politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP Clacton price the big mover in today’s political betti
Inevitably given the Survation Clacton poll the big mover has been the UKIP by-election price – now rated as an 88% chance.
Comments
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Deja vu all over again. Concede v v early to top 4 'rival'.... now exposed to counter attack for rest of the game.0
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People voting ukip, getting Miliband. You asked for it!0
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If Yes win the referendum for Scotland how much will the betting fraternity lose?0
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Thinking of the numbers on this is staggering.
The "1400" number in Rotherham was considered a "conservative" estimate. It's probably closer to 2000 or 2500. But let's assume Rotherham was one of the worst examples and the average town where this happened had just 700 abuse victims - half the 'conservative' Rotherham level.
The most horrific instances of abuse involved girls being prostituted out to men across a broad area. This could mean a dozen rapes in a night, whether the men came consecutively or gang raped her. If this happened a few times a week, then it's well possible some girls got raped a thousand times in a year. On the low side, girls more marginally on the edge of this might have just been targeted about once a month by a group of guys. That's still likely to be about 50 rapes a year if four or five rapists were involved. 100 rapes per year of an average victim seems conservative.
The youngest girls were targeted at 11 or 12. They seem to have been dropped by these gangs by the time they were 15 or 16. Given that some girls may have escaped after a shorter period of time, let's estimate the average period of abuse was probably about three years.
We are currently aware of this model of abuse definitely happening in Barking, Birmingham, Blackburn, Blackpool, Bradford, Derby, Ipswich, Keighley, Manchester, Nelson, Oldham, Oxford, Peterborough, Preston, Rochdale, Sheffield, Skipton and Telford in addition to Rotherham itself. I've also heard anecdotal reports on here about Tower Hamlets, Worcester and Luton. But let's keep ourselves grounded and and assume it only took place in the 19 towns mentioned.
700 victims per town x 100 rapes a year x three years' of abuse per victim x 19 towns.
Just under four million rapes. And this in a deliberate effort to scale down the numbers.
FOUR MILLION CHILD RAPES.
Four million rapes neglected or covered up by the establishment for fear of upsetting community sensitivities. And that's before we get to the torture, the psychological warfare and the outright murders.
People like Nick Palmer have said I seem to be too angry to engage with. But isn't four million child rapes the sort of thing that it's justified to get angry about? This must surely be the worst thing that has happened to our country since the Second World War.0 -
FPT:
Just to be clear. You are accusing Better Together of staging the Murphy assault?malcolmg said:
when you stage something you do not want your helper arrested, they have clear pictures but bet it never happens.CarlottaVance said:
Good to read an arrest has been made - which is more than appears to have happened in the Murphy assault.malcolmg said:half the story almost reported
http://www.scotsman.com/news/scotland/top-stories/man-held-over-assault-after-yes-no-confrontation-1-3526187
And the Yes Twitter campaign - or was that just a coincidence?
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Ten men were charged almost a year ago in Coventry, also. Oddly I can find no record of them being either convicted or acquitted: http://www.coventrytelegraph.net/news/coventry-news/ten-charged-coventry-sex-gang-5429952Socrates said:We are currently aware of this model of abuse definitely happening in Barking, Birmingham, Blackburn, Blackpool, Bradford, Derby, Ipswich, Keighley, Manchester, Nelson, Oldham, Oxford, Peterborough, Preston, Rochdale, Sheffield, Skipton and Telford in addition to Rotherham itself. I've also heard anecdotal reports on here about Tower Hamlets, Worcester and Luton. But let's keep ourselves grounded and and assume it only took place in the 19 towns mentioned.
You can probably add the Dewsbury/Batley conurbation, unless it was just being used as a bolt-hole for gangs from elsewhere: http://www.examiner.co.uk/news/west-yorkshire-news/kirklees-hotel-loses-licence-after-4884287
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Haven't the polls consistently shown that UKIP voters would be as happy with Labour as with the Tories?perdix said:People voting ukip, getting Miliband. You asked for it!
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The tory supporters on here don't seem to get the fact that people who left the party because of Cameron, don't want Cameron as PM... if they did, they wouldn't have leftStereotomy said:
Haven't the polls consistently shown that UKIP voters would be as happy with Labour as with the Tories?perdix said:People voting ukip, getting Miliband. You asked for it!
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The IndyRef move will no doubt be ascribed to "pick your own derogatory epithet" London Unionists....0
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Teenage girls raped in the Rotherham child sex abuse scandal gave birth to more than 100 babies.
Scores more children as young as 13 miscarried or were forced to have abortions after attacks by Asian gangs on 1,400 girls.
One victim, who got pregnant TWICE to the same attacker, said: “I was groomed and abused, but the police took no action.”
The vulnerable youngster had an abortion at just 14 when her abuser threatened to have her killed if she gave birth to his baby.
Then he made her pregnant again just six months later – and allowed her to keep her child, but only if she became a Muslim.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/rotherham-child-sex-scandal-resulted-41375420 -
Scotland voting NO will also make it easier for Ed to win.perdix said:People voting ukip, getting Miliband. You asked for it!
Be careful what you wish for!0 -
@Socrates
"People like Nick Palmer have said I seem to be too angry to engage with."
Well of course you are, you keep raising facts that the establishment don't want raised. They cannot deny the facts so they label the person raising them. This was a well known tactic in the Soviet union in the 70's and 80s. A person of credibility who raised an inconvenient fact that could not be credibly refuted was labelled, anti-social or some other nonsense name. If he/she persisted he/she was deemed insane and put away.
I don't for one moment think that our good Dr. Palmer would go that far but labelling people as too angry to engage with is a nice way of saying, "He is a nutter and therefore you should ignore anything he says". The establishment keep trying this tactic but in the information age it doesn't work any more - see emergence of UKIP as an example - and the establishment don't know how to deal with it.0 -
What I am saying Inspector Plod is that it is just as likely to have been a staged event by NO person as being done by a YES supporter. Given the lucky fact that NO photographers were able to catch him taking the egg out of his pocket and watch him walk behind , walk off etc and that they have very clear pictures, Murphy has milked it but not complained , it is highly likely that there is a reason behind that.CarlottaVance said:FPT:
Just to be clear. You are accusing Better Together of staging the Murphy assault?malcolmg said:
when you stage something you do not want your helper arrested, they have clear pictures but bet it never happens.CarlottaVance said:
Good to read an arrest has been made - which is more than appears to have happened in the Murphy assault.malcolmg said:half the story almost reported
http://www.scotsman.com/news/scotland/top-stories/man-held-over-assault-after-yes-no-confrontation-1-3526187
And the Yes Twitter campaign - or was that just a coincidence?
On your other point , are you saying that twitter should not be used for political comments or for people to arrange to meet to go to political events etc
Is this you saying that we should not have democracy but one side should have a police state and be able to ban free speech and movement of people and proscribe use of twitter.. very Tory
With all your orders and use of bold , cursing people out I think you like uniforms and discipline0 -
FPT / Foxinsoxuk:
52.5% of adults in Clacton are 55 or older. With differential turnout it's possible they could cast around 60-65% of votes.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/clacton/comment-page-8/#comments0 -
Is it just me, or is the BBC kicking the arse out of the ‘Ashya’ story? – Five days on the trot as their top story is more time than was given over to 180.000 Syrian deaths, Christian genocide by ISIS and the sexual abuse of 1400 girls in Rotherham – what’s the fascination, I don't get it.0
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Murphy has achieved his goal of creating a major distraction from the real issues from an egging and turning it to his advantage by his claims of "sinister" hecklers.He has concocted his own story to deflect attention and it has been effective in that regard,even if it has opened up accusations of him being a big jessie.CarlottaVance said:FPT:
Just to be clear. You are accusing Better Together of staging the Murphy assault?malcolmg said:
when you stage something you do not want your helper arrested, they have clear pictures but bet it never happens.CarlottaVance said:
Good to read an arrest has been made - which is more than appears to have happened in the Murphy assault.malcolmg said:half the story almost reported
http://www.scotsman.com/news/scotland/top-stories/man-held-over-assault-after-yes-no-confrontation-1-3526187
And the Yes Twitter campaign - or was that just a coincidence?
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I have been running Wordle on malcolmg's posts... hmm.0
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they defied the NHSSimonStClare said:Is it just me, or is the BBC kicking the arse out of the ‘Ashya’ story? – Five days on the trot as their top story is more time than was given over to 180.000 Syrian deaths, Christian genocide by ISIS and the sexual abuse of 1400 girls in Rotherham – what’s the fascination, I don't get it.
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Rotherham. What finally broke this rotten situation open was the study chaired by an academic. The word "academic" is used often to signify "impractical" and "theoretical". So credit is due here.
Let's extend these studies, and also seek academic advice. These villainous tribal practices must be quenched, with steady application of the law and of education.
I am a lefty.0 -
Oh, so it's gone from "staged" to "just as likely to have been staged"......growing less bold in your baseless assertions?malcolmg said:
What I am saying Inspector Plod is that it is just as likely to have been a staged event by NO person as being done by a YES supporter.CarlottaVance said:FPT:
Just to be clear. You are accusing Better Together of staging the Murphy assault?malcolmg said:
when you stage something you do not want your helper arrested, they have clear pictures but bet it never happens.CarlottaVance said:
Good to read an arrest has been made - which is more than appears to have happened in the Murphy assault.malcolmg said:half the story almost reported
http://www.scotsman.com/news/scotland/top-stories/man-held-over-assault-after-yes-no-confrontation-1-3526187
And the Yes Twitter campaign - or was that just a coincidence?
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The law wasn't changed to allow a non UK national to become Police Commisioner, was it? William Bratton would be good for us in South Yorkshire.0
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What would he know?
The Scottish Government's independent defence policy is "dangerous" and would leave Scotland and Nato less capable of dealing with current and future threats, a former Nato commander has said.
General Sir Richard Shirreff, who has just stepped down as Nato's deputy supreme allied commander Europe, said the SNP's plan is "amateurish" and that Scotland's future in Nato is "uncertain" if it leaves the UK and expels nuclear weapons from the Clyde.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/nato-former-chief-iscotland-defence-plan-is-dangerous.14094800110 -
That's about as close to apostasy as you can get in the UK......Alanbrooke said:
they defied the NHSSimonStClare said:Is it just me, or is the BBC kicking the arse out of the ‘Ashya’ story? – Five days on the trot as their top story is more time than was given over to 180.000 Syrian deaths, Christian genocide by ISIS and the sexual abuse of 1400 girls in Rotherham – what’s the fascination, I don't get it.
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UK businesses 'want new EU deal', says lobby group
Most British businesses want the UK to renegotiate its relationship with the EU, according to a British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) survey.
The lobby group said 60% of the 3,200 firms polled believed bringing some powers home would help the UK economy.
However, most wanted to stay in the EU - with a majority saying leaving would damage UK business prospects.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29002835
http://www.britishchambers.org.uk/press-office/press-releases/bcc-growing-support-for-re-negotiating-britain’s-relationship-with-the-eu.html
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Isn't that known as playing the man not the ball?HurstLlama said:@Socrates
"People like Nick Palmer have said I seem to be too angry to engage with."
Well of course you are, you keep raising facts that the establishment don't want raised. They cannot deny the facts so they label the person raising them. This was a well known tactic in the Soviet union in the 70's and 80s. A person of credibility who raised an inconvenient fact that could not be credibly refuted was labelled, anti-social or some other nonsense name. If he/she persisted he/she was deemed insane and put away.
I don't for one moment think that our good Dr. Palmer would go that far but labelling people as too angry to engage with is a nice way of saying, "He is a nutter and therefore you should ignore anything he says". The establishment keep trying this tactic but in the information age it doesn't work any more - see emergence of UKIP as an example - and the establishment don't know how to deal with it.
If you can't rubbish the idea, rubbish the person behind it. h/t Sir Humphrey
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From memory, about 26% of the UKIP voters in the Clacton Survation poll thought that Cameron would be the best PM (vs 55% for Farage)isam said:
The tory supporters on here don't seem to get the fact that people who left the party because of Cameron, don't want Cameron as PM... if they did, they wouldn't have leftStereotomy said:
Haven't the polls consistently shown that UKIP voters would be as happy with Labour as with the Tories?perdix said:People voting ukip, getting Miliband. You asked for it!
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Only 59% say leaving the EU would damage business, so it's more accurate to say they are split on the topic.MarkHopkins said:UK businesses 'want new EU deal', says lobby group
Most British businesses want the UK to renegotiate its relationship with the EU, according to a British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) survey.
The lobby group said 60% of the 3,200 firms polled believed bringing some powers home would help the UK economy.
However, most wanted to stay in the EU - with a majority saying leaving would damage UK business prospects.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29002835
http://www.britishchambers.org.uk/press-office/press-releases/bcc-growing-support-for-re-negotiating-britain’s-relationship-with-the-eu.html
I would love to see the poll results for "replacing EU membership with a free trade agreement", which is what would actually happen.0 -
It seems clear that the whole culture of the South Yorks Police is corrupt. Changing the head won't change the culture Disband it. Let those below Inspector reapply for the new force each case judged on its merits. Inspectors and above, the ones that drive the culture, can take their redundancy and start again in another career - the good ones will thrive the bad ones, well who cares.PAW said:The law wasn't changed to allow a non UK national to become Police Commisioner, was it? William Bratton would be good for us in South Yorkshire.
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Excellent and thought-provoking article by SeanT in the Telegraph.
On the Indy debate I see what you mean - putting half-hearted Labourites in charge of the BT campaign is not the best way of injecting passion into the No campaign. And what kind of campaign can win without some passion?. Well, hopefully, the BT campaign can. For those south of the border, the rationale was that the Labour working classes are key to the referendum and they will not be moved by appeals to British patriotism hence Darling's exclusive focus on the economics. However this has been frustrating to us who are moved by the importance of 300 years of shared history and achievement. And are angered by the sheer baloney, tendentiousness and nihilism of the Yes campaign.
On Clacton. Only chance for the Tories to get an even half-decent result is to go for an open primary and select a striking, preferably local, candidate on the Sarah Wollaston model. If the campaign then becomes a contest between two authentic personalities then Douglas Carswell may come under a bit more pressure. The maverick will always beat the party in a by-election (cf Galloway in Bradford).
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Comments switched off on SeanT's latest blogpost.0
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No you were the one who said it was staged and organised by official YES campaign , as usual you are full of wind and piss.CarlottaVance said:
Oh, so it's gone from "staged" to "just as likely to have been staged"......growing less bold in your baseless assertions?malcolmg said:
What I am saying Inspector Plod is that it is just as likely to have been a staged event by NO person as being done by a YES supporter.CarlottaVance said:FPT:
Just to be clear. You are accusing Better Together of staging the Murphy assault?malcolmg said:
when you stage something you do not want your helper arrested, they have clear pictures but bet it never happens.CarlottaVance said:
Good to read an arrest has been made - which is more than appears to have happened in the Murphy assault.malcolmg said:half the story almost reported
http://www.scotsman.com/news/scotland/top-stories/man-held-over-assault-after-yes-no-confrontation-1-3526187
And the Yes Twitter campaign - or was that just a coincidence?
As previously requested go and stalk someone else with your fantasies.0 -
Righty-ho. - Still strikes me as grossly excessive and a twisted sense of priorities.Alanbrooke said:
they defied the NHSSimonStClare said:Is it just me, or is the BBC kicking the arse out of the ‘Ashya’ story? – Five days on the trot as their top story is more time than was given over to 180.000 Syrian deaths, Christian genocide by ISIS and the sexual abuse of 1400 girls in Rotherham – what’s the fascination, I don't get it.
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FGM was made illegal in 1985. There hasn't been a single conviction so far. Why do you think that might be?Toms said:Rotherham. What finally broke this rotten situation open was the study chaired by an academic. The word "academic" is used often to signify "impractical" and "theoretical". So credit is due here.
Let's extend these studies, and also seek academic advice. These villainous tribal practices must be quenched, with steady application of the law and of education.
I am a lefty.0 -
Another unionist duffer spouting crap.CarlottaVance said:What would he know?
The Scottish Government's independent defence policy is "dangerous" and would leave Scotland and Nato less capable of dealing with current and future threats, a former Nato commander has said.
General Sir Richard Shirreff, who has just stepped down as Nato's deputy supreme allied commander Europe, said the SNP's plan is "amateurish" and that Scotland's future in Nato is "uncertain" if it leaves the UK and expels nuclear weapons from the Clyde.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/nato-former-chief-iscotland-defence-plan-is-dangerous.14094800110 -
@SeanT - excellent blog
@Alanbrooke FPT
Well most of the shares in Cadbury would have been institutional investors. So the capital released by the sale would have reinvested in opportunities that they felt offered greater value. Whether they were right or wrong, who knows.
However, we mustn't forget that the Kraft CEO (I forget her name) lied. It is shameful that she wasn't held to account by the panel, and shameful that she refused to appear before a parliamentary committee.0 -
It angers me greatly, but I'm not interested in points scoring.AndyJS said:
FGM was made illegal in 1985. There hasn't been a single conviction so far. Why do you think that might be?Toms said:Rotherham. What finally broke this rotten situation open was the study chaired by an academic. The word "academic" is used often to signify "impractical" and "theoretical". So credit is due here.
Let's extend these studies, and also seek academic advice. These villainous tribal practices must be quenched, with steady application of the law and of education.
I am a lefty.0 -
The other problem SLAB face is that for years they went on about the iniquities of "Tory rule from London".NorthBriton said:On the Indy debate I see what you mean - putting half-hearted Labourites in charge of the BT campaign is not the best way of injecting passion into the No campaign. And what kind of campaign can win without some passion?. Well, hopefully, the BT campaign can. For those south of the border, the rationale was that the Labour working classes are key to the referendum and they will not be moved by appeals to British patriotism hence Darling's exclusive focus on the economics. However this has been frustrating to us who are moved by the importance of 300 years of shared history and achievement. And are angered by the sheer baloney, tendentiousness and nihilism of the Yes campaign.
They are not best placed to rebut the same argument from the SNP now.......0 -
Ha Ha Ha , so moved by the importance of 300 years history you appoint those serial losers Darling and Alexander to fight for you.NorthBriton said:Excellent and thought-provoking article by SeanT in the Telegraph.
On the Indy debate I see what you mean - putting half-hearted Labourites in charge of the BT campaign is not the best way of injecting passion into the No campaign. And what kind of campaign can win without some passion?. Well, hopefully, the BT campaign can. For those south of the border, the rationale was that the Labour working classes are key to the referendum and they will not be moved by appeals to British patriotism hence Darling's exclusive focus on the economics. However this has been frustrating to us who are moved by the importance of 300 years of shared history and achievement. And are angered by the sheer baloney, tendentiousness and nihilism of the Yes campaign.
On Clacton. Only chance for the Tories to get an even half-decent result is to go for an open primary and select a striking, preferably local, candidate on the Sarah Wollaston model. If the campaign then becomes a contest between two authentic personalities then Douglas Carswell may come under a bit more pressure. The maverick will always beat the party in a by-election (cf Galloway in Bradford).0 -
YES shop burnt down in arson attack, silence from BT
https://twitter.com/WingsScotland0 -
Not sure if I'm a lefty or not, but I agree with the main thrust of that argument, except I would narrow it down: women's education is vital. Women generally still (sadly or gladly, depending on your viewpoint) spend most of the time with children as they grow up, and instil many values into them. A poorly-educated woman will miss out on many things, and the values instilled may be more defined by her husband than her own will.Toms said:Rotherham. What finally broke this rotten situation open was the study chaired by an academic. The word "academic" is used often to signify "impractical" and "theoretical". So credit is due here.
Let's extend these studies, and also seek academic advice. These villainous tribal practices must be quenched, with steady application of the law and of education.
I am a lefty.
Having women who are not allowed to learn English (as happened with the mother of a Bangladeshi uni friend of mine), or are not allowed to progress education (which is allegedly occurring) inflames the situation.
Educate women and girls to the same standard as men and boys, and you will start seeing a difference within a generation.
(Does this make me a feminist?)0 -
Nato's deputy supreme allied commander Europemalcolmg said:
Another unionist duffer spouting crap.CarlottaVance said:What would he know?
The Scottish Government's independent defence policy is "dangerous" and would leave Scotland and Nato less capable of dealing with current and future threats, a former Nato commander has said.
General Sir Richard Shirreff, who has just stepped down as Nato's deputy supreme allied commander Europe, said the SNP's plan is "amateurish" and that Scotland's future in Nato is "uncertain" if it leaves the UK and expels nuclear weapons from the Clyde.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/nato-former-chief-iscotland-defence-plan-is-dangerous.1409480011
Remind us of your expertise and experience in matters military?0 -
malcolmg said:CarlottaVance said:
Oh, so it's gone from "staged" to "just as likely to have been staged"......growing less bold in your baseless assertions?malcolmg said:
What I am saying Inspector Plod is that it is just as likely to have been a staged event by NO person as being done by a YES supporter.CarlottaVance said:FPT:
Just to be clear. You are accusing Better Together of staging the Murphy assault?malcolmg said:
when you stage something you do not want your helper arrested, they have clear pictures but bet it never happens.CarlottaVance said:
Good to read an arrest has been made - which is more than appears to have happened in the Murphy assault.malcolmg said:half the story almost reported
http://www.scotsman.com/news/scotland/top-stories/man-held-over-assault-after-yes-no-confrontation-1-3526187
And the Yes Twitter campaign - or was that just a coincidence?
Nope it was carried out by a Yes supporter bitter and twisted who realises that their dream of an Independent Scotland is about to sink without trace in a few weeks time . They are lashing out at reality . Someone much like yourself , in fact .malcolmg said:
No you were the one who said it was staged and organised by official YES campaign , as usual you are full of wind and piss.CarlottaVance said:
Oh, so it's gone from "staged" to "just as likely to have been staged"......growing less bold in your baseless assertions?malcolmg said:
What I am saying Inspector Plod is that it is just as likely to have been a staged event by NO person as being done by a YES supporter.CarlottaVance said:FPT:
Just to be clear. You are accusing Better Together of staging the Murphy assault?malcolmg said:
when you stage something you do not want your helper arrested, they have clear pictures but bet it never happens.CarlottaVance said:
Good to read an arrest has been made - which is more than appears to have happened in the Murphy assault.malcolmg said:half the story almost reported
http://www.scotsman.com/news/scotland/top-stories/man-held-over-assault-after-yes-no-confrontation-1-3526187
And the Yes Twitter campaign - or was that just a coincidence?
As previously requested go and stalk someone else with your fantasies.0 -
It makes you sensible.JosiasJessop said:
Not sure if I'm a lefty or not, but I agree with the main thrust of that argument, except I would narrow it down: women's education is vital. Women generally still (sadly or gladly, depending on your viewpoint) spend most of the time with children as they grow up, and instil many values into them. A poorly-educated woman will miss out on many things, and the values instilled may be more defined by her husband than her own will.Toms said:Rotherham. What finally broke this rotten situation open was the study chaired by an academic. The word "academic" is used often to signify "impractical" and "theoretical". So credit is due here.
Let's extend these studies, and also seek academic advice. These villainous tribal practices must be quenched, with steady application of the law and of education.
I am a lefty.
Having women who are not allowed to learn English (as happened with the mother of a Bangladeshi uni friend of mine), or are not allowed to progress education (which is allegedly occurring) inflames the situation.
Educate women and girls to the same standard as men and boys, and you will start seeing a difference within a generation.
(Does this make me a feminist?)0 -
You have a point, to be fair. A tragedy of Scottish Labour is that no fewer than three of their leaders who could have taken Salmond apart died prematurely - Donald Dewar, John Smith and Robin Cook. It would have been a delight to see the latter, in particular, take a bodkin to the bladder.malcolmg said:
Ha Ha Ha , so moved by the importance of 300 years history you appoint those serial losers Darling and Alexander to fight for you.NorthBriton said:Excellent and thought-provoking article by SeanT in the Telegraph.
On the Indy debate I see what you mean - putting half-hearted Labourites in charge of the BT campaign is not the best way of injecting passion into the No campaign. And what kind of campaign can win without some passion?. Well, hopefully, the BT campaign can. For those south of the border, the rationale was that the Labour working classes are key to the referendum and they will not be moved by appeals to British patriotism hence Darling's exclusive focus on the economics. However this has been frustrating to us who are moved by the importance of 300 years of shared history and achievement. And are angered by the sheer baloney, tendentiousness and nihilism of the Yes campaign.
On Clacton. Only chance for the Tories to get an even half-decent result is to go for an open primary and select a striking, preferably local, candidate on the Sarah Wollaston model. If the campaign then becomes a contest between two authentic personalities then Douglas Carswell may come under a bit more pressure. The maverick will always beat the party in a by-election (cf Galloway in Bradford).
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It's the absence of anger (as opposed to the presence of justified outrage) which surprises me.HurstLlama said:@Socrates
"People like Nick Palmer have said I seem to be too angry to engage with."
Well of course you are, you keep raising facts that the establishment don't want raised. They cannot deny the facts so they label the person raising them. This was a well known tactic in the Soviet union in the 70's and 80s. A person of credibility who raised an inconvenient fact that could not be credibly refuted was labelled, anti-social or some other nonsense name. If he/she persisted he/she was deemed insane and put away.
I don't for one moment think that our good Dr. Palmer would go that far but labelling people as too angry to engage with is a nice way of saying, "He is a nutter and therefore you should ignore anything he says". The establishment keep trying this tactic but in the information age it doesn't work any more - see emergence of UKIP as an example - and the establishment don't know how to deal with it.
We're less than a decade from an election in which a million people voted for the BNP. Not long on from when there was such hysteria about paedophiles that people were beating up paediatricians because it sounds the same. A widespread but facile understanding of something happening thousands of miles away means English Jews don't feel safe going about their daily business.
Yet Rotherham, lots of headlines, lots of angst, and then... what? No poll boost for UKIP or the Tories (maybe if the offenders were Romanian?). No vigilante attacks by the EDL against the very easily located men street grooming and catcalling young women. No resurgence of the BNP who made grooming gangs their single priority issue for much of the last decade.
I'm not saying I want those things, but their total absence surprises me.0 -
Oh god ok sorry.. MOST people who left the party because of CameronCharles said:
From memory, about 26% of the UKIP voters in the Clacton Survation poll thought that Cameron would be the best PM (vs 55% for Farage)isam said:
The tory supporters on here don't seem to get the fact that people who left the party because of Cameron, don't want Cameron as PM... if they did, they wouldn't have leftStereotomy said:
Haven't the polls consistently shown that UKIP voters would be as happy with Labour as with the Tories?perdix said:People voting ukip, getting Miliband. You asked for it!
(although some who left may not have done so because of Cameron but I cant be going down pin head dancing nonsense)
The fact is that UKIP voters don't care whether Cameron or Miliband is PM. Theyre both a million miles away from what we want.
Carswell worked with Cameron and talked about the EU referendum with him and his conclusion was to leave because he was insincere about his intentions.. that's what UKIP voters seem to think too
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Disgraceful! And I won't stoop to suggesting that it was staged, as some if our more excitable posters do on assaults on No.....malcolmg said:YES shop burnt down in arson attack, silence from BT
https://twitter.com/WingsScotland
But just a clarification - you claim "burnt down" - twitter says "subject to arson attack" and shows a fire in the street outside steel shutters.
Got a source for "burnt down"?0 -
''The fact is that UKIP voters don't care whether Cameron or Miliband is PM. Theyre both a million miles away from what we want.''
In some ways it will be easier to fight Miliband because he isn't pretending to agree with conservative voters whilst wanting something else behind their back.
He's an honest leftist rather than a mendacious one.0 -
In a perfect world Id say you were right.. but its utter madness to think that the parts of England that are dominated by Muslims are even considering letting what you suggest happen.JosiasJessop said:
Not sure if I'm a lefty or not, but I agree with the main thrust of that argument, except I would narrow it down: women's education is vital. Women generally still (sadly or gladly, depending on your viewpoint) spend most of the time with children as they grow up, and instil many values into them. A poorly-educated woman will miss out on many things, and the values instilled may be more defined by her husband than her own will.Toms said:Rotherham. What finally broke this rotten situation open was the study chaired by an academic. The word "academic" is used often to signify "impractical" and "theoretical". So credit is due here.
Let's extend these studies, and also seek academic advice. These villainous tribal practices must be quenched, with steady application of the law and of education.
I am a lefty.
Having women who are not allowed to learn English (as happened with the mother of a Bangladeshi uni friend of mine), or are not allowed to progress education (which is allegedly occurring) inflames the situation.
Educate women and girls to the same standard as men and boys, and you will start seeing a difference within a generation.
(Does this make me a feminist?)
What so many people seem to say is mass immigration is great as long as they all play by our set of rules, but as we have seen in the middle east, and are seeing in East London, Rotherham and Birmingham, the rules are different, and imposing ours on them doesn't work.
Sorry for the "us and them" tone, and I don't see it as a problem for all muslims, only in the areas where they are the majority.. so im not talking about your wife.. mixed marriages are probably the antidote for the problem
To be fair if I was in a community of vaguely Christian English people abroad I am sure Id stick with my own and we would have our own rules/schools etc separate from the rest of society.. its human nature, its why mass immigration doesn't work
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0
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For something completely different I mention that stage nine of the Vuelta is reaching a humongous mountain finish.
http://www.lavuelta.com/14/en/online/index.html?e=90 -
Well that's exactly what Carswell said on Thursday...at least Miliband is honest about what he wants from the EU.. Cameron has the same views in private but pretends in public to be Eurosceptic to win votes.. and people that have always voted Tory want to believe him.. I can understand why hey stick up for himtaffys said:''The fact is that UKIP voters don't care whether Cameron or Miliband is PM. Theyre both a million miles away from what we want.''
In some ways it will be easier to fight Miliband because he isn't pretending to agree with conservative voters whilst wanting something else behind their back.
He's an honest leftist rather than a mendacious one.
I believed Blair because I so wanted him to be what I thought he was.. but he was a lying rat.. now I don't vote Labour anymore0 -
In 20 days' time David Cameron may resign as prime minister of the United Kingdom. Difficult to believe that's really true, but it is.0
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The reason for that is, in contrast to the views of Labour figures like Jack Straw, the British population is one of the most decent and tolerant peoples in the world. The importation of people from more angry and violent societies, and the growth of a lumpenproletariat from a badly managed welfare state is changing that, mind.JohnDC said:
It's the absence of anger (as opposed to the presence of justified outrage) which surprises me.HurstLlama said:@Socrates
"People like Nick Palmer have said I seem to be too angry to engage with."
Well of course you are, you keep raising facts that the establishment don't want raised. They cannot deny the facts so they label the person raising them. This was a well known tactic in the Soviet union in the 70's and 80s. A person of credibility who raised an inconvenient fact that could not be credibly refuted was labelled, anti-social or some other nonsense name. If he/she persisted he/she was deemed insane and put away.
I don't for one moment think that our good Dr. Palmer would go that far but labelling people as too angry to engage with is a nice way of saying, "He is a nutter and therefore you should ignore anything he says". The establishment keep trying this tactic but in the information age it doesn't work any more - see emergence of UKIP as an example - and the establishment don't know how to deal with it.
We're less than a decade from an election in which a million people voted for the BNP. Not long on from when there was such hysteria about paedophiles that people were beating up paediatricians because it sounds the same. A widespread but facile understanding of something happening thousands of miles away means English Jews don't feel safe going about their daily business.
Yet Rotherham, lots of headlines, lots of angst, and then... what? No poll boost for UKIP or the Tories (maybe if the offenders were Romanian?). No vigilante attacks by the EDL against the very easily located men street grooming and catcalling young women. No resurgence of the BNP who made grooming gangs their single priority issue for much of the last decade.
I'm not saying I want those things, but their total absence surprises me.0 -
SLAB and the SLD helped fuel the rise in Scottish nationalism. As you sow so shall you reap.CarlottaVance said:
The other problem SLAB face is that for years they went on about the iniquities of "Tory rule from London".NorthBriton said:On the Indy debate I see what you mean - putting half-hearted Labourites in charge of the BT campaign is not the best way of injecting passion into the No campaign. And what kind of campaign can win without some passion?. Well, hopefully, the BT campaign can. For those south of the border, the rationale was that the Labour working classes are key to the referendum and they will not be moved by appeals to British patriotism hence Darling's exclusive focus on the economics. However this has been frustrating to us who are moved by the importance of 300 years of shared history and achievement. And are angered by the sheer baloney, tendentiousness and nihilism of the Yes campaign.
They are not best placed to rebut the same argument from the SNP now.......
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FPTSocrates said:
Thinking of the numbers on this is staggering.
The "1400" number in Rotherham was considered a "conservative" estimate. It's probably closer to 2000 or 2500. But let's assume Rotherham was one of the worst examples and the average town where this happened had just 700 abuse victims - half the 'conservative' Rotherham level.
The most horrific instances of abuse involved girls being prostituted out to men across a broad area. This could mean a dozen rapes in a night, whether the men came consecutively or gang raped her. If this happened a few times a week, then it's well possible some girls got raped a thousand times in a year. On the low side, girls more marginally on the edge of this might have just been targeted about once a month by a group of guys. That's still likely to be about 50 rapes a year if four or five rapists were involved. 100 rapes per year of an average victim seems conservative.
The youngest girls were targeted at 11 or 12. They seem to have been dropped by these gangs by the time they were 15 or 16. Given that some girls may have escaped after a shorter period of time, let's estimate the average period of abuse was probably about three years.
We are currently aware of this model of abuse definitely happening in Barking, Birmingham, Blackburn, Blackpool, Bradford, Derby, Ipswich, Keighley, Manchester, Nelson, Oldham, Oxford, Peterborough, Preston, Rochdale, Sheffield, Skipton and Telford in addition to Rotherham itself. I've also heard anecdotal reports on here about Tower Hamlets, Worcester and Luton. But let's keep ourselves grounded and and assume it only took place in the 19 towns mentioned.
700 victims per town x 100 rapes a year x three years' of abuse per victim x 19 towns.
Just under four million rapes. And this in a deliberate effort to scale down the numbers.
FOUR MILLION CHILD RAPES.
Four million rapes neglected or covered up by the establishment for fear of upsetting community sensitivities. And that's before we get to the torture, the psychological warfare and the outright murders.
People like Nick Palmer have said I seem to be too angry to engage with. But isn't four million child rapes the sort of thing that it's justified to get angry about? This must surely be the worst thing that has happened to our country since the Second World War.
That's getting to the scale of it - and all the while the political class talking about low crime - such a sick joke.
just to add
"but let's assume Rotherham was one of the worst examples"
I think all the old textile towns around Lancashire, Yorkshire etc are about the same level as Rotherham (proportional to size) because they share all the same factors but apart from them yes, the other places mentioned maybe 10-50% Rotherham numbers.
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@MikeSmithson
There is a poll in The Sun on Sunday (p2) taken by the Conservatives in the days before Carswells defection.. haven't seen this before
How would you vote with or without Carswell as a Tory?
With Carswell standing as a Tory
43% Tory
30% UKIP
16% Labour
Without Carswell standing as a Tory
29% Tory
30% UKIP
21% Labour
(Obviously the UKIP score wihout Carswell as a Tory isn't with Carswell as a Kipper!)0 -
If I can pick up on, and extend, one of your points:isam said:
In a perfect world Id say you were right.. but its utter madness to think that the parts of England that are dominated by Muslims are even considering letting what you suggest happen.
What so many people seem to say is mass immigration is great as long as they all play by our set of rules, but as we have seen in the middle east, and are seeing in East London, Rotherham and Birmingham, the rules are different, and imposing ours on them doesn't work.
Sorry for the "us and them" tone, and I don't see it as a problem for all muslims, only in the areas where they are the majority.. so im not talking about your wife.. mixed marriages are probably the antidote for the problem
To be fair if I was in a community of vaguely Christian English people abroad I am sure Id stick with my own and we would have our own rules/schools etc separate from the rest of society.. its human nature, its why mass immigration doesn't work
"mixed marriages are probably the antidote for the problem"
Anecdote alert: one of my best friends from school ended up going to the same uni as me (indeed, he was on the floor below me in the halls of residence in the first year). His father was Pakistani, and his mother English. So it was very much a loving, mixed-race marriage. His father became a JP and was well known and respected in their local community.
Sadly, my friend's sister went out with an Englishman, and was disowned by most of the family (excepting my friend). Her father could marry an Englishwoman, but his daughter could only marry a Pakistani. She ended up running away with her partner - I have no idea what happened afterwards, but my friend was devastated at the 'loss' of a sister who could no longer contact him.
To make matters worse, my friend went out with a sweet English girl. His father said to him, in her presence: "It's okay to sow your seed, but you're not marrying her." I have that particular story from both sides.
So it's not just a case of mixed marriages; it's mixed cultures, and acceptance of the other culture. But then I would say that, being married to a Turkish atheist feminist. ;-)0 -
good.AndyJS said:In 20 days' time David Cameron may resign as prime minister of the United Kingdom. Difficult to believe that's really true, but it is.
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I'm not saying I want those things, but their total absence surprises me.
Its certainly a conundrum. I wish I could give you an answer. Here are a couple of theories.
1. The enormity of the crime is such that there's an air of unreality about it. We could be talking about a Rwanda-sized event here. In our own back yard. People don't know how to react.
2. People are unsure of who the real culprits are - the muslims or the authorities who tolerated their crimes.
3. The doctrine of political correctness is so ingrained into the culture and laws of Britain, so much a default part of its fabric, that retaliation of any kind, even a peaceful kind like a march through Rotherham, seems inconceivable.0 -
Yeah, you still haven't explained why this takeover was in the national interest.Charles said:@SeanT - excellent blog
@Alanbrooke FPT
Well most of the shares in Cadbury would have been institutional investors. So the capital released by the sale would have reinvested in opportunities that they felt offered greater value. Whether they were right or wrong, who knows.
However, we mustn't forget that the Kraft CEO (I forget her name) lied. It is shameful that she wasn't held to account by the panel, and shameful that she refused to appear before a parliamentary committee.
Start with most acquisitions fail to meet their objectives, then that the tax policies of Kraft moved the base overseas so now the rest of the UK has to make up the difference, then that the taxpayer subsidised the takeover via RBS, followed by the loss of jobs in the UK, I could go on.
In simple terms Charles this is just one of those issues where the national inetrest isn't aligned with investors. I often wonder if harder takeover rules would improve the standard of corporate governance. The objective of the average UK CEO seems to be to sell his business asap, if they were judged by organic growth more then things might improve. Likewise since by investors you mean fund managers rather then the people who actually own the money what if we stop them getting fast bucks just to line their own pockets ?0 -
I believe the vast majority of Muslims in this country believe it is unacceptable for a Muslim women to marry a non-Muslim man. This is rank intolerance and should be publicly condemned by our leaders. But our leaders are all running scared of the conservative Muslim community.JosiasJessop said:
If I can pick up on, and extend, one of your points:isam said:
In a perfect world Id say you were right.. but its utter madness to think that the parts of England that are dominated by Muslims are even considering letting what you suggest happen.
What so many people seem to say is mass immigration is great as long as they all play by our set of rules, but as we have seen in the middle east, and are seeing in East London, Rotherham and Birmingham, the rules are different, and imposing ours on them doesn't work.
Sorry for the "us and them" tone, and I don't see it as a problem for all muslims, only in the areas where they are the majority.. so im not talking about your wife.. mixed marriages are probably the antidote for the problem
To be fair if I was in a community of vaguely Christian English people abroad I am sure Id stick with my own and we would have our own rules/schools etc separate from the rest of society.. its human nature, its why mass immigration doesn't work
"mixed marriages are probably the antidote for the problem"
Anecdote alert: one of my best friends from school ended up going to the same uni as me (indeed, he was on the floor below me in the halls of residence in the first year). His father was Pakistani, and his mother English. So it was very much a loving, mixed-race marriage. His father became a JP and was well known and respected in their local community.
Sadly, my friend's sister went out with an Englishman, and was disowned by most of the family (excepting my friend). Her father could marry an Englishwoman, but his daughter could only marry a Pakistani. She ended up running away with her partner - I have no idea what happened afterwards, but my friend was devastated at the 'loss' of a sister who could no longer contact him.
To make matters worse, my friend went out with a sweet English girl. His father said to him, in her presence: "It's okay to sow your seed, but you're not marrying her." I have that particular story from both sides.
So it's not just a case of mixed marriages; it's mixed cultures, and acceptance of the other culture. But then I would say that, being married to a Turkish atheist feminist. ;-)0 -
I agree. I very much hope for a NO vote, we are indeed better together. But if Scotland vote YES (which I do not expect) then Labour and the LDs have themselves to blame. And of course the Scots will have themselves to blame for YES vote and given the nature of their campaign (as typified by Malcolmg) the English cannot expect much co-operation from them and are likely to be treated back in kind. All very sad if the vote is YES.TCPoliticalBetting said:
SLAB and the SLD helped fuel the rise in Scottish nationalism. As you sow so shall you reap.CarlottaVance said:
The other problem SLAB face is that for years they went on about the iniquities of "Tory rule from London".NorthBriton said:On the Indy debate I see what you mean - putting half-hearted Labourites in charge of the BT campaign is not the best way of injecting passion into the No campaign. And what kind of campaign can win without some passion?. Well, hopefully, the BT campaign can. For those south of the border, the rationale was that the Labour working classes are key to the referendum and they will not be moved by appeals to British patriotism hence Darling's exclusive focus on the economics. However this has been frustrating to us who are moved by the importance of 300 years of shared history and achievement. And are angered by the sheer baloney, tendentiousness and nihilism of the Yes campaign.
They are not best placed to rebut the same argument from the SNP now.......
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Amongst the 200+ other countries in the world, how many have adopted our NHS model?Alanbrooke said:
they defied the NHSSimonStClare said:Is it just me, or is the BBC kicking the arse out of the ‘Ashya’ story? – Five days on the trot as their top story is more time than was given over to 180.000 Syrian deaths, Christian genocide by ISIS and the sexual abuse of 1400 girls in Rotherham – what’s the fascination, I don't get it.
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.AndyJS said:In 20 days' time David Cameron may resign as prime minister of the United Kingdom. Difficult to believe that's really true, but it is.
Yes, quite extraordinary when you think of it. Few folk seem to register that the outcome of a Yes vote would be political tumult both north and south of the border. Chickens coming home to roost both sides of the border. ("Whaddya mean we can't have a currency union? It's the sovereign will of the Scottish people.")
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isam said:
Well that's exactly what Carswell said on Thursday...at least Miliband is honest about what he wants from the EU.. Cameron has the same views in private but pretends in public to be Eurosceptic to win votes.. and people that have always voted Tory want to believe him.. I can understand why hey stick up for himtaffys said:''The fact is that UKIP voters don't care whether Cameron or Miliband is PM. Theyre both a million miles away from what we want.''
In some ways it will be easier to fight Miliband because he isn't pretending to agree with conservative voters whilst wanting something else behind their back.
He's an honest leftist rather than a mendacious one.
I believed Blair because I so wanted him to be what I thought he was.. but he was a lying rat.. now I don't vote Labour anymore
A pretty stupid remark - as was taffys.isam said:
Well that's exactly what Carswell said on Thursday...at least Miliband is honest about what he wants from the EU.. Cameron has the same views in private but pretends in public to be Eurosceptic to win votes.. and people that have always voted Tory want to believe him.. I can understand why hey stick up for himtaffys said:''The fact is that UKIP voters don't care whether Cameron or Miliband is PM. Theyre both a million miles away from what we want.''
In some ways it will be easier to fight Miliband because he isn't pretending to agree with conservative voters whilst wanting something else behind their back.
He's an honest leftist rather than a mendacious one.
I believed Blair because I so wanted him to be what I thought he was.. but he was a lying rat.. now I don't vote Labour anymore
Cameron is a fairly straightforward typical leader and has laid out his position on the EU quite clearly and to me it makes sense. There is no reason to suggest he is being dissembling.
You are happy to accept that Carswell is speaking the truth but in reality there is little logic to what he says and from now on all; he says will be twisted to suit his own self interest and self justification.
Its perfectly reasonable to accept reform in the EU as a fair position. The dissembling position is to pretend that there will be some great difference if we leave.0 -
Despite what the media said (all through the 14 years they were covering up the industrial scale gang-rape being inflicted on people in the inner cities) most of those people just wanted what was being done to them not to be covered up and for the police to do something about it.JohnDC said:
It's the absence of anger (as opposed to the presence of justified outrage) which surprises me.HurstLlama said:@Socrates
"People like Nick Palmer have said I seem to be too angry to engage with."
Well of course you are, you keep raising facts that the establishment don't want raised. They cannot deny the facts so they label the person raising them. This was a well known tactic in the Soviet union in the 70's and 80s. A person of credibility who raised an inconvenient fact that could not be credibly refuted was labelled, anti-social or some other nonsense name. If he/she persisted he/she was deemed insane and put away.
I don't for one moment think that our good Dr. Palmer would go that far but labelling people as too angry to engage with is a nice way of saying, "He is a nutter and therefore you should ignore anything he says". The establishment keep trying this tactic but in the information age it doesn't work any more - see emergence of UKIP as an example - and the establishment don't know how to deal with it.
We're less than a decade from an election in which a million people voted for the BNP. Not long on from when there was such hysteria about paedophiles that people were beating up paediatricians because it sounds the same. A widespread but facile understanding of something happening thousands of miles away means English Jews don't feel safe going about their daily business.
Yet Rotherham, lots of headlines, lots of angst, and then... what? No poll boost for UKIP or the Tories (maybe if the offenders were Romanian?). No vigilante attacks by the EDL against the very easily located men street grooming and catcalling young women. No resurgence of the BNP who made grooming gangs their single priority issue for much of the last decade.
I'm not saying I want those things, but their total absence surprises me.
Now it's been forced past the wall of silence I expect they're probably expecting something will be done about it - wrongly in my view but i'm pretty cynical now.
If nothing gets done about it even after it's been forced on the BBC then i don't know what will happen.
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On integration, the other thing I sometimes hear from establishment types behind closed doors is that my assessment is of the backwards views held by many Muslims is "correct", but is "not helpful". They think the issue of integration is a highly difficult one, but given how sensitive many Muslims (and other groups to a lesser degree) are about criticism, the best approach to integration is to just not upset them and let it happen naturally, even if it takes decades or even generations.
Now, if you happen to believe this - that integration is a highly difficult and sensitive matter that will take a long time - then surely you should at least agree that we shouldn't add more unintegrated people into the mix. But when you propose limiting immigration of the poor and unskilled, the same types oppose this too. There's no cohesive thinking at all.0 -
Why would a Eurosceptic MP with a leader promising a referendum leave that party if he thought they were serious about change?Flightpath said:isam said:
Well that's exactly what Carswell said on Thursday...at least Miliband is honest about what he wants from the EU.. Cameron has the same views in private but pretends in public to be Eurosceptic to win votes.. and people that have always voted Tory want to believe him.. I can understand why hey stick up for himtaffys said:''The fact is that UKIP voters don't care whether Cameron or Miliband is PM. Theyre both a million miles away from what we want.''
In some ways it will be easier to fight Miliband because he isn't pretending to agree with conservative voters whilst wanting something else behind their back.
He's an honest leftist rather than a mendacious one.
I believed Blair because I so wanted him to be what I thought he was.. but he was a lying rat.. now I don't vote Labour anymore
A pretty stupid remark - as was taffys.isam said:
Well that's exactly what Carswell said on Thursday...at least Miliband is honest about what he wants from the EU.. Cameron has the same views in private but pretends in public to be Eurosceptic to win votes.. and people that have always voted Tory want to believe him.. I can understand why hey stick up for himtaffys said:''The fact is that UKIP voters don't care whether Cameron or Miliband is PM. Theyre both a million miles away from what we want.''
In some ways it will be easier to fight Miliband because he isn't pretending to agree with conservative voters whilst wanting something else behind their back.
He's an honest leftist rather than a mendacious one.
I believed Blair because I so wanted him to be what I thought he was.. but he was a lying rat.. now I don't vote Labour anymore
Cameron is a fairly straightforward typical leader and has laid out his position on the EU quite clearly and to me it makes sense. There is no reason to suggest he is being dissembling.
You are happy to accept that Carswell is speaking the truth but in reality there is little logic to what he says and from now on all; he says will be twisted to suit his own self interest and self justification.
Its perfectly reasonable to accept reform in the EU as a fair position. The dissembling position is to pretend that there will be some great difference if we leave.
Carswell let the cat out of the bag on Thursday... Cameron is pretending he will campaign for reform in order to win votes when he has no intention of doing anything0 -
"Its perfectly reasonable to accept reform in the EU as a fair position."
Only if you believe in hope over experience. Every British attempt ever to reform the EU for decades has floundered. From Wilson to Blair to Cameron. You have to be naive beyond belief to think anything substantial will happen to it.0 -
If there is no major round of convictions after what is almost certainly millions of child rapes, then it would strongly test my patience in representative democracy. I hate to think what it would mean for people less grounded in liberalism than I am.MrJones said:
If nothing gets done about it even after it's been forced on the BBC then i don't know what will happen.0 -
Trouble in Broxtowe.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-29004970
Perhaps Dr P needs to have a word.0 -
If he did he'd be going against public opinion, according to a poll in today's Express. I suspect he'll see his duty as to get Indy negotiations underway well ahead of the GE - and to set out the Westminster timetable, not one dreamt up by 8% of the UK....AndyJS said:In 20 days' time David Cameron may resign as prime minister of the United Kingdom. Difficult to believe that's really true, but it is.
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Faux outrage specialist Soubry quick to react I see.. hateful womandr_spyn said:Trouble in Broxtowe.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-29004970
Perhaps Dr P needs to have a word.0 -
German is a race? Who knew.dr_spyn said:Trouble in Broxtowe.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-29004970
Perhaps Dr P needs to have a word.0 -
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2738773/Police-plan-mass-raids-sex-gangs-Day-reckoning-hundreds-child-abusers-180-mainly-Asian-men-targeted-Manchester-alone.html
it looks like the authorities are planning a big counterpunch.
Goodness knows what the cost will be in terms of police time, court time, prison time....it just goes on. and on. and on. That's after the untold human suffering.
It's just a giant catastrophe. There are almost no words.0 -
People upset by Cameron going , really ?CarlottaVance said:
If he did he'd be going against public opinion, according to a poll in today's Express. I suspect he'll see his duty as to get Indy negotiations underway well ahead of the GE - and to set out the Westminster timetable, not one dreamt up by 8% of the UK....AndyJS said:In 20 days' time David Cameron may resign as prime minister of the United Kingdom. Difficult to believe that's really true, but it is.
I can't see that many people being upset a few raised eyebrows perhaps, but Ian leaving Great British Bake Off has a bigger impact on the nation.0 -
We can believe it when we see the convictions.taffys said:http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2738773/Police-plan-mass-raids-sex-gangs-Day-reckoning-hundreds-child-abusers-180-mainly-Asian-men-targeted-Manchester-alone.html
it looks like the authorities are planning a big counterpunch.
Goodness knows what the cost will be in terms of police time, court time, prison time....it just goes on. and on. and on. That's after the untold human suffering.
It's just a giant catastrophe. There are almost no words.0 -
SimonStClare said:
Is it just me, or is the BBC kicking the arse out of the ‘Ashya’ story? – Five days on the trot as their top story is more time than was given over to 180.000 Syrian deaths, Christian genocide by ISIS and the sexual abuse of 1400 girls in Rotherham – what’s the fascination, I don't get it.
From their (mental) point of view they're advertising a good use of the European Arrest Warrant.
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Perhaps this is one reason for our political leaders saying nothing.taffys said:http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2738773/Police-plan-mass-raids-sex-gangs-Day-reckoning-hundreds-child-abusers-180-mainly-Asian-men-targeted-Manchester-alone.html
it looks like the authorities are planning a big counterpunch.0 -
I think Cameron will survive. He will come out quickly, making a statesmanlike speech that mixes notes of regret with an unimpeachable line that the "yes" vote justifies the referendum; to argue to the contrary is fundamentally undemocratic. Plus the other main parties supported the referendum and Ukip wants one on Europe, so none are really in a position to make capital, though no doubt they will try.The risks for Cameron come from his disillusioned backbenchers and the media. If the loss of the union triggers a mass defection his position will become untenable; he would have to resign and the government could fall. The result would be a massacre at the next election. The Tory right has always had a masochistic streak, but turkeys don't vote for Christmas.
The media could use this as an opportunity to strike back, post Leveson. Certainly the Murdoch papers will be brutal; and the fourth estate never waste an opportunity to exercise their democratic accountability function. But I don't think they have the desire or ability to defenestrate Cameron, nor do I think the man on the street will view this as.Cameron's failure alone.
I still expect a no vote, by the way. But it will be close.
Presumably those saying Cameron should resign in the event if a yes vote are also planning a ticker tape parade for him if it is a no vote? I am still recovering from the party we threw Jeremy Hunt for the excellent Olympics that he organised...0 -
It's actually really hard to say. It might make people even more suicidal and self-destructive than they are already or it might make them go to war. No way of knowing.Socrates said:
If there is no major round of convictions after what is almost certainly millions of child rapes, then it would strongly test my patience in representative democracy. I hate to think what it would mean for people less grounded in liberalism than I am.MrJones said:
If nothing gets done about it even after it's been forced on the BBC then i don't know what will happen.
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The hundreds of thousands of Slavs that were killed because they weren't sufficiently German?Swiss_Bob said:
German is a race? Who knew.dr_spyn said:Trouble in Broxtowe.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-29004970
Perhaps Dr P needs to have a word.0 -
Faux outrage specialist Soubry quick to react I see.. hateful woman
Sums up our political leaders. Silent on mass Pakistani muslim rape of women, but woe betide you if you use the name Eva Braun.
Utterly depressing.0 -
I had thought to send a few K for Soubry's election fund, but she seems no better than Palmer.0
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If Arsenal can't do better than they are doing, maybe they should change their uniform from Red to Purple to give them that fighting spirit.0
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What's needed is that these men go away for a long, long time. When they're back out on the streets in three and a half years laughing about how free they are it's just appalling.taffys said:http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2738773/Police-plan-mass-raids-sex-gangs-Day-reckoning-hundreds-child-abusers-180-mainly-Asian-men-targeted-Manchester-alone.html
it looks like the authorities are planning a big counterpunch.
Goodness knows what the cost will be in terms of police time, court time, prison time....it just goes on. and on. and on. That's after the untold human suffering.
It's just a giant catastrophe. There are almost no words.
Another aspect of child abuse that needs to be dealt with is one that was told to me recently. A friend told me how a neighbour was appallingly abused by another man that lived on the street. There was a criminal case and the abuser had to go away for several years. But when he got out he moved back into the same house, directly opposite from the victim. The victim's family eventually had to sell up and move away after how harrowing it was.
This seems like something that should be automatically ended: if you abused a child, you should not be allowed to move within a half mile of them once you get out.0 -
isam said:
Why would a Eurosceptic MP with a leader promising a referendum leave that party if he thought they were serious about change?Flightpath said:
Carswell let the cat out of the bag on Thursday... Cameron is pretending he will campaign for reform in order to win votes when he has no intention of doing anything
Why indeed - and why would he then actively proceed to enable a Europhile labour leader into power?isam said:
Why would a Eurosceptic MP with a leader promising a referendum leave that party if he thought they were serious about change?Flightpath said:isam said:
...taffys said:''The fact is that UKIP voters don't care whether Cameron or Miliband is PM. Theyre both a million miles away from what we want.''
....
...
....isam said:
...taffys said:''The fact is that UKIP voters don't care whether Cameron or Miliband is PM. Theyre both a million miles away from what we want.''
...
Carswell let the cat out of the bag on Thursday... Cameron is pretending he will campaign for reform in order to win votes when he has no intention of doing anything
Just because Carswell does something stupid for whatever reason takes his mind does not mean that the excuses he gives are valid.
Carswell is making it up as he goes along. Cameron's statements are quite clear - a lot clearer than Carswells confused philosophy and there will be a referendum.
All of a sudden the Eurosceptics are doing all they can to make sure a referendum never happens.
Why?
One thing is certain the EU will not go away and neither Carswsell nor Farage have any clear notion of how we would live outside it. I point out to you yet again that in reality it will be very little different and for this possibility of a minor change they want to deliver a labour govt.
In reality thee extreme right have tasted blood and want to destroy the tory party. All this would do if successful would deliver a whole series of Labour or LabLib governments0 -
I think we know what is meant. The important thing is the mental process in using a derogatory description based on a person's ethnic heritage, apparently without reference to the individual's personality or actions. That process is one of racism, even if the 'race' in question is actually a nationality.Swiss_Bob said:
German is a race? Who knew.dr_spyn said:Trouble in Broxtowe.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-29004970
Perhaps Dr P needs to have a word.0 -
I guess my point is that I regularly hear that English isn't a race but the BBC article seems to go big on 'German race'.Socrates said:
The hundreds of thousands of Slavs that were killed because they weren't sufficiently German?Swiss_Bob said:
German is a race? Who knew.dr_spyn said:Trouble in Broxtowe.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-29004970
Perhaps Dr P needs to have a word.
Are the Austrians 'German' or Austrian?0 -
0
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@Flightpath
I can understand, albeit disagree with, the argument that voting UKIP in most seats in a FPTP system that you are helping to let in Ed Miliband. But how does this make any sense when referring to Carswell's defection? How does Carswell sitting with UKIP rather than the Tories make it more likely than Ed Miliband becomes PM?
Tories are parroting a view that doesn't make logical sense.0 -
Oh I seeFlightpath said:isam said:
Why would a Eurosceptic MP with a leader promising a referendum leave that party if he thought they were serious about change?Flightpath said:
Carswell let the cat out of the bag on Thursday... Cameron is pretending he will campaign for reform in order to win votes when he has no intention of doing anything
Why indeed - and why would he then actively proceed to enable a Europhile labour leader into power?isam said:
Why would a Eurosceptic MP with a leader promising a referendum leave that party if he thought they were serious about change?Flightpath said:isam said:
...taffys said:''The fact is that UKIP voters don't care whether Cameron or Miliband is PM. Theyre both a million miles away from what we want.''
....
...
....isam said:
...taffys said:''The fact is that UKIP voters don't care whether Cameron or Miliband is PM. Theyre both a million miles away from what we want.''
...
Carswell let the cat out of the bag on Thursday... Cameron is pretending he will campaign for reform in order to win votes when he has no intention of doing anything
Just because Carswell does something stupid for whatever reason takes his mind does not mean that the excuses he gives are valid.
Carswell is making it up as he goes along. Cameron's statements are quite clear - a lot clearer than Carswells confused philosophy and there will be a referendum.
All of a sudden the Eurosceptics are doing all they can to make sure a referendum never happens.
Why?
One thing is certain the EU will not go away and neither Carswsell nor Farage have any clear notion of how we would live outside it. I point out to you yet again that in reality it will be very little different and for this possibility of a minor change they want to deliver a labour govt.
In reality thee extreme right have tasted blood and want to destroy the tory party. All this would do if successful would deliver a whole series of Labour or LabLib governments
A politician who has worked closely with Cameron behind closed doors thinks he is insincere and saying things in public he doesnt mean in private to con votes, but you know better from the soundbites you hear0 -
I understand where you're coming from. The logic of race and ethnicity is full of holes.Swiss_Bob said:
I guess my point is that I regularly hear that English isn't a race but the BBC article seems to go big on 'German race'.Socrates said:
The hundreds of thousands of Slavs that were killed because they weren't sufficiently German?Swiss_Bob said:
German is a race? Who knew.dr_spyn said:Trouble in Broxtowe.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-29004970
Perhaps Dr P needs to have a word.
Are the Austrians 'German' or Austrian?0 -
I haven't exactly noticed UKIP storming the barricades on the Rotherham story, they're as silent as Cameron.MikeK said:
Ahah! You've found out that they're all the same as well. Time to join UKIP.PAW said:I had thought to send a few K for Soubry's election fund, but she seems no better than Palmer.
Farage has spent his time parading Carswell like his latest trophy, and Nuttall is nowhere to be seen.
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There was positive news for David Cameron. While some senior Tory sources confided that the Prime Minister would “inevitably feel he would have to step down” if he “lost Scotland”, members of the public indicated they would be much more forgiving. Only 26 per cent would want Mr Cameron’s scalp, compared with 45 per cent who felt he would be entitled to carry on leading the country. The rest, 29 per cent, were undecided.Alanbrooke said:
People upset by Cameron going , really ?CarlottaVance said:
If he did he'd be going against public opinion, according to a poll in today's Express. I suspect he'll see his duty as to get Indy negotiations underway well ahead of the GE - and to set out the Westminster timetable, not one dreamt up by 8% of the UK....AndyJS said:In 20 days' time David Cameron may resign as prime minister of the United Kingdom. Difficult to believe that's really true, but it is.
I can't see that many people being upset a few raised eyebrows perhaps, but Ian leaving Great British Bake Off has a bigger impact on the nation.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/505295/Alex-Salmond-s-currency-union-plans-prove-unpopular
Pretty consistent with other polling.
Voters don't seem to see giving Scotland a democratic vote a "failure".0 -
One must only wonder how the rest of the world manages to live outside it then.Flightpath said:isam said:
Why would a Eurosceptic MP with a leader promising a referendum leave that party if he thought they were serious about change?Flightpath said:
Carswell let the cat out of the bag on Thursday... Cameron is pretending he will campaign for reform in order to win votes when he has no intention of doing anything
Why indeed - and why would he then actively proceed to enable a Europhile labour leader into power?isam said:
Why would a Eurosceptic MP with a leader promising a referendum leave that party if he thought they were serious about change?Flightpath said:isam said:
...taffys said:''The fact is that UKIP voters don't care whether Cameron or Miliband is PM. Theyre both a million miles away from what we want.''
....
...
....isam said:
...taffys said:''The fact is that UKIP voters don't care whether Cameron or Miliband is PM. Theyre both a million miles away from what we want.''
...
Carswell let the cat out of the bag on Thursday... Cameron is pretending he will campaign for reform in order to win votes when he has no intention of doing anything
Just because Carswell does something stupid for whatever reason takes his mind does not mean that the excuses he gives are valid.
Carswell is making it up as he goes along. Cameron's statements are quite clear - a lot clearer than Carswells confused philosophy and there will be a referendum.
All of a sudden the Eurosceptics are doing all they can to make sure a referendum never happens.
Why?
One thing is certain the EU will not go away and neither Carswsell nor Farage have any clear notion of how we would live outside it. I point out to you yet again that in reality it will be very little different and for this possibility of a minor change they want to deliver a labour govt.
In reality thee extreme right have tasted blood and want to destroy the tory party. All this would do if successful would deliver a whole series of Labour or LabLib governments0 -
that's humour ? Oh well...Carnyx said:http://gregmoodie.com/patronising-bt-lady-is-released-into-the-wild/
And a bit of light indyrelief.0
