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Now a 58% betting chance that the PM won’t survive 2022 – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,719

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Give it up HY! Boris is done. It's all over.

    Nope, I am now more determined than ever this morning Boris must stay.

    This Cummings coup must be stopped at all costs!
    Labour likes this 👍
    To be honest after the events of the last 24 hours I would almost prefer a PM Starmer than a Cummings puppet as PM if the Cummings coup to topple Boris, our biggest election winner since Thatcher, succeeded.
    You have a Cummings puppet as PM now - the only trouble is Cummings is cutting the strings one by one.
    Very good
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    SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 6,259
    edited January 2022
    Sandpit said:

    Johnson's problem is the stuff about saying he didn't realise it was a party. It's the thing that will be latched onto - it's so ridiculous, and that sort of thing cuts through.

    The way his opponents are going on, it’s as if they invited a load of outsiders, caterers and a DJ, and kept going until three in the morning.
    Part of the trouble with Johnson telling lie after lie is that people in the real world imagine the worst and nobody can dissuade them of it. There has been so little transparency, reports of 'phones being wiped and so on, that it is perfectly understandable.

    Johnson cannot now be believed on any aspect of this - and it isn't the Opposition's fault, but his own. You must realise that.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Give it up HY! Boris is done. It's all over.

    Nope, I am now more determined than ever this morning Boris must stay.

    This Cummings coup must be stopped at all costs!
    Labour likes this 👍
    To be honest after the events of the last 24 hours I would almost prefer a PM Starmer than a Cummings puppet as PM if the Cummings coup to topple Boris, our biggest election winner since Thatcher, succeeded.
    You have a Cummings puppet as PM now - the only trouble is Cummings is cutting the strings one by one.
    Nope, Cummings left No 10 and is trying to get his revenge. When it was Boris who won the Leave vote and the 2019 general election not Cummings what ever the latter thinks
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,680
    Thread:

    The Johnson apology was carefully worded and obviously lawyered. He said that he attended because he "believed implicitly that this was a work event", that "with hindsight" he should have sent everyone back inside, and "technically" it could be said to fall within the guidance.....

    The apology - when read carefully - was to the millions of people who "wouldn’t see it in that way", but because he also said technically it could be said to fall within the guidance he is implicitly saying the millions of people are wrong in their interpretation.

    This was only what *he* thought the event was. He "went into the garden to thank groups of staff for 25 minutes [he] believed implicitly this was a work event". So defence is a personal one only and leaves open the possibility the event was something else without him realising...



    Also, PM has probably been advised that the only possible personal liability would be as an accessory to others' criminal offences (he wasn't outside of his home so not subject to the restriction on movement regulation). So has to say he "implicitly" didn't believe it broke rules


    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1481239761570390021?s=20
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    Better for Labour if Boris stays tbh

    Boris is clinging onto the impending report and expecting it to clear him

    The question now is does his mps wait or act now

    It is clear Boris does not intend to resign
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,242
    Sebastian Payne
    @SebastianEPayne
    One senior Tory MP texts, "I think he's made it worse. He admitted he was present and tried to pass it off as a work party. Won't wash"
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    good for Sharma bringing up that shit Farthing
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,778
    IanB2 said:

    Stereodog said:

    DavidL said:

    So, SKS has called upon the PM to resign, the PM has declined. Surely the next step is a VONC?

    SNP's job.
    Unless the rules have changed the SNP can't automatically table a VONC. That privilege is reserved for the official opposition.
    Strictly, they can table one (as they did once before) but it isn’t guaranteed any parliamentary time.
    What's the logic? Or is it just precedent?
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    kinabalu said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Give it up HY! Boris is done. It's all over.

    Surely the worst Prime Minister since Lord North.
    Certainly the worst in my lifetime. Atlee was my first.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,242
    Work "events" were not allowed at the time surely?

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    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,268
    TOPPING said:

    Johnson is now the laughing stock of Britain.

    "I thought it was a work event".

    My arse.

    It was at his workplace. Should he have held the event in the first place? No I don't think so but the garden at Downing Street is an extension of his workplace.

    I have no idea what other people were or were not doing in their workplace but workplace it was.

    The issue is that Boris didn't realise the politics of it all and went ahead.

    But of course no one is in the mood for the boring details.
    I don't understand this defence. People were allowed to go into workplaces for essential work.

    Having a party in your workplace doesn't stop it from being a party. It doesn't make drinking alcohol and excruciating small talk essential work.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    DavidL said:

    Better for Labour if Boris stays tbh

    Better for Labour if all of his possible replacements are forced to vote to defend this. If SKS misses this chance he may regret it. As LOTO he should move it as soon as PMQs is over, just as Boris thinks he is getting out of there.
    Do you mean a VONC?

    Would be meaningless in my opinion - mere theatre.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307
    kinabalu said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Give it up HY! Boris is done. It's all over.

    Surely the worst Prime Minister since Lord North.
    I would say since Theresa May myself.
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    eekeek Posts: 24,981
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Give it up HY! Boris is done. It's all over.

    Nope, I am now more determined than ever this morning Boris must stay.

    This Cummings coup must be stopped at all costs!
    Perfect - as that is the ideal result for Labour, the SNP and the Lib Dems. Vote Tory for more lies and false promises.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,677
    Sandpit said:

    Johnson's problem is the stuff about saying he didn't realise it was a party. It's the thing that will be latched onto - it's so ridiculous, and that sort of thing cuts through.

    The way his opponents are going on, it’s as if they invited a load of outsiders, caterers and a DJ, and kept going until three in the morning.
    Missing the point once again: Lying to the HoC.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,242
    Iain Martin
    @iainmartin1
    ·
    51s
    Please someone, any MP, ask the PM to define the "work event" he keeps referring to or work party. It didn't exist as a concept or as a defence in May 2020. It is a breach of the law. #PMQs
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,024

    eek said:

    “In #Tianjin, epidemiological investigations on 80 people infected with #Omicron found that 76 of them had been **fully vaccinated with Chinese-made vaccines**, including 20 who had received a booster shot.”

    https://t.co/57er5pteKY

    👊🏽 @Nectar_Gan

    https://twitter.com/klustout/status/1481180825756618756?t=5PnqE5lK0mKNfNh8QmK86Q&s=19

    Another Chinese city of 13m in lockdown.

    The problem with the Chinese made vaccines is that they don't seem to work that well - it's not quite injecting a saline solution but it's not far off.
    This is why the party are clearly taking such extreme measures they know their population isn't protected and big O spreads like crazy. Their narrative of total success against fighting COVID could self-destruct.
    to be accurate, Sinovac had the poorest protection, but Sinopharm was quite a bit better. But both are much worse against Delta and Winnie-the-Pooh.
    I think that was to perceived wisdom, but I seemed to remember reading that both now have been found to be basically useless.
    Against the original strain they were lower on the list of vaccines in terms of efficacy. The problem is the new strains. The other vaccines have held up much better.

    As I understand it.

    I have heard it rumoured that a couple of countries are considering not accepting vaccination with Sinovac for entry.
    I don't have time to dig out the article, but even Sinopharm was found to be rubbish because the protection it did give waned so quickly. I think about 3 months was about all you got in terms of protection. Chile were jabbing people 4 times, 2 pfizer, because of this.
    Distant relatives of mine in another country have just had their fifth dose (Pfizer). Their first three were one of the Chinese vaccines (I cannot remember which one). It shows how much faith that particular country has in the Chinese vaccines...
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,719

    TOPPING said:

    Johnson is now the laughing stock of Britain.

    "I thought it was a work event".

    My arse.

    It was at his workplace. Should he have held the event in the first place? No I don't think so but the garden at Downing Street is an extension of his workplace.

    I have no idea what other people were or were not doing in their workplace but workplace it was.

    The issue is that Boris didn't realise the politics of it all and went ahead.

    But of course no one is in the mood for the boring details.
    I don't understand this defence. People were allowed to go into workplaces for essential work.

    Having a party in your workplace doesn't stop it from being a party. It doesn't make drinking alcohol and excruciating small talk essential work.
    No - but it does mean that you were rubbing shoulders (outside) with the very same people you were rubbing shoulders with all day anyway (indoors).

    Framing guidelines as laws loses common sense does it not?
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,463
    Really he should be ready to have a fork stuck in him after all this.

    I worry that the classic “wait until the investigation has concluded” will buy him time though.

    Starmer did well (with an open goal), but really this is now down to the Tory MPs. I certainly think his position is untenable. I think many others do too. The problem is that I have a horrible feeling he’s going to ride it out. In the meantime the country suffers.
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    stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,779
    Bill Clinton: "It depends on what the meaning of the word "is" is."

    Boris Johnson: "It depends on what the meaning of the word "party" is."
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    Sebastian Payne
    @SebastianEPayne
    One senior Tory MP texts, "I think he's made it worse. He admitted he was present and tried to pass it off as a work party. Won't wash"

    And that having admitted that (a) it took place and (b) he was there that we need to await the Grey investigation into whether (a) it took place and if (b) he was there.

    Genuinely bonkers.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,420
    edited January 2022

    eek said:

    “In #Tianjin, epidemiological investigations on 80 people infected with #Omicron found that 76 of them had been **fully vaccinated with Chinese-made vaccines**, including 20 who had received a booster shot.”

    https://t.co/57er5pteKY

    👊🏽 @Nectar_Gan

    https://twitter.com/klustout/status/1481180825756618756?t=5PnqE5lK0mKNfNh8QmK86Q&s=19

    Another Chinese city of 13m in lockdown.

    The problem with the Chinese made vaccines is that they don't seem to work that well - it's not quite injecting a saline solution but it's not far off.
    This is why the party are clearly taking such extreme measures they know their population isn't protected and big O spreads like crazy. Their narrative of total success against fighting COVID could self-destruct.
    to be accurate, Sinovac had the poorest protection, but Sinopharm was quite a bit better. But both are much worse against Delta and Winnie-the-Pooh.
    I think that was to perceived wisdom, but I seemed to remember reading that both now have been found to be basically useless.
    Against the original strain they were lower on the list of vaccines in terms of efficacy. The problem is the new strains. The other vaccines have held up much better.

    As I understand it.

    I have heard it rumoured that a couple of countries are considering not accepting vaccination with Sinovac for entry.
    I don't have time to dig out the article, but even Sinopharm was found to be rubbish because the protection it did give waned so quickly. I think about 3 months was about all you got in terms of protection. Chile were jabbing people 4 times, 2 pfizer, because of this.
    Distant relatives of mine in another country have just had their fifth dose (Pfizer). Their first three were one of the Chinese vaccines (I cannot remember which one). It shows how much faith that particular country has in the Chinese vaccines...
    Some friends in Dubai carefully bypassed the Chinese vaccine they were offered, for Pfizer, IIRC.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,307

    DavidL said:

    Better for Labour if Boris stays tbh

    Better for Labour if all of his possible replacements are forced to vote to defend this. If SKS misses this chance he may regret it. As LOTO he should move it as soon as PMQs is over, just as Boris thinks he is getting out of there.
    Do you mean a VONC?

    Would be meaningless in my opinion - mere theatre.
    I don't think so. He has Boris exactly where he wants him right now. He wants to keep talking about this. And if a significant number of Tory MPs are not willing to accept this apology he will have got his man. In the meantime the cabinet and other potential leaders like Hunt take collateral damage.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,651

    Better for Labour if Boris stays tbh

    Absolutely.

    Every day he stays in office the stench of sleaze and lies of this government spreads further across the Tory party, soiling them all.

    Then let the voters give their verdict on him.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,994
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Is HYUFD watching a different PMQs, one from a parallel / mirror universe?

    The same one, Starmer may be winning a few debating points, Boris coming across more empathetic and better in living rooms and showing the humility he needed.

    As a Tory member and branch chairman Boris stays. This Cummings coup must be stopped
    I really hope you are right HYUFD.
    It's really important that Boris stays in place until at least after the May local elections.
    Any help you can give to keep him in place will be much appreciated.
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    Work "events" were not allowed at the time surely?

    Categorically not. Even as a company where employees were key workers we did not do anything in person and instead went home for virtual drinks.
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    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,677
    Barnesian said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Is HYUFD watching a different PMQs, one from a parallel / mirror universe?

    The same one, Starmer may be winning a few debating points, Boris coming across more empathetic and better in living rooms and showing the humility he needed.

    As a Tory member and branch chairman Boris stays. This Cummings coup must be stopped
    I really hope you are right HYUFD.
    It's really important that Boris stays in place until at least after the May local elections.
    Any help you can give to keep him in place will be much appreciated.
    He's doing his utmost tbf.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    eek said:

    “In #Tianjin, epidemiological investigations on 80 people infected with #Omicron found that 76 of them had been **fully vaccinated with Chinese-made vaccines**, including 20 who had received a booster shot.”

    https://t.co/57er5pteKY

    👊🏽 @Nectar_Gan

    https://twitter.com/klustout/status/1481180825756618756?t=5PnqE5lK0mKNfNh8QmK86Q&s=19

    Another Chinese city of 13m in lockdown.

    The problem with the Chinese made vaccines is that they don't seem to work that well - it's not quite injecting a saline solution but it's not far off.
    This is why the party are clearly taking such extreme measures they know their population isn't protected and big O spreads like crazy. Their narrative of total success against fighting COVID could self-destruct.
    to be accurate, Sinovac had the poorest protection, but Sinopharm was quite a bit better. But both are much worse against Delta and Winnie-the-Pooh.
    I think that was to perceived wisdom, but I seemed to remember reading that both now have been found to be basically useless.
    3x Sinopharm was as good as 2x AZ. Sinovac was basically pointless, I remember seeing that even with 4 doses it gave less than 50% efficacy against severe symptoms for Delta.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898

    Sandpit said:

    Johnson's problem is the stuff about saying he didn't realise it was a party. It's the thing that will be latched onto - it's so ridiculous, and that sort of thing cuts through.

    The way his opponents are going on, it’s as if they invited a load of outsiders, caterers and a DJ, and kept going until three in the morning.
    Missing the point once again: Lying to the HoC.
    Again, what exactly did he say that’s untrue?
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,631
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Give it up HY! Boris is done. It's all over.

    Nope, I am now more determined than ever this morning Boris must stay.

    This Cummings coup must be stopped at all costs!
    Labour likes this 👍
    To be honest after the events of the last 24 hours I would almost prefer a PM Starmer than a Cummings puppet as PM if the Cummings coup to topple Boris, our biggest election winner since Thatcher, succeeded.
    I'm shocked and impressed. So there actually are circumstances where you would not support the Tories.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008

    kinabalu said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Give it up HY! Boris is done. It's all over.

    Surely the worst Prime Minister since Lord North.
    Certainly the worst in my lifetime. Atlee was my first.
    What a load of crap.

    Boris delivered Brexit against the odds, rolled out one of the most successful vaccination programmes in the world, won a landslide.

    Eden, Heath, Callaghan, Major, Brown, May all weaker PMs than Boris even in just the last 70 years
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,981

    Sandpit said:

    Johnson's problem is the stuff about saying he didn't realise it was a party. It's the thing that will be latched onto - it's so ridiculous, and that sort of thing cuts through.

    The way his opponents are going on, it’s as if they invited a load of outsiders, caterers and a DJ, and kept going until three in the morning.
    Missing the point once again: Lying to the HoC.
    Technically he has quite lied yet - but Boris has turned that path he must pass through from being 9 kilometres wide to about 1 nanometre wide. And there is no chance that when the next question drops that he isn't going to walk into the traps that have now been set.
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    pingping Posts: 3,731
    Boris is doing serious damage to the Tory party.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Better for Labour if Boris stays tbh

    Better for Labour if all of his possible replacements are forced to vote to defend this. If SKS misses this chance he may regret it. As LOTO he should move it as soon as PMQs is over, just as Boris thinks he is getting out of there.
    Do you mean a VONC?

    Would be meaningless in my opinion - mere theatre.
    I don't think so. He has Boris exactly where he wants him right now. He wants to keep talking about this. And if a significant number of Tory MPs are not willing to accept this apology he will have got his man. In the meantime the cabinet and other potential leaders like Hunt take collateral damage.
    But in the long run nobody will care who voted for what along party lines in a VONC
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008
    ping said:

    Boris is doing serious damage to the Tory party.

    Cummings is trying to do serious damage to the Tory Party and if he wants a Tory civil war he will get one
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Is HYUFD watching a different PMQs, one from a parallel / mirror universe?

    The same one, Starmer may be winning a few debating points, Boris coming across more empathetic and better in living rooms and showing the humility he needed.

    As a Tory member and branch chairman Boris stays. This Cummings coup must be stopped

    "As pressure mounts on Boris Johnson over whether he attended a No 10 party during lockdown in May 2020, the BBC has spoken to families of people who died that same month."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-59963012
    Who now would be much less likely to die thanks to the vaccination and booster rollout thanks to Boris the UK now leads the G7 on.

    Sad cases all but Boris not having a brief post work thank you drinks in the No 10 garden would not have saved their lives
    Unless you're imbuing BJ with resurrectionary powers, they've already died.
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,719
    ping said:

    Boris is doing serious damage to the Tory party.

    Yes - why can't they see that?
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    Stereodog said:

    DavidL said:

    So, SKS has called upon the PM to resign, the PM has declined. Surely the next step is a VONC?

    SNP's job.
    Unless the rules have changed the SNP can't automatically table a VONC. That privilege is reserved for the official opposition.
    Strictly, they can table one (as they did once before) but it isn’t guaranteed any parliamentary time.
    What's the logic? Or is it just precedent?
    The opposition should have the balls to front it themselves - without their support it won’t succeed. Without restrictions you lead to endless abuse / time wasting
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,680
    Next few days will be crucial. Gloomy faces on the Tory benches suggest they’re less than convinced by PM’s semi-apology (‘sorry, but I didn’t break any rules’). Will he be able to ride out public anger and backbench frustration? He’s going to try.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1481242936180363268?s=20
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Give it up HY! Boris is done. It's all over.

    Surely the worst Prime Minister since Lord North.
    I would say since Theresa May myself.
    It's a view.
  • Options
    EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    edited January 2022
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Give it up HY! Boris is done. It's all over.

    Nope, I am now more determined than ever this morning Boris must stay.

    This Cummings coup must be stopped at all costs!
    Labour likes this 👍
    To be honest after the events of the last 24 hours I would almost prefer a PM Starmer than a Cummings puppet as PM if the Cummings coup to topple Boris, our biggest election winner since Thatcher, succeeded.
    "Cummings puppet" is a fair description of Johnson's time as PM up till late 2020, no?
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,778
    Charles said:

    Carnyx said:

    IanB2 said:

    Stereodog said:

    DavidL said:

    So, SKS has called upon the PM to resign, the PM has declined. Surely the next step is a VONC?

    SNP's job.
    Unless the rules have changed the SNP can't automatically table a VONC. That privilege is reserved for the official opposition.
    Strictly, they can table one (as they did once before) but it isn’t guaranteed any parliamentary time.
    What's the logic? Or is it just precedent?
    The opposition should have the balls to front it themselves - without their support it won’t succeed. Without restrictions you lead to endless abuse / time wasting
    The main opposition, yes. But thanks, that makes sense.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,242

    Thread:

    The Johnson apology was carefully worded and obviously lawyered. He said that he attended because he "believed implicitly that this was a work event", that "with hindsight" he should have sent everyone back inside, and "technically" it could be said to fall within the guidance.....

    The apology - when read carefully - was to the millions of people who "wouldn’t see it in that way", but because he also said technically it could be said to fall within the guidance he is implicitly saying the millions of people are wrong in their interpretation.

    This was only what *he* thought the event was. He "went into the garden to thank groups of staff for 25 minutes [he] believed implicitly this was a work event". So defence is a personal one only and leaves open the possibility the event was something else without him realising...



    Also, PM has probably been advised that the only possible personal liability would be as an accessory to others' criminal offences (he wasn't outside of his home so not subject to the restriction on movement regulation). So has to say he "implicitly" didn't believe it broke rules


    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1481239761570390021?s=20

    Erm, is he is saying it was not a criminal offence for the actual host to be at a party in their own garden? It was the others who broke the law?

    Tell that the nottingham student who was fined £10k for having a party in his own house.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Give it up HY! Boris is done. It's all over.

    Nope, I am now more determined than ever this morning Boris must stay.

    This Cummings coup must be stopped at all costs!
    Labour likes this 👍
    To be honest after the events of the last 24 hours I would almost prefer a PM Starmer than a Cummings puppet as PM if the Cummings coup to topple Boris, our biggest election winner since Thatcher, succeeded.
    I'm shocked and impressed. So there actually are circumstances where you would not support the Tories.
    I will always support the Tories, however I will have little enthusiasm for a Cummings imposed puppet PM, in some respects better in those circumstances to go into opposition and rebuild free of Cummings' darkness
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,283
    edited January 2022
    LauraK: ”I don’t think this makes it go away at all”

    “It was billed clearly as a social event” (in the email)

    “This may have bought Johnson some time..he is basically pleading with his party to wait until the inquiry”
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    HYUFD said:

    ping said:

    Boris is doing serious damage to the Tory party.

    Cummings is trying to do serious damage to the Tory Party and if he wants a Tory civil war he will get one
    Labour likes this 👍
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,970
    Chris Bryant good.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,197
    kinabalu said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Give it up HY! Boris is done. It's all over.

    Surely the worst Prime Minister since Lord North.
    You didn't need "since Lord North".
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Why didn't this non apology not come ages ago ?

    He's only (non) apologised because he's been caught.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    MaxPB said:

    eek said:

    “In #Tianjin, epidemiological investigations on 80 people infected with #Omicron found that 76 of them had been **fully vaccinated with Chinese-made vaccines**, including 20 who had received a booster shot.”

    https://t.co/57er5pteKY

    👊🏽 @Nectar_Gan

    https://twitter.com/klustout/status/1481180825756618756?t=5PnqE5lK0mKNfNh8QmK86Q&s=19

    Another Chinese city of 13m in lockdown.

    The problem with the Chinese made vaccines is that they don't seem to work that well - it's not quite injecting a saline solution but it's not far off.
    This is why the party are clearly taking such extreme measures they know their population isn't protected and big O spreads like crazy. Their narrative of total success against fighting COVID could self-destruct.
    to be accurate, Sinovac had the poorest protection, but Sinopharm was quite a bit better. But both are much worse against Delta and Winnie-the-Pooh.
    I think that was to perceived wisdom, but I seemed to remember reading that both now have been found to be basically useless.
    3x Sinopharm was as good as 2x AZ. Sinovac was basically pointless, I remember seeing that even with 4 doses it gave less than 50% efficacy against severe symptoms for Delta.
    There’s a fair few people out here, who had 2x Sinopharm early last year, and 2x Pfizer later on.

    Sinovac, as you say, was a total dud that should never have been approved by the WHO.
  • Options
    boulayboulay Posts: 3,930
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Give it up HY! Boris is done. It's all over.

    Nope, I am now more determined than ever this morning Boris must stay.

    This Cummings coup must be stopped at all costs!
    Labour likes this 👍
    To be honest after the events of the last 24 hours I would almost prefer a PM Starmer than a Cummings puppet as PM if the Cummings coup to topple Boris, our biggest election winner since Thatcher, succeeded.
    I’m assuming you are referring to Sunak as the “Cummings puppet”?

    Wasn’t Sunak supposed to be a No.10 puppet when Javid wouldn’t ditch the approved advisors - I think that anyone who thinks Sunak is their puppet will find he’s more able and independent than they think and not easily “controlled” judging by how he has performed since becoming CotE….
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,719

    Stocky said:

    eek said:


    Harry Cole
    @MrHarryCole
    Suspect a lawyer has had a look at that statement.
    Quote Tweet
    Ben Riley-Smith
    @benrileysmith
    · 4m
    The core of Boris Johnson’s defence was in that apology - he thought May 20 was a work event, technically it was, Downing St garden an extension of the government office.

    Work event is not sufficient regardless. It would have needed to be essential for work.
    He is being skewered by the absurdity of his own rules. What if the work colleagues had stood around inside No 10 with mugs of coffee?
    The rules were always ridiculous. So we saw a couple of women charged in Derbyshire for having the temerity to talk a walk at a beauty spot close to home with a cup of coffee. We had benches taped off. We had people being turned away from walking in the mountains. You could only meet one person, 2m apart outside. Woe betide if you encountered a couple who you knew - send one of them home...

    We laughed at the time, and mocked. We now see that the idiots writing the rules either didn't understand or didn't think they applied to them. Both are equally unpalatable.

    The truth is you cannot draw up such rules without them being utterly ridiculous under even the slightest scrutiny. Far better I think to trust the public in future. We've seen the public effectively shut itself away this December to avoid wrecking Christmas. Why not trust them to do the right thing? forget 'laws' and 'rules' - just give advice.

    Then none of this would have happened.
    "Why not trust them to do the right thing? forget 'laws' and 'rules' - just give advice." Yep - spot on.

    A ray of hope that similar will never happen again.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,778
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Give it up HY! Boris is done. It's all over.

    Nope, I am now more determined than ever this morning Boris must stay.

    This Cummings coup must be stopped at all costs!
    Labour likes this 👍
    To be honest after the events of the last 24 hours I would almost prefer a PM Starmer than a Cummings puppet as PM if the Cummings coup to topple Boris, our biggest election winner since Thatcher, succeeded.
    I'm shocked and impressed. So there actually are circumstances where you would not support the Tories.
    Further circumstances. He's already proven a great patriot for Welsh independence, remember.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,242
    Laura K tearing Johnson's flimsy defence to pieces.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,024
    stjohn said:

    Bill Clinton: "It depends on what the meaning of the word "is" is."

    Boris Johnson: "It depends on what the meaning of the word "party" is."

    To be fair, it doesn't really sound like much of a party to me - unless there was lots of music and snogging going on? I know this was a Conservative do and Boris was there, so the latter was probably going on, but the former?

    So what defines a party? Thinking about it (probably not enough):
    Music.
    Different clothes from your usual attire.
    Drink and food/nibbles.

    There's probably a whole range of possibilities, from 'work do' through 'get-together', to 'party' and 'SeanT-style debauched hedonistic jamboree."
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Give it up HY! Boris is done. It's all over.

    Nope, I am now more determined than ever this morning Boris must stay.

    This Cummings coup must be stopped at all costs!
    Labour likes this 👍
    To be honest after the events of the last 24 hours I would almost prefer a PM Starmer than a Cummings puppet as PM if the Cummings coup to topple Boris, our biggest election winner since Thatcher, succeeded.
    You have a Cummings puppet as PM now - the only trouble is Cummings is cutting the strings one by one.
    Nope, Cummings left No 10 and is trying to get his revenge. When it was Boris who won the Leave vote and the 2019 general election not Cummings what ever the latter thinks
    Definitely wrong and possibly wrong. Without Cummings the Referendum wouldn't have been won for Leave.

    ...And if it hadn't been won Johnson would never have got anywhere near No !0
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Shower of shenanigans is good from Bryant.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,420

    Really he should be ready to have a fork stuck in him after all this.

    I worry that the classic “wait until the investigation has concluded” will buy him time though.

    Starmer did well (with an open goal), but really this is now down to the Tory MPs. I certainly think his position is untenable. I think many others do too. The problem is that I have a horrible feeling he’s going to ride it out. In the meantime the country suffers.

    Time for a Downfall video....

    Anyone got the time to give it a go?
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    eekeek Posts: 24,981
    The Sun
    @TheSun
    ·
    1m
    Boris Johnson apologises for No10 lockdown-busting party but tries to claim it was a work event

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    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Is HYUFD watching a different PMQs, one from a parallel / mirror universe?

    The same one, Starmer may be winning a few debating points, Boris coming across more empathetic and better in living rooms and showing the humility he needed.

    As a Tory member and branch chairman Boris stays. This Cummings coup must be stopped

    "As pressure mounts on Boris Johnson over whether he attended a No 10 party during lockdown in May 2020, the BBC has spoken to families of people who died that same month."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-59963012
    Who now would be much less likely to die thanks to the vaccination and booster rollout thanks to Boris the UK now leads the G7 on.

    Sad cases all but Boris not having a brief post work thank you drinks in the No 10 garden would not have saved their lives
    You shameless tw*t
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    IshmaelZ said:

    Shower of shenanigans is good from Bryant.

    It was almost 'shower of shit'....almost...
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    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,140
    "I've come to this House to make amends..." Then brain kicks in "hang on - is that a gaffe, quick change course..."
  • Options
    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,244
    .
    dixiedean said:

    Chris Bryant good.

    Shower of Shenanigans. Chuckle.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226
    Stocky said:

    Why is @Isam still banned? Would have liked to hear his views on all this.

    Me too. Everything he's said has turned out to be utter drivel. Be nice to get an apology. Come back isam!
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,981

    Really he should be ready to have a fork stuck in him after all this.

    I worry that the classic “wait until the investigation has concluded” will buy him time though.

    Starmer did well (with an open goal), but really this is now down to the Tory MPs. I certainly think his position is untenable. I think many others do too. The problem is that I have a horrible feeling he’s going to ride it out. In the meantime the country suffers.

    Time for a Downfall video....

    Anyone got the time to give it a go?
    John Bull pointed out that the Downfall meme video generator seems to have disappeared.
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    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Give it up HY! Boris is done. It's all over.

    Surely the worst Prime Minister since Lord North.
    Certainly the worst in my lifetime. Atlee was my first.
    What a load of crap.

    Boris delivered Brexit against the odds, rolled out one of the most successful vaccination programmes in the world, won a landslide.

    Eden, Heath, Callaghan, Major, Brown, May all weaker PMs than Boris even in just the last 70 years
    Oooh....well off target there, Hyufd, but I appreciate it's a difficult time for you.
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    stjohn said:

    Bill Clinton: "It depends on what the meaning of the word "is" is."

    Boris Johnson: "It depends on what the meaning of the word "party" is."

    To be fair, it doesn't really sound like much of a party to me - unless there was lots of music and snogging going on? I know this was a Conservative do and Boris was there, so the latter was probably going on, but the former?

    So what defines a party? Thinking about it (probably not enough):
    Music.
    Different clothes from your usual attire.
    Drink and food/nibbles.

    There's probably a whole range of possibilities, from 'work do' through 'get-together', to 'party' and 'SeanT-style debauched hedonistic jamboree."
    It should make zero difference whether it was a party or not. Gathering exemptions, making them lawful, were not for things that were not parties, but for essential work meetings. Do you think this was in any sense an essential work meeting?
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    "A bunch of people with booze" is not a party if and only if you work at a brewery or an off licence.
  • Options
    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,244
    I think todays absence from Sunak puts to bed all that bullshit before Xmas about him being on an urgent trade mission.

    Question is, how will that play with the voters in the parliamentary party?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,680
    Chris Bryant more forensic than SKS.....
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008
    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Give it up HY! Boris is done. It's all over.

    Nope, I am now more determined than ever this morning Boris must stay.

    This Cummings coup must be stopped at all costs!
    Labour likes this 👍
    To be honest after the events of the last 24 hours I would almost prefer a PM Starmer than a Cummings puppet as PM if the Cummings coup to topple Boris, our biggest election winner since Thatcher, succeeded.
    You have a Cummings puppet as PM now - the only trouble is Cummings is cutting the strings one by one.
    Nope, Cummings left No 10 and is trying to get his revenge. When it was Boris who won the Leave vote and the 2019 general election not Cummings what ever the latter thinks
    Definitely wrong and possibly wrong. Without Cummings the Referendum wouldn't have been won for Leave.

    ...And if it hadn't been won Johnson would never have got anywhere near No !0
    Cummings and Gove would not have won the referendum for Leave, nor would Farage, only Boris got it over 50% and only Boris got the landslide win in 2019 to make Brexit happen
  • Options
    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    edited January 2022
    moonshine said:

    I think todays absence from Sunak puts to bed all that bullshit before Xmas about him being on an urgent trade mission.

    Question is, how will that play with the voters in the parliamentary party?

    If they've got any sense they won't mind that the lifeboat is staying well clear of icebergs given the gaping hole in the main ship.
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    He apologised but spoiled it by saying 'but there there was nothing to apologise for'
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226
    Sandpit said:

    Johnson's problem is the stuff about saying he didn't realise it was a party. It's the thing that will be latched onto - it's so ridiculous, and that sort of thing cuts through.

    The way his opponents are going on, it’s as if they invited a load of outsiders, caterers and a DJ, and kept going until three in the morning.
    Johnson is still lying though. This is the problem.
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    Ladbrokes have trimmed their price on Boris out this year from 8/15 about two hours ago to 4/9 now
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    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,463

    Thread:

    The Johnson apology was carefully worded and obviously lawyered. He said that he attended because he "believed implicitly that this was a work event", that "with hindsight" he should have sent everyone back inside, and "technically" it could be said to fall within the guidance.....

    The apology - when read carefully - was to the millions of people who "wouldn’t see it in that way", but because he also said technically it could be said to fall within the guidance he is implicitly saying the millions of people are wrong in their interpretation.

    This was only what *he* thought the event was. He "went into the garden to thank groups of staff for 25 minutes [he] believed implicitly this was a work event". So defence is a personal one only and leaves open the possibility the event was something else without him realising...



    Also, PM has probably been advised that the only possible personal liability would be as an accessory to others' criminal offences (he wasn't outside of his home so not subject to the restriction on movement regulation). So has to say he "implicitly" didn't believe it broke rules


    https://twitter.com/AdamWagner1/status/1481239761570390021?s=20

    Erm, is he is saying it was not a criminal offence for the actual host to be at a party in their own garden? It was the others who broke the law?

    Tell that the nottingham student who was fined £10k for having a party in his own house.
    This is exactly the problem. This is why Hancock’s position became untenable and why Boris’ should be.

    Nobody will be impressed by the splitting of hairs between rules/spirit of the regulations or the minutiae of the procures around civil service investigations. People made the largest sacrifice of their freedoms since the Second World War in the past 2 years. Any suggestion that the Prime Minister of this country did not think it appropriate to both follow the letter and the spirit of the regulations is a mortal wound to their reputation and leadership.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,999

    The party is over Prime Minister

    Boris fans please explain
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,008
    moonshine said:

    I think todays absence from Sunak puts to bed all that bullshit before Xmas about him being on an urgent trade mission.

    Question is, how will that play with the voters in the parliamentary party?

    The assassin generally never wears the crown, if it turns out Sunak is actively involved in this Cummings coup there would be hell to pay.

    At least when Thatcher stood against Heath or Heseltine against Thatcher over the poll tax or Boris against May over Brexit there were genuine policy differences, not just ego boosting
  • Options
    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    Why is @Isam still banned? Would have liked to hear his views on all this.

    Me too. Everything he's said has turned out to be utter drivel. Be nice to get an apology. Come back isam!
    Sorry for cheerleading Boris, there were things I did not get right, I believed implicitly a lying man was being honest. With hindsight I should have found some other way to support Brexit, and even if technically his superior personality is the dominant factor in British politics, I can see that dozens of other posters might see it differently.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Give it up HY! Boris is done. It's all over.

    Nope, I am now more determined than ever this morning Boris must stay.

    This Cummings coup must be stopped at all costs!
    Labour likes this 👍
    To be honest after the events of the last 24 hours I would almost prefer a PM Starmer than a Cummings puppet as PM if the Cummings coup to topple Boris, our biggest election winner since Thatcher, succeeded.
    You have a Cummings puppet as PM now - the only trouble is Cummings is cutting the strings one by one.
    Nope, Cummings left No 10 and is trying to get his revenge. When it was Boris who won the Leave vote and the 2019 general election not Cummings what ever the latter thinks
    Definitely wrong and possibly wrong. Without Cummings the Referendum wouldn't have been won for Leave.

    ...And if it hadn't been won Johnson would never have got anywhere near No !0
    Cummings and Gove would not have won the referendum for Leave, nor would Farage, only Boris got it over 50% and only Boris got the landslide win in 2019 to make Brexit happen
    This is the most bizarre of arguments. It didn't need a landslide to make Brexit happen, Theresa May had already done that. It just needed the clock to run out.
  • Options
    Transport Minister absolutely drowning on BBC2. The "work event" and "wait for the enquiry" line falls over as soon as you breathe on it.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,283
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Johnson's problem is the stuff about saying he didn't realise it was a party. It's the thing that will be latched onto - it's so ridiculous, and that sort of thing cuts through.

    The way his opponents are going on, it’s as if they invited a load of outsiders, caterers and a DJ, and kept going until three in the morning.
    Missing the point once again: Lying to the HoC.
    Again, what exactly did he say that’s untrue?
    That he was “angry” and “furious” when he found out what his staff had been up to in his garden.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,268
    Sandpit said:

    I’ve still not changed my mind. Starmer and Blackford overdoing it.

    A drink after work, outside in the office garden, really isn’t the end of the world that’s being portrayed.

    People should never have been told not to meet other people outside, but they were, and the police harassed those ladies for walking with thermoses of tea, claiming that made it a picnic. Even in the autumn of 2020 there were still absurd rule of six rules limiting how many people you could meet outside.

    If they had the rules they should have followed them.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,420
    boulay said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Give it up HY! Boris is done. It's all over.

    Nope, I am now more determined than ever this morning Boris must stay.

    This Cummings coup must be stopped at all costs!
    Labour likes this 👍
    To be honest after the events of the last 24 hours I would almost prefer a PM Starmer than a Cummings puppet as PM if the Cummings coup to topple Boris, our biggest election winner since Thatcher, succeeded.
    I’m assuming you are referring to Sunak as the “Cummings puppet”?

    Wasn’t Sunak supposed to be a No.10 puppet when Javid wouldn’t ditch the approved advisors - I think that anyone who thinks Sunak is their puppet will find he’s more able and independent than they think and not easily “controlled” judging by how he has performed since becoming CotE….
    Yes. The history of politics is full of "Puppets" who turned out not to be... puppets.

    Harry Truman was originally pushed into politics as the representative of the Pendegast Machine (https://pendergastkc.org/article/decline-and-fall-pendergast-machine), He certainly don't end up their puppet....
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,994

    Ludicrous though the Boris non-apology is, and politically absurd as it is, and although it will satisfy no-one except perhaps HYUFD, the truth of the matter is that there is only one thing he could have said that would have been appropriate: "Mr Speaker, I take full responsibility for the matter and therefore I have humbly asked Her Majesty the Queen for an audience this afternoon, at which I will request to be relieved of the office of Prime Minister".

    I'm glad he didn't. We need him to stay in place (rubbing my hands).
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,242
    Jo Coberg tearing some hapless tory MP a new one.
  • Options
    Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    IanB2 said:

    LauraK: ”I don’t think this makes it go away at all”

    “It was billed clearly as a social event” (in the email)

    “This may have bought Johnson some time..he is basically pleading with his party to wait until the inquiry”

    It is the Johnson method - he only has to survive until tomorrow. Tomorrow's task will be to do the same thing again. Repeat ad nauseum

    It is like watching a human version of mathematical induction...
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    kinabalu said:

    Sandpit said:

    Johnson's problem is the stuff about saying he didn't realise it was a party. It's the thing that will be latched onto - it's so ridiculous, and that sort of thing cuts through.

    The way his opponents are going on, it’s as if they invited a load of outsiders, caterers and a DJ, and kept going until three in the morning.
    Johnson is still lying though. This is the problem.
    What did he say that was untrue?
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226
    edited January 2022
    The betting - a slight drift in the odds of Johnson going. So on that metric PMQs was a marginal win for him.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,981
    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    I think todays absence from Sunak puts to bed all that bullshit before Xmas about him being on an urgent trade mission.

    Question is, how will that play with the voters in the parliamentary party?

    The assassin generally never wears the crown, if it turns out Sunak is actively involved in this Cummings coup there would be hell to pay.

    At least when Thatcher stood against Heath or Heseltine against Thatcher over the poll tax or Boris against May over Brexit there were genuine policy differences, not just ego boosting
    No there won't be - October 2023 you will be knocking on the doors asking people to vote for your Tory candidate like the good blue rosette monkey that you are...
  • Options
    mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,140

    Chris Bryant more forensic than SKS.....

    I agree. On reflection, I think SKS asked his questions in the wrong order. It left the House in a shared "serious and sombre" mode which allowed the PM to also look "serious and sombre". He should perhaps have led with the serious and sombre scene setting, to provide context for skewering him on the lies. It would then have made the inevitable "for local media" repetition of the soundbites from the regional parties and backbenchers sound slightly less tone-deaf.

    But then again, I'm no expert.
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,778

    IanB2 said:

    LauraK: ”I don’t think this makes it go away at all”

    “It was billed clearly as a social event” (in the email)

    “This may have bought Johnson some time..he is basically pleading with his party to wait until the inquiry”

    It is the Johnson method - he only has to survive until tomorrow. Tomorrow's task will be to do the same thing again. Repeat ad nauseum

    It is like watching a human version of mathematical induction...
    Indeed, or the growth of a tapeworm. Just add another bit.
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,813
    Daily Politics on silent.

    Alison McGovern is going to wear out her special face of disbelief at this rate.
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    HYUFD said:

    ping said:

    Boris is doing serious damage to the Tory party.

    Cummings is trying to do serious damage to the Tory Party and if he wants a Tory civil war he will get one
    You and your tank v the conservative mps whose jobs are facing extinction
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    None of the ladies on Sky news buying Johnsons BS.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,420

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Give it up HY! Boris is done. It's all over.

    Nope, I am now more determined than ever this morning Boris must stay.

    This Cummings coup must be stopped at all costs!
    Labour likes this 👍
    To be honest after the events of the last 24 hours I would almost prefer a PM Starmer than a Cummings puppet as PM if the Cummings coup to topple Boris, our biggest election winner since Thatcher, succeeded.
    You have a Cummings puppet as PM now - the only trouble is Cummings is cutting the strings one by one.
    Nope, Cummings left No 10 and is trying to get his revenge. When it was Boris who won the Leave vote and the 2019 general election not Cummings what ever the latter thinks
    Definitely wrong and possibly wrong. Without Cummings the Referendum wouldn't have been won for Leave.

    ...And if it hadn't been won Johnson would never have got anywhere near No !0
    Cummings and Gove would not have won the referendum for Leave, nor would Farage, only Boris got it over 50% and only Boris got the landslide win in 2019 to make Brexit happen
    This is the most bizarre of arguments. It didn't need a landslide to make Brexit happen, Theresa May had already done that. It just needed the clock to run out.
    The margin for BREXIT was so narrow that I think it required *all* of the players on the BREXIT side, *and* all the failures on the remain side, for it to happen.
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,631
    The Labour MP on Politics Live has said nothing yet. She should continue as this is self destruction.

    Whoops as I type she talks.
  • Options
    boulay said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Give it up HY! Boris is done. It's all over.

    Nope, I am now more determined than ever this morning Boris must stay.

    This Cummings coup must be stopped at all costs!
    Labour likes this 👍
    To be honest after the events of the last 24 hours I would almost prefer a PM Starmer than a Cummings puppet as PM if the Cummings coup to topple Boris, our biggest election winner since Thatcher, succeeded.
    I’m assuming you are referring to Sunak as the “Cummings puppet”?

    Wasn’t Sunak supposed to be a No.10 puppet when Javid wouldn’t ditch the approved advisors - I think that anyone who thinks Sunak is their puppet will find he’s more able and independent than they think and not easily “controlled” judging by how he has performed since becoming CotE….
    Sunak was in a strong position when he took it on. Javid resigning put him in an extremely good position as, if the Chief Secretary had gone also, that would have turned a drama into a crisis. I suspect he was canny enough to know that, and ensured on the day that he had the independence Johnson tried to take from Javid.
This discussion has been closed.