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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP Clacton price the big mover in today’s political betting market report
Inevitably given the Survation Clacton poll the big mover has been the UKIP by-election price – now rated as an 88% chance.
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The "1400" number in Rotherham was considered a "conservative" estimate. It's probably closer to 2000 or 2500. But let's assume Rotherham was one of the worst examples and the average town where this happened had just 700 abuse victims - half the 'conservative' Rotherham level.
The most horrific instances of abuse involved girls being prostituted out to men across a broad area. This could mean a dozen rapes in a night, whether the men came consecutively or gang raped her. If this happened a few times a week, then it's well possible some girls got raped a thousand times in a year. On the low side, girls more marginally on the edge of this might have just been targeted about once a month by a group of guys. That's still likely to be about 50 rapes a year if four or five rapists were involved. 100 rapes per year of an average victim seems conservative.
The youngest girls were targeted at 11 or 12. They seem to have been dropped by these gangs by the time they were 15 or 16. Given that some girls may have escaped after a shorter period of time, let's estimate the average period of abuse was probably about three years.
We are currently aware of this model of abuse definitely happening in Barking, Birmingham, Blackburn, Blackpool, Bradford, Derby, Ipswich, Keighley, Manchester, Nelson, Oldham, Oxford, Peterborough, Preston, Rochdale, Sheffield, Skipton and Telford in addition to Rotherham itself. I've also heard anecdotal reports on here about Tower Hamlets, Worcester and Luton. But let's keep ourselves grounded and and assume it only took place in the 19 towns mentioned.
700 victims per town x 100 rapes a year x three years' of abuse per victim x 19 towns.
Just under four million rapes. And this in a deliberate effort to scale down the numbers.
FOUR MILLION CHILD RAPES.
Four million rapes neglected or covered up by the establishment for fear of upsetting community sensitivities. And that's before we get to the torture, the psychological warfare and the outright murders.
People like Nick Palmer have said I seem to be too angry to engage with. But isn't four million child rapes the sort of thing that it's justified to get angry about? This must surely be the worst thing that has happened to our country since the Second World War.
And the Yes Twitter campaign - or was that just a coincidence?
You can probably add the Dewsbury/Batley conurbation, unless it was just being used as a bolt-hole for gangs from elsewhere: http://www.examiner.co.uk/news/west-yorkshire-news/kirklees-hotel-loses-licence-after-4884287
Scores more children as young as 13 miscarried or were forced to have abortions after attacks by Asian gangs on 1,400 girls.
One victim, who got pregnant TWICE to the same attacker, said: “I was groomed and abused, but the police took no action.”
The vulnerable youngster had an abortion at just 14 when her abuser threatened to have her killed if she gave birth to his baby.
Then he made her pregnant again just six months later – and allowed her to keep her child, but only if she became a Muslim.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/rotherham-child-sex-scandal-resulted-4137542
Be careful what you wish for!
"People like Nick Palmer have said I seem to be too angry to engage with."
Well of course you are, you keep raising facts that the establishment don't want raised. They cannot deny the facts so they label the person raising them. This was a well known tactic in the Soviet union in the 70's and 80s. A person of credibility who raised an inconvenient fact that could not be credibly refuted was labelled, anti-social or some other nonsense name. If he/she persisted he/she was deemed insane and put away.
I don't for one moment think that our good Dr. Palmer would go that far but labelling people as too angry to engage with is a nice way of saying, "He is a nutter and therefore you should ignore anything he says". The establishment keep trying this tactic but in the information age it doesn't work any more - see emergence of UKIP as an example - and the establishment don't know how to deal with it.
On your other point , are you saying that twitter should not be used for political comments or for people to arrange to meet to go to political events etc
Is this you saying that we should not have democracy but one side should have a police state and be able to ban free speech and movement of people and proscribe use of twitter.. very Tory
With all your orders and use of bold , cursing people out I think you like uniforms and discipline
52.5% of adults in Clacton are 55 or older. With differential turnout it's possible they could cast around 60-65% of votes.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/clacton/comment-page-8/#comments
Let's extend these studies, and also seek academic advice. These villainous tribal practices must be quenched, with steady application of the law and of education.
I am a lefty.
The Scottish Government's independent defence policy is "dangerous" and would leave Scotland and Nato less capable of dealing with current and future threats, a former Nato commander has said.
General Sir Richard Shirreff, who has just stepped down as Nato's deputy supreme allied commander Europe, said the SNP's plan is "amateurish" and that Scotland's future in Nato is "uncertain" if it leaves the UK and expels nuclear weapons from the Clyde.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/nato-former-chief-iscotland-defence-plan-is-dangerous.1409480011
Most British businesses want the UK to renegotiate its relationship with the EU, according to a British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) survey.
The lobby group said 60% of the 3,200 firms polled believed bringing some powers home would help the UK economy.
However, most wanted to stay in the EU - with a majority saying leaving would damage UK business prospects.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29002835
http://www.britishchambers.org.uk/press-office/press-releases/bcc-growing-support-for-re-negotiating-britain’s-relationship-with-the-eu.html
If you can't rubbish the idea, rubbish the person behind it. h/t Sir Humphrey
I would love to see the poll results for "replacing EU membership with a free trade agreement", which is what would actually happen.
On the Indy debate I see what you mean - putting half-hearted Labourites in charge of the BT campaign is not the best way of injecting passion into the No campaign. And what kind of campaign can win without some passion?. Well, hopefully, the BT campaign can. For those south of the border, the rationale was that the Labour working classes are key to the referendum and they will not be moved by appeals to British patriotism hence Darling's exclusive focus on the economics. However this has been frustrating to us who are moved by the importance of 300 years of shared history and achievement. And are angered by the sheer baloney, tendentiousness and nihilism of the Yes campaign.
On Clacton. Only chance for the Tories to get an even half-decent result is to go for an open primary and select a striking, preferably local, candidate on the Sarah Wollaston model. If the campaign then becomes a contest between two authentic personalities then Douglas Carswell may come under a bit more pressure. The maverick will always beat the party in a by-election (cf Galloway in Bradford).
As previously requested go and stalk someone else with your fantasies.
@Alanbrooke FPT
Well most of the shares in Cadbury would have been institutional investors. So the capital released by the sale would have reinvested in opportunities that they felt offered greater value. Whether they were right or wrong, who knows.
However, we mustn't forget that the Kraft CEO (I forget her name) lied. It is shameful that she wasn't held to account by the panel, and shameful that she refused to appear before a parliamentary committee.
They are not best placed to rebut the same argument from the SNP now.......
https://twitter.com/WingsScotland
Having women who are not allowed to learn English (as happened with the mother of a Bangladeshi uni friend of mine), or are not allowed to progress education (which is allegedly occurring) inflames the situation.
Educate women and girls to the same standard as men and boys, and you will start seeing a difference within a generation.
(Does this make me a feminist?)
Remind us of your expertise and experience in matters military?
We're less than a decade from an election in which a million people voted for the BNP. Not long on from when there was such hysteria about paedophiles that people were beating up paediatricians because it sounds the same. A widespread but facile understanding of something happening thousands of miles away means English Jews don't feel safe going about their daily business.
Yet Rotherham, lots of headlines, lots of angst, and then... what? No poll boost for UKIP or the Tories (maybe if the offenders were Romanian?). No vigilante attacks by the EDL against the very easily located men street grooming and catcalling young women. No resurgence of the BNP who made grooming gangs their single priority issue for much of the last decade.
I'm not saying I want those things, but their total absence surprises me.
(although some who left may not have done so because of Cameron but I cant be going down pin head dancing nonsense)
The fact is that UKIP voters don't care whether Cameron or Miliband is PM. Theyre both a million miles away from what we want.
Carswell worked with Cameron and talked about the EU referendum with him and his conclusion was to leave because he was insincere about his intentions.. that's what UKIP voters seem to think too
But just a clarification - you claim "burnt down" - twitter says "subject to arson attack" and shows a fire in the street outside steel shutters.
Got a source for "burnt down"?
In some ways it will be easier to fight Miliband because he isn't pretending to agree with conservative voters whilst wanting something else behind their back.
He's an honest leftist rather than a mendacious one.
What so many people seem to say is mass immigration is great as long as they all play by our set of rules, but as we have seen in the middle east, and are seeing in East London, Rotherham and Birmingham, the rules are different, and imposing ours on them doesn't work.
Sorry for the "us and them" tone, and I don't see it as a problem for all muslims, only in the areas where they are the majority.. so im not talking about your wife.. mixed marriages are probably the antidote for the problem
To be fair if I was in a community of vaguely Christian English people abroad I am sure Id stick with my own and we would have our own rules/schools etc separate from the rest of society.. its human nature, its why mass immigration doesn't work
Relevantly to the topic!
http://www.lavuelta.com/14/en/online/index.html?e=9
I believed Blair because I so wanted him to be what I thought he was.. but he was a lying rat.. now I don't vote Labour anymore
That's getting to the scale of it - and all the while the political class talking about low crime - such a sick joke.
just to add
"but let's assume Rotherham was one of the worst examples"
I think all the old textile towns around Lancashire, Yorkshire etc are about the same level as Rotherham (proportional to size) because they share all the same factors but apart from them yes, the other places mentioned maybe 10-50% Rotherham numbers.
There is a poll in The Sun on Sunday (p2) taken by the Conservatives in the days before Carswells defection.. haven't seen this before
How would you vote with or without Carswell as a Tory?
With Carswell standing as a Tory
43% Tory
30% UKIP
16% Labour
Without Carswell standing as a Tory
29% Tory
30% UKIP
21% Labour
(Obviously the UKIP score wihout Carswell as a Tory isn't with Carswell as a Kipper!)
"mixed marriages are probably the antidote for the problem"
Anecdote alert: one of my best friends from school ended up going to the same uni as me (indeed, he was on the floor below me in the halls of residence in the first year). His father was Pakistani, and his mother English. So it was very much a loving, mixed-race marriage. His father became a JP and was well known and respected in their local community.
Sadly, my friend's sister went out with an Englishman, and was disowned by most of the family (excepting my friend). Her father could marry an Englishwoman, but his daughter could only marry a Pakistani. She ended up running away with her partner - I have no idea what happened afterwards, but my friend was devastated at the 'loss' of a sister who could no longer contact him.
To make matters worse, my friend went out with a sweet English girl. His father said to him, in her presence: "It's okay to sow your seed, but you're not marrying her." I have that particular story from both sides.
So it's not just a case of mixed marriages; it's mixed cultures, and acceptance of the other culture. But then I would say that, being married to a Turkish atheist feminist. ;-)
Its certainly a conundrum. I wish I could give you an answer. Here are a couple of theories.
1. The enormity of the crime is such that there's an air of unreality about it. We could be talking about a Rwanda-sized event here. In our own back yard. People don't know how to react.
2. People are unsure of who the real culprits are - the muslims or the authorities who tolerated their crimes.
3. The doctrine of political correctness is so ingrained into the culture and laws of Britain, so much a default part of its fabric, that retaliation of any kind, even a peaceful kind like a march through Rotherham, seems inconceivable.
Start with most acquisitions fail to meet their objectives, then that the tax policies of Kraft moved the base overseas so now the rest of the UK has to make up the difference, then that the taxpayer subsidised the takeover via RBS, followed by the loss of jobs in the UK, I could go on.
In simple terms Charles this is just one of those issues where the national inetrest isn't aligned with investors. I often wonder if harder takeover rules would improve the standard of corporate governance. The objective of the average UK CEO seems to be to sell his business asap, if they were judged by organic growth more then things might improve. Likewise since by investors you mean fund managers rather then the people who actually own the money what if we stop them getting fast bucks just to line their own pockets ?
Yes, quite extraordinary when you think of it. Few folk seem to register that the outcome of a Yes vote would be political tumult both north and south of the border. Chickens coming home to roost both sides of the border. ("Whaddya mean we can't have a currency union? It's the sovereign will of the Scottish people.")
Cameron is a fairly straightforward typical leader and has laid out his position on the EU quite clearly and to me it makes sense. There is no reason to suggest he is being dissembling.
You are happy to accept that Carswell is speaking the truth but in reality there is little logic to what he says and from now on all; he says will be twisted to suit his own self interest and self justification.
Its perfectly reasonable to accept reform in the EU as a fair position. The dissembling position is to pretend that there will be some great difference if we leave.
Now it's been forced past the wall of silence I expect they're probably expecting something will be done about it - wrongly in my view but i'm pretty cynical now.
If nothing gets done about it even after it's been forced on the BBC then i don't know what will happen.
Now, if you happen to believe this - that integration is a highly difficult and sensitive matter that will take a long time - then surely you should at least agree that we shouldn't add more unintegrated people into the mix. But when you propose limiting immigration of the poor and unskilled, the same types oppose this too. There's no cohesive thinking at all.
Carswell let the cat out of the bag on Thursday... Cameron is pretending he will campaign for reform in order to win votes when he has no intention of doing anything
Only if you believe in hope over experience. Every British attempt ever to reform the EU for decades has floundered. From Wilson to Blair to Cameron. You have to be naive beyond belief to think anything substantial will happen to it.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-nottinghamshire-29004970
Perhaps Dr P needs to have a word.
it looks like the authorities are planning a big counterpunch.
Goodness knows what the cost will be in terms of police time, court time, prison time....it just goes on. and on. and on. That's after the untold human suffering.
It's just a giant catastrophe. There are almost no words.
I can't see that many people being upset a few raised eyebrows perhaps, but Ian leaving Great British Bake Off has a bigger impact on the nation.
From their (mental) point of view they're advertising a good use of the European Arrest Warrant.
The media could use this as an opportunity to strike back, post Leveson. Certainly the Murdoch papers will be brutal; and the fourth estate never waste an opportunity to exercise their democratic accountability function. But I don't think they have the desire or ability to defenestrate Cameron, nor do I think the man on the street will view this as.Cameron's failure alone.
I still expect a no vote, by the way. But it will be close.
Presumably those saying Cameron should resign in the event if a yes vote are also planning a ticker tape parade for him if it is a no vote? I am still recovering from the party we threw Jeremy Hunt for the excellent Olympics that he organised...
Sums up our political leaders. Silent on mass Pakistani muslim rape of women, but woe betide you if you use the name Eva Braun.
Utterly depressing.
Another aspect of child abuse that needs to be dealt with is one that was told to me recently. A friend told me how a neighbour was appallingly abused by another man that lived on the street. There was a criminal case and the abuser had to go away for several years. But when he got out he moved back into the same house, directly opposite from the victim. The victim's family eventually had to sell up and move away after how harrowing it was.
This seems like something that should be automatically ended: if you abused a child, you should not be allowed to move within a half mile of them once you get out.
Just because Carswell does something stupid for whatever reason takes his mind does not mean that the excuses he gives are valid.
Carswell is making it up as he goes along. Cameron's statements are quite clear - a lot clearer than Carswells confused philosophy and there will be a referendum.
All of a sudden the Eurosceptics are doing all they can to make sure a referendum never happens.
Why?
One thing is certain the EU will not go away and neither Carswsell nor Farage have any clear notion of how we would live outside it. I point out to you yet again that in reality it will be very little different and for this possibility of a minor change they want to deliver a labour govt.
In reality thee extreme right have tasted blood and want to destroy the tory party. All this would do if successful would deliver a whole series of Labour or LabLib governments
Are the Austrians 'German' or Austrian?
And a bit of light indyrelief.
I can understand, albeit disagree with, the argument that voting UKIP in most seats in a FPTP system that you are helping to let in Ed Miliband. But how does this make any sense when referring to Carswell's defection? How does Carswell sitting with UKIP rather than the Tories make it more likely than Ed Miliband becomes PM?
Tories are parroting a view that doesn't make logical sense.
A politician who has worked closely with Cameron behind closed doors thinks he is insincere and saying things in public he doesnt mean in private to con votes, but you know better from the soundbites you hear
Farage has spent his time parading Carswell like his latest trophy, and Nuttall is nowhere to be seen.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/505295/Alex-Salmond-s-currency-union-plans-prove-unpopular
Pretty consistent with other polling.
Voters don't seem to see giving Scotland a democratic vote a "failure".