When are we expecting the first Clacton by-election poll from the students at Loughborough... I'm expecting a share of 114% for Carswell.
On a more serious note, was interested to read the odd poster yesterday saying that Roger Lord should back down as UKIP candidate out of loyalty to the party... I'm assuming they were just being ironic...
Regarding another sub-thread earlier, should Carswell (or similar) replace Farage as leader and cease the unpleasant national stereotyping and genuinely concentrate on the economic impacts of immigration then a vote for UKIP becomes a possibility...
Thanks for that tip Mike. Current price is 20/1 and I've put a small amount on at that, if only to lay an earlier 3/1 bet with Hills that UKIP will win a by-election this parliament - which if Johnson doesn't stand now looks like a racing certainty.
If the Tories had any sense, they'll put Johnson forward for the by-election whilst postponing the selection in Uxbridge in case he loses. As that would be a no-risk option for Johnson, he might well be persuaded to stand, so 20/1 still seems good value.
"We plan to change Britain with a sweeping redistribution of power: from the state to citizens; from the government to Parliament; from Whitehall to communities; from Brussels to Britain; from bureaucracy to democracy. Taking power away from the political elite and handing it to the man and woman in the street."
It was in the Conservative manifesto and they have been in power for more than four years, surely they might have at least made a start by now even if that nasty Mr. Clegg didn't want to.
Actually yes, quite a lot of progress:
from the government to Parliament - Haven't you noticed how the reforms to Select Committees have made them much more effective and independent of government?
from Brussels to Britain ; Work in progress
from Whitehall to communities Free schools, NHS restructuring
from bureaucracy to democracy The civil service is now smaller than at any time since before the Second World War, 5,000 pages of guidance to schools removed.
Taking power away from the political elite and handing it to the man and woman in the street. The man and woman in the street now gets to choose who is responsible for policing
Etc etc etc.
Look at this list - it's from January 2013 but it is amazing how much people have forgotten already:
What work has been done so far? Given up British liberties for the European Arrest Warrant? An increase in the annual payment to Brussels? Anything else?
That one is still to be sorted, but requires a majority.
What about not handing police powers over to Brussels? Or refusing to allow an increase in the UK contribution to the budget? Did that require a parliamentary majority?
Mr. Llama, I sympathise with that view, but by voting for purity and light [as you see it] rather than dimness you'll end up with total darkness (a sort of reverse Liberal Alliance voter in the 1980s).
I do wonder how I'd vote in a marginal where UKIP stood a chance. In a Balls marginal with Conservatives clearly second it's a rather simpler decision to make.
I feel your pain but really the present government maybe better than the last but it is nowhere near good enough. As Mr. Brooke said the other day the choice some want us to make is to vote for the lesser of two evils. However, some of us don't want to vote for evil at all.
I certainly agree we should strive for the best possible.
But governing is hard, especially in the economic conditions which have prevailed since 2008. There are contradictory aims, external events come and bite you, the levers you have are not very well connected-up to what you want to achieve, your own party is a coalition of people who don't agree on everything, and of course that's even more of a problem when you're in coalition with another party.
There is no panacea or quick solutions. I hate to break it to you, but this is as good as it gets, based on experience of the last 50 years, with the one exception of Maggie. And she had in some ways a more straightforward challenge, since the UK at that time faced one massive problem which absolutely had to be tackled to the exclusion of all other considerations.
So by all means let's try to do better. But let's not ignore what is already being done well, or fall into the nihilistic trap of assuming they are 'all the same'. They're not.
Quite. As someone who had the privilege/horror of working for the Plod's Head of Counter Terrorism during 7/7 and the aftermath - I can't see how anyone, but a complete berk doesn't *get it*. Terrorism is about creating terror after all.
The threat levels are typically raised when chatter escalates or as credible plots cross the radar. Obviously, the Home Sec isn't going to say what the threat is, as that'd let the buggers know they'd been spotted. My knowledge of this area is now pretty rusty as I've been out of loop for about 7yrs - can't imagine it's changed that much since though.
@saddened Perhaps it might be easier for me if they were to simplify the system Relaxed > slightly nervous > wary > frightened > sh1t scared > completely paranoid. We are never not under some kind of threat, moving an abstract and meaningless statement to a higher status changes absolutely nothing, except give the impression those in power are "doing something" This might reassure you, but the rest of us tend the "no sh1t Sherlock?" view of these earth shattering pronouncements.
Speak for yourself. At this level and higher I work more often from home. Memories of desperately trying to contact my financée on 7/7 are still potent. I know I'm just reducing a tiny risk to a miniscule one, but to say it changes absolutely nothing is utter tripe.
"IS extremists represent 'greater and deeper threat to our security than we have known before' - Cameron" Puts Hitler into a proper historical context at least?
Nothing like a bit of exaggeration ! Only left to tell us is the attack will take place in 45 minutes.
I did chuckle when I read the threat has been raised to severe....yet there is no credible intelligence.
The reason ? The incompetent spooks have not returned from the pub yet !
@surbiton The number of extremist groups has increased by one, Therefore there is a greater chance of an attack. While we are all in a panic about the returning jihadists, there is more chance of the next atrocity being carried out by someone who has no obvious connection with IS, or indeed by some home grown nutter with a shotgun and a family grievance.
Richard if you're benchmarking yourself against the last lot, maybe that's where you're going wrong and losing so many of us.
I'm not. I'm benchmarking this government against all the governments I've known in the last half-century.
But even if I wasn't, being better than the last lot is a pretty strong argument, given that the alternative is to get a more feeble version of the last lot back again.
Seriously Richard your miles off and drifting further away.
The last lot coming back just doesn't scare since as one of them put it "there is no more money" and watching them having to clear up their own mess might just be fun.
I won't vote for Cameron at the next GE since basically he's done nothing for me or my family. Or at least nothing that makes a difference
The current lot aren't a total write off:
Hunt has turned out to be a surprisingly good Health Secretary so far Gove took on the vested interest until Cameron knifed him Hammond is a safe pair of hands as is May in what's probably the hardest job of the bunch Cameron I'd give credit for having the brains to stay out of the Indy ref.
But
Osborne is a the wrong man for the job - a politcal CoE not a reformer. David Willetts should have his own circle of Hell reserved for him It doesn't matter who runs Overseas Aid the whole premise is just plain wrong And Cameron can't manage a broad church - which is pretty central to being PM.
The big story today is surely the remarkable turnaround in the Tories fortunes in the latest Populus VI poll - not that you'd notice from the insignificant attention it receives on this site - no sign of the flashy multi-coloured bar charts it would seem when the Blues score a big hit, these are clearly reserved for Labour and even occasionally UKIP triumphs. In the course of just 4 days the Tories have turned a 6% Labour lead into a 1% lead in their favour and yes I'm aware that we have to take account of margins of error, etc but I personally rate this as being a much bigger story than the rather silly and hugely unlikely prospect of Boris standing in the Clacton by-election.
Mr. Brooke, just because we're in a deep financial hole does not mean Miliband and Balls would not attempt to dig us out of it. A bad situation can almost always be made worst, and we could be in a far more terrible state.
The big story today is surely the remarkable turnaround in the Tories fortunes in the latest Populus VI poll - not that you'd notice from the insignificant attention it receives on this site - no sign of the flashy multi-coloured bar charts it would seem when the Blues score a big hit, these are clearly reserved for Labour and even occasionally UKIP triumphs. In the course of just 4 days the Tories have turned a 6% Labour lead into a 1% lead in their favour and yes I'm aware that we have to take account of margins of error, etc but I personally rate this as being a much bigger story than the rather silly and hugely unlikely prospect of Boris standing in the Clacton by-election.
The big story today is surely the remarkable turnaround in the Tories fortunes in the latest Populus VI poll - not that you'd notice from the insignificant attention it receives on this site - no sign of the flashy multi-coloured bar charts it would seem when the Blues score a big hit, these are clearly reserved for Labour and even occasionally UKIP triumphs. In the course of just 4 days the Tories have turned a 6% Labour lead into a 1% lead in their favour and yes I'm aware that we have to take account of margins of error, etc but I personally rate this as being a much bigger story than the rather silly and hugely unlikely prospect of Boris standing in the Clacton by-election.
Two sides of the same 3% Labour lead.
It's also the second time this month Populus have shown a Conservative lead. Not that noteworthy.
Mr. Brooke, just because we're in a deep financial hole does not mean Miliband and Balls would not attempt to dig us out of it. A bad situation can almost always be made worst, and we could be in a far more terrible state.
Well then the righties need to need to get their story straight.
It's either the markets will hammer the Eds if they do anything stupid ( so they won't ) or it's the markets will sit back as they rack up another mountain of debt ( so quit telling us about the power of the markets ).
Richard if you're benchmarking yourself against the last lot, maybe that's where you're going wrong and losing so many of us.
I'm not. I'm benchmarking this government against all the governments I've known in the last half-century.
But even if I wasn't, being better than the last lot is a pretty strong argument, given that the alternative is to get a more feeble version of the last lot back again.
Seriously Richard your miles off and drifting further away.
The last lot coming back just doesn't scare since as one of them put it "there is no more money" and watching them having to clear up their own mess might just be fun.
I won't vote for Cameron at the next GE since basically he's done nothing for me or my family. Or at least nothing that makes a difference
The current lot aren't a total write off:
Hunt has turned out to be a surprisingly good Health Secretary so far Gove took on the vested interest until Cameron knifed him Hammond is a safe pair of hands as is May in what's probably the hardest job of the bunch Cameron I'd give credit for having the brains to stay out of the Indy ref.
But
Osborne is a the wrong man for the job - a politcal CoE not a reformer. David Willetts should have his own circle of Hell reserved for him It doesn't matter who runs Overseas Aid the whole premise is just plain wrong And Cameron can't manage a broad church - which is pretty central to being PM.
Oh Alan, can I say what a joy it is to see your inner Lib Dem shining through at last.
Richard if you're benchmarking yourself against the last lot, maybe that's where you're going wrong and losing so many of us.
I'm not. I'm benchmarking this government against all the governments I've known in the last half-century.
But even if I wasn't, being better than the last lot is a pretty strong argument, given that the alternative is to get a more feeble version of the last lot back again.
Seriously Richard your miles off and drifting further away.
The last lot coming back just doesn't scare since as one of them put it "there is no more money" and watching them having to clear up their own mess might just be fun.
I won't vote for Cameron at the next GE since basically he's done nothing for me or my family. Or at least nothing that makes a difference
The current lot aren't a total write off:
Hunt has turned out to be a surprisingly good Health Secretary so far Gove took on the vested interest until Cameron knifed him Hammond is a safe pair of hands as is May in what's probably the hardest job of the bunch Cameron I'd give credit for having the brains to stay out of the Indy ref.
But
Osborne is a the wrong man for the job - a politcal CoE not a reformer. David Willetts should have his own circle of Hell reserved for him It doesn't matter who runs Overseas Aid the whole premise is just plain wrong And Cameron can't manage a broad church - which is pretty central to being PM.
Oh Alan, can I say what a joy it is to see your inner Lib Dem shining through at last.
It's a struggle John I can tell you.
After a hard night's setting crosses alight on the neighbour's lawns and what with it being marching Season to boot, there's nothing better than a good tofu salad for a pick-me -up.
Mr. Brooke, it can be that Miliband and Balls will screw things up terribly and then have to jump into much deeper austerity to try and steady the ship.
I can see why some would be tempted to vote UKIP (contingent on seat) of voting UKIP, but if you're effectively opting out of picking the government you may end up with the chap you least want in charge.
Thought for today. Will the papers drop Carswell in favour of "Muslims will murder you in your bed" ? (45 minute warning optional) O.K. I know I am a cynical sod, but you have to admit it is fortunate timing
Mr. Pulpstar, vielleicht. If he loses then UKIP's present jubilation will be reminiscent of the Athenian optimism prior to the Sicilian expedition in the Peloponnesian War.
Amazed at the level of interest being shown to an increased threat level – by the same who had nothing to say on the small matter of 1,400 sexually abused children in Rotherham.
Richard if you're benchmarking yourself against the last lot, maybe that's where you're going wrong and losing so many of us.
I'm not. I'm benchmarking this government against all the governments I've known in the last half-century.
But even if I wasn't, being better than the last lot is a pretty strong argument, given that the alternative is to get a more feeble version of the last lot back again.
Seriously Richard your miles off and drifting further away.
The last lot coming back just doesn't scare since as one of them put it "there is no more money" and watching them having to clear up their own mess might just be fun.
I won't vote for Cameron at the next GE since basically he's done nothing for me or my family. Or at least nothing that makes a difference
The current lot aren't a total write off:
Hunt has turned out to be a surprisingly good Health Secretary so far Gove took on the vested interest until Cameron knifed him Hammond is a safe pair of hands as is May in what's probably the hardest job of the bunch Cameron I'd give credit for having the brains to stay out of the Indy ref.
But
Osborne is a the wrong man for the job - a politcal CoE not a reformer. David Willetts should have his own circle of Hell reserved for him It doesn't matter who runs Overseas Aid the whole premise is just plain wrong And Cameron can't manage a broad church - which is pretty central to being PM.
Oh Alan, can I say what a joy it is to see your inner Lib Dem shining through at last.
It's a struggle John I can tell you.
After a hard night's setting crosses alight on the neighbour's lawns and what with it being marching Season to boot, there's nothing better than a good tofu salad for a pick-me -up.
Mr. Brooke, it can be that Miliband and Balls will screw things up terribly and then have to jump into much deeper austerity to try and steady the ship.
I can see why some would be tempted to vote UKIP (contingent on seat) of voting UKIP, but if you're effectively opting out of picking the government you may end up with the chap you least want in charge.
Still, that's democracy.
What if I can't see that much difference between them ?
I mean if Balls were head honcho I might think twice ( but since I;m not in a marginal it makes bugger all difference ).
But EdM ? A man who can't out-think a bacon butty ? Nah.
"IS extremists represent 'greater and deeper threat to our security than we have known before' - Cameron" Puts Hitler into a proper historical context at least?
Nothing like a bit of exaggeration ! Only left to tell us is the attack will take place in 45 minutes.
I did chuckle when I read the threat has been raised to severe....yet there is no credible intelligence.
The reason ? The incompetent spooks have not returned from the pub yet !
Richard if you're benchmarking yourself against the last lot, maybe that's where you're going wrong and losing so many of us.
I'm not. I'm benchmarking this government against all the governments I've known in the last half-century.
But even if I wasn't, being better than the last lot is a pretty strong argument, given that the alternative is to get a more feeble version of the last lot back again.
Seriously Richard your miles off and drifting further away.
The last lot coming back just doesn't scare since as one of them put it "there is no more money" and watching them having to clear up their own mess might just be fun.
I won't vote for Cameron at the next GE since basically he's done nothing for me or my family. Or at least nothing that makes a difference
The current lot aren't a total write off:
Hunt has turned out to be a surprisingly good Health Secretary so far Gove took on the vested interest until Cameron knifed him Hammond is a safe pair of hands as is May in what's probably the hardest job of the bunch Cameron I'd give credit for having the brains to stay out of the Indy ref.
But
Osborne is a the wrong man for the job - a politcal CoE not a reformer. David Willetts should have his own circle of Hell reserved for him It doesn't matter who runs Overseas Aid the whole premise is just plain wrong And Cameron can't manage a broad church - which is pretty central to being PM.
Oh Alan, can I say what a joy it is to see your inner Lib Dem shining through at last.
It's a struggle John I can tell you.
After a hard night's setting crosses alight on the neighbour's lawns and what with it being marching Season to boot, there's nothing better than a good tofu salad for a pick-me -up.
"Being marching Season to boot..."
As befits a LibDem Orange bonker, er, booker.
It's the gawdy colours that screw up Ireland, I'm attracted to thhe Orange bookers and Neil's attracted to the Greens.
Mr. Brooke, you appear to be using Miliband's intellectual self-confidence, ahem, as reassurance he won't be like Hollande's slightly less competent English cousin.
Of course, if you consider the parties identical there's no reason not to vote UKIP (if you're that way inclined). And if Miliband/Balls win and then **** things up horrendously I would be entitled to point out you'd been a silly sausage
As good as this poll is for the Conservatives, I forsee the Clacton by-election completely overshadowing the Conservative party conference now.
Also those immigration targets yesterday, the fruit does not get any riper for UKIP than that.
Carswell is turning UKIP into a serious party.
UKIP is not a political party, its Mr F and his followers, he decides everything, its his party and no one else is allowed a say. This will eventually lead to its end.
Amazed at the level of interest being shown to an increased threat level – by the same who had nothing to say on the small matter of 1,400 sexually abused children in Rotherham.
Who poses the greater risk - ISIS, or Labour voting child abusers in the north of England?
@SimonStClare "Amazed at the level of interest being shown to an increased threat level"
It's part of the same thought process, forget the hysteria and look at things calmly, and base your decisions on that instead. It's called "rational thought" I believe, but there are times that running around like headless chickens seems to find more favour.
I'd say this is UKIP's first MUST WIN situation. Even a strong second in the Euros wouldn't have been fatal. If this by-election is lost, however their position will make the Lib Dem's current predicament look decent.
Mr. Brooke, you appear to be using Miliband's intellectual self-confidence, ahem, as reassurance he won't be like Hollande's slightly less competent English cousin.
Of course, if you consider the parties identical there's no reason not to vote UKIP (if you're that way inclined). And if Miliband/Balls win and then **** things up horrendously I would be entitled to point out you'd been a silly sausage
I won't vote kipper either, they are eerily fixated with Cameron and Farage is just a George Formby impersonator with a southern accent.
East Coast, incumbency, favourable demographics. Everything in their favour this time. I'd rather be on UKIP's side of the gamble than any other though.
Rotherham would explain why Labour dropped so markedly in this poll, but if Rotherham was a factor you would surely expect UKIP to benefit.
Yet not. They are also down two points.
Hmm, there does appear to be an inconsistency with the PB rhetoric – perhaps the scandal has yet to filter through to effect the polls - or merely noise.
Our very own Mr. T has asked Miliband about the Rotherham situation (via Twitter). No reply, as yet: https://twitter.com/thomasknox
I wonder if we'll end up with prosecutions, of both actual perpetrators and those who covered it up or refused to do anything about it. I hope so, but we'll see.
Amazed at the level of interest being shown to an increased threat level – by the same who had nothing to say on the small matter of 1,400 sexually abused children in Rotherham.
Who poses the greater risk - ISIS, or Labour voting child abusers in the north of England?
Could be the very same young Pakistani men in all honesty.
Rotherham would explain why Labour dropped so markedly in this poll, but if Rotherham was a factor you would surely expect UKIP to benefit.
Yet not. They are also down two points.
Hmm, there does appear to be an inconsistency with the PB rhetoric – perhaps the scandal has yet to filter through to effect the polls - or merely noise.
Or maybe those outraged and Kipper curious have already jumped the shark, and the movement now will be intra-centrists.
Amazed at the level of interest being shown to an increased threat level – by the same who had nothing to say on the small matter of 1,400 sexually abused children in Rotherham.
Who poses the greater risk - ISIS, or Labour voting child abusers in the north of England?
Could be the very same young Pakistani men in all honesty.
Could be, although I think it tends to be people from bigger cities who end up going to Syria and Iraq.
@dyedwoolie The extreme left and the extreme right blur into the same thing eventually.
Indeed they do. Donitz knew this, that's why he spent his seven days in the sun trying to get everyone to surrender to the West, knowing exactly what the East was all about. It would have been like surrendering to themselves.
Rotherham would explain why Labour dropped so markedly in this poll, but if Rotherham was a factor you would surely expect UKIP to benefit.
Yet not. They are also down two points.
Hmm, there does appear to be an inconsistency with the PB rhetoric – perhaps the scandal has yet to filter through to effect the polls - or merely noise.
Or maybe those outraged and Kipper curious have already jumped the shark, and the movement now will be intra-centrists.
"Kipper curious" makes it sound like a sexual preference. Arf.
Rotherham would explain why Labour dropped so markedly in this poll, but if Rotherham was a factor you would surely expect UKIP to benefit.
Yet not. They are also down two points.
Hmm, there does appear to be an inconsistency with the PB rhetoric – perhaps the scandal has yet to filter through to effect the polls - or merely noise.
Or maybe those outraged and Kipper curious have already jumped the shark, and the movement now will be intra-centrists.
"Kipper curious" makes it sound like a sexual preference. Arf.
True, but having dealt with some of that stuff in a previous life putting a percentage on it is impossible. So if one has credible information that an attack is more likely than it was but without any actual specifics what should a government do? Just shut up about it? 99 times out of a hundred that will work just fine but then that 1 in a 100 comes along and who will be leading the charge when it turns out HMG had information to suggest an attack was more likely? Then you have the situation where you have told people that nothing is likely to happen so they ignore things that had they been aware that an attack really was quite likely they may have reported. People die in those circumstances.
Its a bugger and I am not all that keen on the present system (partly because I think it leads to exaggerated threat levels) but I can't think of a better idea.
If all the information they can give us is useless in terms of our being able to respond to it (or, as someone intimated, isn't designed for us to respond to it) because they can give us no information about the nature or the likelihood of the threat then, yes, they might as well not mention it (and equally they shouldn't tell us nothing is going to happen which I can't recall ever happening). I don't see that the present system serves any purpose beyond helping to maintain public support for government's anti-terrorism approach.
Amazed at the level of interest being shown to an increased threat level – by the same who had nothing to say on the small matter of 1,400 sexually abused children in Rotherham.
Who poses the greater risk - ISIS, or Labour voting child abusers in the north of England?
Could be the very same young Pakistani men in all honesty.
I wonder if there are any who have actually done both? A few years of child rape, then off to behead some infidels, then back to England to claim more benefits.
Rotherham would explain why Labour dropped so markedly in this poll, but if Rotherham was a factor you would surely expect UKIP to benefit.
Yet not. They are also down two points.
Hmm, there does appear to be an inconsistency with the PB rhetoric – perhaps the scandal has yet to filter through to effect the polls - or merely noise.
Or maybe those outraged and Kipper curious have already jumped the shark, and the movement now will be intra-centrists.
ok hands up - I have absolute no clue what that means..
Amazed at the level of interest being shown to an increased threat level – by the same who had nothing to say on the small matter of 1,400 sexually abused children in Rotherham.
Who poses the greater risk - ISIS, or Labour voting child abusers in the north of England?
Could be the very same young Pakistani men in all honesty.
I wonder if there are any who have actually done both? A few years of child rape, then off to behead some infidels, then back to England to claim more benefits.
Amazed at the level of interest being shown to an increased threat level – by the same who had nothing to say on the small matter of 1,400 sexually abused children in Rotherham.
Who poses the greater risk - ISIS, or Labour voting child abusers in the north of England?
Could be the very same young Pakistani men in all honesty.
I wonder if there are any who have actually done both? A few years of child rape, then off to behead some infidels, then back to England to claim more benefits.
Rotherham would explain why Labour dropped so markedly in this poll, but if Rotherham was a factor you would surely expect UKIP to benefit.
Yet not. They are also down two points.
Hmm, there does appear to be an inconsistency with the PB rhetoric – perhaps the scandal has yet to filter through to effect the polls - or merely noise.
Or maybe those outraged and Kipper curious have already jumped the shark, and the movement now will be intra-centrists.
ok hands up - I have absolute no clue what that means..
Ok, let's say Rotherham has an effect. The thought is UKIP benefit. I'm suggesting perhaps UKIP have already soaked up their maximum support (for the time being), and any Rotherham effect will be Lab down, Con up (intra-centrist)
@SeanT A percentage of those returning from Syria will be doing so for two reasons.... 1. They have changed their minds about the "Holiness of the cause" and/or 2. They don't want to die.
Strikes me that helping them get out, might be more profitable than letting them remain.
I have concluded that some of the lines from the Wiki page on The Darien Scheme may be rehashed in a few years time, but in the context of Scottish Independence.
Try these...
“...the Darien Scheme or Darien Disaster was an unsuccessful attempt by the Kingdom of Scotland to become a world trading nation...”
“From the outset, the undertaking was beset by poor planning and provision, weak leadership, lack of demand for trade goods”
“The country's economy was relatively small, its range of exports very limited and it was in a weak position in relation to England”
“...Scotland was incapable of protecting itself from the effects of English competition and legislation.The kingdom had no reciprocal export trade and its once thriving industries such as shipbuilding were in deep decline. Goods which were in demand had to be bought from England for sterling...”
“However, the stronger feeling among Scots was that the country should become a great mercantile and colonial power like England.”
And my personal SNPesque favourite...
“Letters sent home by the expedition created a misleading impression that everything was going according to plan. This seems to have been by agreement, as certain optimistic phrases kept recurring. However, it meant the Scottish public would be completely unprepared for the coming disaster.”
Mr. T, unless some emerges in the next few weeks I suspect we'll end up with a second national disgrace of nobody being held to account for an appalling and unforgivable tragedy.
As an aside: I loathe the term 'learn the lessons'. You don't need hindsight to realise kids being gang-raped is wrong (and illegal).
Miliband's silence is baffling. All he has to do is condemn it, which must surely be what he actually thinks.
Read a tweet that he actually called for an inquiry into breast implants. Hasn't, yet, for this.
"Mr Salmond also said no responsible politician should seek to take advantage of such protests, as he insisted the overwhelming majority of Scots were "enjoying the most invigorating, scintillating, exciting debate in our political history"."
If this is the best debate ever in Scottish History, God help them.
If Scotland counts as a separate country, I've lived in three countries and I'm approaching 40. I've certainly not encountered such a widely publicly debated issue and for the most part the discussion I have heard on public transport, in pubs and so on has been good natured. Naturally for the most part it isn't particularly well informed, but that is to be expected. Elements of the campaign have been pretty nasty, but I could say the same about any campaign where the stakes have been reasonably high (even the vote on our electoral system).
Mr. T, unless some emerges in the next few weeks I suspect we'll end up with a second national disgrace of nobody being held to account for an appalling and unforgivable tragedy.
As an aside: I loathe the term 'learn the lessons'. You don't need hindsight to realise kids being gang-raped is wrong (and illegal).
Miliband's silence is baffling. All he has to do is condemn it, which must surely be what he actually thinks.
Read a tweet that he actually called for an inquiry into breast implants. Hasn't, yet, for this.
Unless his media team is completely incompetent, they must have heard the criticism by this point. I'm guessing he'll now release a more thorough statement, so that they can then say it took time to prepare.
Mr. Pulpstar, not sure I'd go that far, but would agree only a win will do for UKIP.
A Conservative (or Labour) victory by even a single vote would be very significant for them.
Anyone who thinks Labour will win this is away with the fairies.
I'm not saying it's likely but if you start at:
Con 53 Lab 25 LibDem 13
Give half the LibDems to Lab (see OGH passim) Con 53 Lab 31.5 LibDem 6.5
Then move half the Cons to UKIP Con 26.5 UKIP 26.5 Lab 31.5
...that would be a Lab win.
It's not really that easy because there will be some bleeding from Lab to UKIP too (despite their ex-Con MP) and Con will probably lose more than half to UKIP so the bar will be higher, but it doesn't seem outside the bounds of possibility...
At the very least, if you think Con have a decent shot (I don't) then there's also a non-trivial chance that Lab will sneak in through the middle.
Dr. Spyn, control orders as in the measures ruled illegal by the courts?
There was a ridiculous piece on the news (ITV at ten, I think) where a few seconds in a piece of minutes was spent mentioning that the measures were illegal. That's a bit like having a five minute conversation about what curtains to buy for the bedroom, and spending 17 seconds mentioning the house has burnt down.
I do think stronger measures are needed but you can't break the law.
I have to say one has to be careful with high-profile defections because of the Trojan Horse. What if Carswell stabs Farage in the back at some point?
It was quite clear during the European elections that UKIP had been infiltrated by lots of these who timed their exits with maximum media timing damage. There was a very memorable youth member (Asian girl) who did just that.
Big Media have ignored UKIP since that victory (they either smear or ignore). But now Big Media write it up as Carswell’s story. He won’t have lost all his links to the establishment. Watch out with that. Drink with the devil, then take a long spoon. Rather than being Carswell’s story, this is the story of the people of Essex and elsewhere. Carswell’s ‘man of principle’ charade doesn’t fool me. No politician is ever a man of principle and if they say so, run a mile.
Carswell knows what side his bread is buttered on. And where the voters are headed. He did not want to lose his seat to UKIP. And he would have.
I have a relative in Essex who runs a breakdown recovery firm. He reports that everybody who gets in the cab when the vehicle is being towed plans to vote UKIP at the next election. I know chatter in a breakdown truck cab is only a straw poll, but look at the European election results there.
UKIP were on course to win. Carswell or not. The fear is that if, at any point, Carswell exits, the media will write it up as: ‘Ah, look, you’ve lost your star turn. End of UKIP.’
The people were already on the march in Essex and Carswell didn’t want to get left behind. Forget all the tat you read about him being ‘intellectual’ and a ‘man of principle’. No. This was a case of running with the herd for fear of being left behind.
I’m not keen on ex-this and ex-that going into UKIP but just look at the level of smears thrown at the party by the Daily Mail and Telegraph in those European elections. They do need someone to take that flak. Other than that, isn’t it nice to know the end of LibLabCon cartel is on its way. That’s the good part. But I don’t want the people to stop now and defer to people like Carswell.
I want them to keep on marching. I want LibLabCon wiped out. Forever.
I had Helens permission to publish the above on PB
Amazed at the level of interest being shown to an increased threat level – by the same who had nothing to say on the small matter of 1,400 sexually abused children in Rotherham.
Who poses the greater risk - ISIS, or Labour voting child abusers in the north of England?
Could be the very same young Pakistani men in all honesty.
I wonder if there are any who have actually done both? A few years of child rape, then off to behead some infidels, then back to England to claim more benefits.
True, but having dealt with some of that stuff in a previous life putting a percentage on it is impossible. So if one has credible information that an attack is more likely than it was but without any actual specifics what should a government do? Just shut up about it? 99 times out of a hundred that will work just fine but then that 1 in a 100 comes along and who will be leading the charge when it turns out HMG had information to suggest an attack was more likely? Then you have the situation where you have told people that nothing is likely to happen so they ignore things that had they been aware that an attack really was quite likely they may have reported. People die in those circumstances.
Its a bugger and I am not all that keen on the present system (partly because I think it leads to exaggerated threat levels) but I can't think of a better idea.
If all the information they can give us is useless in terms of our being able to respond to it (or, as someone intimated, isn't designed for us to respond to it) because they can give us no information about the nature or the likelihood of the threat then, yes, they might as well not mention it (and equally they shouldn't tell us nothing is going to happen which I can't recall ever happening). I don't see that the present system serves any purpose beyond helping to maintain public support for government's anti-terrorism approach.
Fair enough.
Suppose a bomb went off killing and maiming X number of people because nobody thought to phone the plod about a suspicious van. Then during the inquest its comes to light that the intelligence agencies had credible information that an attack was highly likely but didn't tell the public because they could give them no information about the nature of the attack or the likelihood beyond that it was highly likely. The person who noted the suspicious van then says to the press well if I had been told an attack was highly likely I would have phoned 999.
You don't think that, perhaps rightly, the press and the public would be screaming for heads to roll. "People died because MI% didn't warn us". More importantly by raising the public consciousness about the likelihood of an attack it might be that such a phone call about a van, bag, car, whatever, might be made when otherwise it might not be. Lives might just be saved.
As I said it is a bugger of a system, but I really cannot think of a better one.
Breaking my sabbatical briefly because I owe Mark Senior some money. When he's next around, could someone get him to let me know how he would like payment?
In passing, I note that real Alba men like albumen.
"Mr Salmond also said no responsible politician should seek to take advantage of such protests, as he insisted the overwhelming majority of Scots were "enjoying the most invigorating, scintillating, exciting debate in our political history"."
If this is the best debate ever in Scottish History, God help them.
If Scotland counts as a separate country, I've lived in three countries and I'm approaching 40. I've certainly not encountered such a widely publicly debated issue and for the most part the discussion I have heard on public transport, in pubs and so on has been good natured. Naturally for the most part it isn't particularly well informed, but that is to be expected. Elements of the campaign have been pretty nasty, but I could say the same about any campaign where the stakes have been reasonably high (even the vote on our electoral system).
Rotherham would explain why Labour dropped so markedly in this poll, but if Rotherham was a factor you would surely expect UKIP to benefit.
Yet not. They are also down two points.
Hmm, there does appear to be an inconsistency with the PB rhetoric – perhaps the scandal has yet to filter through to effect the polls - or merely noise.
Or maybe those outraged and Kipper curious have already jumped the shark, and the movement now will be intra-centrists.
ok hands up - I have absolute no clue what that means..
Ok, let's say Rotherham has an effect. The thought is UKIP benefit. I'm suggesting perhaps UKIP have already soaked up their maximum support (for the time being), and any Rotherham effect will be Lab down, Con up (intra-centrist)
If the political class are unable to suppress the full scale of this then the Lab vote would likely split in all directions Ukip, Con, Lib and in the areas most concerned to Respect.
So they either go big or stay totally silent while polishing up their dolphin square dirt on the Tories.
The government trying to scare us all to death once again with these silly terror alerts. The main effect of them will probably be a more vigorous manhandling from airport security staff.
"As for prosecutions and inquiries, the Blob will fiercely resist this, and they might succeed. It depends whether more crimes, of a similar kind, come to light - in which case public outrage will overwhelm all obstacles."
Don't be so silly. No politician local or national, nor any senior plod will ever be charged with any offence in relation the the Rotherham scandal or any like it anywhere else. The allegations already in the public domain are enough for such people to be suspended even arrested, but it hasn't happened. The reason why so many people want a full, independent, judge-led enquiry is to make so nobody in senior positions of authority, let alone a politician, is ever held to account.
Breaking my sabbatical briefly because I owe Mark Senior some money. When he's next around, could someone get him to let me know how he would like payment?
"What is happening is that the yes campaign is now organising to create a mob atmosphere at our street meetings. It's co-ordinated, it's determined and it's increasingly aggressive," Murphy said.
"What started as individual passionate nationalists having their say has changed into angry mobs of nationalists coming along and making sure that no one else has their say."
1 Buy detergent 2 Rape kids 3 Go to Syria (behead infidel?) 4 Force marriage 5 Order pizza 6 Honour kill sister? 7 Put wife in burqa (check for FGM!) 8 Bins
Breaking my sabbatical briefly because I owe Mark Senior some money. When he's next around, could someone get him to let me know how he would like payment?
Welcome (briefly?) back!
How should he get in touch with you?
[Oh, and what was the bet?]
It was about the nature of the first defection in this parliament. Douglas Carswell hasn't just let the Conservatives down, far more shockingly he's let me down (I'd been counting on a Lib Dem to Labour defection first).
Vanilla is probably the best way for Mark Senior to contact me - I've changed email address since the bet was set up. I'll be watching out for the next few days.
It was about the nature of the first defection in this parliament. Douglas Carswell hasn't just let the Conservatives down, far more shockingly he's let me down (I'd been counting on a Lib Dem to Labour defection first).
Vanilla is probably the best way for Mark Senior to contact me - I've changed email address since the bet was set up. I'll be watching out for the next few days.
Comments
And the bombers at least gave you a warning they were coming?
The V2 rockets didn't, but that was probably just an oversight.
On a more serious note, was interested to read the odd poster yesterday saying that Roger Lord should back down as UKIP candidate out of loyalty to the party... I'm assuming they were just being ironic...
Regarding another sub-thread earlier, should Carswell (or similar) replace Farage as leader and cease the unpleasant national stereotyping and genuinely concentrate on the economic impacts of immigration then a vote for UKIP becomes a possibility...
If the Tories had any sense, they'll put Johnson forward for the by-election whilst postponing the selection in Uxbridge in case he loses. As that would be a no-risk option for Johnson, he might well be persuaded to stand, so 20/1 still seems good value.
I do wonder how I'd vote in a marginal where UKIP stood a chance. In a Balls marginal with Conservatives clearly second it's a rather simpler decision to make.
But governing is hard, especially in the economic conditions which have prevailed since 2008. There are contradictory aims, external events come and bite you, the levers you have are not very well connected-up to what you want to achieve, your own party is a coalition of people who don't agree on everything, and of course that's even more of a problem when you're in coalition with another party.
There is no panacea or quick solutions. I hate to break it to you, but this is as good as it gets, based on experience of the last 50 years, with the one exception of Maggie. And she had in some ways a more straightforward challenge, since the UK at that time faced one massive problem which absolutely had to be tackled to the exclusion of all other considerations.
So by all means let's try to do better. But let's not ignore what is already being done well, or fall into the nihilistic trap of assuming they are 'all the same'. They're not.
The threat levels are typically raised when chatter escalates or as credible plots cross the radar. Obviously, the Home Sec isn't going to say what the threat is, as that'd let the buggers know they'd been spotted. My knowledge of this area is now pretty rusty as I've been out of loop for about 7yrs - can't imagine it's changed that much since though.
I did chuckle when I read the threat has been raised to severe....yet there is no credible intelligence.
The reason ? The incompetent spooks have not returned from the pub yet !
Captured British servicemen were sometimes treated reasonably by the Nazis
Any and all British service people captured by ISIS can expect a summary beheading in front of a camera, without exception.
The number of extremist groups has increased by one, Therefore there is a greater chance of an attack.
While we are all in a panic about the returning jihadists, there is more chance of the next atrocity being carried out by someone who has no obvious connection with IS, or indeed by some home grown nutter with a shotgun and a family grievance.
The last lot coming back just doesn't scare since as one of them put it "there is no more money" and watching them having to clear up their own mess might just be fun.
I won't vote for Cameron at the next GE since basically he's done nothing for me or my family.
Or at least nothing that makes a difference
The current lot aren't a total write off:
Hunt has turned out to be a surprisingly good Health Secretary so far
Gove took on the vested interest until Cameron knifed him
Hammond is a safe pair of hands as is May in what's probably the hardest job of the bunch
Cameron I'd give credit for having the brains to stay out of the Indy ref.
But
Osborne is a the wrong man for the job - a politcal CoE not a reformer.
David Willetts should have his own circle of Hell reserved for him
It doesn't matter who runs Overseas Aid the whole premise is just plain wrong
And Cameron can't manage a broad church - which is pretty central to being PM.
In the course of just 4 days the Tories have turned a 6% Labour lead into a 1% lead in their favour and yes I'm aware that we have to take account of margins of error, etc but I personally rate this as being a much bigger story than the rather silly and hugely unlikely prospect of Boris standing in the Clacton by-election.
They were treated abominably and the Russians repaid the favour later.
Edited extra bit: ahem, but clumsily phrased.
I meant, was it just a one-off good result, or the start of a sustained improvement?
It's either the markets will hammer the Eds if they do anything stupid ( so they won't ) or it's the markets will sit back as they rack up another mountain of debt ( so quit telling us about the power of the markets ).
It can't be both
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BwNiKFXCQAIqDe-.jpg
Also those immigration targets yesterday, the fruit does not get any riper for UKIP than that.
Carswell is turning UKIP into a serious party.
After a hard night's setting crosses alight on the neighbour's lawns and what with it being marching Season to boot, there's nothing better than a good tofu salad for a pick-me -up.
I can see why some would be tempted to vote UKIP (contingent on seat) of voting UKIP, but if you're effectively opting out of picking the government you may end up with the chap you least want in charge.
Still, that's democracy.
Which is not a slur or intended as such. He's not a household name outside the bubble. Unlike, say, Hunt or someone like that defecting.
Imagine 2005 if it had been Gordon Brown defecting instead of Brian Sedgemoor.....
O.K. I know I am a cynical sod, but you have to admit it is fortunate timing
As befits a LibDem Orange bonker, er, booker.
I mean if Balls were head honcho I might think twice ( but since I;m not in a marginal it makes bugger all difference ).
But EdM ? A man who can't out-think a bacon butty ? Nah.
It's a bit early to say that - he may be a failed ex-MP in about six weeks time.
'Nothing like a bit of exaggeration ! Only left to tell us is the attack will take place in 45 minutes'
Understandable you think it's exaggerated after the New Labour 45 minute warning / phantom weapons of mass destruction fabrications.
Of course, if you consider the parties identical there's no reason not to vote UKIP (if you're that way inclined). And if Miliband/Balls win and then **** things up horrendously I would be entitled to point out you'd been a silly sausage
"Amazed at the level of interest being shown to an increased threat level"
It's part of the same thought process, forget the hysteria and look at things calmly, and base your decisions on that instead.
It's called "rational thought" I believe, but there are times that running around like headless chickens seems to find more favour.
The latest ARSE for the 2015 general election will be posted on Pb on Tuesday at 9am.
A Conservative (or Labour) victory by even a single vote would be very significant for them.
Heaven help THAT broad church....!
https://twitter.com/thomasknox
I wonder if we'll end up with prosecutions, of both actual perpetrators and those who covered it up or refused to do anything about it. I hope so, but we'll see.
The extreme left and the extreme right blur into the same thing eventually.
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2014-08-29/police-chief-rotherham-report-was-painful-reading/
Perhaps Mrs May might do something about the rotten state of policiing in S Yorkshire.
Look, look we have a terror threat upgrade.
A percentage of those returning from Syria will be doing so for two reasons....
1. They have changed their minds about the "Holiness of the cause"
and/or
2. They don't want to die.
Strikes me that helping them get out, might be more profitable than letting them remain.
Try these...
“...the Darien Scheme or Darien Disaster was an unsuccessful attempt by the Kingdom of Scotland to become a world trading nation...”
“From the outset, the undertaking was beset by poor planning and provision, weak leadership, lack of demand for trade goods”
“The country's economy was relatively small, its range of exports very limited and it was in a weak position in relation to England”
“...Scotland was incapable of protecting itself from the effects of English competition and legislation.The kingdom had no reciprocal export trade and its once thriving industries such as shipbuilding were in deep decline. Goods which were in demand had to be bought from England for sterling...”
“However, the stronger feeling among Scots was that the country should become a great mercantile and colonial power like England.”
And my personal SNPesque favourite...
“Letters sent home by the expedition created a misleading impression that everything was going according to plan. This seems to have been by agreement, as certain optimistic phrases kept recurring. However, it meant the Scottish public would be completely unprepared for the coming disaster.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darien_scheme
As an aside: I loathe the term 'learn the lessons'. You don't need hindsight to realise kids being gang-raped is wrong (and illegal).
Miliband's silence is baffling. All he has to do is condemn it, which must surely be what he actually thinks.
Read a tweet that he actually called for an inquiry into breast implants. Hasn't, yet, for this.
All Cameron has to do is announce an inquiry, but then, people might ask him what the hell has he done about the last one.
But, yes, it is shocking it's taken this long.
Con 53
Lab 25
LibDem 13
Give half the LibDems to Lab (see OGH passim)
Con 53
Lab 31.5
LibDem 6.5
Then move half the Cons to UKIP
Con 26.5
UKIP 26.5
Lab 31.5
...that would be a Lab win.
It's not really that easy because there will be some bleeding from Lab to UKIP too (despite their ex-Con MP) and Con will probably lose more than half to UKIP so the bar will be higher, but it doesn't seem outside the bounds of possibility...
At the very least, if you think Con have a decent shot (I don't) then there's also a non-trivial chance that Lab will sneak in through the middle.
TERROR THREAT LEVEL:Labour urges government to look again at control orders for suspected terrorists live.
BBC ticker.
Never look a gift squirrel in the mouth, no matter it's species.
There was a ridiculous piece on the news (ITV at ten, I think) where a few seconds in a piece of minutes was spent mentioning that the measures were illegal. That's a bit like having a five minute conversation about what curtains to buy for the bedroom, and spending 17 seconds mentioning the house has burnt down.
I do think stronger measures are needed but you can't break the law.
Below is a post by Helen J
Blogging on
http://www.coffeehousewall.co.uk/the-coffee-house-wall-25th31st-august/#comment-144433
I have to say one has to be careful with high-profile defections because of the Trojan Horse.
What if Carswell stabs Farage in the back at some point?
It was quite clear during the European elections that UKIP had been infiltrated by lots of these who timed their exits with maximum media timing damage. There was a very memorable youth member (Asian girl) who did just that.
Big Media have ignored UKIP since that victory (they either smear or ignore).
But now Big Media write it up as Carswell’s story. He won’t have lost all his links to the establishment. Watch out with that. Drink with the devil, then take a long spoon.
Rather than being Carswell’s story, this is the story of the people of Essex and elsewhere.
Carswell’s ‘man of principle’ charade doesn’t fool me. No politician is ever a man of principle and if they say so, run a mile.
Carswell knows what side his bread is buttered on. And where the voters are headed. He did not want to lose his seat to UKIP.
And he would have.
I have a relative in Essex who runs a breakdown recovery firm. He reports that everybody who gets in the cab when the vehicle is being towed plans to vote UKIP at the next election.
I know chatter in a breakdown truck cab is only a straw poll, but look at the European election results there.
UKIP were on course to win. Carswell or not.
The fear is that if, at any point, Carswell exits, the media will write it up as: ‘Ah, look, you’ve lost your star turn. End of UKIP.’
The people were already on the march in Essex and Carswell didn’t want to get left behind.
Forget all the tat you read about him being ‘intellectual’ and a ‘man of principle’.
No. This was a case of running with the herd for fear of being left behind.
I’m not keen on ex-this and ex-that going into UKIP but just look at the level of smears thrown at the party by the Daily Mail and Telegraph in those European elections.
They do need someone to take that flak.
Other than that, isn’t it nice to know the end of LibLabCon cartel is on its way.
That’s the good part. But I don’t want the people to stop now and defer to people like Carswell.
I want them to keep on marching.
I want LibLabCon wiped out.
Forever.
I had Helens permission to publish the above on PB
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/rotherham-sex-abuse-monster-flies-4126300
http://blogs.channel4.com/paul-mason-blog/independent-heart-overrule-sceptical-economic-mind/2143
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28987175
Gruinard Bay has some vacant accommodation.
Suppose a bomb went off killing and maiming X number of people because nobody thought to phone the plod about a suspicious van. Then during the inquest its comes to light that the intelligence agencies had credible information that an attack was highly likely but didn't tell the public because they could give them no information about the nature of the attack or the likelihood beyond that it was highly likely. The person who noted the suspicious van then says to the press well if I had been told an attack was highly likely I would have phoned 999.
You don't think that, perhaps rightly, the press and the public would be screaming for heads to roll. "People died because MI% didn't warn us". More importantly by raising the public consciousness about the likelihood of an attack it might be that such a phone call about a van, bag, car, whatever, might be made when otherwise it might not be. Lives might just be saved.
As I said it is a bugger of a system, but I really cannot think of a better one.
Harriet Harman @HarrietHarman · Aug 27
Rotherham: support victims, prosecute criminals, hold to account those in authority who failed, learn lessons.
Is she serious? Wonder if she backs silent Ed.
In passing, I note that real Alba men like albumen.
THAT IS A SHOCKINGLY..
..sensible and rational post.
If the political class are unable to suppress the full scale of this then the Lab vote would likely split in all directions Ukip, Con, Lib and in the areas most concerned to Respect.
So they either go big or stay totally silent while polishing up their dolphin square dirt on the Tories.
"As for prosecutions and inquiries, the Blob will fiercely resist this, and they might succeed. It depends whether more crimes, of a similar kind, come to light - in which case public outrage will overwhelm all obstacles."
Don't be so silly. No politician local or national, nor any senior plod will ever be charged with any offence in relation the the Rotherham scandal or any like it anywhere else. The allegations already in the public domain are enough for such people to be suspended even arrested, but it hasn't happened. The reason why so many people want a full, independent, judge-led enquiry is to make so nobody in senior positions of authority, let alone a politician, is ever held to account.
How should he get in touch with you?
[Oh, and what was the bet?]
"What started as individual passionate nationalists having their say has changed into angry mobs of nationalists coming along and making sure that no one else has their say."
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/29/jim-murphy-scotland-better-together-speaking-tour-suspended-intimidation
From what I can see the Conservatives "Crossed Over" 2 times in August (both times with Populus) This compared with other months this:
April - 0 times
May - 3 times.
June - 1 times
July - 1 times
August - 2 times (so far)
As far as Labour and Conservative being tied the the figures tack up this:
April - 1 times
May - 2 times
June - 0 times
July - 1 times
August - 2 times (so far)
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2
Sign on
Vanilla is probably the best way for Mark Senior to contact me - I've changed email address since the bet was set up. I'll be watching out for the next few days.
Bad luck on the bet!