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Latest next Tory leader betting on the Smarkets exchange – politicalbetting.com

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  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,720
    Scott_xP said:

    Tory MP says Boris Johnson will be gone in 'one week' after 'game changer'.

    Read more 👇

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1483465331637112833

    Seriously? I can't wait a whole week ffs!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,990
    Heathener said:

    Sky going big on Johnson going soon.

    https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-partygate-latest-news-live-downing-street-parties-uk-politics-12514080

    If he's gone within a week as suggested then it has to be Rishi Sunak. Mike will win a packet on a fantastic bet.

    I reckon it's the only time Sunak can become Prime Minister. Leave it much longer and he will be another William Hague. Right person, wrong time.

    More likely another David Miliband
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,425
    Farooq said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Ok, so now @Leon is banned? Why?

    Can he or @Isam come to the PB get together on March 2nd if they are banned?

    Please can we stop banning people for naff all.

    Sadly, risking libel actions against the site is probably something that cannot be overlooked.
    Yeah - Ok - one was a baddie but I genuinely cannot see why Isam was banned (and still is).
    Both of these posters have been banned on several occasions in the past. Whilst I'd like to see them both back, there must to be some limit to how often someone gets banned before it becomes permanent.
    I am sure that Leon will return in a new guise...
    Yes but he will reveal his true identity after about three or four posts. He can't help himself. His chances of ever being accepted by the security service as an undercover operative are about as likely as Boris Johnson getting an award of honesty, integrity and fidelity, while shouting "I have changed my ways" and everyone believing him.
    He's already back and it was obvious from post 1
    Just so I'm forewarned to steer clear, what's his latest pseudonym please?
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,504

    Farooq said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Ok, so now @Leon is banned? Why?

    Can he or @Isam come to the PB get together on March 2nd if they are banned?

    Please can we stop banning people for naff all.

    Sadly, risking libel actions against the site is probably something that cannot be overlooked.
    Yeah - Ok - one was a baddie but I genuinely cannot see why Isam was banned (and still is).
    Both of these posters have been banned on several occasions in the past. Whilst I'd like to see them both back, there must to be some limit to how often someone gets banned before it becomes permanent.
    I am sure that Leon will return in a new guise...
    Yes but he will reveal his true identity after about three or four posts. He can't help himself. His chances of ever being accepted by the security service as an undercover operative are about as likely as Boris Johnson getting an award of honesty, integrity and fidelity, while shouting "I have changed my ways" and everyone believing him.
    He's already back and it was obvious from post 1
    Oh? Do tell? What is he calling himself? I will see if I can bait him with a few suggestions that SeanT's books remind me of a kind of down market Dan Brown, or that the worst thing about Johnson is that he is a lazy journalist.
    Scroll down. You'll see him. Second post is even more obvious.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,279

    Watching Boris interview on Sky he looks broken and I would not be surprised if he did resign on the publication of the report

    Did the penny drop for him yesterday being interviewed by Sue?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,499
    A 2019 MP speaks. Wolverhampton South West is a traditional marginal seat (ie not "red wall") https://twitter.com/Stuart4WolvesSW/status/1483465501703614469
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,720

    Boris will shortly be stepping down to spend more time with his family at Peppa Pig World.

    Maybe that is a place that he might find suitable and gainful employment perhaps?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,425
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Ok, so now @Leon is banned? Why?

    Can he or @Isam come to the PB get together on March 2nd if they are banned?

    Please can we stop banning people for naff all.

    Sadly, risking libel actions against the site is probably something that cannot be overlooked.
    Yeah - Ok - one was a baddie but I genuinely cannot see why Isam was banned (and still is).
    Both of these posters have been banned on several occasions in the past. Whilst I'd like to see them both back, there must to be some limit to how often someone gets banned before it becomes permanent.
    I am sure that Leon will return in a new guise...
    Yes but he will reveal his true identity after about three or four posts. He can't help himself. His chances of ever being accepted by the security service as an undercover operative are about as likely as Boris Johnson getting an award of honesty, integrity and fidelity, while shouting "I have changed my ways" and everyone believing him.
    He's already back and it was obvious from post 1
    Oh? Do tell? What is he calling himself? I will see if I can bait him with a few suggestions that SeanT's books remind me of a kind of down market Dan Brown, or that the worst thing about Johnson is that he is a lazy journalist.
    Scroll down. You'll see him. Second post is even more obvious.
    Can't you just tell me?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,688
    Scott_xP said:

    👀 Penny Mordaunt is emerging as a popular candidate among Conservative MPs to replace Boris Johnson
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/penny-mordaunt-emerges-as-dark-horse-candidate-to-succeed-boris-johnson

    Is my long shot saver to main Sunak bet. I am quite simply spooky. :smile:
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,758
    Heathener said:

    Farooq said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Ok, so now @Leon is banned? Why?

    Can he or @Isam come to the PB get together on March 2nd if they are banned?

    Please can we stop banning people for naff all.

    Sadly, risking libel actions against the site is probably something that cannot be overlooked.
    Yeah - Ok - one was a baddie but I genuinely cannot see why Isam was banned (and still is).
    Both of these posters have been banned on several occasions in the past. Whilst I'd like to see them both back, there must to be some limit to how often someone gets banned before it becomes permanent.
    I am sure that Leon will return in a new guise...
    Yes but he will reveal his true identity after about three or four posts. He can't help himself. His chances of ever being accepted by the security service as an undercover operative are about as likely as Boris Johnson getting an award of honesty, integrity and fidelity, while shouting "I have changed my ways" and everyone believing him.
    He's already back and it was obvious from post 1
    Just so I'm forewarned to steer clear, what's his latest pseudonym please?
    “Charles”
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 9,488
    Heathener said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Ok, so now @Leon is banned? Why?

    Can he or @Isam come to the PB get together on March 2nd if they are banned?

    Please can we stop banning people for naff all.

    Sadly, risking libel actions against the site is probably something that cannot be overlooked.
    Yeah - Ok - one was a baddie but I genuinely cannot see why Isam was banned (and still is).
    Both of these posters have been banned on several occasions in the past. Whilst I'd like to see them both back, there must to be some limit to how often someone gets banned before it becomes permanent.
    I am sure that Leon will return in a new guise...
    Yes but he will reveal his true identity after about three or four posts. He can't help himself. His chances of ever being accepted by the security service as an undercover operative are about as likely as Boris Johnson getting an award of honesty, integrity and fidelity, while shouting "I have changed my ways" and everyone believing him.
    He's already back and it was obvious from post 1
    Oh? Do tell? What is he calling himself? I will see if I can bait him with a few suggestions that SeanT's books remind me of a kind of down market Dan Brown, or that the worst thing about Johnson is that he is a lazy journalist.
    Scroll down. You'll see him. Second post is even more obvious.
    Can't you just tell me?
    No to doxing.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,067
    I take it everyone has seen Led By Donkey's Line of Duty Boris interview

    https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1483418498944671746
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,339

    MaxPB said:

    Has to be said this is just sad to watch now, Boris needs to man up and accept his fate. His poor decisions have led to his failures and now it's time for him to go for the sake of the nation. We have a golden opportunity over the next two years to weather the inflation storm and come out fighting fit, but with Boris in charge it will just be more drift.

    Sad to watch is the one thing it isn't.
    The sad time was when half the country backed the lying incompetent (and for balance when the opposition somehow put up an even worse candidate!). I find the current situation simply weird rather than particularly sad. Not fussed if it drags on a few days or weeks but as a country we will need to move on from daily discussions about No 10 parties and that is easier if he goes.
  • HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    Sky going big on Johnson going soon.

    https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-partygate-latest-news-live-downing-street-parties-uk-politics-12514080

    If he's gone within a week as suggested then it has to be Rishi Sunak. Mike will win a packet on a fantastic bet.

    I reckon it's the only time Sunak can become Prime Minister. Leave it much longer and he will be another William Hague. Right person, wrong time.

    More likely another David Miliband
    Thing is when Rishi becomes PM you will be on board and claiming Boris had to go
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,279
    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    One Tory MP this afternoon tells me they think they are “nearly there” when it comes to letters, that numbers far exceed what whips think, that this weekend was a turning point, and that they give the PM “a week.” Says PM should go before SG report.
    https://twitter.com/Mollie_Malone1/status/1483458752854515712

    Music to ears - that he's on the brink - but the betting is still not quite reflecting it. He's 2.7 to still be PM at the next party conf. Bit of a drift but not massive. Good money to be made by backing the view he's toast.
    I'm on end Jan and end Mar for literally thousands

    of pennies

    ETA the party conf bet is probably poor value. you can get 4 odd for end March. If he makes it past then he might be good for October too.
    You mean as you keep telling us you got on at 4-1… with 25 pence?

    Sunday week ago Kinabalu said if I genuinely believe he is out 2022 I can get 2-1 so I put a bullseye on.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    Billionaire investor Chamath Palihapitiya says ‘nobody cares’ about Uyghur genocide in China

    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/17/chamath-palihapitiya-says-nobody-cares-about-uyghur-genocide-in-china.html

    With the winter olympics going ahead in said country its hard to disagree.
    When I was growing up I was taught about all these examples of people who did the right thing even when it wasn't in their interest. Churchill in 1940, MLK in the sit ins, Mandela in prison etc. And of course the heroic characters in fiction we celebrate even more so: Frodo, Luke Skywalker etc.

    I took this to heart. Even though I sometimes in the moment, I always make a huge effort for something I have time to reflect on to do the right thing. One of the biggest disappointments of my coming of age is realizing that the vast majority of people are such moral cowards. People just want to keep their heads down and avoid standing up for what is right. Even worse, they come up with convoluted justifications to hide their cowardice, excuse or play down the immorality and deflect blame to others. It is so pathetic.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,720
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Ok, so now @Leon is banned? Why?

    Can he or @Isam come to the PB get together on March 2nd if they are banned?

    Please can we stop banning people for naff all.

    Sadly, risking libel actions against the site is probably something that cannot be overlooked.
    Yeah - Ok - one was a baddie but I genuinely cannot see why Isam was banned (and still is).
    Both of these posters have been banned on several occasions in the past. Whilst I'd like to see them both back, there must to be some limit to how often someone gets banned before it becomes permanent.
    I am sure that Leon will return in a new guise...
    Yes but he will reveal his true identity after about three or four posts. He can't help himself. His chances of ever being accepted by the security service as an undercover operative are about as likely as Boris Johnson getting an award of honesty, integrity and fidelity, while shouting "I have changed my ways" and everyone believing him.
    He's already back and it was obvious from post 1
    Oh? Do tell? What is he calling himself? I will see if I can bait him with a few suggestions that SeanT's books remind me of a kind of down market Dan Brown, or that the worst thing about Johnson is that he is a lazy journalist.
    Scroll down. You'll see him. Second post is even more obvious.
    That'll take more time than it really warrants. Is it suitably alarmist? Does it involve aliens, Chinese or Russian invasion, or all three?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,425

    Heathener said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Ok, so now @Leon is banned? Why?

    Can he or @Isam come to the PB get together on March 2nd if they are banned?

    Please can we stop banning people for naff all.

    Sadly, risking libel actions against the site is probably something that cannot be overlooked.
    Yeah - Ok - one was a baddie but I genuinely cannot see why Isam was banned (and still is).
    Both of these posters have been banned on several occasions in the past. Whilst I'd like to see them both back, there must to be some limit to how often someone gets banned before it becomes permanent.
    I am sure that Leon will return in a new guise...
    Yes but he will reveal his true identity after about three or four posts. He can't help himself. His chances of ever being accepted by the security service as an undercover operative are about as likely as Boris Johnson getting an award of honesty, integrity and fidelity, while shouting "I have changed my ways" and everyone believing him.
    He's already back and it was obvious from post 1
    Oh? Do tell? What is he calling himself? I will see if I can bait him with a few suggestions that SeanT's books remind me of a kind of down market Dan Brown, or that the worst thing about Johnson is that he is a lazy journalist.
    Scroll down. You'll see him. Second post is even more obvious.
    Can't you just tell me?
    No to doxing.
    I wouldn't have thought writing a pseudonym of a pseudonym of a banned person counts as doxing but hey ho. I wasn't asking you tell me who the real person is (obviously most of us do know by now).

    I've scrolled down and there are hundreds of posts in this thread. Hopeless task for someone who doesn't want to sit around on here all day.

    Nevermind.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,103
    edited January 18
    eek said:

    I take it everyone has seen Led By Donkey's Line of Duty Boris interview

    https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1483418498944671746

    IMO, not very good, its far too long and takes itself too seriously...the cassette boy one was far more damning all in 90s.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,690
    Heathener said:

    Sky going big on Johnson going soon.

    https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnson-partygate-latest-news-live-downing-street-parties-uk-politics-12514080

    If he's gone within a week as suggested then it has to be Rishi Sunak. Mike will win a packet on a fantastic bet.

    I reckon it's the only time Sunak can become Prime Minister. Leave it much longer and he will be another William Hague. Right person, wrong time.

    I believe our resident aquatic libertarian Bartholomew was the first to tip Sunak. No idea if Sunak would make a good PM, but it's pretty much worth it to see him next just so a 250-1 bet is a winner for someone on the board.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,425
    boulay said:

    Heathener said:

    Farooq said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Ok, so now @Leon is banned? Why?

    Can he or @Isam come to the PB get together on March 2nd if they are banned?

    Please can we stop banning people for naff all.

    Sadly, risking libel actions against the site is probably something that cannot be overlooked.
    Yeah - Ok - one was a baddie but I genuinely cannot see why Isam was banned (and still is).
    Both of these posters have been banned on several occasions in the past. Whilst I'd like to see them both back, there must to be some limit to how often someone gets banned before it becomes permanent.
    I am sure that Leon will return in a new guise...
    Yes but he will reveal his true identity after about three or four posts. He can't help himself. His chances of ever being accepted by the security service as an undercover operative are about as likely as Boris Johnson getting an award of honesty, integrity and fidelity, while shouting "I have changed my ways" and everyone believing him.
    He's already back and it was obvious from post 1
    Just so I'm forewarned to steer clear, what's his latest pseudonym please?
    “Charles”
    I'm not a huge fan of Charles' politics but obviously not. He's been on here far longer than I have by the looks of it.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,504
    Vlad said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Vlad said:

    Why is Leon banned? Too many cooking tips? Pff

    I think he said a public figure had a different sexual orientation than their publicity and life circumstances would suggest

    Given his butt plug crafting, you might say we have lost one impaler but gained another. Net standstill.
    Seems a bit harsh, why not just delete and issue a site-wide warning, but then I'm just a....... manufacturer of wickerwork manginas who lives in a windmill, what do I know
    oh
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,279
    Heathener said:

    “Nobody warned me drinks event was against rules” says man who made the rules and lectured Nation on them.

    WHAT? 🤷‍♀️

    It's utterly ridiculous, isn't it?

    For how much longer must we endure this horseshit?
    Where does it go from here?

    “It’s so unfair it’s so unfair” complains tearful manchild on realising he’s blown it.

    What? He’s done that as well today 😲
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,230
    Alas poor Boris.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,425
    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    👀 Penny Mordaunt is emerging as a popular candidate among Conservative MPs to replace Boris Johnson
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/penny-mordaunt-emerges-as-dark-horse-candidate-to-succeed-boris-johnson

    Is my long shot saver to main Sunak bet. I am quite simply spooky. :smile:
    Penny Mordaunt is brilliant but if I like her she can't stand a chance, surely?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,150

    Heathener said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Ok, so now @Leon is banned? Why?

    Can he or @Isam come to the PB get together on March 2nd if they are banned?

    Please can we stop banning people for naff all.

    Sadly, risking libel actions against the site is probably something that cannot be overlooked.
    Yeah - Ok - one was a baddie but I genuinely cannot see why Isam was banned (and still is).
    Both of these posters have been banned on several occasions in the past. Whilst I'd like to see them both back, there must to be some limit to how often someone gets banned before it becomes permanent.
    I am sure that Leon will return in a new guise...
    Yes but he will reveal his true identity after about three or four posts. He can't help himself. His chances of ever being accepted by the security service as an undercover operative are about as likely as Boris Johnson getting an award of honesty, integrity and fidelity, while shouting "I have changed my ways" and everyone believing him.
    He's already back and it was obvious from post 1
    Oh? Do tell? What is he calling himself? I will see if I can bait him with a few suggestions that SeanT's books remind me of a kind of down market Dan Brown, or that the worst thing about Johnson is that he is a lazy journalist.
    Scroll down. You'll see him. Second post is even more obvious.
    Can't you just tell me?
    No to doxing.
    Er, that's NOT doxxing!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,499
    Yesterday I got in touch with The Sun to ask whether James Slack, the PM's former spokesperson, attended the Kate Josephs event December 17th. We were told he didn't want to pre-empt the Sue Gray report so wouldn't comment.
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1483469098780696578
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,425

    Heathener said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Ok, so now @Leon is banned? Why?

    Can he or @Isam come to the PB get together on March 2nd if they are banned?

    Please can we stop banning people for naff all.

    Sadly, risking libel actions against the site is probably something that cannot be overlooked.
    Yeah - Ok - one was a baddie but I genuinely cannot see why Isam was banned (and still is).
    Both of these posters have been banned on several occasions in the past. Whilst I'd like to see them both back, there must to be some limit to how often someone gets banned before it becomes permanent.
    I am sure that Leon will return in a new guise...
    Yes but he will reveal his true identity after about three or four posts. He can't help himself. His chances of ever being accepted by the security service as an undercover operative are about as likely as Boris Johnson getting an award of honesty, integrity and fidelity, while shouting "I have changed my ways" and everyone believing him.
    He's already back and it was obvious from post 1
    Oh? Do tell? What is he calling himself? I will see if I can bait him with a few suggestions that SeanT's books remind me of a kind of down market Dan Brown, or that the worst thing about Johnson is that he is a lazy journalist.
    Scroll down. You'll see him. Second post is even more obvious.
    Can't you just tell me?
    No to doxing.
    Er, that's NOT doxxing!
    Indeed
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,249
    edited January 18
    That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."

    And there's bound to be more coming out.

    So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.

    Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).

    Comments?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,459

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    One Tory MP this afternoon tells me they think they are “nearly there” when it comes to letters, that numbers far exceed what whips think, that this weekend was a turning point, and that they give the PM “a week.” Says PM should go before SG report.
    https://twitter.com/Mollie_Malone1/status/1483458752854515712

    Music to ears - that he's on the brink - but the betting is still not quite reflecting it. He's 2.7 to still be PM at the next party conf. Bit of a drift but not massive. Good money to be made by backing the view he's toast.
    I'm on end Jan and end Mar for literally thousands

    of pennies

    ETA the party conf bet is probably poor value. you can get 4 odd for end March. If he makes it past then he might be good for October too.
    You mean as you keep telling us you got on at 4-1… with 25 pence?

    Sunday week ago Kinabalu said if I genuinely believe he is out 2022 I can get 2-1 so I put a bullseye on.
    No, thousands of pennies is tens of £

    I think
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 14,397
    Scott_xP said:

    Carrie can stay in politics in her own right, rather than using Johnson as a sock puppet.

    Who would employ her?
    She doesn’t strike me as even the tiniest bit rightwing.

    She’d probably be a decent Labour minister, in her area of expertise.

    Environment Secretary for Sir Keir maybe, albeit with a closely monitored expense account.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,690
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Ok, so now @Leon is banned? Why?

    Can he or @Isam come to the PB get together on March 2nd if they are banned?

    Please can we stop banning people for naff all.

    Sadly, risking libel actions against the site is probably something that cannot be overlooked.
    Yeah - Ok - one was a baddie but I genuinely cannot see why Isam was banned (and still is).
    Both of these posters have been banned on several occasions in the past. Whilst I'd like to see them both back, there must to be some limit to how often someone gets banned before it becomes permanent.
    I am sure that Leon will return in a new guise...
    Yes but he will reveal his true identity after about three or four posts. He can't help himself. His chances of ever being accepted by the security service as an undercover operative are about as likely as Boris Johnson getting an award of honesty, integrity and fidelity, while shouting "I have changed my ways" and everyone believing him.
    He's already back and it was obvious from post 1
    Oh? Do tell? What is he calling himself? I will see if I can bait him with a few suggestions that SeanT's books remind me of a kind of down market Dan Brown, or that the worst thing about Johnson is that he is a lazy journalist.
    Scroll down. You'll see him. Second post is even more obvious.
    Can't you just tell me?
    No to doxing.
    I wouldn't have thought writing a pseudonym of a pseudonym of a banned person counts as doxing but hey ho. I wasn't asking you tell me who the real person is (obviously most of us do know by now).

    I've scrolled down and there are hundreds of posts in this thread. Hopeless task for someone who doesn't want to sit around on here all day.

    Nevermind.
    If you can't identify him yourself then you don't need to know, because if it isn't obvious to you then he's clearly not noticeably different enough to you for you to need to avoid him.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,688
    Scott_xP said:

    Commons Confidential: Will Allegra be next to turn on Boris Johnson? - New Statesman https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2022/01/commons-confidential-will-allegra-be-next-to-turn-on-boris-johnson

    I'd like to see that.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,103
    edited January 18
    Murder Tuesday is back...headline figure 438 deaths.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,067
    Scott_xP said:

    Yesterday I got in touch with The Sun to ask whether James Slack, the PM's former spokesperson, attended the Kate Josephs event December 17th. We were told he didn't want to pre-empt the Sue Gray report so wouldn't comment.
    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1483469098780696578

    why on earth do people not say Yes when the answer is an obvious Yes.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,720
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Ok, so now @Leon is banned? Why?

    Can he or @Isam come to the PB get together on March 2nd if they are banned?

    Please can we stop banning people for naff all.

    Sadly, risking libel actions against the site is probably something that cannot be overlooked.
    Yeah - Ok - one was a baddie but I genuinely cannot see why Isam was banned (and still is).
    Both of these posters have been banned on several occasions in the past. Whilst I'd like to see them both back, there must to be some limit to how often someone gets banned before it becomes permanent.
    I am sure that Leon will return in a new guise...
    Yes but he will reveal his true identity after about three or four posts. He can't help himself. His chances of ever being accepted by the security service as an undercover operative are about as likely as Boris Johnson getting an award of honesty, integrity and fidelity, while shouting "I have changed my ways" and everyone believing him.
    He's already back and it was obvious from post 1
    Oh? Do tell? What is he calling himself? I will see if I can bait him with a few suggestions that SeanT's books remind me of a kind of down market Dan Brown, or that the worst thing about Johnson is that he is a lazy journalist.
    Scroll down. You'll see him. Second post is even more obvious.
    Can't you just tell me?
    No to doxing.
    I wouldn't have thought writing a pseudonym of a pseudonym of a banned person counts as doxing but hey ho. I wasn't asking you tell me who the real person is (obviously most of us do know by now).

    I've scrolled down and there are hundreds of posts in this thread. Hopeless task for someone who doesn't want to sit around on here all day.

    Nevermind.
    It would be somewhat amusing if the person we have always assumed Leon is, is NOT Leon. It is simply a conspiracy. Maybe Leon is actually a secret descendent of Dan Brown, and his real identity has been shielded from the world by an army of alien journalists dressed as Benedictine monks....
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 34,866

    Heathener said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Ok, so now @Leon is banned? Why?

    Can he or @Isam come to the PB get together on March 2nd if they are banned?

    Please can we stop banning people for naff all.

    Sadly, risking libel actions against the site is probably something that cannot be overlooked.
    Yeah - Ok - one was a baddie but I genuinely cannot see why Isam was banned (and still is).
    Both of these posters have been banned on several occasions in the past. Whilst I'd like to see them both back, there must to be some limit to how often someone gets banned before it becomes permanent.
    I am sure that Leon will return in a new guise...
    Yes but he will reveal his true identity after about three or four posts. He can't help himself. His chances of ever being accepted by the security service as an undercover operative are about as likely as Boris Johnson getting an award of honesty, integrity and fidelity, while shouting "I have changed my ways" and everyone believing him.
    He's already back and it was obvious from post 1
    Oh? Do tell? What is he calling himself? I will see if I can bait him with a few suggestions that SeanT's books remind me of a kind of down market Dan Brown, or that the worst thing about Johnson is that he is a lazy journalist.
    Scroll down. You'll see him. Second post is even more obvious.
    Can't you just tell me?
    No to doxing.
    Shut up, Leon.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,874
    Heathener said:

    “Nobody warned me drinks event was against rules” says man who made the rules and lectured Nation on them.

    WHAT? 🤷‍♀️

    It's utterly ridiculous, isn't it?

    For how much longer must we endure this horseshit?
    Domninic Cummings said that BJ was warned

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60028895

    I imagine that he was answering that charge.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 56,095

    That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."

    It was pathetic. He has the air of a naughty schoolboy who knows you know he's lying but is hoping against insurmountable odds that "something will turn up."
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,130
    edited January 18
    The Tories could definitely enjoy a bounce and at least temporary perception change from installing Sunak. He's such a change of style there's bound to be some move back, although there are obviously a lot of problems in the pipeline too. A slight honeymoon period compared to now maybe, relatively speaking, and only for a few months.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,720

    Scott_xP said:

    Carrie can stay in politics in her own right, rather than using Johnson as a sock puppet.

    Who would employ her?
    She doesn’t strike me as even the tiniest bit rightwing.

    She’d probably be a decent Labour minister, in her area of expertise.

    Environment Secretary for Sir Keir maybe, albeit with a closely monitored expense account.
    It would be great to discover that Sir Keir was sharing his pork sausage with her.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,279
    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    👀 Penny Mordaunt is emerging as a popular candidate among Conservative MPs to replace Boris Johnson
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/penny-mordaunt-emerges-as-dark-horse-candidate-to-succeed-boris-johnson

    Is my long shot saver to main Sunak bet. I am quite simply spooky. :smile:
    Tugendhat and Mourdant both showing up in lists like the header this week. 🙂

    Firstly, do we have scooby names for them as with my crap spelling I will get these surnames wrongover and over. Tuggy and Pen?

    Secondly, just how exposed have they been at higher quality level? Surely there is no one as good at dispatch box or interviews as Sunak?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,459
    Is it PMQ as usual tom?

    Agony if yes.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,312

    Scott_xP said:

    Carrie can stay in politics in her own right, rather than using Johnson as a sock puppet.

    Who would employ her?
    She doesn’t strike me as even the tiniest bit rightwing.

    She’d probably be a decent Labour minister, in her area of expertise.

    Environment Secretary for Sir Keir maybe, albeit with a closely monitored expense account.
    It would be great to discover that Sir Keir was sharing his pork sausage with her.
    Slightly unfortunate if unintentionally so expression from SKS's side of matters.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 14,397
    Reading today’s Times, there’s a much softer line on the masks. Says there’s a discussion going on as to whether to drop Plan B entirely (including masks) or just the WFH and vaxports bit.

    “The debate now is whether to separate things out or do it all as a package,” one source said.

    As keeping masks would require a new bill, I think it will be very hard for the government to do.

    So HY may end up having to change his opinion to ensure it aligns with government policy.
  • FarooqFarooq Posts: 7,504

    Scott_xP said:

    Carrie can stay in politics in her own right, rather than using Johnson as a sock puppet.

    Who would employ her?
    She doesn’t strike me as even the tiniest bit rightwing.

    She’d probably be a decent Labour minister, in her area of expertise.

    Environment Secretary for Sir Keir maybe, albeit with a closely monitored expense account.
    It would be great to discover that Sir Keir was sharing his pork sausage with her.
    FFS
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,312

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Ok, so now @Leon is banned? Why?

    Can he or @Isam come to the PB get together on March 2nd if they are banned?

    Please can we stop banning people for naff all.

    Sadly, risking libel actions against the site is probably something that cannot be overlooked.
    Yeah - Ok - one was a baddie but I genuinely cannot see why Isam was banned (and still is).
    Both of these posters have been banned on several occasions in the past. Whilst I'd like to see them both back, there must to be some limit to how often someone gets banned before it becomes permanent.
    I am sure that Leon will return in a new guise...
    Yes but he will reveal his true identity after about three or four posts. He can't help himself. His chances of ever being accepted by the security service as an undercover operative are about as likely as Boris Johnson getting an award of honesty, integrity and fidelity, while shouting "I have changed my ways" and everyone believing him.
    He's already back and it was obvious from post 1
    Oh? Do tell? What is he calling himself? I will see if I can bait him with a few suggestions that SeanT's books remind me of a kind of down market Dan Brown, or that the worst thing about Johnson is that he is a lazy journalist.
    Scroll down. You'll see him. Second post is even more obvious.
    Can't you just tell me?
    No to doxing.
    I wouldn't have thought writing a pseudonym of a pseudonym of a banned person counts as doxing but hey ho. I wasn't asking you tell me who the real person is (obviously most of us do know by now).

    I've scrolled down and there are hundreds of posts in this thread. Hopeless task for someone who doesn't want to sit around on here all day.

    Nevermind.
    It would be somewhat amusing if the person we have always assumed Leon is, is NOT Leon. It is simply a conspiracy. Maybe Leon is actually a secret descendent of Dan Brown, and his real identity has been shielded from the world by an army of alien journalists dressed as Benedictine monks....
    I knew it was a mistake to install wifi in Rosslyn Chapel.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,469
    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Carrie can stay in politics in her own right, rather than using Johnson as a sock puppet.

    Who would employ her?
    She doesn’t strike me as even the tiniest bit rightwing.

    She’d probably be a decent Labour minister, in her area of expertise.

    Environment Secretary for Sir Keir maybe, albeit with a closely monitored expense account.
    It would be great to discover that Sir Keir was sharing his pork sausage with her.
    FFS
    Exactly
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,230
    IshmaelZ said:

    Is it PMQ as usual tom?

    Agony if yes.

    Not as usual.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,385

    Reading today’s Times, there’s a much softer line on the masks. Says there’s a discussion going on as to whether to drop Plan B entirely (including masks) or just the WFH and vaxports bit.

    “The debate now is whether to separate things out or do it all as a package,” one source said.

    As keeping masks would require a new bill, I think it will be very hard for the government to do.

    So HY may end up having to change his opinion to ensure it aligns with government policy.

    3rd sentence is the reason the reports about dropping the rest and keeping masks were always likely to be bilge briefed out by civil servants who want to keep this going.

    Boris does not have anywhere near the political capital for another triple figure rebellion, and there is no way to keep masks without one.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,425
    Vlad said:

    Why is Leon banned? Too many cooking tips? Pff

    Ah!


    Personally I'd quite like to see people sin binned rather than banned. A week, a month, three months in extremis.

    Outright bans reserved for libellous posts or impersonation?

    Just a thought and, frankly, none of my business :)
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,459

    That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."

    And there's bound to be more coming out.

    So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.

    Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).

    Comments?

    Sounds abot right. @kinabalu thinks RS is value even at short odds, 2.2 ish at present on smarkets, I think that's only fair value. Con leadership contests surprise as often as not.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,279

    The Tories could definitely enjoy a bounce and at least temporary perception change from installing Sunak. He's so different in style there's bound to be some move back, although there are obviously a lot of problems in the pipeline too. A slight honeymoon period, maybe.

    It’s impossible to say. The public might just take to mr smooth regardless what problems he is struggling with. Some politicians just more Teflon than others, he strikes me as one of them.

    Some of this Great Depression stuff on the horizon i’m thinking might be slightly bigged up. The financial media increasingly reckon high inflation will be short lived, growth is good and may continue with post covid rebound, credit crunch may not be without government mitigation, such as give money to energy suppliers so they don’t have to charge so much.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,720
    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Carrie can stay in politics in her own right, rather than using Johnson as a sock puppet.

    Who would employ her?
    She doesn’t strike me as even the tiniest bit rightwing.

    She’d probably be a decent Labour minister, in her area of expertise.

    Environment Secretary for Sir Keir maybe, albeit with a closely monitored expense account.
    It would be great to discover that Sir Keir was sharing his pork sausage with her.
    FFS
    lol. Sorry, but only slightly more silly than the idea of, say, John Major copping with, say, Edwina Curry.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,690
    edited January 18

    That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."

    And there's bound to be more coming out.

    So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.

    Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometime throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).

    Comments?

    Part of the price for Johnson agreeing to make a somewhat more dignified exit is that he gets to stay on during the contest to replace him, and means enough distance is created that people can be polite when it's time for him to make way for his replacement. Being forced out in a period of hours would be humiliating. So I think no temporary PM.

    All the polling seems to point one way - to Sunak - except for the ConHome survey. Don't think any other halfway credible candidates have the public profile for future polling to show otherwise. Is this the determining factor?

    It's possible that the other candidate to go to the members might impress enough to overturn that - Cameron did so - but they won't have much time.

    I think most of the other leadership contenders will be auditioning for Cabinet jobs, or laying down a marker for the future. There are potentially many Cabinet jobs on offer if Sunak dispenses with most of the dead wood.
  • rjkrjk Posts: 56

    That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."

    "Nobody warned me drinks event was against rules - Boris Johnson" is currently running on the BBC. If I'd managed to allow myself to be baited into saying that, I'd crawl under a rock and die of shame. Boris Johnson, on the other hand...

    I'm not normally one for seeing Cummings as a mastermind, but his hand is quite visible here. He said that he had told Johnson that the party was against the rules, and Johnson has taken the bait and responded "no, nobody told me that the party was against the rules!", neglecting to remember that as the Prime Minister who had announced the rules he might be expected to know them without being told.

    Even if Johnson is incapable of embarassment, his colleagues aren't. It's actually quite hard to maintain self-respect when you are, even nominally, being led around by someone who very obviously does not have his act together. At some point it becomes an offence to the vanity of Tory MPs, and at that point (which might be right about now) he's toast.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 43,107
    edited January 18

    That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."

    And there's bound to be more coming out.

    So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.

    Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).

    Comments?

    Thin markets, but Raab 20 on Betfair for next PM (decent value, IMO) vs 29 for next leader (which is way too short), so you are not alone.

    An outsider is possible, should MPs and Tory selectorate decide the entire cabinet is tainted*. But rather unlikely.

    *It is.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,469
    Nigelb said:

    That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."

    And there's bound to be more coming out.

    So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.

    Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).

    Comments?

    Thin markets, but Raab 20 on Betfair for next PM (decent value, IMO) vs 29 for next leader (which is way too short), so you are not alone.

    An outsider is possible, should MPs and Tory selectorate decide the entire cabinet is tainted*. But rather unlikely.

    *It is.
    Read the market rules, caretaker leaders might not pay out.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 14,397

    Scott_xP said:

    Carrie can stay in politics in her own right, rather than using Johnson as a sock puppet.

    Who would employ her?
    She doesn’t strike me as even the tiniest bit rightwing.

    She’d probably be a decent Labour minister, in her area of expertise.

    Environment Secretary for Sir Keir maybe, albeit with a closely monitored expense account.
    It would be great to discover that Sir Keir was sharing his pork sausage with her.
    What are you insinuating?

    Both she and he are vegetarians I believe!! 😉
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,103
    Boris statement is even more ridiculous than the infamous Brown quote, "I take full responsibility for what happens, and that's why the person who was responsible went immediately."
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 14,397
    A very warm welcome to the site to Vlad!

    Lol.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,425

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    👀 Penny Mordaunt is emerging as a popular candidate among Conservative MPs to replace Boris Johnson
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/penny-mordaunt-emerges-as-dark-horse-candidate-to-succeed-boris-johnson

    Is my long shot saver to main Sunak bet. I am quite simply spooky. :smile:
    Tugendhat and Mourdant both showing up in lists like the header this week. 🙂

    Firstly, do we have scooby names for them as with my crap spelling I will get these surnames wrongover and over. Tuggy and Pen?

    Secondly, just how exposed have they been at higher quality level? Surely there is no one as good at dispatch box or interviews as Sunak?
    Penny has been a Minister. Three posts: International Development, Women and Equality and then Defence Secretary.

    and others since

    But she saw through Boris Johnson so he didn't like her.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,657
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    eek said:

    By irritated loyal minister I take it she means one of the many who will never see ministerial office again once Boris has gone.

    Which is most of them...
    I'd keep in post (of course one of these might be PM) or promote(*)

    Sunak
    Truss
    Wallace
    Gove
    Javid
    Kwarteng*
    Sharma
    Zahawi*
    Eustice

    And ditch most of the rest.....
    Euslice ?
    Really ?
    Eustice is doing a pretty good job from the environment/animal welfare perspective - one of the Ministers quietly pursuing the day job instead of posturing.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,067

    That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."

    And there's bound to be more coming out.

    So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.

    Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometime throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).

    Comments?

    Part of the price for Johnson agreeing to make a somewhat more dignified exit is that he gets to stay on during the contest to replace him, and means enough distance is created that people can be polite when it's time for him to make way for his replacement. Being forced out in a period of hours would be humiliating. So I think no temporary PM.

    All the polling seems to point one way - to Sunak - except for the ConHome survey. Don't think any other halfway credible candidates have the public profile for future polling to show otherwise. Is this the determining factor?

    It's possible that the other candidate to go to the members might impress enough to overturn that - Cameron did so - but they won't have much time.

    I think most of the other leadership contenders will be auditioning for Cabinet jobs, or laying down a marker for the future. There are potentially many Cabinet jobs on offer if Sunak dispenses with most of the dead wood.
    Oh I suspect Sunak will be dispensing with a lot of dead wood - he has a lot to fix if he wants to see past 2023 /24.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,708
    Two years ago today nobody knew who Emma Raducanu was. No one normal knew who Rishi Sunak was. Or Chris Witty. Extraordinary really.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,459
    IshmaelZ said:

    That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."

    And there's bound to be more coming out.

    So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.

    Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).

    Comments?

    Sounds abot right. @kinabalu thinks RS is value even at short odds, 2.2 ish at present on smarkets, I think that's only fair value. Con leadership contests surprise as often as not.
    BUT sunak 3.7 to be PM on 1.1.23 which gets round the interim PM problem of backing him as next PM. that's the bet I would go for if I wanted to back him at all.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,279
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    One Tory MP this afternoon tells me they think they are “nearly there” when it comes to letters, that numbers far exceed what whips think, that this weekend was a turning point, and that they give the PM “a week.” Says PM should go before SG report.
    https://twitter.com/Mollie_Malone1/status/1483458752854515712

    Music to ears - that he's on the brink - but the betting is still not quite reflecting it. He's 2.7 to still be PM at the next party conf. Bit of a drift but not massive. Good money to be made by backing the view he's toast.
    I'm on end Jan and end Mar for literally thousands

    of pennies

    ETA the party conf bet is probably poor value. you can get 4 odd for end March. If he makes it past then he might be good for October too.
    You mean as you keep telling us you got on at 4-1… with 25 pence?

    Sunday week ago Kinabalu said if I genuinely believe he is out 2022 I can get 2-1 so I put a bullseye on.
    No, thousands of pennies is tens of £

    I think
    Almost half as much as my fifty quid at 2-1 then?
  • eekeek Posts: 21,067

    The Tories could definitely enjoy a bounce and at least temporary perception change from installing Sunak. He's so different in style there's bound to be some move back, although there are obviously a lot of problems in the pipeline too. A slight honeymoon period, maybe.

    It’s impossible to say. The public might just take to mr smooth regardless what problems he is struggling with. Some politicians just more Teflon than others, he strikes me as one of them.

    Some of this Great Depression stuff on the horizon i’m thinking might be slightly bigged up. The financial media increasingly reckon high inflation will be short lived, growth is good and may continue with post covid rebound, credit crunch may not be without government mitigation, such as give money to energy suppliers so they don’t have to charge so much.
    If the financial media are saying high inflation is shorted live - my assumption based on 50 years of experience is that stagflation here we go.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,150

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Ok, so now @Leon is banned? Why?

    Can he or @Isam come to the PB get together on March 2nd if they are banned?

    Please can we stop banning people for naff all.

    Sadly, risking libel actions against the site is probably something that cannot be overlooked.
    Yeah - Ok - one was a baddie but I genuinely cannot see why Isam was banned (and still is).
    Both of these posters have been banned on several occasions in the past. Whilst I'd like to see them both back, there must to be some limit to how often someone gets banned before it becomes permanent.
    I am sure that Leon will return in a new guise...
    Yes but he will reveal his true identity after about three or four posts. He can't help himself. His chances of ever being accepted by the security service as an undercover operative are about as likely as Boris Johnson getting an award of honesty, integrity and fidelity, while shouting "I have changed my ways" and everyone believing him.
    He's already back and it was obvious from post 1
    Oh? Do tell? What is he calling himself? I will see if I can bait him with a few suggestions that SeanT's books remind me of a kind of down market Dan Brown, or that the worst thing about Johnson is that he is a lazy journalist.
    Scroll down. You'll see him. Second post is even more obvious.
    Can't you just tell me?
    No to doxing.
    I wouldn't have thought writing a pseudonym of a pseudonym of a banned person counts as doxing but hey ho. I wasn't asking you tell me who the real person is (obviously most of us do know by now).

    I've scrolled down and there are hundreds of posts in this thread. Hopeless task for someone who doesn't want to sit around on here all day.

    Nevermind.
    It would be somewhat amusing if the person we have always assumed Leon is, is NOT Leon. It is simply a conspiracy. Maybe Leon is actually a secret descendent of Dan Brown, and his real identity has been shielded from the world by an army of alien journalists dressed as Benedictine monks....
    Maybe Leon is simply a GPT-3 construct :lol:
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,499
    No one can be sure but two MPs have told me today they believe the threshold for a leadership challenge may soon be reached, a major turn of fortune from even yesterday. Both of them were not part of the 2019 group meetings that took place yday and today.
    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1483473106828251140
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,499
    It is particularly bad news for Boris Johnson if 2019ers who:

    a) were elected off the back of his leadership

    b) would be expected to be on best behaviour hoping for a ministerial job one day

    are plotting against the PM.

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1483473180408885255
    https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1483443966636867588
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,438

    That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."

    It was pathetic. He has the air of a naughty schoolboy who knows you know he's lying but is hoping against insurmountable odds that "something will turn up."
    I think we're down to "Maybe the horse will talk" now.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,499
    "Two former Downing Street officials told the BBC they remember Mr Cummings telling them that day he had warned the prime minister not to go ahead."

    Added to @BethRigby's "source inside No. 10", four people now recall events differently to the PM. ~ AA


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60028895
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,459

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    One Tory MP this afternoon tells me they think they are “nearly there” when it comes to letters, that numbers far exceed what whips think, that this weekend was a turning point, and that they give the PM “a week.” Says PM should go before SG report.
    https://twitter.com/Mollie_Malone1/status/1483458752854515712

    Music to ears - that he's on the brink - but the betting is still not quite reflecting it. He's 2.7 to still be PM at the next party conf. Bit of a drift but not massive. Good money to be made by backing the view he's toast.
    I'm on end Jan and end Mar for literally thousands

    of pennies

    ETA the party conf bet is probably poor value. you can get 4 odd for end March. If he makes it past then he might be good for October too.
    You mean as you keep telling us you got on at 4-1… with 25 pence?

    Sunday week ago Kinabalu said if I genuinely believe he is out 2022 I can get 2-1 so I put a bullseye on.
    No, thousands of pennies is tens of £

    I think
    Almost half as much as my fifty quid at 2-1 then?
    That depends what the meaning of "almost" is
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,004
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."

    And there's bound to be more coming out.

    So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.

    Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).

    Comments?

    Thin markets, but Raab 20 on Betfair for next PM (decent value, IMO) vs 29 for next leader (which is way too short), so you are not alone.

    An outsider is possible, should MPs and Tory selectorate decide the entire cabinet is tainted*. But rather unlikely.

    *It is.
    Read the market rules, caretaker leaders might not pay out.
    PM is fortunately a gazateered position so there less ambiguity.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,000
    Heathener said:

    kinabalu said:

    Scott_xP said:

    👀 Penny Mordaunt is emerging as a popular candidate among Conservative MPs to replace Boris Johnson
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/penny-mordaunt-emerges-as-dark-horse-candidate-to-succeed-boris-johnson

    Is my long shot saver to main Sunak bet. I am quite simply spooky. :smile:
    Tugendhat and Mourdant both showing up in lists like the header this week. 🙂

    Firstly, do we have scooby names for them as with my crap spelling I will get these surnames wrongover and over. Tuggy and Pen?

    Secondly, just how exposed have they been at higher quality level? Surely there is no one as good at dispatch box or interviews as Sunak?
    Penny has been a Minister. Three posts: International Development, Women and Equality and then Defence Secretary.

    and others since

    But she saw through Boris Johnson so he didn't like her.
    Didn't she find his advances repellent? Or something like that?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,499
    One said the mood is “hardening” and disquiet coming from a number of different wings, new MPs but also experienced, sober types who believe a quick change is their best saviour. Who knows, only Graham Brady...
    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1483473601361760262
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,103
    Scott_xP said:

    "Two former Downing Street officials told the BBC they remember Mr Cummings telling them that day he had warned the prime minister not to go ahead."

    Added to @BethRigby's "source inside No. 10", four people now recall events differently to the PM. ~ AA


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60028895

    Sounds like they have chucked the big dog under the bus to Inspector Grey...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 47,312
    Heathener said:

    Vlad said:

    Why is Leon banned? Too many cooking tips? Pff

    Ah!


    Personally I'd quite like to see people sin binned rather than banned. A week, a month, three months in extremis.

    Outright bans reserved for libellous posts or impersonation?

    Just a thought and, frankly, none of my business :)
    99% of bans are sin bins.

    You need to say something pretty outrageous (like "Radiohead are a bunch of talentless hacks") to earn a permanent ban.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,425
    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    Vlad said:

    Why is Leon banned? Too many cooking tips? Pff

    Ah!


    Personally I'd quite like to see people sin binned rather than banned. A week, a month, three months in extremis.

    Outright bans reserved for libellous posts or impersonation?

    Just a thought and, frankly, none of my business :)
    99% of bans are sin bins.

    You need to say something pretty outrageous (like "Radiohead are a bunch of talentless hacks") to earn a permanent ban.
    :)

    Or advocate pineapple on pizza presumably?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,385
    English hospital beds occupied falling in every region, so we are almost certainly past peak deaths by specimen date, and they are going to have peaked at less than half the bottom of the 600-6000 range.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,103
    edited January 18
    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    Vlad said:

    Why is Leon banned? Too many cooking tips? Pff

    Ah!


    Personally I'd quite like to see people sin binned rather than banned. A week, a month, three months in extremis.

    Outright bans reserved for libellous posts or impersonation?

    Just a thought and, frankly, none of my business :)
    99% of bans are sin bins.

    You need to say something pretty outrageous (like "Radiohead are a bunch of talentless hacks") to earn a permanent ban.
    Radiohead are a bunch of talentl.......ed hipsters. Phew.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,230
    Whatever Boris' fate I hope that someone has the sense to lock Cummings up for the rest of his life.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,067
    edited January 18
    Vlad said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Vlad said:

    Why is Leon banned? Too many cooking tips? Pff

    I think he said a public figure had a different sexual orientation than their publicity and life circumstances would suggest

    Given his butt plug crafting, you might say we have lost one impaler but gained another. Net standstill.
    Seems a bit harsh, why not just delete and issue a site-wide warning, but then I'm just a....... manufacturer of wickerwork manginas who lives in a windmill, what do I know
    Now I'm not saying that Vlad is the 6th reincarnation of SeanT - but the back story does need some work - it's less plausible than the coincides in a S K Tremayne novel
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,688
    Heathener said:

    Vlad said:

    Why is Leon banned? Too many cooking tips? Pff

    Ah!

    Personally I'd quite like to see people sin binned rather than banned. A week, a month, three months in extremis.

    Outright bans reserved for libellous posts or impersonation?

    Just a thought and, frankly, none of my business :)
    That is how it is, I believe. Me, I've never managed it. I have, however, THREE times had a post removed for being too tasty. So I'm no dull-as-ditchwater, holier-than-thou, po-faced, insipid nonentity. Not at all.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 25,499
    rcs1000 said:

    Radiohead are a bunch of talentless hacks

    Never thought I would see that...
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,279

    That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."

    And there's bound to be more coming out.

    So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.

    Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).

    Comments?

    “ Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. ‘. Yes! 👍🏻

    I wasn’t around for the end of Margaret Thatcher, but didn’t John Major get so much support it pointless the others fighting on? If Rishi gets so many MPs so others concede there is no point of a membership round, how upset will the membership be?

    PM Sunak in about two weeks?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,941
    Scott_xP said:

    "Two former Downing Street officials told the BBC they remember Mr Cummings telling them that day he had warned the prime minister not to go ahead."

    Added to @BethRigby's "source inside No. 10", four people now recall events differently to the PM. ~ AA


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60028895

    For goodness sake, give the guy a break. We can all get a bit squiffy after a banging work event.
  • eekeek Posts: 21,067
    Scott_xP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Radiohead are a bunch of talentless hacks

    Never thought I would see that...
    @Scott_xP it's be nice knowing you.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Scott_xP said:

    One said the mood is “hardening” and disquiet coming from a number of different wings, new MPs but also experienced, sober types who believe a quick change is their best saviour. Who knows, only Graham Brady...
    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1483473601361760262


    I'm impressed by how good the links are between left-leaning media and the hard-nosed brexiteers of the red wall and the shires.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 10,374
    HYUFD said:

    boulay said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    The Scottish Tories back in hot water:

    Lords watchdog launches inquiry into Michelle Mone over ‘VIP lane’ contract
    Investigation into Tory peer relates to PPE company awarded £203m in government contracts

    The commissioner confirmed that the investigation would be for “alleged involvement in procuring contracts for PPE Medpro, leading to potential breaches” of three provisions of the Lords code, which cover the requirement that peers publicly register “all relevant interests”, and prohibit them from lobbying for a company or a person in which a peer “has a financial interest”.

    The commissioner also stated that Mone would be investigated under the more general provisions of the code’s paragraph 9, which includes that peers “should always act on their personal honour”; must never accept “any financial inducement as an incentive or reward for exercising parliamentary influence”; and “must not seek to profit from membership of the house by accepting or agreeing to accept payment or other incentive or reward in return for providing parliamentary advice or services.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/17/lords-standards-commissioner-launches-inquiry-into-michelle-mone

    Pretty sure Money will now be consigned to that ghastly Johnson type of Toryism with which the SCons have absolutely no connection.
    Will be fascinating seeing the election material the Scottish Conservatives are shortly going to print up. They’ll use blue, but I bet the word “Conservative” is conspicuous by its absence, as will any reference to them being in power in London.

    Will they continue with Ruth Davidson’s moderately successful ‘No Surrender’ strategy? Initial intelligence ( @Carnyx ) suggests not.
    Certainly the
    List MSP leaflet I got the other day was a total contrast to the usual text of
    No to Indyref
    No to Indyref
    No to Indyref
    No to Indyref
    No to Indyref
    No to Indyref
    even at parish council level (if we had parish councils up here) and with 'Conservative' in the smallest possible script compatible with Electoral Commission law and the wavelength of light.

    It was all about roundabouts and only the fetching Sevco FC Blue colour scheme really drove it home it wasn't the local council's LD candidate.

    Union? Us advocate union and subordination to that thing in No. 10? Oh no dear me, no siree.

    Perhaps our other PBScots could report back on any other sightings?
    The Union seems to have become a topic the principal Unionist party seems unwilling to advocate unless pressed. Klaxons should be sounding at BritNat central office.
    Why? The UK Tory government just will refuse indyref2 as ever.

    Whether the SCons manage to finally win 1 Scottish council outright or not or keep largest party in 1 or 2 Scottish councils has very little relevance if any to the Union
    If the Union is to survive then your lot need to start targeting floating voters and capturing their hearts and minds. You are very good at appealing to core Con voters HY, but you are appallingly poor at lifting your eyes and addressing the centre ground. The Unionists are currently in the process of losing Middle Scotland.
    Nope. The Tories could stay in power with not a single Tory MP in Scotland UK wide and can preserve the Union too by refusing indyref2 for as long as they are in power.

    It is not our problem. It might be Labour's problem if they get into power reliant on the SNP and have to give an indyref2 and look at devomax etc but it was Labour who created Holyrood anyway giving a platform for the SNP so it has always been their created problem.

    We Tories do not need to win Middle Scotland, we Tories need to win Middle England to stay in power. Only Labour needs to appeal to Middle Scotland to get back into power with a clear majority or to preserve the Union in any indyref2 they grant if they don't
    Sorry HYUFD but this is absolutely mental. It gives truth to the trope that a lot of Tories only care about being in power and not what being in power is for.

    I’m a Conservative and a Unionist and I want Scotland to WANT to be part of the UK - you don’t attract Scottish sympathy yet alone votes by telling them that they don’t fucking matter because we’ve got enough votes in middle England…..

    If the Tories want to be in charge of a successful UK then they need to be supported by the UK as a whole to get the best out of it otherwise what’s the point of the UK for Scots and what’s the point of Scotland being part of the UK for the rest of the UK if it is ignored and treated as second class when it has so much good to contribute.

    “Sorry guys we really don’t give a shit about you as we’ve got a billion votes in Surrey so we will set the rules to suit them”….. genius!

    Scotland has Holyrood now for most of its domestic policy, it no longer cares about Westminster for half its laws, so why should Westminster Tories care that much about what middle Scotland thinks given it does not even vote Tory anyway? In any case Surrey is no longer safe Tory, unlike say most of Essex or Lincolnshire.
    So, you think the Conservative Party should only care about people who vote for it? Explains a lot.

    And Scots do very much care about many aspects of Reserved policy. Why on earth should we be uninterested in nuclear weapons, taxation and foreign relations?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,279
    Scott_xP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Radiohead are a bunch of talentless hacks

    Never thought I would see that...
    The PB matrix is breaking down? We are all Agent Leon’s.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 14,397
    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    Vlad said:

    Why is Leon banned? Too many cooking tips? Pff

    Ah!


    Personally I'd quite like to see people sin binned rather than banned. A week, a month, three months in extremis.

    Outright bans reserved for libellous posts or impersonation?

    Just a thought and, frankly, none of my business :)
    99% of bans are sin bins.

    You need to say something pretty outrageous (like "Radiohead are a bunch of talentless hacks") to earn a permanent ban.
    Wasn’t Stuart Dickson exiled for half a decade to SwedishPoliticalWagers.com for citing Scottish subsamples?

    An egregious crime, admittedly.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,339
    rcs1000 said:

    Heathener said:

    Vlad said:

    Why is Leon banned? Too many cooking tips? Pff

    Ah!


    Personally I'd quite like to see people sin binned rather than banned. A week, a month, three months in extremis.

    Outright bans reserved for libellous posts or impersonation?

    Just a thought and, frankly, none of my business :)
    99% of bans are sin bins.

    You need to say something pretty outrageous (like "Radiohead are a bunch of talentless hacks") to earn a permanent ban.
    Who are this Radiohead you speak of?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,103
    edited January 18
    Talking of talentless hacks....I see Guy Richie has a new movie coming out with of course the likes of Jason Statham...and Hugh Grant...who seems to have transported the exact voice and mannerisms from the journalist he played in the Gentleman (which was pretty good) to an evil billionaire character in this new movie. All about talent is the movies, apparently.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,438

    Scott_xP said:

    "Two former Downing Street officials told the BBC they remember Mr Cummings telling them that day he had warned the prime minister not to go ahead."

    Added to @BethRigby's "source inside No. 10", four people now recall events differently to the PM. ~ AA


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60028895

    For goodness sake, give the guy a break. We can all get a bit squiffy after a banging work event.
    There's little point in warning someone that a drinks party is against the rules, if he's too out of it from the previous night's drinking to take it in - or even remember you've said it.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,279
    kinabalu said:

    Heathener said:

    Vlad said:

    Why is Leon banned? Too many cooking tips? Pff

    Ah!

    Personally I'd quite like to see people sin binned rather than banned. A week, a month, three months in extremis.

    Outright bans reserved for libellous posts or impersonation?

    Just a thought and, frankly, none of my business :)
    That is how it is, I believe. Me, I've never managed it. I have, however, THREE times had a post removed for being too tasty. So I'm no dull-as-ditchwater, holier-than-thou, po-faced, insipid nonentity. Not at all.
    This sounds like Agent Leon too 😦
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,688
    IshmaelZ said:

    That Boris interview was the end, wasn't it? I can't see him recovering from that. My favourite bit was "I take full responsibility, but nobody told me..."

    And there's bound to be more coming out.

    So it's going to be an early leadership contest, or conceivably coronation. The question now is: can Rishi be stopped, and who amongst Tory MPs would want to stop him? My view is that he does look pretty unstoppable. Hunt has no chance amongst the members, too sane and not ideological on Brexit (nor, probably, is Rishi, but he's managed to conceal that). Liz? I don't think so, quite apart from anything else she's trying too hard. All the other names look too inexperienced or inconsequential to get the gig at a time like this.

    Of course, Tory leadership contests can sometimes throw surprises, but my conclusion is Rishi vs Hunt. Rishi wins. (But as I mentioned a couple of days ago, Raab as a temporary PM is possible, indeed more likely now since it is looking increasingly difficult for Boris to stay on during a contest).

    Comments?

    Sounds abot right. @kinabalu thinks RS is value even at short odds, 2.2 ish at present on smarkets, I think that's only fair value. Con leadership contests surprise as often as not.
    As long as the surprise is Penny M, I'll be in clover. Anyone else and ... oh dear.
This discussion has been closed.