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“Sorry” seems to be the hardest word – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    I agree. I’m surprised myself how annoyed I am about what seems a comparatively minor transgression in objective terms.

    Although as my wife noted this evening it’s their “let them eat cake” moment

    I'm more annoyed at Boris frittering away a great big win, a lot of goodwill, an 80 seat majority, and probably his own job, with a series of such ridiculous unforced errors. Is it Long Covid destroying his brain? These are the actions of a clueless man, which he wasn't before - erratic, but never clueless

    He has now ushered in the likelihood of a feeble Starmer-led Coalition government, hijacked by the trouble-making SNP, which is a recipe for more stagnation, division and relative decline. Brilliant, not

    You are in denial, probably because you voted for this.

    Boris was always a self-serving, fat fuck who gets off on deceiving people.
    Had Boris not won in 2019 however as May failed to do we may now have PM Corbyn in a hung parliament which would be even worse
    So you admit it's bad?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Brexit, as a political cause, is dead.
    As an administrative inconvenience, it will be with us for decades.

    As the administrative inconveniences mount, so the political cause grows.

    Brexit is alive and kicking...
    Rejoining the single market, in some form, is certainly still very much alive as a political possibility.
    With the year that lies ahead, it could easily be the election winning strategy next time. A Tory party on its game would be working out how to pivot there before Labour makes up its mind.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    I suppose 11am tomorrow is the perfect time for the video of the party to come out...

    Night all
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    I agree. I’m surprised myself how annoyed I am about what seems a comparatively minor transgression in objective terms.

    Although as my wife noted this evening it’s their “let them eat cake” moment

    I'm more annoyed at Boris frittering away a great big win, a lot of goodwill, an 80 seat majority, and probably his own job, with a series of such ridiculous unforced errors. Is it Long Covid destroying his brain? These are the actions of a clueless man, which he wasn't before - erratic, but never clueless

    He has now ushered in the likelihood of a feeble Starmer-led Coalition government, hijacked by the trouble-making SNP, which is a recipe for more stagnation, division and relative decline. Brilliant, not

    He's self-indulgent, doesn't do details and has a limited attention span.

    Everyone connected with him knows about his flaws as well as his positive attributes.

    In many ways he is like his hero Churchill.

    But what Churchill had was an Alanbrooke and that's what Boris lacks.

    Why ?

    Did he feel he didn't need one ? Did he not want any constraints ? Is everyone else in Westminster some combination of self-serving schemer and fuckwit ?
    "In many ways he is like his hero Churchill."

    Name some.

    Churchill was a fanatical details man, a masterful orator, a horseman and warrior, a hugely productive and disciplined writer and historian, and a marked non-wanker. He is also not Johnson's hero. Johnson's hero is Johnson, he pretends it is Churchill in the obviously not forlorn hope that exceptionally silly people will see some sort of fantastical resemblance between the two of them.
    Was Churchill a fanatical details man ?

    I've always had the opposite impression.

    Certainly his career went from fuck-up to fuck-up eg Gallipoli and gold standard and the failure of Norway 1940 could be laid at his door as well but fortunately for Churchill brought down Chamberlain instead.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    HYUFD said:

    Candidates announced for the Southend West by election on February 3rd.


    Christopher Anderson - Freedom Alliance
    Catherine Blaiklock - English Democrats
    Olga Childs - Independent
    Ben Downton - Heritage Party
    Anna Firth - Conservative Party
    Jayda Fransen - Independent
    Steve Laws - UKIP
    Graham Moore - English Constitution Party
    Jason Pilley - Psychedelic Movement
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-59956467

    There must be a chance the Tories won’t win it, if only it was clear who might be the contender(s) there could be a betting op.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310

    Cyclefree said:

    In 2020 many of the various holidays and feast days fell conveniently on a Friday or on a weekend.

    I'm curious as to how that is different to any other year ?

    Bank holidays are always on Fridays or Mondays.

    I'm thinking of VE Day and Robbie Burns day - which fell on a Saturday, for instance. There were a number of long weekends like that where Daughter had plans for special events etc to maximise revenue. I remember her telling me that she was looking forward to planning all these events because having got her first year under her belt she could really push the boat out in the second.

    Alas ....
    Thanks.

    But Burns Night is in January so wouldn't have been affected by covid in 2020.
    An example. Easter was late so better weather. The VE Day weekend - gorgeous weather - could have been a great earner etc. Hospitality people are always looking ahead to plan events, see how to encourage people to come to them etc. and the frustration of seeing a gorgeous spring and early summer be wasted was palpable.

    She knew perfectly well that people were drinking in their gardens and probably breaking rules. They could get away with it. But she couldn't. And now we learn that the people at the top were just blatantly ignoring all the rules.

    Sure we need to do the right thing regardless. But, really, why if all that happens is that you get shafted and others get the benefits, the juicy contracts, the fat pensions, the opportunities. It is emblematic of an approach which is wrong.

    And I - a lawyer who has tried all my life to do the right thing and teach one of the more entitled sectors to do the right thing - now find it increasingly difficult to keep on saying this. It's cynical. It's despairing. It's corrosive. But it's inevitable when those at the top behave in this way.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908
    Another party incoming....Nick Watts

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Candidates announced for the Southend West by election on February 3rd.


    Christopher Anderson - Freedom Alliance
    Catherine Blaiklock - English Democrats
    Olga Childs - Independent
    Ben Downton - Heritage Party
    Anna Firth - Conservative Party
    Jayda Fransen - Independent
    Steve Laws - UKIP
    Graham Moore - English Constitution Party
    Jason Pilley - Psychedelic Movement
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-59956467

    There must be a chance the Tories won’t win it, if only it was clear who might be the contender(s) there could be a betting op.
    Jason Pilley is a superb name for the Psychedelic Party candidate.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,051
    HYUFD said:

    Candidates announced for the Southend West by election on February 3rd.


    Christopher Anderson - Freedom Alliance
    Catherine Blaiklock - English Democrats
    Olga Childs - Independent
    Ben Downton - Heritage Party
    Anna Firth - Conservative Party
    Jayda Fransen - Independent
    Steve Laws - UKIP
    Graham Moore - English Constitution Party
    Jason Pilley - Psychedelic Movement
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-59956467

    That's Catherine Blaiklock, the co-founder and first leader of The Brexit Party, standing for the English Democrats.

    So, anyway, we've got a range of right-wing to far right fringe candidates in the English Democrats, Heritage Party, Fransen the fascist, UKIP and the English Constitution Party. What's Childs' manifesto? Is there anyone for someone left of the Conservative Party to vote for?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714

    Scott_xP said:

    THE SUN: It’s my party and I’ll lie low if I want to #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1481033700997574668/photo/1

    That's a bloody horrible photo of him. And it's on the front page of the Graun, Mail, Express and Sun.
    When the Sun picture editors come for you, you're toast.
    I have a bucket of shit, PM, on my desk...

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188

    HYUFD said:

    I doubt any Tory PM, not just Boris, will impose any more Covid restrictions again. Especially on the vaccinated.

    Credibly they could not do so and their supporters and MPs will not allow them to do so. Only way we may get more restrictions in England is a Starmer premiership with Labour having won most seats, which is more likely than not now

    What if there were a new variant with vaccine breakthrough and greater severity spreading rapidly? I don't expect that to happen, but it could.
    Omicron's main advantage is being able to replicate quickly in the nose and throat so I doubt a more disease causing strain would be able to outcompete it whilst it's merrily going through populations. After it's finished, and people have immunity to Omicron (From having had omicron) I suppose something else might come along and replace it.
    Unlike alpha and original wuhan we never saw the delta wave particularly go down.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    I thought he could somehow survive this. Maybe he still will the fucker.

    But those front pages? Jeez. No marginal seat tory will sleep tonight
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,419
    What is a hall pass?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,133
    edited January 2022
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    In 2020 many of the various holidays and feast days fell conveniently on a Friday or on a weekend.

    I'm curious as to how that is different to any other year ?

    Bank holidays are always on Fridays or Mondays.

    I'm thinking of VE Day and Robbie Burns day - which fell on a Saturday, for instance. There were a number of long weekends like that where Daughter had plans for special events etc to maximise revenue. I remember her telling me that she was looking forward to planning all these events because having got her first year under her belt she could really push the boat out in the second.

    Alas ....
    Thanks.

    But Burns Night is in January so wouldn't have been affected by covid in 2020.
    An example. Easter was late so better weather. The VE Day weekend - gorgeous weather - could have been a great earner etc. Hospitality people are always looking ahead to plan events, see how to encourage people to come to them etc. and the frustration of seeing a gorgeous spring and early summer be wasted was palpable.

    She knew perfectly well that people were drinking in their gardens and probably breaking rules. They could get away with it. But she couldn't. And now we learn that the people at the top were just blatantly ignoring all the rules.

    Sure we need to do the right thing regardless. But, really, why if all that happens is that you get shafted and others get the benefits, the juicy contracts, the fat pensions, the opportunities. It is emblematic of an approach which is wrong.

    And I - a lawyer who has tried all my life to do the right thing and teach one of the more entitled sectors to do the right thing - now find it increasingly difficult to keep on saying this. It's cynical. It's despairing. It's corrosive. But it's inevitable when those at the top behave in this way.
    The cynicism at the top isn't an accident at all, or an arrival from nowhere, I would say. It's a kind of smug, ironic nihilism. It's fashionable.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Candidates announced for the Southend West by election on February 3rd.


    Christopher Anderson - Freedom Alliance
    Catherine Blaiklock - English Democrats
    Olga Childs - Independent
    Ben Downton - Heritage Party
    Anna Firth - Conservative Party
    Jayda Fransen - Independent
    Steve Laws - UKIP
    Graham Moore - English Constitution Party
    Jason Pilley - Psychedelic Movement
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-59956467

    I’m pretty sure that, if I lived in Southend, that would be the one time in my life that I’d vote Tory.
    If you'd shown me that list yesterday, I'd have agreed. But something's gone snap in my head tonight about the Conservative Party in general and I'd be avoiding them. Obviously if it was just the Tory or Fascist Fransen on the ballot, I'd definitely vote Conservative, but I reckon there's probably a decent human among the other candidates somewhere.
    Honestly, I wish I could agree with you, but every other candidate is somewhere in the space between UKIP and crypto-fascist. Google them. Or don’t. Actually, don’t.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    I agree. I’m surprised myself how annoyed I am about what seems a comparatively minor transgression in objective terms.

    Although as my wife noted this evening it’s their “let them eat cake” moment

    I'm more annoyed at Boris frittering away a great big win, a lot of goodwill, an 80 seat majority, and probably his own job, with a series of such ridiculous unforced errors. Is it Long Covid destroying his brain? These are the actions of a clueless man, which he wasn't before - erratic, but never clueless

    He has now ushered in the likelihood of a feeble Starmer-led Coalition government, hijacked by the trouble-making SNP, which is a recipe for more stagnation, division and relative decline. Brilliant, not

    He's self-indulgent, doesn't do details and has a limited attention span.

    Everyone connected with him knows about his flaws as well as his positive attributes.

    In many ways he is like his hero Churchill.

    But what Churchill had was an Alanbrooke and that's what Boris lacks.

    Why ?

    Did he feel he didn't need one ? Did he not want any constraints ? Is everyone else in Westminster some combination of self-serving schemer and fuckwit ?
    "In many ways he is like his hero Churchill."

    Name some.

    Churchill was a fanatical details man, a masterful orator, a horseman and warrior, a hugely productive and disciplined writer and historian, and a marked non-wanker. He is also not Johnson's hero. Johnson's hero is Johnson, he pretends it is Churchill in the obviously not forlorn hope that exceptionally silly people will see some sort of fantastical resemblance between the two of them.
    Was Churchill a fanatical details man ?

    I've always had the opposite impression.

    Certainly his career went from fuck-up to fuck-up eg Gallipoli and gold standard and the failure of Norway 1940 could be laid at his door as well but fortunately for Churchill brought down Chamberlain instead.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sticky_bomb

    "The grenade had several faults with its design. In tests, it failed to adhere to dusty or muddy tanks and if the user was not careful after freeing the grenade from its casing, it could easily stick to their uniform. The Ordnance Board of the War Department did not approve the grenade for use by the British Army, but intervention by the prime minister, Winston Churchill, led to the grenade going into production. Between 1940 and 1943, approximately 2.5 million were produced. It was primarily issued to the Home Guard but was also used by British and Commonwealth forces in North Africa, accounting for six German tanks. It was used by Allied Forces on the Anzio Beachhead, including the First Special Service Force; as well as by Australian Army units during the New Guinea campaign. The French Resistance were also issued a quantity of the grenades."

    I call that fanatical attention to detail, Boris would have left the decision to the Minister for Bombs (which would actually be the correct course of action).
  • Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    In 2020 many of the various holidays and feast days fell conveniently on a Friday or on a weekend.

    I'm curious as to how that is different to any other year ?

    Bank holidays are always on Fridays or Mondays.

    I'm thinking of VE Day and Robbie Burns day - which fell on a Saturday, for instance. There were a number of long weekends like that where Daughter had plans for special events etc to maximise revenue. I remember her telling me that she was looking forward to planning all these events because having got her first year under her belt she could really push the boat out in the second.

    Alas ....
    Thanks.

    But Burns Night is in January so wouldn't have been affected by covid in 2020.
    An example. Easter was late so better weather. The VE Day weekend - gorgeous weather - could have been a great earner etc. Hospitality people are always looking ahead to plan events, see how to encourage people to come to them etc. and the frustration of seeing a gorgeous spring and early summer be wasted was palpable.

    She knew perfectly well that people were drinking in their gardens and probably breaking rules. They could get away with it. But she couldn't. And now we learn that the people at the top were just blatantly ignoring all the rules.

    Sure we need to do the right thing regardless. But, really, why if all that happens is that you get shafted and others get the benefits, the juicy contracts, the fat pensions, the opportunities. It is emblematic of an approach which is wrong.

    And I - a lawyer who has tried all my life to do the right thing and teach one of the more entitled sectors to do the right thing - now find it increasingly difficult to keep on saying this. It's cynical. It's despairing. It's corrosive. But it's inevitable when those at the top behave in this way.
    The irony is that doing the right thing was the right thing to do for Boris and his gang.

    And that they couldn't get away with breaking all the rules.

    Ditto for Hancock and Patterson.

    If there's one thing people in Westminster should learn is that they need to consider the consequences of doing the wrong thing.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Starmer should call Johnson a liar tomorrow at PMQs and see if the speaker dares demand he leaves the Commons.

    Either way he wins. The public still has the story in the news.



  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908

    Scott_xP said:

    THE SUN: It’s my party and I’ll lie low if I want to #TomorrowsPapersToday https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1481033700997574668/photo/1

    Sun subs slipping. That would be a much better headline without the “low”.
    That might have been the original intention, but then the shadowy forces with News International decided not to break completely with Boris just yet.
    It wouldn't be catchy without the 'low'. Its a crap paper but their sup editors are the best in the business.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited January 2022

    Starmer should call Johnson a liar tomorrow at PMQs and see if the speaker dares demand he leaves the Commons.

    Either way he wins. The public still has the story in the news.

    Top tip to SKS

    Ask the same question six times. Was the PM at the party?
    ETA whip all your MPs to ask the same question too if called, and make a pact with Blackers to ask the same q 3 times too.
  • I thought he could somehow survive this. Maybe he still will the fucker.

    But those front pages? Jeez. No marginal seat tory will sleep tonight

    At least he still has the Daily Express on side - going with the Boris-the-flawed-genius approach.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    IshmaelZ said:

    Starmer should call Johnson a liar tomorrow at PMQs and see if the speaker dares demand he leaves the Commons.

    Either way he wins. The public still has the story in the news.

    Top tip to SKS

    Ask the same question six times. Was the PM at the party?
    Get him to lie again to the Commons. :+1:
  • Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Brexit, as a political cause, is dead.
    As an administrative inconvenience, it will be with us for decades.

    As the administrative inconveniences mount, so the political cause grows.

    Brexit is alive and kicking...
    We'll need to see rejoin polling at around 65% before a Labour government would have the nerve to try and take us back in. The EU would need to be convinced, too, that we're back in for good.
    The only way to lock us in for good (which I agree the EU would want) is to demand euro membership. Would we ever pay that price?

    Hmm
    It’s a measure of Brexit’s deadness that you are even posing this question.

    As it happens, I agree that Rejoin is not at all feasible, let alone euro-membership, but some sort of re-entry into the single market (Swiss style) seems a reasonably likely trajectory.
    That will be the next step, to a EEA style deal. Then the realisation that we want a seat at the top table will become the motivating factor for patriotic Tories.
    More wishful thinking Foxy. EEA or EFTA is certainly a possibility if, sadly, only a distant one. But rejoining seems to me to be a complete impossibility. Both the UK and the EU will have changed in ways that will make it unpalatable to both sides.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Brexit, as a political cause, is dead.
    As an administrative inconvenience, it will be with us for decades.

    As the administrative inconveniences mount, so the political cause grows.

    Brexit is alive and kicking...
    Nah. It is done. It is only sad sacks like you who still can't reconcile themselves with that fact.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    I agree. I’m surprised myself how annoyed I am about what seems a comparatively minor transgression in objective terms.

    Although as my wife noted this evening it’s their “let them eat cake” moment

    I'm more annoyed at Boris frittering away a great big win, a lot of goodwill, an 80 seat majority, and probably his own job, with a series of such ridiculous unforced errors. Is it Long Covid destroying his brain? These are the actions of a clueless man, which he wasn't before - erratic, but never clueless

    He has now ushered in the likelihood of a feeble Starmer-led Coalition government, hijacked by the trouble-making SNP, which is a recipe for more stagnation, division and relative decline. Brilliant, not

    He's self-indulgent, doesn't do details and has a limited attention span.

    Everyone connected with him knows about his flaws as well as his positive attributes.

    In many ways he is like his hero Churchill.

    But what Churchill had was an Alanbrooke and that's what Boris lacks.

    Why ?

    Did he feel he didn't need one ? Did he not want any constraints ? Is everyone else in Westminster some combination of self-serving schemer and fuckwit ?
    "In many ways he is like his hero Churchill."

    Name some.

    Churchill was a fanatical details man, a masterful orator, a horseman and warrior, a hugely productive and disciplined writer and historian, and a marked non-wanker. He is also not Johnson's hero. Johnson's hero is Johnson, he pretends it is Churchill in the obviously not forlorn hope that exceptionally silly people will see some sort of fantastical resemblance between the two of them.
    Was Churchill a fanatical details man ?

    I've always had the opposite impression.

    Certainly his career went from fuck-up to fuck-up eg Gallipoli and gold standard and the failure of Norway 1940 could be laid at his door as well but fortunately for Churchill brought down Chamberlain instead.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sticky_bomb

    "The grenade had several faults with its design. In tests, it failed to adhere to dusty or muddy tanks and if the user was not careful after freeing the grenade from its casing, it could easily stick to their uniform. The Ordnance Board of the War Department did not approve the grenade for use by the British Army, but intervention by the prime minister, Winston Churchill, led to the grenade going into production. Between 1940 and 1943, approximately 2.5 million were produced. It was primarily issued to the Home Guard but was also used by British and Commonwealth forces in North Africa, accounting for six German tanks. It was used by Allied Forces on the Anzio Beachhead, including the First Special Service Force; as well as by Australian Army units during the New Guinea campaign. The French Resistance were also issued a quantity of the grenades."

    I call that fanatical attention to detail, Boris would have left the decision to the Minister for Bombs (which would actually be the correct course of action).
    But wasn't that a case of enthusiastic meddling by Churchill ?

    Which in that case may have been successful.

    I'm sure Churchill did plenty of enthusiastic meddling which turned out to be rather less successful. For example:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dodecanese_campaign
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Starmer should call Johnson a liar tomorrow at PMQs and see if the speaker dares demand he leaves the Commons.

    Either way he wins. The public still has the story in the news.

    Top tip to SKS

    Ask the same question six times. Was the PM at the party?
    ETA whip all your MPs to ask the same question too if called, and make a pact with Blackers to ask the same q 3 times too.
    Rather than asking him if he was there try asking him who else was at the party with him. If he is not quick on his feet he could get himself in an awful mess.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,133
    edited January 2022

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Brexit, as a political cause, is dead.
    As an administrative inconvenience, it will be with us for decades.

    As the administrative inconveniences mount, so the political cause grows.

    Brexit is alive and kicking...
    We'll need to see rejoin polling at around 65% before a Labour government would have the nerve to try and take us back in. The EU would need to be convinced, too, that we're back in for good.
    The only way to lock us in for good (which I agree the EU would want) is to demand euro membership. Would we ever pay that price?

    Hmm
    It’s a measure of Brexit’s deadness that you are even posing this question.

    As it happens, I agree that Rejoin is not at all feasible, let alone euro-membership, but some sort of re-entry into the single market (Swiss style) seems a reasonably likely trajectory.
    That will be the next step, to a EEA style deal. Then the realisation that we want a seat at the top table will become the motivating factor for patriotic Tories.
    More wishful thinking Foxy. EEA or EFTA is certainly a possibility if, sadly, only a distant one. But rejoining seems to me to be a complete impossibility. Both the UK and the EU will have changed in ways that will make it unpalatable to both sides.
    I think it's more likely than not that Britain will be back in the EEA in some form in the next decade. Full rejoining, on the other hand, looks very unlikely to me, for now.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714

    I thought he could somehow survive this. Maybe he still will the fucker.

    But those front pages? Jeez. No marginal seat tory will sleep tonight

    At least he still has the Daily Express on side - going with the Boris-the-flawed-genius approach.
    Only three people aged 90 and a couple of nuts who think Diana controls the snow read the express.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Even the Telegraph...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188

    I thought he could somehow survive this. Maybe he still will the fucker.

    But those front pages? Jeez. No marginal seat tory will sleep tonight

    At least he still has the Daily Express on side - going with the Boris-the-flawed-genius approach.
    To err is human...

    Boris seems completely addicted to erring though,
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Candidates announced for the Southend West by election on February 3rd.


    Christopher Anderson - Freedom Alliance
    Catherine Blaiklock - English Democrats
    Olga Childs - Independent
    Ben Downton - Heritage Party
    Anna Firth - Conservative Party
    Jayda Fransen - Independent
    Steve Laws - UKIP
    Graham Moore - English Constitution Party
    Jason Pilley - Psychedelic Movement
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-59956467

    There must be a chance the Tories won’t win it, if only it was clear who might be the contender(s) there could be a betting op.
    UKIP is clearly the most well known party of the non Tory candidates.

    UKIP got 17.5% in Southend West in 2015, on a very low turnout not impossible UKIP could win it though Firth should scrape home.

    If the Tories managed to lose Southend West however when they did not even face a Labour or LD candidate, I would imagine the letters would rise to an avalanche on Sir Graham's desk and there would be a VONC within a week
  • Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Brexit, as a political cause, is dead.
    As an administrative inconvenience, it will be with us for decades.

    As the administrative inconveniences mount, so the political cause grows.

    Brexit is alive and kicking...
    We'll need to see rejoin polling at around 65% before a Labour government would have the nerve to try and take us back in. The EU would need to be convinced, too, that we're back in for good.
    The only way to lock us in for good (which I agree the EU would want) is to demand euro membership. Would we ever pay that price?

    Hmm
    It’s a measure of Brexit’s deadness that you are even posing this question.

    As it happens, I agree that Rejoin is not at all feasible, let alone euro-membership, but some sort of re-entry into the single market (Swiss style) seems a reasonably likely trajectory.
    That will be the next step, to a EEA style deal. Then the realisation that we want a seat at the top table will become the motivating factor for patriotic Tories.
    More wishful thinking Foxy. EEA or EFTA is certainly a possibility if, sadly, only a distant one. But rejoining seems to me to be a complete impossibility. Both the UK and the EU will have changed in ways that will make it unpalatable to both sides.
    I think it's more likely than not that Britain will be back in the EEA in some form in the next decade. Full rejoining, on the other hand, looks very unlikely to me, for now.
    It is the great trap for Rejoiners. If we are back in the EEA it becomes much harder to argue for all the political rubbish of full membership because we have the Single Market benefits.
  • Re covid:

    Does anyone know how many tests per day France and Italy are currently doing ?

    AIUI the UK deaths within 28 days of a covid infection was used as at 28 days the deaths after 28 from covid would roughly equal the deaths within 28 days which weren't from the covid infection.

    But now with Omicron increasing infection numbers but being much less dangerous doesn't that mean the deaths within 28 days of an infection measure is no longer appropriate ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Brexit, as a political cause, is dead.
    As an administrative inconvenience, it will be with us for decades.

    As the administrative inconveniences mount, so the political cause grows.

    Brexit is alive and kicking...
    We'll need to see rejoin polling at around 65% before a Labour government would have the nerve to try and take us back in. The EU would need to be convinced, too, that we're back in for good.
    The only way to lock us in for good (which I agree the EU would want) is to demand euro membership. Would we ever pay that price?

    Hmm
    It’s a measure of Brexit’s deadness that you are even posing this question.

    As it happens, I agree that Rejoin is not at all feasible, let alone euro-membership, but some sort of re-entry into the single market (Swiss style) seems a reasonably likely trajectory.
    That will be the next step, to a EEA style deal. Then the realisation that we want a seat at the top table will become the motivating factor for patriotic Tories.
    More wishful thinking Foxy. EEA or EFTA is certainly a possibility if, sadly, only a distant one. But rejoining seems to me to be a complete impossibility. Both the UK and the EU will have changed in ways that will make it unpalatable to both sides.
    I think it's more likely than not that Britain will be back in the EEA in some form in the next decade. Full rejoining, on the other hand, looks very unlikely to me, for now.
    The issue with the EEA however remains free movement, especially in the redwall, which the current points system avoids
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,133
    edited January 2022

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Brexit, as a political cause, is dead.
    As an administrative inconvenience, it will be with us for decades.

    As the administrative inconveniences mount, so the political cause grows.

    Brexit is alive and kicking...
    We'll need to see rejoin polling at around 65% before a Labour government would have the nerve to try and take us back in. The EU would need to be convinced, too, that we're back in for good.
    The only way to lock us in for good (which I agree the EU would want) is to demand euro membership. Would we ever pay that price?

    Hmm
    It’s a measure of Brexit’s deadness that you are even posing this question.

    As it happens, I agree that Rejoin is not at all feasible, let alone euro-membership, but some sort of re-entry into the single market (Swiss style) seems a reasonably likely trajectory.
    That will be the next step, to a EEA style deal. Then the realisation that we want a seat at the top table will become the motivating factor for patriotic Tories.
    More wishful thinking Foxy. EEA or EFTA is certainly a possibility if, sadly, only a distant one. But rejoining seems to me to be a complete impossibility. Both the UK and the EU will have changed in ways that will make it unpalatable to both sides.
    I think it's more likely than not that Britain will be back in the EEA in some form in the next decade. Full rejoining, on the other hand, looks very unlikely to me, for now.
    It is the great trap for Rejoiners. If we are back in the EEA it becomes much harder to argue for all the political rubbish of full membership because we have the Single Market benefits.
    Conversely there will be the argument about being the rule-takers without being the rule-makers. In the eyes of some this will discredit Brexit even further, but others will think much more along the Iines you mention. I still think it will probably happen, though, overall, without full rejoining.

    The big question will then be how the immigration aspect is sold back.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,955
    edited January 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Starmer should call Johnson a liar tomorrow at PMQs and see if the speaker dares demand he leaves the Commons.

    Either way he wins. The public still has the story in the news.

    Top tip to SKS

    Ask the same question six times. Was the PM at the party?
    ETA whip all your MPs to ask the same question too if called, and make a pact with Blackers to ask the same q 3 times too.
    Perhaps some opposition mps will bring their own bottles and wave them about, though I'm sure it would break a multitude of HoC rules. Perhaps a cardboard cutout of such?
    Dennis Skinner would have been your man for the task.

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    I agree. I’m surprised myself how annoyed I am about what seems a comparatively minor transgression in objective terms.

    Although as my wife noted this evening it’s their “let them eat cake” moment

    I'm more annoyed at Boris frittering away a great big win, a lot of goodwill, an 80 seat majority, and probably his own job, with a series of such ridiculous unforced errors. Is it Long Covid destroying his brain? These are the actions of a clueless man, which he wasn't before - erratic, but never clueless

    He has now ushered in the likelihood of a feeble Starmer-led Coalition government, hijacked by the trouble-making SNP, which is a recipe for more stagnation, division and relative decline. Brilliant, not

    He's self-indulgent, doesn't do details and has a limited attention span.

    Everyone connected with him knows about his flaws as well as his positive attributes.

    In many ways he is like his hero Churchill.

    But what Churchill had was an Alanbrooke and that's what Boris lacks.

    Why ?

    Did he feel he didn't need one ? Did he not want any constraints ? Is everyone else in Westminster some combination of self-serving schemer and fuckwit ?
    "In many ways he is like his hero Churchill."

    Name some.

    Churchill was a fanatical details man, a masterful orator, a horseman and warrior, a hugely productive and disciplined writer and historian, and a marked non-wanker. He is also not Johnson's hero. Johnson's hero is Johnson, he pretends it is Churchill in the obviously not forlorn hope that exceptionally silly people will see some sort of fantastical resemblance between the two of them.
    Was Churchill a fanatical details man ?

    I've always had the opposite impression.

    Certainly his career went from fuck-up to fuck-up eg Gallipoli and gold standard and the failure of Norway 1940 could be laid at his door as well but fortunately for Churchill brought down Chamberlain instead.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sticky_bomb

    "The grenade had several faults with its design. In tests, it failed to adhere to dusty or muddy tanks and if the user was not careful after freeing the grenade from its casing, it could easily stick to their uniform. The Ordnance Board of the War Department did not approve the grenade for use by the British Army, but intervention by the prime minister, Winston Churchill, led to the grenade going into production. Between 1940 and 1943, approximately 2.5 million were produced. It was primarily issued to the Home Guard but was also used by British and Commonwealth forces in North Africa, accounting for six German tanks. It was used by Allied Forces on the Anzio Beachhead, including the First Special Service Force; as well as by Australian Army units during the New Guinea campaign. The French Resistance were also issued a quantity of the grenades."

    I call that fanatical attention to detail, Boris would have left the decision to the Minister for Bombs (which would actually be the correct course of action).
    But wasn't that a case of enthusiastic meddling by Churchill ?

    Which in that case may have been successful.

    I'm sure Churchill did plenty of enthusiastic meddling which turned out to be rather less successful. For example:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dodecanese_campaign
    I think we can all agree that Churchill was sometimes whimsical, self indulgent, Quixotic, meddling and obsessive, but he wasn't a lazy cnut.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Farooq said:

    I thought he could somehow survive this. Maybe he still will the fucker.

    But those front pages? Jeez. No marginal seat tory will sleep tonight

    At least he still has the Daily Express on side - going with the Boris-the-flawed-genius approach.
    Only three people aged 90 and a couple of nuts who think Diana controls the snow read the express.
    Higher circulation than the Guardian and the Financial Times... combined!
    I said 'read'.

  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    In 2020 many of the various holidays and feast days fell conveniently on a Friday or on a weekend.

    I'm curious as to how that is different to any other year ?

    Bank holidays are always on Fridays or Mondays.

    I'm thinking of VE Day and Robbie Burns day - which fell on a Saturday, for instance. There were a number of long weekends like that where Daughter had plans for special events etc to maximise revenue. I remember her telling me that she was looking forward to planning all these events because having got her first year under her belt she could really push the boat out in the second.

    Alas ....
    Thanks.

    But Burns Night is in January so wouldn't have been affected by covid in 2020.
    An example. Easter was late so better weather. The VE Day weekend - gorgeous weather - could have been a great earner etc. Hospitality people are always looking ahead to plan events, see how to encourage people to come to them etc. and the frustration of seeing a gorgeous spring and early summer be wasted was palpable.

    She knew perfectly well that people were drinking in their gardens and probably breaking rules. They could get away with it. But she couldn't. And now we learn that the people at the top were just blatantly ignoring all the rules.

    Sure we need to do the right thing regardless. But, really, why if all that happens is that you get shafted and others get the benefits, the juicy contracts, the fat pensions, the opportunities. It is emblematic of an approach which is wrong.

    And I - a lawyer who has tried all my life to do the right thing and teach one of the more entitled sectors to do the right thing - now find it increasingly difficult to keep on saying this. It's cynical. It's despairing. It's corrosive. But it's inevitable when those at the top behave in this way.
    May I respond to your header? While I agree with much of it, I'm bothered by your penultimate paragraph:

    What I care about that is that the one lesson to be taken from all this is this: in this country right now you’re a mug if you try and do the right thing. You just get taken for a fool. Your hard work doesn’t matter. Your sacrifices don’t matter. When all the fuss has died down, when these here today/gone tomorrow politicians have departed the stage, this is what will be remembered. Why trust any replacement? They will do the same, probably have done the same, it’s just we have yet to find out about it.

    If I may say so, this is the politics of despair. You're saying "they're all the same", but I think this cynicism is corrosive. I really don't believe they're all the same. Boris is a one-off in this country. Under different governance, 'doing the right thing' would reap rewards. What you're saying is not too far removed from the mantra that all politicians (and by extension governments) are corrupt and self-serving. I don't believe this to be the case, and such beliefs can lead down a sticky path where faith in democracy is undermined, as is possibly evident in the USA.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    IshmaelZ said:

    Starmer should call Johnson a liar tomorrow at PMQs and see if the speaker dares demand he leaves the Commons.

    Either way he wins. The public still has the story in the news.

    Top tip to SKS

    Ask the same question six times. Was the PM at the party?
    ETA whip all your MPs to ask the same question too if called, and make a pact with Blackers to ask the same q 3 times too.
    I can’t agree with you Z. That’s nonsense. SKS must ask two questions on cladding, two on government VAT windfall on energy bills (even my math understand 6% of lots more is lots more) and two on smart motorways.

    The only time Starmer has been listened to or taken remotely seriously is in the last couple of months, why on earth should he want the reason for that to so quickly resign or be vonked? The opposition parties are not on the side of anyone wanting a swift finish to this Conservative Party crisis.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714

    Richard Frediani
    @BBCFrediani
    ·
    1h
    Still waiting to find out if a Minister will turn out for the Government at 7.30am on #BBCBreakfast on Wednesday?
    Lots of questions about Downing Street parties.
    The chair is waiting to be filled…
    Labour’s
    @AngelaRayner
    and Lib Dem leader
    @EdwardJDavey
    already confirmed.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Brexit, as a political cause, is dead.
    As an administrative inconvenience, it will be with us for decades.

    As the administrative inconveniences mount, so the political cause grows.

    Brexit is alive and kicking...
    We'll need to see rejoin polling at around 65% before a Labour government would have the nerve to try and take us back in. The EU would need to be convinced, too, that we're back in for good.
    The only way to lock us in for good (which I agree the EU would want) is to demand euro membership. Would we ever pay that price?

    Hmm
    It’s a measure of Brexit’s deadness that you are even posing this question.

    As it happens, I agree that Rejoin is not at all feasible, let alone euro-membership, but some sort of re-entry into the single market (Swiss style) seems a reasonably likely trajectory.
    That will be the next step, to a EEA style deal. Then the realisation that we want a seat at the top table will become the motivating factor for patriotic Tories.
    More wishful thinking Foxy. EEA or EFTA is certainly a possibility if, sadly, only a distant one. But rejoining seems to me to be a complete impossibility. Both the UK and the EU will have changed in ways that will make it unpalatable to both sides.
    I think it's more likely than not that Britain will be back in the EEA in some form in the next decade. Full rejoining, on the other hand, looks very unlikely to me, for now.
    It is the great trap for Rejoiners. If we are back in the EEA it becomes much harder to argue for all the political rubbish of full membership because we have the Single Market benefits.
    Doesn't EEA come with Free Movement? That's the Big Red Line for both sides

    Now we are out and have (sort of) control of our borders, I cannot see a UK government agreeing to give that up. Or risk the wrath of the voters as migration explodes from Eastern Europe again

    So it would take some compromise on FoM from the EU, but they don't seem willing or likely to do that, either (and fair enough)
  • Pulpstar said:

    I thought he could somehow survive this. Maybe he still will the fucker.

    But those front pages? Jeez. No marginal seat tory will sleep tonight

    At least he still has the Daily Express on side - going with the Boris-the-flawed-genius approach.
    To err is human...

    Boris seems completely addicted to erring though,
    With some umming tbf.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714

    Christopher HopeMemo
    @christopherhope
    NEW Strong rumours in Parliament from two Government sources tonight that Boris Johnson will make some sort of statement tomorrow lunchtime about partygate just before Prime Minister's Questions.
  • Pulpstar said:

    I thought he could somehow survive this. Maybe he still will the fucker.

    But those front pages? Jeez. No marginal seat tory will sleep tonight

    At least he still has the Daily Express on side - going with the Boris-the-flawed-genius approach.
    To err is human...

    Boris seems completely addicted to erring though,
    Disagree.

    He makes some mistakes and gets some things right.

    The dangerous things are that the mistakes which are damaging are completely careless and that he seems incapable of learning from them.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    As I said earlier today, this will be the silver blade:


    AN MP wept in Parliament yesterday as he revealed his mother-in-law died alone of Covid — while No 10 aides held parties.

    Sun
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,908

    “We’re all in this together”

    Fwiw my kipper super Boris fan mate text me out of the blue today saying “Boris doing himself no favours lately”

    Has ISAM shot himself?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Candidates announced for the Southend West by election on February 3rd.


    Christopher Anderson - Freedom Alliance
    Catherine Blaiklock - English Democrats
    Olga Childs - Independent
    Ben Downton - Heritage Party
    Anna Firth - Conservative Party
    Jayda Fransen - Independent
    Steve Laws - UKIP
    Graham Moore - English Constitution Party
    Jason Pilley - Psychedelic Movement
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-59956467

    There must be a chance the Tories won’t win it, if only it was clear who might be the contender(s) there could be a betting op.
    Jason Pilley opposes selling energy drinks to children and supports revitalising British high streets. So the Psychedelic Movement are making a clear pitch for hard-working families.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Brexit, as a political cause, is dead.
    As an administrative inconvenience, it will be with us for decades.

    As the administrative inconveniences mount, so the political cause grows.

    Brexit is alive and kicking...
    We'll need to see rejoin polling at around 65% before a Labour government would have the nerve to try and take us back in. The EU would need to be convinced, too, that we're back in for good.
    The only way to lock us in for good (which I agree the EU would want) is to demand euro membership. Would we ever pay that price?

    Hmm
    It’s a measure of Brexit’s deadness that you are even posing this question.

    As it happens, I agree that Rejoin is not at all feasible, let alone euro-membership, but some sort of re-entry into the single market (Swiss style) seems a reasonably likely trajectory.
    That will be the next step, to a EEA style deal. Then the realisation that we want a seat at the top table will become the motivating factor for patriotic Tories.
    More wishful thinking Foxy. EEA or EFTA is certainly a possibility if, sadly, only a distant one. But rejoining seems to me to be a complete impossibility. Both the UK and the EU will have changed in ways that will make it unpalatable to both sides.
    I think it's more likely than not that Britain will be back in the EEA in some form in the next decade. Full rejoining, on the other hand, looks very unlikely to me, for now.
    It is the great trap for Rejoiners. If we are back in the EEA it becomes much harder to argue for all the political rubbish of full membership because we have the Single Market benefits.
    As a Rejoiner, EEA membership has always rather cynically appealed to me.

    As you say, all the Single Market benefits, but the rules are set by the grown-ups in Brussels rather than the halfwits in Westminster.

    Works for me. As a centre-left voter in a rural constituency, it’s not like my vote ever counts for anything, so I’d hardly feel disenfranchised - to the contrary, on average the European polity will be closer to my views than the British one.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Brexit, as a political cause, is dead.
    As an administrative inconvenience, it will be with us for decades.

    As the administrative inconveniences mount, so the political cause grows.

    Brexit is alive and kicking...
    We'll need to see rejoin polling at around 65% before a Labour government would have the nerve to try and take us back in. The EU would need to be convinced, too, that we're back in for good.
    The only way to lock us in for good (which I agree the EU would want) is to demand euro membership. Would we ever pay that price?

    Hmm
    It’s a measure of Brexit’s deadness that you are even posing this question.

    As it happens, I agree that Rejoin is not at all feasible, let alone euro-membership, but some sort of re-entry into the single market (Swiss style) seems a reasonably likely trajectory.
    That will be the next step, to a EEA style deal. Then the realisation that we want a seat at the top table will become the motivating factor for patriotic Tories.
    More wishful thinking Foxy. EEA or EFTA is certainly a possibility if, sadly, only a distant one. But rejoining seems to me to be a complete impossibility. Both the UK and the EU will have changed in ways that will make it unpalatable to both sides.
    I think it's more likely than not that Britain will be back in the EEA in some form in the next decade. Full rejoining, on the other hand, looks very unlikely to me, for now.
    It is the great trap for Rejoiners. If we are back in the EEA it becomes much harder to argue for all the political rubbish of full membership because we have the Single Market benefits.
    Doesn't EEA come with Free Movement? That's the Big Red Line for both sides

    Now we are out and have (sort of) control of our borders, I cannot see a UK government agreeing to give that up. Or risk the wrath of the voters as migration explodes from Eastern Europe again

    So it would take some compromise on FoM from the EU, but they don't seem willing or likely to do that, either (and fair enough)
    Not now with any fecking Brexit shite!

    A prime minister could fall in the next 48 hours.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    .

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    In 2020 many of the various holidays and feast days fell conveniently on a Friday or on a weekend.

    I'm curious as to how that is different to any other year ?

    Bank holidays are always on Fridays or Mondays.

    I'm thinking of VE Day and Robbie Burns day - which fell on a Saturday, for instance. There were a number of long weekends like that where Daughter had plans for special events etc to maximise revenue. I remember her telling me that she was looking forward to planning all these events because having got her first year under her belt she could really push the boat out in the second.

    Alas ....
    Thanks.

    But Burns Night is in January so wouldn't have been affected by covid in 2020.
    An example. Easter was late so better weather. The VE Day weekend - gorgeous weather - could have been a great earner etc. Hospitality people are always looking ahead to plan events, see how to encourage people to come to them etc. and the frustration of seeing a gorgeous spring and early summer be wasted was palpable.

    She knew perfectly well that people were drinking in their gardens and probably breaking rules. They could get away with it. But she couldn't. And now we learn that the people at the top were just blatantly ignoring all the rules.

    Sure we need to do the right thing regardless. But, really, why if all that happens is that you get shafted and others get the benefits, the juicy contracts, the fat pensions, the opportunities. It is emblematic of an approach which is wrong.

    And I - a lawyer who has tried all my life to do the right thing and teach one of the more entitled sectors to do the right thing - now find it increasingly difficult to keep on saying this. It's cynical. It's despairing. It's corrosive. But it's inevitable when those at the top behave in this way.
    May I respond to your header? While I agree with much of it, I'm bothered by your penultimate paragraph:

    What I care about that is that the one lesson to be taken from all this is this: in this country right now you’re a mug if you try and do the right thing. You just get taken for a fool. Your hard work doesn’t matter. Your sacrifices don’t matter. When all the fuss has died down, when these here today/gone tomorrow politicians have departed the stage, this is what will be remembered. Why trust any replacement? They will do the same, probably have done the same, it’s just we have yet to find out about it.

    If I may say so, this is the politics of despair. You're saying "they're all the same", but I think this cynicism is corrosive. I really don't believe they're all the same. Boris is a one-off in this country. Under different governance, 'doing the right thing' would reap rewards. What you're saying is not too far removed from the mantra that all politicians (and by extension governments) are corrupt and self-serving. I don't believe this to be the case, and such beliefs can lead down a sticky path where faith in democracy is undermined, as is possibly evident in the USA.
    The qualification there is “in this country right now”.
    I don’t believe for a moment that Cyclefree is advocating a politics of despair - rather pointing out that that’s where this government is taking us.

    If Johnson remains in power, then it’s not just a “one-off” politician, it’s his entire party.
  • HYUFD said:

    Candidates announced for the Southend West by election on February 3rd.


    Christopher Anderson - Freedom Alliance
    Catherine Blaiklock - English Democrats
    Olga Childs - Independent
    Ben Downton - Heritage Party
    Anna Firth - Conservative Party
    Jayda Fransen - Independent
    Steve Laws - UKIP
    Graham Moore - English Constitution Party
    Jason Pilley - Psychedelic Movement
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-59956467

    That's Catherine Blaiklock, the co-founder and first leader of The Brexit Party, standing for the English Democrats.

    So, anyway, we've got a range of right-wing to far right fringe candidates in the English Democrats, Heritage Party, Fransen the fascist, UKIP and the English Constitution Party. What's Childs' manifesto? Is there anyone for someone left of the Conservative Party to vote for?
    Will be interesting to see if the Tories do better than Tracey Brabin did in 2016, seems quite likely they could get 90%+ and turnout could go easily below 20%.

    I now definitely think it was an error in hindsight for the main opposition parties not to fight the Batley and Spen 2016 and this by election. The precedent will be difficult to be reverse in future if similar atrocities.

    I think Labour could have managed 35%+ if it was a normal by election in the current circumstances.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    2000+ deaths in the US today, so far (293 in NY alone). This wave will probably be their second biggest, in terms of daily deaths, but shorter than the others

    The bug is in retreat, but it is far from finished?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Brexit, as a political cause, is dead.
    As an administrative inconvenience, it will be with us for decades.

    As the administrative inconveniences mount, so the political cause grows.

    Brexit is alive and kicking...
    We'll need to see rejoin polling at around 65% before a Labour government would have the nerve to try and take us back in. The EU would need to be convinced, too, that we're back in for good.
    The only way to lock us in for good (which I agree the EU would want) is to demand euro membership. Would we ever pay that price?

    Hmm
    It’s a measure of Brexit’s deadness that you are even posing this question.

    As it happens, I agree that Rejoin is not at all feasible, let alone euro-membership, but some sort of re-entry into the single market (Swiss style) seems a reasonably likely trajectory.
    That will be the next step, to a EEA style deal. Then the realisation that we want a seat at the top table will become the motivating factor for patriotic Tories.
    More wishful thinking Foxy. EEA or EFTA is certainly a possibility if, sadly, only a distant one. But rejoining seems to me to be a complete impossibility. Both the UK and the EU will have changed in ways that will make it unpalatable to both sides.
    I think it's more likely than not that Britain will be back in the EEA in some form in the next decade. Full rejoining, on the other hand, looks very unlikely to me, for now.
    It is the great trap for Rejoiners. If we are back in the EEA it becomes much harder to argue for all the political rubbish of full membership because we have the Single Market benefits.
    Doesn't EEA come with Free Movement? That's the Big Red Line for both sides

    Now we are out and have (sort of) control of our borders, I cannot see a UK government agreeing to give that up. Or risk the wrath of the voters as migration explodes from Eastern Europe again

    So it would take some compromise on FoM from the EU, but they don't seem willing or likely to do that, either (and fair enough)
    We have less control of our borders than before.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Brexit, as a political cause, is dead.
    As an administrative inconvenience, it will be with us for decades.

    As the administrative inconveniences mount, so the political cause grows.

    Brexit is alive and kicking...
    We'll need to see rejoin polling at around 65% before a Labour government would have the nerve to try and take us back in. The EU would need to be convinced, too, that we're back in for good.
    The only way to lock us in for good (which I agree the EU would want) is to demand euro membership. Would we ever pay that price?

    Hmm
    It’s a measure of Brexit’s deadness that you are even posing this question.

    As it happens, I agree that Rejoin is not at all feasible, let alone euro-membership, but some sort of re-entry into the single market (Swiss style) seems a reasonably likely trajectory.
    That will be the next step, to a EEA style deal. Then the realisation that we want a seat at the top table will become the motivating factor for patriotic Tories.
    More wishful thinking Foxy. EEA or EFTA is certainly a possibility if, sadly, only a distant one. But rejoining seems to me to be a complete impossibility. Both the UK and the EU will have changed in ways that will make it unpalatable to both sides.
    I think it's more likely than not that Britain will be back in the EEA in some form in the next decade. Full rejoining, on the other hand, looks very unlikely to me, for now.
    It is the great trap for Rejoiners. If we are back in the EEA it becomes much harder to argue for all the political rubbish of full membership because we have the Single Market benefits.
    Doesn't EEA come with Free Movement? That's the Big Red Line for both sides

    Now we are out and have (sort of) control of our borders, I cannot see a UK government agreeing to give that up. Or risk the wrath of the voters as migration explodes from Eastern Europe again

    So it would take some compromise on FoM from the EU, but they don't seem willing or likely to do that, either (and fair enough)
    We have less control of our borders than before.
    That's really not true. The optics in the Channel are bad (and Tory failure to solve it is lamentable and spineless) but these people constitute less than 10% of net migration
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355

    HYUFD said:

    Candidates announced for the Southend West by election on February 3rd.


    Christopher Anderson - Freedom Alliance
    Catherine Blaiklock - English Democrats
    Olga Childs - Independent
    Ben Downton - Heritage Party
    Anna Firth - Conservative Party
    Jayda Fransen - Independent
    Steve Laws - UKIP
    Graham Moore - English Constitution Party
    Jason Pilley - Psychedelic Movement
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-59956467

    I’m pretty sure that, if I lived in Southend, that would be the one time in my life that I’d vote Tory.
    I can't find any information about Olga Childs, and what platform she is standing on. I had some hopes that the Psychedelic Movement might be worthy of a vote, but from what little I have found I think not. I'm not a big fan of facebook myself, but anyone who decides to leave it for gab, citing the US First Amendment, because one of their posts on facebook about BLM was censored... Well. I have my doubts.

    Not sure I could vote Tory, though. If I lived in the constituency I might have had to spoil my ballot.

    Though, after reading some of the nonsense on the various websites of the micro far-right parties, maybe I would vote Tory. At least Anna Firth is spreading anti-vaccine nonsense.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,051
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    I doubt any Tory PM, not just Boris, will impose any more Covid restrictions again. Especially on the vaccinated.

    Credibly they could not do so and their supporters and MPs will not allow them to do so. Only way we may get more restrictions in England is a Starmer premiership with Labour having won most seats, which is more likely than not now

    What if there were a new variant with vaccine breakthrough and greater severity spreading rapidly? I don't expect that to happen, but it could.
    Omicron's main advantage is being able to replicate quickly in the nose and throat so I doubt a more disease causing strain would be able to outcompete it whilst it's merrily going through populations. After it's finished, and people have immunity to Omicron (From having had omicron) I suppose something else might come along and replace it.
    Unlike alpha and original wuhan we never saw the delta wave particularly go down.
    There is an understandable desire to hope that the worst is over, that we're winning the war against COVID-19 and that everything will go back to normal. And indeed that it will be another 100 years before we face the same again.

    That may be true. I hope it will be. But viruses don't obey human timetables or news cycles. It is possible that we get a nasty new SARS-CoV-2 variant. It is also possible that we get some other pandemic (a new flu pandemic, another coronavirus, a filovirus like Ebola, a flavivirus like Zika). I don't think people should be hiding scared of such possibilities, but I do think we should beef up planning for future pandemics and not slip into complacency because we've made it through COVID. There is a possibility that we will have to do something similar again in our lifetimes, or indeed something different but equally awful.

    Anyway, just thought I'd say that, in case anybody wanted nightmares tonight.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,375
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Cyclefree said:

    Cyclefree said:

    In 2020 many of the various holidays and feast days fell conveniently on a Friday or on a weekend.

    I'm curious as to how that is different to any other year ?

    Bank holidays are always on Fridays or Mondays.

    I'm thinking of VE Day and Robbie Burns day - which fell on a Saturday, for instance. There were a number of long weekends like that where Daughter had plans for special events etc to maximise revenue. I remember her telling me that she was looking forward to planning all these events because having got her first year under her belt she could really push the boat out in the second.

    Alas ....
    Thanks.

    But Burns Night is in January so wouldn't have been affected by covid in 2020.
    An example. Easter was late so better weather. The VE Day weekend - gorgeous weather - could have been a great earner etc. Hospitality people are always looking ahead to plan events, see how to encourage people to come to them etc. and the frustration of seeing a gorgeous spring and early summer be wasted was palpable.

    She knew perfectly well that people were drinking in their gardens and probably breaking rules. They could get away with it. But she couldn't. And now we learn that the people at the top were just blatantly ignoring all the rules.

    Sure we need to do the right thing regardless. But, really, why if all that happens is that you get shafted and others get the benefits, the juicy contracts, the fat pensions, the opportunities. It is emblematic of an approach which is wrong.

    And I - a lawyer who has tried all my life to do the right thing and teach one of the more entitled sectors to do the right thing - now find it increasingly difficult to keep on saying this. It's cynical. It's despairing. It's corrosive. But it's inevitable when those at the top behave in this way.
    May I respond to your header? While I agree with much of it, I'm bothered by your penultimate paragraph:

    What I care about that is that the one lesson to be taken from all this is this: in this country right now you’re a mug if you try and do the right thing. You just get taken for a fool. Your hard work doesn’t matter. Your sacrifices don’t matter. When all the fuss has died down, when these here today/gone tomorrow politicians have departed the stage, this is what will be remembered. Why trust any replacement? They will do the same, probably have done the same, it’s just we have yet to find out about it.

    If I may say so, this is the politics of despair. You're saying "they're all the same", but I think this cynicism is corrosive. I really don't believe they're all the same. Boris is a one-off in this country. Under different governance, 'doing the right thing' would reap rewards. What you're saying is not too far removed from the mantra that all politicians (and by extension governments) are corrupt and self-serving. I don't believe this to be the case, and such beliefs can lead down a sticky path where faith in democracy is undermined, as is possibly evident in the USA.
    The qualification there is “in this country right now”.
    I don’t believe for a moment that Cyclefree is advocating a politics of despair - rather pointing out that that’s where this government is taking us.

    If Johnson remains in power, then it’s not just a “one-off” politician, it’s his entire party.
    I guess it's the "why trust any replacement?" I was reacting to. That sounded like any replacement in the future, not just a Tory successor to Boris.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625
    https://twitter.com/wsjopinion/status/1480957448550854656

    A perfect storm in the Democratic Party is making a once-unfathomable scenario plausible: a political comeback for Hillary Clinton in 2024
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    From the Red Wall...



    Darren Grimes
    @darrengrimes_
    ·
    3h
    My vote for Boris was the proudest and surest I’d ever cast. Communities like my own would have their vote for Brexit respected and finally receive the attention they deserve. I’m afraid Boris appears to have taken that golden opportunity for granted. It is a truly tragic shame.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Pulpstar said:

    I thought he could somehow survive this. Maybe he still will the fucker.

    But those front pages? Jeez. No marginal seat tory will sleep tonight

    At least he still has the Daily Express on side - going with the Boris-the-flawed-genius approach.
    To err is human...

    Boris seems completely addicted to erring though,
    Disagree.

    He makes some mistakes and gets some things right.

    The dangerous things are that the mistakes which are damaging are completely careless and that he seems incapable of learning from them.
    He made some mistakes and got some things right.

    The fatal thing was that the mistakes which were damaging were completely careless and that he was incapable of learning from them.

    He is history.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485


    Richard Frediani
    @BBCFrediani
    ·
    1h
    Still waiting to find out if a Minister will turn out for the Government at 7.30am on #BBCBreakfast on Wednesday?
    Lots of questions about Downing Street parties.
    The chair is waiting to be filled…
    Labour’s
    @AngelaRayner
    and Lib Dem leader
    @EdwardJDavey
    already confirmed.

    Will Red Angela be doing PMQs? Is Starmer back from covid yet?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Candidates announced for the Southend West by election on February 3rd.


    Christopher Anderson - Freedom Alliance
    Catherine Blaiklock - English Democrats
    Olga Childs - Independent
    Ben Downton - Heritage Party
    Anna Firth - Conservative Party
    Jayda Fransen - Independent
    Steve Laws - UKIP
    Graham Moore - English Constitution Party
    Jason Pilley - Psychedelic Movement
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-59956467

    There must be a chance the Tories won’t win it, if only it was clear who might be the contender(s) there could be a betting op.
    Jason Pilley opposes selling energy drinks to children and supports revitalising British high streets. So the Psychedelic Movement are making a clear pitch for hard-working families.
    Christ! Not the bloody High Street again. He's lost my theoretical support.
    I'd vote for any candidate who said. "The High Street is never again going to be the High Street of your youth. You're getting old and the world has moved on. Deal with it."
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497


    Richard Frediani
    @BBCFrediani
    ·
    1h
    Still waiting to find out if a Minister will turn out for the Government at 7.30am on #BBCBreakfast on Wednesday?
    Lots of questions about Downing Street parties.
    The chair is waiting to be filled…
    Labour’s
    @AngelaRayner
    and Lib Dem leader
    @EdwardJDavey
    already confirmed.

    The important questions you need to push Ed, about cladding and smart motorway fiasco are in my post in this thread. If you could clarify the libdem position on cultivating and modifying pigs for human transplants that would be helpful too. Thanx.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    I doubt any Tory PM, not just Boris, will impose any more Covid restrictions again. Especially on the vaccinated.

    Credibly they could not do so and their supporters and MPs will not allow them to do so. Only way we may get more restrictions in England is a Starmer premiership with Labour having won most seats, which is more likely than not now

    What if there were a new variant with vaccine breakthrough and greater severity spreading rapidly? I don't expect that to happen, but it could.
    Omicron's main advantage is being able to replicate quickly in the nose and throat so I doubt a more disease causing strain would be able to outcompete it whilst it's merrily going through populations. After it's finished, and people have immunity to Omicron (From having had omicron) I suppose something else might come along and replace it.
    Unlike alpha and original wuhan we never saw the delta wave particularly go down.
    There is an understandable desire to hope that the worst is over, that we're winning the war against COVID-19 and that everything will go back to normal. And indeed that it will be another 100 years before we face the same again.

    That may be true. I hope it will be. But viruses don't obey human timetables or news cycles. It is possible that we get a nasty new SARS-CoV-2 variant. It is also possible that we get some other pandemic (a new flu pandemic, another coronavirus, a filovirus like Ebola, a flavivirus like Zika). I don't think people should be hiding scared of such possibilities, but I do think we should beef up planning for future pandemics and not slip into complacency because we've made it through COVID. There is a possibility that we will have to do something similar again in our lifetimes, or indeed something different but equally awful.

    Anyway, just thought I'd say that, in case anybody wanted nightmares tonight.
    I had lunch with a friend today, who specialised in "disaster preparedness" in a previous career (he now hunts down art traffickers). His "pro" opinion was that we will get at least one more seriously nasty variant

    HOWEVER this is the same guy who said, when I warned him about Coronavirus in early 2020, "pff, it's nothing"

    We actually had a macabre bet as to how many Brits would die by the summer of 2020. He lost, by an order of magnitude

    So take with a big pinch of salt
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,133
    edited January 2022
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Brexit, as a political cause, is dead.
    As an administrative inconvenience, it will be with us for decades.

    As the administrative inconveniences mount, so the political cause grows.

    Brexit is alive and kicking...
    We'll need to see rejoin polling at around 65% before a Labour government would have the nerve to try and take us back in. The EU would need to be convinced, too, that we're back in for good.
    The only way to lock us in for good (which I agree the EU would want) is to demand euro membership. Would we ever pay that price?

    Hmm
    It’s a measure of Brexit’s deadness that you are even posing this question.

    As it happens, I agree that Rejoin is not at all feasible, let alone euro-membership, but some sort of re-entry into the single market (Swiss style) seems a reasonably likely trajectory.
    That will be the next step, to a EEA style deal. Then the realisation that we want a seat at the top table will become the motivating factor for patriotic Tories.
    More wishful thinking Foxy. EEA or EFTA is certainly a possibility if, sadly, only a distant one. But rejoining seems to me to be a complete impossibility. Both the UK and the EU will have changed in ways that will make it unpalatable to both sides.
    I think it's more likely than not that Britain will be back in the EEA in some form in the next decade. Full rejoining, on the other hand, looks very unlikely to me, for now.
    It is the great trap for Rejoiners. If we are back in the EEA it becomes much harder to argue for all the political rubbish of full membership because we have the Single Market benefits.
    Doesn't EEA come with Free Movement? That's the Big Red Line for both sides

    Now we are out and have (sort of) control of our borders, I cannot see a UK government agreeing to give that up. Or risk the wrath of the voters as migration explodes from Eastern Europe again

    So it would take some compromise on FoM from the EU, but they don't seem willing or likely to do that, either (and fair enough)
    But a large part of disiliusion and disengagement from Brexit at the moment among the Tory core vote is that borders are no more under control. In fact, because of reduced European co-operation, they're in some ways under less control.

    Partly because of this, it's clearer than ever to me that a significant part of the 2016 vote was actually a vote against non-European migration. The sordid reality is that the Tories could probably subtly sell the argument back to some of their supporters along dog-whistle racial lines, particularly if their anxieties increase vis-a-vis more immigration from the Indian subcontinent with new trade deals, for instance,

    That's quite a grim reality to start from, but I think there's quite a lot in it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Andrew Male
    @Andr6wMale
    ·
    8h
    Maybe it needs to be repeated that I was not at my wife's bedside when she died. I was allowed to watch her die on the NHS equivalent of a Zoom call.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    edited January 2022
    Leon said:

    2000+ deaths in the US today, so far (293 in NY alone). This wave will probably be their second biggest, in terms of daily deaths, but shorter than the others

    The bug is in retreat, but it is far from finished?

    We have our old friend to come, trust suddenly "finding" loads of people who died of covid weeks, sometimes months ago.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    I mean, you know, FOR FUCK'S SAKE, ONLY ABOUT TWO YEARS TOO LATE



    "Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab - but feared debate could hurt ‘international harmony’

    "Emails to Dr Anthony Fauci show ‘likely’ explanation identified at start of coronavirus pandemic, but there were worries about saying so"


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/11/scientists-believed-covid-leaked-wuhan-lab-feared-debate-could/


    "Leading British and US scientists thought it was likely that Covid accidentally leaked from a laboratory but were concerned that further debate would harm science in China, emails show.

    "An email from Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, on February 2 2020 said that “a likely explanation” was that Covid had rapidly evolved from a Sars-like virus inside human tissue in a low-security lab.

    "The email, to Dr Anthony Fauci and Dr Francis Collins of the US National Institutes of Health, went on to say that such evolution may have “accidentally created a virus primed for rapid transmission between humans”."

  • IshmaelZ said:

    Starmer should call Johnson a liar tomorrow at PMQs and see if the speaker dares demand he leaves the Commons.

    Either way he wins. The public still has the story in the news.

    Top tip to SKS

    Ask the same question six times. Was the PM at the party?
    ETA whip all your MPs to ask the same question too if called, and make a pact with Blackers to ask the same q 3 times too.
    Perhaps some opposition mps will bring their own bottles and wave them about, though I'm sure it would break a multitude of HoC rules. Perhaps a cardboard cutout of such?
    Dennis Skinner would have been your man for the task.

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    I agree. I’m surprised myself how annoyed I am about what seems a comparatively minor transgression in objective terms.

    Although as my wife noted this evening it’s their “let them eat cake” moment

    I'm more annoyed at Boris frittering away a great big win, a lot of goodwill, an 80 seat majority, and probably his own job, with a series of such ridiculous unforced errors. Is it Long Covid destroying his brain? These are the actions of a clueless man, which he wasn't before - erratic, but never clueless

    He has now ushered in the likelihood of a feeble Starmer-led Coalition government, hijacked by the trouble-making SNP, which is a recipe for more stagnation, division and relative decline. Brilliant, not

    He's self-indulgent, doesn't do details and has a limited attention span.

    Everyone connected with him knows about his flaws as well as his positive attributes.

    In many ways he is like his hero Churchill.

    But what Churchill had was an Alanbrooke and that's what Boris lacks.

    Why ?

    Did he feel he didn't need one ? Did he not want any constraints ? Is everyone else in Westminster some combination of self-serving schemer and fuckwit ?
    "In many ways he is like his hero Churchill."

    Name some.

    Churchill was a fanatical details man, a masterful orator, a horseman and warrior, a hugely productive and disciplined writer and historian, and a marked non-wanker. He is also not Johnson's hero. Johnson's hero is Johnson, he pretends it is Churchill in the obviously not forlorn hope that exceptionally silly people will see some sort of fantastical resemblance between the two of them.
    Was Churchill a fanatical details man ?

    I've always had the opposite impression.

    Certainly his career went from fuck-up to fuck-up eg Gallipoli and gold standard and the failure of Norway 1940 could be laid at his door as well but fortunately for Churchill brought down Chamberlain instead.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sticky_bomb

    "The grenade had several faults with its design. In tests, it failed to adhere to dusty or muddy tanks and if the user was not careful after freeing the grenade from its casing, it could easily stick to their uniform. The Ordnance Board of the War Department did not approve the grenade for use by the British Army, but intervention by the prime minister, Winston Churchill, led to the grenade going into production. Between 1940 and 1943, approximately 2.5 million were produced. It was primarily issued to the Home Guard but was also used by British and Commonwealth forces in North Africa, accounting for six German tanks. It was used by Allied Forces on the Anzio Beachhead, including the First Special Service Force; as well as by Australian Army units during the New Guinea campaign. The French Resistance were also issued a quantity of the grenades."

    I call that fanatical attention to detail, Boris would have left the decision to the Minister for Bombs (which would actually be the correct course of action).
    But wasn't that a case of enthusiastic meddling by Churchill ?

    Which in that case may have been successful.

    I'm sure Churchill did plenty of enthusiastic meddling which turned out to be rather less successful. For example:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dodecanese_campaign
    I think we can all agree that Churchill was sometimes whimsical, self indulgent, Quixotic, meddling and obsessive, but he wasn't a lazy cnut.
    Churchill was also a heavy drinker and smoker and liked wallowing in (full?) baths. I bet he overindulged on food as well.

    How much of that would be tolerated today if we had rationing ?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Brexit, as a political cause, is dead.
    As an administrative inconvenience, it will be with us for decades.

    As the administrative inconveniences mount, so the political cause grows.

    Brexit is alive and kicking...
    We'll need to see rejoin polling at around 65% before a Labour government would have the nerve to try and take us back in. The EU would need to be convinced, too, that we're back in for good.
    The only way to lock us in for good (which I agree the EU would want) is to demand euro membership. Would we ever pay that price?

    Hmm
    It’s a measure of Brexit’s deadness that you are even posing this question.

    As it happens, I agree that Rejoin is not at all feasible, let alone euro-membership, but some sort of re-entry into the single market (Swiss style) seems a reasonably likely trajectory.
    That will be the next step, to a EEA style deal. Then the realisation that we want a seat at the top table will become the motivating factor for patriotic Tories.
    More wishful thinking Foxy. EEA or EFTA is certainly a possibility if, sadly, only a distant one. But rejoining seems to me to be a complete impossibility. Both the UK and the EU will have changed in ways that will make it unpalatable to both sides.
    I think it's more likely than not that Britain will be back in the EEA in some form in the next decade. Full rejoining, on the other hand, looks very unlikely to me, for now.
    It is the great trap for Rejoiners. If we are back in the EEA it becomes much harder to argue for all the political rubbish of full membership because we have the Single Market benefits.
    Doesn't EEA come with Free Movement? That's the Big Red Line for both sides

    Now we are out and have (sort of) control of our borders, I cannot see a UK government agreeing to give that up. Or risk the wrath of the voters as migration explodes from Eastern Europe again

    So it would take some compromise on FoM from the EU, but they don't seem willing or likely to do that, either (and fair enough)
    We have less control of our borders than before.
    That's really not true. The optics in the Channel are bad (and Tory failure to solve it is lamentable and spineless) but these people constitute less than 10% of net migration
    Bloody hell, are you joking? Cos if ever a statistic needed standing on its head - are you saying channel crossers are only a bit less than 10% of net migration?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714


    Richard Frediani
    @BBCFrediani
    ·
    1h
    Still waiting to find out if a Minister will turn out for the Government at 7.30am on #BBCBreakfast on Wednesday?
    Lots of questions about Downing Street parties.
    The chair is waiting to be filled…
    Labour’s
    @AngelaRayner
    and Lib Dem leader
    @EdwardJDavey
    already confirmed.

    The important questions you need to push Ed, about cladding and smart motorway fiasco are in my post in this thread. If you could clarify the libdem position on cultivating and modifying pigs for human transplants that would be helpful too. Thanx.
    If you think one iota of that matters as of today's revelations about Johnson and Downing Street then I humbly suggest you haven't a fecking clue about politics.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    ….
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497


    Richard Frediani
    @BBCFrediani
    ·
    1h
    Still waiting to find out if a Minister will turn out for the Government at 7.30am on #BBCBreakfast on Wednesday?
    Lots of questions about Downing Street parties.
    The chair is waiting to be filled…
    Labour’s
    @AngelaRayner
    and Lib Dem leader
    @EdwardJDavey
    already confirmed.

    The important questions you need to push Ed, about cladding and smart motorway fiasco are in my post in this thread. If you could clarify the libdem position on cultivating and modifying pigs for human transplants that would be helpful too. Thanx.
    If you think one iota of that matters as of today's revelations about Johnson and Downing Street then I humbly suggest you haven't a fecking clue about politics.
    That’s very rude.

    Unfortunately for you I think the same about you. How can you demand opposition leader operate in your self interest contrary to his own? National Interest in Starmer’s mind has to be to destroy the conservatives for a generation, not save them in time for the next election!

    Either side of the six questions I have set Starmer, he should compliment the PM on a smart new haircut, and ask him if he has any New Year resolutions.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    edited January 2022

    Andrew Male
    @Andr6wMale
    ·
    8h
    Maybe it needs to be repeated that I was not at my wife's bedside when she died. I was allowed to watch her die on the NHS equivalent of a Zoom call.

    As I said. People are beginning to process the trauma. It wasn't having to wear a mask in Tesco. That was a minor irritation.
    They are looking to assign blame.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714


    Richard Frediani
    @BBCFrediani
    ·
    1h
    Still waiting to find out if a Minister will turn out for the Government at 7.30am on #BBCBreakfast on Wednesday?
    Lots of questions about Downing Street parties.
    The chair is waiting to be filled…
    Labour’s
    @AngelaRayner
    and Lib Dem leader
    @EdwardJDavey
    already confirmed.

    Will Red Angela be doing PMQs? Is Starmer back from covid yet?
    Dunno. But Starmer has two choices. Let Angela go in for the kill like the white shark in Jaws or he does the job and as Julia HB suggested spends ten minutes just saying - were you at the party yes or no.

    My preference - he does it and tells the Commons that Johnson is lying and gets thrown out by Speaker. It shows passion and a will to fight and of course will in due course be shown to be correct.
  • Leon said:

    I mean, you know, FOR FUCK'S SAKE, ONLY ABOUT TWO YEARS TOO LATE



    "Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab - but feared debate could hurt ‘international harmony’

    "Emails to Dr Anthony Fauci show ‘likely’ explanation identified at start of coronavirus pandemic, but there were worries about saying so"


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/11/scientists-believed-covid-leaked-wuhan-lab-feared-debate-could/


    "Leading British and US scientists thought it was likely that Covid accidentally leaked from a laboratory but were concerned that further debate would harm science in China, emails show.

    "An email from Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, on February 2 2020 said that “a likely explanation” was that Covid had rapidly evolved from a Sars-like virus inside human tissue in a low-security lab.

    "The email, to Dr Anthony Fauci and Dr Francis Collins of the US National Institutes of Health, went on to say that such evolution may have “accidentally created a virus primed for rapid transmission between humans”."

    I wonder if they'd have been so concerned about 'international harmony' if it had originated in various other countries.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    I for one am completely gobsmacked, confuzzled, amazed, discombobulated and generally knocked-dahn-with-a-fevver that it turns out the fucking virus FUCKING LIKELY CAME FROM THE FUCKING LAB and all the major scientists thought this was probably true from the off, but they decided to cover it up

    I mean, you know. Who coulda guessed that. Really. What a SURPRISE
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    We seem to be at the Nixon level of this fiasco...



    The Independent
    @Independent
    · 2h
    No 10 staff told to ‘clean up’ phones amid lockdown party allegations, sources claim https://independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/partygate-phones-clean-up-investigation-sue-gray-b1991055.html?utm_content=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Main&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1641933511


    Anna Soubry
    @Anna_Soubry
    Replying to
    @campbellclaret
    Perverting the course of public justice. Max sentence - life imprisonment
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    Leon said:

    I for one am completely gobsmacked, confuzzled, amazed, discombobulated and generally knocked-dahn-with-a-fevver that it turns out the fucking virus FUCKING LIKELY CAME FROM THE FUCKING LAB and all the major scientists thought this was probably true from the off, but they decided to cover it up

    I mean, you know. Who coulda guessed that. Really. What a SURPRISE

    Does anyone actually think that it didn't come from the lab nowadays?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830


    Richard Frediani
    @BBCFrediani
    ·
    1h
    Still waiting to find out if a Minister will turn out for the Government at 7.30am on #BBCBreakfast on Wednesday?
    Lots of questions about Downing Street parties.
    The chair is waiting to be filled…
    Labour’s
    @AngelaRayner
    and Lib Dem leader
    @EdwardJDavey
    already confirmed.

    The important questions you need to push Ed, about cladding and smart motorway fiasco are in my post in this thread. If you could clarify the libdem position on cultivating and modifying pigs for human transplants that would be helpful too. Thanx.
    Is the pig modding thing controversial? Animal welfare or discriminatory vs non-pork religions?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    I mean, you know, FOR FUCK'S SAKE, ONLY ABOUT TWO YEARS TOO LATE



    "Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab - but feared debate could hurt ‘international harmony’

    "Emails to Dr Anthony Fauci show ‘likely’ explanation identified at start of coronavirus pandemic, but there were worries about saying so"


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/11/scientists-believed-covid-leaked-wuhan-lab-feared-debate-could/


    "Leading British and US scientists thought it was likely that Covid accidentally leaked from a laboratory but were concerned that further debate would harm science in China, emails show.

    "An email from Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, on February 2 2020 said that “a likely explanation” was that Covid had rapidly evolved from a Sars-like virus inside human tissue in a low-security lab.

    "The email, to Dr Anthony Fauci and Dr Francis Collins of the US National Institutes of Health, went on to say that such evolution may have “accidentally created a virus primed for rapid transmission between humans”."

    I wonder if they'd have been so concerned about 'international harmony' if it had originated in various other countries.
    If only PB had one sane, lucid, super-intelligent commenter who realised it probably came from the lab about 18 months ago, and kept telling us, and also told us there was a conspiracy to cover it up, right at the top of Anglo-American science. That would have been quite useful
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Leon said:

    I for one am completely gobsmacked, confuzzled, amazed, discombobulated and generally knocked-dahn-with-a-fevver that it turns out the fucking virus FUCKING LIKELY CAME FROM THE FUCKING LAB and all the major scientists thought this was probably true from the off, but they decided to cover it up

    I mean, you know. Who coulda guessed that. Really. What a SURPRISE

    Replace the words 'fucking virus' with 'fucker held a party during lockdown' and there you have it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    I for one am completely gobsmacked, confuzzled, amazed, discombobulated and generally knocked-dahn-with-a-fevver that it turns out the fucking virus FUCKING LIKELY CAME FROM THE FUCKING LAB and all the major scientists thought this was probably true from the off, but they decided to cover it up

    I mean, you know. Who coulda guessed that. Really. What a SURPRISE

    Does anyone actually think that it didn't come from the lab nowadays?
    Of PB-ers @kinabalu for sure, and a couple of others
  • Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Nigelb said:

    Brexit, as a political cause, is dead.
    As an administrative inconvenience, it will be with us for decades.

    As the administrative inconveniences mount, so the political cause grows.

    Brexit is alive and kicking...
    We'll need to see rejoin polling at around 65% before a Labour government would have the nerve to try and take us back in. The EU would need to be convinced, too, that we're back in for good.
    The only way to lock us in for good (which I agree the EU would want) is to demand euro membership. Would we ever pay that price?

    Hmm
    It’s a measure of Brexit’s deadness that you are even posing this question.

    As it happens, I agree that Rejoin is not at all feasible, let alone euro-membership, but some sort of re-entry into the single market (Swiss style) seems a reasonably likely trajectory.
    That will be the next step, to a EEA style deal. Then the realisation that we want a seat at the top table will become the motivating factor for patriotic Tories.
    More wishful thinking Foxy. EEA or EFTA is certainly a possibility if, sadly, only a distant one. But rejoining seems to me to be a complete impossibility. Both the UK and the EU will have changed in ways that will make it unpalatable to both sides.
    I think it's more likely than not that Britain will be back in the EEA in some form in the next decade. Full rejoining, on the other hand, looks very unlikely to me, for now.
    It is the great trap for Rejoiners. If we are back in the EEA it becomes much harder to argue for all the political rubbish of full membership because we have the Single Market benefits.
    Conversely there will be the argument about being the rule-takers without being the rule-makers. In the eyes of some this will discredit Brexit even further, but others will think much more along the Iines you mention. I still think it will probably happen, though, overall, without full rejoining.

    The big question will then be how the immigration aspect is sold back.
    Except the 'rule takers' vs 'rule makers' line is a myth.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    IshmaelZ said:


    Richard Frediani
    @BBCFrediani
    ·
    1h
    Still waiting to find out if a Minister will turn out for the Government at 7.30am on #BBCBreakfast on Wednesday?
    Lots of questions about Downing Street parties.
    The chair is waiting to be filled…
    Labour’s
    @AngelaRayner
    and Lib Dem leader
    @EdwardJDavey
    already confirmed.

    The important questions you need to push Ed, about cladding and smart motorway fiasco are in my post in this thread. If you could clarify the libdem position on cultivating and modifying pigs for human transplants that would be helpful too. Thanx.
    Is the pig modding thing controversial? Animal welfare or discriminatory vs non-pork religions?
    It’s an ethical question isn’t it, like The Island with Scarlett Johansson. Would it be wrong to farm humans in this way, cloned, bred, reared and modified to supply strong healthy organs to humans? But right to do the same with other animals?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    Leon said:

    I for one am completely gobsmacked, confuzzled, amazed, discombobulated and generally knocked-dahn-with-a-fevver that it turns out the fucking virus FUCKING LIKELY CAME FROM THE FUCKING LAB and all the major scientists thought this was probably true from the off, but they decided to cover it up

    I mean, you know. Who coulda guessed that. Really. What a SURPRISE

    Replace the words 'fucking virus' with 'fucker held a party during lockdown' and there you have it.
    Indeed. The utter terror of the virus has gone. Remove that curtain and the true Wizard is revealed.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Ka - fucking - boom...


    Jack Blanchard
    @Jack_Blanchard_
    ·
    1h
    It's not just the national press. It's the local papers, it's the freesheets. Truly dire for No.10
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523

    From the Red Wall...



    Darren Grimes
    @darrengrimes_
    ·
    3h
    My vote for Boris was the proudest and surest I’d ever cast. Communities like my own would have their vote for Brexit respected and finally receive the attention they deserve. I’m afraid Boris appears to have taken that golden opportunity for granted. It is a truly tragic shame.

    Ah, diddums. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darren_Grimes
  • Stunning video in China's Anyang city of 4K students in full hazmat suits, loading buses to quarantine facilities.
    After confirming a total of 84 covid cases, the city has put all of its 5.5 million residents under strict lockdown
    @cnn @firstmove https://t.co/Y58p4ERjdO

    https://twitter.com/selinawangtv/status/1480911976125677571?t=karIcvLI_ivn88iN8WtZSw&s=19
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:


    Richard Frediani
    @BBCFrediani
    ·
    1h
    Still waiting to find out if a Minister will turn out for the Government at 7.30am on #BBCBreakfast on Wednesday?
    Lots of questions about Downing Street parties.
    The chair is waiting to be filled…
    Labour’s
    @AngelaRayner
    and Lib Dem leader
    @EdwardJDavey
    already confirmed.

    The important questions you need to push Ed, about cladding and smart motorway fiasco are in my post in this thread. If you could clarify the libdem position on cultivating and modifying pigs for human transplants that would be helpful too. Thanx.
    Is the pig modding thing controversial? Animal welfare or discriminatory vs non-pork religions?
    It’s an ethical question isn’t it, like The Island with Scarlett Johansson. Would it be wrong to farm humans in this way, cloned, bred, reared and modified to supply strong healthy organs to humans? But right to do the same with other animals?
    Not to me it isn't. Bacon yes, cloned hearts no? Don't see it.

    But then I also never had much of a problem with hunting mammalian vermin with packs of evil trained killer dogs shock horror, so prob not best person to ask.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    There's a James Parnell of Johnson's cabinet sitting quietly tonight wondering whether if she or he does the deed Sunak will follow.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    IshmaelZ said:


    Richard Frediani
    @BBCFrediani
    ·
    1h
    Still waiting to find out if a Minister will turn out for the Government at 7.30am on #BBCBreakfast on Wednesday?
    Lots of questions about Downing Street parties.
    The chair is waiting to be filled…
    Labour’s
    @AngelaRayner
    and Lib Dem leader
    @EdwardJDavey
    already confirmed.

    The important questions you need to push Ed, about cladding and smart motorway fiasco are in my post in this thread. If you could clarify the libdem position on cultivating and modifying pigs for human transplants that would be helpful too. Thanx.
    Is the pig modding thing controversial? Animal welfare or discriminatory vs non-pork religions?
    It’s an ethical question isn’t it, like The Island with Scarlett Johansson. Would it be wrong to farm humans in this way, cloned, bred, reared and modified to supply strong healthy organs to humans? But right to do the same with other animals?
    Farming pigs for meat is widely accepted while farming humans for meat is generally frowned on, I think that transfers straightforwardly across to this.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    https://twitter.com/wsjopinion/status/1480957448550854656

    A perfect storm in the Democratic Party is making a once-unfathomable scenario plausible: a political comeback for Hillary Clinton in 2024

    Look, as an outsider I don't see what was so bad about Hillary Clinton...but she's missed her moment for heaven's sake.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    From the Red Wall...



    Darren Grimes
    @darrengrimes_
    ·
    3h
    My vote for Boris was the proudest and surest I’d ever cast. Communities like my own would have their vote for Brexit respected and finally receive the attention they deserve. I’m afraid Boris appears to have taken that golden opportunity for granted. It is a truly tragic shame.

    Ah, diddums. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darren_Grimes
    "Grimes grew up in a single-parent household in Consett, County Durham, England.[2] He is openly gay."

    The degree of contempt and loathing this inspires in any right-thinking patriot is not even up for debate, but I thought openly expressing it was kinda deprecated these days?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    edited January 2022
    sarahknapton
    @sarahknapton
    ·
    2h
    It’s quite extraordinary that scientists thought it likely Covid-19 evolved in human tissue in a lab, yet kept quiet about it


    https://twitter.com/sarahknapton/status/1481025298674167811?s=20


    "Extraordinary" doesn't really cover it. This virus has killed ~20 million people and is still killing them. It has decimated the world economy.

    And yet the people we rely on to tell us about this stuff, to help us, the scientists, lied and lied again about its probable origins. They ALLEGEDLY enabled con artists like Daszak to get away with, well, a kind of murder?

    It is the greatest scientific scandal of our times, maybe of any time
  • From the Red Wall...



    Darren Grimes
    @darrengrimes_
    ·
    3h
    My vote for Boris was the proudest and surest I’d ever cast. Communities like my own would have their vote for Brexit respected and finally receive the attention they deserve. I’m afraid Boris appears to have taken that golden opportunity for granted. It is a truly tragic shame.

    Ah, diddums. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darren_Grimes
    Grimes was really once a staunchly pro-EU Lib Dem activist? Wow. I haven't followed his career particularly closely but naturally assumed he was a UKIP boy since short trousers.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,647
    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    I for one am completely gobsmacked, confuzzled, amazed, discombobulated and generally knocked-dahn-with-a-fevver that it turns out the fucking virus FUCKING LIKELY CAME FROM THE FUCKING LAB and all the major scientists thought this was probably true from the off, but they decided to cover it up

    I mean, you know. Who coulda guessed that. Really. What a SURPRISE

    Does anyone actually think that it didn't come from the lab nowadays?
    Of PB-ers @kinabalu for sure, and a couple of others
    Meh, I'm not sure. Haven't read enough about it , but don't have the visceral reaction some people have to the idea.

    I think there is a lot of crossover between these people and those who questioned if it really was the Russians who did Salisbury (certainly among my friends). It's an anti western instinct.

    The Russians did Litvinenko. And foot and mouth came from a lab. So perhaps?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    IshmaelZ said:

    From the Red Wall...



    Darren Grimes
    @darrengrimes_
    ·
    3h
    My vote for Boris was the proudest and surest I’d ever cast. Communities like my own would have their vote for Brexit respected and finally receive the attention they deserve. I’m afraid Boris appears to have taken that golden opportunity for granted. It is a truly tragic shame.

    Ah, diddums. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darren_Grimes
    "Grimes grew up in a single-parent household in Consett, County Durham, England.[2] He is openly gay."

    The degree of contempt and loathing this inspires in any right-thinking patriot is not even up for debate, but I thought openly expressing it was kinda deprecated these days?
    Are you implying his identity alone protects him from criticism?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,926
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    RobD said:

    Leon said:

    I for one am completely gobsmacked, confuzzled, amazed, discombobulated and generally knocked-dahn-with-a-fevver that it turns out the fucking virus FUCKING LIKELY CAME FROM THE FUCKING LAB and all the major scientists thought this was probably true from the off, but they decided to cover it up

    I mean, you know. Who coulda guessed that. Really. What a SURPRISE

    Does anyone actually think that it didn't come from the lab nowadays?
    Of PB-ers @kinabalu for sure, and a couple of others
    Meh, I'm not sure. Haven't read enough about it , but don't have the visceral reaction some people have to the idea.

    I think there is a lot of crossover between these people and those who questioned if it really was the Russians who did Salisbury (certainly among my friends). It's an anti western instinct.

    The Russians did Litvinenko. And foot and mouth came from a lab. So perhaps?
    It doesn't even have to be malicious, just an accidental escape of a virus they were studying.
  • Excellent header @Cyclefree captures the true stupidity/self inflicted/self entitled nature of the whole situation.

    I was particularly taken by the parallels between us and his ex-wifes.

    The depressing thing is how this behaviour empowers and enables others.

    During the whole pandemic I have been amazed how compliant people have been, and found it quite warming in a funny sort of way. I like the idea of people understanding the greater good and generally following rules where they can.

    What I find amazing is people could be so stupid to do this in a 'work' setting. This wouldn't be acceptable in any of the gov places I've worked or banks/major orgs. It doesn't pass the "would this look ok if it was on the front of the daily mail" test.

    I wonder if this is just part the 'normal' political cycle of people realising the Tory's are also incompetent so we might as well try Labour (at least they aren't openly nasty).

    Final thought, my Tory voting mum really hates Boris + Sunak as he has been splashing money left right and centre - which as a liberal sort of chap amuses me know end.

    MrB



This discussion has been closed.