politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP has “44% lead in Clacton”

TheScreamingEagles said:

Poor Sir Paul McCartney, if being married to Heather Mills wasn't bad enough, he's now about to feel the ire of the Cybernats.

Sir Paul McCartney has become the latest celebrity to call for Scotland to stay part of the UK ahead of the country's historic vote on independence.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/sir-paul-mccartney-backs-lets-stay-together.1409401720

'Don't give Scotland back to the Scottish'.

I'm disappointed not to have heard more from Sir Cliff on the special place Scotland occupies in his heart.

Strangely enough, he gave an interview to the Daily Mail reeling of the names of whiskies, he claims he likes.
His former boss, ex-Chancellor Norman Lamont, introduced him to the Orkney malt Highland Park (‘I think it was his Budget Day tipple,’ Mr Cameron says), and now he is a fan of a number of island malts.

‘Most of all I love Jura whisky but I also like Lagavulin, Caol Ila, Talisker – almost all of them,’ he says.

‘I’ll willingly try anything.’

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2738215/Of-whisky-seals-wild-swims-fate-Scotland-deeply-personal-David-William-Donald-Cameron.html

AndyJS said:

I hope Cameron had two or three strong whiskies before being informed of the results of this poll in Clacton.

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Poor Sir Paul McCartney, if being married to Heather Mills wasn't bad enough, he's now about to feel the ire of the Cybernats.

Sir Paul McCartney has become the latest celebrity to call for Scotland to stay part of the UK ahead of the country's historic vote on independence.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/sir-paul-mccartney-backs-lets-stay-together.1409401720

'Don't give Scotland back to the Scottish'.

I'm disappointed not to have heard more from Sir Cliff on the special place Scotland occupies in his heart.

I would like to confirm that I did not help Labour MP Anne Maguire write this

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwSitiXIgAABdwY.jpg:large

Sean_F said:

surbiton said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Poor Sir Paul McCartney, if being married to Heather Mills wasn't bad enough, he's now about to feel the ire of the Cybernats.

Sir Paul McCartney has become the latest celebrity to call for Scotland to stay part of the UK ahead of the country's historic vote on independence.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/sir-paul-mccartney-backs-lets-stay-together.1409401720

To be fair, who the **** is he ? Just because he sang Mull of Kintyre ?

Wings are the band that the Beatles could have been.

Paul McCartney will be remembered most fondly of all the Beatles, but unfortunately will have to die first.

The case is well made here (note, this book is not authored by Alan Partridge!):

http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/0571281974/ref=oh_aui_detailpage_o02_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1

TheScreamingEagles said:

Theuniondivvie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Poor Sir Paul McCartney, if being married to Heather Mills wasn't bad enough, he's now about to feel the ire of the Cybernats.

Sir Paul McCartney has become the latest celebrity to call for Scotland to stay part of the UK ahead of the country's historic vote on independence.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/sir-paul-mccartney-backs-lets-stay-together.1409401720

'Don't give Scotland back to the Scottish'.

I'm disappointed not to have heard more from Sir Cliff on the special place Scotland occupies in his heart.

I would like to confirm that I did not help Labour MP Anne Maguire write this

I bet she reads nighthawks...

GeoffM said:

Socrates said:

Smarmeron said:

@Socrates
It's the way the law is written, it was issued on the grounds that the parents "might" have been guilty of neglect.

So any EU government can get people arrested across the continent if they claim the people "might" have done something wrong?

That is frightening.

It's typical of the way in which the justice system both here and abroad is getting its priorities wrong.

Better Together don't throw eggs.................

It’s all over twitter, but:

A member of the BNP campaigning to save the Union kicked a pregnant Yes activist in the stomach today in Glasgow. Just FYI.

It will probably not make the BBC, unlike Eggman.

MikeL said:

The threat to Cameron isn't Carswell, it is further defections.

The key is whether UKIP can maintain high media profile right through to the GE.

Whatever happens in Clacton, if it is done and dusted in October it will then fade. And far better for Cameron to put out some statement saying Carswell has a huge personal following, good constituency MP, no point wasting money challenging him. That may look bad but it turns it into a short-term story.
.

I don't think that would work, but I do think it has a better chance of making it seem less impactful than the alternative, as I do not think you are right that whatever happens it will fade. Only anoraks like us will get really excited, but a sitting MP for UKIP in 2015 who can also point to the fact that he won a FPTP election already under the UKIP banner? That slashes the portion of UKIPers who might switch back to the Tories out of fear down to the bare minimum (and whether it would ever have been a large number is questionable), as there is direct proof UKIP can marshall enough support to win. Not all places will be as amenable to that as Clacton, but fewer UKipers will even consider voting tactically as Carswell will prove they can do it.

RodCrosby said:

Essex Man bites back?

Time to look at other Essex seats...

John Baron / Basildon&Billericay, Priti Patel / Witham, Robert Halfon / Harlow, Mark Francois / Rayleigh.

MikeL said:

The threat to Cameron isn't Carswell, it is further defections.

The key is whether UKIP can maintain high media profile right through to the GE.

Whatever happens in Clacton, if it is done and dusted in October it will then fade. And far better for Cameron to put out some statement saying Carswell has a huge personal following, good constituency MP, no point wasting money challenging him. That may look bad but it turns it into a short-term story.

The killer for Cameron is more defections in Oct/Nov/Dec and by-elections in Jan/Feb/Mar.

I think any by-election post Christmas and he has no chance at the GE.

Con could refuse to move writs for by-elections but presumably Lab would move them so he has nowhere to go.

I don't think they have to worry about MPs defecting.

The danger is a further move among Conservative activists/voters to UKIP, and a demoralisation of the rump.

And of course the boost to UKIP activist/supporter morale.

RodCrosby said:

The question surely now becomes, re further defections:-

Not "If", but "How many?"

malcolmg said:

Better Together don't throw eggs.................

It’s all over twitter, but:

A member of the BNP campaigning to save the Union kicked a pregnant Yes activist in the stomach today in Glasgow. Just FYI.

It will probably not make the BBC, unlike Eggman.

Godsdamned BNP - if they had any brains, they'd realise that if they want something to occur, they should campaign for the exact opposite to happen, as everyone hates them.

AndyJS said:

RodCrosby said:

Essex Man bites back?

Time to look at other Essex seats...

John Baron / Basildon&Billericay, Priti Patel / Witham, Robert Halfon / Harlow, Mark Francois / Rayleigh.

Angela Watkinson, Hornchurch and Upminster?

kle4 said:

RodCrosby said:

The question surely now becomes, re further defections:-

Not "If", but "How many?"

malcolmg said:

Better Together don't throw eggs.................

It’s all over twitter, but:

A member of the BNP campaigning to save the Union kicked a pregnant Yes activist in the stomach today in Glasgow. Just FYI.

It will probably not make the BBC, unlike Eggman.

Godsdamned BNP - if they had any brains, they'd realise that if they want something to occur, they should campaign for the exact opposite to happen, as everyone hates them.

Their pals in NO campaign like them , Better Together

Socrates said:

old_labour said:

Scotland on Sunday
Detectives investigate Scottish Rotherham.
http://imgur.com/a/QRbBv

If the coverage of this gets picked up, we'll have crossed the Rubicon. As soon as the general public at large becomes aware this has happened in more than one place, the "how many cities" question will cause it to explode.

I think everyone knows that Rotherham was not an isolated case, but we need someone bold who is willing to speak truth to power to lead the investigation.

Prof Jay needs to widen her role, and would deserve the grateful thanks of a nation were she to expose the problem nationally to the same extent.

RodCrosby said:

The question surely now becomes, re further defections:-

Not "If", but "How many?"

And, less significantly, if all/almost all the defections are from the Tories, will that have any impact on UKIP's cross party anti-establishment appeal to its base, or will the increased profile and sheer momentum, and the euphoria of forcing establishment figures to come to their side, negate any concern that they might be portrayed as, (as Tories wish were the case) just another bunch of (slightly more ok) Tories?

@malcolmg
Is there a link to an account of this story from a witness? The four pictures don't give much clarity.

RodCrosby said:

The question surely now becomes, re further defections:-

Not "If", but "How many?"

Most Conservatives are UKIP at heart.

Easterross said:

This is a poll from Survation. Someone remind us how accurate they have proved to be in the past? Looks like they surveyed the UKIP association membership excluding the duly selected UKIP candidate!

Got Newark within the MOE for Con and UKIP

Peter Kellner in the Sunday Times concludes with this

Let’s assume that Farage is behaving rationally. Logic suggests why he wants Labour to win. It is that his real ambition is to reshape Britain’s political Right. He wants the Tories to lose, tear themselves apart as the different wings blame each other for defeat, and then split over the best way forward. Farage would be waiting in the wings, offering to join forces with Conservative eurosceptics – so that, before long, he could take them over.

The point is not that the Conservative drama is bound play out like this, but that Farage thinks it might. If that is his dream, it is a more attractive prospect than a Cameron victory, a referendum in 2017 and (as YouGov polls suggest) a likely vote to stay in the EU. Were that to happen, Farage and Ukip would be finished.

That’s the logic; but it is not just logic. Over the years I have discussed Ukip’s prospects with a number of the party’s leading lights. I have found a simmering tension between those whose main aim is an early vote on Europe, and those who are driven more by Ukip’s long-term prospects as a political force. Either Farage is stupid – and I don’t believe he is – or he sits firmly with those who would sacrifice a referendum for a shot at lasting glory.

Flightpath said:

Socrates said:

How on Earth was there a European Arrest Warrant for these parents of this kid with a tumour if they hadn't been accused of breaking any law?

By definition since a warrant has been issued they have been accused of breaking the law - neglect. Since you are not guilty until proven innocent then everyone who is arrested is arrested because they 'might' have done something.
And 'governments' do not issue warrants - the police do. The warrant is no different to if these people were still at large in the UK, it just also applies in Europe. Fortunately for the dangerously ill child.

The Mail has a good video from the father.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2737458/Missing-Ashya-King-taken-parents-Southampton-General-Hospital.html

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tonight's YouGov for The Sunday Times

Con 32, Lab 36, LD 7, UKIP 16

LAB 347 CON 259 LD 17 (UKPR)

EICIPM

malcolmg said:

Better Together don't throw eggs.................

It’s all over twitter, but:

A member of the BNP campaigning to save the Union kicked a pregnant Yes activist in the stomach today in Glasgow. Just FYI.

It will probably not make the BBC, unlike Eggman.

The BNP are not part of the better together campaign. I suspect there is no shortage of people the BNP would like to kick.
I am a bit surprised about the nastiness that Scots seem to have for their fellow Scots. I hope it is not sectarian based.

foxinsoxuk said:

Socrates said:

old_labour said:

Scotland on Sunday
Detectives investigate Scottish Rotherham.
http://imgur.com/a/QRbBv

If the coverage of this gets picked up, we'll have crossed the Rubicon. As soon as the general public at large becomes aware this has happened in more than one place, the "how many cities" question will cause it to explode.

I think everyone knows that Rotherham was not an isolated case, but we need someone bold who is willing to speak truth to power to lead the investigation.

Prof Jay needs to widen her role, and would deserve the grateful thanks of a nation were she to expose the problem nationally to the same extent.

I
Can she investigate the Westminster paedophile ring too whilst she's at it? May as well get the taxpayer's money's worth.

I wish Channel 4's 2004 documentary "The Edge of the City" were available online. Can't find it anywhere.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/3602854.stm

Socrates said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Socrates said:

old_labour said:

Scotland on Sunday
Detectives investigate Scottish Rotherham.
http://imgur.com/a/QRbBv

If the coverage of this gets picked up, we'll have crossed the Rubicon. As soon as the general public at large becomes aware this has happened in more than one place, the "how many cities" question will cause it to explode.

I think everyone knows that Rotherham was not an isolated case, but we need someone bold who is willing to speak truth to power to lead the investigation.

Prof Jay needs to widen her role, and would deserve the grateful thanks of a nation were she to expose the problem nationally to the same extent.

I think everyone political does, but the vast bulk of the population are not that political. They haven't realised that this is a nationwide thing in dozens of places. Thus it's not about one town having failing institutions - it's about a deep moral decay. When that reality sets in, the public mood will be explosive. That's why the political-media elite have covered it up for so long.

It is not just England or Scotland:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2237170/Why-Amsterdams-legal-brothels-lesson-Britain-telling-truth-sex-gangs-race.html

Charles said:

Sean_F said:

RodCrosby said:

The question surely now becomes, re further defections:-

Not "If", but "How many?"

Most Conservatives are UKIP at heart.

I'm not, and I doubt @TSE is either

I suspect many candidates will be trying to imply they are come 2015. Not all their seats will be as amendable to a possible UKIP win so even if they are so inclined they won't want to risk defection, but if UKIPers do not feel they can back the local Tory they could let in Labour, so we'll probably see dozens of MPs all but saying they will do whatever UKIP want, just please don't campaign hard in my constituency!

Was there child sex grooming going on before these revelations?
If so, who was doing it before the Muslims cornered the market?

One interesting value is the decline in the Labour vote - which should hold steady as Lib Dems switch to Labour countering Labour to UKIP switchers. Rotherham is a long way from Clacton but . . .

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Sunday Times have got a great piece on this.

1) Zac Goldsmith will defect to UKIP. He told The Sunday Times he was in tune with many of Ukip’s policies and if the party “entirely embraced the environmental agenda I might be tempted”.

2) Three more MPs will do a Carswell unless Cameron gets tougher with Brussels

3) Another Tory will defect but only after December when it will not be necessary to hold a by-election

4) Tory MPs are about to ignore Dave and form their own alliances/non-aggression pacts with UKIP

If UKIP embraced Zac's "green agenda" they would lose a great deal of support from the "denier" wing.

Socrates said:

Flightpath said:

Socrates said:

How on Earth was there a European Arrest Warrant for these parents of this kid with a tumour if they hadn't been accused of breaking any law?

By definition since a warrant has been issued they have been accused of breaking the law - neglect. Since you are not guilty until proven innocent then everyone who is arrested is arrested because they 'might' have done something.
And 'governments' do not issue warrants - the police do. The warrant is no different to if these people were still at large in the UK, it just also applies in Europe. Fortunately for the dangerously ill child.

Yes, but there's a reasonable standard of evidence needed to arrest people in this country - and an independent police complaints commission if they abuse it. What protections do we have from police forces in dodgy Eastern European nations.

"What protections do we have from police forces in dodgy Eastern European nations"

None.

That is what the fuss has been about. I am amazed that you only now seem to be waking up to this. What is more the UK had an automatic opt out this year. However Cameron thinks the EU Arrest warrant such a spiffing idea, despite its total lack of protections for Her Majesty's subjects, that he has decided we must opt back in.

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Sunday Times have got a great piece on this.

1) Zac Goldsmith will defect to UKIP. He told The Sunday Times he was in tune with many of Ukip’s policies and if the party “entirely embraced the environmental agenda I might be tempted”.

2) Three more MPs will do a Carswell unless Cameron gets tougher with Brussels

3) Another Tory will defect but only after December when it will not be necessary to hold a by-election

4) Tory MPs are about to ignore Dave and form their own alliances/non-aggression pacts with UKIP

Ooh ukip are 100/1 in Richmond... But I think they'll lose even w zac

TheScreamingEagles said:

Peter Kellner in the Sunday Times concludes with this

Let’s assume that Farage is behaving rationally. Logic suggests why he wants Labour to win. It is that his real ambition is to reshape Britain’s political Right. He wants the Tories to lose, tear themselves apart as the different wings blame each other for defeat, and then split over the best way forward. Farage would be waiting in the wings, offering to join forces with Conservative eurosceptics – so that, before long, he could take them over.

The point is not that the Conservative drama is bound play out like this, but that Farage thinks it might. If that is his dream, it is a more attractive prospect than a Cameron victory, a referendum in 2017 and (as YouGov polls suggest) a likely vote to stay in the EU. Were that to happen, Farage and Ukip would be finished.

That’s the logic; but it is not just logic. Over the years I have discussed Ukip’s prospects with a number of the party’s leading lights. I have found a simmering tension between those whose main aim is an early vote on Europe, and those who are driven more by Ukip’s long-term prospects as a political force. Either Farage is stupid – and I don’t believe he is – or he sits firmly with those who would sacrifice a referendum for a shot at lasting glory.

This seems quite plausible, indeed I would say quite likely. Monomania dissolving into megalomania.
As a lifelong Tory voter I take a dim view of someone wanting to destroy the Tory party and facilitating a Labour victory as a means to this end. Clearly the Left in British politics has twice the brainpower of the Right.

Smarmeron said:

Was there child sex grooming going on before these revelations?
If so, who was doing it before the Muslims cornered the market?

I pointed out the other day that these gangs were using well established ways that pimps use all over the world to recruit vulnerable young girls into prostitution.

http://www.mmp.org/node/13

Most prostitutes start while underage:

http://www.mmp.org/node/23

The difference is that the authorities (police and social workers in particular) seem to not be interested in stopping these particular gangs, according to Prof Jay's report, for reasons that are potentially explosive.

@GeoffM
What was the average age of the brides for his peers?
Child brides were pretty common here at one time?

Flightpath said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Peter Kellner in the Sunday Times concludes with this

Let’s assume that Farage is behaving rationally. Logic suggests why he wants Labour to win. It is that his real ambition is to reshape Britain’s political Right. He wants the Tories to lose, tear themselves apart as the different wings blame each other for defeat, and then split over the best way forward. Farage would be waiting in the wings, offering to join forces with Conservative eurosceptics – so that, before long, he could take them over.

The point is not that the Conservative drama is bound play out like this, but that Farage thinks it might. If that is his dream, it is a more attractive prospect than a Cameron victory, a referendum in 2017 and (as YouGov polls suggest) a likely vote to stay in the EU. Were that to happen, Farage and Ukip would be finished.

That’s the logic; but it is not just logic. Over the years I have discussed Ukip’s prospects with a number of the party’s leading lights. I have found a simmering tension between those whose main aim is an early vote on Europe, and those who are driven more by Ukip’s long-term prospects as a political force. Either Farage is stupid – and I don’t believe he is – or he sits firmly with those who would sacrifice a referendum for a shot at lasting glory.

This seems quite plausible, indeed I would say quite likely. Monomania dissolving into megalomania.
As a lifelong Tory voter I take a dim view of someone wanting to destroy the Tory party and facilitating a Labour victory as a means to this end. Clearly the Left in British politics has twice the brainpower of the Right.

Well, the "left" did it all in the early 80's didn't they? I bet in 1981 Roy and Shirl had similar views to Farage now.

Split the right. Destroy the Labour party. There will be a "realignment" that will bring the SDP to power.

Except it didn't happen. All that happened is that Maggie kept winning landslides and the Tories had 18 years of uninterrupted government because the left wing vote was divided.

I have no doubt the same will probably happen again, this time to the Right...

TheScreamingEagles said:

The Sunday Times have got a great piece on this.

1) Zac Goldsmith will defect to UKIP. He told The Sunday Times he was in tune with many of Ukip’s policies and if the party “entirely embraced the environmental agenda I might be tempted”.

2) Three more MPs will do a Carswell unless Cameron gets tougher with Brussels

3) Another Tory will defect but only after December when it will not be necessary to hold a by-election

4) Tory MPs are about to ignore Dave and form their own alliances/non-aggression pacts with UKIP

Even if there's no more defections to UKIP, it's starting to look like the Tories are going to descend into chaos at the election with huge numbers of Tory MPs saying they want out of Europe altogether.

Reminiscent of the 1997 election with so many Tories saying that they were deadset against the Euro, going against the official party line. Even though most of the public also disagreed with the Euro, it still damaged the Tories because of the sense of "if they're going to be spending all their time fighting with eachother, how are they going to have to the time to run the country properly?"

GIN1138 said:

Mike's prediction the other week that he will live out his day's under a Labour government seem more realistic to me now. Wonder if he had an inkling the Right was going to implode on itself?

It's been a slow burn implosion for a while. I even thought they seemed to have gotten a grip on things this year, even if I didn't think it enough to avoid a defeat in 2015 given the scale of the issues they faced, but like many things riven with internal weaknesses, despite a coat of polish eventually even slight pressures have caused the collapse of the whole structure.

OK, that's overdramatic, but win or lose in Clacton, how can the Tories combat the threat of UKIP and defeat Labour at the same time? What is it that will overcome that? Fear of Ed M is not pulling the voters back to them even if they see Ed M as inadequate. Labour are not imploding alongside them. The party is still deeply split on Europe and other issues, so Cameron cannot present a firm vision for a lot of important issues, weakening his campaigning focus and power.

In what way can the Tories make themselves strong enough to overcome even a weakened Labour at this point? I cannot see it.

GIN1138 said:

Flightpath said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Peter Kellner in the Sunday Times concludes with this

Let’s assume that Farage is behaving rationally. Logic suggests why he wants Labour to win. It is that his real ambition is to reshape Britain’s political Right. He wants the Tories to lose, tear themselves apart as the different wings blame each other for defeat, and then split over the best way forward. Farage would be waiting in the wings, offering to join forces with Conservative eurosceptics – so that, before long, he could take them over.

The point is not that the Conservative drama is bound play out like this, but that Farage thinks it might. If that is his dream, it is a more attractive prospect than a Cameron victory, a referendum in 2017 and (as YouGov polls suggest) a likely vote to stay in the EU. Were that to happen, Farage and Ukip would be finished.

That’s the logic; but it is not just logic. Over the years I have discussed Ukip’s prospects with a number of the party’s leading lights. I have found a simmering tension between those whose main aim is an early vote on Europe, and those who are driven more by Ukip’s long-term prospects as a political force. Either Farage is stupid – and I don’t believe he is – or he sits firmly with those who would sacrifice a referendum for a shot at lasting glory.

This seems quite plausible, indeed I would say quite likely. Monomania dissolving into megalomania.
As a lifelong Tory voter I take a dim view of someone wanting to destroy the Tory party and facilitating a Labour victory as a means to this end. Clearly the Left in British politics has twice the brainpower of the Right.

Well, the "left" did it all in the early 80's didn't they? I bet in 1981 Roy and Shirl had similar views to Farage now.

Split the right. Destroy the Labour party. There will be a "realignment" that will bring the SDP to power.

Except it didn't happen. All that happened is that Maggie kept winning landslides and the Tories had 18 years of uninterrupted government because the left wing vote was divided.

I have no doubt the same will probably happen again, this time to the Right...

Have you ever considered that few voters think in terms of left and right and split this and realign that? Maybe quite a lot of voters might be attracted to a party that didn't think in those terms either. Perhaps a party that actually and simply listened to what ordinary people were worried about might actually gain considerable traction.

@Hurst lama
Not exactly child bride, but you get the picture that it didn't start with the Muslims? It always went on at the interface of power and poverty

Eliza Armstrong Case

In 1885, William Stead (1849-1912), editor of the Pall Mall Gazette, brought this whole issue front & center in a series of articles entitled The Maiden Tribute of Modern Babylon during the Victorian Era. He was prosecuted and imprisoned for kidnapping after he published a series of articles proving he could buy a 13 year old chimney sweep’s daughter for £5 by her own mother. His conviction was based on his failure to get “permission” to purchase the girl. Bramwell Booth of the Salvation Army helped Stead purchase the girl. She was purchased by former prostitute Rebecca Jarrett and brought to a brothel lightly-drugged & placed under the care of the Salvation Army and sent to France.

http://victoriantruth.blogspot.co.uk/2008/07/victorian-era-prostitution-in-us-part_20.html