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Sunak slipping down in the “Next PM” betting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,604
edited March 2022 in General
imageSunak slipping down in the “Next PM” betting – politicalbetting.com

AS can be seen from the chart there has been a sharp decline in the next PM betting price of Chancellor Sunak on the Betfair betting exchange. This, I guess, is being driven by the growing realisation that there might not be an immediate vacancy.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    verst
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,449
    edited February 2022
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    verst

    Oblast! Missed first again...
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,410
    edited February 2022
    Ukraine

    Of all the events of today, the most worrying so far hasn't been the uptick of fighting on the Eastern contact line or the patent prep talk by the Russians (awaiting the digging up of a lot of bones in a mass grave somewhere). Its the appearance of two of the three RAFs Rivet Joint signals gathering aircraft over Ukraine at one time and sight of comms relays and battlefield electronic warfare kit being popped up on the Russian side of the border.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,575
    Fourth
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,205
    Looks like a Lab gain in Allerdale.
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    I think Mordaunt is a plausible long shot.

    I can't see how the Tory membership would vote for Hunt or Tugendhat.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,120
    Whitehall thinks Putin will invade reports Times. He's made his mind up. It will be "horrendous".
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,538
    Rishi still way ahead of anyone else......
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,575
    Gary_Burton said:

    I think Mordaunt is a plausible long shot.

    I can't see how the Tory membership would vote for Hunt or Tugendhat.

    If it happens soon (which is still a big if) I can see scenarios where it never gets to the members.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,120
    IanB2 said:

    Gary_Burton said:

    I think Mordaunt is a plausible long shot.

    I can't see how the Tory membership would vote for Hunt or Tugendhat.

    If it happens soon (which is still a big if) I can see scenarios where it never gets to the members.
    it's not going to happen any time soon. johnson has weathered the storm. and now ukr is about to ko.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,240
    edited February 2022
    The more the Tories close the gap with Labour in the polls and the better they do in May's local elections, the worse Sunak's chances of being next PM rather than Starmer.

    If Boris actually recovers to win the next general election and beat Starmer the next PM might not even be either, it could be Andy Burnham for instance, who is on QT tonight and would be back in the Commons again after the next election
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Sunak blew it. You rarely get a second chance. Lacks Boris’ killer instinct.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,240
    edited February 2022
    Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

    Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    rottenborough said:

    Whitehall thinks Putin will invade reports Times. He's made his mind up. It will be "horrendous".

    Well possibly. But we know a good deal of work has gone into making sure if anything kicks off Putin can't blame Ukrainian provocation.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    21:00 UTC: pressure down to 979mb this appears deeper than forecast that’s not very reassuring.

    https://twitter.com/TheSnowDreamer/status/1494422724088934404
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,575
    HYUFD said:

    The more the Tories close the gap with Labour in the polls and the better they do in May's local elections, the worse Sunak's chances of being next PM.

    If Boris actually recovers to win the next general election and beat Starmer the next PM might not even be either, it could be Andy Burnham for instance, who is on QT tonight and would be back in the Commons again after the next election

    Dream on
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    HYUFD said:

    Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

    Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

    Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,670
    The Ukraine thing is fucking scary. To be frank

    There are multiple ways it could spiral out of Putin's control into global conflict
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,240
    edited February 2022
    Jonathan said:

    Sunak blew it. You rarely get a second chance. Lacks Boris’ killer instinct.

    He may well be the next Michael Portillo or David Miliband, 2 Crown Princes who also dithered and failed to challenge a weakened PM in 1995 and 2009 respectively.

    In the end Blair and Cameron delivered the killer blows to Major and Brown at the 1997 and 2010 general elections and Miliband and Portillo failed to even be elected Leaders of the Opposition let alone PM
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,120
    HYUFD said:

    Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

    Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

    Indeed. Starmer did his undergrad years at easily the finest HE institution in the UK. :smile:

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,688
    edited February 2022
    O/T

    Would anyone like to defend the New York Times' banning of the word "slave" from Wordle?

    https://www.newsweek.com/wordle-bans-slave-new-york-times-offensive-words-banned-removed-1679793
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,670
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Would anyone like to defend the New York Times' banning of the word "slave" from Wordle?

    They've bought a word game which they now intend to destroy because of their Wokeness. It is sublime
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,540
    Yokes said:

    Ukraine

    Of all the events of today, the most worrying so far hasn't been the uptick of fighting on the Eastern contact line or the patent prep talk by the Russians (awaiting the digging up of a lot of bones in a mass grave somewhere). Its the appearance of two of the three RAFs Rivet Joint signals gathering aircraft over Ukraine at one time and sight of comms relays and battlefield electronic warfare kit being popped up on the Russian side of the border.

    Flightradar24 just has one plane showing in Ukrainian airspace - a US drone

    https://www.flightradar24.com/XCCRM/2ad9a688
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,240
    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

    Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

    Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university
    So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,449
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    Would anyone like to defend the New York Times' banning of the word "slave" from Wordle?

    They bought it and can do what they like with it.

    I couldn't care less, it is the most boring craze for quite some time.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,670
    Is it already happening?


    ⭕️Verification: Real-time network data show a significant disruption to internet connectivity in #Luhansk/ eastern #Ukraine

    https://twitter.com/L_Team10/status/1494454047297974276?s=20&t=VxhYH2mffktdaG_ZtGaeXw
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

    Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

    Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university
    So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University
    No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,240
    Leon said:

    The Ukraine thing is fucking scary. To be frank

    There are multiple ways it could spiral out of Putin's control into global conflict

    It won't as long as NATO sticks to economic sanctions and not military action even if he does invade, given Ukraine is not in NATO
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,120
    Leon said:

    The Ukraine thing is fucking scary. To be frank

    There are multiple ways it could spiral out of Putin's control into global conflict

    East European conflict yes. I don't see how it gets to global conflict.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

    Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

    Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university
    So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University
    No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935
    Given British decline maybe it’s time look beyond Eton and Oxford. Just a thought.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,350
    Labour win in Allerdale. Was an Indy. But this was a straight Labour Tory fight. No Indy or Green. So. A bit difficult to draw any conclusions. A wins a win, mind.
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,540
    rottenborough said:

    Leon said:

    The Ukraine thing is fucking scary. To be frank

    There are multiple ways it could spiral out of Putin's control into global conflict

    East European conflict yes. I don't see how it gets to global conflict.

    If it spills over to the Baltic States or Poland...
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    ExiledInScotland said:

    Yokes said:

    Ukraine

    Of all the events of today, the most worrying so far hasn't been the uptick of fighting on the Eastern contact line or the patent prep talk by the Russians (awaiting the digging up of a lot of bones in a mass grave somewhere). Its the appearance of two of the three RAFs Rivet Joint signals gathering aircraft over Ukraine at one time and sight of comms relays and battlefield electronic warfare kit being popped up on the Russian side of the border.

    Flightradar24 just has one plane showing in Ukrainian airspace - a US drone

    https://www.flightradar24.com/XCCRM/2ad9a688
    There isn't a single plane over finland either - I think it is probably due to the fact it is 1.30 am in the morning over there.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,350
    Jonathan said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

    Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

    Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university
    So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University
    No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935
    Given British decline maybe it’s time look beyond Eton and Oxford. Just a thought.
    Christ!
    Take care what you wish for.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,240
    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

    Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

    Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university
    So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University
    No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935
    Though Brown, a graduate of Edinburgh, was not outright defeated by Oxford educated Cameron in 2010 and Oxford educated May failed to outright defeat non Oxford educated Corbyn in 2017. Note too non Oxford educated Churchill beat Oxford graduate Attlee in 1951.

    However a lot of general elections have been Oxford graduate v Oxford graduate eg 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1983, 2001 and 2015 or Oxford v Cambridge ie 2005, so Oxford or at least Oxbridge, could not lose those general elections anyway.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,784
    rottenborough said:

    Leon said:

    The Ukraine thing is fucking scary. To be frank

    There are multiple ways it could spiral out of Putin's control into global conflict

    East European conflict yes. I don't see how it gets to global conflict.

    Will somebody please hold Leon's hand until this has all blown over.

    Thanks.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,670
    rottenborough said:

    Leon said:

    The Ukraine thing is fucking scary. To be frank

    There are multiple ways it could spiral out of Putin's control into global conflict

    East European conflict yes. I don't see how it gets to global conflict.

    Pretty easy. A big Russian Ukraine war causes huge migration surges into the EU (almost certain). Poland and the Baltics will push back with weapons, as they surely must if millions try to move. Belarus and Russia will then fight back with weapons. = hot war between NATO and Russia (plus satellites).

    Bingo!

    And this is ignoring the possibility of Xi Jinping using this as the perfect time to take on Taiwan, etc, and many other unforeseen ripple effects
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Having marched its troops to the border, Russia now seems to be taken aback by the strength of the information weapon being used against it

    https://twitter.com/theeconomist/status/1494455631897632770?s=21
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,240
    Jonathan said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

    Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

    Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university
    So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University
    No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935
    Given British decline maybe it’s time look beyond Eton and Oxford. Just a thought.
    Yes we have not had a Harrovian PM since Churchill. Baldwin, Palmerston, Peel were all old Harrovians.

    Sunak would be our first Winchester educated PM since Henry Addington in the early 19th century.

    We also have not had a Cambridge educated PM since Baldwin
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    The Ukraine thing is fucking scary. To be frank

    There are multiple ways it could spiral out of Putin's control into global conflict

    It won't as long as NATO sticks to economic sanctions and not military action even if he does invade, given Ukraine is not in NATO
    It is hard to see how it is more scary than 2014, when Russia actually invaded Ukraine.
    The big difference is that there is now a meaningful response from the the NATO countries, long overdue.
  • vinovino Posts: 183
    dixiedean said:

    Labour win in Allerdale. Was an Indy. But this was a straight Labour Tory fight. No Indy or Green. So. A bit difficult to draw any conclusions. A wins a win, mind.

    Difficult as you say but it looks to be more happier from a tory viewpoint
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,449
    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

    Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

    Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university
    So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University
    No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935
    Winston Churchill in 1951 too. Not a University graduate.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,205
    Surprising Con gain in Oadby and Wigston.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

    Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

    Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university
    So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University
    No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935
    Though Brown, a graduate of Edinburgh, was not outright defeated by Oxford educated Cameron in 2010 and Oxford educated May failed to outright defeat non Oxford educated Corbyn in 2017. Note too non Oxford educated Churchill beat Oxford graduate Attlee in 1951.

    However a lot of general elections have been Oxford graduate v Oxford graduate eg 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1983, 2001 and 2015 or Oxford v Cambridge ie 2005, so Oxford or at least Oxbridge, could not lose those general elections anyway.
    Oxford does seem to let people down. It’s graduates to tend to go on about it a tad. Life somehow seems to stop there.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,449
    ExiledInScotland said:

    rottenborough said:

    Leon said:

    The Ukraine thing is fucking scary. To be frank

    There are multiple ways it could spiral out of Putin's control into global conflict

    East European conflict yes. I don't see how it gets to global conflict.

    If it spills over to the Baltic States or Poland...
    I don't think Russia will have much deployable army left over if they invade Ukraine again.
  • vinovino Posts: 183
    OADBY AND WIGSTON Wigston Meadowcourt

    Liz Darling (Conservative) 833
    Michael Phipps (Liberal Democrats) 377
    Joshua Pearman (Green) 133
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,757
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

    Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

    Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university
    So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University
    No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935
    Given British decline maybe it’s time look beyond Eton and Oxford. Just a thought.
    Yes we have not had a Harrovian PM since Churchill. Baldwin, Palmerston, Peel were all old Harrovians.

    Sunak would be our first Winchester educated PM since Henry Addington in the early 19th century.

    We also have not had a Cambridge educated PM since Baldwin
    Right. What about some state schools?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,240
    edited February 2022
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

    Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

    Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university
    So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University
    No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935
    Though Brown, a graduate of Edinburgh, was not outright defeated by Oxford educated Cameron in 2010 and Oxford educated May failed to outright defeat non Oxford educated Corbyn in 2017. Note too non Oxford educated Churchill beat Oxford graduate Attlee in 1951.

    However a lot of general elections have been Oxford graduate v Oxford graduate eg 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1983, 2001 and 2015 or Oxford v Cambridge ie 2005, so Oxford or at least Oxbridge, could not lose those general elections anyway.
    Oxford does seem to let people down. It’s graduates to tend to go on about it a tad. Life somehow seems to stop there.
    Unless you also become a self made multi-millionaire or a billionaire (or indeed PM) going to Oxford is probably the highlight of your life if you get in
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,688
    edited February 2022
    Spectacular Tory gain from the LDs in Oadby and Wigston on a swing of 26%. This was expected to be an easy LD hold.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,205
    Lab hold in Bristol.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

    Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

    Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university
    So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University
    No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935
    Though Brown, a graduate of Edinburgh, was not outright defeated by Oxford educated Cameron in 2010 and Oxford educated May failed to outright defeat non Oxford educated Corbyn in 2017. Note too non Oxford educated Churchill beat Oxford graduate Attlee in 1951.

    However a lot of general elections have been Oxford graduate v Oxford graduate eg 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1983, 2001 and 2015 or Oxford v Cambridge ie 2005, so Oxford or at least Oxbridge, could not lose those general elections anyway.
    Oxford does seem to let people down. It’s graduates to tend to go on about it a tad. Life somehow seems to stop there.
    Unless you also become a self made multi-millionare or a billionaire (or indeed PM) going to Oxford is probably the highlight of your life if you get in
    How sad.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,240
    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

    Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

    Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university
    So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University
    No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935
    Given British decline maybe it’s time look beyond Eton and Oxford. Just a thought.
    Yes we have not had a Harrovian PM since Churchill. Baldwin, Palmerston, Peel were all old Harrovians.

    Sunak would be our first Winchester educated PM since Henry Addington in the early 19th century.

    We also have not had a Cambridge educated PM since Baldwin
    Right. What about some state schools?
    They can also become PM if they get to Oxford eg Wilson, Heath, Thatcher, May and sometimes even if they don't eg Callaghan, Major and Brown
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,538
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    rottenborough said:

    Leon said:

    The Ukraine thing is fucking scary. To be frank

    There are multiple ways it could spiral out of Putin's control into global conflict

    East European conflict yes. I don't see how it gets to global conflict.

    Will somebody please hold Leon's hand until this has all blown over.

    Thanks.
    Urgh - any idea where it's been?
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 5,167
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

    Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

    Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university
    So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University
    No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935
    Though Brown, a graduate of Edinburgh, was not outright defeated by Oxford educated Cameron in 2010 and Oxford educated May failed to outright defeat non Oxford educated Corbyn in 2017. Note too non Oxford educated Churchill beat Oxford graduate Attlee in 1951.

    However a lot of general elections have been Oxford graduate v Oxford graduate eg 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1983, 2001 and 2015 or Oxford v Cambridge ie 2005, so Oxford or at least Oxbridge, could not lose those general elections anyway.
    Oxford does seem to let people down. It’s graduates to tend to go on about it a tad. Life somehow seems to stop there.
    Unless you also become a self made multi-millionare or a billionaire (or indeed PM) going to Oxford is probably the highlight of your life if you get in
    Does the same apply to Olympic gold medallists? Their life is over once they've won one?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,688
    edited February 2022
    "Bristol UA, Southmead

    Labour - 780
    Green - 728
    Con - 279
    Lib Dem - 82

    Labour HOLD"

    https://twitter.com/ALDC/status/1494458158504419329
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,449
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

    Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

    Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university
    So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University
    No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935
    Though Brown, a graduate of Edinburgh, was not outright defeated by Oxford educated Cameron in 2010 and Oxford educated May failed to outright defeat non Oxford educated Corbyn in 2017. Note too non Oxford educated Churchill beat Oxford graduate Attlee in 1951.

    However a lot of general elections have been Oxford graduate v Oxford graduate eg 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1983, 2001 and 2015 or Oxford v Cambridge ie 2005, so Oxford or at least Oxbridge, could not lose those general elections anyway.
    Oxford does seem to let people down. It’s graduates to tend to go on about it a tad. Life somehow seems to stop there.
    Unless you also become a self made multi-millionare or a billionaire (or indeed PM) going to Oxford is probably the highlight of your life if you get in
    What a depressing prospect, to peak aged 21.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,350
    vino said:

    dixiedean said:

    Labour win in Allerdale. Was an Indy. But this was a straight Labour Tory fight. No Indy or Green. So. A bit difficult to draw any conclusions. A wins a win, mind.

    Difficult as you say but it looks to be more happier from a tory viewpoint
    Possibly. However. Many rural Indys are basically Tories. That isn't always so mind.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,504
    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

    Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

    Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university
    Brown may never have won an election, but he was still PM, just as if Boris is replaced by eg Sunak who goes on to lose the following election (hypothetically) then Sunak would still have been PM.

    You don't need to win an election, to be PM.
  • vinovino Posts: 183
    Andy_JS said:

    "Bristol UA, Southmead

    Labour - 780
    Green - 728
    Con - 279
    Lib Dem - 82

    Labour HOLD"

    https://twitter.com/ALDC/status/1494458158504419329

    pact voting by the tories?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

    Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

    Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university
    So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University
    No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935
    Though Brown, a graduate of Edinburgh, was not outright defeated by Oxford educated Cameron in 2010 and Oxford educated May failed to outright defeat non Oxford educated Corbyn in 2017. Note too non Oxford educated Churchill beat Oxford graduate Attlee in 1951.

    However a lot of general elections have been Oxford graduate v Oxford graduate eg 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1983, 2001 and 2015 or Oxford v Cambridge ie 2005, so Oxford or at least Oxbridge, could not lose those general elections anyway.
    Oxford does seem to let people down. It’s graduates to tend to go on about it a tad. Life somehow seems to stop there.
    Unless you also become a self made multi-millionare or a billionaire (or indeed PM) going to Oxford is probably the highlight of your life if you get in
    What a depressing prospect, to peak aged 21.
    Sadly it’s believable given how much they go on about it. Can’t help think Oxford let’s people down if it insists it was the highlight of life.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,449
    Andy_JS said:

    Spectacular Tory gain from the LDs in Oadby and Wigston on a swing of 26%. This was expected to be an easy LD hold.

    Not according to the Britain elects summary:

    "Wigston Meadowcourt is one of the stronger Conservative wards in the district and was the only ward in either Oadby or Wigston to return a full slate of Tory councillors in 2007. However, the last Conservative seat in the ward disappeared in 2019, when the Lib Dems won here by a 52-34 margin. Robert Eaton, who passed away between Christmas and New Year, had served as a councillor here since 2011.

    The Lib Dems do have work to do to hold this one. Almost all of this ward is covered by the East Wigston division of Leicestershire county council, which the Tories came just 98 votes short of winning last year."

    https://www.britainelects.com/2022/02/17/previewing-the-council-by-elections-of-17-feb-2022/
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,670
    edited February 2022
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

    Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

    Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university
    So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University
    No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935
    Though Brown, a graduate of Edinburgh, was not outright defeated by Oxford educated Cameron in 2010 and Oxford educated May failed to outright defeat non Oxford educated Corbyn in 2017. Note too non Oxford educated Churchill beat Oxford graduate Attlee in 1951.

    However a lot of general elections have been Oxford graduate v Oxford graduate eg 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1983, 2001 and 2015 or Oxford v Cambridge ie 2005, so Oxford or at least Oxbridge, could not lose those general elections anyway.
    Oxford does seem to let people down. It’s graduates to tend to go on about it a tad. Life somehow seems to stop there.
    Unless you also become a self made multi-millionare or a billionaire (or indeed PM) going to Oxford is probably the highlight of your life if you get in
    What a depressing prospect, to peak aged 21.
    According to Cyril Connolly, it is even worse if you get into "Pop" at Eton, allowing you to parade around the school in a fancy waistcoat of your choice

    That means you peak at 17-18, because nothing is ever quite as fun again. Boris was in Pop, Cameron was not

    Tragic. Genuinely


    https://www.express.co.uk/expressyourself/235077/A-very-exclusive-club-called-pop
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,240
    Flatlander said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

    Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

    Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university
    So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University
    No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935
    Though Brown, a graduate of Edinburgh, was not outright defeated by Oxford educated Cameron in 2010 and Oxford educated May failed to outright defeat non Oxford educated Corbyn in 2017. Note too non Oxford educated Churchill beat Oxford graduate Attlee in 1951.

    However a lot of general elections have been Oxford graduate v Oxford graduate eg 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1983, 2001 and 2015 or Oxford v Cambridge ie 2005, so Oxford or at least Oxbridge, could not lose those general elections anyway.
    Oxford does seem to let people down. It’s graduates to tend to go on about it a tad. Life somehow seems to stop there.
    Unless you also become a self made multi-millionare or a billionaire (or indeed PM) going to Oxford is probably the highlight of your life if you get in
    Does the same apply to Olympic gold medallists? Their life is over once they've won one?
    In terms of peak yes, same with Oscar winners or World Cup winners
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    edited February 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Flatlander said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

    Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

    Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university
    So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University
    No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935
    Though Brown, a graduate of Edinburgh, was not outright defeated by Oxford educated Cameron in 2010 and Oxford educated May failed to outright defeat non Oxford educated Corbyn in 2017. Note too non Oxford educated Churchill beat Oxford graduate Attlee in 1951.

    However a lot of general elections have been Oxford graduate v Oxford graduate eg 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1983, 2001 and 2015 or Oxford v Cambridge ie 2005, so Oxford or at least Oxbridge, could not lose those general elections anyway.
    Oxford does seem to let people down. It’s graduates to tend to go on about it a tad. Life somehow seems to stop there.
    Unless you also become a self made multi-millionare or a billionaire (or indeed PM) going to Oxford is probably the highlight of your life if you get in
    Does the same apply to Olympic gold medallists? Their life is over once they've won one?
    In terms of peak yes, same with Oscar winners or World Cup winners
    Difference is winning an Oscar or an Olympic gold medal is an achievement.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,205
    Green hold in Suffolk.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,688
    Grimsby, Park ward:

    "Park Ward Labour Party Branch
    @LabourPark
    Tory 715
    Lab 578
    Lib Dem 478
    TUSC 70"

    https://twitter.com/LabourPark/status/1494459026767335426
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,670
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

    Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

    Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university
    So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University
    No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935
    Though Brown, a graduate of Edinburgh, was not outright defeated by Oxford educated Cameron in 2010 and Oxford educated May failed to outright defeat non Oxford educated Corbyn in 2017. Note too non Oxford educated Churchill beat Oxford graduate Attlee in 1951.

    However a lot of general elections have been Oxford graduate v Oxford graduate eg 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1983, 2001 and 2015 or Oxford v Cambridge ie 2005, so Oxford or at least Oxbridge, could not lose those general elections anyway.
    Oxford does seem to let people down. It’s graduates to tend to go on about it a tad. Life somehow seems to stop there.
    Unless you also become a self made multi-millionare or a billionaire (or indeed PM) going to Oxford is probably the highlight of your life if you get in
    How sad.
    One of the advantages of going to a pretty bog standard comp in a boring small town during a time of national decline is that everything has been better since. Even being a smack addict in London in the grimy squats of the 1980s was hugely better than being a bored teenager in tedious Hereford in the 1970s

    Upwards, ever upwards
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 5,167
    HYUFD said:

    Flatlander said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

    Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

    Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university
    So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University
    No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935
    Though Brown, a graduate of Edinburgh, was not outright defeated by Oxford educated Cameron in 2010 and Oxford educated May failed to outright defeat non Oxford educated Corbyn in 2017. Note too non Oxford educated Churchill beat Oxford graduate Attlee in 1951.

    However a lot of general elections have been Oxford graduate v Oxford graduate eg 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1983, 2001 and 2015 or Oxford v Cambridge ie 2005, so Oxford or at least Oxbridge, could not lose those general elections anyway.
    Oxford does seem to let people down. It’s graduates to tend to go on about it a tad. Life somehow seems to stop there.
    Unless you also become a self made multi-millionare or a billionaire (or indeed PM) going to Oxford is probably the highlight of your life if you get in
    Does the same apply to Olympic gold medallists? Their life is over once they've won one?
    In terms of peak yes, same with Oscar winners or World Cup winners
    Surely it is better to have done any of those than sat on the sofa for 30 years to 'avoid peaking too early'?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,688
    edited February 2022
    Some evidence tonight that the polling about Johnson being more popular in the Midlands could be right with the Wigston result.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,538
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Spectacular Tory gain from the LDs in Oadby and Wigston on a swing of 26%. This was expected to be an easy LD hold.

    Not according to the Britain elects summary:

    "Wigston Meadowcourt is one of the stronger Conservative wards in the district and was the only ward in either Oadby or Wigston to return a full slate of Tory councillors in 2007. However, the last Conservative seat in the ward disappeared in 2019, when the Lib Dems won here by a 52-34 margin. Robert Eaton, who passed away between Christmas and New Year, had served as a councillor here since 2011.

    The Lib Dems do have work to do to hold this one. Almost all of this ward is covered by the East Wigston division of Leicestershire county council, which the Tories came just 98 votes short of winning last year."

    https://www.britainelects.com/2022/02/17/previewing-the-council-by-elections-of-17-feb-2022/
    "which the Tories came just 98 votes short of winning last year"

    I mean, it's not like anything has happened to change things since last year......
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,410
    Leon said:

    Is it already happening?


    ⭕️Verification: Real-time network data show a significant disruption to internet connectivity in #Luhansk/ eastern #Ukraine

    https://twitter.com/L_Team10/status/1494454047297974276?s=20&t=VxhYH2mffktdaG_ZtGaeXw

    Perhaps not, this hit Vodafone only, was in a specific area (admittedly in the region of the conflict zone) and its reportedly come back up since.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 25,504
    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

    Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

    Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university
    So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University
    No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935
    But that's because the voters rejected the others, not because they didn't have the choice. And the next PM if its a change midterm won't be about a general election victory either, so that's not what it should be compared against.

    What would be interesting is a list of how many election losers did not go to Oxford? It seems to me that in my lifetime most opposition leaders who lost and never won an election didn't go to Oxford.

    Not Oxford:
    Corbyn
    Brown
    Howard
    Kinnock

    Oxford:
    Miliband
    Hague
    Foot
  • Gary_BurtonGary_Burton Posts: 737
    Shame that Oundle is counting tomorrow. On paper that looks like an outside chance of an LD gain although that one is hard to predict.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,688
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Spectacular Tory gain from the LDs in Oadby and Wigston on a swing of 26%. This was expected to be an easy LD hold.

    Not according to the Britain elects summary:

    "Wigston Meadowcourt is one of the stronger Conservative wards in the district and was the only ward in either Oadby or Wigston to return a full slate of Tory councillors in 2007. However, the last Conservative seat in the ward disappeared in 2019, when the Lib Dems won here by a 52-34 margin. Robert Eaton, who passed away between Christmas and New Year, had served as a councillor here since 2011.

    The Lib Dems do have work to do to hold this one. Almost all of this ward is covered by the East Wigston division of Leicestershire county council, which the Tories came just 98 votes short of winning last year."

    https://www.britainelects.com/2022/02/17/previewing-the-council-by-elections-of-17-feb-2022/
    The Tories haven't topped the poll in this ward for 15 years. The figures are on this page.

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/15955/local-council-elections-17th-february
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    Foxy said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    verst

    Oblast! Missed first again...
    But enough about Sunak...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    CarlottaVance said:

    Having marched its troops to the border, Russia now seems to be taken aback by the strength of the information weapon being used against it

    https://twitter.com/theeconomist/status/1494455631897632770?s=21

    It's not as though nations expect their statements and bald denials to be believed much of the time, even the 'good' nations wouldn't expect that. Russia's are particularly brazen and I think they've been so bold as to admit as much afterwards (I'm thinking of the troops arriving in Crimea before it voted I think), so why they'd be surprised I don't know. Key allies in such a venture - China, Belarus, Diane Abbott - will still profess to believe them, though only the latter probably means it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,240
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

    Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

    Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university
    So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University
    No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935
    But that's because the voters rejected the others, not because they didn't have the choice. And the next PM if its a change midterm won't be about a general election victory either, so that's not what it should be compared against.

    What would be interesting is a list of how many election losers did not go to Oxford? It seems to me that in my lifetime most opposition leaders who lost and never won an election didn't go to Oxford.

    Not Oxford:
    Corbyn
    Brown
    Howard
    Kinnock

    Oxford:
    Miliband
    Hague
    Foot
    Heath, Wilson, Home, Gaitskill, Attlee Oxford educated losers too before then. Though 3 of them won elections too
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,240
    edited February 2022
    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

    Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

    Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university
    So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University
    No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935
    Though Brown, a graduate of Edinburgh, was not outright defeated by Oxford educated Cameron in 2010 and Oxford educated May failed to outright defeat non Oxford educated Corbyn in 2017. Note too non Oxford educated Churchill beat Oxford graduate Attlee in 1951.

    However a lot of general elections have been Oxford graduate v Oxford graduate eg 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1983, 2001 and 2015 or Oxford v Cambridge ie 2005, so Oxford or at least Oxbridge, could not lose those general elections anyway.
    Oxford does seem to let people down. It’s graduates to tend to go on about it a tad. Life somehow seems to stop there.
    Unless you also become a self made multi-millionare or a billionaire (or indeed PM) going to Oxford is probably the highlight of your life if you get in
    How sad.
    One of the advantages of going to a pretty bog standard comp in a boring small town during a time of national decline is that everything has been better since. Even being a smack addict in London in the grimy squats of the 1980s was hugely better than being a bored teenager in tedious Hereford in the 1970s

    Upwards, ever upwards
    I lived in Hereford for a few years, it is a beautiful city in parts with a great Cathedral. It may not be London but it is also still a small city not a small town
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,400
    .
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

    Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

    Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university
    So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University
    No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935
    Though Brown, a graduate of Edinburgh, was not outright defeated by Oxford educated Cameron in 2010 and Oxford educated May failed to outright defeat non Oxford educated Corbyn in 2017. Note too non Oxford educated Churchill beat Oxford graduate Attlee in 1951.

    However a lot of general elections have been Oxford graduate v Oxford graduate eg 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1983, 2001 and 2015 or Oxford v Cambridge ie 2005, so Oxford or at least Oxbridge, could not lose those general elections anyway.
    Oxford does seem to let people down. It’s graduates to tend to go on about it a tad. Life somehow seems to stop there.
    Unless you also become a self made multi-millionare or a billionaire (or indeed PM) going to Oxford is probably the highlight of your life if you get in
    How sad.
    One of the advantages of going to a pretty bog standard comp in a boring small town during a time of national decline is that everything has been better since. Even being a smack addict in London in the grimy squats of the 1980s was hugely better than being a bored teenager in tedious Hereford in the 1970s

    Upwards, ever upwards
    I lived in Hereford for a few years, it is a beautiful city in parts with a great Cathedral. It may not be London but it is also still a small city not a small town
    I went to school in Ledbury. Hereford was best avoided for those of us who lived in a Worcester postcode. We were scared of the Deliverence style red necks from Tupsley, Madley and Canon Pyon shopping for scrumpy in Hightown on a Saturday.

    I can still hear the dualling banjos.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,741
    Andy_JS said:

    Grimsby, Park ward:

    "Park Ward Labour Party Branch
    @LabourPark
    Tory 715
    Lab 578
    Lib Dem 478
    TUSC 70"

    https://twitter.com/LabourPark/status/1494459026767335426

    Previous results (courtesy of Britain Elects) below ("one of the weakest Labour wards in Grimsby"). Not much sign of a progressive alliance there, but the Tory vote more than halved despite two right-wing fringe candidates not standing.

    May 2021 result C 1444 Lab 676 LD 450 TUSC 68 UKIP 57 Freedom Alliance 39
    May 2019 result C 1034 LD 781 Lab 491 UKIP 482
    May 2018 result C 1012 Lab 814 LD 788 UKIP 146
    May 2016 result LD 905 Lab 617 UKIP 586 C 541 Grn 124 TUSC 39
    May 2015 result LD 1745 Lab 1223 C 1144 UKIP 980 Grn 272 TUSC 63
    May 2014 result LD 867 UKIP 796 C 614 Lab 577 Grn 165 TUSC 42
    May 2012 result Lab 808 LD 696 C 655 UKIP 453 Grn 158
    May 2011 result LD 1463 C 1165 Lab 855
    May 2010 result LD 1832 C 1794 Lab 1413 UKIP 491
    May 2008 result LD 1261 C 1145 Lab 342 EDP 280
    May 2007 result LD 1471 C 677 Lab 356 Grn 286 BNP 285
    May 2006 result LD 1335 BNP 577 Lab 488 Grn 401
    June 2004 result LD 2430 Lab 791
    May 2003 result LD 2134/1666/1617 C 1030/890 Lab 567
    Previous results in detail
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,688
    Leon said:

    The Ukraine thing is fucking scary. To be frank

    There are multiple ways it could spiral out of Putin's control into global conflict

    It's scary that Peter Hitchens might be wrong about anything to do with Russia for the first time ever. He says Putin would be utterly mad to launch an attack.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,741
    vino said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Bristol UA, Southmead

    Labour - 780
    Green - 728
    Con - 279
    Lib Dem - 82

    Labour HOLD"

    https://twitter.com/ALDC/status/1494458158504419329

    pact voting by the tories?
    Yes, looks like Tory tactical votes for Greens, with LDs only making a token appearance here. The council is evenly dividid Lab/Green ('tis Bristol!)..

    Previous ones

    May 2021 result Lab 1147/1060 C 748/622 Grn 499/370 LD 266/188
    May 2016 result Lab 1461/1330 UKIP 482/371 C 477/385 LD 309/275 Grn 269

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,741
    vino said:

    OADBY AND WIGSTON Wigston Meadowcourt

    Liz Darling (Conservative) 833
    Michael Phipps (Liberal Democrats) 377
    Joshua Pearman (Green) 133

    Seriously good Tory result, wonder why? Again the progressive alliance notable by its absence, though Labour didn't stand at all.

    May 2019 result LD 891/857/847 C 587/531/460 Lab 246
    May 2015 result LD 1450/1214/869 C 1357 Ind 1156 Lab 480
    May 2011 result LD 1023/918/888 C 954/888/762
    May 2007 result C 935/921/825 LD 767/750/703
    November 2003 by-election C 806 LD 754
    May 2003 result C 764/733/548 LD 552/538/467
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,870
    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

    Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

    Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university
    So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University
    The point is that there hasn't been a graduate of a University other that Oxford who won a UK General Election since Baldwin nearly a century ago.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,741
    vino said:

    dixiedean said:

    Labour win in Allerdale. Was an Indy. But this was a straight Labour Tory fight. No Indy or Green. So. A bit difficult to draw any conclusions. A wins a win, mind.

    Difficult as you say but it looks to be more happier from a tory viewpoint
    May 2019 result Ind 439/363 Lab 310/257 C 180/137 Grn 121. BritainElect describes past shenanigans - there - sounds a bit of a special case. https://www.britainelects.com/2022/02/17/previewing-the-council-by-elections-of-17-feb-2022/
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,870
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

    Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

    Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university
    So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University
    No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935
    Though Brown, a graduate of Edinburgh, was not outright defeated by Oxford educated Cameron in 2010 and Oxford educated May failed to outright defeat non Oxford educated Corbyn in 2017. Note too non Oxford educated Churchill beat Oxford graduate Attlee in 1951.

    However a lot of general elections have been Oxford graduate v Oxford graduate eg 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1983, 2001 and 2015 or Oxford v Cambridge ie 2005, so Oxford or at least Oxbridge, could not lose those general elections anyway.
    Oxford does seem to let people down. It’s graduates to tend to go on about it a tad. Life somehow seems to stop there.
    Unless you also become a self made multi-millionaire or a billionaire (or indeed PM) going to Oxford is probably the highlight of your life if you get in
    I had a fantastic three years at Cambridge, and I've even been back for (one of) the reunions. And I still have some great friends from my time there.

    But it was not the highlight of my life.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,870
    Andy_JS said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Spectacular Tory gain from the LDs in Oadby and Wigston on a swing of 26%. This was expected to be an easy LD hold.

    Not according to the Britain elects summary:

    "Wigston Meadowcourt is one of the stronger Conservative wards in the district and was the only ward in either Oadby or Wigston to return a full slate of Tory councillors in 2007. However, the last Conservative seat in the ward disappeared in 2019, when the Lib Dems won here by a 52-34 margin. Robert Eaton, who passed away between Christmas and New Year, had served as a councillor here since 2011.

    The Lib Dems do have work to do to hold this one. Almost all of this ward is covered by the East Wigston division of Leicestershire county council, which the Tories came just 98 votes short of winning last year."

    https://www.britainelects.com/2022/02/17/previewing-the-council-by-elections-of-17-feb-2022/
    The Tories haven't topped the poll in this ward for 15 years. The figures are on this page.

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/15955/local-council-elections-17th-february
    It's a seriously impressive result - not just for the win, but also for the size of it.

    With that said, it's also entirely possible there are local factors of which we do not know.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,688
    "'He's going to do it': Whitehall is certain Putin will invade Ukraine and conflict will be 'horrendous' - after MoD reveals Moscow's 'battle plan' and US warns of 'moment of peril' - but Russia insists their troops are retreating"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10525105/How-Putin-Ukraine-MoD-reveal-Russias-battle-plan.html
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,440
    I think that Putin's war -- if it occurs -- will be bad for Russia, as well as Ukraine, and eastern Europe, generally. After the damage done by Communism, Russia needs decades of peace to heal, not more conflict, against a reluctant coalition, which has many times the resources that Russia does.

    An example of Putin's incompetence: When last I looked at excess deaths, Russia has about the same number of deaths from COVID as the United States (getting close to 1.2 million), with about 44 percent of the US population. And that is in spite of Russia having an effective vaccine, early.

    The US response to COVID is nothing to be proud of, though some states, Vermont, for instance, have done well, but Trump/Biden have done far better than Putin.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,348
    edited February 2022
    Red Warning for wind extended to London & South East England:

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-02-18&id=e772aed2-9ec5-490c-9b78-882b72b09304
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Spectacular Tory gain from the LDs in Oadby and Wigston on a swing of 26%. This was expected to be an easy LD hold.

    Not according to the Britain elects summary:

    "Wigston Meadowcourt is one of the stronger Conservative wards in the district and was the only ward in either Oadby or Wigston to return a full slate of Tory councillors in 2007. However, the last Conservative seat in the ward disappeared in 2019, when the Lib Dems won here by a 52-34 margin. Robert Eaton, who passed away between Christmas and New Year, had served as a councillor here since 2011.

    The Lib Dems do have work to do to hold this one. Almost all of this ward is covered by the East Wigston division of Leicestershire county council, which the Tories came just 98 votes short of winning last year."

    https://www.britainelects.com/2022/02/17/previewing-the-council-by-elections-of-17-feb-2022/
    The Tories haven't topped the poll in this ward for 15 years. The figures are on this page.

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/15955/local-council-elections-17th-february
    It's a seriously impressive result - not just for the win, but also for the size of it.

    With that said, it's also entirely possible there are local factors of which we do not know.
    With each passing week every Conservative success in swing or gain is always somehow a 'special circumstances' result.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    BREAKING NEWS The Met Office has issued a very rare RED weather warning - meaning a danger to life - for the whole of #Sussex as #StormEunice passes over.

    Between 10am and 3pm gale force winds are expected with gusts of up to 80mph.

    Read more here:
    https://metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-02-18&id=e772aed2-9ec5-490c-9b78-882b72b09304

    https://twitter.com/BBCSussex/status/1494541349172961307
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,099
    Morning all,

    Good luck to those in the path of Storm Eustice today, sounds like it’s going to be a bad one. Batten down the hatches and stay indoors.

    Looks like Putin is thinking about what to do with Ukraine, he’s marched his men to the top of the hill, and doesn’t want to lose face by marching them down again - but he knows that going in to Ukraine will meet with a strong military response, and the clock is ticking on the weather as the steppe starts to thaw.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,099
    edited February 2022
    Heathrow wind 210º 16kt. Looks like they’ve opened early for business, one Singapore A380 just landed, a BA A350 from Brazil right behind it, and another A350 from Dubai right behind that.

    I get the feeeling that, by mid morning, there are going to be long-haul planes scattered all over the place.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Sandpit said:

    Heathrow wind 210º 16kt. Looks like they’ve opened early for business, one Singapore A380 just landed, a BA A350 from Brazil right behind it, and another A350 from Dubai right behind that.

    I get the feeeling that, by mid morning, there are going to be long-haul planes scattered all over the place.

    There will be a lot of North American flights showing up early because of the tailwind - a lot of NY flights are crossing in 5 1/2 hours….
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,575
    edited February 2022
    CarlottaVance said:

    BREAKING NEWS The Met Office has issued a very rare RED weather warning - meaning a danger to life - for the whole of #Sussex as #StormEunice passes over.

    Between 10am and 3pm gale force winds are expected with gusts of up to 80mph.

    Read more here:
    https://metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-02-18&id=e772aed2-9ec5-490c-9b78-882b72b09304

    https://twitter.com/BBCSussex/status/1494541349172961307

    The BBC is still predicting Hurricane Sandy for Freshwater mid-morning, with predicted wind peaking at 115 mph
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,099
    edited February 2022
    CarlottaVance said:

    Sandpit said:

    Heathrow wind 210º 16kt. Looks like they’ve opened early for business, one Singapore A380 just landed, a BA A350 from Brazil right behind it, and another A350 from Dubai right behind that.

    I get the feeeling that, by mid morning, there are going to be long-haul planes scattered all over the place.

    There will be a lot of North American flights showing up early because of the tailwind - a lot of NY flights are crossing in 5 1/2 hours….
    Indeed. I know they build some slack into modern schedules, but the BA Santiago arrival landing now made the journey in 100 minutes less than advertised! The Dallas arrival behind that has made up 75 minutes on the schedule.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,538
    edited February 2022
    For visual representation of swell, winds, pressure, surf (!):

    https://magicseaweed.com/North-Atlantic-Surf-Chart/2/?type=wind&timestamp=1645174800
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,602
    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

    Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

    Indeed. Starmer did his undergrad years at easily the finest HE institution in the UK. :smile:

    I never knew he was at Aber!
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