If Stormont has to be collapsed to complete the process of removing the Irish Sea border, so be it
Sometimes you can see no further than your nose. Can you not see the dangerous ramifications of this?
Why do you think Mrs May and Johnson tiptoed around the Irish Brexit position for so long?
But it can all go to hell in a handcart so long as Big Dog is saved, eh?
If Unionists continue to be treated with contempt by the EU, then the Good Friday Agreement is dead anyway.
It only worked with Unionist as well as Nationalist consent
Isn't it the Johnson government's treating Unionists with contempt that led to the current situation?
No, it was the EU who demanded the border in the Irish Sea for a trade deal to spite the UK government and Unionists.
The UK government never wanted a border in Ireland. A technical solution could have been found
What technical solution. Where is this technical solution? Who is working on it? What company? What technical department?
You’re a troll.
Its possible to believe that a technical solution is possible - after all I can find out the name of the pig that my sausages were made from fairly easily. Its also possible to believe that no-one is actually trying to achieve such an outcome - the UK government and the EU, both seem not to be trying to do anything to make the checks easier. I know the commission have brought some ideas through, and we are I assume considering them.
At the root of the matter the situation is completely fecked by history. The special status of NI, both in the EU single market and part of the UK is always going to make things very tricky indeed. I completely understand a trader in the EU wanting to make sure that UK traders don't cheat by going via NI, but I also abhor the idea of trade being restricted within our own country.
Not easy.
You see I don't abhor the idea that trade is restricted within our own country, what I abhor is the fact Bozo implement something that resulted in trade being restricted within our own country.
If Bozo hadn't been stupid enough to implement it then the issue wouldn't exist. Bozo decided that was the solution he wanted but as with a lot of things he didn't think through what mess his quick fix would inevitably create.
No argument from me on that, just that the overall situation is a gordian knot. Once you decide to leave the single market, somewhere is going to have to have checks. The GFA says it can't be between NI and ROI, so therefore it has to be from rUK to NI, which is unpalatable. So that means you can't both leave the single market AND have no border.
For all that you can argue we shouldn't have left the single market, we did, and need a solution to the mess. What that is, I have no idea, but I do honestly believe that if I can track a parcel from depot to my door, and find the name of the pig I am eating through labelling, its not beyond the whit of man to arrange for a virual border. Just don't ask me how to do it...
Oh it is beyond the whit of man when one side can (for the lols if nothing else) say we aren't willing to do that.
It takes 2 to tango and 1 side (the EU) has literally zero incentive to play ball because it's in their collective interests to not do so. That is one of the problems that Bozo and others didn't think through, we thought the game was a version of happy families when it was actually a game of Go, 4 dimensional chess, or no limits Texas Holdem.
SNP leadership still doubling down on assertion that you Brits will be paying for Scots' pensions after Indy.
Be interested if our resident PB SNPers are sold on this. Don't think they've commented so far?
Don't have a lot of time for Gorgeous George but enjoyed this tweet:
George Galloway @georgegalloway · 33m If #Scots think #England will pay their pension in the event of #independence then no greater testimony to the collapse of Scotland’s once famous education system could exist. Not to mention our once infamous reputation of a tight-grasp of monetary matters.
Oh no, not only are they looking to drop Modern Pentathlon from the Olympics, but even if it gets back in they are removing the most hilarious part of it, the showjumping! Seeing horses refuse to jump was great entertainment.
(Boxing and Weightlifting are also at risk because they are dodgy AF)
Incidentally, one of the big names in VR at the time was Virtuality, based in Leicester. I know someone who went there just before the company imploded...
Oh, wow. Yeah, I remember using their kit at a summer camp in the early 90s. Really bizarre experience.
Wind is great when it's windy but not much use when it isn't - and we don't currently have any sane way to store enough power to get us through 2 to 3 days of zero wind when that happens (and will we ever have enough storage).
Until we have a large surplus of wind that needs to be regularly stored we're never going to find out which potential storage technology scales economically to store the energy, because the energy doesn't need to be stored now.
So we need to get on and build the wind turbines and create the surplus so that the market can work out what storage technology works. We can't wait until we've designed all the bits in advance.
Bitcoin mining.
One possible use for stranded energy is to mine with it, converting the wasted energy that either can't be stored or isn't cost efficient to store, into a commodity that can either be used to subsidise the cost of building more green infrastructure, or used to purchase energy from elsewhere during peak times, thus reducing the cost.
With the ability to convert stranded energy into a commodity that can be traded, you eliminate the stranded energy problem.
Though Bitcoin mining doesn't just use surplus energy, indeed in Kosova it was precipitating an energy crisis.
Perhaps just the rights of Incels to have robo-sex...
Nearly thirty years ago, I went to a VR conference at the Novotel in Hammersmith. It was brilliant - with really expensive SGI machines running all sorts of VR stuff that can probably be done on most home computers. At least one company could not take their best kit, as they couldn't get insurance to transport it.
Anyway, a buzz phrase (although not appearing in the literature) around the hall was 'teledildonics'.
Incidentally, one of the big names in VR at the time was Virtuality, based in Leicester. I know someone who went there just before the company imploded...
Is there no limit to the range and depth of knowledge that one can acquire from PB?
Teledildonics plumbs new depths.
There was actually a method behind the madness: sex sells, and sex can be a good way to introduce new tech to markets. VR has been pounding the porn markets heavily, although I don't know how successful it's been in generating hardware sales.
The problem with teledildonics back then was that the rigs cost £10,000 or more (often much more). It simply was too expensive. Nowadays, even with cheaper rigs that we can carry around in our pockets, it is probably competing against PornHub, Tinder and other ways of getting your rocks off.
Wind is great when it's windy but not much use when it isn't - and we don't currently have any sane way to store enough power to get us through 2 to 3 days of zero wind when that happens (and will we ever have enough storage).
Until we have a large surplus of wind that needs to be regularly stored we're never going to find out which potential storage technology scales economically to store the energy, because the energy doesn't need to be stored now.
So we need to get on and build the wind turbines and create the surplus so that the market can work out what storage technology works. We can't wait until we've designed all the bits in advance.
Bitcoin mining.
One possible use for stranded energy is to mine with it, converting the wasted energy that either can't be stored or isn't cost efficient to store, into a commodity that can either be used to subsidise the cost of building more green infrastructure, or used to purchase energy from elsewhere during peak times, thus reducing the cost.
With the ability to convert stranded energy into a commodity that can be traded, you eliminate the stranded energy problem.
This doesn't currently work in practice because you have to spend too much on equipment to have it sitting there idle waiting for cheap power.
And I hope and believe it won't work in future because people will stop paying money for an asset that isn't used for anything except hoping it'll go up, and where it's mathematically guaranteed that the average investor will take out less than they put in.
Oh no, not only are they looking to drop Modern Pentathlon from the Olympics, but even if it gets back in they are removing the most hilarious part of it, the showjumping! Seeing horses refuse to jump was great entertainment.
(Boxing and Weightlifting are also at risk because they are dodgy AF)
Sounds fair enough. The horse selection lottery was really unfair, especially in hot conditions when perhaps half the horses couldnt cope. The equivalent in athletics might be do a decathlon, but then for the 1500m have a lottery where some runners have to do 1300m and others do 1700m!
Wind is great when it's windy but not much use when it isn't - and we don't currently have any sane way to store enough power to get us through 2 to 3 days of zero wind when that happens (and will we ever have enough storage).
Until we have a large surplus of wind that needs to be regularly stored we're never going to find out which potential storage technology scales economically to store the energy, because the energy doesn't need to be stored now.
So we need to get on and build the wind turbines and create the surplus so that the market can work out what storage technology works. We can't wait until we've designed all the bits in advance.
Bitcoin mining.
One possible use for stranded energy is to mine with it, converting the wasted energy that either can't be stored or isn't cost efficient to store, into a commodity that can either be used to subsidise the cost of building more green infrastructure, or used to purchase energy from elsewhere during peak times, thus reducing the cost.
With the ability to convert stranded energy into a commodity that can be traded, you eliminate the stranded energy problem.
A brilliant piece of satire if I might say so.
The satire is actually increased by the fact that business are actually doing this - buying cheap "surplus" leecy and using it for bitcoin mining.
If Stormont has to be collapsed to complete the process of removing the Irish Sea border, so be it
Sometimes you can see no further than your nose. Can you not see the dangerous ramifications of this?
Why do you think Mrs May and Johnson tiptoed around the Irish Brexit position for so long?
But it can all go to hell in a handcart so long as Big Dog is saved, eh?
If Unionists continue to be treated with contempt by the EU, then the Good Friday Agreement is dead anyway.
It only worked with Unionist as well as Nationalist consent
Isn't it the Johnson government's treating Unionists with contempt that led to the current situation?
No, it was the EU who demanded the border in the Irish Sea for a trade deal to spite the UK government and Unionists.
The UK government never wanted a border in Ireland. A technical solution could have been found
What technical solution. Where is this technical solution? Who is working on it? What company? What technical department?
You’re a troll.
Its possible to believe that a technical solution is possible - after all I can find out the name of the pig that my sausages were made from fairly easily. Its also possible to believe that no-one is actually trying to achieve such an outcome - the UK government and the EU, both seem not to be trying to do anything to make the checks easier. I know the commission have brought some ideas through, and we are I assume considering them.
At the root of the matter the situation is completely fecked by history. The special status of NI, both in the EU single market and part of the UK is always going to make things very tricky indeed. I completely understand a trader in the EU wanting to make sure that UK traders don't cheat by going via NI, but I also abhor the idea of trade being restricted within our own country.
Not easy.
You see I don't abhor the idea that trade is restricted within our own country, what I abhor is the fact Bozo implement something that resulted in trade being restricted within our own country.
If Bozo hadn't been stupid enough to implement it then the issue wouldn't exist. Bozo decided that was the solution he wanted but as with a lot of things he didn't think through what mess his quick fix would inevitably create.
No argument from me on that, just that the overall situation is a gordian knot. Once you decide to leave the single market, somewhere is going to have to have checks. The GFA says it can't be between NI and ROI, so therefore it has to be from rUK to NI, which is unpalatable. So that means you can't both leave the single market AND have no border.
For all that you can argue we shouldn't have left the single market, we did, and need a solution to the mess. What that is, I have no idea, but I do honestly believe that if I can track a parcel from depot to my door, and find the name of the pig I am eating through labelling, its not beyond the whit of man to arrange for a virual border. Just don't ask me how to do it...
Insofar as the GFA prohibits a border between NI and the Republic it would prohibit one between NI and Britain. As, I believe a certain B. Johnson once said, it was something no British Prime Minister could agree to (just as no Irish Taoiseach would agree to a border on the island of Ireland).
So the GFA has been abrogated, and Unionists have a right to feel aggrieved (though since they were hoping to impose a border on the island of Ireland instead to hold off Unification, my sympathy is attenuated).
I've no idea what will solve the issue, though, before Bart mentions it, I can recommend some excellent fudge, which might help future negotiations if not form the basis of a solution.
Wind is great when it's windy but not much use when it isn't - and we don't currently have any sane way to store enough power to get us through 2 to 3 days of zero wind when that happens (and will we ever have enough storage).
Until we have a large surplus of wind that needs to be regularly stored we're never going to find out which potential storage technology scales economically to store the energy, because the energy doesn't need to be stored now.
So we need to get on and build the wind turbines and create the surplus so that the market can work out what storage technology works. We can't wait until we've designed all the bits in advance.
The other market, of course, is the inter-country interconnects. Which already exists, and will get much larger.
Blocking highs usually cover most of western Europe.
The distances that can now be achieved by undersea cables are quite astonishing. Thousands of miles is perfectly practicable.
Finding a good lawyers seems as hard as finding an accountant who can add.
I recall spending an afternoon proof reading the conveyancing on a home purchase. Given it was all boiler plate, copy and pasta, the number of errors made was impressive. After finding the 3rd mistake, I binned the lawyer.
In all honesty, accountants CAN'T add up. I use my calculator. A good accountant is one who can present the accounts in the way the client wants, without going overboard.
If you want good results, then Debits belong in the balance sheet, Credits in the P&L [1]
[1] Did an audit once where the client had basically done this. Accounts were materially wrong. Client presented profit of £150k, had actually lost £350k.
Eek
I'd be sacked if I made that sort of error (I'm an internal accountant) - did he have enough reserves to ride it out ?
Effectively yes. It was deliberate by the client. The MD pressured the FD to present the 'right' result to the bank (basically, all senior management were in on it, and senior management were also the shareholders, presenting us as auditors in an impossible situation).
The audit was a shambles. To his credit, the audit partner flatly refused to completely roll over. We insisted on £200k of adjustments (to a £50k loss) and repped the rest. They did this basically every year. Towards the end the real balance sheet was a complete disaster but a friendly bank kept them going till an outside investor saw something we didn't and bought them out.
If Stormont has to be collapsed to complete the process of removing the Irish Sea border, so be it
Sometimes you can see no further than your nose. Can you not see the dangerous ramifications of this?
Why do you think Mrs May and Johnson tiptoed around the Irish Brexit position for so long?
But it can all go to hell in a handcart so long as Big Dog is saved, eh?
If Unionists continue to be treated with contempt by the EU, then the Good Friday Agreement is dead anyway.
It only worked with Unionist as well as Nationalist consent
Isn't it the Johnson government's treating Unionists with contempt that led to the current situation?
No, it was the EU who demanded the border in the Irish Sea for a trade deal to spite the UK government and Unionists.
The UK government never wanted a border in Ireland. A technical solution could have been found
What technical solution. Where is this technical solution? Who is working on it? What company? What technical department?
You’re a troll.
Its possible to believe that a technical solution is possible - after all I can find out the name of the pig that my sausages were made from fairly easily. Its also possible to believe that no-one is actually trying to achieve such an outcome - the UK government and the EU, both seem not to be trying to do anything to make the checks easier. I know the commission have brought some ideas through, and we are I assume considering them.
At the root of the matter the situation is completely fecked by history. The special status of NI, both in the EU single market and part of the UK is always going to make things very tricky indeed. I completely understand a trader in the EU wanting to make sure that UK traders don't cheat by going via NI, but I also abhor the idea of trade being restricted within our own country.
Not easy.
You see I don't abhor the idea that trade is restricted within our own country, what I abhor is the fact Bozo implement something that resulted in trade being restricted within our own country.
If Bozo hadn't been stupid enough to implement it then the issue wouldn't exist. Bozo decided that was the solution he wanted but as with a lot of things he didn't think through what mess his quick fix would inevitably create.
No argument from me on that, just that the overall situation is a gordian knot. Once you decide to leave the single market, somewhere is going to have to have checks. The GFA says it can't be between NI and ROI, so therefore it has to be from rUK to NI, which is unpalatable. So that means you can't both leave the single market AND have no border.
For all that you can argue we shouldn't have left the single market, we did, and need a solution to the mess. What that is, I have no idea, but I do honestly believe that if I can track a parcel from depot to my door, and find the name of the pig I am eating through labelling, its not beyond the whit of man to arrange for a virual border. Just don't ask me how to do it...
Insofar as the GFA prohibits a border between NI and the Republic it would prohibit one between NI and Britain. As, I believe a certain B. Johnson once said, it was something no British Prime Minister could agree to (just as no Irish Taoiseach would agree to a border on the island of Ireland).
So the GFA has been abrogated, and Unionists have a right to feel aggrieved (though since they were hoping to impose a border on the island of Ireland instead to hold off Unification, my sympathy is attenuated).
I've no idea what will solve the issue, though, before Bart mentions it, I can recommend some excellent fudge, which might help future negotiations if not form the basis of a solution.
Shall we try to calm things down and talk about womens' rights instead? 😁
What exactly is a woman.
Do you think colts/geldings should be allowed to identify as fillies/mares for racing purposes? Why not?
I do. Why not? It's a horse. Should there be Ladies & Gentlemen's racing under rules?
Because they would attract mares' allowances in handicap races, and enter fillies races, and put true mares out of contention
The meirt of the mare's allowance is debatable. Some think they don't really need it. That it might be sexist is a new angle but perhaps that encourages us to look at the whole question of gender differentiation in sport. Why have separate male and female events? Why not just have one single sex event for all sports?
No more 'Me Tarzan, you Jane.' Instead it would be 'Me Tarzan, you Tarzan.....Everybody Tarzan!'
Would save a lot of argument, and make the changing rooms a lot more fun.
[For the avoidance of doubt I should state that nothing amuses me more than sending up The Painfully Woke.]
Shall we try to calm things down and talk about womens' rights instead? 😁
What exactly is a woman.
Do you think colts/geldings should be allowed to identify as fillies/mares for racing purposes? Why not?
I do. Why not? It's a horse. Should there be Ladies & Gentlemen's racing under rules?
Because they would attract mares' allowances in handicap races, and enter fillies races, and put true mares out of contention
Well yes they would you are right and the moment a colt asks to be identified as a filly then I will be on the barricades with you.
Meanwhile in human consciousness world the term "woman" is simply a social construct. A long-standing one but not necessarily an immutable one. The world is a changing why did you know that many years ago it was legal to hunt foxes. Yes seriously.
SNP leadership still doubling down on assertion that you Brits will be paying for Scots' pensions after Indy.
Be interested if our resident PB SNPers are sold on this. Don't think they've commented so far?
Don't have a lot of time for Gorgeous George but enjoyed this tweet:
George Galloway @georgegalloway · 33m If #Scots think #England will pay their pension in the event of #independence then no greater testimony to the collapse of Scotland’s once famous education system could exist. Not to mention our once infamous reputation of a tight-grasp of monetary matters.
It is not surprising at all
(a) HMG has always said it's a contributory scheme - you pay in, you get (b) HMT said it would cover HMG obligations in the events of independence (c) in 2014 HMG, I think the DHSS or whatever dept dealt with pensions, was confirming the position when asked. (d) we're all familiar with former UK citizens being paid their OAP after they emigrate to another country
Of course,it's a Ponzi job, and in reality negotiations would quite possibly trump that. But HMG did make promises more generally.
Shall we try to calm things down and talk about womens' rights instead? 😁
What exactly is a woman.
Do you think colts/geldings should be allowed to identify as fillies/mares for racing purposes? Why not?
I do. Why not? It's a horse. Should there be Ladies & Gentlemen's racing under rules?
Put the kettle on.
Is that a tip? But for which race? Put the Kettle On is 16/1 for the Mares Chase and 25/1 for the Queen Mother Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. She won at the last two Festivals, of course. I'd back her in the Mares Chase if that is connections' choice. Maybe it is time to check the NRNB prices.
SNP leadership still doubling down on assertion that you Brits will be paying for Scots' pensions after Indy.
Be interested if our resident PB SNPers are sold on this. Don't think they've commented so far?
Don't have a lot of time for Gorgeous George but enjoyed this tweet:
George Galloway @georgegalloway · 33m If #Scots think #England will pay their pension in the event of #independence then no greater testimony to the collapse of Scotland’s once famous education system could exist. Not to mention our once infamous reputation of a tight-grasp of monetary matters.
It is not surprising at all
(a) HMG has always said it's a contributory scheme - you pay in, you get (b) HMT said it would cover HMG obligations in the events of independence (c) in 2014 HMG, I think the DHSS or whatever dept dealt with pensions, was confirming the position when asked. (d) we're all familiar with former UK citizens being paid their OAP after they emigrate to another country
Of course,it's a Ponzi job, and in reality negotiations would quite possibly trump that. But HMG did make promises more generally.
Any rUK government that agreed to fund the pensions in an independent Scotland would be wiped out at the next election. It would also be immoral. Payment of pensions to citizens domiciled abroad is a completely different case. It is possible that anyone resident in Scotland could be allowed to opt for rUK citizenship but if that became wholesale there might be restrictions (like not born in Scotland..).
Wind is great when it's windy but not much use when it isn't - and we don't currently have any sane way to store enough power to get us through 2 to 3 days of zero wind when that happens (and will we ever have enough storage).
Until we have a large surplus of wind that needs to be regularly stored we're never going to find out which potential storage technology scales economically to store the energy, because the energy doesn't need to be stored now.
So we need to get on and build the wind turbines and create the surplus so that the market can work out what storage technology works. We can't wait until we've designed all the bits in advance.
The other market, of course, is the inter-country interconnects. Which already exists, and will get much larger.
Blocking highs usually cover most of western Europe.
That's not true. There is much variety.
You get the Scandinavian Highs which bring easterly winds across the continent to the south. You get Atlantic highs which bring northerly winds over Britain and Ireland to their east. You get highs which are more centred over western Europe, but their extent varies, and so too where the winds are at the edge.
Wind is great when it's windy but not much use when it isn't - and we don't currently have any sane way to store enough power to get us through 2 to 3 days of zero wind when that happens (and will we ever have enough storage).
Until we have a large surplus of wind that needs to be regularly stored we're never going to find out which potential storage technology scales economically to store the energy, because the energy doesn't need to be stored now.
So we need to get on and build the wind turbines and create the surplus so that the market can work out what storage technology works. We can't wait until we've designed all the bits in advance.
The other market, of course, is the inter-country interconnects. Which already exists, and will get much larger.
Blocking highs usually cover most of western Europe.
That's not true. There is much variety.
You get the Scandinavian Highs which bring easterly winds across the continent to the south. You get Atlantic highs which bring northerly winds over Britain and Ireland to their east. You get highs which are more centred over western Europe, but their extent varies, and so too where the winds are at the edge.
True but just imagine a nice big high lasting several weeks with very cold temperatures. They happen reasonably frequently. What would be the death toll? Direct deaths and indirect (like very limited health and emergency services). The current energy plans are worse than Russian Roulette.
Wind is great when it's windy but not much use when it isn't - and we don't currently have any sane way to store enough power to get us through 2 to 3 days of zero wind when that happens (and will we ever have enough storage).
Until we have a large surplus of wind that needs to be regularly stored we're never going to find out which potential storage technology scales economically to store the energy, because the energy doesn't need to be stored now.
So we need to get on and build the wind turbines and create the surplus so that the market can work out what storage technology works. We can't wait until we've designed all the bits in advance.
Magnificent leap of faith! What if the best solution that the market comes up with falls short or is too expensive?
I found one estimate on the internet that the lifetime cost of battery storage is currently 13p per kWh stored, so that puts an upper limit on the cost, and we're already going to be building masses of batteries for cars. The chances of the price not coming down significantly is low.
That sets a bar for all the other technologies to compete with.
Wind is great when it's windy but not much use when it isn't - and we don't currently have any sane way to store enough power to get us through 2 to 3 days of zero wind when that happens (and will we ever have enough storage).
Until we have a large surplus of wind that needs to be regularly stored we're never going to find out which potential storage technology scales economically to store the energy, because the energy doesn't need to be stored now.
So we need to get on and build the wind turbines and create the surplus so that the market can work out what storage technology works. We can't wait until we've designed all the bits in advance.
The other market, of course, is the inter-country interconnects. Which already exists, and will get much larger.
Blocking highs usually cover most of western Europe.
Large scale continent wide interconnects won't remove that problem, but they would greatly mitigate it - particularly when other renewables are added into the mix.
But if you have sufficient renewables capacity, then it is manageable without excessive cost. There's been a lot of back and forth on this; here's recent example:
Response to 'Burden of proof: A comprehensive review of the feasibility of 100% renewable-electricity systems' https://www.researchgate.net/publication/319895138_Response_to_'Burden_of_proof_A_comprehensive_review_of_the_feasibility_of_100_renewable-electricity_systems' …So what would it cost to maintain an open-cycle gas turbine (OCGT) fleet to cover, for example, Germany's peak demand of 80 GW? For the OCGT we take the cost assumptions from [117]: overnight investment cost of 400 €/kW, fixed operation and maintenance cost of 15 €/kW/a, lifetime of 30 years and discount rate of 10%. The latter two figures given an annuity of 10.6% of the overnight investment cost, so the annual cost per kW is 57.4 €/kW/a. For a peak load of 80 GW, assuming 90% availability of the OCGT, the total annual cost is therefore 5.1 billion €/a. Germany consumes more than 500 TWh/a, so this guaranteed capacity costs less than 0.01 €/kWh. This is just 7.3% of total spending on electricity in Germany (69.4 billion € in 2015 [118]). We are not suggesting that Germany builds an OCGT fleet to cover its peak demand. This is a worst-case rhetorical thought experiment, assuming that no biomass, hydroelectricity, demand response, imports or medium-term storage can be activated, yet it is still low cost. Solutions that use storage that is already in the system are likely to be even lower cost. However, some OCGT capacity could also be attractive for other reasons: it is a flexible source of upward reserve power and it can be used for other ancillary services such as inertia provision, fault current, voltage regulation and black-starting the system. A clutch can even be put on the shaft to decouple the generator from the turbine and allow the generator to operate in synchronous compensator mode, which means it can also provide many ancillary services without burning gas…
The John Hopkins study is being reported in the mainstream media despite being accused of being propaganda by supporters of the Great Barrington Declaration.
Putting aside that it's written by economists affiliated to the AEIR (who were behind the GBD) and non-peer-reviewed, there are some HUGE issues: - It claims to be a meta-analysis, but fails to follow meta-analysis requirements (no objective Risk of Bias measurement, no heterogeneity value) - They claim to be doing difference-in-difference estimation, and that they have therefore checks whether each study they select uses diff-in-diff but the studies they cite at absurdly high weightings don't use this or even mention it. - They go through studies and end up claiming that this one or that one have conclusions that are non-intuitive. Their own conclusions are that neither border closures nor lockdowns have any discernible effect. Which implies therefore that Australia and New Zealand were just lucky and their border closures and lockdowns didn't help in any way, which I would see as quite non-intuitive - It uses as criteria for quality of studies whether they are written by social studies (including economics) or others (including epidemiologists). This means that they weight an obscure study by economists in a journal flagged as a predatory one with a weight of 7,390 (so it swamps all of the other ones in its table, which were weighted at 119, 248, n/a, 26, 11, and 256. As it happens, they've interpreted that article as saying there are no effects. - The one weighted at 11 finds large effects, but it is seen as low quality because it is a study on epidemiology written by epidemiologists (and therefore low quality) rather than economists (which would be high quality)! - The study that overwhelms the others actually concludes:
"... The findings suggest that the implementation of less strict intervention measures is not effective in reducing the number of deaths, whereas interventions at higher levels of severity reduce deaths.
In addition, the authors of [18] found that the greater the strength of government interventions is at an early stage, the more effective the interventions are in decreasing or reversing the mortality rate. Findings from [19] also suggest that higher government stringency is a key predictor for the cumulative number of cases. Therefore, quick and early action by the government in imposing strict measures is important in slowing down the spread of the virus."
... and ...
"... This finding implies that a combination of interventions related to a strict lockdown environment and public awareness (such as closures of schools and workplaces, cancellations of public events, travel restrictions, keeping the public informed, testing and contact tracing) was most likely a more effective measure of slowing down the spread of the virus and the related number of deaths."
I doubt that those clinging to what it says have read it or care about these issues. It's just useful for people to have an outwardly credible response for the "research" method of typing into Google "what I want to be true"
Are interest rates definitely going up again? I can hardly afford to pay my mortgage already ffs
Historically they are very low - anyone who mortgaged to the hilt over the last few years was taking a huge risk re affordability. Savers - who essentially fund all mortgages - have had very low rates for years. At some point that had to change.
Its only going to benefit the old property owning class (as usual) and hurt the millennials and younger who struggled to even get a foot on the ladder in the first place. “Had to change” my ass.
What it really does is muck around all the incentives to do "rational" things with money, in a way that worsens the housing situation.
My young lady and I (neither of us exactly old money, both more working class) presently have a similarly sized modest house each, both about 50% paid off. She's moving up to mine after we get married, which means her house is surplus to requirements.
The problem is that as hers is worth about twice what mine is (she's Bath/Bristol commuter belt, I'm in the frozen northern wastelands), so if we sell hers, we can pay my mortgage off (great), then we will end up with a pile of cash in the bank. What problem - I hear you ask? Well, my house is ideal for a couple, or possibly a couple with one small child. It wouldn't be great for a family with say a couple of teenagers, which could well be us in 15 years time.
But if we leave our pile of cash left over from her house as savings, and want to up-size in 5-10 years time, it won't be worth anything like it is now, thanks to inflation working its wicked way, and saving rates being zero.
So the logical options we have are to either sit on her house and rent it out - the rent should about cover the mortgage, and of course the house should keep up with price inflation, or sell mine as well, and upsize now. We'll probably do better in the long-term if we rent it out, but it mostly depends on how soon we think we might want to cash in and upsize.
Both options aren't great for everyone not on the housing ladder - we either have someone else paying rent rather than owning, or we end occuying a house bigger than we need, thus jacking up the price of housing....
I'd suggest find a decent financial advisor who should be able to comfortably beat the rate of inflation with decent investments.
If the rent only covers the mortgage, that will drain you of maintenance and management costs - which will typically be perhaps 22-25% of the rent on average.
The idea that LLs do nothing but rake in the money is a myth perpetrated by various so-called 'tenant' organisations. Don't believe it.
Plus you will need to budget for shortfalls and bulges, when for example it needs a new kitchen or bathroom. If it is a modern house with a half-paid mortgage, that may be soon.
Or if the Energy Regulations bite - it will need to be an EPC D by 2025 and a C by 2030.
One tax point is that as an owner-occupier now she will get the subsidy to remove any CGT that would be due, whilst if it is rented CGT will apply to further gains.
I can see the value in keeping a house at both ends, if House Prices change in an unbalanced manner. If we get a Government with the political courage to deal with the distorted Housing Market, then all predictions are off.
Comments
It takes 2 to tango and 1 side (the EU) has literally zero incentive to play ball because it's in their collective interests to not do so. That is one of the problems that Bozo and others didn't think through, we thought the game was a version of happy families when it was actually a game of Go, 4 dimensional chess, or no limits Texas Holdem.
Be interested if our resident PB SNPers are sold on this. Don't think they've commented so far?
Don't have a lot of time for Gorgeous George but enjoyed this tweet:
George Galloway
@georgegalloway
·
33m
If #Scots think #England will pay their pension in the event of #independence then no greater testimony to the collapse of Scotland’s once famous education system could exist. Not to mention our once infamous reputation of a tight-grasp of monetary matters.
(Boxing and Weightlifting are also at risk because they are dodgy AF)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/59160490
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/jan/16/panic-as-kosovo-pulls-the-plug-on-its-energy-guzzling-bitcoin-miners
The Crypto-craze will be looked back upon in the future with astonishment. At least tulip bulbs had a use.
New Thread
There was actually a method behind the madness: sex sells, and sex can be a good way to introduce new tech to markets. VR has been pounding the porn markets heavily, although I don't know how successful it's been in generating hardware sales.
The problem with teledildonics back then was that the rigs cost £10,000 or more (often much more). It simply was too expensive. Nowadays, even with cheaper rigs that we can carry around in our pockets, it is probably competing against PornHub, Tinder and other ways of getting your rocks off.
And I hope and believe it won't work in future because people will stop paying money for an asset that isn't used for anything except hoping it'll go up, and where it's mathematically guaranteed that the average investor will take out less than they put in.
So the GFA has been abrogated, and Unionists have a right to feel aggrieved (though since they were hoping to impose a border on the island of Ireland instead to hold off Unification, my sympathy is attenuated).
I've no idea what will solve the issue, though, before Bart mentions it, I can recommend some excellent fudge, which might help future negotiations if not form the basis of a solution.
The MD pressured the FD to present the 'right' result to the bank (basically, all senior management were in on it, and senior management were also the shareholders, presenting us as auditors in an impossible situation).
The audit was a shambles. To his credit, the audit partner flatly refused to completely roll over. We insisted on £200k of adjustments (to a £50k loss) and repped the rest. They did this basically every year. Towards the end the real balance sheet was a complete disaster but a friendly bank kept them going till an outside investor saw something we didn't and bought them out.
Also available in Harrods and Fortnum and Masons in fancier packaging at a lot higher price (she supplies both or at least did last time I saw her).
No more 'Me Tarzan, you Jane.' Instead it would be 'Me Tarzan, you Tarzan.....Everybody Tarzan!'
Would save a lot of argument, and make the changing rooms a lot more fun.
[For the avoidance of doubt I should state that nothing amuses me more than sending up The Painfully Woke.]
Meanwhile in human consciousness world the term "woman" is simply a social construct. A long-standing one but not necessarily an immutable one. The world is a changing why did you know that many years ago it was legal to hunt foxes. Yes seriously.
(a) HMG has always said it's a contributory scheme - you pay in, you get
(b) HMT said it would cover HMG obligations in the events of independence
(c) in 2014 HMG, I think the DHSS or whatever dept dealt with pensions, was confirming the position when asked.
(d) we're all familiar with former UK citizens being paid their OAP after they emigrate to another country
Of course,it's a Ponzi job, and in reality negotiations would quite possibly trump that. But HMG did make promises more generally.
You get the Scandinavian Highs which bring easterly winds across the continent to the south. You get Atlantic highs which bring northerly winds over Britain and Ireland to their east. You get highs which are more centred over western Europe, but their extent varies, and so too where the winds are at the edge.
That sets a bar for all the other technologies to compete with.
But if you have sufficient renewables capacity, then it is manageable without excessive cost. There's been a lot of back and forth on this; here's recent example:
Response to 'Burden of proof: A comprehensive review of the feasibility of 100% renewable-electricity systems'
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/319895138_Response_to_'Burden_of_proof_A_comprehensive_review_of_the_feasibility_of_100_renewable-electricity_systems'
…So what would it cost to maintain an open-cycle gas turbine (OCGT) fleet to cover, for example, Germany's peak demand of 80 GW? For the OCGT we take the cost assumptions from [117]: overnight investment cost of 400 €/kW, fixed operation and maintenance cost of 15 €/kW/a, lifetime of 30 years and discount rate of 10%. The latter two figures given an annuity of 10.6% of the overnight investment cost, so the annual cost per kW is 57.4 €/kW/a. For a peak load of 80 GW, assuming 90% availability of the OCGT, the total annual cost is therefore 5.1 billion €/a. Germany consumes more than 500 TWh/a, so this guaranteed capacity costs less than 0.01 €/kWh. This is just 7.3% of total spending on electricity in Germany (69.4 billion € in 2015 [118]).
We are not suggesting that Germany builds an OCGT fleet to cover its peak demand. This is a worst-case rhetorical thought experiment, assuming that no biomass, hydroelectricity, demand response, imports or medium-term storage can be activated, yet it is still low cost. Solutions that use storage that is already in the system are likely to be even lower cost. However, some OCGT capacity could also be attractive for other reasons: it is a flexible source of upward reserve power and it can be used for other ancillary services such as inertia provision, fault current, voltage regulation and black-starting the system. A clutch can even be put on the shaft to decouple the generator from the turbine and allow the generator to operate in synchronous compensator mode, which means it can also provide many ancillary services without burning gas…
Putting aside that it's written by economists affiliated to the AEIR (who were behind the GBD) and non-peer-reviewed, there are some HUGE issues:
- It claims to be a meta-analysis, but fails to follow meta-analysis requirements (no objective Risk of Bias measurement, no heterogeneity value)
- They claim to be doing difference-in-difference estimation, and that they have therefore checks whether each study they select uses diff-in-diff but the studies they cite at absurdly high weightings don't use this or even mention it.
- They go through studies and end up claiming that this one or that one have conclusions that are non-intuitive. Their own conclusions are that neither border closures nor lockdowns have any discernible effect. Which implies therefore that Australia and New Zealand were just lucky and their border closures and lockdowns didn't help in any way, which I would see as quite non-intuitive
- It uses as criteria for quality of studies whether they are written by social studies (including economics) or others (including epidemiologists). This means that they weight an obscure study by economists in a journal flagged as a predatory one with a weight of 7,390 (so it swamps all of the other ones in its table, which were weighted at 119, 248, n/a, 26, 11, and 256. As it happens, they've interpreted that article as saying there are no effects.
- The one weighted at 11 finds large effects, but it is seen as low quality because it is a study on epidemiology written by epidemiologists (and therefore low quality) rather than economists (which would be high quality)!
- The study that overwhelms the others actually concludes:
"... The findings suggest that the implementation of less strict intervention measures is not effective in reducing the number of deaths, whereas interventions at higher levels of severity reduce deaths.
In addition, the authors of [18] found that the greater the strength of government interventions is at an early stage, the more effective the interventions are in decreasing or reversing the mortality rate. Findings from [19] also suggest that higher government stringency is a key predictor for the cumulative number of cases. Therefore, quick and early action by the government in imposing strict measures is important in slowing down the spread of the virus."
... and ...
"... This finding implies that a combination of interventions related to a strict lockdown environment and public awareness (such as closures of schools and workplaces, cancellations of public events, travel restrictions, keeping the public informed, testing and contact tracing) was most
likely a more effective measure of slowing down the spread of the virus and the related number of deaths."
I doubt that those clinging to what it says have read it or care about these issues. It's just useful for people to have an outwardly credible response for the "research" method of typing into Google "what I want to be true"
Interesting note on the penalty points.
The idea that LLs do nothing but rake in the money is a myth perpetrated by various so-called 'tenant' organisations. Don't believe it.
Plus you will need to budget for shortfalls and bulges, when for example it needs a new kitchen or bathroom. If it is a modern house with a half-paid mortgage, that may be soon.
Or if the Energy Regulations bite - it will need to be an EPC D by 2025 and a C by 2030.
One tax point is that as an owner-occupier now she will get the subsidy to remove any CGT that would be due, whilst if it is rented CGT will apply to further gains.
I can see the value in keeping a house at both ends, if House Prices change in an unbalanced manner. If we get a Government with the political courage to deal with the distorted Housing Market, then all predictions are off.
Jacob Rees-Mogg has just cited at length @Keir_Starmer statement when he was DPP about Savile case. Likens it to ministerial responsibility for No10, "What's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander".
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1489198878008217609
He is LITERALLY calling him an ACTUAL kiddy fiddler.
Nuvaxovid is now the fifth COVID-19 vaccine authorised for use within the UK.
Read more: https://gov.uk/government/news/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-nuvaxovid-approved-by-mhra…
#Novavax #Nuvaxovid #COVD19
https://twitter.com/MHRAgovuk/status/1489252791033815049?s=20&t=OoxHxT__z1uvzlbnJin5aw