting Minsk, and his host lacked either an appropriately cavernous lair or a long enough table to allow for social mega distancing?
It's a brilliant, penetrating, powerful poem which cuts through where prose doesn't.
Thank you, El_Capitano.
I hate most verse with a few exceptions - fortunately 'poetry' can mean so much more - a piece of music, dance - omne of the most powerfully moving images for me has always been the silent scream of Juliet in the final scene of the Macmillan ballet as she discovers the dead Romeo beside her.
A friend of mine, who was a keen Corbyn supporter, a peacenik, and spent a lot of time helping refugees in the camps in France, just wrote on Facebook that whilst Russia should not have sent troops into Ukraine, "However the situation must be understood", followed by a link to an Oliver Stone's 2016 pro-Putin 'documentary' Ukraine on Fire.
Followed by a lot of comments backing his view. He was also pro-Assad and a chemical weapons denialist.
He then posts something else about media manipulation, followed by how the west are very duplicitous, and how the BBC's video of the missile attack on Karkiv seems to have come from Ukrannian-held territory, and why would Russian forces need to send a missile to destroy it when they were already in the city?
I know this guy. On a personal level he's lovely. But his views... Oh, his views.
I don't respond, but I'm so tempted. Worse, another friend - a genial, happy chap I'm very find of - 'liked' both comments.
Can I suggest that if you don't speak out, he is operating in as deaf a world as if he were in Russia. You can't look at Ukraine and think "that is terrible" - but then sit back from voicing your support to preserve a friendship. Confront him. Confront those who like his views. Let him know his view is at best niche - and not one you can leave unchallenged.
The information acquired from the various links on here gives you a broad-based idea of what is really going on - and why. Use it to make your case.
People in Ukraine are dying to have that free voice you are choosing to leave silent.
A friend of mine, who was a keen Corbyn supporter, a peacenik, and spent a lot of time helping refugees in the camps in France, just wrote on Facebook that whilst Russia should not have sent troops into Ukraine, "However the situation must be understood", followed by a link to an Oliver Stone's 2016 pro-Putin 'documentary' Ukraine on Fire.
Followed by a lot of comments backing his view. He was also pro-Assad and a chemical weapons denialist.
He then posts something else about media manipulation, followed by how the west are very duplicitous, and how the BBC's video of the missile attack on Karkiv seems to have come from Ukrannian-held territory, and why would Russian forces need to send a missile to destroy it when they were already in the city?
I know this guy. On a personal level he's lovely. But his views... Oh, his views.
I don't respond, but I'm so tempted. Worse, another friend - a genial, happy chap I'm very find of - 'liked' both comments.
Can I suggest that if you don't speak out, he is operating in as deaf a world as if he were in Russia.
Sometimes it's not worth it.
There are people in this world on all topics who are simply out with the fairies and I find my life a lot easier and happier if I don't engage. Occasionally even on here.
I'm sorry for you JJ because these are your friends.
"Several Russian warships have left Crimea and are heading to Odesa. An amphibious assault on Ukraine’s third largest city could come as soon as Thursday: U.S. officials"
Feels like Russia are doing loads of really high risk attacks for not much reason (see various VDV drops over the past few days). Given how telegraphed this attack has been, should be massive Russian casualties, with a lot of Neptunes and Javelins waiting for the landing vessels.
Odesa is the site of what sounds a significant naval mutiny by Russian marines earlier this week.
It's a brilliant, penetrating, powerful poem which cuts through where prose doesn't.
Thank you, El_Capitano.
I hate most verse with a few exceptions - fortunately 'poetry' can mean so much more - a piece of music, dance - omne of the most powerfully moving images for me has always been the silent scream of Juliet in the final scene of the Macmillan ballet as she discovers the dead Romeo beside her.
I'm intrigued that both you and JJ, two I have marked as pretty right-wing, dislike poetry. I wonder if there's a pb profiling possibility here ...
You're right though that poetry takes many forms. In fact, despite my previous comments I'm not one who believes the delineation between prose and poetry is always obvious. Take Thomas Hardy's glorious opening in Far From the Madding Crowd when he describes Gabriel Oak and the countryside and then our first encounter with Bathsheba. Or V.S. Naipul's A Bend in the River or even some of JRR Tolkien's prose in LOTR.
Kyiv is about the same size as Greater Manchester. Bigger, in fact.
I’m trying to get my head around the idea of occupying a city that big.
The UK (apart from a few weeks of honeymoon) never got a grip over Basrah the 7-8 years it was occupied, and the population wasnt even that hostile... a Russian presence of tens of thousands I imagine will struggle - though paramilitaries/police/Interior Ministry troops could be drafted in from across Russia (and from what I see Russian police arent exactly like UK police officers)
I suppose that the only way that they can gain control is the way that they've taken Kherson - tell the city to stop fighting otherwise it gets levelled. An option that was not available in Iraq.
You don't need to parade up and down too much.
Even that doesn't really gain you control. The city elders might say "we've given up", but that won't stop the young from taking potshots at Russian soldiers from time-to-time.
And sure, they can do the collective punishment thing, but that's a hard thing to maintain for any length of time.
And of course they have to do this in multiple large cities spread across a wide area. There is no scenario in which Russia wins. Eventually they will have to withdraw, and as long as Ukraine doesn't unnecessarily compromise on its sovereignty Putin will not be able to spin it as a win. Which means he will be replaced, due to having forced Russia through so much suffering for no benefit.
I don't understand this "no scenario where Russia wins" thing.
They take all the territory they want and kick out however much of the resident population they need to hold it. They kill or capture some anti-Russian politicians to make and example in other countries. Then they leave the rest.
That's winning, isn't it? If the goal is to build a sustainable pro-Russian state across the whole of the territory then maybe they can't do that, but that's not the only way to win, I think?
I think that is right. I think some 'wins' for Russia are not particularly expansive - small territorial, no puppet state etc - and come with a higher cost than they wanted, but if one goal was simply stamp Ukraine down, then that is achievable. NATO and the EU will support Ukraine, but they may not follow through long term as their words might indicate now, leaving Ukraine constantly under threat and destabilised.
Putin strikes me as a 'I don't care if I do not win, so long as you also lose' kind of guy
It's not just foreign leaders. Is it possible Putin genuinely has some paranoid phobia about getting close to people, perhaps related to coronavirus?
David Owen said on Newsnight that he thinks Putin is taking anabolic steroids and that he is likely worried that they have weakened his immune system making him more at risk of catching Covid.
In fact, I'd rather listen to a compilation of Radiohead's Greatest Hits (*) whilst eating pineapple pizza than listen to five minutes of Poetry Please?
(*) On loop, as it is so short
Same. I skip straight over it.
I think it works if you read it very slowly and then someone explains it to you. But, I can't be arsed - unless it's Haiku.
What is happening to the Belarus economy? Are they facing complete financial collapse too or are we going easy on them for now? Lukashenko only survived after Putin sent the troops in and looks incredibly vulnerable. Perhaps we're giving him time to cut a deal behind the scenes.
I think the Belarusian economy is more closed than the Russian economy, so is less affected by sanctions. This may be ignorance on my part, but you don't hear so much about Belarusian oligarchs, which suggests that they kept the state control of the economy since the collapse of the USSR.
A friend of mine, who was a keen Corbyn supporter, a peacenik, and spent a lot of time helping refugees in the camps in France, just wrote on Facebook that whilst Russia should not have sent troops into Ukraine, "However the situation must be understood", followed by a link to an Oliver Stone's 2016 pro-Putin 'documentary' Ukraine on Fire.
Followed by a lot of comments backing his view. He was also pro-Assad and a chemical weapons denialist.
He then posts something else about media manipulation, followed by how the west are very duplicitous, and how the BBC's video of the missile attack on Karkiv seems to have come from Ukrannian-held territory, and why would Russian forces need to send a missile to destroy it when they were already in the city?
I know this guy. On a personal level he's lovely. But his views... Oh, his views.
I don't respond, but I'm so tempted. Worse, another friend - a genial, happy chap I'm very find of - 'liked' both comments.
Can I suggest that if you don't speak out, he is operating in as deaf a world as if he were in Russia. You can't look at Ukraine and think "that is terrible" - but then sit back from voicing your support to preserve a friendship. Confront him. Confront those who like his views. Let him know his view is at best niche - and not one you can leave unchallenged.
The information acquired from the various links on here gives you a broad-based idea of what is really going on - and why. Use it to make your case.
People in Ukraine are dying to have that free voice you are choosing to leave silent.
I agree. I have argued with him before - mainly over Assad's culpability for the chemical attacks. And I get a massive pile-on from other people on his feed, and it gets exhausting very, very quickly. It's 100 times worse than PB. Utterly demoralising. But it's also interesting to hear another view, and realise that everyone who thinks this way might not be a Russian troll, and just someone who has fallen down a certain rabbit hole.
It's interesting in another way: when this happens, he jumps in to say that although I am wrong, people should stop it because I am a good guy. In this way, he's a bit like Corbyn - he acts like a voice of reason compared to the lunatic followers who surround him.
I would say I don't want to destroy our friendship, but I'm unsure I really want to remain friends with him if that's how he sees the world. And I sat next to this guy for a couple of years, worked with him. Liked him. I always knew he was a bit on the fringe of hippydom, but had no idea of the (ahem) strength of his views ...
Smart move by Ukraine to let POWs go free so long as their mothers pick them up - in Kiev. Only problem is how they would be able to get them there now.
Fitch has downgraded Russia six steps in one move, from BBB to B.
That's a really big deal.
Most investment funds, pensions and insurance companies are usually required to only hold "investment grade" bonds.
And investment grade is a minimum of BBB-.
B is (counts it) four or five rungs below BBB-.
That's a lot of investment funds and insurance companies and pension funds that will, as of tomorrow, no longer be able to hold Russian government debt.
Is anyone in the Western world allowed to purchase Russian bonds anyway?
Beyond that, this:
Fascinating thread from Prof. Maxim Mironov on what sanctions are likely to mean for the Russian economy.
"My scientific conclusion... is that the Russian economy is fucked. Double fucked, because most Russians don't know what's coming."
This is worth a read. The professor quoted suggests:
+That Russia will soon suffer shortages of all sorts of basic goods, which are imported and which manufacturers are refusing to ship to the country (both because of risk of reputational damage, and because Russian importers would now struggle to pay for them)
+To the extent that Russia can turn to domestic production to fill the gaps, its factories are reliant on imported components and will soon grind to a halt anyway. This will also lead to a spike in unemployment and a further collapse in tax revenues, beyond those already suffered by the restrictions slapped on many of its exports
+More than half of Russia's foreign exchange reserves, which the Kremlin may have been banking on to cushion the effect of sanctions, have been seized - and much of the remainder is held as physical gold, which it will struggle to sell to foreign buyers
+Almost all Russian aircraft are imported and, since they will no longer be able to obtain spares, will soon be grounded. Civil aviation will grind to a halt, which is no small thing in a country spanning eleven time zones
+Russian agriculture relies heavily on imported seeds. These can eventually be replaced, but this is likely to lead to short-term deficiencies in a variety of crops
+Educated citizens crucial to the functioning of what's left of the Russian economy are starting to emigrate. The Government is likely to have to introduce exit visas to prevent them from escaping, or simply to close its borders altogether
None of this is going to change so long as Russia remains in Ukraine and, since it seems that Putin is completely committed to taking it, that means they won't change at all. It's not even clear to what extent he can rely on Xi to help him out in this instance. The Chinese may not have elected to condemn the invasion outright, but they've been fence sitting, keeping relations with Ukraine open, and careful to emphasise their traditional commitment to the inviolability of sovereign borders and that their relationship with Russia is a partnership rather than an alliance. One can only guess what's going on inside the CCP, but I would imagine that they're both horrified at the scarcely concealed nuclear blackmail aspect of all of this, and desperate to avoid a trade war with all their most important foreign customers by siding openly with Putin.
The ordinary Russian people are about to find out what life is like in North Korea, methinks.
The Russian economy is going to be very badly damaged, possibly to the point of no return. There is not yet a sense of panic, but as the infrastructure of the financial system gradually switches off and the complete shunning of Russia grows, even beyond official sanctions, there is a risk that they will literally fall part. In Estonia the leading supermarkets have removed all Russian goods from the shelves. Physical trade, let alone finance or even oil and gas, has also stopped dead.
These sanctions are an earthquake and the familiar landscape of Russian brands, from Aeroflot to Sberbank is at high risk of being levelled. Of course we know that "Russians are used to suffering", but even still the cardiac arrest of trade, finance, sport, culture, communications and diplomacy as the result of the insane whim of a senile criminal must give some pause, even amongst his henchmen.
A friend of mine, who was a keen Corbyn supporter, a peacenik, and spent a lot of time helping refugees in the camps in France, just wrote on Facebook that whilst Russia should not have sent troops into Ukraine, "However the situation must be understood", followed by a link to an Oliver Stone's 2016 pro-Putin 'documentary' Ukraine on Fire.
Followed by a lot of comments backing his view. He was also pro-Assad and a chemical weapons denialist.
He then posts something else about media manipulation, followed by how the west are very duplicitous, and how the BBC's video of the missile attack on Karkiv seems to have come from Ukrannian-held territory, and why would Russian forces need to send a missile to destroy it when they were already in the city?
I know this guy. On a personal level he's lovely. But his views... Oh, his views.
I don't respond, but I'm so tempted. Worse, another friend - a genial, happy chap I'm very find of - 'liked' both comments.
Can I suggest that if you don't speak out, he is operating in as deaf a world as if he were in Russia. You can't look at Ukraine and think "that is terrible" - but then sit back from voicing your support to preserve a friendship. Confront him. Confront those who like his views. Let him know his view is at best niche - and not one you can leave unchallenged.
The information acquired from the various links on here gives you a broad-based idea of what is really going on - and why. Use it to make your case.
People in Ukraine are dying to have that free voice you are choosing to leave silent.
I agree. I have argued with him before - mainly over Assad's culpability for the chemical attacks. And I get a massive pile-on from other people on his feed, and it gets exhausting very, very quickly. It's 100 times worse than PB. Utterly demoralising. But it's also interesting to hear another view, and realise that everyone who thinks this way might not be a Russian troll, and just someone who has fallen down a certain rabbit hole.
It's interesting in another way: when this happens, he jumps in to say that although I am wrong, people should stop it because I am a good guy. In this way, he's a bit like Corbyn - he acts like a voice of reason compared to the lunatic followers who surround him.
I would say I don't want to destroy our friendship, but I'm unsure I really want to remain friends with him if that's how he sees the world. And I sat next to this guy for a couple of years, worked with him. Liked him. I always knew he was a bit on the fringe of hippydom, but had no idea of the (ahem) strength of his views ...
Suggest he comes here. If you want real support....!
Fitch has downgraded Russia six steps in one move, from BBB to B.
That's a really big deal.
Most investment funds, pensions and insurance companies are usually required to only hold "investment grade" bonds.
And investment grade is a minimum of BBB-.
B is (counts it) four or five rungs below BBB-.
That's a lot of investment funds and insurance companies and pension funds that will, as of tomorrow, no longer be able to hold Russian government debt.
Is anyone in the Western world allowed to purchase Russian bonds anyway?
Beyond that, this:
Fascinating thread from Prof. Maxim Mironov on what sanctions are likely to mean for the Russian economy.
"My scientific conclusion... is that the Russian economy is fucked. Double fucked, because most Russians don't know what's coming."
This is worth a read. The professor quoted suggests:
+That Russia will soon suffer shortages of all sorts of basic goods, which are imported and which manufacturers are refusing to ship to the country (both because of risk of reputational damage, and because Russian importers would now struggle to pay for them)
+To the extent that Russia can turn to domestic production to fill the gaps, its factories are reliant on imported components and will soon grind to a halt anyway. This will also lead to a spike in unemployment and a further collapse in tax revenues, beyond those already suffered by the restrictions slapped on many of its exports
+More than half of Russia's foreign exchange reserves, which the Kremlin may have been banking on to cushion the effect of sanctions, have been seized - and much of the remainder is held as physical gold, which it will struggle to sell to foreign buyers
+Almost all Russian aircraft are imported and, since they will no longer be able to obtain spares, will soon be grounded. Civil aviation will grind to a halt, which is no small thing in a country spanning eleven time zones
+Russian agriculture relies heavily on imported seeds. These can eventually be replaced, but this is likely to lead to short-term deficiencies in a variety of crops
+Educated citizens crucial to the functioning of what's left of the Russian economy are starting to emigrate. The Government is likely to have to introduce exit visas to prevent them from escaping, or simply to close its borders altogether
None of this is going to change so long as Russia remains in Ukraine and, since it seems that Putin is completely committed to taking it, that means they won't change at all. It's not even clear to what extent he can rely on Xi to help him out in this instance. The Chinese may not have elected to condemn the invasion outright, but they've been fence sitting, keeping relations with Ukraine open, and careful to emphasise their traditional commitment to the inviolability of sovereign borders and that their relationship with Russia is a partnership rather than an alliance. One can only guess what's going on inside the CCP, but I would imagine that they're both horrified at the scarcely concealed nuclear blackmail aspect of all of this, and desperate to avoid a trade war with all their most important foreign customers by siding openly with Putin.
The ordinary Russian people are about to find out what life is like in North Korea, methinks.
The Russian economy is going to be very badly damaged, possibly to the point of no return. There is not yet a sense of panic, but as the infrastructure of the financial system gradually switches off and the complete shunning of Russia grows, even beyond official sanctions, there is a risk that they will literally fall part. In Estonia the leading supermarkets have removed all Russian goods from the shelves. Physical trade, let alone finance or even oil and gas, has also stopped dead.
These sanctions are an earthquake and the familiar landscape of Russian brands, from Aeroflot to Sberbank is at high risk of being levelled. Of course we know that "Russians are used to suffering", but even still the cardiac arrest of trade, finance, sport, culture, communications and diplomacy as the result of the insane whim of a senile criminal must give some pause, even amongst his henchmen.
While there’s no doubt that Putin expected to see some sanctions against him, his thinking can only have been that they wouldn’t really bite too hard and the fighting war would be done by now.
He didn’t expect the unprecedented level of sanctions applied, the almost unanimous international support for them, and that he didn’t have half as much of an army as he thought he did. Then the Ukranians started fighting back, with well trained troops, some of the world’s most advanced weaponry, and a population absolutely up for the fight.
The truth is like poetry, and most people hate poetry.
Poetry is a distillation of expression and emotion. Like other distillations, fine in small doses, but not to be over indulged and not to everyones taste.
Fitch has downgraded Russia six steps in one move, from BBB to B.
That's a really big deal.
Most investment funds, pensions and insurance companies are usually required to only hold "investment grade" bonds.
And investment grade is a minimum of BBB-.
B is (counts it) four or five rungs below BBB-.
That's a lot of investment funds and insurance companies and pension funds that will, as of tomorrow, no longer be able to hold Russian government debt.
Is anyone in the Western world allowed to purchase Russian bonds anyway?
Beyond that, this:
Fascinating thread from Prof. Maxim Mironov on what sanctions are likely to mean for the Russian economy.
"My scientific conclusion... is that the Russian economy is fucked. Double fucked, because most Russians don't know what's coming."
This is worth a read. The professor quoted suggests:
+That Russia will soon suffer shortages of all sorts of basic goods, which are imported and which manufacturers are refusing to ship to the country (both because of risk of reputational damage, and because Russian importers would now struggle to pay for them)
+To the extent that Russia can turn to domestic production to fill the gaps, its factories are reliant on imported components and will soon grind to a halt anyway. This will also lead to a spike in unemployment and a further collapse in tax revenues, beyond those already suffered by the restrictions slapped on many of its exports
+More than half of Russia's foreign exchange reserves, which the Kremlin may have been banking on to cushion the effect of sanctions, have been seized - and much of the remainder is held as physical gold, which it will struggle to sell to foreign buyers
+Almost all Russian aircraft are imported and, since they will no longer be able to obtain spares, will soon be grounded. Civil aviation will grind to a halt, which is no small thing in a country spanning eleven time zones
+Russian agriculture relies heavily on imported seeds. These can eventually be replaced, but this is likely to lead to short-term deficiencies in a variety of crops
+Educated citizens crucial to the functioning of what's left of the Russian economy are starting to emigrate. The Government is likely to have to introduce exit visas to prevent them from escaping, or simply to close its borders altogether
None of this is going to change so long as Russia remains in Ukraine and, since it seems that Putin is completely committed to taking it, that means they won't change at all. It's not even clear to what extent he can rely on Xi to help him out in this instance. The Chinese may not have elected to condemn the invasion outright, but they've been fence sitting, keeping relations with Ukraine open, and careful to emphasise their traditional commitment to the inviolability of sovereign borders and that their relationship with Russia is a partnership rather than an alliance. One can only guess what's going on inside the CCP, but I would imagine that they're both horrified at the scarcely concealed nuclear blackmail aspect of all of this, and desperate to avoid a trade war with all their most important foreign customers by siding openly with Putin.
The ordinary Russian people are about to find out what life is like in North Korea, methinks.
The Russian economy is going to be very badly damaged, possibly to the point of no return. There is not yet a sense of panic, but as the infrastructure of the financial system gradually switches off and the complete shunning of Russia grows, even beyond official sanctions, there is a risk that they will literally fall part. In Estonia the leading supermarkets have removed all Russian goods from the shelves. Physical trade, let alone finance or even oil and gas, has also stopped dead.
These sanctions are an earthquake and the familiar landscape of Russian brands, from Aeroflot to Sberbank is at high risk of being levelled. Of course we know that "Russians are used to suffering", but even still the cardiac arrest of trade, finance, sport, culture, communications and diplomacy as the result of the insane whim of a senile criminal must give some pause, even amongst his henchmen.
While there’s no doubt that Putin expected to see some sanctions against him, his thinking can only have been that they wouldn’t really bite too hard and the fighting war would be done by now.
He didn’t expect the unprecedented level of sanctions applied, the almost unanimous international support for them, and that he didn’t have half as much of an army as he thought he did. Then the Ukranians started fighting back, with well trained troops, some of the world’s most advanced weaponry, and a population absolutely up for the fight.
Fitch has downgraded Russia six steps in one move, from BBB to B.
That's a really big deal.
Most investment funds, pensions and insurance companies are usually required to only hold "investment grade" bonds.
And investment grade is a minimum of BBB-.
B is (counts it) four or five rungs below BBB-.
That's a lot of investment funds and insurance companies and pension funds that will, as of tomorrow, no longer be able to hold Russian government debt.
Is anyone in the Western world allowed to purchase Russian bonds anyway?
Beyond that, this:
Fascinating thread from Prof. Maxim Mironov on what sanctions are likely to mean for the Russian economy.
"My scientific conclusion... is that the Russian economy is fucked. Double fucked, because most Russians don't know what's coming."
This is worth a read. The professor quoted suggests:
+That Russia will soon suffer shortages of all sorts of basic goods, which are imported and which manufacturers are refusing to ship to the country (both because of risk of reputational damage, and because Russian importers would now struggle to pay for them)
+To the extent that Russia can turn to domestic production to fill the gaps, its factories are reliant on imported components and will soon grind to a halt anyway. This will also lead to a spike in unemployment and a further collapse in tax revenues, beyond those already suffered by the restrictions slapped on many of its exports
+More than half of Russia's foreign exchange reserves, which the Kremlin may have been banking on to cushion the effect of sanctions, have been seized - and much of the remainder is held as physical gold, which it will struggle to sell to foreign buyers
+Almost all Russian aircraft are imported and, since they will no longer be able to obtain spares, will soon be grounded. Civil aviation will grind to a halt, which is no small thing in a country spanning eleven time zones
+Russian agriculture relies heavily on imported seeds. These can eventually be replaced, but this is likely to lead to short-term deficiencies in a variety of crops
+Educated citizens crucial to the functioning of what's left of the Russian economy are starting to emigrate. The Government is likely to have to introduce exit visas to prevent them from escaping, or simply to close its borders altogether
None of this is going to change so long as Russia remains in Ukraine and, since it seems that Putin is completely committed to taking it, that means they won't change at all. It's not even clear to what extent he can rely on Xi to help him out in this instance. The Chinese may not have elected to condemn the invasion outright, but they've been fence sitting, keeping relations with Ukraine open, and careful to emphasise their traditional commitment to the inviolability of sovereign borders and that their relationship with Russia is a partnership rather than an alliance. One can only guess what's going on inside the CCP, but I would imagine that they're both horrified at the scarcely concealed nuclear blackmail aspect of all of this, and desperate to avoid a trade war with all their most important foreign customers by siding openly with Putin.
The ordinary Russian people are about to find out what life is like in North Korea, methinks.
The Russian economy is going to be very badly damaged, possibly to the point of no return. There is not yet a sense of panic, but as the infrastructure of the financial system gradually switches off and the complete shunning of Russia grows, even beyond official sanctions, there is a risk that they will literally fall part. In Estonia the leading supermarkets have removed all Russian goods from the shelves. Physical trade, let alone finance or even oil and gas, has also stopped dead.
These sanctions are an earthquake and the familiar landscape of Russian brands, from Aeroflot to Sberbank is at high risk of being levelled. Of course we know that "Russians are used to suffering", but even still the cardiac arrest of trade, finance, sport, culture, communications and diplomacy as the result of the insane whim of a senile criminal must give some pause, even amongst his henchmen.
Something similar, albeit of lesser magnitude, polished off Gorbachev.
And he was fully compos mentis even if his judgement was less than perfect at times.
A friend of mine, who was a keen Corbyn supporter, a peacenik, and spent a lot of time helping refugees in the camps in France, just wrote on Facebook that whilst Russia should not have sent troops into Ukraine, "However the situation must be understood", followed by a link to an Oliver Stone's 2016 pro-Putin 'documentary' Ukraine on Fire.
Followed by a lot of comments backing his view. He was also pro-Assad and a chemical weapons denialist.
He then posts something else about media manipulation, followed by how the west are very duplicitous, and how the BBC's video of the missile attack on Karkiv seems to have come from Ukrannian-held territory, and why would Russian forces need to send a missile to destroy it when they were already in the city?
I know this guy. On a personal level he's lovely. But his views... Oh, his views.
I don't respond, but I'm so tempted. Worse, another friend - a genial, happy chap I'm very find of - 'liked' both comments.
Can I suggest that if you don't speak out, he is operating in as deaf a world as if he were in Russia. You can't look at Ukraine and think "that is terrible" - but then sit back from voicing your support to preserve a friendship. Confront him. Confront those who like his views. Let him know his view is at best niche - and not one you can leave unchallenged.
The information acquired from the various links on here gives you a broad-based idea of what is really going on - and why. Use it to make your case.
People in Ukraine are dying to have that free voice you are choosing to leave silent.
I agree. I have argued with him before - mainly over Assad's culpability for the chemical attacks. And I get a massive pile-on from other people on his feed, and it gets exhausting very, very quickly. It's 100 times worse than PB. Utterly demoralising. But it's also interesting to hear another view, and realise that everyone who thinks this way might not be a Russian troll, and just someone who has fallen down a certain rabbit hole.
It's interesting in another way: when this happens, he jumps in to say that although I am wrong, people should stop it because I am a good guy. In this way, he's a bit like Corbyn - he acts like a voice of reason compared to the lunatic followers who surround him.
I would say I don't want to destroy our friendship, but I'm unsure I really want to remain friends with him if that's how he sees the world. And I sat next to this guy for a couple of years, worked with him. Liked him. I always knew he was a bit on the fringe of hippydom, but had no idea of the (ahem) strength of his views ...
People make up simple stories in order to make sense of a complex world. Always has been the case. It is part of the human condition. It can be seen on PB. It is why free debate in the classical liberal tradition is so important; it means that these stories can be scrutinised and challenged. We would do well to remind ourselves of the importance of this tradition, and defend it from those who seek to destroy it.
In short: for a military barrier against the west, for oil and gas, and for water.
It does seem rather suspicious that the areas of Ukraine and Moldova that Russia seems to have been interfering most with are the areas with gas and oil ...
The truth is like poetry, and most people hate poetry.
What a dreadful thought. How can one 'hate' poetry?
Brighter morning here, weather-wise. Glad last night's gathering went well.
Side thought; Grandson is reading history and opines that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is similar to the Italian invasion of Ethiopia in the thirties; done to project strength and restore the glories of the past. As with Mussolini Putin is interested in his image rather tan his country's. And of course, if the Ethiopians had had decent weapons they'd have done a lot better than they did.
Athletes from #Russia and #Belarus now banned from the #Beijing Paralympics! Original decision to allow them to compete has been overturned. Apparently too many other teams said they would pull out if Russia's team was allowed to compete after the invasion of #Ukraine! #China
Fitch has downgraded Russia six steps in one move, from BBB to B.
That's a really big deal.
Most investment funds, pensions and insurance companies are usually required to only hold "investment grade" bonds.
And investment grade is a minimum of BBB-.
B is (counts it) four or five rungs below BBB-.
That's a lot of investment funds and insurance companies and pension funds that will, as of tomorrow, no longer be able to hold Russian government debt.
Is anyone in the Western world allowed to purchase Russian bonds anyway?
Beyond that, this:
Fascinating thread from Prof. Maxim Mironov on what sanctions are likely to mean for the Russian economy.
"My scientific conclusion... is that the Russian economy is fucked. Double fucked, because most Russians don't know what's coming."
This is worth a read. The professor quoted suggests:
+That Russia will soon suffer shortages of all sorts of basic goods, which are imported and which manufacturers are refusing to ship to the country (both because of risk of reputational damage, and because Russian importers would now struggle to pay for them)
+To the extent that Russia can turn to domestic production to fill the gaps, its factories are reliant on imported components and will soon grind to a halt anyway. This will also lead to a spike in unemployment and a further collapse in tax revenues, beyond those already suffered by the restrictions slapped on many of its exports
+More than half of Russia's foreign exchange reserves, which the Kremlin may have been banking on to cushion the effect of sanctions, have been seized - and much of the remainder is held as physical gold, which it will struggle to sell to foreign buyers
+Almost all Russian aircraft are imported and, since they will no longer be able to obtain spares, will soon be grounded. Civil aviation will grind to a halt, which is no small thing in a country spanning eleven time zones
+Russian agriculture relies heavily on imported seeds. These can eventually be replaced, but this is likely to lead to short-term deficiencies in a variety of crops
+Educated citizens crucial to the functioning of what's left of the Russian economy are starting to emigrate. The Government is likely to have to introduce exit visas to prevent them from escaping, or simply to close its borders altogether
None of this is going to change so long as Russia remains in Ukraine and, since it seems that Putin is completely committed to taking it, that means they won't change at all. It's not even clear to what extent he can rely on Xi to help him out in this instance. The Chinese may not have elected to condemn the invasion outright, but they've been fence sitting, keeping relations with Ukraine open, and careful to emphasise their traditional commitment to the inviolability of sovereign borders and that their relationship with Russia is a partnership rather than an alliance. One can only guess what's going on inside the CCP, but I would imagine that they're both horrified at the scarcely concealed nuclear blackmail aspect of all of this, and desperate to avoid a trade war with all their most important foreign customers by siding openly with Putin.
The ordinary Russian people are about to find out what life is like in North Korea, methinks.
The Russian economy is going to be very badly damaged, possibly to the point of no return. There is not yet a sense of panic, but as the infrastructure of the financial system gradually switches off and the complete shunning of Russia grows, even beyond official sanctions, there is a risk that they will literally fall part. In Estonia the leading supermarkets have removed all Russian goods from the shelves. Physical trade, let alone finance or even oil and gas, has also stopped dead.
These sanctions are an earthquake and the familiar landscape of Russian brands, from Aeroflot to Sberbank is at high risk of being levelled. Of course we know that "Russians are used to suffering", but even still the cardiac arrest of trade, finance, sport, culture, communications and diplomacy as the result of the insane whim of a senile criminal must give some pause, even amongst his henchmen.
Something similar, albeit of lesser magnitude, polished off Gorbachev.
And he was fully compos mentis even if his judgement was less than perfect at times.
Does Estonia still have a sizeable Russian minority, courtesy of the Soviet period?
Athletes from #Russia and #Belarus now banned from the #Beijing Paralympics! Original decision to allow them to compete has been overturned. Apparently too many other teams said they would pull out if Russia's team was allowed to compete after the invasion of #Ukraine! #China
Well done to the Olympic Committees of all the countries who said they would withdraw.
The “ROC” was embarrassing enough for Futin, but seeing no athletes there at all will spare him from having to watch a drugged-up child fall over on the ice really annoy him.
Incidentally, if that video is correct and oil and gas is a major motivator for Russia (RCS or Richard might know more about the amount, accessibility and value of resources), then give them Crimea. Just don't let them have the natural resources offshore.
They can keep the land and people, but not the resources.
The truth is like poetry, and most people hate poetry.
What a dreadful thought. How can one 'hate' poetry?
Brighter morning here, weather-wise. Glad last night's gathering went well.
Side thought; Grandson is reading history and opines that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is similar to the Italian invasion of Ethiopia in the thirties; done to project strength and restore the glories of the past. As with Mussolini Putin is interested in his image rather tan his country's. And of course, if the Ethiopians had had decent weapons they'd have done a lot better than they did.
It does nothing for me - generally (there are a few exceptions). It leaves me cold.
Your attitude is also another reason: "What a dreadful thought". Yes, how *dare* someone not like something you like? Basically, there's a stench of tosserifism around poetry.
Smart move by Ukraine to let POWs go free so long as their mothers pick them up - in Kiev. Only problem is how they would be able to get them there now.
Russian POW's may be safer with the Ukrainians than their own army.
It's not just foreign leaders. Is it possible Putin genuinely has some paranoid phobia about getting close to people, perhaps related to coronavirus?
David Owen said on Newsnight that he thinks Putin is taking anabolic steroids and that he is likely worried that they have weakened his immune system making him more at risk of catching Covid.
The alternative and I think likeliest explanation is paranoia. He has the space for security. Much harder to kill him from a distance. If you approach uninvited you are stopped, possibly in a permenant way. If it is covid there would be no exceptions.
Interest rates up from 9.5 to 20% Rouble down by a third Financial system cut off Stock Market closed Banks on the verge of collapse Martial law planned for tomorrow
They are even calling up reservists. Newsnight showed a RT video of a group of smiling reservists who Mark Urban wryly noted looked distinctly mature i.e over 50.
Are you sure they weren't simply filming last night's gathering?
#UPDATE Fitch and Moody's slashes Russia's sovereign debt to so-called "junk" status, or the category of countries at risk of not being able to repay their debt.
Moody's downgraded the rating on Russian long-term debt from Baa3 to B3 while Fitch lowered its rating from BBB to B
Smart move by Ukraine to let POWs go free so long as their mothers pick them up - in Kiev. Only problem is how they would be able to get them there now.
Russian POW's may be safer with the Ukrainians than their own army.
Fair point. The Ukranians do seem to be looking after them well.
Can’t imagine how the Russian officers might treat their failures and deserters.
A friend of mine, who was a keen Corbyn supporter, a peacenik, and spent a lot of time helping refugees in the camps in France, just wrote on Facebook that whilst Russia should not have sent troops into Ukraine, "However the situation must be understood", followed by a link to an Oliver Stone's 2016 pro-Putin 'documentary' Ukraine on Fire.
Followed by a lot of comments backing his view. He was also pro-Assad and a chemical weapons denialist.
He then posts something else about media manipulation, followed by how the west are very duplicitous, and how the BBC's video of the missile attack on Karkiv seems to have come from Ukrannian-held territory, and why would Russian forces need to send a missile to destroy it when they were already in the city?
I know this guy. On a personal level he's lovely. But his views... Oh, his views.
I don't respond, but I'm so tempted. Worse, another friend - a genial, happy chap I'm very find of - 'liked' both comments.
By all means say your piece. I also think you view the world with a bit of a smug view yourself from your posts generally so also think a bit of advice is to not reject other opinion as wrong. People have the right to speak up on this and personally I think the most dangerous posts on here and elsewhere are the armchair soldiers escalating things that could end with the end of the world.
Not quite forming a de facto No Fly Zone - but you soon aren't going to last long flying a Russian chopper over Ukraine. And funny how many of their fixed wing plots need to have emergency wisdom tooth removal....
The propoganda machine will say that’s just a NATO conspiracy to hurt Russian stocks overseas. The *real* stock market, in Moscow, is at the same level now as it was six days ago.
There's been a lot of talk that this meeting of the Russian Federation Council is to declare martial law. It might be to declare some other things too, such as changes in the leadership structure somewhere, or to respond to internal power struggles.
The best that should be hoped for is an immediate ceasefire, a quick deal involving no missiles stationed or NATO, but no preconditions on defence infrastructure beyond that, in return for total withdrawal, non-inteference and recgnotion of Zelenskiy, as Russia hinted at yesterday.
If that coud happen as quickly as possible, some of the most debilitating sanctions could be withdrawn. If and when it's no longer pointing a gun to the world's head, the total collapse of a territorially huge nation of 144 million with nuclear weapons is *not* in the world's interest.
"Several Russian warships have left Crimea and are heading to Odesa. An amphibious assault on Ukraine’s third largest city could come as soon as Thursday: U.S. officials"
Feels like Russia are doing loads of really high risk attacks for not much reason (see various VDV drops over the past few days). Given how telegraphed this attack has been, should be massive Russian casualties, with a lot of Neptunes and Javelins waiting for the landing vessels.
That feeds back to the campaign map 'leaked' by Belarus. One more thrust to come, I think?
I was going to post something else this morning, but that video...
This is what its starting to feel like. Putin sits in the Kremlin surrounded by supplicants whom he screams at. He plots a glorious return to the greater rodina, and tells his men to prepare for the operation. Yes, they reply.
Meanwhile the Russian army is a shell of its former strength, can't even maintain its vehicles in peacetime, can't get enough troops to do the job so pressgangs teachers and college staff.
Putin expects a swift and conclusive drive into the land of the fascists to remove the imperialist puppets and replace the government with true patriots. Instead we have this bogged-down fiasco.
A point of departure is imminent. Russia may not have troops and trucks but it still has bigger offensive weapons of the air. The Ukranians aren't really our cousins any more, they are westerners and need to be punished. I'm already a pariah and if this goes on much longer the economy is at risk. So why not just bomb Ukraine into submission? The civilians are all guilty of fascist insurrection anyway and we need to stop this resistance to the rodina.
I fear a big escalation against civilians. Which would inevitably lead to huge pressure on NATO to intervene. These conscripts haven't had much heart to fight their cousins and even replacing them with proper soldiers has an issue. But the Bravery of being out of range is strong- much easier to conduct war behind a screen with a joystick to target bombs and missiles.
The truth is like poetry, and most people hate poetry.
What a dreadful thought. How can one 'hate' poetry?
Brighter morning here, weather-wise. Glad last night's gathering went well.
Side thought; Grandson is reading history and opines that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is similar to the Italian invasion of Ethiopia in the thirties; done to project strength and restore the glories of the past. As with Mussolini Putin is interested in his image rather tan his country's. And of course, if the Ethiopians had had decent weapons they'd have done a lot better than they did.
It does nothing for me - generally (there are a few exceptions). It leaves me cold.
Your attitude is also another reason: "What a dreadful thought". Yes, how *dare* someone not like something you like? Basically, there's a stench of tosserifism around poetry.
Whilst pretty neutral on poetry myself. If you like it it probably means you are built in a certain way and if you don't you are just built in another way. I would be careful about calling people tossers though for promoting its virtue or even not understanding how you cannot like it given you seem to be larging it up on here asking if a friend's view on the war is so ridiculous you want to not be friend with them. People may think you are a bit of err tosser
There's been a lot of talk that this meeting of the Russian Federation Council is to declare martial law. It might be to declare some other things too, such as changes in leadership somewhere.
The best that should be hoped for is an immediate ceasefire, a quick deal involving no missiles stationed or NATO, but no preconditions on defence infrastructure beyond that, in return for total withdrawal, non-inteference and recgnotion of Zelenskiy, as Russia hinted at yesterday.
If that coud happen as quickly as possible, some of the most debilitating sanctions could be withdrawn. If and when it's no longer pointing a gun to the world's head, the total collapse of a territorially huge nation of 144 million is *not* in the world's interest.
Nah, Puck Futin. Those sanctions are in for at least six months, after he withdraws to the pre-2014 border, pays $10bn into a damage fund and $1m to the family of each dead Ukranian.
If he doesn’t withdraw, they ratchet up as fast as the West can send NLAWs to Lviv.
This is what its starting to feel like. Putin sits in the Kremlin surrounded by supplicants whom he screams at. He plots a glorious return to the greater rodina, and tells his men to prepare for the operation. Yes, they reply.
While Russian State TV pumps out updates on their glorious denazification mission, I am struck by a UK minister on TV this morning still shamelessly boasting about our refugee response.
"It is a big offer."
Security Minister Damian Hinds says "hundreds of thousands" of people fleeing Ukraine will be eligible for the UK's extended family and community sponsorship programmes.
There's been a lot of talk that this meeting of the Russian Federation Council is to declare martial law. It might be to declare some other things too, such as changes in leadership somewhere.
The best that should be hoped for is an immediate ceasefire, a quick deal involving no missiles stationed or NATO, but no preconditions on defence infrastructure beyond that, in return for total withdrawal, non-inteference and recgnotion of Zelenskiy, as Russia hinted at yesterday.
If that coud happen as quickly as possible, some of the most debilitating sanctions could be withdrawn. If and when it's no longer pointing a gun to the world's head, the total collapse of a territorially huge nation of 144 million is *not* in the world's interest.
Nah, Puck Futin. Those sanctions are in for at least six months, after he withdraws to the pre-2014 border, pays $10bn into a damage fund and $1m to the family of each dead Ukranian.
If he doesn’t withdraw, they ratchet up as fast as the West can send NLAWs to Lviv.
Six months of those kind of sanctions could cause absolutely everything to collapse in Russia, including a lot of those same unsecured nuclear weapons that have terrified the world in the last week. This is the same kind of reason the West orginally acquiesced with Putin, ironically, and it wouldn't be good.
There's been a lot of talk that this meeting of the Russian Federation Council is to declare martial law. It might be to declare some other things too, such as changes in the leadership structure somewhere, or to respond to internal power struggles.
The best that should be hoped for is an immediate ceasefire, a quick deal involving no missiles stationed or NATO, but no preconditions on defence infrastructure beyond that, in return for total withdrawal, non-inteference and recgnotion of Zelenskiy, as Russia hinted at yesterday.
If that coud happen as quickly as possible, some of the most debilitating sanctions could be withdrawn. If and when it's no longer pointing a gun to the world's head, the total collapse of a territorially huge nation of 144 million with nuclear weapons is *not* in the world's interest.
Russia really needs to give a little more than that. There is nothing in there that will deter Russia from building up its troops once more and trying again in five years - it is all about what they will gain.
Russia is a repeated aggressor. Whilst we should not humiliate them, neither can they (or other countries) think this sort of behaviour can be advantageous.
As I said below: surrendering the mineral resources to help rebuild Ukraine might be a place to start. And it'll indicate where Russia's real interests lie.
Has the government boosted the defence budget? Not seen anything.
Conscious that with Ukraine playing the finest hour role and NATO playing the US lend lease role, we are one pearl harbour away from being involved.
Are we using the time we have wisely?
We have spent a decade cutting like crazy following a few more decades where we were unwinding post cold war. Do you really think this government is going to decisively do anything the way the Germans have done?
Unless Putin abruptly gets removed and a pro-western government immediately takes office there, we need to beef ourselves up. This PM responded to that need by mocking the Tory chair of the Defence Select Committee (and former Lieutenant Colonel in the army) of wanting cold war style tank battles.
Its funny how the last few remaining Tory sympathisers have used this crisis as "lets not bash Boris" excuses even though the man is a direct menace to our security by leaving us unprepared for the future.
Fitch has downgraded Russia six steps in one move, from BBB to B.
That's a really big deal.
Most investment funds, pensions and insurance companies are usually required to only hold "investment grade" bonds.
And investment grade is a minimum of BBB-.
B is (counts it) four or five rungs below BBB-.
That's a lot of investment funds and insurance companies and pension funds that will, as of tomorrow, no longer be able to hold Russian government debt.
Is anyone in the Western world allowed to purchase Russian bonds anyway?
Beyond that, this:
Fascinating thread from Prof. Maxim Mironov on what sanctions are likely to mean for the Russian economy.
"My scientific conclusion... is that the Russian economy is fucked. Double fucked, because most Russians don't know what's coming."
This is worth a read. The professor quoted suggests:
+That Russia will soon suffer shortages of all sorts of basic goods, which are imported and which manufacturers are refusing to ship to the country (both because of risk of reputational damage, and because Russian importers would now struggle to pay for them)
+To the extent that Russia can turn to domestic production to fill the gaps, its factories are reliant on imported components and will soon grind to a halt anyway. This will also lead to a spike in unemployment and a further collapse in tax revenues, beyond those already suffered by the restrictions slapped on many of its exports
+More than half of Russia's foreign exchange reserves, which the Kremlin may have been banking on to cushion the effect of sanctions, have been seized - and much of the remainder is held as physical gold, which it will struggle to sell to foreign buyers
+Almost all Russian aircraft are imported and, since they will no longer be able to obtain spares, will soon be grounded. Civil aviation will grind to a halt, which is no small thing in a country spanning eleven time zones
+Russian agriculture relies heavily on imported seeds. These can eventually be replaced, but this is likely to lead to short-term deficiencies in a variety of crops
+Educated citizens crucial to the functioning of what's left of the Russian economy are starting to emigrate. The Government is likely to have to introduce exit visas to prevent them from escaping, or simply to close its borders altogether
None of this is going to change so long as Russia remains in Ukraine and, since it seems that Putin is completely committed to taking it, that means they won't change at all. It's not even clear to what extent he can rely on Xi to help him out in this instance. The Chinese may not have elected to condemn the invasion outright, but they've been fence sitting, keeping relations with Ukraine open, and careful to emphasise their traditional commitment to the inviolability of sovereign borders and that their relationship with Russia is a partnership rather than an alliance. One can only guess what's going on inside the CCP, but I would imagine that they're both horrified at the scarcely concealed nuclear blackmail aspect of all of this, and desperate to avoid a trade war with all their most important foreign customers by siding openly with Putin.
The ordinary Russian people are about to find out what life is like in North Korea, methinks.
The Russian economy is going to be very badly damaged, possibly to the point of no return. There is not yet a sense of panic, but as the infrastructure of the financial system gradually switches off and the complete shunning of Russia grows, even beyond official sanctions, there is a risk that they will literally fall part. In Estonia the leading supermarkets have removed all Russian goods from the shelves. Physical trade, let alone finance or even oil and gas, has also stopped dead.
These sanctions are an earthquake and the familiar landscape of Russian brands, from Aeroflot to Sberbank is at high risk of being levelled. Of course we know that "Russians are used to suffering", but even still the cardiac arrest of trade, finance, sport, culture, communications and diplomacy as the result of the insane whim of a senile criminal must give some pause, even amongst his henchmen.
Something similar, albeit of lesser magnitude, polished off Gorbachev.
And he was fully compos mentis even if his judgement was less than perfect at times.
Really? I thought Gorbachev recognised the inevitable economic collapse of the Soviet Union and effectively polished it (the USSR) off.
.@TimmermansEU, 1st vice president of European Commission tells @BBCr4today “The UK is now following our lead [on oligarchs]. Even parties who have accepted funding from oligarchs [ie the Tories] need to change course…because that’s what the British public want.” https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1499293133984735232
The truth is like poetry, and most people hate poetry.
What a dreadful thought. How can one 'hate' poetry?
Brighter morning here, weather-wise. Glad last night's gathering went well.
Side thought; Grandson is reading history and opines that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is similar to the Italian invasion of Ethiopia in the thirties; done to project strength and restore the glories of the past. As with Mussolini Putin is interested in his image rather tan his country's. And of course, if the Ethiopians had had decent weapons they'd have done a lot better than they did.
It does nothing for me - generally (there are a few exceptions). It leaves me cold.
Your attitude is also another reason: "What a dreadful thought". Yes, how *dare* someone not like something you like? Basically, there's a stench of tosserifism around poetry.
Whilst pretty neutral on poetry myself. If you like it it probably means you are built in a certain way and if you don't you are just built in another way. I would be careful about calling people tossers though for promoting its virtue or even not understanding how you cannot like it given you seem to be larging it up on here asking if a friend's view on the war is so ridiculous you want to not be friend with them. People may think you are a bit of err tosser
'larging it up'
I didn't think I was doing that, and it isn't the impression I wanted to give.
There's been a lot of talk that this meeting of the Russian Federation Council is to declare martial law. It might be to declare some other things too, such as changes in leadership somewhere.
The best that should be hoped for is an immediate ceasefire, a quick deal involving no missiles stationed or NATO, but no preconditions on defence infrastructure beyond that, in return for total withdrawal, non-inteference and recgnotion of Zelenskiy, as Russia hinted at yesterday.
If that coud happen as quickly as possible, some of the most debilitating sanctions could be withdrawn. If and when it's no longer pointing a gun to the world's head, the total collapse of a territorially huge nation of 144 million is *not* in the world's interest.
Nah, Puck Futin. Those sanctions are in for at least six months, after he withdraws to the pre-2014 border, pays $10bn into a damage fund and $1m to the family of each dead Ukranian.
If he doesn’t withdraw, they ratchet up as fast as the West can send NLAWs to Lviv.
Will Putin (or is he capable of) accepting defeat?
I don't think it is 'if he doesn't withdraw' If Russia doesn't withdraw, by which time Putin will be replaced.
They sound a bit like Priti Patel. Doing the right thing, but only after all other options are exhausted.
Except Priti Patel and the UK still aren't doing the right thing - as we are still charging for the visas unless things changed since yesterday.
Again again, we have Tory sympathisers who listen to the rhetoric - the lies - being spouted by ministers about what they claim they are doing. Whilst ignoring the evidenced reality that they are not doing what they claim they are doing.
They are - as usual - lying to people they believe are stupid because they assume that stupid people don;t check the facts or even care. Its the same lies to the stupid that keeps them going with our BREXIT non-settlement. PBers are not stupid. And yet...
@RishiSunak Russian companies in the aviation or space industry will now be prevented from making use of UK-based insurance or reinsurance services directly or indirectly.
This measure will severely limit their access to the global insurance and reinsurance market.
There's been a lot of talk that this meeting of the Russian Federation Council is to declare martial law. It might be to declare some other things too, such as changes in the leadership structure somewhere, or to respond to internal power struggles.
The best that should be hoped for is an immediate ceasefire, a quick deal involving no missiles stationed or NATO, but no preconditions on defence infrastructure beyond that, in return for total withdrawal, non-inteference and recgnotion of Zelenskiy, as Russia hinted at yesterday.
If that coud happen as quickly as possible, some of the most debilitating sanctions could be withdrawn. If and when it's no longer pointing a gun to the world's head, the total collapse of a territorially huge nation of 144 million with nuclear weapons is *not* in the world's interest.
No, the total collapse of Putin's Russia absolutely is in the world's interest.
Fitch has downgraded Russia six steps in one move, from BBB to B.
That's a really big deal.
Most investment funds, pensions and insurance companies are usually required to only hold "investment grade" bonds.
And investment grade is a minimum of BBB-.
B is (counts it) four or five rungs below BBB-.
That's a lot of investment funds and insurance companies and pension funds that will, as of tomorrow, no longer be able to hold Russian government debt.
Is anyone in the Western world allowed to purchase Russian bonds anyway?
Beyond that, this:
Fascinating thread from Prof. Maxim Mironov on what sanctions are likely to mean for the Russian economy.
"My scientific conclusion... is that the Russian economy is fucked. Double fucked, because most Russians don't know what's coming."
This is worth a read. The professor quoted suggests:
+That Russia will soon suffer shortages of all sorts of basic goods, which are imported and which manufacturers are refusing to ship to the country (both because of risk of reputational damage, and because Russian importers would now struggle to pay for them)
+To the extent that Russia can turn to domestic production to fill the gaps, its factories are reliant on imported components and will soon grind to a halt anyway. This will also lead to a spike in unemployment and a further collapse in tax revenues, beyond those already suffered by the restrictions slapped on many of its exports
+More than half of Russia's foreign exchange reserves, which the Kremlin may have been banking on to cushion the effect of sanctions, have been seized - and much of the remainder is held as physical gold, which it will struggle to sell to foreign buyers
+Almost all Russian aircraft are imported and, since they will no longer be able to obtain spares, will soon be grounded. Civil aviation will grind to a halt, which is no small thing in a country spanning eleven time zones
+Russian agriculture relies heavily on imported seeds. These can eventually be replaced, but this is likely to lead to short-term deficiencies in a variety of crops
+Educated citizens crucial to the functioning of what's left of the Russian economy are starting to emigrate. The Government is likely to have to introduce exit visas to prevent them from escaping, or simply to close its borders altogether
None of this is going to change so long as Russia remains in Ukraine and, since it seems that Putin is completely committed to taking it, that means they won't change at all. It's not even clear to what extent he can rely on Xi to help him out in this instance. The Chinese may not have elected to condemn the invasion outright, but they've been fence sitting, keeping relations with Ukraine open, and careful to emphasise their traditional commitment to the inviolability of sovereign borders and that their relationship with Russia is a partnership rather than an alliance. One can only guess what's going on inside the CCP, but I would imagine that they're both horrified at the scarcely concealed nuclear blackmail aspect of all of this, and desperate to avoid a trade war with all their most important foreign customers by siding openly with Putin.
The ordinary Russian people are about to find out what life is like in North Korea, methinks.
The Russian economy is going to be very badly damaged, possibly to the point of no return. There is not yet a sense of panic, but as the infrastructure of the financial system gradually switches off and the complete shunning of Russia grows, even beyond official sanctions, there is a risk that they will literally fall part. In Estonia the leading supermarkets have removed all Russian goods from the shelves. Physical trade, let alone finance or even oil and gas, has also stopped dead.
These sanctions are an earthquake and the familiar landscape of Russian brands, from Aeroflot to Sberbank is at high risk of being levelled. Of course we know that "Russians are used to suffering", but even still the cardiac arrest of trade, finance, sport, culture, communications and diplomacy as the result of the insane whim of a senile criminal must give some pause, even amongst his henchmen.
Something similar, albeit of lesser magnitude, polished off Gorbachev.
And he was fully compos mentis even if his judgement was less than perfect at times.
Really? I thought Gorbachev recognised the inevitable economic collapse of the Soviet Union and effectively polished it (the USSR) off.
Gorbachev had the grace not to fight too hard against his own obsolescence.
I get the impression that Putin would consider accepting N Korea status if it meant he got to remain in power.
Comments
https://www.bbc.co.uk/mediacentre/2022/millions-of-russians-turn-to-bbc-news
The number of people viewing the BBC Russian website has gone from 3.1m to 10.7m in the last week.
https://www.tortoisemedia.com/
One of the great things about PB is the way someone says something, then another person corrects it, adding more detail. Hence the rest of us *learn*.
If that young lady is anywhere near representative of modern Ukrainian society, Putin is fucked. Or the planet is fucked. One or the other is about to be destroyed. The Ukrainians are not going to give up short of being annihilated by multiple nuclear strikes.
Businesswoman turned politician, very charismatic and articulate in English interviews for the past few days.
Why isn't Russia banning/blocking the BBC?
Starts at 3hr40 at https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0014xqr
Still. Bad news.
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: somewhere in sands of the desert
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Reel shadows of the indignant desert birds.
The darkness drops again; but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
A bit of a disappointment from John Gray. He shouldn't rush to get his take on things out. Events are moving too fast.
Now isn't the time for a further meditation on the decline of Western liberalism.
The change in my own outlook over the past week has been to drop the idea that there is some kind of tolerable post liberal order where we can be ruled by Trump and Putin.
Gray doesn't explicitly advocate this, but it is the conclusion I have taken from his writing.
A better answer is through the reinvention and resurgence of western liberal ideas.
Even though our system has been poisoned by extremes of both decadance and identity politics, it is obviously favourable to living in Putins Russia, where you can get thown in jail or executed at the whim of a dysfunctional state.
If you look at the Ukrainians, this is what they are rejecting, and the whole of Europe has woken up to what is going on.
The change is a revolution: Putin is isolated from all his former allies and sympathisers. The full power of cancel culture is foist upon them, in a way that they cannot comprehend or process.
The significance of all this is that Putin has provoked the West in to reinventing itself, as it has been doing for a thousand years. Decline and submission is not inevitable.
In fact, I'd rather listen to a compilation of Radiohead's Greatest Hits (*) whilst eating pineapple pizza than listen to five minutes of Poetry Please?
(*) On loop, as it is so short
Will be 200/$ at the exchanges now, 20,000 rubles for one Benjamin. The largest Russian banknote is 5,000 rubles.
Conscious that with Ukraine playing the finest hour role and NATO playing the US lend lease role, we are one pearl harbour away from being involved.
Are we using the time we have wisely?
Are we just assuming a Labour win? Might this not be tight?
Meanwhile I see that they have managed to turn Jurassic Park into real life by bringing back Dave Nellist.
https://news.sky.com/story/birmingham-erdington-by-election-voters-head-to-polls-after-sudden-death-of-labour-mp-jack-dromey-12555896
1) This song is one of the first Ukrainian songs I ever heard. My Dad used to sing this with Homin Ukrainian Male Voice Choir based in Manchester....
https://twitter.com/johndaszak/status/1499173324995321868
I feel sorry for Russians but their country is falling apart. Let's hope Putin doesn't try to take Ukraine down with them.
It's a brilliant, penetrating, powerful poem which cuts through where prose doesn't.
Thank you, El_Capitano.
Beyond that, this:
Fascinating thread from Prof. Maxim Mironov on what sanctions are likely to mean for the Russian economy.
"My scientific conclusion... is that the Russian economy is fucked. Double fucked, because most Russians don't know what's coming."
Image is my amateurish translation.
https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1499157917399977987
This is worth a read. The professor quoted suggests:
+That Russia will soon suffer shortages of all sorts of basic goods, which are imported and which manufacturers are refusing to ship to the country (both because of risk of reputational damage, and because Russian importers would now struggle to pay for them)
+To the extent that Russia can turn to domestic production to fill the gaps, its factories are reliant on imported components and will soon grind to a halt anyway. This will also lead to a spike in unemployment and a further collapse in tax revenues, beyond those already suffered by the restrictions slapped on many of its exports
+More than half of Russia's foreign exchange reserves, which the Kremlin may have been banking on to cushion the effect of sanctions, have been seized - and much of the remainder is held as physical gold, which it will struggle to sell to foreign buyers
+Almost all Russian aircraft are imported and, since they will no longer be able to obtain spares, will soon be grounded. Civil aviation will grind to a halt, which is no small thing in a country spanning eleven time zones
+Russian agriculture relies heavily on imported seeds. These can eventually be replaced, but this is likely to lead to short-term deficiencies in a variety of crops
+Educated citizens crucial to the functioning of what's left of the Russian economy are starting to emigrate. The Government is likely to have to introduce exit visas to prevent them from escaping, or simply to close its borders altogether
None of this is going to change so long as Russia remains in Ukraine and, since it seems that Putin is completely committed to taking it, that means they won't change at all. It's not even clear to what extent he can rely on Xi to help him out in this instance. The Chinese may not have elected to condemn the invasion outright, but they've been fence sitting, keeping relations with Ukraine open, and careful to emphasise their traditional commitment to the inviolability of sovereign borders and that their relationship with Russia is a partnership rather than an alliance. One can only guess what's going on inside the CCP, but I would imagine that they're both horrified at the scarcely concealed nuclear blackmail aspect of all of this, and desperate to avoid a trade war with all their most important foreign customers by siding openly with Putin.
The ordinary Russian people are about to find out what life is like in North Korea, methinks.
In the long term I'd be astonished if there were any increase in the defence budget. The UK can already claim it's meeting the 2% floor, and what money the Treasury has left is needed, crudely speaking, for pacifying and bribing its elderly core vote.
https://twitter.com/shpapuashvili/status/1499053439283875846
The information acquired from the various links on here gives you a broad-based idea of what is really going on - and why. Use it to make your case.
People in Ukraine are dying to have that free voice you are choosing to leave silent.
There are people in this world on all topics who are simply out with the fairies and I find my life a lot easier and happier if I don't engage. Occasionally even on here.
I'm sorry for you JJ because these are your friends.
https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1499257376087674880
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/russian-troops-in-disarray-crying-26363358
You're right though that poetry takes many forms. In fact, despite my previous comments I'm not one who believes the delineation between prose and poetry is always obvious. Take Thomas Hardy's glorious opening in Far From the Madding Crowd when he describes Gabriel Oak and the countryside and then our first encounter with Bathsheba. Or V.S. Naipul's A Bend in the River or even some of JRR Tolkien's prose in LOTR.
Putin strikes me as a 'I don't care if I do not win, so long as you also lose' kind of guy
I think it works if you read it very slowly and then someone explains it to you. But, I can't be arsed - unless it's Haiku.
It's interesting in another way: when this happens, he jumps in to say that although I am wrong, people should stop it because I am a good guy. In this way, he's a bit like Corbyn - he acts like a voice of reason compared to the lunatic followers who surround him.
I would say I don't want to destroy our friendship, but I'm unsure I really want to remain friends with him if that's how he sees the world. And I sat next to this guy for a couple of years, worked with him. Liked him. I always knew he was a bit on the fringe of hippydom, but had no idea of the (ahem) strength of his views ...
These sanctions are an earthquake and the familiar landscape of Russian brands, from Aeroflot to Sberbank is at high risk of being levelled. Of course we know that "Russians are used to suffering", but even still the cardiac arrest of trade, finance, sport, culture, communications and diplomacy as the result of the insane whim of a senile criminal must give some pause, even amongst his henchmen.
He didn’t expect the unprecedented level of sanctions applied, the almost unanimous international support for them, and that he didn’t have half as much of an army as he thought he did. Then the Ukranians started fighting back, with well trained troops, some of the world’s most advanced weaponry, and a population absolutely up for the fight.
I don't know why I generally dislike poetry. It just leaves me cold. Like jazz. Yet I can love other forms of art.
Excellent news
BBC News - Winter Paralympics 2022: Russia and Belarus athletes unable to compete at Games
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/disability-sport/60599739
And he was fully compos mentis even if his judgement was less than perfect at times.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If61baWF4GE
In short: for a military barrier against the west, for oil and gas, and for water.
It does seem rather suspicious that the areas of Ukraine and Moldova that Russia seems to have been interfering most with are the areas with gas and oil ...
Brighter morning here, weather-wise. Glad last night's gathering went well.
Side thought; Grandson is reading history and opines that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is similar to the Italian invasion of Ethiopia in the thirties; done to project strength and restore the glories of the past. As with Mussolini Putin is interested in his image rather tan his country's.
And of course, if the Ethiopians had had decent weapons they'd have done a lot better than they did.
https://twitter.com/StephenMcDonell/status/1499284180190244864
For a bit of amusement, my wife's Wordle attempt yesterday consisted of:
Tried cloth pants. Nasty.
Well it made us laugh.
The “ROC” was embarrassing enough for Futin, but seeing no athletes there at all will spare him from having to watch a drugged-up child fall over on the ice really annoy him.
They can keep the land and people, but not the resources.
Your attitude is also another reason: "What a dreadful thought". Yes, how *dare* someone not like something you like? Basically, there's a stench of tosserifism around poetry.
#BREAKING Germany to deliver 2,700 further anti-air missiles to Ukraine: govt source
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1499282935509585920
Of no import, but equalling my personal best somehow makes the world seem brighter.
Funny thing humans.
They’re throwing all their reserves at it, but it still can’t recover. Was 75/$ a fortnight ago.
Edit: 111 now, five minutes later!
He has the space for security.
Much harder to kill him from a distance. If you approach uninvited you are stopped, possibly in a permenant way.
If it is covid there would be no exceptions.
Moody's downgraded the rating on Russian long-term debt from Baa3 to B3 while Fitch lowered its rating from BBB to B
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1499289022010920965
Can’t imagine how the Russian officers might treat their failures and deserters.
The best that should be hoped for is an immediate ceasefire, a quick deal involving no missiles stationed or NATO, but no preconditions on defence infrastructure beyond that, in return for total withdrawal, non-inteference and recgnotion of Zelenskiy, as Russia hinted at yesterday.
If that coud happen as quickly as possible, some of the most debilitating sanctions could be withdrawn. If and when it's no longer pointing a gun to the world's head, the total collapse of a territorially huge nation of 144 million with nuclear weapons is *not* in the world's interest.
This is what its starting to feel like. Putin sits in the Kremlin surrounded by supplicants whom he screams at. He plots a glorious return to the greater rodina, and tells his men to prepare for the operation. Yes, they reply.
Meanwhile the Russian army is a shell of its former strength, can't even maintain its vehicles in peacetime, can't get enough troops to do the job so pressgangs teachers and college staff.
Putin expects a swift and conclusive drive into the land of the fascists to remove the imperialist puppets and replace the government with true patriots. Instead we have this bogged-down fiasco.
A point of departure is imminent. Russia may not have troops and trucks but it still has bigger offensive weapons of the air. The Ukranians aren't really our cousins any more, they are westerners and need to be punished. I'm already a pariah and if this goes on much longer the economy is at risk. So why not just bomb Ukraine into submission? The civilians are all guilty of fascist insurrection anyway and we need to stop this resistance to the rodina.
I fear a big escalation against civilians. Which would inevitably lead to huge pressure on NATO to intervene. These conscripts haven't had much heart to fight their cousins and even replacing them with proper soldiers has an issue. But the Bravery of being out of range is strong- much easier to conduct war behind a screen with a joystick to target bombs and missiles.
If he doesn’t withdraw, they ratchet up as fast as the West can send NLAWs to Lviv.
"It is a big offer."
Security Minister Damian Hinds says "hundreds of thousands" of people fleeing Ukraine will be eligible for the UK's extended family and community sponsorship programmes.
Latest: http://trib.al/QTC8as2
📺 Sky 501, Virgin 602, Freeview 233 and YouTube https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1499289303809204225/video/1
Is it fuck.
Meanwhile...
Denmark is now rushing a law through parliament, allowing Ukrainian refugees access as if they were EU citizens. That means full access to stay, work, health.
https://twitter.com/larsen_hb/status/1499055280184770565
Russia is a repeated aggressor. Whilst we should not humiliate them, neither can they (or other countries) think this sort of behaviour can be advantageous.
As I said below: surrendering the mineral resources to help rebuild Ukraine might be a place to start. And it'll indicate where Russia's real interests lie.
Unless Putin abruptly gets removed and a pro-western government immediately takes office there, we need to beef ourselves up. This PM responded to that need by mocking the Tory chair of the Defence Select Committee (and former Lieutenant Colonel in the army) of wanting cold war style tank battles.
Its funny how the last few remaining Tory sympathisers have used this crisis as "lets not bash Boris" excuses even though the man is a direct menace to our security by leaving us unprepared for the future.
“The UK is now following our lead [on oligarchs].
Even parties who have accepted funding from oligarchs [ie the Tories] need to change course…because that’s what the British public want.”
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1499293133984735232
I didn't think I was doing that, and it isn't the impression I wanted to give.
I don't think it is 'if he doesn't withdraw'
If Russia doesn't withdraw, by which time Putin will be replaced.
They are - as usual - lying to people they believe are stupid because they assume that stupid people don;t check the facts or even care. Its the same lies to the stupid that keeps them going with our BREXIT non-settlement. PBers are not stupid. And yet...
Russian companies in the aviation or space industry will now be prevented from making use of UK-based insurance or reinsurance services directly or indirectly.
This measure will severely limit their access to the global insurance and reinsurance market.
https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1499294122242457600
Pick up the pieces afterwards.
I get the impression that Putin would consider accepting N Korea status if it meant he got to remain in power.