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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After the rumours that a YES lead poll is about to be published Ladbrokes open market on the next Panelbase findings
This might be a good way to flush out the data. If the odds change sharply or Ladbrokes suspend market then we’ll know something’s happening.
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Edit - fixed now
This also is an interesting comment on what Mr Pork late of this parish has called Eggpocalypse.
http://www.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2014/sep/04/scottish-independence-newspapers
Nothing new re egg court case yet it seems.
Looks like the Sunday Times have dropped panelbase as their pollster on the Indyref, this close to the referendum
This could have solved several problems in one go.
The sacrifices I make for PBers.
Re EU Commissioners, Lord Hill was a decidedly strange choice. I'd never heard of him.
Now it appears the appointee is getting a second rank post.
Surprise, surprise.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jameskirkup/100285195/douglas-carswell-may-have-just-saved-the-union/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
People are so wrong misinterpreting this as an insult for Dave, It is a great honour for Dave, remember, Dave's Green agenda (vote Blue, Go Green), Juncker knows this, and that's why he's given the UK this portfolio, a subject matter that is close to Dave's heart.
Yet another piece of Westminster bubble journalist pseudo clever bullsh*t. Not quite high handed and remote enough to get the Matthew D'Ancona award, though.
Ruth Davidson was very good. She spoke of the work she had seen as a BBC reporter in Kosovo by the Black Watch, the work done in Sierra Leone and the work by the navy after the hurricane in the Philippines. She pointed out very few militaries in the world had that sort of capability. She found the idea that we Scots were going to walk away from all of that bizarre and maintained that is not who we are.
It was of course preaching to the converted but it was good to be amongst a room full of people who love their country as much as I do. In response to a question from me Ruth Davidson admitted that she had been arguing economics and technicalities for 2 years now and none of these were the reason she was going to vote no. That is the message that BT need to get out in these last 2 weeks even if it does not come naturally to too many in the Labour party.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/02/scots-independence-england-scotland
Tomorrow’s Record is being guest edited by Alex Salmond (today’s is edited by Alistair Darling), which would explain why the polling is being held off until then. This polling, we hear, is being carried out by Panelbase, who have consistently shown the most positive results for independence, and is being carried out on behalf of the Yes campaign.
http://labourlist.org/2014/09/scottish-referendum-the-liveblog/
In any case, the result is the same: we have no influence in the EU and many posts have gone to people utterly opposed to us free trade Atlanticists.
Curious way of putting it.
Did any of them remind the Whips about Dave's awesome Defence Cuts?
Meanwhile the ECB cuts rates again in a desperate attempt to shore up Europe's tanking economy.
Special measures on the way.
Of course as you people only speak behind closed doors to your own supporters the lies would go down well.
She is voting NO on London orders to try and keep her job.
Quote ,
Mr Robertson said that a post-independence Scotland would retain an "appropriate" armed force for the country's size, consisting of 15,000 regular and 5000 reserve personnel.
PS: Lying for 2 years and getting nowhere so hard to believe 2 weeks will cut it
'EXODUS'
150 tory workers cross the line to UKIP. Cast iron tories in a copper bottomed tory seat.
Lots of metal analogies there, for some reason...
Backbenchers were keen to squeeze out more details on the European reform plan before Carswell defected, and now they think it essential. They see it as their duty to re-educate the PM. As one says: ‘The Prime Minister has to be dragged kicking and screaming each time to a more Eurosceptic position, and then when he’s there, he finds that it’s popular.’
http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9304752/revolt-on-the-right/
A free trade deal with the EU post exit would be enough for industry to get on with, I don't see the EU putting up a trade barrier with the single largest consumer bloc in Europe.
1. Declaring Labour has the general election in the bag with 8 months to go looks arrogant and complacent! Of course it may be true, but no party leader should ever say this until all the ballots have been cast.
Did Tony Blair ever declare the 97 election was won, even with those 20-30% Labour poll leads he enjoyed?
2. Ed looks like a fish out of water in Scotland. He looks about as authentic as Cameron or Clegg or Farage would do north of the border. Given his and Labour's humiliation in 2011 maybe Ed should be keeping his head down like Cameron and Clegg?
"This Scottish Government envisages a phased approach to reaching the level of Scottish defence forces set out above. This will be achieved through a staged process involving 7,500 regular and 2,000 reserve personnel at the point of independence, rising to around 10,000 regulars and 3,500 reserves by the end of the five years following independence, subject to consideration in the strategic defence review. The final force levels will provide capacity for Scotland to make enhanced contributions to international partnership operations."
That is 7,500 for the army, navy and airforce put together with any increase subject to a defence review.
If you were incredibly successful in reducing your support and logistic staff you might just manage 3,500 troops. Doubt it, it would be one of the best ratios in the world for troops to support staff but if include all the army support staff you might get close.
And its not like they would be going anywhere.
I cant quite believe I'm reading posts that are seeming to imply that not engaging in wars overseas is a downside to independence.
How can every ethnic group have a lower figure than that?
Table 9: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/306889/occ94.pdf
Ruth Davidson has read in print the numbers and is blatantly lying and David thinks that is good and wonders why they are getting cuffed.
I repeat Tories are lying dogs , if their lips move they are lying.
How many opt outs has Ireland managed to negotiate for itself?
Of course we can hide away behind rUK and whistle a happy tune. Presumably GCHQ might tell us if some atrocity was planned. Presumably MI5 will keep an eye out if only to stop us becoming a threat to the security of rUK. It is just a cop out, parochial and frankly pathetic.
The situation is completely different. The nutters now have the lessons of history behind them. CF the ECB today.
If Europe continues to be in such a mess, I can see pressure on any UK government to hold an in/out referendum before the end of 2017, even if they don't currently plan to hold one.
malcolmg's Turnip stooge, bankrolled by the Tory party?
I agree with much of that, but I still don't get the "balance is still in favour" bit. I do get that greater access to European markets is better than less, but there's not a huge difference between the Korea FTA and EU membership. Given that we're much more important to the EU market than Korea is, being their biggest export partner, we could get a better deal, so the difference between a UK-EU FTA and outright membership really would be small.
So in favour we have:
- Slightly better service access to the economically stagnant EU
In opposition we have:
- Free trade with NAFTA (either a deal or outright membership)
- Free trade with Australia/New Zealand (both are keen to sign as many as possible)
- Potential deals with Japan, Brazil, India, China, Mexico, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore (let's say several hit snags, and we get three signed in the next couple of years)
- A unilateral reduction in tariffs of foodstuffs, reducing every Briton's food bill by a couple hundred quid
- No membership fees
- A large reduction in regulation on our domestic economy, and on non-EU exports
I don't see how people have this in balance as being in favour of the EU. I think it's just a combination of status quo bias, and people feel being pro-EU is the "respectable" position, so don't want to follow where logic leads them.
A world of ZIRP is a world of moral hazard on a grand scale. Nations, governments, individuals, companies - they get used to the idea of zero interest rate policy being a good thing and being a permanent thing. It's not. And it creates horrible capital allocation. When interest rates need to rise many are going to get eliminated. When you're in a huge bubble blowing harder is not a good thing.
And by the way - this rate cut makes the ECB's Deposit Facility Rate now -0.2%, which is lower than zero. EU bank customers have to pay the ECB to deposit their cash!
But Salmond was forced to make a statement to the Scottish parliament late on Tuesday after opposition leaders accused him of "lying" and "covering-up" following an admission from his deputy, Nicola Sturgeon, that no specific legal advice had been given by Scottish law officers on EU membership.
His critics highlighted an interview by Salmond with Andrew Neil on BBC1's Sunday Politics earlier this year in which the first minister said he had been given clear legal advice by Scottish law officers. Asked by Neil whether he had sought advice from the Scottish government's own law officers on membership of the EU, Salmond replied: "We have, yes, in terms of the debate."
Asked what that advice said, Salmond responded: "Well, you know I can't give you the legal advice or reveal the legal advice of law officers, but what you can say is that everything we publish is consistent with the legal advice we have received."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2012/oct/23/alex-salmond-eu-legal-advice-scotland
IIRC, both pollsters took steps to stop the Nat infestation of their panels.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/new-recruits-banned-by-panelbase-from-indyref-polls.1378556935
It really is the worst of all choices. Outright QE has some moral hazard in a multi member monetary union, yes, but it is surely less than the ECB directly purchasing ABSs with the assets owned by private citizens and private corporations.
Regarding having a remote idea of how the majority of Scots feel, fancy doubling or trebling up on our Yes under 40% bet?
"
Land forces
An army HQ function and an all-arms brigade, with three infantry/marine units, equipped initially from a negotiated share of current UK assets, and supported by:
a deployable Brigade HQ
two light armoured reconnaissance units
two light artillery units
one engineer unit deploying a range of equipment for bridging, mine clearance and engineering functions
one aviation unit operating six helicopters for reconnaissance and liaison
two communication units
one transport unit
one logistics unit
one medical unit
Special forces, explosives and ordnance disposal teams will bring the total to around 3,500 regular and at least 1,200 reserve personnel."
So no lie. Except from Robertson of course.
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers 24s
Fabricant: Commons staff tell me "Speaker is a c***. I don’t use language like that, but he can be a bit of a nob" http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/09/michael-fabricant-sharpens-his-attack-on-john-bercow/ …
EDIT: Average wages were lower in 2011, of course. However, I still can't make the numbers work, unless Afro-Caribbean Women made up about 60% of the female workforce. Which is probably not true.
PM says referendum has nothing to do with his future but is a clear choice for Scots between staying part of UK or leaving it
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/04/david-cameron-i-will-not-resign-scotland-referendum-votes-independence?CMP=twt_gu
If so, most of them will probably have died before they find UKIP
;-)
I'd hate to see you locked up.
Ah well, there's another few thousand unemployed. An Independent Scotland will be competing with Ireland as to which has the greatest number of young emigrants.
So I guess we're left with withdrawal.
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/2016-presidential-update-for-republicans-a-vacancy-at-the-top/
This assumption was further bolstered by the evidence of actual election results before the campaign got going: SNP going backwards in various by-elections with doorstep evidence that few ordinary people were interested in independence. Even once the campaign started, the startling results from the various school and university referendums - ie, consistently large margins in favor of "No" - seemed to demonstrate that the zeitgeist was against independence. If the young voters aren't going for it why on earth would the older and wiser demographic go for it?
So, a strong sense that this could not possibly go wrong. But it looks as if it might.
My feeling is that by going consistently negative on the pound etc. has now rather wearied the voting public and they have reacted with a sort of couthy "sod you". We'll go for it anyway. And, of course, the obvious passion and elan of the Yes campaign is pretty impressive. Their visual presence hugely outnumbers the BT one (reinforced, of course, by the fact that the BT field posters in my part of the North East only lasted a few hours before they were torn down).
My advice to Better Together. You have to show passion. If campaigners don't appear to care much, why vote for them? Two weeks and counting......
http://www.ukip.org/mike_hookem_raises_concerns_over_uk_troop_deployments_to_ukraine
In purely narrow partisan terms, the Right in rUK could expect to benefit from a Yes vote. But, for me, it would be a very hollow victory indeed if this country tore itself apart.
THE outspoken Live Aid hero believes passionately that separation is wrong and says Scots should be true to their history by staying in the UK.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/better-together-takeover-bob-geldof-4161186