politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Rupert Murdoch hints that tonight’s YouGov is has NO and YE

If Cameron does resign, the Tories will be electing someone to lead them through to 2020, not just a 6 month stop-gap. Even if they lose in 2015, the new leader wouldn't be expected to resign, and could end up as PM 12 months later anyway.

So who should they elect? May and Hammond are the obvious candidates, but are too much same old, same old. They need someone with good Kipper-lite credentials to pull back lost voters, but also with broader appeal - perhaps a woman and/or a non-white face. There is one outstanding candidate who ticks all of those boxes - none other than Priti Patel.

For holders of Scottish bank accounts:

“On a recent journey to India, I needed to get rupees at Mumbai airport,” recounts a friend from Edinburgh.

“When I presented the pound banknotes printed by RBS, the ‘babu’ in the exchange booth added a 0.90 multiplier, explaining that Scottish pounds are worth 10 per cent less.” He added: “The portrait of Lord Ilay is not as convincing as that of Queen Elizabeth.”

http://www.ftadviser.com/2014/09/03/investments/uk/how-scottish-independence-could-affect-your-cash-sklfCpHLmMdozK2ZaAC44O/article-0.html

I doubt pound will fall far enough to push up interest rates. I'd be more worried about UK-based equities and UK bonds.

If there is a run on Scottish banks post the Yes, to what extent will the UK government intervene? Strictly speaking it should, but no-one can force it to.

Also, Alexander and Carmichael tag team to quit cabinet by end of September. Fill your boots.

I guess you don't want a Strictly Come Dancing betting thread this evening?

Yes down to 3.85 from 4.6 about 45 mins ago

GIN1138 said:

SeanT said:

Miliband is, inter alia, completely f*cked.

Labour will go into civil war, even more than the Tories. This is epochal. it happened under his watch and, like Cameron, he will get the blame - snooty north London intellectual who didn't see the risk until it was too late.

UKIP to win in 2015?

Ed Miliband has actually been in Scotland this week, looking like a fish out of water...

That will be nothing to how beached he will look standing in Downing Street...telling us that Putin has cut off the gas into Europe...

surbiton said:

Has anyone in the indy debate raised the question of interest rates ? Regardless of currency union or not, interest rates in the two countries will diverge if Scotland votes YES. In the beginning, I would assume Scottish rates will be higher.

Depends what you mean by interest rates.

The BoE slate rates in a CU would, by definition, be the same. Government borrowing rates would likely be different; you're right to assume that iScot rates would likely start higher - smaller economy, less diversified (and therefore more at risk from exogenous shocks) and with an, as yet, unproven government.

Mr. T: "Scots didn't even want it."

Well, they voted a party whose raison d'etre is separation a majority in an electoral system designed to avoid majorities, and are now voting in a referendum. That would seem a fair indication of Scottish opinion.

Incidentally, blaming Cameron if Yes wins is as silly as blaming Constantine Dragases for the fall of Byzantium.

DavidL said:

Out canvassing again this afternoon. One of several teams out in Dundee for BT today. Quite reasonable. Private housing and No just edged it.

One thing the staff noticed is that there was a significant pick up in volunteers after the last close poll. No doubt there will be another pick up if tomorrow is close.

No one in Scotland believes for a minute now that this could not happen and all of the early smugness and overconfidence (which I think I can legitimately claim never to have shared) has gone. BT knows they are in a fight to the finish and they will.

I feel deeply sad for you and so many others. You could not have done more. I hope it's not as bad as I fear. We will feel diminished in England, a bit angry, there may even be some financial kickback; but it's nothing on what's going to happen in Scotland. And you lose your birthright. Just horrible.

surbiton said:

MarkHopkins said:

Cameron's master plan to ensure future Conservative election victories moves into its final phase.

Don't under estimate Sean's point about Cameron resignation. Let me explain.

If YES had been in the lead for 6 months, then nothing would have happened. However, half of the English voters, who actually know about the ref and the other half who are blissfully ignorant won't like it if a large part of the weather map is gone !

I should think the "weather map" will stay as it is. We still see the Ireland and even Northern France on the map for instance. I don't think the weather map is supposed to reflect geography so much as the areas where "the weather" is coming from, be it north, south, east or west.

However, Cameron will resign. I've said this all the way along.

One interesting idea to ponder is what happens, if in his resignation speech, he call's on "others" to consider their positions as well.

Would Ed also do the honorable thing?

Scottish footballers come out for no
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/09/06/scottish-independence-footballers_n_5776564.html?icid=maing-grid7|uk|dl1|sec3_lnk5&pLid=291213

GIN1138 said:

surbiton said:

MarkHopkins said:

Cameron's master plan to ensure future Conservative election victories moves into its final phase.

Don't under estimate Sean's point about Cameron resignation. Let me explain.

If YES had been in the lead for 6 months, then nothing would have happened. However, half of the English voters, who actually know about the ref and the other half who are blissfully ignorant won't like it if a large part of the weather map is gone !

I should think the "weather map" will stay as it is. We still see the Ireland and even Northern France on the map for instance. I don't think the weather map is supposed to reflect geography so much as the areas where "the weather" is coming from, be it north, south, east or west.

However, Cameron will resign. I've said this all the way along.

One interesting idea to ponder is what happens, if in his resignation speech, he call's on "others" to consider their positions as well.

Would Ed also do the honorable thing?

Ed stabbed his own brother in the back (and front) to win the Labour leadership.

He is a man without honour, so no he won't resign.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I guess you don't want a Strictly Come Dancing betting thread this evening?

Bet you can't wait to see Pixie Lott in sequins?

No must now ram down Murdoch's Yes endorsement in every broadcast, newspaper, ad and leaflet, the average Scot hates the man

Mr. L, best of luck. I do hope No wins.

CarlottaVance said:

For holders of Scottish bank accounts:

“On a recent journey to India, I needed to get rupees at Mumbai airport,” recounts a friend from Edinburgh.

“When I presented the pound banknotes printed by RBS, the ‘babu’ in the exchange booth added a 0.90 multiplier, explaining that Scottish pounds are worth 10 per cent less.” He added: “The portrait of Lord Ilay is not as convincing as that of Queen Elizabeth.”

http://www.ftadviser.com/2014/09/03/investments/uk/how-scottish-independence-could-affect-your-cash-sklfCpHLmMdozK2ZaAC44O/article-0.html

I'd stay clear of her for financial advice. I thought everyone knew it was best to change into English notes when travelling outside Scotland.

HYUFD said:

Scottish footballers come out for no
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/09/06/scottish-independence-footballers_n_5776564.html?icid=maing-grid7|uk|dl1|sec3_lnk5&pLid=291213

Surprise surprise , old duffers and losers, most of whom don't have a vote as they live outside Scotland.

HYUFD said:

Also interesting too see most of these Yes backers seeing themselves as social democrats, find that Rupert Murdoch, a man they loathe, is one of their biggest backers, he knows that Salmond, with his corporation tax cuts plans, and opposition to 50% top tax rate is no social democrat

Don't forget Mr Souter. There's nothing social democratic or progressive about creating new international frontiers.

If Scotland votes No, as I'm guest editing the site a few days later, I'm going to do a piece headlined

"No that the Scots has said to the UK that We're Never Gonna Give You Up, what does this mean for the UK?"

CarlottaVance said:

MarkHopkins said:

Perhaps TSE can suggest a playlist for the 18th, starting with "It's the End of the World as We Know It".

Followed shortly thereafter by "Who's Sorry Now?"

I Predict a Riot, by Kaiser Chiefs

HYUFD said:

Scottish footballers come out for no
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/09/06/scottish-independence-footballers_n_5776564.html?icid=maing-grid7|uk|dl1|sec3_lnk5&pLid=291213

Ex footballers and a broadcaster surely? And in the past they must remain.

There was also an interesting letter in the Times arguing that England and Wales should have a referendum on a currency union with Scotland and Wales

TheScreamingEagles said:

GIN1138 said:

surbiton said:

MarkHopkins said:

Cameron's master plan to ensure future Conservative election victories moves into its final phase.

Don't under estimate Sean's point about Cameron resignation. Let me explain.

If YES had been in the lead for 6 months, then nothing would have happened. However, half of the English voters, who actually know about the ref and the other half who are blissfully ignorant won't like it if a large part of the weather map is gone !

I should think the "weather map" will stay as it is. We still see the Ireland and even Northern France on the map for instance. I don't think the weather map is supposed to reflect geography so much as the areas where "the weather" is coming from, be it north, south, east or west.

However, Cameron will resign. I've said this all the way along.

One interesting idea to ponder is what happens, if in his resignation speech, he call's on "others" to consider their positions as well.

Would Ed also do the honorable thing?

Ed stabbed his own brother in the back (and front) to win the Labour leadership.

He is a man without honour, so no he won't resign.

Ed wasn't the only MP to challenge David for the leadership. Not sure why the fact that they're related meant Ed was meant to put his own ambitions behind his brother's. Didn't we leave the first son being the favourite son in the 20th century? Or are you referring to something else?

kle4 said:

I know the SNP and Yes are aiming for something the rest of the establishment of the UK are not in favour of, but I do struggle to see them as not someone being part of the political establishment. A party of national government could hardly claim to be so, so why others would do it for them I don't know. They just hope for a different establishment is all.

I think it comes down to the fact that the leading SNPers are, frankly, better at politics than most of Westminster.

Obviously everyone knows Salmond's strengths (and weaknesses), but I've always thought Nicola Sturgeon was underestimated too. She might not be winning any charisma awards anytime soon, but when I've seen her on TV she's always been pretty good at giving straight answers to the questions and speaking in a way which anyone could understand, rather than the God-awful jargon/gobbledygook that most politicians (from all the 3 big parties) talk in.

Murdoch talks about libertarians and far left, what about the rise of the nationalist right eg Marine Le Pen

whiff of panic on here, penny is beginning to drop.

MarkHopkins said:

SeanT said:

John_M said:

SeanT said:

HurstLlama said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

We should have paid more attention yesterday when Roger said No was going to win.

lol. We need that dark humour in dark times.

It is kind of fitting that this summor of horrors will end with the dissolution of my country. Ah well. At least I'm rich.

I am not rich and the summer will not end with the dissolution of my country, regardless of which way the Scots vote.

Honestly , Mr. T, have you ever thought how you would have been in WWII?

Wait until you see the interest rate hikes, the tumbling of the pound, the spectre of recession, the years of chaos and argument. It's going to be messy, boring, expensive and relentless for the rest of the decade.

My biggest pity is reserved for passionate Scottish unionists - and there are lots of them. Half their identity will be ripped away.

And this was all avoidable.

Oh, and, PILE IN ON THE CAMERON RESIGNATION MARKET

I'm a saver. Did someone say 'interest rate hikes'. God bless you, plucky independentistas. Long may your saltires unfurl.

Are you a property owner? There's a good chance this will hammer house prices too.

I hear that all the fish are going to emigrate and large dragons will swoop down and roast sheep where they stand on the hills.

I own my house, lock stock and barrel.My daughter would like to buy a house, but they're unaffordable for her.

I see Scottish independence as being like a recession; I struggled horribly in '80/'81 but didn't even notice the '91 meltdown. Some will suffer, some will benefit, many will notice little change.

I do agree that it's a massive constitutional shock; I expect a few political careers will be cut short; what a terrible, terrible shame.

HurstLlama said:

SouthamObserver said:

HurstLlama said:

SouthamObserver said:

HurstLlama said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

We should have paid more attention yesterday when Roger said No was going to win.

lol. We need that dark humour in dark times.

It is kind of fitting that this summor of horrors will end with the dissolution of my country. Ah well. At least I'm rich.

I am not rich and the summer will not end with the dissolution of my country, regardless of which way the Scots vote.

Honestly , Mr. T, have you ever thought how you would have been in WWII?

Whether you like it or not, your country is about to end. 300 plus years of history over. It is one of the most extraordinary moments in European history. And we have Dave, Ed and Eck sorting it out. My God.

My country isn't about to end, Mr.Observer, and history cannot be over because by definition it is already passed.

Were there Englishmen earning their living in Sussex (and Warwickshire) before the Act of Union? Will there be Englishmen earning their living in Sussex (and Warwickshire) if the Scots vote to dissolve that union? Of course there will be and 99.9% of the population will not notice the difference.

I hope you are right. I fear you are wrong. At a minimum the Yes vote will herald significant constitutional change in rUK. That may actually be about the only good thing to come out of this whole sorry episode.

If there is a yes vote, or even if there isn't, there has to be constitutional change. The present system where by an effective dictator can be elected by the minority of the votes from a fraction of the electorate is crazy and people will not put up with it much longer.

As I have said on here before, FPTP has destroyed the Union.

SO Well even the Scots backed FPTP in the AV referendum

MalcolmG Scotland had a Tory majority in the 1950s and even in 2010 the Tories won over 400,000 votes, Scotland has always loathed Murdoch!

HurstLlama said:

SouthamObserver said:

HurstLlama said:

SouthamObserver said:

HurstLlama said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

We should have paid more attention yesterday when Roger said No was going to win.

lol. We need that dark humour in dark times.

It is kind of fitting that this summor of horrors will end with the dissolution of my country. Ah well. At least I'm rich.

I am not rich and the summer will not end with the dissolution of my country, regardless of which way the Scots vote.

Honestly , Mr. T, have you ever thought how you would have been in WWII?

Whether you like it or not, your country is about to end. 300 plus years of history over. It is one of the most extraordinary moments in European history. And we have Dave, Ed and Eck sorting it out. My God.

My country isn't about to end, Mr.Observer, and history cannot be over because by definition it is already passed.

Were there Englishmen earning their living in Sussex (and Warwickshire) before the Act of Union? Will there be Englishmen earning their living in Sussex (and Warwickshire) if the Scots vote to dissolve that union? Of course there will be and 99.9% of the population will not notice the difference.

I hope you are right. I fear you are wrong. At a minimum the Yes vote will herald significant constitutional change in rUK. That may actually be about the only good thing to come out of this whole sorry episode.

If there is a yes vote, or even if there isn't, there has to be constitutional change. The present system where by an effective dictator can be elected by the minority of the votes from a fraction of the electorate is crazy and people will not put up with it much longer.

LOL , now we have the unionists calling for a police state, how dare those uppity Scots vote democratically for a government they do not like.
That has to rank as the most senile post I have read on here, only a poltroon and a blackguard could write such tripe. Mental unionist Little Englander vows that Scotland will be punished.

I kid you not.

Just seen a Sky News advert for their Independence referendum results show and they've got Alex Salmond signing over and over

"I want to break free"

HYUFD said:

Matthew Parris 'Tories should turn their backs on Clacton'
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4198515.ece

I've not read Parris since the Times went behind a paywall, but I used to think he was smart.

Sounds like he's lost the plot.

HurstLlama said:

SouthamObserver said:

HurstLlama said:

SouthamObserver said:

HurstLlama said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

We should have paid more attention yesterday when Roger said No was going to win.

lol. We need that dark humour in dark times.

It is kind of fitting that this summor of horrors will end with the dissolution of my country. Ah well. At least I'm rich.

I am not rich and the summer will not end with the dissolution of my country, regardless of which way the Scots vote.

Honestly , Mr. T, have you ever thought how you would have been in WWII?

Whether you like it or not, your country is about to end. 300 plus years of history over. It is one of the most extraordinary moments in European history. And we have Dave, Ed and Eck sorting it out. My God.

My country isn't about to end, Mr.Observer, and history cannot be over because by definition it is already passed.

Were there Englishmen earning their living in Sussex (and Warwickshire) before the Act of Union? Will there be Englishmen earning their living in Sussex (and Warwickshire) if the Scots vote to dissolve that union? Of course there will be and 99.9% of the population will not notice the difference.

I hope you are right. I fear you are wrong. At a minimum the Yes vote will herald significant constitutional change in rUK. That may actually be about the only good thing to come out of this whole sorry episode.

If there is a yes vote, or even if there isn't, there has to be constitutional change. The present system where by an effective dictator can be elected by the minority of the votes from a fraction of the electorate is crazy and people will not put up with it much longer.

The answer is to split the executive and legislature.

The Executive elected by single popular vote (i.e. the PM). The legislature by multi-member open list constituencies.

To all those weak kneed jessie Kippers, who are doing their best to stop a referendum in 2017, because you're scared that will people vote to remain in the EU, take note of this referendum.

Have faith in the people

SeanT said:

GIN1138 said:

Charles said:

SouthamObserver said:

HurstLlama said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

We should have paid more attention yesterday when Roger said No was going to win.

lol. We need that dark humour in dark times.

It is kind of fitting that this summor of horrors will end with the dissolution of my country. Ah well. At least I'm rich.

I am not rich and the summer will not end with the dissolution of my country, regardless of which way the Scots vote.

Honestly , Mr. T, have you ever thought how you would have been in WWII?

Whether you like it or not, your country is about to end. 300 plus years of history over. It is one of the most extraordinary moments in European history. And we have Dave, Ed and Eck sorting it out. My God.

It took just one generation for the professional politicians to f*** it all.

Bring back the experienced individuals, who see the role of MP as public service, following a previous career.

Say what you like about the Westminster bunch, but you you can't criticize Salmond for this.

He has his agenda and if he pulls off separation he'll have played a blinder.

The best result for him and the SNP personally would be a very narrow NO vote as it would keep the SNP going for another 10 years or more. YES means the SNP will be finished in short order.

But fair do's, he'll be one of the few politicians to ever take on the British establishment and not just beat it, but destroy it.

What nonsense. Salmond doesn't want NO. He wants YES and his name in the history books forever. There will be statues of him across Scotland. Vandalised statues, but statues nonetheless.

Agree. That's why I say he'll have played a blinder and you can't fault him for being one of the greatest "conviction" politicians in political history.

malcolmg said:

HurstLlama said:

SouthamObserver said:

HurstLlama said:

SouthamObserver said:

HurstLlama said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

We should have paid more attention yesterday when Roger said No was going to win.

lol. We need that dark humour in dark times.

It is kind of fitting that this summor of horrors will end with the dissolution of my country. Ah well. At least I'm rich.

I am not rich and the summer will not end with the dissolution of my country, regardless of which way the Scots vote.

Honestly , Mr. T, have you ever thought how you would have been in WWII?

Whether you like it or not, your country is about to end. 300 plus years of history over. It is one of the most extraordinary moments in European history. And we have Dave, Ed and Eck sorting it out. My God.

My country isn't about to end, Mr.Observer, and history cannot be over because by definition it is already passed.

Were there Englishmen earning their living in Sussex (and Warwickshire) before the Act of Union? Will there be Englishmen earning their living in Sussex (and Warwickshire) if the Scots vote to dissolve that union? Of course there will be and 99.9% of the population will not notice the difference.

I hope you are right. I fear you are wrong. At a minimum the Yes vote will herald significant constitutional change in rUK. That may actually be about the only good thing to come out of this whole sorry episode.

If there is a yes vote, or even if there isn't, there has to be constitutional change. The present system where by an effective dictator can be elected by the minority of the votes from a fraction of the electorate is crazy and people will not put up with it much longer.

LOL , now we have the unionists calling for a police state, how dare those uppity Scots vote democratically for a government they do not like.
That has to rank as the most senile post I have read on here, only a poltroon and a blackguard could write such tripe. Mental unionist Little Englander vows that Scotland will be punished.

Think you've completely missed the point of Mr Llama's post.

He was criticising FPTP (and agreeing with the theory of elective dictatorship), nothing to do with Scotland.

"SouthamObserver said:

» show previous quotes
Some of us knew a long time ago. It's sad to be proved right, but the writing's been on the wall for months. It's going to be an unpleasant few years though.

(Malcolmg)

SO , you did indeed see it first and stuck with it even as the frothers ridiculed you. "

I've seen some arrogant posting in my time but that takes the biscuit! (And with JackW posting that's saying something!!)

When will we get the results of the referendum?

It gets worse...............
https://www.facebook.com/robert.middlemass.1/posts/258143147728948

SO No, because Rajoy knows it will be Catalonia and the Basque country next, Renzi knows Venice will follow, and Hollande knows Corsica will get ideas, the Belgians will be worried about Flanders, they will be worried and furious, not laughing!

Charles said:

malcolmg said:

HurstLlama said:

SouthamObserver said:

HurstLlama said:

SouthamObserver said:

HurstLlama said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

We should have paid more attention yesterday when Roger said No was going to win.

lol. We need that dark humour in dark times.

It is kind of fitting that this summor of horrors will end with the dissolution of my country. Ah well. At least I'm rich.

I am not rich and the summer will not end with the dissolution of my country, regardless of which way the Scots vote.

Honestly , Mr. T, have you ever thought how you would have been in WWII?

Whether you like it or not, your country is about to end. 300 plus years of history over. It is one of the most extraordinary moments in European history. And we have Dave, Ed and Eck sorting it out. My God.

My country isn't about to end, Mr.Observer, and history cannot be over because by definition it is already passed.

Were there Englishmen earning their living in Sussex (and Warwickshire) before the Act of Union? Will there be Englishmen earning their living in Sussex (and Warwickshire) if the Scots vote to dissolve that union? Of course there will be and 99.9% of the population will not notice the difference.

I hope you are right. I fear you are wrong. At a minimum the Yes vote will herald significant constitutional change in rUK. That may actually be about the only good thing to come out of this whole sorry episode.

If there is a yes vote, or even if there isn't, there has to be constitutional change. The present system where by an effective dictator can be elected by the minority of the votes from a fraction of the electorate is crazy and people will not put up with it much longer.

LOL , now we have the unionists calling for a police state, how dare those uppity Scots vote democratically for a government they do not like.
That has to rank as the most senile post I have read on here, only a poltroon and a blackguard could write such tripe. Mental unionist Little Englander vows that Scotland will be punished.

Think you've completely missed the point of Mr Llama's post.

He was criticising FPTP (and agreeing with the theory of elective dictatorship), nothing to do with Scotland.

Hmmmmm, it does not read that way , I am not convinced he is saying Cameron is a dictator. You are being generous to a fault.

SouthamObserver said:

When Cameron goes to his first EU meeting after the Yes, will the other leaders just point at him and laugh?

Sure there will be some hilarity.

SouthamObserver said:

malcolmg said:

SouthamObserver said:

malcolmg said:

whiff of panic on here, penny is beginning to drop.

Some of us knew a long time ago. It's sad to be proved right, but the writing's been on the wall for months. It's going to be an unpleasant few years though.

SO , you did indeed see it first and stuck with it even as the frothers ridiculed you.

I really wanted to be wrong and secure my place in the all-time crap prediction pantheon, but I could never construct a plausible scenario for No winning. The whole UK is sick of the Westminster elite, the Scots have a chance to actually demonstrate their contempt. They'll soon realise their new political elite is just as duplicitous, but that's still in the future. Westminster is now.

I still say if either side wins by less than 10% they should have a referendum every five years.. Aggro if its close either way

Roger said:

"SouthamObserver said:

» show previous quotes
Some of us knew a long time ago. It's sad to be proved right, but the writing's been on the wall for months. It's going to be an unpleasant few years though.

(Malcolmg)

SO , you did indeed see it first and stuck with it even as the frothers ridiculed you. "

I've seen some arrogant posting in my time but that takes the biscuit! (And with JackW posting that's saying something!!)

Nothing arrogant in saying I told you so!!

I wonder if JackW will return to explain how he called it so wrong. It does throw his ARSE up into the air.

malcolmg said:

SouthamObserver said:

When Cameron goes to his first EU meeting after the Yes, will the other leaders just point at him and laugh?

Sure there will be some hilarity.

Will Eck be looking through the keyhole?

MonikerDiCanio said:

SouthamObserver said:

When Cameron goes to his first EU meeting after the Yes, will the other leaders just point at him and laugh?

When your Scottish referendum prediction proves as accurate as your President Romney forecast , I'll enjoy several minutes of mirth.

It's a faint hope now. I really wanted that double.

CarlottaVance said:

malcolmg said:

SouthamObserver said:

When Cameron goes to his first EU meeting after the Yes, will the other leaders just point at him and laugh?

Sure there will be some hilarity.

Will Eck be looking through the keyhole?

He will be with them laughing