The optics of the Welsh and Scots... with their noses pressed up against the window pane....watching the English party on.....Ooh-er...
Is Drakeford closing the bridges?
Not this time and he can stuff it.
I'm off to Bournemouth on Thursday to watch the football in a sold-out away end before heading back to Cardiff.
I'm told Drakeford will be reviewing restrictions on the 10th Jan relating to sport. Let's see which way he jumps, as he's truly out on a limb now. The cynic in me says that the behind closed doors ludicrousness will be lifted before the 6 Nations and the world's biggest pub is opened in the heart of the Welsh capital.
While there has been some divergence between England and Wales before, not to this extent.
And both he and Sturgeon will hold out their begging bowls for HMG financial support and time for the answer to come back - no
Sturgeon will use the 'no' to ramp up the indi cause. both MD and NS put in the restrictions to try and make BJ's life more difficult rather than because they were all needed.
The researchers also find that this reduction in neutralising antibodies could impact vaccine efficacy against severe disease. In a worst-case scenario where the decay rate after a booster dose is the same as that observed after the first 2 doses, the study predicts that vaccine efficacy against severe disease (hospitalisation) may drop from 96.5% (95% CrI 96.1%–96.8%) against Delta to 80.1% (76.3%–83.02) against Omicron by 60 days after the primary vaccine course followed by a booster of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine if antibodies decay at the same rate following the booster as observed following the primary vaccine course. If this rate of decay is half that rate, the drop is estimated to be from 97.6% (95% CrI 97.4%-97.9%) against Delta to 85.9% (95% CrI 83.1%-88.3%) against Omicron. However, this could be further moderated by the increased longevity of T cell-mediated immunity.
On topic, an election night that ended with Boris Johnson not only losing his majority but his seat would rival 1997. I would not enjoy my hangover the next morning if that came to pass.
Data looks good at the moment and that is a good sign.
But we must now ensure that we are prepared for a surge in hospitalisations if we allow immunity to wane
Immunity against what though?
Well the studies clearly say that if we allow immunity to wane, Omicron is going to cause almost as much damage as Delta. And that was bad.
So we must ensure everyone is jabbed and then jabbed again
Which studies clearly say that? I don't doubt it may well be true, but has anyone actually said so?
I posted yesterday the study which shows that as immunity wanes in the population, we run into issues very quickly. This is people that have had a second jab and the immunity has waned - in that case it's almost as bad as Delta. Immunity wanes quickly, within a matter of months.
That happens with any antibody response. It’s just how the immune system works.
This is a more interesting study - Omicron does not appear to evade T cell response from prior infection with earlier variants (or vaccination).
Minimal cross-over between mutations associated with Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 and CD8+ T cell epitopes identified in COVID-19 convalescent individuals https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.06.471446v1 … both natural infection and vaccination develop T-cell based responses, in addition to antibodies. This study examined if the parts of the virus, or epitopes, targeted by the CD8+ T-cell response in thirty individuals who recovered from COVID-19 in 2020 were mutated in the Omicron variant. Only one of 52 epitopes identified in this population contained an amino acid that was mutated in Omicron. These data suggest that the T-cell immune response in previously infected, and most likely vaccinated individuals, should still be effective against Omicron.…
The researchers also find that this reduction in neutralising antibodies could impact vaccine efficacy against severe disease. In a worst-case scenario where the decay rate after a booster dose is the same as that observed after the first 2 doses, the study predicts that vaccine efficacy against severe disease (hospitalisation) may drop from 96.5% (95% CrI 96.1%–96.8%) against Delta to 80.1% (76.3%–83.02) against Omicron by 60 days after the primary vaccine course followed by a booster of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine if antibodies decay at the same rate following the booster as observed following the primary vaccine course. If this rate of decay is half that rate, the drop is estimated to be from 97.6% (95% CrI 97.4%-97.9%) against Delta to 85.9% (95% CrI 83.1%-88.3%) against Omicron. However, this could be further moderated by the increased longevity of T cell-mediated immunity.
Michael Gove is prepared to “go to war” with Rishi Sunak as he pushes to exempt high-street retailers from paying business rates as part of his levelling-up agenda, The Times has been told.
Gove, the levelling-up secretary, wants a radical overhaul of the commercial property tax because he views it as one of the most effective ways of achieving tangible change in crucial red wall seats before the next election.
He is said to be in favour of funding it by introducing an online sales tax, which would effectively add extra VAT to purchases made over the internet. Sunak, the chancellor, is resisting wholesale changes to business rates, which bring in £25 billion per year and are relatively easy to collect in comparison with other taxes. He is said to be sceptical about an online sales tax.
The Treasury will do everything they can to avoid business rate changes and exactly how does an online sales tax work?
Does it count if the good is delivered to a store rather than a home? How about delivery to the corner shop?
It's going to get utterly insane incredibly quickly.
I just don't see how this idea is going to level up the Red Wall, is the idea to discourage shopping online?
The damage to Red Wall town centres comes more from out of town shopping than online shopping - it doesn't help and shows how much Gove and co are clutching at straws.
Want to win Red Wall seats, spend money on them nowt else is going to work.
It seems to me that they basically don't have any ideas beyond the slogans. And this was obvious in GE19 to me
As a red wall town dweller what ideas does labour have ?
I think genuine investment rather than cuts over the last decade would have done a lot more for the Red Wall.
New Labour did the most levelling up of any Government in recent memory
Sorry, that is utter bilge. Labour did little for the red wall. You may be a labour fanboy and think they can do no wrong but under labour our manufacturing as a percentage of gdp halved, we lost 1/6th of our manufacturing jobs and companies closed and moved to Eastern Europe. New labour were obsessed with the so called future industries. They allowed the red wall to decline simply because they used to weigh votes here as opposed to count them.
Not a Labour fanboy dude, I've voted Tory and Lib Dem in the past, just think Labour are the best option at the moment.
The numbers don't lie, New Labour did a tremendous amount of the Red Wall, more than the Tories have done. What have the Tories done for the Red Wall?
Could Labour have done more, hell yes.
What did labour do for us ? Under labour, both govt and local govt, my town went from thriving to on its knees.
I don’t expect the Tories to do stuff for us, I expected labour to. They did sweet FA. The Tories made a promise. So far have failed. Let’s see what labour offer. They cannot take our votes for granted and do nothing for us in future
Factories closed, well paying jobs went offshore and young people moved away, but let’s celebrate a sure start centre.
Anyway weren’t your whining the other week that levelling was punishing the rich and affluent south.
No I said genuine levelling up is not making the south poorer. It's about levelling up the entire country.
No one is talking about making the south poorer. It’s not in our interests to do that and it’s levelling up not down. There’s the clue !
No, you cried and whine about London being punished when that was not the case.
Just look at the investment per head in transport for London compared to the north east ?
The south and London benefits from young people from the regions, educated and bright, moving there from the regions for the opportunities. But the moment the regions want some levelling up you’re the victim,
What, however, will happen because of the cancellation of HS2E and NPR is that subsidises elsewhere will be highlighted.
And that is going to create great problems because any penny spent to support TfL will be used up North to regain Red Wall seats - as it's an incredibly easy story - London got £xbn a year on trains yet you get zero).
And TfL needs subsidies so it's a very quick win.
A very quick win and, as @RochdalePioneers says, voters up here are not fools. It will play badly and labour will make hay with it and the Tories have no defence.
We need to be clear about two things. The New Labour government did a lot for people in the red wall. And awful lot. And that they failed to change the long term decline of many areas and decided that "blame the Tories" was enough to keep getting re-elected.
Yes the oceans of money spent on health and education and social mobility and waiting lists and poverty made a huge difference to people. But without any change in prospects and the loss of pride and town image when generational heavy industry jobs got replaced by warehouse jobs, it didn't take much pushing for people say "we've been done over".
The Tories either deliver rapidly on their grand promises or they will lose most of the red wall back to Labour. Not an enthusiastic vote, but "we did tell you it was the Tories fault" will now resonate in a way it had ceased to do so.
"The New Labour government did a lot for people in the red wall. "
I disagree with this. They did some things, but their focus was well and truly away from those areas. Their MPs often treated such areas and the concerns of the residents with contempt. And why shouldn't they? After all, who else were the people of Mansfield or Hartlepool going to vote for?
The things you mention 'health, education, social mobility' were welcome when they happened, but did f'all to address the structural issues that these areas had. That's what needs addressing, and why 'levelling up' was - and could still be - a powerful policy for either party.
I agree and disagree. When your kids are in a school literally held upright by an endoskeleton fitted to hold up ceilings, when you are working flat out for £2.20 and hour and are in grinding poverty, when you are in pain with a chronic condition where there's an 18-month waiting list to even see a specialist, you don't dismiss that New Labour shopping list.
But it needed to kick on having levelled up the worst of the effects of the Tory era and largely failed to do so.
And the Conservatives were just trying to address the worst effects of the Labour years in the 1970s.
The problem with education is that the rates of illiteracy and/or innumeracy barely change over the years. After a few lacklustre and failed attempts at helping those falling behind, New Labour massive concentrated on the top ends of education - hence the stupid 50% uni target. Whereas the country's real issues with education are at the bottom end. But that is much more intractable and generates fewer positive headlines.
I'd vote for a party that really talked about this issue and tried to address it. Functional illiteracy and innumeracy is a national scandal and a personal tragedy for those people.
Have a look at Read Easy - one of the programmes I’m proudest of having helped in a small way
The researchers also find that this reduction in neutralising antibodies could impact vaccine efficacy against severe disease. In a worst-case scenario where the decay rate after a booster dose is the same as that observed after the first 2 doses, the study predicts that vaccine efficacy against severe disease (hospitalisation) may drop from 96.5% (95% CrI 96.1%–96.8%) against Delta to 80.1% (76.3%–83.02) against Omicron by 60 days after the primary vaccine course followed by a booster of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine if antibodies decay at the same rate following the booster as observed following the primary vaccine course. If this rate of decay is half that rate, the drop is estimated to be from 97.6% (95% CrI 97.4%-97.9%) against Delta to 85.9% (95% CrI 83.1%-88.3%) against Omicron. However, this could be further moderated by the increased longevity of T cell-mediated immunity.
I know you will accuse me of “wishful thinking” again but this is all still modelling based on unknowns. The models assume outcomes based on varying assumed levels of omicron severity (in both unvaxxed and vaxxed). Until we actually have hard real world data on severity it all however remains unknown.
Most of the modelling ultimately amounts to “increased transmissibility means severity has to be significantly lower”. But how that plays out we don’t know. And given we are letting it largely sweep through the population now anyway, it might well be that for many the vaccines become a bit of an irrelevance.
The optics of the Welsh and Scots... with their noses pressed up against the window pane....watching the English party on.....Ooh-er...
Is Drakeford closing the bridges?
Not this time and he can stuff it.
I'm off to Bournemouth on Thursday to watch the football in a sold-out away end before heading back to Cardiff.
I'm told Drakeford will be reviewing restrictions on the 10th Jan relating to sport. Let's see which way he jumps, as he's truly out on a limb now. The cynic in me says that the behind closed doors ludicrousness will be lifted before the 6 Nations and the world's biggest pub is opened in the heart of the Welsh capital.
While there has been some divergence between England and Wales before, not to this extent.
And both he and Sturgeon will hold out their begging bowls for HMG financial support and time for the answer to come back - no
Sturgeon will use the 'no' to ramp up the indi cause. both MD and NS put in the restrictions to try and make BJ's life more difficult rather than because they were all needed.
You might think that restrictions are unnecessary, but if you think either of them are making such decisions in order to make life difficult for Boris Johnson, then you're a couple of jabs short of a vaccination.
They've consistently gone further and restricted longer specifically to differentiate from the Tories. I suspect that NS would've done the same to a Labour PM too.
Look, I posted the study, if you disagree with the study that is fine but there are clearly concerns around immunity waning and a reduction in immunity will result in a lot more people in hospital.
Let's hope the T-cells help to workaround such a problem but I will continue to raise concerns rather than just "everything is fine"
There is a real collision between the media, the Scots and Welsh governments and many scientists who seem to focus solely on infections v HMG who are considering hospital admissions and deaths as the key factor in restricting the economy further
At 4.00pm Sky announced todays figures and then produced some former medical director saying the infection rate demand further public health measures and we will not be safe until the world is vaccinated
On Wednesday Sturgeon recalls Holyrood again to affirm record infections trying to justify her actions and in the meantime HMG has announced no new restrictions this year and unlike Scotland and Wales, people in England will have less restrictions and Scotland and Wales football clubs can only look on with envy at the Premier crowds
I am very frustrated with the media and the left, as they have been captured by the desire to control all aspects of people's lives with an infection that while very infectious, does not seem to be much more than a bad cold
It is interesting that Starmer remains silent but also that Burnham and Blair are on the same page as HMG
As I said earlier, it's tricky (not least because of the effect on the economy of staff absences with infection rampant) and I won't blame the UK government for going either way. But the same applies to the Sottish and Welsh governments. They're being more cautious, which does reflect the majority of public opinion throughout the pandemic. Would it be safe to relax now? Dunno (nor do any of us), and we should be cautious about making a political point out of it either way.
In any case, I definitely disagree (from numerous personal contacts who i've talked to over Xmas) that it's no more than a bad cold - sometimes it is, and sometimes it's much worse. We just don't have a clear picture yet.
Who the bloody hell is Adam Brooks? I mean, I welcome it too, but that isn't headline news. Someone I had heard of saying it was the most moronic decision in the whole history of politics might be.
He has 221 000 twitter followers and is one of the leading figures opposing restrictions and a pub owner.
I expect the Tories to get something of a Boris bounce after the PM ruled out further restrictions today, especially in England and any voters who have gone RefUK or DK will start to move back into the Tory column
The optics of the Welsh and Scots... with their noses pressed up against the window pane....watching the English party on.....Ooh-er...
Is Drakeford closing the bridges?
Not this time and he can stuff it.
I'm off to Bournemouth on Thursday to watch the football in a sold-out away end before heading back to Cardiff.
I'm told Drakeford will be reviewing restrictions on the 10th Jan relating to sport. Let's see which way he jumps, as he's truly out on a limb now. The cynic in me says that the behind closed doors ludicrousness will be lifted before the 6 Nations and the world's biggest pub is opened in the heart of the Welsh capital.
While there has been some divergence between England and Wales before, not to this extent.
And both he and Sturgeon will hold out their begging bowls for HMG financial support and time for the answer to come back - no
Sturgeon will use the 'no' to ramp up the indi cause. both MD and NS put in the restrictions to try and make BJ's life more difficult rather than because they were all needed.
You might think that restrictions are unnecessary, but if you think either of them are making such decisions in order to make life difficult for Boris Johnson, then you're a couple of jabs short of a vaccination.
They've consistently gone further and restricted longer specifically to differentiate from the Tories. I suspect that NS would've done the same to a Labour PM too.
How does that work when 'they've' announced restrictions while BJ & co have vacillated and prevaricated?
The researchers also find that this reduction in neutralising antibodies could impact vaccine efficacy against severe disease. In a worst-case scenario where the decay rate after a booster dose is the same as that observed after the first 2 doses, the study predicts that vaccine efficacy against severe disease (hospitalisation) may drop from 96.5% (95% CrI 96.1%–96.8%) against Delta to 80.1% (76.3%–83.02) against Omicron by 60 days after the primary vaccine course followed by a booster of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine if antibodies decay at the same rate following the booster as observed following the primary vaccine course. If this rate of decay is half that rate, the drop is estimated to be from 97.6% (95% CrI 97.4%-97.9%) against Delta to 85.9% (95% CrI 83.1%-88.3%) against Omicron. However, this could be further moderated by the increased longevity of T cell-mediated immunity.
The optics of the Welsh and Scots... with their noses pressed up against the window pane....watching the English party on.....Ooh-er...
Is Drakeford closing the bridges?
Not this time and he can stuff it.
I'm off to Bournemouth on Thursday to watch the football in a sold-out away end before heading back to Cardiff.
I'm told Drakeford will be reviewing restrictions on the 10th Jan relating to sport. Let's see which way he jumps, as he's truly out on a limb now. The cynic in me says that the behind closed doors ludicrousness will be lifted before the 6 Nations and the world's biggest pub is opened in the heart of the Welsh capital.
While there has been some divergence between England and Wales before, not to this extent.
And both he and Sturgeon will hold out their begging bowls for HMG financial support and time for the answer to come back - no
Sturgeon will use the 'no' to ramp up the indi cause. both MD and NS put in the restrictions to try and make BJ's life more difficult rather than because they were all needed.
You might think that restrictions are unnecessary, but if you think either of them are making such decisions in order to make life difficult for Boris Johnson, then you're a couple of jabs short of a vaccination.
They've consistently gone further and restricted longer specifically to differentiate from the Tories. I suspect that NS would've done the same to a Labour PM too.
A Labour PM would have been just as restrictive as Sturgeon, remember Drakeford is Labour too
The researchers also find that this reduction in neutralising antibodies could impact vaccine efficacy against severe disease. In a worst-case scenario where the decay rate after a booster dose is the same as that observed after the first 2 doses, the study predicts that vaccine efficacy against severe disease (hospitalisation) may drop from 96.5% (95% CrI 96.1%–96.8%) against Delta to 80.1% (76.3%–83.02) against Omicron by 60 days after the primary vaccine course followed by a booster of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine if antibodies decay at the same rate following the booster as observed following the primary vaccine course. If this rate of decay is half that rate, the drop is estimated to be from 97.6% (95% CrI 97.4%-97.9%) against Delta to 85.9% (95% CrI 83.1%-88.3%) against Omicron. However, this could be further moderated by the increased longevity of T cell-mediated immunity.
The optics of the Welsh and Scots... with their noses pressed up against the window pane....watching the English party on.....Ooh-er...
Is Drakeford closing the bridges?
Not this time and he can stuff it.
I'm off to Bournemouth on Thursday to watch the football in a sold-out away end before heading back to Cardiff.
I'm told Drakeford will be reviewing restrictions on the 10th Jan relating to sport. Let's see which way he jumps, as he's truly out on a limb now. The cynic in me says that the behind closed doors ludicrousness will be lifted before the 6 Nations and the world's biggest pub is opened in the heart of the Welsh capital.
While there has been some divergence between England and Wales before, not to this extent.
And both he and Sturgeon will hold out their begging bowls for HMG financial support and time for the answer to come back - no
Drakeford will be hung out to dry on this news. This is politically astute from Johnson,, he has done himself a power of good.
(But don't forget BigG. Johnson has gone against scientific advice that he should take action now to relieve pressure on the NHS over the next weeks, simply to save his own skin).
The researchers also find that this reduction in neutralising antibodies could impact vaccine efficacy against severe disease. In a worst-case scenario where the decay rate after a booster dose is the same as that observed after the first 2 doses, the study predicts that vaccine efficacy against severe disease (hospitalisation) may drop from 96.5% (95% CrI 96.1%–96.8%) against Delta to 80.1% (76.3%–83.02) against Omicron by 60 days after the primary vaccine course followed by a booster of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine if antibodies decay at the same rate following the booster as observed following the primary vaccine course. If this rate of decay is half that rate, the drop is estimated to be from 97.6% (95% CrI 97.4%-97.9%) against Delta to 85.9% (95% CrI 83.1%-88.3%) against Omicron. However, this could be further moderated by the increased longevity of T cell-mediated immunity.
Then why the caveat about the T-cell stuff, surely that should be included in such a model?
I think this comes back to the problem with measuring the immune system - the antibodies are relatively simple chemistry. For the full immune system - well, it's quite hard to a stuff a whole person in a test tube.....
The optics of the Welsh and Scots... with their noses pressed up against the window pane....watching the English party on.....Ooh-er...
Is Drakeford closing the bridges?
Not this time and he can stuff it.
I'm off to Bournemouth on Thursday to watch the football in a sold-out away end before heading back to Cardiff.
I'm told Drakeford will be reviewing restrictions on the 10th Jan relating to sport. Let's see which way he jumps, as he's truly out on a limb now. The cynic in me says that the behind closed doors ludicrousness will be lifted before the 6 Nations and the world's biggest pub is opened in the heart of the Welsh capital.
While there has been some divergence between England and Wales before, not to this extent.
And both he and Sturgeon will hold out their begging bowls for HMG financial support and time for the answer to come back - no
Sturgeon will use the 'no' to ramp up the indi cause. both MD and NS put in the restrictions to try and make BJ's life more difficult rather than because they were all needed.
You might think that restrictions are unnecessary, but if you think either of them are making such decisions in order to make life difficult for Boris Johnson, then you're a couple of jabs short of a vaccination.
They've consistently gone further and restricted longer specifically to differentiate from the Tories. I suspect that NS would've done the same to a Labour PM too.
A Labour PM would have been just as restrictive as Sturgeon, remember Drakeford is Labour too
The difference between being FM and being PM is that you have to properly balance the economy and public health as PM but both FMs have been able to be seen to 'do more' but then expect more money from the government. a Labour PM would still have much more pressure to manage the whole economy than MD or NS ever will as FM
The researchers also find that this reduction in neutralising antibodies could impact vaccine efficacy against severe disease. In a worst-case scenario where the decay rate after a booster dose is the same as that observed after the first 2 doses, the study predicts that vaccine efficacy against severe disease (hospitalisation) may drop from 96.5% (95% CrI 96.1%–96.8%) against Delta to 80.1% (76.3%–83.02) against Omicron by 60 days after the primary vaccine course followed by a booster of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine if antibodies decay at the same rate following the booster as observed following the primary vaccine course. If this rate of decay is half that rate, the drop is estimated to be from 97.6% (95% CrI 97.4%-97.9%) against Delta to 85.9% (95% CrI 83.1%-88.3%) against Omicron. However, this could be further moderated by the increased longevity of T cell-mediated immunity.
Who the bloody hell is Adam Brooks? I mean, I welcome it too, but that isn't headline news. Someone I had heard of saying it was the most moronic decision in the whole history of politics might be.
He has 221 000 twitter followers and is one of the leading figures opposing restrictions and a pub owner.
I expect the Tories to get something of a Boris bounce after the PM ruled out further restrictions today, especially in England and any voters who have gone RefUK or DK will start to move back into the Tory column
I expect tomorrow's mail, express, telegraph and sun will be writing very positive columns about the decision tomorrow
The whole business about whether the U.K. Govt should offer assistance to businesses impacted by non aligned Covid restrictions in the devolved nations is a tricky one. The obvious answer is “no they’ve made their beds”. But step away from the politics of it and isn’t it the case that the consequences of business failure in Scotland/Wales fall on the U.K. taxpayer? So there may be a case for offering assistance regardless.
The politics of it are a completely different matter.
The Royal parasites should fund their own yacht, we shouldn't spend this money on the country's largest benefit scroungers, but use the money to look after our children.
England could fit an air purifier to every classroom for half the price of the new royal yacht, a move which scientists and campaigners say would significantly reduce the spread of Covid in schools.
The move would cost about £140m, according to calculations by the Liberal Democrats. Government sources have said there will be no delay to the start of the school term, despite surging Omicron cases, and that any additional restrictions will not include classroom closures.
The optics of the Welsh and Scots... with their noses pressed up against the window pane....watching the English party on.....Ooh-er...
Is Drakeford closing the bridges?
Not this time and he can stuff it.
I'm off to Bournemouth on Thursday to watch the football in a sold-out away end before heading back to Cardiff.
I'm told Drakeford will be reviewing restrictions on the 10th Jan relating to sport. Let's see which way he jumps, as he's truly out on a limb now. The cynic in me says that the behind closed doors ludicrousness will be lifted before the 6 Nations and the world's biggest pub is opened in the heart of the Welsh capital.
While there has been some divergence between England and Wales before, not to this extent.
And both he and Sturgeon will hold out their begging bowls for HMG financial support and time for the answer to come back - no
Sturgeon will use the 'no' to ramp up the indi cause. both MD and NS put in the restrictions to try and make BJ's life more difficult rather than because they were all needed.
You might think that restrictions are unnecessary, but if you think either of them are making such decisions in order to make life difficult for Boris Johnson, then you're a couple of jabs short of a vaccination.
They've consistently gone further and restricted longer specifically to differentiate from the Tories. I suspect that NS would've done the same to a Labour PM too.
A Labour PM would have been just as restrictive as Sturgeon, remember Drakeford is Labour too
Corbyn might have done almost anything. He'd certainly have nationalised the railways and the power companies. I think almost zero money to Wales/Scotland.
The researchers also find that this reduction in neutralising antibodies could impact vaccine efficacy against severe disease. In a worst-case scenario where the decay rate after a booster dose is the same as that observed after the first 2 doses, the study predicts that vaccine efficacy against severe disease (hospitalisation) may drop from 96.5% (95% CrI 96.1%–96.8%) against Delta to 80.1% (76.3%–83.02) against Omicron by 60 days after the primary vaccine course followed by a booster of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine if antibodies decay at the same rate following the booster as observed following the primary vaccine course. If this rate of decay is half that rate, the drop is estimated to be from 97.6% (95% CrI 97.4%-97.9%) against Delta to 85.9% (95% CrI 83.1%-88.3%) against Omicron. However, this could be further moderated by the increased longevity of T cell-mediated immunity.
Then why the caveat about the T-cell stuff, surely that should be included in such a model?
As I said, there is an awful lot of wishful thinking here on the basis of "T-cells" being the answer. I am not convinced without further evidence
Remember that we also had some concerns about the waning of vaccines for Delta at the start of the booster campaign, but there wasn't any corresponding increase in hospitilisations or deaths amongst the most at risk groups.
The researchers also find that this reduction in neutralising antibodies could impact vaccine efficacy against severe disease. In a worst-case scenario where the decay rate after a booster dose is the same as that observed after the first 2 doses, the study predicts that vaccine efficacy against severe disease (hospitalisation) may drop from 96.5% (95% CrI 96.1%–96.8%) against Delta to 80.1% (76.3%–83.02) against Omicron by 60 days after the primary vaccine course followed by a booster of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine if antibodies decay at the same rate following the booster as observed following the primary vaccine course. If this rate of decay is half that rate, the drop is estimated to be from 97.6% (95% CrI 97.4%-97.9%) against Delta to 85.9% (95% CrI 83.1%-88.3%) against Omicron. However, this could be further moderated by the increased longevity of T cell-mediated immunity.
Then why the caveat about the T-cell stuff, surely that should be included in such a model?
As I said, there is an awful lot of wishful thinking here on the basis of "T-cells" being the answer. I am not convinced without further evidence
Remember that we also had some concerns about the waning of vaccines for Delta at the start of the booster campaign, but there wasn't any corresponding increase in hospitilisations or deaths amongst the most at risk groups.
Because immunity hasn't waned yet to a sufficient degree, we've implemented boosters.
The optics of the Welsh and Scots... with their noses pressed up against the window pane....watching the English party on.....Ooh-er...
Is Drakeford closing the bridges?
Not this time and he can stuff it.
I'm off to Bournemouth on Thursday to watch the football in a sold-out away end before heading back to Cardiff.
I'm told Drakeford will be reviewing restrictions on the 10th Jan relating to sport. Let's see which way he jumps, as he's truly out on a limb now. The cynic in me says that the behind closed doors ludicrousness will be lifted before the 6 Nations and the world's biggest pub is opened in the heart of the Welsh capital.
While there has been some divergence between England and Wales before, not to this extent.
And both he and Sturgeon will hold out their begging bowls for HMG financial support and time for the answer to come back - no
Drakeford will be hung out to dry on this news. This is politically astute from Johnson,, he has done himself a power of good.
(But don't forget BigG. Johnson has gone against scientific advice that he should take action now to relieve pressure on the NHS over the next weeks, simply to save his own skin).
I would qualify that by saying it is his cabinet who are in control now
The researchers also find that this reduction in neutralising antibodies could impact vaccine efficacy against severe disease. In a worst-case scenario where the decay rate after a booster dose is the same as that observed after the first 2 doses, the study predicts that vaccine efficacy against severe disease (hospitalisation) may drop from 96.5% (95% CrI 96.1%–96.8%) against Delta to 80.1% (76.3%–83.02) against Omicron by 60 days after the primary vaccine course followed by a booster of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine if antibodies decay at the same rate following the booster as observed following the primary vaccine course. If this rate of decay is half that rate, the drop is estimated to be from 97.6% (95% CrI 97.4%-97.9%) against Delta to 85.9% (95% CrI 83.1%-88.3%) against Omicron. However, this could be further moderated by the increased longevity of T cell-mediated immunity.
Then why the caveat about the T-cell stuff, surely that should be included in such a model?
As I said, there is an awful lot of wishful thinking here on the basis of "T-cells" being the answer. I am not convinced without further evidence
Evidence specific to Covid, or evidence from experts on how the human body generally acts in concert with the immune system to combat viruses.
And fair enough - your position is not that you reject it but you want more evidence. The question that every is debating is how far caution should be prioritised (when it comes at a cost) is the face of uncertainty.
The optics of the Welsh and Scots... with their noses pressed up against the window pane....watching the English party on.....Ooh-er...
Scotland and Wales are traditionally the most puritanical parts of the UK so maybe they won't mind that much.
Clearly you've never been to Northern Ireland, purantical is the middle name of the vast majority there.
The curse of using a 10 year old laptop which is incredibly slow to do anything.
I edited my post from UK to Britain is fast as possible (which is what I meant to write) but you managed to respond beforehand. I have been to Northern Ireland, in 2018.
The researchers also find that this reduction in neutralising antibodies could impact vaccine efficacy against severe disease. In a worst-case scenario where the decay rate after a booster dose is the same as that observed after the first 2 doses, the study predicts that vaccine efficacy against severe disease (hospitalisation) may drop from 96.5% (95% CrI 96.1%–96.8%) against Delta to 80.1% (76.3%–83.02) against Omicron by 60 days after the primary vaccine course followed by a booster of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine if antibodies decay at the same rate following the booster as observed following the primary vaccine course. If this rate of decay is half that rate, the drop is estimated to be from 97.6% (95% CrI 97.4%-97.9%) against Delta to 85.9% (95% CrI 83.1%-88.3%) against Omicron. However, this could be further moderated by the increased longevity of T cell-mediated immunity.
The Royal parasites should fund their own yacht, we shouldn't spend this money on the country's largest benefit scroungers, but use the money to look after our children.
England could fit an air purifier to every classroom for half the price of the new royal yacht, a move which scientists and campaigners say would significantly reduce the spread of Covid in schools.
The move would cost about £140m, according to calculations by the Liberal Democrats. Government sources have said there will be no delay to the start of the school term, despite surging Omicron cases, and that any additional restrictions will not include classroom closures.
The Royal parasites should fund their own yacht, we shouldn't spend this money on the country's largest benefit scroungers, but use the money to look after our children.
England could fit an air purifier to every classroom for half the price of the new royal yacht, a move which scientists and campaigners say would significantly reduce the spread of Covid in schools.
The move would cost about £140m, according to calculations by the Liberal Democrats. Government sources have said there will be no delay to the start of the school term, despite surging Omicron cases, and that any additional restrictions will not include classroom closures.
The whole business about whether the U.K. Govt should offer assistance to businesses impacted by non aligned Covid restrictions in the devolved nations is a tricky one. The obvious answer is “no they’ve made their beds”. But step away from the politics of it and isn’t it the case that the consequences of business failure in Scotland/Wales fall on the U.K. taxpayer? So there may be a case for offering assistance regardless.
The politics of it are a completely different matter.
There is no doubt Drakeford would have closed hospitality completely if there was UK govt support available in the same way he's f**ked over rugby and football clubs. The fact that he won't be able to now is good news, although stupid covid theatre remains in place.
A fairly substantial in Welsh Govt terms support package has been announced for hospitality businesses which the executive said allowed them to support those businesses through to February. No doubt its not anywhere near enough.
And the package to support professional sports teams who have to play behind closed doors was derisory.
The whole raft of restrictions announced last week were contradictory, stupid and pointless. Some are downright offensive, like the fine for individual employees who fail to work from home (not that it will ever be enforced).
Drakeford hasn't had a bad pandemic but he's out on a limb here and winding up a lot of different groups of people.
Who the bloody hell is Adam Brooks? I mean, I welcome it too, but that isn't headline news. Someone I had heard of saying it was the most moronic decision in the whole history of politics might be.
He has 221 000 twitter followers and is one of the leading figures opposing restrictions and a pub owner.
I expect the Tories to get something of a Boris bounce after the PM ruled out further restrictions today, especially in England and any voters who have gone RefUK or DK will start to move back into the Tory column
I expect tomorrow's mail, express, telegraph and sun will be writing very positive columns about the decision tomorrow
He then has to hope his gamble pays off.
If the NHS falls over in three weeks time they will be kicking him again.
The researchers also find that this reduction in neutralising antibodies could impact vaccine efficacy against severe disease. In a worst-case scenario where the decay rate after a booster dose is the same as that observed after the first 2 doses, the study predicts that vaccine efficacy against severe disease (hospitalisation) may drop from 96.5% (95% CrI 96.1%–96.8%) against Delta to 80.1% (76.3%–83.02) against Omicron by 60 days after the primary vaccine course followed by a booster of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine if antibodies decay at the same rate following the booster as observed following the primary vaccine course. If this rate of decay is half that rate, the drop is estimated to be from 97.6% (95% CrI 97.4%-97.9%) against Delta to 85.9% (95% CrI 83.1%-88.3%) against Omicron. However, this could be further moderated by the increased longevity of T cell-mediated immunity.
When they talk about vaccine efficacy what they mean is antibody count, right?
Yes. Something which declines over time after any infection or vaccine administration. Your immune system wouldn’t be much use against other infections if it maintained a high level of circulating antibodies against a single infection permanently.
It has a memory function, though, which means it reacts more quickly in chucking out new antibodies against an infection it has seen before: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memory_B_cell
The researchers also find that this reduction in neutralising antibodies could impact vaccine efficacy against severe disease. In a worst-case scenario where the decay rate after a booster dose is the same as that observed after the first 2 doses, the study predicts that vaccine efficacy against severe disease (hospitalisation) may drop from 96.5% (95% CrI 96.1%–96.8%) against Delta to 80.1% (76.3%–83.02) against Omicron by 60 days after the primary vaccine course followed by a booster of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine if antibodies decay at the same rate following the booster as observed following the primary vaccine course. If this rate of decay is half that rate, the drop is estimated to be from 97.6% (95% CrI 97.4%-97.9%) against Delta to 85.9% (95% CrI 83.1%-88.3%) against Omicron. However, this could be further moderated by the increased longevity of T cell-mediated immunity.
Then why the caveat about the T-cell stuff, surely that should be included in such a model?
As I said, there is an awful lot of wishful thinking here on the basis of "T-cells" being the answer. I am not convinced without further evidence
I can assure you that I studied these so-called "T-cells" for Biology GCSE, and they seem legit to me.
Honestly, you're talking about them like they're cold fusion or something. This is basic stuff the human race has known about for decades. The only reason we can't prove we'll be fine is that not enough time has passed to study the effects properly.
Who the bloody hell is Adam Brooks? I mean, I welcome it too, but that isn't headline news. Someone I had heard of saying it was the most moronic decision in the whole history of politics might be.
He has 221 000 twitter followers and is one of the leading figures opposing restrictions and a pub owner.
I expect the Tories to get something of a Boris bounce after the PM ruled out further restrictions today, especially in England and any voters who have gone RefUK or DK will start to move back into the Tory column
I expect tomorrow's mail, express, telegraph and sun will be writing very positive columns about the decision tomorrow
Trouble is I’m really not sure that this is the response that the Govt really wants. I suspect they really want the story to focus on the extent to which their is still a threat, they still urge the public to exercise caution, but that they do not what to attempt to legally impose it.
I think such a position has far greater chance of taking the worried public with the than the stereotypical “Boris says party on with confidence” stuff. Which just lead people to conclude that he’s gambling with lives.
The Royal parasites should fund their own yacht, we shouldn't spend this money on the country's largest benefit scroungers, but use the money to look after our children.
England could fit an air purifier to every classroom for half the price of the new royal yacht, a move which scientists and campaigners say would significantly reduce the spread of Covid in schools.
The move would cost about £140m, according to calculations by the Liberal Democrats. Government sources have said there will be no delay to the start of the school term, despite surging Omicron cases, and that any additional restrictions will not include classroom closures.
The Royal parasites should fund their own yacht, we shouldn't spend this money on the country's largest benefit scroungers, but use the money to look after our children.
England could fit an air purifier to every classroom for half the price of the new royal yacht, a move which scientists and campaigners say would significantly reduce the spread of Covid in schools.
The move would cost about £140m, according to calculations by the Liberal Democrats. Government sources have said there will be no delay to the start of the school term, despite surging Omicron cases, and that any additional restrictions will not include classroom closures.
The researchers also find that this reduction in neutralising antibodies could impact vaccine efficacy against severe disease. In a worst-case scenario where the decay rate after a booster dose is the same as that observed after the first 2 doses, the study predicts that vaccine efficacy against severe disease (hospitalisation) may drop from 96.5% (95% CrI 96.1%–96.8%) against Delta to 80.1% (76.3%–83.02) against Omicron by 60 days after the primary vaccine course followed by a booster of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine if antibodies decay at the same rate following the booster as observed following the primary vaccine course. If this rate of decay is half that rate, the drop is estimated to be from 97.6% (95% CrI 97.4%-97.9%) against Delta to 85.9% (95% CrI 83.1%-88.3%) against Omicron. However, this could be further moderated by the increased longevity of T cell-mediated immunity.
Then why the caveat about the T-cell stuff, surely that should be included in such a model?
As I said, there is an awful lot of wishful thinking here on the basis of "T-cells" being the answer. I am not convinced without further evidence
I can assure you that I studied these so-called "T-cells" for Biology GCSE, and they seem legit to me.
Honestly, you're talking about them like they're cold fusion or something. This is basic stuff the human race has known about for decades. The only reason we can't prove we'll be fine is that not enough time has passed to study the effects properly.
When we've seen the studies that prove that T-cells will be enough to undo any concerns of waning immunity, then we can discuss it then. Until then, I am going to be cautious as Imperial are
Who the bloody hell is Adam Brooks? I mean, I welcome it too, but that isn't headline news. Someone I had heard of saying it was the most moronic decision in the whole history of politics might be.
He has 221 000 twitter followers and is one of the leading figures opposing restrictions and a pub owner.
I expect the Tories to get something of a Boris bounce after the PM ruled out further restrictions today, especially in England and any voters who have gone RefUK or DK will start to move back into the Tory column
I expect tomorrow's mail, express, telegraph and sun will be writing very positive columns about the decision tomorrow
He then has to hope his gamble pays off.
If the NHS falls over in three weeks time they will be kicking him again.
I have just said to my dear lady if this decision is correct then it will have huge implications for the devolved administration
The researchers also find that this reduction in neutralising antibodies could impact vaccine efficacy against severe disease. In a worst-case scenario where the decay rate after a booster dose is the same as that observed after the first 2 doses, the study predicts that vaccine efficacy against severe disease (hospitalisation) may drop from 96.5% (95% CrI 96.1%–96.8%) against Delta to 80.1% (76.3%–83.02) against Omicron by 60 days after the primary vaccine course followed by a booster of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine if antibodies decay at the same rate following the booster as observed following the primary vaccine course. If this rate of decay is half that rate, the drop is estimated to be from 97.6% (95% CrI 97.4%-97.9%) against Delta to 85.9% (95% CrI 83.1%-88.3%) against Omicron. However, this could be further moderated by the increased longevity of T cell-mediated immunity.
Then why the caveat about the T-cell stuff, surely that should be included in such a model?
As I said, there is an awful lot of wishful thinking here on the basis of "T-cells" being the answer. I am not convinced without further evidence
I can assure you that I studied these so-called "T-cells" for Biology GCSE, and they seem legit to me.
Honestly, you're talking about them like they're cold fusion or something. This is basic stuff the human race has known about for decades. The only reason we can't prove we'll be fine is that not enough time has passed to study the effects properly.
When we've seen the studies that prove that T-cells will be enough to undo any concerns of waning immunity, then we can discuss it then. Until then, I am going to be cautious as Imperial are
It would be interesting to look more closely into the data on Delta. There were similar concerns for waning immunity there, but did that result in an uptick in illness for those most at risk groups that were vaccinated the earliest?
The Royal parasites should fund their own yacht, we shouldn't spend this money on the country's largest benefit scroungers, but use the money to look after our children.
England could fit an air purifier to every classroom for half the price of the new royal yacht, a move which scientists and campaigners say would significantly reduce the spread of Covid in schools.
The move would cost about £140m, according to calculations by the Liberal Democrats. Government sources have said there will be no delay to the start of the school term, despite surging Omicron cases, and that any additional restrictions will not include classroom closures.
Well, given that HEPA filters are specifically designed to stop some virus sized particles, the idea that they might stop virus sized particles isn't that much of stretch.....
The Royal parasites should fund their own yacht, we shouldn't spend this money on the country's largest benefit scroungers, but use the money to look after our children.
England could fit an air purifier to every classroom for half the price of the new royal yacht, a move which scientists and campaigners say would significantly reduce the spread of Covid in schools.
The move would cost about £140m, according to calculations by the Liberal Democrats. Government sources have said there will be no delay to the start of the school term, despite surging Omicron cases, and that any additional restrictions will not include classroom closures.
Well, given that HEPA filters are specifically designed to stop some virus sized particles, the idea that they might stop virus sized particles isn't that much of stretch.....
The Royal parasites should fund their own yacht, we shouldn't spend this money on the country's largest benefit scroungers, but use the money to look after our children.
England could fit an air purifier to every classroom for half the price of the new royal yacht, a move which scientists and campaigners say would significantly reduce the spread of Covid in schools.
The move would cost about £140m, according to calculations by the Liberal Democrats. Government sources have said there will be no delay to the start of the school term, despite surging Omicron cases, and that any additional restrictions will not include classroom closures.
One of the theories put forwards to explain Japan’s position as an outlier with a continuing relatively low number of cases is their greater attention to building ventilation. I doubt you could do every UK classroom effectively for that money, though.
The Royal parasites should fund their own yacht, we shouldn't spend this money on the country's largest benefit scroungers, but use the money to look after our children.
England could fit an air purifier to every classroom for half the price of the new royal yacht, a move which scientists and campaigners say would significantly reduce the spread of Covid in schools.
The move would cost about £140m, according to calculations by the Liberal Democrats. Government sources have said there will be no delay to the start of the school term, despite surging Omicron cases, and that any additional restrictions will not include classroom closures.
Well, given that HEPA filters are specifically designed to stop some virus sized particles, the idea that they might stop virus sized particles isn't that much of stretch.....
Anyone can get published in Nature these days.
I am going to write a paper on the theory that sunrise correlates with an increase in ambient light.....
The researchers also find that this reduction in neutralising antibodies could impact vaccine efficacy against severe disease. In a worst-case scenario where the decay rate after a booster dose is the same as that observed after the first 2 doses, the study predicts that vaccine efficacy against severe disease (hospitalisation) may drop from 96.5% (95% CrI 96.1%–96.8%) against Delta to 80.1% (76.3%–83.02) against Omicron by 60 days after the primary vaccine course followed by a booster of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine if antibodies decay at the same rate following the booster as observed following the primary vaccine course. If this rate of decay is half that rate, the drop is estimated to be from 97.6% (95% CrI 97.4%-97.9%) against Delta to 85.9% (95% CrI 83.1%-88.3%) against Omicron. However, this could be further moderated by the increased longevity of T cell-mediated immunity.
Then why the caveat about the T-cell stuff, surely that should be included in such a model?
As I said, there is an awful lot of wishful thinking here on the basis of "T-cells" being the answer. I am not convinced without further evidence
I can assure you that I studied these so-called "T-cells" for Biology GCSE, and they seem legit to me.
Honestly, you're talking about them like they're cold fusion or something. This is basic stuff the human race has known about for decades. The only reason we can't prove we'll be fine is that not enough time has passed to study the effects properly.
Which examing board had T-cells as part of the syllabus?
The optics of the Welsh and Scots... with their noses pressed up against the window pane....watching the English party on.....Ooh-er...
Is Drakeford closing the bridges?
Not this time and he can stuff it.
I'm off to Bournemouth on Thursday to watch the football in a sold-out away end before heading back to Cardiff.
I'm told Drakeford will be reviewing restrictions on the 10th Jan relating to sport. Let's see which way he jumps, as he's truly out on a limb now. The cynic in me says that the behind closed doors ludicrousness will be lifted before the 6 Nations and the world's biggest pub is opened in the heart of the Welsh capital.
While there has been some divergence between England and Wales before, not to this extent.
And both he and Sturgeon will hold out their begging bowls for HMG financial support and time for the answer to come back - no
Drakeford will be hung out to dry on this news. This is politically astute from Johnson,, he has done himself a power of good.
(But don't forget BigG. Johnson has gone against scientific advice that he should take action now to relieve pressure on the NHS over the next weeks, simply to save his own skin).
I would qualify that by saying it is his cabinet who are in control now
I am not sure control is the word I would use.
When we hear that Grant Shapps is the most hawkish in Cabinet followed by Liz Truss, and Mad Nad is a dove, we can guess those who think they are runners and riders, are all jockeying for position post Johnson.
Data looks good at the moment and that is a good sign.
But we must now ensure that we are prepared for a surge in hospitalisations if we allow immunity to wane
I’ve followed instructions to just swab nose not tonsils. Now experts saying box guidance wrong 🤯
It depends on the LFT type. Our old types required both tonsils and nostrils; the new ones just nostrils. It's important to read the instructions when you get a new pack, particularly if the packaging is different.
(Unless I'm missing a joke somewhere...)
Not a joke! Some experts saying nose alone isn’t picking covid up as well as tonsils. 😕
If we believe in science here as we do, then we need to assess the science at it exists. This clearly makes mention of waning immunity and the drop in immunity = more people in hospital.
Now I am happy to discuss that this may or may not be true - but to say so is to disagree with the studies, which people seem happy to cherry pick for other points of view.
The researchers also find that this reduction in neutralising antibodies could impact vaccine efficacy against severe disease. In a worst-case scenario where the decay rate after a booster dose is the same as that observed after the first 2 doses, the study predicts that vaccine efficacy against severe disease (hospitalisation) may drop from 96.5% (95% CrI 96.1%–96.8%) against Delta to 80.1% (76.3%–83.02) against Omicron by 60 days after the primary vaccine course followed by a booster of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine if antibodies decay at the same rate following the booster as observed following the primary vaccine course. If this rate of decay is half that rate, the drop is estimated to be from 97.6% (95% CrI 97.4%-97.9%) against Delta to 85.9% (95% CrI 83.1%-88.3%) against Omicron. However, this could be further moderated by the increased longevity of T cell-mediated immunity.
Then why the caveat about the T-cell stuff, surely that should be included in such a model?
As I said, there is an awful lot of wishful thinking here on the basis of "T-cells" being the answer. I am not convinced without further evidence
I can assure you that I studied these so-called "T-cells" for Biology GCSE, and they seem legit to me.
Honestly, you're talking about them like they're cold fusion or something. This is basic stuff the human race has known about for decades. The only reason we can't prove we'll be fine is that not enough time has passed to study the effects properly.
Which examing board had T-cells as part of the syllabus?
I have no idea if it was on the syllabus, but my text book was kind of old, and I just read the whole thing.
The researchers also find that this reduction in neutralising antibodies could impact vaccine efficacy against severe disease. In a worst-case scenario where the decay rate after a booster dose is the same as that observed after the first 2 doses, the study predicts that vaccine efficacy against severe disease (hospitalisation) may drop from 96.5% (95% CrI 96.1%–96.8%) against Delta to 80.1% (76.3%–83.02) against Omicron by 60 days after the primary vaccine course followed by a booster of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine if antibodies decay at the same rate following the booster as observed following the primary vaccine course. If this rate of decay is half that rate, the drop is estimated to be from 97.6% (95% CrI 97.4%-97.9%) against Delta to 85.9% (95% CrI 83.1%-88.3%) against Omicron. However, this could be further moderated by the increased longevity of T cell-mediated immunity.
Then why the caveat about the T-cell stuff, surely that should be included in such a model?
As I said, there is an awful lot of wishful thinking here on the basis of "T-cells" being the answer. I am not convinced without further evidence
I can assure you that I studied these so-called "T-cells" for Biology GCSE, and they seem legit to me.
Honestly, you're talking about them like they're cold fusion or something. This is basic stuff the human race has known about for decades. The only reason we can't prove we'll be fine is that not enough time has passed to study the effects properly.
Which examing board had T-cells as part of the syllabus?
If we believe in science here as we do, then we need to assess the science at it exists. This clearly makes mention of waning immunity and the drop in immunity = more people in hospital.
Now I am happy to discuss that this may or may not be true - but to say so is to disagree with the studies, which people seem happy to cherry pick for other points of view.
With that rather large caveat at the end. So that equals sign you've used there is in doubt. Why can't we look at what happened with deceasing antibody levels prior to the booster campaign and omicron? There wasn't any corresponding increase in hospitalisations/deaths in the at risk groups.
The Royal parasites should fund their own yacht, we shouldn't spend this money on the country's largest benefit scroungers, but use the money to look after our children.
England could fit an air purifier to every classroom for half the price of the new royal yacht, a move which scientists and campaigners say would significantly reduce the spread of Covid in schools.
The move would cost about £140m, according to calculations by the Liberal Democrats. Government sources have said there will be no delay to the start of the school term, despite surging Omicron cases, and that any additional restrictions will not include classroom closures.
The Government have funded the new Royal Yacht as a great tool to sell global Britain post Brexit and sign new trade deals and attract trade across the globe.
The Royal parasites should fund their own yacht, we shouldn't spend this money on the country's largest benefit scroungers, but use the money to look after our children.
England could fit an air purifier to every classroom for half the price of the new royal yacht, a move which scientists and campaigners say would significantly reduce the spread of Covid in schools.
The move would cost about £140m, according to calculations by the Liberal Democrats. Government sources have said there will be no delay to the start of the school term, despite surging Omicron cases, and that any additional restrictions will not include classroom closures.
The Government have funded the new Royal Yacht as a great tool to sell global Britain post Brexit and sign new trade deals and attract trade across the globe.
The optics of the Welsh and Scots... with their noses pressed up against the window pane....watching the English party on.....Ooh-er...
Is Drakeford closing the bridges?
Not this time and he can stuff it.
I'm off to Bournemouth on Thursday to watch the football in a sold-out away end before heading back to Cardiff.
I'm told Drakeford will be reviewing restrictions on the 10th Jan relating to sport. Let's see which way he jumps, as he's truly out on a limb now. The cynic in me says that the behind closed doors ludicrousness will be lifted before the 6 Nations and the world's biggest pub is opened in the heart of the Welsh capital.
While there has been some divergence between England and Wales before, not to this extent.
And both he and Sturgeon will hold out their begging bowls for HMG financial support and time for the answer to come back - no
Drakeford will be hung out to dry on this news. This is politically astute from Johnson,, he has done himself a power of good.
(But don't forget BigG. Johnson has gone against scientific advice that he should take action now to relieve pressure on the NHS over the next weeks, simply to save his own skin).
I would qualify that by saying it is his cabinet who are in control now
I am not sure control is the word I would use.
When we hear that Grant Shapps is the most hawkish in Cabinet followed by Liz Truss, and Mad Nad is a dove, we can guess those who think they are runners and riders, are all jockeying for position post Johnson.
Maybe but he is having to listen
Also I suspect Welsh border businesses, including night clubs, will be furious as their customers merely cross the border and spend their money in England, same in the Scottish Borders, Berwick will be delighted
The researchers also find that this reduction in neutralising antibodies could impact vaccine efficacy against severe disease. In a worst-case scenario where the decay rate after a booster dose is the same as that observed after the first 2 doses, the study predicts that vaccine efficacy against severe disease (hospitalisation) may drop from 96.5% (95% CrI 96.1%–96.8%) against Delta to 80.1% (76.3%–83.02) against Omicron by 60 days after the primary vaccine course followed by a booster of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine if antibodies decay at the same rate following the booster as observed following the primary vaccine course. If this rate of decay is half that rate, the drop is estimated to be from 97.6% (95% CrI 97.4%-97.9%) against Delta to 85.9% (95% CrI 83.1%-88.3%) against Omicron. However, this could be further moderated by the increased longevity of T cell-mediated immunity.
Then why the caveat about the T-cell stuff, surely that should be included in such a model?
As I said, there is an awful lot of wishful thinking here on the basis of "T-cells" being the answer. I am not convinced without further evidence
I can assure you that I studied these so-called "T-cells" for Biology GCSE, and they seem legit to me.
Honestly, you're talking about them like they're cold fusion or something. This is basic stuff the human race has known about for decades. The only reason we can't prove we'll be fine is that not enough time has passed to study the effects properly.
When we've seen the studies that prove that T-cells will be enough to undo any concerns of waning immunity, then we can discuss it then. Until then, I am going to be cautious as Imperial are
You can be as cautious as you like, but it would be nice if you could also be less repetitive in the meantime.
The whole business about whether the U.K. Govt should offer assistance to businesses impacted by non aligned Covid restrictions in the devolved nations is a tricky one. The obvious answer is “no they’ve made their beds”. But step away from the politics of it and isn’t it the case that the consequences of business failure in Scotland/Wales fall on the U.K. taxpayer? So there may be a case for offering assistance regardless.
The politics of it are a completely different matter.
I surprised that the Treasury hadn't set up an intra-UK emergency lending system for this.
The 1998 Scotland act allows the SG to borrow from HMG, but I'm not sure to what extent. Surely they could have amended that and volleyed this back at Sturgeon?
We already have higher taxes here in Scotland, so an obvious mechanism to pay back the "Marshall/Sunak plan".
The Royal parasites should fund their own yacht, we shouldn't spend this money on the country's largest benefit scroungers, but use the money to look after our children.
England could fit an air purifier to every classroom for half the price of the new royal yacht, a move which scientists and campaigners say would significantly reduce the spread of Covid in schools.
The move would cost about £140m, according to calculations by the Liberal Democrats. Government sources have said there will be no delay to the start of the school term, despite surging Omicron cases, and that any additional restrictions will not include classroom closures.
The Government have funded the new Royal Yacht as a great tool to sell global Britain post Brexit and sign new trade deals and attract trade across the globe.
The Royal family have not asked for it
What an utter load of drivel
Accurate drivel. I think that's the main motivation for doing so.
Who the bloody hell is Adam Brooks? I mean, I welcome it too, but that isn't headline news. Someone I had heard of saying it was the most moronic decision in the whole history of politics might be.
He has 221 000 twitter followers and is one of the leading figures opposing restrictions and a pub owner.
I expect the Tories to get something of a Boris bounce after the PM ruled out further restrictions today, especially in England and any voters who have gone RefUK or DK will start to move back into the Tory column
I expect tomorrow's mail, express, telegraph and sun will be writing very positive columns about the decision tomorrow
He then has to hope his gamble pays off.
If the NHS falls over in three weeks time they will be kicking him again.
I have just said to my dear lady if this decision is correct then it will have huge implications for the devolved administration
If it is wrong then Boris is toast
It depends if safety first lockdown is remembered as long and bitterly as a NHS crash due late action.
I think Boris has called it right. I think vaccination works.
I also think Boris toast snyway, the country thinks he is a liar and will never listen to him again. Tories need to choose new leader asap. Boris leading them over cliff, his policy’s are dangerous crap.
So why con home got Truss three opinion points up on Rishi 😦
The Royal parasites should fund their own yacht, we shouldn't spend this money on the country's largest benefit scroungers, but use the money to look after our children.
England could fit an air purifier to every classroom for half the price of the new royal yacht, a move which scientists and campaigners say would significantly reduce the spread of Covid in schools.
The move would cost about £140m, according to calculations by the Liberal Democrats. Government sources have said there will be no delay to the start of the school term, despite surging Omicron cases, and that any additional restrictions will not include classroom closures.
The Government have funded the new Royal Yacht as a great tool to sell global Britain post Brexit and sign new trade deals and attract trade across the globe.
The Royal parasites should fund their own yacht, we shouldn't spend this money on the country's largest benefit scroungers, but use the money to look after our children.
England could fit an air purifier to every classroom for half the price of the new royal yacht, a move which scientists and campaigners say would significantly reduce the spread of Covid in schools.
The move would cost about £140m, according to calculations by the Liberal Democrats. Government sources have said there will be no delay to the start of the school term, despite surging Omicron cases, and that any additional restrictions will not include classroom closures.
The Government have funded the new Royal Yacht as a great tool to sell global Britain post Brexit and sign new trade deals and attract trade across the globe.
The Royal family have not asked for it
What an utter load of drivel
Accurate drivel. I think that's the main motivation for doing so.
If Labour had done the same thing, you'd be one of the first to cry "waste of money"
Who the bloody hell is Adam Brooks? I mean, I welcome it too, but that isn't headline news. Someone I had heard of saying it was the most moronic decision in the whole history of politics might be.
He has 221 000 twitter followers and is one of the leading figures opposing restrictions and a pub owner.
I expect the Tories to get something of a Boris bounce after the PM ruled out further restrictions today, especially in England and any voters who have gone RefUK or DK will start to move back into the Tory column
I expect tomorrow's mail, express, telegraph and sun will be writing very positive columns about the decision tomorrow
He then has to hope his gamble pays off.
If the NHS falls over in three weeks time they will be kicking him again.
I have just said to my dear lady if this decision is correct then it will have huge implications for the devolved administration
If it is wrong then Boris is toast
It depends if safety first lockdown is remembered as long and bitterly as a NHS crash due late action.
I think Boris has called it right. I think vaccination works.
I also think Boris toast snyway, the country thinks he is a liar and will never listen to him again. Tories need to choose new leader asap. Boris leading them over cliff, his policy’s are dangerous crap.
So why con home got Truss three opinion points up on Rishi 😦
I largely agree but Conhome is not the arbiter on who takes over
I'm not weighing in on the debate but it's amusing how the people who are most keen typically to call for investment are those appalled at the idea of investing in a yacht to potentially get trade deals etc
While those who are typically least keen on investment in general suddenly find it to be a great idea.
The Royal parasites should fund their own yacht, we shouldn't spend this money on the country's largest benefit scroungers, but use the money to look after our children.
England could fit an air purifier to every classroom for half the price of the new royal yacht, a move which scientists and campaigners say would significantly reduce the spread of Covid in schools.
The move would cost about £140m, according to calculations by the Liberal Democrats. Government sources have said there will be no delay to the start of the school term, despite surging Omicron cases, and that any additional restrictions will not include classroom closures.
The Government have funded the new Royal Yacht as a great tool to sell global Britain post Brexit and sign new trade deals and attract trade across the globe.
The Royal family have not asked for it
What an utter load of drivel
Accurate drivel. I think that's the main motivation for doing so.
If Labour had done the same thing, you'd be one of the first to cry "waste of money"
Huh? I don't think I've ever opined on the subject before. I was merely saying that HYUFD's comment is accurate regarding the government's motivation.
The researchers also find that this reduction in neutralising antibodies could impact vaccine efficacy against severe disease. In a worst-case scenario where the decay rate after a booster dose is the same as that observed after the first 2 doses, the study predicts that vaccine efficacy against severe disease (hospitalisation) may drop from 96.5% (95% CrI 96.1%–96.8%) against Delta to 80.1% (76.3%–83.02) against Omicron by 60 days after the primary vaccine course followed by a booster of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine if antibodies decay at the same rate following the booster as observed following the primary vaccine course. If this rate of decay is half that rate, the drop is estimated to be from 97.6% (95% CrI 97.4%-97.9%) against Delta to 85.9% (95% CrI 83.1%-88.3%) against Omicron. However, this could be further moderated by the increased longevity of T cell-mediated immunity.
Then why the caveat about the T-cell stuff, surely that should be included in such a model?
As I said, there is an awful lot of wishful thinking here on the basis of "T-cells" being the answer. I am not convinced without further evidence
I think you simply do not understand the role of T-cells etc in the complexity of the immune response. You seem fixated on waning immunity, measured simply by the decline of nABs, and post a link/quote from a modelling paper which makes extensive use of ‘may’ to caveat unknowns.
The Royal parasites should fund their own yacht, we shouldn't spend this money on the country's largest benefit scroungers, but use the money to look after our children.
England could fit an air purifier to every classroom for half the price of the new royal yacht, a move which scientists and campaigners say would significantly reduce the spread of Covid in schools.
The move would cost about £140m, according to calculations by the Liberal Democrats. Government sources have said there will be no delay to the start of the school term, despite surging Omicron cases, and that any additional restrictions will not include classroom closures.
The Government have funded the new Royal Yacht as a great tool to sell global Britain post Brexit and sign new trade deals and attract trade across the globe.
The Royal family have not asked for it
What an utter load of drivel
I think Charles/William would be absolutely desperate to avoid this in the middle of a pandemic. Awful PR.
I view the Royals as rich people who have to spend their whole lives under the spotlight and do a series of incredibly boring and meaningless tasks.
If we go for a Republic, they'll remain rich and keep the nice bits (Sandringham/Balmoral etc) and have a sudden improvement in their work/life balance.
I'm not weighing in on the debate but it's amusing how the people who are most keen typically to call for investment are those appalled at the idea of investing in a yacht to potentially get trade deals etc
While those who are typically least keen on investment in general suddenly find it to be a great idea.
Provide evidence a yacht improves the chances of getting a trade deal.
I'm all for sensible investment that generates a return, your point is utterly absurd
If we believe in science here as we do, then we need to assess the science at it exists. This clearly makes mention of waning immunity and the drop in immunity = more people in hospital.
Now I am happy to discuss that this may or may not be true - but to say so is to disagree with the studies, which people seem happy to cherry pick for other points of view.
You keep saying this but are you sure you aren’t confusing “studies” with “models”. The models take assumption which may or may not be true and model the impacts based on those assumptions. Sometimes the assumptions are a wide range.
But fundamentally the assumptions contain elements like levels of “severity” for infected individuals, but don’t necessarily delve into the complexities which influence severity. So they might model “no T-cell protection” and arrive at bad outcomes. But the fact that they have modelled it says nothing about whether “no t-cell protection” is a likely possibility. And an incredibly difficult thing to determine conclusive from real world data with so many possible factors for determine the severity of viruses circulating (vaccine generated immunity, boosters, prior infection (known and unknown) including asymptomatic prior infection, genetic factors...
It may take decades before scientists can come up with definitive answers to what is going on. In many ways it is actually more sensible to look at general knowledge of viruses, as opposed to specific knowledge - more so as the virus becomes less and less “novel”.
The researchers also find that this reduction in neutralising antibodies could impact vaccine efficacy against severe disease. In a worst-case scenario where the decay rate after a booster dose is the same as that observed after the first 2 doses, the study predicts that vaccine efficacy against severe disease (hospitalisation) may drop from 96.5% (95% CrI 96.1%–96.8%) against Delta to 80.1% (76.3%–83.02) against Omicron by 60 days after the primary vaccine course followed by a booster of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine if antibodies decay at the same rate following the booster as observed following the primary vaccine course. If this rate of decay is half that rate, the drop is estimated to be from 97.6% (95% CrI 97.4%-97.9%) against Delta to 85.9% (95% CrI 83.1%-88.3%) against Omicron. However, this could be further moderated by the increased longevity of T cell-mediated immunity.
Then why the caveat about the T-cell stuff, surely that should be included in such a model?
As I said, there is an awful lot of wishful thinking here on the basis of "T-cells" being the answer. I am not convinced without further evidence
I think you simply do not understand the role of T-cells etc in the complexity of the immune response. You seem fixated on waning immunity, measured simply by the decline of nABs, and post a link/quote from a modelling paper which makes extensive use of ‘may’ to caveat unknowns.
You have no evidence to the contrary. When it exists, we can discuss it then. For now I will stick by what the studies actually say.
You seem happy to cherry pick from those studies, the bits you like - and to ignore the bits you don't
The Royal parasites should fund their own yacht, we shouldn't spend this money on the country's largest benefit scroungers, but use the money to look after our children.
England could fit an air purifier to every classroom for half the price of the new royal yacht, a move which scientists and campaigners say would significantly reduce the spread of Covid in schools.
The move would cost about £140m, according to calculations by the Liberal Democrats. Government sources have said there will be no delay to the start of the school term, despite surging Omicron cases, and that any additional restrictions will not include classroom closures.
The Government have funded the new Royal Yacht as a great tool to sell global Britain post Brexit and sign new trade deals and attract trade across the globe.
Cheese chappie unhappy. He was 'invited to an online meeting with Victoria Prentis, a minister at the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. She suggested that emerging markets could compensate for the Brexit-related hole in the Cheshire Cheese Company’s finances.
Spurrell said he had pursued new business in Norway and Canada but post-Brexit trade deals sealed by the government had put barriers in place.
“We no longer have any ability to deal with the EU as our three distributors in Germany, France and Italy have said we have become too expensive because of the new checks and paperwork.
“And now we’ve also lost Norway since the trade deal, as duty for wholesale is 273%. Then we tried Canada but what the government didn’t tell us is that duty of 244% is applied on any consignment over $20 [£15].”
That meant Canadian customers who ordered a gift pack worth £50, including transport fees, were asked to pay £178 extra in duty when the courier arrived at their door, Spurrell said. “As you can imagine, customers were saying: ‘You can take that back, we don’t want it anymore’.”'
The researchers also find that this reduction in neutralising antibodies could impact vaccine efficacy against severe disease. In a worst-case scenario where the decay rate after a booster dose is the same as that observed after the first 2 doses, the study predicts that vaccine efficacy against severe disease (hospitalisation) may drop from 96.5% (95% CrI 96.1%–96.8%) against Delta to 80.1% (76.3%–83.02) against Omicron by 60 days after the primary vaccine course followed by a booster of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine if antibodies decay at the same rate following the booster as observed following the primary vaccine course. If this rate of decay is half that rate, the drop is estimated to be from 97.6% (95% CrI 97.4%-97.9%) against Delta to 85.9% (95% CrI 83.1%-88.3%) against Omicron. However, this could be further moderated by the increased longevity of T cell-mediated immunity.
Then why the caveat about the T-cell stuff, surely that should be included in such a model?
As I said, there is an awful lot of wishful thinking here on the basis of "T-cells" being the answer. I am not convinced without further evidence
I think you simply do not understand the role of T-cells etc in the complexity of the immune response. You seem fixated on waning immunity, measured simply by the decline of nABs, and post a link/quote from a modelling paper which makes extensive use of ‘may’ to caveat unknowns.
You have no evidence to the contrary. When it exists, we can discuss it then. For now I will stick by what the studies actually say.
You seem happy to cherry pick from those studies, the bits you like - and to ignore the bits you don't
You aren't sticking to what they say though, are you? You are saying waning immunity will lead to more people in hospital. That's not what they've said.
The Royal parasites should fund their own yacht, we shouldn't spend this money on the country's largest benefit scroungers, but use the money to look after our children.
England could fit an air purifier to every classroom for half the price of the new royal yacht, a move which scientists and campaigners say would significantly reduce the spread of Covid in schools.
The move would cost about £140m, according to calculations by the Liberal Democrats. Government sources have said there will be no delay to the start of the school term, despite surging Omicron cases, and that any additional restrictions will not include classroom closures.
The Government have funded the new Royal Yacht as a great tool to sell global Britain post Brexit and sign new trade deals and attract trade across the globe.
The Royal family have not asked for it
What an utter load of drivel
I think Charles/William would be absolutely desperate to avoid this in the middle of a pandemic. Awful PR.
I view the Royals as rich people who have to spend their whole lives under the spotlight and do a series of incredibly boring and meaningless tasks.
If we go for a Republic, they'll remain rich and keep the nice bits (Sandringham/Balmoral etc) and have a sudden improvement in their work/life balance.
Also the RN doesn't have enough matelots for the ships it does have without providing a permanent detachment for the royal luxury barge.
The researchers also find that this reduction in neutralising antibodies could impact vaccine efficacy against severe disease. In a worst-case scenario where the decay rate after a booster dose is the same as that observed after the first 2 doses, the study predicts that vaccine efficacy against severe disease (hospitalisation) may drop from 96.5% (95% CrI 96.1%–96.8%) against Delta to 80.1% (76.3%–83.02) against Omicron by 60 days after the primary vaccine course followed by a booster of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine if antibodies decay at the same rate following the booster as observed following the primary vaccine course. If this rate of decay is half that rate, the drop is estimated to be from 97.6% (95% CrI 97.4%-97.9%) against Delta to 85.9% (95% CrI 83.1%-88.3%) against Omicron. However, this could be further moderated by the increased longevity of T cell-mediated immunity.
Then why the caveat about the T-cell stuff, surely that should be included in such a model?
As I said, there is an awful lot of wishful thinking here on the basis of "T-cells" being the answer. I am not convinced without further evidence
I think you simply do not understand the role of T-cells etc in the complexity of the immune response. You seem fixated on waning immunity, measured simply by the decline of nABs, and post a link/quote from a modelling paper which makes extensive use of ‘may’ to caveat unknowns.
You have no evidence to the contrary. When it exists, we can discuss it then. For now I will stick by what the studies actually say.
You seem happy to cherry pick from those studies, the bits you like - and to ignore the bits you don't
You aren't sticking to what they say though, are you? You are saying waning immunity will lead to more people in hospital. That's not what they've said.
The researchers also find that this reduction in neutralising antibodies could impact vaccine efficacy against severe disease. In a worst-case scenario where the decay rate after a booster dose is the same as that observed after the first 2 doses, the study predicts that vaccine efficacy against severe disease (hospitalisation) may drop from 96.5% (95% CrI 96.1%–96.8%) against Delta to 80.1% (76.3%–83.02) against Omicron by 60 days after the primary vaccine course followed by a booster of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine if antibodies decay at the same rate following the booster as observed following the primary vaccine course. If this rate of decay is half that rate, the drop is estimated to be from 97.6% (95% CrI 97.4%-97.9%) against Delta to 85.9% (95% CrI 83.1%-88.3%) against Omicron. However, this could be further moderated by the increased longevity of T cell-mediated immunity.
Then why the caveat about the T-cell stuff, surely that should be included in such a model?
As I said, there is an awful lot of wishful thinking here on the basis of "T-cells" being the answer. I am not convinced without further evidence
I think you simply do not understand the role of T-cells etc in the complexity of the immune response. You seem fixated on waning immunity, measured simply by the decline of nABs, and post a link/quote from a modelling paper which makes extensive use of ‘may’ to caveat unknowns.
You have no evidence to the contrary. When it exists, we can discuss it then. For now I will stick by what the studies actually say.
You seem happy to cherry pick from those studies, the bits you like - and to ignore the bits you don't
You aren't sticking to what they say though, are you? You are saying waning immunity will lead to more people in hospital. That's not what they've said.
Yes it is.
No, they are not certain, and they even admit their model is not complete. You've just ignored all those caveats and assumed their worst case scenario is true.
I never claimed immunity is an on/off switch but there is concern over time that immunity wanes and we will be in a lot of trouble.
We see this in the studies that show two doses gives reduced protection.
Against infection yes. Better against serious disease. The concern is mostly journalists I think, and people on Twitter. Most immunologists are happy with how the vaccines are going.
Happy with now but we likely need more boosters and the studies themselves note reduced immunity as a big concern.
They definitely have not concluded there is nothing to worry about
Again, which immunity? It’s very complicated, hence journalists get hung up on neutralisation studies, not the full picture.
Nothing to do with journalists, I'm reading the actual studies.
It seems like you're interpreting it via journalists as well, just from the other side.
I do not think we are out of the woods - of course I hope I am wrong!
I teach medicinal chemistry and I’m very much immersed in the scientific literature. I read the studies, I’m suggesting that the worry about waning immunity is primarily a media notion based on the natural decline of nABs.
The studies themselves note waning immunity is a concern. I am just repeating what they say.
The studies do not - as the media have said - suggest everything is okay.
Why mark this off topic? And this is exactly my point, anyone that dissents from "everything is fine" is shouted down
The researchers also find that this reduction in neutralising antibodies could impact vaccine efficacy against severe disease. In a worst-case scenario where the decay rate after a booster dose is the same as that observed after the first 2 doses, the study predicts that vaccine efficacy against severe disease (hospitalisation) may drop from 96.5% (95% CrI 96.1%–96.8%) against Delta to 80.1% (76.3%–83.02) against Omicron by 60 days after the primary vaccine course followed by a booster of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine if antibodies decay at the same rate following the booster as observed following the primary vaccine course. If this rate of decay is half that rate, the drop is estimated to be from 97.6% (95% CrI 97.4%-97.9%) against Delta to 85.9% (95% CrI 83.1%-88.3%) against Omicron. However, this could be further moderated by the increased longevity of T cell-mediated immunity.
Then why the caveat about the T-cell stuff, surely that should be included in such a model?
As I said, there is an awful lot of wishful thinking here on the basis of "T-cells" being the answer. I am not convinced without further evidence
I think you simply do not understand the role of T-cells etc in the complexity of the immune response. You seem fixated on waning immunity, measured simply by the decline of nABs, and post a link/quote from a modelling paper which makes extensive use of ‘may’ to caveat unknowns.
You have no evidence to the contrary. When it exists, we can discuss it then. For now I will stick by what the studies actually say.
You seem happy to cherry pick from those studies, the bits you like - and to ignore the bits you don't
You aren't sticking to what they say though, are you? You are saying waning immunity will lead to more people in hospital. That's not what they've said.
Yes it is.
No, they are not certain, and they even admit their model is not complete. You've just ignored all those caveats and assumed their worst case scenario is true.
And you've assumed everything is fine without any evidence to support that either
Who the bloody hell is Adam Brooks? I mean, I welcome it too, but that isn't headline news. Someone I had heard of saying it was the most moronic decision in the whole history of politics might be.
He has 221 000 twitter followers and is one of the leading figures opposing restrictions and a pub owner.
I expect the Tories to get something of a Boris bounce after the PM ruled out further restrictions today, especially in England and any voters who have gone RefUK or DK will start to move back into the Tory column
I expect tomorrow's mail, express, telegraph and sun will be writing very positive columns about the decision tomorrow
He then has to hope his gamble pays off.
If the NHS falls over in three weeks time they will be kicking him again.
I have just said to my dear lady if this decision is correct then it will have huge implications for the devolved administration
If it is wrong then Boris is toast
It depends if safety first lockdown is remembered as long and bitterly as a NHS crash due late action.
I think Boris has called it right. I think vaccination works.
I also think Boris toast snyway, the country thinks he is a liar and will never listen to him again. Tories need to choose new leader asap. Boris leading them over cliff, his policy’s are dangerous crap.
So why con home got Truss three opinion points up on Rishi 😦
Boris will have reunited the right behind him after ruling out further restrictions, that will get the Tory core vote back and get a few libertarians from Labour too.
I never claimed immunity is an on/off switch but there is concern over time that immunity wanes and we will be in a lot of trouble.
We see this in the studies that show two doses gives reduced protection.
Against infection yes. Better against serious disease. The concern is mostly journalists I think, and people on Twitter. Most immunologists are happy with how the vaccines are going.
Happy with now but we likely need more boosters and the studies themselves note reduced immunity as a big concern.
They definitely have not concluded there is nothing to worry about
Again, which immunity? It’s very complicated, hence journalists get hung up on neutralisation studies, not the full picture.
Nothing to do with journalists, I'm reading the actual studies.
It seems like you're interpreting it via journalists as well, just from the other side.
I do not think we are out of the woods - of course I hope I am wrong!
I teach medicinal chemistry and I’m very much immersed in the scientific literature. I read the studies, I’m suggesting that the worry about waning immunity is primarily a media notion based on the natural decline of nABs.
The studies themselves note waning immunity is a concern. I am just repeating what they say.
The studies do not - as the media have said - suggest everything is okay.
Why mark this off topic? And this is exactly my point, anyone that dissents from "everything is fine" is shouted down
lol, given your previous use of that button that's a bit rich!
Who the bloody hell is Adam Brooks? I mean, I welcome it too, but that isn't headline news. Someone I had heard of saying it was the most moronic decision in the whole history of politics might be.
He has 221 000 twitter followers and is one of the leading figures opposing restrictions and a pub owner.
I expect the Tories to get something of a Boris bounce after the PM ruled out further restrictions today, especially in England and any voters who have gone RefUK or DK will start to move back into the Tory column
I expect tomorrow's mail, express, telegraph and sun will be writing very positive columns about the decision tomorrow
He then has to hope his gamble pays off.
If the NHS falls over in three weeks time they will be kicking him again.
I have just said to my dear lady if this decision is correct then it will have huge implications for the devolved administration
If it is wrong then Boris is toast
It depends if safety first lockdown is remembered as long and bitterly as a NHS crash due late action.
I think Boris has called it right. I think vaccination works.
I also think Boris toast snyway, the country thinks he is a liar and will never listen to him again. Tories need to choose new leader asap. Boris leading them over cliff, his policy’s are dangerous crap.
So why con home got Truss three opinion points up on Rishi 😦
I largely agree but Conhome is not the arbiter on who takes over
Thank goodness! Them putting truss ahead of Rishi for PM is s c a r y 🙀
I never claimed immunity is an on/off switch but there is concern over time that immunity wanes and we will be in a lot of trouble.
We see this in the studies that show two doses gives reduced protection.
Against infection yes. Better against serious disease. The concern is mostly journalists I think, and people on Twitter. Most immunologists are happy with how the vaccines are going.
Happy with now but we likely need more boosters and the studies themselves note reduced immunity as a big concern.
They definitely have not concluded there is nothing to worry about
Again, which immunity? It’s very complicated, hence journalists get hung up on neutralisation studies, not the full picture.
Nothing to do with journalists, I'm reading the actual studies.
It seems like you're interpreting it via journalists as well, just from the other side.
I do not think we are out of the woods - of course I hope I am wrong!
I teach medicinal chemistry and I’m very much immersed in the scientific literature. I read the studies, I’m suggesting that the worry about waning immunity is primarily a media notion based on the natural decline of nABs.
The studies themselves note waning immunity is a concern. I am just repeating what they say.
The studies do not - as the media have said - suggest everything is okay.
Why mark this off topic? And this is exactly my point, anyone that dissents from "everything is fine" is shouted down
lol, given your previous use of that button that's a bit rich!
The Royal parasites should fund their own yacht, we shouldn't spend this money on the country's largest benefit scroungers, but use the money to look after our children.
England could fit an air purifier to every classroom for half the price of the new royal yacht, a move which scientists and campaigners say would significantly reduce the spread of Covid in schools.
The move would cost about £140m, according to calculations by the Liberal Democrats. Government sources have said there will be no delay to the start of the school term, despite surging Omicron cases, and that any additional restrictions will not include classroom closures.
The Government have funded the new Royal Yacht as a great tool to sell global Britain post Brexit and sign new trade deals and attract trade across the globe.
The Royal family have not asked for it
What an utter load of drivel
I think Charles/William would be absolutely desperate to avoid this in the middle of a pandemic. Awful PR.
I view the Royals as rich people who have to spend their whole lives under the spotlight and do a series of incredibly boring and meaningless tasks.
If we go for a Republic, they'll remain rich and keep the nice bits (Sandringham/Balmoral etc) and have a sudden improvement in their work/life balance.
Who the bloody hell is Adam Brooks? I mean, I welcome it too, but that isn't headline news. Someone I had heard of saying it was the most moronic decision in the whole history of politics might be.
He has 221 000 twitter followers and is one of the leading figures opposing restrictions and a pub owner.
I expect the Tories to get something of a Boris bounce after the PM ruled out further restrictions today, especially in England and any voters who have gone RefUK or DK will start to move back into the Tory column
I expect tomorrow's mail, express, telegraph and sun will be writing very positive columns about the decision tomorrow
He then has to hope his gamble pays off.
If the NHS falls over in three weeks time they will be kicking him again.
I have just said to my dear lady if this decision is correct then it will have huge implications for the devolved administration
If it is wrong then Boris is toast
It depends if safety first lockdown is remembered as long and bitterly as a NHS crash due late action.
I think Boris has called it right. I think vaccination works.
I also think Boris toast snyway, the country thinks he is a liar and will never listen to him again. Tories need to choose new leader asap. Boris leading them over cliff, his policy’s are dangerous crap.
So why con home got Truss three opinion points up on Rishi 😦
Boris will have reunited the right behind him after ruling out further restrictions, that will get the Tory core vote back and get a few libertarians from Labour too.
The researchers also find that this reduction in neutralising antibodies could impact vaccine efficacy against severe disease. In a worst-case scenario where the decay rate after a booster dose is the same as that observed after the first 2 doses, the study predicts that vaccine efficacy against severe disease (hospitalisation) may drop from 96.5% (95% CrI 96.1%–96.8%) against Delta to 80.1% (76.3%–83.02) against Omicron by 60 days after the primary vaccine course followed by a booster of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine if antibodies decay at the same rate following the booster as observed following the primary vaccine course. If this rate of decay is half that rate, the drop is estimated to be from 97.6% (95% CrI 97.4%-97.9%) against Delta to 85.9% (95% CrI 83.1%-88.3%) against Omicron. However, this could be further moderated by the increased longevity of T cell-mediated immunity.
Then why the caveat about the T-cell stuff, surely that should be included in such a model?
As I said, there is an awful lot of wishful thinking here on the basis of "T-cells" being the answer. I am not convinced without further evidence
I think you simply do not understand the role of T-cells etc in the complexity of the immune response. You seem fixated on waning immunity, measured simply by the decline of nABs, and post a link/quote from a modelling paper which makes extensive use of ‘may’ to caveat unknowns.
You have no evidence to the contrary. When it exists, we can discuss it then. For now I will stick by what the studies actually say.
You seem happy to cherry pick from those studies, the bits you like - and to ignore the bits you don't
You aren't sticking to what they say though, are you? You are saying waning immunity will lead to more people in hospital. That's not what they've said.
Yes it is.
No, they are not certain, and they even admit their model is not complete. You've just ignored all those caveats and assumed their worst case scenario is true.
And you've assumed everything is fine without any evidence to support that either
Nope, I'm not saying anything of the sort. I'm just saying you are interpreting their worst case scenario, caveats and all, as what is going to happen.
The Royal parasites should fund their own yacht, we shouldn't spend this money on the country's largest benefit scroungers, but use the money to look after our children.
England could fit an air purifier to every classroom for half the price of the new royal yacht, a move which scientists and campaigners say would significantly reduce the spread of Covid in schools.
The move would cost about £140m, according to calculations by the Liberal Democrats. Government sources have said there will be no delay to the start of the school term, despite surging Omicron cases, and that any additional restrictions will not include classroom closures.
The Government have funded the new Royal Yacht as a great tool to sell global Britain post Brexit and sign new trade deals and attract trade across the globe.
Cheese chappie unhappy. He was 'invited to an online meeting with Victoria Prentis, a minister at the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. She suggested that emerging markets could compensate for the Brexit-related hole in the Cheshire Cheese Company’s finances.
Spurrell said he had pursued new business in Norway and Canada but post-Brexit trade deals sealed by the government had put barriers in place.
“We no longer have any ability to deal with the EU as our three distributors in Germany, France and Italy have said we have become too expensive because of the new checks and paperwork.
“And now we’ve also lost Norway since the trade deal, as duty for wholesale is 273%. Then we tried Canada but what the government didn’t tell us is that duty of 244% is applied on any consignment over $20 [£15].”
That meant Canadian customers who ordered a gift pack worth £50, including transport fees, were asked to pay £178 extra in duty when the courier arrived at their door, Spurrell said. “As you can imagine, customers were saying: ‘You can take that back, we don’t want it anymore’.”'
But surely our excellent Conservative Government knew ages ago that that was what would happen. They aren't stupid, are they? This must have been what they wanted and planned for, though I'm not sure exactly why they should.
Perhaps a Government spokesman could enlighten us.... Is Mr HYFUD around anywhere?
The Royal parasites should fund their own yacht, we shouldn't spend this money on the country's largest benefit scroungers, but use the money to look after our children.
England could fit an air purifier to every classroom for half the price of the new royal yacht, a move which scientists and campaigners say would significantly reduce the spread of Covid in schools.
The move would cost about £140m, according to calculations by the Liberal Democrats. Government sources have said there will be no delay to the start of the school term, despite surging Omicron cases, and that any additional restrictions will not include classroom closures.
The Government have funded the new Royal Yacht as a great tool to sell global Britain post Brexit and sign new trade deals and attract trade across the globe.
The Royal family have not asked for it
What an utter load of drivel
I think Charles/William would be absolutely desperate to avoid this in the middle of a pandemic. Awful PR.
I view the Royals as rich people who have to spend their whole lives under the spotlight and do a series of incredibly boring and meaningless tasks.
If we go for a Republic, they'll remain rich and keep the nice bits (Sandringham/Balmoral etc) and have a sudden improvement in their work/life balance.
The people voted for Brexit and they now have a great new yacht to sell the global Britain they voted for.
The royals did not ask for it but will benefit from it too as ambassadors for the UK abroad
As someone pro-indy (though, increasingly, not particularly pro-SNP any more) it's really irritating to be rooting for the "other side" in terms of how I think we should be dealing with covid, but at this point I believe HMG are doing the right thing and the SG doing the wrong thing.
If we believe in science here as we do, then we need to assess the science at it exists. This clearly makes mention of waning immunity and the drop in immunity = more people in hospital.
Now I am happy to discuss that this may or may not be true - but to say so is to disagree with the studies, which people seem happy to cherry pick for other points of view.
Let's say your point about waning immunity is critically important - I honestly have no idea whether it is or not but let's take it as read for the purposes of discussion. What can be done about it? Yes, get on with planning to give everyone their 4th jab. Then what? By the time you're at the end of the 4th jabs, the initial 4th-jab cohorts will probably be needing their 5th jabs if the immunity is waning on the timescales of the data you are citing.
What then? I'm not convinced endless jabs in perpetuity are going to be any more popular than restrictions. Are we just hoping that something else comes along or that spring and summers rescues us for a little while?
The Royal parasites should fund their own yacht, we shouldn't spend this money on the country's largest benefit scroungers, but use the money to look after our children.
England could fit an air purifier to every classroom for half the price of the new royal yacht, a move which scientists and campaigners say would significantly reduce the spread of Covid in schools.
The move would cost about £140m, according to calculations by the Liberal Democrats. Government sources have said there will be no delay to the start of the school term, despite surging Omicron cases, and that any additional restrictions will not include classroom closures.
The Government have funded the new Royal Yacht as a great tool to sell global Britain post Brexit and sign new trade deals and attract trade across the globe.
The Royal family have not asked for it
What an utter load of drivel
I think Charles/William would be absolutely desperate to avoid this in the middle of a pandemic. Awful PR.
I view the Royals as rich people who have to spend their whole lives under the spotlight and do a series of incredibly boring and meaningless tasks.
If we go for a Republic, they'll remain rich and keep the nice bits (Sandringham/Balmoral etc) and have a sudden improvement in their work/life balance.
The people voted for Brexit and they now have a great new yacht to sell the global Brotain they voted for.
The royals did not ask for it but will benefit from it too as ambassadors for the UK abroad
Comments
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/232657/boosters-vital-mitigate-impact-omicron-lose/
This is a more interesting study - Omicron does not appear to evade T cell response from prior infection with earlier variants (or vaccination).
Minimal cross-over between mutations associated with Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 and CD8+ T cell epitopes identified in COVID-19 convalescent individuals
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.06.471446v1
… both natural infection and vaccination develop T-cell based responses, in addition to antibodies. This study examined if the parts of the virus, or epitopes, targeted by the CD8+ T-cell response in thirty individuals who recovered from COVID-19 in 2020 were mutated in the Omicron variant. Only one of 52 epitopes identified in this population contained an amino acid that was mutated in Omicron. These data suggest that the T-cell immune response in previously infected, and most likely vaccinated individuals, should still be effective against Omicron.…
Most of the modelling ultimately amounts to “increased transmissibility means severity has to be significantly lower”. But how that plays out we don’t know. And given we are letting it largely sweep through the population now anyway, it might well be that for many the vaccines become a bit of an irrelevance.
Let's hope the T-cells help to workaround such a problem but I will continue to raise concerns rather than just "everything is fine"
In any case, I definitely disagree (from numerous personal contacts who i've talked to over Xmas) that it's no more than a bad cold - sometimes it is, and sometimes it's much worse. We just don't have a clear picture yet.
I expect the Tories to get something of a Boris bounce after the PM ruled out further restrictions today, especially in England and any voters who have gone RefUK or DK will start to move back into the Tory column
(But don't forget BigG. Johnson has gone against scientific advice that he should take action now to relieve pressure on the NHS over the next weeks, simply to save his own skin).
Both would be.... confusing....
The politics of it are a completely different matter.
This would be resolved when the sunlight hits them and they all explode.
England could fit an air purifier to every classroom for half the price of the new royal yacht, a move which scientists and campaigners say would significantly reduce the spread of Covid in schools.
The move would cost about £140m, according to calculations by the Liberal Democrats. Government sources have said there will be no delay to the start of the school term, despite surging Omicron cases, and that any additional restrictions will not include classroom closures.
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2021/dec/27/covid-air-filters-for-all-classrooms-in-england-would-cost-half-of-royal-yacht
And fair enough - your position is not that you reject it but you want more evidence. The question that every is debating is how far caution should be prioritised (when it comes at a cost) is the face of uncertainty.
I edited my post from UK to Britain is fast as possible (which is what I meant to write) but you managed to respond beforehand. I have been to Northern Ireland, in 2018.
A fairly substantial in Welsh Govt terms support package has been announced for hospitality businesses which the executive said allowed them to support those businesses through to February. No doubt its not anywhere near enough.
And the package to support professional sports teams who have to play behind closed doors was derisory.
The whole raft of restrictions announced last week were contradictory, stupid and pointless. Some are downright offensive, like the fine for individual employees who fail to work from home (not that it will ever be enforced).
Drakeford hasn't had a bad pandemic but he's out on a limb here and winding up a lot of different groups of people.
If the NHS falls over in three weeks time they will be kicking him again.
Something which declines over time after any infection or vaccine administration. Your immune system wouldn’t be much use against other infections if it maintained a high level of circulating antibodies against a single infection permanently.
It has a memory function, though, which means it reacts more quickly in chucking out new antibodies against an infection it has seen before:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Memory_B_cell
Honestly, you're talking about them like they're cold fusion or something. This is basic stuff the human race has known about for decades. The only reason we can't prove we'll be fine is that not enough time has passed to study the effects properly.
I think such a position has far greater chance of taking the worried public with the than the stereotypical “Boris says party on with confidence” stuff. Which just lead people to conclude that he’s gambling with lives.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02669-2
Not that I expect you to care about this comment having got the reaction you wanted.
I reckon he will be lucky to make it beyond February.
Why con home got Truss ahead of Rishi?
If it is wrong then Boris is toast
I doubt you could do every UK classroom effectively for that money, though.
When we hear that Grant Shapps is the most hawkish in Cabinet followed by Liz Truss, and Mad Nad is a dove, we can guess those who think they are runners and riders, are all jockeying for position post Johnson.
Now I am happy to discuss that this may or may not be true - but to say so is to disagree with the studies, which people seem happy to cherry pick for other points of view.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/zs6q2p3/revision/4
The Royal family have not asked for it
Also I suspect Welsh border businesses, including night clubs, will be furious as their customers merely cross the border and spend their money in England, same in the Scottish Borders, Berwick will be delighted
Meanwhile, on the subject of waning immunity, here is some evidence in the other direction:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/astrazeneca-oxford-europe-fears-b1982611.html
The 1998 Scotland act allows the SG to borrow from HMG, but I'm not sure to what extent. Surely they could have amended that and volleyed this back at Sturgeon?
We already have higher taxes here in Scotland, so an obvious mechanism to pay back the "Marshall/Sunak plan".
I think Boris has called it right. I think vaccination works.
I also think Boris toast snyway, the country thinks he is a liar and will never listen to him again. Tories need to choose new leader asap. Boris leading them over cliff, his policy’s are dangerous crap.
So why con home got Truss three opinion points up on Rishi 😦
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/dec/27/brexit-the-biggest-disaster-that-any-government-has-ever-negotiated
While those who are typically least keen on investment in general suddenly find it to be a great idea.
I view the Royals as rich people who have to spend their whole lives under the spotlight and do a series of incredibly boring and meaningless tasks.
If we go for a Republic, they'll remain rich and keep the nice bits (Sandringham/Balmoral etc) and have a sudden improvement in their work/life balance.
I'm all for sensible investment that generates a return, your point is utterly absurd
You keep saying this but are you sure you aren’t confusing “studies” with “models”. The models take assumption which may or may not be true and model the impacts based on those assumptions. Sometimes the assumptions are a wide range.
But fundamentally the assumptions contain elements like levels of “severity” for infected individuals, but don’t necessarily delve into the complexities which influence severity. So they might model “no T-cell protection” and arrive at bad outcomes. But the fact that they have modelled it says nothing about whether “no t-cell protection” is a likely possibility. And an incredibly difficult thing to determine conclusive from real world data with so many possible factors for determine the severity of viruses circulating (vaccine generated immunity, boosters, prior infection (known and unknown) including asymptomatic prior infection, genetic factors...
It may take decades before scientists can come up with definitive answers to what is going on. In many ways it is actually more sensible to look at general knowledge of viruses, as opposed to specific knowledge - more so as the virus becomes less and less “novel”.
You seem happy to cherry pick from those studies, the bits you like - and to ignore the bits you don't
Spurrell said he had pursued new business in Norway and Canada but post-Brexit trade deals sealed by the government had put barriers in place.
“We no longer have any ability to deal with the EU as our three distributors in Germany, France and Italy have said we have become too expensive because of the new checks and paperwork.
“And now we’ve also lost Norway since the trade deal, as duty for wholesale is 273%. Then we tried Canada but what the government didn’t tell us is that duty of 244% is applied on any consignment over $20 [£15].”
That meant Canadian customers who ordered a gift pack worth £50, including transport fees, were asked to pay £178 extra in duty when the courier arrived at their door, Spurrell said. “As you can imagine, customers were saying: ‘You can take that back, we don’t want it anymore’.”'
He is far safer now than he was before Christmas
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/charles-and-william-arent-on-board-for-downing-street-royal-yacht-plan-0mq7vhl0c
Perhaps a Government spokesman could enlighten us.... Is Mr HYFUD around anywhere?
The royals did not ask for it but will benefit from it too as ambassadors for the UK abroad
Let's say your point about waning immunity is critically important - I honestly have no idea whether it is or not but let's take it as read for the purposes of discussion. What can be done about it? Yes, get on with planning to give everyone their 4th jab. Then what? By the time you're at the end of the 4th jabs, the initial 4th-jab cohorts will probably be needing their 5th jabs if the immunity is waning on the timescales of the data you are citing.
What then? I'm not convinced endless jabs in perpetuity are going to be any more popular than restrictions. Are we just hoping that something else comes along or that spring and summers rescues us for a little while?