I agree. I’m surprised myself how annoyed I am about what seems a comparatively minor transgression in objective terms.
Although as my wife noted this evening it’s their “let them eat cake” moment
It's the 'taking the piss' effect, combined with the cumulative weight of minor transgression upon minor transgression, and the provably true point that we know what the guy at the top of it all things about following rules if you have the connections to avoid them.
It wears everyone down in the end.
I think you are right but are missing the bigger picture. COVID has worn everyone down. Relentlessly, over 2 long, brutal years. Now there is light at the end of the tunnel, folk are starting to process it all. The tsunami of repressed emotion is about to roll. We are only at the point where the sea has retreated. The natural first reaction to trauma is to lash out and find someone to blame. The incompetence and arrogance of this crew (not just Boris) is providing an easy target to foist all the anger, grief, sorrow and frustration onto. Even for the things that weren't necessarily their fault. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch. Could be mid 90"s.
Part of the evil genius of releasing this now.
When you tell a story, people tend to remember the beginning, the memorable intense bit, and the end. People who present for a living use that idea a lot.
If the government had been lucky, the vaccination triumph this time last year would have been the final chapter of the Covid story, and we would have remembered Boris leading us safe to the other side (unlike those poor Europeans). As it is, now looks like being the end of Covid as a big story, and the government could have hoped the story would be them judging it just right. But Someone (with a lah-de-dah Northern accent, one imagines) has covered that with party scandals. That's what we will remember.
Evil, and any minister who held onto the story ought to be toast. But genius.
The trouble for the wannabe successors is that the clown has self destructed too early.
Brexit, as a political cause, is dead. As an administrative inconvenience, it will be with us for decades.
As the administrative inconveniences mount, so the political cause grows.
Brexit is alive and kicking...
We'll need to see rejoin polling at around 65% before a Labour government would have the nerve to try and take us back in. The EU would need to be convinced, too, that we're back in for good.
The only way to lock us in for good (which I agree the EU would want) is to demand euro membership. Would we ever pay that price?
Hmm
It’s a measure of Brexit’s deadness that you are even posing this question.
As it happens, I agree that Rejoin is not at all feasible, let alone euro-membership, but some sort of re-entry into the single market (Swiss style) seems a reasonably likely trajectory.
That will be the next step, to a EEA style deal. Then the realisation that we want a seat at the top table will become the motivating factor for patriotic Tories.
I agree. I’m surprised myself how annoyed I am about what seems a comparatively minor transgression in objective terms.
Although as my wife noted this evening it’s their “let them eat cake” moment
I'm more annoyed at Boris frittering away a great big win, a lot of goodwill, an 80 seat majority, and probably his own job, with a series of such ridiculous unforced errors. Is it Long Covid destroying his brain? These are the actions of a clueless man, which he wasn't before - erratic, but never clueless
He has now ushered in the likelihood of a feeble Starmer-led Coalition government, hijacked by the trouble-making SNP, which is a recipe for more stagnation, division and relative decline. Brilliant, not
He's self-indulgent, doesn't do details and has a limited attention span.
Everyone connected with him knows about his flaws as well as his positive attributes.
In many ways he is like his hero Churchill.
But what Churchill had was an Alanbrooke and that's what Boris lacks.
Why ?
Did he feel he didn't need one ? Did he not want any constraints ? Is everyone else in Westminster some combination of self-serving schemer and fuckwit ?
Hang on. Churchill put in long hours, was fizzing with ideas and took his role and responsibilities with the gravest seriousness.
Are you sure it was ideas he was fizzing with?
Hic.
Churchill used to pore over shipping and production statistics. Can't see Boris doing that.
I agree. I’m surprised myself how annoyed I am about what seems a comparatively minor transgression in objective terms.
Although as my wife noted this evening it’s their “let them eat cake” moment
I'm more annoyed at Boris frittering away a great big win, a lot of goodwill, an 80 seat majority, and probably his own job, with a series of such ridiculous unforced errors. Is it Long Covid destroying his brain? These are the actions of a clueless man, which he wasn't before - erratic, but never clueless
He has now ushered in the likelihood of a feeble Starmer-led Coalition government, hijacked by the trouble-making SNP, which is a recipe for more stagnation, division and relative decline. Brilliant, not
You are in denial, probably because you voted for this.
Boris was always a self-serving, fat fuck who gets off on deceiving people.
Had Boris not won in 2019 however as May failed to do we may now have PM Corbyn in a hung parliament which would be even worse
Brexit, as a political cause, is dead. As an administrative inconvenience, it will be with us for decades.
As the administrative inconveniences mount, so the political cause grows.
Brexit is alive and kicking...
Rejoining the single market, in some form, is certainly still very much alive as a political possibility.
With the year that lies ahead, it could easily be the election winning strategy next time. A Tory party on its game would be working out how to pivot there before Labour makes up its mind.
Candidates announced for the Southend West by election on February 3rd.
Christopher Anderson - Freedom Alliance Catherine Blaiklock - English Democrats Olga Childs - Independent Ben Downton - Heritage Party Anna Firth - Conservative Party Jayda Fransen - Independent Steve Laws - UKIP Graham Moore - English Constitution Party Jason Pilley - Psychedelic Movement https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-59956467
I’m pretty sure that, if I lived in Southend, that would be the one time in my life that I’d vote Tory.
If you'd shown me that list yesterday, I'd have agreed. But something's gone snap in my head tonight about the Conservative Party in general and I'd be avoiding them. Obviously if it was just the Tory or Fascist Fransen on the ballot, I'd definitely vote Conservative, but I reckon there's probably a decent human among the other candidates somewhere.
I agree. I’m surprised myself how annoyed I am about what seems a comparatively minor transgression in objective terms.
Although as my wife noted this evening it’s their “let them eat cake” moment
I'm more annoyed at Boris frittering away a great big win, a lot of goodwill, an 80 seat majority, and probably his own job, with a series of such ridiculous unforced errors. Is it Long Covid destroying his brain? These are the actions of a clueless man, which he wasn't before - erratic, but never clueless
He has now ushered in the likelihood of a feeble Starmer-led Coalition government, hijacked by the trouble-making SNP, which is a recipe for more stagnation, division and relative decline. Brilliant, not
He's self-indulgent, doesn't do details and has a limited attention span.
Everyone connected with him knows about his flaws as well as his positive attributes.
In many ways he is like his hero Churchill.
But what Churchill had was an Alanbrooke and that's what Boris lacks.
Why ?
Did he feel he didn't need one ? Did he not want any constraints ? Is everyone else in Westminster some combination of self-serving schemer and fuckwit ?
"In many ways he is like his hero Churchill."
Name some.
Churchill was a fanatical details man, a masterful orator, a horseman and warrior, a hugely productive and disciplined writer and historian, and a marked non-wanker. He is also not Johnson's hero. Johnson's hero is Johnson, he pretends it is Churchill in the obviously not forlorn hope that exceptionally silly people will see some sort of fantastical resemblance between the two of them.
Was Churchill a fanatical details man ?
I've always had the opposite impression.
Certainly his career went from fuck-up to fuck-up eg Gallipoli and gold standard and the failure of Norway 1940 could be laid at his door as well but fortunately for Churchill brought down Chamberlain instead.
Candidates announced for the Southend West by election on February 3rd.
Christopher Anderson - Freedom Alliance Catherine Blaiklock - English Democrats Olga Childs - Independent Ben Downton - Heritage Party Anna Firth - Conservative Party Jayda Fransen - Independent Steve Laws - UKIP Graham Moore - English Constitution Party Jason Pilley - Psychedelic Movement https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-59956467
There must be a chance the Tories won’t win it, if only it was clear who might be the contender(s) there could be a betting op.
Socially distancing on the govt benches tomorrow? Last time, Rishi had a hall pass and was mooching by the Golden Gate Bridge. Will he be at his PM's side tomorrow?
In 2020 many of the various holidays and feast days fell conveniently on a Friday or on a weekend.
I'm curious as to how that is different to any other year ?
Bank holidays are always on Fridays or Mondays.
I'm thinking of VE Day and Robbie Burns day - which fell on a Saturday, for instance. There were a number of long weekends like that where Daughter had plans for special events etc to maximise revenue. I remember her telling me that she was looking forward to planning all these events because having got her first year under her belt she could really push the boat out in the second.
Alas ....
Thanks.
But Burns Night is in January so wouldn't have been affected by covid in 2020.
An example. Easter was late so better weather. The VE Day weekend - gorgeous weather - could have been a great earner etc. Hospitality people are always looking ahead to plan events, see how to encourage people to come to them etc. and the frustration of seeing a gorgeous spring and early summer be wasted was palpable.
She knew perfectly well that people were drinking in their gardens and probably breaking rules. They could get away with it. But she couldn't. And now we learn that the people at the top were just blatantly ignoring all the rules.
Sure we need to do the right thing regardless. But, really, why if all that happens is that you get shafted and others get the benefits, the juicy contracts, the fat pensions, the opportunities. It is emblematic of an approach which is wrong.
And I - a lawyer who has tried all my life to do the right thing and teach one of the more entitled sectors to do the right thing - now find it increasingly difficult to keep on saying this. It's cynical. It's despairing. It's corrosive. But it's inevitable when those at the top behave in this way.
Candidates announced for the Southend West by election on February 3rd.
Christopher Anderson - Freedom Alliance Catherine Blaiklock - English Democrats Olga Childs - Independent Ben Downton - Heritage Party Anna Firth - Conservative Party Jayda Fransen - Independent Steve Laws - UKIP Graham Moore - English Constitution Party Jason Pilley - Psychedelic Movement https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-59956467
There must be a chance the Tories won’t win it, if only it was clear who might be the contender(s) there could be a betting op.
Jason Pilley is a superb name for the Psychedelic Party candidate.
Candidates announced for the Southend West by election on February 3rd.
Christopher Anderson - Freedom Alliance Catherine Blaiklock - English Democrats Olga Childs - Independent Ben Downton - Heritage Party Anna Firth - Conservative Party Jayda Fransen - Independent Steve Laws - UKIP Graham Moore - English Constitution Party Jason Pilley - Psychedelic Movement https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-59956467
That's Catherine Blaiklock, the co-founder and first leader of The Brexit Party, standing for the English Democrats.
So, anyway, we've got a range of right-wing to far right fringe candidates in the English Democrats, Heritage Party, Fransen the fascist, UKIP and the English Constitution Party. What's Childs' manifesto? Is there anyone for someone left of the Conservative Party to vote for?
I doubt any Tory PM, not just Boris, will impose any more Covid restrictions again. Especially on the vaccinated.
Credibly they could not do so and their supporters and MPs will not allow them to do so. Only way we may get more restrictions in England is a Starmer premiership with Labour having won most seats, which is more likely than not now
What if there were a new variant with vaccine breakthrough and greater severity spreading rapidly? I don't expect that to happen, but it could.
Omicron's main advantage is being able to replicate quickly in the nose and throat so I doubt a more disease causing strain would be able to outcompete it whilst it's merrily going through populations. After it's finished, and people have immunity to Omicron (From having had omicron) I suppose something else might come along and replace it. Unlike alpha and original wuhan we never saw the delta wave particularly go down.
In 2020 many of the various holidays and feast days fell conveniently on a Friday or on a weekend.
I'm curious as to how that is different to any other year ?
Bank holidays are always on Fridays or Mondays.
I'm thinking of VE Day and Robbie Burns day - which fell on a Saturday, for instance. There were a number of long weekends like that where Daughter had plans for special events etc to maximise revenue. I remember her telling me that she was looking forward to planning all these events because having got her first year under her belt she could really push the boat out in the second.
Alas ....
Thanks.
But Burns Night is in January so wouldn't have been affected by covid in 2020.
An example. Easter was late so better weather. The VE Day weekend - gorgeous weather - could have been a great earner etc. Hospitality people are always looking ahead to plan events, see how to encourage people to come to them etc. and the frustration of seeing a gorgeous spring and early summer be wasted was palpable.
She knew perfectly well that people were drinking in their gardens and probably breaking rules. They could get away with it. But she couldn't. And now we learn that the people at the top were just blatantly ignoring all the rules.
Sure we need to do the right thing regardless. But, really, why if all that happens is that you get shafted and others get the benefits, the juicy contracts, the fat pensions, the opportunities. It is emblematic of an approach which is wrong.
And I - a lawyer who has tried all my life to do the right thing and teach one of the more entitled sectors to do the right thing - now find it increasingly difficult to keep on saying this. It's cynical. It's despairing. It's corrosive. But it's inevitable when those at the top behave in this way.
The cynicism at the top isn't an accident at all, or an arrival from nowhere, I would say. It's a kind of smug, ironic nihilism. It's fashionable.
I agree. I’m surprised myself how annoyed I am about what seems a comparatively minor transgression in objective terms.
Although as my wife noted this evening it’s their “let them eat cake” moment
I'm more annoyed at Boris frittering away a great big win, a lot of goodwill, an 80 seat majority, and probably his own job, with a series of such ridiculous unforced errors. Is it Long Covid destroying his brain? These are the actions of a clueless man, which he wasn't before - erratic, but never clueless
He has now ushered in the likelihood of a feeble Starmer-led Coalition government, hijacked by the trouble-making SNP, which is a recipe for more stagnation, division and relative decline. Brilliant, not
He's self-indulgent, doesn't do details and has a limited attention span.
Everyone connected with him knows about his flaws as well as his positive attributes.
In many ways he is like his hero Churchill.
But what Churchill had was an Alanbrooke and that's what Boris lacks.
Why ?
Did he feel he didn't need one ? Did he not want any constraints ? Is everyone else in Westminster some combination of self-serving schemer and fuckwit ?
"In many ways he is like his hero Churchill."
Name some.
Churchill was a fanatical details man, a masterful orator, a horseman and warrior, a hugely productive and disciplined writer and historian, and a marked non-wanker. He is also not Johnson's hero. Johnson's hero is Johnson, he pretends it is Churchill in the obviously not forlorn hope that exceptionally silly people will see some sort of fantastical resemblance between the two of them.
Was Churchill a fanatical details man ?
I've always had the opposite impression.
Certainly his career went from fuck-up to fuck-up eg Gallipoli and gold standard and the failure of Norway 1940 could be laid at his door as well but fortunately for Churchill brought down Chamberlain instead.
Churchill had successes and he had failures. I wonder whether the Bengal famine was the former or the latter.
Candidates announced for the Southend West by election on February 3rd.
Christopher Anderson - Freedom Alliance Catherine Blaiklock - English Democrats Olga Childs - Independent Ben Downton - Heritage Party Anna Firth - Conservative Party Jayda Fransen - Independent Steve Laws - UKIP Graham Moore - English Constitution Party Jason Pilley - Psychedelic Movement https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-59956467
I’m pretty sure that, if I lived in Southend, that would be the one time in my life that I’d vote Tory.
If you'd shown me that list yesterday, I'd have agreed. But something's gone snap in my head tonight about the Conservative Party in general and I'd be avoiding them. Obviously if it was just the Tory or Fascist Fransen on the ballot, I'd definitely vote Conservative, but I reckon there's probably a decent human among the other candidates somewhere.
Honestly, I wish I could agree with you, but every other candidate is somewhere in the space between UKIP and crypto-fascist. Google them. Or don’t. Actually, don’t.
I agree. I’m surprised myself how annoyed I am about what seems a comparatively minor transgression in objective terms.
Although as my wife noted this evening it’s their “let them eat cake” moment
I'm more annoyed at Boris frittering away a great big win, a lot of goodwill, an 80 seat majority, and probably his own job, with a series of such ridiculous unforced errors. Is it Long Covid destroying his brain? These are the actions of a clueless man, which he wasn't before - erratic, but never clueless
He has now ushered in the likelihood of a feeble Starmer-led Coalition government, hijacked by the trouble-making SNP, which is a recipe for more stagnation, division and relative decline. Brilliant, not
He's self-indulgent, doesn't do details and has a limited attention span.
Everyone connected with him knows about his flaws as well as his positive attributes.
In many ways he is like his hero Churchill.
But what Churchill had was an Alanbrooke and that's what Boris lacks.
Why ?
Did he feel he didn't need one ? Did he not want any constraints ? Is everyone else in Westminster some combination of self-serving schemer and fuckwit ?
"In many ways he is like his hero Churchill."
Name some.
Churchill was a fanatical details man, a masterful orator, a horseman and warrior, a hugely productive and disciplined writer and historian, and a marked non-wanker. He is also not Johnson's hero. Johnson's hero is Johnson, he pretends it is Churchill in the obviously not forlorn hope that exceptionally silly people will see some sort of fantastical resemblance between the two of them.
Was Churchill a fanatical details man ?
I've always had the opposite impression.
Certainly his career went from fuck-up to fuck-up eg Gallipoli and gold standard and the failure of Norway 1940 could be laid at his door as well but fortunately for Churchill brought down Chamberlain instead.
"The grenade had several faults with its design. In tests, it failed to adhere to dusty or muddy tanks and if the user was not careful after freeing the grenade from its casing, it could easily stick to their uniform. The Ordnance Board of the War Department did not approve the grenade for use by the British Army, but intervention by the prime minister, Winston Churchill, led to the grenade going into production. Between 1940 and 1943, approximately 2.5 million were produced. It was primarily issued to the Home Guard but was also used by British and Commonwealth forces in North Africa, accounting for six German tanks. It was used by Allied Forces on the Anzio Beachhead, including the First Special Service Force; as well as by Australian Army units during the New Guinea campaign. The French Resistance were also issued a quantity of the grenades."
I call that fanatical attention to detail, Boris would have left the decision to the Minister for Bombs (which would actually be the correct course of action).
In 2020 many of the various holidays and feast days fell conveniently on a Friday or on a weekend.
I'm curious as to how that is different to any other year ?
Bank holidays are always on Fridays or Mondays.
I'm thinking of VE Day and Robbie Burns day - which fell on a Saturday, for instance. There were a number of long weekends like that where Daughter had plans for special events etc to maximise revenue. I remember her telling me that she was looking forward to planning all these events because having got her first year under her belt she could really push the boat out in the second.
Alas ....
Thanks.
But Burns Night is in January so wouldn't have been affected by covid in 2020.
An example. Easter was late so better weather. The VE Day weekend - gorgeous weather - could have been a great earner etc. Hospitality people are always looking ahead to plan events, see how to encourage people to come to them etc. and the frustration of seeing a gorgeous spring and early summer be wasted was palpable.
She knew perfectly well that people were drinking in their gardens and probably breaking rules. They could get away with it. But she couldn't. And now we learn that the people at the top were just blatantly ignoring all the rules.
Sure we need to do the right thing regardless. But, really, why if all that happens is that you get shafted and others get the benefits, the juicy contracts, the fat pensions, the opportunities. It is emblematic of an approach which is wrong.
And I - a lawyer who has tried all my life to do the right thing and teach one of the more entitled sectors to do the right thing - now find it increasingly difficult to keep on saying this. It's cynical. It's despairing. It's corrosive. But it's inevitable when those at the top behave in this way.
The irony is that doing the right thing was the right thing to do for Boris and his gang.
And that they couldn't get away with breaking all the rules.
Ditto for Hancock and Patterson.
If there's one thing people in Westminster should learn is that they need to consider the consequences of doing the wrong thing.
A metaphor for being allowed out of your normal duties. From the US school system where to be found outside of the classroom required you to have a pass issued by a teacher.
Starmer should call Johnson a liar tomorrow at PMQs and see if the speaker dares demand he leaves the Commons.
Either way he wins. The public still has the story in the news.
Top tip to SKS
Ask the same question six times. Was the PM at the party? ETA whip all your MPs to ask the same question too if called, and make a pact with Blackers to ask the same q 3 times too.
Candidates announced for the Southend West by election on February 3rd.
Christopher Anderson - Freedom Alliance Catherine Blaiklock - English Democrats Olga Childs - Independent Ben Downton - Heritage Party Anna Firth - Conservative Party Jayda Fransen - Independent Steve Laws - UKIP Graham Moore - English Constitution Party Jason Pilley - Psychedelic Movement https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-59956467
I’m pretty sure that, if I lived in Southend, that would be the one time in my life that I’d vote Tory.
If you'd shown me that list yesterday, I'd have agreed. But something's gone snap in my head tonight about the Conservative Party in general and I'd be avoiding them. Obviously if it was just the Tory or Fascist Fransen on the ballot, I'd definitely vote Conservative, but I reckon there's probably a decent human among the other candidates somewhere.
Honestly, I wish I could agree with you, but every other candidate is somewhere in the space between UKIP and crypto-fascist. Google them. Or don’t. Actually, don’t.
All of them? I googled a few and thought yeah, no thanks. But I didn't complete the task.
Brexit, as a political cause, is dead. As an administrative inconvenience, it will be with us for decades.
As the administrative inconveniences mount, so the political cause grows.
Brexit is alive and kicking...
We'll need to see rejoin polling at around 65% before a Labour government would have the nerve to try and take us back in. The EU would need to be convinced, too, that we're back in for good.
The only way to lock us in for good (which I agree the EU would want) is to demand euro membership. Would we ever pay that price?
Hmm
It’s a measure of Brexit’s deadness that you are even posing this question.
As it happens, I agree that Rejoin is not at all feasible, let alone euro-membership, but some sort of re-entry into the single market (Swiss style) seems a reasonably likely trajectory.
That will be the next step, to a EEA style deal. Then the realisation that we want a seat at the top table will become the motivating factor for patriotic Tories.
More wishful thinking Foxy. EEA or EFTA is certainly a possibility if, sadly, only a distant one. But rejoining seems to me to be a complete impossibility. Both the UK and the EU will have changed in ways that will make it unpalatable to both sides.
I agree. I’m surprised myself how annoyed I am about what seems a comparatively minor transgression in objective terms.
Although as my wife noted this evening it’s their “let them eat cake” moment
I'm more annoyed at Boris frittering away a great big win, a lot of goodwill, an 80 seat majority, and probably his own job, with a series of such ridiculous unforced errors. Is it Long Covid destroying his brain? These are the actions of a clueless man, which he wasn't before - erratic, but never clueless
He has now ushered in the likelihood of a feeble Starmer-led Coalition government, hijacked by the trouble-making SNP, which is a recipe for more stagnation, division and relative decline. Brilliant, not
He's self-indulgent, doesn't do details and has a limited attention span.
Everyone connected with him knows about his flaws as well as his positive attributes.
In many ways he is like his hero Churchill.
But what Churchill had was an Alanbrooke and that's what Boris lacks.
Why ?
Did he feel he didn't need one ? Did he not want any constraints ? Is everyone else in Westminster some combination of self-serving schemer and fuckwit ?
"In many ways he is like his hero Churchill."
Name some.
Churchill was a fanatical details man, a masterful orator, a horseman and warrior, a hugely productive and disciplined writer and historian, and a marked non-wanker. He is also not Johnson's hero. Johnson's hero is Johnson, he pretends it is Churchill in the obviously not forlorn hope that exceptionally silly people will see some sort of fantastical resemblance between the two of them.
Was Churchill a fanatical details man ?
I've always had the opposite impression.
Certainly his career went from fuck-up to fuck-up eg Gallipoli and gold standard and the failure of Norway 1940 could be laid at his door as well but fortunately for Churchill brought down Chamberlain instead.
"The grenade had several faults with its design. In tests, it failed to adhere to dusty or muddy tanks and if the user was not careful after freeing the grenade from its casing, it could easily stick to their uniform. The Ordnance Board of the War Department did not approve the grenade for use by the British Army, but intervention by the prime minister, Winston Churchill, led to the grenade going into production. Between 1940 and 1943, approximately 2.5 million were produced. It was primarily issued to the Home Guard but was also used by British and Commonwealth forces in North Africa, accounting for six German tanks. It was used by Allied Forces on the Anzio Beachhead, including the First Special Service Force; as well as by Australian Army units during the New Guinea campaign. The French Resistance were also issued a quantity of the grenades."
I call that fanatical attention to detail, Boris would have left the decision to the Minister for Bombs (which would actually be the correct course of action).
But wasn't that a case of enthusiastic meddling by Churchill ?
Which in that case may have been successful.
I'm sure Churchill did plenty of enthusiastic meddling which turned out to be rather less successful. For example:
Starmer should call Johnson a liar tomorrow at PMQs and see if the speaker dares demand he leaves the Commons.
Either way he wins. The public still has the story in the news.
Top tip to SKS
Ask the same question six times. Was the PM at the party? ETA whip all your MPs to ask the same question too if called, and make a pact with Blackers to ask the same q 3 times too.
Rather than asking him if he was there try asking him who else was at the party with him. If he is not quick on his feet he could get himself in an awful mess.
Brexit, as a political cause, is dead. As an administrative inconvenience, it will be with us for decades.
As the administrative inconveniences mount, so the political cause grows.
Brexit is alive and kicking...
We'll need to see rejoin polling at around 65% before a Labour government would have the nerve to try and take us back in. The EU would need to be convinced, too, that we're back in for good.
The only way to lock us in for good (which I agree the EU would want) is to demand euro membership. Would we ever pay that price?
Hmm
It’s a measure of Brexit’s deadness that you are even posing this question.
As it happens, I agree that Rejoin is not at all feasible, let alone euro-membership, but some sort of re-entry into the single market (Swiss style) seems a reasonably likely trajectory.
That will be the next step, to a EEA style deal. Then the realisation that we want a seat at the top table will become the motivating factor for patriotic Tories.
More wishful thinking Foxy. EEA or EFTA is certainly a possibility if, sadly, only a distant one. But rejoining seems to me to be a complete impossibility. Both the UK and the EU will have changed in ways that will make it unpalatable to both sides.
I think it's more likely than not that Britain will be back in the EEA in some form in the next decade. Full rejoining, on the other hand, looks very unlikely to me, for now.
Candidates announced for the Southend West by election on February 3rd.
Christopher Anderson - Freedom Alliance Catherine Blaiklock - English Democrats Olga Childs - Independent Ben Downton - Heritage Party Anna Firth - Conservative Party Jayda Fransen - Independent Steve Laws - UKIP Graham Moore - English Constitution Party Jason Pilley - Psychedelic Movement https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-59956467
There must be a chance the Tories won’t win it, if only it was clear who might be the contender(s) there could be a betting op.
UKIP is clearly the most well known party of the non Tory candidates.
UKIP got 17.5% in Southend West in 2015, on a very low turnout not impossible UKIP could win it though Firth should scrape home.
If the Tories managed to lose Southend West however when they did not even face a Labour or LD candidate, I would imagine the letters would rise to an avalanche on Sir Graham's desk and there would be a VONC within a week
Brexit, as a political cause, is dead. As an administrative inconvenience, it will be with us for decades.
As the administrative inconveniences mount, so the political cause grows.
Brexit is alive and kicking...
We'll need to see rejoin polling at around 65% before a Labour government would have the nerve to try and take us back in. The EU would need to be convinced, too, that we're back in for good.
The only way to lock us in for good (which I agree the EU would want) is to demand euro membership. Would we ever pay that price?
Hmm
It’s a measure of Brexit’s deadness that you are even posing this question.
As it happens, I agree that Rejoin is not at all feasible, let alone euro-membership, but some sort of re-entry into the single market (Swiss style) seems a reasonably likely trajectory.
That will be the next step, to a EEA style deal. Then the realisation that we want a seat at the top table will become the motivating factor for patriotic Tories.
More wishful thinking Foxy. EEA or EFTA is certainly a possibility if, sadly, only a distant one. But rejoining seems to me to be a complete impossibility. Both the UK and the EU will have changed in ways that will make it unpalatable to both sides.
I think it's more likely than not that Britain will be back in the EEA in some form in the next decade. Full rejoining, on the other hand, looks very unlikely to me, for now.
It is the great trap for Rejoiners. If we are back in the EEA it becomes much harder to argue for all the political rubbish of full membership because we have the Single Market benefits.
Does anyone know how many tests per day France and Italy are currently doing ?
AIUI the UK deaths within 28 days of a covid infection was used as at 28 days the deaths after 28 from covid would roughly equal the deaths within 28 days which weren't from the covid infection.
But now with Omicron increasing infection numbers but being much less dangerous doesn't that mean the deaths within 28 days of an infection measure is no longer appropriate ?
Brexit, as a political cause, is dead. As an administrative inconvenience, it will be with us for decades.
As the administrative inconveniences mount, so the political cause grows.
Brexit is alive and kicking...
We'll need to see rejoin polling at around 65% before a Labour government would have the nerve to try and take us back in. The EU would need to be convinced, too, that we're back in for good.
The only way to lock us in for good (which I agree the EU would want) is to demand euro membership. Would we ever pay that price?
Hmm
It’s a measure of Brexit’s deadness that you are even posing this question.
As it happens, I agree that Rejoin is not at all feasible, let alone euro-membership, but some sort of re-entry into the single market (Swiss style) seems a reasonably likely trajectory.
That will be the next step, to a EEA style deal. Then the realisation that we want a seat at the top table will become the motivating factor for patriotic Tories.
More wishful thinking Foxy. EEA or EFTA is certainly a possibility if, sadly, only a distant one. But rejoining seems to me to be a complete impossibility. Both the UK and the EU will have changed in ways that will make it unpalatable to both sides.
I think it's more likely than not that Britain will be back in the EEA in some form in the next decade. Full rejoining, on the other hand, looks very unlikely to me, for now.
The issue with the EEA however remains free movement, especially in the redwall, which the current points system avoids
Brexit, as a political cause, is dead. As an administrative inconvenience, it will be with us for decades.
As the administrative inconveniences mount, so the political cause grows.
Brexit is alive and kicking...
We'll need to see rejoin polling at around 65% before a Labour government would have the nerve to try and take us back in. The EU would need to be convinced, too, that we're back in for good.
The only way to lock us in for good (which I agree the EU would want) is to demand euro membership. Would we ever pay that price?
Hmm
It’s a measure of Brexit’s deadness that you are even posing this question.
As it happens, I agree that Rejoin is not at all feasible, let alone euro-membership, but some sort of re-entry into the single market (Swiss style) seems a reasonably likely trajectory.
That will be the next step, to a EEA style deal. Then the realisation that we want a seat at the top table will become the motivating factor for patriotic Tories.
More wishful thinking Foxy. EEA or EFTA is certainly a possibility if, sadly, only a distant one. But rejoining seems to me to be a complete impossibility. Both the UK and the EU will have changed in ways that will make it unpalatable to both sides.
I think it's more likely than not that Britain will be back in the EEA in some form in the next decade. Full rejoining, on the other hand, looks very unlikely to me, for now.
It is the great trap for Rejoiners. If we are back in the EEA it becomes much harder to argue for all the political rubbish of full membership because we have the Single Market benefits.
Conversely there will be the argument about being the rule-takers without being the rule-makers. In the eyes of some this will discredit Brexit even further, but others will think much more along the Iines you mention. I still think it will probably happen, though, overall, without full rejoining.
The big question will then be how the immigration aspect is sold back.
Starmer should call Johnson a liar tomorrow at PMQs and see if the speaker dares demand he leaves the Commons.
Either way he wins. The public still has the story in the news.
Top tip to SKS
Ask the same question six times. Was the PM at the party? ETA whip all your MPs to ask the same question too if called, and make a pact with Blackers to ask the same q 3 times too.
Perhaps some opposition mps will bring their own bottles and wave them about, though I'm sure it would break a multitude of HoC rules. Perhaps a cardboard cutout of such? Dennis Skinner would have been your man for the task.
I agree. I’m surprised myself how annoyed I am about what seems a comparatively minor transgression in objective terms.
Although as my wife noted this evening it’s their “let them eat cake” moment
I'm more annoyed at Boris frittering away a great big win, a lot of goodwill, an 80 seat majority, and probably his own job, with a series of such ridiculous unforced errors. Is it Long Covid destroying his brain? These are the actions of a clueless man, which he wasn't before - erratic, but never clueless
He has now ushered in the likelihood of a feeble Starmer-led Coalition government, hijacked by the trouble-making SNP, which is a recipe for more stagnation, division and relative decline. Brilliant, not
He's self-indulgent, doesn't do details and has a limited attention span.
Everyone connected with him knows about his flaws as well as his positive attributes.
In many ways he is like his hero Churchill.
But what Churchill had was an Alanbrooke and that's what Boris lacks.
Why ?
Did he feel he didn't need one ? Did he not want any constraints ? Is everyone else in Westminster some combination of self-serving schemer and fuckwit ?
"In many ways he is like his hero Churchill."
Name some.
Churchill was a fanatical details man, a masterful orator, a horseman and warrior, a hugely productive and disciplined writer and historian, and a marked non-wanker. He is also not Johnson's hero. Johnson's hero is Johnson, he pretends it is Churchill in the obviously not forlorn hope that exceptionally silly people will see some sort of fantastical resemblance between the two of them.
Was Churchill a fanatical details man ?
I've always had the opposite impression.
Certainly his career went from fuck-up to fuck-up eg Gallipoli and gold standard and the failure of Norway 1940 could be laid at his door as well but fortunately for Churchill brought down Chamberlain instead.
"The grenade had several faults with its design. In tests, it failed to adhere to dusty or muddy tanks and if the user was not careful after freeing the grenade from its casing, it could easily stick to their uniform. The Ordnance Board of the War Department did not approve the grenade for use by the British Army, but intervention by the prime minister, Winston Churchill, led to the grenade going into production. Between 1940 and 1943, approximately 2.5 million were produced. It was primarily issued to the Home Guard but was also used by British and Commonwealth forces in North Africa, accounting for six German tanks. It was used by Allied Forces on the Anzio Beachhead, including the First Special Service Force; as well as by Australian Army units during the New Guinea campaign. The French Resistance were also issued a quantity of the grenades."
I call that fanatical attention to detail, Boris would have left the decision to the Minister for Bombs (which would actually be the correct course of action).
But wasn't that a case of enthusiastic meddling by Churchill ?
Which in that case may have been successful.
I'm sure Churchill did plenty of enthusiastic meddling which turned out to be rather less successful. For example:
In 2020 many of the various holidays and feast days fell conveniently on a Friday or on a weekend.
I'm curious as to how that is different to any other year ?
Bank holidays are always on Fridays or Mondays.
I'm thinking of VE Day and Robbie Burns day - which fell on a Saturday, for instance. There were a number of long weekends like that where Daughter had plans for special events etc to maximise revenue. I remember her telling me that she was looking forward to planning all these events because having got her first year under her belt she could really push the boat out in the second.
Alas ....
Thanks.
But Burns Night is in January so wouldn't have been affected by covid in 2020.
An example. Easter was late so better weather. The VE Day weekend - gorgeous weather - could have been a great earner etc. Hospitality people are always looking ahead to plan events, see how to encourage people to come to them etc. and the frustration of seeing a gorgeous spring and early summer be wasted was palpable.
She knew perfectly well that people were drinking in their gardens and probably breaking rules. They could get away with it. But she couldn't. And now we learn that the people at the top were just blatantly ignoring all the rules.
Sure we need to do the right thing regardless. But, really, why if all that happens is that you get shafted and others get the benefits, the juicy contracts, the fat pensions, the opportunities. It is emblematic of an approach which is wrong.
And I - a lawyer who has tried all my life to do the right thing and teach one of the more entitled sectors to do the right thing - now find it increasingly difficult to keep on saying this. It's cynical. It's despairing. It's corrosive. But it's inevitable when those at the top behave in this way.
May I respond to your header? While I agree with much of it, I'm bothered by your penultimate paragraph:
What I care about that is that the one lesson to be taken from all this is this: in this country right now you’re a mug if you try and do the right thing. You just get taken for a fool. Your hard work doesn’t matter. Your sacrifices don’t matter. When all the fuss has died down, when these here today/gone tomorrow politicians have departed the stage, this is what will be remembered. Why trust any replacement? They will do the same, probably have done the same, it’s just we have yet to find out about it.
If I may say so, this is the politics of despair. You're saying "they're all the same", but I think this cynicism is corrosive. I really don't believe they're all the same. Boris is a one-off in this country. Under different governance, 'doing the right thing' would reap rewards. What you're saying is not too far removed from the mantra that all politicians (and by extension governments) are corrupt and self-serving. I don't believe this to be the case, and such beliefs can lead down a sticky path where faith in democracy is undermined, as is possibly evident in the USA.
Starmer should call Johnson a liar tomorrow at PMQs and see if the speaker dares demand he leaves the Commons.
Either way he wins. The public still has the story in the news.
Top tip to SKS
Ask the same question six times. Was the PM at the party? ETA whip all your MPs to ask the same question too if called, and make a pact with Blackers to ask the same q 3 times too.
I can’t agree with you Z. That’s nonsense. SKS must ask two questions on cladding, two on government VAT windfall on energy bills (even my math understand 6% of lots more is lots more) and two on smart motorways.
The only time Starmer has been listened to or taken remotely seriously is in the last couple of months, why on earth should he want the reason for that to so quickly resign or be vonked? The opposition parties are not on the side of anyone wanting a swift finish to this Conservative Party crisis.
Richard Frediani @BBCFrediani · 1h Still waiting to find out if a Minister will turn out for the Government at 7.30am on #BBCBreakfast on Wednesday? Lots of questions about Downing Street parties. The chair is waiting to be filled… Labour’s @AngelaRayner and Lib Dem leader @EdwardJDavey already confirmed.
Brexit, as a political cause, is dead. As an administrative inconvenience, it will be with us for decades.
As the administrative inconveniences mount, so the political cause grows.
Brexit is alive and kicking...
We'll need to see rejoin polling at around 65% before a Labour government would have the nerve to try and take us back in. The EU would need to be convinced, too, that we're back in for good.
The only way to lock us in for good (which I agree the EU would want) is to demand euro membership. Would we ever pay that price?
Hmm
It’s a measure of Brexit’s deadness that you are even posing this question.
As it happens, I agree that Rejoin is not at all feasible, let alone euro-membership, but some sort of re-entry into the single market (Swiss style) seems a reasonably likely trajectory.
That will be the next step, to a EEA style deal. Then the realisation that we want a seat at the top table will become the motivating factor for patriotic Tories.
More wishful thinking Foxy. EEA or EFTA is certainly a possibility if, sadly, only a distant one. But rejoining seems to me to be a complete impossibility. Both the UK and the EU will have changed in ways that will make it unpalatable to both sides.
I think it's more likely than not that Britain will be back in the EEA in some form in the next decade. Full rejoining, on the other hand, looks very unlikely to me, for now.
It is the great trap for Rejoiners. If we are back in the EEA it becomes much harder to argue for all the political rubbish of full membership because we have the Single Market benefits.
Doesn't EEA come with Free Movement? That's the Big Red Line for both sides
Now we are out and have (sort of) control of our borders, I cannot see a UK government agreeing to give that up. Or risk the wrath of the voters as migration explodes from Eastern Europe again
So it would take some compromise on FoM from the EU, but they don't seem willing or likely to do that, either (and fair enough)
Christopher HopeMemo @christopherhope NEW Strong rumours in Parliament from two Government sources tonight that Boris Johnson will make some sort of statement tomorrow lunchtime about partygate just before Prime Minister's Questions.
Candidates announced for the Southend West by election on February 3rd.
Christopher Anderson - Freedom Alliance Catherine Blaiklock - English Democrats Olga Childs - Independent Ben Downton - Heritage Party Anna Firth - Conservative Party Jayda Fransen - Independent Steve Laws - UKIP Graham Moore - English Constitution Party Jason Pilley - Psychedelic Movement https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-59956467
There must be a chance the Tories won’t win it, if only it was clear who might be the contender(s) there could be a betting op.
Jason Pilley opposes selling energy drinks to children and supports revitalising British high streets. So the Psychedelic Movement are making a clear pitch for hard-working families.
Brexit, as a political cause, is dead. As an administrative inconvenience, it will be with us for decades.
As the administrative inconveniences mount, so the political cause grows.
Brexit is alive and kicking...
We'll need to see rejoin polling at around 65% before a Labour government would have the nerve to try and take us back in. The EU would need to be convinced, too, that we're back in for good.
The only way to lock us in for good (which I agree the EU would want) is to demand euro membership. Would we ever pay that price?
Hmm
It’s a measure of Brexit’s deadness that you are even posing this question.
As it happens, I agree that Rejoin is not at all feasible, let alone euro-membership, but some sort of re-entry into the single market (Swiss style) seems a reasonably likely trajectory.
That will be the next step, to a EEA style deal. Then the realisation that we want a seat at the top table will become the motivating factor for patriotic Tories.
More wishful thinking Foxy. EEA or EFTA is certainly a possibility if, sadly, only a distant one. But rejoining seems to me to be a complete impossibility. Both the UK and the EU will have changed in ways that will make it unpalatable to both sides.
I think it's more likely than not that Britain will be back in the EEA in some form in the next decade. Full rejoining, on the other hand, looks very unlikely to me, for now.
It is the great trap for Rejoiners. If we are back in the EEA it becomes much harder to argue for all the political rubbish of full membership because we have the Single Market benefits.
As a Rejoiner, EEA membership has always rather cynically appealed to me.
As you say, all the Single Market benefits, but the rules are set by the grown-ups in Brussels rather than the halfwits in Westminster.
Works for me. As a centre-left voter in a rural constituency, it’s not like my vote ever counts for anything, so I’d hardly feel disenfranchised - to the contrary, on average the European polity will be closer to my views than the British one.
Brexit, as a political cause, is dead. As an administrative inconvenience, it will be with us for decades.
As the administrative inconveniences mount, so the political cause grows.
Brexit is alive and kicking...
We'll need to see rejoin polling at around 65% before a Labour government would have the nerve to try and take us back in. The EU would need to be convinced, too, that we're back in for good.
The only way to lock us in for good (which I agree the EU would want) is to demand euro membership. Would we ever pay that price?
Hmm
It’s a measure of Brexit’s deadness that you are even posing this question.
As it happens, I agree that Rejoin is not at all feasible, let alone euro-membership, but some sort of re-entry into the single market (Swiss style) seems a reasonably likely trajectory.
That will be the next step, to a EEA style deal. Then the realisation that we want a seat at the top table will become the motivating factor for patriotic Tories.
More wishful thinking Foxy. EEA or EFTA is certainly a possibility if, sadly, only a distant one. But rejoining seems to me to be a complete impossibility. Both the UK and the EU will have changed in ways that will make it unpalatable to both sides.
I think it's more likely than not that Britain will be back in the EEA in some form in the next decade. Full rejoining, on the other hand, looks very unlikely to me, for now.
It is the great trap for Rejoiners. If we are back in the EEA it becomes much harder to argue for all the political rubbish of full membership because we have the Single Market benefits.
Doesn't EEA come with Free Movement? That's the Big Red Line for both sides
Now we are out and have (sort of) control of our borders, I cannot see a UK government agreeing to give that up. Or risk the wrath of the voters as migration explodes from Eastern Europe again
So it would take some compromise on FoM from the EU, but they don't seem willing or likely to do that, either (and fair enough)
In 2020 many of the various holidays and feast days fell conveniently on a Friday or on a weekend.
I'm curious as to how that is different to any other year ?
Bank holidays are always on Fridays or Mondays.
I'm thinking of VE Day and Robbie Burns day - which fell on a Saturday, for instance. There were a number of long weekends like that where Daughter had plans for special events etc to maximise revenue. I remember her telling me that she was looking forward to planning all these events because having got her first year under her belt she could really push the boat out in the second.
Alas ....
Thanks.
But Burns Night is in January so wouldn't have been affected by covid in 2020.
An example. Easter was late so better weather. The VE Day weekend - gorgeous weather - could have been a great earner etc. Hospitality people are always looking ahead to plan events, see how to encourage people to come to them etc. and the frustration of seeing a gorgeous spring and early summer be wasted was palpable.
She knew perfectly well that people were drinking in their gardens and probably breaking rules. They could get away with it. But she couldn't. And now we learn that the people at the top were just blatantly ignoring all the rules.
Sure we need to do the right thing regardless. But, really, why if all that happens is that you get shafted and others get the benefits, the juicy contracts, the fat pensions, the opportunities. It is emblematic of an approach which is wrong.
And I - a lawyer who has tried all my life to do the right thing and teach one of the more entitled sectors to do the right thing - now find it increasingly difficult to keep on saying this. It's cynical. It's despairing. It's corrosive. But it's inevitable when those at the top behave in this way.
May I respond to your header? While I agree with much of it, I'm bothered by your penultimate paragraph:
What I care about that is that the one lesson to be taken from all this is this: in this country right now you’re a mug if you try and do the right thing. You just get taken for a fool. Your hard work doesn’t matter. Your sacrifices don’t matter. When all the fuss has died down, when these here today/gone tomorrow politicians have departed the stage, this is what will be remembered. Why trust any replacement? They will do the same, probably have done the same, it’s just we have yet to find out about it.
If I may say so, this is the politics of despair. You're saying "they're all the same", but I think this cynicism is corrosive. I really don't believe they're all the same. Boris is a one-off in this country. Under different governance, 'doing the right thing' would reap rewards. What you're saying is not too far removed from the mantra that all politicians (and by extension governments) are corrupt and self-serving. I don't believe this to be the case, and such beliefs can lead down a sticky path where faith in democracy is undermined, as is possibly evident in the USA.
The qualification there is “in this country right now”. I don’t believe for a moment that Cyclefree is advocating a politics of despair - rather pointing out that that’s where this government is taking us.
If Johnson remains in power, then it’s not just a “one-off” politician, it’s his entire party.
Candidates announced for the Southend West by election on February 3rd.
Christopher Anderson - Freedom Alliance Catherine Blaiklock - English Democrats Olga Childs - Independent Ben Downton - Heritage Party Anna Firth - Conservative Party Jayda Fransen - Independent Steve Laws - UKIP Graham Moore - English Constitution Party Jason Pilley - Psychedelic Movement https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-59956467
That's Catherine Blaiklock, the co-founder and first leader of The Brexit Party, standing for the English Democrats.
So, anyway, we've got a range of right-wing to far right fringe candidates in the English Democrats, Heritage Party, Fransen the fascist, UKIP and the English Constitution Party. What's Childs' manifesto? Is there anyone for someone left of the Conservative Party to vote for?
Will be interesting to see if the Tories do better than Tracey Brabin did in 2016, seems quite likely they could get 90%+ and turnout could go easily below 20%.
I now definitely think it was an error in hindsight for the main opposition parties not to fight the Batley and Spen 2016 and this by election. The precedent will be difficult to be reverse in future if similar atrocities.
I think Labour could have managed 35%+ if it was a normal by election in the current circumstances.
2000+ deaths in the US today, so far (293 in NY alone). This wave will probably be their second biggest, in terms of daily deaths, but shorter than the others
The bug is in retreat, but it is far from finished?
Brexit, as a political cause, is dead. As an administrative inconvenience, it will be with us for decades.
As the administrative inconveniences mount, so the political cause grows.
Brexit is alive and kicking...
We'll need to see rejoin polling at around 65% before a Labour government would have the nerve to try and take us back in. The EU would need to be convinced, too, that we're back in for good.
The only way to lock us in for good (which I agree the EU would want) is to demand euro membership. Would we ever pay that price?
Hmm
It’s a measure of Brexit’s deadness that you are even posing this question.
As it happens, I agree that Rejoin is not at all feasible, let alone euro-membership, but some sort of re-entry into the single market (Swiss style) seems a reasonably likely trajectory.
That will be the next step, to a EEA style deal. Then the realisation that we want a seat at the top table will become the motivating factor for patriotic Tories.
More wishful thinking Foxy. EEA or EFTA is certainly a possibility if, sadly, only a distant one. But rejoining seems to me to be a complete impossibility. Both the UK and the EU will have changed in ways that will make it unpalatable to both sides.
I think it's more likely than not that Britain will be back in the EEA in some form in the next decade. Full rejoining, on the other hand, looks very unlikely to me, for now.
It is the great trap for Rejoiners. If we are back in the EEA it becomes much harder to argue for all the political rubbish of full membership because we have the Single Market benefits.
Doesn't EEA come with Free Movement? That's the Big Red Line for both sides
Now we are out and have (sort of) control of our borders, I cannot see a UK government agreeing to give that up. Or risk the wrath of the voters as migration explodes from Eastern Europe again
So it would take some compromise on FoM from the EU, but they don't seem willing or likely to do that, either (and fair enough)
Brexit, as a political cause, is dead. As an administrative inconvenience, it will be with us for decades.
As the administrative inconveniences mount, so the political cause grows.
Brexit is alive and kicking...
We'll need to see rejoin polling at around 65% before a Labour government would have the nerve to try and take us back in. The EU would need to be convinced, too, that we're back in for good.
The only way to lock us in for good (which I agree the EU would want) is to demand euro membership. Would we ever pay that price?
Hmm
It’s a measure of Brexit’s deadness that you are even posing this question.
As it happens, I agree that Rejoin is not at all feasible, let alone euro-membership, but some sort of re-entry into the single market (Swiss style) seems a reasonably likely trajectory.
That will be the next step, to a EEA style deal. Then the realisation that we want a seat at the top table will become the motivating factor for patriotic Tories.
More wishful thinking Foxy. EEA or EFTA is certainly a possibility if, sadly, only a distant one. But rejoining seems to me to be a complete impossibility. Both the UK and the EU will have changed in ways that will make it unpalatable to both sides.
I think it's more likely than not that Britain will be back in the EEA in some form in the next decade. Full rejoining, on the other hand, looks very unlikely to me, for now.
It is the great trap for Rejoiners. If we are back in the EEA it becomes much harder to argue for all the political rubbish of full membership because we have the Single Market benefits.
Doesn't EEA come with Free Movement? That's the Big Red Line for both sides
Now we are out and have (sort of) control of our borders, I cannot see a UK government agreeing to give that up. Or risk the wrath of the voters as migration explodes from Eastern Europe again
So it would take some compromise on FoM from the EU, but they don't seem willing or likely to do that, either (and fair enough)
We have less control of our borders than before.
That's really not true. The optics in the Channel are bad (and Tory failure to solve it is lamentable and spineless) but these people constitute less than 10% of net migration
Candidates announced for the Southend West by election on February 3rd.
Christopher Anderson - Freedom Alliance Catherine Blaiklock - English Democrats Olga Childs - Independent Ben Downton - Heritage Party Anna Firth - Conservative Party Jayda Fransen - Independent Steve Laws - UKIP Graham Moore - English Constitution Party Jason Pilley - Psychedelic Movement https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-59956467
I’m pretty sure that, if I lived in Southend, that would be the one time in my life that I’d vote Tory.
I can't find any information about Olga Childs, and what platform she is standing on. I had some hopes that the Psychedelic Movement might be worthy of a vote, but from what little I have found I think not. I'm not a big fan of facebook myself, but anyone who decides to leave it for gab, citing the US First Amendment, because one of their posts on facebook about BLM was censored... Well. I have my doubts.
Not sure I could vote Tory, though. If I lived in the constituency I might have had to spoil my ballot.
Though, after reading some of the nonsense on the various websites of the micro far-right parties, maybe I would vote Tory. At least Anna Firth is spreading anti-vaccine nonsense.
I doubt any Tory PM, not just Boris, will impose any more Covid restrictions again. Especially on the vaccinated.
Credibly they could not do so and their supporters and MPs will not allow them to do so. Only way we may get more restrictions in England is a Starmer premiership with Labour having won most seats, which is more likely than not now
What if there were a new variant with vaccine breakthrough and greater severity spreading rapidly? I don't expect that to happen, but it could.
Omicron's main advantage is being able to replicate quickly in the nose and throat so I doubt a more disease causing strain would be able to outcompete it whilst it's merrily going through populations. After it's finished, and people have immunity to Omicron (From having had omicron) I suppose something else might come along and replace it. Unlike alpha and original wuhan we never saw the delta wave particularly go down.
There is an understandable desire to hope that the worst is over, that we're winning the war against COVID-19 and that everything will go back to normal. And indeed that it will be another 100 years before we face the same again.
That may be true. I hope it will be. But viruses don't obey human timetables or news cycles. It is possible that we get a nasty new SARS-CoV-2 variant. It is also possible that we get some other pandemic (a new flu pandemic, another coronavirus, a filovirus like Ebola, a flavivirus like Zika). I don't think people should be hiding scared of such possibilities, but I do think we should beef up planning for future pandemics and not slip into complacency because we've made it through COVID. There is a possibility that we will have to do something similar again in our lifetimes, or indeed something different but equally awful.
Anyway, just thought I'd say that, in case anybody wanted nightmares tonight.
In 2020 many of the various holidays and feast days fell conveniently on a Friday or on a weekend.
I'm curious as to how that is different to any other year ?
Bank holidays are always on Fridays or Mondays.
I'm thinking of VE Day and Robbie Burns day - which fell on a Saturday, for instance. There were a number of long weekends like that where Daughter had plans for special events etc to maximise revenue. I remember her telling me that she was looking forward to planning all these events because having got her first year under her belt she could really push the boat out in the second.
Alas ....
Thanks.
But Burns Night is in January so wouldn't have been affected by covid in 2020.
An example. Easter was late so better weather. The VE Day weekend - gorgeous weather - could have been a great earner etc. Hospitality people are always looking ahead to plan events, see how to encourage people to come to them etc. and the frustration of seeing a gorgeous spring and early summer be wasted was palpable.
She knew perfectly well that people were drinking in their gardens and probably breaking rules. They could get away with it. But she couldn't. And now we learn that the people at the top were just blatantly ignoring all the rules.
Sure we need to do the right thing regardless. But, really, why if all that happens is that you get shafted and others get the benefits, the juicy contracts, the fat pensions, the opportunities. It is emblematic of an approach which is wrong.
And I - a lawyer who has tried all my life to do the right thing and teach one of the more entitled sectors to do the right thing - now find it increasingly difficult to keep on saying this. It's cynical. It's despairing. It's corrosive. But it's inevitable when those at the top behave in this way.
May I respond to your header? While I agree with much of it, I'm bothered by your penultimate paragraph:
What I care about that is that the one lesson to be taken from all this is this: in this country right now you’re a mug if you try and do the right thing. You just get taken for a fool. Your hard work doesn’t matter. Your sacrifices don’t matter. When all the fuss has died down, when these here today/gone tomorrow politicians have departed the stage, this is what will be remembered. Why trust any replacement? They will do the same, probably have done the same, it’s just we have yet to find out about it.
If I may say so, this is the politics of despair. You're saying "they're all the same", but I think this cynicism is corrosive. I really don't believe they're all the same. Boris is a one-off in this country. Under different governance, 'doing the right thing' would reap rewards. What you're saying is not too far removed from the mantra that all politicians (and by extension governments) are corrupt and self-serving. I don't believe this to be the case, and such beliefs can lead down a sticky path where faith in democracy is undermined, as is possibly evident in the USA.
The qualification there is “in this country right now”. I don’t believe for a moment that Cyclefree is advocating a politics of despair - rather pointing out that that’s where this government is taking us.
If Johnson remains in power, then it’s not just a “one-off” politician, it’s his entire party.
I guess it's the "why trust any replacement?" I was reacting to. That sounded like any replacement in the future, not just a Tory successor to Boris.
Darren Grimes @darrengrimes_ · 3h My vote for Boris was the proudest and surest I’d ever cast. Communities like my own would have their vote for Brexit respected and finally receive the attention they deserve. I’m afraid Boris appears to have taken that golden opportunity for granted. It is a truly tragic shame.
Richard Frediani @BBCFrediani · 1h Still waiting to find out if a Minister will turn out for the Government at 7.30am on #BBCBreakfast on Wednesday? Lots of questions about Downing Street parties. The chair is waiting to be filled… Labour’s @AngelaRayner and Lib Dem leader @EdwardJDavey already confirmed.
Will Red Angela be doing PMQs? Is Starmer back from covid yet?
Candidates announced for the Southend West by election on February 3rd.
Christopher Anderson - Freedom Alliance Catherine Blaiklock - English Democrats Olga Childs - Independent Ben Downton - Heritage Party Anna Firth - Conservative Party Jayda Fransen - Independent Steve Laws - UKIP Graham Moore - English Constitution Party Jason Pilley - Psychedelic Movement https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-59956467
There must be a chance the Tories won’t win it, if only it was clear who might be the contender(s) there could be a betting op.
Jason Pilley opposes selling energy drinks to children and supports revitalising British high streets. So the Psychedelic Movement are making a clear pitch for hard-working families.
Christ! Not the bloody High Street again. He's lost my theoretical support. I'd vote for any candidate who said. "The High Street is never again going to be the High Street of your youth. You're getting old and the world has moved on. Deal with it."
Richard Frediani @BBCFrediani · 1h Still waiting to find out if a Minister will turn out for the Government at 7.30am on #BBCBreakfast on Wednesday? Lots of questions about Downing Street parties. The chair is waiting to be filled… Labour’s @AngelaRayner and Lib Dem leader @EdwardJDavey already confirmed.
The important questions you need to push Ed, about cladding and smart motorway fiasco are in my post in this thread. If you could clarify the libdem position on cultivating and modifying pigs for human transplants that would be helpful too. Thanx.
I doubt any Tory PM, not just Boris, will impose any more Covid restrictions again. Especially on the vaccinated.
Credibly they could not do so and their supporters and MPs will not allow them to do so. Only way we may get more restrictions in England is a Starmer premiership with Labour having won most seats, which is more likely than not now
What if there were a new variant with vaccine breakthrough and greater severity spreading rapidly? I don't expect that to happen, but it could.
Omicron's main advantage is being able to replicate quickly in the nose and throat so I doubt a more disease causing strain would be able to outcompete it whilst it's merrily going through populations. After it's finished, and people have immunity to Omicron (From having had omicron) I suppose something else might come along and replace it. Unlike alpha and original wuhan we never saw the delta wave particularly go down.
There is an understandable desire to hope that the worst is over, that we're winning the war against COVID-19 and that everything will go back to normal. And indeed that it will be another 100 years before we face the same again.
That may be true. I hope it will be. But viruses don't obey human timetables or news cycles. It is possible that we get a nasty new SARS-CoV-2 variant. It is also possible that we get some other pandemic (a new flu pandemic, another coronavirus, a filovirus like Ebola, a flavivirus like Zika). I don't think people should be hiding scared of such possibilities, but I do think we should beef up planning for future pandemics and not slip into complacency because we've made it through COVID. There is a possibility that we will have to do something similar again in our lifetimes, or indeed something different but equally awful.
Anyway, just thought I'd say that, in case anybody wanted nightmares tonight.
I had lunch with a friend today, who specialised in "disaster preparedness" in a previous career (he now hunts down art traffickers). His "pro" opinion was that we will get at least one more seriously nasty variant
HOWEVER this is the same guy who said, when I warned him about Coronavirus in early 2020, "pff, it's nothing"
We actually had a macabre bet as to how many Brits would die by the summer of 2020. He lost, by an order of magnitude
Brexit, as a political cause, is dead. As an administrative inconvenience, it will be with us for decades.
As the administrative inconveniences mount, so the political cause grows.
Brexit is alive and kicking...
We'll need to see rejoin polling at around 65% before a Labour government would have the nerve to try and take us back in. The EU would need to be convinced, too, that we're back in for good.
The only way to lock us in for good (which I agree the EU would want) is to demand euro membership. Would we ever pay that price?
Hmm
It’s a measure of Brexit’s deadness that you are even posing this question.
As it happens, I agree that Rejoin is not at all feasible, let alone euro-membership, but some sort of re-entry into the single market (Swiss style) seems a reasonably likely trajectory.
That will be the next step, to a EEA style deal. Then the realisation that we want a seat at the top table will become the motivating factor for patriotic Tories.
More wishful thinking Foxy. EEA or EFTA is certainly a possibility if, sadly, only a distant one. But rejoining seems to me to be a complete impossibility. Both the UK and the EU will have changed in ways that will make it unpalatable to both sides.
I think it's more likely than not that Britain will be back in the EEA in some form in the next decade. Full rejoining, on the other hand, looks very unlikely to me, for now.
It is the great trap for Rejoiners. If we are back in the EEA it becomes much harder to argue for all the political rubbish of full membership because we have the Single Market benefits.
Doesn't EEA come with Free Movement? That's the Big Red Line for both sides
Now we are out and have (sort of) control of our borders, I cannot see a UK government agreeing to give that up. Or risk the wrath of the voters as migration explodes from Eastern Europe again
So it would take some compromise on FoM from the EU, but they don't seem willing or likely to do that, either (and fair enough)
But a large part of disiliusion and disengagement from Brexit at the moment among the Tory core vote is that borders are no more under control. In fact, because of reduced European co-operation, they're in some ways under less control.
Partly because of this, it's clearer than ever to me that a significant part of the 2016 vote was actually a vote against non-European migration. The sordid reality is that the Tories could probably subtly sell the argument back to some of their supporters along dog-whistle racial lines, particularly if their anxieties increase vis-a-vis more immigration from the Indian subcontinent with new trade deals, for instance,
That's quite a grim reality to start from, but I think there's quite a lot in it.
Andrew Male @Andr6wMale · 8h Maybe it needs to be repeated that I was not at my wife's bedside when she died. I was allowed to watch her die on the NHS equivalent of a Zoom call.
2000+ deaths in the US today, so far (293 in NY alone). This wave will probably be their second biggest, in terms of daily deaths, but shorter than the others
The bug is in retreat, but it is far from finished?
We have our old friend to come, trust suddenly "finding" loads of people who died of covid weeks, sometimes months ago.
"Leading British and US scientists thought it was likely that Covid accidentally leaked from a laboratory but were concerned that further debate would harm science in China, emails show.
"An email from Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, on February 2 2020 said that “a likely explanation” was that Covid had rapidly evolved from a Sars-like virus inside human tissue in a low-security lab.
"The email, to Dr Anthony Fauci and Dr Francis Collins of the US National Institutes of Health, went on to say that such evolution may have “accidentally created a virus primed for rapid transmission between humans”."
Starmer should call Johnson a liar tomorrow at PMQs and see if the speaker dares demand he leaves the Commons.
Either way he wins. The public still has the story in the news.
Top tip to SKS
Ask the same question six times. Was the PM at the party? ETA whip all your MPs to ask the same question too if called, and make a pact with Blackers to ask the same q 3 times too.
Perhaps some opposition mps will bring their own bottles and wave them about, though I'm sure it would break a multitude of HoC rules. Perhaps a cardboard cutout of such? Dennis Skinner would have been your man for the task.
I agree. I’m surprised myself how annoyed I am about what seems a comparatively minor transgression in objective terms.
Although as my wife noted this evening it’s their “let them eat cake” moment
I'm more annoyed at Boris frittering away a great big win, a lot of goodwill, an 80 seat majority, and probably his own job, with a series of such ridiculous unforced errors. Is it Long Covid destroying his brain? These are the actions of a clueless man, which he wasn't before - erratic, but never clueless
He has now ushered in the likelihood of a feeble Starmer-led Coalition government, hijacked by the trouble-making SNP, which is a recipe for more stagnation, division and relative decline. Brilliant, not
He's self-indulgent, doesn't do details and has a limited attention span.
Everyone connected with him knows about his flaws as well as his positive attributes.
In many ways he is like his hero Churchill.
But what Churchill had was an Alanbrooke and that's what Boris lacks.
Why ?
Did he feel he didn't need one ? Did he not want any constraints ? Is everyone else in Westminster some combination of self-serving schemer and fuckwit ?
"In many ways he is like his hero Churchill."
Name some.
Churchill was a fanatical details man, a masterful orator, a horseman and warrior, a hugely productive and disciplined writer and historian, and a marked non-wanker. He is also not Johnson's hero. Johnson's hero is Johnson, he pretends it is Churchill in the obviously not forlorn hope that exceptionally silly people will see some sort of fantastical resemblance between the two of them.
Was Churchill a fanatical details man ?
I've always had the opposite impression.
Certainly his career went from fuck-up to fuck-up eg Gallipoli and gold standard and the failure of Norway 1940 could be laid at his door as well but fortunately for Churchill brought down Chamberlain instead.
"The grenade had several faults with its design. In tests, it failed to adhere to dusty or muddy tanks and if the user was not careful after freeing the grenade from its casing, it could easily stick to their uniform. The Ordnance Board of the War Department did not approve the grenade for use by the British Army, but intervention by the prime minister, Winston Churchill, led to the grenade going into production. Between 1940 and 1943, approximately 2.5 million were produced. It was primarily issued to the Home Guard but was also used by British and Commonwealth forces in North Africa, accounting for six German tanks. It was used by Allied Forces on the Anzio Beachhead, including the First Special Service Force; as well as by Australian Army units during the New Guinea campaign. The French Resistance were also issued a quantity of the grenades."
I call that fanatical attention to detail, Boris would have left the decision to the Minister for Bombs (which would actually be the correct course of action).
But wasn't that a case of enthusiastic meddling by Churchill ?
Which in that case may have been successful.
I'm sure Churchill did plenty of enthusiastic meddling which turned out to be rather less successful. For example:
Brexit, as a political cause, is dead. As an administrative inconvenience, it will be with us for decades.
As the administrative inconveniences mount, so the political cause grows.
Brexit is alive and kicking...
We'll need to see rejoin polling at around 65% before a Labour government would have the nerve to try and take us back in. The EU would need to be convinced, too, that we're back in for good.
The only way to lock us in for good (which I agree the EU would want) is to demand euro membership. Would we ever pay that price?
Hmm
It’s a measure of Brexit’s deadness that you are even posing this question.
As it happens, I agree that Rejoin is not at all feasible, let alone euro-membership, but some sort of re-entry into the single market (Swiss style) seems a reasonably likely trajectory.
That will be the next step, to a EEA style deal. Then the realisation that we want a seat at the top table will become the motivating factor for patriotic Tories.
More wishful thinking Foxy. EEA or EFTA is certainly a possibility if, sadly, only a distant one. But rejoining seems to me to be a complete impossibility. Both the UK and the EU will have changed in ways that will make it unpalatable to both sides.
I think it's more likely than not that Britain will be back in the EEA in some form in the next decade. Full rejoining, on the other hand, looks very unlikely to me, for now.
It is the great trap for Rejoiners. If we are back in the EEA it becomes much harder to argue for all the political rubbish of full membership because we have the Single Market benefits.
Doesn't EEA come with Free Movement? That's the Big Red Line for both sides
Now we are out and have (sort of) control of our borders, I cannot see a UK government agreeing to give that up. Or risk the wrath of the voters as migration explodes from Eastern Europe again
So it would take some compromise on FoM from the EU, but they don't seem willing or likely to do that, either (and fair enough)
We have less control of our borders than before.
That's really not true. The optics in the Channel are bad (and Tory failure to solve it is lamentable and spineless) but these people constitute less than 10% of net migration
Bloody hell, are you joking? Cos if ever a statistic needed standing on its head - are you saying channel crossers are only a bit less than 10% of net migration?
Richard Frediani @BBCFrediani · 1h Still waiting to find out if a Minister will turn out for the Government at 7.30am on #BBCBreakfast on Wednesday? Lots of questions about Downing Street parties. The chair is waiting to be filled… Labour’s @AngelaRayner and Lib Dem leader @EdwardJDavey already confirmed.
The important questions you need to push Ed, about cladding and smart motorway fiasco are in my post in this thread. If you could clarify the libdem position on cultivating and modifying pigs for human transplants that would be helpful too. Thanx.
If you think one iota of that matters as of today's revelations about Johnson and Downing Street then I humbly suggest you haven't a fecking clue about politics.
Richard Frediani @BBCFrediani · 1h Still waiting to find out if a Minister will turn out for the Government at 7.30am on #BBCBreakfast on Wednesday? Lots of questions about Downing Street parties. The chair is waiting to be filled… Labour’s @AngelaRayner and Lib Dem leader @EdwardJDavey already confirmed.
The important questions you need to push Ed, about cladding and smart motorway fiasco are in my post in this thread. If you could clarify the libdem position on cultivating and modifying pigs for human transplants that would be helpful too. Thanx.
If you think one iota of that matters as of today's revelations about Johnson and Downing Street then I humbly suggest you haven't a fecking clue about politics.
That’s very rude.
Unfortunately for you I think the same about you. How can you demand opposition leader operate in your self interest contrary to his own? National Interest in Starmer’s mind has to be to destroy the conservatives for a generation, not save them in time for the next election!
Either side of the six questions I have set Starmer, he should compliment the PM on a smart new haircut, and ask him if he has any New Year resolutions.
Andrew Male @Andr6wMale · 8h Maybe it needs to be repeated that I was not at my wife's bedside when she died. I was allowed to watch her die on the NHS equivalent of a Zoom call.
As I said. People are beginning to process the trauma. It wasn't having to wear a mask in Tesco. That was a minor irritation. They are looking to assign blame.
Richard Frediani @BBCFrediani · 1h Still waiting to find out if a Minister will turn out for the Government at 7.30am on #BBCBreakfast on Wednesday? Lots of questions about Downing Street parties. The chair is waiting to be filled… Labour’s @AngelaRayner and Lib Dem leader @EdwardJDavey already confirmed.
Will Red Angela be doing PMQs? Is Starmer back from covid yet?
Dunno. But Starmer has two choices. Let Angela go in for the kill like the white shark in Jaws or he does the job and as Julia HB suggested spends ten minutes just saying - were you at the party yes or no.
My preference - he does it and tells the Commons that Johnson is lying and gets thrown out by Speaker. It shows passion and a will to fight and of course will in due course be shown to be correct.
"Leading British and US scientists thought it was likely that Covid accidentally leaked from a laboratory but were concerned that further debate would harm science in China, emails show.
"An email from Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, on February 2 2020 said that “a likely explanation” was that Covid had rapidly evolved from a Sars-like virus inside human tissue in a low-security lab.
"The email, to Dr Anthony Fauci and Dr Francis Collins of the US National Institutes of Health, went on to say that such evolution may have “accidentally created a virus primed for rapid transmission between humans”."
I wonder if they'd have been so concerned about 'international harmony' if it had originated in various other countries.
I for one am completely gobsmacked, confuzzled, amazed, discombobulated and generally knocked-dahn-with-a-fevver that it turns out the fucking virus FUCKING LIKELY CAME FROM THE FUCKING LAB and all the major scientists thought this was probably true from the off, but they decided to cover it up
I mean, you know. Who coulda guessed that. Really. What a SURPRISE
I for one am completely gobsmacked, confuzzled, amazed, discombobulated and generally knocked-dahn-with-a-fevver that it turns out the fucking virus FUCKING LIKELY CAME FROM THE FUCKING LAB and all the major scientists thought this was probably true from the off, but they decided to cover it up
I mean, you know. Who coulda guessed that. Really. What a SURPRISE
Does anyone actually think that it didn't come from the lab nowadays?
Richard Frediani @BBCFrediani · 1h Still waiting to find out if a Minister will turn out for the Government at 7.30am on #BBCBreakfast on Wednesday? Lots of questions about Downing Street parties. The chair is waiting to be filled… Labour’s @AngelaRayner and Lib Dem leader @EdwardJDavey already confirmed.
The important questions you need to push Ed, about cladding and smart motorway fiasco are in my post in this thread. If you could clarify the libdem position on cultivating and modifying pigs for human transplants that would be helpful too. Thanx.
Is the pig modding thing controversial? Animal welfare or discriminatory vs non-pork religions?
"Leading British and US scientists thought it was likely that Covid accidentally leaked from a laboratory but were concerned that further debate would harm science in China, emails show.
"An email from Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, on February 2 2020 said that “a likely explanation” was that Covid had rapidly evolved from a Sars-like virus inside human tissue in a low-security lab.
"The email, to Dr Anthony Fauci and Dr Francis Collins of the US National Institutes of Health, went on to say that such evolution may have “accidentally created a virus primed for rapid transmission between humans”."
I wonder if they'd have been so concerned about 'international harmony' if it had originated in various other countries.
If only PB had one sane, lucid, super-intelligent commenter who realised it probably came from the lab about 18 months ago, and kept telling us, and also told us there was a conspiracy to cover it up, right at the top of Anglo-American science. That would have been quite useful
I for one am completely gobsmacked, confuzzled, amazed, discombobulated and generally knocked-dahn-with-a-fevver that it turns out the fucking virus FUCKING LIKELY CAME FROM THE FUCKING LAB and all the major scientists thought this was probably true from the off, but they decided to cover it up
I mean, you know. Who coulda guessed that. Really. What a SURPRISE
Replace the words 'fucking virus' with 'fucker held a party during lockdown' and there you have it.
I for one am completely gobsmacked, confuzzled, amazed, discombobulated and generally knocked-dahn-with-a-fevver that it turns out the fucking virus FUCKING LIKELY CAME FROM THE FUCKING LAB and all the major scientists thought this was probably true from the off, but they decided to cover it up
I mean, you know. Who coulda guessed that. Really. What a SURPRISE
Does anyone actually think that it didn't come from the lab nowadays?
Of PB-ers @kinabalu for sure, and a couple of others
Brexit, as a political cause, is dead. As an administrative inconvenience, it will be with us for decades.
As the administrative inconveniences mount, so the political cause grows.
Brexit is alive and kicking...
We'll need to see rejoin polling at around 65% before a Labour government would have the nerve to try and take us back in. The EU would need to be convinced, too, that we're back in for good.
The only way to lock us in for good (which I agree the EU would want) is to demand euro membership. Would we ever pay that price?
Hmm
It’s a measure of Brexit’s deadness that you are even posing this question.
As it happens, I agree that Rejoin is not at all feasible, let alone euro-membership, but some sort of re-entry into the single market (Swiss style) seems a reasonably likely trajectory.
That will be the next step, to a EEA style deal. Then the realisation that we want a seat at the top table will become the motivating factor for patriotic Tories.
More wishful thinking Foxy. EEA or EFTA is certainly a possibility if, sadly, only a distant one. But rejoining seems to me to be a complete impossibility. Both the UK and the EU will have changed in ways that will make it unpalatable to both sides.
I think it's more likely than not that Britain will be back in the EEA in some form in the next decade. Full rejoining, on the other hand, looks very unlikely to me, for now.
It is the great trap for Rejoiners. If we are back in the EEA it becomes much harder to argue for all the political rubbish of full membership because we have the Single Market benefits.
Conversely there will be the argument about being the rule-takers without being the rule-makers. In the eyes of some this will discredit Brexit even further, but others will think much more along the Iines you mention. I still think it will probably happen, though, overall, without full rejoining.
The big question will then be how the immigration aspect is sold back.
Except the 'rule takers' vs 'rule makers' line is a myth.
Richard Frediani @BBCFrediani · 1h Still waiting to find out if a Minister will turn out for the Government at 7.30am on #BBCBreakfast on Wednesday? Lots of questions about Downing Street parties. The chair is waiting to be filled… Labour’s @AngelaRayner and Lib Dem leader @EdwardJDavey already confirmed.
The important questions you need to push Ed, about cladding and smart motorway fiasco are in my post in this thread. If you could clarify the libdem position on cultivating and modifying pigs for human transplants that would be helpful too. Thanx.
Is the pig modding thing controversial? Animal welfare or discriminatory vs non-pork religions?
It’s an ethical question isn’t it, like The Island with Scarlett Johansson. Would it be wrong to farm humans in this way, cloned, bred, reared and modified to supply strong healthy organs to humans? But right to do the same with other animals?
I for one am completely gobsmacked, confuzzled, amazed, discombobulated and generally knocked-dahn-with-a-fevver that it turns out the fucking virus FUCKING LIKELY CAME FROM THE FUCKING LAB and all the major scientists thought this was probably true from the off, but they decided to cover it up
I mean, you know. Who coulda guessed that. Really. What a SURPRISE
Replace the words 'fucking virus' with 'fucker held a party during lockdown' and there you have it.
Indeed. The utter terror of the virus has gone. Remove that curtain and the true Wizard is revealed.
Darren Grimes @darrengrimes_ · 3h My vote for Boris was the proudest and surest I’d ever cast. Communities like my own would have their vote for Brexit respected and finally receive the attention they deserve. I’m afraid Boris appears to have taken that golden opportunity for granted. It is a truly tragic shame.
Stunning video in China's Anyang city of 4K students in full hazmat suits, loading buses to quarantine facilities. After confirming a total of 84 covid cases, the city has put all of its 5.5 million residents under strict lockdown @cnn@firstmovehttps://t.co/Y58p4ERjdO
Comments
Night all
I've always had the opposite impression.
Certainly his career went from fuck-up to fuck-up eg Gallipoli and gold standard and the failure of Norway 1940 could be laid at his door as well but fortunately for Churchill brought down Chamberlain instead.
Last time, Rishi had a hall pass and was mooching by the Golden Gate Bridge. Will he be at his PM's side tomorrow?
She knew perfectly well that people were drinking in their gardens and probably breaking rules. They could get away with it. But she couldn't. And now we learn that the people at the top were just blatantly ignoring all the rules.
Sure we need to do the right thing regardless. But, really, why if all that happens is that you get shafted and others get the benefits, the juicy contracts, the fat pensions, the opportunities. It is emblematic of an approach which is wrong.
And I - a lawyer who has tried all my life to do the right thing and teach one of the more entitled sectors to do the right thing - now find it increasingly difficult to keep on saying this. It's cynical. It's despairing. It's corrosive. But it's inevitable when those at the top behave in this way.
So, anyway, we've got a range of right-wing to far right fringe candidates in the English Democrats, Heritage Party, Fransen the fascist, UKIP and the English Constitution Party. What's Childs' manifesto? Is there anyone for someone left of the Conservative Party to vote for?
Unlike alpha and original wuhan we never saw the delta wave particularly go down.
But those front pages? Jeez. No marginal seat tory will sleep tonight
I wonder whether the Bengal famine was the former or the latter.
"The grenade had several faults with its design. In tests, it failed to adhere to dusty or muddy tanks and if the user was not careful after freeing the grenade from its casing, it could easily stick to their uniform. The Ordnance Board of the War Department did not approve the grenade for use by the British Army, but intervention by the prime minister, Winston Churchill, led to the grenade going into production. Between 1940 and 1943, approximately 2.5 million were produced. It was primarily issued to the Home Guard but was also used by British and Commonwealth forces in North Africa, accounting for six German tanks. It was used by Allied Forces on the Anzio Beachhead, including the First Special Service Force; as well as by Australian Army units during the New Guinea campaign. The French Resistance were also issued a quantity of the grenades."
I call that fanatical attention to detail, Boris would have left the decision to the Minister for Bombs (which would actually be the correct course of action).
And that they couldn't get away with breaking all the rules.
Ditto for Hancock and Patterson.
If there's one thing people in Westminster should learn is that they need to consider the consequences of doing the wrong thing.
Either way he wins. The public still has the story in the news.
Ask the same question six times. Was the PM at the party?
ETA whip all your MPs to ask the same question too if called, and make a pact with Blackers to ask the same q 3 times too.
Which in that case may have been successful.
I'm sure Churchill did plenty of enthusiastic meddling which turned out to be rather less successful. For example:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dodecanese_campaign
Boris seems completely addicted to erring though,
UKIP got 17.5% in Southend West in 2015, on a very low turnout not impossible UKIP could win it though Firth should scrape home.
If the Tories managed to lose Southend West however when they did not even face a Labour or LD candidate, I would imagine the letters would rise to an avalanche on Sir Graham's desk and there would be a VONC within a week
Does anyone know how many tests per day France and Italy are currently doing ?
AIUI the UK deaths within 28 days of a covid infection was used as at 28 days the deaths after 28 from covid would roughly equal the deaths within 28 days which weren't from the covid infection.
But now with Omicron increasing infection numbers but being much less dangerous doesn't that mean the deaths within 28 days of an infection measure is no longer appropriate ?
The big question will then be how the immigration aspect is sold back.
Dennis Skinner would have been your man for the task. I think we can all agree that Churchill was sometimes whimsical, self indulgent, Quixotic, meddling and obsessive, but he wasn't a lazy cnut.
What I care about that is that the one lesson to be taken from all this is this: in this country right now you’re a mug if you try and do the right thing. You just get taken for a fool. Your hard work doesn’t matter. Your sacrifices don’t matter. When all the fuss has died down, when these here today/gone tomorrow politicians have departed the stage, this is what will be remembered. Why trust any replacement? They will do the same, probably have done the same, it’s just we have yet to find out about it.
If I may say so, this is the politics of despair. You're saying "they're all the same", but I think this cynicism is corrosive. I really don't believe they're all the same. Boris is a one-off in this country. Under different governance, 'doing the right thing' would reap rewards. What you're saying is not too far removed from the mantra that all politicians (and by extension governments) are corrupt and self-serving. I don't believe this to be the case, and such beliefs can lead down a sticky path where faith in democracy is undermined, as is possibly evident in the USA.
The only time Starmer has been listened to or taken remotely seriously is in the last couple of months, why on earth should he want the reason for that to so quickly resign or be vonked? The opposition parties are not on the side of anyone wanting a swift finish to this Conservative Party crisis.
Richard Frediani
@BBCFrediani
·
1h
Still waiting to find out if a Minister will turn out for the Government at 7.30am on #BBCBreakfast on Wednesday?
Lots of questions about Downing Street parties.
The chair is waiting to be filled…
Labour’s
@AngelaRayner
and Lib Dem leader
@EdwardJDavey
already confirmed.
Now we are out and have (sort of) control of our borders, I cannot see a UK government agreeing to give that up. Or risk the wrath of the voters as migration explodes from Eastern Europe again
So it would take some compromise on FoM from the EU, but they don't seem willing or likely to do that, either (and fair enough)
Christopher HopeMemo
@christopherhope
NEW Strong rumours in Parliament from two Government sources tonight that Boris Johnson will make some sort of statement tomorrow lunchtime about partygate just before Prime Minister's Questions.
He makes some mistakes and gets some things right.
The dangerous things are that the mistakes which are damaging are completely careless and that he seems incapable of learning from them.
AN MP wept in Parliament yesterday as he revealed his mother-in-law died alone of Covid — while No 10 aides held parties.
Sun
As you say, all the Single Market benefits, but the rules are set by the grown-ups in Brussels rather than the halfwits in Westminster.
Works for me. As a centre-left voter in a rural constituency, it’s not like my vote ever counts for anything, so I’d hardly feel disenfranchised - to the contrary, on average the European polity will be closer to my views than the British one.
A prime minister could fall in the next 48 hours.
I don’t believe for a moment that Cyclefree is advocating a politics of despair - rather pointing out that that’s where this government is taking us.
If Johnson remains in power, then it’s not just a “one-off” politician, it’s his entire party.
I now definitely think it was an error in hindsight for the main opposition parties not to fight the Batley and Spen 2016 and this by election. The precedent will be difficult to be reverse in future if similar atrocities.
I think Labour could have managed 35%+ if it was a normal by election in the current circumstances.
The bug is in retreat, but it is far from finished?
Not sure I could vote Tory, though. If I lived in the constituency I might have had to spoil my ballot.
Though, after reading some of the nonsense on the various websites of the micro far-right parties, maybe I would vote Tory. At least Anna Firth is spreading anti-vaccine nonsense.
That may be true. I hope it will be. But viruses don't obey human timetables or news cycles. It is possible that we get a nasty new SARS-CoV-2 variant. It is also possible that we get some other pandemic (a new flu pandemic, another coronavirus, a filovirus like Ebola, a flavivirus like Zika). I don't think people should be hiding scared of such possibilities, but I do think we should beef up planning for future pandemics and not slip into complacency because we've made it through COVID. There is a possibility that we will have to do something similar again in our lifetimes, or indeed something different but equally awful.
Anyway, just thought I'd say that, in case anybody wanted nightmares tonight.
A perfect storm in the Democratic Party is making a once-unfathomable scenario plausible: a political comeback for Hillary Clinton in 2024
Darren Grimes
@darrengrimes_
·
3h
My vote for Boris was the proudest and surest I’d ever cast. Communities like my own would have their vote for Brexit respected and finally receive the attention they deserve. I’m afraid Boris appears to have taken that golden opportunity for granted. It is a truly tragic shame.
The fatal thing was that the mistakes which were damaging were completely careless and that he was incapable of learning from them.
He is history.
I'd vote for any candidate who said. "The High Street is never again going to be the High Street of your youth. You're getting old and the world has moved on. Deal with it."
HOWEVER this is the same guy who said, when I warned him about Coronavirus in early 2020, "pff, it's nothing"
We actually had a macabre bet as to how many Brits would die by the summer of 2020. He lost, by an order of magnitude
So take with a big pinch of salt
Partly because of this, it's clearer than ever to me that a significant part of the 2016 vote was actually a vote against non-European migration. The sordid reality is that the Tories could probably subtly sell the argument back to some of their supporters along dog-whistle racial lines, particularly if their anxieties increase vis-a-vis more immigration from the Indian subcontinent with new trade deals, for instance,
That's quite a grim reality to start from, but I think there's quite a lot in it.
@Andr6wMale
·
8h
Maybe it needs to be repeated that I was not at my wife's bedside when she died. I was allowed to watch her die on the NHS equivalent of a Zoom call.
"Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab - but feared debate could hurt ‘international harmony’
"Emails to Dr Anthony Fauci show ‘likely’ explanation identified at start of coronavirus pandemic, but there were worries about saying so"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/11/scientists-believed-covid-leaked-wuhan-lab-feared-debate-could/
"Leading British and US scientists thought it was likely that Covid accidentally leaked from a laboratory but were concerned that further debate would harm science in China, emails show.
"An email from Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, on February 2 2020 said that “a likely explanation” was that Covid had rapidly evolved from a Sars-like virus inside human tissue in a low-security lab.
"The email, to Dr Anthony Fauci and Dr Francis Collins of the US National Institutes of Health, went on to say that such evolution may have “accidentally created a virus primed for rapid transmission between humans”."
How much of that would be tolerated today if we had rationing ?
Unfortunately for you I think the same about you. How can you demand opposition leader operate in your self interest contrary to his own? National Interest in Starmer’s mind has to be to destroy the conservatives for a generation, not save them in time for the next election!
Either side of the six questions I have set Starmer, he should compliment the PM on a smart new haircut, and ask him if he has any New Year resolutions.
They are looking to assign blame.
My preference - he does it and tells the Commons that Johnson is lying and gets thrown out by Speaker. It shows passion and a will to fight and of course will in due course be shown to be correct.
I mean, you know. Who coulda guessed that. Really. What a SURPRISE
The Independent
@Independent
· 2h
No 10 staff told to ‘clean up’ phones amid lockdown party allegations, sources claim https://independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/partygate-phones-clean-up-investigation-sue-gray-b1991055.html?utm_content=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Main&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1641933511
Anna Soubry
@Anna_Soubry
Replying to
@campbellclaret
Perverting the course of public justice. Max sentence - life imprisonment
Jack Blanchard
@Jack_Blanchard_
·
1h
It's not just the national press. It's the local papers, it's the freesheets. Truly dire for No.10
After confirming a total of 84 covid cases, the city has put all of its 5.5 million residents under strict lockdown
@cnn @firstmove https://t.co/Y58p4ERjdO
https://twitter.com/selinawangtv/status/1480911976125677571?t=karIcvLI_ivn88iN8WtZSw&s=19