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So the war starts – Ukraine is being invaded – politicalbetting.com

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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,383
    Aslan said:

    Unless we have successful shale, which isn't economical in the UK, new production would take 20 years. There is no advantage over nuclear plants.
    Hang on...

    Firstly, nuclear is expensive and inflexible. (And takes twenty years to bring on stream.) Plus, nuclear plants typically have lots of unscheduled downtime. Given that the UK electricity grid is going to have increasing amounts of relatively cheap but intermittent power, it's not clear how nuclear fits into the long-term mix.

    Secondly, there are lots of things that the UK could do that would help the oil & gas industry, and which would not take twenty years. The reality is that we've had a shockingly poor tax system that has discouraged investment. Most oil companies avoid investing money in the UK, because if prices rise then the government just changes the tax regime.

    The Norwegian tax regime, while theoretically tougher than the UK, is much, much more sensible. Yes, they take a lot of profit from each barrel. But they also allow oil companies to earn good returns from projects, and to spend money speculatively, knowing that the government's tax system is stable.

    And it's a mistake to think that the only meaningful oil and gas projects are new ones. There are plenty of projects that can improve production and ultimate recovery rates that have much shorter time spans.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited February 2022

    Confirmed by Ukrainian authorities. A large air assault operation with Mi-8 helicopters on Antonov International Airport in Hostomel. Interior Ministry says Russia has seized control. Very dangerous; it’s just 15 minutes west of the capital ring road.

    https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1496809143738507264

    That is quite astonishing - how the fuck do you fly you choppers over 100km of hostile terrain and seize an airport. What has the Ukrainian military being doing?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,933
    2 new polls:

    LAB: 38% (-)
    CON: 32% (+2)
    LDEM: 13% (+3)
    GRN: 7% (-3)
    REFUK: 3% (-4)

    via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 14 - 18 Feb
    Chgs. w/ 15 Feb

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1496817085237846017?s=20&t=xxqXuyWBvoC5JgFg20uBog

    and

    LAB: 40% (-2)
    CON: 33% (-)
    LDEM: 11% (+2)
    GRN: 5% (-)

    via
    @SavantaComRes
    , 18 - 20 Feb
    Chgs. w/ 05 Feb

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1496817122315579395?s=20&t=xxqXuyWBvoC5JgFg20uBog

    L-L-G share 58% and 56% respectively. At upper end of recent polls.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782
    Gary Lineker has done a tweet. Perhaps one of his best, in the circs


    ‘All those trillions spent on a so called nuclear deterrent. Madness.’

    https://twitter.com/garylineker/status/1496811715950002176?s=21
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,564
    Sean_F said:

    One example I've noticed in recent years, again the political horsehoe, is the argument that there was really nothing to choose between the Allies and Axis in WWII is no longer restricted to Neo-Nazis. It's now quite a woke argument.
    What? I've seen people say that about thr cold war, which despite a lot of bad stuff is not true, but thats crazy.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,197
    dixiedean said:

    Indeed.
    I do wonder whether Putin has begun to believe a lot of this though.
    We squabble about those issues on here. But it doesn't mean the condemnation of Russia is any less.
    We see disagreement as a strength not a weakness. It's an entirely different mindset.
    Yes, he believes it. A Greater X Nationalist believes that Unity Is Strength, Dissent Is Weakness

    That's why they love the idea of One People, One Culture, One Land, One Leader.

    Its all so... tidy.....
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,359
    kle4 said:

    Wasnt it the plan to make political union contributions opt in rather than opt out? I dont recall if it happened. I recall a lot of stink about it, but whatever the motivation it seemed blindingly obvious as being fair. (As with the idea of a low minimum for individuals, not enough choosing to do it would be no argument).
    I'd go further. Allow the union's members to vote on which parties the funds go to. If 60% vote Labour, 30% LIb Dem and 10% Conservative, split the political levy that way.

    It's a win-win. It makes it more democratic, removes a barrier for many to joining a union, and gives the union power and influence within all the parties. It also makes it worth political parties talking and listening to unions more.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    Today's generation of young people will inherit more than their parents or grandparents could ever dream of on average once they reach late middle age.

    So it is not all bad for them
    Only in cash terms. If you convert to housing they are and always will be paupers.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,296
    Great speech so far by Johnson.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,038
    Boris speaking now, calls Putin a dictator for the first time
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,359
    Good speech by Johnson.

    Especially calling Putin a dictator.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,072
    What are the chances of NATO declaring no fly zone on basis of too many civilians being slaughtered by highly equipped aggressor? More Conservative MPs are calling for this now. The chances of this in the response are not zero, surely?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035
    edited February 2022

    What Trump would have done I don't know.

    But its certainly true that Obama was weak and that Biden doesn't look any better.

    Hilary would likely have taken a harder line than either.
    You only have to read what Trump has said in the last few days to know what he would have done. He has praised Putin's aggression. Trump would love to be able to behave like Putin if he thought he could get away with it.

    My guess is that Putin will wait till his mate is back in the White House in a couple of years before making any move in the Baltic States. It will be a dark day indeed for the west if Trump and his acolytes engineer a win in 2024. He will wait for Trump to destabilise NATO
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    "Regime", "Dictator". Language is right, but get a haircut, you scruffy c*nt.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,502
    Phil said:

    OK, this one I really haven’t seen anywhere. Sounds to me like something that would be restricted to the tankie left - the ones who are so obsessed with (very real) US imperialism that they can’t see it anywhere else.
    The tankies are actually qutie sound on WWII, for obvious reasons.

    But, increasingly, you encounter the argument that the Allies were just as bad as the Nazis based upon (a) Red Army atrocities (b) the Western Allies had colonial empires and Jim Crow, (c) strategic bombing was just as bad as anything the Nazis did and (d) the Japanese were the victims of Western racism. The allegation is that nuclear weapons would never have been used against white Europeans
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,038
    Johnson: "Today in concert with our allies, we will agree a massive package of economic sanctions which will, in time, hobble the Russian economy."
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1496818466032132097?s=20&t=abxO4fGsvnAAMXy66zEF6g
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,607
    Alistair said:

    That is quite astonishing - how the fuck do you fly you choppers over 100km of hostile terrain and seize an airport. What has the Ukrainian military being doing?
    It looks like the Russians shelled / rocketed all their air defense installations first.

    It’s difficult to defend yourself against an attacker who can waltz up to your borders with 200,000 troops & all the kit of a modern army + all you can do is just sit there and watch because to attack them in the field would be an act of war.
  • Leon said:

    A classic example was all the alleged racist abuse by England fans, of the black players who missed penalties at the euro finals


    ‘Most of the racist trolling of England footballers has come from accounts based overseas, according to expert analysis.

    Around 70% of the hateful posts, images and emojis posted after the Euro 2020 defeat are said to have been from social media users outside the UK.

    The speed at which they were posted online after England’s defeat to Italy – and the way some of the accounts were set up – has led to suspicions that nefarious motives other than racism are at play.’

    https://metro.co.uk/2021/07/15/majority-of-racist-abuse-targeting-england-players-from-outside-uk-14935080/

    So easy to do. Send fake racist tweets ‘by England fans’. Get the left all angry and sneery at thick racist English people, stir the roiling culture wars, sit back and watch a country hate itself

    BLM in America is even worse, because there the Russians and Chinese can play on deep rooted and justifiable white guilt
    Agree with all of this, and of course the Russians didn't interfere in any way with the Brexit referendum at all did they?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kle4 said:

    What? I've seen people say that about thr cold war, which despite a lot of bad stuff is not true, but thats crazy.
    It's a phenomenally fruitless argument, but throw the conduct of the red army in 1945 and the US pardon of Japan's unit 731 into the mix and nobody comes out looking great.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,810
    kle4 said:

    I think that stuff goes too far and at a point should be pushed back, but broadly the sentiment is positive if the more preposterous stuff is resisted. The key is not to ignite concerns at the more extreme nonsense as if it it doesnt matter , but try not to wet one's knickers over every little move, some of which is positive, some of which is petty crap.
    Stuff which we might have considered extreme ten years ago - such as that a man can become a woman just by thinking it - has become de rigeur so quickly that by 2018 a judge ruled that not to hold this view was not worthy of respect in a democratic society.
    https://didlaw.com/the-maya-forstater-decision-what-it-means-in-the-era-of-identity-politics
    We do need to push back against the extreme nonsense. It has been hugely damaging.
  • Leon said:

    Gary Lineker has done a tweet. Perhaps one of his best, in the circs


    ‘All those trillions spent on a so called nuclear deterrent. Madness.’

    https://twitter.com/garylineker/status/1496811715950002176?s=21

    Utterly insane, not best of anything.

    Worth remembering that Ukraine had more nuclear weapons than Britain until they unilaterally disarmed. Had they not unilaterally disarmed, Putin would never have invaded.

    Good, short and simple speech by Johnson - and good to have Putin outright called a dictator.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,564

    "Regime", "Dictator". Language is right, but get a haircut, you scruffy c*nt.

    Would you cut Samson's hair?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,168

    What are the chances of NATO declaring no fly zone on basis of too many civilians being slaughtered by highly equipped aggressor? More Conservative MPs are calling for this now. The chances of this in the response are not zero, surely?

    If we’re prepared to shoot down Russian jets, sure.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,072
    edited February 2022
    “We cannot just look away” therefore I will get my pea shooter out again, and this time extra peas. And allies will all pea shoot in unison.

    Are there any sanctions that can be announced that won’t look extremely weak now? 🤷‍♀️
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,257

    As long as the political donations are not optional it is exactly the same thing. But I agree if it were made optional (I actually thought they already were) then that would make a difference.
    Yep, appears I was out of date on that - but opt out rather than opt in is common? so it comes down to how obvious and easy it is to opt out.

    (I'm not a union member)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,038
    IshmaelZ said:

    Only in cash terms. If you convert to housing they are and always will be paupers.
    Most people are still property owners by 39 and if they inherit that money can also be used to buy property or bigger property
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,800

    Wokeness is not a sign of weakness but of a society that has the self-confidence to examine and attempt to correct its flaws. You won't see Wokeness in Russia and China not because they are strong but because they are weak - countries ruled by fear whose leaders are brittle power-hungry despots terrified of free debate and the noisy mess of democratic self-government. The day that Western societies stop having thses kind of debates is the day that Putin wins.
    Yes, the notion that our efforts, such as they are, towards racial and gender equality is the geopolitical equivalent of Samson letting Delilah at his lustrous locks is some of the softest headed hogwash I have ever heard.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,709
    Alistair said:

    That is quite astonishing - how the fuck do you fly you choppers over 100km of hostile terrain and seize an airport. What has the Ukrainian military being doing?
    When you have air superiority it's far from impossible.
    Russia has ten times Ukraine's air assets, and Ukraine does not have any modern ground to air defence system.
    Plus the bulk of Ukraine's forces are in the east.

    There was extensive bombardment of military assets before this too place, too.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    OllyT said:

    You only have to read what Trump has said in the last few days to know what he would have done. He has praised Putin's aggression. Trump would love to be able to behave like Putin if he thought he could get away with it.

    My guess is that Putin will wait till his mate is back in the White House in a couple of years before making any move in the Baltic States. It will be a dark day indeed for the west if Trump and his acolytes engineer a win in 2024
    Putin had four years to invade on Trump's watch.

    He did not.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,939

    Yes, he believes it. A Greater X Nationalist believes that Unity Is Strength, Dissent Is Weakness

    That's why they love the idea of One People, One Culture, One Land, One Leader.

    Its all so... tidy.....
    Of course. I was more wondering if he believes we believe that too?
    That the West has been fundamentally weakened by squabbling over woke, Brexit and BLM.
    Cos that's an entirely different level of delusion.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,564
    edited February 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    It's a phenomenally fruitless argument, but throw the conduct of the red army in 1945 and the US pardon of Japan's unit 731 into the mix and nobody comes out looking great.
    Don't forget Dresden, that always gets mentioned.

    Nevertheless, whilst war is hell, that one remains easier than most to moralise about.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    As long as the political donations are not optional it is exactly the same thing. But I agree if it were made optional (I actually thought they already were) then that would make a difference.
    I believe they are opt-out. They need to be opt-in.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,383

    Some people think Russia is much wealthier, and much more powerful than it really is.

    The only reason Russia has any significant military is because Putin has been putting as much of its economy as it can into its Military Industrial Complex. The economy itself, besides commodities, is utterly and royally fucked.

    The Russian economy is worth less than Italy's. We wouldn't think the whole of the western world should be afraid of Italy.

    A hostile occupation of Ukraine will not end well, and Russia is screwed especially as the world moves away from hydrocarbons.

    Putin's Russia is as doomed as his beloved USSR.
    I broadly agree with this.

    Russia is completely dependent on the export of raw materials, and in particular energy. And Russia faces two very serious long-term threats:

    The rise of renewables and electric cars means less need for oil.

    And the growth of LNG means that there are many more places from which one can buy natural gas.

    In the short term, though, Russia actually profits from the war, because it has sent the cost of oil skyrocketing.
  • Relentless optimist that I am if Putin succeeds with his invasion of Ukraine then where will he go next?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited February 2022

    What are the chances of NATO declaring no fly zone on basis of too many civilians being slaughtered by highly equipped aggressor? More Conservative MPs are calling for this now. The chances of this in the response are not zero, surely?

    The West doesn't want to self-destruct. That won't get through any processes of NATO agreement.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Relentless optimist that I am if Putin succeeds with his invasion of Ukraine then where will he go next?

    Poland is traditional
  • Enthusiasts for unilateral nuclear disarmament as well.

    And for breaking up NATO's second strongest member.
    I am Burgessian and I approve this message.



    When Scotland becomes the xth republic of the Greater Oceania Co-Prosperity Sphere the author of this is definitely going to the Gulag for crimes against Photoshop.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,550
    MISTY said:

    Putin had four years to invade on Trump's watch.

    He did not.
    He had four years to build his military capability without a squeak from the President of the US.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Relentless optimist that I am if Putin succeeds with his invasion of Ukraine then where will he go next?

    Georgia.

    Toss up whether the country or the US state - I'm sure Kemp would be happy to invite him in.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,955

    Utterly insane, not best of anything.

    Worth remembering that Ukraine had more nuclear weapons than Britain until they unilaterally disarmed. Had they not unilaterally disarmed, Putin would never have invaded.

    Good, short and simple speech by Johnson - and good to have Putin outright called a dictator.
    Taking the long view, the most chilling outcome of all of this has to be the proliferation of nuclear weapons. If you have them, why would you give them up? If you don't have them, why would you trust a western nuclear power to go to war on your behalf, or guarantee your territorial integrity? The early conclusion from this horrible attack from Putin is that if you don't have nukes, start building them.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,810

    Relentless optimist that I am if Putin succeeds with his invasion of Ukraine then where will he go next?

    I think he's playing join the dots. He wants Ukraine to join up to Transdnistria (sp?).
    So - Lithuania, to join up to Kaliningrad. (I'm inferring everyone now pretty much sees Belarus as part of Putin's empire).
    It would be very helpful for him strategically to have an ice-free Baltic port (that isn't in an exclave).
    In reality, all the Baltics, because why not?
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    MISTY said:


    You just don't like to be confronted with the utter sixth form debating society folly of your intellectual positions of the last few years. But then again, I guess people don't.

    I think Putin might, in the long term, be doing the West a favour. Making us realise what's important.

    I will give you a clue. It isn't covid variants, and it isn't climate change. Though I suppose living in a Russian prison camp would, ostensibly, reduce your personal carbon footprint.


    You are correct about how the situation in Ukraine draws out the futility of how we identify 'threats'. We have catastrophically underestimated the risk of military conflict and nuclear war, whilst overestimating other risks to the point of irrationality.
  • Relentless optimist that I am if Putin succeeds with his invasion of Ukraine then where will he go next?

    We have to deter him from going further.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,072

    Relentless optimist that I am if Putin succeeds with his invasion of Ukraine then where will he go next?

    😢 Putin has broken our world, and extinguished all joy and optimism.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MISTY said:

    Putin had four years to invade on Trump's watch.

    He did not.
    Yes, fit in that Trump-apologism. That's what we've all been waiting for.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,154

    Relentless optimist that I am if Putin succeeds with his invasion of Ukraine then where will he go next?

    Hopefully China.

    At least we will know if he’s mad or just an evil prick.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,072
    Sean_F said:

    Lineker's a twat.
    As a supporter of nuclear deterrent the easy answer is it doesn’t actually cost that much.
  • Great speech so far by Johnson.

    For those who missed it:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1496818439222087684

    As my granny would opine “fine words butter no parsnips”

    Let’s see what gets done.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,319

    What are the chances of NATO declaring no fly zone on basis of too many civilians being slaughtered by highly equipped aggressor? More Conservative MPs are calling for this now. The chances of this in the response are not zero, surely?

    Zero percent chance because that's a shooting war with Russia.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,197
    dixiedean said:

    Of course. I was more wondering if he believes we believe that too?
    That the West has been fundamentally weakened by squabbling over woke, Brexit and BLM.
    Cos that's an entirely different level of delusion.
    He believes it to be true - it was a standard trope in the Goode Olde Days in the USSR that dissidents need to oppressed, to protect The State (and hence The People) from.... dissent.

    This was in his youth. The best days of his life. When he was Young and Strong. And Russia was Strong. And all the muscly Russian men looked at each other in the steam room.....
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited February 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    Are you really telling me with a straight face that the US response to invasion of Ukraine would have been tougher if Trump had been in charge?

    Russia has had an amazing 18 months financially because Covid killed oil and gas drilling, particularly in the US. That sent resources prices through the roof, and gave Putin the financial breathing room to invade. If oil prices had been $30 and gas prices $5, then Russia would not have had the financial wherewithal.
    Absolutely. This invasion, and the whole lead-up to it, has clearly been long-planned, and it strikes me as very likely therefore that it's been planned with the assumption that Trump would be in place during it. Look at his comments yesterday praising Putin for his "military genius", for instance.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161
    dixiedean said:

    Spot on.
    Not starting now, even on an experimental basis is bonkers.
    It's even predictable. Unlike wind or solar.
    Wind and solar power is predictable. Weather forecasts are improving all the time.

    Tidal is more reliable though.
  • Mr. F, Lineker's comment is especially stupid given a nuclear power has just invaded a nation that gave up its nukes, in exchange for borders guaranteed by countries including said invader.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,296

    Relentless optimist that I am if Putin succeeds with his invasion of Ukraine then where will he go next?

    Surely the Baltic States are easy pickings, NATO or not. Then Gotland.

    Tobias Elwood had Ukraine right. Our (the West) hand wringing "but Ukraine isn't in NATO" is such an error.

    James Cleverly was so hamstrung on 5Live. We have had at least eight years to plan. Have we planned?
  • We have to deter him from going further.
    That’s what I was thinking

    Time to fast track those nations in to NATO.

    Send in a few armoured and mechanised infantry divisions there.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,835
    Leon said:

    I’m not even sure what point he is trying to make, or why. Or anything

    It seems to be a pure example of clueless, irrelevant virtue-signalling. A vain, silly man sees a war and decides to get loads of likes by trotting out vapid anti-nuke sentiment, apparently unaware of how bitterly misguided the statement is, in this situation
    He seems to think that our nuclear deterrent is supposed to be universal. I suspect he's just grasping for a way to make it all about us and our irrelevance.

    Robert Peston does the same here with this crass tweet where the "grim reality" is not the human suffering, but the idea that Britain might not have a seat at the table:

    @Peston
    Prime minister will soon make an address to the nation on the crisis in Ukraine. But the grim reality is that the important decisions will be taken by Washington and the Berlin/Paris axis

    https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1496781653347389440
  • Dura_Ace said:

    My only ever pb.com ban was for insulting Alex Salmond.
    You've only had the one ban?!
    I'm genuinely surprised, and I have to say a little disappointed..
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,624
    Leon said:

    Gary Lineker has done a tweet. Perhaps one of his best, in the circs


    ‘All those trillions spent on a so called nuclear deterrent. Madness.’

    https://twitter.com/garylineker/status/1496811715950002176?s=21

    Ukraine has no such deterrent
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,810
    edited February 2022
    kinabalu said:

    Yes, the notion that our efforts, such as they are, towards racial and gender equality is the geopolitical equivalent of Samson letting Delilah at his lustrous locks is some of the softest headed hogwash I have ever heard.
    I'm sure we have more in common in our views than we think here.
    I think very few people object to honest attempts to ensure race or gender is not a barrier to opportunity. There is much to be applauded there in what we in the west have achieved in the last generation.
    What we war-on-wokers object to is lunacy like (with apologies for reposting from an earlier comment) this sort of thing, for example, which seems to be rather more in the interests of our enemies than it is of us:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/02/24/britains-spies-told-check-white-privilege-stop-saying-manpower/
    "In a section on inclusive language, it says: "In national security, look out for words and phrases, such as 'strong' or 'grip', that reinforce the dominant cultural patterns. Avoid jargon, hierarchy or gender biases."

    Another says: "Use gender-neutral language to reflect people's diversity and reduce stereotypes and assumptions, for example about job roles and functions which need not be gender-defined."

    A Whitehall spokesman said the guidance would be included in core training. "They are fundamental to the national security of the UK," they added. "
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,624

    Mr. F, Lineker's comment is especially stupid given a nuclear power has just invaded a nation that gave up its nukes, in exchange for borders guaranteed by countries including said invader.

    Exactly. He's just posting crap for likes and retweets and to have his ego stroked.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,197

    As a supporter of nuclear deterrent the easy answer is it doesn’t actually cost that much.
    Interestingly, Trident is one of the few times military procurement has actually achieved a cost reduction.

    Because Thatcher insisted that UK Trident was a completely identical missile to the US ones, the UK buy triggered a clause in the contract that LockMart had negotiated with the US Navy - buy more than X, and get a discount across the whole buy. They'd actually negotiated that to try and get the US Congress and Senate to back a bigger US buy.

    In fact they were kind of upset that it was triggered by an export deal.

    So the US Navy saved some billions on their missiles. And we got ours a bit cheaper as well.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536
    Lineker has found himself trying to dig himself out of a hole:

    https://twitter.com/GaryLineker/with_replies
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,624

    😢 Putin has broken our world, and extinguished all joy and optimism.
    We need a twitterstorm at 7PM tonight. #PUTINSTOP
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,072
    HYUFD said:

    Johnson: "Today in concert with our allies, we will agree a massive package of economic sanctions which will, in time, hobble the Russian economy."
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1496818466032132097?s=20&t=abxO4fGsvnAAMXy66zEF6g

    Is it just me, but I didn’t like that address at all.

    “ And I say to the Ukrainians - in this moment of agony we are with you we are praying for you and your families and we are on your side. And if the months ahead are grim, and the flame of freedom burns low, I know that it will blaze bright again in Ukraine because, for all his bombs and tanks and missiles, I don’t believe that the Russian dictator will ever subdue the national feeling of the Ukrainians and their passionate belief that their country should be free.”

    Boris own handcrafted Churchillian moment? We shall fight them with our prayers, as we lay on our beaches this summer.

    Biggest baddest sanction package ever (yeah right) looks so weak doesn’t it, compared to Putin’s military mission statement “kill all Ukrainian Nazi’s.” And the horrors inflicted on everyday people of Ukraine 😕
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,359
    Dura_Ace said:

    Zero percent chance because that's a shooting war with Russia.
    The shooting war's already been started.

    By Russia.

    There is a non-negligible chance that 'incidents' will occur that drag neighbouring countries in. Indeed, Putin might be counting on that.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,466

    That’s what I was thinking

    Time to fast track those nations in to NATO.

    Send in a few armoured and mechanised infantry divisions there.
    a few is all that the UK and European members have.... the UK has 1 deployable division and even that is tenuous.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    rcs1000 said:

    Are you really telling me with a straight face that the US response to invasion of Ukraine would have been tougher if Trump had been in charge?

    Russia has had an amazing 18 months financially because Covid killed oil and gas drilling, particularly in the US. That sent resources prices through the roof, and gave Putin the financial breathing room to invade. If oil prices had been $30 and gas prices $5, then Russia would not have had the financial wherewithal.

    It was oil and gas prices, not Trump, that prevented an invasion under his watch.
    Putin did not invade whilst Trump was President. He had four years to do it. Much of the American media claimed Trump was in Putin's pocket, surely all he had to do was ask. And in truth oil prices have only spiked very recently, up until the last few months the price has been, meh.

    Trump merely pointed out that Putin was clever. Looking at what's gone on, are you seriously claiming he isn't? his assessment of where the West is is pretty spot on. No resources for a fight and no stomach either.

    Our governments have fatally underestimated Putin. Trump isn't making that mistake, at least.
  • a few is all that the UK and European members have.... the UK has 1 deployable division and even that is tenuous.
    As ever I’m hoping the Yanks come to Europe’s rescue again.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,072

    You've only had the one ban?!
    I'm genuinely surprised, and I have to say a little disappointed..
    Should I be wearing my ban with pride?
  • a few is all that the UK and European members have.... the UK has 1 deployable division and even that is tenuous.
    We have the Scots Guards, motto 'We Kicked the Tsar's Arse'. Surely they're worth a couple of Russian divisions?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,383

    Wind and solar power is predictable. Weather forecasts are improving all the time.

    Tidal is more reliable though.
    It is perfectly possible, however, to have sustained periods in winter when it's cloudy and the wind isn't blowing. Having better energy storage options (CAES) would help, as would other renewables options like tidal.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    Surely the Baltic States are easy pickings, NATO or not. Then Gotland.

    Tobias Elwood had Ukraine right. Our (the West) hand wringing "but Ukraine isn't in NATO" is such an error.

    James Cleverly was so hamstrung on 5Live. We have had at least eight years to plan. Have we planned?
    We were obsessed with climate change and covid, to the mighty applause of yourself and most people on here.

    If anybody had pointed out that we needed to beef up security in the east and maybe not spend quite so much on furlough, you would have sh8t your nappy.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    .
    Taz said:

    Exactly. He's just posting crap for likes and retweets and to have his ego stroked.
    You mean, he's still Gary Lineker...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,563

    As ever I’m hoping the Yanks come to Europe’s rescue again.
    They won't if Trump's back in power.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,709
    Good article by Applebaum.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/ukraine-identity-russia-patriotism/622902/

    Ukraine is not going to go away even if it is completely overrun by the fascist in Moscow.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536

    They won't if Trump's back in power.
    I hate to tell you this, but he won't be president for nearly three years. It's all on Biden.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,626
    kle4 said:

    Don't forget Dresden, that always gets mentioned.

    Nevertheless, whilst war is hell, that one remains easier than most to moralise about.
    Dresden is a stupid argument. If he could, Harris would have 'done a Dresden' every night until the war was won. He wanted to prove that you could win the war with bombing alone, so that no ground troops would die.
  • Wind and solar power is predictable. Weather forecasts are improving all the time.

    Tidal is more reliable though.
    Accurately predictable to approximately 48 hours, in other words, unpredictable in practice.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,072

    Surely the Baltic States are easy pickings, NATO or not. Then Gotland.

    Tobias Elwood had Ukraine right. Our (the West) hand wringing "but Ukraine isn't in NATO" is such an error.

    James Cleverly was so hamstrung on 5Live. We have had at least eight years to plan. Have we planned?
    Guto Hari has tweeted the PM is singing again.

    “It started with a kiss. Never imagined it would come to this.”

    So is it political failure? Intelligence failure? Capitalism failure?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,709
    I don’t want to believe this video is real, but it is being posted by all mainstream channels. Apparently in Vyshgorod now - just outside Kyiv
    https://twitter.com/juliaskripkaser/status/1496820688770027527
  • The Fédération internationale de ski (FIS) is allowing the competitions in Russia’s Sunny Valley and Jaroslavl to go ahead. Bunch of shit-for-brains running sport if you ask me.

    https://www.fis-ski.com/DB/general/event-details.html?sectorcode=FS&eventid=47058&seasoncode=2021
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,161

    All this bluster from NATO, the west etc

    Just meaningless bluster. Putin has won

    The Ukrainian army is having more success in holding the Russians back at a few points then I had expected. This isn't over yet.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,359

    Is it just me, but I didn’t like that address at all.

    “ And I say to the Ukrainians - in this moment of agony we are with you we are praying for you and your families and we are on your side. And if the months ahead are grim, and the flame of freedom burns low, I know that it will blaze bright again in Ukraine because, for all his bombs and tanks and missiles, I don’t believe that the Russian dictator will ever subdue the national feeling of the Ukrainians and their passionate belief that their country should be free.”

    Boris own handcrafted Churchillian moment? We shall fight them with our prayers, as we lay on our beaches this summer.

    Biggest baddest sanction package ever (yeah right) looks so weak doesn’t it, compared to Putin’s military mission statement “kill all Ukrainian Nazi’s.” And the horrors inflicted on everyday people of Ukraine 😕
    Sounds like you object more to the messenger than the message?
  • We have the Scots Guards, motto 'We Kicked the Tsar's Arse'. Surely they're worth a couple of Russian divisions?
    I see you are trolling for Putin today. Supporting the world's dictators, in the not very noble tradition of Scottish Nationalism
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,197

    The Ukrainian army is having more success in holding the Russians back at a few points then I had expected. This isn't over yet.
    Where are you hearing that?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,296
    MISTY said:

    We were obsessed with climate change and covid, to the mighty applause of yourself and most people on here.

    If anybody had pointed out that we needed to beef up security in the east and maybe not spend quite so much on furlough, you would have sh8t your nappy.
    When have I been guilty of anything you have accused me of in your post?

    I have agreed with Tobias Elwood, only to be told, "but Ukraine are not a NATO member state, we have to abide by the Minsk Accord".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,038

    I see you are trolling for Putin today. Supporting the world's dictators, in the not very noble tradition of Scottish Nationalism
    Scottish Nationalists would generally prefer to be a colony of Putin's Russia than in the UK, so no surprise
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,296

    They won't if Trump's back in power.
    Surely Trump has shot his bolt after his pro-Putin performance this week.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035
    MISTY said:

    Putin had four years to invade on Trump's watch.

    He did not.
    Signifies nothing. The rise of Trump has divided and weakened the US significantly. Putin will be very keen on him continuing his work, preferably from the position of President again.
  • As I'm not old enough to remember, how did the sporting embargo of apartheid South Africa get agreed?

    Is it possible to do the same with Russia?

    Obviously not via the UNSC but via other means?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,664
    edited February 2022

    As I'm not old enough to remember, how did the sporting embargo of apartheid South Africa get agreed?

    Is it possible to do the same with Russia?

    Obviously not via the UNSC but via other means?

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gleneagles_Agreement

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sporting_boycott_of_South_Africa_during_the_apartheid_era
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536
    new thread
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,072
    TimS said:

    2 new polls:

    LAB: 38% (-)
    CON: 32% (+2)
    LDEM: 13% (+3)
    GRN: 7% (-3)
    REFUK: 3% (-4)

    via
    @FindoutnowUK
    , 14 - 18 Feb
    Chgs. w/ 15 Feb

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1496817085237846017?s=20&t=xxqXuyWBvoC5JgFg20uBog

    and

    LAB: 40% (-2)
    CON: 33% (-)
    LDEM: 11% (+2)
    GRN: 5% (-)

    via
    @SavantaComRes
    , 18 - 20 Feb
    Chgs. w/ 05 Feb

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1496817122315579395?s=20&t=xxqXuyWBvoC5JgFg20uBog

    L-L-G share 58% and 56% respectively. At upper end of recent polls.

    Fantastic polls for Lib Dems. 👍🏻

    Now lock Vince in a wardrobe before he ruins this surge.
This discussion has been closed.