Boris has been cut to 20/1 by Shadsy. I'd have bet at 33s but not 20s.
Decrepit
Your political observations are a pleasure to read but you need to brush up a bit on your betting.
20/1 represents a 4.76% chance; 33/1 equates to 3.03%. For all practical purposes, that's hardly any difference at all.
Personally I'd want at least 100/1, and even then I would have no more than a few sea-shells on it.
Yeah but no but 33/1 is chuck away a tenner whereas 20/1 is I'd need to take time to compare voting patterns in Clacton and Uxbridge and google Boris's pronouncements -- in short, I'd need to read the formbook.
It interesting that you as a party member are experiencing what it looks like to me from the outside, UKIP is controlled totally by Mr F. I dont see that as healthy.
I don't think it is necessarily as bad as many people claim but I do believe it is certainly far beyond what would be considered acceptable by other parties. I think you only have to look at the number of decent dedicated men and women who have fallen out with Farage and had to leave the party to understand how much of an influence he is on every aspect of the organisation.
Whilst that doesn't currently affect me directly I certainly don't think it is healthy. The only saving grace for me is that I believe Farage's underlying principles and aims are worthy.
But we all know about the road to hell being paved with good intentions.
Health warning on this post. In the end I hate all parties even those I support. The whole party system to me is undemocratic both inside and outside Parliament so I am hardly likely to try and claim that UKIP are any different. This clearly colours my view of Farage.
"The Jay report said senior councillors were told of the town abuse problem’s ‘in the most explicit terms’ in a seminar in 2004/05 - but did not act. A Labour Party spokesperson said: “The party is reviewing what further action is necessary against any councillor who may have been involved in the appalling failure to protect children.”
Not the only ones with some serious questions to answer as well....Barnardos, the local "community" leaders, etc etc etc...All have been accused of knowing a lot about of what was going on, but whose actions were at best inadequate.
A lot of this misses the point. What we need to establish as a matter of urgency is not what went wrong in Rotherham -- the Jay report tells us -- but whether it is going on right now in any other borough. Perhaps a checklist could be faxed from Whitehall to every town hall in the land.
There might also be greater urgency attached to the known problem of CSE amongst youth gangs in parts of London.
Ladbrokes have shortened their odds against the Tories holding Clacton to 7/2, meanwhile Hills offer them at 11/4. Clearly there has been a reassessment of their chances.
"The Jay report said senior councillors were told of the town abuse problem’s ‘in the most explicit terms’ in a seminar in 2004/05 - but did not act. A Labour Party spokesperson said: “The party is reviewing what further action is necessary against any councillor who may have been involved in the appalling failure to protect children.”
Not the only ones with some serious questions to answer as well....Barnardos, the local "community" leaders, etc etc etc...All have been accused of knowing a lot about of what was going on, but whose actions were at best inadequate.
Perhaps a checklist could be faxed from Whitehall to every town hall in the land.
Pointless. If it's been known about, and hushed up, they're hardly likely to confess all now.
@TheScreamingEagles I am glad "Theresa" is on the ball with this. Does she inform us of the extra steps we should take from those we are supposed to take for a "Highly likely" scenario, as opposed to a "Substantial" one?
You aren't supposed to do anything other than be more aware of your surroundings and understand why security postures and activities may be visibly enhanced. It's not rocket science, perhaps the government felt they are dealing with adults, not sheep who have to be led.
I wonder if we are starting to see the beginning of a journey where top notch candidates start to push out the sectionable in UKIP. They seem to have gained a Carswell and lost a Lord. Farage needs a lot more heavy hitting fellow travellers to turn the party into an electoral force that can not only win a solid share of the vote but win seats too. I expect, for example, that the Speaker will be pretty much obliged to grant Carswell a question at every future PMQ (as the sole voice of one voter in 5 or 6). That could be a laugh.
No he won't. Carswell is the representative of 67,000 electors in Clacton, not the representative of all UKIP supporters. He is entitled to be called to speak in the House (including PMQs) only as often as any other MP.
Not exactly. The Speaker tries to ensure that there's the broadest possible range of opinion heard. It would be unthinkable to have a debate on the environment in which Caroline Lucas wasn't called if she wanted to be, and similarly in any debate on Europe or maybe immigration you could be sure that Carswell would be called. The way it works technically is that you give the Speaker a note before a debate on deep-sea diving explaining that your constituency is full of divers and you have a radical proposal to help them - you will certainly get priority over A.N.Other backbencher who just wants to get his speaking rate up. (There are other factors too - if you spoke for too long last timeor have spken 6 times in the last few weeks your chances go down.) So the sole UKIP MP would get a good share of chances, but not at every PMQ etc.
On the timing, multiple leaks from the Tories say October, though probably 9 or 16. They want to try to lance the boil.
So which is the outlier ?Tuesday's Populus or Todays ?
Don't you realize that Friday's Populus is the new Gold Standard, at least until ICM gets its act together and resumes its hitherto laudable cross-over results.
Militants in Egypt claim to have beheaded four men they had accused of being Israeli Mossad spies in a video which appears to have been inspired by the tactics of the Islamic State.
Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis, who have been described as Egypt's most dangerous militant group, released the video, in which they accuse the four Egyptians of spying for Israel's Mossad spy agency.
On the timing, multiple leaks from the Tories say October, though probably 9 or 16. They want to try to lance the boil.
I think the earliest practical date is the 16th, isn't it? It would be foolish to hold it immediately after the Conservative conference (28 Sep - 1 Oct), and discourteous to hold it immediately after the LibDem conference (4-8 October).
So which is the outlier ?Tuesday's Populus or Todays ?
Don't you realize that Friday's Populus is the new Gold Standard, at least until ICM gets its act together and resumes its hitherto laudable cross-over results.
I'm amazed you've got time for PB chit chat when you should be organising your defection.
Scottish punters overwhelmingly backing a YES vote, say bookies.
It's squeaky bum time for those NO punters. Ahem, not to mention those who linked this with a <80% Indy Referendum turnout.</p>
2010 General Election turnout across Glasgow was c55%. So for every 11 that voted in 2010, you are going to have to find another 5 to go to the polls to get to 80% turnout. Dundee was 60%, so for every 3 that voted in 2010, find another voter this time. Edinburgh and Aberdeen were mid 60's so better - but these four centres are surely going to be a big drag on overall turnout. Hard to see 100% in Auchtermuchty making up the shortfall to 80% overall....
On the timing, multiple leaks from the Tories say October, though probably 9 or 16. They want to try to lance the boil.
I think the earliest practical date is the 16th, isn't it? It would be foolish to hold it immediately after the Conservative conference (28 Sep - 1 Oct), and discourteous to hold it immediately after the LibDem conference (4-8 October).
Looking at yesterday, I don't think courtesy is top of the UKIP agenda.
@saddened Right, I shall be more alert because of this heightened state, while at the same time, carrying on as usual. In the full knowledge, that if an atrocity happens, it is entirely my own fault as I had been warned, and the powers that be can in no way be blamed. Baaaaaaa ;-)
"We plan to change Britain with a sweeping redistribution of power: from the state to citizens; from the government to Parliament; from Whitehall to communities; from Brussels to Britain; from bureaucracy to democracy. Taking power away from the political elite and handing it to the man and woman in the street."
Big stuff, who could object to that as a commitment.
So which is the outlier ?Tuesday's Populus or Todays ?
Don't you realize that Friday's Populus is the new Gold Standard, at least until ICM gets its act together and resumes its hitherto laudable cross-over results.
I'm amazed you've got time for PB chit chat when you should be organising your defection.
Um, somehow that got lost in translation. Try received pronunciation than grating Ulster brogue.
@saddened Right, I shall be more alert because of this heightened state, while at the same time, carrying on as usual. In the full knowledge, that if an atrocity happens, it is entirely my own fault as I had been warned, and the powers that be can in no way be blamed. Baaaaaaa ;-)
Exactly how dim are you trying to appear? It's a very simple concept yet you seem unable to grasp it.
"The Jay report said senior councillors were told of the town abuse problem’s ‘in the most explicit terms’ in a seminar in 2004/05 - but did not act. A Labour Party spokesperson said: “The party is reviewing what further action is necessary against any councillor who may have been involved in the appalling failure to protect children.”
Not the only ones with some serious questions to answer as well....Barnardos, the local "community" leaders, etc etc etc...All have been accused of knowing a lot about of what was going on, but whose actions were at best inadequate.
A lot of this misses the point. What we need to establish as a matter of urgency is not what went wrong in Rotherham -- the Jay report tells us -- but whether it is going on right now in any other borough. Perhaps a checklist could be faxed from Whitehall to every town hall in the land.
There might also be greater urgency attached to the known problem of CSE amongst youth gangs in parts of London.
It doesn't miss the point at all...We need to get to the bottom of this, the details just keep coming and coming and it spreads wider and wider. Jay's report wasn't even suppose to be really looking at this kind of scale of abuse and failure, it was suppose to be a "mopping up" exercise. Many more questions and further investigation is required, both in Rotherham and wider.
So which is the outlier ?Tuesday's Populus or Todays ?
Don't you realize that Friday's Populus is the new Gold Standard, at least until ICM gets its act together and resumes its hitherto laudable cross-over results.
I'm amazed you've got time for PB chit chat when you should be organising your defection.
Um, somehow that got lost in translation. Try received pronunciation than grating Ulster brogue.
Carswell says the country is still run as it was under tony blair. Tiny cliques on sofas chasing headlines. Pledges completely disregarded and voters completely ignored.
@TheScreamingEagles I am glad "Theresa" is on the ball with this. Does she inform us of the extra steps we should take from those we are supposed to take for a "Highly likely" scenario, as opposed to a "Substantial" one?
You aren't supposed to do anything other than be more aware of your surroundings and understand why security postures and activities may be visibly enhanced. It's not rocket science, perhaps the government felt they are dealing with adults, not sheep who have to be led.
Clearly the government has changed its mind on the sheep question as the Prime Minister is due to make an announcement.
So which is the outlier ?Tuesday's Populus or Todays ?
Don't you realize that Friday's Populus is the new Gold Standard, at least until ICM gets its act together and resumes its hitherto laudable cross-over results.
I'm amazed you've got time for PB chit chat when you should be organising your defection.
Um, somehow that got lost in translation. Try received pronunciation than grating Ulster brogue.
@TheScreamingEagles I am glad "Theresa" is on the ball with this. Does she inform us of the extra steps we should take from those we are supposed to take for a "Highly likely" scenario, as opposed to a "Substantial" one?
You aren't supposed to do anything other than be more aware of your surroundings and understand why security postures and activities may be visibly enhanced. It's not rocket science, perhaps the government felt they are dealing with adults, not sheep who have to be led.
Clearly the government has changed its mind on the sheep question as the Prime Minister is due to make an announcement.
Judging by the comprehension of Smarmeron, perhaps they've had to have a rethink.
Carswell says the country is still run as it was under tony blair. Tiny cliques on sofas chasing headlines. Pledges completely disregarded and voters completely ignored.
Its hard not to agree.
It's complete garbage. One of the very big differences between the Blair/Brown years and the current government is precisely that decisions are delegated to ministers, as they should be and always used to be before New Labour corrupted our body politic.
Talk to any Whitehall civil servant, and you'll be told the same. If you can get them to be a tad indiscreet you'll also be told horror stories about how under Labour decisions all had to go to No 10, which wasn't too bad when Blair was PM because at least he took decisions, but proved unworkable under Brown because nothing ever came back: he just dithered.
@saddened Perhaps it might be easier for me if they were to simplify the system Relaxed > slightly nervous > wary > frightened > sh1t scared > completely paranoid. We are never not under some kind of threat, moving an abstract and meaningless statement to a higher status changes absolutely nothing, except give the impression those in power are "doing something" This might reassure you, but the rest of us tend the "no sh1t Sherlock?" view of these earth shattering pronouncements.
@saddened Perhaps it might be easier for me if they were to simplify the system Relaxed > slightly nervous > wary > frightened > sh1t scared > completely paranoid. We are never not under some kind of threat, moving an abstract and meaningless statement to a higher status changes absolutely nothing, except give the impression those in power are "doing something" This might reassure you, but the rest of us tend the "no sh1t Sherlock?" view of these earth shattering pronouncements.
Speak for yourself. At this level and higher I work more often from home. Memories of desperately trying to contact my financée on 7/7 are still potent. I know I'm just reducing a tiny risk to a miniscule one, but to say it changes absolutely nothing is utter tripe.
On topic-Johnson has arduous mayoral duties London.How would he be supposed to run London and Clacton at the same time as either the Clactonians or the Londoners will be able to say you only care about London/Clacton and neither will be happy.I can see it being torment for him.I can't see him coping with the cold easterly winds screeching in from the North Sea either.
A point about Carswell: apologies if has been made before.
Another independently-minded, arch-eurosceptic, Essex Conservative with a very strong personal vote and representing a constituency in which UKIP topped the 2013 local election vote* ... great shame for Dr Bob Spink that he mistimed his defection. Had he run as UKIP in Castle Point in 2015 rather than Independent Save Our Green Belt in 2010, I reckon he'd have had an excellent chance of retaining his seat.
I'm not sure how strong Carswell's personal vote will be, the electorate of Clacton must have been well aware for years now that they weren't voting for a run-of-the-mill, rank-and-file Conservative. People who voted for Bob Spink when he was a Tory must have known the same and when he broke away he took with him 12,174 votes. That was a great showing in the context of the time, but to my mind seems a bit "what could have been" now.
* Thanks to @AndyJS at UKPR, though he does also point out UKIP were behind the Tories in the 2014 locals (though if their vote were combined with the Canvey Independents who they didn't run against, would have comfortably topped them).
Thanks for that link. I've never heard of the Wheeltappers & Shunters Social Club before (Wikipedia says it was 1974 to 1977, so just before my time). It was enjoyable to watch it, and less cringingly stereotypically non-PC than I had expected. Bernard Manning was still in his "normal" phase then. It's also interesting to Google some of the people in it, such as the Brother Lees, and Matt Monro (1930-1985). I realised that I had heard of the name Matt Monro but that I didn't know anything about who he was.
I blame those selfish bastards in UKIP, forcing the Govt. to take its eye off the ball at a time of crisis.....
A bit like that 'selfish' Winston Churchill, who used Britain's hour of need to grab the top job when we should have been concentrating on fighting the Germans.
Or that 'Selfish' David Lloyd George, who did the same to Asquith in 1916.
@saddened Perhaps it might be easier for me if they were to simplify the system Relaxed > slightly nervous > wary > frightened > sh1t scared > completely paranoid. We are never not under some kind of threat, moving an abstract and meaningless statement to a higher status changes absolutely nothing, except give the impression those in power are "doing something" This might reassure you, but the rest of us tend the "no sh1t Sherlock?" view of these earth shattering pronouncements.
Oddly I think that yesterdays event show UKIP in their true light. They are Nigel Farages play thing. He runs the organisation like a dictatorship, not a democratic political party. What he says goes and thats it. How can you select a parliamentary candidate and then replace him without any consultation or the good grace to tell the man himself. I wonder how long UKIP members will put up with this dictatorship especially if they attract more capable people.
It seems obvious to me that if a sitting MP defects to UKIP, he should get the chance to defend the seat on behalf of his new party.
On topic-Johnson has arduous mayoral duties London.How would he be supposed to run London and Clacton at the same time as either the Clactonians or the Londoners will be able to say you only care about London/Clacton and neither will be happy.I can see it being torment for him.I can't see him coping with the cold easterly winds screeching in from the North Sea either.
The 17.02 out of London Liverpool Street, if memory serves.
I genuinely don't believe he's the best candidate - an open primary could give the Tories some narrative, even a rushed one. And potentially show up UKIP's internal disagreement about candidacy.
@saddened Right, I shall be more alert because of this heightened state, while at the same time, carrying on as usual. In the full knowledge, that if an atrocity happens, it is entirely my own fault as I had been warned, and the powers that be can in no way be blamed. Baaaaaaa ;-)
Perhaps they could come up with new terms that you can understand e.g. Blair level - 'Total peace, all is well, no hostility anywhere' or 'Campbell level - attack imminent in the next 45 mins', etc
@saddened Your chances of dying in a terrorist related indecent are vanishingly small compared to the normal daily risks you run without a second thought. It is people like you who give terrorists power. By all means be aware, but you should have been before the announcement.
Oddly I think that yesterdays event show UKIP in their true light. They are Nigel Farages play thing. He runs the organisation like a dictatorship, not a democratic political party. What he says goes and thats it. How can you select a parliamentary candidate and then replace him without any consultation or the good grace to tell the man himself. I wonder how long UKIP members will put up with this dictatorship especially if they attract more capable people.
It seems obvious to me that if a sitting MP defects to UKIP, he should get the chance to defend the seat on behalf of his new party.
Yup, if the local UKIP members don't like Carswell they can always deselect him in advance of 2015.
@Anorak Don't cross any roads without a responsible adult holding you hand especially during the more dangerous hours.
Most people could work out the following for themselves, but just for you here it is from the MI5 website (emphasis added):
"Threat levels in themselves do not require specific responses from the public. They are a tool for security practitioners working across different sectors of what we call the Critical National Infrastructure opens in a new window (CNI) and the police to use in determining what protective security response may be required. By its very nature, intelligence cannot be revealed completely and there will always be limitations to what we can say about security and the responses we have planned."
But keep digging, you'll be much safer down there.
Is it me or has our government's response to the threat of ISIS seem to have completely run into the sand, as the butchery extends and expands??
Not sure what we can do. Military options are off the table, there's no way Cameron would risk being defeated,again, in the commons. Politically there's little that can be done.
Agreed. I wouldn't dance to either Carswell's or UKIP's timetable in this by-election. Having left his constituents in a lurch just months before the next GE so he can cynically and self indulgently grand stand, the Tories should play him at his own game. Delay the by-election, hold an open primary to select the Conservative candidate and allow them and their team to embed their campaign locally. It worked for Labour in Glenrothes by-election back in 2008 when they were under pressure from the SNP having lost Glasgow East by-election.
If the only way to plausibly defend a by-election is by getting the Mayor of London to stand, you probably shouldn't get the Mayor of London to stand.
A local doctor or teacher might be a better idea.
Serious and non partisan question. Whose decision is it? Does it come down to how Carswell made his announcement?
Scenario 1
I am Joining UKIP I am Resigning my seat
Seat is UKIP's for a few seconds so they get to pick the date
Scenario 2
I am Resigning my seat I am Joining UKIP
Seat was Tory at the time of resignation and so they get to pick the date.
I don't know what the rules are on this so some enlightement would be very welcome.
I'm not a lawyer, but the mechanism for Carswell to resign his seat is absolutely in George Osborne's hands - Carswell can't resign, per se, but instead is appointed Steward of either the Chiltern Hundreds or Northstead Manor*. These appointments are entirely at the discretion of the Second Lord of the Treasury. As the holder of a paid office under the Crown he would be ineligible to be an MP and hence would be forced to vacate his seat.
In terms of who gets to pick the date, I believe that the writ of election needs to be moved by a current MP. And, of course, UKIP wouldn't have an MP once Carswell has resigned...
* Amusingly, given that Patrick Mercer is currently the Steward of the Chiltern Hundreds, it appears likely that Carswell will replace David Miliband as Steward of Northstead
Amusingly, given that Patrick Mercer is currently the Steward of the Chiltern Hundreds, it appears likely that Carswell will replace David Miliband as Steward of Northstead
Seems like a shame, David Miliband's been doing an excellent job.
Is it me or has our government's response to the threat of ISIS seem to have completely run into the sand, as the butchery extends and expands??
What response are we supposed to have? It's for the people of the region to sort out, we can only look to prevent domestic blowback from our prior activities in the region.
This means an attack is deemed to be "highly likely", but there is no intelligence to suggest one is is imminent.
if they don't give a probability, that is pretty much meaningless.
True, but having dealt with some of that stuff in a previous life putting a percentage on it is impossible. So if one has credible information that an attack is more likely than it was but without any actual specifics what should a government do? Just shut up about it? 99 times out of a hundred that will work just fine but then that 1 in a 100 comes along and who will be leading the charge when it turns out HMG had information to suggest an attack was more likely? Then you have the situation where you have told people that nothing is likely to happen so they ignore things that had they been aware that an attack really was quite likely they may have reported. People die in those circumstances.
Its a bugger and I am not all that keen on the present system (partly because I think it leads to exaggerated threat levels) but I can't think of a better idea.
Carswell says the country is still run as it was under tony blair. Tiny cliques on sofas chasing headlines. Pledges completely disregarded and voters completely ignored.
Its hard not to agree.
It's complete garbage. One of the very big differences between the Blair/Brown years and the current government is precisely that decisions are delegated to ministers, as they should be and always used to be before New Labour corrupted our body politic.
Talk to any Whitehall civil servant, and you'll be told the same. If you can get them to be a tad indiscreet you'll also be told horror stories about how under Labour decisions all had to go to No 10, which wasn't too bad when Blair was PM because at least he took decisions, but proved unworkable under Brown because nothing ever came back: he just dithered.
I have my complaints with the government but Carswell is clearly barking when he says things like this and claims that there has been no austerity.
We can hardly expect Cameron to have a strategy on ISIS when Obama has announced he doesn't have one.
So the butchery and mayhem will spread until we finally wake up to the fact that there is a war on, that we're a target and that we'd bloody well better do something to defend ourselves.
I have zero faith in the bunch of spineless cretins who make up our current political class to do anything sensible. All we get from Cameron is a special furrowed brow look when he's being extra serious and, if we're lucky, a speech.
"Mr Salmond also said no responsible politician should seek to take advantage of such protests, as he insisted the overwhelming majority of Scots were "enjoying the most invigorating, scintillating, exciting debate in our political history"."
If this is the best debate ever in Scottish History, God help them.
ll we get from Cameron is a special furrowed brow look when he's being extra serious and, if we're lucky, a speech.
Laura Kuenssberg just commented that Cameron is sounding extremely tough, but when you read the small print it just boils down to one meek, watery extra measure.
Carswell says the country is still run as it was under tony blair. Tiny cliques on sofas chasing headlines. Pledges completely disregarded and voters completely ignored.
Its hard not to agree.
It's complete garbage. One of the very big differences between the Blair/Brown years and the current government is precisely that decisions are delegated to ministers, as they should be and always used to be before New Labour corrupted our body politic.
Talk to any Whitehall civil servant, and you'll be told the same. If you can get them to be a tad indiscreet you'll also be told horror stories about how under Labour decisions all had to go to No 10, which wasn't too bad when Blair was PM because at least he took decisions, but proved unworkable under Brown because nothing ever came back: he just dithered.
I have my complaints with the government but Carswell is clearly barking when he says things like this and claims that there has been no austerity.
Any sign of this yet:
"We plan to change Britain with a sweeping redistribution of power: from the state to citizens; from the government to Parliament; from Whitehall to communities; from Brussels to Britain; from bureaucracy to democracy. Taking power away from the political elite and handing it to the man and woman in the street."
It was in the Conservative manifesto and they have been in power for more than four years, surely they might have at least made a start by now even if that nasty Mr. Clegg didn't want to.
Carswell says the country is still run as it was under tony blair. Tiny cliques on sofas chasing headlines. Pledges completely disregarded and voters completely ignored.
Its hard not to agree.
It's complete garbage. One of the very big differences between the Blair/Brown years and the current government is precisely that decisions are delegated to ministers, as they should be and always used to be before New Labour corrupted our body politic.
Talk to any Whitehall civil servant, and you'll be told the same. If you can get them to be a tad indiscreet you'll also be told horror stories about how under Labour decisions all had to go to No 10, which wasn't too bad when Blair was PM because at least he took decisions, but proved unworkable under Brown because nothing ever came back: he just dithered.
I have my complaints with the government but Carswell is clearly barking when he says things like this and claims that there has been no austerity.
Any sign of this yet:
"We plan to change Britain with a sweeping redistribution of power: from the state to citizens; from the government to Parliament; from Whitehall to communities; from Brussels to Britain; from bureaucracy to democracy. Taking power away from the political elite and handing it to the man and woman in the street."
It was in the Conservative manifesto and they have been in power for more than four years, surely they might have at least made a start by now even if that nasty Mr. Clegg didn't want to.
Ah but there's another election coming up soon Mr L maybe they'll ask for a second chance.
Just because someone answered back at the poor dear??
There was some discussion on #indyref by Yes supporters, including how shocking the waste of an egg was. There was support for waving boxes of eggs at Mr M and then taking them to the food bank ...
"Mr Salmond also said no responsible politician should seek to take advantage of such protests, as he insisted the overwhelming majority of Scots were "enjoying the most invigorating, scintillating, exciting debate in our political history"."
If this is the best debate ever in Scottish History, God help them.
Amusingly, given that Patrick Mercer is currently the Steward of the Chiltern Hundreds, it appears likely that Carswell will replace David Miliband as Steward of Northstead
Seems like a shame, David Miliband's been doing an excellent job.
Just because someone answered back at the poor dear??
There was some discussion on #indyref by Yes supporters, including how shocking the waste of an egg was. There was support for waving boxes of eggs at Mr M and then taking them to the food bank ...
Just because someone answered back at the poor dear??
You mean Murphy was egging the crowd on ? Trying to get the Nats to come out of their shells.
This is hardly the most eggsiting campaign ever and most of us can't wait until it's ova.
Carswell says the country is still run as it was under tony blair. Tiny cliques on sofas chasing headlines. Pledges completely disregarded and voters completely ignored.
Its hard not to agree.
It's complete garbage. One of the very big differences between the Blair/Brown years and the current government is precisely that decisions are delegated to ministers, as they should be and always used to be before New Labour corrupted our body politic.
Talk to any Whitehall civil servant, and you'll be told the same. If you can get them to be a tad indiscreet you'll also be told horror stories about how under Labour decisions all had to go to No 10, which wasn't too bad when Blair was PM because at least he took decisions, but proved unworkable under Brown because nothing ever came back: he just dithered.
I have my complaints with the government but Carswell is clearly barking when he says things like this and claims that there has been no austerity.
Any sign of this yet:
"We plan to change Britain with a sweeping redistribution of power: from the state to citizens; from the government to Parliament; from Whitehall to communities; from Brussels to Britain; from bureaucracy to democracy. Taking power away from the political elite and handing it to the man and woman in the street."
It was in the Conservative manifesto and they have been in power for more than four years, surely they might have at least made a start by now even if that nasty Mr. Clegg didn't want to.
Ah but there's another election coming up soon Mr L maybe they'll ask for a second chance.
Maybe, Mr. Brooke, maybe, but it does get my goat when people tell me that Cameron will definitely keep his word on subject X and therefore can be trusted.
"We plan to change Britain with a sweeping redistribution of power: from the state to citizens; from the government to Parliament; from Whitehall to communities; from Brussels to Britain; from bureaucracy to democracy. Taking power away from the political elite and handing it to the man and woman in the street."
It was in the Conservative manifesto and they have been in power for more than four years, surely they might have at least made a start by now even if that nasty Mr. Clegg didn't want to.
Actually yes, quite a lot of progress:
from the government to Parliament - Haven't you noticed how the reforms to Select Committees have made them much more effective and independent of government?
from Brussels to Britain ; Work in progress
from Whitehall to communities Free schools, NHS restructuring
from bureaucracy to democracy The civil service is now smaller than at any time since before the Second World War, 5,000 pages of guidance to schools removed.
Taking power away from the political elite and handing it to the man and woman in the street. The man and woman in the street now gets to choose who is responsible for policing
Etc etc etc.
Look at this list - it's from January 2013 but it is amazing how much people have forgotten already:
"Mr Salmond also said no responsible politician should seek to take advantage of such protests, as he insisted the overwhelming majority of Scots were "enjoying the most invigorating, scintillating, exciting debate in our political history"."
If this is the best debate ever in Scottish History, God help them.
The terror threat level has been raised from substantial to severe, Home Secretary Theresa May has said.
This means an attack is deemed to be "highly likely", but there is no intelligence to suggest one is is imminent.
Good strategy, this is how you fight libertarians. It doesn't matter that the voters won't quite believe them, they win if they're even a little bit not sure.
On topic-Johnson has arduous mayoral duties London.How would he be supposed to run London and Clacton at the same time as either the Clactonians or the Londoners will be able to say you only care about London/Clacton and neither will be happy.I can see it being torment for him.I can't see him coping with the cold easterly winds screeching in from the North Sea either.
The 17.02 out of London Liverpool Street, if memory serves.
I genuinely don't believe he's the best candidate - an open primary could give the Tories some narrative, even a rushed one. And potentially show up UKIP's internal disagreement about candidacy.
The more pertinent factor is perhaps the fact that he would not be able to avoid poor people.
"Mr Salmond also said no responsible politician should seek to take advantage of such protests, as he insisted the overwhelming majority of Scots were "enjoying the most invigorating, scintillating, exciting debate in our political history"."
If this is the best debate ever in Scottish History, God help them.
What work has been done so far? Given up British liberties for the European Arrest Warrant? An increase in the annual payment to Brussels? Anything else?
"Mr Salmond also said no responsible politician should seek to take advantage of such protests, as he insisted the overwhelming majority of Scots were "enjoying the most invigorating, scintillating, exciting debate in our political history"."
If this is the best debate ever in Scottish History, God help them.
Just because someone answered back at the poor dear??
There was some discussion on #indyref by Yes supporters, including how shocking the waste of an egg was. There was support for waving boxes of eggs at Mr M and then taking them to the food bank ...
Just because someone answered back at the poor dear??
You mean Murphy was egging the crowd on ? Trying to get the Nats to come out of their shells.
This is hardly the most eggsiting campaign ever and most of us can't wait until it's ova.
That idea (deliberately trying to provoke the crowd to get some nasty nat media sympathy) was certainly the view of some who have watched the roadshow. There was also the interesting sight of a Tory councillor cheering him on (see wingsoverscotland.com today).
However, there is an alternative (and not mutually exclusive) analysis going around, that Mr M is laying the groundwork for hatching a plot to take over the SLAB nest in the wake of Ms Lamont. I wonder what Mr Sarwar thinks of that?
"We plan to change Britain with a sweeping redistribution of power: from the state to citizens; from the government to Parliament; from Whitehall to communities; from Brussels to Britain; from bureaucracy to democracy. Taking power away from the political elite and handing it to the man and woman in the street."
It was in the Conservative manifesto and they have been in power for more than four years, surely they might have at least made a start by now even if that nasty Mr. Clegg didn't want to.
Actually yes, quite a lot of progress:
from the government to Parliament - Haven't you noticed how the reforms to Select Committees have made them much more effective and independent of government?
from Brussels to Britain ; Work in progress
from Whitehall to communities Free schools, NHS restructuring
from bureaucracy to democracy The civil service is now smaller than at any time since before the Second World War, 5,000 pages of guidance to schools removed.
Taking power away from the political elite and handing it to the man and woman in the street. The man and woman in the street now gets to choose who is responsible for policing
Etc etc etc.
Look at this list - it's from January 2013 but it is amazing how much people have forgotten already:
What work has been done so far? Given up British liberties for the European Arrest Warrant? An increase in the annual payment to Brussels? Anything else?
That one is still to be sorted, but requires a majority.
"Mr Salmond also said no responsible politician should seek to take advantage of such protests, as he insisted the overwhelming majority of Scots were "enjoying the most invigorating, scintillating, exciting debate in our political history"."
If this is the best debate ever in Scottish History, God help them.
Don't knock it - what you read in the media isn't necessarily what is happening. Plus I don't think the Midlothian Campaign was a debate as such - and it was a long time ago.
"Mr Salmond also said no responsible politician should seek to take advantage of such protests, as he insisted the overwhelming majority of Scots were "enjoying the most invigorating, scintillating, exciting debate in our political history"."
If this is the best debate ever in Scottish History, God help them.
"We plan to change Britain with a sweeping redistribution of power: from the state to citizens; from the government to Parliament; from Whitehall to communities; from Brussels to Britain; from bureaucracy to democracy. Taking power away from the political elite and handing it to the man and woman in the street."
It was in the Conservative manifesto and they have been in power for more than four years, surely they might have at least made a start by now even if that nasty Mr. Clegg didn't want to.
Actually yes, quite a lot of progress:
from the government to Parliament - Haven't you noticed how the reforms to Select Committees have made them much more effective and independent of government?
from Brussels to Britain ; Work in progress
from Whitehall to communities Free schools, NHS restructuring
from bureaucracy to democracy The civil service is now smaller than at any time since before the Second World War, 5,000 pages of guidance to schools removed.
Taking power away from the political elite and handing it to the man and woman in the street. The man and woman in the street now gets to choose who is responsible for policing
Etc etc etc.
Look at this list - it's from January 2013 but it is amazing how much people have forgotten already:
Just because someone answered back at the poor dear??
There was some discussion on #indyref by Yes supporters, including how shocking the waste of an egg was. There was support for waving boxes of eggs at Mr M and then taking them to the food bank ...
Just because someone answered back at the poor dear??
You mean Murphy was egging the crowd on ? Trying to get the Nats to come out of their shells.
This is hardly the most eggsiting campaign ever and most of us can't wait until it's ova.
That idea (deliberately trying to provoke the crowd to get some nasty nat media sympathy) was certainly the view of some who have watched the roadshow. There was also the interesting sight of a Tory councillor cheering him on (see wingsoverscotland.com today).
However, there is an alternative (and not mutually exclusive) analysis going around, that Mr M is laying the groundwork for hatching a plot to take over the SLAB nest in the wake of Ms Lamont. I wonder what Mr Sarwar thinks of that?
Sorry Mr. N, I read down as far this entry at number 6:
The Territorial Army is doubling in size from 15,000 to 30,000.
At that point I gave up. That is clearly a work of political propaganda and has no basis in the real world.
It is a work of political presentation, true.
That doesn't alter the fact that the objective list of achievements is quite remarkable. You should keep reading. You may if you wish cross out item 6. That still leaves 99 (well, in truth, I'd cross out a few more).
I have to say I get really fed up with nay-sayers, especially ex-Tory nay-sayers, who can't see good government when it's staring them in the face and when we have such a recent contrast with the previous Labour government. The absurd negativity about this government verges on the insane, frankly.
Here's a suggestion: rather than going through the list nit-picking, trying to find one which is not valid, how about going through the list to see which ones you can grudgingly give David Cameron credit for?
Just seen Theresa May's statement about this terror alert thing. She's so impressive on things like this. Always gives the sense she's on top of things. She's what the Tories should be about (boring competence), whereas with idiots Cameron and Osborne, you not only get the nasty policies and unlikeable personalities, you also get incompetence and a sense they're completely out of their depth.
I still say TM would be a better choice for next Tory leader than Boris.
Sorry Mr. N, I read down as far this entry at number 6:
The Territorial Army is doubling in size from 15,000 to 30,000.
At that point I gave up. That is clearly a work of political propaganda and has no basis in the real world.
It is a work of political presentation, true.
That doesn't alter the fact that the objective list of achievements is quite remarkable. You should keep reading. You may if you wish cross out item 6. That still leaves 99 (well, in truth, I'd cross out a few more).
I have to say I get really fed up with nay-sayers, especially ex-Tory nay-sayers, who can't see good government when it's staring them in the face and when we have such a recent contrast with the previous Labour government. The absurd negativity about this government verges on the insane, frankly.
Here's a suggestion: rather than going through the list nit-picking, trying to find one which is not valid, how about going through the list to see which ones you can grudgingly give David Cameron credit for?
Richard if you're benchmarking yourself against the last lot, maybe that's where you're going wrong and losing so many of us.
"IS extremists represent 'greater and deeper threat to our security than we have known before' - Cameron" Puts Hitler into a proper historical context at least?
Richard if you're benchmarking yourself against the last lot, maybe that's where you're going wrong and losing so many of us.
I'm not. I'm benchmarking this government against all the governments I've known in the last half-century.
But even if I wasn't, being better than the last lot is a pretty strong argument, given that the alternative is to get a more feeble version of the last lot back again.
Sorry Mr. N, I read down as far this entry at number 6:
The Territorial Army is doubling in size from 15,000 to 30,000.
At that point I gave up. That is clearly a work of political propaganda and has no basis in the real world.
It is a work of political presentation, true.
That doesn't alter the fact that the objective list of achievements is quite remarkable. You should keep reading. You may if you wish cross out item 6. That still leaves 99 (well, in truth, I'd cross out a few more).
I have to say I get really fed up with nay-sayers, especially ex-Tory nay-sayers, who can't see good government when it's staring them in the face and when we have such a recent contrast with the previous Labour government. The absurd negativity about this government verges on the insane, frankly.
Here's a suggestion: rather than going through the list nit-picking, trying to find one which is not valid, how about going through the list to see which ones you can grudgingly give David Cameron credit for?
I feel your pain but really the present government maybe a bit better in some areas than the last but it is nowhere near good enough. As Mr. Brooke said the other day the choice some want us to make is to vote for the lesser of two evils. However, some of us don't want to vote for evil at all.
Comments
Whilst that doesn't currently affect me directly I certainly don't think it is healthy. The only saving grace for me is that I believe Farage's underlying principles and aims are worthy.
But we all know about the road to hell being paved with good intentions.
Health warning on this post. In the end I hate all parties even those I support. The whole party system to me is undemocratic both inside and outside Parliament so I am hardly likely to try and claim that UKIP are any different. This clearly colours my view of Farage.
"I'd need to read the formbook."
The last resort of the desperate, John.
There might also be greater urgency attached to the known problem of CSE amongst youth gangs in parts of London.
I take it you are an electrician.
Clearly there has been a reassessment of their chances.
7/2 may well be decent value for Les Bleues. I foresee an extremely bruising campaign.
On the timing, multiple leaks from the Tories say October, though probably 9 or 16. They want to try to lance the boil.
Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis, who have been described as Egypt's most dangerous militant group, released the video, in which they accuse the four Egyptians of spying for Israel's Mossad spy agency.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2737603/Influence-ISIS-spreads-Egypt-militants-decapitate-four-Israeli-Mossad-spies-video-echoes-recent-Islamist-beheadings.html
Right, I shall be more alert because of this heightened state, while at the same time, carrying on as usual. In the full knowledge, that if an atrocity happens, it is entirely my own fault as I had been warned, and the powers that be can in no way be blamed.
Baaaaaaa ;-)
As a green of course. cough cough
Big stuff, who could object to that as a commitment.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11061694/Ripe-for-abuse-the-ghostly-figures-in-Britains-shadowlands.html
Its hard not to agree.
By George, he's got it!
Talk to any Whitehall civil servant, and you'll be told the same. If you can get them to be a tad indiscreet you'll also be told horror stories about how under Labour decisions all had to go to No 10, which wasn't too bad when Blair was PM because at least he took decisions, but proved unworkable under Brown because nothing ever came back: he just dithered.
Perhaps it might be easier for me if they were to simplify the system
Relaxed > slightly nervous > wary > frightened > sh1t scared > completely paranoid.
We are never not under some kind of threat, moving an abstract and meaningless statement to a higher status changes absolutely nothing, except give the impression those in power are "doing something"
This might reassure you, but the rest of us tend the "no sh1t Sherlock?" view of these earth shattering pronouncements.
Monaco: a sunny place for shady people
Another independently-minded, arch-eurosceptic, Essex Conservative with a very strong personal vote and representing a constituency in which UKIP topped the 2013 local election vote* ... great shame for Dr Bob Spink that he mistimed his defection. Had he run as UKIP in Castle Point in 2015 rather than Independent Save Our Green Belt in 2010, I reckon he'd have had an excellent chance of retaining his seat.
I'm not sure how strong Carswell's personal vote will be, the electorate of Clacton must have been well aware for years now that they weren't voting for a run-of-the-mill, rank-and-file Conservative. People who voted for Bob Spink when he was a Tory must have known the same and when he broke away he took with him 12,174 votes. That was a great showing in the context of the time, but to my mind seems a bit "what could have been" now.
* Thanks to @AndyJS at UKPR, though he does also point out UKIP were behind the Tories in the 2014 locals (though if their vote were combined with the Canvey Independents who they didn't run against, would have comfortably topped them).
Don't cross any roads without a responsible adult holding you hand especially during the more dangerous hours.
A bit like that 'selfish' Winston Churchill, who used Britain's hour of need to grab the top job when we should have been concentrating on fighting the Germans.
Or that 'Selfish' David Lloyd George, who did the same to Asquith in 1916.
I genuinely don't believe he's the best candidate - an open primary could give the Tories some narrative, even a rushed one. And potentially show up UKIP's internal disagreement about candidacy.
Your chances of dying in a terrorist related indecent are vanishingly small compared to the normal daily risks you run without a second thought.
It is people like you who give terrorists power. By all means be aware, but you should have been before the announcement.
"Threat levels in themselves do not require specific responses from the public. They are a tool for security practitioners working across different sectors of what we call the Critical National Infrastructure opens in a new window (CNI) and the police to use in determining what protective security response may be required. By its very nature, intelligence cannot be revealed completely and there will always be limitations to what we can say about security and the responses we have planned."
But keep digging, you'll be much safer down there.
In terms of who gets to pick the date, I believe that the writ of election needs to be moved by a current MP. And, of course, UKIP wouldn't have an MP once Carswell has resigned...
* Amusingly, given that Patrick Mercer is currently the Steward of the Chiltern Hundreds, it appears likely that Carswell will replace David Miliband as Steward of Northstead
"Labour MP Jim Murphy has suspended his Scotland-wide tour ahead of the independence referendum, citing "coordinated abuse" from "Yes" voters."
(this is serious stuff, no yolks pls)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-28986714
What's also interesting to bettors is Hannan's comment on Clacton's Tory association:
"Most of the local Conservative Association has followed him"
Its a bugger and I am not all that keen on the present system (partly because I think it leads to exaggerated threat levels) but I can't think of a better idea.
So the butchery and mayhem will spread until we finally wake up to the fact that there is a war on, that we're a target and that we'd bloody well better do something to defend ourselves.
I have zero faith in the bunch of spineless cretins who make up our current political class to do anything sensible. All we get from Cameron is a special furrowed brow look when he's being extra serious and, if we're lucky, a speech.
Following the Jim Murphy egg attack
"Mr Salmond also said no responsible politician should seek to take advantage of such protests, as he insisted the overwhelming majority of Scots were "enjoying the most invigorating, scintillating, exciting debate in our political history"."
If this is the best debate ever in Scottish History, God help them.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-28986714
Laura Kuenssberg just commented that Cameron is sounding extremely tough, but when you read the small print it just boils down to one meek, watery extra measure.
As usual.
"We plan to change Britain with a sweeping redistribution of power: from the state to citizens; from the government to Parliament; from Whitehall to communities; from Brussels to Britain; from bureaucracy to democracy. Taking power away from the political elite and handing it to the man and woman in the street."
It was in the Conservative manifesto and they have been in power for more than four years, surely they might have at least made a start by now even if that nasty Mr. Clegg didn't want to.
There was some discussion on #indyref by Yes supporters, including how shocking the waste of an egg was. There was support for waving boxes of eggs at Mr M and then taking them to the food bank ...
Just because someone answered back at the poor dear??
You mean Murphy was egging the crowd on ? Trying to get the Nats to come out of their shells.
This is hardly the most eggsiting campaign ever and most of us can't wait until it's ova.
from the government to Parliament - Haven't you noticed how the reforms to Select Committees have made them much more effective and independent of government?
from Brussels to Britain ; Work in progress
from Whitehall to communities Free schools, NHS restructuring
from bureaucracy to democracy The civil service is now smaller than at any time since before the Second World War, 5,000 pages of guidance to schools removed.
Taking power away from the political elite and handing it to the man and woman in the street. The man and woman in the street now gets to choose who is responsible for policing
Etc etc etc.
Look at this list - it's from January 2013 but it is amazing how much people have forgotten already:
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2013/01/100-achievements-of-the-coalitiion-government.html
They should stand some soldiers on top of this:
http://www.thebeachguide.co.uk/public/geophotos/883025.jpg
What work has been done so far? Given up British liberties for the European Arrest Warrant? An increase in the annual payment to Brussels? Anything else?
However, there is an alternative (and not mutually exclusive) analysis going around, that Mr M is laying the groundwork for hatching a plot to take over the SLAB nest in the wake of Ms Lamont. I wonder what Mr Sarwar thinks of that?
The Territorial Army is doubling in size from 15,000 to 30,000.
At that point I gave up. That is clearly a work of political propaganda and has no basis in the real world.
you can't let an insult go,
An Ei for an Ei is no way to run a country
That doesn't alter the fact that the objective list of achievements is quite remarkable. You should keep reading. You may if you wish cross out item 6. That still leaves 99 (well, in truth, I'd cross out a few more).
I have to say I get really fed up with nay-sayers, especially ex-Tory nay-sayers, who can't see good government when it's staring them in the face and when we have such a recent contrast with the previous Labour government. The absurd negativity about this government verges on the insane, frankly.
Here's a suggestion: rather than going through the list nit-picking, trying to find one which is not valid, how about going through the list to see which ones you can grudgingly give David Cameron credit for?
Diplomacy: hard to negotiate if replies aren't prompt. If anybody hasn't checked their inbox today, please do so.
I still say TM would be a better choice for next Tory leader than Boris.
If Carswell can't win Clacton, I doubt UKIP could win anywhere....??
"IS extremists represent 'greater and deeper threat to our security than we have known before' - Cameron"
Puts Hitler into a proper historical context at least?
But even if I wasn't, being better than the last lot is a pretty strong argument, given that the alternative is to get a more feeble version of the last lot back again.
You knew where you were with Adolf. Just follow the millions of heavily armed and highly motivated troops.