Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Terrible front pages for Johnson as CON drops 28% – politicalbetting.com

1234579

Comments

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,162

    This site needs at least one contributor from the bona fide upper class, for balance. (It could also do with more w/c contributors, mind you).

    So it's a shame that Charles has departed.

    Yes this site is swarming with the kind of people who buy their own furniture. Charles lent it a touch of genuine class.
    Though I recall Charlie once recommending Samuel Windsor shoes. Once I’d picked myself up from the floor, I felt a burst of gratification that the old saw about poshos being tight as fuck was confirmed.
    I don't know anything about the world of posh shoes. I always get my shoes from Clarkes.
    Clarks are pretty honest about what they are, SW are a kind of faux Palladian house built on the very cheap. Both manufacturers get most of their product made in India nowadays.
    Been buying Clarks since the 1970s. Very peeved when they stopped doing a particular country style shoe after 30 years.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,162
    eek said:

    This site needs at least one contributor from the bona fide upper class, for balance. (It could also do with more w/c contributors, mind you).

    So it's a shame that Charles has departed.

    Yes this site is swarming with the kind of people who buy their own furniture. Charles lent it a touch of genuine class.
    Though I recall Charlie once recommending Samuel Windsor shoes. Once I’d picked myself up from the floor, I felt a burst of gratification that the old saw about poshos being tight as fuck was confirmed.
    I don't know anything about the world of posh shoes. I always get my shoes from Clarkes.
    I personally now only get Solovair for proper shoes - simply because you can be 100% sure they are made in the UK. Plus the factory tour and shop are both great fun - it literally if a factory between rows of houses.

    Trainers however are whatever converse style things take my fancy.
    That's interesting. What are their wide fittings like? I've got broad feet - worse as I grow older.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Accidentally damning line from Boris Johnson's spokesman at daily briefing, when asked – amid talk about party-gate – if Johnson believes he is a good prime minister: “I don’t think self-reflection is his priority.”
    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1481600193388810249
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    First up, as always, vote intention. Labour are registering a NINE point lead over the Conservatives:

    CON🔵33%
    LAB🔴42%
    LD🟠11%
    GRN🟢4%
    SNP🟡3%
    REFUK 3%
    PC 1%
    OTHER 2%

    (2/n)
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,704

    Totally off topic I thought I would give an update on air source heat pumps. A local County Council we deal with has a plan to replace ageing boilers in schools with ASHP and last year carried out a cost analysis/feasability study into it. They found that to install an ASHP system in a school would cost between 5-10 times as much as a new gas boiler system. They also estimate that due to the vast increase in the use of electricity to power the ASHPs there would only be limited energy savings. Therefore they are going to recommend to the Councillors to install new gas boilers not ASHPs.

    ASHP's remind me of a Sinclair C5, great idea on paper and clever technology, they are just not practical.

    Whoever suggested an ASHP retrofit for a school was clearly a moron.

    It would probably work in a new build school though.
    I think the suggestion comes from TV reports on ASHPs when it just looks like you can swap your boiler for an ASHP, save money and save the planet. There is never any mention of all the other stuff that goes with an ASHP. Councils have to try and decarbon everything now, however the costs are eyewatering.

    We think that hydrogen is the future, probably in 5-10 years time.
    80% of the Networrk is already Hydrogen enabled and new boilers being sold need to be Hydrogen compatible.

    Baxi have houses in Gateshead that are running on Hydrogen at the moment. The other boiler manufacturers are heavily going into Hydrogen too. I read a paper on Linkedin from a former technical manager at Ideal about it. Most interesting. Challenges for sure but alot of time and money going into it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,591

    Nigelb said:

    MPs being sent out to defend Boris keep describing his apology as 'fulsome'.

    They might want to check their dictionaries..

    "fulsome
    in British English
    (ˈfʊlsəm)
    ADJECTIVE - 1) excessive or insincere, esp in an offensive or distasteful way"
    https://www.collinsdictionary.com/dictionary/english/fulsome

    Or maybe they did?

    Twelfth Night.
    If it be aught to the old tune, my lord,
    It is as fat and fulsome to mine ear
    As howling after music.


    Fat and fulsome - not a bad pair of epithets for our PM.
    Words mean whatever the speaker intends and the hearer understands. If fulsome is understood and applied in a different way then it will get a new meaning.
    Agreed.
    Just doing my bit to reinforce the meaning I prefer here. :smile:
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842
    Scott_xP said:

    Accidentally damning line from Boris Johnson's spokesman at daily briefing, when asked – amid talk about party-gate – if Johnson believes he is a good prime minister: “I don’t think self-reflection is his priority.”
    https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1481600193388810249

    Is that accidental?
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Scott_xP said:

    First up, as always, vote intention. Labour are registering a NINE point lead over the Conservatives:

    CON🔵33%
    LAB🔴42%
    LD🟠11%
    GRN🟢4%
    SNP🟡3%
    REFUK 3%
    PC 1%
    OTHER 2%

    (2/n)

    Only 9 points behind Labour so in the HYUFD's eyes the Tories and Boris have nothing to worry about
  • Scott_xP said:

    First up, as always, vote intention. Labour are registering a NINE point lead over the Conservatives:

    CON🔵33%
    LAB🔴42%
    LD🟠11%
    GRN🟢4%
    SNP🟡3%
    REFUK 3%
    PC 1%
    OTHER 2%

    (2/n)

    Is that all
  • TimS said:

    TimS said:

    MattW said:

    I would suggest the world is seeing the results of too much haste to move to green and insufficient planning for transitional energy which is highlighted by the controversy over Cambo oil field in Scotland

    This is precisely the wrong conclusion.

    Consider the alternative scenarios. Suppose we had moved to renewables more slowly and were burning more coal and gas now. Would that be better? Coal prices are also up now, we would be having even higher prices for gas and electricity.

    However, if we'd moved to renewables more quickly, we'd need to be burning less gas and so our electricity prices would be lower.
    The point the analyst was making is that the transition did not take into account a sensible period to complete it and as a result, for the reasons he stated, gas is the transition energy and the demand for the foreseeable future is going to cause serious costs of loving crisis for government's worldwide

    It may be of interest but I am looking out on 'Gwynt y Mor' wind farm and there is not a breath of wind and the turbines are barely turning
    It's the same old rubbish of wanting to delay action, and if you go straight to renewables you don't need gas as a transition fuel.

    We all know the wind doesn't always blow, which is why we need a diverse range of energy sources (including tidal, Moroccan solar, Norwegian hydroelectric, Icelandic geothermal, perhaps some nuclear and an excess of wind that can be stored).
    The reality is that storage is going to end up much, much higher than anyone can imagine.

    By 2050 I expect we'll have many TW of storage plugged into the network.
    Interesting point (excuse pun). If policy makers have any sense (a big ask) they will push for localised storage or even household such as Tesla Powerwall (oh dear I will be accused of being a Tesla bore again)
    On wind not blowing, it is worth a note that as the UK windfarm base has expanded, the Load Factor of new offshore wind is now just under 60%, whilst for existing onshore wind it is under 27%. This problem is being dealt with progressively.
    https://www.renewableuk.com/page/UKWEDExplained/Statistics-Explained.htm

    Load Factor = power delivered vs theoretical maximum.

    On storage, we will end up with boxes of tricks in the Smart Meter that manage local storage, and optimise battery usage. An issue is the lifetime in cycles of current Li batteries.
    I think fixed (dispersed or central) storage is a far better answer than using car batteries. The latter is very inefficient because you are adding weight to a vehicle that needs to be propelled around the place, and it's really only ever going to be storage for car travel anyway - would be a difficult sell to have people agree to the grid drawing off power from their car at peak times when everyone is so range-anxious.
    Cars have to have range for the longest journey you'll need, between charges but most of the time you're doing short, predictable ones, so I'm sure plenty of people will be happy to set their charger to "free money" when they expect to be doing their routine.
    I wouldn't, certainly not beyond a couple of kwhs. My Zoe has a range of 190m at best, and that's not unusual. Would I be happy for the grid to draw it down to 170, say? Maybe, but how often am I fully charged anyway? I certainly wouldn't want it taking me much below that. The point of a car is the flexibility to be able to jump in at any time and go where you want. Even if most of the time you are pottering around town, you want to keep charged up in case the mood takes you for a trip to the seaside or you have to head up the motorway to visit a sick relative. The downside of EVs is the time it takes to charge so mentally there's greater need for reassurance that the battery is full than with an ICE.

    Perhaps once ranges are routinely 500+ miles, or rapid charging in 30 minutes is widely available at home, this may change.
    With high ranges I imagine smart hybrid systems will work well.

    Eg just plug in and forget your vehicle at home. It might then charge to 50% at any price, charge to 75% if the price is reasonable, charge up to 100% if the price is very cheap and sell back to the grid down to 75% if the price is high.

    25% of your own battery being flexibly used to make some free money may not be that many kWh from your own vehicle but multiplied nation wide that is potentially a few hundred GWh available.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842
    edited January 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    First up, as always, vote intention. Labour are registering a NINE point lead over the Conservatives:

    CON🔵33%
    LAB🔴42%
    LD🟠11%
    GRN🟢4%
    SNP🟡3%
    REFUK 3%
    PC 1%
    OTHER 2%

    (2/n)

    Bang goes the "Labour aren't even at 40%" line of yesterday.
    Very low Green share. More in line with what might be expected with any prospect of a Labour win.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,346
    Taz said:

    Totally off topic I thought I would give an update on air source heat pumps. A local County Council we deal with has a plan to replace ageing boilers in schools with ASHP and last year carried out a cost analysis/feasability study into it. They found that to install an ASHP system in a school would cost between 5-10 times as much as a new gas boiler system. They also estimate that due to the vast increase in the use of electricity to power the ASHPs there would only be limited energy savings. Therefore they are going to recommend to the Councillors to install new gas boilers not ASHPs.

    ASHP's remind me of a Sinclair C5, great idea on paper and clever technology, they are just not practical.

    Whoever suggested an ASHP retrofit for a school was clearly a moron.

    It would probably work in a new build school though.
    I think the suggestion comes from TV reports on ASHPs when it just looks like you can swap your boiler for an ASHP, save money and save the planet. There is never any mention of all the other stuff that goes with an ASHP. Councils have to try and decarbon everything now, however the costs are eyewatering.

    We think that hydrogen is the future, probably in 5-10 years time.
    80% of the Networrk is already Hydrogen enabled and new boilers being sold need to be Hydrogen compatible.

    Baxi have houses in Gateshead that are running on Hydrogen at the moment. The other boiler manufacturers are heavily going into Hydrogen too. I read a paper on Linkedin from a former technical manager at Ideal about it. Most interesting. Challenges for sure but alot of time and money going into it.
    Im sure it will happen, there will be challenges but it will be the future. ASHP simply are not.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited January 2022

    Scott_xP said:

    First up, as always, vote intention. Labour are registering a NINE point lead over the Conservatives:

    CON🔵33%
    LAB🔴42%
    LD🟠11%
    GRN🟢4%
    SNP🟡3%
    REFUK 3%
    PC 1%
    OTHER 2%

    (2/n)

    Is that all
    HYUFD will be dancing in the streets and organising street parties, as well as a huge carnival float covered in flowers, spelling out "We Love You Boris ! " ;.)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited January 2022
    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    First up, as always, vote intention. Labour are registering a NINE point lead over the Conservatives:

    CON🔵33%
    LAB🔴42%
    LD🟠11%
    GRN🟢4%
    SNP🟡3%
    REFUK 3%
    PC 1%
    OTHER 2%

    (2/n)

    Bang goes the "Labour aren't even at 40%" line of yesterday.
    Tories now up 5% to 33% from 28% in last night's Yougov however and Labour lead cut from 10% last night to 9% already after Boris' apology. (It was taken partly this morning as well as yesterday by focaldata).

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1481595080456683521?s=20

    If we see more polls like that Boris should survive even if there is a VONC
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,463
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    First up, as always, vote intention. Labour are registering a NINE point lead over the Conservatives:

    CON🔵33%
    LAB🔴42%
    LD🟠11%
    GRN🟢4%
    SNP🟡3%
    REFUK 3%
    PC 1%
    OTHER 2%

    (2/n)

    Only 9 points behind Labour so in the HYUFD's eyes the Tories and Boris have nothing to worry about
    And an improvement of 5pp on last night's You Gov! Boris's apology at PMQs has clearly gone down a treat.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    MattW said:

    I would suggest the world is seeing the results of too much haste to move to green and insufficient planning for transitional energy which is highlighted by the controversy over Cambo oil field in Scotland

    This is precisely the wrong conclusion.

    Consider the alternative scenarios. Suppose we had moved to renewables more slowly and were burning more coal and gas now. Would that be better? Coal prices are also up now, we would be having even higher prices for gas and electricity.

    However, if we'd moved to renewables more quickly, we'd need to be burning less gas and so our electricity prices would be lower.
    The point the analyst was making is that the transition did not take into account a sensible period to complete it and as a result, for the reasons he stated, gas is the transition energy and the demand for the foreseeable future is going to cause serious costs of loving crisis for government's worldwide

    It may be of interest but I am looking out on 'Gwynt y Mor' wind farm and there is not a breath of wind and the turbines are barely turning
    It's the same old rubbish of wanting to delay action, and if you go straight to renewables you don't need gas as a transition fuel.

    We all know the wind doesn't always blow, which is why we need a diverse range of energy sources (including tidal, Moroccan solar, Norwegian hydroelectric, Icelandic geothermal, perhaps some nuclear and an excess of wind that can be stored).
    The reality is that storage is going to end up much, much higher than anyone can imagine.

    By 2050 I expect we'll have many TW of storage plugged into the network.
    Interesting point (excuse pun). If policy makers have any sense (a big ask) they will push for localised storage or even household such as Tesla Powerwall (oh dear I will be accused of being a Tesla bore again)
    On wind not blowing, it is worth a note that as the UK windfarm base has expanded, the Load Factor of new offshore wind is now just under 60%, whilst for existing onshore wind it is under 27%. This problem is being dealt with progressively.
    https://www.renewableuk.com/page/UKWEDExplained/Statistics-Explained.htm

    Load Factor = power delivered vs theoretical maximum.

    On storage, we will end up with boxes of tricks in the Smart Meter that manage local storage, and optimise battery usage. An issue is the lifetime in cycles of current Li batteries.
    I think fixed (dispersed or central) storage is a far better answer than using car batteries. The latter is very inefficient because you are adding weight to a vehicle that needs to be propelled around the place, and it's really only ever going to be storage for car travel anyway - would be a difficult sell to have people agree to the grid drawing off power from their car at peak times when everyone is so range-anxious.
    Cars have to have range for the longest journey you'll need, between charges but most of the time you're doing short, predictable ones, so I'm sure plenty of people will be happy to set their charger to "free money" when they expect to be doing their routine.
    I wouldn't, certainly not beyond a couple of kwhs. My Zoe has a range of 190m at best, and that's not unusual. Would I be happy for the grid to draw it down to 170, say? Maybe, but how often am I fully charged anyway? I certainly wouldn't want it taking me much below that. The point of a car is the flexibility to be able to jump in at any time and go where you want. Even if most of the time you are pottering around town, you want to keep charged up in case the mood takes you for a trip to the seaside or you have to head up the motorway to visit a sick relative. The downside of EVs is the time it takes to charge so mentally there's greater need for reassurance that the battery is full than with an ICE.

    Perhaps once ranges are routinely 500+ miles, or rapid charging in 30 minutes is widely available at home, this may change.
    With high ranges I imagine smart hybrid systems will work well.

    Eg just plug in and forget your vehicle at home. It might then charge to 50% at any price, charge to 75% if the price is reasonable, charge up to 100% if the price is very cheap and sell back to the grid down to 75% if the price is high.

    25% of your own battery being flexibly used to make some free money may not be that many kWh from your own vehicle but multiplied nation wide that is potentially a few hundred GWh available.
    Yes, except that the car and charger will be leased - and it will be the company that owns them making the margin calls, not the consumer.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited January 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    First up, as always, vote intention. Labour are registering a NINE point lead over the Conservatives:

    CON🔵33%
    LAB🔴42%
    LD🟠11%
    GRN🟢4%
    SNP🟡3%
    REFUK 3%
    PC 1%
    OTHER 2%

    (2/n)

    Source? Pollster?

    https://mobile.twitter.com/focaldataHQ/status/1481594011857166341
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,633

    This site needs at least one contributor from the bona fide upper class, for balance. (It could also do with more w/c contributors, mind you).

    So it's a shame that Charles has departed.

    Yes this site is swarming with the kind of people who buy their own furniture. Charles lent it a touch of genuine class.
    Though I recall Charlie once recommending Samuel Windsor shoes. Once I’d picked myself up from the floor, I felt a burst of gratification that the old saw about poshos being tight as fuck was confirmed.
    I don't know anything about the world of posh shoes. I always get my shoes from Clarkes.
    I had two pairs of riding boots made - not to be posh, but I found a chap who was custom making boots for motorcycle usage - armoured inserts and everything. He charged less to make a pair of boots than quite a few places were charging for brand new.

    I even got him to make a pair of buckled field boots based on an old picture.....
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,463
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    First up, as always, vote intention. Labour are registering a NINE point lead over the Conservatives:

    CON🔵33%
    LAB🔴42%
    LD🟠11%
    GRN🟢4%
    SNP🟡3%
    REFUK 3%
    PC 1%
    OTHER 2%

    (2/n)

    Bang goes the "Labour aren't even at 40%" line of yesterday.
    Tories now up 5% to 33% from 28% in last night's Yougov however and Labour lead cut from 10% last night to 9% already after Boris' apology
    Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha. Seriously?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    This site needs at least one contributor from the bona fide upper class, for balance. (It could also do with more w/c contributors, mind you).

    So it's a shame that Charles has departed.

    Yes this site is swarming with the kind of people who buy their own furniture. Charles lent it a touch of genuine class.
    Though I recall Charlie once recommending Samuel Windsor shoes. Once I’d picked myself up from the floor, I felt a burst of gratification that the old saw about poshos being tight as fuck was confirmed.
    I don't know anything about the world of posh shoes. I always get my shoes from Clarkes.
    I had two pairs of riding boots made - not to be posh, but I found a chap who was custom making boots for motorcycle usage - armoured inserts and everything. He charged less to make a pair of boots than quite a few places were charging for brand new.

    I even got him to make a pair of buckled field boots based on an old picture.....
    Is he still going?
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,168
    edited January 2022
    dixiedean said:

    Rees-Mogg's intervention is revealing. He clearly thinks that Boris's critics are just oiks getting above their station. This view - along with the conviction that Brexit is a miracle and Boris is the nation's saviour - is presumably shared by the rest of the ERG crowd, which now dominates the party. In conclusion: Boris stays.

    Yes. @HYUFD is spot as always when it comes to internal Tory politics. JRM very much is the Tories now. Not some outlier. He is the mainstream. It's no good ex Tories just hoping this faction will see the light and change. Only a defeat will do that.
    I think you are overstating personal loyalty to Johnson in the Parliamentary party. No doubt there are some Tory MPs who personally like him a lot and, for new MPs, feel personally grateful for his role in making them MPs in 2019. But he is not a sympathetic figure - they all know he's a selfish, dishonest, disloyal sh1t, and if they didn't before they damned well do now. His case is and has always been that he's a winner. If that goes, there is nothing left.

    As to JRM, his interests in the matter are very clear. His career is highly dependent on Johnson and his seat is probably not in huge danger (never say never, but he has a nicely divided opposition vote). I'll tell you now that JRM will not be in Johnson's successor's cabinet. So Johnson staying is very clearly in his personal interests and he'll go out to bat for him. He also may be in the small minority who like the man.

    But, for a backbencher in particular but also for many ministers, the issue is whether Johnson is still a winner or whether 2022 Johnson has irretrievably lost what 2019 Johnson had in terms of public appeal - it really is as simple as that.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,267
    Phil said:

    Phil said:

    Totally off topic I thought I would give an update on air source heat pumps. A local County Council we deal with has a plan to replace ageing boilers in schools with ASHP and last year carried out a cost analysis/feasability study into it. They found that to install an ASHP system in a school would cost between 5-10 times as much as a new gas boiler system. They also estimate that due to the vast increase in the use of electricity to power the ASHPs there would only be limited energy savings. Therefore they are going to recommend to the Councillors to install new gas boilers not ASHPs.

    ASHP's remind me of a Sinclair C5, great idea on paper and clever technology, they are just not practical.

    Our experience is not encouraging, at least for big houses.

    We live in an old farmhouse. It's a large house and insulation is poor. However, we had a specialist firm do the calculations, and a hybrid ASHP system with oil boiler backup looks technically feasible. The oil boiler would kick in when it's very cold and especially if at the same time we are heating all the rooms, but for much of the time the twin ASHPs would be adequate. Also we could run the ASHPs for longer during the middle of the day and at night, when the oil boiler is currently switched off, thus giving better background heat and compensating for the lower peak power of the ASHPs. Overall, we could probably reduce our oil consumption by 80% or more.

    So far so good, but the costs are absolutely eye-watering. Before we even start thinking about the system itself, we would need to upgrade to a 3-phase mains supply. That's not particularly hard - the 11Kv line goes through our land - but UK Power networks still quoted £20K. Add in the rewiring, the heat pumps, the header tanks, the replumbing, the listed building application etc etc, and it's looking like a total well north of £60K. Possibly a lot more. A ground-source system, which would be necessary if we were trying to rely exclusively on the heat-pump, would be very much more expensive even that that.

    OK, this is not a typical house, but even so...
    Sounds similar to our own considerations. Its a 200ish year old detached building with a Grade C listing. Windows need replacing as most of the sashes are stuck / painted or nailed shut and secondary glazing behind them.

    There are drafts which I am chasing down with filler. But fundamentally all new windows are needed, and £50k has been quoted. That buys a lot of heating oil! So having done the maths we decided to patch the drafts where we find them and keep burning oil.

    Its a new boiler as well. Looked at Heat Pump and Biomass options but the ROI wasn't there. There is no point spending £lots to save £little.
    If gas prices stay this high (and presumably start to drag oil prices up too as people shift to alternate sources of energy) then that economic gap is going to narrow significantly.

    Lots of things start making sense when your energy input cost has gone up by a factor of five!

    (As an aside, has anyone kicked the planning people into pulling their heads out of their backsides & permitting double glazing in Grade II+ listings where the original windows are single glazed? Until recently I believe they were still insisting on like-for-like replacement which is completely insane given the world we live in right now.)
    There have been some instances where, when windows are being completely replaced, repro sash windows using double glazing have been allowed, IIRC. The kind where it's a proper, full sash window, with individual glazing in each pane, using narrow spaced double glazing.
    Yes, when the sash windows in our house were renovated, every pane was double glazed using the existing wooden window frames. It’s perfectly doable & the change in external impressive is next to non-existant. But I have read of this kind of glazing change being denied by conservationists in listed buildings on the grounds that “it changes the external look of the building”. Fortunately ours is a bog standard Edwardian terrace, so no chance of any conservations insisting on ludicrous conditions.

    (Obviously, the payback on doing this didn’t make a great deal of sense in purely financial terms at the time, but the increase in comfort level - no draughts! - was worth the outlay. Our previous house was a nightmare keep warm in winter.)
    I had constituents who lived in a tumbledown cottage at the end of a farm track in the middle of nowhere (outer Moorgreen) looking out over a disused field. Literally nobody ever walks past except them. Their application to have double glazing in one window was refused because it "might change the look of the window".

    In a similar vein, a colleague who lived in a conservation area was told he couldn't replace his rotting fence with certain materials even if they were painted to look absolutely identical, because only the original material could be tolerated to preserve consistency on that road.

    It's hard to resist calls for more conservation areas (who can be against preserving our historic landscape?), but when they're applied with that level of fanaticism, I think some pushback is needed.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Scott_xP said:

    First up, as always, vote intention. Labour are registering a NINE point lead over the Conservatives:

    CON🔵33%
    LAB🔴42%
    LD🟠11%
    GRN🟢4%
    SNP🟡3%
    REFUK 3%
    PC 1%
    OTHER 2%

    (2/n)

    Source? Pollster?
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1481598159793147904?t=0Sq3T2dSTGAkQPYhT410sg&s=19
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    RobD said:

    What on earth is Chatham House? Is this like a swingers thing?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chatham_House_Rule
    Ah, so it is a swingers thing.
    https://twitter.com/NoContextFBUK/status/1481522634026323968
    I remember the days when an Austin Maxi was the only option.
    What a wonderful machine! (not)
    The Maxi had some excellent Issigonis ideas such as standard 5 speed transmission and anticipated the 'monospace' trend by at least 15 years. The cost cutting decision to reuse the Austin 1800 door panel tooling resulted in an ungainly appearance that it never overcame.

    If you look at its contemporary competition it looks a lot more like modern car than any of them.
    We had one in our family. To be fair, other than a terrible problem with rust it was a pretty good car for it's day
    Didn't it have a tendency to oversteer?
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,921
    Just one local by-election today - a Con defence in Wychavon. Don't wait up - the count is tomorrow.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,633
    TimS said:

    Totally off topic I thought I would give an update on air source heat pumps. A local County Council we deal with has a plan to replace ageing boilers in schools with ASHP and last year carried out a cost analysis/feasability study into it. They found that to install an ASHP system in a school would cost between 5-10 times as much as a new gas boiler system. They also estimate that due to the vast increase in the use of electricity to power the ASHPs there would only be limited energy savings. Therefore they are going to recommend to the Councillors to install new gas boilers not ASHPs.

    ASHP's remind me of a Sinclair C5, great idea on paper and clever technology, they are just not practical.

    Whoever suggested an ASHP retrofit for a school was clearly a moron.

    It would probably work in a new build school though.
    I think the suggestion comes from TV reports on ASHPs when it just looks like you can swap your boiler for an ASHP, save money and save the planet. There is never any mention of all the other stuff that goes with an ASHP. Councils have to try and decarbon everything now, however the costs are eyewatering.

    We think that hydrogen is the future, probably in 5-10 years time.
    It's one of those mysteries though where nobody can explain why ASHPs are very common on the continent yet the UK seems to have all these problems with affordability and effectiveness. I have a house in a hamlet in central France and the neighbours almost all have ASHPs. It's just fitted as a matter of course every time someone does a renovation.
    It is fairly recent thing, in the UK, that complete-rip-out-a-redo renovations have become a thing for "ordinary" people. The number of places where you see a bodge on top of a bodge on top of a bodge going back to the 50s....

    If you lose everything (including roof and some floors) and start again, it becomes much easier to do a number of things.
  • Sandpit said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    MattW said:

    I would suggest the world is seeing the results of too much haste to move to green and insufficient planning for transitional energy which is highlighted by the controversy over Cambo oil field in Scotland

    This is precisely the wrong conclusion.

    Consider the alternative scenarios. Suppose we had moved to renewables more slowly and were burning more coal and gas now. Would that be better? Coal prices are also up now, we would be having even higher prices for gas and electricity.

    However, if we'd moved to renewables more quickly, we'd need to be burning less gas and so our electricity prices would be lower.
    The point the analyst was making is that the transition did not take into account a sensible period to complete it and as a result, for the reasons he stated, gas is the transition energy and the demand for the foreseeable future is going to cause serious costs of loving crisis for government's worldwide

    It may be of interest but I am looking out on 'Gwynt y Mor' wind farm and there is not a breath of wind and the turbines are barely turning
    It's the same old rubbish of wanting to delay action, and if you go straight to renewables you don't need gas as a transition fuel.

    We all know the wind doesn't always blow, which is why we need a diverse range of energy sources (including tidal, Moroccan solar, Norwegian hydroelectric, Icelandic geothermal, perhaps some nuclear and an excess of wind that can be stored).
    The reality is that storage is going to end up much, much higher than anyone can imagine.

    By 2050 I expect we'll have many TW of storage plugged into the network.
    Interesting point (excuse pun). If policy makers have any sense (a big ask) they will push for localised storage or even household such as Tesla Powerwall (oh dear I will be accused of being a Tesla bore again)
    On wind not blowing, it is worth a note that as the UK windfarm base has expanded, the Load Factor of new offshore wind is now just under 60%, whilst for existing onshore wind it is under 27%. This problem is being dealt with progressively.
    https://www.renewableuk.com/page/UKWEDExplained/Statistics-Explained.htm

    Load Factor = power delivered vs theoretical maximum.

    On storage, we will end up with boxes of tricks in the Smart Meter that manage local storage, and optimise battery usage. An issue is the lifetime in cycles of current Li batteries.
    I think fixed (dispersed or central) storage is a far better answer than using car batteries. The latter is very inefficient because you are adding weight to a vehicle that needs to be propelled around the place, and it's really only ever going to be storage for car travel anyway - would be a difficult sell to have people agree to the grid drawing off power from their car at peak times when everyone is so range-anxious.
    Cars have to have range for the longest journey you'll need, between charges but most of the time you're doing short, predictable ones, so I'm sure plenty of people will be happy to set their charger to "free money" when they expect to be doing their routine.
    I wouldn't, certainly not beyond a couple of kwhs. My Zoe has a range of 190m at best, and that's not unusual. Would I be happy for the grid to draw it down to 170, say? Maybe, but how often am I fully charged anyway? I certainly wouldn't want it taking me much below that. The point of a car is the flexibility to be able to jump in at any time and go where you want. Even if most of the time you are pottering around town, you want to keep charged up in case the mood takes you for a trip to the seaside or you have to head up the motorway to visit a sick relative. The downside of EVs is the time it takes to charge so mentally there's greater need for reassurance that the battery is full than with an ICE.

    Perhaps once ranges are routinely 500+ miles, or rapid charging in 30 minutes is widely available at home, this may change.
    With high ranges I imagine smart hybrid systems will work well.

    Eg just plug in and forget your vehicle at home. It might then charge to 50% at any price, charge to 75% if the price is reasonable, charge up to 100% if the price is very cheap and sell back to the grid down to 75% if the price is high.

    25% of your own battery being flexibly used to make some free money may not be that many kWh from your own vehicle but multiplied nation wide that is potentially a few hundred GWh available.
    Yes, except that the car and charger will be leased - and it will be the company that owns them making the margin calls, not the consumer.
    If it is then the consumer will benefit from cheaper leasing costs ultimately.

    Either way the system will work and in such a competitive environment the consumers should win one way or another.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited January 2022

    Scott_xP said:

    First up, as always, vote intention. Labour are registering a NINE point lead over the Conservatives:

    CON🔵33%
    LAB🔴42%
    LD🟠11%
    GRN🟢4%
    SNP🟡3%
    REFUK 3%
    PC 1%
    OTHER 2%

    (2/n)

    Is that all
    Depends which polling firm. The only right way to do it is trends between polls from the same pollster.

    Also how that polls comes to sit in the trend from other pollsters as time develops.

    Also field work dates, was it all done the last couple of days.

    Also not to belittle just how big 9 is.

    And some talk about polling lag between events dear boy events and polls reflecting them of up to weeks, though personally I’m not sure that’s been properly tested.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    Very heated moment in the Commons as Labour's Wes Streeting says: "The Prime Minister is not fit to lick the boot of NHS staff in this country."
    https://twitter.com/danbloom1/status/1481605046433370113
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,346
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    First up, as always, vote intention. Labour are registering a NINE point lead over the Conservatives:

    CON🔵33%
    LAB🔴42%
    LD🟠11%
    GRN🟢4%
    SNP🟡3%
    REFUK 3%
    PC 1%
    OTHER 2%

    (2/n)

    Only 9 points behind Labour so in the HYUFD's eyes the Tories and Boris have nothing to worry about
    I thought they would be further behind, the press coverage is as bad as it can get for a PM.

    On a more general point regarding the leaks surely any future PM will want to bring in a new law to make it a criminal offence for any such leaking. SKS must be loving it at the moment but at the back of his mind he must be thinking this could happen to me if I become PM.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184
    Over 3m positive covid tests reported yesterday. Over 1 in 3000 of the world's population, on a single day.
    Over 1 in 500 of the world's population have tested positive within the past week.

    Given the tiny numbers coming from China and the paucity of testing in much of the world, this is quite eye-watering.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,633
    MrEd said:

    This site needs at least one contributor from the bona fide upper class, for balance. (It could also do with more w/c contributors, mind you).

    So it's a shame that Charles has departed.

    Yes this site is swarming with the kind of people who buy their own furniture. Charles lent it a touch of genuine class.
    Though I recall Charlie once recommending Samuel Windsor shoes. Once I’d picked myself up from the floor, I felt a burst of gratification that the old saw about poshos being tight as fuck was confirmed.
    I don't know anything about the world of posh shoes. I always get my shoes from Clarkes.
    I had two pairs of riding boots made - not to be posh, but I found a chap who was custom making boots for motorcycle usage - armoured inserts and everything. He charged less to make a pair of boots than quite a few places were charging for brand new.

    I even got him to make a pair of buckled field boots based on an old picture.....
    Is he still going?
    He retired. His daughter, got rather irate with me getting him interested in new projects, at what she regarded as far too low a price.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited January 2022

    Scott_xP said:

    First up, as always, vote intention. Labour are registering a NINE point lead over the Conservatives:

    CON🔵33%
    LAB🔴42%
    LD🟠11%
    GRN🟢4%
    SNP🟡3%
    REFUK 3%
    PC 1%
    OTHER 2%

    (2/n)

    Is that all
    Depends which polling firm. The only right way to do it is trends between polls from the same pollster.

    Also field work dates, was it all done the last couple of days.
    The main thing is it's not a 10% gap from Labour to the Tories. Boris is thus extremely popular.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited January 2022
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    First up, as always, vote intention. Labour are registering a NINE point lead over the Conservatives:

    CON🔵33%
    LAB🔴42%
    LD🟠11%
    GRN🟢4%
    SNP🟡3%
    REFUK 3%
    PC 1%
    OTHER 2%

    (2/n)

    Bang goes the "Labour aren't even at 40%" line of yesterday.
    Tories now up 5% to 33% from 28% in last night's Yougov however and Labour lead cut from 10% last night to 9% already after Boris' apology. (It was taken partly this morning as well as yesterday by focaldata).

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1481595080456683521?s=20

    If we see more polls like that Boris should survive even if there is a VONC
    Surely you understand what a house effect is?

    Same poll btw

    "There is now clear daylight between Johnson and Starmer in terms of who the public think would make the best PM.

    Starmer 40% (+2)
    Johnson 30% (-4)
    Don't know 29%"

    ETA previous focaldata poll 10 December Con 33 lab 41. Some consolation for hyufd there
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    First up, as always, vote intention. Labour are registering a NINE point lead over the Conservatives:

    CON🔵33%
    LAB🔴42%
    LD🟠11%
    GRN🟢4%
    SNP🟡3%
    REFUK 3%
    PC 1%
    OTHER 2%

    (2/n)

    Only 9 points behind Labour so in the HYUFD's eyes the Tories and Boris have nothing to worry about
    I thought they would be further behind, the press coverage is as bad as it can get for a PM.

    On a more general point regarding the leaks surely any future PM will want to bring in a new law to make it a criminal offence for any such leaking. SKS must be loving it at the moment but at the back of his mind he must be thinking this could happen to me if I become PM.
    It depends on the date these polls are being collected

    And even then you need to allow a few days for things to 100% filter through to people and let them make up their mind.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842

    dixiedean said:

    Rees-Mogg's intervention is revealing. He clearly thinks that Boris's critics are just oiks getting above their station. This view - along with the conviction that Brexit is a miracle and Boris is the nation's saviour - is presumably shared by the rest of the ERG crowd, which now dominates the party. In conclusion: Boris stays.

    Yes. @HYUFD is spot as always when it comes to internal Tory politics. JRM very much is the Tories now. Not some outlier. He is the mainstream. It's no good ex Tories just hoping this faction will see the light and change. Only a defeat will do that.
    I think you are overstating personal loyalty to Johnson in the Parliamentary party. No doubt there are some Tory MPs who personally like him a lot and, for new MPs, feel personally grateful for his role in making them MPs in 2019. But he is not a sympathetic figure - they all know he's a selfish, dishonest, disloyal sh1t, and if they didn't before they damned well do now. His case is and has always been that he's a winner. If that goes, there is nothing left.

    As to JRM, his interests in the matter are very clear. His career is highly dependent on Johnson and his seat is probably not in huge danger (never say never, but he has a nicely divided opposition vote). I'll tell you now that JRM will not be in Johnson's successor's cabinet. So Johnson staying is very clearly in his personal interests and he'll go out to bat for him. He also may be in the small minority who like the man.

    But, for a backbencher in particular but also for many ministers, the issue is whether Johnson is still a winner or whether 2022 Johnson has irretrievably lost what 2019 Johnson had in terms of public appeal - it really is as simple as that.
    Yes. All that accepted. My point was rather that, putting aside the personalities of him and the PM, the opinions and attitudes expressed by JRM are mainstream Conservative ones. Both within and without Westminster now.
    Those of Douglas Ross are very much not. Most members who hold his views South of the Border have left. You can see numerous examples on here.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,351
    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    An interesting look at the NE Tories and their prospects

    https://northeastbylines.co.uk/an-eye-to-the-future-for-our-new-red-wall-mps/

    Not very good if the current charade continues. Add Hexham if the clown is in charge at the next GE.
    I do hope so. But fear not. This is blue rosette land. Why? Not sure if anyone cares. But it is.
    Blyth Valley isn't though.
    Not quite. It's slightly odd. In 1997 Hexham came within 200 votes of going Labour. Socially it is a sort of seat that ought to be Tory v LD, and very occasionally has been, but is firmly Tory v Lab. Until 2015 Tories get less than 50% of the vote. Put it down as one that could go Labour in a wipeout year.

  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Phil said:

    Phil said:

    Totally off topic I thought I would give an update on air source heat pumps. A local County Council we deal with has a plan to replace ageing boilers in schools with ASHP and last year carried out a cost analysis/feasability study into it. They found that to install an ASHP system in a school would cost between 5-10 times as much as a new gas boiler system. They also estimate that due to the vast increase in the use of electricity to power the ASHPs there would only be limited energy savings. Therefore they are going to recommend to the Councillors to install new gas boilers not ASHPs.

    ASHP's remind me of a Sinclair C5, great idea on paper and clever technology, they are just not practical.

    Our experience is not encouraging, at least for big houses.

    We live in an old farmhouse. It's a large house and insulation is poor. However, we had a specialist firm do the calculations, and a hybrid ASHP system with oil boiler backup looks technically feasible. The oil boiler would kick in when it's very cold and especially if at the same time we are heating all the rooms, but for much of the time the twin ASHPs would be adequate. Also we could run the ASHPs for longer during the middle of the day and at night, when the oil boiler is currently switched off, thus giving better background heat and compensating for the lower peak power of the ASHPs. Overall, we could probably reduce our oil consumption by 80% or more.

    So far so good, but the costs are absolutely eye-watering. Before we even start thinking about the system itself, we would need to upgrade to a 3-phase mains supply. That's not particularly hard - the 11Kv line goes through our land - but UK Power networks still quoted £20K. Add in the rewiring, the heat pumps, the header tanks, the replumbing, the listed building application etc etc, and it's looking like a total well north of £60K. Possibly a lot more. A ground-source system, which would be necessary if we were trying to rely exclusively on the heat-pump, would be very much more expensive even that that.

    OK, this is not a typical house, but even so...
    Sounds similar to our own considerations. Its a 200ish year old detached building with a Grade C listing. Windows need replacing as most of the sashes are stuck / painted or nailed shut and secondary glazing behind them.

    There are drafts which I am chasing down with filler. But fundamentally all new windows are needed, and £50k has been quoted. That buys a lot of heating oil! So having done the maths we decided to patch the drafts where we find them and keep burning oil.

    Its a new boiler as well. Looked at Heat Pump and Biomass options but the ROI wasn't there. There is no point spending £lots to save £little.
    If gas prices stay this high (and presumably start to drag oil prices up too as people shift to alternate sources of energy) then that economic gap is going to narrow significantly.

    Lots of things start making sense when your energy input cost has gone up by a factor of five!

    (As an aside, has anyone kicked the planning people into pulling their heads out of their backsides & permitting double glazing in Grade II+ listings where the original windows are single glazed? Until recently I believe they were still insisting on like-for-like replacement which is completely insane given the world we live in right now.)
    There have been some instances where, when windows are being completely replaced, repro sash windows using double glazing have been allowed, IIRC. The kind where it's a proper, full sash window, with individual glazing in each pane, using narrow spaced double glazing.
    Yes, when the sash windows in our house were renovated, every pane was double glazed using the existing wooden window frames. It’s perfectly doable & the change in external impressive is next to non-existant. But I have read of this kind of glazing change being denied by conservationists in listed buildings on the grounds that “it changes the external look of the building”. Fortunately ours is a bog standard Edwardian terrace, so no chance of any conservations insisting on ludicrous conditions.

    (Obviously, the payback on doing this didn’t make a great deal of sense in purely financial terms at the time, but the increase in comfort level - no draughts! - was worth the outlay. Our previous house was a nightmare keep warm in winter.)
    I had constituents who lived in a tumbledown cottage at the end of a farm track in the middle of nowhere (outer Moorgreen) looking out over a disused field. Literally nobody ever walks past except them. Their application to have double glazing in one window was refused because it "might change the look of the window".

    In a similar vein, a colleague who lived in a conservation area was told he couldn't replace his rotting fence with certain materials even if they were painted to look absolutely identical, because only the original material could be tolerated to preserve consistency on that road.

    It's hard to resist calls for more conservation areas (who can be against preserving our historic landscape?), but when they're applied with that level of fanaticism, I think some pushback is needed.
    Mrs Eek was telling me that somewhere local has started allowing artificial slates to be used as the cost is otherwise so high the work is not practical...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    If MPs are too hesitant to topple Boris Johnson, the money men might instead | @cathynewman https://bit.ly/3HVUwQ4
  • JohnO said:

    That Focaldata poll also reveals that 46% of 2019 Cons voters saying Johnson should resign to 43% wanting him to stay.

    Douglas Ross and John O speak for our supporters.

    Me too. 👍

    I'm a D/K if polled now but still surely a 2019 Con voter?
  • franklynfranklyn Posts: 297
    It is interesting that Bozo still thinks that the event on 20th May 2020 was 'work', as Princess Nut Nit was there in the picture together with her dog.
    What sort of 'work' involves the boss's fiancée and her pet?
  • TazTaz Posts: 10,704
    Scott_xP said:

    Jacob Rees-Mogg is asked whether he thinks the leader of the Welsh Conservatives is also “a lightweight figure” and is then challenged to name him.

    Mogg: “The Secretary of State for Wales is called Simon Hart.”

    The leader of the Welsh Conservatives is Andrew RT Davies.

    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1481595667738943498

    File this under "so what"
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Scott_xP said:

    First up, as always, vote intention. Labour are registering a NINE point lead over the Conservatives:

    CON🔵33%
    LAB🔴42%
    LD🟠11%
    GRN🟢4%
    SNP🟡3%
    REFUK 3%
    PC 1%
    OTHER 2%

    (2/n)

    Is that all
    Depends which polling firm. The only right way to do it is trends between polls from the same pollster.

    Also field work dates, was it all done the last couple of days.
    The main thing is it's not a 10% gap from Labour to the Tories. Boris is thus extremely popular.
    🙂.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    MrEd said:

    This site needs at least one contributor from the bona fide upper class, for balance. (It could also do with more w/c contributors, mind you).

    So it's a shame that Charles has departed.

    Yes this site is swarming with the kind of people who buy their own furniture. Charles lent it a touch of genuine class.
    Though I recall Charlie once recommending Samuel Windsor shoes. Once I’d picked myself up from the floor, I felt a burst of gratification that the old saw about poshos being tight as fuck was confirmed.
    I don't know anything about the world of posh shoes. I always get my shoes from Clarkes.
    I had two pairs of riding boots made - not to be posh, but I found a chap who was custom making boots for motorcycle usage - armoured inserts and everything. He charged less to make a pair of boots than quite a few places were charging for brand new.

    I even got him to make a pair of buckled field boots based on an old picture.....
    Is he still going?
    He retired. His daughter, got rather irate with me getting him interested in new projects, at what she regarded as far too low a price.
    That is a shame, I would asked him about some boots myself.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,100
    TimS said:

    Totally off topic I thought I would give an update on air source heat pumps. A local County Council we deal with has a plan to replace ageing boilers in schools with ASHP and last year carried out a cost analysis/feasability study into it. They found that to install an ASHP system in a school would cost between 5-10 times as much as a new gas boiler system. They also estimate that due to the vast increase in the use of electricity to power the ASHPs there would only be limited energy savings. Therefore they are going to recommend to the Councillors to install new gas boilers not ASHPs.

    ASHP's remind me of a Sinclair C5, great idea on paper and clever technology, they are just not practical.

    Whoever suggested an ASHP retrofit for a school was clearly a moron.

    It would probably work in a new build school though.
    I think the suggestion comes from TV reports on ASHPs when it just looks like you can swap your boiler for an ASHP, save money and save the planet. There is never any mention of all the other stuff that goes with an ASHP. Councils have to try and decarbon everything now, however the costs are eyewatering.

    We think that hydrogen is the future, probably in 5-10 years time.
    It's one of those mysteries though where nobody can explain why ASHPs are very common on the continent yet the UK seems to have all these problems with affordability and effectiveness. I have a house in a hamlet in central France and the neighbours almost all have ASHPs. It's just fitted as a matter of course every time someone does a renovation.
    Part of it is climate - in particular the UK has a lot of variety. Plus I think we have a miser culture of not wanting to invest in our own houses. It's weird when the Government just gave us all free money to about 12% of the value of our houses by inflating prices last year.

    However UK ASHP sales doubled last year.

    In France it's perhaps because they don't really use gas; it's all been nuclear since the 1980s.


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    EU negotiator falls down in front of Liz Truss

    https://twitter.com/darrenmccaffrey/status/1481605392455159812?s=20
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,633

    Phil said:

    Phil said:

    Totally off topic I thought I would give an update on air source heat pumps. A local County Council we deal with has a plan to replace ageing boilers in schools with ASHP and last year carried out a cost analysis/feasability study into it. They found that to install an ASHP system in a school would cost between 5-10 times as much as a new gas boiler system. They also estimate that due to the vast increase in the use of electricity to power the ASHPs there would only be limited energy savings. Therefore they are going to recommend to the Councillors to install new gas boilers not ASHPs.

    ASHP's remind me of a Sinclair C5, great idea on paper and clever technology, they are just not practical.

    Our experience is not encouraging, at least for big houses.

    We live in an old farmhouse. It's a large house and insulation is poor. However, we had a specialist firm do the calculations, and a hybrid ASHP system with oil boiler backup looks technically feasible. The oil boiler would kick in when it's very cold and especially if at the same time we are heating all the rooms, but for much of the time the twin ASHPs would be adequate. Also we could run the ASHPs for longer during the middle of the day and at night, when the oil boiler is currently switched off, thus giving better background heat and compensating for the lower peak power of the ASHPs. Overall, we could probably reduce our oil consumption by 80% or more.

    So far so good, but the costs are absolutely eye-watering. Before we even start thinking about the system itself, we would need to upgrade to a 3-phase mains supply. That's not particularly hard - the 11Kv line goes through our land - but UK Power networks still quoted £20K. Add in the rewiring, the heat pumps, the header tanks, the replumbing, the listed building application etc etc, and it's looking like a total well north of £60K. Possibly a lot more. A ground-source system, which would be necessary if we were trying to rely exclusively on the heat-pump, would be very much more expensive even that that.

    OK, this is not a typical house, but even so...
    Sounds similar to our own considerations. Its a 200ish year old detached building with a Grade C listing. Windows need replacing as most of the sashes are stuck / painted or nailed shut and secondary glazing behind them.

    There are drafts which I am chasing down with filler. But fundamentally all new windows are needed, and £50k has been quoted. That buys a lot of heating oil! So having done the maths we decided to patch the drafts where we find them and keep burning oil.

    Its a new boiler as well. Looked at Heat Pump and Biomass options but the ROI wasn't there. There is no point spending £lots to save £little.
    If gas prices stay this high (and presumably start to drag oil prices up too as people shift to alternate sources of energy) then that economic gap is going to narrow significantly.

    Lots of things start making sense when your energy input cost has gone up by a factor of five!

    (As an aside, has anyone kicked the planning people into pulling their heads out of their backsides & permitting double glazing in Grade II+ listings where the original windows are single glazed? Until recently I believe they were still insisting on like-for-like replacement which is completely insane given the world we live in right now.)
    There have been some instances where, when windows are being completely replaced, repro sash windows using double glazing have been allowed, IIRC. The kind where it's a proper, full sash window, with individual glazing in each pane, using narrow spaced double glazing.
    Yes, when the sash windows in our house were renovated, every pane was double glazed using the existing wooden window frames. It’s perfectly doable & the change in external impressive is next to non-existant. But I have read of this kind of glazing change being denied by conservationists in listed buildings on the grounds that “it changes the external look of the building”. Fortunately ours is a bog standard Edwardian terrace, so no chance of any conservations insisting on ludicrous conditions.

    (Obviously, the payback on doing this didn’t make a great deal of sense in purely financial terms at the time, but the increase in comfort level - no draughts! - was worth the outlay. Our previous house was a nightmare keep warm in winter.)
    I had constituents who lived in a tumbledown cottage at the end of a farm track in the middle of nowhere (outer Moorgreen) looking out over a disused field. Literally nobody ever walks past except them. Their application to have double glazing in one window was refused because it "might change the look of the window".

    In a similar vein, a colleague who lived in a conservation area was told he couldn't replace his rotting fence with certain materials even if they were painted to look absolutely identical, because only the original material could be tolerated to preserve consistency on that road.

    It's hard to resist calls for more conservation areas (who can be against preserving our historic landscape?), but when they're applied with that level of fanaticism, I think some pushback is needed.

    Phil said:

    Phil said:

    Totally off topic I thought I would give an update on air source heat pumps. A local County Council we deal with has a plan to replace ageing boilers in schools with ASHP and last year carried out a cost analysis/feasability study into it. They found that to install an ASHP system in a school would cost between 5-10 times as much as a new gas boiler system. They also estimate that due to the vast increase in the use of electricity to power the ASHPs there would only be limited energy savings. Therefore they are going to recommend to the Councillors to install new gas boilers not ASHPs.

    ASHP's remind me of a Sinclair C5, great idea on paper and clever technology, they are just not practical.

    Our experience is not encouraging, at least for big houses.

    We live in an old farmhouse. It's a large house and insulation is poor. However, we had a specialist firm do the calculations, and a hybrid ASHP system with oil boiler backup looks technically feasible. The oil boiler would kick in when it's very cold and especially if at the same time we are heating all the rooms, but for much of the time the twin ASHPs would be adequate. Also we could run the ASHPs for longer during the middle of the day and at night, when the oil boiler is currently switched off, thus giving better background heat and compensating for the lower peak power of the ASHPs. Overall, we could probably reduce our oil consumption by 80% or more.

    So far so good, but the costs are absolutely eye-watering. Before we even start thinking about the system itself, we would need to upgrade to a 3-phase mains supply. That's not particularly hard - the 11Kv line goes through our land - but UK Power networks still quoted £20K. Add in the rewiring, the heat pumps, the header tanks, the replumbing, the listed building application etc etc, and it's looking like a total well north of £60K. Possibly a lot more. A ground-source system, which would be necessary if we were trying to rely exclusively on the heat-pump, would be very much more expensive even that that.

    OK, this is not a typical house, but even so...
    Sounds similar to our own considerations. Its a 200ish year old detached building with a Grade C listing. Windows need replacing as most of the sashes are stuck / painted or nailed shut and secondary glazing behind them.

    There are drafts which I am chasing down with filler. But fundamentally all new windows are needed, and £50k has been quoted. That buys a lot of heating oil! So having done the maths we decided to patch the drafts where we find them and keep burning oil.

    Its a new boiler as well. Looked at Heat Pump and Biomass options but the ROI wasn't there. There is no point spending £lots to save £little.
    If gas prices stay this high (and presumably start to drag oil prices up too as people shift to alternate sources of energy) then that economic gap is going to narrow significantly.

    Lots of things start making sense when your energy input cost has gone up by a factor of five!

    (As an aside, has anyone kicked the planning people into pulling their heads out of their backsides & permitting double glazing in Grade II+ listings where the original windows are single glazed? Until recently I believe they were still insisting on like-for-like replacement which is completely insane given the world we live in right now.)
    There have been some instances where, when windows are being completely replaced, repro sash windows using double glazing have been allowed, IIRC. The kind where it's a proper, full sash window, with individual glazing in each pane, using narrow spaced double glazing.
    Yes, when the sash windows in our house were renovated, every pane was double glazed using the existing wooden window frames. It’s perfectly doable & the change in external impressive is next to non-existant. But I have read of this kind of glazing change being denied by conservationists in listed buildings on the grounds that “it changes the external look of the building”. Fortunately ours is a bog standard Edwardian terrace, so no chance of any conservations insisting on ludicrous conditions.

    (Obviously, the payback on doing this didn’t make a great deal of sense in purely financial terms at the time, but the increase in comfort level - no draughts! - was worth the outlay. Our previous house was a nightmare keep warm in winter.)
    I had constituents who lived in a tumbledown cottage at the end of a farm track in the middle of nowhere (outer Moorgreen) looking out over a disused field. Literally nobody ever walks past except them. Their application to have double glazing in one window was refused because it "might change the look of the window".

    In a similar vein, a colleague who lived in a conservation area was told he couldn't replace his rotting fence with certain materials even if they were painted to look absolutely identical, because only the original material could be tolerated to preserve consistency on that road.

    It's hard to resist calls for more conservation areas (who can be against preserving our historic landscape?), but when they're applied with that level of fanaticism, I think some pushback is needed.
    It's the problem with jumped up idiots with read only minds (ROM).

    I recall an incident where an inspector tried to stop construction on a domestic project, because the builder had used lights far in excess of the required specification for the bathrooms.

    For those who don't know, lights have to be rated for varying degrees of water tightness, the nearer they are to the bath/shower. The lights need to meet or *exceed* the ratings

    The builder had used watertight LED lights (IP68, I think), rated to work *under water* thoughout the bathrooms.

    The idiot inspector thought that the regulations meant only rating x in zone y.....
  • This site needs at least one contributor from the bona fide upper class, for balance. (It could also do with more w/c contributors, mind you).

    So it's a shame that Charles has departed.

    Yes this site is swarming with the kind of people who buy their own furniture. Charles lent it a touch of genuine class.
    Though I recall Charlie once recommending Samuel Windsor shoes. Once I’d picked myself up from the floor, I felt a burst of gratification that the old saw about poshos being tight as fuck was confirmed.
    I don't know anything about the world of posh shoes. I always get my shoes from Clarkes.
    I had two pairs of riding boots made - not to be posh, but I found a chap who was custom making boots for motorcycle usage - armoured inserts and everything. He charged less to make a pair of boots than quite a few places were charging for brand new.

    I even got him to make a pair of buckled field boots based on an old picture.....
    I had a pair of m/c boots made by Gasolina in Mexico, custom made to the extent that you take measurements of your feet and send them before the boots are made (one of my feet is apparently 10.5, the other 10.75, same standard width), about the same price as a pair of good quality motorcycle boots here. Mexico actually has quite a proud heritage of boot making, probably from its equestrian history I imagine.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    JohnO said:

    That Focaldata poll also reveals that 46% of 2019 Cons voters saying Johnson should resign to 43% wanting him to stay.

    Douglas Ross and John O speak for our supporters.

    On those numbers a number of 2019 Tory voters are already voting Labour, the 33% still voting Tory will mostly back Boris.

    Note too even less than 50% of 2019 Cons voters want Boris to go
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,010
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    First up, as always, vote intention. Labour are registering a NINE point lead over the Conservatives:

    CON🔵33%
    LAB🔴42%
    LD🟠11%
    GRN🟢4%
    SNP🟡3%
    REFUK 3%
    PC 1%
    OTHER 2%

    (2/n)

    Bang goes the "Labour aren't even at 40%" line of yesterday.
    Tories now up 5% to 33% from 28% in last night's Yougov however and Labour lead cut from 10% last night to 9% already after Boris' apology.
    Clearly he should apologise more often. Another ten apologies and the Tories will be back in the lead.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited January 2022
    HYUFD said:

    JohnO said:

    That Focaldata poll also reveals that 46% of 2019 Cons voters saying Johnson should resign to 43% wanting him to stay.

    Douglas Ross and John O speak for our supporters.

    On those numbers a number of 2019 Tory voters are already voting Labour, the 33% still voting Tory will mostly back Boris.

    Note too even less than 50% of 2019 Cons voters want Boris to go
    You can prevaricate as much as you want but Boris is over, it is just the timing

    And the ridiculous JRM can go with him
  • franklyn said:

    It is interesting that Bozo still thinks that the event on 20th May 2020 was 'work', as Princess Nut Nit was there in the picture together with her dog.
    What sort of 'work' involves the boss's fiancée and her pet?

    Any work in the bosses garden.

    Even if his children were there playing on a swing set the others could be working.

    The alcohol being there is an issue. The dog and lady who live there being there isn't.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,480
    edited January 2022
    HYUFD said:

    EU negotiator falls down in front of Liz Truss

    https://twitter.com/darrenmccaffrey/status/1481605392455159812?s=20

    It does look a lot like he's bowing and scraping. Queen Liz will like that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Scott_xP said:

    Jacob Rees-Mogg is asked whether he thinks the leader of the Welsh Conservatives is also “a lightweight figure” and is then challenged to name him.

    Mogg: “The Secretary of State for Wales is called Simon Hart.”

    The leader of the Welsh Conservatives is Andrew RT Davies.

    https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1481595667738943498

    For a man who is usually polite at least that is staggeringly rude to not know or even care to know who the chap is, even if, as many do, he holds Westminster as far more important than leaders in the devolved administrations.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,603
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    First up, as always, vote intention. Labour are registering a NINE point lead over the Conservatives:

    CON🔵33%
    LAB🔴42%
    LD🟠11%
    GRN🟢4%
    SNP🟡3%
    REFUK 3%
    PC 1%
    OTHER 2%

    (2/n)

    Bang goes the "Labour aren't even at 40%" line of yesterday.
    Tories now up 5% to 33% from 28% in last night's Yougov however and Labour lead cut from 10% last night to 9% already after Boris' apology. (It was taken partly this morning as well as yesterday by focaldata).

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1481595080456683521?s=20

    If we see more polls like that Boris should survive even if there is a VONC
    You are picking and choosing, mixing and matching polling data to fit your frame.

    So if you look at the Tories on 33% on today's poll and Labour on 38% yesterday that is margin for error material. Huzzah for Boris!

    You are better than this!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    HYUFD said:

    JohnO said:

    That Focaldata poll also reveals that 46% of 2019 Cons voters saying Johnson should resign to 43% wanting him to stay.

    Douglas Ross and John O speak for our supporters.

    On those numbers a number of 2019 Tory voters are already voting Labour, the 33% still voting Tory will mostly back Boris.

    Note too even less than 50% of 2019 Cons voters want Boris to go
    You can prevaricate as much as you want but Boris is over, it is just the timing
    Well that is always true of every leader. The question of timing is whether it is imminent, soon or some ways off.

    I'd say the answers to that are no, possibly, and probably.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044

    franklyn said:

    It is interesting that Bozo still thinks that the event on 20th May 2020 was 'work', as Princess Nut Nit was there in the picture together with her dog.
    What sort of 'work' involves the boss's fiancée and her pet?

    Any work in the bosses garden.

    Even if his children were there playing on a swing set the others could be working.

    The alcohol being there is an issue. The dog and lady who live there being there isn't.
    The email is the issue. It is crystal clear from that it was conceived and thought of a social event with bring your own.

    As Iain Martin is repeatedly pointing out this crap about a 'work event' is just that: crap. There was no such entity or arrangement under 2020 rules in May.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,633

    This site needs at least one contributor from the bona fide upper class, for balance. (It could also do with more w/c contributors, mind you).

    So it's a shame that Charles has departed.

    Yes this site is swarming with the kind of people who buy their own furniture. Charles lent it a touch of genuine class.
    Though I recall Charlie once recommending Samuel Windsor shoes. Once I’d picked myself up from the floor, I felt a burst of gratification that the old saw about poshos being tight as fuck was confirmed.
    I don't know anything about the world of posh shoes. I always get my shoes from Clarkes.
    I had two pairs of riding boots made - not to be posh, but I found a chap who was custom making boots for motorcycle usage - armoured inserts and everything. He charged less to make a pair of boots than quite a few places were charging for brand new.

    I even got him to make a pair of buckled field boots based on an old picture.....
    I had a pair of m/c boots made by Gasolina in Mexico, custom made to the extent that you take measurements of your feet and send them before the boots are made (one of my feet is apparently 10.5, the other 10.75, same standard width), about the same price as a pair of good quality motorcycle boots here. Mexico actually has quite a proud heritage of boot making, probably from its equestrian history I imagine.
    Interesting - yes, I imagine they do. And equestrian stuff in very popular in Latin America among the rich (new or otherwise).
  • Scott_xP said:

    If MPs are too hesitant to topple Boris Johnson, the money men might instead | @cathynewman https://bit.ly/3HVUwQ4

    Is there a law against some Tory squillionaire or other offering Boris a £10 million bung to vacate the premises by Easter?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,739
    More than two thirds of those polled by @focaldataHQ say Johnson's "apology" was not sincere https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1481608309362860034/photo/1
  • HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    First up, as always, vote intention. Labour are registering a NINE point lead over the Conservatives:

    CON🔵33%
    LAB🔴42%
    LD🟠11%
    GRN🟢4%
    SNP🟡3%
    REFUK 3%
    PC 1%
    OTHER 2%

    (2/n)

    Bang goes the "Labour aren't even at 40%" line of yesterday.
    Tories now up 5% to 33% from 28% in last night's Yougov however and Labour lead cut from 10% last night to 9% already after Boris' apology. (It was taken partly this morning as well as yesterday by focaldata).

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1481595080456683521?s=20

    If we see more polls like that Boris should survive even if there is a VONC
    You are picking and choosing, mixing and matching polling data to fit your frame.

    So if you look at the Tories on 33% on today's poll and Labour on 38% yesterday that is margin for error material. Huzzah for Boris!

    You are better than this!
    I am not sure he is on the evidence of the last few days
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Rees-Mogg's intervention is revealing. He clearly thinks that Boris's critics are just oiks getting above their station. This view - along with the conviction that Brexit is a miracle and Boris is the nation's saviour - is presumably shared by the rest of the ERG crowd, which now dominates the party. In conclusion: Boris stays.

    Yes. @HYUFD is spot as always when it comes to internal Tory politics. JRM very much is the Tories now. Not some outlier. He is the mainstream. It's no good ex Tories just hoping this faction will see the light and change. Only a defeat will do that.
    I think you are overstating personal loyalty to Johnson in the Parliamentary party. No doubt there are some Tory MPs who personally like him a lot and, for new MPs, feel personally grateful for his role in making them MPs in 2019. But he is not a sympathetic figure - they all know he's a selfish, dishonest, disloyal sh1t, and if they didn't before they damned well do now. His case is and has always been that he's a winner. If that goes, there is nothing left.

    As to JRM, his interests in the matter are very clear. His career is highly dependent on Johnson and his seat is probably not in huge danger (never say never, but he has a nicely divided opposition vote). I'll tell you now that JRM will not be in Johnson's successor's cabinet. So Johnson staying is very clearly in his personal interests and he'll go out to bat for him. He also may be in the small minority who like the man.

    But, for a backbencher in particular but also for many ministers, the issue is whether Johnson is still a winner or whether 2022 Johnson has irretrievably lost what 2019 Johnson had in terms of public appeal - it really is as simple as that.
    Yes. All that accepted. My point was rather that, putting aside the personalities of him and the PM, the opinions and attitudes expressed by JRM are mainstream Conservative ones. Both within and without Westminster now.
    Those of Douglas Ross are very much not. Most members who hold his views South of the Border have left. You can see numerous examples on here.
    I still have enough friends and contacts within the Conservative Party to say that is not entirely true. There are still plenty of good people in the Party in the Douglas Ross mould, just that at the moment their voices are largely drowned by pillocks like Rees Mogg. I chose to resign my membership when Johnson was made leader. Without wishing to sound like Charles, I know a number of people that know him. In reality he is worse than many people realise. He is totally unfit for office.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,048
    TimS said:

    I would suggest the world is seeing the results of too much haste to move to green and insufficient planning for transitional energy which is highlighted by the controversy over Cambo oil field in Scotland

    This is precisely the wrong conclusion.

    Consider the alternative scenarios. Suppose we had moved to renewables more slowly and were burning more coal and gas now. Would that be better? Coal prices are also up now, we would be having even higher prices for gas and electricity.

    However, if we'd moved to renewables more quickly, we'd need to be burning less gas and so our electricity prices would be lower.
    The point the analyst was making is that the transition did not take into account a sensible period to complete it and as a result, for the reasons he stated, gas is the transition energy and the demand for the foreseeable future is going to cause serious costs of loving crisis for government's worldwide

    It may be of interest but I am looking out on 'Gwynt y Mor' wind farm and there is not a breath of wind and the turbines are barely turning
    It's the same old rubbish of wanting to delay action, and if you go straight to renewables you don't need gas as a transition fuel.

    We all know the wind doesn't always blow, which is why we need a diverse range of energy sources (including tidal, Moroccan solar, Norwegian hydroelectric, Icelandic geothermal, perhaps some nuclear and an excess of wind that can be stored).
    The reality is that storage is going to end up much, much higher than anyone can imagine.

    By 2050 I expect we'll have many TW of storage plugged into the network.
    Interesting point (excuse pun). If policy makers have any sense (a big ask) they will push for localised storage or even household such as Tesla Powerwall (oh dear I will be accused of being a Tesla bore again)
    Consumers and the free market should find a way to get there in the end anyway.

    Especially for anyone charging their vehicle at home, the car already has a major battery for storage even without adding any extras like Powerwalls. But then Powerwalls etc too if they become cheap enough should become a wise investment for people to power their home with cheap energy.

    If you can charge your car/Powerwall etc with cheap to almost free energy with plunge pricing, then run your home, heating and vehicle with that, then why not do so? And then who cares when the wind is blowing, only that it is enough.
    The other odd thing about the "wind doesn't always blow" argument is that in most traditional sources of energy we build significant surplus capacity. The CCGT turbines don't always turn either, in fact most of the time most of our gas capacity lies idle, and is fired up during peak times.

    The intermittency issue with wind and solar is because we still have much less capacity than we need. Total wind power is around 17gw on a very windy day, with total electricity demand around 30-35gw most of the time. If we build wind capacity up to closer to 100gw - no reason why not, once marginal cost goes low enough - then even without storage we could be generating at least 10-15gw on a very calm day, enough to power 100% of needs on an average day, and way more than enough, with some turbines idle, on windy days.
    There should be a setting on electrical car chargers to switch from 'charge on demand' to 'grid-friendly charging', which you'd do overnight (or over a day when you weren't using your car) and would take power according to when the power on the grid was high. It would be cheaper as an incentive.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    First up, as always, vote intention. Labour are registering a NINE point lead over the Conservatives:

    CON🔵33%
    LAB🔴42%
    LD🟠11%
    GRN🟢4%
    SNP🟡3%
    REFUK 3%
    PC 1%
    OTHER 2%

    (2/n)

    Bang goes the "Labour aren't even at 40%" line of yesterday.
    Tories now up 5% to 33% from 28% in last night's Yougov however and Labour lead cut from 10% last night to 9% already after Boris' apology.
    Clearly he should apologise more often. Another ten apologies and the Tories will be back in the lead.
    When was there an apology. There was some waffle and a load of buts and excuses and gaslighting bollocks about work events. I must have missed the actual apology.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098

    DougSeal said:

    What on earth is Chatham House? Is this like a swingers thing?

    It's a foreign policy think-tank with close links to the UK foreign policy establishment. The Chatham House rule is that you can report what was discussed at its meetings but not attribute anything to an individual participant. This rule has been adopted more broadly in reporting private discussions but is frequently a source of confusion, including over whether it is a singular or plural.
    How can you operate the Chatham House rule on an internet comments board that nearly anyone in the world can read instantaneously at any time?
    You can't. Its invocation here is a classic example of the confusion over its actual meaning!
    Making a fuss over people working stuff out from information you yourself have posted here is pretty dumb, however. We regulars are all good people. I am sure - but as you say, the forum is open to anyone in the world…all sorts of people with all sorts of motives…to read; if you don’t want people to know stuff, don’t volunteer it!
  • CookieCookie Posts: 11,184
    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    First up, as always, vote intention. Labour are registering a NINE point lead over the Conservatives:

    CON🔵33%
    LAB🔴42%
    LD🟠11%
    GRN🟢4%
    SNP🟡3%
    REFUK 3%
    PC 1%
    OTHER 2%

    (2/n)

    Bang goes the "Labour aren't even at 40%" line of yesterday.
    Tories now up 5% to 33% from 28% in last night's Yougov however and Labour lead cut from 10% last night to 9% already after Boris' apology.
    Clearly he should apologise more often. Another ten apologies and the Tories will be back in the lead.
    If there's one thing Boris can demonstrate a track record on, it is apologising.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,287

    Sajid Javid reduces isolation to 5 days

    Nice to have some good news.
  • franklyn said:

    It is interesting that Bozo still thinks that the event on 20th May 2020 was 'work', as Princess Nut Nit was there in the picture together with her dog.
    What sort of 'work' involves the boss's fiancée and her pet?

    Any work in the bosses garden.

    Even if his children were there playing on a swing set the others could be working.

    The alcohol being there is an issue. The dog and lady who live there being there isn't.
    The email is the issue. It is crystal clear from that it was conceived and thought of a social event with bring your own.

    As Iain Martin is repeatedly pointing out this crap about a 'work event' is just that: crap. There was no such entity or arrangement under 2020 rules in May.
    Agreed and that's why it's so serious I've said Boris must go.

    But people trying to drag in their dog or his wife etc is just puerile bullshit that makes the speaker look petty and partisan.

    The issue is serious enough on its own merits not to drag in the idea a dog might be getting walked in the garden of where it lives, oh the horror.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Scott_xP said:

    More than two thirds of those polled by @focaldataHQ say Johnson's "apology" was not sincere https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1481608309362860034/photo/1

    It is actually one reason it is somewhat rational to stick to your guns and deny deny deny past the point of what seems like reason - if you leave it too long, or have to have it extracted from you, your apology won't be believed anyway. At that point it becomes a question of whether you take the effort to truly apologise, or if you equivocate with non apologies, but either way that you had to be forced into it shows there is no sincerity.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    JohnO said:

    That Focaldata poll also reveals that 46% of 2019 Cons voters saying Johnson should resign to 43% wanting him to stay.

    Douglas Ross and John O speak for our supporters.

    That's shocking almost half of Tory voters and a plurality want him gone. I know it's statistically insignificant in terms of it being more people wanting him gone than to stay but the fact that it's almost half is quite damning for Boris.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,098

    This site needs at least one contributor from the bona fide upper class, for balance. (It could also do with more w/c contributors, mind you).

    So it's a shame that Charles has departed.

    Yes this site is swarming with the kind of people who buy their own furniture. Charles lent it a touch of genuine class.
    Though I recall Charlie once recommending Samuel Windsor shoes. Once I’d picked myself up from the floor, I felt a burst of gratification that the old saw about poshos being tight as fuck was confirmed.
    I don't know anything about the world of posh shoes. I always get my shoes from Clarkes.
    Yes, I spend my time searching for shoe laces when Clarkes’s have broken well before the shoes are worn out, too. I remember the days when you could go back to the shop and they’d pull open a drawer and sell you some more.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    RobD said:

    What on earth is Chatham House? Is this like a swingers thing?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chatham_House_Rule
    Ah, so it is a swingers thing.
    https://twitter.com/NoContextFBUK/status/1481522634026323968
    I remember the days when an Austin Maxi was the only option.
    What a wonderful machine! (not)
    The Maxi had some excellent Issigonis ideas such as standard 5 speed transmission and anticipated the 'monospace' trend by at least 15 years. The cost cutting decision to reuse the Austin 1800 door panel tooling resulted in an ungainly appearance that it never overcame.

    If you look at its contemporary competition it looks a lot more like modern car than any of them.
    We had one in our family. To be fair, other than a terrible problem with rust it was a pretty good car for it's day
    Didn't it have a tendency to oversteer?
    I never drove it, as I was quite young at the time, but I would imagine so. It was like a tank. It also had the interesting ability to turn into a double bed when you drop the seats. @Dura_Ace was obviously aware of this in the comments on swingers lol.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,044
    franklyn said:

    It is interesting that Bozo still thinks that the event on 20th May 2020 was 'work', as Princess Nut Nit was there in the picture together with her dog.
    What sort of 'work' involves the boss's fiancée and her pet?

    Would you trust him at a social event with a load of booze and quite probably a few attractive interns?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842
    edited January 2022
    algarkirk said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    An interesting look at the NE Tories and their prospects

    https://northeastbylines.co.uk/an-eye-to-the-future-for-our-new-red-wall-mps/

    Not very good if the current charade continues. Add Hexham if the clown is in charge at the next GE.
    I do hope so. But fear not. This is blue rosette land. Why? Not sure if anyone cares. But it is.
    Blyth Valley isn't though.
    Not quite. It's slightly odd. In 1997 Hexham came within 200 votes of going Labour. Socially it is a sort of seat that ought to be Tory v LD, and very occasionally has been, but is firmly Tory v Lab. Until 2015 Tories get less than 50% of the vote. Put it down as one that could go Labour in a wipeout year.

    Indeed. The Labour vote is quite strong. It ought to be Tory LD but isn't.
    Reasons. No LD tradition. Although it does now provide the LD representation on the Council in the far west.
    Secondly. There are several ex-mining villages dotted about.
    Thirdly. Much migration of retired folk from across NE and commuters to Newcastle bringing Labour support in.
    Still Tory. Although in a wave will go. Is trending left unlike the rest of the NE.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,633
    Andy_JS said:

    Sajid Javid reduces isolation to 5 days

    Nice to have some good news.
    Fairly inevitable after the UKHSA admitted they were talking nonsense about the US isolation times. Bit of JCVI moment there.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,351
    edited January 2022

    Taz said:

    Totally off topic I thought I would give an update on air source heat pumps. A local County Council we deal with has a plan to replace ageing boilers in schools with ASHP and last year carried out a cost analysis/feasability study into it. They found that to install an ASHP system in a school would cost between 5-10 times as much as a new gas boiler system. They also estimate that due to the vast increase in the use of electricity to power the ASHPs there would only be limited energy savings. Therefore they are going to recommend to the Councillors to install new gas boilers not ASHPs.

    ASHP's remind me of a Sinclair C5, great idea on paper and clever technology, they are just not practical.

    Whoever suggested an ASHP retrofit for a school was clearly a moron.

    It would probably work in a new build school though.
    I think the suggestion comes from TV reports on ASHPs when it just looks like you can swap your boiler for an ASHP, save money and save the planet. There is never any mention of all the other stuff that goes with an ASHP. Councils have to try and decarbon everything now, however the costs are eyewatering.

    We think that hydrogen is the future, probably in 5-10 years time.
    80% of the Networrk is already Hydrogen enabled and new boilers being sold need to be Hydrogen compatible.

    Baxi have houses in Gateshead that are running on Hydrogen at the moment. The other boiler manufacturers are heavily going into Hydrogen too. I read a paper on Linkedin from a former technical manager at Ideal about it. Most interesting. Challenges for sure but alot of time and money going into it.
    Im sure it will happen, there will be challenges but it will be the future. ASHP simply are not.
    If one is being optimistic the future consists of

    hydrogen
    renewables electric (too cheap to meter for those who remember the 1950's!)
    nuclear
    and, critically,
    air carbon capture on a global scale (without which on the standard model we are doomed). Climeworks scaled up may be the best bet.

    or

    the science is wrong

    or

    the science is broadly right but the benefits outweigh the downside.

    (This last is the most under rated possibility, as prospective losers are always much more eloquent and certain than prospective gainers, who are silent and hesitant.)

    ASHP will not figure bigly in any scheme that works.



  • Scott_xP said:

    If MPs are too hesitant to topple Boris Johnson, the money men might instead | @cathynewman https://bit.ly/3HVUwQ4

    Is there a law against some Tory squillionaire or other offering Boris a £10 million bung to vacate the premises by Easter?
    Sunak may have enough spare change.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Just a reminder Mike gets very cross with people who use changes between different pollsters.

    You end up in ConHome for trying to say there's a 5% recovery in the Tory vote share.

    Except when it's that Lord Ashcroft bloke.
  • HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    First up, as always, vote intention. Labour are registering a NINE point lead over the Conservatives:

    CON🔵33%
    LAB🔴42%
    LD🟠11%
    GRN🟢4%
    SNP🟡3%
    REFUK 3%
    PC 1%
    OTHER 2%

    (2/n)

    Bang goes the "Labour aren't even at 40%" line of yesterday.
    Tories now up 5% to 33% from 28% in last night's Yougov however and Labour lead cut from 10% last night to 9% already after Boris' apology. (It was taken partly this morning as well as yesterday by focaldata).

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1481595080456683521?s=20

    If we see more polls like that Boris should survive even if there is a VONC
    You are picking and choosing, mixing and matching polling data to fit your frame.

    So if you look at the Tories on 33% on today's poll and Labour on 38% yesterday that is margin for error material. Huzzah for Boris!

    You are better than this!
    I am not sure he is on the evidence of the last few days
    I was wondering how badly The Clown has to poll before some people think it is time for him to go
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,865
    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    First up, as always, vote intention. Labour are registering a NINE point lead over the Conservatives:

    CON🔵33%
    LAB🔴42%
    LD🟠11%
    GRN🟢4%
    SNP🟡3%
    REFUK 3%
    PC 1%
    OTHER 2%

    (2/n)

    Bang goes the "Labour aren't even at 40%" line of yesterday.
    Tories now up 5% to 33% from 28% in last night's Yougov however and Labour lead cut from 10% last night to 9% already after Boris' apology.
    Clearly he should apologise more often. Another ten apologies and the Tories will be back in the lead.
    I think what's needed is a big umbrella one from the Conservative Party and in particular their MPs. I've sent them a draft for their approval and sign off.

    30 months ago, with malice aforethought, thinking only of our electoral skin, we chose a person to lead our party and country who wasn’t fit to run a whelk stall and we’d like to apologize to every single member of the public for this. We won’t insult you with weasel talk of ‘hindsight’, pretending his plethora of inadequacies have come as a surprise to us, neither will we be appointing Sue Gray to look into it. Redemption starts with facing the truth and showing genuine remorse. What we did was wrong and we knew it was wrong. We are truly truly sorry. It won’t happen again until the next time.

    Don't know why I should help but I felt compelled to.
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Rees-Mogg's intervention is revealing. He clearly thinks that Boris's critics are just oiks getting above their station. This view - along with the conviction that Brexit is a miracle and Boris is the nation's saviour - is presumably shared by the rest of the ERG crowd, which now dominates the party. In conclusion: Boris stays.

    Yes. @HYUFD is spot as always when it comes to internal Tory politics. JRM very much is the Tories now. Not some outlier. He is the mainstream. It's no good ex Tories just hoping this faction will see the light and change. Only a defeat will do that.
    I think you are overstating personal loyalty to Johnson in the Parliamentary party. No doubt there are some Tory MPs who personally like him a lot and, for new MPs, feel personally grateful for his role in making them MPs in 2019. But he is not a sympathetic figure - they all know he's a selfish, dishonest, disloyal sh1t, and if they didn't before they damned well do now. His case is and has always been that he's a winner. If that goes, there is nothing left.

    As to JRM, his interests in the matter are very clear. His career is highly dependent on Johnson and his seat is probably not in huge danger (never say never, but he has a nicely divided opposition vote). I'll tell you now that JRM will not be in Johnson's successor's cabinet. So Johnson staying is very clearly in his personal interests and he'll go out to bat for him. He also may be in the small minority who like the man.

    But, for a backbencher in particular but also for many ministers, the issue is whether Johnson is still a winner or whether 2022 Johnson has irretrievably lost what 2019 Johnson had in terms of public appeal - it really is as simple as that.
    Yes. All that accepted. My point was rather that, putting aside the personalities of him and the PM, the opinions and attitudes expressed by JRM are mainstream Conservative ones. Both within and without Westminster now.
    Those of Douglas Ross are very much not. Most members who hold his views South of the Border have left. You can see numerous examples on here.
    I'm not saying Douglas Ross is more representative of a typical Tory MP than JRM, although I'd say both are unusual.

    JRM has a very clear personal interest in that his cabinet job is pretty much dependent on Johnson being PM - that applies to only a handful of people. He has a pretty secure seat, which is true of more MPs but not generally of the MPs first elected in 2019 (they might have an element of personal gratefulness to Johnson BUT have small majorities). He is also an upper class, extremely snobbish Brexiteer - that's hardly unique, but a bit against the grain as Brexiteers tend on average to skew towards the chippy, lower middle class Tory MPs.

    Overall, the Tory Parliamentary Party isn't made up of dozens of Douglas Rosses, but nor is it made up of dozens of JRMs.
  • Why this isn't 2013 all over again. Dave always led Ed Miliband on best PM ratings throughout that Parliament.

    There is now clear daylight between Johnson and Starmer in terms of who the public think would make the best PM.

    Starmer 40% (+2)
    Johnson 30% (-4)
    Don't know 29%

    https://twitter.com/focaldataHQ/status/1481594026591727616
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,603

    HYUFD said:

    JohnO said:

    That Focaldata poll also reveals that 46% of 2019 Cons voters saying Johnson should resign to 43% wanting him to stay.

    Douglas Ross and John O speak for our supporters.

    On those numbers a number of 2019 Tory voters are already voting Labour, the 33% still voting Tory will mostly back Boris.

    Note too even less than 50% of 2019 Cons voters want Boris to go
    You can prevaricate as much as you want but Boris is over, it is just the timing

    And the ridiculous JRM can go with him
    I am more confident that Johnson will ride out the storm than I was yesterday.

    To an extent that suits me as he continues to trash the Tory brand beyond redemption.

    Although, do I really want an embarrassment as my Prime Minister? No I do not.

    What worries me most however is like a cornered dog, he is likely to try something incredibly dangerous to survive.

    He really needs to go, and we take our chances with whichever grown-up replaces him.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Sajid Javid reduces isolation to 5 days

    Nice to have some good news.
    Fairly inevitable after the UKHSA admitted they were talking nonsense about the US isolation times. Bit of JCVI moment there.
    For the past fortnight, people on PB have been advocating or predicting dropping the isolation period to five days, following the US CDC's move on 27th December. Good news, all the same.
  • Cookie said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    First up, as always, vote intention. Labour are registering a NINE point lead over the Conservatives:

    CON🔵33%
    LAB🔴42%
    LD🟠11%
    GRN🟢4%
    SNP🟡3%
    REFUK 3%
    PC 1%
    OTHER 2%

    (2/n)

    Bang goes the "Labour aren't even at 40%" line of yesterday.
    Tories now up 5% to 33% from 28% in last night's Yougov however and Labour lead cut from 10% last night to 9% already after Boris' apology.
    Clearly he should apologise more often. Another ten apologies and the Tories will be back in the lead.
    If there's one thing Boris can demonstrate a track record on, it is apologising.
    I thought it was not apologising?

    ‘I am sorry if anyone was offended by xyz’
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    dixiedean said:

    algarkirk said:

    dixiedean said:

    Pulpstar said:

    An interesting look at the NE Tories and their prospects

    https://northeastbylines.co.uk/an-eye-to-the-future-for-our-new-red-wall-mps/

    Not very good if the current charade continues. Add Hexham if the clown is in charge at the next GE.
    I do hope so. But fear not. This is blue rosette land. Why? Not sure if anyone cares. But it is.
    Blyth Valley isn't though.
    Not quite. It's slightly odd. In 1997 Hexham came within 200 votes of going Labour. Socially it is a sort of seat that ought to be Tory v LD, and very occasionally has been, but is firmly Tory v Lab. Until 2015 Tories get less than 50% of the vote. Put it down as one that could go Labour in a wipeout year.

    Indeed. The Labour vote is quite strong. It ought to be Tory LD but isn't.
    Reasons. No LD tradition. Although it does now provide the LD representation on the Council in the far west.
    Secondly. There are several ex-mining villages dotted about.
    Thirdly. Much migration of retired folk from across NE and commuters to Newcastle bringing Labour support in.
    Still Tory. Although in a wave will go. Is trending left unlike the rest of the NE.
    Hexham very metropolitan liberal elite with vegan shops etc
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,346
    edited January 2022
    One thing that may help BJ is that Omicron seems to be disappearing fast, Spring is coming, people may feel more positive than they have for 2 years and he may benefit from that.

    As a total anecdote on Christmas Day i reckon I knew 40 people who had Omicron, 15 of our employees did, now I don't know anyone who has it.

    Another total anecdote on how people can make the daftest of errors. We are working on a job where there is asbestos in the ceiling, hence it can only be drilled by a Licensed company or someone with suitable training. The asbestos in the ceiling is detailed in the asbestos report and there is even a sticker on the ceiling saying asbestos present. One of our lads drilled it yesterday and got covered in dust.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    This site needs at least one contributor from the bona fide upper class, for balance. (It could also do with more w/c contributors, mind you).

    So it's a shame that Charles has departed.

    Yes this site is swarming with the kind of people who buy their own furniture. Charles lent it a touch of genuine class.
    Though I recall Charlie once recommending Samuel Windsor shoes. Once I’d picked myself up from the floor, I felt a burst of gratification that the old saw about poshos being tight as fuck was confirmed.
    I don't know anything about the world of posh shoes. I always get my shoes from Clarkes.
    I had two pairs of riding boots made - not to be posh, but I found a chap who was custom making boots for motorcycle usage - armoured inserts and everything. He charged less to make a pair of boots than quite a few places were charging for brand new.

    I even got him to make a pair of buckled field boots based on an old picture.....
    I had a pair of m/c boots made by Gasolina in Mexico, custom made to the extent that you take measurements of your feet and send them before the boots are made (one of my feet is apparently 10.5, the other 10.75, same standard width), about the same price as a pair of good quality motorcycle boots here. Mexico actually has quite a proud heritage of boot making, probably from its equestrian history I imagine.
    Interesting - yes, I imagine they do. And equestrian stuff in very popular in Latin America among the rich (new or otherwise).
    I have a passion for Tony Lama cowboy boots for which ebay is a rich source, people buy them in the states for megabucks and then realise they never wear them. Not much use for non-western riding, sadly, you really need chaps to go with them.
  • HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    First up, as always, vote intention. Labour are registering a NINE point lead over the Conservatives:

    CON🔵33%
    LAB🔴42%
    LD🟠11%
    GRN🟢4%
    SNP🟡3%
    REFUK 3%
    PC 1%
    OTHER 2%

    (2/n)

    Bang goes the "Labour aren't even at 40%" line of yesterday.
    Tories now up 5% to 33% from 28% in last night's Yougov however and Labour lead cut from 10% last night to 9% already after Boris' apology. (It was taken partly this morning as well as yesterday by focaldata).

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1481595080456683521?s=20

    If we see more polls like that Boris should survive even if there is a VONC
    You are picking and choosing, mixing and matching polling data to fit your frame.

    So if you look at the Tories on 33% on today's poll and Labour on 38% yesterday that is margin for error material. Huzzah for Boris!

    You are better than this!
    I am not sure he is on the evidence of the last few days
    I was wondering how badly The Clown has to poll before some people think it is time for him to go
    Maybe blind loyalty overrides common sense
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,010

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    First up, as always, vote intention. Labour are registering a NINE point lead over the Conservatives:

    CON🔵33%
    LAB🔴42%
    LD🟠11%
    GRN🟢4%
    SNP🟡3%
    REFUK 3%
    PC 1%
    OTHER 2%

    (2/n)

    Bang goes the "Labour aren't even at 40%" line of yesterday.
    Tories now up 5% to 33% from 28% in last night's Yougov however and Labour lead cut from 10% last night to 9% already after Boris' apology.
    Clearly he should apologise more often. Another ten apologies and the Tories will be back in the lead.
    When was there an apology. There was some waffle and a load of buts and excuses and gaslighting bollocks about work events. I must have missed the actual apology.
    You must have a heart of stone if there weren't tears in your eyes.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    Scott_xP said:

    More than two thirds of those polled by @focaldataHQ say Johnson's "apology" was not sincere https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1481608309362860034/photo/1

    Point of order! Some of the polls field work conducted before he spoke?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    @NerysHughes not sure omicron disappearing is good for Boris as it means the normal politics of tax rises and below inflation pay increases takes centre stage.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,048
    Scott_xP said:

    The PM has just announced a new council - which he will chair - that will bring together devolved leaders across the UK

    It’s designed to improve working between the nations

    (Not sure what structure he might propose for better cross-border relations within Tory party)

    https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1481583296983228416

    Been reading my PB posts clearly. :lol:
  • kinabalu said:

    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Scott_xP said:

    First up, as always, vote intention. Labour are registering a NINE point lead over the Conservatives:

    CON🔵33%
    LAB🔴42%
    LD🟠11%
    GRN🟢4%
    SNP🟡3%
    REFUK 3%
    PC 1%
    OTHER 2%

    (2/n)

    Bang goes the "Labour aren't even at 40%" line of yesterday.
    Tories now up 5% to 33% from 28% in last night's Yougov however and Labour lead cut from 10% last night to 9% already after Boris' apology.
    Clearly he should apologise more often. Another ten apologies and the Tories will be back in the lead.
    I think what's needed is a big umbrella one from the Conservative Party and in particular their MPs. I've sent them a draft for their approval and sign off.

    30 months ago, with malice aforethought, thinking only of our electoral skin, we chose a person to lead our party and country who wasn’t fit to run a whelk stall and we’d like to apologize to every single member of the public for this. We won’t insult you with weasel talk of ‘hindsight’, pretending his plethora of inadequacies have come as a surprise to us, neither will we be appointing Sue Gray to look into it. Redemption starts with facing the truth and showing genuine remorse. What we did was wrong and we knew it was wrong. We are truly truly sorry. It won’t happen again until the next time.

    Don't know why I should help but I felt compelled to.
    Of course we could write a similar mea culpa from the Labour party for giving us Corbyn as LOTO. One of the main reasons we have Johnson as PM (and Brexit) is because the Labour Party in it's infinite wisdom thought that a very thick, shabby little man who is possibly anti-Semitic had done nothing with his life except be a backbench MP and drone on about Palestine was suitable as a candidate for PM of this country
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,162

    More from Graun feed: Libby Brooks in re Ms Sturgeon at FMQ:

    'Despite her obvious political differences with Ross, she said, “even I’m not as derogatory about him as his own Tory colleagues are being”.

    Quoting back to Ross Jacob Rees-Mogg’s comment about him being a “lightweight”, she went on:

    "These might be personal insults directly to the leader of the Scottish Conservatives. But actually this says something much deeper about the Westminster establishment’s utter contempt for Scotland. If they can’t even show basic respect for their own colleagues, what chance do the rest of us have?

    Westminster thinks Scotland doesn’t need to be listened to, can be ignored and now we’ve been told we have to thole [a Scots word meaning put up with] a prime minister that his own colleagues think is not fit for office."

    Sturgeon concluded that independence would give Scotland the “added benefit no longer [having] to put up with being treated like something on the sole of Westminster’s shoe and I suspect even Douglas Ross finds that a really attractive proposition”.

    An hour before the Holyrood session came an upbeat press release from the UK government, announcing a “landmark agreement” (pdf) setting out how the UK and devolved governments will work together “based upon on the existing values of mutual respect, maintaining trust and positive working”.

    This post-Brexit upgrade of the joint ministerial committee set up by Tony Blair’s Labour government in 1999 has been spear-headed by Michael Gove, who said today it would build on “the incredible amount of collaboration already taking place between the UK Government and the devolved administrations”.'

  • One thing that may help BJ is that Omicron seems to be disappearing fast, Spring is coming, people may feel more positive than they have for 2 years and he may benefit from that.

    As a total anecdote on Christmas Day i reckon I knew 40 people who had Omicron, 15 of our employees did, now I don't know anyone who has it.

    Another total anecdote on how people can make the daftest of errors. We are working on a job where there is asbestos in the ceiling, hence it can only be drilled by a Licensed company or someone with suitable training. The asbestos in the ceiling is detailed in the asbestos report and there is even a sticker on the ceiling saying asbestos present. One of our lads drilled it yesterday and got covered in dust.

    Yes, Boris Johnson will love all the focus being on the tax rises and the cost of living crisis.
This discussion has been closed.