What should the West do? the UK view of a range of suggestions – YouGov – politicalbetting.com

Heathener said:

JosiasJessop said:

Heathener said:

MoonRabbit said:

IshmaelZ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm feeling rather pessimistic at the moment.

The further invasion of Ukraine feels like a Sudetenland 1938 moment.

I think we will be fine. this is more a "in a fit of pique he decided to napalm Cheltenham" moment. I would be betting on Putin out of office by y/e if I were not so heavily invested in BJ being out of office, errm, worryingly soon

This Ukraine Crisis could, likely will, quickly subside into nothing from here now, with ceasefire, Ukraine surrender, talks in Moscow between the governments.

The reckoning on Boris is not cancelled till summer, it’s coming as soon as this thing dies down as the lazy and poor way he has handled the crisis only adds to the reasons to replace him.

I agree completely.

Russia will have overrun Ukraine by the end of the weekend and I'm afraid it will subside as news until the next of Putin's atrocities threatens to wake us up.

We will back to domestic politics very soon.

We may see this is appalling (it is) but MoonRabbit is right.

Ah, two cheeks of the same Putinist arse.

You're a really unpleasant extreme right winger.

I posted a sensible comment and you resorted to your usual pompous bellicosity.

(p.s. I loathe Putin)

Putin is a really unpleasant extreme right winger.

Peter_the_Punter said:

StuartDickson said:

LDLF said:

I'm not a football expert but judging by general football fan reactions, closing down Chelsea is probably an automatic vote-winner at any time, war or no war.

The number one thing that would damage Russia is if the West (that includes us, but particularly the EU as well) stops buying from them. This is difficult to do as so many raw materials come from there.

En passant: by Vlad's logic, if he takes Kiev will he be giving Saint Petersburg back to Sweden?

Why stop at Greater Finland? We want Bornholm back. And Trøndelag. And while we’re at it give us back Bremen-Verden, Pomerania and Wismar too. Thieving bastards.

Come to think of it, it was us who invented Kievan Russia…

Seriously, wouldn't the addition of Finland to NATO strengthen it massively?

It has a huge land border with Russia. NATO could conduct 'exercises' along it all year round and the Russians would be obliged to post large numbers of troops on their side 'just in case'.

I do believe attitudes towards NATO have changed markedly in Finland of late. The Finns of course have every reason to be hostile and suspicious towards the Russians.

Russians got a bloody nose when they tried to invade in 1939.

Thinking about the SWIFT issue. Are we more effective by banning Russia from using it, or by keeping them in and encouraging capital flight from the Russian economy?

williamglenn said:

I think Putin's domestic position will come under increasing pressure and he'll end up with the perfect storm of street protests coinciding with elite discontent. I just hope Zelensky lives to see it.

From some of the reputable news reports it appears he hasn't prepared Russian public opinion for this. I'm beginning to think that he genuinely believed there was a lot of pro-invasion support in Ukraine itself. If the Ukrainians have scattered lots of small units with modern anti-tank weapons and they have the morale to fight then Russian casualties will be large.

Draghi really is a twit - I wonder what possibly might have delayed the President of Ukraine from ordering some fine leather goods taking a phone call?

Italian PM Draghi: "We had a phone appointment at 9.30am [with Zelensky], but it was not possible to make the call, he was no longer available."
Yes, PM #Draghi, Ukrainians are busy with tanks and rockets. Italy is not helping much. #SWIFT

That remark led to a flurry of stories about Zelenskyy having fled Kyiv…..notably promoted by China State media.

NorthofStoke said:

williamglenn said:

I think Putin's domestic position will come under increasing pressure and he'll end up with the perfect storm of street protests coinciding with elite discontent. I just hope Zelensky lives to see it.

From some of the reputable news reports it appears he hasn't prepared Russian public opinion for this. I'm beginning to think that he genuinely believed there was a lot of pro-invasion support in Ukraine itself. If the Ukrainians have scattered lots of small units with modern anti-tank weapons and they have the morale to fight then Russian casualties will be large.

NorthofStoke said:

williamglenn said:

I think Putin's domestic position will come under increasing pressure and he'll end up with the perfect storm of street protests coinciding with elite discontent. I just hope Zelensky lives to see it.

From some of the reputable news reports it appears he hasn't prepared Russian public opinion for this. I'm beginning to think that he genuinely believed there was a lot of pro-invasion support in Ukraine itself. If the Ukrainians have scattered lots of small units with modern anti-tank weapons and they have the morale to fight then Russian casualties will be large.

I think the modern anti-tank weapons generate the morale to fight. They have been seen to be effective, and if they are available, then the desire to pop off another unit of the invader, and fade away has to be pretty strong.

NorthofStoke said:

williamglenn said:

I think Putin's domestic position will come under increasing pressure and he'll end up with the perfect storm of street protests coinciding with elite discontent. I just hope Zelensky lives to see it.

From some of the reputable news reports it appears he hasn't prepared Russian public opinion for this. I'm beginning to think that he genuinely believed there was a lot of pro-invasion support in Ukraine itself. If the Ukrainians have scattered lots of small units with modern anti-tank weapons and they have the morale to fight then Russian casualties will be large.

Any messages home from conscripts are unlikely to conform to the official version.

Richard_Tyndall said:

MoonRabbit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

Seize Chelsea and then close them down.

I support this measure.

UEFA are bellends though.

How am I supposed to get a hotel ticket for the CL final in Paris to see Liverpool win Number 7 when the French Open is taking place at the same time.

Also, UEFA are still letting Russia/Russian teams play. Go full South Africa on them.

Surely you can at least start by refusing the money - final switched, but the Gazprom sponsor link remains? F1 race cancelled, but taking the money remains?

Manchester United have made a start by dropping their sponsorship deal with Aeroflot today

That’s brilliant from them. But surely the big rich governing bodies can take the lead from their sponsors. For example, are Man U now at a disadvantage compared to others simply because they have a soul?

Peter_the_Punter said:

StuartDickson said:

LDLF said:

I'm not a football expert but judging by general football fan reactions, closing down Chelsea is probably an automatic vote-winner at any time, war or no war.

The number one thing that would damage Russia is if the West (that includes us, but particularly the EU as well) stops buying from them. This is difficult to do as so many raw materials come from there.

En passant: by Vlad's logic, if he takes Kiev will he be giving Saint Petersburg back to Sweden?

Why stop at Greater Finland? We want Bornholm back. And Trøndelag. And while we’re at it give us back Bremen-Verden, Pomerania and Wismar too. Thieving bastards.

Come to think of it, it was us who invented Kievan Russia…

Seriously, wouldn't the addition of Finland to NATO strengthen it massively?

It has a huge land border with Russia. NATO could conduct 'exercises' along it all year round and the Russians would be obliged to post large numbers of troops on their side 'just in case'.

I do believe attitudes towards NATO have changed markedly in Finland of late. The Finns of course have every reason to be hostile and suspicious towards the Russians.

The Tsar was Grand Duke of Finland, was he not?

Revanchists please note.

CarlottaVance said:

Someone looks rattled:

Putin describes Ukraine’s government as “a gang of drug addicts” and calls on the country’s forces to surrender

https://twitter.com/evangershkovich/status/1497223417573093378?

He doesn't do self awareness or irony, does he?

A comment I've just received from someone who knows Ukraine well, for what it's worth.

"Background gamma radiation levels are rising at Chernobyl. The Russian soldiers there are drunk and were selling their diesel to buy food and drink when they were in Belarus. I noticed the FSB and special forces are selling their boots to raise cash (I have the same taste in boots). That means they are fucked. The privatisation of the military logistics in Russia has been a total fuck up. A subject I know well.

The FSB and KGB murder squads are a bunch of losers. I have seen what they do in Kyiv (I was evacuated from my hotel because of a couple of murders when I was there). They use drunk losers who get caught and then die on their first day in jail. Barely scary, thick as shit and easy to catch. Welcome to the real world of the botox dwarf’s murder machine. It is not that scary. He is not that scary.
If the Russians set one boot over the NATO border they will be apologising for their stupidity as Wagner did when they were carpet bombed by the US. A different league entirely."

On balance, Italians view Russia as more of a friend than an enemy.

https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1497183887939805210?s=21

MoonRabbit said:

darkage said:

MoonRabbit said:

kle4 said:

MoonRabbit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Italian prime minister Mario Draghi successfully secured a carve out for Italian luxury goods from the EU's package of economic sanctions against Nato, EU dip tells me. 'Apparently selling Gucci loafers to oligarchs is more of a priority than hitting back at Putin,' source adds.

https://twitter.com/Barnes_Joe/status/1497194009038626842?

“The EU is preparing to freeze the assets of Russia’s president Vladimir Putin and foreign minister Sergei Lavrov as part of a third round of sanctions against Russia, the Financial Times reports.”

Wow! Getting seriously tough on them now then. 🙄

Wasn’t this done years ago? How many times down the years can they keep announcing this?

Meanwhile, Zelenskiy latest address has said:

* UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT ACCUSES EUROPE OF INSUFFICIENT REACTION, SLOW HELP TO UKRAINE
* UKRAINE’S ZELENSKIY SAYS RUSSIAN ASSAULT LIKE REPEAT OF WORLD WAR TWO UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT CALLS ON EUROPEAN CITIZENS TO PROTEST TO FORCE THEIR GOVERNMENTS TO MORE DECISIVELY

Moved on from the more harmonious talk of allies, which is fair enough.

He doesn’t regard us as shoulder to shoulder, although UK government still spinning that impression out for internal consumption.

What do we make of this bit. Does Zelenskiy really want to surrender to neutrality in talks with Putin?

Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s recent comments as he called on Vladimir Putin to sit return to the negotiation table.
In a televised statement today, Zelenskiy said he is calling on the Russian leader to negotiate to put an end to the fighting.

Will Zelenskiy stay alive to allow Moscow to use him as a puppet? Or give himself both barrels like Allende. Or flee to Spain like Peron?

Allende shot himself rather than be used as a puppet. Will Zelenskiy Putin puppet and neutral Ukraine be the end game and some sort of closure? If so, it means the NATO position of not really helping, and the fact sanctions and other help has been rubbish is justified, and could have come from our intelligence suggesting Zelenskiy would end up doing this?

My prediction is Zelenskiy will be in Moscow having talks very soon.

Presumably the negotiations could be done on Teams/Zoom?

It could be I agree with you. But if Russia dictate where, Zelenskiy will be flown to Moscow as I suspect.

Does PB think Zelenskiy is serious about discussing Ukraine neutrality with Moscow?

The fact they have suggested Byelorus as a neutral venue tells you all you need to know.

I wouldn’t go there if I were Zelensky

Burgessian said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

StuartDickson said:

LDLF said:

I'm not a football expert but judging by general football fan reactions, closing down Chelsea is probably an automatic vote-winner at any time, war or no war.

The number one thing that would damage Russia is if the West (that includes us, but particularly the EU as well) stops buying from them. This is difficult to do as so many raw materials come from there.

En passant: by Vlad's logic, if he takes Kiev will he be giving Saint Petersburg back to Sweden?

Why stop at Greater Finland? We want Bornholm back. And Trøndelag. And while we’re at it give us back Bremen-Verden, Pomerania and Wismar too. Thieving bastards.

Come to think of it, it was us who invented Kievan Russia…

Seriously, wouldn't the addition of Finland to NATO strengthen it massively?

It has a huge land border with Russia. NATO could conduct 'exercises' along it all year round and the Russians would be obliged to post large numbers of troops on their side 'just in case'.

I do believe attitudes towards NATO have changed markedly in Finland of late. The Finns of course have every reason to be hostile and suspicious towards the Russians.

The Tsar was Grand Duke of Finland, was he not?

Revanchists please note.

I bet the Finns loved him.

"Did Covid pandemic send Putin mad? Neuropsychologist reveals how 'progressive isolation' could have left the Russian leader, 69, even further detached from reality and 'diminished his ability to weigh up risk'

Putin could be suffering from hubris syndrome, according to expert
It is associated with a loss of contact with reality and inability to weigh up risk"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-10551251/Did-Covid-send-Putin-mad.html

MoonRabbit said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

MoonRabbit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

Seize Chelsea and then close them down.

I support this measure.

UEFA are bellends though.

How am I supposed to get a hotel ticket for the CL final in Paris to see Liverpool win Number 7 when the French Open is taking place at the same time.

Also, UEFA are still letting Russia/Russian teams play. Go full South Africa on them.

Surely you can at least start by refusing the money - final switched, but the Gazprom sponsor link remains? F1 race cancelled, but taking the money remains?

Manchester United have made a start by dropping their sponsorship deal with Aeroflot today

That’s brilliant from them. But surely the big rich governing bodies can take the lead from their sponsors. For example, are Man U now at a disadvantage compared to others simply because they have a soul?

Other teams should give them a goal start, not that they need it so much these days.

Peter_the_Punter said:

StuartDickson said:

LDLF said:

I'm not a football expert but judging by general football fan reactions, closing down Chelsea is probably an automatic vote-winner at any time, war or no war.

The number one thing that would damage Russia is if the West (that includes us, but particularly the EU as well) stops buying from them. This is difficult to do as so many raw materials come from there.

En passant: by Vlad's logic, if he takes Kiev will he be giving Saint Petersburg back to Sweden?

Why stop at Greater Finland? We want Bornholm back. And Trøndelag. And while we’re at it give us back Bremen-Verden, Pomerania and Wismar too. Thieving bastards.

Come to think of it, it was us who invented Kievan Russia…

Seriously, wouldn't the addition of Finland to NATO strengthen it massively?

It has a huge land border with Russia. NATO could conduct 'exercises' along it all year round and the Russians would be obliged to post large numbers of troops on their side 'just in case'.

I do believe attitudes towards NATO have changed markedly in Finland of late. The Finns of course have every reason to be hostile and suspicious towards the Russians.

42-28 were against joining in January and the PM ruled it out, according to this:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/finlands-pm-says-nato-membership-is-very-unlikely-her-watch-2022-01-19/

Recent events may have shifted attitudes, though. A Feb poll by the Farmers' Union suggests 45-33 in favour:

https://yle.fi/news/3-12305027#:~:text=A fresh poll commissioned and published by the,that membership were recommended by the nation's leaders

I've never heard of Russia showing any real interest in Finland since WW2, though others may know otherwise. As neighbourly relations go, everyone seemed to move on after Russia had attacked Finland and Finland had then allied with Germany to attack Russia - you'd think it would have left lasting bad feeling, but it apprently didn't, perhaps because Finland has been ostentiously neutral ever since (which is why the PM is still reluctant). Active dislike between Russia and the Baltic States is far more intense, and there it really is NATO membership which is likely to be a deterrent.

…

StillWaters said:

MoonRabbit said:

darkage said:

MoonRabbit said:

kle4 said:

MoonRabbit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Italian prime minister Mario Draghi successfully secured a carve out for Italian luxury goods from the EU's package of economic sanctions against Nato, EU dip tells me. 'Apparently selling Gucci loafers to oligarchs is more of a priority than hitting back at Putin,' source adds.

https://twitter.com/Barnes_Joe/status/1497194009038626842?

“The EU is preparing to freeze the assets of Russia’s president Vladimir Putin and foreign minister Sergei Lavrov as part of a third round of sanctions against Russia, the Financial Times reports.”

Wow! Getting seriously tough on them now then. 🙄

Wasn’t this done years ago? How many times down the years can they keep announcing this?

Meanwhile, Zelenskiy latest address has said:

* UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT ACCUSES EUROPE OF INSUFFICIENT REACTION, SLOW HELP TO UKRAINE
* UKRAINE’S ZELENSKIY SAYS RUSSIAN ASSAULT LIKE REPEAT OF WORLD WAR TWO UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT CALLS ON EUROPEAN CITIZENS TO PROTEST TO FORCE THEIR GOVERNMENTS TO MORE DECISIVELY

Moved on from the more harmonious talk of allies, which is fair enough.

He doesn’t regard us as shoulder to shoulder, although UK government still spinning that impression out for internal consumption.

What do we make of this bit. Does Zelenskiy really want to surrender to neutrality in talks with Putin?

Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s recent comments as he called on Vladimir Putin to sit return to the negotiation table.
In a televised statement today, Zelenskiy said he is calling on the Russian leader to negotiate to put an end to the fighting.

Will Zelenskiy stay alive to allow Moscow to use him as a puppet? Or give himself both barrels like Allende. Or flee to Spain like Peron?

Allende shot himself rather than be used as a puppet. Will Zelenskiy Putin puppet and neutral Ukraine be the end game and some sort of closure? If so, it means the NATO position of not really helping, and the fact sanctions and other help has been rubbish is justified, and could have come from our intelligence suggesting Zelenskiy would end up doing this?

My prediction is Zelenskiy will be in Moscow having talks very soon.

Presumably the negotiations could be done on Teams/Zoom?

It could be I agree with you. But if Russia dictate where, Zelenskiy will be flown to Moscow as I suspect.

Does PB think Zelenskiy is serious about discussing Ukraine neutrality with Moscow?

The fact they have suggested Byelorus as a neutral venue tells you all you need to know.

I wouldn’t go there if I were Zelensky

The fact that they have suggested talks tells you that it’s not exactly going as they hoped….

CarlottaVance said:

NorthofStoke said:

williamglenn said:

I think Putin's domestic position will come under increasing pressure and he'll end up with the perfect storm of street protests coinciding with elite discontent. I just hope Zelensky lives to see it.

From some of the reputable news reports it appears he hasn't prepared Russian public opinion for this. I'm beginning to think that he genuinely believed there was a lot of pro-invasion support in Ukraine itself. If the Ukrainians have scattered lots of small units with modern anti-tank weapons and they have the morale to fight then Russian casualties will be large.

Any messages home from conscripts are unlikely to conform to the official version.

Point of order.

Why are RT still broadcasting on UK Freeview?

Gardenwalker said:

FPT

At this juncture, the EU foreign policy architecture has failed.

By allowing some countries to veto effective sanctions, it makes Europe - and the West - weaker.

It is not just Germany’s Wandel durch Handel that is discredited.

No wonder Tusk is furious, the Baltics scathing, and Ukraine despairing.

None of this excuses London’s own failings, but this is a monumental error by the EU (and Germany in particular), and there will be ramifications.

I bet those ramifications will be more power for Brussels

Gardenwalker said:

On balance, Italians view Russia as more of a friend than an enemy.

https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1497183887939805210?s=21

An absolute bunch of Corbyns.

Heathener said:

Meanwhile the stock markets are on big rallies today. Why? Because capitalists only care about money and they know the sanctions don't touch the real dosh.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market-data

Easy to blame the EU but where was London when Putin's money was flowing here over the last 15 years? When Boris played tennis for £160,000 of Putin's mafiosa money the same year that Putin shot down MH17, killing 283 innocent people including 80 children.

No Conservative can claim the moral high ground today.

Keep on serving your master in Moscow.

Trying to sow party political division where all are United in horror at what Putin is doing

Heathener said:

JosiasJessop said:

Heathener said:

MoonRabbit said:

IshmaelZ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm feeling rather pessimistic at the moment.

The further invasion of Ukraine feels like a Sudetenland 1938 moment.

I think we will be fine. this is more a "in a fit of pique he decided to napalm Cheltenham" moment. I would be betting on Putin out of office by y/e if I were not so heavily invested in BJ being out of office, errm, worryingly soon

This Ukraine Crisis could, likely will, quickly subside into nothing from here now, with ceasefire, Ukraine surrender, talks in Moscow between the governments.

The reckoning on Boris is not cancelled till summer, it’s coming as soon as this thing dies down as the lazy and poor way he has handled the crisis only adds to the reasons to replace him.

I agree completely.

Russia will have overrun Ukraine by the end of the weekend and I'm afraid it will subside as news until the next of Putin's atrocities threatens to wake us up.

We will back to domestic politics very soon.

We may see this is appalling (it is) but MoonRabbit is right.

Ah, two cheeks of the same Putinist arse.

You're a really unpleasant extreme right winger.

I posted a sensible comment and you resorted to your usual pompous bellicosity.

(p.s. I loathe Putin)

It's just that if I was a paid to post stuff to benefit Russia in this current environment, on a board with a generally (*) intelligent readership and posters, I would post the stuff you are. "Oh of course I hate Putin. But look, it'll all blow over and Boris is really at fault. He needs replacing."

Or similar. As you did in your post.

(*) excepting myself

Omnium said:

NerysHughes said:

Malmesbury said:

NorthofStoke said:

williamglenn said:

I think Putin's domestic position will come under increasing pressure and he'll end up with the perfect storm of street protests coinciding with elite discontent. I just hope Zelensky lives to see it.

From some of the reputable news reports it appears he hasn't prepared Russian public opinion for this. I'm beginning to think that he genuinely believed there was a lot of pro-invasion support in Ukraine itself. If the Ukrainians have scattered lots of small units with modern anti-tank weapons and they have the morale to fight then Russian casualties will be large.

A Russian relative reports that the picture in Russia via Russian media is very confused.

Apparently there is no joined up narrative about what is going on - people are confused about what the Russian military is actually trying to do in Ukraine....

I doubt Putin thought that Ukraine would put up such a fight

It would not surprise me if Putin was gone within a week, he looks very rattled in his latest video.

He has made Russia a Pariah State with absolutely no gain. Even if he installs a puppet Government in Kyiv the people there will not accept it.

There were instructions yesterday to Russian media that they could only use information from the state organisations in their broadcasts.

In the world of social media, information gets through.

MoonRabbit said:

Malmesbury said:

Chelyabinsk said:

HYUFD said:

"The old concepts of fighting big tank battles on European land mass are over," Boris rather naively told Tobias Ellwood last year.

Russia has the biggest number of tanks in the world and has just launched the first land invasion of an independent sovereign state in Europe since WW2.
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1497139951552671744?s=20&t=M3ZRMfdjWd-gYHi9u8MyuQ

Boris, we need more tanks and we need to send them to Poland and the Baltic States

From the Economist:

Ukraine’s army appears to have had more opportunities to employ anti-tank weapons than many supposed. America, Britain and other European allies gave Ukraine thousands of such weapons, including long-range American Javelins and shorter-range Anglo-Swedish nlaws, over the past two months. In places, these presented serious resistance to Russian advances in the north and east. It is thought that nlaws have never been used in combat before. Video footage taken around Kharkiv appears to show damaged tanks. Ukrainian officials said that Javelins and other weapons had “neutralised” an entire column of 15 t-72 tanks in Hlukhova, in the north-west of the country close to the Russian border.

You can buy 270 nlaws for the cost of upgrading one Challenger 2.

The big question about tanks is whether the investment in heavy armour actually buys you a big gain - much as warships now have little more than spall armour around the magazines.

DK Brown relates the moment that armour died in the RN for the Admirals - they asked the design section to armour the magazines in a new carrier design against a rocket propelled 2,000lb bomb. The deign section pointed out that such a weapon could pierce armour thicker than any armour could be made (there are specific limits on face hardened armour).

Tanks are (possibly) doomed by a solar problem - the thick armour is there against septic threats. Armouring the top of a tank to the same level is impossible.

In a future war involving NATO, the Americans would be dropping https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BLU-108 by the zillion. Point defence systems on tanks might protect against that - maybe...

In surface anti-tank weapons, cheap top-attack munitions are here (NLAW) - fire and forget, the weapon flies itself *over* the tank and explodes downward.

There’s different things you need to do in conflict isn’t there? It can’t all be over the horizon and emergent technology if you need to hold an area, guard something, steal something? Where I posted last week, similar to what Boris said tanks are so last century, it could be that type of holding and guarding is done differently or not as much in modern warfare?

Being in a nice metal box is only cool if the nice metal box keeps out the weather. Weather being shaped charge jets at Mach 10, darts made out of uranium at Mach 5 and the like.

In Iraq, a Challenger 2 survived x number of hits from RPGs. Nice.

If every expendable foot soldier is carrying a throwaway top attack weapon (NLAW and the like) - then suddenly your tank is just a place to be cremated in.

Up till now, in low-intensity wars, tanks were still useful - the weapons to crack them weren't generally available to low level opponents.

But people were already asking about the definite problems in a high intensity conflict. Someone dumps 10,000 smart anti-tank munitions in the sky over your tank army..... The Americans, in the Second Gulf war, tried that on an Iraqi armoured division....

Foxy said:

Omnium said:

NerysHughes said:

Malmesbury said:

NorthofStoke said:

williamglenn said:

I think Putin's domestic position will come under increasing pressure and he'll end up with the perfect storm of street protests coinciding with elite discontent. I just hope Zelensky lives to see it.

From some of the reputable news reports it appears he hasn't prepared Russian public opinion for this. I'm beginning to think that he genuinely believed there was a lot of pro-invasion support in Ukraine itself. If the Ukrainians have scattered lots of small units with modern anti-tank weapons and they have the morale to fight then Russian casualties will be large.

A Russian relative reports that the picture in Russia via Russian media is very confused.

Apparently there is no joined up narrative about what is going on - people are confused about what the Russian military is actually trying to do in Ukraine....

I doubt Putin thought that Ukraine would put up such a fight

It would not surprise me if Putin was gone within a week, he looks very rattled in his latest video.

He has made Russia a Pariah State with absolutely no gain. Even if he installs a puppet Government in Kyiv the people there will not accept it.

There were instructions yesterday to Russian media that they could only use information from the state organisations in their broadcasts.

In the world of social media, information gets through.

Yes, absolutely. I so hope Putin gets crucified by his own people.

FPT : I see the thugs from Chechnya are back. They've played a very important role in Russia's descent, over 20 years now.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10551327/Chechen-special-forces-hunters-unleashed-Ukraine-detain-kill-Kyiv-officials.html

Interior Ministry adviser Vadym Denysenko says 18,000 machine guns "have been handed out in Kyiv to all volunteers, all those who want to defend our capital with weapons in their arms".

JosiasJessop said:

Heathener said:

MoonRabbit said:

IshmaelZ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I'm feeling rather pessimistic at the moment.

The further invasion of Ukraine feels like a Sudetenland 1938 moment.

I think we will be fine. this is more a "in a fit of pique he decided to napalm Cheltenham" moment. I would be betting on Putin out of office by y/e if I were not so heavily invested in BJ being out of office, errm, worryingly soon

This Ukraine Crisis could, likely will, quickly subside into nothing from here now, with ceasefire, Ukraine surrender, talks in Moscow between the governments.

The reckoning on Boris is not cancelled till summer, it’s coming as soon as this thing dies down as the lazy and poor way he has handled the crisis only adds to the reasons to replace him.

I agree completely.

Russia will have overrun Ukraine by the end of the weekend and I'm afraid it will subside as news until the next of Putin's atrocities threatens to wake us up.

We will back to domestic politics very soon.

We may see this is appalling (it is) but MoonRabbit is right.

Ah, two cheeks of the same Putinist arse.

LOL 😂 it’s quite clear from 2500 posts I’m not a Putinist, nor a leftie! It’s also clear I’m trying to delve into facts behind the arguments and deliver cold sober analysis and what comes next.

Seriously, Jos, how do you see comings weeks pan out in this war and ceasefire abroad, and politics domestically in UK, that’s different than what I said in this thread?

I think the fact this happened throws up so many questions, once the war abates, the arguments in the West will really intensify. Lots of lessons to be learned, legacy and behaviour to be trashed or defended, between the western powers, but also in each countries domestic politics.

And there is not just the question of how, but why. Some on this forum say Putin mentally I’ll and Russian Nationalist in equal measure, Putin says it’s about security nukes in Cuba style, Trump and supporters say Putin has a point.

I’d like to add a third cause. Deep deep thinking from me, maybe it was Ukraine getting richer in EU in contrast across Russian border that mostly spooks Moscow.

Mexicanpete said:

CarlottaVance said:

The view of the American public:

Views of Russia are tanking.

85% now view it unfavorably -- the highest since the end of the Cold War.

http://on.gallup.com/3BRjqP1

https://twitter.com/AaronBlake/status/1497199646699102209

They were a lot faster off the mark than some of their politicians during the Falklands too.

Nonetheless a former President, former Mayor of NY, ex-Editor of Breitbart and most Fox News presenters remain behind the eight ball.

Dare we hope that Putin's miscalculation will not only result in his own removal but also the end of Trump's malign influence?

Gardenwalker said:

On balance, Italians view Russia as more of a friend than an enemy.

https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1497183887939805210?s=21

The survey was in Nov 2021.

I see that India was even more pro Russian. Not too surprised at China.

Gardenwalker said:

Putin needs regime change relatively quickly.

It feels like he his propaganda is failing, the dissent is more than expected, his troops are under-prepared, and the Ukrainians are feistier than expected.

Of course he has the “option” of years-long occupation, but I can’t see how that’s sustainable.

I'm not sure that the power brokers in the Kremlin see that as an option. It just erodes their wealth and prestige over time.

Russia has warned Finland, Sweden of military consequences if they seek to join NATO.

https://twitter.com/jasongroves1/status/1497222749252632583?s=21

CarlottaVance said:

Mexicanpete said:

CarlottaVance said:

NorthofStoke said:

williamglenn said:

I think Putin's domestic position will come under increasing pressure and he'll end up with the perfect storm of street protests coinciding with elite discontent. I just hope Zelensky lives to see it.

From some of the reputable news reports it appears he hasn't prepared Russian public opinion for this. I'm beginning to think that he genuinely believed there was a lot of pro-invasion support in Ukraine itself. If the Ukrainians have scattered lots of small units with modern anti-tank weapons and they have the morale to fight then Russian casualties will be large.

Any messages home from conscripts are unlikely to conform to the official version.

Point of order.

Why are RT still broadcasting on UK Freeview?

Because OFCOM are still investigating.

Fair point.

OFCOM presumably remain under EU control post Brexit... or does it just seem like it.

Malmesbury said:

MoonRabbit said:

Malmesbury said:

Chelyabinsk said:

HYUFD said:

"The old concepts of fighting big tank battles on European land mass are over," Boris rather naively told Tobias Ellwood last year.

Russia has the biggest number of tanks in the world and has just launched the first land invasion of an independent sovereign state in Europe since WW2.
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1497139951552671744?s=20&t=M3ZRMfdjWd-gYHi9u8MyuQ

Boris, we need more tanks and we need to send them to Poland and the Baltic States

From the Economist:

Ukraine’s army appears to have had more opportunities to employ anti-tank weapons than many supposed. America, Britain and other European allies gave Ukraine thousands of such weapons, including long-range American Javelins and shorter-range Anglo-Swedish nlaws, over the past two months. In places, these presented serious resistance to Russian advances in the north and east. It is thought that nlaws have never been used in combat before. Video footage taken around Kharkiv appears to show damaged tanks. Ukrainian officials said that Javelins and other weapons had “neutralised” an entire column of 15 t-72 tanks in Hlukhova, in the north-west of the country close to the Russian border.

You can buy 270 nlaws for the cost of upgrading one Challenger 2.

The big question about tanks is whether the investment in heavy armour actually buys you a big gain - much as warships now have little more than spall armour around the magazines.

DK Brown relates the moment that armour died in the RN for the Admirals - they asked the design section to armour the magazines in a new carrier design against a rocket propelled 2,000lb bomb. The deign section pointed out that such a weapon could pierce armour thicker than any armour could be made (there are specific limits on face hardened armour).

Tanks are (possibly) doomed by a solar problem - the thick armour is there against septic threats. Armouring the top of a tank to the same level is impossible.

In a future war involving NATO, the Americans would be dropping https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BLU-108 by the zillion. Point defence systems on tanks might protect against that - maybe...

In surface anti-tank weapons, cheap top-attack munitions are here (NLAW) - fire and forget, the weapon flies itself *over* the tank and explodes downward.

There’s different things you need to do in conflict isn’t there? It can’t all be over the horizon and emergent technology if you need to hold an area, guard something, steal something? Where I posted last week, similar to what Boris said tanks are so last century, it could be that type of holding and guarding is done differently or not as much in modern warfare?

Being in a nice metal box is only cool if the nice metal box keeps out the weather. Weather being shaped charge jets at Mach 10, darts made out of uranium at Mach 5 and the like.

In Iraq, a Challenger 2 survived x number of hits from RPGs. Nice.

If every expendable foot soldier is carrying a throwaway top attack weapon (NLAW and the like) - then suddenly your tank is just a place to be cremated in.

Up till now, in low-intensity wars, tanks were still useful - the weapons to crack them weren't generally available to low level opponents.

But people were already asking about the definite problems in a high intensity conflict. Someone dumps 10,000 smart anti-tank munitions in the sky over your tank army..... The Americans, in the Second Gulf war, tried that on an Iraqi armoured division....

👍🏻

IshmaelZ said:

Omnium said:

Foxy said:

Omnium said:

NerysHughes said:

Malmesbury said:

NorthofStoke said:

williamglenn said:

I think Putin's domestic position will come under increasing pressure and he'll end up with the perfect storm of street protests coinciding with elite discontent. I just hope Zelensky lives to see it.

From some of the reputable news reports it appears he hasn't prepared Russian public opinion for this. I'm beginning to think that he genuinely believed there was a lot of pro-invasion support in Ukraine itself. If the Ukrainians have scattered lots of small units with modern anti-tank weapons and they have the morale to fight then Russian casualties will be large.

A Russian relative reports that the picture in Russia via Russian media is very confused.

Apparently there is no joined up narrative about what is going on - people are confused about what the Russian military is actually trying to do in Ukraine....

I doubt Putin thought that Ukraine would put up such a fight

It would not surprise me if Putin was gone within a week, he looks very rattled in his latest video.

He has made Russia a Pariah State with absolutely no gain. Even if he installs a puppet Government in Kyiv the people there will not accept it.

There were instructions yesterday to Russian media that they could only use information from the state organisations in their broadcasts.

In the world of social media, information gets through.

Yes, absolutely. I so hope Putin gets crucified by his own people.

vlad is a busted flush, and a vctim - Oh the irony - of twitter and facebook. He is fucked by vids of missiles in Kyiv/the woman with the bandaged head/Snake Island.

Time to revert to the serious matter of Pig Dog's future.

Leave Big Dog alone.

He has proven himself to be a Churchillian British Bulldog.

CarlottaVance said:

What's clear is that is that if Moscow had hopes of quick and easy gains, they were terribly optimistic. My main concern is that over time the Russian military may revert to heavy use of firepower, and this will result in immense destruction, and large civilian casualties.

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1497227242233077766?

I think that highly likely.

City fighting evens things up a lot. Plenty of cover for snipers and anti tank weapons. Use of air power and artillery highly destructive, as we saw in Syria. I think that would be the Russian plan B.

NorthofStoke said:

Mexicanpete said:

CarlottaVance said:

The view of the American public:

Views of Russia are tanking.

85% now view it unfavorably -- the highest since the end of the Cold War.

http://on.gallup.com/3BRjqP1

https://twitter.com/AaronBlake/status/1497199646699102209

They were a lot faster off the mark than some of their politicians during the Falklands too.

Nonetheless a former President, former Mayor of NY, ex-Editor of Breitbart and most Fox News presenters remain behind the eight ball.

Dare we hope that Putin's miscalculation will not only result in his own removal but also the end of Trump's malign influence?

Ironically, Trump, who got elected by telling people what they wanted to hear, is now pro-vaccine and pro-Putin when his supporters are not.

That could be costly for him.

CarlottaVance said:

The view of the American public:

Views of Russia are tanking.

85% now view it unfavorably -- the highest since the end of the Cold War.

http://on.gallup.com/3BRjqP1

https://twitter.com/AaronBlake/status/1497199646699102209

They were a lot faster off the mark than some of their politicians during the Falklands too.

72% of Republican voters now see Russian military power as a threat, Trump will have to shift course as a result

Gardenwalker said:

Russia has warned Finland, Sweden of military consequences if they seek to join NATO.

https://twitter.com/jasongroves1/status/1497222749252632583?s=21

Sadly if you are in Europe and not already in NATO unlikely you will be joining now until Putin goes

Top 3 pessimists realists; Netherlands, UK, Australia. Top 3 optimists deluded, China, Saudi, Russia (although majorities in these do believe it will never be possible to fully stop COVID):

"We will never be able to fully stop the spread of COVID-19"

85% of Brits agree with this statement, 2nd highest level after 🇳🇱 among 30 countries in a new global survey for @wef

https://ipsos.com/en-uk/covid-19-expectations-vaccination-february-2022

IshmaelZ said:

Omnium said:

Foxy said:

Omnium said:

NerysHughes said:

Malmesbury said:

NorthofStoke said:

williamglenn said:

I think Putin's domestic position will come under increasing pressure and he'll end up with the perfect storm of street protests coinciding with elite discontent. I just hope Zelensky lives to see it.

From some of the reputable news reports it appears he hasn't prepared Russian public opinion for this. I'm beginning to think that he genuinely believed there was a lot of pro-invasion support in Ukraine itself. If the Ukrainians have scattered lots of small units with modern anti-tank weapons and they have the morale to fight then Russian casualties will be large.

A Russian relative reports that the picture in Russia via Russian media is very confused.

Apparently there is no joined up narrative about what is going on - people are confused about what the Russian military is actually trying to do in Ukraine....

I doubt Putin thought that Ukraine would put up such a fight

It would not surprise me if Putin was gone within a week, he looks very rattled in his latest video.

He has made Russia a Pariah State with absolutely no gain. Even if he installs a puppet Government in Kyiv the people there will not accept it.

There were instructions yesterday to Russian media that they could only use information from the state organisations in their broadcasts.

In the world of social media, information gets through.

Yes, absolutely. I so hope Putin gets crucified by his own people.

vlad is a busted flush, and a vctim - Oh the irony - of twitter and facebook. He is fucked by vids of missiles in Kyiv/the woman with the bandaged head/Snake Island.

Time to revert to the serious matter of Pig Dog's future.

I do hope you are right but again I fear that you are writing as if the Kremlin and Russia as a whole is a logical place at the moment. Logic dictates you are right. History and experience perhaps not.

Malmesbury said:

Chelyabinsk said:

HYUFD said:

"The old concepts of fighting big tank battles on European land mass are over," Boris rather naively told Tobias Ellwood last year.

Russia has the biggest number of tanks in the world and has just launched the first land invasion of an independent sovereign state in Europe since WW2.
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1497139951552671744?s=20&t=M3ZRMfdjWd-gYHi9u8MyuQ

Boris, we need more tanks and we need to send them to Poland and the Baltic States

From the Economist:

Ukraine’s army appears to have had more opportunities to employ anti-tank weapons than many supposed. America, Britain and other European allies gave Ukraine thousands of such weapons, including long-range American Javelins and shorter-range Anglo-Swedish nlaws, over the past two months. In places, these presented serious resistance to Russian advances in the north and east. It is thought that nlaws have never been used in combat before. Video footage taken around Kharkiv appears to show damaged tanks. Ukrainian officials said that Javelins and other weapons had “neutralised” an entire column of 15 t-72 tanks in Hlukhova, in the north-west of the country close to the Russian border.

You can buy 270 nlaws for the cost of upgrading one Challenger 2.

The big question about tanks is whether the investment in heavy armour actually buys you a big gain - much as warships now have little more than spall armour around the magazines.

DK Brown relates the moment that armour died in the RN for the Admirals - they asked the design section to armour the magazines in a new carrier design against a rocket propelled 2,000lb bomb. The deign section pointed out that such a weapon could pierce armour thicker than any armour could be made (there are specific limits on face hardened armour).

Tanks are (possibly) doomed by a solar problem - the thick armour is there against septic threats. Armouring the top of a tank to the same level is impossible.

In a future war involving NATO, the Americans would be dropping https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BLU-108 by the zillion. Point defence systems on tanks might protect against that - maybe...

In surface anti-tank weapons, cheap top-attack munitions are here (NLAW) - fire and forget, the weapon flies itself *over* the tank and explodes downward.

Sweden have the Strix IR guided mortar round designed for going through tank roofs. Fired from a standard 120mm mortar.

Gardenwalker said:

Russia has warned Finland, Sweden of military consequences if they seek to join NATO.

https://twitter.com/jasongroves1/status/1497222749252632583?s=21

Maybe Putin really has gone completely mental.

That Snake Island audio. My God. Russia is dishonoured in front of the whole world. Shameful

And those brave Ukrainians. Dudes

RandallFlagg said:

Gardenwalker said:

Russia has warned Finland, Sweden of military consequences if they seek to join NATO.

https://twitter.com/jasongroves1/status/1497222749252632583?s=21

Maybe Putin really has gone completely mental.

Pants on his head, pencils up his nose.

Alistair said:

Malmesbury said:

Chelyabinsk said:

HYUFD said:

"The old concepts of fighting big tank battles on European land mass are over," Boris rather naively told Tobias Ellwood last year.

Russia has the biggest number of tanks in the world and has just launched the first land invasion of an independent sovereign state in Europe since WW2.
https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1497139951552671744?s=20&t=M3ZRMfdjWd-gYHi9u8MyuQ

Boris, we need more tanks and we need to send them to Poland and the Baltic States

From the Economist:

Ukraine’s army appears to have had more opportunities to employ anti-tank weapons than many supposed. America, Britain and other European allies gave Ukraine thousands of such weapons, including long-range American Javelins and shorter-range Anglo-Swedish nlaws, over the past two months. In places, these presented serious resistance to Russian advances in the north and east. It is thought that nlaws have never been used in combat before. Video footage taken around Kharkiv appears to show damaged tanks. Ukrainian officials said that Javelins and other weapons had “neutralised” an entire column of 15 t-72 tanks in Hlukhova, in the north-west of the country close to the Russian border.

You can buy 270 nlaws for the cost of upgrading one Challenger 2.

The big question about tanks is whether the investment in heavy armour actually buys you a big gain - much as warships now have little more than spall armour around the magazines.

DK Brown relates the moment that armour died in the RN for the Admirals - they asked the design section to armour the magazines in a new carrier design against a rocket propelled 2,000lb bomb. The deign section pointed out that such a weapon could pierce armour thicker than any armour could be made (there are specific limits on face hardened armour).

Tanks are (possibly) doomed by a solar problem - the thick armour is there against septic threats. Armouring the top of a tank to the same level is impossible.

In a future war involving NATO, the Americans would be dropping https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BLU-108 by the zillion. Point defence systems on tanks might protect against that - maybe...

In surface anti-tank weapons, cheap top-attack munitions are here (NLAW) - fire and forget, the weapon flies itself *over* the tank and explodes downward.

Sweden have the Strix IR guided mortar round designed for going through tank roofs. Fired from a standard 120mm mortar.

Big and Expensive were selling Merlin back in the day.... well, trying to....

There was a big shift in the viability of armoured vehicles when everyone got an RPG

When everyone has a top attack missile - well, there's another shift coming.

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

On balance, Italians view Russia as more of a friend than an enemy.

https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1497183887939805210?s=21

Well Italians also fought with Hitler in WW2. At least Germany has now changed tack from dictators and sees Putin as more of a threat.

The current Italian government under Draghi though will be relatively pro NATO, if Salvini or Meloni became Italian PM that could change

I don't know why, but whenever I read your posts these days I think of the Brian Glover character from Porridge.