Another day and now the betting edges back to a 2022 PM exit – politicalbetting.com

The supposed link to Meeks links to the Betdata chart shown.

So anything less than 85% for the Tory tomorrow, is ipso facto a shortfall/setback for Boris Johnson?

Or moral defeat if you prefer . . . as I do.

FrankBooth said:

The big problem with Trump was he didn't endorse the election result. Not sure how Johnson could argue about a VONC.

Ignore it.

They floated the idea yesterday

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

So anything less than 85% for the Tory tomorrow, is ipso facto a shortfall/setback for Boris Johnson?

Or moral defeat if you prefer . . . as I do.

I had another search for information on one of the candidates in the election tomorrow, that I wasn't able to find previously, and I found this, which reads:

"Message from Olga Childs - 21 January 2022:

As many have noticed, I have not campaigned in the Southend West by-election, despite having made plans to do so. I thank, and apologise to, those who helped me put forward my nomination, and were prepared to help me canvass and run events. Unfortunately, due to unexpected concerns related to my health, I will not be able to share my message in this campaign. Although it is too late to remove my name from the ballot, I ask that you treat it as if it were never there."

I wonder how many votes they will receive, regardless. Having an entirely blank canvas to vote for could be appealing.

TheScreamingEagles said:

The only question is now will he lose with the dignity of Donald Trump?

Depends how desperate he is for cash / a redemption arc afterwards.

Will he follow Nads into the Jungle?

TheScreamingEagles said:

The only question is now will he lose with the dignity of Donald Trump?

Seriously, isn't it (sadly) most likely that Johnson faces a VoNC but narrowly wins it, and stumbles on for another year?

Stuartinromford said:

Will he follow Nads into the Jungle?

Nadine Dorries, who ate ostrich arsehole, live for clicks, is accusing MPs fed up with Johnson of being attention seeking.
https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1488943557394247683

For non-UK followers, who may be puzzled and trying to decode what they just read, this is not some euphemism, metaphorical flourish or quaint English phrase.

She actually ate ostrich arsehole, live on TV. https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1488944625184247811

Benpointer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The only question is now will he lose with the dignity of Donald Trump?

Seriously, isn't it (sadly) most likely that Johnson faces a VoNC but narrowly wins it, and stumbles on for another year?

This is also my feeling.

A generous number of Tories are disgusted with the Boris, but the majority just want to cling on to nursey for fear of something Trussey.

Scott_xP said:

MAIL: Energy bills to soar by £650 - now the heat is on ⁦@RishiSunak⁩ #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1488999980836827137/photo/1

Interesting report on the radio about huge gas price rises... in Germany. I think a lot of countries are seeing the same energy cost issues.

IanB2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The only question is now will he lose with the dignity of Donald Trump?

”There wasn’t any such ballot…”

“There was such a ballot but I won it….”

“There was such a ballot but you will have to wait for Sue Gray to investigate who actually won it….”

"Nobody told me it was a ballot..."

Benpointer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The only question is now will he lose with the dignity of Donald Trump?

Seriously, isn't it (sadly) most likely that Johnson faces a VoNC but narrowly wins it, and stumbles on for another year?

His buddy JRM used to claim to believe that not winning a VONC by enough meant you were required to quit. While he would no doubt reverse on that, calamity has a way of piling on top of calamity, which might render him unsafe notwithstanding the current rules about a further challenge. Corbyn was safe after the challenge against him failed, even when people were literally fleeing the party none dared take him on again, but as we saw with May if things get even worse, not better, after a challenge, even the stubborn may run out road.

IshmaelZ said:

My VONC by end feb bet of 90 minutes ago is in the money already.

Get those fcking letters in.

Time to take the spiritual approach...

Letters pray.

Southend West. I said 65/30 was the lowest possible I see for a Con win, but I'm going:

Con 71 / UKIP 21 / Others 8

Gardenwalker said:

I think this is how she should be introduced on TV.

“And with us in the studio is Nadine Dorries, Culture Secretary and ostrich arsehole eater.”

The same with BoZo

"And with us now, the Prime Minister, sacked twice for telling lies, is it about to be 3 times? Welcome."

Gardenwalker said:

Benpointer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The only question is now will he lose with the dignity of Donald Trump?

Seriously, isn't it (sadly) most likely that Johnson faces a VoNC but narrowly wins it, and stumbles on for another year?

This is also my feeling.

A generous number of Tories are disgusted with the Boris, but the majority just want to cling on nursey for fear of something Trussey.

Yeah, any other approach would be a bit Rishi.

BREAKING: New Zealand says international border will gradually reopen from February 27, with a full reopening by October

Only have to wait until October to visit.....what's the betting they open a bit, get a spike and they reverse /delay this decision.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Benpointer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The only question is now will he lose with the dignity of Donald Trump?

Seriously, isn't it (sadly) most likely that Johnson faces a VoNC but narrowly wins it, and stumbles on for another year?

Was Theresa May safe for a year after her VOC?

Also, if he wins and is subsequently charged by the rozzers or fined then he's out in that 12 month window.

(I honestly think he won't survived being questioned under caution.)

May resigned, Boris won't

FrancisUrquhart said:

BREAKING: New Zealand says international border will gradually reopen from February 27, with a full reopening by October

Only have to wait until October to visit.....

Which October?

Pro_Rata said:

Southend West. I said 65/30 was the lowest possible I see for a Con win, but I'm going:

Con 71 / UKIP 21 / Others 8

Bold. The highest anyone but Labour got in the Batley and Spen 2016 election was 4.8%. My gut, based on nothing, says if anyone but the Tories get over 10%, that's a pretty crappy result for the Blues.

Stuartinromford said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Stuartinromford said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The only question is now will he lose with the dignity of Donald Trump?

Depends how desperate he is for cash / a redemption arc afterwards.

Will he follow Nads into the Jungle?

I mentioned on here last week that somebody who knows the PM quite well will see any ousting as his Dardanelles moment.

He'll be kicked out but the country will want him back in a few years.

The way he is playing the Ukraine crisis he might see it as his moment on the backbenches fighting appeasement moment.

Yet another reason for any Conservative politician with any ambition to wait until 2024 before taking over.

Imagine trying to take over with that much brused ego on the backbenches.

(This isn't to say that someone, anyone, shouldn't try, for the sake of party and country. But it has "hospital pass" written all over it.)

The reality is that I don't think he can afford to be a backbench MP for long.

Sunak will unveil package of measures in Commons tomorrow morning before Downing Street presser in evening:

* Council tax rebates worth hundreds of pounds for poorest households

* Energy bill rebates for all that will be clawed back in subsequent years

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/598daade-8468-11ec-b939-57ea9f594ba1?shareToken=2baf5d83f361fba8f41fbd85755ee96c

Scott_xP said:

Times splash:

Millions to get council tax rebate to help limit impact of rising energy bills on poorer households

Sunak to announce rebates for households in bands A to C, funded by Govt grants

Households in Band A will get biggest rebates

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/598daade-8468-11ec-b939-57ea9f594ba1?shareToken=2baf5d83f361fba8f41fbd85755ee96c

Well that's progressive, to a point. But how does it help those on UC who already get council tax support?

(I can't read the paywalled report)

Northern_Al said:

Scott_xP said:

Times splash:

Millions to get council tax rebate to help limit impact of rising energy bills on poorer households

Sunak to announce rebates for households in bands A to C, funded by Govt grants

Households in Band A will get biggest rebates

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/598daade-8468-11ec-b939-57ea9f594ba1?shareToken=2baf5d83f361fba8f41fbd85755ee96c

But if that's right, where's the money to pay for it? Another NI rise? Income tax? Councils' depleted coffers?

The OBR has given Sunak some headroom on predictions of growth/tax take etc.

He would prefer to war chest for tax cut pre-GE 2024 when he is leader, but a few £ now will have to be spent.

Sunak will acknowledge people will still face big hikes in energy bills

Tomorrow’s choreography:

11am Ofgem announces bills to rise by 50% to £2000

1100 Sunak announces Govt interventions in Commons

1200 BoE interest rate announcement + inflation forecast

1700 Sunak presser

Scott_xP said:

UK faces low-growth, high-tax future, warns CBI boss https://on.ft.com/3uq7sKD

Keith was right...

What's Keith's plan? Windfall taxes on business and more regulation, and?

Scott_xP said:

Sunak will acknowledge people will still face big hikes in energy bills

Tomorrow’s choreography:

11am Ofgem announces bills to rise by 50% to £2000

1100 Sunak announces Govt interventions in Commons

1200 BoE interest rate announcement + inflation forecast

1700 Sunak presser

Hurrah for interest rates going up.

We savers have been persecuted for over a decade.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_xP said:

UK faces low-growth, high-tax future, warns CBI boss https://on.ft.com/3uq7sKD

Keith was right...

What's Keith's plan? Windfall taxes on business and more regulation, and?

Currently to not be Johnson. It’s working...

Anabobazina said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BREAKING: New Zealand says international border will gradually reopen from February 27, with a full reopening by October

Only have to wait until October to visit.....what's the betting they open a bit, get a spike and they reverse /delay this decision.

Does that mean people in NZ can leave this month but can’t go back until October?

I take all of @Gardenwalker ’s points about Jacinda OPT but this is getting beyond ridiculous now. I haven’t seen my mate for three years. He is imprisoned on the North Island!

I am guessing the opposite, that gradual reopen for NZ citizens first then wider world.

turbotubbs said:

Currently to not be Johnson. It’s working...

A lawyer, not a liar...

Farooq said:

stodge said:

Late evening all

The more I hear the new intake of Conservative MPs, the more impressed I am.

They sound genuinely non-ideological and primarily interested in helping their area and their constituents. It's a pity they owe their position to Johnsonian populism but I suspect many now realise he needs them far more than they need him.

Why haven't they got their letters in to the 1922?
Very difficult to feel anything other than massively depressed at the state of the Conservative party right now.

There could be other feelings - rage for instance.

rottenborough said:

Newsnight says the engine cap announcement by the regulator which is now tomorrow and will be the big news has been brought forward by a week at request by Downing Street.

Can't think why.

But Rishi gets the headlines, not the Big Dick

Farooq said:

stodge said:

Late evening all

The more I hear the new intake of Conservative MPs, the more impressed I am.

They sound genuinely non-ideological and primarily interested in helping their area and their constituents. It's a pity they owe their position to Johnsonian populism but I suspect many now realise he needs them far more than they need him.

Why haven't they got their letters in to the 1922?
Very difficult to feel anything other than massively depressed at the state of the Conservative party right now.

No, plenty to be happy about.

They will get a pasting in May, a shellacking at the 2023 locals and at the 2024 GE the Party will be pounded like a dockside hooker who has asked @TSE for a pizza with pineapple on it while listening to Radiohead during a Liverpool match.

Probably too many in-jokes there.

turbotubbs said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_xP said:

UK faces low-growth, high-tax future, warns CBI boss https://on.ft.com/3uq7sKD

Keith was right...

What's Keith's plan? Windfall taxes on business and more regulation, and?

Currently to not be Johnson. It’s working...

Indeed. And Labour have until 2024.

The last thing they want is to be in power during a cost of living crisis compounded by rising taxes, increased interest rates, and collapsing exports.

Anabobazina said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BREAKING: New Zealand says international border will gradually reopen from February 27, with a full reopening by October

Only have to wait until October to visit.....what's the betting they open a bit, get a spike and they reverse /delay this decision.

Does that mean people in NZ can leave this month but can’t go back until October?

I take all of @Gardenwalker ’s points about Jacinda OPT but this is getting beyond ridiculous now. I haven’t seen my mate for three years. He is imprisoned on the North Island!

In fact, most UK residents will be able to get to NZ in July - for a nice winter visit.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300509477/covid19-nz-border-reopening-to-begin-from-late-february-to-proceed-in-five-stages

TheScreamingEagles said:

Stuartinromford said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The only question is now will he lose with the dignity of Donald Trump?

Depends how desperate he is for cash / a redemption arc afterwards.

Will he follow Nads into the Jungle?

I mentioned on here last week that somebody who knows the PM quite well will see any ousting as his Dardanelles moment.

He'll be kicked out but the country will want him back in a few years.

The way he is playing the Ukraine crisis he might see it as his moment on the backbenches fighting appeasement moment.

After the Dardanelles, wasn't the next step sending tanks to Scotland to suppress the workers then gassing the kurds?. A short spell cutting the Navy then returning to the Gold Standard at a rate causing mass unemployment?

We have a few more disasters to come before Johnson is revealed to be the saviour of us all...

TheScreamingEagles said:

Benpointer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_xP said:

Sunak will acknowledge people will still face big hikes in energy bills

Tomorrow’s choreography:

11am Ofgem announces bills to rise by 50% to £2000

1100 Sunak announces Govt interventions in Commons

1200 BoE interest rate announcement + inflation forecast

1700 Sunak presser

Hurrah for interest rates going up.

We savers have been persecuted for over a decade.

You've left cash on deposit??

A little bit.

I was raised by a mother who viewed debt as the eighth deadliest sin, only acceptable debt was a mortgage.

I needed to save 25% of my salary and always have 2 years worth of salary as cash in hand.

Flippin'eck... 2 years of your salary? You must be funding half the nation's mortgages!

FrancisUrquhart said:

Anabobazina said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BREAKING: New Zealand says international border will gradually reopen from February 27, with a full reopening by October

Only have to wait until October to visit.....what's the betting they open a bit, get a spike and they reverse /delay this decision.

Does that mean people in NZ can leave this month but can’t go back until October?

I take all of @Gardenwalker ’s points about Jacinda OPT but this is getting beyond ridiculous now. I haven’t seen my mate for three years. He is imprisoned on the North Island!

I am guessing the opposite, that gradual reopen for NZ citizens first then wider world.

What does a ‘gradual reopen’ look like in practice? Can you leave, or not? Can you visit, or not? Do you have to spend ten days at Jacinda’s pleasure, or not?

@Gardenwalker FPT

NZ:

It surely cannot be true that a positive test gets 10 days in the cooler, but being a household contact of a positive test gets 24 days?

Eh?

Did I read that correctly?

Pro_Rata said:

Southend West. I said 65/30 was the lowest possible I see for a Con win, but I'm going:

Con 71 / UKIP 21 / Others 8

Is there a market on who comes second, or winner of the alsorans? I am not convinced it will be the kipper.

Anabobazina said:

@Gardenwalker FPT

NZ:

It surely cannot be true that a positive test gets 10 days in the cooler, but being a household contact of a positive test gets 24 days?

Eh?

Did I read that correctly?

Sight correction, but pretty much:

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-health-advice-public/advice-people-covid-19

The isolation period for COVID-19 cases in the community is at least 14 days, including 72 hours symptom-free.

Your household members will need to remain in isolation for at least 10 days after you have been released as a case. This means they will need to be in isolation for longer than you.

It’s batshit.

Anabobazina said:

Gardenwalker said:

Anabobazina said:

@Gardenwalker FPT

NZ:

It surely cannot be true that a positive test gets 10 days in the cooler, but being a household contact of a positive test gets 24 days?

Eh?

Did I read that correctly?

Sight correction, but pretty much:

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-health-advice-public/advice-people-covid-19

The isolation period for COVID-19 cases in the community is at least 14 days, including 72 hours symptom-free.

Your household members will need to remain in isolation for at least 10 days after you have been released as a case. This means they will need to be in isolation for longer than you.

It’s batshit.

So the person who has covid is isolated for around half the time of the person who does NOT have covid? Am I reading this correctly?

Yes!
It’s fucking mental.

Bear in mind too this is Omicron so a lot of cases will be mild. NZ is well vaxxed now.

Gardenwalker said:

Anabobazina said:

Gardenwalker said:

Anabobazina said:

@Gardenwalker FPT

NZ:

It surely cannot be true that a positive test gets 10 days in the cooler, but being a household contact of a positive test gets 24 days?

Eh?

Did I read that correctly?

Sight correction, but pretty much:

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-health-advice-public/advice-people-covid-19

The isolation period for COVID-19 cases in the community is at least 14 days, including 72 hours symptom-free.

Your household members will need to remain in isolation for at least 10 days after you have been released as a case. This means they will need to be in isolation for longer than you.

It’s batshit.

So the person who has covid is isolated for around half the time of the person who does NOT have covid? Am I reading this correctly?

Yes!
It’s fucking mental.

Oh.

That is indeed absolutely crackers.

Arguably the most batshit crazy covid policy I have encountered from any Western government!

FrancisUrquhart said:

stodge said:

Anabobazina said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BREAKING: New Zealand says international border will gradually reopen from February 27, with a full reopening by October

Only have to wait until October to visit.....what's the betting they open a bit, get a spike and they reverse /delay this decision.

Does that mean people in NZ can leave this month but can’t go back until October?

I take all of @Gardenwalker ’s points about Jacinda OPT but this is getting beyond ridiculous now. I haven’t seen my mate for three years. He is imprisoned on the North Island!

In fact, most UK residents will be able to get to NZ in July - for a nice winter visit.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300509477/covid19-nz-border-reopening-to-begin-from-late-february-to-proceed-in-five-stages

I won't be booking a trip for then, I can well see a spike in cases and then down come the shutters again.

Indeed. Although it’s not at its best in July anyway - middle of winter there.

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_xP said:

UK faces low-growth, high-tax future, warns CBI boss https://on.ft.com/3uq7sKD

Keith was right...

What's Keith's plan? Windfall taxes on business and more regulation, and?

Currently to not be Johnson. It’s working...

I have said this for years, there seems to be a huge lack of any real thinking in politics. Labour "big" policy so far is a rehash of the mid 90s i.e. whack a big windfall tax on an industry.

Because ultimately the policy that makes the most sense is a major rebalancing of taxation away from incomes and investment and towards static, dead assets (i.e. mainly houses.) Land value taxes coupled with very substantial death duties.

Labour has clearly concluded that there are too many asset rich/cash poor elderly, and too many expectant heirs waiting for Mum and Dad to kick the bucket and gift them a hugely valuable house, in the electorate for this to fly. So we stumble on, desperately scrambling around for ways to raise the gargantuan sums of money needed to care for a population that grows fatter, older and more knackered with every passing year, without whacking wages and company profits so bloody hard that the economy tanks.

This is a situation that lends itself to an attitude of delay, obfuscation, tinkering round the edges and allowing most of the country to rot away, gradually but inexorably, for lack of funds. Which is pretty much where we find ourselves.

Anabobazina said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

stodge said:

Anabobazina said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BREAKING: New Zealand says international border will gradually reopen from February 27, with a full reopening by October

Only have to wait until October to visit.....what's the betting they open a bit, get a spike and they reverse /delay this decision.

Does that mean people in NZ can leave this month but can’t go back until October?

I take all of @Gardenwalker ’s points about Jacinda OPT but this is getting beyond ridiculous now. I haven’t seen my mate for three years. He is imprisoned on the North Island!

In fact, most UK residents will be able to get to NZ in July - for a nice winter visit.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300509477/covid19-nz-border-reopening-to-begin-from-late-february-to-proceed-in-five-stages

I won't be booking a trip for then, I can well see a spike in cases and then down come the shutters again.

Indeed. Although it’s not at its best in July anyway - middle of winter there.

What has happened to the NZ economy this last 2 years? From what I recall, about 10% was based on international tourism?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Benpointer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_xP said:

Sunak will acknowledge people will still face big hikes in energy bills

Tomorrow’s choreography:

11am Ofgem announces bills to rise by 50% to £2000

1100 Sunak announces Govt interventions in Commons

1200 BoE interest rate announcement + inflation forecast

1700 Sunak presser

Hurrah for interest rates going up.

We savers have been persecuted for over a decade.

You've left cash on deposit??

A little bit.

I was raised by a mother who viewed debt as the eighth deadliest sin, only acceptable debt was a mortgage.

I needed to save 25% of my salary and always have 2 years worth of salary as cash in hand.

That must have made the first two years working difficult.