Civilians digging trenches in Mariupol before the Russians get there. I guess Russia will be claiming this is a spontaneous uprising should they take the place.
Oh, this is brilliant. Everything you dismiss as a loony tinfoil Anti-American conspiracy despite manifold evidence, when it's levelled at everyone's favourite democracy supporters, you're quite happy to ascribe to those darstardly russians. Can you not see how farcical this is?
I've read your post several times and I'm still struggling to understand your middle sentence. I don't think it makes grammatical sense. Are you trying to deny that the sudden rebel resurgence isn't down to Russian soldiers?
The rebels are winning because the Ukraine army over-extended themselves in their attempt to capture Luhansk and Donetsk. They had most of their strength encircling those two cities and Strelkov - if that's who it was - basically did a Zhukov on them.
So now his counter attack has got half the Ukraine army surrounded in little pockets and his guys are pushing out to the Donbass borders.
No doubt Putin is helping them in every way short of Russian tank columns - because pictures of Russian tank columns would be very foolish of him - but the main reason the rebels are winning is Kiev screwed up by being focused on capturing Luhansk and Donetsk.
If the coverage of this gets picked up, we'll have crossed the Rubicon. As soon as the general public at large becomes aware this has happened in more than one place, the "how many cities" question will cause it to explode.
The threat to Cameron isn't Carswell, it is further defections.
The key is whether UKIP can maintain high media profile right through to the GE.
Whatever happens in Clacton, if it is done and dusted in October it will then fade. And far better for Cameron to put out some statement saying Carswell has a huge personal following, good constituency MP, no point wasting money challenging him. That may look bad but it turns it into a short-term story.
The killer for Cameron is more defections in Oct/Nov/Dec and by-elections in Jan/Feb/Mar.
I think any by-election post Christmas and he has no chance at the GE.
Con could refuse to move writs for by-elections but presumably Lab would move them so he has nowhere to go.
Strangely enough, he gave an interview to the Daily Mail reeling of the names of whiskies, he claims he likes. His former boss, ex-Chancellor Norman Lamont, introduced him to the Orkney malt Highland Park (‘I think it was his Budget Day tipple,’ Mr Cameron says), and now he is a fan of a number of island malts.
‘Most of all I love Jura whisky but I also like Lagavulin, Caol Ila, Talisker – almost all of them,’ he says.
If this vote is not even close, I really am struggling to see what the Tory response will be, as the cliches of a close loss will not be applicable. Is there any way for them to win in 2015? The poor leadership ratings of Ed M seem to be the source of the most hope, but Cameron's will possibly face the loss of the Indy vote, probably face losing a seat to UKIP, and was already unable to control his party and focus them effectively - how can he possibly campaign as a strong choice for PM? How can he credibly say to people he is a strong leader, when he has never been great at leading his party, and right now is sitting on top of an explosion of unhelpfulness?
The threat to Cameron isn't Carswell, it is further defections.
The key is whether UKIP can maintain high media profile right through to the GE.
Whatever happens in Clacton, if it is done and dusted in October it will then fade. And far better for Cameron to put out some statement saying Carswell has a huge personal following, good constituency MP, no point wasting money challenging him. That may look bad but it turns it into a short-term story.
The killer for Cameron is more defections in Oct/Nov/Dec and by-elections in Jan/Feb/Mar.
I think any by-election post Christmas and he has no chance at the GE.
Con could refuse to move writs for by-elections but presumably Lab would move them so he has nowhere to go.
Looks like Ukip will get their goals of PM Ed and no referendum..
Better Together don't throw eggs................. re the tynecastle incident,its been reported to the police at st leonards, this is my first post on this site i'm a yes activist one of my colleagues witnessed it today and was working on the stall, i'm totally sickened at what happened, when murphy and bt kick up such a fuss over an egg I want the press to report it, it was on macleod street plenty CCTV, the abuse the guys were getting got steadily worse usual Nazi comments etc. up to kick off then random’s started grabbing the posters and literature and ripped them up and threw them at their faces then spitting at them then one man ran at the table and punched one of the yes guys in the face then kicks the table over, the guy has a cut face a bystander at the table got punched too then a kid stole his mobile phone held a yes poster up and ripped it down the middle whilst looking evily sounds horrendous I really want to get the press involved but the guys involved are too scared if they are identified as these attackers were lunatics.
@Socrates It's the way the law is written, it was issued on the grounds that the parents "might" have been guilty of neglect.
So any EU government can get people arrested across the continent if they claim the people "might" have done something wrong?
Crikey, where have you been since the European Arrest Warrant was introduced? It doesn't need an EU government either. Want someone out of the way for a bit, then bung a dodgy prosecutor in Bulgaria a couple of grand and he can issue a warrant that will see your man banged-up in some Bulgarian clink for potentially years despite the fact that he has never been to Bulgaria or ever committed any sort of criminal offence. Nothing the UK courts can do about it. David Cameron thinks the system is a very good one, why? I don't know.
The threat to Cameron isn't Carswell, it is further defections.
The key is whether UKIP can maintain high media profile right through to the GE.
Whatever happens in Clacton, if it is done and dusted in October it will then fade. And far better for Cameron to put out some statement saying Carswell has a huge personal following, good constituency MP, no point wasting money challenging him. That may look bad but it turns it into a short-term story. .
I don't think that would work, but I do think it has a better chance of making it seem less impactful than the alternative, as I do not think you are right that whatever happens it will fade. Only anoraks like us will get really excited, but a sitting MP for UKIP in 2015 who can also point to the fact that he won a FPTP election already under the UKIP banner? That slashes the portion of UKIPers who might switch back to the Tories out of fear down to the bare minimum (and whether it would ever have been a large number is questionable), as there is direct proof UKIP can marshall enough support to win. Not all places will be as amenable to that as Clacton, but fewer UKipers will even consider voting tactically as Carswell will prove they can do it.
@malcolmg By the position of the other camera man in one of the shots, the police should have no problem finding out if a crime has been committed. And if it has, I hope they throw the book at him.
Essentially Casrwell is a radical who has joined a quintessentially reactionary party: "His powers of persuasion presumably remain undimmed, but his powers of judgment have gone on a long weekend. "
Say that was true but the reactionary part was hacked off with the current political establishment then a radical who was into direct democracy might be in like O'Flynn.
If this vote is not even close, I really am struggling to see what the Tory response will be, as the cliches of a close loss will not be applicable. Is there any way for them to win in 2015? The poor leadership ratings of Ed M seem to be the source of the most hope, but Cameron's will possibly face the loss of the Indy vote, probably face losing a seat to UKIP, and was already unable to control his party and focus them effectively - how can he possibly campaign as a strong choice for PM? How can he credibly say to people he is a strong leader, when he has never been great at leading his party, and right now is sitting on top of an explosion of unhelpfulness?
On the face of it the whole thing is a disaster for Cameron - he looks to have nowhere to go.
However, worth remembering that in 2010 the LDs post Cleggasm lost several percentage points in literally the last 2 or 3 days before the GE.
Cameron will have 7 months post Clacton.
The key will be avoiding UKIP disruption post Christmas and the OFCOM decision re Major Party status. Those will be the two key determinants.
The threat to Cameron isn't Carswell, it is further defections.
The key is whether UKIP can maintain high media profile right through to the GE.
Whatever happens in Clacton, if it is done and dusted in October it will then fade. And far better for Cameron to put out some statement saying Carswell has a huge personal following, good constituency MP, no point wasting money challenging him. That may look bad but it turns it into a short-term story.
The killer for Cameron is more defections in Oct/Nov/Dec and by-elections in Jan/Feb/Mar.
I think any by-election post Christmas and he has no chance at the GE.
Con could refuse to move writs for by-elections but presumably Lab would move them so he has nowhere to go.
I don't think they have to worry about MPs defecting.
The danger is a further move among Conservative activists/voters to UKIP, and a demoralisation of the rump.
And of course the boost to UKIP activist/supporter morale.
How on Earth was there a European Arrest Warrant for these parents of this kid with a tumour if they hadn't been accused of breaking any law?
By definition since a warrant has been issued they have been accused of breaking the law - neglect. Since you are not guilty until proven innocent then everyone who is arrested is arrested because they 'might' have done something. And 'governments' do not issue warrants - the police do. The warrant is no different to if these people were still at large in the UK, it just also applies in Europe. Fortunately for the dangerously ill child.
A member of the BNP campaigning to save the Union kicked a pregnant Yes activist in the stomach today in Glasgow. Just FYI.
It will probably not make the BBC, unlike Eggman.
Godsdamned BNP - if they had any brains, they'd realise that if they want something to occur, they should campaign for the exact opposite to happen, as everyone hates them.
The threat to Cameron isn't Carswell, it is further defections.
The key is whether UKIP can maintain high media profile right through to the GE.
Whatever happens in Clacton, if it is done and dusted in October it will then fade. And far better for Cameron to put out some statement saying Carswell has a huge personal following, good constituency MP, no point wasting money challenging him. That may look bad but it turns it into a short-term story. .
I don't think that would work, but I do think it has a better chance of making it seem less impactful than the alternative, as I do not think you are right that whatever happens it will fade. Only anoraks like us will get really excited, but a sitting MP for UKIP in 2015 who can also point to the fact that he won a FPTP election already under the UKIP banner? That slashes the portion of UKIPers who might switch back to the Tories out of fear down to the bare minimum (and whether it would ever have been a large number is questionable), as there is direct proof UKIP can marshall enough support to win. Not all places will be as amenable to that as Clacton, but fewer UKipers will even consider voting tactically as Carswell will prove they can do it.
A member of the BNP campaigning to save the Union kicked a pregnant Yes activist in the stomach today in Glasgow. Just FYI.
It will probably not make the BBC, unlike Eggman.
Godsdamned BNP - if they had any brains, they'd realise that if they want something to occur, they should campaign for the exact opposite to happen, as everyone hates them.
Their pals in NO campaign like them , Better Together
@Socrates It's the way the law is written, it was issued on the grounds that the parents "might" have been guilty of neglect.
So any EU government can get people arrested across the continent if they claim the people "might" have done something wrong?
Crikey, where have you been since the European Arrest Warrant was introduced? It doesn't need an EU government either. Want someone out of the way for a bit, then bung a dodgy prosecutor in Bulgaria a couple of grand and he can issue a warrant that will see your man banged-up in some Bulgarian clink for potentially years despite the fact that he has never been to Bulgaria or ever committed any sort of criminal offence. Nothing the UK courts can do about it. David Cameron thinks the system is a very good one, why? I don't know.
If the coverage of this gets picked up, we'll have crossed the Rubicon. As soon as the general public at large becomes aware this has happened in more than one place, the "how many cities" question will cause it to explode.
I think everyone knows that Rotherham was not an isolated case, but we need someone bold who is willing to speak truth to power to lead the investigation.
Prof Jay needs to widen her role, and would deserve the grateful thanks of a nation were she to expose the problem nationally to the same extent.
The question surely now becomes, re further defections:-
Not "If", but "How many?"
And, less significantly, if all/almost all the defections are from the Tories, will that have any impact on UKIP's cross party anti-establishment appeal to its base, or will the increased profile and sheer momentum, and the euphoria of forcing establishment figures to come to their side, negate any concern that they might be portrayed as, (as Tories wish were the case) just another bunch of (slightly more ok) Tories?
Civilians digging trenches in Mariupol before the Russians get there. I guess Russia will be claiming this is a spontaneous uprising should they take the place.
Oh, this is brilliant. Everything you dismiss as a loony tinfoil Anti-American conspiracy despite manifold evidence, when it's levelled at everyone's favourite democracy supporters, you're quite happy to ascribe to those darstardly russians. Can you not see how farcical this is?
I've read your post several times and I'm still struggling to understand your middle sentence. I don't think it makes grammatical sense. Are you trying to deny that the sudden rebel resurgence isn't down to Russian soldiers?
The rebels are winning because the Ukraine army over-extended themselves in their attempt to capture Luhansk and Donetsk. They had most of their strength encircling those two cities and Strelkov - if that's who it was - basically did a Zhukov on them.
So now his counter attack has got half the Ukraine army surrounded in little pockets and his guys are pushing out to the Donbass borders.
No doubt Putin is helping them in every way short of Russian tank columns - because pictures of Russian tank columns would be very foolish of him - but the main reason the rebels are winning is Kiev screwed up by being focused on capturing Luhansk and Donetsk.
quite possible since the counter attack started as the rebels have advanced a long way from the border but the state dept have been crying wolf over tank columns for months - hence their problem now
This is a poll from Survation. Someone remind us how accurate they have proved to be in the past? Looks like they surveyed the UKIP association membership excluding the duly selected UKIP candidate!
If the coverage of this gets picked up, we'll have crossed the Rubicon. As soon as the general public at large becomes aware this has happened in more than one place, the "how many cities" question will cause it to explode.
I think everyone knows that Rotherham was not an isolated case, but we need someone bold who is willing to speak truth to power to lead the investigation.
Prof Jay needs to widen her role, and would deserve the grateful thanks of a nation were she to expose the problem nationally to the same extent.
I think everyone political does, but the vast bulk of the population are not that political. They haven't realised that this is a nationwide thing in dozens of places. Thus it's not about one town having failing institutions - it's about a deep moral decay. When that reality sets in, the public mood will be explosive. That's why the political-media elite have covered it up for so long.
@malcolmg Is there a link to an account of this story from a witness?
Yes apparently they said God is the Creator and Supreme Being. However they reject the Trinity doctrine, which they consider unscriptural. Watchtower anyone want a Watchtower
This is a poll from Survation. Someone remind us how accurate they have proved to be in the past? Looks like they surveyed the UKIP association membership excluding the duly selected UKIP candidate!
This is a poll from Survation. Someone remind us how accurate they have proved to be in the past? Looks like they surveyed the UKIP association membership excluding the duly selected UKIP candidate!
Ashcroft's by-election poll was much closer than Survation's for Newark, though with a 44% lead I'm guessing the actual figures are academic.
Peter Kellner in the Sunday Times concludes with this
Let’s assume that Farage is behaving rationally. Logic suggests why he wants Labour to win. It is that his real ambition is to reshape Britain’s political Right. He wants the Tories to lose, tear themselves apart as the different wings blame each other for defeat, and then split over the best way forward. Farage would be waiting in the wings, offering to join forces with Conservative eurosceptics – so that, before long, he could take them over.
The point is not that the Conservative drama is bound play out like this, but that Farage thinks it might. If that is his dream, it is a more attractive prospect than a Cameron victory, a referendum in 2017 and (as YouGov polls suggest) a likely vote to stay in the EU. Were that to happen, Farage and Ukip would be finished.
That’s the logic; but it is not just logic. Over the years I have discussed Ukip’s prospects with a number of the party’s leading lights. I have found a simmering tension between those whose main aim is an early vote on Europe, and those who are driven more by Ukip’s long-term prospects as a political force. Either Farage is stupid – and I don’t believe he is – or he sits firmly with those who would sacrifice a referendum for a shot at lasting glory.
This is a poll from Survation. Someone remind us how accurate they have proved to be in the past? Looks like they surveyed the UKIP association membership excluding the duly selected UKIP candidate!
Got Newark within the MOE for Con and UKIP
I seem to remember that was a week after Lord Ashcroft's poll. Their 1st poll was nonsense was it not?
How on Earth was there a European Arrest Warrant for these parents of this kid with a tumour if they hadn't been accused of breaking any law?
By definition since a warrant has been issued they have been accused of breaking the law - neglect. Since you are not guilty until proven innocent then everyone who is arrested is arrested because they 'might' have done something. And 'governments' do not issue warrants - the police do. The warrant is no different to if these people were still at large in the UK, it just also applies in Europe. Fortunately for the dangerously ill child.
@Socrates It's the way the law is written, it was issued on the grounds that the parents "might" have been guilty of neglect.
So any EU government can get people arrested across the continent if they claim the people "might" have done something wrong?
That is frightening.
It's typical of the way in which the justice system both here and abroad is getting its priorities wrong.
Hampshire plod will be absolutely delighted with this result tonight.
One of the great advantages to the UK of the EU Arrest Warrant is that every now and then dozens of officers get to pack their buckets'n'spades for a taxpayer funded holiday in the sun.
This "investigation"team will suddenly get as crowded as the legion of BBC World Cup coverage hangers-on now that the "suspects" have been found near a beach.
This is a poll from Survation. Someone remind us how accurate they have proved to be in the past? Looks like they surveyed the UKIP association membership excluding the duly selected UKIP candidate!
Maybe it won't be quite so large a win, but the ground seems very ripe for a UKIP win of some sort. The expectation is so high that, more than previous by-elections, it actually would be dispiriting, to some extent, for UKIP if they were to lose, but the Tories are flailing right now, it is hard to see them putting up serious opposition even if they try. Labour might sneak it, but their chances of an outright majority are improved even if they don't. And no-one will care about who the candidate for 2015 was going to be, given the chance for the UKIP there already would have been, Carswell's personal vote, Tories who hate Cameron, Labour and LDs eager to see the Tories bruised - what odds all these forces arrayed against Cameron's faction in a seat already primed for a UKIP surge will let this opportunity slip because of small details?
Lame duck PM until 2015? Although if so, what to call him if he loses this one and the Indy and doesn't resign?
This is a poll from Survation. Someone remind us how accurate they have proved to be in the past? Looks like they surveyed the UKIP association membership excluding the duly selected UKIP candidate!
Got Newark within the MOE for Con and UKIP
I seem to remember that was a week after Lord Ashcroft's poll. Their 1st poll was nonsense was it not?
A member of the BNP campaigning to save the Union kicked a pregnant Yes activist in the stomach today in Glasgow. Just FYI.
It will probably not make the BBC, unlike Eggman.
The BNP are not part of the better together campaign. I suspect there is no shortage of people the BNP would like to kick. I am a bit surprised about the nastiness that Scots seem to have for their fellow Scots. I hope it is not sectarian based.
If the coverage of this gets picked up, we'll have crossed the Rubicon. As soon as the general public at large becomes aware this has happened in more than one place, the "how many cities" question will cause it to explode.
I think everyone knows that Rotherham was not an isolated case, but we need someone bold who is willing to speak truth to power to lead the investigation.
Prof Jay needs to widen her role, and would deserve the grateful thanks of a nation were she to expose the problem nationally to the same extent.
I Can she investigate the Westminster paedophile ring too whilst she's at it? May as well get the taxpayer's money's worth.
How on Earth was there a European Arrest Warrant for these parents of this kid with a tumour if they hadn't been accused of breaking any law?
By definition since a warrant has been issued they have been accused of breaking the law - neglect. Since you are not guilty until proven innocent then everyone who is arrested is arrested because they 'might' have done something. And 'governments' do not issue warrants - the police do. The warrant is no different to if these people were still at large in the UK, it just also applies in Europe. Fortunately for the dangerously ill child.
Yes, but there's a reasonable standard of evidence needed to arrest people in this country - and an independent police complaints commission if they abuse it. What protections do we have from police forces in dodgy Eastern European nations.
If the coverage of this gets picked up, we'll have crossed the Rubicon. As soon as the general public at large becomes aware this has happened in more than one place, the "how many cities" question will cause it to explode.
I think everyone knows that Rotherham was not an isolated case, but we need someone bold who is willing to speak truth to power to lead the investigation.
Prof Jay needs to widen her role, and would deserve the grateful thanks of a nation were she to expose the problem nationally to the same extent.
I think everyone political does, but the vast bulk of the population are not that political. They haven't realised that this is a nationwide thing in dozens of places. Thus it's not about one town having failing institutions - it's about a deep moral decay. When that reality sets in, the public mood will be explosive. That's why the political-media elite have covered it up for so long.
I suspect many candidates will be trying to imply they are come 2015. Not all their seats will be as amendable to a possible UKIP win so even if they are so inclined they won't want to risk defection, but if UKIPers do not feel they can back the local Tory they could let in Labour, so we'll probably see dozens of MPs all but saying they will do whatever UKIP want, just please don't campaign hard in my constituency!
Peter Kellner in the Sunday Times concludes with this
Let’s assume that Farage is behaving rationally. Logic suggests why he wants Labour to win. It is that his real ambition is to reshape Britain’s political Right. He wants the Tories to lose, tear themselves apart as the different wings blame each other for defeat, and then split over the best way forward. Farage would be waiting in the wings, offering to join forces with Conservative eurosceptics – so that, before long, he could take them over.
The point is not that the Conservative drama is bound play out like this, but that Farage thinks it might. If that is his dream, it is a more attractive prospect than a Cameron victory, a referendum in 2017 and (as YouGov polls suggest) a likely vote to stay in the EU. Were that to happen, Farage and Ukip would be finished.
That’s the logic; but it is not just logic. Over the years I have discussed Ukip’s prospects with a number of the party’s leading lights. I have found a simmering tension between those whose main aim is an early vote on Europe, and those who are driven more by Ukip’s long-term prospects as a political force. Either Farage is stupid – and I don’t believe he is – or he sits firmly with those who would sacrifice a referendum for a shot at lasting glory.
Only problem I can see is that the "split" will cause such damage that Farage will either be in a retirement home, or more likely dead, before we get some sort of right wing government out of the ruins.
And in the meantime it could be 20-30 years of never ending socialism, only occsionally tempered by the Lib-Dems perhaps...
I will be fascinated to learn the basis upon which Hampshire police think they can proceed against Ashya's parents. We might not approve of their religious beliefs but he was not in hospital as a result of a court order so his parents had legal custody and would be perfectly entitled to take him wherever they choose. There seems to be no evidence of him being neglected.
1) Zac Goldsmith will defect to UKIP. He told The Sunday Times he was in tune with many of Ukip’s policies and if the party “entirely embraced the environmental agenda I might be tempted”.
2) Three more MPs will do a Carswell unless Cameron gets tougher with Brussels
3) Another Tory will defect but only after December when it will not be necessary to hold a by-election
4) Tory MPs are about to ignore Dave and form their own alliances/non-aggression pacts with UKIP
One interesting value is the decline in the Labour vote - which should hold steady as Lib Dems switch to Labour countering Labour to UKIP switchers. Rotherham is a long way from Clacton but . . .
1) Zac Goldsmith will defect to UKIP. He told The Sunday Times he was in tune with many of Ukip’s policies and if the party “entirely embraced the environmental agenda I might be tempted”.
2) Three more MPs will do a Carswell unless Cameron gets tougher with Brussels
3) Another Tory will defect but only after December when it will not be necessary to hold a by-election
4) Tory MPs are about to ignore Dave and form their own alliances/non-aggression pacts with UKIP
If UKIP embraced Zac's "green agenda" they would lose a great deal of support from the "denier" wing.
We don’t have dates, sample size, questions and so on yet but prima facie it’s pretty unambiguous: Carswell will romp home with ease. If it does happen so convincingly expect a big impact in the national polls too from the publicity and the impact of people seeing a UKIP vote can return a UKIP MP (not to mention whatever temptations it would throw to any other potential Conservative defectors…)
How on Earth was there a European Arrest Warrant for these parents of this kid with a tumour if they hadn't been accused of breaking any law?
By definition since a warrant has been issued they have been accused of breaking the law - neglect. Since you are not guilty until proven innocent then everyone who is arrested is arrested because they 'might' have done something. And 'governments' do not issue warrants - the police do. The warrant is no different to if these people were still at large in the UK, it just also applies in Europe. Fortunately for the dangerously ill child.
Yes, but there's a reasonable standard of evidence needed to arrest people in this country - and an independent police complaints commission if they abuse it. What protections do we have from police forces in dodgy Eastern European nations.
"What protections do we have from police forces in dodgy Eastern European nations"
None.
That is what the fuss has been about. I am amazed that you only now seem to be waking up to this. What is more the UK had an automatic opt out this year. However Cameron thinks the EU Arrest warrant such a spiffing idea, despite its total lack of protections for Her Majesty's subjects, that he has decided we must opt back in.
1) Zac Goldsmith will defect to UKIP. He told The Sunday Times he was in tune with many of Ukip’s policies and if the party “entirely embraced the environmental agenda I might be tempted”.
2) Three more MPs will do a Carswell unless Cameron gets tougher with Brussels
3) Another Tory will defect but only after December when it will not be necessary to hold a by-election
4) Tory MPs are about to ignore Dave and form their own alliances/non-aggression pacts with UKIP
Ooh ukip are 100/1 in Richmond... But I think they'll lose even w zac
Peter Kellner in the Sunday Times concludes with this
Let’s assume that Farage is behaving rationally. Logic suggests why he wants Labour to win. It is that his real ambition is to reshape Britain’s political Right. He wants the Tories to lose, tear themselves apart as the different wings blame each other for defeat, and then split over the best way forward. Farage would be waiting in the wings, offering to join forces with Conservative eurosceptics – so that, before long, he could take them over.
The point is not that the Conservative drama is bound play out like this, but that Farage thinks it might. If that is his dream, it is a more attractive prospect than a Cameron victory, a referendum in 2017 and (as YouGov polls suggest) a likely vote to stay in the EU. Were that to happen, Farage and Ukip would be finished.
That’s the logic; but it is not just logic. Over the years I have discussed Ukip’s prospects with a number of the party’s leading lights. I have found a simmering tension between those whose main aim is an early vote on Europe, and those who are driven more by Ukip’s long-term prospects as a political force. Either Farage is stupid – and I don’t believe he is – or he sits firmly with those who would sacrifice a referendum for a shot at lasting glory.
This seems quite plausible, indeed I would say quite likely. Monomania dissolving into megalomania. As a lifelong Tory voter I take a dim view of someone wanting to destroy the Tory party and facilitating a Labour victory as a means to this end. Clearly the Left in British politics has twice the brainpower of the Right.
Mike's prediction the other week that he will live out his day's under a Labour government seem more realistic to me now. Wonder if he had an inkling the Right was going to implode on itself?
Since UKIP didn't stand in Clacton in 2010, if Carswell for example polls 25,000 votes in the general election, it would add nearly 0.1% to UKIP's national share from just a single constituency.
Not a very impressive statistic? It might be if ten similar seats cumulatively add 1% to UKIP's national share.
Was there child sex grooming going on before these revelations? If so, who was doing it before the Muslims cornered the market?
I pointed out the other day that these gangs were using well established ways that pimps use all over the world to recruit vulnerable young girls into prostitution.
The difference is that the authorities (police and social workers in particular) seem to not be interested in stopping these particular gangs, according to Prof Jay's report, for reasons that are potentially explosive.
1) Zac Goldsmith will defect to UKIP. He told The Sunday Times he was in tune with many of Ukip’s policies and if the party “entirely embraced the environmental agenda I might be tempted”.
2) Three more MPs will do a Carswell unless Cameron gets tougher with Brussels
3) Another Tory will defect but only after December when it will not be necessary to hold a by-election
4) Tory MPs are about to ignore Dave and form their own alliances/non-aggression pacts with UKIP
2) How much tougher can he get without switching to promising he will campaign to No regardless of whether his negotiation for repatriation of powers goes, making the repatriation tactic pointless? (Granted it was pointless already because for one it would not work, and for two he was unlikely to be PM anyway).
3)A bit cowardly, but smart. I wonder what pretext they will give for why they had not made up their mind to defect at the same time as Carswell, or before, what it was about the change in year that made them need to switch where before they didn't.
4) It's the sensible thing for them to do. Are UKIP still going to not stand in seats of MPs they find suitably Eurosceptic, or are they going for a full complement of candidates? If they think they might actually win some MPs (and at least 2 seems like a possible outcome, though not assured of course), and with possibly more outright defections, might they not declare that that time has passed, and if someone wants UKIPs backing or support, they have to take the Carswell plunge.
If UKIP embraced Zac's "green agenda" they would lose a great deal of support from the "denier" wing.
Quite likely - however you demean people who are sceptic about global warming, cooling (August has been the coldest August in the UK for many years) because they suspect the methodology of the warming watermelons.
However we can discuss climate change at a different point of spacetime.
Peter Kellner in the Sunday Times concludes with this
Let’s assume that Farage is behaving rationally. Logic suggests why he wants Labour to win. It is that his real ambition is to reshape Britain’s political Right. He wants the Tories to lose, tear themselves apart as the different wings blame each other for defeat, and then split over the best way forward. Farage would be waiting in the wings, offering to join forces with Conservative eurosceptics – so that, before long, he could take them over.
The point is not that the Conservative drama is bound play out like this, but that Farage thinks it might. If that is his dream, it is a more attractive prospect than a Cameron victory, a referendum in 2017 and (as YouGov polls suggest) a likely vote to stay in the EU. Were that to happen, Farage and Ukip would be finished.
That’s the logic; but it is not just logic. Over the years I have discussed Ukip’s prospects with a number of the party’s leading lights. I have found a simmering tension between those whose main aim is an early vote on Europe, and those who are driven more by Ukip’s long-term prospects as a political force. Either Farage is stupid – and I don’t believe he is – or he sits firmly with those who would sacrifice a referendum for a shot at lasting glory.
This seems quite plausible, indeed I would say quite likely. Monomania dissolving into megalomania. As a lifelong Tory voter I take a dim view of someone wanting to destroy the Tory party and facilitating a Labour victory as a means to this end. Clearly the Left in British politics has twice the brainpower of the Right.
Well, the "left" did it all in the early 80's didn't they? I bet in 1981 Roy and Shirl had similar views to Farage now.
Split the right. Destroy the Labour party. There will be a "realignment" that will bring the SDP to power.
Except it didn't happen. All that happened is that Maggie kept winning landslides and the Tories had 18 years of uninterrupted government because the left wing vote was divided.
I have no doubt the same will probably happen again, this time to the Right...
1) Zac Goldsmith will defect to UKIP. He told The Sunday Times he was in tune with many of Ukip’s policies and if the party “entirely embraced the environmental agenda I might be tempted”.
2) Three more MPs will do a Carswell unless Cameron gets tougher with Brussels
3) Another Tory will defect but only after December when it will not be necessary to hold a by-election
4) Tory MPs are about to ignore Dave and form their own alliances/non-aggression pacts with UKIP
Even if there's no more defections to UKIP, it's starting to look like the Tories are going to descend into chaos at the election with huge numbers of Tory MPs saying they want out of Europe altogether.
Reminiscent of the 1997 election with so many Tories saying that they were deadset against the Euro, going against the official party line. Even though most of the public also disagreed with the Euro, it still damaged the Tories because of the sense of "if they're going to be spending all their time fighting with eachother, how are they going to have to the time to run the country properly?"
Mike's prediction the other week that he will live out his day's under a Labour government seem more realistic to me now. Wonder if he had an inkling the Right was going to implode on itself?
It's been a slow burn implosion for a while. I even thought they seemed to have gotten a grip on things this year, even if I didn't think it enough to avoid a defeat in 2015 given the scale of the issues they faced, but like many things riven with internal weaknesses, despite a coat of polish eventually even slight pressures have caused the collapse of the whole structure.
OK, that's overdramatic, but win or lose in Clacton, how can the Tories combat the threat of UKIP and defeat Labour at the same time? What is it that will overcome that? Fear of Ed M is not pulling the voters back to them even if they see Ed M as inadequate. Labour are not imploding alongside them. The party is still deeply split on Europe and other issues, so Cameron cannot present a firm vision for a lot of important issues, weakening his campaigning focus and power.
In what way can the Tories make themselves strong enough to overcome even a weakened Labour at this point? I cannot see it.
1) Zac Goldsmith will defect to UKIP. He told The Sunday Times he was in tune with many of Ukip’s policies and if the party “entirely embraced the environmental agenda I might be tempted”.
2) Three more MPs will do a Carswell unless Cameron gets tougher with Brussels
3) Another Tory will defect but only after December when it will not be necessary to hold a by-election
4) Tory MPs are about to ignore Dave and form their own alliances/non-aggression pacts with UKIP
Even if there's no more defections to UKIP, it's starting to look like the Tories are going to descend into chaos at the election with huge numbers of Tory MPs saying they want out of Europe altogether. Reminiscent of the 1997 election with so many Tories saying that they were deadset against the Euro, going against the official party line. Even though most of the public also disagreed with the Euro, it still damaged the Tories because of the sense of "if they're going to be spending all their time fighting with eachother, how are they going to have to the time to run the country properly?"
Indeed. Who with half a brain would vote for this rabble?
Anybody interested in an effective government will have to vote Labour to get these rabid, suicidal right wingers out.
The weird thing is though, 1997 was a dead loss from September 1992, where-as 2015 was winnable. But one term in government was enough for the Tories to implode. Quite amazing really.
Peter Kellner in the Sunday Times concludes with this
Let’s assume that Farage is behaving rationally. Logic suggests why he wants Labour to win. It is that his real ambition is to reshape Britain’s political Right. He wants the Tories to lose, tear themselves apart as the different wings blame each other for defeat, and then split over the best way forward. Farage would be waiting in the wings, offering to join forces with Conservative eurosceptics – so that, before long, he could take them over.
The point is not that the Conservative drama is bound play out like this, but that Farage thinks it might. If that is his dream, it is a more attractive prospect than a Cameron victory, a referendum in 2017 and (as YouGov polls suggest) a likely vote to stay in the EU. Were that to happen, Farage and Ukip would be finished.
That’s the logic; but it is not just logic. Over the years I have discussed Ukip’s prospects with a number of the party’s leading lights. I have found a simmering tension between those whose main aim is an early vote on Europe, and those who are driven more by Ukip’s long-term prospects as a political force. Either Farage is stupid – and I don’t believe he is – or he sits firmly with those who would sacrifice a referendum for a shot at lasting glory.
This seems quite plausible, indeed I would say quite likely. Monomania dissolving into megalomania. As a lifelong Tory voter I take a dim view of someone wanting to destroy the Tory party and facilitating a Labour victory as a means to this end. Clearly the Left in British politics has twice the brainpower of the Right.
Well, the "left" did it all in the early 80's didn't they? I bet in 1981 Roy and Shirl had similar views to Farage now.
Split the right. Destroy the Labour party. There will be a "realignment" that will bring the SDP to power.
Except it didn't happen. All that happened is that Maggie kept winning landslides and the Tories had 18 years of uninterrupted government because the left wing vote was divided.
I have no doubt the same will probably happen again, this time to the Right...
Have you ever considered that few voters think in terms of left and right and split this and realign that? Maybe quite a lot of voters might be attracted to a party that didn't think in those terms either. Perhaps a party that actually and simply listened to what ordinary people were worried about might actually gain considerable traction.
This thinking has informed a lot of why I've thought Labour would win in 2015 ever since the 2010 GE (though the Tories good numbers for the first couple of years gave me some doubt), though I didn't buy into the idea it would be a generation out of power for the Tories as a result. It isn't down to austerity really, as King's thinking ran, but it's looking like a solid bet now. I only wish I had placed a bet on it, curse my indecisiveness.
@Hurst lama Not exactly child bride, but you get the picture that it didn't start with the Muslims? It always went on at the interface of power and poverty
Eliza Armstrong Case
In 1885, William Stead (1849-1912), editor of the Pall Mall Gazette, brought this whole issue front & center in a series of articles entitled The Maiden Tribute of Modern Babylon during the Victorian Era. He was prosecuted and imprisoned for kidnapping after he published a series of articles proving he could buy a 13 year old chimney sweep’s daughter for £5 by her own mother. His conviction was based on his failure to get “permission” to purchase the girl. Bramwell Booth of the Salvation Army helped Stead purchase the girl. She was purchased by former prostitute Rebecca Jarrett and brought to a brothel lightly-drugged & placed under the care of the Salvation Army and sent to France.
Mike's prediction the other week that he will live out his day's under a Labour government seem more realistic to me now. Wonder if he had an inkling the Right was going to implode on itself?
It's been a slow burn implosion for a while. I even thought they seemed to have gotten a grip on things this year, even if I didn't think it enough to avoid a defeat in 2015 given the scale of the issues they faced, but like many things riven with internal weaknesses, despite a coat of polish eventually even slight pressures have caused the collapse of the whole structure.
OK, that's overdramatic, but win or lose in Clacton, how can the Tories combat the threat of UKIP and defeat Labour at the same time? What is it that will overcome that? Fear of Ed M is not pulling the voters back to them even if they see Ed M as inadequate. Labour are not imploding alongside them. The party is still deeply split on Europe and other issues, so Cameron cannot present a firm vision for a lot of important issues, weakening his campaigning focus and power.
In what way can the Tories make themselves strong enough to overcome even a weakened Labour at this point? I cannot see it.
I think the game's pretty much up for the Tories in 2015 now.
Comments
I'm disappointed not to have heard more from Sir Cliff on the special place Scotland occupies in his heart.
Dave is supposed to be making an announcement on "plugging gaps in our armour" tomorrow.
Perhaps someone can ask him then?
The key is whether UKIP can maintain high media profile right through to the GE.
Whatever happens in Clacton, if it is done and dusted in October it will then fade. And far better for Cameron to put out some statement saying Carswell has a huge personal following, good constituency MP, no point wasting money challenging him. That may look bad but it turns it into a short-term story.
The killer for Cameron is more defections in Oct/Nov/Dec and by-elections in Jan/Feb/Mar.
I think any by-election post Christmas and he has no chance at the GE.
Con could refuse to move writs for by-elections but presumably Lab would move them so he has nowhere to go.
His former boss, ex-Chancellor Norman Lamont, introduced him to the Orkney malt Highland Park (‘I think it was his Budget Day tipple,’ Mr Cameron says), and now he is a fan of a number of island malts.
‘Most of all I love Jura whisky but I also like Lagavulin, Caol Ila, Talisker – almost all of them,’ he says.
‘I’ll willingly try anything.’
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2738215/Of-whisky-seals-wild-swims-fate-Scotland-deeply-personal-David-William-Donald-Cameron.html
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwSitiXIgAABdwY.jpg:large
The case is well made here (note, this book is not authored by Alan Partridge!):
http://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/0571281974/ref=oh_aui_detailpage_o02_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwT_FvGIMAATYIo.jpg
re the tynecastle incident,its been reported to the police at st leonards, this is my first post on this site i'm a yes activist one of my colleagues witnessed it today and was working on the stall, i'm totally sickened at what happened, when murphy and bt kick up such a fuss over an egg I want the press to report it, it was on macleod street plenty CCTV, the abuse the guys were getting got steadily worse usual Nazi comments etc. up to kick off then random’s started grabbing the posters and literature and ripped them up and threw them at their faces then spitting at them then one man ran at the table and punched one of the yes guys in the face then kicks the table over, the guy has a cut face a bystander at the table got punched too then a kid stole his mobile phone held a yes poster up and ripped it down the middle whilst looking evily sounds horrendous I really want to get the press involved but the guys involved are too scared if they are identified as these attackers were lunatics.
Not "If", but "How many?"
It’s all over twitter, but:
A member of the BNP campaigning to save the Union kicked a pregnant Yes activist in the stomach today in Glasgow. Just FYI.
It will probably not make the BBC, unlike Eggman.
By the position of the other camera man in one of the shots, the police should have no problem finding out if a crime has been committed.
And if it has, I hope they throw the book at him.
However, worth remembering that in 2010 the LDs post Cleggasm lost several percentage points in literally the last 2 or 3 days before the GE.
Cameron will have 7 months post Clacton.
The key will be avoiding UKIP disruption post Christmas and the OFCOM decision re Major Party status. Those will be the two key determinants.
The danger is a further move among Conservative activists/voters to UKIP, and a demoralisation of the rump.
And of course the boost to UKIP activist/supporter morale.
And 'governments' do not issue warrants - the police do. The warrant is no different to if these people were still at large in the UK, it just also applies in Europe. Fortunately for the dangerously ill child.
The Jehovas Witnesses
I bet they are dreading the knock at the door
Gets Coat
Prof Jay needs to widen her role, and would deserve the grateful thanks of a nation were she to expose the problem nationally to the same extent.
Is there a link to an account of this story from a witness? The four pictures don't give much clarity.
Scotland is split after this nasty dragged out hate fest of a campaign.
ugh.
Con 32, Lab 36, LD 7, UKIP 16
Let’s assume that Farage is behaving rationally. Logic suggests why he wants Labour to win. It is that his real ambition is to reshape Britain’s political Right. He wants the Tories to lose, tear themselves apart as the different wings blame each other for defeat, and then split over the best way forward. Farage would be waiting in the wings, offering to join forces with Conservative eurosceptics – so that, before long, he could take them over.
The point is not that the Conservative drama is bound play out like this, but that Farage thinks it might. If that is his dream, it is a more attractive prospect than a Cameron victory, a referendum in 2017 and (as YouGov polls suggest) a likely vote to stay in the EU. Were that to happen, Farage and Ukip would be finished.
That’s the logic; but it is not just logic. Over the years I have discussed Ukip’s prospects with a number of the party’s leading lights. I have found a simmering tension between those whose main aim is an early vote on Europe, and those who are driven more by Ukip’s long-term prospects as a political force. Either Farage is stupid – and I don’t believe he is – or he sits firmly with those who would sacrifice a referendum for a shot at lasting glory.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2737458/Missing-Ashya-King-taken-parents-Southampton-General-Hospital.html
One of the great advantages to the UK of the EU Arrest Warrant is that every now and then dozens of officers get to pack their buckets'n'spades for a taxpayer funded holiday in the sun.
This "investigation"team will suddenly get as crowded as the legion of BBC World Cup coverage hangers-on now that the "suspects" have been found near a beach.
Lame duck PM until 2015? Although if so, what to call him if he loses this one and the Indy and doesn't resign?
EICIPM
I am a bit surprised about the nastiness that Scots seem to have for their fellow Scots. I hope it is not sectarian based.
Can she investigate the Westminster paedophile ring too whilst she's at it? May as well get the taxpayer's money's worth.
Or at least PB kippers
If Carswell wins by less than 40% this will be declared bad for ukip by Mike and other PB kipperknockers!!!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/3602854.stm
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2237170/Why-Amsterdams-legal-brothels-lesson-Britain-telling-truth-sex-gangs-race.html
http://www.matthewjgoodwin.com/2014/05/an-mp-and-ukip-database.html
And in the meantime it could be 20-30 years of never ending socialism, only occsionally tempered by the Lib-Dems perhaps...
If so, who was doing it before the Muslims cornered the market?
BBC2 doing a TOTP2 show.
Love Cats by the Cure is such a clever pop song. No-one seems capable of writing stuff like that these days.
1) Zac Goldsmith will defect to UKIP. He told The Sunday Times he was in tune with many of Ukip’s policies and if the party “entirely embraced the environmental agenda I might be tempted”.
2) Three more MPs will do a Carswell unless Cameron gets tougher with Brussels
3) Another Tory will defect but only after December when it will not be necessary to hold a by-election
4) Tory MPs are about to ignore Dave and form their own alliances/non-aggression pacts with UKIP
All the voters?
We don’t have dates, sample size, questions and so on yet but prima facie it’s pretty unambiguous: Carswell will romp home with ease. If it does happen so convincingly expect a big impact in the national polls too from the publicity and the impact of people seeing a UKIP vote can return a UKIP MP (not to mention whatever temptations it would throw to any other potential Conservative defectors…)
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8950
None.
That is what the fuss has been about. I am amazed that you only now seem to be waking up to this. What is more the UK had an automatic opt out this year. However Cameron thinks the EU Arrest warrant such a spiffing idea, despite its total lack of protections for Her Majesty's subjects, that he has decided we must opt back in.
wikipedia.org/wiki/Aisha
As a lifelong Tory voter I take a dim view of someone wanting to destroy the Tory party and facilitating a Labour victory as a means to this end. Clearly the Left in British politics has twice the brainpower of the Right.
Not a very impressive statistic? It might be if ten similar seats cumulatively add 1% to UKIP's national share.
http://www.mmp.org/node/13
Most prostitutes start while underage:
http://www.mmp.org/node/23
The difference is that the authorities (police and social workers in particular) seem to not be interested in stopping these particular gangs, according to Prof Jay's report, for reasons that are potentially explosive.
3)A bit cowardly, but smart. I wonder what pretext they will give for why they had not made up their mind to defect at the same time as Carswell, or before, what it was about the change in year that made them need to switch where before they didn't.
4) It's the sensible thing for them to do. Are UKIP still going to not stand in seats of MPs they find suitably Eurosceptic, or are they going for a full complement of candidates? If they think they might actually win some MPs (and at least 2 seems like a possible outcome, though not assured of course), and with possibly more outright defections, might they not declare that that time has passed, and if someone wants UKIPs backing or support, they have to take the Carswell plunge.
What was the average age of the brides for his peers?
Child brides were pretty common here at one time?
Quite likely - however you demean people who are sceptic about global warming, cooling (August has been the coldest August in the UK for many years) because they suspect the methodology of the warming watermelons.
However we can discuss climate change at a different point of spacetime.
Split the right. Destroy the Labour party. There will be a "realignment" that will bring the SDP to power.
Except it didn't happen. All that happened is that Maggie kept winning landslides and the Tories had 18 years of uninterrupted government because the left wing vote was divided.
I have no doubt the same will probably happen again, this time to the Right...
"As a lifelong Tory voter ... Clearly the Left in British politics has twice the brainpower of the Right".
Your words, not mine. Do you, perhaps, want to reflect on them for a bit?
Reminiscent of the 1997 election with so many Tories saying that they were deadset against the Euro, going against the official party line. Even though most of the public also disagreed with the Euro, it still damaged the Tories because of the sense of "if they're going to be spending all their time fighting with eachother, how are they going to have to the time to run the country properly?"
OK, that's overdramatic, but win or lose in Clacton, how can the Tories combat the threat of UKIP and defeat Labour at the same time? What is it that will overcome that? Fear of Ed M is not pulling the voters back to them even if they see Ed M as inadequate. Labour are not imploding alongside them. The party is still deeply split on Europe and other issues, so Cameron cannot present a firm vision for a lot of important issues, weakening his campaigning focus and power.
In what way can the Tories make themselves strong enough to overcome even a weakened Labour at this point? I cannot see it.
Is that really what you intended to say? It's a view.
Anybody interested in an effective government will have to vote Labour to get these rabid, suicidal right wingers out.
The weird thing is though, 1997 was a dead loss from September 1992, where-as 2015 was winnable. But one term in government was enough for the Tories to implode. Quite amazing really.
Mervyn King: Election winner will be out of power for a generation
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/edmundconway/100005270/king-election-winner-will-be-out-of-power-for-a-generation/
This thinking has informed a lot of why I've thought Labour would win in 2015 ever since the 2010 GE (though the Tories good numbers for the first couple of years gave me some doubt), though I didn't buy into the idea it would be a generation out of power for the Tories as a result. It isn't down to austerity really, as King's thinking ran, but it's looking like a solid bet now. I only wish I had placed a bet on it, curse my indecisiveness.
Not exactly child bride, but you get the picture that it didn't start with the Muslims? It always went on at the interface of power and poverty
Eliza Armstrong Case
In 1885, William Stead (1849-1912), editor of the Pall Mall Gazette, brought this whole issue front & center in a series of articles entitled The Maiden Tribute of Modern Babylon during the Victorian Era. He was prosecuted and imprisoned for kidnapping after he published a series of articles proving he could buy a 13 year old chimney sweep’s daughter for £5 by her own mother. His conviction was based on his failure to get “permission” to purchase the girl. Bramwell Booth of the Salvation Army helped Stead purchase the girl. She was purchased by former prostitute Rebecca Jarrett and brought to a brothel lightly-drugged & placed under the care of the Salvation Army and sent to France.
http://victoriantruth.blogspot.co.uk/2008/07/victorian-era-prostitution-in-us-part_20.html