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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If Boris is serious about helping his party he’d seek to be the CON candidate in Clacton

One of the big political decisions that the Tories will have to make in the next few weeks is who should be the candidate to fight UKIP defector, Douglas Carswell, in Clacton. The consequences for Cameron’s party of a UKIP victory in the seat are enormous and they have to do everything they can to stop him.

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felix

I'd like him to give it a go but would not be surprised if he doesen't.

felix

Great Populus poll by the way.

Sean_F

I agree he'd be far the best candidate for the Conservatives

[Deleted User]

Won't happen. BoJo needs a safe seat. Clacton against Carswell is anything but. 100% certain he'll stick with Uxbridge. Dave can whistle.

rcs1000

I have no skin in this game, but wouldn't Boris represent all the beneficiaries of international capital and privilege, to a town which had benefited little from these factors.

TheScreamingEagles

No

JohnLoony

Hopping about the country chicken-running all over the place, at the whim of every latest topical flash-in-the-pan micro-event? That would make him look ridiculous. The ordinary bumpkins and wrinklies of Clacton don't want a gallumphing Londonite bumbling into their town just because someone on a blog says so. The Conservative Party needs to select a proper local candidate (BOOish) in order to hold the seat.

dr_spyn

One way for Cameron to remove Boris from the scene, set him up in a seat where he loses.

isam

The ultimate carpet bagging political stunt!

But he is probably the Tories best chance... Back the 33/1 and the ukip 1/4?

FrancisUrquhart

I thought he had already said "ooowww, erhhhhhe, jolly goood, NO".

shadsy

How indyref betting has broken down between Scotland and England since the debates.
http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/08/29/is-the-indyref-betting-market-being-skewed-by-english-money/

TheScreamingEagles

The main reason Boris won't stand in Clacton is that it isn't in London.

He can't be London Mayor and a non London MP concurrently.

peter_from_putney

Shadsy reports:

Scottish punters overwhelmingly backing a YES vote, say bookies.

It's squeaky bum time for those NO punters. Ahem, not to mention those who linked this with a <80% Indy Referendum turnout.

[Deleted User]

I wonder if we are starting to see the beginning of a journey where top notch candidates start to push out the sectionable in UKIP. They seem to have gained a Carswell and lost a Lord. Farage needs alot more heavy hitting fellow travellers to turn the party into an electoral force that can not only win a solid share of the vote but win seats too. I expect, for example, that the Speaker will be pretty much obliged to grant Carswell a question at every future PMQ (as the sole voice of one voter in 5 or 6). That could be a laugh.

Tissue_Price

If the only way to plausibly defend a by-election is by getting the Mayor of London to stand, you probably shouldn't get the Mayor of London to stand.

A local doctor or teacher might be a better idea.

SimonStClare

If Boris is serious about helping his party he’d seek to be the CON candidate in Clacton.

nonsense - are there any new polls btw?

TheScreamingEagles

Daniel Hannan blames Douglas Carswell for Ed becoming PM and no referendum. Kinda

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100284469/douglas-carswell-will-win-big-with-implications-for-both-conservatives-and-ukip/

Morris_Dancer

Can't see Boris giving up a near certain seat for a risky one. However, if he fought it and won, it would greatly enhance his reputation (and it'd be risking his personal glory for the good of the party).

Life_ina_market_town

FPT

Smarmeron said:

@Life_ina_market_town
Being a lawyer yourself, you could no doubt prove that the police are whiter than white, businesses and the financial sector are merely guilty of minor oversights, politicians are without taint, and the judicial system is fair and just, from benefit cheats to the libor fixers.
The fact that all these groups know each other at a personal level (except the benefits cheats), and mix freely in each others company, often with the same school ties, is proof of their incorruptibility.
I hold the opinion that you are talking bullcr*p, and you know it, or your lack of awareness of current affairs is more woeful than a primary five schoolchild.
Try reading a paper some day instead of trying to prop up a system that has become little more than an inherited monarchy and baronial system of back scratching.
Our unwritten constitution is supposed to work on "honour" and "duty", but neither of these shows much monetary profit.

Four points: (1) I am not, and have never claimed to be a lawyer. (2) On your allegations of judicial corruption, you have nothing more than speculation, innuendo and insinuation, as I thought. You do some have some conspiratorial cod-Marxian sociology, though. (3) I spend no time whatever trying to prop up any system, whether monarchical, baronial or otherwise. (4) As for allegations of a lack of awareness and reading, Matthew 7:3 springs to mind.

TheScreamingEagles

peter_from_putney said:

Shadsy reports:

Scottish punters overwhelmingly backing a YES vote, say bookies.

It's squeaky bum time for those NO punters. Ahem, not to mention those who linked this with a <80% Indy Referendum turnout.</p>

Remember when Shadsy only received bets for UKIP to win Newark, IN NEWARK

The bookies reported that they had failed to take a single bet on the Tories in the town’s betting shops on Tuesday.

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/06/03/ladbrokes-report-surge-of-money-on-ukip-in-newark-and-no-con-bets/

Alanbrooke

Does anyone really care about Boris apart from Boris ?

TheScreamingEagles

Treacherous pig-dog apologises for his public act of betrayal, no I'm not talking about Douglas Carswell

Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak 3m

#Mercedes announces Nico #Rosberg has apologised an "error of judgement" after crash with team-mate Lewis #Hamilton at Belgian Grand Prix

Tykejohnno

felix said: -

It has been illuminating to listen to left-wingers today fulminating against the 'racism' of those obsessed by Rotherham. Easy to see how the abuse was tolerated and even flourished when junior staff raised issues - no doubt their concerns were shot down in much the same way.



Mostly by left wing posters who live in indigenous white area's and wouldn't have a clue about multicultural Britain if it bitten them on the ar$e.

Sean_F

Patrick said:

I wonder if we are starting to see the beginning of a journey where top notch candidates start to push out the sectionable in UKIP. They seem to have gained a Carswell and lost a Lord. Farage needs alot more heavy hitting fellow travellers to turn the party into an electoral force that can not only win a solid share of the vote but win seats too. I expect, for example, that the Speaker will be pretty much obliged to grant Carswell a question at every future PMQ (as the sole voice of one voter in 5 or 6). That could be a laugh.

Something like 20,000 people have joined UKIP since the start of 2013, a fair number of whom have held office/been councillors in other parties. So, one would expect a rise in candidate quality.

TheScreamingEagles

There are two main implications for Carswell defection

1) Increases the chances that the next Tory leader will be an outer. Phil Hammond, is an outer, and you can still get 16/1 on him as next Tory leader with Ladbrokes.

2) Is there a market up on next UKIP leader, Farage is toast for a variety of reasons, if he doesn't win Thanet South, and Carswell holds Clacton, then can the Kippers be led by a non MP?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, be nice to Rosberg. I hope he wins the title.

[Tipped at 16/1 with Ladbrokes and 24/1 with Betfair pre-season].

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, be nice to Rosberg. I hope he wins the title.

[Tipped at 16/1 with Ladbrokes and 24/1 with Betfair pre-season].

I know, but he's still all those epithets I ascribed to him

Slackbladder

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, be nice to Rosberg. I hope he wins the title.

[Tipped at 16/1 with Ladbrokes and 24/1 with Betfair pre-season].

I'm on Rosberg as well for the championship..nice little earner if he wins.

woody662

Worse day for the Tories all year yesterday and we take the lead in a poll today. Funny old business politics.

Sean_F

TheScreamingEagles said:

There are two main implications for Carswell defection

1) Increases the chances that the next Tory leader will be an outer. Phil Hammond, is an outer, and you can still get 16/1 on him as next Tory leader with Ladbrokes.

2) Is there a market up on next UKIP leader, Farage is toast for a variety of reasons, if he doesn't win Thanet South, and Carswell holds Clacton, then can the Kippers be led by a non MP?

TheScreamingEagles said:

There are two main implications for Carswell defection

2) Is there a market up on next UKIP leader, Farage is toast for a variety of reasons, if he doesn't win Thanet South, and Carswell holds Clacton, then can the Kippers be led by a non MP?

IIRC, the SDLP managed it for a while.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, Hamilton isn't a saint. In Bahrain I believe he used, against agreement/orders, a superior engine mode to keep Rosberg behind him.

Hamilton's also taking bits out of cars when passing Button and Raikkonen this season.

Most importantly, if Rosberg wins it'd be rather nice for my accounts. I just wish I'd put more on him.

Smarmeron

@Life_ina_market_town
Never read any articles about "crooked" lawyers, or the inability of the majority of complaints about them being upheld?
Have you ever wondered why a benefit cheat gets a prison sentence and those that appropriate millions walk away?
We have a society that holds those at the bottom of the pile as fit only for harsh punishment, while the same behaviors of those with "power" and "influence" tend to be found innocent, or given a laxest of sentences (their "shame" being seen as sufficient)?
If you want to know why child abuse and corruption can thrive in this country, it is because the higher up the food chain you are, the less the actual accountability, and the higher your pay.
Want to be a top judge? don't rock the establishment boat too hard.

peter_from_putney

woody662 said:

Worse day for the Tories all year yesterday and we take the lead in a poll today. Funny old business politics.

Even funnier is that UKIP are shown as being down 2%. My 4/1 bet on the Blues winning Clacton is looking better by the minute!

TheScreamingEagles

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

There are two main implications for Carswell defection

1) Increases the chances that the next Tory leader will be an outer. Phil Hammond, is an outer, and you can still get 16/1 on him as next Tory leader with Ladbrokes.

2) Is there a market up on next UKIP leader, Farage is toast for a variety of reasons, if he doesn't win Thanet South, and Carswell holds Clacton, then can the Kippers be led by a non MP?

TheScreamingEagles said:

There are two main implications for Carswell defection

2) Is there a market up on next UKIP leader, Farage is toast for a variety of reasons, if he doesn't win Thanet South, and Carswell holds Clacton, then can the Kippers be led by a non MP?

IIRC, the SDLP managed it for a while.

But that was the SDLP, UKIP are the party that won the Euros, and in most polls are in third place.

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, Hamilton isn't a saint. In Bahrain I believe he used, against agreement/orders, a superior engine mode to keep Rosberg behind him.

Hamilton's also taking bits out of cars when passing Button and Raikkonen this season.

Most importantly, if Rosberg wins it'd be rather nice for my accounts. I just wish I'd put more on him.

Don't say bad things about our Lewis, are you sure you're British.

Whereas Rosberg, is just a nasty little German/Monacian/Finish shunt (sic)

AndyJS

UKIP must be praying the Conservative candidate is either Boris or Roger Lord. Either would guarantee a landslide victory for Carswell IMO.

currystar

Oddly I think that yesterdays event show UKIP in their true light. They are Nigel Farages play thing. He runs the organisation like a dictatorship, not a democratic political party. What he says goes and thats it. How can you select a parliamentary candidate and then replace him without any consultation or the good grace to tell the man himself. I wonder how long UKIP members will put up with this dictatorship especially if they attract more capable people.

Sunil_Prasannan

Sean_F said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

There are two main implications for Carswell defection

1) Increases the chances that the next Tory leader will be an outer. Phil Hammond, is an outer, and you can still get 16/1 on him as next Tory leader with Ladbrokes.

2) Is there a market up on next UKIP leader, Farage is toast for a variety of reasons, if he doesn't win Thanet South, and Carswell holds Clacton, then can the Kippers be led by a non MP?

TheScreamingEagles said:

There are two main implications for Carswell defection

2) Is there a market up on next UKIP leader, Farage is toast for a variety of reasons, if he doesn't win Thanet South, and Carswell holds Clacton, then can the Kippers be led by a non MP?

IIRC, the SDLP managed it for a while.

DUP's Robinson lost his seat in 2010.

HurstLlama

TheScreamingEagles said:

There are two main implications for Carswell defection

1) Increases the chances that the next Tory leader will be an outer. Phil Hammond, is an outer, and you can still get 16/1 on him as next Tory leader with Ladbrokes.

2) Is there a market up on next UKIP leader, Farage is toast for a variety of reasons, if he doesn't win Thanet South, and Carswell holds Clacton, then can the Kippers be led by a non MP?

1. Yes, Hammond maybe an outer but he has the charisma of plague rat. Who would want to be let by a bean-counter? 16/1 is much to short.

2. The thing about Farage is he is popular with the membership and the section of the public that might be persuaded to vote UKIP. So he is certainly not toast this side of the GE, his fate after that is inextricably bound with how his party gets on. That is so unpredictable this far out it is not worth betting on.

Richard_Nabavi

It's an interesting idea, and it would certainly help Boris in any future leadership election in the sense that, if he could bring it off, he'd be seen as doing something really powerful for the party, not just for his own career.

However, I think TSE has it right: it's not a London seat, and that's probably fatal to the idea. In addition Smithson Jnr's point about this not really being a Boris-friendly constituency may also be right.

So, on balance, I don't think it's going to happen, although 33/1 reflects that well enough so it might not be a bad speculative bet.

TheScreamingEagles

Pedantry alert.

What the eff do you call someone from Monaco?

Smarmeron

@TheScreamingEagles
Rich bastards?

Tissue_Price

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pedantry alert.

What the eff do you call someone from Monaco?

Monagesque?

EDIT: nearly remembered, it's Monégasque

Richard_Nabavi

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pedantry alert.

What the eff do you call someone from Monaco?

Rich?

MarkHopkins

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pedantry alert.

What the eff do you call someone from Monaco?

Rich.

AndyJS

currystar said:

Oddly I think that yesterdays event show UKIP in their true light. They are Nigel Farages play thing. He runs the organisation like a dictatorship, not a democratic political party. What he says goes and thats it. How can you select a parliamentary candidate and then replace him without any consultation or the good grace to tell the man himself. I wonder how long UKIP members will put up with this dictatorship especially if they attract more capable people.

Is that why Farage put himself through a hustings in Thanet South instead of just assuming he'd be the candidate?

It's entirely normal for a defecting MP to be given first choice to re-contest their seat for their new party.

edmundintokyo

I don't think it would be helpful to the Tories for Boris to run in Clacton, because he'd vastly increase the media interest in a by-election which they'd probably still lose.

MaxPB

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, Hamilton isn't a saint. In Bahrain I believe he used, against agreement/orders, a superior engine mode to keep Rosberg behind him.

Hamilton's also taking bits out of cars when passing Button and Raikkonen this season.

Most importantly, if Rosberg wins it'd be rather nice for my accounts. I just wish I'd put more on him.

Rosberg is a cheat. He cheated on Monaco and he cheated in Spa. Mercedes let him get away with it. Worse still hr is a mediocre driver flattered by a more reliable car than his team mate. Hamilton is still 50 points down because of 3 DNFs to Rosberg's one.

As for Bahrain Mercedes apologised to Hamilton because they realise it was unreasonable to ask him to be in the lower engine mode after the safety car eroded his 10 second lead over Rosberg who was on better tyres.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, isn't Hamilton a tax exile?

I'll always support a chap I've backed at 16/1 and who's leading the title race

Monegasque, I think.

CarlottaVance

peter_from_putney said:

Shadsy reports:

Scottish punters overwhelmingly backing a YES vote, say bookies.

It's squeaky bum time for those NO punters. Ahem, not to mention those who linked this with a <80% Indy Referendum turnout.</p>

Shadsy also says:

Does that mean the betting markets are “wrong” and underestimating the true chance of a vote for Independence and missing the real “feeling on the ground”? Maybe, but it’s also perfectly plausible that people who have less emotional capital invested in the result are forming a more objective opinion on the likely outcome.

We all know what models of calm, dispassionate rational analysis the YESERS are, don't we?

TheScreamingEagles

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

There are two main implications for Carswell defection

1) Increases the chances that the next Tory leader will be an outer. Phil Hammond, is an outer, and you can still get 16/1 on him as next Tory leader with Ladbrokes.

2) Is there a market up on next UKIP leader, Farage is toast for a variety of reasons, if he doesn't win Thanet South, and Carswell holds Clacton, then can the Kippers be led by a non MP?

1. Yes, Hammond maybe an outer but he has the charisma of plague rat. Who would want to be let by a bean-counter? 16/1 is much to short.

2. The thing about Farage is he is popular with the membership and the section of the public that might be persuaded to vote UKIP. So he is certainly not toast this side of the GE, his fate after that is inextricably bound with how his party gets on. That is so unpredictable this far out it is not worth betting on.

Hammond has unshakeably calm, he's competent, he has a very successful business career.

The thing that might hold him back is that he did PPE

DecrepitJohnL

Boris has been cut to 20/1 by Shadsy. I'd have bet at 33s but not 20s.

JohnLoony

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pedantry alert.

What the eff do you call someone from Monaco?

Monégasque, of course.

Peter_the_Punter

On topic, this a complete no-no for Boris, surely?

He might not win, and it wouldn't necessarily enhance his Leadership prospects if he did. (He needs a London seat, not one by the seaside.)

The Tories do have a decent chance (well, 20% anyway) of holding Clacton IF they pick a sensible candidate and throw everything at it. Boris would just look like a carpetbagger.

And he's far too canny to put his name forward.

TheScreamingEagles

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pedantry alert.

What the eff do you call someone from Monaco?

Monagesque?

EDIT: nearly remembered, it's Monégasque

Thank you

fitalass

Agreed. I wouldn't dance to either Carswell's or UKIP's timetable in this by-election. Having left his constituents in a lurch just months before the next GE so he can cynically and self indulgently grand stand, the Tories should play him at his own game. Delay the by-election, hold an open primary to select the Conservative candidate and allow them and their team to embed their campaign locally. It worked for Labour in Glenrothes by-election back in 2008 when they were under pressure from the SNP having lost Glasgow East by-election.

Tissue_Price said:

If the only way to plausibly defend a by-election is by getting the Mayor of London to stand, you probably shouldn't get the Mayor of London to stand.

A local doctor or teacher might be a better idea.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Max, Spa's not as clear cut as it seems. Odds on Rosberg losing his front wing, at least partly, must've been 95%+. Odds on Hamilton getting a puncture are far lower. If you're going to batter someone off the road, you don't do it that way because the odds were against Rosberg (he is having the lion's share of the luck this year).

Also, the safety car meant Rosberg's tyres lost their peak performance trundling around rather than charging, so it may well've harmed the German more.

You've also ignored Rosberg's bad luck at Hungary, and the 7 point loss in Canada because of decreased performance. Hamilton has clearly had worse luck overall, but it is not all one way.

Edited extra bit: the 'trundling' comment refers to Bahrain, for clarity.

JohnLoony

currystar said:

Oddly I think that yesterdays event show UKIP in their true light. They are Nigel Farages play thing. He runs the organisation like a dictatorship, not a democratic political party. What he says goes and thats it. How can you select a parliamentary candidate and then replace him without any consultation or the good grace to tell the man himself? I wonder how long UKIP members will put up with this dictatorship especially if they attract more capable people.

You can do it by abiding the rules set out in the UKIP constitution, which explicitly says that the National Executive Committee selects the candidate for any parliamentary by-election, regardless of whether a candidate has or has not yet been selected for the general election.

CarlottaVance

What are the chances Dave "let's it be known" that Boris was sounded out, but declined, "putting himself before the party".....

HurstLlama

currystar said:

Oddly I think that yesterdays event show UKIP in their true light. They are Nigel Farages play thing. He runs the organisation like a dictatorship, not a democratic political party. What he says goes and thats it. How can you select a parliamentary candidate and then replace him without any consultation or the good grace to tell the man himself. I wonder how long UKIP members will put up with this dictatorship especially if they attract more capable people.

Mr Star, If I had been in anyway involved then I would have made sure Lord was squared just before the announcement was made. Not to have done was in my view discourteous and a mistake. On your point that UKIP is Farage's plaything and he runs it not as a democratic party, well take out the hyperbole and there is something in that. However, it seems to be working quite well at the moment. In time it will not work as well and it will change as the party grows even bigger.

TheWatcher

Carswell might be feeling lonely for a while.

'Prominent backbenchers Peter Bone, Stewart Jackson and Nadine Dorries are among those to have ruled out a defection to Nigel Farage's party.'

'Among MPs to have ruled out joining UKIP include long-standing EU rebels Mark Pritchard, John Baron, Bill Cash, Bernard Jenkin and Jacob-Rees Mogg.'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28977961

dr_spyn

Something for the weekend
newspapers, sir.

"The Jay report said senior councillors were told of the town abuse problem’s ‘in the most explicit terms’ in a seminar in 2004/05 - but did not act. A Labour Party spokesperson said: “The party is reviewing what further action is necessary against any councillor who may have been involved in the appalling failure to protect children.”

http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/local/labour-investigating-further-action-against-rotherham-councillors-who-presided-over-scandal-1-6812525#.VABzcteVIFQ.twitter

HurstLlama

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

There are two main implications for Carswell defection

1) Increases the chances that the next Tory leader will be an outer. Phil Hammond, is an outer, and you can still get 16/1 on him as next Tory leader with Ladbrokes.

2) Is there a market up on next UKIP leader, Farage is toast for a variety of reasons, if he doesn't win Thanet South, and Carswell holds Clacton, then can the Kippers be led by a non MP?

1. Yes, Hammond maybe an outer but he has the charisma of plague rat. Who would want to be let by a bean-counter? 16/1 is much to short.

2. The thing about Farage is he is popular with the membership and the section of the public that might be persuaded to vote UKIP. So he is certainly not toast this side of the GE, his fate after that is inextricably bound with how his party gets on. That is so unpredictable this far out it is not worth betting on.

Hammond has unshakeably calm, he's competent, he has a very successful business career.

The thing that might hold him back is that he did PPE

He is a bloody bean counter! At best you might call him a safe pair of hands. Both of which are reasons he did well at defence after Fox (well, from the perspective of the Conservative party that is). However, a leader of a party has to have a certain zing to attract voters. They have to be able to lead. Hammond couldn't lead a squad of ducklings across a fire bucket.

Peter_the_Punter

DecrepitJohnL said:

Boris has been cut to 20/1 by Shadsy. I'd have bet at 33s but not 20s.

Decrepit

Your political observations are a pleasure to read but you need to brush up a bit on your betting.

20/1 represents a 4.76% chance; 33/1 equates to 3.03%. For all practical purposes, that's hardly any difference at all.

Personally I'd want at least 100/1, and even then I would have no more than a few sea-shells on it.

TheScreamingEagles

Hmmmmm

German employment minister Andrea Nahles is considering new “anti-stress” legislation, banning companies from contacting employees out of hours.

Reacting to rising levels of workplace stress, Nahles has commissioned a report investigating the viability of legislation that would restrict the use of emails to contact staff outside of work.

http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/aug/29/germany-anti-stress-law-ban-on-emails-out-of-office-hours?CMP=twt_gu

JohnLoony

Patrick said:

I wonder if we are starting to see the beginning of a journey where top notch candidates start to push out the sectionable in UKIP. They seem to have gained a Carswell and lost a Lord. Farage needs a lot more heavy hitting fellow travellers to turn the party into an electoral force that can not only win a solid share of the vote but win seats too. I expect, for example, that the Speaker will be pretty much obliged to grant Carswell a question at every future PMQ (as the sole voice of one voter in 5 or 6). That could be a laugh.

No he won't. Carswell is the representative of 67,000 electors in Clacton, not the representative of all UKIP supporters. He is entitled to be called to speak in the House (including PMQs) only as often as any other MP.

Richard_Tyndall

TheWatcher said:

Carswell might be feeling lonely for a while.

'Prominent backbenchers Peter Bone, Stewart Jackson and Nadine Dorries are among those to have ruled out a defection to Nigel Farage's party.'

'Among MPs to have ruled out joining UKIP include long-standing EU rebels Mark Pritchard, John Baron, Bill Cash, Bernard Jenkin and Jacob-Rees Mogg.'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28977961

No one will even think about making a move until they see if Carswell wins his seat back. He has kind of set a precedent in that any more Tory-UKIP defections would be expected to involve a by-election and if Carswell cannot win in the most favorable of circumstances then they would simply be committing political suicide to follow him.

That does not mean they will not revisit the idea if he wins but for now they will all deny any such plans.

I would even go so far as to suspect that if Stuart Wheeler and Farage had any sense that is exactly the way they would have planned it.

Richard_Tyndall

HurstLlama said:

currystar said:

Oddly I think that yesterdays event show UKIP in their true light. They are Nigel Farages play thing. He runs the organisation like a dictatorship, not a democratic political party. What he says goes and thats it. How can you select a parliamentary candidate and then replace him without any consultation or the good grace to tell the man himself. I wonder how long UKIP members will put up with this dictatorship especially if they attract more capable people.

Mr Star, If I had been in anyway involved then I would have made sure Lord was squared just before the announcement was made. Not to have done was in my view discourteous and a mistake. On your point that UKIP is Farage's plaything and he runs it not as a democratic party, well take out the hyperbole and there is something in that. However, it seems to be working quite well at the moment. In time it will not work as well and it will change as the party grows even bigger.

By that time there are plenty of us within the party who hope that UKIP will have a new leader.

Peter_the_Punter

TheWatcher said:

Carswell might be feeling lonely for a while.

'Prominent backbenchers Peter Bone, Stewart Jackson and Nadine Dorries are among those to have ruled out a defection to Nigel Farage's party.'

'Among MPs to have ruled out joining UKIP include long-standing EU rebels Mark Pritchard, John Baron, Bill Cash, Bernard Jenkin and Jacob-Rees Mogg.'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28977961

The name of Mark Reckless is conspicuously absent from that list, Wotcher.

Worth a dabble at 3/1 on Shadsy's 'next one out' market?

isam

TheScreamingEagles said:

Daniel Hannan blames Douglas Carswell for Ed becoming PM and no referendum. Kinda

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100284469/douglas-carswell-will-win-big-with-implications-for-both-conservatives-and-ukip/

Reading that 1/4 ukip looks value

[Deleted User]

JohnLoony said:

Patrick said:

I wonder if we are starting to see the beginning of a journey where top notch candidates start to push out the sectionable in UKIP. They seem to have gained a Carswell and lost a Lord. Farage needs a lot more heavy hitting fellow travellers to turn the party into an electoral force that can not only win a solid share of the vote but win seats too. I expect, for example, that the Speaker will be pretty much obliged to grant Carswell a question at every future PMQ (as the sole voice of one voter in 5 or 6). That could be a laugh.

No he won't. Carswell is the representative of 67,000 electors in Clacton, not the representative of all UKIP supporters. He is entitled to be called to speak in the House (including PMQs) only as often as any other MP.

Hippopotamus

TheWatcher

Peter_the_Punter said:

TheWatcher said:

Carswell might be feeling lonely for a while.

'Prominent backbenchers Peter Bone, Stewart Jackson and Nadine Dorries are among those to have ruled out a defection to Nigel Farage's party.'

'Among MPs to have ruled out joining UKIP include long-standing EU rebels Mark Pritchard, John Baron, Bill Cash, Bernard Jenkin and Jacob-Rees Mogg.'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28977961

The name of Mark Reckless is conspicuously absent from that list, Wotcher.

Worth a dabble at 3/1 on Shadsy's 'next one out' market?

Hard to tell.

'Mark Reckless, a close friend and Oxford contemporary of Carswell's who had been identified by senior Tories as the next possible defector, said on Thursday night that he had no plans to leave the Tories. Reckless told the Guardian: "Douglas is a friend so I don't want to criticise him personally. If people want a vote for an independent Britain they need a Conservative government."'

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/28/douglas-carswell-ukip-conservatives-byelection

Bonus quote from Goldsmith -

'Richmond Park’s Zac Goldsmith said: “Not me. I love UKIP’s emphasis on direct democracy and so on, but they’re hopeless on the environment.”'

currystar

Richard_Tyndall said:

HurstLlama said:

currystar said:

Oddly I think that yesterdays event show UKIP in their true light. They are Nigel Farages play thing. He runs the organisation like a dictatorship, not a democratic political party. What he says goes and thats it. How can you select a parliamentary candidate and then replace him without any consultation or the good grace to tell the man himself. I wonder how long UKIP members will put up with this dictatorship especially if they attract more capable people.

Mr Star, If I had been in anyway involved then I would have made sure Lord was squared just before the announcement was made. Not to have done was in my view discourteous and a mistake. On your point that UKIP is Farage's plaything and he runs it not as a democratic party, well take out the hyperbole and there is something in that. However, it seems to be working quite well at the moment. In time it will not work as well and it will change as the party grows even bigger.

By that time there are plenty of us within the party who hope that UKIP will have a new leader.

I dont see that happening, Mr F just loves attention and power, he has to be in charge.

HurstLlama

Richard_Tyndall said:

HurstLlama said:

currystar said:

Oddly I think that yesterdays event show UKIP in their true light. They are Nigel Farages play thing. He runs the organisation like a dictatorship, not a democratic political party. What he says goes and thats it. How can you select a parliamentary candidate and then replace him without any consultation or the good grace to tell the man himself. I wonder how long UKIP members will put up with this dictatorship especially if they attract more capable people.

Mr Star, If I had been in anyway involved then I would have made sure Lord was squared just before the announcement was made. Not to have done was in my view discourteous and a mistake. On your point that UKIP is Farage's plaything and he runs it not as a democratic party, well take out the hyperbole and there is something in that. However, it seems to be working quite well at the moment. In time it will not work as well and it will change as the party grows even bigger.

By that time there are plenty of us within the party who hope that UKIP will have a new leader.

If you say so Mr. Tyndall, I ain't met any yet. The chap seems to be doing a good job at the moment and that is what counts.

isam

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheWatcher said:

Carswell might be feeling lonely for a while.

'Prominent backbenchers Peter Bone, Stewart Jackson and Nadine Dorries are among those to have ruled out a defection to Nigel Farage's party.'

'Among MPs to have ruled out joining UKIP include long-standing EU rebels Mark Pritchard, John Baron, Bill Cash, Bernard Jenkin and Jacob-Rees Mogg.'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28977961

No one will even think about making a move until they see if Carswell wins his seat back. He has kind of set a precedent in that any more Tory-UKIP defections would be expected to involve a by-election and if Carswell cannot win in the most favorable of circumstances then they would simply be committing political suicide to follow him.

That does not mean they will not revisit the idea if he wins but for now they will all deny any such plans.

I would even go so far as to suspect that if Stuart Wheeler and Farage had any sense that is exactly the way they would have planned it.

Wheeler said as much on sky news earlier

Richard_Tyndall

fitalass said:

Agreed. I wouldn't dance to either Carswell's or UKIP's timetable in this by-election. Having left his constituents in a lurch just months before the next GE so he can cynically and self indulgently grand stand, the Tories should play him at his own game. Delay the by-election, hold an open primary to select the Conservative candidate and allow them and their team to embed their campaign locally. It worked for Labour in Glenrothes by-election back in 2008 when they were under pressure from the SNP having lost Glasgow East by-election.

Tissue_Price said:

If the only way to plausibly defend a by-election is by getting the Mayor of London to stand, you probably shouldn't get the Mayor of London to stand.

A local doctor or teacher might be a better idea.

Serious and non partisan question. Whose decision is it? Does it come down to how Carswell made his announcement?

Scenario 1

I am Joining UKIP
I am Resigning my seat

Seat is UKIP's for a few seconds so they get to pick the date

Scenario 2

I am Resigning my seat
I am Joining UKIP

Seat was Tory at the time of resignation and so they get to pick the date.

I don't know what the rules are on this so some enlightement would be very welcome.

isam

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Daniel Hannan blames Douglas Carswell for Ed becoming PM and no referendum. Kinda

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100284469/douglas-carswell-will-win-big-with-implications-for-both-conservatives-and-ukip/

Reading that 1/4 ukip looks value

Hillbillys are 2/7

TheWatcher

currystar said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

HurstLlama said:

currystar said:

Oddly I think that yesterdays event show UKIP in their true light. They are Nigel Farages play thing. He runs the organisation like a dictatorship, not a democratic political party. What he says goes and thats it. How can you select a parliamentary candidate and then replace him without any consultation or the good grace to tell the man himself. I wonder how long UKIP members will put up with this dictatorship especially if they attract more capable people.

Mr Star, If I had been in anyway involved then I would have made sure Lord was squared just before the announcement was made. Not to have done was in my view discourteous and a mistake. On your point that UKIP is Farage's plaything and he runs it not as a democratic party, well take out the hyperbole and there is something in that. However, it seems to be working quite well at the moment. In time it will not work as well and it will change as the party grows even bigger.

By that time there are plenty of us within the party who hope that UKIP will have a new leader.

I dont see that happening, Mr F just loves attention and power, he has to be in charge.

Old Alleynian contemporaries watch his antics with amusement.

MarkHopkins

.

Peter_the_Punter said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Boris has been cut to 20/1 by Shadsy. I'd have bet at 33s but not 20s.

Decrepit

Your political observations are a pleasure to read but you need to brush up a bit on your betting.

20/1 represents a 4.76% chance; 33/1 equates to 3.03%. For all practical purposes, that's hardly any difference at all.

Personally I'd want at least 100/1, and even then I would have no more than a few sea-shells on it.

Pedant: Isn't 33/1 = 2.94%

Morris_Dancer

Diplomacy MkIV - could persons to whom I've sent a message please reply promptly. Only a few hours left now.

Peter_the_Punter

@Watcher

Thanks for that.

I'll keep my powder dry. Seems to me the smart move for would-be defectors is to wait and see how Duggie gets on, although perhaps the shrewder types will see how the by-election campaign is shaping up and if it's looking good for the Kippers, they may jump ship early.

A bruising campaign can be expected. A UKIP win would give them the kind of momentum that would be hard to stop by the time the GE rolls around. Otoh, if the Tories can spike their guns in October.....

Pulpstar

TheWatcher said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

TheWatcher said:

Carswell might be feeling lonely for a while.

'Prominent backbenchers Peter Bone, Stewart Jackson and Nadine Dorries are among those to have ruled out a defection to Nigel Farage's party.'

'Among MPs to have ruled out joining UKIP include long-standing EU rebels Mark Pritchard, John Baron, Bill Cash, Bernard Jenkin and Jacob-Rees Mogg.'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28977961

The name of Mark Reckless is conspicuously absent from that list, Wotcher.

Worth a dabble at 3/1 on Shadsy's 'next one out' market?

Hard to tell.

'Mark Reckless, a close friend and Oxford contemporary of Carswell's who had been identified by senior Tories as the next possible defector, said on Thursday night that he had no plans to leave the Tories. Reckless told the Guardian: "Douglas is a friend so I don't want to criticise him personally. If people want a vote for an independent Britain they need a Conservative government."'

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/28/douglas-carswell-ukip-conservatives-byelection

Bonus quote from Goldsmith -

'Richmond Park’s Zac Goldsmith said: “Not me. I love UKIP’s emphasis on direct democracy and so on, but they’re hopeless on the environment.”'

Everyone always says they are loyal, won't defect blah blah in politics. Until they do.

Peter_the_Punter

@MarkHopkins

Correct, Mark. I must have hit the wrong key.

Collect your Pedantry Prize on the way out.

MonikerDiCanio

TheWatcher said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

TheWatcher said:

Carswell might be feeling lonely for a while.

'Prominent backbenchers Peter Bone, Stewart Jackson and Nadine Dorries are among those to have ruled out a defection to Nigel Farage's party.'

'Among MPs to have ruled out joining UKIP include long-standing EU rebels Mark Pritchard, John Baron, Bill Cash, Bernard Jenkin and Jacob-Rees Mogg.'

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28977961

The name of Mark Reckless is conspicuously absent from that list, Wotcher.

Worth a dabble at 3/1 on Shadsy's 'next one out' market?

Hard to tell.

'Mark Reckless, a close friend and Oxford contemporary of Carswell's who had been identified by senior Tories as the next possible defector, said on Thursday night that he had no plans to leave the Tories. Reckless told the Guardian: "Douglas is a friend so I don't want to criticise him personally. If people want a vote for an independent Britain they need a Conservative government."'

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/aug/28/douglas-carswell-ukip-conservatives-byelection

Bonus quote from Goldsmith -

'Richmond Park’s Zac Goldsmith said: “Not me. I love UKIP’s emphasis on direct democracy and so on, but they’re hopeless on the environment.”'

Did Carswell go to Oxford ?

Richard_Tyndall

HurstLlama said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

HurstLlama said:

currystar said:

Oddly I think that yesterdays event show UKIP in their true light. They are Nigel Farages play thing. He runs the organisation like a dictatorship, not a democratic political party. What he says goes and thats it. How can you select a parliamentary candidate and then replace him without any consultation or the good grace to tell the man himself. I wonder how long UKIP members will put up with this dictatorship especially if they attract more capable people.

Mr Star, If I had been in anyway involved then I would have made sure Lord was squared just before the announcement was made. Not to have done was in my view discourteous and a mistake. On your point that UKIP is Farage's plaything and he runs it not as a democratic party, well take out the hyperbole and there is something in that. However, it seems to be working quite well at the moment. In time it will not work as well and it will change as the party grows even bigger.

By that time there are plenty of us within the party who hope that UKIP will have a new leader.

If you say so Mr. Tyndall, I ain't met any yet. The chap seems to be doing a good job at the moment and that is what counts.

You only have to look at the results of the last leadership election. Yes Farage won handsomely but there was plenty of support for other candidates as well. I certainly didn't vote for Nigel.

I am not saying he is not well supported at the moment. Just that there are plenty of us who are looking forward to a post Farage UKIP where decisions are not so much dependent on the will of one man.

Pulpstar

Offtopic:

Freddy Mercury is rescuing people from the sea:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-28953237

FrancisUrquhart

dr_spyn said:

Something for the weekend
newspapers, sir.

"The Jay report said senior councillors were told of the town abuse problem’s ‘in the most explicit terms’ in a seminar in 2004/05 - but did not act. A Labour Party spokesperson said: “The party is reviewing what further action is necessary against any councillor who may have been involved in the appalling failure to protect children.”

http://www.thestar.co.uk/news/local/labour-investigating-further-action-against-rotherham-councillors-who-presided-over-scandal-1-6812525#.VABzcteVIFQ.twitter

Not the only ones with some serious questions to answer as well....Barnardos, the local "community" leaders, etc etc etc...All have been accused of knowing a lot about of what was going on, but whose actions were at best inadequate.

HurstLlama

Richard_Tyndall said:

fitalass said:

Agreed. I wouldn't dance to either Carswell's or UKIP's timetable in this by-election. Having left his constituents in a lurch just months before the next GE so he can cynically and self indulgently grand stand, the Tories should play him at his own game. Delay the by-election, hold an open primary to select the Conservative candidate and allow them and their team to embed their campaign locally. It worked for Labour in Glenrothes by-election back in 2008 when they were under pressure from the SNP having lost Glasgow East by-election.

Tissue_Price said:

If the only way to plausibly defend a by-election is by getting the Mayor of London to stand, you probably shouldn't get the Mayor of London to stand.

A local doctor or teacher might be a better idea.

Serious and non partisan question. Whose decision is it? Does it come down to how Carswell made his announcement?

Scenario 1

I am Joining UKIP
I am Resigning my seat

Seat is UKIP's for a few seconds so they get to pick the date

Scenario 2

I am Resigning my seat
I am Joining UKIP

Seat was Tory at the time of resignation and so they get to pick the date.

I don't know what the rules are on this so some enlightement would be very welcome.

Nick Palmer, who probably knows more about parliamentary procedure than any of us here, posted on this yesterday. To paraphrase and be brief, the answer seems to be that it is down to the Conservatives to move the writ but it would be shocking bad form to do so in a way that would be against Carswell's wishes. Oh, and under the rules any member of Parliament can move the writ it doesn't have to be someone from the government, so if the Conservatives start playing silly buggers others could step in.

Socrates

FPT:

Smarmeron said:

@Socrates
It shows how callous some right wing posters are that they only want to talk about abuse cases where they think they can get political traction.
Child abuse seems to have been covered up in several other cases, covering all walks of life and regions.
A laser like focus on only those ones that fit our political agendas without viewing them as a whole, does no party or commentator any credit.
Yes Rotheram is a scandal, and should be investigated, but it is not a one party or group problem as all the other cases have shown.
There is evidence, surprisingly enough, that even Mr.s T and her party whips could turn a blind eye when it suited them, and in the case of the whips, possibly used knowledge of misdeeds to ensure party discipline.

Except that I and others posted repeatedly on other child abuse cases such as those carried out by the Catholic church. I accept that I have posted more on the Pakistani grooming gangs, but the reason for that has been (a) it's been bigger in scale in this country and (b) the other cases were all over the news headlines when this one was deliberately overlooked by the media. I felt that it was an outrage that such a chain of cases was being dismissed as "isolated incidents". I have been fully vindicated, even if scumbags like bigjownowls are repeating the tim line of accusing racism to anyone disgusted by this. Presumably they want the issue to quietly go away, while I think the full extent of the abuse needs to be uncovered, so will keep on posting about it.

Anorak

Pulpstar said:

Offtopic:

Freddy Mercury is rescuing people from the sea:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-28953237

Elvis is first mate.

TheScreamingEagles

The terror threat level has been raised from substantial to severe, Home Secretary Theresa May has said.

This means an attack is deemed to be "highly likely", but there is no intelligence to suggest one is is imminent.

Peter_the_Punter

@TSE

How do you know? Do you normally receive personal advance notifications?

HurstLlama

Morris_Dancer said:

Diplomacy MkIV - could persons to whom I've sent a message please reply promptly. Only a few hours left now.

Reply sent, you may be surprised by the news!

currystar

Richard_Tyndall said:

HurstLlama said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

HurstLlama said:

currystar said:

Oddly I think that yesterdays event show UKIP in their true light. They are Nigel Farages play thing. He runs the organisation like a dictatorship, not a democratic political party. What he says goes and thats it. How can you select a parliamentary candidate and then replace him without any consultation or the good grace to tell the man himself. I wonder how long UKIP members will put up with this dictatorship especially if they attract more capable people.

Mr Star, If I had been in anyway involved then I would have made sure Lord was squared just before the announcement was made. Not to have done was in my view discourteous and a mistake. On your point that UKIP is Farage's plaything and he runs it not as a democratic party, well take out the hyperbole and there is something in that. However, it seems to be working quite well at the moment. In time it will not work as well and it will change as the party grows even bigger.

By that time there are plenty of us within the party who hope that UKIP will have a new leader.

If you say so Mr. Tyndall, I ain't met any yet. The chap seems to be doing a good job at the moment and that is what counts.

You only have to look at the results of the last leadership election. Yes Farage won handsomely but there was plenty of support for other candidates as well. I certainly didn't vote for Nigel.

I am not saying he is not well supported at the moment. Just that there are plenty of us who are looking forward to a post Farage UKIP where decisions are not so much dependent on the will of one man.

It interesting that you as a party member are experiencing what it looks like to me from the outside, UKIP is controlled totally by Mr F. I dont see that as healthy.

TheScreamingEagles

Peter_the_Punter said:

@TSE

How do you know? Do you normally receive personal advance notifications?

Yup, so I don't wear my rucksack in public and not get shot by the police.

Smarmeron

@TheScreamingEagles
I am glad "Theresa" is on the ball with this.
Does she inform us of the extra steps we should take from those we are supposed to take for a "Highly likely" scenario, as opposed to a "Substantial" one?

TheWatcher

Peter_the_Punter said:

@TSE

How do you know? Do you normally receive personal advance notifications?

tis on Sky.

SimonStClare

TheWatcher said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

@TSE

How do you know? Do you normally receive personal advance notifications?

tis on Sky.

and the beeb.- http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28986271

HurstLlama

Richard_Tyndall said:

HurstLlama said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

HurstLlama said:

currystar said:

Oddly I think that yesterdays event show UKIP in their true light. They are Nigel Farages play thing. He runs the organisation like a dictatorship, not a democratic political party. What he says goes and thats it. How can you select a parliamentary candidate and then replace him without any consultation or the good grace to tell the man himself. I wonder how long UKIP members will put up with this dictatorship especially if they attract more capable people.

Mr Star, If I had been in anyway involved then I would have made sure Lord was squared just before the announcement was made. Not to have done was in my view discourteous and a mistake. On your point that UKIP is Farage's plaything and he runs it not as a democratic party, well take out the hyperbole and there is something in that. However, it seems to be working quite well at the moment. In time it will not work as well and it will change as the party grows even bigger.

By that time there are plenty of us within the party who hope that UKIP will have a new leader.

If you say so Mr. Tyndall, I ain't met any yet. The chap seems to be doing a good job at the moment and that is what counts.

You only have to look at the results of the last leadership election. Yes Farage won handsomely but there was plenty of support for other candidates as well. I certainly didn't vote for Nigel.

I am not saying he is not well supported at the moment. Just that there are plenty of us who are looking forward to a post Farage UKIP where decisions are not so much dependent on the will of one man.

Fair go. However, membership is rising, wider polling is still looking fairly good, the Euros went well, maybe just maybe the Party is about to win its first by-election and get an MP. You may not like the bloke, you may wish for a more collegiate leadership but now is not the time to be inward looking.

rogerh

Don't think that Clacton is an automatic shoe in for UKIP. Some friction for UKIP from GE candidate.Some local annoyance from Cons over defection.Possible anti reaction to Carswell fro causing unnecessary by election.
Price for Con win at 7/2 an attractive bet.