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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP has “44% lead in Clacton”

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited August 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP has “44% lead in Clacton”

According to poll of Clacton voters reported on front page of Mail on Sunday UKIP has a 44% lead
pic.twitter.com/ELzVkKtmv5

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Looks like

    UKIP 64%
    Con 20%
    Lab ? (who cares?)
    LD ? ""
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited August 2014
    I don't often say 1/4 is value but on this occasion looks like it was


    Edit

    Still is! Lads and hills 1/4... Free money if the poll is even half wrong
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    FPT
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    George Osborne doesn't have to make Carswell Steward of whatever right?

    I think those appointments are handled by the Treasury.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    Independent on Sunday front page - "Rotherham: Home Office is investigated" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/RXxnjVXD4Z

    Parliament demand answers over what Tony Blair's ministers and officials knew...

    Hope nobody covered any of this up at higher levels than the council !!!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,986
    Well, it's early days and the contest itself hasn't started. As is often the case with these things, Carswell has had an ice bucket of free publicity poured over him and it's no surprise to see him benefiting.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    It is Survation
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    The last by-election gain by a party (or allied party) which had not contested the seat at the previous general election was the Isle of Ely, 1973 (Liberals)...
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Independent on Sunday front page - "Rotherham: Home Office is investigated" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/RXxnjVXD4Z

    Parliament demand answers over what Tony Blair's ministers and officials knew...

    Hope nobody covered any of this up at higher levels than the council !!!


    oo er

    wonder if anyone is making sure their passport is up to date

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    I know this is unrealistic but from a practical point of view it would be best for Con if they don't stand in the by-election.

    Carswell winning effectively unopposed would amount to the same thing as not having a by-election. There would also be far less media coverage.

    Only downside is it may encourage other defectors!
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Missing boy Ashya King found in Spain.

    Good result for my former classmate, Asst Chief Constable Chris Shead...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    The Screaming Eagles ‏@TSEofPB 5s

    The detail from the Survation MoS poll of Clacton voters
    (via @suttonnick )

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwULiThIQAA5ucl.jpg
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Even if Boris was the Tory candidate, the Tories would get pounded like a Dockside Hooker.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    UKIP 64 (+64)...

    That's what I call a swing
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,507
    Rona Fairhead, the former head of the Financial Times Group, is to be the new chairwoman of the BBC Trust,
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Not convinced by the "What if Boris stood" figures, but as Isam says the poll only needs to be in the right galaxy for Carswell to be cruising to victory. As expected Labour are nowhere and the LDs are nowhere near a deposit.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Civilians digging trenches in Mariupol before the Russians get there. I guess Russia will be claiming this is a spontaneous uprising should they take the place.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    There has to be some tactical Labour to UKIP votes in that.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    MikeL said:

    I know this is unrealistic but from a practical point of view it would be best for Con if they don't stand in the by-election.

    Carswell winning effectively unopposed would amount to the same thing as not having a by-election. There would also be far less media coverage.

    Only downside is it may encourage other defectors!

    The Tories would be conceding they were effectively a defunct party.

    The last time it happened was at the Liverpool Scotland by-election, 1929 when the Irish Nationalists did not contest...

  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    edited August 2014
    RobD said:

    UKIP 64 (+64)...

    That's what I call a swing

    It's a two-party swing of 48.5% Tory to UKIP, isn't it? Would actually beat the post-war record.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Independent on Sunday front page - "Rotherham: Home Office is investigated" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/RXxnjVXD4Z

    Parliament demand answers over what Tony Blair's ministers and officials knew...

    Hope nobody covered any of this up at higher levels than the council !!!

    A point Jane Collins (UKIP Rotherham candidate) made the other day is, this is not a historical issue. The abuse is still going on in Rotherham today.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    RodCrosby said:

    MikeL said:

    I know this is unrealistic but from a practical point of view it would be best for Con if they don't stand in the by-election.

    Carswell winning effectively unopposed would amount to the same thing as not having a by-election. There would also be far less media coverage.

    Only downside is it may encourage other defectors!

    The Tories would be conceding they were effectively a defunct party.

    The last time it happened was at the Liverpool Scotland by-election, 1929 when the Irish Nationalists did not contest...

    I'm not sure that's the case. There's got to be a case for the Tories not standing: it's going to look terrible for them if they get absolutely trounced.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    It's only a 33pt lead if Boris was Tory candidate though

    Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB)
    30/08/2014 22:02
    The detail from the Survation MoS poll of Clacton voters
    pic.twitter.com/Bg2jpSjqxn (via @suttonnick )
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,465
    Sodding Shadsy was still up. Changed the odds to 1/7 before I could get on.

    But fortunately...Sidney sleeps! Thank you William Hill. :-)
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704
    its like the Cleggasm all over again.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,808
    edited August 2014
    Socrates said:

    Civilians digging trenches in Mariupol before the Russians get there. I guess Russia will be claiming this is a spontaneous uprising should they take the place.

    Oh, this is brilliant. Everything you dismiss as a loony tinfoil Anti-American conspiracy despite manifold evidence, when it's levelled at everyone's favourite democracy exporters, you're quite happy to ascribe to those darstardly russians. Can you not see how farcical this is?

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited August 2014
    Quincel said:

    RobD said:

    UKIP 64 (+64)...

    That's what I call a swing

    It's a two-party swing of 48.5% Tory to UKIP, isn't it? Would actually beat the post-war record.
    It would beat the all-time record, although of course strictly speaking it can't be calculated, since UKIP would not have obtained 0% had they stood in 2010...
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited August 2014
    Essex Man bites back?

    Time to look at other Essex seats...
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,465
    @Socrates

    In a funny way, it may be better for DC if Carswell does storm home. He can kind of dismiss it as a protest vote, a sort of freak result. If however the Tories fight the seat hard and are narrowly beaten it kind of looks more serious.

    No?

    No, maybe not.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited August 2014
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Socrates said:

    Civilians digging trenches in Mariupol before the Russians get there. I guess Russia will be claiming this is a spontaneous uprising should they take the place.

    Oh, this is brilliant. Everything you dismiss as a loony tinfoil Anti-American conspiracy despite manifold evidence, when it's levelled at everyone's favourite democracy supporters, you're quite happy to ascribe to those darstardly russians. Can you not see how farcical this is?

    I've read your post several times and I'm still struggling to understand your middle sentence. I don't think it makes grammatical sense. Are you trying to deny that the sudden rebel resurgence isn't down to Russian soldiers?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    RobD said:

    FPT

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    George Osborne doesn't have to make Carswell Steward of whatever right?

    I think those appointments are handled by the Treasury.
    And who is the Second Lord of the Treasury?

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,808
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Independent on Sunday front page - "Rotherham: Home Office is investigated" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/RXxnjVXD4Z

    Parliament demand answers over what Tony Blair's ministers and officials knew...

    Hope nobody covered any of this up at higher levels than the council !!!

    Do Cheif constables report to councils? Or the HC?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Look at the bottom right hand corner of that polling excerpt.

    Vote UKIP get Ed M is a vote winner.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    @Socrates

    In a funny way, it may be better for DC if Carswell does storm home. He can kind of dismiss it as a protest vote, a sort of freak result. If however the Tories fight the seat hard and are narrowly beaten it kind of looks more serious.

    No?

    No, maybe not.

    There are two DC's involved here!!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited August 2014
    26% of Kippers think Cameron is the best party leader, 8% think Milliband is best and only 25% think Farage is the best leader (down from 55%)??? I mean, Cameron more popular than Farage with UKIP voters!?! There is something very fishy on the beach in Essex.

    Unless these kippers all are wanting Carswell to unseat Farage as leader...

    Popcorn time!

    edit: oops, mis-read the table, the bracket figures are for UKIP voters.

    But Cameron still leads Farage in Clacton by a nose.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    FPT

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    George Osborne doesn't have to make Carswell Steward of whatever right?

    I think those appointments are handled by the Treasury.
    And who is the Second Lord of the Treasury?

    Yeah, I worded my reply badly, it was meant to be agreeing with what you said.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    How do you post a link to a twitter photo without the photo being displayed and using up the site's bandwidth?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    old_labour said:

    How do you post a link to a twitter photo without the photo being displayed and using up the site's bandwidth?

    Right click over the image in twitter, click on "open image in new tab" and then copy that new tab's URL
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Can't wait for the computer projections on the night of the by-election...

    UKIP to win almost every seat in the Kingdom?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    foxinsoxuk said:

    26% of Kippers think Cameron is the best party leader, 8% think Milliband is best and only 25% think Farage is the best leader (down from 55%)??? I mean, Cameron more popular than Farage with UKIP voters!?! There is something very fishy on the beach in Essex.

    Unless these kippers all are wanting Carswell to unseat Farage as leader...

    Popcorn time!

    UKIP voters are the numbers in the brackets.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/505814803882184704/photo/1
    Farage in fight to save the Union, claims the Sunday Post.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Thanks.
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    old_labour said:

    How do you post a link to a twitter photo without the photo being displayed and using up the site's bandwidth?

    Right click over the image in twitter, click on "open image in new tab" and then copy that new tab's URL
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    Russia’s invasion of east Ukraine is a 'point of no return' and risks a 'state of war' with Europe, European Union leaders warn - go on, pull the troops out, the EU is no friend of ours.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    anotherDave said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    26% of Kippers think Cameron is the best party leader, 8% think Milliband is best and only 25% think Farage is the best leader (down from 55%)??? I mean, Cameron more popular than Farage with UKIP voters!?! There is something very fishy on the beach in Essex.

    Unless these kippers all are wanting Carswell to unseat Farage as leader...

    Popcorn time!

    UKIP voters are the numbers in the brackets.
    Yep. Silly me!

    A little too much refreshment with dinner possibly to blame...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    We can ignore this poll, until pollsters start asking and naming Roger Lord in the VI questions.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,808
    Socrates said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Socrates said:

    Civilians digging trenches in Mariupol before the Russians get there. I guess Russia will be claiming this is a spontaneous uprising should they take the place.

    Oh, this is brilliant. Everything you dismiss as a loony tinfoil Anti-American conspiracy despite manifold evidence, when it's levelled at everyone's favourite democracy supporters, you're quite happy to ascribe to those darstardly russians. Can you not see how farcical this is?

    I've read your post several times and I'm still struggling to understand your middle sentence. I don't think it makes grammatical sense. Are you trying to deny that the sudden rebel resurgence isn't down to Russian soldiers?
    I think the rebels have had significant Russian support from the very beginning. What I'm questioning is why you are happy to level accusations of staging uprisings (before it's happened) at Russia, but that any questioning of the 'Arab Spring' is dismissed by you as Anti-American conspiracy. Are we allowed to be paranoid tinfoil hat wearers as long as we're accusing Putin?

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Does anyone "trust" Dave to do anything about Europe. I certainly don't. It wont stop me voting for him cause I am a realist.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Making some reasonable assumptions, Baxter gives... wait for it...

    UKIP 606
    Lab 18
    LD 6
    Con 0


    Lol...
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    MikeL said:

    I know this is unrealistic but from a practical point of view it would be best for Con if they don't stand in the by-election.

    Carswell winning effectively unopposed would amount to the same thing as not having a by-election. There would also be far less media coverage.

    Only downside is it may encourage other defectors!

    No it wouldn't. Not standing in an election is a serious business for a main party and would undoubtedly be used (rightly) by UKIP as evidence that the Tories were in retreat before his advancing forces, bordering on a disordered rout. Even if it is likely that you will lose, you still owe it to those who would like to vote for you to put a candidate up if at all possible.

    And as you point out, effectively endorsing the defection would do nothing to inhibit others from doing likewise.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    edited August 2014
    The poll reflects the overwhelming disdain for the political establishment. Given a clear and cost-free option to express that feeling, voters take it. In one sense it would be better to allow Carswell to be returned unopposed, but how could that be justified?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,524
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    We can ignore this poll, until pollsters start asking and naming Roger Lord in the VI questions.

    Roger who?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    We can ignore this poll, until pollsters start asking and naming Roger Lord in the VI questions.

    It looks like he might have had more of a chance than I gave him credit for given the reasons why the voters say they're going to vote ukip
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    RodCrosby said:

    Making some reasonable assumptions, Baxter gives... wait for it...

    UKIP 606
    Lab 18
    LD 6
    Con 0


    Lol...

    The definition of 'nailed on', if there ever was one.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,524
    RodCrosby said:

    Can't wait for the computer projections on the night of the by-election...

    UKIP to win almost every seat in the Kingdom?

    Wouldn't that be a happy result?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Socrates said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Socrates said:

    Civilians digging trenches in Mariupol before the Russians get there. I guess Russia will be claiming this is a spontaneous uprising should they take the place.

    Oh, this is brilliant. Everything you dismiss as a loony tinfoil Anti-American conspiracy despite manifold evidence, when it's levelled at everyone's favourite democracy supporters, you're quite happy to ascribe to those darstardly russians. Can you not see how farcical this is?

    I've read your post several times and I'm still struggling to understand your middle sentence. I don't think it makes grammatical sense. Are you trying to deny that the sudden rebel resurgence isn't down to Russian soldiers?
    I think the rebels have had significant Russian support from the very beginning. What I'm questioning is why you are happy to level accusations of staging uprisings (before it's happened) at Russia, but that any questioning of the 'Arab Spring' is dismissed by you as Anti-American conspiracy. Are we allowed to be paranoid tinfoil hat wearers as long as we're accusing Putin?

    The accusation that I'm currently making - and that you challenged - is that many of the rebel militias in Ukraine are Russian soldiers in unmarked uniforms. There is evidence for this. There is no evidence that large chunks of Arab spring rebellions are really American troops.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    edited August 2014
    Poor Sir Paul McCartney, if being married to Heather Mills wasn't bad enough, he's now about to feel the ire of the Cybernats.

    Sir Paul McCartney has become the latest celebrity to call for Scotland to stay part of the UK ahead of the country's historic vote on independence.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/sir-paul-mccartney-backs-lets-stay-together.1409401720
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,808
    It will be open season on Ukip now. Racist ukip tweets to be revealed in 3, 2,...
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Can the LDs afford to lose £500?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    We can ignore this poll, until pollsters start asking and naming Roger Lord in the VI questions.

    Roger who?
    In case anyone missed it

    Ukip Candidate Roger Lord Threatens To 'Rip Out' Douglas Carswell's Throat

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/08/29/roger-lord-ukip-douglas-carswell_n_5735340.html
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,781
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Independent on Sunday front page - "Rotherham: Home Office is investigated" #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/RXxnjVXD4Z

    Parliament demand answers over what Tony Blair's ministers and officials knew...

    Hope nobody covered any of this up at higher levels than the council !!!

    As the abuse has happened throughout the Blair, Brown and Cameron premierships then its not just Blair's ministers and officials who need to explain themselves.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704
    Somehow the Tories have managed to cock this up royally. Not quite sure how. Too much pandering to UKIP's agenda and not enough time talking about domestic issues,



  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    So carswell was an effete, out of touch member of the establishment as the Conservative MP for Clacton, but as a UKIP MP...
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Con plus like Carswell = matching 2010
    Just sayin.......
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    There got to be a catch in this somewhere for ukip...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    We can ignore this poll, until pollsters start asking and naming Roger Lord in the VI questions.

    Roger who?
    In case anyone missed it

    Ukip Candidate Roger Lord Threatens To 'Rip Out' Douglas Carswell's Throat

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/08/29/roger-lord-ukip-douglas-carswell_n_5735340.html
    Give that man a peerage!....just so he can be Lord Lord.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    How on Earth was there a European Arrest Warrant for these parents of this kid with a tumour if they hadn't been accused of breaking any law?
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/Screenshot 2014-08-30 22.30.31.png

    (Green is UKIP)
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Poll Analysis: Rock or a Hard Place for the Tories !

    Labour will, of course, fight the by-election vigorously !
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    On topic, a dreadful poll for all the main Westminster parties but particularly the Tories as the current holders. Barely better for Labour, who held the previous Harwich constituency from 1997 to 2005 and only just lost it then, when they still polled over 40%.

    If this poll is even remotely close, Clacton is likely to become as defining an election in the breakdown of the three-party system as Torrington and Orpington were for the two-party one.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    Socrates said:

    How on Earth was there a European Arrest Warrant for these parents of this kid with a tumour if they hadn't been accused of breaking any law?

    Have they been arrested?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,496
    edited August 2014
    Foreigners smelling the coffee

    twitter.com/RichardLochhead/status/505766482723504129/photo/1
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Socrates
    It's the way the law is written, it was issued on the grounds that the parents "might" have been guilty of neglect.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited August 2014
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Poor Sir Paul McCartney, if being married to Heather Mills wasn't bad enough, he's now about to feel the ire of the Cybernats.

    Sir Paul McCartney has become the latest celebrity to call for Scotland to stay part of the UK ahead of the country's historic vote on independence.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/sir-paul-mccartney-backs-lets-stay-together.1409401720

    To be fair, who the **** is he ? Just because he sang Mull of Kintyre ?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    isam said:

    There got to be a catch in this somewhere for ukip...

    Cars wells personal vote per the figures. They would be neck and neck without it (roughly)
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Settle down. We have a headline from the Daily Mail. Let us not start imagining that has anything too much to do with reality.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    dyedwoolie said:

    Con plus like Carswell = matching 2010
    Just sayin.......

    The con is 20
    The like Carswell is 34% of 64 which is 22

    That's 44 isn't it?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    edited August 2014
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    We can ignore this poll, until pollsters start asking and naming Roger Lord in the VI questions.

    Roger who?
    In case anyone missed it

    Ukip Candidate Roger Lord Threatens To 'Rip Out' Douglas Carswell's Throat

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/08/29/roger-lord-ukip-douglas-carswell_n_5735340.html
    Give that man a peerage!....just so he can be Lord Lord.
    Sir Michael Lord, the former Tory MP and Deputy Speaker, when he became a Lord, became Lord Framlingham, which was so disappointing.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Lord

    Edit: on the same lines, for a while, the Lord Chief Justice of England and Wales was a Lord Judge
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Smarmeron said:

    @Socrates
    It's the way the law is written, it was issued on the grounds that the parents "might" have been guilty of neglect.

    So any EU government can get people arrested across the continent if they claim the people "might" have done something wrong?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    RobD said:

    Socrates said:

    How on Earth was there a European Arrest Warrant for these parents of this kid with a tumour if they hadn't been accused of breaking any law?

    Have they been arrested?
    If the child was a ward of court (quite possible) then to take the child without permission would be kidnapping.

    I believe that the child has been found in Spain, not sure if the parents have been arrested.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited August 2014
    dyedwoolie said:

    isam said:

    There got to be a catch in this somewhere for ukip...

    Cars wells personal vote per the figures. They would be neck and neck without it (roughly)
    I think you've missed that his personal vote is 34% of 64, not 34%
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    Matthew d'Ancona has a characteristally thoughtful take:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11064331/Carswell-has-just-made-a-Labour-victory-more-likely.html

    Essentially Casrwell is a radical who has joined a quintessentially reactionary party: "His powers of persuasion presumably remain undimmed, but his powers of judgment have gone on a long weekend. "
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    isam said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Con plus like Carswell = matching 2010
    Just sayin.......

    The con is 20
    The like Carswell is 34% of 64 which is 22

    That's 44 isn't it?
    Oops, yes, so 8-9% down in a by election. Not too bad.
    Carswells personal vote is making this a cake walk
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704
    david_herdson said:

    On topic, a dreadful poll for all the main Westminster parties but particularly the Tories as the current holders. Barely better for Labour, who held the previous Harwich constituency from 1997 to 2005 and only just lost it then, when they still polled over 40%.

    If this poll is even remotely close, Clacton is likely to become as defining an election in the breakdown of the three-party system as Torrington and Orpington were for the two-party one.

    With the Liberals on 2 percent, three party politics is here to stay.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited August 2014
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    We can ignore this poll, until pollsters start asking and naming Roger Lord in the VI questions.

    Roger who?
    In case anyone missed it

    Ukip Candidate Roger Lord Threatens To 'Rip Out' Douglas Carswell's Throat

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/08/29/roger-lord-ukip-douglas-carswell_n_5735340.html
    Give that man a peerage!....just so he can be Lord Lord.
    Has this ever happened before? I know we've had Lord Igor Judge, who was Lord Chief Justice Judge, and I believe there is a Mr Justice Laws as well. But Lord Lord would be so perfect. It's a common name, it must have happened.
    anotherDave said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    26% of Kippers think Cameron is the best party leader, 8% think Milliband is best and only 25% think Farage is the best leader (down from 55%)??? I mean, Cameron more popular than Farage with UKIP voters!?! There is something very fishy on the beach in Essex.

    Unless these kippers all are wanting Carswell to unseat Farage as leader...

    Popcorn time!

    UKIP voters are the numbers in the brackets.
    I'm glad I wasn't the only one who needed that pointed out - I was genuinely confused there.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Socrates said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Socrates said:

    Civilians digging trenches in Mariupol before the Russians get there. I guess Russia will be claiming this is a spontaneous uprising should they take the place.

    Oh, this is brilliant. Everything you dismiss as a loony tinfoil Anti-American conspiracy despite manifold evidence, when it's levelled at everyone's favourite democracy supporters, you're quite happy to ascribe to those darstardly russians. Can you not see how farcical this is?

    I've read your post several times and I'm still struggling to understand your middle sentence. I don't think it makes grammatical sense. Are you trying to deny that the sudden rebel resurgence isn't down to Russian soldiers?
    The rebels are winning because the Ukraine army over-extended themselves in their attempt to capture Luhansk and Donetsk. They had most of their strength encircling those two cities and Strelkov - if that's who it was - basically did a Zhukov on them.

    So now his counter attack has got half the Ukraine army surrounded in little pockets and his guys are pushing out to the Donbass borders.

    No doubt Putin is helping them in every way short of Russian tank columns - because pictures of Russian tank columns would be very foolish of him - but the main reason the rebels are winning is Kiev screwed up by being focused on capturing Luhansk and Donetsk.

    imo

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    RobD said:

    Socrates said:

    How on Earth was there a European Arrest Warrant for these parents of this kid with a tumour if they hadn't been accused of breaking any law?

    Have they been arrested?
    They've been found and questioned by police. Not sure if they were formally arrested.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    isam said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    isam said:

    There got to be a catch in this somewhere for ukip...

    Cars wells personal vote per the figures. They would be neck and neck without it (roughly)
    I think you've missed that his personal vote is 34% of 64, not 34%
    Yep, my mistake. However, without it, and assuming us personal vote was overwhelmingly Tory, this would be a bum nipper. Good job Lord didn't get the gig!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I hope Cameron had two or three strong whiskies before being informed of the results of this poll in Clacton.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Socrates
    Apparently so. There only needs to be reasonable grounds for suspicion that a crime has been committed from what I gather. Probably worded as a catch all for terrorists, but it has other uses it seems.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Socrates said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Socrates said:

    Civilians digging trenches in Mariupol before the Russians get there. I guess Russia will be claiming this is a spontaneous uprising should they take the place.

    Oh, this is brilliant. Everything you dismiss as a loony tinfoil Anti-American conspiracy despite manifold evidence, when it's levelled at everyone's favourite democracy supporters, you're quite happy to ascribe to those darstardly russians. Can you not see how farcical this is?

    I've read your post several times and I'm still struggling to understand your middle sentence. I don't think it makes grammatical sense. Are you trying to deny that the sudden rebel resurgence isn't down to Russian soldiers?
    I think the rebels have had significant Russian support from the very beginning. What I'm questioning is why you are happy to level accusations of staging uprisings (before it's happened) at Russia, but that any questioning of the 'Arab Spring' is dismissed by you as Anti-American conspiracy. Are we allowed to be paranoid tinfoil hat wearers as long as we're accusing Putin?

    When "Russians" send arms to Eastern Ukraine to save Russians living there, it is an invasion. When USA, UK et al invades Iraq it is ......... ? Israel is bloody sitting on and killing people of Occupied Territory and not a blind eye is turned.

    Hypocrites !!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,524
    surbiton said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Poor Sir Paul McCartney, if being married to Heather Mills wasn't bad enough, he's now about to feel the ire of the Cybernats.

    Sir Paul McCartney has become the latest celebrity to call for Scotland to stay part of the UK ahead of the country's historic vote on independence.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/sir-paul-mccartney-backs-lets-stay-together.1409401720

    To be fair, who the **** is he ? Just because he sang Mull of Kintyre ?
    Wings are the band that the Beatles could have been.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Incredible that the LD vote would actually still have potential to sink below 2 depending on who the Tory candidate is. Just don't stand LDs, save the £500 already.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    MrJones said:

    Socrates said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Socrates said:

    Civilians digging trenches in Mariupol before the Russians get there. I guess Russia will be claiming this is a spontaneous uprising should they take the place.

    Oh, this is brilliant. Everything you dismiss as a loony tinfoil Anti-American conspiracy despite manifold evidence, when it's levelled at everyone's favourite democracy supporters, you're quite happy to ascribe to those darstardly russians. Can you not see how farcical this is?

    I've read your post several times and I'm still struggling to understand your middle sentence. I don't think it makes grammatical sense. Are you trying to deny that the sudden rebel resurgence isn't down to Russian soldiers?
    The rebels are winning because the Ukraine army over-extended themselves in their attempt to capture Luhansk and Donetsk. They had most of their strength encircling those two cities and Strelkov - if that's who it was - basically did a Zhukov on them.

    So now his counter attack has got half the Ukraine army surrounded in little pockets and his guys are pushing out to the Donbass borders.

    No doubt Putin is helping them in every way short of Russian tank columns - because pictures of Russian tank columns would be very foolish of him - but the main reason the rebels are winning is Kiev screwed up by being focused on capturing Luhansk and Donetsk.

    imo

    Not tank columns, just artillery columns:

    http://pics.top.rbc.ru/top_pics/uniora/70/1409254602_0270.1599x1200.jpeg
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Socrates said:

    How on Earth was there a European Arrest Warrant for these parents of this kid with a tumour if they hadn't been accused of breaking any law?


    Indeed. There must be a box on the Arrest Warrant paperwork that says "Crime Accused Of:" What was written in it? Was it left blank? How on Earth could a judge have approved it?

    On a personal note I was at a bbq in Casares today and the place was mobbed with Guardia Civil. Passed through two roadblocks. Lots of fuss and disruption considering the parents haven't done anything criminal.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Has the ELBOW been leaked yet ?
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Scotland on Sunday
    Detectives investigate Scottish Rotherham.
    http://imgur.com/a/QRbBv
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Many thanks to Survation for doing a poll in Clacton so quickly.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    dyedwoolie said:

    isam said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    isam said:

    There got to be a catch in this somewhere for ukip...

    Cars wells personal vote per the figures. They would be neck and neck without it (roughly)
    I think you've missed that his personal vote is 34% of 64, not 34%
    Yep, my mistake. However, without it, and assuming us personal vote was overwhelmingly Tory, this would be a bum nipper. Good job Lord didn't get the gig!
    Haha bit desperate?

    If he hadn't defected there wouldn't be an election!!!!

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    GeoffM said:

    Socrates said:

    How on Earth was there a European Arrest Warrant for these parents of this kid with a tumour if they hadn't been accused of breaking any law?


    Indeed. There must be a box on the Arrest Warrant paperwork that says "Crime Accused Of:" What was written in it? Was it left blank? How on Earth could a judge have approved it?

    On a personal note I was at a bbq in Casares today and the place was mobbed with Guardia Civil. Passed through two roadblocks. Lots of fuss and disruption considering the parents haven't done anything criminal.

    Asst. Chief Constable Shead answered that at a press conference earlier today.

    "Neglect"
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    GeoffM said:

    Socrates said:

    How on Earth was there a European Arrest Warrant for these parents of this kid with a tumour if they hadn't been accused of breaking any law?


    Indeed. There must be a box on the Arrest Warrant paperwork that says "Crime Accused Of:" What was written in it? Was it left blank? How on Earth could a judge have approved it?

    On a personal note I was at a bbq in Casares today and the place was mobbed with Guardia Civil. Passed through two roadblocks. Lots of fuss and disruption considering the parents haven't done anything criminal.

    Supposed child neglect was the crime mentioned, but the evidence of this must have been highly flimsy to say the least. There doesn't seem to be any of the basic standards of individual protections here that you'd expect in the British justice system. What was May thinking opting into it?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    kle4 said:

    Incredible that the LD vote would actually still have potential to sink below 2 depending on who the Tory candidate is. Just don't stand LDs, save the £500 already.

    In Newark the LD vote dropped from 20.0% to 2.6%. In Clacton it starts off at 12.9%.
This discussion has been closed.