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Now a 58% betting chance that the PM won’t survive 2022 – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419

    Ladbrokes have trimmed their price on Boris out this year from 8/15 about two hours ago to 4/9 now

    Very poor value. He can still be backed on the Betfair exchange at 1.66 to go during 2022.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,579
    He’s dug in. Future in hands of Sue Gray. He’s bought time but position perilous. He’s still with us

    https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1481245454113423360?s=20

    Having read down the years multiple predictions of imminent PM departures ("rode a horse" being a favourite) I suspect for good or ill (the latter) Johnson is with us a while yet.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,921

    stjohn said:

    Bill Clinton: "It depends on what the meaning of the word "is" is."

    Boris Johnson: "It depends on what the meaning of the word "party" is."

    To be fair, it doesn't really sound like much of a party to me - unless there was lots of music and snogging going on? I know this was a Conservative do and Boris was there, so the latter was probably going on, but the former?

    So what defines a party? Thinking about it (probably not enough):
    Music.
    Different clothes from your usual attire.
    Drink and food/nibbles.

    There's probably a whole range of possibilities, from 'work do' through 'get-together', to 'party' and 'SeanT-style debauched hedonistic jamboree."
    It should make zero difference whether it was a party or not. Gathering exemptions, making them lawful, were not for things that were not parties, but for essential work meetings. Do you think this was in any sense an essential work meeting?
    No.

    It was wrong. I'm just saying I don't really think it was a 'party'.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,827

    eek said:

    Is HYUFD watching a different PMQs, one from a parallel / mirror universe?

    Must be.

    Starmer deserves an A+ today

    HYUFD a U
    Please explain
    For once SKS failed to miss an open goal.

    At last he called for Boris to resign.

    For once he performed well.

    One swallow a summer does not make.

    I still believe overall he is a factional useless nonentity with no discernable personality or policies and there is no chance I will vote Labour whilst he is in charge.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,141
    edited January 2022

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    Why is @Isam still banned? Would have liked to hear his views on all this.

    Me too. Everything he's said has turned out to be utter drivel. Be nice to get an apology. Come back isam!
    Sorry for cheerleading Boris, there were things I did not get right, I believed implicitly a lying man was being honest. With hindsight I should have found some other way to support Brexit, and even if technically his superior personality is the dominant factor in British politics, I can see that dozens of other posters might see it differently.
    :smile: - I'd accept that.

    Hopefully he will be back. A distinctive poster with some interesting takes.

    Plus I have an open bet with him that I quite like. £300/£100 Starmer is PM after the next GE.
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    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,248
    edited January 2022
    kinabalu said:

    The betting - a slight drift in the odds of Johnson going. So on that metric PMQs was a marginal win for him.

    Is that a marginal win, or just saying that Johnson's comments indicate he is determined to try to brazen it out rather than going either quickly or later in the year?

    In my view, it says more about clarifying his state of mind than about his performance (which was objectively sh1t).
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited January 2022



    The margin for BREXIT was so narrow that I think it required *all* of the players on the BREXIT side, *and* all the failures on the remain side, for it to happen.

    Oh, I agree that it was necessary to have Boris lying and boosterising to get the referendum result, but it wasn't necessary to make him party leader and PM once the decision had been made and Article 50 triggered. One can excuse Brexit zealots who seriously thought Brexit was a good idea for the former, but there is no excuse for the latter, none whatsoever.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,957
    edited January 2022

    HYUFD said:

    ping said:

    Boris is doing serious damage to the Tory party.

    Cummings is trying to do serious damage to the Tory Party and if he wants a Tory civil war he will get one
    You and your tank v the conservative mps whose jobs are facing extinction
    They aren't, the last polls had Labour just 3-5% ahead before this attempted Cummings coup.

    Even after most Tory voters want Boris to stay according to the polls last night. In any case the next general election is over 2 years away
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    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Johnson's problem is the stuff about saying he didn't realise it was a party. It's the thing that will be latched onto - it's so ridiculous, and that sort of thing cuts through.

    The way his opponents are going on, it’s as if they invited a load of outsiders, caterers and a DJ, and kept going until three in the morning.
    Johnson is still lying though. This is the problem.
    What did he say that was untrue?
    Seriously?
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,947

    kinabalu said:

    The betting - a slight drift in the odds of Johnson going. So on that metric PMQs was a marginal win for him.

    Is that a marginal win, or just saying that Johnson's comments indicate he is determined to try to brazen it out rather than going either quickly or later in the year?

    In my view, it says more about clarifying his state of mind than about his performance (which was objectively sh1t).
    Yep.
    I think that's the one takeaway.
    Boris wants to stay. And there was no criticism at all from any on his own side whatsoever.
    So he stays for now.
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    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Johnson's problem is the stuff about saying he didn't realise it was a party. It's the thing that will be latched onto - it's so ridiculous, and that sort of thing cuts through.

    The way his opponents are going on, it’s as if they invited a load of outsiders, caterers and a DJ, and kept going until three in the morning.
    Johnson is still lying though. This is the problem.
    What did he say that was untrue?
    Seriously?
    I think it was the times when his lips moved.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,579
    One of the most endearing traits of the U.K. is the extent to which Britons loath hypocrisy.

    Most of Boris' scandals didn't stick to him because he wasn't hypocritical about them.

    But now that he has committed the cardinal sin of British politics, he's in serious trouble.


    https://twitter.com/Yascha_Mounk/status/1481244604905459715?s=20
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,855

    None of the ladies on Sky news buying Johnsons BS.

    Burley and Rigby, Sky News’s party experts.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ping said:

    Boris is doing serious damage to the Tory party.

    Cummings is trying to do serious damage to the Tory Party and if he wants a Tory civil war he will get one
    You and your tank v the conservative mps whose jobs are facing extinction
    They aren't, the last polls had Labour just 3-5% ahead before this attempted Cummings coup.

    Even after most Tory voters want Boris to stay according to the polls last night. In any case the next general election is over 2 years away
    You keep saying "attempted Cummings coup" as if you've come up with a clever new line.

    But did Cummings force Johnson to hold those parties? Did he force him to lie repeatedly as it emerged?

    No doubt Cummings is loving all this, but your desperate desire to see Johnson as the poor victim, so you can kiss it better, is ludicrous. He has brought ALL of this on himself.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Sandpit said:

    None of the ladies on Sky news buying Johnsons BS.

    Burley and Rigby, Sky News’s party experts.
    I was referring to the 3 other ladies which they had on.
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    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,969

    Ludicrous though the Boris non-apology is, and politically absurd as it is, and although it will satisfy no-one except perhaps HYUFD, the truth of the matter is that there is only one thing he could have said that would have been appropriate: "Mr Speaker, I take full responsibility for the matter and therefore I have humbly asked Her Majesty the Queen for an audience this afternoon, at which I will request to be relieved of the office of Prime Minister".

    Yes, go full Mayor of Casterbridge. But he’s no Henchard.
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    eekeek Posts: 24,932
    edited January 2022
    Asking again as I know I asked this last month.

    Given that this is now a work event - what was Carrie doing in there given that she doesn't work at No 10?
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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,115

    Johnson's problem is the stuff about saying he didn't realise it was a party. It's the thing that will be latched onto - it's so ridiculous, and that sort of thing cuts through.

    Is it as simple and bad as, "there's no money left"?

    It could become a bit of a running gag, to be applied to every future mistake or statement. I don't think it's as damaging as there's no money left was for Labour. The killer line may be yet to come.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,957

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ping said:

    Boris is doing serious damage to the Tory party.

    Cummings is trying to do serious damage to the Tory Party and if he wants a Tory civil war he will get one
    You and your tank v the conservative mps whose jobs are facing extinction
    They aren't, the last polls had Labour just 3-5% ahead before this attempted Cummings coup.

    Even after most Tory voters want Boris to stay according to the polls last night. In any case the next general election is over 2 years away
    You keep saying "attempted Cummings coup" as if you've come up with a clever new line.

    But did Cummings force Johnson to hold those parties? Did he force him to lie repeatedly as it emerged?

    No doubt Cummings is loving all this, but your desperate desire to see Johnson as the poor victim, so you can kiss it better, is ludicrous. He has brought ALL of this on himself.
    There was no party, merely some after work thankyou drinks Boris briefly attended in a month beaches like Durdle Door were packed.

    This is a Cummings attempted coup, no more no less
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,077
    Sandpit said:

    None of the ladies on Sky news buying Johnsons BS.

    Burley and Rigby, Sky News’s party experts.
    You keep saying this, but it is not relevant. Burley and Rigby didn’t create Covid specific criminal offences for one.
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    LOL!

    @iainjwatson

    Treasury sources say that 'time constraints' are preventing @RishiSunak from doing media interviews today
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    eek said:

    Asking again as I know I asked this last month.

    Given that this is now a work event - what was Carrie doing in there given that she doesn't work at No 10?

    It is impossible for a garden to be shared by a home and a place of work.
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    imagine if he does hang on what two more years of this do to the Tory vote
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    Well Boris satisfied @HYUFD, @DavidL, @Sandpit and Chris Chope so all's well.
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    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ping said:

    Boris is doing serious damage to the Tory party.

    Cummings is trying to do serious damage to the Tory Party and if he wants a Tory civil war he will get one
    You and your tank v the conservative mps whose jobs are facing extinction
    They aren't, the last polls had Labour just 3-5% ahead before this attempted Cummings coup.

    Even after most Tory voters want Boris to stay according to the polls last night. In any case the next general election is over 2 years away
    You keep saying "attempted Cummings coup" as if you've come up with a clever new line.

    But did Cummings force Johnson to hold those parties? Did he force him to lie repeatedly as it emerged?

    No doubt Cummings is loving all this, but your desperate desire to see Johnson as the poor victim, so you can kiss it better, is ludicrous. He has brought ALL of this on himself.
    There was no party, merely some after work thankyou drinks Boris briefly attended in a month beaches like Durdle Door were packed.

    This is a Cummings attempted coup, no more no less
    Leaving aside that "after work thank you drinks" were not allowed at the time, and that the minority of the public going to crowded beaches were roundly condemned, including by Government ministers, I ask again... did Cummings force Johnson to lie and cover up as he absolutely undoubtedly has?
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,251

    LOL!

    @iainjwatson

    Treasury sources say that 'time constraints' are preventing @RishiSunak from doing media interviews today

    In one thing HYUFD is correct - Rishi won't want to weld the sword, because of potential backlash. While a stalking horse candidate is not how it works, whoever actually delivers the blow will not be someone who expects to get the crown...
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,970
    Be kind, Conservative MPs. Put the fool out of the misery.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,158

    GIN1138 said:

    Wonder if Therea's tempted to stand up and tell him to resign?

    She's biding her time.

    I think she's waiting for the debate on Sue Grey's report.
    She should stand up and say "I'm enjoying this!" Then sit down.
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    eekeek Posts: 24,932

    LOL!

    @iainjwatson

    Treasury sources say that 'time constraints' are preventing @RishiSunak from doing media interviews today


    Suddenly any and all meetings booked for the next few weeks are being brought forward as quickly as possible.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,957
    edited January 2022

    imagine if he does hang on what two more years of this do to the Tory vote

    The Tory vote is still clearly above where it was from 1993-2005 and early 2019 even after earlier garden party stories
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,855

    Sandpit said:

    None of the ladies on Sky news buying Johnsons BS.

    Burley and Rigby, Sky News’s party experts.
    You keep saying this, but it is not relevant. Burley and Rigby didn’t create Covid specific criminal offences for one.
    Of course it’s relevant, in a discussion about whether rules should be obeyed.

    The difference being that the Sky News team went to an actual party, in a restaurant a hundred miles away from where they work.

    I still don’t see that opening the garden of the office for what looks like half an hour at the end of the day, amounts to a party.
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    LOL!

    @iainjwatson

    Treasury sources say that 'time constraints' are preventing @RishiSunak from doing media interviews today

    He would have to have colossal powers of self restraint to not let a smirk flutter across his face as questions about BJ were thrown at him. Sunak has a tendency to smirk in any case, so wise move.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,163
    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    Are Ministers and Tory MPs really going to be expected to go out and tell the country and their constituents the Prime Minister thought an event advertised with the words “it’s lovely weather” and “bring your own booze” was a work event.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,947

    LOL!

    @iainjwatson

    Treasury sources say that 'time constraints' are preventing @RishiSunak from doing media interviews today

    In one thing HYUFD is correct - Rishi won't want to weld the sword, because of potential backlash. While a stalking horse candidate is not how it works, whoever actually delivers the blow will not be someone who expects to get the crown...
    Unless no one major delivers the blow of course.
    For all we know the 54th letter could be going in at any time. From 54 highly obscure people.
    We won't know till it has happened though.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,163

    LOL!

    @iainjwatson

    Treasury sources say that 'time constraints' are preventing @RishiSunak from doing media interviews today

    He would have to have colossal powers of self restraint to not let a smirk flutter across his face as questions about BJ were thrown at him. Sunak has a tendency to smirk in any case, so wise move.
    He should have just booked a morning at the dentist.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,793

    Be kind, Conservative MPs. Put the fool out of the misery.

    Indeed!

    Boris has become as pathetic as Brown in his final weeks and months.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,163

    imagine if he does hang on what two more years of this do to the Tory vote

    I'm really looking forward to this weekend's polls.
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    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ping said:

    Boris is doing serious damage to the Tory party.

    Cummings is trying to do serious damage to the Tory Party and if he wants a Tory civil war he will get one
    You and your tank v the conservative mps whose jobs are facing extinction
    They aren't, the last polls had Labour just 3-5% ahead before this attempted Cummings coup.

    Even after most Tory voters want Boris to stay according to the polls last night. In any case the next general election is over 2 years away
    You keep saying "attempted Cummings coup" as if you've come up with a clever new line.

    But did Cummings force Johnson to hold those parties? Did he force him to lie repeatedly as it emerged?

    No doubt Cummings is loving all this, but your desperate desire to see Johnson as the poor victim, so you can kiss it better, is ludicrous. He has brought ALL of this on himself.
    There was no party, merely some after work thankyou drinks Boris briefly attended in a month beaches like Durdle Door were packed.

    This is a Cummings attempted coup, no more no less
    You astonish me and many others

    There is an e mail inviting 100 staff to the event and asking them to bring a bottle

    70 or so had the good sense to stay away, but 30 did attend and the fact Boris and Carrie went along for 25 minutes makes it clear it was not a work event as why was Carrie there

    Furthermore, Cummings apparently warned against the event and did not attend It

    This is not a Cummings coup, it is Boris caught out once again and as my son commented (and he is a conservative) Carrie is at the root of all this with her extravagant wallpaper and her love of partying

    Time both Boris and Carrie left no 10
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    MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,440
    https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/tunisia-egypt-intelligence-officer-plotting-ennahda-crackdown

    Tunisia the one (sort of) success from the Arab uprisings has been fucked by Egypt and the gulf.

    Seems a little like South America in the 70s-80s with regimes supporting regimes. I'm sure some home grown CONDOR like nonsense is going on in the background too.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419

    LOL!

    @iainjwatson

    Treasury sources say that 'time constraints' are preventing @RishiSunak from doing media interviews today

    In one thing HYUFD is correct - Rishi won't want to weld the sword, because of potential backlash. While a stalking horse candidate is not how it works, whoever actually delivers the blow will not be someone who expects to get the crown...
    Why should anyone deliver the blow?

    Sure, a high-profile resignation and speech could topple Johnson but it's not needed. The letters are sent, and the Confidence vote conducted, in secret.
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    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ping said:

    Boris is doing serious damage to the Tory party.

    Cummings is trying to do serious damage to the Tory Party and if he wants a Tory civil war he will get one
    You and your tank v the conservative mps whose jobs are facing extinction
    They aren't, the last polls had Labour just 3-5% ahead before this attempted Cummings coup.

    Even after most Tory voters want Boris to stay according to the polls last night. In any case the next general election is over 2 years away
    You keep saying "attempted Cummings coup" as if you've come up with a clever new line.

    But did Cummings force Johnson to hold those parties? Did he force him to lie repeatedly as it emerged?

    No doubt Cummings is loving all this, but your desperate desire to see Johnson as the poor victim, so you can kiss it better, is ludicrous. He has brought ALL of this on himself.
    There was no party, merely some after work thankyou drinks Boris briefly attended in a month beaches like Durdle Door were packed.

    This is a Cummings attempted coup, no more no less
    Lets pull this apart:
    There was no party, merely some after work thankyou drinks

    You are clear this was not a work event - this was "after work". So that's you saying the PM is wrong to say it was a work event.

    The email went to 100 people - so this was not "after work" in that the 100 people were all not working together on the same thing. A "please join us" round robin is by definition being sent to people not part of whatever work was being done immediately before it.

    "thankyou drinks" - or as the email put it "socially distanced drinks in the No10 garden" was illegal. A minister restated that such things were illegal a few hours before on TV

    Boris briefly attended in a month beaches like Durdle Door were packed.

    You confirm his illegal attendance at an illegal event - thanks

    "beaches were packed". Mmmm, and the police were out moving people on and issuing fines for the people most flagrantly breaching the law. Sending out an invite to 100 people for an illegal event is more flagrant than many of the people prosecuted.

    I do appreciate the mental gymnastics you are doing to keep defending this. But when it fails, when he is dragged out of Downing Street he will be gone but the way that you have debased yourself here will remain.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,141

    kinabalu said:

    The betting - a slight drift in the odds of Johnson going. So on that metric PMQs was a marginal win for him.

    Is that a marginal win, or just saying that Johnson's comments indicate he is determined to try to brazen it out rather than going either quickly or later in the year?

    In my view, it says more about clarifying his state of mind than about his performance (which was objectively sh1t).
    Yes, exactly that. It's clear he's not going unless forced to by his party.

    And his party won't unless the public force them to (via the polls).

    The people have the power here. Just as it should be.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,855
    dixiedean said:

    LOL!

    @iainjwatson

    Treasury sources say that 'time constraints' are preventing @RishiSunak from doing media interviews today

    In one thing HYUFD is correct - Rishi won't want to weld the sword, because of potential backlash. While a stalking horse candidate is not how it works, whoever actually delivers the blow will not be someone who expects to get the crown...
    Unless no one major delivers the blow of course.
    For all we know the 54th letter could be going in at any time. From 54 highly obscure people.
    We won't know till it has happened though.
    Yes, and the letters are anonymous, so no-one except Sir Graham knows when they arrived. Then it’s an immediate and straight vote of confidence, YES/NO.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,141
    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Johnson's problem is the stuff about saying he didn't realise it was a party. It's the thing that will be latched onto - it's so ridiculous, and that sort of thing cuts through.

    The way his opponents are going on, it’s as if they invited a load of outsiders, caterers and a DJ, and kept going until three in the morning.
    Johnson is still lying though. This is the problem.
    What did he say that was untrue?
    Making out he thought it was an essential work gathering rather than a social.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,390
    HYUFD said:

    Whoever in Number 10 said "give an insincere apology, call it a work event and say 'lets wait for the enquiry'" needs firing. Won't last out the next half hour.

    I disagree, he was genuine, Starmer too snappy.
    Genuine ?

    Genuine LOL.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,957
    edited January 2022

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ping said:

    Boris is doing serious damage to the Tory party.

    Cummings is trying to do serious damage to the Tory Party and if he wants a Tory civil war he will get one
    You and your tank v the conservative mps whose jobs are facing extinction
    They aren't, the last polls had Labour just 3-5% ahead before this attempted Cummings coup.

    Even after most Tory voters want Boris to stay according to the polls last night. In any case the next general election is over 2 years away
    You keep saying "attempted Cummings coup" as if you've come up with a clever new line.

    But did Cummings force Johnson to hold those parties? Did he force him to lie repeatedly as it emerged?

    No doubt Cummings is loving all this, but your desperate desire to see Johnson as the poor victim, so you can kiss it better, is ludicrous. He has brought ALL of this on himself.
    There was no party, merely some after work thankyou drinks Boris briefly attended in a month beaches like Durdle Door were packed.

    This is a Cummings attempted coup, no more no less
    Lets pull this apart:
    There was no party, merely some after work thankyou drinks

    You are clear this was not a work event - this was "after work". So that's you saying the PM is wrong to say it was a work event.

    The email went to 100 people - so this was not "after work" in that the 100 people were all not working together on the same thing. A "please join us" round robin is by definition being sent to people not part of whatever work was being done immediately before it.

    "thankyou drinks" - or as the email put it "socially distanced drinks in the No10 garden" was illegal. A minister restated that such things were illegal a few hours before on TV

    Boris briefly attended in a month beaches like Durdle Door were packed.

    You confirm his illegal attendance at an illegal event - thanks

    "beaches were packed". Mmmm, and the police were out moving people on and issuing fines for the people most flagrantly breaching the law. Sending out an invite to 100 people for an illegal event is more flagrant than many of the people prosecuted.

    I do appreciate the mental gymnastics you are doing to keep defending this. But when it fails, when he is dragged out of Downing Street he will be gone but the way that you have debased yourself here will remain.
    The police weren't doing much of a job about enforcing it, not only was Durdle Door beach for example packed in May 2020 it even had tombstoners
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/durdle-door-beach-cliffs-police-social-distance-a9541266.html
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,818

    stjohn said:

    Bill Clinton: "It depends on what the meaning of the word "is" is."

    Boris Johnson: "It depends on what the meaning of the word "party" is."

    To be fair, it doesn't really sound like much of a party to me - unless there was lots of music and snogging going on? I know this was a Conservative do and Boris was there, so the latter was probably going on, but the former?

    So what defines a party? Thinking about it (probably not enough):
    Music.
    Different clothes from your usual attire.
    Drink and food/nibbles.

    There's probably a whole range of possibilities, from 'work do' through 'get-together', to 'party' and 'SeanT-style debauched hedonistic jamboree."
    It should make zero difference whether it was a party or not. Gathering exemptions, making them lawful, were not for things that were not parties, but for essential work meetings. Do you think this was in any sense an essential work meeting?
    A 2 year old could tear his non apology for his criminal activities to pieces.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,947
    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    LOL!

    @iainjwatson

    Treasury sources say that 'time constraints' are preventing @RishiSunak from doing media interviews today

    In one thing HYUFD is correct - Rishi won't want to weld the sword, because of potential backlash. While a stalking horse candidate is not how it works, whoever actually delivers the blow will not be someone who expects to get the crown...
    Unless no one major delivers the blow of course.
    For all we know the 54th letter could be going in at any time. From 54 highly obscure people.
    We won't know till it has happened though.
    Yes, and the letters are anonymous, so no-one except Sir Graham knows when they arrived. Then it’s an immediate and straight vote of confidence, YES/NO.
    I wonder if the little noticed removal of the Whip from Anne Marie Morris this morning may have reduced the total by one?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903

    stjohn said:

    Bill Clinton: "It depends on what the meaning of the word "is" is."

    Boris Johnson: "It depends on what the meaning of the word "party" is."

    To be fair, it doesn't really sound like much of a party to me - unless there was lots of music and snogging going on? I know this was a Conservative do and Boris was there, so the latter was probably going on, but the former?

    So what defines a party? Thinking about it (probably not enough):
    Music.
    Different clothes from your usual attire.
    Drink and food/nibbles.

    There's probably a whole range of possibilities, from 'work do' through 'get-together', to 'party' and 'SeanT-style debauched hedonistic jamboree."
    It should make zero difference whether it was a party or not. Gathering exemptions, making them lawful, were not for things that were not parties, but for essential work meetings. Do you think this was in any sense an essential work meeting?
    No.

    It was wrong. I'm just saying I don't really think it was a 'party'.
    Bring your own booze = party
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,855
    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Johnson's problem is the stuff about saying he didn't realise it was a party. It's the thing that will be latched onto - it's so ridiculous, and that sort of thing cuts through.

    The way his opponents are going on, it’s as if they invited a load of outsiders, caterers and a DJ, and kept going until three in the morning.
    Johnson is still lying though. This is the problem.
    What did he say that was untrue?
    Making out he thought it was an essential work gathering rather than a social.
    That’s his thoughts, whether you believe them or not.

    Where are the untrue facts that the PM said to Parliament?

    I am thinking of all the trans activists rubbishing Dave Chappelle’s special, but none of them providing quotes to back up what exactly was so awful about it.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,141

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ping said:

    Boris is doing serious damage to the Tory party.

    Cummings is trying to do serious damage to the Tory Party and if he wants a Tory civil war he will get one
    You and your tank v the conservative mps whose jobs are facing extinction
    They aren't, the last polls had Labour just 3-5% ahead before this attempted Cummings coup.

    Even after most Tory voters want Boris to stay according to the polls last night. In any case the next general election is over 2 years away
    You keep saying "attempted Cummings coup" as if you've come up with a clever new line.

    But did Cummings force Johnson to hold those parties? Did he force him to lie repeatedly as it emerged?

    No doubt Cummings is loving all this, but your desperate desire to see Johnson as the poor victim, so you can kiss it better, is ludicrous. He has brought ALL of this on himself.
    It's a virtual fact that Cummings is leaking all this material, is it?
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,818
    IanB2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Johnson's problem is the stuff about saying he didn't realise it was a party. It's the thing that will be latched onto - it's so ridiculous, and that sort of thing cuts through.

    The way his opponents are going on, it’s as if they invited a load of outsiders, caterers and a DJ, and kept going until three in the morning.
    Missing the point once again: Lying to the HoC.
    Again, what exactly did he say that’s untrue?
    That he was “angry” and “furious” when he found out what his staff had been up to in his garden.
    Yes after sitting with them for 25 minutes.
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 3,885
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ping said:

    Boris is doing serious damage to the Tory party.

    Cummings is trying to do serious damage to the Tory Party and if he wants a Tory civil war he will get one
    You and your tank v the conservative mps whose jobs are facing extinction
    They aren't, the last polls had Labour just 3-5% ahead before this attempted Cummings coup.

    Even after most Tory voters want Boris to stay according to the polls last night. In any case the next general election is over 2 years away
    You keep saying "attempted Cummings coup" as if you've come up with a clever new line.

    But did Cummings force Johnson to hold those parties? Did he force him to lie repeatedly as it emerged?

    No doubt Cummings is loving all this, but your desperate desire to see Johnson as the poor victim, so you can kiss it better, is ludicrous. He has brought ALL of this on himself.
    There was no party, merely some after work thankyou drinks Boris briefly attended in a month beaches like Durdle Door were packed.

    This is a Cummings attempted coup, no more no less
    Sorry I need some help as Covid has fuzzed my brain a bit.

    Cummings is attempting a “coup”, as in an overthrow of a government or replacement of a leader, by writing about Boris’ misdeeds (technical or moral) and maybe even leaking pictures?

    Nothing to do with Boris actually doing these things, or the many people who wanted rid of Boris when Cummings and him were BFFs, or people who Boris crossed in the past getting their revenge?

    I think you are giving Cummings too much credit and seeing him as the Wizard of Oz and not the small man hiding behind the curtain.

    There are many people who’ve been holding evidence of Boris fucking up waiting for the moment to strike - Cummings is just one of many sticking their knife in.
  • Options
    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Laura K thinks we will hear from sue Grey in a week to 10 days
  • Options
    kamskikamski Posts: 4,229
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ping said:

    Boris is doing serious damage to the Tory party.

    Cummings is trying to do serious damage to the Tory Party and if he wants a Tory civil war he will get one
    You and your tank v the conservative mps whose jobs are facing extinction
    They aren't, the last polls had Labour just 3-5% ahead before this attempted Cummings coup.

    Even after most Tory voters want Boris to stay according to the polls last night. In any case the next general election is over 2 years away
    You keep saying "attempted Cummings coup" as if you've come up with a clever new line.

    But did Cummings force Johnson to hold those parties? Did he force him to lie repeatedly as it emerged?

    No doubt Cummings is loving all this, but your desperate desire to see Johnson as the poor victim, so you can kiss it better, is ludicrous. He has brought ALL of this on himself.
    There was no party, merely some after work thankyou drinks Boris briefly attended in a month beaches like Durdle Door were packed.

    This is a Cummings attempted coup, no more no less
    Lets pull this apart:
    There was no party, merely some after work thankyou drinks

    You are clear this was not a work event - this was "after work". So that's you saying the PM is wrong to say it was a work event.

    The email went to 100 people - so this was not "after work" in that the 100 people were all not working together on the same thing. A "please join us" round robin is by definition being sent to people not part of whatever work was being done immediately before it.

    "thankyou drinks" - or as the email put it "socially distanced drinks in the No10 garden" was illegal. A minister restated that such things were illegal a few hours before on TV

    Boris briefly attended in a month beaches like Durdle Door were packed.

    You confirm his illegal attendance at an illegal event - thanks

    "beaches were packed". Mmmm, and the police were out moving people on and issuing fines for the people most flagrantly breaching the law. Sending out an invite to 100 people for an illegal event is more flagrant than many of the people prosecuted.

    I do appreciate the mental gymnastics you are doing to keep defending this. But when it fails, when he is dragged out of Downing Street he will be gone but the way that you have debased yourself here will remain.
    The police weren't doing much of a job about enforcing it, not only was Durdle Door beach for example packed in May 2020 it even had tombstoners
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/durdle-door-beach-cliffs-police-social-distance-a9541266.html
    Don't think it was illegal to go to a beach at the time? I guess it would have been illegal to invite 100 people to meet you at the beach.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,947
    edited January 2022
    PM touring the tea rooms. Sign of panic says Laura K.
    Wonder if he's brought his own booze?
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,582
    edited January 2022

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ping said:

    Boris is doing serious damage to the Tory party.

    Cummings is trying to do serious damage to the Tory Party and if he wants a Tory civil war he will get one
    You and your tank v the conservative mps whose jobs are facing extinction
    They aren't, the last polls had Labour just 3-5% ahead before this attempted Cummings coup.

    Even after most Tory voters want Boris to stay according to the polls last night. In any case the next general election is over 2 years away
    You keep saying "attempted Cummings coup" as if you've come up with a clever new line.

    But did Cummings force Johnson to hold those parties? Did he force him to lie repeatedly as it emerged?

    No doubt Cummings is loving all this, but your desperate desire to see Johnson as the poor victim, so you can kiss it better, is ludicrous. He has brought ALL of this on himself.
    There was no party, merely some after work thankyou drinks Boris briefly attended in a month beaches like Durdle Door were packed.

    This is a Cummings attempted coup, no more no less
    Lets pull this apart:
    There was no party, merely some after work thankyou drinks

    You are clear this was not a work event - this was "after work". So that's you saying the PM is wrong to say it was a work event.

    The email went to 100 people - so this was not "after work" in that the 100 people were all not working together on the same thing. A "please join us" round robin is by definition being sent to people not part of whatever work was being done immediately before it.

    "thankyou drinks" - or as the email put it "socially distanced drinks in the No10 garden" was illegal. A minister restated that such things were illegal a few hours before on TV

    Boris briefly attended in a month beaches like Durdle Door were packed.

    You confirm his illegal attendance at an illegal event - thanks

    "beaches were packed". Mmmm, and the police were out moving people on and issuing fines for the people most flagrantly breaching the law. Sending out an invite to 100 people for an illegal event is more flagrant than many of the people prosecuted.

    I do appreciate the mental gymnastics you are doing to keep defending this. But when it fails, when he is dragged out of Downing Street he will be gone but the way that you have debased yourself here will remain.
    Agree. This is just like the MrEd justification post this morning: It's ok because other people were doing it. Try that in a court of law. If valid you would have to let off every criminal because another criminal had done it before. It is a bizarre argument.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ping said:

    Boris is doing serious damage to the Tory party.

    Cummings is trying to do serious damage to the Tory Party and if he wants a Tory civil war he will get one
    You and your tank v the conservative mps whose jobs are facing extinction
    They aren't, the last polls had Labour just 3-5% ahead before this attempted Cummings coup.

    Even after most Tory voters want Boris to stay according to the polls last night. In any case the next general election is over 2 years away
    You keep saying "attempted Cummings coup" as if you've come up with a clever new line.

    But did Cummings force Johnson to hold those parties? Did he force him to lie repeatedly as it emerged?

    No doubt Cummings is loving all this, but your desperate desire to see Johnson as the poor victim, so you can kiss it better, is ludicrous. He has brought ALL of this on himself.
    There was no party, merely some after work thankyou drinks Boris briefly attended in a month beaches like Durdle Door were packed.

    This is a Cummings attempted coup, no more no less
    Lets pull this apart:
    There was no party, merely some after work thankyou drinks

    You are clear this was not a work event - this was "after work". So that's you saying the PM is wrong to say it was a work event.

    The email went to 100 people - so this was not "after work" in that the 100 people were all not working together on the same thing. A "please join us" round robin is by definition being sent to people not part of whatever work was being done immediately before it.

    "thankyou drinks" - or as the email put it "socially distanced drinks in the No10 garden" was illegal. A minister restated that such things were illegal a few hours before on TV

    Boris briefly attended in a month beaches like Durdle Door were packed.

    You confirm his illegal attendance at an illegal event - thanks

    "beaches were packed". Mmmm, and the police were out moving people on and issuing fines for the people most flagrantly breaching the law. Sending out an invite to 100 people for an illegal event is more flagrant than many of the people prosecuted.

    I do appreciate the mental gymnastics you are doing to keep defending this. But when it fails, when he is dragged out of Downing Street he will be gone but the way that you have debased yourself here will remain.
    The police weren't doing much of a job about enforcing it, not only was Durdle Door beach for example packed in May 2020 it even had tombstoners
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/durdle-door-beach-cliffs-police-social-distance-a9541266.html
    Lets pull this apart:
    The police weren't doing much of a job about enforcing it

    So you accept that the police were enforcing it

    So you accept there was an "it" to enforce

    So you accept the party was illegal

    No wonder you refused to answer the "hypothetical" about whether if the PM breaks the law that he should resign.

    Because he broke the law. As you now freely admit.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,880
    Are we sure there is “more to come”?

    Conceptually that is hard to imagine. Perhaps a 1970s-themed keys-in-the-bowl party for swingers in Number 10 with videos of Boris in a purple toga being fellated by Sunak’s wife even as he video calls the Nation to announce lockdown 3 might put him in a tighter spot but

    1 if the Tories know this is coming, surely better to admit it now and claim the blow-job as a “work event” and

    2 if it’s just more tattle about cheese-and-wine it will be subject to the law of diminishing returns which means

    3 Boris might just survive this as the nation’s short sharp Omicron wave of anger fades away

    Whether his survival is good or bad for the Tories is a very different question
  • Options
    DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,118
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ping said:

    Boris is doing serious damage to the Tory party.

    Cummings is trying to do serious damage to the Tory Party and if he wants a Tory civil war he will get one
    You and your tank v the conservative mps whose jobs are facing extinction
    They aren't, the last polls had Labour just 3-5% ahead before this attempted Cummings coup.

    Even after most Tory voters want Boris to stay according to the polls last night. In any case the next general election is over 2 years away
    You keep saying "attempted Cummings coup" as if you've come up with a clever new line.

    But did Cummings force Johnson to hold those parties? Did he force him to lie repeatedly as it emerged?

    No doubt Cummings is loving all this, but your desperate desire to see Johnson as the poor victim, so you can kiss it better, is ludicrous. He has brought ALL of this on himself.
    There was no party, merely some after work thankyou drinks Boris briefly attended in a month beaches like Durdle Door were packed.

    This is a Cummings attempted coup, no more no less
    Give it up. After work drinks were banned. Socialising was de facto banned. People at Durdle Door were not running the country and telling people how to behave.

    Why am I wasting my time on you…?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,579
    LauraK R4 Johnson is touring the tea-rooms very unusual for Johnson and “a sign of real panic”.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    One important thing to note is that this event was at 6pm. That's after pretty much all 'office hours',

    So how can it be a work event if it's post work?
  • Options
    EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ping said:

    Boris is doing serious damage to the Tory party.

    Cummings is trying to do serious damage to the Tory Party and if he wants a Tory civil war he will get one
    You and your tank v the conservative mps whose jobs are facing extinction
    They aren't, the last polls had Labour just 3-5% ahead before this attempted Cummings coup.

    Even after most Tory voters want Boris to stay according to the polls last night. In any case the next general election is over 2 years away
    You keep saying "attempted Cummings coup" as if you've come up with a clever new line.

    But did Cummings force Johnson to hold those parties? Did he force him to lie repeatedly as it emerged?

    No doubt Cummings is loving all this, but your desperate desire to see Johnson as the poor victim, so you can kiss it better, is ludicrous. He has brought ALL of this on himself.
    It's a virtual fact that Cummings is leaking all this material, is it?
    Probably, but "coup" implies he gains something out of any change in administration, rather than, as is more likely, pure spite.
  • Options
    GIN1138 said:

    Be kind, Conservative MPs. Put the fool out of the misery.

    Indeed!

    Boris has become as pathetic as Brown in his final weeks and months.
    To be honest, I think Brown actually had a really good last few weeks and months in office in many ways. It was the financial crisis and in many ways he was in his element as a big, serious figure on the international stage. His authority on that level, certainly, hadn't drained away. World leaders including Obama and Merkel speak very highly of his role at that time, and his leadership on some of the issues.

    The elephant in the room was that he was well behind in the polls domestically and having bold plans to reform the international financial system isn't worth many votes - although he'd recovered a little in the final six months.

    So I agree Brown was doomed, and had many flaws as PM, but I dispute the view that he was cowering and lacking in all authority as Johnson is.
  • Options
    IshmaelZ said:

    Laura K thinks we will hear from sue Grey in a week to 10 days

    Civil servant to get the big blame, resign, then a load of non exec director roles and a peerage in 2023, maybe even one of those PPE have a free taxpayers £20million type contracts. Boris to get a slap on the wrist.
  • Options
    UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 780

    Sandpit said:

    None of the ladies on Sky news buying Johnsons BS.

    Burley and Rigby, Sky News’s party experts.
    You keep saying this, but it is not relevant. Burley and Rigby didn’t create Covid specific criminal offences for one.
    I'm trying to find it, but I heard of a trial involving an Australian politician who voted to create a criminal offence, subsequently was found guilty of said offence and his vote was held to be an aggrevating factor in sentencing.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,855
    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    LOL!

    @iainjwatson

    Treasury sources say that 'time constraints' are preventing @RishiSunak from doing media interviews today

    In one thing HYUFD is correct - Rishi won't want to weld the sword, because of potential backlash. While a stalking horse candidate is not how it works, whoever actually delivers the blow will not be someone who expects to get the crown...
    Unless no one major delivers the blow of course.
    For all we know the 54th letter could be going in at any time. From 54 highly obscure people.
    We won't know till it has happened though.
    Yes, and the letters are anonymous, so no-one except Sir Graham knows when they arrived. Then it’s an immediate and straight vote of confidence, YES/NO.
    I wonder if the little noticed removal of the Whip from Anne Marie Morris this morning may have reduced the total by one?
    What was Ms Morris’s offence?
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited January 2022
    Leon said:

    Are we sure there is “more to come”?

    Conceptually that is hard to imagine. Perhaps a 1970s-themed keys-in-the-bowl party for swingers in Number 10 with videos of Boris in a purple toga being fellated by Sunak’s wife even as he video calls the Nation to announce lockdown 3 might put him in a tighter spot but

    1 if the Tories know this is coming, surely better to admit it now and claim the blow-job as a “work event” and

    2 if it’s just more tattle about cheese-and-wine it will be subject to the law of diminishing returns which means

    3 Boris might just survive this as the nation’s short sharp Omicron wave of anger fades away

    Whether his survival is good or bad for the Tories is a very different question

    Short of an Abigail's Party-style nude extravaganza, there is supposed to be that video from the press conference briefing room, with the subject this time being the Johnson's aides talking about his indiscretions. Cummings may be saving that one for next week, if it exists.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,932
    edited January 2022

    LOL!

    @iainjwatson

    Treasury sources say that 'time constraints' are preventing @RishiSunak from doing media interviews today

    In one thing HYUFD is correct - Rishi won't want to weld the sword, because of potential backlash. While a stalking horse candidate is not how it works, whoever actually delivers the blow will not be someone who expects to get the crown...
    Why should anyone deliver the blow?

    Sure, a high-profile resignation and speech could topple Johnson but it's not needed. The letters are sent, and the Confidence vote conducted, in secret.
    The question is when will the letters be sent - on one hand I'm surprised they haven't already arrived in sufficient numbers on the other I can see why MPs may want to see if things die down.

    But what I would really love is so quiet competent leadership (I actually don't even care who is in charge) from our Government and that can only come when Boris has gone.
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,731
    edited January 2022
    Punters, It’s worth paying attention to @HYUFD

    Sunak may well be too tainted by Cummings, in any post Boris leadership election.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,867
    This is the image Labour shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves just tweeted out… https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1481254601865183232/photo/1
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,804
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ping said:

    Boris is doing serious damage to the Tory party.

    Cummings is trying to do serious damage to the Tory Party and if he wants a Tory civil war he will get one
    You and your tank v the conservative mps whose jobs are facing extinction
    They aren't, the last polls had Labour just 3-5% ahead before this attempted Cummings coup.

    Even after most Tory voters want Boris to stay according to the polls last night. In any case the next general election is over 2 years away
    You keep saying "attempted Cummings coup" as if you've come up with a clever new line.

    But did Cummings force Johnson to hold those parties? Did he force him to lie repeatedly as it emerged?

    No doubt Cummings is loving all this, but your desperate desire to see Johnson as the poor victim, so you can kiss it better, is ludicrous. He has brought ALL of this on himself.
    There was no party, merely some after work thankyou drinks Boris briefly attended in a month beaches like Durdle Door were packed.

    This is a Cummings attempted coup, no more no less
    Lets pull this apart:
    There was no party, merely some after work thankyou drinks

    You are clear this was not a work event - this was "after work". So that's you saying the PM is wrong to say it was a work event.

    The email went to 100 people - so this was not "after work" in that the 100 people were all not working together on the same thing. A "please join us" round robin is by definition being sent to people not part of whatever work was being done immediately before it.

    "thankyou drinks" - or as the email put it "socially distanced drinks in the No10 garden" was illegal. A minister restated that such things were illegal a few hours before on TV

    Boris briefly attended in a month beaches like Durdle Door were packed.

    You confirm his illegal attendance at an illegal event - thanks

    "beaches were packed". Mmmm, and the police were out moving people on and issuing fines for the people most flagrantly breaching the law. Sending out an invite to 100 people for an illegal event is more flagrant than many of the people prosecuted.

    I do appreciate the mental gymnastics you are doing to keep defending this. But when it fails, when he is dragged out of Downing Street he will be gone but the way that you have debased yourself here will remain.
    The police weren't doing much of a job about enforcing it, not only was Durdle Door beach for example packed in May 2020 it even had tombstoners
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/durdle-door-beach-cliffs-police-social-distance-a9541266.html
    And Boris didn't even dive bomb the party from his window.

    What's the problem?
  • Options
    Leon said:

    Are we sure there is “more to come”?

    Conceptually that is hard to imagine. Perhaps a 1970s-themed keys-in-the-bowl party for swingers in Number 10 with videos of Boris in a purple toga being fellated by Sunak’s wife even as he video calls the Nation to announce lockdown 3 might put him in a tighter spot but

    1 if the Tories know this is coming, surely better to admit it now and claim the blow-job as a “work event” and

    2 if it’s just more tattle about cheese-and-wine it will be subject to the law of diminishing returns which means

    3 Boris might just survive this as the nation’s short sharp Omicron wave of anger fades away

    Whether his survival is good or bad for the Tories is a very different question

    Yes we are sure there is more to come. Every time an allegation breaks, Boris obfuscates and lies and then proof breaks to damn him. Then a separate allegation breaks, Boris obfuscates and lies and then proof breaks to damn him.

    Of course there is more. We haven't had full details of NutNut's "We got Dom sacked" party yert. Nor pulled out everything there is to know about this garden party. Someone will have a video of Johnson which directly contradicts even what he tried to spin today about only having been there for 25 minutes.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,947
    Endillion said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ping said:

    Boris is doing serious damage to the Tory party.

    Cummings is trying to do serious damage to the Tory Party and if he wants a Tory civil war he will get one
    You and your tank v the conservative mps whose jobs are facing extinction
    They aren't, the last polls had Labour just 3-5% ahead before this attempted Cummings coup.

    Even after most Tory voters want Boris to stay according to the polls last night. In any case the next general election is over 2 years away
    You keep saying "attempted Cummings coup" as if you've come up with a clever new line.

    But did Cummings force Johnson to hold those parties? Did he force him to lie repeatedly as it emerged?

    No doubt Cummings is loving all this, but your desperate desire to see Johnson as the poor victim, so you can kiss it better, is ludicrous. He has brought ALL of this on himself.
    It's a virtual fact that Cummings is leaking all this material, is it?
    Probably, but "coup" implies he gains something out of any change in administration, rather than, as is more likely, pure spite.
    Coup implies something illegal.
    The only illegality here is the PM's behaviour.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    LOL!

    @iainjwatson

    Treasury sources say that 'time constraints' are preventing @RishiSunak from doing media interviews today

    In one thing HYUFD is correct - Rishi won't want to weld the sword, because of potential backlash. While a stalking horse candidate is not how it works, whoever actually delivers the blow will not be someone who expects to get the crown...
    Unless no one major delivers the blow of course.
    For all we know the 54th letter could be going in at any time. From 54 highly obscure people.
    We won't know till it has happened though.
    Yes, and the letters are anonymous, so no-one except Sir Graham knows when they arrived. Then it’s an immediate and straight vote of confidence, YES/NO.
    I wonder if the little noticed removal of the Whip from Anne Marie Morris this morning may have reduced the total by one?
    What was Ms Morris’s offence?
    Voting to cut VAT on gas & electricity.
  • Options
    Apropos of nothing very much, caught a glimpse of PMQs and mask wearing seems to be very much de rigeur again, even on the Tory benches. BJ's honour guard on the front bench were all masked up, to block the stench of death perhaps or hide expressions.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,867
    A Tory grandee turned to a member of the 2019 intake of MPs, who may play a decisive role in deciding Boris Johnson’s future, to ask their thoughts on PM’s statement. The 2019er told their fellow MP that the PM’s statement was meaningless and it’s over for him
    https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1481252611093409792
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,932

    Leon said:

    Are we sure there is “more to come”?

    Conceptually that is hard to imagine. Perhaps a 1970s-themed keys-in-the-bowl party for swingers in Number 10 with videos of Boris in a purple toga being fellated by Sunak’s wife even as he video calls the Nation to announce lockdown 3 might put him in a tighter spot but

    1 if the Tories know this is coming, surely better to admit it now and claim the blow-job as a “work event” and

    2 if it’s just more tattle about cheese-and-wine it will be subject to the law of diminishing returns which means

    3 Boris might just survive this as the nation’s short sharp Omicron wave of anger fades away

    Whether his survival is good or bad for the Tories is a very different question

    Yes we are sure there is more to come. Every time an allegation breaks, Boris obfuscates and lies and then proof breaks to damn him. Then a separate allegation breaks, Boris obfuscates and lies and then proof breaks to damn him.

    Of course there is more. We haven't had full details of NutNut's "We got Dom sacked" party yert. Nor pulled out everything there is to know about this garden party. Someone will have a video of Johnson which directly contradicts even what he tried to spin today about only having been there for 25 minutes.
    The one thing unlikely to appear is video because No 10 (as with all secure sites) has you leaving your phones at the entrance.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    LOL!

    @iainjwatson

    Treasury sources say that 'time constraints' are preventing @RishiSunak from doing media interviews today

    In one thing HYUFD is correct - Rishi won't want to weld the sword, because of potential backlash. While a stalking horse candidate is not how it works, whoever actually delivers the blow will not be someone who expects to get the crown...
    Unless no one major delivers the blow of course.
    For all we know the 54th letter could be going in at any time. From 54 highly obscure people.
    We won't know till it has happened though.
    Yes, and the letters are anonymous, so no-one except Sir Graham knows when they arrived. Then it’s an immediate and straight vote of confidence, YES/NO.
    I wonder if the little noticed removal of the Whip from Anne Marie Morris this morning may have reduced the total by one?
    What was Ms Morris’s offence?
    Voting with the opposition on their energy motion:

    https://order-order.com/2022/01/12/anne-marie-morris-confirms-removal-of-whip/

    Better than the last time she lost the whip...
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,947
    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    LOL!

    @iainjwatson

    Treasury sources say that 'time constraints' are preventing @RishiSunak from doing media interviews today

    In one thing HYUFD is correct - Rishi won't want to weld the sword, because of potential backlash. While a stalking horse candidate is not how it works, whoever actually delivers the blow will not be someone who expects to get the crown...
    Unless no one major delivers the blow of course.
    For all we know the 54th letter could be going in at any time. From 54 highly obscure people.
    We won't know till it has happened though.
    Yes, and the letters are anonymous, so no-one except Sir Graham knows when they arrived. Then it’s an immediate and straight vote of confidence, YES/NO.
    I wonder if the little noticed removal of the Whip from Anne Marie Morris this morning may have reduced the total by one?
    What was Ms Morris’s offence?
    Voting for the VAT on fuel removal.
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Johnson's problem is the stuff about saying he didn't realise it was a party. It's the thing that will be latched onto - it's so ridiculous, and that sort of thing cuts through.

    The way his opponents are going on, it’s as if they invited a load of outsiders, caterers and a DJ, and kept going until three in the morning.
    Johnson is still lying though. This is the problem.
    What did he say that was untrue?
    Making out he thought it was an essential work gathering rather than a social.
    That’s his thoughts, whether you believe them or not.

    Where are the untrue facts that the PM said to Parliament?

    I am thinking of all the trans activists rubbishing Dave Chappelle’s special, but none of them providing quotes to back up what exactly was so awful about it.
    The PM does not believe it was essential for work to invite 100 people to turn up with a bottle in a garden, but not require them to attend or have any agenda. Sorry but it is pathetic to continue to pretend he does. It was a clear 100% lie to say no rules were broken.
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,582
    edited January 2022
    Leon said:

    Are we sure there is “more to come”?

    Conceptually that is hard to imagine. Perhaps a 1970s-themed keys-in-the-bowl party for swingers in Number 10 with videos of Boris in a purple toga being fellated by Sunak’s wife even as he video calls the Nation to announce lockdown 3 might put him in a tighter spot but

    1 if the Tories know this is coming, surely better to admit it now and claim the blow-job as a “work event” and

    2 if it’s just more tattle about cheese-and-wine it will be subject to the law of diminishing returns which means

    3 Boris might just survive this as the nation’s short sharp Omicron wave of anger fades away

    Whether his survival is good or bad for the Tories is a very different question

    Bearing in mind several of us thought a poster yesterday mentioned Boris being in a thong rather than a throng at the party anything is possible.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,141
    edited January 2022
    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Johnson's problem is the stuff about saying he didn't realise it was a party. It's the thing that will be latched onto - it's so ridiculous, and that sort of thing cuts through.

    The way his opponents are going on, it’s as if they invited a load of outsiders, caterers and a DJ, and kept going until three in the morning.
    Johnson is still lying though. This is the problem.
    What did he say that was untrue?
    Making out he thought it was an essential work gathering rather than a social.
    That’s his thoughts, whether you believe them or not.

    Where are the untrue facts that the PM said to Parliament?

    I am thinking of all the trans activists rubbishing Dave Chappelle’s special, but none of them providing quotes to back up what exactly was so awful about it.
    No, that's what he *said* his thoughts were. A lie.

    I say to someone "come and meet my dog" and they do, they come and see it, give it a stroke and a pat, then the next day they tell me they thought it was a cat - it's on this level of credulity.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,970
    Mr. Dean, I can't say if the PM will bring his own booze but I'm sure his MPs will appreciate the need to socially distance from him.
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    eekeek Posts: 24,932

    Apropos of nothing very much, caught a glimpse of PMQs and mask wearing seems to be very much de rigeur again, even on the Tory benches. BJ's honour guard on the front bench were all masked up, to block the stench of death perhaps or hide expressions.

    If I was a Tory MP I would have had to wear a mask today in a vague attempt to hide my expressions as Boris spoke.

    I suspect most Tory MPs were doing the same for the same reason.
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    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,244
    ping said:

    Punters, It’s worth paying attention to @HYUFD

    Sunak may well be too tainted by Cummings, in any post Boris leadership election.

    HYUFD as an ardent Pro Jonnsonite is a small subset of the relevant voting groups. Certainly with the MPs, who almost all used him for party gain. By the time it gets to the selectorate, I doubt Cummings will be a major factor in choosing between Sunak vs AN Other
  • Options
    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Johnson's problem is the stuff about saying he didn't realise it was a party. It's the thing that will be latched onto - it's so ridiculous, and that sort of thing cuts through.

    The way his opponents are going on, it’s as if they invited a load of outsiders, caterers and a DJ, and kept going until three in the morning.
    Johnson is still lying though. This is the problem.
    What did he say that was untrue?
    Making out he thought it was an essential work gathering rather than a social.
    That’s his thoughts, whether you believe them or not.

    Where are the untrue facts that the PM said to Parliament?

    I am thinking of all the trans activists rubbishing Dave Chappelle’s special, but none of them providing quotes to back up what exactly was so awful about it.
    No, that's what he *said* his thought were. A lie.

    I say to someone "come and meet my dog" and they do, they come and see it, give it a stroke and a pat, then the next day they tell me they thought it was a cat - it's on this level of credulity.
    Or Harry's dogs Monaco bank account with millions in it.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ping said:

    Boris is doing serious damage to the Tory party.

    Cummings is trying to do serious damage to the Tory Party and if he wants a Tory civil war he will get one
    You and your tank v the conservative mps whose jobs are facing extinction
    They aren't, the last polls had Labour just 3-5% ahead before this attempted Cummings coup.

    Even after most Tory voters want Boris to stay according to the polls last night. In any case the next general election is over 2 years away
    You keep saying "attempted Cummings coup" as if you've come up with a clever new line.

    But did Cummings force Johnson to hold those parties? Did he force him to lie repeatedly as it emerged?

    No doubt Cummings is loving all this, but your desperate desire to see Johnson as the poor victim, so you can kiss it better, is ludicrous. He has brought ALL of this on himself.
    There was no party, merely some after work thankyou drinks Boris briefly attended in a month beaches like Durdle Door were packed.

    This is a Cummings attempted coup, no more no less
    Lets pull this apart:
    There was no party, merely some after work thankyou drinks

    You are clear this was not a work event - this was "after work". So that's you saying the PM is wrong to say it was a work event.

    The email went to 100 people - so this was not "after work" in that the 100 people were all not working together on the same thing. A "please join us" round robin is by definition being sent to people not part of whatever work was being done immediately before it.

    "thankyou drinks" - or as the email put it "socially distanced drinks in the No10 garden" was illegal. A minister restated that such things were illegal a few hours before on TV

    Boris briefly attended in a month beaches like Durdle Door were packed.

    You confirm his illegal attendance at an illegal event - thanks

    "beaches were packed". Mmmm, and the police were out moving people on and issuing fines for the people most flagrantly breaching the law. Sending out an invite to 100 people for an illegal event is more flagrant than many of the people prosecuted.

    I do appreciate the mental gymnastics you are doing to keep defending this. But when it fails, when he is dragged out of Downing Street he will be gone but the way that you have debased yourself here will remain.
    The police weren't doing much of a job about enforcing it, not only was Durdle Door beach for example packed in May 2020 it even had tombstoners
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/durdle-door-beach-cliffs-police-social-distance-a9541266.html
    Lets pull this apart:
    The police weren't doing much of a job about enforcing it

    So you accept that the police were enforcing it

    So you accept there was an "it" to enforce

    So you accept the party was illegal

    No wonder you refused to answer the "hypothetical" about whether if the PM breaks the law that he should resign.

    Because he broke the law. As you now freely admit.
    What law did they break? The regulations covering gatherings only relates to public places, and they would have had an exemption on the restrictions of movement because of their job.
  • Options
    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Are we sure there is “more to come”?

    Conceptually that is hard to imagine. Perhaps a 1970s-themed keys-in-the-bowl party for swingers in Number 10 with videos of Boris in a purple toga being fellated by Sunak’s wife even as he video calls the Nation to announce lockdown 3 might put him in a tighter spot but

    1 if the Tories know this is coming, surely better to admit it now and claim the blow-job as a “work event” and

    2 if it’s just more tattle about cheese-and-wine it will be subject to the law of diminishing returns which means

    3 Boris might just survive this as the nation’s short sharp Omicron wave of anger fades away

    Whether his survival is good or bad for the Tories is a very different question

    Yes we are sure there is more to come. Every time an allegation breaks, Boris obfuscates and lies and then proof breaks to damn him. Then a separate allegation breaks, Boris obfuscates and lies and then proof breaks to damn him.

    Of course there is more. We haven't had full details of NutNut's "We got Dom sacked" party yert. Nor pulled out everything there is to know about this garden party. Someone will have a video of Johnson which directly contradicts even what he tried to spin today about only having been there for 25 minutes.
    The one thing unlikely to appear is video because No 10 (as with all secure sites) has you leaving your phones at the entrance.
    Leave secure phones at the entrance? Phones used by the staff?
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    edited January 2022
    https://twitter.com/SirRogerGale/status/1481249367793315840

    Sir Roger Gale MP
    @SirRogerGale
    ‘Bring a bottle’ to a ‘work event’ is a novel idea! Very thin ice indeed.


    No one's buying it...
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,947
    Stephen Hammond claims the problem was Boris "wasn't properly briefed".
    If your PM needs briefing as to what a party is we may have a problem.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,947
    edited January 2022
    Sir Roger Gale wants him out. First to break cover?
    He says today's statement shows he wilfully misled the House.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,855
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    LOL!

    @iainjwatson

    Treasury sources say that 'time constraints' are preventing @RishiSunak from doing media interviews today

    In one thing HYUFD is correct - Rishi won't want to weld the sword, because of potential backlash. While a stalking horse candidate is not how it works, whoever actually delivers the blow will not be someone who expects to get the crown...
    Unless no one major delivers the blow of course.
    For all we know the 54th letter could be going in at any time. From 54 highly obscure people.
    We won't know till it has happened though.
    Yes, and the letters are anonymous, so no-one except Sir Graham knows when they arrived. Then it’s an immediate and straight vote of confidence, YES/NO.
    I wonder if the little noticed removal of the Whip from Anne Marie Morris this morning may have reduced the total by one?
    What was Ms Morris’s offence?
    Voting to cut VAT on gas & electricity.
    Ah okay, voting on an Opposition day motion. Silly thing to be suspended for, the PM might need all the votes he can get by next week.

    That VAT cut is a banana skin for the government too, they should have dropped it on Day 1 of leaving the EU, same as they did with tampons.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,880

    Leon said:

    Are we sure there is “more to come”?

    Conceptually that is hard to imagine. Perhaps a 1970s-themed keys-in-the-bowl party for swingers in Number 10 with videos of Boris in a purple toga being fellated by Sunak’s wife even as he video calls the Nation to announce lockdown 3 might put him in a tighter spot but

    1 if the Tories know this is coming, surely better to admit it now and claim the blow-job as a “work event” and

    2 if it’s just more tattle about cheese-and-wine it will be subject to the law of diminishing returns which means

    3 Boris might just survive this as the nation’s short sharp Omicron wave of anger fades away

    Whether his survival is good or bad for the Tories is a very different question

    Yes we are sure there is more to come. Every time an allegation breaks, Boris obfuscates and lies and then proof breaks to damn him. Then a separate allegation breaks, Boris obfuscates and lies and then proof breaks to damn him.

    Of course there is more. We haven't had full details of NutNut's "We got Dom sacked" party yert. Nor pulled out everything there is to know about this garden party. Someone will have a video of Johnson which directly contradicts even what he tried to spin today about only having been there for 25 minutes.
    You wish. We shall see

    I’m doubtful there is anything more damaging than this (which, by the way, is clearly very damaging)

    We may be about to witness a collision between the irresistible force of political scandal and the immovable object of Borisovian chutzpah. I wouldn’t necessarily bet against The Chutzpah
  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sandpit said:

    dixiedean said:

    LOL!

    @iainjwatson

    Treasury sources say that 'time constraints' are preventing @RishiSunak from doing media interviews today

    In one thing HYUFD is correct - Rishi won't want to weld the sword, because of potential backlash. While a stalking horse candidate is not how it works, whoever actually delivers the blow will not be someone who expects to get the crown...
    Unless no one major delivers the blow of course.
    For all we know the 54th letter could be going in at any time. From 54 highly obscure people.
    We won't know till it has happened though.
    Yes, and the letters are anonymous, so no-one except Sir Graham knows when they arrived. Then it’s an immediate and straight vote of confidence, YES/NO.
    I wonder if the little noticed removal of the Whip from Anne Marie Morris this morning may have reduced the total by one?
    What was Ms Morris’s offence?
    Supported Opposition motion to cut VAT on fuel.

    Appalling behaviour, and quite right that she be disciplined by (checks notes) Boris Johnson.
  • Options
    EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Johnson's problem is the stuff about saying he didn't realise it was a party. It's the thing that will be latched onto - it's so ridiculous, and that sort of thing cuts through.

    The way his opponents are going on, it’s as if they invited a load of outsiders, caterers and a DJ, and kept going until three in the morning.
    Johnson is still lying though. This is the problem.
    What did he say that was untrue?
    Making out he thought it was an essential work gathering rather than a social.
    That’s his thoughts, whether you believe them or not.

    Where are the untrue facts that the PM said to Parliament?

    I am thinking of all the trans activists rubbishing Dave Chappelle’s special, but none of them providing quotes to back up what exactly was so awful about it.
    Isn't the point that he previously told the Commons "there was no party", and now he's been clear that he knew there was, because he was at it? Or does it not count because it was a different party that he denied happening?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    dixiedean said:

    Sir Roger Gale wants him out. First to break cover?
    He says today's statement shows he wilfully misled the House.

    Gale's wanted him gone for ages.
  • Options

    OGH texted me this morning asking who the FLSOJ is?

    Awks.

    Frequent Liar, Silly Old Johnson.
  • Options
    alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    One of the most endearing traits of the U.K. is the extent to which Britons loath hypocrisy.

    Most of Boris' scandals didn't stick to him because he wasn't hypocritical about them.

    But now that he has committed the cardinal sin of British politics, he's in serious trouble.


    https://twitter.com/Yascha_Mounk/status/1481244604905459715?s=20

    “Britons loathe hypocrisy”? Eh?

    In other countries British hypocrisy is seen as practically a core national characteristic! Although I suppose loathing it perhaps even makes the perception even more true!
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    Endillion said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Johnson's problem is the stuff about saying he didn't realise it was a party. It's the thing that will be latched onto - it's so ridiculous, and that sort of thing cuts through.

    The way his opponents are going on, it’s as if they invited a load of outsiders, caterers and a DJ, and kept going until three in the morning.
    Johnson is still lying though. This is the problem.
    What did he say that was untrue?
    Making out he thought it was an essential work gathering rather than a social.
    That’s his thoughts, whether you believe them or not.

    Where are the untrue facts that the PM said to Parliament?

    I am thinking of all the trans activists rubbishing Dave Chappelle’s special, but none of them providing quotes to back up what exactly was so awful about it.
    Isn't the point that he previously told the Commons "there was no party", and now he's been clear that he knew there was, because he was at it? Or does it not count because it was a different party that he denied happening?
    Ah but be believed the party 'wasn't a party' is the defence.

    Which is a shit defence, but its what he's going with,
This discussion has been closed.