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Latest next Tory leader betting on the Smarkets exchange – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,625
edited January 2022 in General
imageLatest next Tory leader betting on the Smarkets exchange – politicalbetting.com

This is being held at the Smarkets HQ close to the Tower of London. More details soon

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Comments

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,124
    Where's Ben?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,394
    edited January 2022
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    BBC

    EU fears it is closer to war than ever since the break-up of ex Yugoslavia

    This is becoming very serious and real

    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1483168325538570248?t=BfsDeErSEdxW-p6Z5Y7fWg&s=19

    It’s definitely happening. Quickening slide into war this week with Russia taking their diplomats out. The discussion in this last thread convinces me all sides are up for this war, as a chance to settle old scores, as wars tend to be. Even us. As Malmesbury explained, UK are up for putting Russians and Ukrainians through the meat grinder so we can get our own back on Putin for the assassins in UK. Everyone’s up for this Proxy war, it can’t be stopped.

    This really does impact Johnson exit date Big G. A war in Europe of this magnitude and so many players, in reality a proxy war that doesn’t answer the complications of blood and soil in places like Eastern Europe, is a big big thing. I have had chat with my Dad this morning and he feels UK cannot have leadership flux with a war in Europe going on, as things could change too suddenly. I did argue we would still have Boris or Raab as PM, with leadership election going on but he was insistent the vote of no confidence has to wait now, and he was all in favour of proper Tories taking back control a couple of weeks ago ☹️

    Looks like Tory Leadership election is postponed till after the war Big G. 😕. Too dangerous to sack a PM and have flux with this war going on. 🤷‍♀️
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,966
    Betfair "cashout" on Australian open Men's outright sounds like it's made a right mess.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,255
    Pulpstar said:

    Betfair "cashout" on Australian open Men's outright sounds like it's made a right mess.

    People running the POTUS 2020 markets in charge?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,255
    edited January 2022
    MoonRabbit said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    BBC

    EU fears it is closer to war than ever since the break-up of ex Yugoslavia

    This is becoming very serious and real

    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1483168325538570248?t=BfsDeErSEdxW-p6Z5Y7fWg&s=19

    It’s definitely happening. Quickening slide into war this week with Russia taking their diplomats out. The discussion in this last thread convinces me all sides are up for this war, as a chance to settle old scores, as wars tend to be. Even us. As Malmesbury explained, UK are up for putting Russians and Ukrainians through the meat grinder so we can get our own back on Putin for the assassins in UK. Everyone’s up for this Proxy war, it can’t be stopped.

    This really does impact Johnson exit date Big G. A war in Europe of this magnitude and so many players, in reality a proxy war that doesn’t answer the complications of blood and soil in places like Eastern Europe, is a big big thing. I have had chat with my Dad this morning and he feels UK cannot have leadership flux with a war in Europe going on, as things could change too suddenly. I did argue we would still have Boris or Raab as PM, but he was insistent the vote of no confidence has to wait now, and he was all in favour of proper Tories taking back control a couple of weeks ago ☹️

    Looks like Tory Leadership election is postponed till after the war Big G. 😕. Too dangerous to sack a PM and have flux with this war going on. 🤷‍♀️
    Nope, we changed Prime Ministers during both world wars.

    #MyJobHereIsToTeachHistoryToPBers
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,255
    On topic, I think Sunak's chances are toast if he is still Chancellor come April/May time as the cost of living crisis kicks in.

    FWIW - I did hear from someone conducting a focus group in the last 48 hours that the government spin about freezing the BBC licence free as a way of reducing the cost of living has gone down very well.

    'It only goes up a fiver a year and that saving will help as my gas bill goes up £50 a month.'
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,093
    edited January 2022
    Pulpstar said:

    Betfair "cashout" on Australian open Men's outright sounds like it's made a right mess.

    Surely on an exchange you can't have non-runners?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,350
    Pulpstar said:

    Betfair "cashout" on Australian open Men's outright sounds like it's made a right mess.

    That’s what happens when they void bets on one runner, once the race has started.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,380
    MoonRabbit said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    BBC

    EU fears it is closer to war than ever since the break-up of ex Yugoslavia

    This is becoming very serious and real

    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1483168325538570248?t=BfsDeErSEdxW-p6Z5Y7fWg&s=19

    It’s definitely happening. Quickening slide into war this week with Russia taking their diplomats out. The discussion in this last thread convinces me all sides are up for this war, as a chance to settle old scores, as wars tend to be. Even us. As Malmesbury explained, UK are up for putting Russians and Ukrainians through the meat grinder so we can get our own back on Putin for the assassins in UK. Everyone’s up for this Proxy war, it can’t be stopped.

    This really does impact Johnson exit date Big G. A war in Europe of this magnitude and so many players, in reality a proxy war that doesn’t answer the complications of blood and soil in places like Eastern Europe, is a big big thing. I have had chat with my Dad this morning and he feels UK cannot have leadership flux with a war in Europe going on, as things could change too suddenly. I did argue we would still have Boris or Raab as PM, with leadership election going on but he was insistent the vote of no confidence has to wait now, and he was all in favour of proper Tories taking back control a couple of weeks ago ☹️

    Looks like Tory Leadership election is postponed till after the war Big G. 😕. Too dangerous to sack a PM and have flux with this war going on. 🤷‍♀️
    To be honest I have given up predicting on Boris's longevity and in truth I haven't a clue

    Rishi live on Sky just now supporting PM but not effusive
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,394
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    BBC

    EU fears it is closer to war than ever since the break-up of ex Yugoslavia

    This is becoming very serious and real

    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1483168325538570248?t=BfsDeErSEdxW-p6Z5Y7fWg&s=19

    It’s definitely happening. Quickening slide into war this week with Russia taking their diplomats out. The discussion in this last thread convinces me all sides are up for this war, as a chance to settle old scores, as wars tend to be. Even us. As Malmesbury explained, UK are up for putting Russians and Ukrainians through the meat grinder so we can get our own back on Putin for the assassins in UK. Everyone’s up for this Proxy war, it can’t be stopped.

    This really does impact Johnson exit date Big G. A war in Europe of this magnitude and so many players, in reality a proxy war that doesn’t answer the complications of blood and soil in places like Eastern Europe, is a big big thing. I have had chat with my Dad this morning and he feels UK cannot have leadership flux with a war in Europe going on, as things could change too suddenly. I did argue we would still have Boris or Raab as PM, but he was insistent the vote of no confidence has to wait now, and he was all in favour of proper Tories taking back control a couple of weeks ago ☹️

    Looks like Tory Leadership election is postponed till after the war Big G. 😕. Too dangerous to sack a PM and have flux with this war going on. 🤷‍♀️
    Nope, we changed Prime Ministers during both world wars.

    #MyJobHereIsToTeachHistoryToPBers
    Yes I said that. And Ben Wallace will be in charge of war and he is brilliant. But my Dad said no, there isn’t stomach to no confidence Boris at this time with this big Europe war kicking off.

    Can’t just use past examples Eagles, because each situation different. Previous changes in wars probably forced on a Party, getting rid of Boris as this war starts is voluntary decision isn’t it?
  • eekeek Posts: 30,904
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, I think Sunak's chances are toast if he is still Chancellor come April/May time as the cost of living crisis kicks in.

    FWIW - I did hear from someone conducting a focus group in the last 48 hours that the government spin about freezing the BBC licence free as a way of reducing the cost of living has gone down very well.

    'It only goes up a fiver a year and that saving will help as my gas bill goes up £50 a month.'

    I assume that's meant with the sarcasm I would have attached to the statement.

    Yep 50p a month really helps pay the higher energy bill.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,118
    Sandpit said:

    Razedabode said:

    The only thing more worrying than a Russian invasion of Ukraine, is a UK response to one led by Johnson

    Thankfully we elected Johnson and not Corbyn. He’d be sending our C17s to Moscow rather than Kiev.
    ..I can’t argue with that. Presumably Corbyn has already questioned the west’s aggression and “encirclement” of Russia
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,118
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    BBC

    EU fears it is closer to war than ever since the break-up of ex Yugoslavia

    This is becoming very serious and real

    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1483168325538570248?t=BfsDeErSEdxW-p6Z5Y7fWg&s=19

    It’s definitely happening. Quickening slide into war this week with Russia taking their diplomats out. The discussion in this last thread convinces me all sides are up for this war, as a chance to settle old scores, as wars tend to be. Even us. As Malmesbury explained, UK are up for putting Russians and Ukrainians through the meat grinder so we can get our own back on Putin for the assassins in UK. Everyone’s up for this Proxy war, it can’t be stopped.

    This really does impact Johnson exit date Big G. A war in Europe of this magnitude and so many players, in reality a proxy war that doesn’t answer the complications of blood and soil in places like Eastern Europe, is a big big thing. I have had chat with my Dad this morning and he feels UK cannot have leadership flux with a war in Europe going on, as things could change too suddenly. I did argue we would still have Boris or Raab as PM, with leadership election going on but he was insistent the vote of no confidence has to wait now, and he was all in favour of proper Tories taking back control a couple of weeks ago ☹️

    Looks like Tory Leadership election is postponed till after the war Big G. 😕. Too dangerous to sack a PM and have flux with this war going on. 🤷‍♀️
    To be honest I have given up predicting on Boris's longevity and in truth I haven't a clue

    Rishi live on Sky just now supporting PM but not effusive
    Rishi deliberately careful with words.. “of course I believe the PM..I’ll refer you to his words”….

    And, of course, if “his words” were false, easy for Sunak to wriggle out of
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,539
    Razedabode said:

    The only thing more worrying than a Russian invasion of Ukraine, is a UK response to one led by Johnson

    There will not be a UK response, certainly not a military one as the Ukraine is not a member of NATO.

    Only if Russia invaded Poland or the Baltic states for example, which are NATO members, would there be a UK military response. At most there would be some economic sanctions
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    FPT
    Farooq said:

    Razedabode said:

    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    BBC

    EU fears it is closer to war than ever since the break-up of ex Yugoslavia

    This is becoming very serious and real

    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1483168325538570248?t=BfsDeErSEdxW-p6Z5Y7fWg&s=19

    How does the EU go to war in the Ukraine without Germany, exactly? Are they going to rely on the French?
    That's not what the article says. The EU says Europe is closer to war, etc.

    Nobody is going to war in Ukraine except Russia. Even the normally demented tory couch commandos on here don't want British forces involved.
    And yet a small contingent of UK troops are there. Is this wise?
    If anything, letting Russia regain Ukraine by force with no consequence seems to me to be repeating the mistakes of the past…

    “If we let them have this they’ll give up with any further demands”. Yeah, right
    Spot on. If I were the UKPM, and Ukraine asked for help, I'd give it. Troops, equipment, bombs, planes. Anything. We need to contain Putin's aggression.
    The UK has had C-17s shuttling back and forth between Kiev with anti-tank weapons since yesterday.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,539
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, I think Sunak's chances are toast if he is still Chancellor come April/May time as the cost of living crisis kicks in.

    FWIW - I did hear from someone conducting a focus group in the last 48 hours that the government spin about freezing the BBC licence free as a way of reducing the cost of living has gone down very well.

    'It only goes up a fiver a year and that saving will help as my gas bill goes up £50 a month.'

    If Sunak's chances become toast then Boris stays, as Sunak is the only alternative Tory leader to Boris who polls any better than Boris does v Starmer.

  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    Sandpit said:

    Razedabode said:

    The only thing more worrying than a Russian invasion of Ukraine, is a UK response to one led by Johnson

    Thankfully we elected Johnson and not Corbyn. He’d be sending our C17s to Moscow rather than Kiev.
    The electorate had a choice between Dumb and Dumber and chose Dumb. It was a better choice, but only as a forced comparison.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,904
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, I think Sunak's chances are toast if he is still Chancellor come April/May time as the cost of living crisis kicks in.

    FWIW - I did hear from someone conducting a focus group in the last 48 hours that the government spin about freezing the BBC licence free as a way of reducing the cost of living has gone down very well.

    'It only goes up a fiver a year and that saving will help as my gas bill goes up £50 a month.'

    If Sunak's chances become toast then Boris stays, as Sunak is the only alternative Tory leader to Boris who polls any better than Boris does v Starmer.

    Even if Boris is found to have lied to Parliament?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,380
    HYUFD said:

    Razedabode said:

    The only thing more worrying than a Russian invasion of Ukraine, is a UK response to one led by Johnson

    There will not be a UK response, certainly not a military one as the Ukraine is not a member of NATO.

    Only if Russia invaded Poland or the Baltic states for example, which are NATO members, would there be a UK military response. At most there would be some economic sanctions
    You do know we are already providing arms to Ukraine
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Very pleased about the new date for the PB get-together, as I am reasonably confidant I can make it :)
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, I think Sunak's chances are toast if he is still Chancellor come April/May time as the cost of living crisis kicks in.

    FWIW - I did hear from someone conducting a focus group in the last 48 hours that the government spin about freezing the BBC licence free as a way of reducing the cost of living has gone down very well.

    'It only goes up a fiver a year and that saving will help as my gas bill goes up £50 a month.'

    If Sunak's chances become toast then Boris stays, as Sunak is the only alternative Tory leader to Boris who polls any better than Boris does v Starmer.

    ...at the moment. Also, thankfully, not everyone thinks all the important decisions of life should be based on yesterday's opinion poll.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,565
    Sandpit said:

    Razedabode said:

    The only thing more worrying than a Russian invasion of Ukraine, is a UK response to one led by Johnson

    Thankfully we elected Johnson and not Corbyn. He’d be sending our C17s to Moscow rather than Kiev.
    Corbyn would do that on purpose. I wouldn't rule out Johnson doing it by accident through not paying attention. At least Raab isn't PM, he probably hasn't realised yet that Russia and Ukraine are adjacent and have some history. At least he's not Foreign Sec any more :wink:
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,350
    HYUFD said:

    Razedabode said:

    The only thing more worrying than a Russian invasion of Ukraine, is a UK response to one led by Johnson

    There will not be a UK response, certainly not a military one as the Ukraine is not a member of NATO.

    Only if Russia invaded Poland or the Baltic states for example, which are NATO members, would there be a UK military response. At most there would be some economic sanctions
    There’s very much a UK military response in progress. Four (so far) C17s full of anti-tank weapons landed in Kiev, and probably some Western drones and reconnaissance assets heading that way too.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,367
    HYUFD said:

    Razedabode said:

    The only thing more worrying than a Russian invasion of Ukraine, is a UK response to one led by Johnson

    There will not be a UK response, certainly not a military one as the Ukraine is not a member of NATO.

    Only if Russia invaded Poland or the Baltic states for example, which are NATO members, would there be a UK military response. At most there would be some economic sanctions
    It depends how you define military response - in the event of war, UK armed forces will almost certainly not attack Russian forces directly. However we will be providing weapons, it is clear. The only question on that is scale.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,539
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Razedabode said:

    The only thing more worrying than a Russian invasion of Ukraine, is a UK response to one led by Johnson

    There will not be a UK response, certainly not a military one as the Ukraine is not a member of NATO.

    Only if Russia invaded Poland or the Baltic states for example, which are NATO members, would there be a UK military response. At most there would be some economic sanctions
    You do know we are already providing arms to Ukraine
    We will not be sending ground troops, tanks or fighter jets to defend Ukraine, a non NATO member state.

    We sell arms to lots of countries
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,394
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Razedabode said:

    The only thing more worrying than a Russian invasion of Ukraine, is a UK response to one led by Johnson

    There will not be a UK response, certainly not a military one as the Ukraine is not a member of NATO.

    Only if Russia invaded Poland or the Baltic states for example, which are NATO members, would there be a UK military response. At most there would be some economic sanctions
    You do know we are already providing arms to Ukraine
    I agree. UK clearly involved and invested in this coming war. I appreciate that more now than 24 hours ago after listening to PB.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,715
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Betfair "cashout" on Australian open Men's outright sounds like it's made a right mess.

    That’s what happens when they void bets on one runner, once the race has started.
    Voided Djoko bets but made no downwards adjustment (akin to racing rule 4) to bets matched on other players prior to the void. Gift to backers at the expense of layers.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,677
    CarlottaVance said:

    FPT

    Farooq said:

    Razedabode said:

    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    BBC

    EU fears it is closer to war than ever since the break-up of ex Yugoslavia

    This is becoming very serious and real

    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1483168325538570248?t=BfsDeErSEdxW-p6Z5Y7fWg&s=19

    How does the EU go to war in the Ukraine without Germany, exactly? Are they going to rely on the French?
    That's not what the article says. The EU says Europe is closer to war, etc.

    Nobody is going to war in Ukraine except Russia. Even the normally demented tory couch commandos on here don't want British forces involved.
    And yet a small contingent of UK troops are there. Is this wise?
    If anything, letting Russia regain Ukraine by force with no consequence seems to me to be repeating the mistakes of the past…

    “If we let them have this they’ll give up with any further demands”. Yeah, right
    Spot on. If I were the UKPM, and Ukraine asked for help, I'd give it. Troops, equipment, bombs, planes. Anything. We need to contain Putin's aggression.
    The UK has had C-17s shuttling back and forth between Kiev with anti-tank weapons since yesterday.
    On Dura Ace's stats from last night, that's 3 BMPs stopped and a T72 slowed down a bit.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    All a bit grim but where does air power come into this? Would NATO allow Russian planes to control Ukraine airspace?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,367
    Farooq said:

    Razedabode said:

    Farooq said:

    Razedabode said:

    Whilst we still talk about parties (yes, Johnson should go)

    ..for the first time today I’ve woken up thinking that Russia is going to invade Ukraine. I don’t think it’s yet dawned on many what the consequences of this will be - not least a real hardening of Eastern Europeans views against a Germany that seems to have created a reliance on Russia, whilst sacrificing European security as a whole

    Whatever you think of Germany's energy policy, there is no way, none at all, in which you can possibly blame Russian aggression on Germany. Russia is the bad guy here, let's keep that absolutely clear.
    …I fail to see how a Germany that has developed an energy policy based solely on the import of gas from Russia isn’t part of the problem.
    It certainly isn't part of the problem. It DOES make the solution more difficult, but first and foremost this is Russian aggression.
    It's really not helpful to tacitly excuse the aggression with the idea that Germany's error (for that's what it is) has "sacrificed" security. You make it sound like everything was fine before and then it wasn't and it's all Germany's fault. Russia's aggressive stance is down to Russia alone.
    Other country's find themselves in positions of strength with regards to strategic resources without resorting to aggressive expansionist policies. If Russia can't manage it, that's Russia's fault.
    Quite. Imagine that the response to the refugee crisis was the UK threatening to invade France and taking the Pale of Calais...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,380
    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Razedabode said:

    The only thing more worrying than a Russian invasion of Ukraine, is a UK response to one led by Johnson

    There will not be a UK response, certainly not a military one as the Ukraine is not a member of NATO.

    Only if Russia invaded Poland or the Baltic states for example, which are NATO members, would there be a UK military response. At most there would be some economic sanctions
    You do know we are already providing arms to Ukraine
    We will not be sending ground troops, tanks or fighter jets to defend Ukraine, a non NATO member state.

    We sell arms to lots of countries
    You are quite ridiculous

    We are not selling arms to Ukraine we are flying them in on C-17s avoiding German airspace

    Any attack by Russia on Ukraine will provoke retaliation by NATO

    On a personal note my daughter in law in Vancouver and her family are all Ukraine
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,787
    edited January 2022
    Sandpit said:

    Razedabode said:

    The only thing more worrying than a Russian invasion of Ukraine, is a UK response to one led by Johnson

    Thankfully we elected Johnson and not Corbyn. He’d be sending our C17s to Moscow rather than Kiev.
    Lol! :)

    That's true, Sandy, but it would have been nice to be on the winning side for a change.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,515
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Sandpit said:

    Razedabode said:

    The only thing more worrying than a Russian invasion of Ukraine, is a UK response to one led by Johnson

    Thankfully we elected Johnson and not Corbyn. He’d be sending our C17s to Moscow rather than Kiev.
    The electorate had a choice between Dumb and Dumber and chose Dumb. It was a better choice, but only as a forced comparison.
    Are you sure? I weighed up a chastened minority Corbyn against a confident landslide Johnson and they looked equally scary. With hindsight my analysis of Johnson wasn't as harsh as it should have been.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,539
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Razedabode said:

    The only thing more worrying than a Russian invasion of Ukraine, is a UK response to one led by Johnson

    There will not be a UK response, certainly not a military one as the Ukraine is not a member of NATO.

    Only if Russia invaded Poland or the Baltic states for example, which are NATO members, would there be a UK military response. At most there would be some economic sanctions
    You do know we are already providing arms to Ukraine
    We will not be sending ground troops, tanks or fighter jets to defend Ukraine, a non NATO member state.

    We sell arms to lots of countries
    You are quite ridiculous

    We are not selling arms to Ukraine we are flying them in on C-17s avoiding German airspace

    Any attack by Russia on Ukraine will provoke retaliation by NATO

    On a personal note my daughter in law in Vancouver and her family are all Ukraine
    No it will not.

    There will be no tanks or NATO troops sent to Ukraine. It is not a NATO member state.

    Russia also has a veto power on the UN Security Council so there are limits on what the UN can do too unless overwhelming agreement in the UN general assembly for sanctions on Russia.

  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,776
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Sandpit said:

    Razedabode said:

    The only thing more worrying than a Russian invasion of Ukraine, is a UK response to one led by Johnson

    Thankfully we elected Johnson and not Corbyn. He’d be sending our C17s to Moscow rather than Kiev.
    Lol! :)

    That's true, Sandy, but it would have been nice to be on the winning side for a change.
    To be fair, given this Government's level of competence, we could *still* be sending those C17s to Moscow in a "not bad for a near miss" kind of way.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,539
    FrankBooth said:

    All a bit grim but where does air power come into this? Would NATO allow Russian planes to control Ukraine airspace?

    Yes, unless they want all out war with Russia.

    NATO will just focus on ensuring Putin goes no further than Ukraine into a NATO member state like Estonia or Poland
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,350
    FrankBooth said:

    All a bit grim but where does air power come into this? Would NATO allow Russian planes to control Ukraine airspace?

    I imagine Kiev would have no objection to Western reconnaissance aircraft (American U-2s or unmanned drones) in their airspace, with some covert feedback of intelligence to the Ukrainians. There’s probably a fair few deniable special forces out there on the ground already, as well as the supplies of weapons landing at Boryspil.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,565
    Malmesbury said:

    Farooq said:

    Razedabode said:

    Farooq said:

    Razedabode said:

    Whilst we still talk about parties (yes, Johnson should go)

    ..for the first time today I’ve woken up thinking that Russia is going to invade Ukraine. I don’t think it’s yet dawned on many what the consequences of this will be - not least a real hardening of Eastern Europeans views against a Germany that seems to have created a reliance on Russia, whilst sacrificing European security as a whole

    Whatever you think of Germany's energy policy, there is no way, none at all, in which you can possibly blame Russian aggression on Germany. Russia is the bad guy here, let's keep that absolutely clear.
    …I fail to see how a Germany that has developed an energy policy based solely on the import of gas from Russia isn’t part of the problem.
    It certainly isn't part of the problem. It DOES make the solution more difficult, but first and foremost this is Russian aggression.
    It's really not helpful to tacitly excuse the aggression with the idea that Germany's error (for that's what it is) has "sacrificed" security. You make it sound like everything was fine before and then it wasn't and it's all Germany's fault. Russia's aggressive stance is down to Russia alone.
    Other country's find themselves in positions of strength with regards to strategic resources without resorting to aggressive expansionist policies. If Russia can't manage it, that's Russia's fault.
    Quite. Imagine that the response to the refugee crisis was the UK threatening to invade France and taking the Pale of Calais...
    I reckon that might poll quite well, actually. We might find out under a future Patel government...
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,739
    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Razedabode said:

    The only thing more worrying than a Russian invasion of Ukraine, is a UK response to one led by Johnson

    There will not be a UK response, certainly not a military one as the Ukraine is not a member of NATO.

    Only if Russia invaded Poland or the Baltic states for example, which are NATO members, would there be a UK military response. At most there would be some economic sanctions
    You do know we are already providing arms to Ukraine
    We will not be sending ground troops, tanks or fighter jets to defend Ukraine, a non NATO member state.

    We sell arms to lots of countries
    The Saudis used some of them to kill some kids yesterday. Feels good man.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,118
    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Razedabode said:

    The only thing more worrying than a Russian invasion of Ukraine, is a UK response to one led by Johnson

    There will not be a UK response, certainly not a military one as the Ukraine is not a member of NATO.

    Only if Russia invaded Poland or the Baltic states for example, which are NATO members, would there be a UK military response. At most there would be some economic sanctions
    You do know we are already providing arms to Ukraine
    We will not be sending ground troops, tanks or fighter jets to defend Ukraine, a non NATO member state.

    We sell arms to lots of countries
    You are quite ridiculous

    We are not selling arms to Ukraine we are flying them in on C-17s avoiding German airspace

    Any attack by Russia on Ukraine will provoke retaliation by NATO

    On a personal note my daughter in law in Vancouver and her family are all Ukraine
    No it will not.

    There will be no tanks or NATO troops sent to Ukraine. It is not a NATO member state.

    Russia also has a veto power on the UN Security Council so there are limits on what the UN can do too unless overwhelming agreement in the UN general assembly for sanctions on Russia.

    Put in “too difficult” pile.

    Who cares if Ukraine isn’t it NATO. It clearly is wider geopolitical and defence implications for the west if Russia invades. Not as simple and as black and white as “in NATO or not”
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,380
    edited January 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Razedabode said:

    The only thing more worrying than a Russian invasion of Ukraine, is a UK response to one led by Johnson

    There will not be a UK response, certainly not a military one as the Ukraine is not a member of NATO.

    Only if Russia invaded Poland or the Baltic states for example, which are NATO members, would there be a UK military response. At most there would be some economic sanctions
    You do know we are already providing arms to Ukraine
    We will not be sending ground troops, tanks or fighter jets to defend Ukraine, a non NATO member state.

    We sell arms to lots of countries
    You are quite ridiculous

    We are not selling arms to Ukraine we are flying them in on C-17s avoiding German airspace

    Any attack by Russia on Ukraine will provoke retaliation by NATO

    On a personal note my daughter in law in Vancouver and her family are all Ukraine
    No it will not.

    There will be no tanks or NATO troops sent to Ukraine. It is not a NATO member state.

    Russia also has a veto power on the UN Security Council so there are limits on what the UN can do too unless overwhelming agreement in the UN general assembly for sanctions on Russia.

    You haven't a clue about geopolitics

    Indeed we have military advisers there already

    Maybe this will help your ignorance

    BBC News - Russia-Ukraine crisis: UK sending weapons to defend Ukraine, says defence secretary

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60033012
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,255
    eek said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, I think Sunak's chances are toast if he is still Chancellor come April/May time as the cost of living crisis kicks in.

    FWIW - I did hear from someone conducting a focus group in the last 48 hours that the government spin about freezing the BBC licence free as a way of reducing the cost of living has gone down very well.

    'It only goes up a fiver a year and that saving will help as my gas bill goes up £50 a month.'

    I assume that's meant with the sarcasm I would have attached to the statement.

    Yep 50p a month really helps pay the higher energy bill.
    Yup, more sarcastic than I display.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,515
    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Razedabode said:

    The only thing more worrying than a Russian invasion of Ukraine, is a UK response to one led by Johnson

    There will not be a UK response, certainly not a military one as the Ukraine is not a member of NATO.

    Only if Russia invaded Poland or the Baltic states for example, which are NATO members, would there be a UK military response. At most there would be some economic sanctions
    You do know we are already providing arms to Ukraine
    We will not be sending ground troops, tanks or fighter jets to defend Ukraine, a non NATO member state.

    We sell arms to lots of countries
    You are off your head with this analysis. It is not just annexing Ukraine that concerns most of us it is what happens next too.

    If Putin takes Ukraine without so much as a whimper, why not all the former Soviet satellite states, plus Finland Sweden and Norway?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,508
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    BBC

    EU fears it is closer to war than ever since the break-up of ex Yugoslavia

    This is becoming very serious and real

    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1483168325538570248?t=BfsDeErSEdxW-p6Z5Y7fWg&s=19

    It’s definitely happening. Quickening slide into war this week with Russia taking their diplomats out. The discussion in this last thread convinces me all sides are up for this war, as a chance to settle old scores, as wars tend to be. Even us. As Malmesbury explained, UK are up for putting Russians and Ukrainians through the meat grinder so we can get our own back on Putin for the assassins in UK. Everyone’s up for this Proxy war, it can’t be stopped.

    This really does impact Johnson exit date Big G. A war in Europe of this magnitude and so many players, in reality a proxy war that doesn’t answer the complications of blood and soil in places like Eastern Europe, is a big big thing. I have had chat with my Dad this morning and he feels UK cannot have leadership flux with a war in Europe going on, as things could change too suddenly. I did argue we would still have Boris or Raab as PM, but he was insistent the vote of no confidence has to wait now, and he was all in favour of proper Tories taking back control a couple of weeks ago ☹️

    Looks like Tory Leadership election is postponed till after the war Big G. 😕. Too dangerous to sack a PM and have flux with this war going on. 🤷‍♀️
    Nope, we changed Prime Ministers during both world wars.

    #MyJobHereIsToTeachHistoryToPBers
    Twice in WW2
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,367
    Selebian said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Farooq said:

    Razedabode said:

    Farooq said:

    Razedabode said:

    Whilst we still talk about parties (yes, Johnson should go)

    ..for the first time today I’ve woken up thinking that Russia is going to invade Ukraine. I don’t think it’s yet dawned on many what the consequences of this will be - not least a real hardening of Eastern Europeans views against a Germany that seems to have created a reliance on Russia, whilst sacrificing European security as a whole

    Whatever you think of Germany's energy policy, there is no way, none at all, in which you can possibly blame Russian aggression on Germany. Russia is the bad guy here, let's keep that absolutely clear.
    …I fail to see how a Germany that has developed an energy policy based solely on the import of gas from Russia isn’t part of the problem.
    It certainly isn't part of the problem. It DOES make the solution more difficult, but first and foremost this is Russian aggression.
    It's really not helpful to tacitly excuse the aggression with the idea that Germany's error (for that's what it is) has "sacrificed" security. You make it sound like everything was fine before and then it wasn't and it's all Germany's fault. Russia's aggressive stance is down to Russia alone.
    Other country's find themselves in positions of strength with regards to strategic resources without resorting to aggressive expansionist policies. If Russia can't manage it, that's Russia's fault.
    Quite. Imagine that the response to the refugee crisis was the UK threatening to invade France and taking the Pale of Calais...
    I reckon that might poll quite well, actually. We might find out under a future Patel government...
    Patel is spending money on pineapple pizzas. Other governments are paying money to militias in Libya to do this to would be immigrants...

    image
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,533
    edited January 2022
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, I think Sunak's chances are toast if he is still Chancellor come April/May time as the cost of living crisis kicks in.

    FWIW - I did hear from someone conducting a focus group in the last 48 hours that the government spin about freezing the BBC licence free as a way of reducing the cost of living.

    This point about the cost of living could indeed be a very important one for Sunak. That means he stands to lose much more from waiting than less financially visible candidates like Truss or Hunt. Against that he has to weigh up the risk of acting too soon, but he could upend things significantly if he were to resign in the next week or two, especially if the issues don't subside for Johnson somewhat after the Gray report, and there's a clear opportunity.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,394
    edited January 2022
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    BBC

    EU fears it is closer to war than ever since the break-up of ex Yugoslavia

    This is becoming very serious and real

    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1483168325538570248?t=BfsDeErSEdxW-p6Z5Y7fWg&s=19

    It’s definitely happening. Quickening slide into war this week with Russia taking their diplomats out. The discussion in this last thread convinces me all sides are up for this war, as a chance to settle old scores, as wars tend to be. Even us. As Malmesbury explained, UK are up for putting Russians and Ukrainians through the meat grinder so we can get our own back on Putin for the assassins in UK. Everyone’s up for this Proxy war, it can’t be stopped.

    This really does impact Johnson exit date Big G. A war in Europe of this magnitude and so many players, in reality a proxy war that doesn’t answer the complications of blood and soil in places like Eastern Europe, is a big big thing. I have had chat with my Dad this morning and he feels UK cannot have leadership flux with a war in Europe going on, as things could change too suddenly. I did argue we would still have Boris or Raab as PM, but he was insistent the vote of no confidence has to wait now, and he was all in favour of proper Tories taking back control a couple of weeks ago ☹️

    Looks like Tory Leadership election is postponed till after the war Big G. 😕. Too dangerous to sack a PM and have flux with this war going on. 🤷‍♀️
    Nope, we changed Prime Ministers during both world wars.

    #MyJobHereIsToTeachHistoryToPBers
    I don’t want to disagree with you, and I do enjoy being taught about history on PB as I don’t understand it all just love it.

    previous examples of PM change in war was forced, done very quickly. This is voluntarily making a PM lame duck for months and proper replacement months away. Each situation different. This situation, Tory MPs have a choice and are in two minds about it anyway.

    I know people are gutted if the leadership election isn’t going to happen and Boris stays there now because of this war. But this war in now a player in the Boris sacking. do you see the point I am making?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,515
    HYUFD said:

    FrankBooth said:

    All a bit grim but where does air power come into this? Would NATO allow Russian planes to control Ukraine airspace?

    Yes, unless they want all out war with Russia.

    NATO will just focus on ensuring Putin goes no further than Ukraine into a NATO member state like Estonia or Poland
    Just give me a wave with your appeasement treaty from the steps of your plane at Heston Aerodrome.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,904
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    eek said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, I think Sunak's chances are toast if he is still Chancellor come April/May time as the cost of living crisis kicks in.

    FWIW - I did hear from someone conducting a focus group in the last 48 hours that the government spin about freezing the BBC licence free as a way of reducing the cost of living has gone down very well.

    'It only goes up a fiver a year and that saving will help as my gas bill goes up £50 a month.'

    I assume that's meant with the sarcasm I would have attached to the statement.

    Yep 50p a month really helps pay the higher energy bill.
    Yup, more sarcastic than I display.
    I do wonder if the BBC will start announcing the programs and things that will need to go. That may focus minds a bit but the fact it's a less than 50p a month that is being discussed shows how daft the BBC licence freeze is.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,787
    MoonRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    BBC

    EU fears it is closer to war than ever since the break-up of ex Yugoslavia

    This is becoming very serious and real

    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1483168325538570248?t=BfsDeErSEdxW-p6Z5Y7fWg&s=19

    It’s definitely happening. Quickening slide into war this week with Russia taking their diplomats out. The discussion in this last thread convinces me all sides are up for this war, as a chance to settle old scores, as wars tend to be. Even us. As Malmesbury explained, UK are up for putting Russians and Ukrainians through the meat grinder so we can get our own back on Putin for the assassins in UK. Everyone’s up for this Proxy war, it can’t be stopped.

    This really does impact Johnson exit date Big G. A war in Europe of this magnitude and so many players, in reality a proxy war that doesn’t answer the complications of blood and soil in places like Eastern Europe, is a big big thing. I have had chat with my Dad this morning and he feels UK cannot have leadership flux with a war in Europe going on, as things could change too suddenly. I did argue we would still have Boris or Raab as PM, but he was insistent the vote of no confidence has to wait now, and he was all in favour of proper Tories taking back control a couple of weeks ago ☹️

    Looks like Tory Leadership election is postponed till after the war Big G. 😕. Too dangerous to sack a PM and have flux with this war going on. 🤷‍♀️
    Nope, we changed Prime Ministers during both world wars.

    #MyJobHereIsToTeachHistoryToPBers
    I don’t want to disagree with you, and I do enjoy being taught about history on PB as I don’t understand it all just love it.

    previous examples of PM change in war was forced, done very quickly. This is voluntarily making a PM lame duck for months and proper replacement months away. Each situation different. This situation, Tory MPs have a choice and are in two minds about it anyway.

    I know people are gutted if the leadership election isn’t going to happen and Boris stays there now because of this war. But this war in now a player in the Boris sacking. do you see the point I am making?
    SKS won't be gutted.

    If there is anything he can do to help keep Johnson in place, he will do it. Maybe he has some influence on Vlad?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,255
    MoonRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    BBC

    EU fears it is closer to war than ever since the break-up of ex Yugoslavia

    This is becoming very serious and real

    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1483168325538570248?t=BfsDeErSEdxW-p6Z5Y7fWg&s=19

    It’s definitely happening. Quickening slide into war this week with Russia taking their diplomats out. The discussion in this last thread convinces me all sides are up for this war, as a chance to settle old scores, as wars tend to be. Even us. As Malmesbury explained, UK are up for putting Russians and Ukrainians through the meat grinder so we can get our own back on Putin for the assassins in UK. Everyone’s up for this Proxy war, it can’t be stopped.

    This really does impact Johnson exit date Big G. A war in Europe of this magnitude and so many players, in reality a proxy war that doesn’t answer the complications of blood and soil in places like Eastern Europe, is a big big thing. I have had chat with my Dad this morning and he feels UK cannot have leadership flux with a war in Europe going on, as things could change too suddenly. I did argue we would still have Boris or Raab as PM, but he was insistent the vote of no confidence has to wait now, and he was all in favour of proper Tories taking back control a couple of weeks ago ☹️

    Looks like Tory Leadership election is postponed till after the war Big G. 😕. Too dangerous to sack a PM and have flux with this war going on. 🤷‍♀️
    Nope, we changed Prime Ministers during both world wars.

    #MyJobHereIsToTeachHistoryToPBers
    I don’t want to disagree with you, and I do enjoy being taught about history on PB as I don’t understand it all just love it.

    previous examples of PM change in war was forced, done very quickly. This is voluntarily making a PM lame duck for months and proper replacement months away. Each situation different. This situation, Tory MPs have a choice and are in two minds about it anyway.

    I know people are gutted if the leadership election isn’t going to happen and Boris stays there now because of this war. But this war in now a player in the Boris sacking. do you see the point I am making?
    Nah, take Chamberlain, he was ousted in May but still remained Leader of the Conservative Party until October, all the Prime Minister needs is to command the confidence of the majority of the House, and we have a new PM very quickly.

    #BringBackTheMagicCircle
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,255
    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Razedabode said:

    The only thing more worrying than a Russian invasion of Ukraine, is a UK response to one led by Johnson

    There will not be a UK response, certainly not a military one as the Ukraine is not a member of NATO.

    Only if Russia invaded Poland or the Baltic states for example, which are NATO members, would there be a UK military response. At most there would be some economic sanctions
    You do know we are already providing arms to Ukraine
    We will not be sending ground troops, tanks or fighter jets to defend Ukraine, a non NATO member state.

    We sell arms to lots of countries
    You are off your head with this analysis. It is not just annexing Ukraine that concerns most of us it is what happens next too.

    If Putin takes Ukraine without so much as a whimper, why not all the former Soviet satellite states, plus Finland Sweden and Norway?
    Indeed, appeasement never works, if Putin takes Ukraine then what is to stop him taking other countries?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,394
    edited January 2022
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    BBC

    EU fears it is closer to war than ever since the break-up of ex Yugoslavia

    This is becoming very serious and real

    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1483168325538570248?t=BfsDeErSEdxW-p6Z5Y7fWg&s=19

    It’s definitely happening. Quickening slide into war this week with Russia taking their diplomats out. The discussion in this last thread convinces me all sides are up for this war, as a chance to settle old scores, as wars tend to be. Even us. As Malmesbury explained, UK are up for putting Russians and Ukrainians through the meat grinder so we can get our own back on Putin for the assassins in UK. Everyone’s up for this Proxy war, it can’t be stopped.

    This really does impact Johnson exit date Big G. A war in Europe of this magnitude and so many players, in reality a proxy war that doesn’t answer the complications of blood and soil in places like Eastern Europe, is a big big thing. I have had chat with my Dad this morning and he feels UK cannot have leadership flux with a war in Europe going on, as things could change too suddenly. I did argue we would still have Boris or Raab as PM, but he was insistent the vote of no confidence has to wait now, and he was all in favour of proper Tories taking back control a couple of weeks ago ☹️

    Looks like Tory Leadership election is postponed till after the war Big G. 😕. Too dangerous to sack a PM and have flux with this war going on. 🤷‍♀️
    Nope, we changed Prime Ministers during both world wars.

    #MyJobHereIsToTeachHistoryToPBers
    Twice in WW2
    And major replacing Thatcher too is a more recent and good relevant example isn’t it?

    But the fact is that this war is now a factor in MPs minds wether to sack a PM and have lame duck PM for coming months.

    That’s a fact they now also need to consider. Don’t shoot the messenger girl! 😕
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,739
    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrankBooth said:

    All a bit grim but where does air power come into this? Would NATO allow Russian planes to control Ukraine airspace?

    Yes, unless they want all out war with Russia.

    NATO will just focus on ensuring Putin goes no further than Ukraine into a NATO member state like Estonia or Poland
    Just give me a wave with your appeasement treaty from the steps of your plane at Heston Aerodrome.
    He's not wrong though. Neither NATO or the EU will fight for Ukraine. Baldy Boring Ben has been at pains to point out that the British troops are not there to fight and they won't be staying for very long.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,539
    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrankBooth said:

    All a bit grim but where does air power come into this? Would NATO allow Russian planes to control Ukraine airspace?

    Yes, unless they want all out war with Russia.

    NATO will just focus on ensuring Putin goes no further than Ukraine into a NATO member state like Estonia or Poland
    Just give me a wave with your appeasement treaty from the steps of your plane at Heston Aerodrome.
    Chamberlain's appeasement strategy gave the UK and France time to rearm and prepare in case Hitler did go too far and invade Poland, which he eventually did. We were not ready for war when he took the Sudetenland and much of Czechosolovakia.

    See also the new Jeremy Irons' Netflix film on Chamberlain, he was more strategic than he has been portrayed
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,801
    edited January 2022
    Re cost of living...MPs getting a bit pay rise will go down like a bucket of cold sick.

    Tricky for government, as MPs are people too and are affected by cost of living as well and government obviously already in bad books with own backbenchers.

    But optics will be terrible. Public will think f##king rule breaking taking the piss PM and then all the f##kers get a pay rise
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,539
    edited January 2022
    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Razedabode said:

    The only thing more worrying than a Russian invasion of Ukraine, is a UK response to one led by Johnson

    There will not be a UK response, certainly not a military one as the Ukraine is not a member of NATO.

    Only if Russia invaded Poland or the Baltic states for example, which are NATO members, would there be a UK military response. At most there would be some economic sanctions
    You do know we are already providing arms to Ukraine
    We will not be sending ground troops, tanks or fighter jets to defend Ukraine, a non NATO member state.

    We sell arms to lots of countries
    You are off your head with this analysis. It is not just annexing Ukraine that concerns most of us it is what happens next too.

    If Putin takes Ukraine without so much as a whimper, why not all the former Soviet satellite states, plus Finland Sweden and Norway?
    Finland and Sweden are not in NATO, so we would not be obliged to defend them either.

    We would only be required to defend Norway and the Baltic states which are in NATO
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,541
    Instinct for political survival kicks in...

    More from @RishiSunak including an abrupt conclusion to the interview… https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1483409013136150533/video/1
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,277
    James O'Brien's 7 minute monologue on a prime minister riddled with scandal and corruption worth a look:

    https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1483400025581531136
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,350
    eek said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    eek said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, I think Sunak's chances are toast if he is still Chancellor come April/May time as the cost of living crisis kicks in.

    FWIW - I did hear from someone conducting a focus group in the last 48 hours that the government spin about freezing the BBC licence free as a way of reducing the cost of living has gone down very well.

    'It only goes up a fiver a year and that saving will help as my gas bill goes up £50 a month.'

    I assume that's meant with the sarcasm I would have attached to the statement.

    Yep 50p a month really helps pay the higher energy bill.
    Yup, more sarcastic than I display.
    I do wonder if the BBC will start announcing the programs and things that will need to go. That may focus minds a bit but the fact it's a less than 50p a month that is being discussed shows how daft the BBC licence freeze is.
    That’s a good call. Do what @Dura_Ace would describe as the Red Arrows playbook, whereby the brass hats put the aerobatic team high on the list of things they would cut, knowing it means more to the minister than it does to the forces.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,801
    edited January 2022
    eek said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    eek said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, I think Sunak's chances are toast if he is still Chancellor come April/May time as the cost of living crisis kicks in.

    FWIW - I did hear from someone conducting a focus group in the last 48 hours that the government spin about freezing the BBC licence free as a way of reducing the cost of living has gone down very well.

    'It only goes up a fiver a year and that saving will help as my gas bill goes up £50 a month.'

    I assume that's meant with the sarcasm I would have attached to the statement.

    Yep 50p a month really helps pay the higher energy bill.
    Yup, more sarcastic than I display.
    I do wonder if the BBC will start announcing the programs and things that will need to go. That may focus minds a bit but the fact it's a less than 50p a month that is being discussed shows how daft the BBC licence freeze is.
    They will go full back to wigan pier, they do it everytime there isn't an inflation busting rise.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,380
    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Razedabode said:

    The only thing more worrying than a Russian invasion of Ukraine, is a UK response to one led by Johnson

    There will not be a UK response, certainly not a military one as the Ukraine is not a member of NATO.

    Only if Russia invaded Poland or the Baltic states for example, which are NATO members, would there be a UK military response. At most there would be some economic sanctions
    You do know we are already providing arms to Ukraine
    We will not be sending ground troops, tanks or fighter jets to defend Ukraine, a non NATO member state.

    We sell arms to lots of countries
    You are off your head with this analysis. It is not just annexing Ukraine that concerns most of us it is what happens next too.

    If Putin takes Ukraine without so much as a whimper, why not all the former Soviet satellite states, plus Finland Sweden and Norway?
    This is a very serious issue as the UK actively supports Ukraine with the gratitude of the Baltic states while Germany prevaricates and the EU face an existential crisis between themselves in how to act

    This is not an anti EU comment but this could cause very serious damage to EU unity which we all need and want on something as serious as a possible war in Europe
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,104
    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Razedabode said:

    The only thing more worrying than a Russian invasion of Ukraine, is a UK response to one led by Johnson

    There will not be a UK response, certainly not a military one as the Ukraine is not a member of NATO.

    Only if Russia invaded Poland or the Baltic states for example, which are NATO members, would there be a UK military response. At most there would be some economic sanctions
    You do know we are already providing arms to Ukraine
    We will not be sending ground troops, tanks or fighter jets to defend Ukraine, a non NATO member state.

    We sell arms to lots of countries
    You are off your head with this analysis. It is not just annexing Ukraine that concerns most of us it is what happens next too.

    If Putin takes Ukraine without so much as a whimper, why not all the former Soviet satellite states, plus Finland Sweden and Norway?
    The essential point, surely, is NATO membership. Many of the former Soviet satellite states are now NATO members including the three Baltic states. According to reports, there is now a very real debate in both Finland and Sweden about joining NATO and ending their decades' long policy of neutrality. Putin will not invade a NATO state but, equally, NATO won't go to war to defend Ukraine.

    The sending of military supplies etc to Ukraine is designed to make Putin think twice. It does raise the ante and its good to see the UK acting decisively.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,726
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    BBC

    EU fears it is closer to war than ever since the break-up of ex Yugoslavia

    This is becoming very serious and real

    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1483168325538570248?t=BfsDeErSEdxW-p6Z5Y7fWg&s=19

    It’s definitely happening. Quickening slide into war this week with Russia taking their diplomats out. The discussion in this last thread convinces me all sides are up for this war, as a chance to settle old scores, as wars tend to be. Even us. As Malmesbury explained, UK are up for putting Russians and Ukrainians through the meat grinder so we can get our own back on Putin for the assassins in UK. Everyone’s up for this Proxy war, it can’t be stopped.

    This really does impact Johnson exit date Big G. A war in Europe of this magnitude and so many players, in reality a proxy war that doesn’t answer the complications of blood and soil in places like Eastern Europe, is a big big thing. I have had chat with my Dad this morning and he feels UK cannot have leadership flux with a war in Europe going on, as things could change too suddenly. I did argue we would still have Boris or Raab as PM, but he was insistent the vote of no confidence has to wait now, and he was all in favour of proper Tories taking back control a couple of weeks ago ☹️

    Looks like Tory Leadership election is postponed till after the war Big G. 😕. Too dangerous to sack a PM and have flux with this war going on. 🤷‍♀️
    Nope, we changed Prime Ministers during both world wars.

    #MyJobHereIsToTeachHistoryToPBers
    Also, if there is a major war, do you really want Johnson leading the country through it?
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,118
    HYUFD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrankBooth said:

    All a bit grim but where does air power come into this? Would NATO allow Russian planes to control Ukraine airspace?

    Yes, unless they want all out war with Russia.

    NATO will just focus on ensuring Putin goes no further than Ukraine into a NATO member state like Estonia or Poland
    Just give me a wave with your appeasement treaty from the steps of your plane at Heston Aerodrome.
    Chamberlain's appeasement strategy gave the UK and France time to rearm and prepare in case Hitler did go too far and invade Poland, which he eventually did. We were not ready for war when he took the Sudetenland and much of Czechosolovakia.

    See also the new Jeremy Irons' Netflix film on Chamberlain, he was more strategic than he has been portrayed
    Handy rewriting of history there.

    Chamberlains policy was absolutely to prevent war - hence appeasement. It wasn’t a master plan to “somehow buy time”
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,350
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Re cost of living...MPs getting a bit pay rise will go down like a bucket of cold sick.

    Tricky for government, as MPs are people too and are affected by cost of living as well and government obviously already in bad books with own backbenchers.

    But optics will be terrible. Public will think f##king rule breaking taking the piss PM and then all the f##kers get a pay rise

    Yep, that could be a real crunch point with the backbenchers. Starmer has already come out against it, even though the process is now automated and nothing to do with the MPs any more.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,277
    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    eek said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, I think Sunak's chances are toast if he is still Chancellor come April/May time as the cost of living crisis kicks in.

    FWIW - I did hear from someone conducting a focus group in the last 48 hours that the government spin about freezing the BBC licence free as a way of reducing the cost of living has gone down very well.

    'It only goes up a fiver a year and that saving will help as my gas bill goes up £50 a month.'

    I assume that's meant with the sarcasm I would have attached to the statement.

    Yep 50p a month really helps pay the higher energy bill.
    Yup, more sarcastic than I display.
    I do wonder if the BBC will start announcing the programs and things that will need to go. That may focus minds a bit but the fact it's a less than 50p a month that is being discussed shows how daft the BBC licence freeze is.
    That’s a good call. Do what @Dura_Ace would describe as the Red Arrows playbook, whereby the brass hats put the aerobatic team high on the list of things they would cut, knowing it means more to the minister than it does to the forces.
    Yep. We know how this will go.

    I doubt anyone in DCMS actually believes in any of this. It was just something, anything, to throw at Tory back bench to stave off a leadership bid.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,515
    HYUFD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrankBooth said:

    All a bit grim but where does air power come into this? Would NATO allow Russian planes to control Ukraine airspace?

    Yes, unless they want all out war with Russia.

    NATO will just focus on ensuring Putin goes no further than Ukraine into a NATO member state like Estonia or Poland
    Just give me a wave with your appeasement treaty from the steps of your plane at Heston Aerodrome.
    Chamberlain's appeasement strategy gave the UK and France time to rearm and prepare in case Hitler did go too far and invade Poland, which he eventually did. We were not ready for war when he took the Sudetenland and much of Czechosolovakia.

    See also the new Jeremy Irons' Netflix film on Chamberlain, he was more strategic than he has been portrayed
    HYUFD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Razedabode said:

    The only thing more worrying than a Russian invasion of Ukraine, is a UK response to one led by Johnson

    There will not be a UK response, certainly not a military one as the Ukraine is not a member of NATO.

    Only if Russia invaded Poland or the Baltic states for example, which are NATO members, would there be a UK military response. At most there would be some economic sanctions
    You do know we are already providing arms to Ukraine
    We will not be sending ground troops, tanks or fighter jets to defend Ukraine, a non NATO member state.

    We sell arms to lots of countries
    You are off your head with this analysis. It is not just annexing Ukraine that concerns most of us it is what happens next too.

    If Putin takes Ukraine without so much as a whimper, why not all the former Soviet satellite states, plus Finland Sweden and Norway?
    Finland and Sweden are not in NATO, so we would not be obliged to defend them either.

    We would only be required to defend Norway and the Baltic states which are in NATO
    You are quite bonkers! When the Russian Army marches through Europe do you think it stops at Calais and Putin thinks "job done"!
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,155
    The % s in the article add up to 78, between 7 runners, leaving a 22% chance of it being someone outside the 7 listed, none of whom can have more than 4% support; meaning there are lots of others with a backable chance.

    I think this may be overdoing the outsiders chances rather.

    Slightly under rated are those prominent in the betting but not currently in government. The biggest threat to Rishi and others will be the problem of the fact they are unavoidably tainted and at risk from the fallout of the current farrago. If DC has killer stuff on Boris, who has what stuff on the rest of the current government? It feels impossible that the answer in 'no-one' and 'nothing'. Hunt and Tugendhat are unlikely but value.

    A 'Foinavon' result is still just about possible.

    Worst value are those in government but rubbish. take your pick. Except of course that the Tory membership could do almost anything. They could even choose Steve Baker.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,541
    eek said:

    I do wonder if the BBC will start announcing the programs and things that will need to go. That may focus minds a bit but the fact it's a less than 50p a month that is being discussed shows how daft the BBC licence freeze is.

    I gather the Tories have decided to pick a fight with Strictly Come Dancing and abolish Match of the Day. Brilliant. Why has this Culture Secretary been in obscurity so long? This is surely genius.
    https://twitter.com/PhilipJCollins1/status/1483370420241842177
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,539
    edited January 2022
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Re cost of living...MPs getting a bit pay rise will go down like a bucket of cold sick.

    Tricky for government, as MPs are people too and are affected by cost of living as well and government obviously already in bad books with own backbenchers.

    But optics will be terrible. Public will think f##king rule breaking taking the piss PM and then all the f##kers get a pay rise

    Average wages are currently rising at 3.8% a year. MPs pay was frozen last year. It should at least rise in line with the 2.7% public sector pay is growing by at the moment. Being an MP of course a public sector job.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60035312
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/10/mps-should-not-get-pay-rise-says-keir-starmer
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,539
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Razedabode said:

    The only thing more worrying than a Russian invasion of Ukraine, is a UK response to one led by Johnson

    There will not be a UK response, certainly not a military one as the Ukraine is not a member of NATO.

    Only if Russia invaded Poland or the Baltic states for example, which are NATO members, would there be a UK military response. At most there would be some economic sanctions
    You do know we are already providing arms to Ukraine
    We will not be sending ground troops, tanks or fighter jets to defend Ukraine, a non NATO member state.

    We sell arms to lots of countries
    You are quite ridiculous

    We are not selling arms to Ukraine we are flying them in on C-17s avoiding German airspace

    Any attack by Russia on Ukraine will provoke retaliation by NATO

    On a personal note my daughter in law in Vancouver and her family are all Ukraine
    No it will not.

    There will be no tanks or NATO troops sent to Ukraine. It is not a NATO member state.

    Russia also has a veto power on the UN Security Council so there are limits on what the UN can do too unless overwhelming agreement in the UN general assembly for sanctions on Russia.

    You haven't a clue about geopolitics

    Indeed we have military advisers there already

    Maybe this will help your ignorance

    BBC News - Russia-Ukraine crisis: UK sending weapons to defend Ukraine, says defence secretary

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60033012
    Where does that say we are sending UK troops to Ukraine?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,801
    HYUFD said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Re cost of living...MPs getting a bit pay rise will go down like a bucket of cold sick.

    Tricky for government, as MPs are people too and are affected by cost of living as well and government obviously already in bad books with own backbenchers.

    But optics will be terrible. Public will think f##king rule breaking taking the piss PM and then all the f##kers get a pay rise

    Average wages are currently rising at 3.8% a year. MPs pay was frozen last year. It should at least rise in line with the 2.7% public sector pay is growing by at the moment. Being an MP of course a public sector job.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60035312
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/10/mps-should-not-get-pay-rise-says-keir-starmer
    Ita the optics of it, not the reality. I personally never thought MPs get paid too much, i think their pay is perfectly reasonable, in fact likes of PM salary is far too low.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,541
    Rishi Sunak not lingering after his brief interview. Walked off so fast he was still miked up, with the question ‘Do you support the PM unequivocally?’ left hanging https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1483413428836442116/photo/1
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,394
    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Razedabode said:

    The only thing more worrying than a Russian invasion of Ukraine, is a UK response to one led by Johnson

    There will not be a UK response, certainly not a military one as the Ukraine is not a member of NATO.

    Only if Russia invaded Poland or the Baltic states for example, which are NATO members, would there be a UK military response. At most there would be some economic sanctions
    You do know we are already providing arms to Ukraine
    We will not be sending ground troops, tanks or fighter jets to defend Ukraine, a non NATO member state.

    We sell arms to lots of countries
    You are quite ridiculous

    We are not selling arms to Ukraine we are flying them in on C-17s avoiding German airspace

    Any attack by Russia on Ukraine will provoke retaliation by NATO

    On a personal note my daughter in law in Vancouver and her family are all Ukraine
    No it will not.

    There will be no tanks or NATO troops sent to Ukraine. It is not a NATO member state.

    Russia also has a veto power on the UN Security Council so there are limits on what the UN can do too unless overwhelming agreement in the UN general assembly for sanctions on Russia.

    You haven't a clue about geopolitics

    Indeed we have military advisers there already

    Maybe this will help your ignorance

    BBC News - Russia-Ukraine crisis: UK sending weapons to defend Ukraine, says defence secretary

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60033012
    Where does that say we are sending UK troops to Ukraine?
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10411583/UK-says-supplying-Ukraine-weapons-defend-against-Russia.html
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,277
    edited January 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    Instinct for political survival kicks in...

    More from @RishiSunak including an abrupt conclusion to the interview… https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1483409013136150533/video/1

    Journo was extremely decent there as he reminded Sunak, as he fled, that he was still live miked.

    Could have been another 'Gordon Brown and bigoted woman' moment otherwise.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,380
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Re cost of living...MPs getting a bit pay rise will go down like a bucket of cold sick.

    Tricky for government, as MPs are people too and are affected by cost of living as well and government obviously already in bad books with own backbenchers.

    But optics will be terrible. Public will think f##king rule breaking taking the piss PM and then all the f##kers get a pay rise

    I believe Boris has said he is against the rise
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,726
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Re cost of living...MPs getting a bit pay rise will go down like a bucket of cold sick.

    Tricky for government, as MPs are people too and are affected by cost of living as well and government obviously already in bad books with own backbenchers.

    But optics will be terrible. Public will think f##king rule breaking taking the piss PM and then all the f##kers get a pay rise

    Could they spin it as being their policy for high inflation?

    "We expect all employers to increase pay by at least the inflation rate."

    (So that fiscal drag can increase the tax take)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,539
    MoonRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Razedabode said:

    The only thing more worrying than a Russian invasion of Ukraine, is a UK response to one led by Johnson

    There will not be a UK response, certainly not a military one as the Ukraine is not a member of NATO.

    Only if Russia invaded Poland or the Baltic states for example, which are NATO members, would there be a UK military response. At most there would be some economic sanctions
    You do know we are already providing arms to Ukraine
    We will not be sending ground troops, tanks or fighter jets to defend Ukraine, a non NATO member state.

    We sell arms to lots of countries
    You are quite ridiculous

    We are not selling arms to Ukraine we are flying them in on C-17s avoiding German airspace

    Any attack by Russia on Ukraine will provoke retaliation by NATO

    On a personal note my daughter in law in Vancouver and her family are all Ukraine
    No it will not.

    There will be no tanks or NATO troops sent to Ukraine. It is not a NATO member state.

    Russia also has a veto power on the UN Security Council so there are limits on what the UN can do too unless overwhelming agreement in the UN general assembly for sanctions on Russia.

    You haven't a clue about geopolitics

    Indeed we have military advisers there already

    Maybe this will help your ignorance

    BBC News - Russia-Ukraine crisis: UK sending weapons to defend Ukraine, says defence secretary

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60033012
    Where does that say we are sending UK troops to Ukraine?
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10411583/UK-says-supplying-Ukraine-weapons-defend-against-Russia.html
    A few military trainers, if Russia does invade we will not be sending large numbers of regiments to Ukraine.

    We might send them to Estonia, Latvia and Poland to contain Putin, we will not send them to start an all out war with Russia
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,801
    edited January 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    eek said:

    I do wonder if the BBC will start announcing the programs and things that will need to go. That may focus minds a bit but the fact it's a less than 50p a month that is being discussed shows how daft the BBC licence freeze is.

    I gather the Tories have decided to pick a fight with Strictly Come Dancing and abolish Match of the Day. Brilliant. Why has this Culture Secretary been in obscurity so long? This is surely genius.
    https://twitter.com/PhilipJCollins1/status/1483370420241842177
    Well the BBC could always hire MOTD presenters on more modest salaries. The talking heads on a million quid a year who are clueless about the modern game. You could hire the full Tifo football staff for that, who actually understand modern tactics, rather than the shit they talk of MOTD.

    And of course they are going to junk the likes of Strictly, that thing that makes them masses of money.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,539
    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrankBooth said:

    All a bit grim but where does air power come into this? Would NATO allow Russian planes to control Ukraine airspace?

    Yes, unless they want all out war with Russia.

    NATO will just focus on ensuring Putin goes no further than Ukraine into a NATO member state like Estonia or Poland
    Just give me a wave with your appeasement treaty from the steps of your plane at Heston Aerodrome.
    Chamberlain's appeasement strategy gave the UK and France time to rearm and prepare in case Hitler did go too far and invade Poland, which he eventually did. We were not ready for war when he took the Sudetenland and much of Czechosolovakia.

    See also the new Jeremy Irons' Netflix film on Chamberlain, he was more strategic than he has been portrayed
    HYUFD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Razedabode said:

    The only thing more worrying than a Russian invasion of Ukraine, is a UK response to one led by Johnson

    There will not be a UK response, certainly not a military one as the Ukraine is not a member of NATO.

    Only if Russia invaded Poland or the Baltic states for example, which are NATO members, would there be a UK military response. At most there would be some economic sanctions
    You do know we are already providing arms to Ukraine
    We will not be sending ground troops, tanks or fighter jets to defend Ukraine, a non NATO member state.

    We sell arms to lots of countries
    You are off your head with this analysis. It is not just annexing Ukraine that concerns most of us it is what happens next too.

    If Putin takes Ukraine without so much as a whimper, why not all the former Soviet satellite states, plus Finland Sweden and Norway?
    Finland and Sweden are not in NATO, so we would not be obliged to defend them either.

    We would only be required to defend Norway and the Baltic states which are in NATO
    You are quite bonkers! When the Russian Army marches through Europe do you think it stops at Calais and Putin thinks "job done"!
    France has nuclear weapons, I think we and the French at least are pretty safe from Putin.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,541
    🥂 Last week the foreign secretary hosted a group of Scottish Conservative MPs in her office, according to sources
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/liz-truss-tory-leadership-schmooze-operation-as-boris-johnsons-popularity-plummets
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,277
    HYUFD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrankBooth said:

    All a bit grim but where does air power come into this? Would NATO allow Russian planes to control Ukraine airspace?

    Yes, unless they want all out war with Russia.

    NATO will just focus on ensuring Putin goes no further than Ukraine into a NATO member state like Estonia or Poland
    Just give me a wave with your appeasement treaty from the steps of your plane at Heston Aerodrome.
    Chamberlain's appeasement strategy gave the UK and France time to rearm and prepare in case Hitler did go too far and invade Poland, which he eventually did. We were not ready for war when he took the Sudetenland and much of Czechosolovakia.

    See also the new Jeremy Irons' Netflix film on Chamberlain, he was more strategic than he has been portrayed
    Have you seen it on Netflix? I looked on Sunday evening and only the trailer was on there.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,394
    HYUFD said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Razedabode said:

    The only thing more worrying than a Russian invasion of Ukraine, is a UK response to one led by Johnson

    There will not be a UK response, certainly not a military one as the Ukraine is not a member of NATO.

    Only if Russia invaded Poland or the Baltic states for example, which are NATO members, would there be a UK military response. At most there would be some economic sanctions
    You do know we are already providing arms to Ukraine
    We will not be sending ground troops, tanks or fighter jets to defend Ukraine, a non NATO member state.

    We sell arms to lots of countries
    You are quite ridiculous

    We are not selling arms to Ukraine we are flying them in on C-17s avoiding German airspace

    Any attack by Russia on Ukraine will provoke retaliation by NATO

    On a personal note my daughter in law in Vancouver and her family are all Ukraine
    No it will not.

    There will be no tanks or NATO troops sent to Ukraine. It is not a NATO member state.

    Russia also has a veto power on the UN Security Council so there are limits on what the UN can do too unless overwhelming agreement in the UN general assembly for sanctions on Russia.

    You haven't a clue about geopolitics

    Indeed we have military advisers there already

    Maybe this will help your ignorance

    BBC News - Russia-Ukraine crisis: UK sending weapons to defend Ukraine, says defence secretary

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60033012
    Where does that say we are sending UK troops to Ukraine?
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10411583/UK-says-supplying-Ukraine-weapons-defend-against-Russia.html
    A few military trainers, if Russia does invade we will not be sending large numbers of regiments to Ukraine.

    We might send them to Estonia, Latvia and Poland to contain Putin, we will not send them to start an all out war with Russia
    You have’t mentioned Boris war leader bounce yet.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,515
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Razedabode said:

    The only thing more worrying than a Russian invasion of Ukraine, is a UK response to one led by Johnson

    There will not be a UK response, certainly not a military one as the Ukraine is not a member of NATO.

    Only if Russia invaded Poland or the Baltic states for example, which are NATO members, would there be a UK military response. At most there would be some economic sanctions
    You do know we are already providing arms to Ukraine
    We will not be sending ground troops, tanks or fighter jets to defend Ukraine, a non NATO member state.

    We sell arms to lots of countries
    You are off your head with this analysis. It is not just annexing Ukraine that concerns most of us it is what happens next too.

    If Putin takes Ukraine without so much as a whimper, why not all the former Soviet satellite states, plus Finland Sweden and Norway?
    This is a very serious issue as the UK actively supports Ukraine with the gratitude of the Baltic states while Germany prevaricates and the EU face an existential crisis between themselves in how to act

    This is not an anti EU comment but this could cause very serious damage to EU unity which we all need and want on something as serious as a possible war in Europe
    I was keen not to leave the EU, but I am not keen enough to desire our re-unification with the EU states under the flag of the Russian Federation.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,539
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Scott_xP said:

    eek said:

    I do wonder if the BBC will start announcing the programs and things that will need to go. That may focus minds a bit but the fact it's a less than 50p a month that is being discussed shows how daft the BBC licence freeze is.

    I gather the Tories have decided to pick a fight with Strictly Come Dancing and abolish Match of the Day. Brilliant. Why has this Culture Secretary been in obscurity so long? This is surely genius.
    https://twitter.com/PhilipJCollins1/status/1483370420241842177
    Well the BBC could always hire MOTD presenters on more modest salaries. The talking heads on a million quid a year who are clueless about the modern game. You could hire the full Tifo football staff for that.

    And of course they are going to junk the likes of Strictly, that thing that makes them masses of money.
    Strictly would be the only programme the BBC had left even if they junked everything else yes
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,884
    Scott_xP said:

    🥂 Last week the foreign secretary hosted a group of Scottish Conservative MPs in her office, according to sources
    https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/liz-truss-tory-leadership-schmooze-operation-as-boris-johnsons-popularity-plummets

    That's maybe 13; only another 160-odd to go.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,367
    Razedabode said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrankBooth said:

    All a bit grim but where does air power come into this? Would NATO allow Russian planes to control Ukraine airspace?

    Yes, unless they want all out war with Russia.

    NATO will just focus on ensuring Putin goes no further than Ukraine into a NATO member state like Estonia or Poland
    Just give me a wave with your appeasement treaty from the steps of your plane at Heston Aerodrome.
    Chamberlain's appeasement strategy gave the UK and France time to rearm and prepare in case Hitler did go too far and invade Poland, which he eventually did. We were not ready for war when he took the Sudetenland and much of Czechosolovakia.

    See also the new Jeremy Irons' Netflix film on Chamberlain, he was more strategic than he has been portrayed
    Handy rewriting of history there.

    Chamberlains policy was absolutely to prevent war - hence appeasement. It wasn’t a master plan to “somehow buy time”
    The various diaries and meeting minutes from the time make clear that Chamberlin was less than convinced that Hitler would limit himself to the Munich agreement.

    The issue about preparedness for war was brought up a number of times - Germany was believed to be stronger in the air (especially) at that point.

    The UK re-armament plan was predicted on being ready for war by the end of 1941 - the German plans were, quite obviously from the naval point of view, aiming for war in 1942.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,523
    Razedabode said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrankBooth said:

    All a bit grim but where does air power come into this? Would NATO allow Russian planes to control Ukraine airspace?

    Yes, unless they want all out war with Russia.

    NATO will just focus on ensuring Putin goes no further than Ukraine into a NATO member state like Estonia or Poland
    Just give me a wave with your appeasement treaty from the steps of your plane at Heston Aerodrome.
    Chamberlain's appeasement strategy gave the UK and France time to rearm and prepare in case Hitler did go too far and invade Poland, which he eventually did. We were not ready for war when he took the Sudetenland and much of Czechosolovakia.

    See also the new Jeremy Irons' Netflix film on Chamberlain, he was more strategic than he has been portrayed
    Handy rewriting of history there.

    Chamberlains policy was absolutely to prevent war - hence appeasement. It wasn’t a master plan to “somehow buy time”
    It's an interesting point to debate. Which is true in Chamberlain's case seems to depend on whether you are for or against him.

    It's perfectly possible for both to be true: "I'd love to avoid war, but if we have to go to war, best if it is delayed so we can build up our forces. If we go to war today we're ******."
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,539
    rottenborough said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrankBooth said:

    All a bit grim but where does air power come into this? Would NATO allow Russian planes to control Ukraine airspace?

    Yes, unless they want all out war with Russia.

    NATO will just focus on ensuring Putin goes no further than Ukraine into a NATO member state like Estonia or Poland
    Just give me a wave with your appeasement treaty from the steps of your plane at Heston Aerodrome.
    Chamberlain's appeasement strategy gave the UK and France time to rearm and prepare in case Hitler did go too far and invade Poland, which he eventually did. We were not ready for war when he took the Sudetenland and much of Czechosolovakia.

    See also the new Jeremy Irons' Netflix film on Chamberlain, he was more strategic than he has been portrayed
    Have you seen it on Netflix? I looked on Sunday evening and only the trailer was on there.
    It does not come out until this weekend
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,739
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Re cost of living...MPs getting a bit pay rise will go down like a bucket of cold sick.

    Tricky for government, as MPs are people too and are affected by cost of living as well and government obviously already in bad books with own backbenchers.

    But optics will be terrible. Public will think f##king rule breaking taking the piss PM and then all the f##kers get a pay rise

    I believe Boris has said he is against the rise
    So you're telling us that he's actually for it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,277
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MoonRabbit said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    BBC

    EU fears it is closer to war than ever since the break-up of ex Yugoslavia

    This is becoming very serious and real

    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1483168325538570248?t=BfsDeErSEdxW-p6Z5Y7fWg&s=19

    It’s definitely happening. Quickening slide into war this week with Russia taking their diplomats out. The discussion in this last thread convinces me all sides are up for this war, as a chance to settle old scores, as wars tend to be. Even us. As Malmesbury explained, UK are up for putting Russians and Ukrainians through the meat grinder so we can get our own back on Putin for the assassins in UK. Everyone’s up for this Proxy war, it can’t be stopped.

    This really does impact Johnson exit date Big G. A war in Europe of this magnitude and so many players, in reality a proxy war that doesn’t answer the complications of blood and soil in places like Eastern Europe, is a big big thing. I have had chat with my Dad this morning and he feels UK cannot have leadership flux with a war in Europe going on, as things could change too suddenly. I did argue we would still have Boris or Raab as PM, but he was insistent the vote of no confidence has to wait now, and he was all in favour of proper Tories taking back control a couple of weeks ago ☹️

    Looks like Tory Leadership election is postponed till after the war Big G. 😕. Too dangerous to sack a PM and have flux with this war going on. 🤷‍♀️
    Nope, we changed Prime Ministers during both world wars.

    #MyJobHereIsToTeachHistoryToPBers
    I don’t want to disagree with you, and I do enjoy being taught about history on PB as I don’t understand it all just love it.

    previous examples of PM change in war was forced, done very quickly. This is voluntarily making a PM lame duck for months and proper replacement months away. Each situation different. This situation, Tory MPs have a choice and are in two minds about it anyway.

    I know people are gutted if the leadership election isn’t going to happen and Boris stays there now because of this war. But this war in now a player in the Boris sacking. do you see the point I am making?
    Nah, take Chamberlain, he was ousted in May but still remained Leader of the Conservative Party until October, all the Prime Minister needs is to command the confidence of the majority of the House, and we have a new PM very quickly.

    #BringBackTheMagicCircle
    The PMs who were ousted during war fell because the respective wars were going badly. So I don't think you can use that as a reason to say Johnson will fall just as we go into a war in Ukraine. Maybe after six weeks and it's a clusterfeck from UK point of view, if we are involved, god forbid some how or other.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,904
    rottenborough said:

    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    eek said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic, I think Sunak's chances are toast if he is still Chancellor come April/May time as the cost of living crisis kicks in.

    FWIW - I did hear from someone conducting a focus group in the last 48 hours that the government spin about freezing the BBC licence free as a way of reducing the cost of living has gone down very well.

    'It only goes up a fiver a year and that saving will help as my gas bill goes up £50 a month.'

    I assume that's meant with the sarcasm I would have attached to the statement.

    Yep 50p a month really helps pay the higher energy bill.
    Yup, more sarcastic than I display.
    I do wonder if the BBC will start announcing the programs and things that will need to go. That may focus minds a bit but the fact it's a less than 50p a month that is being discussed shows how daft the BBC licence freeze is.
    That’s a good call. Do what @Dura_Ace would describe as the Red Arrows playbook, whereby the brass hats put the aerobatic team high on the list of things they would cut, knowing it means more to the minister than it does to the forces.
    Yep. We know how this will go.

    I doubt anyone in DCMS actually believes in any of this. It was just something, anything, to throw at Tory back bench to stave off a leadership bid.
    The damage has been done though - how do you reverse the licence fee freeze now it's been officially announced?

    The great thing is the BBC can randomly cut anything and attach Nadine's name to it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,541
    Asked whether the Prime Minister had ever lied to the House, his official spokesman simply said: “No.”

    (Extraordinary times...remember the days when we wouldn't touch the "L" word with a barge pole?!)

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/lying-dominic-cummings-boris-johnson_uk_61e68b03e4b0c6802eeb6440?utm_campaign=share_twitter&ncid=engmodushpmg00000004
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,515
    HYUFD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    FrankBooth said:

    All a bit grim but where does air power come into this? Would NATO allow Russian planes to control Ukraine airspace?

    Yes, unless they want all out war with Russia.

    NATO will just focus on ensuring Putin goes no further than Ukraine into a NATO member state like Estonia or Poland
    Just give me a wave with your appeasement treaty from the steps of your plane at Heston Aerodrome.
    Chamberlain's appeasement strategy gave the UK and France time to rearm and prepare in case Hitler did go too far and invade Poland, which he eventually did. We were not ready for war when he took the Sudetenland and much of Czechosolovakia.

    See also the new Jeremy Irons' Netflix film on Chamberlain, he was more strategic than he has been portrayed
    HYUFD said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    Razedabode said:

    The only thing more worrying than a Russian invasion of Ukraine, is a UK response to one led by Johnson

    There will not be a UK response, certainly not a military one as the Ukraine is not a member of NATO.

    Only if Russia invaded Poland or the Baltic states for example, which are NATO members, would there be a UK military response. At most there would be some economic sanctions
    You do know we are already providing arms to Ukraine
    We will not be sending ground troops, tanks or fighter jets to defend Ukraine, a non NATO member state.

    We sell arms to lots of countries
    You are off your head with this analysis. It is not just annexing Ukraine that concerns most of us it is what happens next too.

    If Putin takes Ukraine without so much as a whimper, why not all the former Soviet satellite states, plus Finland Sweden and Norway?
    Finland and Sweden are not in NATO, so we would not be obliged to defend them either.

    We would only be required to defend Norway and the Baltic states which are in NATO
    You are quite bonkers! When the Russian Army marches through Europe do you think it stops at Calais and Putin thinks "job done"!
    France has nuclear weapons, I think we and the French at least are pretty safe from Putin.
    If it gets to the point of mutual nuclear annihilation we are all f*****!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,277
    Dura_Ace said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Re cost of living...MPs getting a bit pay rise will go down like a bucket of cold sick.

    Tricky for government, as MPs are people too and are affected by cost of living as well and government obviously already in bad books with own backbenchers.

    But optics will be terrible. Public will think f##king rule breaking taking the piss PM and then all the f##kers get a pay rise

    I believe Boris has said he is against the rise
    So you're telling us that he's actually for it.
    He's implicitly against it.
This discussion has been closed.

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