What should the West do? the UK view of a range of suggestions – YouGov – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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I would see the presence of German intelligence in Kiev as good news for Ukraine, all in all. It suggests some kind of assistance.williamglenn said:The head of the German Intelligence Agency had to be evacuated from Ukraine. Apparently he didn't believe an invasion would happen...
https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise/praesident-des-bundesnachrichtendienstes-wurde-aus-hoechster-not-aus-der-ukraine-gerettet_id_59192174.html0 -
might not be very good but will be more than a match for Ukrainenumbertwelve said:
If this turns into Vlad’s Russo-Japanese war it will be the start of the end, just as that conflict was for Nicholas II….NerysHughes said:
Ive got a feeling the Russian Army is not very goodChris said:The BBC quotes the MoD as saying "Russian armoured vehicles have opened up a new advance route towards the capital, having been unsuccessful in capturing Chernihiv".
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Also, I think they're casualties, not fatalities. Something that really annoys me in reporting.JosiasJessop said:
To put it into context, in the second Iraq war the US lost about 4,500 people killed, from combat and other causes. In Afghanistan, they lost about 2,300. Those were in wars that lasted over a decade in the first case, and two decades in the second.MaxPB said:
Yeah even at 10% of those numbers that's more that Putin expected to lose over the whole conflict. If that's even close to correct the pressure at home will start building as husbands, brothers, sons and fathers start coming home in body bags.CarlottaVance said:Even if this is only half a quarter right, this is no walk in the park:
Russia has lost 2,800 troops, 80 tanks, 516 armored vehicles, 10 airplanes, and 7 helicopters in its invasion of Ukraine: [Ukrainian] deputy defense minister.
Numbers as of 3pm Ukraine time.
https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1497214326213652480
That's up to 2800 families who have had their lives ruined for Putin's vanity.
Over many years in Vietnam, they lost ~60,000.
If Russia's lost anything near 2,800 in less than two days, then that's terrible.
I would caution using figures provided from one side, though.5 -
BBC reporting 1000 Russian dead today.JosiasJessop said:
To put it into context, in the second Iraq war the US lost about 4,500 people killed, from combat and other causes. In Afghanistan, they lost about 2,300. Those were in wars that lasted over a decade in the first case, and two decades in the second.MaxPB said:
Yeah even at 10% of those numbers that's more that Putin expected to lose over the whole conflict. If that's even close to correct the pressure at home will start building as husbands, brothers, sons and fathers start coming home in body bags.CarlottaVance said:Even if this is only half a quarter right, this is no walk in the park:
Russia has lost 2,800 troops, 80 tanks, 516 armored vehicles, 10 airplanes, and 7 helicopters in its invasion of Ukraine: [Ukrainian] deputy defense minister.
Numbers as of 3pm Ukraine time.
https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1497214326213652480
That's up to 2800 families who have had their lives ruined for Putin's vanity.
Over many years in Vietnam, they lost ~60,000.
If Russia's lost anything near 2,800 in less than two days, then that's terrible.
I would caution using figures provided from one side, though.
And 35k body bags prepared.1 -
It's not going as expected for them so far, I think.williamglenn said:Idrees Ali
@idreesali114
U.S. defense official says Russian advance towards Kyiv going slower than Russia anticipated and advance towards Kharkiv still contested.
U.S. has indications that amphibious assault underway west of Mariupol, official says.
U.S. official says Russia has not taken any population centers and they do not have air superiority over country. Russia has so far launched more 200 missiles against Ukrainian targets, official says.
U.S assesses Russia has committed third of forces around Ukraine to offensive, official says .
https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/14972334169490513930 -
Whilst Russia does outmatch Ukraine, it doesn't to the degree of anything like USA/Vietnam or Afghanistan. So I'd expect the casualties to be on a much larger scale.JosiasJessop said:
To put it into context, in the second Iraq war the US lost about 4,500 people killed, from combat and other causes. In Afghanistan, they lost about 2,300. Those were in wars that lasted over a decade in the first case, and two decades in the second.MaxPB said:
Yeah even at 10% of those numbers that's more that Putin expected to lose over the whole conflict. If that's even close to correct the pressure at home will start building as husbands, brothers, sons and fathers start coming home in body bags.CarlottaVance said:Even if this is only half a quarter right, this is no walk in the park:
Russia has lost 2,800 troops, 80 tanks, 516 armored vehicles, 10 airplanes, and 7 helicopters in its invasion of Ukraine: [Ukrainian] deputy defense minister.
Numbers as of 3pm Ukraine time.
https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1497214326213652480
That's up to 2800 families who have had their lives ruined for Putin's vanity.
Over many years in Vietnam, they lost ~60,000.
If Russia's lost anything near 2,800 in less than two days, then that's terrible.
I would caution using figures provided from one side, though.0 -
If they've lost 60,000 soldiers into the field and lost 5% of them in 36 hours, I don't think we'd be talking about Russian advances. Or even, Russians losing momentum. We would be talking about the Ukrainian advance on Minsk.JosiasJessop said:
To put it into context, in the second Iraq war the US lost about 4,500 people killed, from combat and other causes. In Afghanistan, they lost about 2,300. Those were in wars that lasted over a decade in the first case, and two decades in the second.MaxPB said:
Yeah even at 10% of those numbers that's more that Putin expected to lose over the whole conflict. If that's even close to correct the pressure at home will start building as husbands, brothers, sons and fathers start coming home in body bags.CarlottaVance said:Even if this is only half a quarter right, this is no walk in the park:
Russia has lost 2,800 troops, 80 tanks, 516 armored vehicles, 10 airplanes, and 7 helicopters in its invasion of Ukraine: [Ukrainian] deputy defense minister.
Numbers as of 3pm Ukraine time.
https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1497214326213652480
That's up to 2800 families who have had their lives ruined for Putin's vanity.
Over many years in Vietnam, they lost ~60,000.
If Russia's lost anything near 2,800 in less than two days, then that's terrible.
I would caution using figures provided from one side, though.
600 would be a plausible figure on what's being reported. Anything more and the Russian tactics must either have involved mass suicides or they've been shooting at more than one ship on their own side.
Unless, of course, the 2,800 includes wounded. That would be plausible.0 -
In terms of historical parallels, given the states under threat and being threatened, it is easy to draw parallels with the conduct of the Soviet Union in 1939/40 towards what was then Poland (i.e. including part of Ukraine now), the Baltic States and Finland.FrancisUrquhart said:Squad of Chechen special forces ‘hunters’ is unleashed in Ukraine to detain - or kill - Kyiv officials
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10551327/Chechen-special-forces-hunters-unleashed-Ukraine-detain-kill-Kyiv-officials.html
However, the more apt parallel seems to me to be the comparison of Putin's conduct with Hitler's policy of aggressive expansion over the period 1937-39 in the face of Western appeasement, initially justified on the basis of reclaiming German speaking territories. We've now got to the equivalent stage of full scale invasion of Poland, with a Western response that still amounts to less than the Phoney War.
Even then it's always risky making parallels with Hitler because of the risk of being seen to play down the full scale genocide involved especially later into the 1940s. But if Putin is now unleashing the death squads.....0 -
Yeah I'd absolutely do it. The City gives the UK government a lot of power, we need to use it. I'd also put a ban on dollar clearing in London involving any Russian counterparties and start freezing assets of any Putin associated oligarch then sell those assets to pay for rebuilding Ukraine when this is over.Cicero said:
Put it on the list. This is a war, the sanctions should be total.MaxPB said:Stopping russian government bond sales in London and NY would be interesting. Investors want to buy them in London or NY because of legal protections and the ability of the courts to pass and enforce judgements against state actors. It could genuinely cripple the Russian state because no sensible investors would buy Russian government bonds sold under Russian or even EU law.
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Truly a courageous individual.CarlottaVance said:BREAKING: In a video conference call last night Ukraine President Zelensky told EU leaders: "This might be the last time you see me alive", two sources briefed on the call told me
https://twitter.com/barakravid/status/1497214423756197889?s=217 -
It's not that bonds are sold in the UK so much as that the courts in England will hear cases regardless of place of sale. You can impose political restrictions on court access but it is the kind of clever trick that works once and not again.MaxPB said:Stopping russian government bond sales in London and NY would be interesting. Investors want to buy them in London or NY because of legal protections and the ability of the courts to pass and enforce judgements against state actors. It could genuinely cripple the Russian state because no sensible investors would buy Russian government bonds sold under Russian or even EU law.
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I’ve been brooding about this too. The medium term for our continent looks quite dodgy.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm feeling rather pessimistic at the moment.
The further invasion of Ukraine feels like a Sudetenland 1938 moment.
Putin installs a puppet regime in Ukraine and NATO responds with some ‘this far and no further’ activity, tooling up on the border between the West and a now nakedly aggressive Russia. This precarious stand-off becomes the new normal, a war with the potential for mass ruination or much of Eastern Europe sliding back into tyranny only a miscalculation or a failed nerve away.
Thoughts turn to America and we find that the betting favourite for next President is Donald J Trump. Seems ridiculous, and I think not myself, but the odds are short and there’s a reason for that. And if it isn’t him it’s likely to be someone who has proved themselves sufficiently like him to capture the GOP nomination. What price the US commitment to hold the line in Europe then? What happens if it isn’t there? The EU isn’t strong on foreign policy and defence. It's miles off being that sort of outfit. There’s us, of course, but we’re flapping around on our own and pretending it’s 1953.
So, no, it’s not looking good. I remember one time drinking with a mate in the 90s and we were sardonic-lamenting that ‘current affairs’ were so flat and it seemed like nothing much had happened since the Miners Strike. A return of that now would be most welcome.3 -
Maybe a 1000 of them simply deserted?ydoethur said:
If they've lost 60,000 soldiers into the field and lost 5% of them in 36 hours, I don't think we'd be talking about Russian advances. Or even, Russians losing momentum. We would be talking about the Ukrainian advance on Minsk.JosiasJessop said:
To put it into context, in the second Iraq war the US lost about 4,500 people killed, from combat and other causes. In Afghanistan, they lost about 2,300. Those were in wars that lasted over a decade in the first case, and two decades in the second.MaxPB said:
Yeah even at 10% of those numbers that's more that Putin expected to lose over the whole conflict. If that's even close to correct the pressure at home will start building as husbands, brothers, sons and fathers start coming home in body bags.CarlottaVance said:Even if this is only half a quarter right, this is no walk in the park:
Russia has lost 2,800 troops, 80 tanks, 516 armored vehicles, 10 airplanes, and 7 helicopters in its invasion of Ukraine: [Ukrainian] deputy defense minister.
Numbers as of 3pm Ukraine time.
https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1497214326213652480
That's up to 2800 families who have had their lives ruined for Putin's vanity.
Over many years in Vietnam, they lost ~60,000.
If Russia's lost anything near 2,800 in less than two days, then that's terrible.
I would caution using figures provided from one side, though.
600 would be a plausible figure on what's being reported. Anything more and the Russian tactics must either have involved mass suicides or they've been shooting at more than one ship on their own side.
Unless, of course, the 2,800 includes wounded. That would be plausible.
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For comparison. 54985 Americans died in car crashes in 1972 alone.JosiasJessop said:
To put it into context, in the second Iraq war the US lost about 4,500 people killed, from combat and other causes. In Afghanistan, they lost about 2,300. Those were in wars that lasted over a decade in the first case, and two decades in the second.MaxPB said:
Yeah even at 10% of those numbers that's more that Putin expected to lose over the whole conflict. If that's even close to correct the pressure at home will start building as husbands, brothers, sons and fathers start coming home in body bags.CarlottaVance said:Even if this is only half a quarter right, this is no walk in the park:
Russia has lost 2,800 troops, 80 tanks, 516 armored vehicles, 10 airplanes, and 7 helicopters in its invasion of Ukraine: [Ukrainian] deputy defense minister.
Numbers as of 3pm Ukraine time.
https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1497214326213652480
That's up to 2800 families who have had their lives ruined for Putin's vanity.
Over many years in Vietnam, they lost ~60,000.
If Russia's lost anything near 2,800 in less than two days, then that's terrible.
I would caution using figures provided from one side, though.0 -
Russia kicked out of this year’s Eurovision.2
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"Vladir Putin appoved this sacrifice". I imagine that'll be a big theme for the gravestone manufacurers. Putin=dead is my theme.
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what are RT viewing figures anyway, is it wise and sensible to ban it? I briefly counted as a viewer yesterday as I went looking for it and see what it was like, but although briefly a viewing figure I was laughing at how instantly twisted they were reporting everything, even down to majestic pictures of politicians versus joke ones with naff expressions. So even with viewing figures are they listening or laughing?CarlottaVance said:
Because OFCOM are still investigating.Mexicanpete said:
Point of order.CarlottaVance said:
Any messages home from conscripts are unlikely to conform to the official version.NorthofStoke said:
From some of the reputable news reports it appears he hasn't prepared Russian public opinion for this. I'm beginning to think that he genuinely believed there was a lot of pro-invasion support in Ukraine itself. If the Ukrainians have scattered lots of small units with modern anti-tank weapons and they have the morale to fight then Russian casualties will be large.williamglenn said:I think Putin's domestic position will come under increasing pressure and he'll end up with the perfect storm of street protests coinciding with elite discontent. I just hope Zelensky lives to see it.
Why are RT still broadcasting on UK Freeview?
There’s an argument, Putin will love us to ban it, he will instantly respond by banning the BBC in Russia that actually cuts through Putin’s propaganda to millions. What position do you take on that?
I think Boris won’t. I think he is not hasty and reactionary on these things as Starmer.1 -
CNBC is reporting that China are stating Putin is willing to conduct high level talks with Ukraine.1
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A more fitting punishment would have been to keep them in it, and get everyone else to put forward really shitty entries that still beat them all.StuartDickson said:Russia kicked out of this year’s Eurovision.
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Now that is some news.Taz said:CNBC is reporting that China are stating Putin is willing to conduct high level talks with Ukraine.
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If you look at the tweets over the day, I would say they have lost 2,800 from their fighting strength, 600 conceivably dead.rottenborough said:
Maybe a 1000 of them simply deserted?ydoethur said:
If they've lost 60,000 soldiers into the field and lost 5% of them in 36 hours, I don't think we'd be talking about Russian advances. Or even, Russians losing momentum. We would be talking about the Ukrainian advance on Minsk.JosiasJessop said:
To put it into context, in the second Iraq war the US lost about 4,500 people killed, from combat and other causes. In Afghanistan, they lost about 2,300. Those were in wars that lasted over a decade in the first case, and two decades in the second.MaxPB said:
Yeah even at 10% of those numbers that's more that Putin expected to lose over the whole conflict. If that's even close to correct the pressure at home will start building as husbands, brothers, sons and fathers start coming home in body bags.CarlottaVance said:Even if this is only half a quarter right, this is no walk in the park:
Russia has lost 2,800 troops, 80 tanks, 516 armored vehicles, 10 airplanes, and 7 helicopters in its invasion of Ukraine: [Ukrainian] deputy defense minister.
Numbers as of 3pm Ukraine time.
https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1497214326213652480
That's up to 2800 families who have had their lives ruined for Putin's vanity.
Over many years in Vietnam, they lost ~60,000.
If Russia's lost anything near 2,800 in less than two days, then that's terrible.
I would caution using figures provided from one side, though.
600 would be a plausible figure on what's being reported. Anything more and the Russian tactics must either have involved mass suicides or they've been shooting at more than one ship on their own side.
Unless, of course, the 2,800 includes wounded. That would be plausible.0 -
I'd also make the big step of banning Euro clearing involving Russian companies/banks. It might be unwise given the environment of Brexit and the contentiousness of having London as the main centre for Euro clearing but it is a unilateral action we can take and pressure the EU into also banning.MaxPB said:
Yeah I'd absolutely do it. The City gives the UK government a lot of power, we need to use it. I'd also put a ban on dollar clearing in London involving any Russian counterparties and start freezing assets of any Putin associated oligarch then sell those assets to pay for rebuilding Ukraine when this is over.Cicero said:
Put it on the list. This is a war, the sanctions should be total.MaxPB said:Stopping russian government bond sales in London and NY would be interesting. Investors want to buy them in London or NY because of legal protections and the ability of the courts to pass and enforce judgements against state actors. It could genuinely cripple the Russian state because no sensible investors would buy Russian government bonds sold under Russian or even EU law.
We need to starve Russia of cash.1 -
That's a lot more troops but less aircraft, in the last 24 hours, compared to opening day. Which would be consistent with the air defence being significantly degraded, but more troops coming in to contact with the enemy.CarlottaVance said:Even if this is only half a quarter right, this is no walk in the park:
Russia has lost 2,800 troops, 80 tanks, 516 armored vehicles, 10 airplanes, and 7 helicopters in its invasion of Ukraine: [Ukrainian] deputy defense minister.
Numbers as of 3pm Ukraine time.
https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1497214326213652480
and also consistent with Russian leadership realising they are not doing as well as anticipated and started to panic, which is what Putin calling his opponents drug addicts looked like.
That seed theses are totally un-curatable, so who knowns.0 -
Why has it not happened? Too expensive for London and NY? Hmmm… Swift…MaxPB said:Stopping russian government bond sales in London and NY would be interesting. Investors want to buy them in London or NY because of legal protections and the ability of the courts to pass and enforce judgements against state actors. It could genuinely cripple the Russian state because no sensible investors would buy Russian government bonds sold under Russian or even EU law.
Germans = bad
London = good1 -
Breaking: the ultimate sanction has been unleashed!
Russia has been kicked out of the Eurovision Song Contest1 -
Nah. That’s what we like to do to England.ydoethur said:
A more fitting punishment would have been to keep them in it, and get everyone else to put forward really shitty entries that still beat them all.StuartDickson said:Russia kicked out of this year’s Eurovision.
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Conditions for peace....ydoethur said:
A more fitting punishment would have been to keep them in it, and get everyone else to put forward really shitty entries that still beat them all.StuartDickson said:Russia kicked out of this year’s Eurovision.
1) Putin to sing the Russia entry, for the Eurovision, wearing a dress.5 -
That is exactly my point. Pertinax pissed off the praetorian guard and theft was his downfall. Julianus' problem was that Septimius was a seriously good general.ydoethur said:
That worked so well for Pertinax and Didius Julianus...IshmaelZ said:
The type of error to be expected from a modern historian. The true rule is that if the Praetorian Guard is on side and paid up to date, the rest of the army can go screw itself.ydoethur said:
Bloody fool thing to do if so. What's the first rule when facing a coup? Don't Piss Off The Army.Leon said:
I wonder if there is a coup being plotted - he is 69 - and this is a desperate distraction he has createdOmnium said:
No maybe about it.RandallFlagg said:
Maybe Putin really has gone completely mental.Gardenwalker said:Russia has warned Finland, Sweden of military consequences if they seek to join NATO.
https://twitter.com/jasongroves1/status/1497222749252632583?s=21
Wallace's "tonto" diagnosis is surprsingly bang on the money. I expect things to get very very messy in the Kremlin, but regime change is coming, and if the new regime wants to ingratiate itself with the army it will withdraw.0 -
How about a kilt? And bagpipe accompaniment.Malmesbury said:
Conditions for peace....ydoethur said:
A more fitting punishment would have been to keep them in it, and get everyone else to put forward really shitty entries that still beat them all.StuartDickson said:Russia kicked out of this year’s Eurovision.
1) Putin to sing the Russia entry, for the Eurovision, wearing a dress.0 -
Note also that the mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, has picked up a gun and will fight to defend his capital, as have many of the Ukraine cabinet.Taz said:
Truly a courageous individual.CarlottaVance said:BREAKING: In a video conference call last night Ukraine President Zelensky told EU leaders: "This might be the last time you see me alive", two sources briefed on the call told me
https://twitter.com/barakravid/status/1497214423756197889?s=21
They truly value their democracy.4 -
I think it needs to be coordinated with the US and probably needs quite a lot of legal checking.StuartDickson said:
Why has it not happened? Too expensive for London and NY? Hmmm… Swift…MaxPB said:Stopping russian government bond sales in London and NY would be interesting. Investors want to buy them in London or NY because of legal protections and the ability of the courts to pass and enforce judgements against state actors. It could genuinely cripple the Russian state because no sensible investors would buy Russian government bonds sold under Russian or even EU law.
Germans = bad
London = good
The City has been briefed that we're going to get caught up in this, probably quite significantly. It's just awaiting the package from the government now and agreeing a common stance with the US.0 -
Nika Melkozerova
@NikaMelkozerova
·
1h
In 2 days Ukrainians destroyed:
80 Russian tanks;
516 different Russian armored vehicles;
7 helicopters;
10 fighter jets;
2800 Russian soldiers;
"Welcome to hell!" Ukraine Army Commander in Chief Zaluzhny wrote.
https://twitter.com/NikaMelkozerova/status/14972248268675645631 -
I suddenly imagined him as Dana International, the bearded lady entrant from Israel a few years ago, for a moment there.Malmesbury said:
Conditions for peace....ydoethur said:
A more fitting punishment would have been to keep them in it, and get everyone else to put forward really shitty entries that still beat them all.StuartDickson said:Russia kicked out of this year’s Eurovision.
1) Putin to sing the Russia entry, for the Eurovision, wearing a dress.1 -
Why do you like him?StuartDickson said:
How about a kilt? And bagpipe accompaniment.Malmesbury said:
Conditions for peace....ydoethur said:
A more fitting punishment would have been to keep them in it, and get everyone else to put forward really shitty entries that still beat them all.StuartDickson said:Russia kicked out of this year’s Eurovision.
1) Putin to sing the Russia entry, for the Eurovision, wearing a dress.1 -
More that banks are already sanctioned, which does most of the work in afflicting the Russian economy without interfering in the long-run advantages thsy lead to dollar-denominated trade, UK-dominant capital markets, etc.StuartDickson said:
Why has it not happened? Too expensive for London and NY? Hmmm… Swift…MaxPB said:Stopping russian government bond sales in London and NY would be interesting. Investors want to buy them in London or NY because of legal protections and the ability of the courts to pass and enforce judgements against state actors. It could genuinely cripple the Russian state because no sensible investors would buy Russian government bonds sold under Russian or even EU law.
Germans = bad
London = good0 -
As I put it on the PT really - I disagree with Germany's reticence in this matter but I don't feel right condemning them for it, or ascribing negative national characteristics to it. I think it largely comes from something that I find understandable and not malign.BlancheLivermore said:
I think it's a principled act by a cold and soulless administration with really shitty principles.kinabalu said:
What do you think? Do you think it's a malicious act by a cold and soulless nation?BlancheLivermore said:
Was this a 'mistake'?
"Germany reportedly refused to allow Estonia to send its German-made weapons to Ukraine. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania pledged support to Kyiv against possible Russian aggression."
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-blocks-estonian-arms-exports-to-ukraine-report/a-60520988
Your turn. What do you think of it?0 -
Let's not get silly.StuartDickson said:
How about a kilt? And bagpipe accompaniment.Malmesbury said:
Conditions for peace....ydoethur said:
A more fitting punishment would have been to keep them in it, and get everyone else to put forward really shitty entries that still beat them all.StuartDickson said:Russia kicked out of this year’s Eurovision.
1) Putin to sing the Russia entry, for the Eurovision, wearing a dress.
Not that he has anything to show if the wind catches the kilt, of course.0 -
At least the the UK wouldn't have to change its approach.ydoethur said:
A more fitting punishment would have been to keep them in it, and get everyone else to put forward really shitty entries that still beat them all.StuartDickson said:Russia kicked out of this year’s Eurovision.
Still a fair chance of nil point..0 -
Putin has put in a call to his mate in China following unexpected losses by his army in first 48 hours?WhisperingOracle said:
Now that is some news.Taz said:CNBC is reporting that China are stating Putin is willing to conduct high level talks with Ukraine.
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Someone said a story many moons ago that during the Cold War, the west would send up fighters to intercept their bombers, and it became common for messages to be written on sheets and held up to the cockpit. It became a bit of a game between bomber crew and interceptors.
Being paranoid idiots, the Russians did not like this, so they sent KGB officers up to ensure no secrets were being given away.
The Bear bomber is basically a cigar tube with a gunner at the rear and the cockpit at the front. Between the two is a very narrow crawlspace. So our interceptors would go to the front of the plane, then to the rear, and the KGB officer would have to crawl between the two. The fighters would then go to the front, and the officer would have to crawl all the way to the front. Repeat until the KGB officer is thoroughly pi**ed off.
The story says that once Vladamir Putin was one of the officers, and he has had a healthy dislike of the west ever since...
No idea if it's true, or even if the Bear has a crawlspace. and it sounds a bit Tom Clancy to me, but it'd be fun if true.0 -
Came up on the CNBC YouTube feed.WhisperingOracle said:
Now that is some news.Taz said:CNBC is reporting that China are stating Putin is willing to conduct high level talks with Ukraine.
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May I refer you to the reply of the defenders of Snake Island?Gardenwalker said:Russia has warned Finland, Sweden of military consequences if they seek to join NATO.
https://twitter.com/jasongroves1/status/1497222749252632583?s=211 -
Obviously the Ukrainian invasion wouldn't have happened with a strongman in the White House. A tyrant like Putin against Joe Biden well what a fuck up. For many on then Left that opposed Trump this is life coming at you fast.0
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Why does the phrase with friends like these come to mind?EPG said:
I would see the presence of German intelligence in Kiev as good news for Ukraine, all in all. It suggests some kind of assistance.williamglenn said:The head of the German Intelligence Agency had to be evacuated from Ukraine. Apparently he didn't believe an invasion would happen...
https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise/praesident-des-bundesnachrichtendienstes-wurde-aus-hoechster-not-aus-der-ukraine-gerettet_id_59192174.html0 -
Isn't this just the thing that was reported earlier, we will talk to Ukraine, but only if they come to Belarus....I wouldn't go near the place, everything could easily be poisoned.Taz said:CNBC is reporting that China are stating Putin is willing to conduct high level talks with Ukraine.
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Putin has already invaded non NATO Ukraine as it wanted to join NATO and this afternoon threatened non NATO Finland and Sweden.Mexicanpete said:
What are you on about?HYUFD said:
Suggests if Scotland ever got independence if an indyref2 was allowed by the UK government and a Yes vote which Westminster implemented, then Putin would also threaten Scotland if it tried to join NATO.dixiedean said:
Sweden?Gardenwalker said:Russia has warned Finland, Sweden of military consequences if they seek to join NATO.
https://twitter.com/jasongroves1/status/1497222749252632583?s=21
He truly has lost it.
Salmond as head of a puppet regime even
It is therefore not realistic for any non NATO European nation eg the Republic of Ireland, Finland, Sweden, Georgia, Austria, Switzerland or future non NATO European nation to consider applying for NATO membership while Putin is around without risking Russian invasion1 -
Where are you drawing the line on when they happened though, between war and peace keeping/supporting new government? With Iraq that was the invasion to remove Madass, and then a line drawn on that mission achieved into a period where many others died. 😕JosiasJessop said:
To put it into context, in the second Iraq war the US lost about 4,500 people killed, from combat and other causes. In Afghanistan, they lost about 2,300. Those were in wars that lasted over a decade in the first case, and two decades in the second.MaxPB said:
Yeah even at 10% of those numbers that's more that Putin expected to lose over the whole conflict. If that's even close to correct the pressure at home will start building as husbands, brothers, sons and fathers start coming home in body bags.CarlottaVance said:Even if this is only half a quarter right, this is no walk in the park:
Russia has lost 2,800 troops, 80 tanks, 516 armored vehicles, 10 airplanes, and 7 helicopters in its invasion of Ukraine: [Ukrainian] deputy defense minister.
Numbers as of 3pm Ukraine time.
https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1497214326213652480
That's up to 2800 families who have had their lives ruined for Putin's vanity.
Over many years in Vietnam, they lost ~60,000.
If Russia's lost anything near 2,800 in less than two days, then that's terrible.
I would caution using figures provided from one side, though.0 -
The families will notice their sons not returning, I think.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sadly they are cremating their loses and not sending body bags homeMaxPB said:
Yeah even at 10% of those numbers that's more that Putin expected to lose over the whole conflict. If that's even close to correct the pressure at home will start building as husbands, brothers, sons and fathers start coming home in body bags.CarlottaVance said:Even if this is only half a quarter right, this is no walk in the park:
Russia has lost 2,800 troops, 80 tanks, 516 armored vehicles, 10 airplanes, and 7 helicopters in its invasion of Ukraine: [Ukrainian] deputy defense minister.
Numbers as of 3pm Ukraine time.
https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1497214326213652480
That's up to 2800 families who have had their lives ruined for Putin's vanity.
Though since Putin cares not a jot for their feelings, why will their misery matter.1 -
Maybe because until relatively recently they haven’t had one ?Nigelb said:
Note also that the mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, has picked up a gun and will fight to defend his capital, as have many of the Ukraine cabinet.Taz said:
Truly a courageous individual.CarlottaVance said:BREAKING: In a video conference call last night Ukraine President Zelensky told EU leaders: "This might be the last time you see me alive", two sources briefed on the call told me
https://twitter.com/barakravid/status/1497214423756197889?s=21
They truly value their democracy.0 -
I believe I heard the whole of Parliament is in Kyiv to be ready to meet at short notice.Nigelb said:
Note also that the mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, has picked up a gun and will fight to defend his capital, as have many of the Ukraine cabinet.Taz said:
Truly a courageous individual.CarlottaVance said:BREAKING: In a video conference call last night Ukraine President Zelensky told EU leaders: "This might be the last time you see me alive", two sources briefed on the call told me
https://twitter.com/barakravid/status/1497214423756197889?s=21
They truly value their democracy.
All armed.0 -
Nah, just more propaganda like when he was trying to convince everyone that he was pulling back. That time he managed to convince a few simpletons in the EU. This time I doubt anyone will believe it.rottenborough said:
Putin has put in a call to his mate in China following unexpected losses by his army in first 48 hours?WhisperingOracle said:
Now that is some news.Taz said:CNBC is reporting that China are stating Putin is willing to conduct high level talks with Ukraine.
1 -
Well that's me convinced. We should invade Ireland.StuartDickson said:Russia kicked out of this year’s Eurovision.
3 -
yeah nothing much happened in the 90s at all after the first gulf war...then after september 11 and the iraq war not much happened till the 2008 financial crisis. Since then every year seems worse than the lastkinabalu said:
I’ve been brooding about this too. The medium term for our continent looks quite dodgy.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm feeling rather pessimistic at the moment.
The further invasion of Ukraine feels like a Sudetenland 1938 moment.
Putin installs a puppet regime in Ukraine and NATO responds with some ‘this far and no further’ activity, tooling up on the border between the West and a now nakedly aggressive Russia. This precarious stand-off becomes the new normal, a war with the potential for mass ruination or much of Eastern Europe sliding back into tyranny only a miscalculation or a failed nerve away.
Thoughts turn to America and we find that the betting favourite for next President is Donald J Trump. Seems ridiculous, and I think not myself, but the odds are short and there’s a reason for that. And if it isn’t him it’s likely to be someone who has proved themselves sufficiently like him to capture the GOP nomination. What price the US commitment to hold the line in Europe then? What happens if it isn’t there? The EU isn’t strong on foreign policy and defence. It's miles off being that sort of outfit. There’s us, of course, but we’re flapping around on our own and pretending it’s 1953.
So, no, it’s not looking good. I remember one time drinking with a mate in the 90s and we were sardonic-lamenting that ‘current affairs’ were so flat and it seemed like nothing much had happened since the Miners Strike. A return of that now would be most welcome.1 -
Because the British right-wing is scratching its anti-German itch this week? Germany cancelled Nord Stream 2 while the UK won't cancel Hilary Term at Eton. Course, the UK sent more material assistance to Ukraine, but instead of agreeing to unite some people want to pretend to be better in every way.DavidL said:
Why does the phrase with friends like these come to mind?EPG said:
I would see the presence of German intelligence in Kiev as good news for Ukraine, all in all. It suggests some kind of assistance.williamglenn said:The head of the German Intelligence Agency had to be evacuated from Ukraine. Apparently he didn't believe an invasion would happen...
https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise/praesident-des-bundesnachrichtendienstes-wurde-aus-hoechster-not-aus-der-ukraine-gerettet_id_59192174.html1 -
Ukrainians are throwing glass bottles full of petrol at Russian tanks, but you understand why the Germans are too nobly principled to help the poor fuckers out?kinabalu said:
As I put it on the PT really - I disagree with Germany's reticence in this matter but I don't feel right condemning them for it, or ascribing negative national characteristics to it. I think it largely comes from something that I find understandable and not malign.BlancheLivermore said:
I think it's a principled act by a cold and soulless administration with really shitty principles.kinabalu said:
What do you think? Do you think it's a malicious act by a cold and soulless nation?BlancheLivermore said:
Was this a 'mistake'?
"Germany reportedly refused to allow Estonia to send its German-made weapons to Ukraine. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania pledged support to Kyiv against possible Russian aggression."
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-blocks-estonian-arms-exports-to-ukraine-report/a-60520988
Your turn. What do you think of it?
I don't understand.1 -
Putin's United Russia's main opponent is the Communist Party, Russian elections are a bit like alien v predator!MoonRabbit said:
He’s not. But so many left wing and right wing minds are hot wired and living in the past, such as the 12 Labour politicians and their letter so predictably supported Putin, they can’t tell the difference from communists or Putin in the Kremlin.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Putin's not a leftie either!MoonRabbit said:
LOL 😂 it’s quite clear from 2500 posts I’m not a Putinist, nor a leftie!JosiasJessop said:
Ah, two cheeks of the same Putinist arse.Heathener said:
I agree completely.MoonRabbit said:
This Ukraine Crisis could, likely will, quickly subside into nothing from here now, with ceasefire, Ukraine surrender, talks in Moscow between the governments.IshmaelZ said:
I think we will be fine. this is more a "in a fit of pique he decided to napalm Cheltenham" moment. I would be betting on Putin out of office by y/e if I were not so heavily invested in BJ being out of office, errm, worryingly soonTheScreamingEagles said:I'm feeling rather pessimistic at the moment.
The further invasion of Ukraine feels like a Sudetenland 1938 moment.
The reckoning on Boris is not cancelled till summer, it’s coming as soon as this thing dies down as the lazy and poor way he has handled the crisis only adds to the reasons to replace him.
Russia will have overrun Ukraine by the end of the weekend and I'm afraid it will subside as news until the next of Putin's atrocities threatens to wake us up.
We will back to domestic politics very soon.
We may see this is appalling (it is) but MoonRabbit is right.
In his last election he campaigned on Conservative values, his support for Russian church etc. sort of things the Marxists had no time for and worse by their actions.
Russians don't really do liberalism except for a handful of highly educated and very rich people living in the big cities0 -
With Merkel, Draghi was one of the grand figures of the old western order, an establishment giant who apparently represented stability, order, anti-populism etc. And yet he, like Merkel, risk becoming a symbol of all that was wrong with that age of short-termism and selfishness.
https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1497247219279437843
I look at Draghi and see everything that is wrong with the West, look at Zelensky and see everything that is right
https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/14972348330341212162 -
It didn’t diminish British nationalism.MoonRabbit said:
My theory is they are all very poor, and they would love to be wealthier and have nice things, and that’s something they share across that disputed border where twelve thousand people have been killed in last 7 years.rottenborough said:What I can't work out, unless the basic theory that Vlad has gone mad or his medication has sent him mad, is why he wants Ukraine as a locked in part of Russia?
You are bringing millions of people who have had a taste of democracy into the 'family' of Russia fed, thousands of whom will no doubt join up with and covertly work with pro-democracy forces in Russia itself.
He's helping seed the inevitable revolution that brings his lot down.
Maybe he really does know he has run out of time?
So if those on the Uranian side join EU and get wealthier from it, it appears to a Greater Russian Nationalist sat in the Kremlin just like you said “seed the inevitable revolution that brings” what he prefers down.
Does being in EU diminish Nationalism over time?1 -
Seems unlikely. A TU95 Hull can carry 20 passengers in Tu-116 form, which suggests a bit more than a crawl way behind the cockpit.JosiasJessop said:Someone said a story many moons ago that during the Cold War, the west would send up fighters to intercept their bombers, and it became common for messages to be written on sheets and held up to the cockpit. It became a bit of a game between bomber crew and interceptors.
Being paranoid idiots, the Russians did not like this, so they sent KGB officers up to ensure no secrets were being given away.
The Bear bomber is basically a cigar tube with a gunner at the rear and the cockpit at the front. Between the two is a very narrow crawlspace. So our interceptors would go to the front of the plane, then to the rear, and the KGB officer would have to crawl between the two. The fighters would then go to the front, and the officer would have to crawl all the way to the front. Repeat until the KGB officer is thoroughly pi**ed off.
The story says that once Vladamir Putin was one of the officers, and he has had a healthy dislike of the west ever since...
No idea if it's true, or even if the Bear has a crawlspace. and it sounds a bit Tom Clancy to me, but it'd be fun if true.0 -
They shouldn’t have bothered.BlancheLivermore said:
He had to be rescued by the Ukrainian army who are banned from using his country's weapons in this war.williamglenn said:The head of the German Intelligence Agency had to be evacuated from Ukraine. Apparently he didn't believe an invasion would happen...
https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise/praesident-des-bundesnachrichtendienstes-wurde-aus-hoechster-not-aus-der-ukraine-gerettet_id_59192174.html0 -
No, just a misunderstanding. He's hoping they will bring their drugs along so they can talk while high, on the level.MaxPB said:
Nah, just more propaganda like when he was trying to convince everyone that he was pulling back. That time he managed to convince a few simpletons in the EU. This time I doubt anyone will believe it.rottenborough said:
Putin has put in a call to his mate in China following unexpected losses by his army in first 48 hours?WhisperingOracle said:
Now that is some news.Taz said:CNBC is reporting that China are stating Putin is willing to conduct high level talks with Ukraine.
0 -
As he's a former world heavyweight boxing champion, it seems rather a shame they can't decide this by single combat between him and Putin.Nigelb said:
Note also that the mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, has picked up a gun and will fight to defend his capital, as have many of the Ukraine cabinet.Taz said:
Truly a courageous individual.CarlottaVance said:BREAKING: In a video conference call last night Ukraine President Zelensky told EU leaders: "This might be the last time you see me alive", two sources briefed on the call told me
https://twitter.com/barakravid/status/1497214423756197889?s=21
They truly value their democracy.0 -
What is the point of talking with a liar?FrancisUrquhart said:
Isn't this just the thing that was reported earlier, we will talk to Ukraine, but only if they come to Belarus....I wouldn't go near the place, everything could easily be poisoned.Taz said:CNBC is reporting that China are stating Putin is willing to conduct high level talks with Ukraine.
(No Boris allusions intended, although if the cap fits...)0 -
Isn’t German “intelligence” on Ukraine an oxymoron?EPG said:
I would see the presence of German intelligence in Kiev as good news for Ukraine, all in all. It suggests some kind of assistance.williamglenn said:The head of the German Intelligence Agency had to be evacuated from Ukraine. Apparently he didn't believe an invasion would happen...
https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise/praesident-des-bundesnachrichtendienstes-wurde-aus-hoechster-not-aus-der-ukraine-gerettet_id_59192174.html
The helmets have been despatched - but will have to be collected by Ukraine over the border so no Germans are put in harms way.
1 -
Russian Christianity is also quite distinctive.Nigelb said:
Hard to think of many less Christian or decadent than Putin.PJohnson said:the reason some right wingers support Putin by the way is they see him as potentially defending Christian values against a woke decadent west...they may be wrong but thats their reasoning
It is neither Roman Catholic nor Protestant, neither is it Greek Orthodox after it ended communion with the Ecumenical Patriarchate of Constantinople after Patriarch Bartholomew 1 ended Moscow Patriarch Kirill's jurisdiction over Ukraine. Kirill is a close ally of Putin.0 -
The one I remember was me stories by an American helicopter pilot in the Navy.JosiasJessop said:Someone said a story many moons ago that during the Cold War, the west would send up fighters to intercept their bombers, and it became common for messages to be written on sheets and held up to the cockpit. It became a bit of a game between bomber crew and interceptors.
Being paranoid idiots, the Russians did not like this, so they sent KGB officers up to ensure no secrets were being given away.
The Bear bomber is basically a cigar tube with a gunner at the rear and the cockpit at the front. Between the two is a very narrow crawlspace. So our interceptors would go to the front of the plane, then to the rear, and the KGB officer would have to crawl between the two. The fighters would then go to the front, and the officer would have to crawl all the way to the front. Repeat until the KGB officer is thoroughly pi**ed off.
The story says that once Vladamir Putin was one of the officers, and he has had a healthy dislike of the west ever since...
No idea if it's true, or even if the Bear has a crawlspace. and it sounds a bit Tom Clancy to me, but it'd be fun if true.
They used to fly around the Russian ships that would be trailing the battle group. Some ships were cool - the sailors would moon them, or wave. Some ships were run by dicks and would illuminate them with targeting radars.
Since they were an ASW helicopter, they had sonobuoys on board. So they would toss the cans they came in out of the helicopter, looking like they were dropping buoys. The Soviets would send a boat out to pick them up/interfere with them...
For the ships that were cool they would weight the can with magazines and cans of beer. For the ships that pissed them off, the crew would use the can as a toilet first.1 -
Have you seen how his diplomats communicate? Apparently Finland or Sweden joining NATO would be totally unacceptable, but invasion of another nation is totally fine. Christ, earlier one of them was talking about how Ukrainians needed to decide their own future, even as key Russian demands are that Ukraine, the baltics and nordic nations must not, under any circumstances, be free to make choices that Russia does not like.ydoethur said:
He doesn't do self awareness or irony, does he?CarlottaVance said:Someone looks rattled:
Putin describes Ukraine’s government as “a gang of drug addicts” and calls on the country’s forces to surrender
https://twitter.com/evangershkovich/status/1497223417573093378?2 -
Except the bomb load is in the way in the bomber version...ydoethur said:
Seems unlikely. A TU95 Hull can carry 20 passengers in Tu-116 form, which suggests a bit more than a crawl way behind the cockpit.JosiasJessop said:Someone said a story many moons ago that during the Cold War, the west would send up fighters to intercept their bombers, and it became common for messages to be written on sheets and held up to the cockpit. It became a bit of a game between bomber crew and interceptors.
Being paranoid idiots, the Russians did not like this, so they sent KGB officers up to ensure no secrets were being given away.
The Bear bomber is basically a cigar tube with a gunner at the rear and the cockpit at the front. Between the two is a very narrow crawlspace. So our interceptors would go to the front of the plane, then to the rear, and the KGB officer would have to crawl between the two. The fighters would then go to the front, and the officer would have to crawl all the way to the front. Repeat until the KGB officer is thoroughly pi**ed off.
The story says that once Vladamir Putin was one of the officers, and he has had a healthy dislike of the west ever since...
No idea if it's true, or even if the Bear has a crawlspace. and it sounds a bit Tom Clancy to me, but it'd be fun if true.0 -
I don't believe that is accurate at all. The only thing I would concede is that Putin might have thought that Trump was so bat shit crazy he would just launch an all out war. But in fact Trump had made clear all the way through he didn't give a shit about Europe, NATO or anything else overseas unless it impinged on his chances of remaining in office.LordWakefield said:Obviously the Ukrainian invasion wouldn't have happened with a strongman in the White House. A tyrant like Putin against Joe Biden well what a fuck up. For many on then Left that opposed Trump this is life coming at you fast.
2 -
Zelensky is willing to die when he should be doing all he can to maintain the legitimate Ukrainian government, in exile if necessary. I don't think this is wisdom. But I see that for Atlanticists gagging for someone else to fight a continental war, it is praiseworthy.CarlottaVance said:With Merkel, Draghi was one of the grand figures of the old western order, an establishment giant who apparently represented stability, order, anti-populism etc. And yet he, like Merkel, risk becoming a symbol of all that was wrong with that age of short-termism and selfishness.
https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1497247219279437843
I look at Draghi and see everything that is wrong with the West, look at Zelensky and see everything that is right
https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/14972348330341212160 -
On the Russian offer of talks: is this purely designed to try to portray Putin as not being a complete psychopath, to those members of the international community that might still be willing either to give him the benefit of the doubt, or to grasp at any excuse to ease up on sanctions for their own economic interests? Or is it the first sign that he realises he's made a catastrophic strategic error and is trying to manoeuvre Zelenskyy into a position where he might be willing to agree a face-saving (for Putin) compromise?
The one thing that could embolden the Russian generals to try to bring Putin down is a mass slaughter of Russian soldiers, precipitating civil unrest. The UK Defence Secretary estimated Russian deaths at 450 on the opening day; a Ukrainian opposition leader interviewed on the news earlier today suggested the figure was more like 1,000. There are also reports of Ukrainian forces in various parts of the country putting up very stiff resistance and even managing to force the Russians into reverse in some instances, surrender by some Russian units, as well as criticism by some analysts of Russian tactical blunders and the quality of some of Russia's officer corps and conscript units alike.
Even if we assume that the Russian army does eventually prevail and overrun the whole of Ukraine, it lacks the manpower to pin down that entire vast territory and could easily find itself losing hundreds or even a couple of thousand troops every month to partisan action, conducted by a large and extremely pissed off population with access to a flood of weapons. Russia's resources of manpower aren't infinite and professional troops would have to be replaced with enforced conscripts. Regardless, there's nothing to suggest that Putin is going to get the quick victory that he wants and possibly expected.
One more encouraging thing: there's nothing in the prosecution of this war so far that suggests that the Russian armed forces would do very well if they tried to launch a direct assault on NATO, in the Baltic States or elsewhere. This information will obviously have made its way back to the Russian high command, which will hopefully help to further dissuade them from committing suicide in this fashion in future.0 -
They've got two heavyweight champions in their Kyiv defence, his brother Wladimir is also signed up and ready to fight.Chris said:
As he's a former world heavyweight boxing champion, it seems rather a shame they can't decide this by single combat between him and Putin.Nigelb said:
Note also that the mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, has picked up a gun and will fight to defend his capital, as have many of the Ukraine cabinet.Taz said:
Truly a courageous individual.CarlottaVance said:BREAKING: In a video conference call last night Ukraine President Zelensky told EU leaders: "This might be the last time you see me alive", two sources briefed on the call told me
https://twitter.com/barakravid/status/1497214423756197889?s=21
They truly value their democracy.0 -
Eh? Trump would have celebrated fellow 'strongman' genius and done absolutely nothing to block him.LordWakefield said:Obviously the Ukrainian invasion wouldn't have happened with a strongman in the White House. A tyrant like Putin against Joe Biden well what a fuck up. For many on then Left that opposed Trump this is life coming at you fast.
He'd probably be trying to send weapons and ammo to Vlad to help him on his way.
0 -
It looks like though Putin may have joined Zelenskiyin wanting a chat, whilst the other day he wouldn’t pick up the phone. I’m not sure Russia is quite ready to stop and talk yet though, so I’m poo pooing this report.FrancisUrquhart said:
Isn't this just the thing that was reported earlier, we will talk to Ukraine, but only if they come to Belarus....I wouldn't go near the place, everything could easily be poisoned.Taz said:CNBC is reporting that China are stating Putin is willing to conduct high level talks with Ukraine.
Zelenskiy Has said he is happy to talk about Ukraine neutrality going forward? As I said down thread, that makes him useful for Putin, so unlikely to be poisoned!
(Is this left wing Putin loving arse cheeky treason to want these two to chat about Ukraine neutrality soon - or just realistic and humanitarian in easily seeing even worse outcome now?)
0 -
..and in the baragain was only yesterday sucking up to and praising Putin, like the degenerated rat that he is.Richard_Tyndall said:
I don't believe that is accurate at all. The only thing I would concede is that Putin might have thought that Trump was so bat shit crazy he would just launch an all out war. But in fact Trump had made clear all the way through he didn't give a shit about Europe, NATO or anything else overseas unless it impinged on his chances of remaining in office.LordWakefield said:Obviously the Ukrainian invasion wouldn't have happened with a strongman in the White House. A tyrant like Putin against Joe Biden well what a fuck up. For many on then Left that opposed Trump this is life coming at you fast.
1 -
And it is the last in the line of a series of stretches and re-designs of... a B-29.....JosiasJessop said:
Except the bomb load is in the way in the bomber version...ydoethur said:
Seems unlikely. A TU95 Hull can carry 20 passengers in Tu-116 form, which suggests a bit more than a crawl way behind the cockpit.JosiasJessop said:Someone said a story many moons ago that during the Cold War, the west would send up fighters to intercept their bombers, and it became common for messages to be written on sheets and held up to the cockpit. It became a bit of a game between bomber crew and interceptors.
Being paranoid idiots, the Russians did not like this, so they sent KGB officers up to ensure no secrets were being given away.
The Bear bomber is basically a cigar tube with a gunner at the rear and the cockpit at the front. Between the two is a very narrow crawlspace. So our interceptors would go to the front of the plane, then to the rear, and the KGB officer would have to crawl between the two. The fighters would then go to the front, and the officer would have to crawl all the way to the front. Repeat until the KGB officer is thoroughly pi**ed off.
The story says that once Vladamir Putin was one of the officers, and he has had a healthy dislike of the west ever since...
No idea if it's true, or even if the Bear has a crawlspace. and it sounds a bit Tom Clancy to me, but it'd be fun if true.1 -
max seddon
@maxseddon
"The overwhelming majority of Russians are feeling pain, fear, powerlessness and . . . shame. Shame that the leader of the country you live in can doom millions of people with the snap of his finger.”
@NastassiaAstra
on Russia's anti-war movement:
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/14972428420911636530 -
Each side always exaggerates - dividing by 3 is not a bad rule of thumb and would deliver plausible numbers over the course of two days.ydoethur said:
If they've lost 60,000 soldiers into the field and lost 5% of them in 36 hours, I don't think we'd be talking about Russian advances. Or even, Russians losing momentum. We would be talking about the Ukrainian advance on Minsk.JosiasJessop said:
To put it into context, in the second Iraq war the US lost about 4,500 people killed, from combat and other causes. In Afghanistan, they lost about 2,300. Those were in wars that lasted over a decade in the first case, and two decades in the second.MaxPB said:
Yeah even at 10% of those numbers that's more that Putin expected to lose over the whole conflict. If that's even close to correct the pressure at home will start building as husbands, brothers, sons and fathers start coming home in body bags.CarlottaVance said:Even if this is only half a quarter right, this is no walk in the park:
Russia has lost 2,800 troops, 80 tanks, 516 armored vehicles, 10 airplanes, and 7 helicopters in its invasion of Ukraine: [Ukrainian] deputy defense minister.
Numbers as of 3pm Ukraine time.
https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1497214326213652480
That's up to 2800 families who have had their lives ruined for Putin's vanity.
Over many years in Vietnam, they lost ~60,000.
If Russia's lost anything near 2,800 in less than two days, then that's terrible.
I would caution using figures provided from one side, though.
600 would be a plausible figure on what's being reported. Anything more and the Russian tactics must either have involved mass suicides or they've been shooting at more than one ship on their own side.
Unless, of course, the 2,800 includes wounded. That would be plausible.
Ukraine was never going to defend up to its borders so the fact of significant incursions beyond those borders means nothing, if those advances are only so far as planned killing zones or airborne advances into heavily defended targets.
Bear in mind too that tanks and armoured vehicles are increasingly seen as outdated technology, vulnerable to close range attack from small low cost weapons wielded by determined defenders.
0 -
Yes, but that doesn't have to accommodate a bomb bay.ydoethur said:
Seems unlikely. A TU95 Hull can carry 20 passengers in Tu-116 form, which suggests a bit more than a crawl way behind the cockpit.JosiasJessop said:Someone said a story many moons ago that during the Cold War, the west would send up fighters to intercept their bombers, and it became common for messages to be written on sheets and held up to the cockpit. It became a bit of a game between bomber crew and interceptors.
Being paranoid idiots, the Russians did not like this, so they sent KGB officers up to ensure no secrets were being given away.
The Bear bomber is basically a cigar tube with a gunner at the rear and the cockpit at the front. Between the two is a very narrow crawlspace. So our interceptors would go to the front of the plane, then to the rear, and the KGB officer would have to crawl between the two. The fighters would then go to the front, and the officer would have to crawl all the way to the front. Repeat until the KGB officer is thoroughly pi**ed off.
The story says that once Vladamir Putin was one of the officers, and he has had a healthy dislike of the west ever since...
No idea if it's true, or even if the Bear has a crawlspace. and it sounds a bit Tom Clancy to me, but it'd be fun if true.
0 -
As I posted earlier Trump did at least warn the Germans of the danger of relying for so much of their energy on Russia and also pushed them hard to spend more on defenceRichard_Tyndall said:
I don't believe that is accurate at all. The only thing I would concede is that Putin might have thought that Trump was so bat shit crazy he would just launch an all out war. But in fact Trump had made clear all the way through he didn't give a shit about Europe, NATO or anything else overseas unless it impinged on his chances of remaining in office.LordWakefield said:Obviously the Ukrainian invasion wouldn't have happened with a strongman in the White House. A tyrant like Putin against Joe Biden well what a fuck up. For many on then Left that opposed Trump this is life coming at you fast.
0 -
Something that really worries me is in 10 days or so if Russia has taken heavy losses and made little to no advance that Putin will deploy nuclear weapons. He seems mad enough to do it.1
-
I wasn't making a general point but how the head of German Intelligence could conclude that this invasion was "unlikely" is simply beyond me. The likes of @Yokes on here was able to identify almost the hour it started by observing the deployment and communication systems. That is some intelligence service.EPG said:
Because the British right-wing is scratching its anti-German itch this week? Germany cancelled Nord Stream 2 while the UK won't cancel Hilary Term at Eton. Course, the UK sent more material assistance to Ukraine, but instead of agreeing to unite some people want to pretend to be better in every way.DavidL said:
Why does the phrase with friends like these come to mind?EPG said:
I would see the presence of German intelligence in Kiev as good news for Ukraine, all in all. It suggests some kind of assistance.williamglenn said:The head of the German Intelligence Agency had to be evacuated from Ukraine. Apparently he didn't believe an invasion would happen...
https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise/praesident-des-bundesnachrichtendienstes-wurde-aus-hoechster-not-aus-der-ukraine-gerettet_id_59192174.html
Germany, under immense US pressure, did the right thing with Norstream 2 at a considerable personal cost. Their refusal to provide armaments, or even let others provide kit they have bought from them, to Ukraine is shameful and misguided.
But I totally agree with your general point. The west must act together on this rather than sniping. A little bit less of the "Tories are bought and paid for" when we supplied so many antitank systems wouldn't go amiss either. These ridiculous, self indulgent internal wrangles really need to be put aside for a while. SKS, in fairness, has seen this clearly.4 -
Putin has no 'main opponent'. He has performative opponents that he can beat very comfortably in staged contests. Real opponents - the likes of Navalny - are jailed or killed.HYUFD said:
Putin's United Russia's main opponent is the Communist Party, Russian elections are a bit like alien v predator!MoonRabbit said:
He’s not. But so many left wing and right wing minds are hot wired and living in the past, such as the 12 Labour politicians and their letter so predictably supported Putin, they can’t tell the difference from communists or Putin in the Kremlin.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Putin's not a leftie either!MoonRabbit said:
LOL 😂 it’s quite clear from 2500 posts I’m not a Putinist, nor a leftie!JosiasJessop said:
Ah, two cheeks of the same Putinist arse.Heathener said:
I agree completely.MoonRabbit said:
This Ukraine Crisis could, likely will, quickly subside into nothing from here now, with ceasefire, Ukraine surrender, talks in Moscow between the governments.IshmaelZ said:
I think we will be fine. this is more a "in a fit of pique he decided to napalm Cheltenham" moment. I would be betting on Putin out of office by y/e if I were not so heavily invested in BJ being out of office, errm, worryingly soonTheScreamingEagles said:I'm feeling rather pessimistic at the moment.
The further invasion of Ukraine feels like a Sudetenland 1938 moment.
The reckoning on Boris is not cancelled till summer, it’s coming as soon as this thing dies down as the lazy and poor way he has handled the crisis only adds to the reasons to replace him.
Russia will have overrun Ukraine by the end of the weekend and I'm afraid it will subside as news until the next of Putin's atrocities threatens to wake us up.
We will back to domestic politics very soon.
We may see this is appalling (it is) but MoonRabbit is right.
In his last election he campaigned on Conservative values, his support for Russian church etc. sort of things the Marxists had no time for and worse by their actions.
Russians don't really do liberalism except for a handful of highly educated and very rich people living in the big cities
At one time (the 2000 election), the Communists really were a force that might win. Indeed, that was one of the main reasons Yeltsin resigned and Putin took over. However, those days are long gone.
This is why talk of oligarchs is anachronistic. In 2000, there were meaningful points of dispersed power. The oligarchs were one such (or several such, depending on your take), as were the media networks they and others controlled. As were semi-autonomous parts of the state, including the prosecutors office, as was Yeltsin and his family for that matter.
No longer. All meaningful power and control of all significant money resides in the Kremlin or via people franchised by it. And by 'the Kremlin', that means Putin, personally and individually. He wields more power in Russia than any individual since Stalin; he is a republican tsar.
But like tsars, and like Stalin, he is still vulnerable to a coup, a revolution or an assassin's bomb or bullet.4 -
Plus supply chains will be stretching and vulnerable to many angry citizens of Ukr.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Each side always exaggerates - dividing by 3 is not a bad rule of thumb and would deliver plausible numbers over the course of two days.ydoethur said:
If they've lost 60,000 soldiers into the field and lost 5% of them in 36 hours, I don't think we'd be talking about Russian advances. Or even, Russians losing momentum. We would be talking about the Ukrainian advance on Minsk.JosiasJessop said:
To put it into context, in the second Iraq war the US lost about 4,500 people killed, from combat and other causes. In Afghanistan, they lost about 2,300. Those were in wars that lasted over a decade in the first case, and two decades in the second.MaxPB said:
Yeah even at 10% of those numbers that's more that Putin expected to lose over the whole conflict. If that's even close to correct the pressure at home will start building as husbands, brothers, sons and fathers start coming home in body bags.CarlottaVance said:Even if this is only half a quarter right, this is no walk in the park:
Russia has lost 2,800 troops, 80 tanks, 516 armored vehicles, 10 airplanes, and 7 helicopters in its invasion of Ukraine: [Ukrainian] deputy defense minister.
Numbers as of 3pm Ukraine time.
https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1497214326213652480
That's up to 2800 families who have had their lives ruined for Putin's vanity.
Over many years in Vietnam, they lost ~60,000.
If Russia's lost anything near 2,800 in less than two days, then that's terrible.
I would caution using figures provided from one side, though.
600 would be a plausible figure on what's being reported. Anything more and the Russian tactics must either have involved mass suicides or they've been shooting at more than one ship on their own side.
Unless, of course, the 2,800 includes wounded. That would be plausible.
Ukraine was never going to defend up to its borders so the fact of significant incursions beyond those borders means nothing, if those advances are only so far as planned killing zones or airborne advances into heavily defended targets.
Bear in mind too that tanks and armoured vehicles are increasingly seen as outdated technology, vulnerable to close range attack from small low cost weapons wielded by determined defenders.0 -
I get why Zelensky needs to be very visible and making statements in all this, but it seems very odd for Putin to do so, like he's a colour commentator. Then again he started things off with an hour long historical rant, so it was odd frfom the off.dixiedean said:Putin calling on the Ukrainian army to overthrow its own government.
That really is having lost all touch with reality.0 -
The point is Putin wouldn't have dared invade Ukraine with Trump in the White House because of the latter's unpredictability. This is what Konstantin Kisin said in his recent video and I agree with it.rottenborough said:
Eh? Trump would have celebrated fellow 'strongman' genius and done absolutely nothing to block him.LordWakefield said:Obviously the Ukrainian invasion wouldn't have happened with a strongman in the White House. A tyrant like Putin against Joe Biden well what a fuck up. For many on then Left that opposed Trump this is life coming at you fast.
He'd probably be trying to send weapons and ammo to Vlad to help him on his way.2 -
Putin tried that with Yuschenko as long ago as 2003.FrancisUrquhart said:
Isn't this just the thing that was reported earlier, we will talk to Ukraine, but only if they come to Belarus....I wouldn't go near the place, everything could easily be poisoned.Taz said:CNBC is reporting that China are stating Putin is willing to conduct high level talks with Ukraine.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Yushchenko#TCDD_poisoning0 -
Boom! Bangabang!!numbertwelve said:Breaking: the ultimate sanction has been unleashed!
Russia has been kicked out of the Eurovision Song Contest1 -
Course that's tiny but as a general point cultural and sporting isolation can hurt. It played a role in ending official white supremacy in South Africa.numbertwelve said:Breaking: the ultimate sanction has been unleashed!
Russia has been kicked out of the Eurovision Song Contest1 -
I hope to God that this latest Russia love-in will be the final curtain for Trump. But I fear not.WhisperingOracle said:
..and in the baragain was only yesterday sucking up to and praising Putin, like the degenerated rat he is.Richard_Tyndall said:
I don't believe that is accurate at all. The only thing I would concede is that Putin might have thought that Trump was so bat shit crazy he would just launch an all out war. But in fact Trump had made clear all the way through he didn't give a shit about Europe, NATO or anything else overseas unless it impinged on his chances of remaining in office.LordWakefield said:Obviously the Ukrainian invasion wouldn't have happened with a strongman in the White House. A tyrant like Putin against Joe Biden well what a fuck up. For many on then Left that opposed Trump this is life coming at you fast.
Piece in NY Times about how Dems are going to lose big time to Trump or Trump standin unless they start delivering for working class in Ohio etc:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/24/opinion/defeat-trump-democrat-myths.html0 -
Albeit that took 22 years.kinabalu said:
Course that's tiny but as a general point cultural and sporting isolation can hurt. It played a role in ending official white supremacy in South Africa.numbertwelve said:Breaking: the ultimate sanction has been unleashed!
Russia has been kicked out of the Eurovision Song Contest0 -
Yeah. I wonder if people moaning about Tories and oligarchs think this is... long term helpful to a free society. Dopey.DavidL said:
I wasn't making a general point but how the head of German Intelligence could conclude that this invasion was "unlikely" is simply beyond me. The likes of @Yokes on here was able to identify almost the hour it started by observing the deployment and communication systems. That is some intelligence service.EPG said:
Because the British right-wing is scratching its anti-German itch this week? Germany cancelled Nord Stream 2 while the UK won't cancel Hilary Term at Eton. Course, the UK sent more material assistance to Ukraine, but instead of agreeing to unite some people want to pretend to be better in every way.DavidL said:
Why does the phrase with friends like these come to mind?EPG said:
I would see the presence of German intelligence in Kiev as good news for Ukraine, all in all. It suggests some kind of assistance.williamglenn said:The head of the German Intelligence Agency had to be evacuated from Ukraine. Apparently he didn't believe an invasion would happen...
https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise/praesident-des-bundesnachrichtendienstes-wurde-aus-hoechster-not-aus-der-ukraine-gerettet_id_59192174.html
Germany, under immense US pressure, did the right thing with Norstream 2 at a considerable personal cost. Their refusal to provide armaments, or even let others provide kit they have bought from them, to Ukraine is shameful and misguided.
But I totally agree with your general point. The west must act together on this rather than sniping. A little bit less of the "Tories are bought and paid for" when we supplied so many antitank systems wouldn't go amiss either. These ridiculous, self indulgent internal wrangles really need to be put aside for a while. SKS, in fairness, has seen this clearly.1 -
A lot of planning has gone into this invasion, if you take in the political elements in the lead-up, too. I would say it's very likely to have been in the pipeline for more than a year, and the most likely assumption would be that Trump would be in place during it. Trump's unpredictability on all sorts of things was a given ; his consistent avoidance of any confrontation with Putin was actually one of the few constants you could set your clock by.Andy_JS said:
The point is Putin wouldn't have dared invade Ukraine with Trump in the White House because of the latter's unpredictability. This is what Konstantin Kisin said in his recent video and I agree with it.rottenborough said:
Eh? Trump would have celebrated fellow 'strongman' genius and done absolutely nothing to block him.LordWakefield said:Obviously the Ukrainian invasion wouldn't have happened with a strongman in the White House. A tyrant like Putin against Joe Biden well what a fuck up. For many on then Left that opposed Trump this is life coming at you fast.
He'd probably be trying to send weapons and ammo to Vlad to help him on his way.1 -
I am surprised Putin hasn't banned Russia from entering as too many display of campness, claiming corrupting young Russian minds towards homosexuality.....numbertwelve said:Breaking: the ultimate sanction has been unleashed!
Russia has been kicked out of the Eurovision Song Contest
1 -
I love the 'unknown hole' story of the TU-4 bomber, possibly apocryphal. The Russians got several B-29 bombers that diverted after damage fighting Japan. Stalin ordered their own, Russian version. It led to a hole in the wing that did not need to be there....Malmesbury said:
And it is the last in the line of a series of stretches and re-designs of... a B-29.....JosiasJessop said:
Except the bomb load is in the way in the bomber version...ydoethur said:
Seems unlikely. A TU95 Hull can carry 20 passengers in Tu-116 form, which suggests a bit more than a crawl way behind the cockpit.JosiasJessop said:Someone said a story many moons ago that during the Cold War, the west would send up fighters to intercept their bombers, and it became common for messages to be written on sheets and held up to the cockpit. It became a bit of a game between bomber crew and interceptors.
Being paranoid idiots, the Russians did not like this, so they sent KGB officers up to ensure no secrets were being given away.
The Bear bomber is basically a cigar tube with a gunner at the rear and the cockpit at the front. Between the two is a very narrow crawlspace. So our interceptors would go to the front of the plane, then to the rear, and the KGB officer would have to crawl between the two. The fighters would then go to the front, and the officer would have to crawl all the way to the front. Repeat until the KGB officer is thoroughly pi**ed off.
The story says that once Vladamir Putin was one of the officers, and he has had a healthy dislike of the west ever since...
No idea if it's true, or even if the Bear has a crawlspace. and it sounds a bit Tom Clancy to me, but it'd be fun if true.
"“A little hole was found on the left wing of the [first] aircraft. No aerodynamics or durability expert had the slightest idead what the hell it was there for. There was no tube or wire attached to it, and there was no equivalent to it on the right wing. The opinion of a commission of experts was that the hole had been bored by a factory drill at the same time as the other holes for the rivets. So what to do? Most probably, the hole had been drilled by mistake, and later no one had bothered to fill it in as it was much too small. The chief designer was aked his opinion. ‘Do the Amercans have it?’ ‘Yes.’ ‘So why the hell are you asking me? Weren’t we ordered to make them identical! Alike as two peas?’ So, for that reason, a very small hole indeed, made with the thinnest possible drill, appeared on the left wing of all Tu-4 strategic bombers…’”
https://aviationhumor.net/soviet-b-29-clone-the-tupolev-tu-4-with-a-very-small-unnecessary-hole/
I also believe the Russians had great trouble making the glass and ?rubber? for their copies.0 -
You’re delusional.LordWakefield said:Obviously the Ukrainian invasion wouldn't have happened with a strongman in the White House. A tyrant like Putin against Joe Biden well what a fuck up. For many on then Left that opposed Trump this is life coming at you fast.
5 -
yes , sort of like the USA did with Japan . All those wanting Ukraine to get engaged with a long and bloody fight risk escalation with a nuclear powerMaxPB said:Something that really worries me is in 10 days or so if Russia has taken heavy losses and made little to no advance that Putin will deploy nuclear weapons. He seems mad enough to do it.
0 -
Yep. It's an uncomfortable truth that when Obama was in the White House Putin invaded Ukraine, and now Biden is he's done it again. He was (relatively) less belligerent in the intervening four years. It can't be a sustainable strategy long-term, but having a volatile US President to deal with is a pretty powerful deterrent to doing anything drastic.Andy_JS said:
The point is Putin wouldn't have dared invade Ukraine with Trump in the White House because of the latter's unpredictability. This is what Konstantin Kisin said in his recent video and I agree with it.rottenborough said:
Eh? Trump would have celebrated fellow 'strongman' genius and done absolutely nothing to block him.LordWakefield said:Obviously the Ukrainian invasion wouldn't have happened with a strongman in the White House. A tyrant like Putin against Joe Biden well what a fuck up. For many on then Left that opposed Trump this is life coming at you fast.
He'd probably be trying to send weapons and ammo to Vlad to help him on his way.0 -
The international community has been far too weak on this. Giving Russia the football and the Olympics and still far too weak real punishments for all the state sponsored doping.kinabalu said:
Course that's tiny but as a general point cultural and sporting isolation can hurt. It played a role in ending official white supremacy in South Africa.numbertwelve said:Breaking: the ultimate sanction has been unleashed!
Russia has been kicked out of the Eurovision Song Contest0
