Are interest rates definitely going up again? I can hardly afford to pay my mortgage already ffs
Historically they are very low - anyone who mortgaged to the hilt over the last few years was taking a huge risk re affordability. Savers - who essentially fund all mortgages - have had very low rates for years. At some point that had to change.
Its only going to benefit the old property owning class (as usual) and hurt the millennials and younger who struggled to even get a foot on the ladder in the first place. “Had to change” my ass.
Rubbish - why should 000s of renters struggling to save for a deposit pay for your cheap mortgage?
Why should they subsidise wealthy retirees by paying more National Insurance?
The only question is now will he lose with the dignity of Donald Trump?
I had dinner last night with a senior Tory.
View was that Boris is toast. The 54 will happen, possibly after the Met report, and his support will collapse at that point. Very few friends in the parliamentary party. But he will fight not resign
When he's on the backbenches he's going to be a complete pain in the dick for his successor. The havoc he is going wreak on the party out of spite has to be a factor in the tory MPs' calculations.
Wow. @Ianblackford_MP doubles down on pensions. He repeats lie about what Chief Secretary to the Treasury said in 2014, and confirms new SNP pension policy: independent Scottish Government *won’t pay the state pension*. Pensioners expected to believe UK Government would pay.
The SNP have learned a lot from Boris/Gove/Cummings.
The thing is, there is a certain credibility threshold.
What other country has all their state pensions paid by a neighbouring country?
The true believers will believe it, so that they don't have to worry about the problems with Independence, but those uncertain in the middle - not a chance.
So second concert (Echo and the Bunnymen) since the end of Covid and the first clue that both me (and the acts) are getting old.
Ian McCulloch had to leave the stage half way through the concert due to a bad back
Seen 3 bands since the end of lockdown - The Waterboys, Suede and Public Service Broadcasting. The first in Sheffield was a little muted as restrictions were still very much in place. The other two were just glorious. Both at Rock City in Nottingham and wildly exuberant. You could sense the palpable relief and joy that things were getting back to normal.
So second concert (Echo and the Bunnymen) since the end of Covid and the first clue that both me (and the acts) are getting old.
Ian McCulloch had to leave the stage half way through the concert due to a bad back
Seen 3 bands since the end of lockdown - The Waterboys, Suede and Public Service Broadcasting. The first in Sheffield was a little muted as restrictions were still very much in place. The other two were just glorious. Both at Rock City in Nottingham and wildly exuberant. You could sense the palpable relief and joy that things were getting back to normal.
By end of Covid I mean January. Mrs Eek saw Suede at Manchester back in November and managed to catch Covid then give it to me.
Public Service Broadcasting - Eek twin A stole my ticket but I'll see then in Belfast later this year.
Are interest rates definitely going up again? I can hardly afford to pay my mortgage already ffs
Historically they are very low - anyone who mortgaged to the hilt over the last few years was taking a huge risk re affordability. Savers - who essentially fund all mortgages - have had very low rates for years. At some point that had to change.
Its only going to benefit the old property owning class (as usual) and hurt the millennials and younger who struggled to even get a foot on the ladder in the first place. “Had to change” my ass.
Rubbish - why should 000s of renters struggling to save for a deposit pay for your cheap mortgage?
If they’re struggling to save for a deposit they’re not going to be paying for my cheap mortgage are they?
Economic policy since the GFC has been to keep asset prices artificially high vs wages through QE and low interest rates. That is the main cause of generational economic unfairness. Increasing interest rates starts to unwind that, although not by much if they are still way behind inflation.
It may be bad for recent buyers of houses of any age, but increasing interest rates is better economically for the young as a whole than it is for the old as a whole.
Politically it will be a disaster so govts will put it off as long as they possibly can, but at some point we will need to get back to "normal", whether that starts now or in 10 years no-one knows.
Finland has also been more vocally supportive of NATO than it has ever previously been.
(As an aside, Ukraine would be a good purchaser of some of those Saab fighters.)
Gripen E/F is completely incompatible with all of their existing weapons and MRO/logistics setup. They are far better off pursuing their MiG-29MU1/2 upgrade project with Elbit.
The Gripen hasn't secured an export order for 8 years. It's struggling because of F-16s released into the market by F-35 purchases on the bottom end and the very effective Rafale sales operation at the top end of the market.
And the F16 with the radar upgrade is a very capable piece of kit.
Yep - and organising a new stand-off with the EU in Northern Ireland should seal the deal. We are stuck with him for the foreseeable future.
HMG‘s view on the powers of NI is truly interesting. The lesson for foreign partners: you have to negotiate with devolved executives, not Westminster, if you want your agreement to be complied with. Not sure that‘s the message HMG wants to send. https://twitter.com/hhesterm/status/1489141703135145987
The only question is now will he lose with the dignity of Donald Trump?
I had dinner last night with a senior Tory.
View was that Boris is toast. The 54 will happen, possibly after the Met report, and his support will collapse at that point. Very few friends in the parliamentary party. But he will fight not resign
When he's on the backbenches he's going to be a complete pain in the dick for his successor. The havoc he is going wreak on the party out of spite has to be a factor in the tory MPs' calculations.
So second concert (Echo and the Bunnymen) since the end of Covid and the first clue that both me (and the acts) are getting old.
Ian McCulloch had to leave the stage half way through the concert due to a bad back
Seen 3 bands since the end of lockdown - The Waterboys, Suede and Public Service Broadcasting. The first in Sheffield was a little muted as restrictions were still very much in place. The other two were just glorious. Both at Rock City in Nottingham and wildly exuberant. You could sense the palpable relief and joy that things were getting back to normal.
If you like The Waterboys and PSB you may like the radio programme produced by a former alumni of this Site. She's quite fond of them too and regularly promotes their work.
In relation to NI Protocol checks: I’m a Conservative. I believe in the Rule of Law and adhering to obligations we voluntarily entered. There’s no ifs and buts on this. The reputation of the UK on these matters is important. Anyone who cares about the UK should feel the same https://twitter.com/Simon4NDorset/status/1489144727706476545
So second concert (Echo and the Bunnymen) since the end of Covid and the first clue that both me (and the acts) are getting old.
Ian McCulloch had to leave the stage half way through the concert due to a bad back
Seen 3 bands since the end of lockdown - The Waterboys, Suede and Public Service Broadcasting. The first in Sheffield was a little muted as restrictions were still very much in place. The other two were just glorious. Both at Rock City in Nottingham and wildly exuberant. You could sense the palpable relief and joy that things were getting back to normal.
If you like The Waterboys and PSB you may like the radio programme produced by a former alumni of this Site. She's quite fond of them too and regularly promotes their work.
As you say 'One to watch'. That was excellent. She's the one who came out with that clever line when asked what she thought about Long Bailey's sacking "The gaffer picks the team"
Meanwhile, entirely predictably the Ukrainian Gov't are fed up with the US and UK pumping out bellicose rhetoric and winding up Russia. The Russians obviously don't have anything like sufficient troop numbers to launch a full scale invasion.
The whole thing is wildly exaggerated.
Anyone would think Boris Johnson was trying to deflect attention away from something ...
The only question is now will he lose with the dignity of Donald Trump?
I had dinner last night with a senior Tory.
View was that Boris is toast. The 54 will happen, possibly after the Met report, and his support will collapse at that point. Very few friends in the parliamentary party. But he will fight not resign
When he's on the backbenches he's going to be a complete pain in the dick for his successor. The havoc he is going wreak on the party out of spite has to be a factor in the tory MPs' calculations.
Or he resigns and goes off in search of £££
To the US and $$$$$$$$$.
If he's ousted Boris Johnson won't stay on the backbenches more than 5 seconds. His ego is too huge and his pocket too empty. He'll be out the door faster than Tony Blair, and Uxbridge will be a marginal by-election.
The only question is now will he lose with the dignity of Donald Trump?
I had dinner last night with a senior Tory.
View was that Boris is toast. The 54 will happen, possibly after the Met report, and his support will collapse at that point. Very few friends in the parliamentary party. But he will fight not resign
Fight what? If he loses a VONC he doesn't have a choice but to resign, nor can he stand again under Hague's Rules, which are hardly going to be altered for him.
Would be hilarious if like Corbyn he lost the whip for being an arrogant dick.
If he really wants to be an arrogant dick, and if he really misunderstands Churchill (actually, scrub that second if), how far can he take the Wilderness Years schtick?
Would him not being an MP be enough to shut him up? Rationally, one would think so, but this is Boris the Unflushable we're talking about.
I like Boris the Unflushable; it is hereby added to his long list of PB titles and whatever is the opposite of honorifics.
Pretty tenuous connection to Mordaunt in the article.
"Another five, including members of the government, are considering submitting their letters as soon as today, according to The Times.
It has also been revealed that trade minister Penny Mordaunt blasted the 'stupidity' of the current leadership in a letter to a constituent, in one of the most senior members of the government to hit out at Mr Johnson."
I think there's dots to be joined there. Stupidity is strong language.
The only question is now will he lose with the dignity of Donald Trump?
I had dinner last night with a senior Tory.
View was that Boris is toast. The 54 will happen, possibly after the Met report, and his support will collapse at that point. Very few friends in the parliamentary party. But he will fight not resign
Fight what? If he loses a VONC he doesn't have a choice but to resign, nor can he stand again under Hague's Rules, which are hardly going to be altered for him.
Would be hilarious if like Corbyn he lost the whip for being an arrogant dick.
If he really wants to be an arrogant dick, and if he really misunderstands Churchill (actually, scrub that second if), how far can he take the Wilderness Years schtick?
Would him not being an MP be enough to shut him up? Rationally, one would think so, but this is Boris the Unflushable we're talking about.
Meanwhile, entirely predictably the Ukrainian Gov't are fed up with the US and UK pumping out bellicose rhetoric and winding up Russia. The Russians obviously don't have anything like sufficient troop numbers to launch a full scale invasion.
The whole thing is wildly exaggerated.
Anyone would think Boris Johnson was trying to deflect attention away from something ...
Unsurprisingly the article doesn't say what you claim at all. More importantly neither do the Ukrainians. Yes there are differences of opinion as to the timing but the article makes clear the Ukrainians believe an incursion is going to happen.
The only question is now will he lose with the dignity of Donald Trump?
I had dinner last night with a senior Tory.
View was that Boris is toast. The 54 will happen, possibly after the Met report, and his support will collapse at that point. Very few friends in the parliamentary party. But he will fight not resign
When he's on the backbenches he's going to be a complete pain in the dick for his successor. The havoc he is going wreak on the party out of spite has to be a factor in the tory MPs' calculations.
Or he resigns and goes off in search of £££
To the US and $$$$$$$$$.
Thats not all he'll go off looking for.... it wont be Dilyn the dog who needs keeping on a piece of string by Carrie
Are interest rates definitely going up again? I can hardly afford to pay my mortgage already ffs
Yes and they’re pushing on a piece of string. Less than 10% of households are on a variable mortgage and the inflationary pressures are largely due to global supply constraints.
Interesting piece in the Atlantic about how climate change is driving inflation. I hadn't appreciated that part of the chip shortage problem is due to drought in Taiwan, and interesting points on US lumber prices and housing starts.
For £40 per year, The Atlantic does some great writing.
Excellent article. I let my subscription lapse before Christmas because the election was over but it is simply the best western periodical at the moment. Vastly superior to the Economist, for example.
An independent Scotland inside the EU would inevitably lead to checkpoints being built along the border with England, according to a study published on Thursday.
It concluded that the practicalities of Scottish independence had been made even more complex by Brexit, particularly when it came to managing borders.
And it said it was “vital” that any future prospectus or White Paper on independence from the Scottish Government addressed exactly how it would approach the border issue.
One thing to thank Johnson for is that for the first time in several years Labour look like a serious force again. Starmer is a changed man. It's a long time since an opposition leader has held the House's attention like he's done in his last three appearances and watching the clip of Lisa Nandy eviscerating Michael Gove is something to behold.
Today is important as Rishi takes centre stage in his big audition and then we close in on the weekend and newspaper headlines
I expect a vonc very soon, maybe as early as next week
I hope so but who knows. I think there will be some grim opinion polls for the tories this weekend.
The opinion polls have been grim for weeks but Boris is in his last few weeks as PM
I'd expect the Tories to get a reasonable bounce - Labour lead down to 6-7, maybe? - from today's announcements - actually doing something, however limited and ineffective, instead of just filling the airwaves with denials about parties. But it's a tactical success if that happens, since the reality of larger cost increases followed by the later stages of Partygate unfold.
Meanwhile, entirely predictably the Ukrainian Gov't are fed up with the US and UK pumping out bellicose rhetoric and winding up Russia. The Russians obviously don't have anything like sufficient troop numbers to launch a full scale invasion.
The whole thing is wildly exaggerated.
Anyone would think Boris Johnson was trying to deflect attention away from something ...
Unsurprisingly the article doesn't say what you claim at all. More importantly neither do the Ukrainians. Yes there are differences of opinion as to the timing but the article makes clear the Ukrainians believe an incursion is going to happen.
Ah but, see, you have just entirely altered my words.
You wrote: "the Ukrainians believe an incursion is going to happen."
I wrote: "the Russians obviously don't have anything like sufficient troop numbers to launch a full scale invasion"
Do you see the massive difference? If you don't, let me help you:
Incursion vs Full-scale invasion
The Russians have been in and around the Ukrainian border, with various incursions and skirmishes for EIGHT years. Yes this one is a bit more ramped but there is wild, wild, exaggeration and rhetoric going on from people who have little understanding of the region, very little knowledge of the military, and a large dose of gullibility.
No wonder the Ukrainian Gov't are getting cheesed off.
I've got a lot of time for Brandon but this is a remarkable line to take - whether the UK abides by its international legal commitments is a matter for the Northern Ireland Executive??? I suspect the Scottish government will be quoting that back to the UK government at some point.....
I think the legal advice that @edwinpootsmla received needs to be made public. If it really is the case that devolved ministers aren't required to honour the UK's international commitments, can we all agree that the law should be changed to ensure they are?
Today is important as Rishi takes centre stage in his big audition and then we close in on the weekend and newspaper headlines
I expect a vonc very soon, maybe as early as next week
I hope so but who knows. I think there will be some grim opinion polls for the tories this weekend.
The opinion polls have been grim for weeks but Boris is in his last few weeks as PM
I'd expect the Tories to get a reasonable bounce - Labour lead down to 6-7, maybe? - from today's announcements - actually doing something, however limited and ineffective, instead of just filling the airwaves with denials about parties. But it's a tactical success if that happens, since the reality of larger cost increases followed by the later stages of Partygate unfold.
Not so sure, Nick. Interest rates probably going up today ...
Meanwhile, entirely predictably the Ukrainian Gov't are fed up with the US and UK pumping out bellicose rhetoric and winding up Russia. The Russians obviously don't have anything like sufficient troop numbers to launch a full scale invasion.
The whole thing is wildly exaggerated.
Anyone would think Boris Johnson was trying to deflect attention away from something ...
Unsurprisingly the article doesn't say what you claim at all. More importantly neither do the Ukrainians. Yes there are differences of opinion as to the timing but the article makes clear the Ukrainians believe an incursion is going to happen.
Ah but, see, you have just entirely altered my words.
You wrote: "the Ukrainians believe an incursion is going to happen."
I wrote: "the Russians obviously don't have anything like sufficient troop numbers to launch a full scale invasion"
Do you see the massive difference? If you don't, let me help you:
Incursion vs Full-scale invasion
The Russians have been in and around the Ukrainian border, with various incursions and skirmishes for EIGHT years. Yes this one is a bit more ramped but there is wild, wild, exaggeration and rhetoric going on from people who have little understanding of the region, very little knowledge of the military, and a large dose of gullibility.
No wonder the Ukrainian Gov't are getting cheesed off.
On this you are just so wrong and attempting to excuse Putin's aggressive behaviour
Ukraine and its people waving the union jack in gratitude for our help while the President of Ukraine is disgusted with Germany
Furthermore the Baltic states are grateful for UK support
Meanwhile, entirely predictably the Ukrainian Gov't are fed up with the US and UK pumping out bellicose rhetoric and winding up Russia. The Russians obviously don't have anything like sufficient troop numbers to launch a full scale invasion.
The whole thing is wildly exaggerated.
Anyone would think Boris Johnson was trying to deflect attention away from something ...
Unsurprisingly the article doesn't say what you claim at all. More importantly neither do the Ukrainians. Yes there are differences of opinion as to the timing but the article makes clear the Ukrainians believe an incursion is going to happen.
The Russian troop deployments are literally visible from space. Plenty of commercial imagery showing them.
I know Putin likes the they-were-just-on-holiday excuse for his military turning up in various places, but 100K+ ??
Meanwhile, entirely predictably the Ukrainian Gov't are fed up with the US and UK pumping out bellicose rhetoric and winding up Russia. The Russians obviously don't have anything like sufficient troop numbers to launch a full scale invasion.
The whole thing is wildly exaggerated.
Anyone would think Boris Johnson was trying to deflect attention away from something ...
Unsurprisingly the article doesn't say what you claim at all. More importantly neither do the Ukrainians. Yes there are differences of opinion as to the timing but the article makes clear the Ukrainians believe an incursion is going to happen.
Ah but, see, you have just entirely altered my words.
You wrote: "the Ukrainians believe an incursion is going to happen."
I wrote: "the Russians obviously don't have anything like sufficient troop numbers to launch a full scale invasion"
Do you see the massive difference? If you don't, let me help you:
Incursion vs Full-scale invasion
The Russians have been in and around the Ukrainian border, with various incursions and skirmishes for EIGHT years. Yes this one is a bit more ramped but there is wild, wild, exaggeration and rhetoric going on from people who have little understanding of the region, very little knowledge of the military, and a large dose of gullibility.
No wonder the Ukrainian Gov't are getting cheesed off.
So what you are actually doing is setting up a straw man and using that to justify ignoring the legitimate concerns of Ukraine, other countries in Eastern Europe and NATO. That is both very obvious and sad. Pretty shameful from you.
Edit : Oh and it was the Ukrainians themselves who complained about the US downplaying Russian activity as minor incursions.
Are interest rates definitely going up again? I can hardly afford to pay my mortgage already ffs
Yes and they’re pushing on a piece of string. Less than 10% of households are on a variable mortgage and the inflationary pressures are largely due to global supply constraints.
Interesting piece in the Atlantic about how climate change is driving inflation. I hadn't appreciated that part of the chip shortage problem is due to drought in Taiwan, and interesting points on US lumber prices and housing starts.
For £40 per year, The Atlantic does some great writing.
Excellent article. I let my subscription lapse before Christmas because the election was over but it is simply the best western periodical at the moment. Vastly superior to the Economist, for example.
The Atlantic and the New Yorker seem to be doing some really excellent stuff these days - well researched, with lots of depth, especially on the reason why things happen. Not just other-side-bad stuff.
Meanwhile, entirely predictably the Ukrainian Gov't are fed up with the US and UK pumping out bellicose rhetoric and winding up Russia. The Russians obviously don't have anything like sufficient troop numbers to launch a full scale invasion.
The whole thing is wildly exaggerated.
Anyone would think Boris Johnson was trying to deflect attention away from something ...
Unsurprisingly the article doesn't say what you claim at all. More importantly neither do the Ukrainians. Yes there are differences of opinion as to the timing but the article makes clear the Ukrainians believe an incursion is going to happen.
Ah but, see, you have just entirely altered my words.
You wrote: "the Ukrainians believe an incursion is going to happen."
I wrote: "the Russians obviously don't have anything like sufficient troop numbers to launch a full scale invasion"
Do you see the massive difference? If you don't, let me help you:
Incursion vs Full-scale invasion
The Russians have been in and around the Ukrainian border, with various incursions and skirmishes for EIGHT years. Yes this one is a bit more ramped but there is wild, wild, exaggeration and rhetoric going on from people who have little understanding of the region, very little knowledge of the military, and a large dose of gullibility.
No wonder the Ukrainian Gov't are getting cheesed off.
Don't you think the Ukrainian government are rather more cheesed off with the Russian government, who have - as you say - for the last eight years been invading (not 'incursions') Ukrainian territory?
This is pure and simply Russian aggression. Russia are the ones threatening war, not us.
Are interest rates definitely going up again? I can hardly afford to pay my mortgage already ffs
Yes and they’re pushing on a piece of string. Less than 10% of households are on a variable mortgage and the inflationary pressures are largely due to global supply constraints.
Interesting piece in the Atlantic about how climate change is driving inflation. I hadn't appreciated that part of the chip shortage problem is due to drought in Taiwan, and interesting points on US lumber prices and housing starts.
For £40 per year, The Atlantic does some great writing.
Excellent article. I let my subscription lapse before Christmas because the election was over but it is simply the best western periodical at the moment. Vastly superior to the Economist, for example.
The Atlantic and the New Yorker seem to be doing some really excellent stuff these days - well researched, with lots of depth, especially on the reason why things happen. Not just other-side-bad stuff.
Never really read either, just the occasional article highlighted on her. Do they each have a political leaning?
I am really struggling to see how changing CT is going to help with increased gas prices. Those most at risk of fuel poverty are those on benefits who already don't pay CT. Is he going to boost UC at the same time? The removal of the Covid uplift in UC looks ever more problematic.
In my view there is a limit to what government can do but using the flexibility we gained by at least suspending VAT on fuel bills is surely a more direct option (as well as reducing the impact on inflation). Of course it is only 5% and bills are going to rise a lot more than that but it shows the government is doing what it can. At the moment the government is going to take a windfall from the increased prices because that 5% will be on a considerably larger sum. Cutting or suspending the 5% also means that Scotland, Wales and NI are not dependent upon what cash strapped devolved administrations do with the money.
EU suggests No 10 may need to override Stormont & order resumption of Protocol checks: 'The Commission will closely monitor developments pursuant to this announcement. It recalls the responsibility of UK Govt for the respect of the international obligations it has entered into.' https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1489161252710539268
Meanwhile, entirely predictably the Ukrainian Gov't are fed up with the US and UK pumping out bellicose rhetoric and winding up Russia. The Russians obviously don't have anything like sufficient troop numbers to launch a full scale invasion.
The whole thing is wildly exaggerated.
Anyone would think Boris Johnson was trying to deflect attention away from something ...
Unsurprisingly the article doesn't say what you claim at all. More importantly neither do the Ukrainians. Yes there are differences of opinion as to the timing but the article makes clear the Ukrainians believe an incursion is going to happen.
Ah but, see, you have just entirely altered my words.
You wrote: "the Ukrainians believe an incursion is going to happen."
I wrote: "the Russians obviously don't have anything like sufficient troop numbers to launch a full scale invasion"
Do you see the massive difference? If you don't, let me help you:
Incursion vs Full-scale invasion
The Russians have been in and around the Ukrainian border, with various incursions and skirmishes for EIGHT years. Yes this one is a bit more ramped but there is wild, wild, exaggeration and rhetoric going on from people who have little understanding of the region, very little knowledge of the military, and a large dose of gullibility.
No wonder the Ukrainian Gov't are getting cheesed off.
So what you are actually doing is setting up a straw man and using that to justify ignoring the legitimate concerns of Ukraine, other countries in Western Europe and NATO. That is both very obvious and sad. Pretty shameful from you.
You're just spoiling for a fight Richard, both with me and on the Ukrainian border. I shall not engage further, except to echo what the Ukrainian Gov't are saying.
There won't be a full scale invasion of Ukraine.
It's good to respond quietly and diplomatically, to shore up support via NATO but the last thing Ukraine needs or wants is Joe Biden and Boris Johnson ramping up the rhetoric when they have very little understanding of the region, no understanding of the military and are doing so for personal political gain.
I think the problem is that people over here and on here sometimes get bored and have little better to do than get into fights about non-existent issues or, even worse, post about their hotel room whilst on a faraway vacation.
There won't be a full scale invasion of Ukraine. Have a nice day.
Are interest rates definitely going up again? I can hardly afford to pay my mortgage already ffs
Are you fixed for a bit or on purely variable ?
Variable, but I was trying to scrape through these years until my affordability improved. House was purchased with an ex and the upheaval of selling it and renting/buying elsewhere just for a few years was not worth the hassle.
I am currently in the process of trying to fix it for a few years with a mortgage guaranteed by my Dad but the solicitor’s have been worse than useless and are now ignoring me and the offer expires today! Can you believe it!
Conveyancing solicitors can be worse than useless and appallingly slow. A remortgage is almost literally a box ticking exercise for them too. I assume you couldn't go in house with the bank due to the fact your Dad doesn't live with you.
I'm trying to buy a house for a vulnerable relative at the moment and even though the price is agreed and the equity release mortgage is there, I'm totally stymied by the fact that the solicitor is "unavailable for the forseeable future" (illness, I suppose). The practice (which has pocketed £3000 in advance for the charges) has passed the case to another solicitor who is "busy with my own cases but will get to yours in due course". The seller is understandably fed up and thinking of putting the house back on the market, and says he definitely will if I start again with another solicitor. I have no idea what to do - can one complain to the Law Society about delays, even when they may have a perfectly understandable cause like sickness?
Are interest rates definitely going up again? I can hardly afford to pay my mortgage already ffs
My mortgage rate was 15% when I bought my house in 1989. Kids today ...
If you're on a shoestring, as many are, this isn't overly funny. We know it was grim at times but thing are also very tight for many households right now.
Former government adviser: “All these ambitions speak to different systems and chains of command, made ever more tricky by the fact the centralizing force [Johnson] doesn’t know the detail and just wants the ‘Gover’ to ‘fix it.’” https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1489162330931871748
Meanwhile, entirely predictably the Ukrainian Gov't are fed up with the US and UK pumping out bellicose rhetoric and winding up Russia. The Russians obviously don't have anything like sufficient troop numbers to launch a full scale invasion.
The whole thing is wildly exaggerated.
Anyone would think Boris Johnson was trying to deflect attention away from something ...
Unsurprisingly the article doesn't say what you claim at all. More importantly neither do the Ukrainians. Yes there are differences of opinion as to the timing but the article makes clear the Ukrainians believe an incursion is going to happen.
Interesting fact: the Conservatives in Canada have won the popular vote in 5 of the last 6 elections going back to 2006. The exception was 2015 when J Trudeau was first elected.
Interesting fact - the above fact has nothing whatsoever to do with the changing view of Trudeau on altering the voting system. None at all. Total coincidence.
Meanwhile, entirely predictably the Ukrainian Gov't are fed up with the US and UK pumping out bellicose rhetoric and winding up Russia. The Russians obviously don't have anything like sufficient troop numbers to launch a full scale invasion.
The whole thing is wildly exaggerated.
Anyone would think Boris Johnson was trying to deflect attention away from something ...
Unsurprisingly the article doesn't say what you claim at all. More importantly neither do the Ukrainians. Yes there are differences of opinion as to the timing but the article makes clear the Ukrainians believe an incursion is going to happen.
Ah but, see, you have just entirely altered my words.
You wrote: "the Ukrainians believe an incursion is going to happen."
I wrote: "the Russians obviously don't have anything like sufficient troop numbers to launch a full scale invasion"
Do you see the massive difference? If you don't, let me help you:
Incursion vs Full-scale invasion
The Russians have been in and around the Ukrainian border, with various incursions and skirmishes for EIGHT years. Yes this one is a bit more ramped but there is wild, wild, exaggeration and rhetoric going on from people who have little understanding of the region, very little knowledge of the military, and a large dose of gullibility.
No wonder the Ukrainian Gov't are getting cheesed off.
So what you are actually doing is setting up a straw man and using that to justify ignoring the legitimate concerns of Ukraine, other countries in Western Europe and NATO. That is both very obvious and sad. Pretty shameful from you.
You're just spoiling for a fight Richard, both with me and on the Ukrainian border. I shall not engage further, except to echo what the Ukrainian Gov't are saying.
There won't be a full scale invasion of Ukraine.
It's good to respond quietly and diplomatically, to shore up support via NATO but the last thing Ukraine needs or wants is Joe Biden and Boris Johnson ramping up the rhetoric when they have very little understanding of the region, no understanding of the military and are doing so for personal political gain.
I think the problem is that people over here and on here sometimes get bored and have little better to do than get into fights about non-existent issues or, even worse, post about their hotel room whilst on a faraway vacation.
There won't be a full scale invasion of Ukraine. Have a nice day.
I would suggest you have been spoiling for a fight and trying to downplay Putin's aggression
China have asked Putin this morning not to launch an attack while the winter olympics are taking place and of course you do not have to live in daily fear of Putin's aggression as do the peoples of Ukraine
Last night Nick Palmer pointed out that the link in the thread header to Alaistair Meeks' thorough analysis wasn't working, and it still isn't, so here's the link again:
It shows the likely position of every Conservative MP. There almost as many (91) who Alistair has put in the "hostile" or "icy" camp (icy being defined as those who would now find it incredibly difficult not to move against Johnson) as there are in the "friendly" camp (98), the other positions being "cool", "neutral" and "unknown". It's very difficult not to see a move against Johnson happening given those numbers.
When a govt minister puts out a 32 second video, and exhorts us to listen to the "entirety" of the message, it really does confirm that they think the public are idiots with close to zero attention span. Sadly judging by voter behaviour they have reached the correct conclusion!
One thing to thank Johnson for is that for the first time in several years Labour look like a serious force again. Starmer is a changed man. It's a long time since an opposition leader has held the House's attention like he's done in his last three appearances and watching the clip of Lisa Nandy eviscerating Michael Gove is something to behold.
Just having a handful of shadow cabinet ministers who are both identifiable and not obviously incompetent is a vast improvement - and the latter point beginning to be an advantage over the Tories.
Are interest rates definitely going up again? I can hardly afford to pay my mortgage already ffs
Are you fixed for a bit or on purely variable ?
Variable, but I was trying to scrape through these years until my affordability improved. House was purchased with an ex and the upheaval of selling it and renting/buying elsewhere just for a few years was not worth the hassle.
I am currently in the process of trying to fix it for a few years with a mortgage guaranteed by my Dad but the solicitor’s have been worse than useless and are now ignoring me and the offer expires today! Can you believe it!
Conveyancing solicitors can be worse than useless and appallingly slow. A remortgage is almost literally a box ticking exercise for them too. I assume you couldn't go in house with the bank due to the fact your Dad doesn't live with you.
I'm trying to buy a house for a vulnerable relative at the moment and even though the price is agreed and the equity release mortgage is there, I'm totally stymied by the fact that the solicitor is "unavailable for the forseeable future" (illness, I suppose). The practice (which has pocketed £3000 in advance for the charges) has passed the case to another solicitor who is "busy with my own cases but will get to yours in due course". The seller is understandably fed up and thinking of putting the house back on the market, and says he definitely will if I start again with another solicitor. I have no idea what to do - can one complain to the Law Society about delays, even when they may have a perfectly understandable cause like sickness?
Finding a good lawyers seems as hard as finding an accountant who can add.
I recall spending an afternoon proof reading the conveyancing on a home purchase. Given it was all boiler plate, copy and pasta, the number of errors made was impressive. After finding the 3rd mistake, I binned the lawyer.
(Would this mean Cardiff/Edinburgh/Belfast receiving a wodge of money and then up to them what they do with it?)
Don't be stupid
Council tax will be going up significantly in Scotland as the Holyrood Govt screwed the councils at its budget by cutting their financial settlement. Kate Forbes found a bit of extra cash after every council (incl SNP-led ones TBF) complained bitterly but the end result is still a real-time cut.
Last night Nick Palmer pointed out that the link in the thread header to Alaistair Meeks' thorough analysis wasn't working, and it still isn't, so here's the link again:
It shows the likely position of every Conservative MP. There almost as many (91) who Alistair has put in the "hostile" or "icy" camp (icy being defined as those who would now find it incredibly difficult not to move against Johnson) as there are in the "friendly" camp (98), the other positions being "cool", "neutral" and "unknown". It's very difficult not to see a move against Johnson happening given those numbers.
Also, anti can be taken at face value, whereas pro may be lying
The only question is now will he lose with the dignity of Donald Trump?
I had dinner last night with a senior Tory.
View was that Boris is toast. The 54 will happen, possibly after the Met report, and his support will collapse at that point. Very few friends in the parliamentary party. But he will fight not resign
I just don’t see 54 letters. If after Mondays performance you haven’t sent a letter in what trigger is actually going to make you do so..
After the Met report where they decide it’s all old news and quietly don’t do anything?
The report could be what some are waiting for, but the thing is we've already heard about a lot of what happened so as you suggest they might think theres nothing 'new' and so no justification to act.
Which would be a mistake, confirmation of much would be enough.
Are interest rates definitely going up again? I can hardly afford to pay my mortgage already ffs
My mortgage rate was 15% when I bought my house in 1989. Kids today ...
If you're on a shoestring, as many are, this isn't overly funny. We know it was grim at times but thing are also very tight for many households right now.
But still Big G North Wales liked it, so hey ...
I liked it because it puts it into context
I lived through those days and a 0.25% increase in a mortgage today is not comparable with those paying 15%
"Lobby shd get reading all Simon Walters' hits cos we're shortly returning to illegal donations to secretly buy the PM/Tory leader + the Cabinet Office/Geidt coverups, deserving of a separate police investigation #RegimeChange"
Are interest rates definitely going up again? I can hardly afford to pay my mortgage already ffs
Are you fixed for a bit or on purely variable ?
Variable, but I was trying to scrape through these years until my affordability improved. House was purchased with an ex and the upheaval of selling it and renting/buying elsewhere just for a few years was not worth the hassle.
I am currently in the process of trying to fix it for a few years with a mortgage guaranteed by my Dad but the solicitor’s have been worse than useless and are now ignoring me and the offer expires today! Can you believe it!
Conveyancing solicitors can be worse than useless and appallingly slow. A remortgage is almost literally a box ticking exercise for them too. I assume you couldn't go in house with the bank due to the fact your Dad doesn't live with you.
I'm trying to buy a house for a vulnerable relative at the moment and even though the price is agreed and the equity release mortgage is there, I'm totally stymied by the fact that the solicitor is "unavailable for the forseeable future" (illness, I suppose). The practice (which has pocketed £3000 in advance for the charges) has passed the case to another solicitor who is "busy with my own cases but will get to yours in due course". The seller is understandably fed up and thinking of putting the house back on the market, and says he definitely will if I start again with another solicitor. I have no idea what to do - can one complain to the Law Society about delays, even when they may have a perfectly understandable cause like sickness?
Certainly solicitor no 2 should not be accepting instructions he doesn't have time to deal with.
I am really struggling to see how changing CT is going to help with increased gas prices. Those most at risk of fuel poverty are those on benefits who already don't pay CT. Is he going to boost UC at the same time? The removal of the Covid uplift in UC looks ever more problematic....
While that's true, the number of household spending over 10% of their income on fuel costs is predicted to rise from 2m to 6m. The aim is more to shore up their vote than to help the hardest hit, I think.
If they wanted to make a direct difference to bills, they could also look at suspending the green levy. But the chancellor would likely veto that.
Meanwhile, entirely predictably the Ukrainian Gov't are fed up with the US and UK pumping out bellicose rhetoric and winding up Russia. The Russians obviously don't have anything like sufficient troop numbers to launch a full scale invasion.
The whole thing is wildly exaggerated.
Anyone would think Boris Johnson was trying to deflect attention away from something ...
Unsurprisingly the article doesn't say what you claim at all. More importantly neither do the Ukrainians. Yes there are differences of opinion as to the timing but the article makes clear the Ukrainians believe an incursion is going to happen.
The Russian troop deployments are literally visible from space. Plenty of commercial imagery showing them.
I know Putin likes the they-were-just-on-holiday excuse for his military turning up in various places, but 100K+ ??
The problem for the Ukraine is that being in imminent threat of a fairly large scale invasion is having an enormously chilling effect on their economy. Who is going to invest with such a level of uncertainty? How many of your most skilled workers are looking for international visas? How much of your workforce is going to be called up as reservists?
Russia is thus destabilising and weakening the country without actually fighting and Ukraine is really not sure how to respond to this. Whilst western armaments are potentially very useful their very receipt builds the uncertainty. The solution I think that the Ukraine wants is more western guarantees of its sovereignty and territorial integrity so it can get back to business but this has not really been forthcoming. They are caught in a cleft stick.
The key threshold is not 15% to trigger a vote, but 50%+1 to vote Johnson out.
Once you have 15% you have to think ahead to convincing the next 35%+1. If you simply trigger the vote then you only have 1 day to win people round. Chances are you will lose.
If you spend a week or two, gradually having people publish their letters and talk about why Johnson has to go, you have much more opportunity to convince other MPs to vote Johnson out in the confidence ballot when it is triggered.
No point holding a confidence vote only for Johnson to win it.
Last night Nick Palmer pointed out that the link in the thread header to Alaistair Meeks' thorough analysis wasn't working, and it still isn't, so here's the link again:
It shows the likely position of every Conservative MP. There almost as many (91) who Alistair has put in the "hostile" or "icy" camp (icy being defined as those who would now find it incredibly difficult not to move against Johnson) as there are in the "friendly" camp (98), the other positions being "cool", "neutral" and "unknown". It's very difficult not to see a move against Johnson happening given those numbers.
Needs a further classification of vertebrate/invertebrate, though.
For those who have asked, my view remains that sooner or later, but not too much later, the 54 letter threshold will be reached. If it is, the PM is going to need an excellent operation to win a vote of no confidence. 9:06 AM · Feb 3, 2022·Twitter for iPad Tweet your reply Alastair Meeks @AlastairMeeks · 6m Replying to @AlastairMeeks So far, the PM’s operation has been poor, making verifiably impossible claims about possible tactics, hubristically claiming momentum at natural pause points and alienating doubtful MPs.
Are interest rates definitely going up again? I can hardly afford to pay my mortgage already ffs
Are you fixed for a bit or on purely variable ?
Variable, but I was trying to scrape through these years until my affordability improved. House was purchased with an ex and the upheaval of selling it and renting/buying elsewhere just for a few years was not worth the hassle.
I am currently in the process of trying to fix it for a few years with a mortgage guaranteed by my Dad but the solicitor’s have been worse than useless and are now ignoring me and the offer expires today! Can you believe it!
Conveyancing solicitors can be worse than useless and appallingly slow. A remortgage is almost literally a box ticking exercise for them too. I assume you couldn't go in house with the bank due to the fact your Dad doesn't live with you.
I'm trying to buy a house for a vulnerable relative at the moment and even though the price is agreed and the equity release mortgage is there, I'm totally stymied by the fact that the solicitor is "unavailable for the forseeable future" (illness, I suppose). The practice (which has pocketed £3000 in advance for the charges) has passed the case to another solicitor who is "busy with my own cases but will get to yours in due course". The seller is understandably fed up and thinking of putting the house back on the market, and says he definitely will if I start again with another solicitor. I have no idea what to do - can one complain to the Law Society about delays, even when they may have a perfectly understandable cause like sickness?
Finding a good lawyers seems as hard as finding an accountant who can add.
I recall spending an afternoon proof reading the conveyancing on a home purchase. Given it was all boiler plate, copy and pasta....
The only question is now will he lose with the dignity of Donald Trump?
I had dinner last night with a senior Tory.
View was that Boris is toast. The 54 will happen, possibly after the Met report, and his support will collapse at that point. Very few friends in the parliamentary party. But he will fight not resign
I just don’t see 54 letters. If after Mondays performance you haven’t sent a letter in what trigger is actually going to make you do so..
After the Met report where they decide it’s all old news and quietly don’t do anything?
The report could be what some are waiting for, but the thing is we've already heard about a lot of what happened so as you suggest they might think theres nothing 'new' and so no justification to act.
Which would be a mistake, confirmation of much would be enough.
The report is different from
- Statements in the newspapers. - Statements from Dom
in that it was compiled from actual source evidence.
Last night Nick Palmer pointed out that the link in the thread header to Alaistair Meeks' thorough analysis wasn't working, and it still isn't, so here's the link again:
It shows the likely position of every Conservative MP. There almost as many (91) who Alistair has put in the "hostile" or "icy" camp (icy being defined as those who would now find it incredibly difficult not to move against Johnson) as there are in the "friendly" camp (98), the other positions being "cool", "neutral" and "unknown". It's very difficult not to see a move against Johnson happening given those numbers.
It's a good resource but as he would accept his listings can be quibbled. My MP is listed as cool based off a rather general comment but hes an uber loyalist non rebel, so I'd not buy that. However as has been noted for a long time he didn't have massive parliamentary support in 2016, and chucked out of the contest then as a result. That only changed once they were desperate.
Meanwhile, entirely predictably the Ukrainian Gov't are fed up with the US and UK pumping out bellicose rhetoric and winding up Russia. The Russians obviously don't have anything like sufficient troop numbers to launch a full scale invasion.
The whole thing is wildly exaggerated.
Anyone would think Boris Johnson was trying to deflect attention away from something ...
Unsurprisingly the article doesn't say what you claim at all. More importantly neither do the Ukrainians. Yes there are differences of opinion as to the timing but the article makes clear the Ukrainians believe an incursion is going to happen.
The Russian troop deployments are literally visible from space. Plenty of commercial imagery showing them.
I know Putin likes the they-were-just-on-holiday excuse for his military turning up in various places, but 100K+ ??
Random military exercise, it's just a coincidence it's on the border. Russia is such a small place you can hardly avoid bumping into or over a border now and then.
I am really struggling to see how changing CT is going to help with increased gas prices. Those most at risk of fuel poverty are those on benefits who already don't pay CT. Is he going to boost UC at the same time? The removal of the Covid uplift in UC looks ever more problematic....
While that's true, the number of household spending over 10% of their income on fuel costs is predicted to rise from 2m to 6m. The aim is more to shore up their vote than to help the hardest hit, I think.
If they wanted to make a direct difference to bills, they could also look at suspending the green levy. But the chancellor would likely veto that.
Indeed. The Atlantic article is quite timely on all this too. The massive reduction in capital investment in oil and gas (driven by "green" investement policies which are very in right now) means that the increase in prices is not stimulating additional production to the extent that it should. The pension fund I am one of the trustees of are getting a lot of information about this just now and some of the trustees are very keen to show their green credentials but not investing in Oil and gas. I am personally far from sure that this policy has been properly thought through.
The only question is now will he lose with the dignity of Donald Trump?
I had dinner last night with a senior Tory.
View was that Boris is toast. The 54 will happen, possibly after the Met report, and his support will collapse at that point. Very few friends in the parliamentary party. But he will fight not resign
When he's on the backbenches he's going to be a complete pain in the dick for his successor. The havoc he is going wreak on the party out of spite has to be a factor in the tory MPs' calculations.
You really think he'll stay on the backbenches? In the event of a VONC I expect him to flounce off and wander up and down the country being a total PITA with increasing irresponsible speeches.
He can get his £75k Parliamentary pin money plus expenses to supplement the well paid day (and evening job).
The key threshold is not 15% to trigger a vote, but 50%+1 to vote Johnson out.
Once you have 15% you have to think ahead to convincing the next 35%+1. If you simply trigger the vote then you only have 1 day to win people round. Chances are you will lose.
If you spend a week or two, gradually having people publish their letters and talk about why Johnson has to go, you have much more opportunity to convince other MPs to vote Johnson out in the confidence ballot when it is triggered.
No point holding a confidence vote only for Johnson to win it.
And, AIUI, he's not likely to be forgiving to those who voted against him.
The only question is now will he lose with the dignity of Donald Trump?
I had dinner last night with a senior Tory.
View was that Boris is toast. The 54 will happen, possibly after the Met report, and his support will collapse at that point. Very few friends in the parliamentary party. But he will fight not resign
I just don’t see 54 letters. If after Mondays performance you haven’t sent a letter in what trigger is actually going to make you do so..
After the Met report where they decide it’s all old news and quietly don’t do anything?
The report could be what some are waiting for, but the thing is we've already heard about a lot of what happened so as you suggest they might think theres nothing 'new' and so no justification to act.
Which would be a mistake, confirmation of much would be enough.
The report is different from
- Statements in the newspapers. - Statements from Dom
in that it was compiled from actual source evidence.
We hope.
The Met don't report though, they either issue FPNs or not
What nobody realises is that if Boris is FPNed he deliberately won't pay. Then they have to wait 28 days and prosecute for non payment. The courts are congested as fuck anyway, his QC asks for 3 weeks to be set aside for trial, and that buys him the right to say We must not prejudice the ongoing proceedings, till about 2032
Innumerate Nick Robinson this morning asked James Cleverly;
"Do you with agree with your boss that Keir Starmer is to blame for Jimmy Savile's crimes?"
I think that Johnson bringing up Savile was wrong, but he never said anything even remotely close to that.
What he said was designed to cause that kind of connection in people's head. He wanted the names Starmer and Saville to go together, with confusion over the precise allegation, which most people wont see, inevitable.
Meanwhile, entirely predictably the Ukrainian Gov't are fed up with the US and UK pumping out bellicose rhetoric and winding up Russia. The Russians obviously don't have anything like sufficient troop numbers to launch a full scale invasion.
The whole thing is wildly exaggerated.
Anyone would think Boris Johnson was trying to deflect attention away from something ...
Unsurprisingly the article doesn't say what you claim at all. More importantly neither do the Ukrainians. Yes there are differences of opinion as to the timing but the article makes clear the Ukrainians believe an incursion is going to happen.
The Russian troop deployments are literally visible from space. Plenty of commercial imagery showing them.
I know Putin likes the they-were-just-on-holiday excuse for his military turning up in various places, but 100K+ ??
Random military exercise, it's just a coincidence it's on the border. Russia is such a small place you can hardly avoid bumping into or over a border now and then.
Shopping trip - "Does my bum look big in this T-90?"
Last night Nick Palmer pointed out that the link in the thread header to Alaistair Meeks' thorough analysis wasn't working, and it still isn't, so here's the link again:
It shows the likely position of every Conservative MP. There almost as many (91) who Alistair has put in the "hostile" or "icy" camp (icy being defined as those who would now find it incredibly difficult not to move against Johnson) as there are in the "friendly" camp (98), the other positions being "cool", "neutral" and "unknown". It's very difficult not to see a move against Johnson happening given those numbers.
Needs a further classification of vertebrate/invertebrate, though.
An icy invertebrate is little good to anyone.
When the VONC happens, they'll have to decide one way or the other...
The only question is now will he lose with the dignity of Donald Trump?
I had dinner last night with a senior Tory.
View was that Boris is toast. The 54 will happen, possibly after the Met report, and his support will collapse at that point. Very few friends in the parliamentary party. But he will fight not resign
I just don’t see 54 letters. If after Mondays performance you haven’t sent a letter in what trigger is actually going to make you do so..
After the Met report where they decide it’s all old news and quietly don’t do anything?
The report could be what some are waiting for, but the thing is we've already heard about a lot of what happened so as you suggest they might think theres nothing 'new' and so no justification to act.
Which would be a mistake, confirmation of much would be enough.
The report is different from
- Statements in the newspapers. - Statements from Dom
in that it was compiled from actual source evidence.
We hope.
The Met don't report though, they either issue FPNs or not
What nobody realises is that if Boris is FPNed he deliberately won't pay. Then they have to wait 28 days and prosecute for non payment. The courts are congested as fuck anyway, his QC asks for 3 weeks to be set aside for trial, and that buys him the right to say We must not prejudice the ongoing proceedings, till about 2032
Are interest rates definitely going up again? I can hardly afford to pay my mortgage already ffs
Are you fixed for a bit or on purely variable ?
Variable, but I was trying to scrape through these years until my affordability improved. House was purchased with an ex and the upheaval of selling it and renting/buying elsewhere just for a few years was not worth the hassle.
I am currently in the process of trying to fix it for a few years with a mortgage guaranteed by my Dad but the solicitor’s have been worse than useless and are now ignoring me and the offer expires today! Can you believe it!
Conveyancing solicitors can be worse than useless and appallingly slow. A remortgage is almost literally a box ticking exercise for them too. I assume you couldn't go in house with the bank due to the fact your Dad doesn't live with you.
I'm trying to buy a house for a vulnerable relative at the moment and even though the price is agreed and the equity release mortgage is there, I'm totally stymied by the fact that the solicitor is "unavailable for the forseeable future" (illness, I suppose). The practice (which has pocketed £3000 in advance for the charges) has passed the case to another solicitor who is "busy with my own cases but will get to yours in due course". The seller is understandably fed up and thinking of putting the house back on the market, and says he definitely will if I start again with another solicitor. I have no idea what to do - can one complain to the Law Society about delays, even when they may have a perfectly understandable cause like sickness?
Finding a good lawyers seems as hard as finding an accountant who can add.
I recall spending an afternoon proof reading the conveyancing on a home purchase. Given it was all boiler plate, copy and pasta....
"The Swedish government announced plans to remove the majority of restrictions against Covid-19 on February 9th in a press conference on Thursday morning.
Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, Health Minister Lena Hallengren and Director General of the Public Health Agency, Karin Tegmark Wisell, announced that almost all restrictions will be removed on February 9th, and that those working from home should prepare to return to work."
I've got a lot of time for Brandon but this is a remarkable line to take - whether the UK abides by its international legal commitments is a matter for the Northern Ireland Executive??? I suspect the Scottish government will be quoting that back to the UK government at some point.....
I think the legal advice that @edwinpootsmla received needs to be made public. If it really is the case that devolved ministers aren't required to honour the UK's international commitments, can we all agree that the law should be changed to ensure they are?
Barwell tweeting rubbish there. If it was down to him we would still be in the EU. He and Theresa failed to get Brexit done and failed to beat Corbyn sad to say. Only Boris did.
Any Conservative and Unionist should warmly welcome Poots and the DUP's decision to remove the Irish border as I do. The EU always showed contempt for NI Unionists in the Brexit talks and they should not be surprised the DUP have responded at last.
Well done Brandon Lewis and Boris and Truss for backing the DUP on this and throwing out the Irish Sea border!
The GFA requires Unionist and Nationalist consent. The future of the Union with Scotland however is reserved to Westminster under the Scotland Act 1998
The only question is now will he lose with the dignity of Donald Trump?
I had dinner last night with a senior Tory.
View was that Boris is toast. The 54 will happen, possibly after the Met report, and his support will collapse at that point. Very few friends in the parliamentary party. But he will fight not resign
They really do fear him.
It is a fear of 'The Talent'. I've seen it many times with managers or agents who will go to any lengths for those they consider to have that special something they don't understand. That X ingredient that has to be indulged.
As my mother said: "Ognuno e utile. Nessuno e indispensabile."
Comments
What other country has all their state pensions paid by a neighbouring country?
The true believers will believe it, so that they don't have to worry about the problems with Independence, but those uncertain in the middle - not a chance.
Public Service Broadcasting - Eek twin A stole my ticket but I'll see then in Belfast later this year.
We aren't naming the murderer but check the ages we have liberally sprinkled within the paragraph.
It may be bad for recent buyers of houses of any age, but increasing interest rates is better economically for the young as a whole than it is for the old as a whole.
Politically it will be a disaster so govts will put it off as long as they possibly can, but at some point we will need to get back to "normal", whether that starts now or in 10 years no-one knows.
https://twitter.com/BenPBradshaw/status/1489133080573280256?s=20&t=gUakSCLCKEaQqXMfjr3xBQ
Not sure that‘s the message HMG wants to send.
https://twitter.com/hhesterm/status/1489141703135145987
https://www.mixcloud.com/radiowinchcombe/night-train-with-martha-richler-marf-thursday-19-november-2020/
https://twitter.com/Simon4NDorset/status/1489144727706476545
Rishi v Rachel in the HOC and then his press conference is an opportunity for him to convince his mps to act now
If nothing else the dual in the HOC later this morning will be very interesting
It's not exactly a flood though is it?
The Times have it as a headline. The Mail are now leading with it.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10469891/After-Pork-Pie-Plot-Cream-Tea-Coup-Downing-Street-fears-new-plan-oust-Boris-Johnson.html
The whole thing is wildly exaggerated.
Anyone would think Boris Johnson was trying to deflect attention away from something ...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/02/ukraine-western-talk-of-imminent-attack-putin
I expect a vonc very soon, maybe as early as next week
https://twitter.com/GavinBarwell/status/1489152721785659392
https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1488964725572612098
I have a tory friend who votes for him because he's so good.
It has also been revealed that trade minister Penny Mordaunt blasted the 'stupidity' of the current leadership in a letter to a constituent, in one of the most senior members of the government to hit out at Mr Johnson."
I think there's dots to be joined there. Stupidity is strong language.
I shall use this henceforth
It concluded that the practicalities of Scottish independence had been made even more complex by Brexit, particularly when it came to managing borders.
And it said it was “vital” that any future prospectus or White Paper on independence from the Scottish Government addressed exactly how it would approach the border issue.
https://inews.co.uk/news/scotland/scottish-independence-rejoining-eu-would-lead-to-checkpoints-on-border-with-england-1439134
You wrote: "the Ukrainians believe an incursion is going to happen."
I wrote: "the Russians obviously don't have anything like sufficient troop numbers to launch a full scale invasion"
Do you see the massive difference? If you don't, let me help you:
Incursion vs Full-scale invasion
The Russians have been in and around the Ukrainian border, with various incursions and skirmishes for EIGHT years. Yes this one is a bit more ramped but there is wild, wild, exaggeration and rhetoric going on from people who have little understanding of the region, very little knowledge of the military, and a large dose of gullibility.
No wonder the Ukrainian Gov't are getting cheesed off.
I think the legal advice that @edwinpootsmla received needs to be made public. If it really is the case that devolved ministers aren't required to honour the UK's international commitments, can we all agree that the law should be changed to ensure they are?
https://twitter.com/GavinBarwell/status/1489152721785659392?s=20&t=eGUeRvVYIzcHj2P1uJ1aQA
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1488926863582023682?s=20&t=2wWsem3IbGb3V63I2Ml4lg
Question: can the full report be released before the Met office complete their investigation? Parliament is sovereign, I guess...
Ukraine and its people waving the union jack in gratitude for our help while the President of Ukraine is disgusted with Germany
Furthermore the Baltic states are grateful for UK support
I know Putin likes the they-were-just-on-holiday excuse for his military turning up in various places, but 100K+ ??
Edit : Oh and it was the Ukrainians themselves who complained about the US downplaying Russian activity as minor incursions.
This is pure and simply Russian aggression. Russia are the ones threatening war, not us.
In my view there is a limit to what government can do but using the flexibility we gained by at least suspending VAT on fuel bills is surely a more direct option (as well as reducing the impact on inflation). Of course it is only 5% and bills are going to rise a lot more than that but it shows the government is doing what it can. At the moment the government is going to take a windfall from the increased prices because that 5% will be on a considerably larger sum. Cutting or suspending the 5% also means that Scotland, Wales and NI are not dependent upon what cash strapped devolved administrations do with the money.
https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1489161252710539268
There won't be a full scale invasion of Ukraine.
It's good to respond quietly and diplomatically, to shore up support via NATO but the last thing Ukraine needs or wants is Joe Biden and Boris Johnson ramping up the rhetoric when they have very little understanding of the region, no understanding of the military and are doing so for personal political gain.
I think the problem is that people over here and on here sometimes get bored and have little better to do than get into fights about non-existent issues or, even worse, post about their hotel room whilst on a faraway vacation.
There won't be a full scale invasion of Ukraine. Have a nice day.
At the moment, I think it is a kind of disbelief, plus the "80 seat majority at the election" that is holding things together for BJ. Just.
Evidence, @Farooq ?
Daily Mirror: No one in Downing Street calls Johnson "Big Dog".
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/nobody-calls-boris-johnson-big-25954429
I thought it was perhaps them who had made it up, as they love anything doing down BJ whether true or fabricated.
But still Big G North Wales liked it, so hey ...
On the serious stuff - and the plot holes - in the white paper: https://www.politico.eu/article/boris-johnson-leveling-up-partygate-redemption/
Former government adviser: “All these ambitions speak to different systems and chains of command, made ever more tricky by the fact the centralizing force [Johnson] doesn’t know the detail and just wants the ‘Gover’ to ‘fix it.’”
https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1489162330931871748
China have asked Putin this morning not to launch an attack while the winter olympics are taking place and of course you do not have to live in daily fear of Putin's aggression as do the peoples of Ukraine
https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/every-conservative-mps-position-on-boris-johnson-and-the-parties-in-number-10-bc4f5f77032f
It shows the likely position of every Conservative MP. There almost as many (91) who Alistair has put in the "hostile" or "icy" camp (icy being defined as those who would now find it incredibly difficult not to move against Johnson) as there are in the "friendly" camp (98), the other positions being "cool", "neutral" and "unknown". It's very difficult not to see a move against Johnson happening given those numbers.
I recall spending an afternoon proof reading the conveyancing on a home purchase. Given it was all boiler plate, copy and pasta, the number of errors made was impressive. After finding the 3rd mistake, I binned the lawyer.
Signed
A nervous bettor on an early vonc
Which would be a mistake, confirmation of much would be enough.
"Do you with agree with your boss that Keir Starmer is to blame for Jimmy Savile's crimes?"
I think that Johnson bringing up Savile was wrong, but he never said anything even remotely close to that.
I lived through those days and a 0.25% increase in a mortgage today is not comparable with those paying 15%
"Lobby shd get reading all Simon Walters' hits cos we're shortly returning to illegal donations to secretly buy the PM/Tory leader + the Cabinet Office/Geidt coverups, deserving of a separate police investigation #RegimeChange"
Sounds ominous.
If they wanted to make a direct difference to bills, they could also look at suspending the green levy. But the chancellor would likely veto that.
Russia is thus destabilising and weakening the country without actually fighting and Ukraine is really not sure how to respond to this. Whilst western armaments are potentially very useful their very receipt builds the uncertainty. The solution I think that the Ukraine wants is more western guarantees of its sovereignty and territorial integrity so it can get back to business but this has not really been forthcoming. They are caught in a cleft stick.
Once you have 15% you have to think ahead to convincing the next 35%+1. If you simply trigger the vote then you only have 1 day to win people round. Chances are you will lose.
If you spend a week or two, gradually having people publish their letters and talk about why Johnson has to go, you have much more opportunity to convince other MPs to vote Johnson out in the confidence ballot when it is triggered.
No point holding a confidence vote only for Johnson to win it.
An icy invertebrate is little good to anyone.
9:06 AM · Feb 3, 2022·Twitter for iPad
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So far, the PM’s operation has been poor, making verifiably impossible claims about possible tactics, hubristically claiming momentum at natural pause points and alienating doubtful MPs.
Perhaps it will improve.
https://mobile.twitter.com/AlastairMeeks/status/1489163247081213955
- Statements in the newspapers.
- Statements from Dom
in that it was compiled from actual source evidence.
We hope.
What nobody realises is that if Boris is FPNed he deliberately won't pay. Then they have to wait 28 days and prosecute for non payment. The courts are congested as fuck anyway, his QC asks for 3 weeks to be set aside for trial, and that buys him the right to say We must not prejudice the ongoing proceedings, till about 2032
Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, Health Minister Lena Hallengren and Director General of the Public Health Agency, Karin Tegmark Wisell, announced that almost all restrictions will be removed on February 9th, and that those working from home should prepare to return to work."
https://www.thelocal.se/20220203/breaking-swedish-government-will-lift-covid-19-restrictions-on-february-9th/
Any Conservative and Unionist should warmly welcome Poots and the DUP's decision to remove the Irish border as I do. The EU always showed contempt for NI Unionists in the Brexit talks and they should not be surprised the DUP have responded at last.
Well done Brandon Lewis and Boris and Truss for backing the DUP on this and throwing out the Irish Sea border!
The GFA requires Unionist and Nationalist consent. The future of the Union with Scotland however is reserved to Westminster under the Scotland Act 1998
Everyone's useful. No-one's indispensable.