The further invasion of Ukraine feels like a Sudetenland 1938 moment.
I think we will be fine. this is more a "in a fit of pique he decided to napalm Cheltenham" moment. I would be betting on Putin out of office by y/e if I were not so heavily invested in BJ being out of office, errm, worryingly soon
This Ukraine Crisis could, likely will, quickly subside into nothing from here now, with ceasefire, Ukraine surrender, talks in Moscow between the governments.
The reckoning on Boris is not cancelled till summer, it’s coming as soon as this thing dies down as the lazy and poor way he has handled the crisis only adds to the reasons to replace him.
I agree completely.
Russia will have overrun Ukraine by the end of the weekend and I'm afraid it will subside as news until the next of Putin's atrocities threatens to wake us up.
We will back to domestic politics very soon.
We may see this is appalling (it is) but MoonRabbit is right.
Ah, two cheeks of the same Putinist arse.
You're a really unpleasant extreme right winger.
I posted a sensible comment and you resorted to your usual pompous bellicosity.
(p.s. I loathe Putin)
It's just that if I was a paid to post stuff to benefit Russia in this current environment, on a board with a generally (*) intelligent readership and posters, I would post the stuff you are. "Oh of course I hate Putin. But look, it'll all blow over and Boris is really at fault. He needs replacing."
Or similar. As you did in your post.
(*) excepting myself
I think the Russians have found it more successful to fund fringe Western political ideas and leaders that cause division and chaos.
Oh, they can do both. In fact, it's well known they have been.
And to be clear: PB may be a fringe website, but it'd be a good target for misinfo because of the readership and the (generally) reasonable quality of comments.
I would have thought it a bad site for misinfo as clearly incorrect things are regularly challenged quickly on here, and it is not easy to share a pb quote with a mass audience anyway (apart from the journalists who enjoy lifting articles from here, changing a few words and claiming them as their own work).
Conversely it is a good site to share info that is based in reality, but not yet widely understood or considered.
Something that really worries me is in 10 days or so if Russia has taken heavy losses and made little to no advance that Putin will deploy nuclear weapons. He seems mad enough to do it.
He'd use chemical weapons instead, and blame the Ukranians, allowing him to escalate. It worked for Assad in Syria via the usual idiots.
Something that really worries me is in 10 days or so if Russia has taken heavy losses and made little to no advance that Putin will deploy nuclear weapons. He seems mad enough to do it.
yes , sort of like the USA did with Japan . All those wanting Ukraine to get engaged with a long and bloody fight risk escalation with a nuclear power
he would only use tactical nukes carefully targeted
Someone said a story many moons ago that during the Cold War, the west would send up fighters to intercept their bombers, and it became common for messages to be written on sheets and held up to the cockpit. It became a bit of a game between bomber crew and interceptors.
Being paranoid idiots, the Russians did not like this, so they sent KGB officers up to ensure no secrets were being given away.
The Bear bomber is basically a cigar tube with a gunner at the rear and the cockpit at the front. Between the two is a very narrow crawlspace. So our interceptors would go to the front of the plane, then to the rear, and the KGB officer would have to crawl between the two. The fighters would then go to the front, and the officer would have to crawl all the way to the front. Repeat until the KGB officer is thoroughly pi**ed off.
The story says that once Vladamir Putin was one of the officers, and he has had a healthy dislike of the west ever since...
No idea if it's true, or even if the Bear has a crawlspace. and it sounds a bit Tom Clancy to me, but it'd be fun if true.
Seems unlikely. A TU95 Hull can carry 20 passengers in Tu-116 form, which suggests a bit more than a crawl way behind the cockpit.
Except the bomb load is in the way in the bomber version...
And it is the last in the line of a series of stretches and re-designs of... a B-29.....
I love the 'unknown hole' story of the TU-4 bomber, possibly apocryphal. The Russians got several B-29 bombers that diverted after damage fighting Japan. Stalin ordered their own, Russian version. It led to a hole in the wing that did not need to be there....
"“A little hole was found on the left wing of the [first] aircraft. No aerodynamics or durability expert had the slightest idead what the hell it was there for. There was no tube or wire attached to it, and there was no equivalent to it on the right wing. The opinion of a commission of experts was that the hole had been bored by a factory drill at the same time as the other holes for the rivets. So what to do? Most probably, the hole had been drilled by mistake, and later no one had bothered to fill it in as it was much too small. The chief designer was aked his opinion. ‘Do the Amercans have it?’ ‘Yes.’ ‘So why the hell are you asking me? Weren’t we ordered to make them identical! Alike as two peas?’ So, for that reason, a very small hole indeed, made with the thinnest possible drill, appeared on the left wing of all Tu-4 strategic bombers…’”
I also believe the Russians had great trouble making the glass and ?rubber? for their copies.
Tupolev did a bunch of bullshit like that to placate Beria who demanded an exact copy.
In fact the design was reworked to use metric, the engines were completely different and the defensive armament were Russian cannon instead of 0.5s and there were many, many other changes.
Apparently they could use some American spares - B-29 tires were bought via surplus yards in the US!
Something that really worries me is in 10 days or so if Russia has taken heavy losses and made little to no advance that Putin will deploy nuclear weapons. He seems mad enough to do it.
yes , sort of like the USA did with Japan . All those wanting Ukraine to get engaged with a long and bloody fight risk escalation with a nuclear power
he would only use tactical nukes carefully targeted
yes not sure that is reassuring and the word "only" is the right word
Breaking: the ultimate sanction has been unleashed!
Russia has been kicked out of the Eurovision Song Contest
Could we find a way to hack Russia Today and broadcast the UK Eurovision entries from this century on a permanent loop? We would get surrender by the end of the weekend.
Obviously the Ukrainian invasion wouldn't have happened with a strongman in the White House. A tyrant like Putin against Joe Biden well what a fuck up. For many on then Left that opposed Trump this is life coming at you fast.
You’re delusional.
Appears to be reaching critical mass delusion on here.
Obviously the Ukrainian invasion wouldn't have happened with a strongman in the White House. A tyrant like Putin against Joe Biden well what a fuck up. For many on then Left that opposed Trump this is life coming at you fast.
I don't believe that is accurate at all. The only thing I would concede is that Putin might have thought that Trump was so bat shit crazy he would just launch an all out war. But in fact Trump had made clear all the way through he didn't give a shit about Europe, NATO or anything else overseas unless it impinged on his chances of remaining in office.
Indeed, it's important to note that Russia did invade Ukraine during Trump's time in the White House. Now, it was unofficial and undeclared, but the fact is that there was an invasion and there were Russian troops on the ground.
BREAKING: In a video conference call last night Ukraine President Zelensky told EU leaders: "This might be the last time you see me alive", two sources briefed on the call told me
Note also that the mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, has picked up a gun and will fight to defend his capital, as have many of the Ukraine cabinet. They truly value their democracy.
It's more visceral than that. It's about right and wrong, not abstract political values.
With Merkel, Draghi was one of the grand figures of the old western order, an establishment giant who apparently represented stability, order, anti-populism etc. And yet he, like Merkel, risk becoming a symbol of all that was wrong with that age of short-termism and selfishness.
Zelensky is willing to die when he should be doing all he can to maintain the legitimate Ukrainian government, in exile if necessary. I don't think this is wisdom. But I see that for Atlanticists gagging for someone else to fight a continental war, it is praiseworthy.
He rightly sees his job as being to inspire his country to fight back. And that he’s doing superbly so far.
I see PB's resident Russia apologists have moved from "it is Western hysteria that the Russians will invade" to "if we dare do anything now he will use nukes".
The further invasion of Ukraine feels like a Sudetenland 1938 moment.
I think we will be fine. this is more a "in a fit of pique he decided to napalm Cheltenham" moment. I would be betting on Putin out of office by y/e if I were not so heavily invested in BJ being out of office, errm, worryingly soon
This Ukraine Crisis could, likely will, quickly subside into nothing from here now, with ceasefire, Ukraine surrender, talks in Moscow between the governments.
The reckoning on Boris is not cancelled till summer, it’s coming as soon as this thing dies down as the lazy and poor way he has handled the crisis only adds to the reasons to replace him.
I agree completely.
Russia will have overrun Ukraine by the end of the weekend and I'm afraid it will subside as news until the next of Putin's atrocities threatens to wake us up.
We will back to domestic politics very soon.
We may see this is appalling (it is) but MoonRabbit is right.
Ah, two cheeks of the same Putinist arse.
You're a really unpleasant extreme right winger.
I posted a sensible comment and you resorted to your usual pompous bellicosity.
(p.s. I loathe Putin)
It's just that if I was a paid to post stuff to benefit Russia in this current environment, on a board with a generally (*) intelligent readership and posters, I would post the stuff you are. "Oh of course I hate Putin. But look, it'll all blow over and Boris is really at fault. He needs replacing."
Or similar. As you did in your post.
(*) excepting myself
This post is just silly Jos, youve shown before you are better than this.
Why is it silly? If you had to do it, isn't that what you would do?
A good sockpuppet would alter their arguments for the audience.
I mean. But you are implying All my posts are doing it. like a bot, or sockpuppet. Which is just rude.
That’s a lot different than you seeing what is wrong about them, and coming back with a proper challenge, which I would actually welcome. It’s what the site is about?
Breaking: the ultimate sanction has been unleashed!
Russia has been kicked out of the Eurovision Song Contest
I am surprised Putin hasn't banned Russia from entering as too many display of campness, claiming corrupting young Russian minds towards homosexuality.....
Obviously the Ukrainian invasion wouldn't have happened with a strongman in the White House. A tyrant like Putin against Joe Biden well what a fuck up. For many on then Left that opposed Trump this is life coming at you fast.
Eh? Trump would have celebrated fellow 'strongman' genius and done absolutely nothing to block him.
He'd probably be trying to send weapons and ammo to Vlad to help him on his way.
The point is Putin wouldn't have dared invade Ukraine with Trump in the White House because of the latter's unpredictability. This is what Konstantin Kisin said in his recent video and I agree with it.
Yep. It's an uncomfortable truth that when Obama was in the White House Putin invaded Ukraine, and now Biden is he's done it again. He was (relatively) less belligerent in the intervening four years. It can't be a sustainable strategy long-term, but having a volatile US President to deal with is a pretty powerful deterrent to doing anything drastic.
I think the key has been covid isolation, not a change of government. By several accounts, it's done something to him.
Obviously the Ukrainian invasion wouldn't have happened with a strongman in the White House. A tyrant like Putin against Joe Biden well what a fuck up. For many on then Left that opposed Trump this is life coming at you fast.
You’re delusional.
As a reminder to everyone, Trump was impeached for blocking critical military aid to Ukraine as a form of blackmail.
With Merkel, Draghi was one of the grand figures of the old western order, an establishment giant who apparently represented stability, order, anti-populism etc. And yet he, like Merkel, risk becoming a symbol of all that was wrong with that age of short-termism and selfishness.
Zelensky is willing to die when he should be doing all he can to maintain the legitimate Ukrainian government, in exile if necessary. I don't think this is wisdom. But I see that for Atlanticists gagging for someone else to fight a continental war, it is praiseworthy.
He rightly sees his job as being to inspire his country to fight back. And that he’s doing superbly so far.
yes , its why I admire Richard the third (despite the sneaking suspicion he killed his nephews!) as the last king to die in battle - something noble about it
I see PB's resident Russia apologists have moved from "it is Western hysteria that the Russians will invade" to "if we dare do anything now he will use nukes".
The only person threatening WWIII is Putin.
You'd think that's where they'd concentrate their anger.
Putin calling on the Ukrainian army to overthrow its own government. That really is having lost all touch with reality.
A further bit of projection methinks. I wonder if he trusts his own troops.
The ideal resolution to this situation is for a senior Russian general who has a better grip on reality than Putin to stage a successful coup and shoot the bastard in the back of the head, followed by a ceasefire and a negotiated settlement. Zelenskyy daren't suggest it, but I would imagine that if the Russians agreed to give back Donetsk and Luhansk and let Ukraine choose its own friends, then he'd be willing to grant Crimea a free and fair vote on its future (which would probably return a decision to join Russia) as a sweetener.
Obviously the Ukrainian invasion wouldn't have happened with a strongman in the White House. A tyrant like Putin against Joe Biden well what a fuck up. For many on then Left that opposed Trump this is life coming at you fast.
I don't believe that is accurate at all. The only thing I would concede is that Putin might have thought that Trump was so bat shit crazy he would just launch an all out war. But in fact Trump had made clear all the way through he didn't give a shit about Europe, NATO or anything else overseas unless it impinged on his chances of remaining in office.
..and in the baragain was only yesterday sucking up to and praising Putin, like the degenerated rat he is.
I hope to God that this latest Russia love-in will be the final curtain for Trump. But I fear not.
Piece in NY Times about how Dems are going to lose big time to Trump or Trump standin unless they start delivering for working class in Ohio etc:
He also won whites without college degrees 67% to just 32% for Biden.
It was Biden making gains amongst college educated white suburban voters from Trump relative to Hillary in 2016 and still winning Black and Hispanic voters that won the Democrats the 2020 election.
Trump's share of the white working class vote was exactly the same in 2020 as it was in 2016. Biden however won white college educated voters by 3% in 2020 while Trump had won them by 4% in 2016
Obviously the Ukrainian invasion wouldn't have happened with a strongman in the White House. A tyrant like Putin against Joe Biden well what a fuck up. For many on then Left that opposed Trump this is life coming at you fast.
I don't believe that is accurate at all. The only thing I would concede is that Putin might have thought that Trump was so bat shit crazy he would just launch an all out war. But in fact Trump had made clear all the way through he didn't give a shit about Europe, NATO or anything else overseas unless it impinged on his chances of remaining in office.
Indeed, it's important to note that Russia did invade Ukraine during Trump's time in the White House. Now, it was unofficial and undeclared, but the fact is that there was an invasion and there were Russian troops on the ground.
Ben Judah @b_judah Zemmour: "We must absolutely reassure the Russians on Ukraine which, for them, is a Russian country."
Another Trumpist self-destructs.
If only Trtump himself would. From what we know of the GOP they seem quite inclined to subordinate everything to hatred of Biden, and whilst most will have condemned what has gone on, won't let that stop them supporting Trump if he still has the backin gof the base.
I would see the presence of German intelligence in Kiev as good news for Ukraine, all in all. It suggests some kind of assistance.
Why does the phrase with friends like these come to mind?
Because the British right-wing is scratching its anti-German itch this week? Germany cancelled Nord Stream 2 while the UK won't cancel Hilary Term at Eton. Course, the UK sent more material assistance to Ukraine, but instead of agreeing to unite some people want to pretend to be better in every way.
No you fuckwit we just recognise when some Governments are acting as barriers to a unified approach. Just like Germany is right now.
And Germany only agreed to suspend Nord Stream 2 because they had already been told by the Americans that if they didn't the US would find a more permanent way of shutting it down.
Something that really worries me is in 10 days or so if Russia has taken heavy losses and made little to no advance that Putin will deploy nuclear weapons. He seems mad enough to do it.
yes , sort of like the USA did with Japan . All those wanting Ukraine to get engaged with a long and bloody fight risk escalation with a nuclear power
he would only use tactical nukes carefully targeted
BREAKING: In a video conference call last night Ukraine President Zelensky told EU leaders: "This might be the last time you see me alive", two sources briefed on the call told me
Note also that the mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, has picked up a gun and will fight to defend his capital, as have many of the Ukraine cabinet. They truly value their democracy.
It's more visceral than that. It's about right and wrong, not abstract political values.
That is true, but I think that their democracy, which from very unpromising starts is quite remarkable, is intimately connected to those visceral feelings.
Obviously the Ukrainian invasion wouldn't have happened with a strongman in the White House. A tyrant like Putin against Joe Biden well what a fuck up. For many on then Left that opposed Trump this is life coming at you fast.
Eh? Trump would have celebrated fellow 'strongman' genius and done absolutely nothing to block him.
He'd probably be trying to send weapons and ammo to Vlad to help him on his way.
The point is Putin wouldn't have dared invade Ukraine with Trump in the White House because of the latter's unpredictability. This is what Konstantin Kisin said in his recent video and I agree with it.
Considering how much Trump revered a genuinely alpha leader, plus the carrot of a Trump Moscow, plus the rumoured kompromat (plus any other kompromat acquired through Trump's notoriously poor personal cyber-security), it's very likely that Putin would have done exactly the same - and Trump would have extracted some 'deal' from it.
I see PB's resident Russia apologists have moved from "it is Western hysteria that the Russians will invade" to "if we dare do anything now he will use nukes".
The only person threatening WWIII is Putin.
You'd think that's where they'd concentrate their anger.
if you mean me I am not angry just trying to be pragmatic and the opposite of anger - It is a discussion forum after all - we dont all have to agree and when we dont we dont have to throw in juvenile insults
I see PB's resident Russia apologists have moved from "it is Western hysteria that the Russians will invade" to "if we dare do anything now he will use nukes".
The only person threatening WWIII is Putin.
You'd think that's where they'd concentrate their anger.
Putin calling on the Ukrainian army to overthrow its own government. That really is having lost all touch with reality.
A further bit of projection methinks. I wonder if he trusts his own troops.
The ideal resolution to this situation is for a senior Russian general who has a better grip on reality than Putin to stage a successful coup and shoot the bastard in the back of the head, followed by a ceasefire and a negotiated settlement. Zelenskyy daren't suggest it, but I would imagine that if the Russians agreed to give back Donetsk and Luhansk and let Ukraine choose its own friends, then he'd be willing to grant Crimea a free and fair vote on its future (which would probably return a decision to join Russia) as a sweetener.
People keep saying this, but unless it's demography has changed radically in the last few years it probably wouldn't. Yes, it had a substantial number of Russians in it but a lot of them were very ambivalent about Russia itself. In 1991 it did (contrary to popular belief) vote to leave the USSR and stay with an independent Ukraine by 54-46.
With Merkel, Draghi was one of the grand figures of the old western order, an establishment giant who apparently represented stability, order, anti-populism etc. And yet he, like Merkel, risk becoming a symbol of all that was wrong with that age of short-termism and selfishness.
Zelensky is willing to die when he should be doing all he can to maintain the legitimate Ukrainian government, in exile if necessary. I don't think this is wisdom. But I see that for Atlanticists gagging for someone else to fight a continental war, it is praiseworthy.
He rightly sees his job as being to inspire his country to fight back. And that he’s doing superbly so far.
Besides which, Russia is not doing a terribly effective job of encircling his capital - at least not yet. I wouldn't be surprised if Zelenskyy's staff have an escape plan ready to go for when the situation further deteriorates, either for him or (if he's being extremely brave and has committed to going down with the ship) a logical successor like the Prime Minister.
Obviously the Ukrainian invasion wouldn't have happened with a strongman in the White House. A tyrant like Putin against Joe Biden well what a fuck up. For many on then Left that opposed Trump this is life coming at you fast.
Eh? Trump would have celebrated fellow 'strongman' genius and done absolutely nothing to block him.
He'd probably be trying to send weapons and ammo to Vlad to help him on his way.
The point is Putin wouldn't have dared invade Ukraine with Trump in the White House because of the latter's unpredictability. This is what Konstantin Kisin said in his recent video and I agree with it.
I don't. I think Trump is unstable and inconsistent, but that is not the same thing as being unpredictable. On the contrary, it is usually pretty easy to predict what his response to something is, even if he manages to surprise, even now, on the gratuitous offensiveness or self aggrandizement of it. He has increcdibly thin skin, is easily goaded, and usually quite simplistic.
Hmm. I'm wondering if the plan was airlift troops, take Kyiv by the weekend, install a puppet government and then play magnanimous? But the Ukrainians took back the airfield and didn't roll over. This may well have been long war gamed. But, am not sure the plan involved weeks of conventional fighting. Would explain Putin's ludicrous afternoon rant.
Breaking: the ultimate sanction has been unleashed!
Russia has been kicked out of the Eurovision Song Contest
I am surprised Putin hasn't banned Russia from entering as too many display of campness, claiming corrupting young Russian minds towards homosexuality.....
Remember TATU? 2003.
Yes, though they aren't gay. Right little divas at that Eurovision, mind.
Putin calling on the Ukrainian army to overthrow its own government. That really is having lost all touch with reality.
A further bit of projection methinks. I wonder if he trusts his own troops.
The ideal resolution to this situation is for a senior Russian general who has a better grip on reality than Putin to stage a successful coup and shoot the bastard in the back of the head, followed by a ceasefire and a negotiated settlement. Zelenskyy daren't suggest it, but I would imagine that if the Russians agreed to give back Donetsk and Luhansk and let Ukraine choose its own friends, then he'd be willing to grant Crimea a free and fair vote on its future (which would probably return a decision to join Russia) as a sweetener.
People keep saying this, but unless it's demography has changed radically in the last few years it probably wouldn't. Yes, it had a substantial number of Russians in it but a lot of them were very ambivalent about Russia itself. In 1991 it did (contrary to popular belief) vote to leave the USSR and stay with an independent Ukraine by 54-46.
It doesn't secure any Russian strategic aims.
Taking Crimea was designed to weaken Ukraine, but only a pro-Moscow voice in Ukraine could provide Putin with the borderland he wants. He didn't get one. He wanted to use Donetsk and Luhansk to embroil Ukraine in either conflict or paralysis. He didn't get it. Even if Russia got the land previously under the control of the rebels, it wouldn't meet Russian aims. Putin needs Ukraine outside outside influence.
BREAKING: In a video conference call last night Ukraine President Zelensky told EU leaders: "This might be the last time you see me alive", two sources briefed on the call told me
Note also that the mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, has picked up a gun and will fight to defend his capital, as have many of the Ukraine cabinet. They truly value their democracy.
Not even merely democracy. If there were any illusions about the contempt their 'brother' Putin in Russia feels for their very existence, they are gone now.
Russian American professor at Berkeley, giving some idea of the relationship between the two countries.
https://twitter.com/UrnovFyodor/status/1496972392198926343 1987 USSR: my platoon-mates and I, drafted at age 18, 50/50 Ukrainian-Russian. We bonded deeply. I picked up Ukrainian from Yura and Vitya (lower C+R). Our camaraderie thrived on our cultural kinship yet celebrated and protected our distinctness. Unlike today's atrocity.
Putin calling on the Ukrainian army to overthrow its own government. That really is having lost all touch with reality.
A further bit of projection methinks. I wonder if he trusts his own troops.
The ideal resolution to this situation is for a senior Russian general who has a better grip on reality than Putin to stage a successful coup and shoot the bastard in the back of the head, followed by a ceasefire and a negotiated settlement. Zelenskyy daren't suggest it, but I would imagine that if the Russians agreed to give back Donetsk and Luhansk and let Ukraine choose its own friends, then he'd be willing to grant Crimea a free and fair vote on its future (which would probably return a decision to join Russia) as a sweetener.
People keep saying this, but unless it's demography has changed radically in the last few years it probably wouldn't. Yes, it had a substantial number of Russians in it but a lot of them were very ambivalent about Russia itself. In 1991 it did (contrary to popular belief) vote to leave the USSR and stay with an independent Ukraine by 54-46.
I bow to your superior knowledge Sir! Still, all the more reason to have the vote, I guess. Ukraine gets to keep the territory and to demonstrate that the previous one was blatantly rigged.
Has Nordstream2 been 'cancelled'? If not, how long would it take to reverse the decision?
I wonder if Putin is betting on any sanctions being very short-lived once he wins and the world has to deal with the new reality.
Sending (say) anti-tank and other weapons are pretty irreversible.
The purpose of sanctions would be to punish Russian elites and hurt investment in the medium term in the hope that someone sane replaces Putin. Not to win a war against a madman who has already set his own young men on a road to death. Everything announced so far is sustainable for 10+ years, which is good.
I see PB's resident Russia apologists have moved from "it is Western hysteria that the Russians will invade" to "if we dare do anything now he will use nukes".
In what world is saying X will use nukes being an apologist for X? You must learn to distinguish "I think a thing will happen" from "I want that thing to happen."
Odds are heavily against use of nukes. We all pretend to think that Putin or potus have the sole trigger finger, but actually firing these things takes input from a lot of people most of whom are sane enough to realise the danger of ending up facing war crime proceedings if they play along with an obvious nutter.
I'm not a football expert but judging by general football fan reactions, closing down Chelsea is probably an automatic vote-winner at any time, war or no war.
The number one thing that would damage Russia is if the West (that includes us, but particularly the EU as well) stops buying from them. This is difficult to do as so many raw materials come from there.
En passant: by Vlad's logic, if he takes Kiev will he be giving Saint Petersburg back to Sweden?
Why stop at Greater Finland? We want Bornholm back. And Trøndelag. And while we’re at it give us back Bremen-Verden, Pomerania and Wismar too. Thieving bastards.
Come to think of it, it was us who invented Kievan Russia…
Seriously, wouldn't the addition of Finland to NATO strengthen it massively?
It has a huge land border with Russia. NATO could conduct 'exercises' along it all year round and the Russians would be obliged to post large numbers of troops on their side 'just in case'.
I do believe attitudes towards NATO have changed markedly in Finland of late. The Finns of course have every reason to be hostile and suspicious towards the Russians.
42-28 were against joining in January and the PM ruled it out, according to this:
I've never heard of Russia showing any real interest in Finland since WW2, though others may know otherwise. As neighbourly relations go, everyone seemed to move on after Russia had attacked Finland and Finland had then allied with Germany to attack Russia - you'd think it would have left lasting bad feeling, but it apprently didn't, perhaps because Finland has been ostentiously neutral ever since (which is why the PM is still reluctant). Active dislike between Russia and the Baltic States is far more intense, and there it really is NATO membership which is likely to be a deterrent.
"you'd think it would have left lasting bad feeling, but it apprently didn't" My deep connections to Finland of some 60 years tell me you couldn't be more wrong, and not just from those who were displaced from Karelia.
Breaking: the ultimate sanction has been unleashed!
Russia has been kicked out of the Eurovision Song Contest
I am surprised Putin hasn't banned Russia from entering as too many display of campness, claiming corrupting young Russian minds towards homosexuality.....
Remember TATU? 2003.
Yes, though they aren't gay. Right little divas at that Eurovision, mind.
Iraq made sure we got Nul Points.
Not that it is important but eurovison voting does not work that way in that it is a positive vote you give not a negative one. If Russia was allowed to compete then everyone would take more notice of the song and some would think "thats quite a nice song " and ironically they may get more votes .
Something that really worries me is in 10 days or so if Russia has taken heavy losses and made little to no advance that Putin will deploy nuclear weapons. He seems mad enough to do it.
I really don't think he will do that,
however what I am scared of would be if, after being defeated or such heavy casualties that he is forced to retreat, in a spitefully mood, he might explode a few bombs at the Chainable nuclear plant, spreading nuclear waste in to the atmosphere, if done when the wind was in the correct direction this would be devastating. and he could clame that it was Ukraine guns that did it, giving him plausible deniability.
I don't think this will happen, but sadly its possible.
Hmm. I'm wondering if the plan was airlift troops, take Kyiv by the weekend, install a puppet government and then play magnanimous? But the Ukrainians took back the airfield and didn't roll over. This may well have been long war gamed. But, am not sure the plan involved weeks of conventional fighting. Would explain Putin's ludicrous afternoon rant.
The longer Ukraine hold out, the madder Putin is going to start looking.
Hmm. I'm wondering if the plan was airlift troops, take Kyiv by the weekend, install a puppet government and then play magnanimous? But the Ukrainians took back the airfield and didn't roll over. This may well have been long war gamed. But, am not sure the plan involved weeks of conventional fighting. Would explain Putin's ludicrous afternoon rant.
The longer Ukraine hold out, the madder Putin is going to start looking.
yes and thats a worry .I dont blame the Ukrainians and admire them but its why the west are staying out of it . The west secretly want this over and done with to avoid escalation
Breaking: the ultimate sanction has been unleashed!
Russia has been kicked out of the Eurovision Song Contest
I am surprised Putin hasn't banned Russia from entering as too many display of campness, claiming corrupting young Russian minds towards homosexuality.....
Remember TATU? 2003.
Yes, though they aren't gay. Right little divas at that Eurovision, mind.
Iraq made sure we got Nul Points.
If Russia stay in we might actually not be bottom!
With Merkel, Draghi was one of the grand figures of the old western order, an establishment giant who apparently represented stability, order, anti-populism etc. And yet he, like Merkel, risk becoming a symbol of all that was wrong with that age of short-termism and selfishness.
Zelensky is willing to die when he should be doing all he can to maintain the legitimate Ukrainian government, in exile if necessary. I don't think this is wisdom. But I see that for Atlanticists gagging for someone else to fight a continental war, it is praiseworthy.
He rightly sees his job as being to inspire his country to fight back. And that he’s doing superbly so far.
Besides which, Russia is not doing a terribly effective job of encircling his capital - at least not yet. I wouldn't be surprised if Zelenskyy's staff have an escape plan ready to go for when the situation further deteriorates, either for him or (if he's being extremely brave and has committed to going down with the ship) a logical successor like the Prime Minister.
I would hope they have done what Stalin did - sent the Prime Minister (Molotov) and the rest of the government to a place of safety (Kuybyshev) while (mostly) staying behind himself to avoid giving the impression he thought Moscow was about to be captured.
Breaking: the ultimate sanction has been unleashed!
Russia has been kicked out of the Eurovision Song Contest
I am surprised Putin hasn't banned Russia from entering as too many display of campness, claiming corrupting young Russian minds towards homosexuality.....
Remember TATU? 2003.
Yes, though they aren't gay. Right little divas at that Eurovision, mind.
Iraq made sure we got Nul Points.
Although I think Jemini may have helped with that.
What do you think? Do you think it's a malicious act by a cold and soulless nation?
I think it's a principled act by a cold and soulless administration with really shitty principles.
Your turn. What do you think of it?
As I put it on the PT really - I disagree with Germany's reticence in this matter but I don't feel right condemning them for it, or ascribing negative national characteristics to it. I think it largely comes from something that I find understandable and not malign.
Ukrainians are throwing glass bottles full of petrol at Russian tanks, but you understand why the Germans are too nobly principled to help the poor fuckers out?
I don't understand.
I don't applaud their current stance on this conflict but, yes, I think I do understand at least some of why Germany has wanted to build a positive relationship with Russia and why they are predisposed to keep out of military conflict outside of their borders. What I understand less is somebody *not* having any appreciation of this.
But if you want to go full monty condemnation from here in the UK about a shameful, commerce-grubbing nation selling out Ukraine to appease and enable tyranny, if that's the analysis you like, the one that rings true to you, you go right ahead. It seems to be a popular take, both here and elsewhere. I'm just not keen on it and I prefer mine.
Stopping russian government bond sales in London and NY would be interesting. Investors want to buy them in London or NY because of legal protections and the ability of the courts to pass and enforce judgements against state actors. It could genuinely cripple the Russian state because no sensible investors would buy Russian government bonds sold under Russian or even EU law.
Why has it not happened? Too expensive for London and NY? Hmmm… Swift…
Germans = bad London = good
I think it needs to be coordinated with the US and probably needs quite a lot of legal checking.
The City has been briefed that we're going to get caught up in this, probably quite significantly. It's just awaiting the package from the government now and agreeing a common stance with the US.
Obviously the Ukrainian invasion wouldn't have happened with a strongman in the White House. A tyrant like Putin against Joe Biden well what a fuck up. For many on then Left that opposed Trump this is life coming at you fast.
Eh? Trump would have celebrated fellow 'strongman' genius and done absolutely nothing to block him.
He'd probably be trying to send weapons and ammo to Vlad to help him on his way.
So why didn't he make his move then? The same reason he took Crimea when he did the opportunity presented itself thanks to another weak man leader in the WH.
I would see the presence of German intelligence in Kiev as good news for Ukraine, all in all. It suggests some kind of assistance.
Why does the phrase with friends like these come to mind?
Because the British right-wing is scratching its anti-German itch this week? Germany cancelled Nord Stream 2 while the UK won't cancel Hilary Term at Eton. Course, the UK sent more material assistance to Ukraine, but instead of agreeing to unite some people want to pretend to be better in every way.
No you fuckwit we just recognise when some Governments are acting as barriers to a unified approach. Just like Germany is right now.
And Germany only agreed to suspend Nord Stream 2 because they had already been told by the Americans that if they didn't the US would find a more permanent way of shutting it down.
Though AIUI the German Greens, who are actually the Russia hawks within the governing coalition, never wanted Nord Stream 2 in the first place. So at least one element of said coalition can chalk this up as a win.
Thanks for Putin's actions, Russia has lost its grand prix and people can't access Facebook.
But not all the consequences have been positive.
I dont wish to be flippant but as somebody who hates both formula one and facebook that woudl be an advantage to me if Russsian.If you add in not having an entry in the Eurovision , I might even do a "yes get in" fist pump
Hmm. I'm wondering if the plan was airlift troops, take Kyiv by the weekend, install a puppet government and then play magnanimous? But the Ukrainians took back the airfield and didn't roll over. This may well have been long war gamed. But, am not sure the plan involved weeks of conventional fighting. Would explain Putin's ludicrous afternoon rant.
The longer Ukraine hold out, the madder Putin is going to start looking.
yes and thats a worry .I dont blame the Ukrainians and admire them but its why the west are staying out of it . The west secretly want this over and done with to avoid escalation
The UK/US appear to giving Ukraine as much military suport as they can short of actually sending in troops (and there are some english speaking mercenaries / volunteers in Ukraine. Who knows whether some of those are really “volunteers“ ?)
I count four US refueling aircraft on FlightRadar circling around in Poland & Romania, plus at least one RAF reconnaissance plane. The US is obviously giving the Ukrainian forces every piece of intel they can lay their hands on.
If they wanted the war to be over they wouldn’t be bothering with any of this stuff.
I see PB's resident Russia apologists have moved from "it is Western hysteria that the Russians will invade" to "if we dare do anything now he will use nukes".
In what world is saying X will use nukes being an apologist for X? You must learn to distinguish "I think a thing will happen" from "I want that thing to happen."
Odds are heavily against use of nukes. We all pretend to think that Putin or potus have the sole trigger finger, but actually firing these things takes input from a lot of people most of whom are sane enough to realise the danger of ending up facing war crime proceedings if they play along with an obvious nutter.
Facing war crime proceedings is slight better than instant death....
Something that really worries me is in 10 days or so if Russia has taken heavy losses and made little to no advance that Putin will deploy nuclear weapons. He seems mad enough to do it.
I really don't think he will do that,
however what I am scared of would be if, after being defeated or such heavy casualties that he is forced to retreat, in a spitefully mood, he might explode a few bombs at the Chainable nuclear plant, spreading nuclear waste in to the atmosphere, if done when the wind was in the correct direction this would be devastating. and he could clame that it was Ukraine guns that did it, giving him plausible deniability.
I don't think this will happen, but sadly its possible.
He doesn't need nuclear weapons. What worries me is if he meets heavy resistance and street fighting in Kyiv, he simply decides to carpet bomb the place, Dresden style.
In his mind I am sure he could twist it as every citizen is part of an armed militia, making them enemy combatants, therefore fair game.
The longer this goes on the more I worry that he will commit an atrocity. I hope I'm wrong, but if he did decide to carpet bomb a couple of cities, what are we going to do? Finally ban him from Swift?
Sadly I think the only people who can prevent him are his own generals.
Stopping russian government bond sales in London and NY would be interesting. Investors want to buy them in London or NY because of legal protections and the ability of the courts to pass and enforce judgements against state actors. It could genuinely cripple the Russian state because no sensible investors would buy Russian government bonds sold under Russian or even EU law.
Why has it not happened? Too expensive for London and NY? Hmmm… Swift…
Germans = bad London = good
More that banks are already sanctioned, which does most of the work in afflicting the Russian economy without interfering in the long-run advantages thsy lead to dollar-denominated trade, UK-dominant capital markets, etc.
Ben Judah @b_judah Zemmour: "We must absolutely reassure the Russians on Ukraine which, for them, is a Russian country."
Back Macron, lay the Putanist right.
The opposite might happen, at least in first round. The zemmour supporters, yes trump like, cross class boundaries thinking the same, arn’t natural Macron fans, do they actually agree with zemmour on this? If not, his poll dip favours le pen surely?
Obviously the Ukrainian invasion wouldn't have happened with a strongman in the White House. A tyrant like Putin against Joe Biden well what a fuck up. For many on then Left that opposed Trump this is life coming at you fast.
Eh? Trump would have celebrated fellow 'strongman' genius and done absolutely nothing to block him.
He'd probably be trying to send weapons and ammo to Vlad to help him on his way.
The point is Putin wouldn't have dared invade Ukraine with Trump in the White House because of the latter's unpredictability. This is what Konstantin Kisin said in his recent video and I agree with it.
Considering how much Trump revered a genuinely alpha leader, plus the carrot of a Trump Moscow, plus the rumoured kompromat (plus any other kompromat acquired through Trump's notoriously poor personal cyber-security), it's very likely that Putin would have done exactly the same - and Trump would have extracted some 'deal' from it.
Not to mention that Trump illegally withheld military aid to Ukraine for as long as he could until the crime was about to be exposed.
Something that really worries me is in 10 days or so if Russia has taken heavy losses and made little to no advance that Putin will deploy nuclear weapons. He seems mad enough to do it.
I really don't think he will do that,
however what I am scared of would be if, after being defeated or such heavy casualties that he is forced to retreat, in a spitefully mood, he might explode a few bombs at the Chainable nuclear plant, spreading nuclear waste in to the atmosphere, if done when the wind was in the correct direction this would be devastating. and he could clame that it was Ukraine guns that did it, giving him plausible deniability.
I don't think this will happen, but sadly its possible.
He doesn't need nuclear weapons. What worries me is if he meets heavy resistance and street fighting in Kyiv, he simply decides to carpet bomb the place, Dresden style.
In his mind I am sure he could twist it as every citizen is part of an armed militia, making them enemy combatants, therefore fair game.
The longer this goes on the more I worry that he will commit an atrocity. I hope I'm wrong, but if he did decide to carpet bomb a couple of cities, what are we going to do? Finally ban him from Swift?
Sadly I think the only people who can prevent him are his own generals.
That would be the end of him. There are deep cultural and family ties. Part of his argument, popular with Russian Nationalists, is that Ukrainians are really Russian anyways. Not sure carpet bombing them would be the way to go.
The further invasion of Ukraine feels like a Sudetenland 1938 moment.
I’ve been brooding about this too. The medium term for our continent looks quite dodgy.
Putin installs a puppet regime in Ukraine and NATO responds with some ‘this far and no further’ activity, tooling up on the border between the West and a now nakedly aggressive Russia. This precarious stand-off becomes the new normal, a war with the potential for mass ruination or much of Eastern Europe sliding back into tyranny only a miscalculation or a failed nerve away.
Thoughts turn to America and we find that the betting favourite for next President is Donald J Trump. Seems ridiculous, and I think not myself, but the odds are short and there’s a reason for that. And if it isn’t him it’s likely to be someone who has proved themselves sufficiently like him to capture the GOP nomination. What price the US commitment to hold the line in Europe then? What happens if it isn’t there? The EU isn’t strong on foreign policy and defence. It's miles off being that sort of outfit. There’s us, of course, but we’re flapping around on our own and pretending it’s 1953.
So, no, it’s not looking good. I remember one time drinking with a mate in the 90s and we were sardonic-lamenting that ‘current affairs’ were so flat and it seemed like nothing much had happened since the Miners Strike. A return of that now would be most welcome.
yeah nothing much happened in the 90s at all after the first gulf war...then after september 11 and the iraq war not much happened till the 2008 financial crisis. Since then every year seems worse than the last
And in the last few years really taking off as regards 'interesting' things. About coinciding with my starting posting on here, come to think of it. Odd.
Stopping russian government bond sales in London and NY would be interesting. Investors want to buy them in London or NY because of legal protections and the ability of the courts to pass and enforce judgements against state actors. It could genuinely cripple the Russian state because no sensible investors would buy Russian government bonds sold under Russian or even EU law.
Why has it not happened? Too expensive for London and NY? Hmmm… Swift…
Germans = bad London = good
I think it needs to be coordinated with the US and probably needs quite a lot of legal checking.
The City has been briefed that we're going to get caught up in this, probably quite significantly. It's just awaiting the package from the government now and agreeing a common stance with the US.
Whereas Germany?
Bullied into suspending NS2, blocking Russia's expulsion from SWIFT, still guzzling gazprom, embargoing as far as they're able munitions to Ukraine, intelligence services distracting the Ukrainian army while they're being invaded.
Going really well.
Edit - oh yeah, and they're bravely delivering some helmets to a neighbouring country. Solidarity.
I'm not a football expert but judging by general football fan reactions, closing down Chelsea is probably an automatic vote-winner at any time, war or no war.
The number one thing that would damage Russia is if the West (that includes us, but particularly the EU as well) stops buying from them. This is difficult to do as so many raw materials come from there.
En passant: by Vlad's logic, if he takes Kiev will he be giving Saint Petersburg back to Sweden?
Why stop at Greater Finland? We want Bornholm back. And Trøndelag. And while we’re at it give us back Bremen-Verden, Pomerania and Wismar too. Thieving bastards.
Come to think of it, it was us who invented Kievan Russia…
Seriously, wouldn't the addition of Finland to NATO strengthen it massively?
It has a huge land border with Russia. NATO could conduct 'exercises' along it all year round and the Russians would be obliged to post large numbers of troops on their side 'just in case'.
I do believe attitudes towards NATO have changed markedly in Finland of late. The Finns of course have every reason to be hostile and suspicious towards the Russians.
42-28 were against joining in January and the PM ruled it out, according to this:
I've never heard of Russia showing any real interest in Finland since WW2, though others may know otherwise. As neighbourly relations go, everyone seemed to move on after Russia had attacked Finland and Finland had then allied with Germany to attack Russia - you'd think it would have left lasting bad feeling, but it apprently didn't, perhaps because Finland has been ostentiously neutral ever since (which is why the PM is still reluctant). Active dislike between Russia and the Baltic States is far more intense, and there it really is NATO membership which is likely to be a deterrent.
"you'd think it would have left lasting bad feeling, but it apprently didn't" My deep connections to Finland of some 60 years tell me you couldn't be more wrong, and not just from those who were displaced from Karelia.
Ben Judah @b_judah Zemmour: "We must absolutely reassure the Russians on Ukraine which, for them, is a Russian country."
Dunno. Maybe the Spectator will stop giving him glowing editorials.
Saw that mendacious shit Fraser Nelson on Swedish tv last week, spouting blatant lies. The audience just lapped it up. Anglophilia can be a crippling condition. One has a duty to pose probing questions.
Ben Judah @b_judah Zemmour: "We must absolutely reassure the Russians on Ukraine which, for them, is a Russian country."
Back Macron, lay the Putanist right.
The opposite might happen, at least in first round. The zemmour supporters, yes trump like, cross class boundaries thinking the same, arn’t natural Macron fans, do they actually agree with zemmour on this? If not, his poll dip favours le pen surely?
Is Zemmour going to get on the ballot? last time I looked he was at about 320 supporters of the 500 he needs and only a week or so till the deadline.
With Merkel, Draghi was one of the grand figures of the old western order, an establishment giant who apparently represented stability, order, anti-populism etc. And yet he, like Merkel, risk becoming a symbol of all that was wrong with that age of short-termism and selfishness.
Zelensky is willing to die when he should be doing all he can to maintain the legitimate Ukrainian government, in exile if necessary. I don't think this is wisdom. But I see that for Atlanticists gagging for someone else to fight a continental war, it is praiseworthy.
He rightly sees his job as being to inspire his country to fight back. And that he’s doing superbly so far.
Of course he is brave and inspiring. I am merely talking about the best good he can do for the Ukrainian people. And I think it is a little unfair to ascribe their will totally to Zelensky. They rightly want to be free and to resist. What they need over the next decade is a legitimate voice to articulate opposition to the inevitable military puppet regime.
EXCLUSIVE: I have been given a copy of document issued today by Russian Ministry of Health. It indicates Russia is anticipating a massive medical emergency & has ordered health organisations to immediately identify medical staff ready to relocate & work. https://twitter.com/EJ_Burrows/status/1497252061678813187/photo/1
Tough old day. I got arrested by the Ukrainian army for filming them: "Are you a Russian spy?" No etc. They were nicer than Putin. I got a cup of tea. Spent time at Ukraine Int HQ as they checked me out. Never mind. #Putin's war is not going well.
Something that really worries me is in 10 days or so if Russia has taken heavy losses and made little to no advance that Putin will deploy nuclear weapons. He seems mad enough to do it.
I really don't think he will do that,
however what I am scared of would be if, after being defeated or such heavy casualties that he is forced to retreat, in a spitefully mood, he might explode a few bombs at the Chainable nuclear plant, spreading nuclear waste in to the atmosphere, if done when the wind was in the correct direction this would be devastating. and he could clame that it was Ukraine guns that did it, giving him plausible deniability.
I don't think this will happen, but sadly its possible.
He doesn't need nuclear weapons. What worries me is if he meets heavy resistance and street fighting in Kyiv, he simply decides to carpet bomb the place, Dresden style.
In his mind I am sure he could twist it as every citizen is part of an armed militia, making them enemy combatants, therefore fair game.
The longer this goes on the more I worry that he will commit an atrocity. I hope I'm wrong, but if he did decide to carpet bomb a couple of cities, what are we going to do? Finally ban him from Swift?
Sadly I think the only people who can prevent him are his own generals.
The big problem for Putin is that his own population (or a very large part of it at any rate) won't buy that kind of excuse. Just because the security forces are able to scare them off organising mass demonstrations, it doesn't mean that they're stupid - and by all accounts there is little appetite amongst Russians at large for a war with a nation with which they feel kinship ties.
Putin can't just switch his rhetoric from "we must save the Ukrainian people from Nazism" to "all the Ukrainians are Nazis and must die horribly" without provoking a degree of incredulity that might be sufficient to precipitate a revolt.
Besides, pounding Ukrainian cities to rubble might not even have the intended tactical payoff: creating a warren of shattered buildings and concrete rubble in Stalingrad did not develop necessarily to the Wehrmacht's advantage.
Serious question to Malmesbury - When do you plan to end the covid data? Its no great hassle to scroll over it (as you may have guessed I gave up on covid over a year ago) as I take no interest in it but just wondered if you have an end game plan!
BREAKING: Former French PM Francois Fillon tells the Journal du Dimanche he will resign from his positions with top Russian firms Sibur and Zarubezhneft.
Obviously the Ukrainian invasion wouldn't have happened with a strongman in the White House. A tyrant like Putin against Joe Biden well what a fuck up. For many on then Left that opposed Trump this is life coming at you fast.
Hello Lord Wakefield. Bizarre point of view, I have to say. Ah well.
BREAKING: In a video conference call last night Ukraine President Zelensky told EU leaders: "This might be the last time you see me alive", two sources briefed on the call told me
Note also that the mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, has picked up a gun and will fight to defend his capital, as have many of the Ukraine cabinet. They truly value their democracy.
Not even merely democracy. If there were any illusions about the contempt their 'brother' Putin in Russia feels for their very existence, they are gone now.
Not sure why yesterday Boris said "fellow slavs". Has he not heard of Russo-Polish relations, or Serbs v. Croats?
- Cases down. Falling at a slower rate now, but still falling. Scotland R continues to bounce around 1 - In hospital down. - MV beds down - Admissions down - R solidly below 1 - Deaths down
What strikes me is what we are asking of the Ukrainian, to fight alone in a war of survival, but with extra weaponry. In essence, we are asking them to make the war more brutal, more attritional, more bloody to deter Russia. Some of what we provide might help shield the civilians in cities, but on average the emphasis of our defence help is not immediately humanitarian in nature.
Whatever the rights, wrongs and realpolitic of the eastern expansion of NATO over the last 3 decades - too far, correct or not far enough, that, bluntly, is our ask, as allies, of the Ukrainian people.
So, when I turn to sanctions, narrow based sanctions on the Russian elites don't cut it. Our ask of our ordinary Ukranian friends is way more of our ask on ordinary Russians living on the other side of this war. Hit the elites hard, yes, definitely, but we should not shy from impact on ordinary Russians, nor indeed of some impact on ourselves.
Today at 10:30 am at the entrances to Chernihiv, Hostomel and Melitopol there were heavy fighting. People died. Next time I'll try to move the war schedule to talk to #MarioDraghi at a specific time. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to fight for its people. 11:36 AM · Feb 25, 2022"
My latest info is that EU now keen to press ahead on personal sanctions on Putin and Lavrov. UK position was that this was legally difficult (sanctioning a head of state and would tie up efforts which could go into more meaningful pressure). But this ground seems to be shifting https://twitter.com/annemcelvoy/status/1497260383697997826
Obviously the Ukrainian invasion wouldn't have happened with a strongman in the White House. A tyrant like Putin against Joe Biden well what a fuck up. For many on then Left that opposed Trump this is life coming at you fast.
Eh? Trump would have celebrated fellow 'strongman' genius and done absolutely nothing to block him.
He'd probably be trying to send weapons and ammo to Vlad to help him on his way.
So why didn't he make his move then? The same reason he took Crimea when he did the opportunity presented itself thanks to another weak man leader in the WH.
Well Putin had his own man in the WH between January 2017 and January 2021.
Lord Wakefield? Was the Lord HawHaw avatar already taken?
The further invasion of Ukraine feels like a Sudetenland 1938 moment.
I think we will be fine. this is more a "in a fit of pique he decided to napalm Cheltenham" moment. I would be betting on Putin out of office by y/e if I were not so heavily invested in BJ being out of office, errm, worryingly soon
This Ukraine Crisis could, likely will, quickly subside into nothing from here now, with ceasefire, Ukraine surrender, talks in Moscow between the governments.
The reckoning on Boris is not cancelled till summer, it’s coming as soon as this thing dies down as the lazy and poor way he has handled the crisis only adds to the reasons to replace him.
I agree completely.
Russia will have overrun Ukraine by the end of the weekend and I'm afraid it will subside as news until the next of Putin's atrocities threatens to wake us up.
We will back to domestic politics very soon.
We may see this is appalling (it is) but MoonRabbit is right.
Ah, two cheeks of the same Putinist arse.
LOL 😂 it’s quite clear from 2500 posts I’m not a Putinist, nor a leftie!
Putin's not a leftie either!
He’s not. But so many left wing and right wing minds are hot wired and living in the past, such as the 12 Labour politicians and their letter so predictably supported Putin, they can’t tell the difference from communists or Putin in the Kremlin.
In his last election he campaigned on Conservative values, his support for Russian church etc. sort of things the Marxists had no time for and worse by their actions.
Putin's United Russia's main opponent is the Communist Party, Russian elections are a bit like alien v predator!
Russians don't really do liberalism except for a handful of highly educated and very rich people living in the big cities
Putin has no 'main opponent'. He has performative opponents that he can beat very comfortably in staged contests. Real opponents - the likes of Navalny - are jailed or killed.
At one time (the 2000 election), the Communists really were a force that might win. Indeed, that was one of the main reasons Yeltsin resigned and Putin took over. However, those days are long gone.
This is why talk of oligarchs is anachronistic. In 2000, there were meaningful points of dispersed power. The oligarchs were one such (or several such, depending on your take), as were the media networks they and others controlled. As were semi-autonomous parts of the state, including the prosecutors office, as was Yeltsin and his family for that matter.
No longer. All meaningful power and control of all significant money resides in the Kremlin or via people franchised by it. And by 'the Kremlin', that means Putin, personally and individually. He wields more power in Russia than any individual since Stalin; he is a republican tsar.
But like tsars, and like Stalin, he is still vulnerable to a coup, a revolution or an assassin's bomb or bullet.
That was such a depressing post, I’m glad it finished on an optimistic note 🙂
I’m replying mainly so this is replicated and read by a new audience just switching on, because to me you have summed up this history very well.
Something that really worries me is in 10 days or so if Russia has taken heavy losses and made little to no advance that Putin will deploy nuclear weapons. He seems mad enough to do it.
I really don't think he will do that,
however what I am scared of would be if, after being defeated or such heavy casualties that he is forced to retreat, in a spitefully mood, he might explode a few bombs at the Chainable nuclear plant, spreading nuclear waste in to the atmosphere, if done when the wind was in the correct direction this would be devastating. and he could clame that it was Ukraine guns that did it, giving him plausible deniability.
I don't think this will happen, but sadly its possible.
He doesn't need nuclear weapons. What worries me is if he meets heavy resistance and street fighting in Kyiv, he simply decides to carpet bomb the place, Dresden style.
In his mind I am sure he could twist it as every citizen is part of an armed militia, making them enemy combatants, therefore fair game.
The longer this goes on the more I worry that he will commit an atrocity. I hope I'm wrong, but if he did decide to carpet bomb a couple of cities, what are we going to do? Finally ban him from Swift?
Sadly I think the only people who can prevent him are his own generals.
That would be the end of him. There are deep cultural and family ties. Part of his argument, popular with Russian Nationalists, is that Ukrainians are really Russian anyways. Not sure carpet bombing them would be the way to go.
About as smart as the British shelling Dublin. Look how that turned out.
Comments
Ben Judah
@b_judah
Zemmour: "We must absolutely reassure the Russians on Ukraine which, for them, is a Russian country."
In fact the design was reworked to use metric, the engines were completely different and the defensive armament were Russian cannon instead of 0.5s and there were many, many other changes.
Apparently they could use some American spares - B-29 tires were bought via surplus yards in the US!
And ummmm... Trump did... nothing.
Putin wants to end the Ukraine invasion as fast as possible.
But if Ukraine drags it on and on, that would be a colossal problem for Putin.
So it's crucial to support Ukraine to resist.
As someone else said: "You have the watches. But we have the time."
https://twitter.com/antoguerrera/status/1497250744889532417
That’s a lot different than you seeing what is wrong about them, and coming back with a proper challenge, which I would actually welcome. It’s what the site is about?
You'd think that's where they'd concentrate their anger.
He also won whites without college degrees 67% to just 32% for Biden.
It was Biden making gains amongst college educated white suburban voters from Trump relative to Hillary in 2016 and still winning Black and Hispanic voters that won the Democrats the 2020 election.
Trump's share of the white working class vote was exactly the same in 2020 as it was in 2016. Biden however won white college educated voters by 3% in 2020 while Trump had won them by 4% in 2016
And Germany only agreed to suspend Nord Stream 2 because they had already been told by the Americans that if they didn't the US would find a more permanent way of shutting it down.
I wonder if Putin is betting on any sanctions being very short-lived once he wins and the world has to deal with the new reality.
Sending (say) anti-tank and other weapons are pretty irreversible.
Russian censor RossComNadzor announced it starts partial blocking of Facebook/Meta "due to violations of freedom of speech"...
Some convoluted thinking going on there.
But the Ukrainians took back the airfield and didn't roll over.
This may well have been long war gamed. But, am not sure the plan involved weeks of conventional fighting.
Would explain Putin's ludicrous afternoon rant.
Iraq made sure we got Nul Points.
Taking Crimea was designed to weaken Ukraine, but only a pro-Moscow voice in Ukraine could provide Putin with the borderland he wants. He didn't get one. He wanted to use Donetsk and Luhansk to embroil Ukraine in either conflict or paralysis. He didn't get it. Even if Russia got the land previously under the control of the rebels, it wouldn't meet Russian aims. Putin needs Ukraine outside outside influence.
https://twitter.com/UrnovFyodor/status/1496972392198926343
1987 USSR: my platoon-mates and I, drafted at age 18, 50/50 Ukrainian-Russian.
We bonded deeply.
I picked up Ukrainian from Yura and Vitya (lower C+R). Our camaraderie thrived on our cultural kinship yet celebrated and protected our distinctness.
Unlike today's atrocity.
Odds are heavily against use of nukes. We all pretend to think that Putin or potus have the sole trigger finger, but actually firing these things takes input from a lot of people most of whom are sane enough to realise the danger of ending up facing war crime proceedings if they play along with an obvious nutter.
however what I am scared of would be if, after being defeated or such heavy casualties that he is forced to retreat, in a spitefully mood, he might explode a few bombs at the Chainable nuclear plant, spreading nuclear waste in to the atmosphere, if done when the wind was in the correct direction this would be devastating. and he could clame that it was Ukraine guns that did it, giving him plausible deniability.
I don't think this will happen, but sadly its possible.
But if you want to go full monty condemnation from here in the UK about a shameful, commerce-grubbing nation selling out Ukraine to appease and enable tyranny, if that's the analysis you like, the one that rings true to you, you go right ahead. It seems to be a popular take, both here and elsewhere. I'm just not keen on it and I prefer mine.
I count four US refueling aircraft on FlightRadar circling around in Poland & Romania, plus at least one RAF reconnaissance plane. The US is obviously giving the Ukrainian forces every piece of intel they can lay their hands on.
If they wanted the war to be over they wouldn’t be bothering with any of this stuff.
In his mind I am sure he could twist it as every citizen is part of an armed militia, making them enemy combatants, therefore fair game.
The longer this goes on the more I worry that he will commit an atrocity. I hope I'm wrong, but if he did decide to carpet bomb a couple of cities, what are we going to do? Finally ban him from Swift?
Sadly I think the only people who can prevent him are his own generals.
Here is Andrey Rublev.
https://twitter.com/tsn_sports/status/1497234776905842688?s=21
There are deep cultural and family ties. Part of his argument, popular with Russian Nationalists, is that Ukrainians are really Russian anyways.
Not sure carpet bombing them would be the way to go.
Going really well.
Edit - oh yeah, and they're bravely delivering some helmets to a neighbouring country. Solidarity.
Vladimir Putin is in trouble.
https://twitter.com/johnsweeneyroar/status/1497249498258620419
Interesting - he argues in the video that Putin is staying his hand in Kyiv because the optics of levelling the city would play very badly at home.
Putin can't just switch his rhetoric from "we must save the Ukrainian people from Nazism" to "all the Ukrainians are Nazis and must die horribly" without provoking a degree of incredulity that might be sufficient to precipitate a revolt.
Besides, pounding Ukrainian cities to rubble might not even have the intended tactical payoff: creating a warren of shattered buildings and concrete rubble in Stalingrad did not develop necessarily to the Wehrmacht's advantage.
It comes after Tory MP @TomTugendhat suggested Mr Fillon, who served under Nicolas Sarkozy, could be hit with sanctions.
https://twitter.com/jamesfraney/status/1497255808924626946
- Cases down. Falling at a slower rate now, but still falling. Scotland R continues to bounce around 1
- In hospital down.
- MV beds down
- Admissions down - R solidly below 1
- Deaths down
What strikes me is what we are asking of the Ukrainian, to fight alone in a war of survival, but with extra weaponry. In essence, we are asking them to make the war more brutal, more attritional, more bloody to deter Russia. Some of what we provide might help shield the civilians in cities, but on average the emphasis of our defence help is not immediately humanitarian in nature.
Whatever the rights, wrongs and realpolitic of the eastern expansion of NATO over the last 3 decades - too far, correct or not far enough, that, bluntly, is our ask, as allies, of the Ukrainian people.
So, when I turn to sanctions, narrow based sanctions on the Russian elites don't cut it. Our ask of our ordinary Ukranian friends is way more of our ask on ordinary Russians living on the other side of this war. Hit the elites hard, yes, definitely, but we should not shy from impact on ordinary Russians, nor indeed of some impact on ourselves.
@ZelenskyyUa
Today at 10:30 am at the entrances to Chernihiv, Hostomel and Melitopol there were heavy fighting. People died. Next time I'll try to move the war schedule to talk to #MarioDraghi at a specific time. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to fight for its people.
11:36 AM · Feb 25, 2022"
https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1497173609957236738
https://twitter.com/annemcelvoy/status/1497260383697997826
Lord Wakefield? Was the Lord HawHaw avatar already taken?
I’m replying mainly so this is replicated and read by a new audience just switching on, because to me you have summed up this history very well.
Needing to make tanks and sell them to Poland and the Baltic States though, is a different matter.