Sunak slipping down in the “Next PM” betting – politicalbetting.com

System

Sunak slipping down in the “Next PM” betting – politicalbetting.com

AS can be seen from the chart there has been a sharp decline in the next PM betting price of Chancellor Sunak on the Betfair betting exchange. This, I guess, is being driven by the growing realisation that there might not be an immediate vacancy.

Read the full story here

SeaShantyIrish2

verst

Foxy

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

verst

Oblast! Missed first again...

Yokes

Ukraine

Of all the events of today, the most worrying so far hasn't been the uptick of fighting on the Eastern contact line or the patent prep talk by the Russians (awaiting the digging up of a lot of bones in a mass grave somewhere). Its the appearance of two of the three RAFs Rivet Joint signals gathering aircraft over Ukraine at one time and sight of comms relays and battlefield electronic warfare kit being popped up on the Russian side of the border.

IanB2

Fourth

slade

Looks like a Lab gain in Allerdale.

Gary_Burton

I think Mordaunt is a plausible long shot.

I can't see how the Tory membership would vote for Hunt or Tugendhat.

rottenborough

Whitehall thinks Putin will invade reports Times. He's made his mind up. It will be "horrendous".

MarqueeMark

Rishi still way ahead of anyone else......

IanB2

Gary_Burton said:

I think Mordaunt is a plausible long shot.

I can't see how the Tory membership would vote for Hunt or Tugendhat.

If it happens soon (which is still a big if) I can see scenarios where it never gets to the members.

rottenborough

IanB2 said:

Gary_Burton said:

I think Mordaunt is a plausible long shot.

I can't see how the Tory membership would vote for Hunt or Tugendhat.

If it happens soon (which is still a big if) I can see scenarios where it never gets to the members.

it's not going to happen any time soon. johnson has weathered the storm. and now ukr is about to ko.

HYUFD

The more the Tories close the gap with Labour in the polls and the better they do in May's local elections, the worse Sunak's chances of being next PM rather than Starmer.

If Boris actually recovers to win the next general election and beat Starmer the next PM might not even be either, it could be Andy Burnham for instance, who is on QT tonight and would be back in the Commons again after the next election

Jonathan

Sunak blew it. You rarely get a second chance. Lacks Boris’ killer instinct.

HYUFD

Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

FrankBooth

rottenborough said:

Whitehall thinks Putin will invade reports Times. He's made his mind up. It will be "horrendous".

Well possibly. But we know a good deal of work has gone into making sure if anything kicks off Putin can't blame Ukrainian provocation.

CarlottaVance

21:00 UTC: pressure down to 979mb this appears deeper than forecast that’s not very reassuring.

https://twitter.com/TheSnowDreamer/status/1494422724088934404

IanB2

HYUFD said:

The more the Tories close the gap with Labour in the polls and the better they do in May's local elections, the worse Sunak's chances of being next PM.

If Boris actually recovers to win the next general election and beat Starmer the next PM might not even be either, it could be Andy Burnham for instance, who is on QT tonight and would be back in the Commons again after the next election

Dream on

MikeSmithson

HYUFD said:

Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university

Leon

The Ukraine thing is fucking scary. To be frank

There are multiple ways it could spiral out of Putin's control into global conflict

HYUFD

Jonathan said:

Sunak blew it. You rarely get a second chance. Lacks Boris’ killer instinct.

He may well be the next Michael Portillo or David Miliband, 2 Crown Princes who also dithered and failed to challenge a weakened PM in 1995 and 2009 respectively.

In the end Blair and Cameron delivered the killer blows to Major and Brown at the 1997 and 2010 general elections and Miliband and Portillo failed to even be elected Leaders of the Opposition let alone PM

rottenborough

HYUFD said:

Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

Indeed. Starmer did his undergrad years at easily the finest HE institution in the UK.

Andy_JS

O/T

Would anyone like to defend the New York Times' banning of the word "slave" from Wordle?

https://www.newsweek.com/wordle-bans-slave-new-york-times-offensive-words-banned-removed-1679793

Leon

Andy_JS said:

O/T

Would anyone like to defend the New York Times' banning of the word "slave" from Wordle?

They've bought a word game which they now intend to destroy because of their Wokeness. It is sublime

ExiledInScotland

Yokes said:

Ukraine

Of all the events of today, the most worrying so far hasn't been the uptick of fighting on the Eastern contact line or the patent prep talk by the Russians (awaiting the digging up of a lot of bones in a mass grave somewhere). Its the appearance of two of the three RAFs Rivet Joint signals gathering aircraft over Ukraine at one time and sight of comms relays and battlefield electronic warfare kit being popped up on the Russian side of the border.

Flightradar24 just has one plane showing in Ukrainian airspace - a US drone

https://www.flightradar24.com/XCCRM/2ad9a688

HYUFD

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university

So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University

Foxy

Andy_JS said:

O/T

Would anyone like to defend the New York Times' banning of the word "slave" from Wordle?

They bought it and can do what they like with it.

I couldn't care less, it is the most boring craze for quite some time.

Leon

Is it already happening?


⭕️Verification: Real-time network data show a significant disruption to internet connectivity in #Luhansk/ eastern #Ukraine

https://twitter.com/L_Team10/status/1494454047297974276?s=20&t=VxhYH2mffktdaG_ZtGaeXw

MikeSmithson

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university

So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University

No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935

HYUFD

Leon said:

The Ukraine thing is fucking scary. To be frank

There are multiple ways it could spiral out of Putin's control into global conflict

It won't as long as NATO sticks to economic sanctions and not military action even if he does invade, given Ukraine is not in NATO

rottenborough

Leon said:

The Ukraine thing is fucking scary. To be frank

There are multiple ways it could spiral out of Putin's control into global conflict

East European conflict yes. I don't see how it gets to global conflict.

Jonathan

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university

So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University

No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935

Given British decline maybe it’s time look beyond Eton and Oxford. Just a thought.

dixiedean

Labour win in Allerdale. Was an Indy. But this was a straight Labour Tory fight. No Indy or Green. So. A bit difficult to draw any conclusions. A wins a win, mind.

ExiledInScotland

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

The Ukraine thing is fucking scary. To be frank

There are multiple ways it could spiral out of Putin's control into global conflict

East European conflict yes. I don't see how it gets to global conflict.

If it spills over to the Baltic States or Poland...

darkage

ExiledInScotland said:

Yokes said:

Ukraine

Of all the events of today, the most worrying so far hasn't been the uptick of fighting on the Eastern contact line or the patent prep talk by the Russians (awaiting the digging up of a lot of bones in a mass grave somewhere). Its the appearance of two of the three RAFs Rivet Joint signals gathering aircraft over Ukraine at one time and sight of comms relays and battlefield electronic warfare kit being popped up on the Russian side of the border.

Flightradar24 just has one plane showing in Ukrainian airspace - a US drone

https://www.flightradar24.com/XCCRM/2ad9a688

There isn't a single plane over finland either - I think it is probably due to the fact it is 1.30 am in the morning over there.

dixiedean

Jonathan said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university

So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University

No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935

Given British decline maybe it’s time look beyond Eton and Oxford. Just a thought.

Christ!
Take care what you wish for.

HYUFD

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university

So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University

No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935

Though Brown, a graduate of Edinburgh, was not outright defeated by Oxford educated Cameron in 2010 and Oxford educated May failed to outright defeat non Oxford educated Corbyn in 2017. Note too non Oxford educated Churchill beat Oxford graduate Attlee in 1951.

However a lot of general elections have been Oxford graduate v Oxford graduate eg 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1983, 2001 and 2015 or Oxford v Cambridge ie 2005, so Oxford or at least Oxbridge, could not lose those general elections anyway.

Peter_the_Punter

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

The Ukraine thing is fucking scary. To be frank

There are multiple ways it could spiral out of Putin's control into global conflict

East European conflict yes. I don't see how it gets to global conflict.

Will somebody please hold Leon's hand until this has all blown over.

Thanks.

Leon

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

The Ukraine thing is fucking scary. To be frank

There are multiple ways it could spiral out of Putin's control into global conflict

East European conflict yes. I don't see how it gets to global conflict.

Pretty easy. A big Russian Ukraine war causes huge migration surges into the EU (almost certain). Poland and the Baltics will push back with weapons, as they surely must if millions try to move. Belarus and Russia will then fight back with weapons. = hot war between NATO and Russia (plus satellites).

Bingo!

And this is ignoring the possibility of Xi Jinping using this as the perfect time to take on Taiwan, etc, and many other unforeseen ripple effects

CarlottaVance

Having marched its troops to the border, Russia now seems to be taken aback by the strength of the information weapon being used against it

https://twitter.com/theeconomist/status/1494455631897632770?s=21

HYUFD

Jonathan said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university

So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University

No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935

Given British decline maybe it’s time look beyond Eton and Oxford. Just a thought.

Yes we have not had a Harrovian PM since Churchill. Baldwin, Palmerston, Peel were all old Harrovians.

Sunak would be our first Winchester educated PM since Henry Addington in the early 19th century.

We also have not had a Cambridge educated PM since Baldwin

darkage

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

The Ukraine thing is fucking scary. To be frank

There are multiple ways it could spiral out of Putin's control into global conflict

It won't as long as NATO sticks to economic sanctions and not military action even if he does invade, given Ukraine is not in NATO

It is hard to see how it is more scary than 2014, when Russia actually invaded Ukraine.
The big difference is that there is now a meaningful response from the the NATO countries, long overdue.

vino

dixiedean said:

Labour win in Allerdale. Was an Indy. But this was a straight Labour Tory fight. No Indy or Green. So. A bit difficult to draw any conclusions. A wins a win, mind.

Difficult as you say but it looks to be more happier from a tory viewpoint

Foxy

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university

So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University

No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935

Winston Churchill in 1951 too. Not a University graduate.

slade

Surprising Con gain in Oadby and Wigston.

Jonathan

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university

So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University

No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935

Though Brown, a graduate of Edinburgh, was not outright defeated by Oxford educated Cameron in 2010 and Oxford educated May failed to outright defeat non Oxford educated Corbyn in 2017. Note too non Oxford educated Churchill beat Oxford graduate Attlee in 1951.

However a lot of general elections have been Oxford graduate v Oxford graduate eg 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1983, 2001 and 2015 or Oxford v Cambridge ie 2005, so Oxford or at least Oxbridge, could not lose those general elections anyway.

Oxford does seem to let people down. It’s graduates to tend to go on about it a tad. Life somehow seems to stop there.

Foxy

ExiledInScotland said:

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

The Ukraine thing is fucking scary. To be frank

There are multiple ways it could spiral out of Putin's control into global conflict

East European conflict yes. I don't see how it gets to global conflict.

If it spills over to the Baltic States or Poland...

I don't think Russia will have much deployable army left over if they invade Ukraine again.

vino

OADBY AND WIGSTON Wigston Meadowcourt

Liz Darling (Conservative) 833
Michael Phipps (Liberal Democrats) 377
Joshua Pearman (Green) 133

Gallowgate

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university

So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University

No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935

Given British decline maybe it’s time look beyond Eton and Oxford. Just a thought.

Yes we have not had a Harrovian PM since Churchill. Baldwin, Palmerston, Peel were all old Harrovians.

Sunak would be our first Winchester educated PM since Henry Addington in the early 19th century.

We also have not had a Cambridge educated PM since Baldwin

Right. What about some state schools?

HYUFD

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university

So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University

No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935

Though Brown, a graduate of Edinburgh, was not outright defeated by Oxford educated Cameron in 2010 and Oxford educated May failed to outright defeat non Oxford educated Corbyn in 2017. Note too non Oxford educated Churchill beat Oxford graduate Attlee in 1951.

However a lot of general elections have been Oxford graduate v Oxford graduate eg 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1983, 2001 and 2015 or Oxford v Cambridge ie 2005, so Oxford or at least Oxbridge, could not lose those general elections anyway.

Oxford does seem to let people down. It’s graduates to tend to go on about it a tad. Life somehow seems to stop there.

Unless you also become a self made multi-millionaire or a billionaire (or indeed PM) going to Oxford is probably the highlight of your life if you get in

Andy_JS

Spectacular Tory gain from the LDs in Oadby and Wigston on a swing of 26%. This was expected to be an easy LD hold.

slade

Lab hold in Bristol.

Jonathan

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university

So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University

No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935

Though Brown, a graduate of Edinburgh, was not outright defeated by Oxford educated Cameron in 2010 and Oxford educated May failed to outright defeat non Oxford educated Corbyn in 2017. Note too non Oxford educated Churchill beat Oxford graduate Attlee in 1951.

However a lot of general elections have been Oxford graduate v Oxford graduate eg 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1983, 2001 and 2015 or Oxford v Cambridge ie 2005, so Oxford or at least Oxbridge, could not lose those general elections anyway.

Oxford does seem to let people down. It’s graduates to tend to go on about it a tad. Life somehow seems to stop there.

Unless you also become a self made multi-millionare or a billionaire (or indeed PM) going to Oxford is probably the highlight of your life if you get in

How sad.

HYUFD

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university

So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University

No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935

Given British decline maybe it’s time look beyond Eton and Oxford. Just a thought.

Yes we have not had a Harrovian PM since Churchill. Baldwin, Palmerston, Peel were all old Harrovians.

Sunak would be our first Winchester educated PM since Henry Addington in the early 19th century.

We also have not had a Cambridge educated PM since Baldwin

Right. What about some state schools?

They can also become PM if they get to Oxford eg Wilson, Heath, Thatcher, May and sometimes even if they don't eg Callaghan, Major and Brown

MarqueeMark

Peter_the_Punter said:

rottenborough said:

Leon said:

The Ukraine thing is fucking scary. To be frank

There are multiple ways it could spiral out of Putin's control into global conflict

East European conflict yes. I don't see how it gets to global conflict.

Will somebody please hold Leon's hand until this has all blown over.

Thanks.

Urgh - any idea where it's been?

Flatlander

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university

So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University

No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935

Though Brown, a graduate of Edinburgh, was not outright defeated by Oxford educated Cameron in 2010 and Oxford educated May failed to outright defeat non Oxford educated Corbyn in 2017. Note too non Oxford educated Churchill beat Oxford graduate Attlee in 1951.

However a lot of general elections have been Oxford graduate v Oxford graduate eg 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1983, 2001 and 2015 or Oxford v Cambridge ie 2005, so Oxford or at least Oxbridge, could not lose those general elections anyway.

Oxford does seem to let people down. It’s graduates to tend to go on about it a tad. Life somehow seems to stop there.

Unless you also become a self made multi-millionare or a billionaire (or indeed PM) going to Oxford is probably the highlight of your life if you get in

Does the same apply to Olympic gold medallists? Their life is over once they've won one?

Andy_JS

"Bristol UA, Southmead

Labour - 780
Green - 728
Con - 279
Lib Dem - 82

Labour HOLD"

https://twitter.com/ALDC/status/1494458158504419329

Foxy

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university

So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University

No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935

Though Brown, a graduate of Edinburgh, was not outright defeated by Oxford educated Cameron in 2010 and Oxford educated May failed to outright defeat non Oxford educated Corbyn in 2017. Note too non Oxford educated Churchill beat Oxford graduate Attlee in 1951.

However a lot of general elections have been Oxford graduate v Oxford graduate eg 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1983, 2001 and 2015 or Oxford v Cambridge ie 2005, so Oxford or at least Oxbridge, could not lose those general elections anyway.

Oxford does seem to let people down. It’s graduates to tend to go on about it a tad. Life somehow seems to stop there.

Unless you also become a self made multi-millionare or a billionaire (or indeed PM) going to Oxford is probably the highlight of your life if you get in

What a depressing prospect, to peak aged 21.

dixiedean

vino said:

dixiedean said:

Labour win in Allerdale. Was an Indy. But this was a straight Labour Tory fight. No Indy or Green. So. A bit difficult to draw any conclusions. A wins a win, mind.

Difficult as you say but it looks to be more happier from a tory viewpoint

Possibly. However. Many rural Indys are basically Tories. That isn't always so mind.

BartholomewRoberts

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university

Brown may never have won an election, but he was still PM, just as if Boris is replaced by eg Sunak who goes on to lose the following election (hypothetically) then Sunak would still have been PM.

You don't need to win an election, to be PM.

vino

Andy_JS said:

"Bristol UA, Southmead

Labour - 780
Green - 728
Con - 279
Lib Dem - 82

Labour HOLD"

https://twitter.com/ALDC/status/1494458158504419329

pact voting by the tories?

Jonathan

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university

So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University

No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935

Though Brown, a graduate of Edinburgh, was not outright defeated by Oxford educated Cameron in 2010 and Oxford educated May failed to outright defeat non Oxford educated Corbyn in 2017. Note too non Oxford educated Churchill beat Oxford graduate Attlee in 1951.

However a lot of general elections have been Oxford graduate v Oxford graduate eg 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1983, 2001 and 2015 or Oxford v Cambridge ie 2005, so Oxford or at least Oxbridge, could not lose those general elections anyway.

Oxford does seem to let people down. It’s graduates to tend to go on about it a tad. Life somehow seems to stop there.

Unless you also become a self made multi-millionare or a billionaire (or indeed PM) going to Oxford is probably the highlight of your life if you get in

What a depressing prospect, to peak aged 21.

Sadly it’s believable given how much they go on about it. Can’t help think Oxford let’s people down if it insists it was the highlight of life.

Foxy

Andy_JS said:

Spectacular Tory gain from the LDs in Oadby and Wigston on a swing of 26%. This was expected to be an easy LD hold.

Not according to the Britain elects summary:

"Wigston Meadowcourt is one of the stronger Conservative wards in the district and was the only ward in either Oadby or Wigston to return a full slate of Tory councillors in 2007. However, the last Conservative seat in the ward disappeared in 2019, when the Lib Dems won here by a 52-34 margin. Robert Eaton, who passed away between Christmas and New Year, had served as a councillor here since 2011.

The Lib Dems do have work to do to hold this one. Almost all of this ward is covered by the East Wigston division of Leicestershire county council, which the Tories came just 98 votes short of winning last year."

https://www.britainelects.com/2022/02/17/previewing-the-council-by-elections-of-17-feb-2022/

Leon

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university

So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University

No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935

Though Brown, a graduate of Edinburgh, was not outright defeated by Oxford educated Cameron in 2010 and Oxford educated May failed to outright defeat non Oxford educated Corbyn in 2017. Note too non Oxford educated Churchill beat Oxford graduate Attlee in 1951.

However a lot of general elections have been Oxford graduate v Oxford graduate eg 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1983, 2001 and 2015 or Oxford v Cambridge ie 2005, so Oxford or at least Oxbridge, could not lose those general elections anyway.

Oxford does seem to let people down. It’s graduates to tend to go on about it a tad. Life somehow seems to stop there.

Unless you also become a self made multi-millionare or a billionaire (or indeed PM) going to Oxford is probably the highlight of your life if you get in

What a depressing prospect, to peak aged 21.

According to Cyril Connolly, it is even worse if you get into "Pop" at Eton, allowing you to parade around the school in a fancy waistcoat of your choice

That means you peak at 17-18, because nothing is ever quite as fun again. Boris was in Pop, Cameron was not

Tragic. Genuinely


https://www.express.co.uk/expressyourself/235077/A-very-exclusive-club-called-pop

HYUFD

Flatlander said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university

So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University

No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935

Though Brown, a graduate of Edinburgh, was not outright defeated by Oxford educated Cameron in 2010 and Oxford educated May failed to outright defeat non Oxford educated Corbyn in 2017. Note too non Oxford educated Churchill beat Oxford graduate Attlee in 1951.

However a lot of general elections have been Oxford graduate v Oxford graduate eg 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1983, 2001 and 2015 or Oxford v Cambridge ie 2005, so Oxford or at least Oxbridge, could not lose those general elections anyway.

Oxford does seem to let people down. It’s graduates to tend to go on about it a tad. Life somehow seems to stop there.

Unless you also become a self made multi-millionare or a billionaire (or indeed PM) going to Oxford is probably the highlight of your life if you get in

Does the same apply to Olympic gold medallists? Their life is over once they've won one?

In terms of peak yes, same with Oscar winners or World Cup winners

Jonathan

HYUFD said:

Flatlander said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university

So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University

No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935

Though Brown, a graduate of Edinburgh, was not outright defeated by Oxford educated Cameron in 2010 and Oxford educated May failed to outright defeat non Oxford educated Corbyn in 2017. Note too non Oxford educated Churchill beat Oxford graduate Attlee in 1951.

However a lot of general elections have been Oxford graduate v Oxford graduate eg 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1983, 2001 and 2015 or Oxford v Cambridge ie 2005, so Oxford or at least Oxbridge, could not lose those general elections anyway.

Oxford does seem to let people down. It’s graduates to tend to go on about it a tad. Life somehow seems to stop there.

Unless you also become a self made multi-millionare or a billionaire (or indeed PM) going to Oxford is probably the highlight of your life if you get in

Does the same apply to Olympic gold medallists? Their life is over once they've won one?

In terms of peak yes, same with Oscar winners or World Cup winners

Difference is winning an Oscar or an Olympic gold medal is an achievement.

slade

Green hold in Suffolk.

Andy_JS

Grimsby, Park ward:

"Park Ward Labour Party Branch
@LabourPark
Tory 715
Lab 578
Lib Dem 478
TUSC 70"

https://twitter.com/LabourPark/status/1494459026767335426

Leon

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university

So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University

No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935

Though Brown, a graduate of Edinburgh, was not outright defeated by Oxford educated Cameron in 2010 and Oxford educated May failed to outright defeat non Oxford educated Corbyn in 2017. Note too non Oxford educated Churchill beat Oxford graduate Attlee in 1951.

However a lot of general elections have been Oxford graduate v Oxford graduate eg 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1983, 2001 and 2015 or Oxford v Cambridge ie 2005, so Oxford or at least Oxbridge, could not lose those general elections anyway.

Oxford does seem to let people down. It’s graduates to tend to go on about it a tad. Life somehow seems to stop there.

Unless you also become a self made multi-millionare or a billionaire (or indeed PM) going to Oxford is probably the highlight of your life if you get in

How sad.

One of the advantages of going to a pretty bog standard comp in a boring small town during a time of national decline is that everything has been better since. Even being a smack addict in London in the grimy squats of the 1980s was hugely better than being a bored teenager in tedious Hereford in the 1970s

Upwards, ever upwards

Flatlander

HYUFD said:

Flatlander said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university

So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University

No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935

Though Brown, a graduate of Edinburgh, was not outright defeated by Oxford educated Cameron in 2010 and Oxford educated May failed to outright defeat non Oxford educated Corbyn in 2017. Note too non Oxford educated Churchill beat Oxford graduate Attlee in 1951.

However a lot of general elections have been Oxford graduate v Oxford graduate eg 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1983, 2001 and 2015 or Oxford v Cambridge ie 2005, so Oxford or at least Oxbridge, could not lose those general elections anyway.

Oxford does seem to let people down. It’s graduates to tend to go on about it a tad. Life somehow seems to stop there.

Unless you also become a self made multi-millionare or a billionaire (or indeed PM) going to Oxford is probably the highlight of your life if you get in

Does the same apply to Olympic gold medallists? Their life is over once they've won one?

In terms of peak yes, same with Oscar winners or World Cup winners

Surely it is better to have done any of those than sat on the sofa for 30 years to 'avoid peaking too early'?

Andy_JS

Some evidence tonight that the polling about Johnson being more popular in the Midlands could be right with the Wigston result.

MarqueeMark

Foxy said:

Andy_JS said:

Spectacular Tory gain from the LDs in Oadby and Wigston on a swing of 26%. This was expected to be an easy LD hold.

Not according to the Britain elects summary:

"Wigston Meadowcourt is one of the stronger Conservative wards in the district and was the only ward in either Oadby or Wigston to return a full slate of Tory councillors in 2007. However, the last Conservative seat in the ward disappeared in 2019, when the Lib Dems won here by a 52-34 margin. Robert Eaton, who passed away between Christmas and New Year, had served as a councillor here since 2011.

The Lib Dems do have work to do to hold this one. Almost all of this ward is covered by the East Wigston division of Leicestershire county council, which the Tories came just 98 votes short of winning last year."

https://www.britainelects.com/2022/02/17/previewing-the-council-by-elections-of-17-feb-2022/

"which the Tories came just 98 votes short of winning last year"

I mean, it's not like anything has happened to change things since last year......

Yokes

Leon said:

Is it already happening?


⭕️Verification: Real-time network data show a significant disruption to internet connectivity in #Luhansk/ eastern #Ukraine

https://twitter.com/L_Team10/status/1494454047297974276?s=20&t=VxhYH2mffktdaG_ZtGaeXw

Perhaps not, this hit Vodafone only, was in a specific area (admittedly in the region of the conflict zone) and its reportedly come back up since.

BartholomewRoberts

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university

So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University

No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935

But that's because the voters rejected the others, not because they didn't have the choice. And the next PM if its a change midterm won't be about a general election victory either, so that's not what it should be compared against.

What would be interesting is a list of how many election losers did not go to Oxford? It seems to me that in my lifetime most opposition leaders who lost and never won an election didn't go to Oxford.

Not Oxford:
Corbyn
Brown
Howard
Kinnock

Oxford:
Miliband
Hague
Foot

Gary_Burton

Shame that Oundle is counting tomorrow. On paper that looks like an outside chance of an LD gain although that one is hard to predict.

Andy_JS

Foxy said:

Andy_JS said:

Spectacular Tory gain from the LDs in Oadby and Wigston on a swing of 26%. This was expected to be an easy LD hold.

Not according to the Britain elects summary:

"Wigston Meadowcourt is one of the stronger Conservative wards in the district and was the only ward in either Oadby or Wigston to return a full slate of Tory councillors in 2007. However, the last Conservative seat in the ward disappeared in 2019, when the Lib Dems won here by a 52-34 margin. Robert Eaton, who passed away between Christmas and New Year, had served as a councillor here since 2011.

The Lib Dems do have work to do to hold this one. Almost all of this ward is covered by the East Wigston division of Leicestershire county council, which the Tories came just 98 votes short of winning last year."

https://www.britainelects.com/2022/02/17/previewing-the-council-by-elections-of-17-feb-2022/

The Tories haven't topped the poll in this ward for 15 years. The figures are on this page.

https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/15955/local-council-elections-17th-february

kle4

Foxy said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

verst

Oblast! Missed first again...

But enough about Sunak...

kle4

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university

So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University

No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935

Though Brown, a graduate of Edinburgh, was not outright defeated by Oxford educated Cameron in 2010 and Oxford educated May failed to outright defeat non Oxford educated Corbyn in 2017. Note too non Oxford educated Churchill beat Oxford graduate Attlee in 1951.

However a lot of general elections have been Oxford graduate v Oxford graduate eg 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1983, 2001 and 2015 or Oxford v Cambridge ie 2005, so Oxford or at least Oxbridge, could not lose those general elections anyway.

Oxford does seem to let people down. It’s graduates to tend to go on about it a tad. Life somehow seems to stop there.

Unless you also become a self made multi-millionare or a billionaire (or indeed PM) going to Oxford is probably the highlight of your life if you get in

What a depressing prospect, to peak aged 21.

You think that's depressing? Some of us never peak at all. All trough baby!

kle4

CarlottaVance said:

Having marched its troops to the border, Russia now seems to be taken aback by the strength of the information weapon being used against it

https://twitter.com/theeconomist/status/1494455631897632770?s=21

It's not as though nations expect their statements and bald denials to be believed much of the time, even the 'good' nations wouldn't expect that. Russia's are particularly brazen and I think they've been so bold as to admit as much afterwards (I'm thinking of the troops arriving in Crimea before it voted I think), so why they'd be surprised I don't know. Key allies in such a venture - China, Belarus, Diane Abbott - will still profess to believe them, though only the latter probably means it.

HYUFD

BartholomewRoberts said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university

So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University

No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935

But that's because the voters rejected the others, not because they didn't have the choice. And the next PM if its a change midterm won't be about a general election victory either, so that's not what it should be compared against.

What would be interesting is a list of how many election losers did not go to Oxford? It seems to me that in my lifetime most opposition leaders who lost and never won an election didn't go to Oxford.

Not Oxford:
Corbyn
Brown
Howard
Kinnock

Oxford:
Miliband
Hague
Foot

Heath, Wilson, Home, Gaitskill, Attlee Oxford educated losers too before then. Though 3 of them won elections too

HYUFD

Leon said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university

So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University

No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935

Though Brown, a graduate of Edinburgh, was not outright defeated by Oxford educated Cameron in 2010 and Oxford educated May failed to outright defeat non Oxford educated Corbyn in 2017. Note too non Oxford educated Churchill beat Oxford graduate Attlee in 1951.

However a lot of general elections have been Oxford graduate v Oxford graduate eg 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1983, 2001 and 2015 or Oxford v Cambridge ie 2005, so Oxford or at least Oxbridge, could not lose those general elections anyway.

Oxford does seem to let people down. It’s graduates to tend to go on about it a tad. Life somehow seems to stop there.

Unless you also become a self made multi-millionare or a billionaire (or indeed PM) going to Oxford is probably the highlight of your life if you get in

How sad.

One of the advantages of going to a pretty bog standard comp in a boring small town during a time of national decline is that everything has been better since. Even being a smack addict in London in the grimy squats of the 1980s was hugely better than being a bored teenager in tedious Hereford in the 1970s

Upwards, ever upwards

I lived in Hereford for a few years, it is a beautiful city in parts with a great Cathedral. It may not be London but it is also still a small city not a small town

Mexicanpete

.

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university

So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University

No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935

Though Brown, a graduate of Edinburgh, was not outright defeated by Oxford educated Cameron in 2010 and Oxford educated May failed to outright defeat non Oxford educated Corbyn in 2017. Note too non Oxford educated Churchill beat Oxford graduate Attlee in 1951.

However a lot of general elections have been Oxford graduate v Oxford graduate eg 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1983, 2001 and 2015 or Oxford v Cambridge ie 2005, so Oxford or at least Oxbridge, could not lose those general elections anyway.

Oxford does seem to let people down. It’s graduates to tend to go on about it a tad. Life somehow seems to stop there.

Unless you also become a self made multi-millionare or a billionaire (or indeed PM) going to Oxford is probably the highlight of your life if you get in

How sad.

One of the advantages of going to a pretty bog standard comp in a boring small town during a time of national decline is that everything has been better since. Even being a smack addict in London in the grimy squats of the 1980s was hugely better than being a bored teenager in tedious Hereford in the 1970s

Upwards, ever upwards

I lived in Hereford for a few years, it is a beautiful city in parts with a great Cathedral. It may not be London but it is also still a small city not a small town

I went to school in Ledbury. Hereford was best avoided for those of us who lived in a Worcester postcode. We were scared of the Deliverence style red necks from Tupsley, Madley and Canon Pyon shopping for scrumpy in Hightown on a Saturday.

I can still hear the dualling banjos.

NickPalmer

Andy_JS said:

Grimsby, Park ward:

"Park Ward Labour Party Branch
@LabourPark
Tory 715
Lab 578
Lib Dem 478
TUSC 70"

https://twitter.com/LabourPark/status/1494459026767335426

Previous results (courtesy of Britain Elects) below ("one of the weakest Labour wards in Grimsby"). Not much sign of a progressive alliance there, but the Tory vote more than halved despite two right-wing fringe candidates not standing.

May 2021 result C 1444 Lab 676 LD 450 TUSC 68 UKIP 57 Freedom Alliance 39
May 2019 result C 1034 LD 781 Lab 491 UKIP 482
May 2018 result C 1012 Lab 814 LD 788 UKIP 146
May 2016 result LD 905 Lab 617 UKIP 586 C 541 Grn 124 TUSC 39
May 2015 result LD 1745 Lab 1223 C 1144 UKIP 980 Grn 272 TUSC 63
May 2014 result LD 867 UKIP 796 C 614 Lab 577 Grn 165 TUSC 42
May 2012 result Lab 808 LD 696 C 655 UKIP 453 Grn 158
May 2011 result LD 1463 C 1165 Lab 855
May 2010 result LD 1832 C 1794 Lab 1413 UKIP 491
May 2008 result LD 1261 C 1145 Lab 342 EDP 280
May 2007 result LD 1471 C 677 Lab 356 Grn 286 BNP 285
May 2006 result LD 1335 BNP 577 Lab 488 Grn 401
June 2004 result LD 2430 Lab 791
May 2003 result LD 2134/1666/1617 C 1030/890 Lab 567
Previous results in detail

Andy_JS

Leon said:

The Ukraine thing is fucking scary. To be frank

There are multiple ways it could spiral out of Putin's control into global conflict

It's scary that Peter Hitchens might be wrong about anything to do with Russia for the first time ever. He says Putin would be utterly mad to launch an attack.

NickPalmer

vino said:

Andy_JS said:

"Bristol UA, Southmead

Labour - 780
Green - 728
Con - 279
Lib Dem - 82

Labour HOLD"

https://twitter.com/ALDC/status/1494458158504419329

pact voting by the tories?

Yes, looks like Tory tactical votes for Greens, with LDs only making a token appearance here. The council is evenly dividid Lab/Green ('tis Bristol!)..

Previous ones

May 2021 result Lab 1147/1060 C 748/622 Grn 499/370 LD 266/188
May 2016 result Lab 1461/1330 UKIP 482/371 C 477/385 LD 309/275 Grn 269

NickPalmer

vino said:

OADBY AND WIGSTON Wigston Meadowcourt

Liz Darling (Conservative) 833
Michael Phipps (Liberal Democrats) 377
Joshua Pearman (Green) 133

Seriously good Tory result, wonder why? Again the progressive alliance notable by its absence, though Labour didn't stand at all.

May 2019 result LD 891/857/847 C 587/531/460 Lab 246
May 2015 result LD 1450/1214/869 C 1357 Ind 1156 Lab 480
May 2011 result LD 1023/918/888 C 954/888/762
May 2007 result C 935/921/825 LD 767/750/703
November 2003 by-election C 806 LD 754
May 2003 result C 764/733/548 LD 552/538/467

rcs1000

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university

So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University

The point is that there hasn't been a graduate of a University other that Oxford who won a UK General Election since Baldwin nearly a century ago.

NickPalmer

vino said:

dixiedean said:

Labour win in Allerdale. Was an Indy. But this was a straight Labour Tory fight. No Indy or Green. So. A bit difficult to draw any conclusions. A wins a win, mind.

Difficult as you say but it looks to be more happier from a tory viewpoint

May 2019 result Ind 439/363 Lab 310/257 C 180/137 Grn 121. BritainElect describes past shenanigans - there - sounds a bit of a special case. https://www.britainelects.com/2022/02/17/previewing-the-council-by-elections-of-17-feb-2022/

rcs1000

HYUFD said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

HYUFD said:

Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

Brown never won an election and Major did not go to university

So what, they were still both PMs who did not go to Oxford University

No grauduate if a University other than Oxfords has led his party to a General Election victory since 1935

Though Brown, a graduate of Edinburgh, was not outright defeated by Oxford educated Cameron in 2010 and Oxford educated May failed to outright defeat non Oxford educated Corbyn in 2017. Note too non Oxford educated Churchill beat Oxford graduate Attlee in 1951.

However a lot of general elections have been Oxford graduate v Oxford graduate eg 1955, 1959, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1974, 1983, 2001 and 2015 or Oxford v Cambridge ie 2005, so Oxford or at least Oxbridge, could not lose those general elections anyway.

Oxford does seem to let people down. It’s graduates to tend to go on about it a tad. Life somehow seems to stop there.

Unless you also become a self made multi-millionaire or a billionaire (or indeed PM) going to Oxford is probably the highlight of your life if you get in

I had a fantastic three years at Cambridge, and I've even been back for (one of) the reunions. And I still have some great friends from my time there.

But it was not the highlight of my life.

rcs1000

Andy_JS said:

Foxy said:

Andy_JS said:

Spectacular Tory gain from the LDs in Oadby and Wigston on a swing of 26%. This was expected to be an easy LD hold.

Not according to the Britain elects summary:

"Wigston Meadowcourt is one of the stronger Conservative wards in the district and was the only ward in either Oadby or Wigston to return a full slate of Tory councillors in 2007. However, the last Conservative seat in the ward disappeared in 2019, when the Lib Dems won here by a 52-34 margin. Robert Eaton, who passed away between Christmas and New Year, had served as a councillor here since 2011.

The Lib Dems do have work to do to hold this one. Almost all of this ward is covered by the East Wigston division of Leicestershire county council, which the Tories came just 98 votes short of winning last year."

https://www.britainelects.com/2022/02/17/previewing-the-council-by-elections-of-17-feb-2022/

The Tories haven't topped the poll in this ward for 15 years. The figures are on this page.

https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/15955/local-council-elections-17th-february

It's a seriously impressive result - not just for the win, but also for the size of it.

With that said, it's also entirely possible there are local factors of which we do not know.

Andy_JS

"'He's going to do it': Whitehall is certain Putin will invade Ukraine and conflict will be 'horrendous' - after MoD reveals Moscow's 'battle plan' and US warns of 'moment of peril' - but Russia insists their troops are retreating"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10525105/How-Putin-Ukraine-MoD-reveal-Russias-battle-plan.html

Jim_Miller

I think that Putin's war -- if it occurs -- will be bad for Russia, as well as Ukraine, and eastern Europe, generally. After the damage done by Communism, Russia needs decades of peace to heal, not more conflict, against a reluctant coalition, which has many times the resources that Russia does.

An example of Putin's incompetence: When last I looked at excess deaths, Russia has about the same number of deaths from COVID as the United States (getting close to 1.2 million), with about 44 percent of the US population. And that is in spite of Russia having an effective vaccine, early.

The US response to COVID is nothing to be proud of, though some states, Vermont, for instance, have done well, but Trump/Biden have done far better than Putin.

CatMan

Red Warning for wind extended to London & South East England:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-02-18&id=e772aed2-9ec5-490c-9b78-882b72b09304

felix

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:

Foxy said:

Andy_JS said:

Spectacular Tory gain from the LDs in Oadby and Wigston on a swing of 26%. This was expected to be an easy LD hold.

Not according to the Britain elects summary:

"Wigston Meadowcourt is one of the stronger Conservative wards in the district and was the only ward in either Oadby or Wigston to return a full slate of Tory councillors in 2007. However, the last Conservative seat in the ward disappeared in 2019, when the Lib Dems won here by a 52-34 margin. Robert Eaton, who passed away between Christmas and New Year, had served as a councillor here since 2011.

The Lib Dems do have work to do to hold this one. Almost all of this ward is covered by the East Wigston division of Leicestershire county council, which the Tories came just 98 votes short of winning last year."

https://www.britainelects.com/2022/02/17/previewing-the-council-by-elections-of-17-feb-2022/

The Tories haven't topped the poll in this ward for 15 years. The figures are on this page.

https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/15955/local-council-elections-17th-february

It's a seriously impressive result - not just for the win, but also for the size of it.

With that said, it's also entirely possible there are local factors of which we do not know.

With each passing week every Conservative success in swing or gain is always somehow a 'special circumstances' result.

CarlottaVance

BREAKING NEWS The Met Office has issued a very rare RED weather warning - meaning a danger to life - for the whole of #Sussex as #StormEunice passes over.

Between 10am and 3pm gale force winds are expected with gusts of up to 80mph.

Read more here:
https://metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-02-18&id=e772aed2-9ec5-490c-9b78-882b72b09304

https://twitter.com/BBCSussex/status/1494541349172961307

Sandpit

Morning all,

Good luck to those in the path of Storm Eustice today, sounds like it’s going to be a bad one. Batten down the hatches and stay indoors.

Looks like Putin is thinking about what to do with Ukraine, he’s marched his men to the top of the hill, and doesn’t want to lose face by marching them down again - but he knows that going in to Ukraine will meet with a strong military response, and the clock is ticking on the weather as the steppe starts to thaw.

Sandpit

Heathrow wind 210º 16kt. Looks like they’ve opened early for business, one Singapore A380 just landed, a BA A350 from Brazil right behind it, and another A350 from Dubai right behind that.

I get the feeeling that, by mid morning, there are going to be long-haul planes scattered all over the place.

CarlottaVance

Sandpit said:

Heathrow wind 210º 16kt. Looks like they’ve opened early for business, one Singapore A380 just landed, a BA A350 from Brazil right behind it, and another A350 from Dubai right behind that.

I get the feeeling that, by mid morning, there are going to be long-haul planes scattered all over the place.

There will be a lot of North American flights showing up early because of the tailwind - a lot of NY flights are crossing in 5 1/2 hours….

IanB2

CarlottaVance said:

BREAKING NEWS The Met Office has issued a very rare RED weather warning - meaning a danger to life - for the whole of #Sussex as #StormEunice passes over.

Between 10am and 3pm gale force winds are expected with gusts of up to 80mph.

Read more here:
https://metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-02-18&id=e772aed2-9ec5-490c-9b78-882b72b09304

https://twitter.com/BBCSussex/status/1494541349172961307

The BBC is still predicting Hurricane Sandy for Freshwater mid-morning, with predicted wind peaking at 115 mph

Sandpit

CarlottaVance said:

Sandpit said:

Heathrow wind 210º 16kt. Looks like they’ve opened early for business, one Singapore A380 just landed, a BA A350 from Brazil right behind it, and another A350 from Dubai right behind that.

I get the feeeling that, by mid morning, there are going to be long-haul planes scattered all over the place.

There will be a lot of North American flights showing up early because of the tailwind - a lot of NY flights are crossing in 5 1/2 hours….

Indeed. I know they build some slack into modern schedules, but the BA Santiago arrival landing now made the journey in 100 minutes less than advertised! The Dallas arrival behind that has made up 75 minutes on the schedule.

MarqueeMark

For visual representation of swell, winds, pressure, surf (!):

https://magicseaweed.com/North-Atlantic-Surf-Chart/2/?type=wind&timestamp=1645174800

ydoethur

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

Note too we had a non Oxford graduate as PM just 12 years ago, Gordon Brown and just 13 years before that too, John Major.

Starmer might have an Oxford postgraduate degree but he did his undergraduate degree at Leeds

Indeed. Starmer did his undergrad years at easily the finest HE institution in the UK.

I never knew he was at Aber!