I listened to some kind of panel event on Twitter, with some decent experts.
Current sanctions against Russia are around 10-15% of what the West could do. Iran for example is more like 95%. At that level, there’s no doubt Putin would be hurt - although he may be willing to grin and bear it.
In return Russia would likely boost its cyber disruption activities, refuse air traffic flyovers, and perhaps (as threatened) try to damage underwater comms links between US and Europe.
As for the invasion, it’s expected that current attempts to secure the airspace (by bombing Ukrainian airfields and missile facilities) is expected to take 48-72 hours. After that, Russia’s main objective is to regime change in Kiev.
Analysts disagree, but it is not believed that Russia necessarily has the manpower to occupy Ukraine in totality.
"God rot great men. Vladimir Putin, by any reasonable historical measurement, is a great man. He rose from the ruins of the Soviet system and the scale of his ambition to rewrite world power politics is still not fully appreciated by Westerners.
If he succeeds, as he may well, all of Europe will be changed. First the devouring of eastern Ukrainian statelets; next, Kyiv; and beyond that, look to the Balkans, the Baltics and much more. Yes, the risks are huge. This may well involve, as Boris Johnson put it, the biggest war in Europe since 1945.
But the prize! Countries and cultures we have learned to treat as near neighbours – the Baltics, Poland, Romania as well as Ukraine – would eventually be tugged into the choke of Muscovite authoritarianism. Westerners still can’t quite believe this because the scale of Putin’s ambition is beyond our cautious, sceptical, postmodern understanding. Putin is a Napoleonic figure, a giant from our pasts.
So, God rot him. Like the Corsican, he’d reshape his world using, for fuel, the blood of decent folk going about ordinary lives. On television we’ve seen them, talking and laughing in their familiar anoraks and bobble-hats, pushing prams, lugging shopping or with children balanced on their shoulders. For them, Putin has prepared a world of grief, disappointment and loneliness; he is a great man."
"God rot great men. Vladimir Putin, by any reasonable historical measurement, is a great man. He rose from the ruins of the Soviet system and the scale of his ambition to rewrite world power politics is still not fully appreciated by Westerners.
If he succeeds, as he may well, all of Europe will be changed. First the devouring of eastern Ukrainian statelets; next, Kyiv; and beyond that, look to the Balkans, the Baltics and much more. Yes, the risks are huge. This may well involve, as Boris Johnson put it, the biggest war in Europe since 1945.
But the prize! Countries and cultures we have learned to treat as near neighbours – the Baltics, Poland, Romania as well as Ukraine – would eventually be tugged into the choke of Muscovite authoritarianism. Westerners still can’t quite believe this because the scale of Putin’s ambition is beyond our cautious, sceptical, postmodern understanding. Putin is a Napoleonic figure, a giant from our pasts.
So, God rot him. Like the Corsican, he’d reshape his world using, for fuel, the blood of decent folk going about ordinary lives. On television we’ve seen them, talking and laughing in their familiar anoraks and bobble-hats, pushing prams, lugging shopping or with children balanced on their shoulders. For them, Putin has prepared a world of grief, disappointment and loneliness; he is a great man."
I dare say, part of our problem is that common room essays pass as geopolitical analysis in the UK bien pensant.
"God rot great men. Vladimir Putin, by any reasonable historical measurement, is a great man. He rose from the ruins of the Soviet system and the scale of his ambition to rewrite world power politics is still not fully appreciated by Westerners.
If he succeeds, as he may well, all of Europe will be changed. First the devouring of eastern Ukrainian statelets; next, Kyiv; and beyond that, look to the Balkans, the Baltics and much more. Yes, the risks are huge. This may well involve, as Boris Johnson put it, the biggest war in Europe since 1945.
But the prize! Countries and cultures we have learned to treat as near neighbours – the Baltics, Poland, Romania as well as Ukraine – would eventually be tugged into the choke of Muscovite authoritarianism. Westerners still can’t quite believe this because the scale of Putin’s ambition is beyond our cautious, sceptical, postmodern understanding. Putin is a Napoleonic figure, a giant from our pasts.
So, God rot him. Like the Corsican, he’d reshape his world using, for fuel, the blood of decent folk going about ordinary lives. On television we’ve seen them, talking and laughing in their familiar anoraks and bobble-hats, pushing prams, lugging shopping or with children balanced on their shoulders. For them, Putin has prepared a world of grief, disappointment and loneliness; he is a great man."
I dare say, part of our problem is that common room essays pass as geopolitical analysis in the UK bien pensant.
A larger part of our problem is people excusing clear evil.
"God rot great men. Vladimir Putin, by any reasonable historical measurement, is a great man. He rose from the ruins of the Soviet system and the scale of his ambition to rewrite world power politics is still not fully appreciated by Westerners.
If he succeeds, as he may well, all of Europe will be changed. First the devouring of eastern Ukrainian statelets; next, Kyiv; and beyond that, look to the Balkans, the Baltics and much more. Yes, the risks are huge. This may well involve, as Boris Johnson put it, the biggest war in Europe since 1945.
But the prize! Countries and cultures we have learned to treat as near neighbours – the Baltics, Poland, Romania as well as Ukraine – would eventually be tugged into the choke of Muscovite authoritarianism. Westerners still can’t quite believe this because the scale of Putin’s ambition is beyond our cautious, sceptical, postmodern understanding. Putin is a Napoleonic figure, a giant from our pasts.
So, God rot him. Like the Corsican, he’d reshape his world using, for fuel, the blood of decent folk going about ordinary lives. On television we’ve seen them, talking and laughing in their familiar anoraks and bobble-hats, pushing prams, lugging shopping or with children balanced on their shoulders. For them, Putin has prepared a world of grief, disappointment and loneliness; he is a great man."
I dare say, part of our problem is that common room essays pass as geopolitical analysis in the UK bien pensant.
A larger part of our problem is people excusing clear evil.
Oh no not this again. Who exactly are you talking about?
I listened to some kind of panel event on Twitter, with some decent experts.
Current sanctions against Russia are around 10-15% of what the West could do. Iran for example is more like 95%. At that level, there’s no doubt Putin would be hurt - although he may be willing to grin and bear it.
In return Russia would likely boost its cyber disruption activities, refuse air traffic flyovers, and perhaps (as threatened) try to damage underwater comms links between US and Europe.
As for the invasion, it’s expected that current attempts to secure the airspace (by bombing Ukrainian airfields and missile facilities) is expected to take 48-72 hours. After that, Russia’s main objective is to regime change in Kiev.
Analysts disagree, but it is not believed that Russia necessarily has the manpower to occupy Ukraine in totality.
Sanctions alone won't work. Putin will already have factored likely sanctions into his thinking.
"God rot great men. Vladimir Putin, by any reasonable historical measurement, is a great man. He rose from the ruins of the Soviet system and the scale of his ambition to rewrite world power politics is still not fully appreciated by Westerners.
If he succeeds, as he may well, all of Europe will be changed. First the devouring of eastern Ukrainian statelets; next, Kyiv; and beyond that, look to the Balkans, the Baltics and much more. Yes, the risks are huge. This may well involve, as Boris Johnson put it, the biggest war in Europe since 1945.
But the prize! Countries and cultures we have learned to treat as near neighbours – the Baltics, Poland, Romania as well as Ukraine – would eventually be tugged into the choke of Muscovite authoritarianism. Westerners still can’t quite believe this because the scale of Putin’s ambition is beyond our cautious, sceptical, postmodern understanding. Putin is a Napoleonic figure, a giant from our pasts.
So, God rot him. Like the Corsican, he’d reshape his world using, for fuel, the blood of decent folk going about ordinary lives. On television we’ve seen them, talking and laughing in their familiar anoraks and bobble-hats, pushing prams, lugging shopping or with children balanced on their shoulders. For them, Putin has prepared a world of grief, disappointment and loneliness; he is a great man."
I dare say, part of our problem is that common room essays pass as geopolitical analysis in the UK bien pensant.
A larger part of our problem is people excusing clear evil.
Oh no not this again. Who exactly are you talking about?
Anyone who tries to lay any blame for Russian aggression on our doorstep. Putin has repeatedly attacked neighbouring states and our own country. There is no excusing his actions.
"God rot great men. Vladimir Putin, by any reasonable historical measurement, is a great man. He rose from the ruins of the Soviet system and the scale of his ambition to rewrite world power politics is still not fully appreciated by Westerners.
If he succeeds, as he may well, all of Europe will be changed. First the devouring of eastern Ukrainian statelets; next, Kyiv; and beyond that, look to the Balkans, the Baltics and much more. Yes, the risks are huge. This may well involve, as Boris Johnson put it, the biggest war in Europe since 1945.
But the prize! Countries and cultures we have learned to treat as near neighbours – the Baltics, Poland, Romania as well as Ukraine – would eventually be tugged into the choke of Muscovite authoritarianism. Westerners still can’t quite believe this because the scale of Putin’s ambition is beyond our cautious, sceptical, postmodern understanding. Putin is a Napoleonic figure, a giant from our pasts.
So, God rot him. Like the Corsican, he’d reshape his world using, for fuel, the blood of decent folk going about ordinary lives. On television we’ve seen them, talking and laughing in their familiar anoraks and bobble-hats, pushing prams, lugging shopping or with children balanced on their shoulders. For them, Putin has prepared a world of grief, disappointment and loneliness; he is a great man."
I dare say, part of our problem is that common room essays pass as geopolitical analysis in the UK bien pensant.
A larger part of our problem is people excusing clear evil.
Oh no not this again. Who exactly are you talking about?
Anyone who tries to lay any blame for Russian aggression on our doorstep. Putin has repeatedly attacked neighbouring states and our own country. There is no excusing his actions.
The only people I see excusing his action are alt-righters like Trump and Farage, and hard-letters like the Stop the Warrers.
Trump is still at it, by the way. Even last night. The others may be sensible enough to keep their mouths shut.
"God rot great men. Vladimir Putin, by any reasonable historical measurement, is a great man. He rose from the ruins of the Soviet system and the scale of his ambition to rewrite world power politics is still not fully appreciated by Westerners.
If he succeeds, as he may well, all of Europe will be changed. First the devouring of eastern Ukrainian statelets; next, Kyiv; and beyond that, look to the Balkans, the Baltics and much more. Yes, the risks are huge. This may well involve, as Boris Johnson put it, the biggest war in Europe since 1945.
But the prize! Countries and cultures we have learned to treat as near neighbours – the Baltics, Poland, Romania as well as Ukraine – would eventually be tugged into the choke of Muscovite authoritarianism. Westerners still can’t quite believe this because the scale of Putin’s ambition is beyond our cautious, sceptical, postmodern understanding. Putin is a Napoleonic figure, a giant from our pasts.
So, God rot him. Like the Corsican, he’d reshape his world using, for fuel, the blood of decent folk going about ordinary lives. On television we’ve seen them, talking and laughing in their familiar anoraks and bobble-hats, pushing prams, lugging shopping or with children balanced on their shoulders. For them, Putin has prepared a world of grief, disappointment and loneliness; he is a great man."
I dare say, part of our problem is that common room essays pass as geopolitical analysis in the UK bien pensant.
A larger part of our problem is people excusing clear evil.
Oh no not this again. Who exactly are you talking about?
Anyone who tries to lay any blame for Russian aggression on our doorstep. Putin has repeatedly attacked neighbouring states and our own country. There is no excusing his actions.
Trump is still at it, by the way. Even last night. The others may be sensible enough to keep their mouths shut.
Which will surely put paid to his chances of the GOP nomination?
"God rot great men. Vladimir Putin, by any reasonable historical measurement, is a great man. He rose from the ruins of the Soviet system and the scale of his ambition to rewrite world power politics is still not fully appreciated by Westerners.
If he succeeds, as he may well, all of Europe will be changed. First the devouring of eastern Ukrainian statelets; next, Kyiv; and beyond that, look to the Balkans, the Baltics and much more. Yes, the risks are huge. This may well involve, as Boris Johnson put it, the biggest war in Europe since 1945.
But the prize! Countries and cultures we have learned to treat as near neighbours – the Baltics, Poland, Romania as well as Ukraine – would eventually be tugged into the choke of Muscovite authoritarianism. Westerners still can’t quite believe this because the scale of Putin’s ambition is beyond our cautious, sceptical, postmodern understanding. Putin is a Napoleonic figure, a giant from our pasts.
So, God rot him. Like the Corsican, he’d reshape his world using, for fuel, the blood of decent folk going about ordinary lives. On television we’ve seen them, talking and laughing in their familiar anoraks and bobble-hats, pushing prams, lugging shopping or with children balanced on their shoulders. For them, Putin has prepared a world of grief, disappointment and loneliness; he is a great man."
I dare say, part of our problem is that common room essays pass as geopolitical analysis in the UK bien pensant.
A larger part of our problem is people excusing clear evil.
Oh no not this again. Who exactly are you talking about?
Anyone who tries to lay any blame for Russian aggression on our doorstep. Putin has repeatedly attacked neighbouring states and our own country. There is no excusing his actions.
Trump is still at it, by the way. Even last night. The others may be sensible enough to keep their mouths shut.
Which will surely put paid to his chances of the GOP nomination?
You’d hope! But the Republicans are so fucked, who knows?
We all knew it was coming, just a question of when.
Are sanctions enough? It takes time to feel the pain of them even if they at the highest level possible.
Russia is already under heavy sanctions.
No one should describe these as heavy.
p.s. I get the anger but (hoho) please spare us the self-righteous moralising.
The world is full of evil people. Putin happens to be one of the worst. There are many others. And (teehee) yes we in the west did contribute to this.
Avoid being over-simplistic. Like that kind of sentence.
"self-righteous moralising."
Not really. Russia's path has been clear for years. The indications have all been there. The people who need to feel shame are those who argued that Russia would not do this, that it was somehow our fault. Those who argued against taking firmer actions after Georgia. After Donbass. After Salisbury. etc, etc.
The longer we've left it, the harder it gets to persuade Russia onto a peaceful course.
I'm old enough to remember the Cold War, as are many on here I think. We lived with the distant shadow of nuclear war and 3-minute warnings.
Putin is crazed enough, and has enough of a Napoleon complex, to press the button.
That just sounds like an excuse to let Putin do what he wants. Because if he is crazed enough to do it now, he'll be crazed enough to do it when he takes Poland. Or Romania. Or anywhere else. It's an argument for allowing evil to spread.
Think the markets will take a real dive this morning. First signs in the Far East where they're down c. 3% and the NASDAQ took a big hit in late trading.
Some of this was factored in but like myself, many traders thought Putin would hold back at the separatist states.
We all knew it was coming, just a question of when.
Are sanctions enough? It takes time to feel the pain of them even if they at the highest level possible.
Russia is already under heavy sanctions.
No one should describe these as heavy.
p.s. I get the anger but (hoho) please spare us the self-righteous moralising.
The world is full of evil people. Putin happens to be one of the worst. There are many others. And (teehee) yes we in the west did contribute to this.
Avoid being over-simplistic. Like that kind of sentence.
"self-righteous moralising."
Not really. Russia's path has been clear for years. The indications have all been there. The people who need to feel shame are those who argued that Russia would not do this, that it was somehow our fault. Those who argued against taking firmer actions after Georgia. After Donbass. After Salisbury. etc, etc.
The longer we've left it, the harder it gets to persuade Russia onto a peaceful course.
We've let evil fester and grow.
I think in your anger you're lumping together different points. I didn't think Putin would go full tonto. But I've always considered him an evil bastard, would have gone after dirty Russian money long, long, ago, thought that our response after Salisbury, the shooting down of MH17, the series of other poisonings, Crimea, etc. etc. has been beyond feeble.
And I do not agree with you that we are absolved. There is very dirty Russian money in London: Putin's friends have found a safe haven on our shores. And we have continued to do business with him and his cronies. (See Andy's point above about the State Banquet for Putin in 2003.)
The response this week, which you describe as 'heavy', was pathetic.
p.s. I don't know anything about Stop the War but I don't condemn people who strive on principle for peace. As a Buddhist I don't believe in armed conflict as a solution.
We all knew it was coming, just a question of when.
Are sanctions enough? It takes time to feel the pain of them even if they at the highest level possible.
Russia is already under heavy sanctions.
No one should describe these as heavy.
p.s. I get the anger but (hoho) please spare us the self-righteous moralising.
The world is full of evil people. Putin happens to be one of the worst. There are many others. And (teehee) yes we in the west did contribute to this.
Avoid being over-simplistic. Like that kind of sentence.
"self-righteous moralising."
Not really. Russia's path has been clear for years. The indications have all been there. The people who need to feel shame are those who argued that Russia would not do this, that it was somehow our fault. Those who argued against taking firmer actions after Georgia. After Donbass. After Salisbury. etc, etc.
The longer we've left it, the harder it gets to persuade Russia onto a peaceful course.
We've let evil fester and grow.
I think in your anger you're lumping together different points. I didn't think Putin would go full tonto. But I've always considered him an evil bastard, would have gone after dirty Russian money long, long, ago, thought that our response after Salisbury, the shooting down of MH17, the series of other poisonings, Crimea, etc. etc. has been beyond feeble.
And I do not agree with you that we are absolved. There is very dirty Russian money in London: Putin's friends have found a safe haven on our shores. And we have continued to do business with him and his cronies.
The response this week, which you describe as 'heavy', was pathetic.
p.s. I don't know anything about Stop the War but I don't condemn people who strive on principle for peace. As a Buddhist I don't believe in armed conflict as a solution.
Why didn't you think he wouldn't go 'full tonto' ? What did you base that judgement on, given his previous actions? Blind hope?
I'm talking about the sanctions already in place against Russia and individuals. And Putin will have factored likely sanctions into his thinking, knowing it's the easiest way for us to respond.
And yes, we are absolved. This is Putin's decision. We have not forced his hand.
Think the markets will take a real dive this morning. First signs in the Far East where they're down c. 3% and the NASDAQ took a big hit in late trading.
Some of this was factored in but like myself, many traders thought Putin would hold back at the separatist states.
You maintained it would not happen and now it has your confirmation Putin is a war criminal would be welcome
We all knew it was coming, just a question of when.
Are sanctions enough? It takes time to feel the pain of them even if they at the highest level possible.
Russia is already under heavy sanctions.
No one should describe these as heavy.
p.s. I get the anger but (hoho) please spare us the self-righteous moralising.
The world is full of evil people. Putin happens to be one of the worst. There are many others. And (teehee) yes we in the west did contribute to this.
Avoid being over-simplistic. Like that kind of sentence.
"self-righteous moralising."
Not really. Russia's path has been clear for years. The indications have all been there. The people who need to feel shame are those who argued that Russia would not do this, that it was somehow our fault. Those who argued against taking firmer actions after Georgia. After Donbass. After Salisbury. etc, etc.
The longer we've left it, the harder it gets to persuade Russia onto a peaceful course.
We've let evil fester and grow.
I think in your anger you're lumping together different points. I didn't think Putin would go full tonto. But I've always considered him an evil bastard, would have gone after dirty Russian money long, long, ago, thought that our response after Salisbury, the shooting down of MH17, the series of other poisonings, Crimea, etc. etc. has been beyond feeble.
And I do not agree with you that we are absolved. There is very dirty Russian money in London: Putin's friends have found a safe haven on our shores. And we have continued to do business with him and his cronies.
The response this week, which you describe as 'heavy', was pathetic.
p.s. I don't know anything about Stop the War but I don't condemn people who strive on principle for peace. As a Buddhist I don't believe in armed conflict as a solution.
And yes, we are absolved.
No we aren't.
We have dirty Putin money on our hands and we are not absolved of it, nor of our response.
We could have hit Putin much harder a long, long, time ago. And we have also stoked up the problems.
It's very easy to lay blame for actions entirely on one person but I'm afraid that's not how the real world works. Nothing happens ex nihilo. There have been a series of huge mistakes by the west over a long period of time. That doesn't deny the fact that Putin is both evil and crazed.
At the risk of going all Godwin, a good example of how culpability is shared would be the Versailles treaty of 1919.
You won't see this now because you're burning with anger but one day you will reflect on this and see it with clearer, calmer, eyes.
Think the markets will take a real dive this morning. First signs in the Far East where they're down c. 3% and the NASDAQ took a big hit in late trading.
Some of this was factored in but like myself, many traders thought Putin would hold back at the separatist states.
You maintained it would not happen and now it has your confirmation Putin is a war criminal would be welcome
Yes I really didn't think it would happen. I thought he would stop at the separatist states.
Our sanctions should be so heavy that we feel pain, let alone Russia. Such an act of unprovoked war in Europe cannot go unpunished and we should be collectively willing to pay some sacrifice to make sure Russia suffers for these actions.
Freeze and start legal action to confiscate assets of anyone linked to Putin. Ban anyone in the West from holding Russian government or Ruble denominated debt. Cut access to Swift. Sanction all Russian banks. Implement a energy plan that makes Europe independent of Russian oil/gas as soon as possible.
We all knew it was coming, just a question of when.
Are sanctions enough? It takes time to feel the pain of them even if they at the highest level possible.
Russia is already under heavy sanctions.
No one should describe these as heavy.
p.s. I get the anger but (hoho) please spare us the self-righteous moralising.
The world is full of evil people. Putin happens to be one of the worst. There are many others. And (teehee) yes we in the west did contribute to this.
Avoid being over-simplistic. Like that kind of sentence.
"self-righteous moralising."
Not really. Russia's path has been clear for years. The indications have all been there. The people who need to feel shame are those who argued that Russia would not do this, that it was somehow our fault. Those who argued against taking firmer actions after Georgia. After Donbass. After Salisbury. etc, etc.
The longer we've left it, the harder it gets to persuade Russia onto a peaceful course.
We've let evil fester and grow.
I think in your anger you're lumping together different points. I didn't think Putin would go full tonto. But I've always considered him an evil bastard, would have gone after dirty Russian money long, long, ago, thought that our response after Salisbury, the shooting down of MH17, the series of other poisonings, Crimea, etc. etc. has been beyond feeble.
And I do not agree with you that we are absolved. There is very dirty Russian money in London: Putin's friends have found a safe haven on our shores. And we have continued to do business with him and his cronies.
The response this week, which you describe as 'heavy', was pathetic.
p.s. I don't know anything about Stop the War but I don't condemn people who strive on principle for peace. As a Buddhist I don't believe in armed conflict as a solution.
And yes, we are absolved.
No we aren't.
We have dirty Putin money on our hands and we are not absolved of it, nor of our response.
We could have hit Putin much harder a long, long, time ago. And we have also stoked up the problems.
It's very easy to lay blame for actions entirely on one person but I'm afraid that's not how the real world works. Nothing happens ex nihilo. There have been a series of huge mistakes by the west over a long period of time. That doesn't deny the fact that Putin is both evil and crazed.
At the risk of going all Godwin, a good example of how culpability is shared would be the Versailles treaty of 1919.
You won't see this now because you're burning with anger but one day you will reflect on this and see it with clearer, calmer, eyes.
'It's very easy to lay blame for actions on one person'
Yes it is and it is Putin, nobody else has invaded Ukraine when all along you said it would not happen
There is no excuse for Putin no matter how you try to deflect it
We all knew it was coming, just a question of when.
Are sanctions enough? It takes time to feel the pain of them even if they at the highest level possible.
Russia is already under heavy sanctions.
No one should describe these as heavy.
p.s. I get the anger but (hoho) please spare us the self-righteous moralising.
The world is full of evil people. Putin happens to be one of the worst. There are many others. And (teehee) yes we in the west did contribute to this.
Avoid being over-simplistic. Like that kind of sentence.
So all your bollox for the past few weeks about the invasion nenver gonna happen helps to inform us how to view all your posts.
Come now. There's not a person on here who hasn't called something wrong. At least I got the timing right: telling Leon that if it happened it would be after the Olympics Closing Ceremony. This was derided but it picked up the point that Putin-Xi are a close axis now. That's a big worry ref. Taiwan.
Like many I thought he would hold back at the separatist states. I was wrong.
Think the markets will take a real dive this morning. First signs in the Far East where they're down c. 3% and the NASDAQ took a big hit in late trading.
Some of this was factored in but like myself, many traders thought Putin would hold back at the separatist states.
You maintained it would not happen and now it has your confirmation Putin is a war criminal would be welcome
Yes I really didn't think it would happen. I thought he would stop at the separatist states.
I await your confirmation that Putin is a war criminal
We all knew it was coming, just a question of when.
Are sanctions enough? It takes time to feel the pain of them even if they at the highest level possible.
Russia is already under heavy sanctions.
No one should describe these as heavy.
p.s. I get the anger but (hoho) please spare us the self-righteous moralising.
The world is full of evil people. Putin happens to be one of the worst. There are many others. And (teehee) yes we in the west did contribute to this.
Avoid being over-simplistic. Like that kind of sentence.
"self-righteous moralising."
Not really. Russia's path has been clear for years. The indications have all been there. The people who need to feel shame are those who argued that Russia would not do this, that it was somehow our fault. Those who argued against taking firmer actions after Georgia. After Donbass. After Salisbury. etc, etc.
The longer we've left it, the harder it gets to persuade Russia onto a peaceful course.
We've let evil fester and grow.
I think in your anger you're lumping together different points. I didn't think Putin would go full tonto. But I've always considered him an evil bastard, would have gone after dirty Russian money long, long, ago, thought that our response after Salisbury, the shooting down of MH17, the series of other poisonings, Crimea, etc. etc. has been beyond feeble.
And I do not agree with you that we are absolved. There is very dirty Russian money in London: Putin's friends have found a safe haven on our shores. And we have continued to do business with him and his cronies.
The response this week, which you describe as 'heavy', was pathetic.
p.s. I don't know anything about Stop the War but I don't condemn people who strive on principle for peace. As a Buddhist I don't believe in armed conflict as a solution.
And yes, we are absolved.
No we aren't.
We have dirty Putin money on our hands and we are not absolved of it, nor of our response.
We could have hit Putin much harder a long, long, time ago. And we have also stoked up the problems.
It's very easy to lay blame for actions entirely on one person but I'm afraid that's not how the real world works. Nothing happens ex nihilo. There have been a series of huge mistakes by the west over a long period of time. That doesn't deny the fact that Putin is both evil and crazed.
At the risk of going all Godwin, a good example of how culpability is shared would be the Versailles treaty of 1919.
You won't see this now because you're burning with anger but one day you will reflect on this and see it with clearer, calmer, eyes.
I'm not 'burning with anger'. Stop trying to make me out to be in some form of irrational state. I am not. I am angry, but calm.
And we are absolved. we have done nothing to provoke Russia into this invasion of a sovereign state. Whatever we did, people would find a reason to blame us. If we'd put stronger sanctions on, it would be our fault. If we did nothing, it would be our fault. Heck, Nick Palmer even said that warning against an invasion might 'poke' Putin.
And BTW, I've argued consistently for stronger measures against Russia for years, warning against exactly this sort of thing. Let's just say others differed.
Our sanctions should be so heavy that we feel pain, let alone Russia. Such an act of unprovoked war in Europe cannot go unpunished and we should be collectively willing to pay some sacrifice to make sure Russia suffers for these actions.
Freeze and start legal action to confiscate assets of anyone linked to Putin. Ban anyone in the West from holding Russian government or Ruble denominated debt. Cut access to Swift. Sanction all Russian banks. Implement a energy plan that makes Europe independent of Russian oil/gas as soon as possible.
Our sanctions should be so heavy that we feel pain, let alone Russia. Such an act of unprovoked war in Europe cannot go unpunished and we should be collectively willing to pay some sacrifice to make sure Russia suffers for these actions.
Freeze and start legal action to confiscate assets of anyone linked to Putin. Ban anyone in the West from holding Russian government or Ruble denominated debt. Cut access to Swift. Sanction all Russian banks. Implement a energy plan that makes Europe independent of Russian oil/gas as soon as possible.
Isolate Russia from all international sport
I don't think the Russian GP will be going ahead in September...
I shall leave the bellicose, and understandably very angry, armchair generals to their fuming.
Putin is evil. I've never thought any different. So is Boris Johnson. So is Donald Trump. So is Nigel Farage.
Have a good day.
I am not sure if you are being deliberately provocative but the only person who will get comfort from your words is Putin, who you have refused to name as a war criminal
I shall leave the bellicose, and understandably very angry, armchair generals to their fuming.
Putin is evil. I've never thought any different. So is Boris Johnson. So is Donald Trump. So is Nigel Farage.
Have a good day.
I don’t see any armchair generals here. I also don’t see how Johnson, Trump and Farage are evil or even comparable to Putin.
I’m not instinctively of the view the west is always on the side of good and Russia is always bad but in the case of this invasion the mood of,the forum is spot on.
My warmest wishes to @Sandpit’s wife and her family and I hope they are all safe.
Bloomberg @bpolitics China opposes sanctions against Russia and criticizes the U.S. for inflaming the Ukraine crisis, suggesting its support for NATO’s expansion left Vladimir Putin with few options
First the great financial crisis, then Covid, now this. It's an awful world.
We've still got the World Cup to look forward to this year.
If Ukraine beat Scotland (lol) and Russia beat Poland (without invading them with the elite 22nd Mechanised Rapist Division) then the finals of the UEFA play off for qualification could be Russia vs Ukraine in Moscow. Football, bloody hell!
We all knew it was coming, just a question of when.
Are sanctions enough? It takes time to feel the pain of them even if they at the highest level possible.
Russia is already under heavy sanctions.
No one should describe these as heavy.
p.s. I get the anger but (hoho) please spare us the self-righteous moralising.
The world is full of evil people. Putin happens to be one of the worst. There are many others. And (teehee) yes we in the west did contribute to this.
Avoid being over-simplistic. Like that kind of sentence.
"self-righteous moralising."
Not really. Russia's path has been clear for years. The indications have all been there. The people who need to feel shame are those who argued that Russia would not do this, that it was somehow our fault. Those who argued against taking firmer actions after Georgia. After Donbass. After Salisbury. etc, etc.
The longer we've left it, the harder it gets to persuade Russia onto a peaceful course.
We've let evil fester and grow.
I think in your anger you're lumping together different points. I didn't think Putin would go full tonto. But I've always considered him an evil bastard, would have gone after dirty Russian money long, long, ago, thought that our response after Salisbury, the shooting down of MH17, the series of other poisonings, Crimea, etc. etc. has been beyond feeble.
And I do not agree with you that we are absolved. There is very dirty Russian money in London: Putin's friends have found a safe haven on our shores. And we have continued to do business with him and his cronies.
The response this week, which you describe as 'heavy', was pathetic.
p.s. I don't know anything about Stop the War but I don't condemn people who strive on principle for peace. As a Buddhist I don't believe in armed conflict as a solution.
And yes, we are absolved.
No we aren't.
We have dirty Putin money on our hands and we are not absolved of it, nor of our response.
We could have hit Putin much harder a long, long, time ago. And we have also stoked up the problems.
It's very easy to lay blame for actions entirely on one person but I'm afraid that's not how the real world works. Nothing happens ex nihilo. There have been a series of huge mistakes by the west over a long period of time. That doesn't deny the fact that Putin is both evil and crazed.
At the risk of going all Godwin, a good example of how culpability is shared would be the Versailles treaty of 1919.
You won't see this now because you're burning with anger but one day you will reflect on this and see it with clearer, calmer, eyes.
The West has indeed made a series of huge mistakes, but offensive and defensive, over the past 33 years, that have contributed to this.
We are where we are and it's an awful day. Russia should be isolated in every possible way and the West should heavily build up its forces throughout Eastern Europe.
I shall leave the bellicose, and understandably very angry, armchair generals to their fuming.
Putin is evil. I've never thought any different. So is Boris Johnson. So is Donald Trump. So is Nigel Farage.
Have a good day.
Now come on, that's very lame whataboutery.
Our Prime Minister, for example, is a compulsive liar, a charlatan and unfit for office. What he is not is a genocidal neo-imperialist maniac. In terms of criminality, holding lockdown parties is not in the same league as conquering and colonising one of the neighbours, involving what we must all fear is the imminent mass displacement of people and slaughter on a scale not seen in Europe since 1945.
If Boris Johnson were currently conducting a full scale invasion of Ireland you would have a point. As it is, you're talking out of your proverbial. And, for the avoidance of doubt, no, I'm not an "armchair general" and I'm not advocating that we throw our feeble armed forces into a doomed conflict with Russia.
This is terrible but was always possible. We will soon see what level of resolve Ukraine actually has to resist such an invasion. The worst case scenario is that the country simply folds and a puppet government is installed. If that is the case, we can be pretty sure it won't stop here. The same strategy can be rolled out throughout Eastern Europe and the Baltics.
I shall leave the bellicose, and understandably very angry, armchair generals to their fuming.
Putin is evil. I've never thought any different. So is Boris Johnson. So is Donald Trump. So is Nigel Farage.
Have a good day.
Now come on, that's very lame whataboutery.
Our Prime Minister, for example, is a compulsive liar, a charlatan and unfit for office. What he is not is a genocidal neo-imperialist maniac. In terms of criminality, holding lockdown parties is not in the same league as conquering and colonising one of the neighbours, involving what we must all fear is the imminent mass displacement of people and slaughter on a scale not seen in Europe since 1945.
If Boris Johnson were currently conducting a full scale invasion of Ireland you would have a point. As it is, you're talking out of your proverbial. And, for the avoidance of doubt, no, I'm not an "armchair general" and I'm not advocating that we throw our feeble armed forces into a doomed conflict with Russia.
Nevertheless in a crisis we need leadership that is able to rise to the task at hand. In history where this hasn’t been the case, changes have been made, war or no.
Bloomberg @bpolitics China opposes sanctions against Russia and criticizes the U.S. for inflaming the Ukraine crisis, suggesting its support for NATO’s expansion left Vladimir Putin with few options
First the great financial crisis, then Covid, now this. It's an awful world.
We've still got the World Cup to look forward to this year.
If Ukraine beat Scotland (lol) and Russia beat Poland (without invading them with the elite 22nd Mechanised Rapist Division) then the finals of the UEFA play off for qualification could be Russia vs Ukraine in Moscow. Football, bloody hell!
Russia should obviously be thrown out of the competition, along with the rest of society. OTOH Russian money presumably saturates UEFA in the same way as it does the Conservative Party (the prominent Gazprom sponsorship of the Champions League is something of a giveaway.) If they're allowed to keep playing then we shall know the truth of it.
Bloomberg @bpolitics China opposes sanctions against Russia and criticizes the U.S. for inflaming the Ukraine crisis, suggesting its support for NATO’s expansion left Vladimir Putin with few options
First the great financial crisis, then Covid, now this. It's an awful world.
We've still got the World Cup to look forward to this year.
If Ukraine beat Scotland (lol) and Russia beat Poland (without invading them with the elite 22nd Mechanised Rapist Division) then the finals of the UEFA play off for qualification could be Russia vs Ukraine in Moscow. Football, bloody hell!
They’re in different paths. Scotland/Ukraine face the winner of Wales/Austria.
And I very much doubt if Russia will be allowed to compete in sports. Will be interesting to see if UEFA chuck Zenit out of the Europa League before they play Betis tonight.
First the great financial crisis, then Covid, now this. It's an awful world.
We've still got the World Cup to look forward to this year.
If Ukraine beat Scotland (lol) and Russia beat Poland (without invading them with the elite 22nd Mechanised Rapist Division) then the finals of the UEFA play off for qualification could be Russia vs Ukraine in Moscow. Football, bloody hell!
Russia should obviously be thrown out of the competition, along with the rest of society. OTOH Russian money presumably saturates UEFA in the same way as it does the Conservative Party (the prominent Gazprom sponsorship of the Champions League is something of a giveaway.) If they're allowed to keep playing then we shall know the truth of it.
We all knew it was coming, just a question of when.
Are sanctions enough? It takes time to feel the pain of them even if they at the highest level possible.
Russia is already under heavy sanctions.
No one should describe these as heavy.
p.s. I get the anger but (hoho) please spare us the self-righteous moralising.
The world is full of evil people. Putin happens to be one of the worst. There are many others. And (teehee) yes we in the west did contribute to this.
Avoid being over-simplistic. Like that kind of sentence.
"self-righteous moralising."
Not really. Russia's path has been clear for years. The indications have all been there. The people who need to feel shame are those who argued that Russia would not do this, that it was somehow our fault. Those who argued against taking firmer actions after Georgia. After Donbass. After Salisbury. etc, etc.
The longer we've left it, the harder it gets to persuade Russia onto a peaceful course.
We've let evil fester and grow.
I think in your anger you're lumping together different points. I didn't think Putin would go full tonto. But I've always considered him an evil bastard, would have gone after dirty Russian money long, long, ago, thought that our response after Salisbury, the shooting down of MH17, the series of other poisonings, Crimea, etc. etc. has been beyond feeble.
And I do not agree with you that we are absolved. There is very dirty Russian money in London: Putin's friends have found a safe haven on our shores. And we have continued to do business with him and his cronies.
The response this week, which you describe as 'heavy', was pathetic.
p.s. I don't know anything about Stop the War but I don't condemn people who strive on principle for peace. As a Buddhist I don't believe in armed conflict as a solution.
And yes, we are absolved.
No we aren't.
We have dirty Putin money on our hands and we are not absolved of it, nor of our response.
We could have hit Putin much harder a long, long, time ago. And we have also stoked up the problems.
It's very easy to lay blame for actions entirely on one person but I'm afraid that's not how the real world works. Nothing happens ex nihilo. There have been a series of huge mistakes by the west over a long period of time. That doesn't deny the fact that Putin is both evil and crazed.
At the risk of going all Godwin, a good example of how culpability is shared would be the Versailles treaty of 1919.
You won't see this now because you're burning with anger but one day you will reflect on this and see it with clearer, calmer, eyes.
The West has indeed made a series of huge mistakes, but offensive and defensive, over the past 33 years, that have contributed to this.
(Snip)
The issue with this line of thinking is that Putin has wanted to 'secure his borders' using neighbouring states for decades. Hence Georgia in ?2008?.
If we'd largely done the opposite actions, people would find excuses for his actions.
This is terrible but was always possible. We will soon see what level of resolve Ukraine actually has to resist such an invasion. The worst case scenario is that the country simply folds and a puppet government is installed. If that is the case, we can be pretty sure it won't stop here. The same strategy can be rolled out throughout Eastern Europe and the Baltics.
The profound wisdom of all the countries that rushed to join NATO after the end of the Soviet Empire is now obvious, if it wasn't before. Putin can't go after any of them without declaring war on three fellow nuclear armed powers and, in Poland, Romania and the Baltics, killing their troops on the ground. There's no point in trying to expand the Russian Empire if it ends up as a heap of radioactive ash. You can't enjoy your vast stolen wealth if you're spending your last few months slowly starving or dying of radiation sickness in a deep bunker.
There is no protection outside of the alliance. Ukraine is finished, Russia will probably overrun Moldova, and it might finish off Georgia as well. If the Finnish Government doesn't rush to join the alliance whilst it still can then they need their collective heads examining, frankly.
We all knew it was coming, just a question of when.
Are sanctions enough? It takes time to feel the pain of them even if they at the highest level possible.
Russia is already under heavy sanctions.
No one should describe these as heavy.
p.s. I get the anger but (hoho) please spare us the self-righteous moralising.
The world is full of evil people. Putin happens to be one of the worst. There are many others. And (teehee) yes we in the west did contribute to this.
Avoid being over-simplistic. Like that kind of sentence.
"self-righteous moralising."
Not really. Russia's path has been clear for years. The indications have all been there. The people who need to feel shame are those who argued that Russia would not do this, that it was somehow our fault. Those who argued against taking firmer actions after Georgia. After Donbass. After Salisbury. etc, etc.
The longer we've left it, the harder it gets to persuade Russia onto a peaceful course.
We've let evil fester and grow.
I think in your anger you're lumping together different points. I didn't think Putin would go full tonto. But I've always considered him an evil bastard, would have gone after dirty Russian money long, long, ago, thought that our response after Salisbury, the shooting down of MH17, the series of other poisonings, Crimea, etc. etc. has been beyond feeble.
And I do not agree with you that we are absolved. There is very dirty Russian money in London: Putin's friends have found a safe haven on our shores. And we have continued to do business with him and his cronies.
The response this week, which you describe as 'heavy', was pathetic.
p.s. I don't know anything about Stop the War but I don't condemn people who strive on principle for peace. As a Buddhist I don't believe in armed conflict as a solution.
And yes, we are absolved.
No we aren't.
We have dirty Putin money on our hands and we are not absolved of it, nor of our response.
We could have hit Putin much harder a long, long, time ago. And we have also stoked up the problems.
It's very easy to lay blame for actions entirely on one person but I'm afraid that's not how the real world works. Nothing happens ex nihilo. There have been a series of huge mistakes by the west over a long period of time. That doesn't deny the fact that Putin is both evil and crazed.
At the risk of going all Godwin, a good example of how culpability is shared would be the Versailles treaty of 1919.
You won't see this now because you're burning with anger but one day you will reflect on this and see it with clearer, calmer, eyes.
The West has indeed made a series of huge mistakes, but offensive and defensive, over the past 33 years, that have contributed to this.
(Snip)
The issue with this line of thinking is that Putin has wanted to 'secure his borders' using neighbouring states for decades. Hence Georgia in ?2008?.
If we'd largely done the opposite actions, people would find excuses for his actions.
As per our discussion yesterday, I don't believe life is as simple as this. The key years there were 1989 to 2004.
We should really be discussing the here and now, today, I think. I find it particularly worrying that he's hitting targets in the far west of Ukraine. There needs to be some sort of the fast Western co-ordinated and deterrent response in Eastern Europe.
This is terrible but was always possible. We will soon see what level of resolve Ukraine actually has to resist such an invasion. The worst case scenario is that the country simply folds and a puppet government is installed. If that is the case, we can be pretty sure it won't stop here. The same strategy can be rolled out throughout Eastern Europe and the Baltics.
The profound wisdom of all the countries that rushed to join NATO after the end of the Soviet Empire is now obvious, if it wasn't before. Putin can't go after any of them without declaring war on three fellow nuclear armed powers and, in Poland, Romania and the Baltics, killing their troops on the ground. There's no point in trying to expand the Russian Empire if it ends up as a heap of radioactive ash. You can't enjoy your vast stolen wealth if you're spending your last few months slowly starving or dying of radiation sickness in a deep bunker.
There is no protection outside of the alliance. Ukraine is finished, Russia will probably overrun Moldova, and it might finish off Georgia as well. If the Finnish Government doesn't rush to join the alliance whilst it still can then they need their collective heads examining, frankly.
It is too early to conclude Ukraine is finished. And also too early to conclude that NATO would actually work in the way it is intended. Only a couple of years ago it was being written off as being on its last legs. You would want to be really confident that you can rely on mutual defence before signing up to it.
"Multi-billionaire oligarchs at heart of corruption cases have been welcomed by our financial institutions with open arms... It shows the cynical greed of lawyers and spin doctors getting rich as Vladimir Putin cronies' cheerleaders"
“Ukrainians will never give up their freedom and independence to anyone. Only we have been determining our future since 1991. But now the fate of not only our state is being decided, but also what life in Europe will be like.”
It is very sad that the world is once again having to face up to the Russian bear. The lunacy of the cold war was not something we thought would come back, and we tried very hard to bring Russia into the world - G8 remember? It seems that many Russians also want no part in a return to those days - whilst I want us to massively step up sanctions against the Russian money flooding through London it also demonstrates a desire by many to join in with the west.
My thoughts this morning: 1. We aren't going to war over Ukraine and Putin knows it 2. Unless we grow a pair we aren't going to do sanctions and boycotts worth a damn. Putin knows this too. 3. So a meaningful line has to be drawn somewhere. That line is NATO territory. We need to make Putin understand that and that means mobilising to defend them 4. We're going to have to seriously think about our defences if this is a new cold war. You name a function of state and we have cut it deeply. We need significant money spending to repair the damage to our armed forces - numbers and equipment. And on security services to watch for more Salisbury and worse attacks. And cyber security.
Either way, I struggle to think of a worse person to be leading us than Boris Johnson - other than Jeremy Corbyn of course. Putin's meddling in our affairs - which Big Dog refused to investigate - has left us in a right mess.
The bells toll, on time, down through time at St Michael's magnificent cathedral in the midst of this moment of danger and disbelief. #Kyiv #Ukraine 7:01 AM · Feb 24, 2022·"
It is very sad that the world is once again having to face up to the Russian bear. The lunacy of the cold war was not something we thought would come back, and we tried very hard to bring Russia into the world - G8 remember? It seems that many Russians also want no part in a return to those days - whilst I want us to massively step up sanctions against the Russian money flooding through London it also demonstrates a desire by many to join in with the west.
My thoughts this morning: 1. We aren't going to war over Ukraine and Putin knows it 2. Unless we grow a pair we aren't going to do sanctions and boycotts worth a damn. Putin knows this too. 3. So a meaningful line has to be drawn somewhere. That line is NATO territory. We need to make Putin understand that and that means mobilising to defend them 4. We're going to have to seriously think about our defences if this is a new cold war. You name a function of state and we have cut it deeply. We need significant money spending to repair the damage to our armed forces - numbers and equipment. And on security services to watch for more Salisbury and worse attacks. And cyber security.
Either way, I struggle to think of a worse person to be leading us than Boris Johnson - other than Jeremy Corbyn of course. Putin's meddling in our affairs - which Big Dog refused to investigate - has left us in a right mess.
Think the markets will take a real dive this morning. First signs in the Far East where they're down c. 3% and the NASDAQ took a big hit in late trading.
Some of this was factored in but like myself, many traders thought Putin would hold back at the separatist states.
You maintained it would not happen and now it has your confirmation Putin is a war criminal would be welcome
Yes I really didn't think it would happen. I thought he would stop at the separatist states.
I await your confirmation that Putin is a war criminal
I am confused as to why today's actions would make a war criminal a war criminal.
First the great financial crisis, then Covid, now this. It's an awful world.
We've still got the World Cup to look forward to this year.
If Ukraine beat Scotland (lol) and Russia beat Poland (without invading them with the elite 22nd Mechanised Rapist Division) then the finals of the UEFA play off for qualification could be Russia vs Ukraine in Moscow. Football, bloody hell!
The quicker that world sporting bodies remove Russia the better. Sorry Vlad, you can't invade places and then still get to advertise Gazprom and send your teams out like we're all friends.
The evidence shows axes of advance are coming from Belarus, Belgorod, and Crimea so far. This will likely include Kursk/Bryansk and the Donbas as well. This is not an incremental operation, it is designed to achieve its goals as fast as possible, including the ground advance. 3/
Our sanctions should be so heavy that we feel pain, let alone Russia. Such an act of unprovoked war in Europe cannot go unpunished and we should be collectively willing to pay some sacrifice to make sure Russia suffers for these actions.
Freeze and start legal action to confiscate assets of anyone linked to Putin. Ban anyone in the West from holding Russian government or Ruble denominated debt. Cut access to Swift. Sanction all Russian banks. Implement a energy plan that makes Europe independent of Russian oil/gas as soon as possible.
Agreed. We need a complete and 100% isolation of Russia akin to and beyond what happened to the Apartheid South Africa. Ban them from finance, from sports, from anything and everything.
On the latter, not to be replaced with "I can't believe it's not Russia" Olympic teams ... Banned full stop. Cut off entirely from the world.
The evidence shows axes of advance are coming from Belarus, Belgorod, and Crimea so far. This will likely include Kursk/Bryansk and the Donbas as well. This is not an incremental operation, it is designed to achieve its goals as fast as possible, including the ground advance. 3/
I shall leave the bellicose, and understandably very angry, armchair generals to their fuming.
Putin is evil. I've never thought any different. So is Boris Johnson. So is Donald Trump. So is Nigel Farage.
Have a good day.
Utter whataboutery - which sovereign states have any of them invaded? Troll!
I think you called me a troll yesterday as well. I always see accusing a regular of being a troll as a weak sign that you've run out of anything useful to say except be insulting and rude. It's the last resort of a feeble mind.
I don't share your right-wing bellicosity but I won't call you a troll.
There are many evil people in the world, mostly men. Putin is one but only one.
I enjoy my life by distancing myself as much as I can from those who cause harm. As a Buddhist I don't generally believe in conflict. If I was in Ukraine now what would I do? Probably let them invade without bloodshed. It's awful, I know.
And for those on the far right on here ... I may have got it wrong about this invasion (because I didn't think Putin was that stupid) but I've called it correctly about Boris Johnson. I didn't think he would be removed this side of the General Election when some of you were so certain he would be. He will find another crisis to lurch to and latch onto and, before we know it, we'll be at the eve of the election.
This is very grim for Ukraine. Putin is an evil man but this isn't WWIII.
Our Prime Minister, for example, is a compulsive liar, a charlatan and unfit for office. What he is not is a genocidal neo-imperialist maniac.
That's only because Johnson lacks the energy and competence of Putin. He'd like to be just as evil he just doesn't know how and can't be arsed.
This isn't the time for comments like this IMO.
It bloody well is. Putin has played the long game. Throw time and money at destabilising the west so that when he breaks international law in very specific and limited way he isn't facing western countries at the height of their powers. Instead he faces defanged pygmies like Johnson and absolute lunatics like Trump (not in office but clearly still holding power and authority over US politics) and preening peacocks like Macron.
Putin looks at all our leaders and sees them as puny idiots. His assessment - and how that drives his decision making - is absolutely the thing we need to be discussing now. Because unless the west recognises its weak position and does something about it, Putin might think there really are no barriers to retaking the ex Soviet NATO states.
Comments
Putin a war criminal
Are sanctions enough? It takes time to feel the pain of them even if they at the highest level possible.
They will not be enough. Sadly.
A big question is what Putin wants. What is his desired ideal result (say in five years), and what would he be willing to settle for?
Current sanctions against Russia are around 10-15% of what the West could do. Iran for example is more like 95%. At that level, there’s no doubt Putin would be hurt - although he may be willing to grin and bear it.
In return Russia would likely boost its cyber disruption activities, refuse air traffic flyovers, and perhaps (as threatened) try to damage underwater comms links between US and Europe.
As for the invasion, it’s expected that current attempts to secure the airspace (by bombing Ukrainian airfields and missile facilities) is expected to take 48-72 hours. After that, Russia’s main objective is to regime change in Kiev.
Analysts disagree, but it is not believed that Russia necessarily has the manpower to occupy Ukraine in totality.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2022/02/londons-response-to-vladimir-putin-is-pathetically-inadequate
"God rot great men. Vladimir Putin, by any reasonable historical measurement, is a great man. He rose from the ruins of the Soviet system and the scale of his ambition to rewrite world power politics is still not fully appreciated by Westerners.
If he succeeds, as he may well, all of Europe will be changed. First the devouring of eastern Ukrainian statelets; next, Kyiv; and beyond that, look to the Balkans, the Baltics and much more. Yes, the risks are huge. This may well involve, as Boris Johnson put it, the biggest war in Europe since 1945.
But the prize! Countries and cultures we have learned to treat as near neighbours – the Baltics, Poland, Romania as well as Ukraine – would eventually be tugged into the choke of Muscovite authoritarianism. Westerners still can’t quite believe this because the scale of Putin’s ambition is beyond our cautious, sceptical, postmodern understanding. Putin is a Napoleonic figure, a giant from our pasts.
So, God rot him. Like the Corsican, he’d reshape his world using, for fuel, the blood of decent folk going about ordinary lives. On television we’ve seen them, talking and laughing in their familiar anoraks and bobble-hats, pushing prams, lugging shopping or with children balanced on their shoulders. For them, Putin has prepared a world of grief, disappointment and loneliness; he is a great man."
"Russia's actions are wrong, but we have to look at what we've done in the past."
Putin's actions are his own decision. He wants to rule over eastern Europe states, whose people want to be independent. It is not our fault.
The evil is Putin's. That needs to be said clearly and unequivocally.
Who exactly are you talking about?
p.s. I get the anger but (hoho) please spare us the self-righteous moralising.
The world is full of evil people. Putin happens to be one of the worst. There are many others. And (teehee) yes we in the west did contribute to this.
Avoid being over-simplistic. Like that kind of sentence.
Trump is still at it, by the way. Even last night. The others may be sensible enough to keep their mouths shut.
But the Republicans are so fucked, who knows?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10545641/Putins-gives-chilling-warning-West-early-morning-TV-broadcast.html
I'm old enough to remember the Cold War, as are many on here I think. We lived with the distant shadow of nuclear war and 3-minute warnings.
Putin is crazed enough, and has enough of a Napoleon complex, to press the button.
Not really. Russia's path has been clear for years. The indications have all been there. The people who need to feel shame are those who argued that Russia would not do this, that it was somehow our fault. Those who argued against taking firmer actions after Georgia. After Donbass. After Salisbury. etc, etc.
The longer we've left it, the harder it gets to persuade Russia onto a peaceful course.
We've let evil fester and grow.
Some of this was factored in but like myself, many traders thought Putin would hold back at the separatist states.
Question is, would the necessary people obey an order?
“Turn your key, sir.”
And I do not agree with you that we are absolved. There is very dirty Russian money in London: Putin's friends have found a safe haven on our shores. And we have continued to do business with him and his cronies. (See Andy's point above about the State Banquet for Putin in 2003.)
The response this week, which you describe as 'heavy', was pathetic.
p.s. I don't know anything about Stop the War but I don't condemn people who strive on principle for peace. As a Buddhist I don't believe in armed conflict as a solution.
I'm talking about the sanctions already in place against Russia and individuals. And Putin will have factored likely sanctions into his thinking, knowing it's the easiest way for us to respond.
And yes, we are absolved. This is Putin's decision. We have not forced his hand.
We have dirty Putin money on our hands and we are not absolved of it, nor of our response.
We could have hit Putin much harder a long, long, time ago. And we have also stoked up the problems.
It's very easy to lay blame for actions entirely on one person but I'm afraid that's not how the real world works. Nothing happens ex nihilo. There have been a series of huge mistakes by the west over a long period of time. That doesn't deny the fact that Putin is both evil and crazed.
At the risk of going all Godwin, a good example of how culpability is shared would be the Versailles treaty of 1919.
You won't see this now because you're burning with anger but one day you will reflect on this and see it with clearer, calmer, eyes.
Freeze and start legal action to confiscate assets of anyone linked to Putin. Ban anyone in the West from holding Russian government or Ruble denominated debt. Cut access to Swift. Sanction all Russian banks. Implement a energy plan that makes Europe independent of Russian oil/gas as soon as possible.
Yes it is and it is Putin, nobody else has invaded Ukraine when all along you said it would not happen
There is no excuse for Putin no matter how you try to deflect it
Like many I thought he would hold back at the separatist states. I was wrong.
Putin is evil. I've never thought any different. So is Boris Johnson. So is Donald Trump. So is Nigel Farage.
Have a good day.
And we are absolved. we have done nothing to provoke Russia into this invasion of a sovereign state. Whatever we did, people would find a reason to blame us. If we'd put stronger sanctions on, it would be our fault. If we did nothing, it would be our fault. Heck, Nick Palmer even said that warning against an invasion might 'poke' Putin.
And BTW, I've argued consistently for stronger measures against Russia for years, warning against exactly this sort of thing. Let's just say others differed.
You are very keen to try and paint your opponents on here in a negative light, comrade.
It is unbelievable
https://www.bloomberg.com/energy
I’m not instinctively of the view the west is always on the side of good and Russia is always bad but in the case of this invasion the mood of,the forum is spot on.
My warmest wishes to @Sandpit’s wife and her family and I hope they are all safe.
@bpolitics
China opposes sanctions against Russia and criticizes the U.S. for inflaming the Ukraine crisis, suggesting its support for NATO’s expansion left Vladimir Putin with few options
https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1496716707213332481
https://news.sky.com/story/explosions-reported-near-kyiv-after-putin-authorises-military-operation-in-ukraine-ukraine-latest-12541713
If Ukraine beat Scotland (lol) and Russia beat Poland (without invading them with the elite 22nd Mechanised Rapist Division) then the finals of the UEFA play off for qualification could be Russia vs Ukraine in Moscow. Football, bloody hell!
We are where we are and it's an awful day. Russia should be isolated in every possible way and the West should heavily build up its forces throughout Eastern Europe.
Our Prime Minister, for example, is a compulsive liar, a charlatan and unfit for office. What he is not is a genocidal neo-imperialist maniac. In terms of criminality, holding lockdown parties is not in the same league as conquering and colonising one of the neighbours, involving what we must all fear is the imminent mass displacement of people and slaughter on a scale not seen in Europe since 1945.
If Boris Johnson were currently conducting a full scale invasion of Ireland you would have a point. As it is, you're talking out of your proverbial. And, for the avoidance of doubt, no, I'm not an "armchair general" and I'm not advocating that we throw our feeble armed forces into a doomed conflict with Russia.
And I very much doubt if Russia will be allowed to compete in sports. Will be interesting to see if UEFA chuck Zenit out of the Europa League before they play Betis tonight.
https://twitter.com/PaulSonne/status/1496725948229693440?t=DiVxjclp28jozsaHhrSstw&s=19
https://twitter.com/alexbward/status/1496736348270731265?s=21
To be taken with a pinch of salt….
If we'd largely done the opposite actions, people would find excuses for his actions.
There is no protection outside of the alliance. Ukraine is finished, Russia will probably overrun Moldova, and it might finish off Georgia as well. If the Finnish Government doesn't rush to join the alliance whilst it still can then they need their collective heads examining, frankly.
We should really be discussing the here and now, today, I think. I find it particularly worrying that he's hitting targets in the far west of Ukraine. There needs to be some sort of the fast Western co-ordinated and deterrent response in Eastern Europe.
I met some wonderful and hospitable Ukrainians and I cannot imagine what they will be going through today.
This is another horror for a people that have suffered so much in their history.
If Boris Johnson doesn't deliver the severest of sanctions on Russia then he really is Churchill, Churchill the dog.
I suspect the PM will confirm he is a ludicrous popinjay once more.
"Multi-billionaire oligarchs at heart of corruption cases have been welcomed by our financial institutions with open arms... It shows the cynical greed of lawyers and spin doctors getting rich as Vladimir Putin cronies' cheerleaders"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-10545235/MP-BOB-SEELY-Greed-lawyers-spin-doctors-getting-rich-Putin-cronies-cheerleaders.html
“Ukrainians will never give up their freedom and independence to anyone. Only we have been determining our future since 1991. But now the fate of not only our state is being decided, but also what life in Europe will be like.”
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1496743198613712896?s=21
My thoughts this morning:
1. We aren't going to war over Ukraine and Putin knows it
2. Unless we grow a pair we aren't going to do sanctions and boycotts worth a damn. Putin knows this too.
3. So a meaningful line has to be drawn somewhere. That line is NATO territory. We need to make Putin understand that and that means mobilising to defend them
4. We're going to have to seriously think about our defences if this is a new cold war. You name a function of state and we have cut it deeply. We need significant money spending to repair the damage to our armed forces - numbers and equipment. And on security services to watch for more Salisbury and worse attacks. And cyber security.
Either way, I struggle to think of a worse person to be leading us than Boris Johnson - other than Jeremy Corbyn of course. Putin's meddling in our affairs - which Big Dog refused to investigate - has left us in a right mess.
@bbclysedoucet
The bells toll, on time, down through time at St Michael's magnificent cathedral in the midst of this moment of danger and disbelief. #Kyiv #Ukraine
7:01 AM · Feb 24, 2022·"
They are now completely silent
https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1496745975528013824
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1496745947212169217
On the latter, not to be replaced with "I can't believe it's not Russia" Olympic teams ... Banned full stop. Cut off entirely from the world.
https://twitter.com/MApNRomania/status/1496737022874165252
More importantly than the Champions league final, the EU will now have a full-scale refugee crisis on its border.
War is a failure of politics.
Something did have to change, but it did not have to be this way.
I don't share your right-wing bellicosity but I won't call you a troll.
There are many evil people in the world, mostly men. Putin is one but only one.
I enjoy my life by distancing myself as much as I can from those who cause harm. As a Buddhist I don't generally believe in conflict. If I was in Ukraine now what would I do? Probably let them invade without bloodshed. It's awful, I know.
And for those on the far right on here ... I may have got it wrong about this invasion (because I didn't think Putin was that stupid) but I've called it correctly about Boris Johnson. I didn't think he would be removed this side of the General Election when some of you were so certain he would be. He will find another crisis to lurch to and latch onto and, before we know it, we'll be at the eve of the election.
This is very grim for Ukraine. Putin is an evil man but this isn't WWIII.
Right after the recognition of Donetsk & Luhansk.
In response, the EU still wanted to keep the door open for diplomatic options. So it dosed its sanctions package.
The West should not be fooled.
https://twitter.com/remkorteweg/status/1496747416653115393
Putin looks at all our leaders and sees them as puny idiots. His assessment - and how that drives his decision making - is absolutely the thing we need to be discussing now. Because unless the west recognises its weak position and does something about it, Putin might think there really are no barriers to retaking the ex Soviet NATO states.
Which would be bad.