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Counting the cost of trying to save Owen Paterson – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited January 23 in General
imageCounting the cost of trying to save Owen Paterson – politicalbetting.com

New research and MRP analysis on voting behaviour and standards conducted on behalf of 38 Degrees by Survation in conjunction with Professor Christopher Hanretty of Royal Holloway University has found that the Conservative majority won in 2019 could disappear, should the current voting trend continue. The projections result in a hung Parliament, with Labour the largest party by a significant margin. 

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    Would be basically 2010 in reverse on these figures, a hung parliament but Labour largest party and close to a majority with the LDs. Starmer as Cameron and Boris as Brown but Labour as largest party able to ignore the LDs.

    However considering the endless media attacks on partygate, which was more significant than Paterson in moving the polls, still no Labour majority even on this poll.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    edited December 2021
    2nd.

    FPT:

    theProle said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    FFS

    EXCL: Significant life events such as weddings and funerals are set to be exempted from new Covid restrictions this time if the government decides it needs to impose tougher measures

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/weddings-and-funerals-spared-from-covid-curbs-7nzcdmtlv

    Good news. Some of the worst stories not involving death of the whole pandemic, have been from people forced to cancel weddings and unable to attend funerals.
    I hadn't appreciated until recently how much stress the "what stupid covid rules will be in force on the date" causes. I've a vested interest, I'm getting married next May (and we're doing it primarily because we want to be married to each other, so we'll go ahead come what may, even if it's literally just the two of us, a minister and two witnesses), but planning everything round various different levels of restriction is just nightmarish - and we're having a small do by modern standards - 120ish people in the little mission hall my fiancée attended until she left home, and a hog roast afterwards in a hired church hall.

    What the poor people who want to invite hundreds to a fancy do in a big hotel costing thousands and thousands* are going through I've no idea...

    *I reckon we'll end up spending £1500-2000 all in
    £12 a person sounds a bit low: are you charging these 120 teetotallers for the hog roast or has your accountant slipped a decimal point somewhere along the line? ETA and congratulations!
    Indoor hog roast? Ye Gods.

    If it's a Gospel Hall, they will be quite happy with the absence of most of the ceremony.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    Meanwhile Truss takes a narrow lead in the new ConservativeHome next Tory leader poll on 23% to 20% for Sunak.

    Steve Baker takes 3rd, tied with Penny Mordaunt on 8% each

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/12/our-next-tory-leader-survey-truss-leads-sunak-by-18-votes.html
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    edited December 2021
    3rd.

    On topic.

    Thanks for the header, Mike.

    How big a sample set does an MRP poll require?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    edited December 2021
    4th

    Three of a kind.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 11,911
    edited December 2021
    5th Four out of four and now I'm bored.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 1,656
    HYUFD said:

    Would be basically 2010 in reverse on these figures, a hung parliament but Labour largest party and close to a majority with the LDs. Starmer as Cameron and Boris as Brown but Labour as largest party able to ignore the LDs.

    However considering the endless media attacks on partygate, which was more significant than Paterson in moving the polls, still no Labour majority even on this poll.

    To be fair, you’re not going to get a Labour majority recovering from the worse Lab result since the mid 30s.

    The Tories need time in opposition. They are rudderless and clueless.
  • Labour/LD Government would be good as it would put the Tories into opposition and hopefully back to normality.

    Things can only get better
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,000
    HYUFD said:

    Would be basically 2010 in reverse on these figures, a hung parliament but Labour largest party and close to a majority with the LDs. Starmer as Cameron and Boris as Brown but Labour as largest party able to ignore the LDs.

    However considering the endless media attacks on partygate, which was more significant than Paterson in moving the polls, still no Labour majority even on this poll.

    I'd have thought the chances of the LDs returning just 9 seats off the back of 100 Tory losses is precisely zero. So the key question would be where the MRP is allocating LD seats and how much lower the Tories can go.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,757
    HYUFD said:

    Would be basically 2010 in reverse on these figures, a hung parliament but Labour largest party and close to a majority with the LDs. Starmer as Cameron and Boris as Brown but Labour as largest party able to ignore the LDs.

    However considering the endless media attacks on partygate, which was more significant than Paterson in moving the polls, still no Labour majority even on this poll.

    Don't forget you have gerrymandered the constituency boundaries to help yourselves prevent a Labour majority.
  • ydoethur said:

    When people make mistakes, there is one question. Was it a mistake that was obvious at the time? If not, then they should be allowed it. We all make mistakes, and it is sometimes better to be willing to make a decision and risk being wrong than hesitating and finding it's all gone to hell in a handcart anyway.

    This mistake was not only clearly a gargantuan clusterfuck at the time, it actually looks even worse with hindsight. It has literally destroyed Johnson's government and ended his career in spectacular fashion. It may have done significant damage to the party as a whole. It has shattered political unity at a moment when it had become important due to a renewed public health emergency.

    And all for Owen Paterson. An undistinguished former middle-ranking cabinet minister who was deep in the politics of the pork barrel and was not likely to stay in politics much longer anyway. Even if the theoretical aim was to protect Johnson or Patel, it was clearly never going to work.

    Sheer bloody madness. Johnson deserves every ounce of opprobrium he gets for it.

    Have a good morning.

    Good morning

    I could not agree more
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284

    HYUFD said:

    Would be basically 2010 in reverse on these figures, a hung parliament but Labour largest party and close to a majority with the LDs. Starmer as Cameron and Boris as Brown but Labour as largest party able to ignore the LDs.

    However considering the endless media attacks on partygate, which was more significant than Paterson in moving the polls, still no Labour majority even on this poll.

    Don't forget you have gerrymandered the constituency boundaries to help yourselves prevent a Labour majority.
    This poll is pre boundary changes, so it would be even closer with them
  • I remember saying a few months back at the height of Johnson-mania, how he had always come unstuck before and how the popularity would not last and the massive poll lead was not strong.

    For now I go into the new year validated - but Labour still has much work to do
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,757
    ydoethur said:

    When people make mistakes, there is one question. Was it a mistake that was obvious at the time? If not, then they should be allowed it. We all make mistakes, and it is sometimes better to be willing to make a decision and risk being wrong than hesitating and finding it's all gone to hell in a handcart anyway.

    This mistake was not only clearly a gargantuan clusterfuck at the time, it actually looks even worse with hindsight. It has literally destroyed Johnson's government and ended his career in spectacular fashion. It may have done significant damage to the party as a whole. It has shattered political unity at a moment when it had become important due to a renewed public health emergency.

    And all for Owen Paterson. An undistinguished former middle-ranking cabinet minister who was deep in the politics of the pork barrel and was not likely to stay in politics much longer anyway. Even if the theoretical aim was to protect Johnson or Patel, it was clearly never going to work.

    Sheer bloody madness. Johnson deserves every ounce of opprobrium he gets for it.

    Have a good morning.

    It is outrageous that I can only give you one "like" for this post!
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 1,656
    Can any of us even see Johnson recovering from all this? He looks haggard, unwell and with no passion for the job. Maybe a hairbrush would help.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    edited December 2021
    MattW said:

    2nd.

    FPT:

    theProle said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    FFS

    EXCL: Significant life events such as weddings and funerals are set to be exempted from new Covid restrictions this time if the government decides it needs to impose tougher measures

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/weddings-and-funerals-spared-from-covid-curbs-7nzcdmtlv

    Good news. Some of the worst stories not involving death of the whole pandemic, have been from people forced to cancel weddings and unable to attend funerals.
    I hadn't appreciated until recently how much stress the "what stupid covid rules will be in force on the date" causes. I've a vested interest, I'm getting married next May (and we're doing it primarily because we want to be married to each other, so we'll go ahead come what may, even if it's literally just the two of us, a minister and two witnesses), but planning everything round various different levels of restriction is just nightmarish - and we're having a small do by modern standards - 120ish people in the little mission hall my fiancée attended until she left home, and a hog roast afterwards in a hired church hall.

    What the poor people who want to invite hundreds to a fancy do in a big hotel costing thousands and thousands* are going through I've no idea...

    *I reckon we'll end up spending £1500-2000 all in
    £12 a person sounds a bit low: are you charging these 120 teetotallers for the hog roast or has your accountant slipped a decimal point somewhere along the line? ETA and congratulations!
    Indoor hog roast? Ye Gods.

    If it's a Gospel Hall, they will be quite happy with the absence of most of the ceremony.
    Our wedding was a barn dance in one of the church halls in Mrs Eek’s parish with the wedding in the oldest church in the parish (guest vicar was the archdeacon as she was a family friend).

    Our silver wedding was also a barn dance - the great advantage is that any hall will do provided it’s big enough and people do dance as it’s harmless fun.

    Weddings really don’t need to be expensive and it’s the cheaper ones I remember being far more enjoyable.
  • If Johnson does recover the people calling for his head here will be singing his praises again, as they always do
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858
    Will these polls encourage enough Tory red wallers to send their letters to Brady, that is the question.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited December 2021

    Labour/LD Government would be good as it would put the Tories into opposition and hopefully back to normality.

    Things can only get better

    So with Starmer as Cameron and Davey as Clegg and Boris as Brown on that scenario, are Truss or Steve Baker Ed Milliband to Sunak's David Miliband? Would Starmer also be able to avoid referendums ending his premiership as they ended Cameron's?
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    ydoethur said:

    When people make mistakes, there is one question. Was it a mistake that was obvious at the time? If not, then they should be allowed it. We all make mistakes, and it is sometimes better to be willing to make a decision and risk being wrong than hesitating and finding it's all gone to hell in a handcart anyway.

    This mistake was not only clearly a gargantuan clusterfuck at the time, it actually looks even worse with hindsight. It has literally destroyed Johnson's government and ended his career in spectacular fashion. It may have done significant damage to the party as a whole. It has shattered political unity at a moment when it had become important due to a renewed public health emergency.

    And all for Owen Paterson. An undistinguished former middle-ranking cabinet minister who was deep in the politics of the pork barrel and was not likely to stay in politics much longer anyway. Even if the theoretical aim was to protect Johnson or Patel, it was clearly never going to work.

    Sheer bloody madness. Johnson deserves every ounce of opprobrium he gets for it.

    Have a good morning.

    But again you are looking at the actual case and not why was it suddenly so important to get things changed? One forthcoming case is clearly so bad that the disciplinary process needed to be changed in such a hurry that the Paterson case had to be used as the justification?

    The irony is that as soon as Boris leaves anyone sane is going to bin the hideous wallpaper immediately.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284

    Will these polls encourage enough Tory red wallers to send their letters to Brady, that is the question.

    Not sure back to austerity with Sunak or ex Remainer Truss is going to get much swingback from the redwall.

    Better for Boris to keep on with the booster programme and try and avoid more restrictions
  • HYUFD said:

    Would be basically 2010 in reverse on these figures, a hung parliament but Labour largest party and close to a majority with the LDs. Starmer as Cameron and Boris as Brown but Labour as largest party able to ignore the LDs.

    However considering the endless media attacks on partygate, which was more significant than Paterson in moving the polls, still no Labour majority even on this poll.

    Don't forget you have gerrymandered the constituency boundaries to help yourselves prevent a Labour majority.
    What are you talking about? The last boundary review was held under Labour.

    The current boundaries are decades out of date and the boundary review is being done by the independent Electoral Commission as always, no gerrymandering in sight.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 8,257

    Can any of us even see Johnson recovering from all this? He looks haggard, unwell and with no passion for the job. Maybe a hairbrush would help.

    He might at least look more alert if it were rammed up his cloaca.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 35,025
    ydoethur said:

    When people make mistakes, there is one question. Was it a mistake that was obvious at the time? If not, then they should be allowed it. We all make mistakes, and it is sometimes better to be willing to make a decision and risk being wrong than hesitating and finding it's all gone to hell in a handcart anyway.

    This mistake was not only clearly a gargantuan clusterfuck at the time, it actually looks even worse with hindsight. It has literally destroyed Johnson's government and ended his career in spectacular fashion. It may have done significant damage to the party as a whole. It has shattered political unity at a moment when it had become important due to a renewed public health emergency.

    And all for Owen Paterson. An undistinguished former middle-ranking cabinet minister who was deep in the politics of the pork barrel and was not likely to stay in politics much longer anyway. Even if the theoretical aim was to protect Johnson or Patel, it was clearly never going to work.

    Sheer bloody madness. Johnson deserves every ounce of opprobrium he gets for it.

    Have a good morning.

    You lie with dogs you catch fleas. Bunch of lying cheating bent toerags
  • Seems to me that Johnson is an absolute moron with money
  • theProletheProle Posts: 592
    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    When people make mistakes, there is one question. Was it a mistake that was obvious at the time? If not, then they should be allowed it. We all make mistakes, and it is sometimes better to be willing to make a decision and risk being wrong than hesitating and finding it's all gone to hell in a handcart anyway.

    This mistake was not only clearly a gargantuan clusterfuck at the time, it actually looks even worse with hindsight. It has literally destroyed Johnson's government and ended his career in spectacular fashion. It may have done significant damage to the party as a whole. It has shattered political unity at a moment when it had become important due to a renewed public health emergency.

    And all for Owen Paterson. An undistinguished former middle-ranking cabinet minister who was deep in the politics of the pork barrel and was not likely to stay in politics much longer anyway. Even if the theoretical aim was to protect Johnson or Patel, it was clearly never going to work.

    Sheer bloody madness. Johnson deserves every ounce of opprobrium he gets for it.

    Have a good morning.

    But again you are looking at the actual case and not why was it suddenly so important to get things changed? One forthcoming case is clearly so bad that the disciplinary process needed to be changed in such a hurry that the Paterson case had to be used as the justification?

    The irony is that as soon as Boris leaves anyone sane is going to bin the hideous wallpaper immediately.

    If I was the next inhabitant of No10 I'd keep the wallpaper just because I'd chuckle about the stupidity of destroying a political career for the sake of something so hideous every time I saw it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited December 2021
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    When people make mistakes, there is one question. Was it a mistake that was obvious at the time? If not, then they should be allowed it. We all make mistakes, and it is sometimes better to be willing to make a decision and risk being wrong than hesitating and finding it's all gone to hell in a handcart anyway.

    This mistake was not only clearly a gargantuan clusterfuck at the time, it actually looks even worse with hindsight. It has literally destroyed Johnson's government and ended his career in spectacular fashion. It may have done significant damage to the party as a whole. It has shattered political unity at a moment when it had become important due to a renewed public health emergency.

    And all for Owen Paterson. An undistinguished former middle-ranking cabinet minister who was deep in the politics of the pork barrel and was not likely to stay in politics much longer anyway. Even if the theoretical aim was to protect Johnson or Patel, it was clearly never going to work.

    Sheer bloody madness. Johnson deserves every ounce of opprobrium he gets for it.

    Have a good morning.

    His mistake here was listening to Charles Moore, wasn't it? And why does he listen to an imbecile like Charles Moore? Because he needs the Telegraph pay check once again when his time in Number 10 is over to keep his wife in the style to which she expects to become accustomed.

    This is where Boris is most vulnerable. He needs money, lots of money to sustain his families and to live like his richer friends. It will be his downfall but probably not yet.
    Boris currently gets a town house in central London and a country stately home in Buckinghamshire rent free as PM plus chauffeur driven car and police escort everywhere.

    He would need to be earning millions on the lecture circuit to be able to buy that himself, far more than going back to being a scribbler at the Telegraph would pay. The longer he stays PM, the higher his value on the lecture circuit here and in the US
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 16,810
    edited December 2021
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    When people make mistakes, there is one question. Was it a mistake that was obvious at the time? If not, then they should be allowed it. We all make mistakes, and it is sometimes better to be willing to make a decision and risk being wrong than hesitating and finding it's all gone to hell in a handcart anyway.

    This mistake was not only clearly a gargantuan clusterfuck at the time, it actually looks even worse with hindsight. It has literally destroyed Johnson's government and ended his career in spectacular fashion. It may have done significant damage to the party as a whole. It has shattered political unity at a moment when it had become important due to a renewed public health emergency.

    And all for Owen Paterson. An undistinguished former middle-ranking cabinet minister who was deep in the politics of the pork barrel and was not likely to stay in politics much longer anyway. Even if the theoretical aim was to protect Johnson or Patel, it was clearly never going to work.

    Sheer bloody madness. Johnson deserves every ounce of opprobrium he gets for it.

    Have a good morning.

    His mistake here was listening to Charles Moore, wasn't it? And why does he listen to an imbecile like Charles Moore? Because he needs the Telegraph pay check once again when his time in Number 10 is over to keep his wife in the style to which she expects to become accustomed.

    This is where Boris is most vulnerable. He needs money, lots of money to sustain his families and to live like his richer friends. It will be his downfall but probably not yet.
    Boris currently gets a town house in central London and a country stately home in Buckinghamshire rent free as PM plus chauffeur driven car and police escot everywhere.

    He would need to be earning millions on the lecture circuit to be able to buy that himself, far more than going back to being a scribbler at the Telegraph would pay. The longer he stays PM, the higher his value on the lecture circuit here and in the US
    Do you honestly think after the Peppa Pig speech that Johnson is any good at making speeches?

    This honestly was one of the more bizarre compliments he was given, he's always been a horrendous public speaker
  • malcolmg said:

    ydoethur said:

    When people make mistakes, there is one question. Was it a mistake that was obvious at the time? If not, then they should be allowed it. We all make mistakes, and it is sometimes better to be willing to make a decision and risk being wrong than hesitating and finding it's all gone to hell in a handcart anyway.

    This mistake was not only clearly a gargantuan clusterfuck at the time, it actually looks even worse with hindsight. It has literally destroyed Johnson's government and ended his career in spectacular fashion. It may have done significant damage to the party as a whole. It has shattered political unity at a moment when it had become important due to a renewed public health emergency.

    And all for Owen Paterson. An undistinguished former middle-ranking cabinet minister who was deep in the politics of the pork barrel and was not likely to stay in politics much longer anyway. Even if the theoretical aim was to protect Johnson or Patel, it was clearly never going to work.

    Sheer bloody madness. Johnson deserves every ounce of opprobrium he gets for it.

    Have a good morning.

    You lie with dogs you catch fleas. Bunch of lying cheating bent toerags
    Hope you are doing well mate
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,150
    edited December 2021
    So Scotland's new restrictions are officially in place to "target spread of omicron whilst booster vaccinations continue to be rolled out". To be reviewed after 3 weeks.

    Noting:
    - to date there is not much, if any, evidence that booster vaccinations offer much additional protection (over those already vaccinated) against serious outcomes (albeit there may be some limited effect to the extent that boosters might prevent infection in some people)
    - the booster programme is increasingly concentrated in those age groups not to date perceived as being overly susceptible to serious illness
    - but, early evidence is that boosters begin to wain in their effectiveness (in contracting infection - to the extent that they offer protection against omicron anyway) from a period of 6-10 weeks. So for a very significant percentage of the population (particularly the older/more vulnerable population) will be back (arguably for many are already back) to double dose levels of protection by the end of the current period of restrictions
    - fortunately, as above, this may be sufficient for combatting serious illness
    - the booster programme is not a "business as usual" operation, but is diverting significant funds and NHS resources towards its delivery*
    - even if the restrictions are vaguely successful in having some impact on spread of omicron, what reasons are there not to expect the next few months to be dominated by rolling waves of infection (beyond everyone just getting infected anyway? - which if its going to happen doesn't provide justification for economically damaging restrictions to facilitate ongoing (and possibly repeated) booster programmes)
    - when, and how does this ever end? What triggers are going to facilitate a rolling back of mass testing and requirement/need to isolate, particularly for asymptomatic people?

    *i wonder how many of those generously offering their time as volunteers would be quite so generous if they knew how much some people are making off the back of their contributions
  • DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    When people make mistakes, there is one question. Was it a mistake that was obvious at the time? If not, then they should be allowed it. We all make mistakes, and it is sometimes better to be willing to make a decision and risk being wrong than hesitating and finding it's all gone to hell in a handcart anyway.

    This mistake was not only clearly a gargantuan clusterfuck at the time, it actually looks even worse with hindsight. It has literally destroyed Johnson's government and ended his career in spectacular fashion. It may have done significant damage to the party as a whole. It has shattered political unity at a moment when it had become important due to a renewed public health emergency.

    And all for Owen Paterson. An undistinguished former middle-ranking cabinet minister who was deep in the politics of the pork barrel and was not likely to stay in politics much longer anyway. Even if the theoretical aim was to protect Johnson or Patel, it was clearly never going to work.

    Sheer bloody madness. Johnson deserves every ounce of opprobrium he gets for it.

    Have a good morning.

    His mistake here was listening to Charles Moore, wasn't it? And why does he listen to an imbecile like Charles Moore? Because he needs the Telegraph pay check once again when his time in Number 10 is over to keep his wife in the style to which she expects to become accustomed.

    This is where Boris is most vulnerable. He needs money, lots of money to sustain his families and to live like his richer friends. It will be his downfall but probably not yet.
    I would have thought an ex-PM really ought to be able to make much, much more money on the lecture/speech circuit than the Telegraph could ever afford.

    I'm not sure the entirety of the current decline in the Tory shares is down to the Owen Paterson saga though. The timing also lines up with fears over Covid.

    Lets not forget that the rise back in the Tory share earlier in the year was due to the success of the vaccines in getting us out of Covid. Then people started fearmongering over Omicron etc and restrictions coming back, that pissed all over the government's biggest success.

    Any government that is putting restrictions upon its people twelve months after vaccines became available has failed to manage Covid well. That includes the British government.

    Though frankly the devolved governments and our continental neighbours have all fared much worse it seems, so a rebound in the polls in the new year could be quite plausible as the vaccines again are shown to be a success and the fearmongering over restrictions is shown to be the bullshit it always was.

    Alternatively if restrictions are imposed, then Boris has to be ousted, no ifs, no buts.

    There is just no scintilla of an excuse to impose restrictions on the people over a year after vaccines became available. None whatsoever.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 35,025

    Seems to me that Johnson is an absolute moron with money

    You could have omitted the last two words easily and been more accurate.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 11,473
    edited December 2021

    HYUFD said:

    Would be basically 2010 in reverse on these figures, a hung parliament but Labour largest party and close to a majority with the LDs. Starmer as Cameron and Boris as Brown but Labour as largest party able to ignore the LDs.

    However considering the endless media attacks on partygate, which was more significant than Paterson in moving the polls, still no Labour majority even on this poll.

    Don't forget you have gerrymandered the constituency boundaries to help yourselves prevent a Labour majority.
    What are you talking about? The last boundary review was held under Labour.

    The current boundaries are decades out of date and the boundary review is being done by the independent Electoral Commission as always, no gerrymandering in sight.
    Then look harder. Look at which party chose the terms of the review, and its timing, and its dependence on the electoral register. A cunning wheeze which (I think) started here and was exported to America. Basically, if you make it appear that areas that favour your party have more voters than areas that favour your opponents, then your areas will have more constituencies allocated.

    The rot set in because Cameron and Osborne did not understand differential turnout so convinced themselves that Labour must be cheating. And if Labour is cheating then it is only fair to put a blue thumb on the scales.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    edited December 2021
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    When people make mistakes, there is one question. Was it a mistake that was obvious at the time? If not, then they should be allowed it. We all make mistakes, and it is sometimes better to be willing to make a decision and risk being wrong than hesitating and finding it's all gone to hell in a handcart anyway.

    This mistake was not only clearly a gargantuan clusterfuck at the time, it actually looks even worse with hindsight. It has literally destroyed Johnson's government and ended his career in spectacular fashion. It may have done significant damage to the party as a whole. It has shattered political unity at a moment when it had become important due to a renewed public health emergency.

    And all for Owen Paterson. An undistinguished former middle-ranking cabinet minister who was deep in the politics of the pork barrel and was not likely to stay in politics much longer anyway. Even if the theoretical aim was to protect Johnson or Patel, it was clearly never going to work.

    Sheer bloody madness. Johnson deserves every ounce of opprobrium he gets for it.

    Have a good morning.

    His mistake here was listening to Charles Moore, wasn't it? And why does he listen to an imbecile like Charles Moore? Because he needs the Telegraph pay check once again when his time in Number 10 is over to keep his wife in the style to which she expects to become accustomed.

    This is where Boris is most vulnerable. He needs money, lots of money to sustain his families and to live like his richer friends. It will be his downfall but probably not yet.
    Boris currently gets a town house in central London and a country stately home in Buckinghamshire rent free as PM plus chauffeur driven car and police escort everywhere.

    He would need to be earning millions on the lecture circuit to be able to buy that himself, far more than going back to being a scribbler at the Telegraph would pay. The longer he stays PM, the higher his value on the lecture circuit here and in the US
    Sorry but no.

    Boris’s value comes from tackling Brexit and Covid. The idea time for Boris to go if he wants to make maximise his money is before things start falling apart generally- which given the inflation that is about to hit is going to be sooner rather than ‘later.

    If Boris had any sense(and we know he doesn’t) he would be off early next year. Granted he won’t have been PM for very long but Brexi and Covid is more than any other PM has had to deal with since WW2.

    Oh and to prove the point how much has Cameron made post being a PM. losing the Brexit vote destroyed any chance of an annual lucrative lecture tour.
  • Seems to me that Johnson is an absolute moron
  • Can any of us even see Johnson recovering from all this? He looks haggard, unwell and with no passion for the job. Maybe a hairbrush would help.

    I cannot see a way back for him, indeed I would ask why should there be a way back

    My son said over Christmas that it all started to go wrong with Carrie whose ridiculous and lavish demands for their flat together with her love of partying should have had warning lights flashing

    While as a family we support Carrie's work in animal welfare it is simply unacceptable for her to have so much influence

    Furthermore, the idiotic chief whip and even more absurd JRM should have paid a very heavy price for the way that tried to gerrymander Paterson in an obscure and corrupt way, not only to save him but also put a fireguard around wallpapergate

    The country faces issues of a magnitude not seen seen WW2 and Boris is not the answer

    His mps must take action in the new year and not to delay until after May's elections
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    Canadian PM Trudeau says the Western nations must stand together against a China he says has been playing them off against each other

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1475189168942813196?s=20
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    When people make mistakes, there is one question. Was it a mistake that was obvious at the time? If not, then they should be allowed it. We all make mistakes, and it is sometimes better to be willing to make a decision and risk being wrong than hesitating and finding it's all gone to hell in a handcart anyway.

    This mistake was not only clearly a gargantuan clusterfuck at the time, it actually looks even worse with hindsight. It has literally destroyed Johnson's government and ended his career in spectacular fashion. It may have done significant damage to the party as a whole. It has shattered political unity at a moment when it had become important due to a renewed public health emergency.

    And all for Owen Paterson. An undistinguished former middle-ranking cabinet minister who was deep in the politics of the pork barrel and was not likely to stay in politics much longer anyway. Even if the theoretical aim was to protect Johnson or Patel, it was clearly never going to work.

    Sheer bloody madness. Johnson deserves every ounce of opprobrium he gets for it.

    Have a good morning.

    His mistake here was listening to Charles Moore, wasn't it? And why does he listen to an imbecile like Charles Moore? Because he needs the Telegraph pay check once again when his time in Number 10 is over to keep his wife in the style to which she expects to become accustomed.

    This is where Boris is most vulnerable. He needs money, lots of money to sustain his families and to live like his richer friends. It will be his downfall but probably not yet.
    Boris currently gets a town house in central London and a country stately home in Buckinghamshire rent free as PM plus chauffeur driven car and police escort everywhere.

    He would need to be earning millions on the lecture circuit to be able to buy that himself, far more than going back to being a scribbler at the Telegraph would pay. The longer he stays PM, the higher his value on the lecture circuit here and in the US
    But they are not his (the townhouse etc). I agree this is why he will try to hang on but they are not his and one day they will be gone.

    I actually have some sympathy for him about this. My kids went to private school and had friends whose parents were significantly richer than me. It gets difficult to keep up when they are off skiing, taking trips to London, staying in their holiday home etc. Boris is not poor but most of his social circle will have inherited vastly more than he will ever have. And his wife seems to have incredibly little insight into this as the decoration nonsense demonstrated all too well.
  • HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    When people make mistakes, there is one question. Was it a mistake that was obvious at the time? If not, then they should be allowed it. We all make mistakes, and it is sometimes better to be willing to make a decision and risk being wrong than hesitating and finding it's all gone to hell in a handcart anyway.

    This mistake was not only clearly a gargantuan clusterfuck at the time, it actually looks even worse with hindsight. It has literally destroyed Johnson's government and ended his career in spectacular fashion. It may have done significant damage to the party as a whole. It has shattered political unity at a moment when it had become important due to a renewed public health emergency.

    And all for Owen Paterson. An undistinguished former middle-ranking cabinet minister who was deep in the politics of the pork barrel and was not likely to stay in politics much longer anyway. Even if the theoretical aim was to protect Johnson or Patel, it was clearly never going to work.

    Sheer bloody madness. Johnson deserves every ounce of opprobrium he gets for it.

    Have a good morning.

    His mistake here was listening to Charles Moore, wasn't it? And why does he listen to an imbecile like Charles Moore? Because he needs the Telegraph pay check once again when his time in Number 10 is over to keep his wife in the style to which she expects to become accustomed.

    This is where Boris is most vulnerable. He needs money, lots of money to sustain his families and to live like his richer friends. It will be his downfall but probably not yet.
    Boris currently gets a town house in central London and a country stately home in Buckinghamshire rent free as PM plus chauffeur driven car and police escort everywhere.

    He would need to be earning millions on the lecture circuit to be able to buy that himself, far more than going back to being a scribbler at the Telegraph would pay. The longer he stays PM, the higher his value on the lecture circuit here and in the US
    Yes, up until he loses. That is why I think Boris will step down before he is ousted by his own side or defeated at the ballot box. He needs to leave the ring as a champion.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858
    HYUFD said:

    Will these polls encourage enough Tory red wallers to send their letters to Brady, that is the question.

    Not sure back to austerity with Sunak or ex Remainer Truss is going to get much swingback from the redwall.

    Better for Boris to keep on with the booster programme and try and avoid more restrictions
    They've got enough clout to ensure that one of their own makes the final two. Then over to you and your comrades to make the choice...
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    When people make mistakes, there is one question. Was it a mistake that was obvious at the time? If not, then they should be allowed it. We all make mistakes, and it is sometimes better to be willing to make a decision and risk being wrong than hesitating and finding it's all gone to hell in a handcart anyway.

    This mistake was not only clearly a gargantuan clusterfuck at the time, it actually looks even worse with hindsight. It has literally destroyed Johnson's government and ended his career in spectacular fashion. It may have done significant damage to the party as a whole. It has shattered political unity at a moment when it had become important due to a renewed public health emergency.

    And all for Owen Paterson. An undistinguished former middle-ranking cabinet minister who was deep in the politics of the pork barrel and was not likely to stay in politics much longer anyway. Even if the theoretical aim was to protect Johnson or Patel, it was clearly never going to work.

    Sheer bloody madness. Johnson deserves every ounce of opprobrium he gets for it.

    Have a good morning.

    His mistake here was listening to Charles Moore, wasn't it? And why does he listen to an imbecile like Charles Moore? Because he needs the Telegraph pay check once again when his time in Number 10 is over to keep his wife in the style to which she expects to become accustomed.

    This is where Boris is most vulnerable. He needs money, lots of money to sustain his families and to live like his richer friends. It will be his downfall but probably not yet.
    Boris currently gets a town house in central London and a country stately home in Buckinghamshire rent free as PM plus chauffeur driven car and police escort everywhere.

    He would need to be earning millions on the lecture circuit to be able to buy that himself, far more than going back to being a scribbler at the Telegraph would pay. The longer he stays PM, the higher his value on the lecture circuit here and in the US
    Yes, up until he loses. That is why I think Boris will step down before he is ousted by his own side or defeated at the ballot box. He needs to leave the ring as a champion.
    Boris isn’t clever enough to see that and Carrie is too blind to the trappings.

    Equally Boris now has no one to turn to for unbiased advice which is a problem.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited December 2021
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    When people make mistakes, there is one question. Was it a mistake that was obvious at the time? If not, then they should be allowed it. We all make mistakes, and it is sometimes better to be willing to make a decision and risk being wrong than hesitating and finding it's all gone to hell in a handcart anyway.

    This mistake was not only clearly a gargantuan clusterfuck at the time, it actually looks even worse with hindsight. It has literally destroyed Johnson's government and ended his career in spectacular fashion. It may have done significant damage to the party as a whole. It has shattered political unity at a moment when it had become important due to a renewed public health emergency.

    And all for Owen Paterson. An undistinguished former middle-ranking cabinet minister who was deep in the politics of the pork barrel and was not likely to stay in politics much longer anyway. Even if the theoretical aim was to protect Johnson or Patel, it was clearly never going to work.

    Sheer bloody madness. Johnson deserves every ounce of opprobrium he gets for it.

    Have a good morning.

    His mistake here was listening to Charles Moore, wasn't it? And why does he listen to an imbecile like Charles Moore? Because he needs the Telegraph pay check once again when his time in Number 10 is over to keep his wife in the style to which she expects to become accustomed.

    This is where Boris is most vulnerable. He needs money, lots of money to sustain his families and to live like his richer friends. It will be his downfall but probably not yet.
    Boris currently gets a town house in central London and a country stately home in Buckinghamshire rent free as PM plus chauffeur driven car and police escort everywhere.

    He would need to be earning millions on the lecture circuit to be able to buy that himself, far more than going back to being a scribbler at the Telegraph would pay. The longer he stays PM, the higher his value on the lecture circuit here and in the US
    But they are not his (the townhouse etc). I agree this is why he will try to hang on but they are not his and one day they will be gone.

    I actually have some sympathy for him about this. My kids went to private school and had friends whose parents were significantly richer than me. It gets difficult to keep up when they are off skiing, taking trips to London, staying in their holiday home etc. Boris is not poor but most of his social circle will have inherited vastly more than he will ever have. And his wife seems to have incredibly little insight into this as the decoration nonsense demonstrated all too well.
    Given he is now Catholic, he could save a few quid and do what Tony and Cherie Blair did and send his younger kids to the Roman Catholic London Oratory when of secondary school age. Still an excellent school, just state not Eton
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069
    HYUFD said:

    Canadian PM Trudeau says the Western nations must stand together against a China he says has been playing them off against each other

    https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1475189168942813196?s=20

    He's right. It is strategically important for the west that they onshore their manufacturing from China, that we break the dependency we have allowed to be created and that we keep China out of Taiwan until we can make our own chips. We have created a monster, something that makes the old Soviet Union look like a benevolent uncle who occasionally got drunk at weddings.
  • HYUFD said:

    Will these polls encourage enough Tory red wallers to send their letters to Brady, that is the question.

    Not sure back to austerity with Sunak or ex Remainer Truss is going to get much swingback from the redwall.

    Better for Boris to keep on with the booster programme and try and avoid more restrictions
    Boris is marching the party to an election disaster and you are so blinded or in denial to see what is staring you in the face
  • I wonder what happened to Balloon Johnson from the Hartlepool by-election
  • theProle said:

    eek said:

    ydoethur said:

    When people make mistakes, there is one question. Was it a mistake that was obvious at the time? If not, then they should be allowed it. We all make mistakes, and it is sometimes better to be willing to make a decision and risk being wrong than hesitating and finding it's all gone to hell in a handcart anyway.

    This mistake was not only clearly a gargantuan clusterfuck at the time, it actually looks even worse with hindsight. It has literally destroyed Johnson's government and ended his career in spectacular fashion. It may have done significant damage to the party as a whole. It has shattered political unity at a moment when it had become important due to a renewed public health emergency.

    And all for Owen Paterson. An undistinguished former middle-ranking cabinet minister who was deep in the politics of the pork barrel and was not likely to stay in politics much longer anyway. Even if the theoretical aim was to protect Johnson or Patel, it was clearly never going to work.

    Sheer bloody madness. Johnson deserves every ounce of opprobrium he gets for it.

    Have a good morning.

    But again you are looking at the actual case and not why was it suddenly so important to get things changed? One forthcoming case is clearly so bad that the disciplinary process needed to be changed in such a hurry that the Paterson case had to be used as the justification?

    The irony is that as soon as Boris leaves anyone sane is going to bin the hideous wallpaper immediately.

    If I was the next inhabitant of No10 I'd keep the wallpaper just because I'd chuckle about the stupidity of destroying a political career for the sake of something so hideous every time I saw it.
    I'd imagine the next PM will invite the cameras into the flat for an interview, incidentally showing off the wallpaper to a nation agog. Will it become an issue at the leadership election? Will JRM and Rishi be crying: "vote for me; I'm rich enough to buy my own bloody wallpaper"?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    When people make mistakes, there is one question. Was it a mistake that was obvious at the time? If not, then they should be allowed it. We all make mistakes, and it is sometimes better to be willing to make a decision and risk being wrong than hesitating and finding it's all gone to hell in a handcart anyway.

    This mistake was not only clearly a gargantuan clusterfuck at the time, it actually looks even worse with hindsight. It has literally destroyed Johnson's government and ended his career in spectacular fashion. It may have done significant damage to the party as a whole. It has shattered political unity at a moment when it had become important due to a renewed public health emergency.

    And all for Owen Paterson. An undistinguished former middle-ranking cabinet minister who was deep in the politics of the pork barrel and was not likely to stay in politics much longer anyway. Even if the theoretical aim was to protect Johnson or Patel, it was clearly never going to work.

    Sheer bloody madness. Johnson deserves every ounce of opprobrium he gets for it.

    Have a good morning.

    His mistake here was listening to Charles Moore, wasn't it? And why does he listen to an imbecile like Charles Moore? Because he needs the Telegraph pay check once again when his time in Number 10 is over to keep his wife in the style to which she expects to become accustomed.

    This is where Boris is most vulnerable. He needs money, lots of money to sustain his families and to live like his richer friends. It will be his downfall but probably not yet.
    Boris currently gets a town house in central London and a country stately home in Buckinghamshire rent free as PM plus chauffeur driven car and police escort everywhere.

    He would need to be earning millions on the lecture circuit to be able to buy that himself, far more than going back to being a scribbler at the Telegraph would pay. The longer he stays PM, the higher his value on the lecture circuit here and in the US
    What course will he lecture? Fuckwittery 101?
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 139

    Can any of us even see Johnson recovering from all this? He looks haggard, unwell and with no passion for the job. Maybe a hairbrush would help.

    I cannot see a way back for him, indeed I would ask why should there be a way back

    My son said over Christmas that it all started to go wrong with Carrie whose ridiculous and lavish demands for their flat together with her love of partying should have had warning lights flashing

    While as a family we support Carrie's work in animal welfare it is simply unacceptable for her to have so much influence

    Furthermore, the idiotic chief whip and even more absurd JRM should have paid a very heavy price for the way that tried to gerrymander Paterson in an obscure and corrupt way, not only to save him but also put a fireguard around wallpapergate

    The country faces issues of a magnitude not seen seen WW2 and Boris is not the answer

    His mps must take action in the new year and not to delay until after May's elections
    Is the relationship between the government and the governed fraying? The chants at the darts and on the football terraces, the voter no shows at the by-elections, mask disobedience, the big marches in London.

    Even if the government imposed indoor restrictions in the coming days you get the feeling there would be a thousand parties stacked full of revelers.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284

    HYUFD said:

    Will these polls encourage enough Tory red wallers to send their letters to Brady, that is the question.

    Not sure back to austerity with Sunak or ex Remainer Truss is going to get much swingback from the redwall.

    Better for Boris to keep on with the booster programme and try and avoid more restrictions
    They've got enough clout to ensure that one of their own makes the final two. Then over to you and your comrades to make the choice...
    May as well keep Boris unless it is Sunak in my view.

    Just as only David Miliband as leader might have made any difference to Labour if they had replaced Brown before the 2010 general election, so only Sunak would get any sustained bounce back from Starmer
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,287
    HYUFD said:

    Meanwhile Truss takes a narrow lead in the new ConservativeHome next Tory leader poll on 23% to 20% for Sunak.

    Steve Baker takes 3rd, tied with Penny Mordaunt on 8% each

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/12/our-next-tory-leader-survey-truss-leads-sunak-by-18-votes.html

    Who do you reckon would get it?

    Steve Baker look plausible to me, he's not tied to this shambles of a govt, and can go for the "let's get Covid done" vote.

    His backstory (evangelical Christian, ex RAF) also makes a neat contrast.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,150

    HYUFD said:

    Would be basically 2010 in reverse on these figures, a hung parliament but Labour largest party and close to a majority with the LDs. Starmer as Cameron and Boris as Brown but Labour as largest party able to ignore the LDs.

    However considering the endless media attacks on partygate, which was more significant than Paterson in moving the polls, still no Labour majority even on this poll.

    Don't forget you have gerrymandered the constituency boundaries to help yourselves prevent a Labour majority.
    What are you talking about? The last boundary review was held under Labour.

    The current boundaries are decades out of date and the boundary review is being done by the independent Electoral Commission as always, no gerrymandering in sight.
    Then look harder. Look at which party chose the terms of the review, and its timing, and its dependence on the electoral register. A cunning wheeze which (I think) started here and was exported to America. Basically, if you make it appear that areas that favour your party have more voters than areas that favour your opponents, then your areas will have more constituencies allocated.

    The rot set in because Cameron and Osborne did not understand differential turnout so convinced themselves that Labour must be cheating. And if Labour is cheating then it is only fair to put a blue thumb on the scales.
    To be fair, if they did it because they "didn't understand it", as opposed to "exploited general misunderstanding to bring in measures for party political gain", that would at least slightly mitigate against charges of gerrymandering. Although i suspect the former explanation is incorrect.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    When people make mistakes, there is one question. Was it a mistake that was obvious at the time? If not, then they should be allowed it. We all make mistakes, and it is sometimes better to be willing to make a decision and risk being wrong than hesitating and finding it's all gone to hell in a handcart anyway.

    This mistake was not only clearly a gargantuan clusterfuck at the time, it actually looks even worse with hindsight. It has literally destroyed Johnson's government and ended his career in spectacular fashion. It may have done significant damage to the party as a whole. It has shattered political unity at a moment when it had become important due to a renewed public health emergency.

    And all for Owen Paterson. An undistinguished former middle-ranking cabinet minister who was deep in the politics of the pork barrel and was not likely to stay in politics much longer anyway. Even if the theoretical aim was to protect Johnson or Patel, it was clearly never going to work.

    Sheer bloody madness. Johnson deserves every ounce of opprobrium he gets for it.

    Have a good morning.

    His mistake here was listening to Charles Moore, wasn't it? And why does he listen to an imbecile like Charles Moore? Because he needs the Telegraph pay check once again when his time in Number 10 is over to keep his wife in the style to which she expects to become accustomed.

    This is where Boris is most vulnerable. He needs money, lots of money to sustain his families and to live like his richer friends. It will be his downfall but probably not yet.
    Boris currently gets a town house in central London and a country stately home in Buckinghamshire rent free as PM plus chauffeur driven car and police escort everywhere.

    He would need to be earning millions on the lecture circuit to be able to buy that himself, far more than going back to being a scribbler at the Telegraph would pay. The longer he stays PM, the higher his value on the lecture circuit here and in the US
    Sorry but no.

    Boris’s value comes from tackling Brexit and Covid. The idea time for Boris to go if he wants to make maximise his money is before things start falling apart generally- which given the inflation that is about to hit is going to be sooner rather than ‘later.

    If Boris had any sense(and we know he doesn’t) he would be off early next year. Granted he won’t have been PM for very long but Brexi and Covid is more than any other PM has had to deal with since WW2.

    Oh and to prove the point how much has Cameron made post being a PM. losing the Brexit vote destroyed any chance of an annual lucrative lecture tour.
    David Cameron made up to £120,000 per speech on leaving No 10 after 6 years

    https://www.ft.com/content/889e5a6a-4443-11ea-abea-0c7a29cd66fe
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,094
    Very glad that politics is competitive. It’s entirely positive that the half of country that has no time for the Conservatives gets a look in.
  • TresTres Posts: 680
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    When people make mistakes, there is one question. Was it a mistake that was obvious at the time? If not, then they should be allowed it. We all make mistakes, and it is sometimes better to be willing to make a decision and risk being wrong than hesitating and finding it's all gone to hell in a handcart anyway.

    This mistake was not only clearly a gargantuan clusterfuck at the time, it actually looks even worse with hindsight. It has literally destroyed Johnson's government and ended his career in spectacular fashion. It may have done significant damage to the party as a whole. It has shattered political unity at a moment when it had become important due to a renewed public health emergency.

    And all for Owen Paterson. An undistinguished former middle-ranking cabinet minister who was deep in the politics of the pork barrel and was not likely to stay in politics much longer anyway. Even if the theoretical aim was to protect Johnson or Patel, it was clearly never going to work.

    Sheer bloody madness. Johnson deserves every ounce of opprobrium he gets for it.

    Have a good morning.

    His mistake here was listening to Charles Moore, wasn't it? And why does he listen to an imbecile like Charles Moore? Because he needs the Telegraph pay check once again when his time in Number 10 is over to keep his wife in the style to which she expects to become accustomed.

    This is where Boris is most vulnerable. He needs money, lots of money to sustain his families and to live like his richer friends. It will be his downfall but probably not yet.
    Boris currently gets a town house in central London and a country stately home in Buckinghamshire rent free as PM plus chauffeur driven car and police escort everywhere.

    He would need to be earning millions on the lecture circuit to be able to buy that himself, far more than going back to being a scribbler at the Telegraph would pay. The longer he stays PM, the higher his value on the lecture circuit here and in the US
    But they are not his (the townhouse etc). I agree this is why he will try to hang on but they are not his and one day they will be gone.

    I actually have some sympathy for him about this. My kids went to private school and had friends whose parents were significantly richer than me. It gets difficult to keep up when they are off skiing, taking trips to London, staying in their holiday home etc. Boris is not poor but most of his social circle will have inherited vastly more than he will ever have. And his wife seems to have incredibly little insight into this as the decoration nonsense demonstrated all too well.
    He'd have than enough money for his kids if he ever learnt not to treat the woman on his life like disposable objects.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    rkrkrk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Meanwhile Truss takes a narrow lead in the new ConservativeHome next Tory leader poll on 23% to 20% for Sunak.

    Steve Baker takes 3rd, tied with Penny Mordaunt on 8% each

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/12/our-next-tory-leader-survey-truss-leads-sunak-by-18-votes.html

    Who do you reckon would get it?

    Steve Baker look plausible to me, he's not tied to this shambles of a govt, and can go for the "let's get Covid done" vote.

    His backstory (evangelical Christian, ex RAF) also makes a neat contrast.
    A final 2 of Sunak or Truss v Baker could see Baker edge it but more likely Baker is a possible future Conservative Leader of the Opposition, he would probably not make the runoff this time
  • rkrkrk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Meanwhile Truss takes a narrow lead in the new ConservativeHome next Tory leader poll on 23% to 20% for Sunak.

    Steve Baker takes 3rd, tied with Penny Mordaunt on 8% each

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/12/our-next-tory-leader-survey-truss-leads-sunak-by-18-votes.html

    Who do you reckon would get it?

    Steve Baker look plausible to me, he's not tied to this shambles of a govt, and can go for the "let's get Covid done" vote.

    His backstory (evangelical Christian, ex RAF) also makes a neat contrast.
    Nah, his majority makes it impossible, no way are the Tories electing someone whose seat was at risk even before the recent polling changes, particularly a seat that vote Remain in 2016.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,287


    I would have thought an ex-PM really ought to be able to make much, much more money on the lecture/speech circuit than the Telegraph could ever afford.

    His telegraph column was £250k for a mornings work. Easy money that didn't interfere with evening socialising. Probably can double that after being PM.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284

    HYUFD said:

    Will these polls encourage enough Tory red wallers to send their letters to Brady, that is the question.

    Not sure back to austerity with Sunak or ex Remainer Truss is going to get much swingback from the redwall.

    Better for Boris to keep on with the booster programme and try and avoid more restrictions
    Boris is marching the party to an election disaster and you are so blinded or in denial to see what is staring you in the face
    After 10 years in power most parties normally lose a general election.

    The only exception was John Major in 1992 but he then led the Tories to a landslide defeat in 1997.

    Even this poll still sees only a hung parliament not even a Labour majority against Boris. In 1992 remember most of the final polls also had Kinnock winning most seats in a hung parliament as this poll shows Starmer doing
  • MISTY said:

    Can any of us even see Johnson recovering from all this? He looks haggard, unwell and with no passion for the job. Maybe a hairbrush would help.

    I cannot see a way back for him, indeed I would ask why should there be a way back

    My son said over Christmas that it all started to go wrong with Carrie whose ridiculous and lavish demands for their flat together with her love of partying should have had warning lights flashing

    While as a family we support Carrie's work in animal welfare it is simply unacceptable for her to have so much influence

    Furthermore, the idiotic chief whip and even more absurd JRM should have paid a very heavy price for the way that tried to gerrymander Paterson in an obscure and corrupt way, not only to save him but also put a fireguard around wallpapergate

    The country faces issues of a magnitude not seen seen WW2 and Boris is not the answer

    His mps must take action in the new year and not to delay until after May's elections
    Is the relationship between the government and the governed fraying? The chants at the darts and on the football terraces, the voter no shows at the by-elections, mask disobedience, the big marches in London.

    Even if the government imposed indoor restrictions in the coming days you get the feeling there would be a thousand parties stacked full of revelers.
    Here in Wales we have a Government who delights in regulations even making going into the office a criminal offence
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    When people make mistakes, there is one question. Was it a mistake that was obvious at the time? If not, then they should be allowed it. We all make mistakes, and it is sometimes better to be willing to make a decision and risk being wrong than hesitating and finding it's all gone to hell in a handcart anyway.

    This mistake was not only clearly a gargantuan clusterfuck at the time, it actually looks even worse with hindsight. It has literally destroyed Johnson's government and ended his career in spectacular fashion. It may have done significant damage to the party as a whole. It has shattered political unity at a moment when it had become important due to a renewed public health emergency.

    And all for Owen Paterson. An undistinguished former middle-ranking cabinet minister who was deep in the politics of the pork barrel and was not likely to stay in politics much longer anyway. Even if the theoretical aim was to protect Johnson or Patel, it was clearly never going to work.

    Sheer bloody madness. Johnson deserves every ounce of opprobrium he gets for it.

    Have a good morning.

    His mistake here was listening to Charles Moore, wasn't it? And why does he listen to an imbecile like Charles Moore? Because he needs the Telegraph pay check once again when his time in Number 10 is over to keep his wife in the style to which she expects to become accustomed.

    This is where Boris is most vulnerable. He needs money, lots of money to sustain his families and to live like his richer friends. It will be his downfall but probably not yet.
    Boris currently gets a town house in central London and a country stately home in Buckinghamshire rent free as PM plus chauffeur driven car and police escort everywhere.

    He would need to be earning millions on the lecture circuit to be able to buy that himself, far more than going back to being a scribbler at the Telegraph would pay. The longer he stays PM, the higher his value on the lecture circuit here and in the US
    Yes, up until he loses. That is why I think Boris will step down before he is ousted by his own side or defeated at the ballot box. He needs to leave the ring as a champion.
    Boris isn’t clever enough to see that and Carrie is too blind to the trappings.

    Equally Boris now has no one to turn to for unbiased advice which is a problem.
    It’s a massive problem. No-one wants to be his senior policy guy, because the actual policy will be decided by pillow talk.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,511

    If only somebody could have foreseen this, sleaze is utterly toxic for the Tories, who knew?

    Big shout out for the gullible idiots who parroted the line that Paterson had no appellate process available, something Boris Johnson finally admitted was bollocks at the liaison committee.

    I do hope you're not referring to any of the 'gullible idiots' on PB who parroted this line because they couldn't be bothered to read the actual Standards Committee Report which, as it happens, contains the various appeals that Paterson made throughout the process, and the Committee's findings on those appeals?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069
    rkrkrk said:


    I would have thought an ex-PM really ought to be able to make much, much more money on the lecture/speech circuit than the Telegraph could ever afford.

    His telegraph column was £250k for a mornings work. Easy money that didn't interfere with evening socialising. Probably can double that after being PM.
    Yes, I think people grossly exaggerate the earing capacity of lecture circuits. Boris will do better than most because he is genuinely entertaining but its a pretty short term option as the novelty wears off.
  • HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Meanwhile Truss takes a narrow lead in the new ConservativeHome next Tory leader poll on 23% to 20% for Sunak.

    Steve Baker takes 3rd, tied with Penny Mordaunt on 8% each

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/12/our-next-tory-leader-survey-truss-leads-sunak-by-18-votes.html

    Who do you reckon would get it?

    Steve Baker look plausible to me, he's not tied to this shambles of a govt, and can go for the "let's get Covid done" vote.

    His backstory (evangelical Christian, ex RAF) also makes a neat contrast.
    A final 2 of Sunak or Truss v Baker could see Baker edge it but more likely Baker is a possible future Conservative Leader of the Opposition, he would probably not make the runoff this time
    If the Tories go into opposition, it means Baker would probably lose his seat.
  • It has come at a cost, but remember what Patterson was about - the defenestration of the independent standards commissioner and the entire process. He knows fully well just how deep in the shit he is mired, and needed to kill off the ability of outsiders to discover the truth.

    He and his party have taken a kicking, but it is nothing compared to what is to come when flatgate gets fully exposed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited December 2021
    rkrkrk said:


    I would have thought an ex-PM really ought to be able to make much, much more money on the lecture/speech circuit than the Telegraph could ever afford.

    His telegraph column was £250k for a mornings work. Easy money that didn't interfere with evening socialising. Probably can double that after being PM.
    That is £250k per year, not £250k per speech which a longterm PM could command on the lecture circuit.

    Blair and Thatcher made even more than that per speech, especially in the US.

    Plus going back to being a columnist loses Boris the central London townhouse, country mansion, car and police escort and flights he now enjoys rent free
  • If only somebody could have foreseen this, sleaze is utterly toxic for the Tories, who knew?

    Big shout out for the gullible idiots who parroted the line that Paterson had no appellate process available, something Boris Johnson finally admitted was bollocks at the liaison committee.

    I do hope you're not referring to any of the 'gullible idiots' on PB who parroted this line because they couldn't be bothered to read the actual Standards Committee Report which, as it happens, contains the various appeals that Paterson made throughout the process, and the Committee's findings on those appeals?
    *Innocent face*
  • HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    When people make mistakes, there is one question. Was it a mistake that was obvious at the time? If not, then they should be allowed it. We all make mistakes, and it is sometimes better to be willing to make a decision and risk being wrong than hesitating and finding it's all gone to hell in a handcart anyway.

    This mistake was not only clearly a gargantuan clusterfuck at the time, it actually looks even worse with hindsight. It has literally destroyed Johnson's government and ended his career in spectacular fashion. It may have done significant damage to the party as a whole. It has shattered political unity at a moment when it had become important due to a renewed public health emergency.

    And all for Owen Paterson. An undistinguished former middle-ranking cabinet minister who was deep in the politics of the pork barrel and was not likely to stay in politics much longer anyway. Even if the theoretical aim was to protect Johnson or Patel, it was clearly never going to work.

    Sheer bloody madness. Johnson deserves every ounce of opprobrium he gets for it.

    Have a good morning.

    His mistake here was listening to Charles Moore, wasn't it? And why does he listen to an imbecile like Charles Moore? Because he needs the Telegraph pay check once again when his time in Number 10 is over to keep his wife in the style to which she expects to become accustomed.

    This is where Boris is most vulnerable. He needs money, lots of money to sustain his families and to live like his richer friends. It will be his downfall but probably not yet.
    Boris currently gets a town house in central London and a country stately home in Buckinghamshire rent free as PM plus chauffeur driven car and police escort everywhere.

    He would need to be earning millions on the lecture circuit to be able to buy that himself, far more than going back to being a scribbler at the Telegraph would pay. The longer he stays PM, the higher his value on the lecture circuit here and in the US
    What course will he lecture? Fuckwittery 101?
    I'd expect Boris will be signed up by a rich American university as what they call a moosehead professor: no real duties; for display purposes only. He could lecture an introductory class on politics, classics, even creative writing. Easily combined with the Telegraph column, the lecture circuit and even a return to television.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 15,858
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Will these polls encourage enough Tory red wallers to send their letters to Brady, that is the question.

    Not sure back to austerity with Sunak or ex Remainer Truss is going to get much swingback from the redwall.

    Better for Boris to keep on with the booster programme and try and avoid more restrictions
    They've got enough clout to ensure that one of their own makes the final two. Then over to you and your comrades to make the choice...
    May as well keep Boris unless it is Sunak in my view.

    Just as only David Miliband as leader might have made any difference to Labour if they had replaced Brown before the 2010 general election, so only Sunak would get any sustained bounce back from Starmer
    Hold on. You just said 'Not sure back to austerity with Sunak or ex Remainer Truss is going to get much swingback from the redwall.'

    So where is the Sunak bounce coming from? Surbiton?
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710



    Any government that is putting restrictions upon its people twelve months after vaccines became available has failed to manage Covid well. That includes the British government.

    We either needed to impose things as soon as omicron arrived or waited until the problem became obvious.

    Boris and co have done neither. Now granted, we are in a very privileged position where thanks to this site we probably know more than everyone outside of a few select circles but the current lockdown clearly serves no purpose beyond navel gazing / point scoring. it’s going to be interesting to see the impact in Scotland and wales as they are subject to restrictions where England isn’t.

    (NI is different as they do need to look at what Ireland is doing as well England.)
  • DavidL said:

    rkrkrk said:


    I would have thought an ex-PM really ought to be able to make much, much more money on the lecture/speech circuit than the Telegraph could ever afford.

    His telegraph column was £250k for a mornings work. Easy money that didn't interfere with evening socialising. Probably can double that after being PM.
    Yes, I think people grossly exaggerate the earing capacity of lecture circuits. Boris will do better than most because he is genuinely entertaining but its a pretty short term option as the novelty wears off.
    The other major problem for Boris Johnson is that it is rumoured that his ex wife took him to the cleaners during the divorce and gets 50% of his future income.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Will these polls encourage enough Tory red wallers to send their letters to Brady, that is the question.

    Not sure back to austerity with Sunak or ex Remainer Truss is going to get much swingback from the redwall.

    Better for Boris to keep on with the booster programme and try and avoid more restrictions
    Boris is marching the party to an election disaster and you are so blinded or in denial to see what is staring you in the face
    After 10 years in power most parties normally lose a general election.

    The only exception was John Major in 1992 but he then led the Tories to a landslide defeat in 1997.

    Even this poll still sees only a hung parliament not even a Labour majority against Boris. In 1992 remember most of the final polls also had Kinnock winning most seats in a hung parliament as this poll shows Starmer doing
    You do not get it
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 36,074
    edited December 2021
    DavidL said:

    rkrkrk said:


    I would have thought an ex-PM really ought to be able to make much, much more money on the lecture/speech circuit than the Telegraph could ever afford.

    His telegraph column was £250k for a mornings work. Easy money that didn't interfere with evening socialising. Probably can double that after being PM.
    Yes, I think people grossly exaggerate the earing capacity of lecture circuits. Boris will do better than most because he is genuinely entertaining but its a pretty short term option as the novelty wears off.
    Theresa May declared £1.8m in speaking fees in 2019 and 2020, earned more than any other MP. That’s not a bad gig if you can get it.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/ex-uk-pm-theresa-may-earned-1861776-since-quitting-2021-7?op=1
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    56 seats is a big hit for the Tories to take over problems with just one MP.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,150
    I think i commented a couple of days ago that Labour shouldn't get too complacent about the polling because they didn't appear to have done too much to have earned their current position - which meant that they were mainly a consequence of current Government unpopularity/mid-term blues and which history shows could quite likely be turned around as the focus became more on the election and the choices placed in front of the electorate.

    A counter to that (at least as far as the Johnson Govt is concerned) is that traditionally Government unpopularity in mid term is a consequence of "tough but necessary" measures generally taken in the early years of Government. Which, presuming things improve later, gives a clear message to be taken to the electorate of having taken those tough decisions for the good of the country and we are in a better position for it.

    When so much of the current Governments woes are self inflicted (and i'm leaving out general Brexit and Covid policy (not the "party" stuff obviously) out of this - which i think retain the potential to help them in future) however, they lack that message to sell. So they clearly need a complete Government overhaul as a minimum - and they still need a lot more than that (even if Brexit/Covid improves) the economic clouds on the horizon are hardly propipitious...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    edited December 2021

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Meanwhile Truss takes a narrow lead in the new ConservativeHome next Tory leader poll on 23% to 20% for Sunak.

    Steve Baker takes 3rd, tied with Penny Mordaunt on 8% each

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/12/our-next-tory-leader-survey-truss-leads-sunak-by-18-votes.html

    Who do you reckon would get it?

    Steve Baker look plausible to me, he's not tied to this shambles of a govt, and can go for the "let's get Covid done" vote.

    His backstory (evangelical Christian, ex RAF) also makes a neat contrast.
    A final 2 of Sunak or Truss v Baker could see Baker edge it but more likely Baker is a possible future Conservative Leader of the Opposition, he would probably not make the runoff this time
    If the Tories go into opposition, it means Baker would probably lose his seat.
    Possibly but then so did Portillo and he was back in a by election in a safe Tory seat within 2 years and a candidate for leader again in 4 years
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,150
    edited December 2021
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Meanwhile Truss takes a narrow lead in the new ConservativeHome next Tory leader poll on 23% to 20% for Sunak.

    Steve Baker takes 3rd, tied with Penny Mordaunt on 8% each

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/12/our-next-tory-leader-survey-truss-leads-sunak-by-18-votes.html

    Who do you reckon would get it?

    Steve Baker look plausible to me, he's not tied to this shambles of a govt, and can go for the "let's get Covid done" vote.

    His backstory (evangelical Christian, ex RAF) also makes a neat contrast.
    A final 2 of Sunak or Truss v Baker could see Baker edge it but more likely Baker is a possible future Conservative Leader of the Opposition, he would probably not make the runoff this time
    If the Tories go into opposition, it means Baker would probably lose his seat.
    Possibly but then so did Portillo and he was back in a by election in a safe Tory seat within 2 years and a candidate for leader again in 4 years
    Bit different - he was seen as a major player/likely leader before losing his seat - and went through a complete political makeover before commencing his comeback. And launched his campaign from the heart of the existing establishment as Shadow chancellor.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Will these polls encourage enough Tory red wallers to send their letters to Brady, that is the question.

    Not sure back to austerity with Sunak or ex Remainer Truss is going to get much swingback from the redwall.

    Better for Boris to keep on with the booster programme and try and avoid more restrictions
    Boris is marching the party to an election disaster and you are so blinded or in denial to see what is staring you in the face
    After 10 years in power most parties normally lose a general election.

    The only exception was John Major in 1992 but he then led the Tories to a landslide defeat in 1997.

    Even this poll still sees only a hung parliament not even a Labour majority against Boris. In 1992 remember most of the final polls also had Kinnock winning most seats in a hung parliament as this poll shows Starmer doing
    You do not get it
    Clearly you don't.

    The only alternative leader to Boris who might get a bounce v Starmer is Sunak and on today's ConservativeHome survey Sunak would not even win the Tory membership vote, albeit only a narrow loss
  • .
    DavidL said:

    rkrkrk said:


    I would have thought an ex-PM really ought to be able to make much, much more money on the lecture/speech circuit than the Telegraph could ever afford.

    His telegraph column was £250k for a mornings work. Easy money that didn't interfere with evening socialising. Probably can double that after being PM.
    Yes, I think people grossly exaggerate the earing capacity of lecture circuits. Boris will do better than most because he is genuinely entertaining but its a pretty short term option as the novelty wears off.
    If Theresa May can earn millions from speeches etc then I think we're grossly underestimating it if anything.

    Boris has the advantage Blair had of being known in America too.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 13,757

    HYUFD said:

    Would be basically 2010 in reverse on these figures, a hung parliament but Labour largest party and close to a majority with the LDs. Starmer as Cameron and Boris as Brown but Labour as largest party able to ignore the LDs.

    However considering the endless media attacks on partygate, which was more significant than Paterson in moving the polls, still no Labour majority even on this poll.

    Don't forget you have gerrymandered the constituency boundaries to help yourselves prevent a Labour majority.
    What are you talking about? The last boundary review was held under Labour.

    The current boundaries are decades out of date and the boundary review is being done by the independent Electoral Commission as always, no gerrymandering in sight.
    The next one isn't and it stands to benefit the already advantaged Conservative Party. The unfair Labour advantage of GE2005 was a very long time ago!

    HYUFD takes much comfort from the Tories ahead by circa 40 seats at level pegging on points and level pegging on seats when Labour are 3 points ahead ( on new boundaries).

    But of course you would call it efficiency of votes.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Will these polls encourage enough Tory red wallers to send their letters to Brady, that is the question.

    Not sure back to austerity with Sunak or ex Remainer Truss is going to get much swingback from the redwall.

    Better for Boris to keep on with the booster programme and try and avoid more restrictions
    They've got enough clout to ensure that one of their own makes the final two. Then over to you and your comrades to make the choice...
    May as well keep Boris unless it is Sunak in my view.

    Just as only David Miliband as leader might have made any difference to Labour if they had replaced Brown before the 2010 general election, so only Sunak would get any sustained bounce back from Starmer
    I've never understood Labour's fascination with David Miliband. He spoke like a policy wonk, spewing out impenetrable jargon in a manner that made Keir Starmer sound like Winston Churchill. He'd have had no appeal to the average voter imo.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Will these polls encourage enough Tory red wallers to send their letters to Brady, that is the question.

    Not sure back to austerity with Sunak or ex Remainer Truss is going to get much swingback from the redwall.

    Better for Boris to keep on with the booster programme and try and avoid more restrictions
    They've got enough clout to ensure that one of their own makes the final two. Then over to you and your comrades to make the choice...
    May as well keep Boris unless it is Sunak in my view.

    Just as only David Miliband as leader might have made any difference to Labour if they had replaced Brown before the 2010 general election, so only Sunak would get any sustained bounce back from Starmer
    Hold on. You just said 'Not sure back to austerity with Sunak or ex Remainer Truss is going to get much swingback from the redwall.'

    So where is the Sunak bounce coming from? Surbiton?
    The Cameron coalition of 2015, Sunak is the only Tory leadership contender with higher net favourables than Starmer amongst the public
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710

    DavidL said:

    rkrkrk said:


    I would have thought an ex-PM really ought to be able to make much, much more money on the lecture/speech circuit than the Telegraph could ever afford.

    His telegraph column was £250k for a mornings work. Easy money that didn't interfere with evening socialising. Probably can double that after being PM.
    Yes, I think people grossly exaggerate the earing capacity of lecture circuits. Boris will do better than most because he is genuinely entertaining but its a pretty short term option as the novelty wears off.
    The other major problem for Boris Johnson is that it is rumoured that his ex wife took him to the cleaners during the divorce and gets 50% of his future income.
    image

    Was Boris representing himself as it takes a particularly bad performance to get that sort of judgment in this day and age

  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,150

    DavidL said:

    rkrkrk said:


    I would have thought an ex-PM really ought to be able to make much, much more money on the lecture/speech circuit than the Telegraph could ever afford.

    His telegraph column was £250k for a mornings work. Easy money that didn't interfere with evening socialising. Probably can double that after being PM.
    Yes, I think people grossly exaggerate the earing capacity of lecture circuits. Boris will do better than most because he is genuinely entertaining but its a pretty short term option as the novelty wears off.
    The other major problem for Boris Johnson is that it is rumoured that his ex wife took him to the cleaners during the divorce and gets 50% of his future income.
    Which one?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,287
    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:


    I would have thought an ex-PM really ought to be able to make much, much more money on the lecture/speech circuit than the Telegraph could ever afford.

    His telegraph column was £250k for a mornings work. Easy money that didn't interfere with evening socialising. Probably can double that after being PM.
    That is £250k per year, not £250k per speech which a longterm PM could command on the lecture circuit.

    Blair and Thatcher made even more than that per speech, especially in the US.

    Plus going back to being a columnist loses Boris the central London townhouse, country mansion, car and police escort and flights he now enjoys rent free
    Wow just Googled and yeah you're right, some people will pay that much. Incredible. I don't know how important it is to be PM for a long time to achieve that though.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 41,069
    alex_ said:

    So Scotland's new restrictions are officially in place to "target spread of omicron whilst booster vaccinations continue to be rolled out". To be reviewed after 3 weeks.

    Noting:
    - to date there is not much, if any, evidence that booster vaccinations offer much additional protection (over those already vaccinated) against serious outcomes (albeit there may be some limited effect to the extent that boosters might prevent infection in some people)
    - the booster programme is increasingly concentrated in those age groups not to date perceived as being overly susceptible to serious illness
    - but, early evidence is that boosters begin to wain in their effectiveness (in contracting infection - to the extent that they offer protection against omicron anyway) from a period of 6-10 weeks. So for a very significant percentage of the population (particularly the older/more vulnerable population) will be back (arguably for many are already back) to double dose levels of protection by the end of the current period of restrictions
    - fortunately, as above, this may be sufficient for combatting serious illness
    - the booster programme is not a "business as usual" operation, but is diverting significant funds and NHS resources towards its delivery*
    - even if the restrictions are vaguely successful in having some impact on spread of omicron, what reasons are there not to expect the next few months to be dominated by rolling waves of infection (beyond everyone just getting infected anyway? - which if its going to happen doesn't provide justification for economically damaging restrictions to facilitate ongoing (and possibly repeated) booster programmes)
    - when, and how does this ever end? What triggers are going to facilitate a rolling back of mass testing and requirement/need to isolate, particularly for asymptomatic people?

    *i wonder how many of those generously offering their time as volunteers would be quite so generous if they knew how much some people are making off the back of their contributions

    The booster program will have saved thousands of lives in the current wave but I certainly agree it is extremely disappointing that its effects seem so short term.

    Sturgeon has perhaps failed to see the end of the rope that Boris (with more than a little help from his cabinet) has. People are sick to the back teeth with restrictions, things being cancelled and not living normally. Sturgeon is risking drifting from mother of the nation status to a total pain in the neck destroying business and stopping younger and less at risk people enjoying themselves. Her stopping crowds at football matches has gone down particularly badly.
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    edited December 2021
    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:


    I would have thought an ex-PM really ought to be able to make much, much more money on the lecture/speech circuit than the Telegraph could ever afford.

    His telegraph column was £250k for a mornings work. Easy money that didn't interfere with evening socialising. Probably can double that after being PM.
    That is £250k per year, not £250k per speech which a longterm PM could command on the lecture circuit.

    Blair and Thatcher made even more than that per speech, especially in the US.

    Plus going back to being a columnist loses Boris the central London townhouse, country mansion, car and police escort and flights he now enjoys rent free
    How much does Cameron get per speech?

    As I stated Cameron is damaged goods due to losing the Brexit vote. Boris risks the same so he is best off leaving asap but without anyone to guide him he won’t see that (most people guiding him want Boris to remain PM, as they can profit from him being there).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    alex_ said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Meanwhile Truss takes a narrow lead in the new ConservativeHome next Tory leader poll on 23% to 20% for Sunak.

    Steve Baker takes 3rd, tied with Penny Mordaunt on 8% each

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/12/our-next-tory-leader-survey-truss-leads-sunak-by-18-votes.html

    Who do you reckon would get it?

    Steve Baker look plausible to me, he's not tied to this shambles of a govt, and can go for the "let's get Covid done" vote.

    His backstory (evangelical Christian, ex RAF) also makes a neat contrast.
    A final 2 of Sunak or Truss v Baker could see Baker edge it but more likely Baker is a possible future Conservative Leader of the Opposition, he would probably not make the runoff this time
    If the Tories go into opposition, it means Baker would probably lose his seat.
    Possibly but then so did Portillo and he was back in a by election in a safe Tory seat within 2 years and a candidate for leader again in 4 years
    Bit different - he was seen as a major player/likely leader before losing his seat - and went through a complete political makeover before commencing his comeback. And launched his campaign from the heart of the existing establishment as Shadow chancellor.
    But lost the leadership to IDS and Baker is more IDS than Portillo. Sunak is more Portillo
  • HYUFD said:

    Would be basically 2010 in reverse on these figures, a hung parliament but Labour largest party and close to a majority with the LDs. Starmer as Cameron and Boris as Brown but Labour as largest party able to ignore the LDs.

    However considering the endless media attacks on partygate, which was more significant than Paterson in moving the polls, still no Labour majority even on this poll.

    Don't forget you have gerrymandered the constituency boundaries to help yourselves prevent a Labour majority.
    What are you talking about? The last boundary review was held under Labour.

    The current boundaries are decades out of date and the boundary review is being done by the independent Electoral Commission as always, no gerrymandering in sight.
    The next one isn't and it stands to benefit the already advantaged Conservative Party. The unfair Labour advantage of GE2005 was a very long time ago!

    HYUFD takes much comfort from the Tories ahead by circa 40 seats at level pegging on points and level pegging on seats when Labour are 3 points ahead ( on new boundaries).

    But of course you would call it efficiency of votes.
    You forget that the SNP hold many erstwhile Labour seats and they're not going to offer the Conservatives their support.

    So yes it is efficiency of votes. If Labour regained their former Scottish seats then suddenly we'd be looking at a more efficient Labour distribution of seats but not change the Conservative seat tally at all.
  • .

    DavidL said:

    rkrkrk said:


    I would have thought an ex-PM really ought to be able to make much, much more money on the lecture/speech circuit than the Telegraph could ever afford.

    His telegraph column was £250k for a mornings work. Easy money that didn't interfere with evening socialising. Probably can double that after being PM.
    Yes, I think people grossly exaggerate the earing capacity of lecture circuits. Boris will do better than most because he is genuinely entertaining but its a pretty short term option as the novelty wears off.
    If Theresa May can earn millions from speeches etc then I think we're grossly underestimating it if anything.

    Boris has the advantage Blair had of being known in America too.
    Theresa May takes it seriously. Boris would not be invited back after another Peppa Pig performance. May also dresses the part; remember the criticism from China after Boris's shambolic appearance at the Beijing Olympics?
  • eekeek Posts: 17,710
    rkrkrk said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:


    I would have thought an ex-PM really ought to be able to make much, much more money on the lecture/speech circuit than the Telegraph could ever afford.

    His telegraph column was £250k for a mornings work. Easy money that didn't interfere with evening socialising. Probably can double that after being PM.
    That is £250k per year, not £250k per speech which a longterm PM could command on the lecture circuit.

    Blair and Thatcher made even more than that per speech, especially in the US.

    Plus going back to being a columnist loses Boris the central London townhouse, country mansion, car and police escort and flights he now enjoys rent free
    Wow just Googled and yeah you're right, some people will pay that much. Incredible. I don't know how important it is to be PM for a long time to achieve that though.
    It’s not the money comes from the experiences you have. Which is probably why May earns more than Cameron (although that does mitigate my comment below slightly).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 93,284
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    rkrkrk said:


    I would have thought an ex-PM really ought to be able to make much, much more money on the lecture/speech circuit than the Telegraph could ever afford.

    His telegraph column was £250k for a mornings work. Easy money that didn't interfere with evening socialising. Probably can double that after being PM.
    That is £250k per year, not £250k per speech which a longterm PM could command on the lecture circuit.

    Blair and Thatcher made even more than that per speech, especially in the US.

    Plus going back to being a columnist loses Boris the central London townhouse, country mansion, car and police escort and flights he now enjoys rent free
    How much does Cameron get per speech?

    As I stated Cameron is damaged goods due to losing the Brexit vote. Boris risks the same so he is best off leaving asap but without anyone to guide him he won’t see that (most people guiding him want Boris to remain PM, as they can profit from him being there).
    As I already posted Cameron got £120,000 per speech on leaving No 10


  • What course will he lecture? Fuckwittery 101?

    Well he has already excelled on Fuck Whitty 101so I suppose its a natural progression
  • eek said:

    DavidL said:

    rkrkrk said:


    I would have thought an ex-PM really ought to be able to make much, much more money on the lecture/speech circuit than the Telegraph could ever afford.

    His telegraph column was £250k for a mornings work. Easy money that didn't interfere with evening socialising. Probably can double that after being PM.
    Yes, I think people grossly exaggerate the earing capacity of lecture circuits. Boris will do better than most because he is genuinely entertaining but its a pretty short term option as the novelty wears off.
    The other major problem for Boris Johnson is that it is rumoured that his ex wife took him to the cleaners during the divorce and gets 50% of his future income.
    image

    Was Boris representing himself as it takes a particularly bad performance to get that sort of judgment in this day and age

    She's a Cambridge educated barrister and he's Boris Johnson, he probably couldn't afford a decent legal team or be arsed to organise one.

    I think it was Andrew Gimson, a friend of Boris and Marina Wheeler, who said during their 25 year plus marriage it was Marina Wheeler who brought in all the money for the house and family.

    Add in the fact he's been paying child support to Helen MacIntyre for over a decade of that marriage and the fact Ken Livingstone helped confirmed Boris Johnson is famously financially disorganised it isn't surprising the judge sided with Marina Wheeler.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Will these polls encourage enough Tory red wallers to send their letters to Brady, that is the question.

    Not sure back to austerity with Sunak or ex Remainer Truss is going to get much swingback from the redwall.

    Better for Boris to keep on with the booster programme and try and avoid more restrictions
    Boris is marching the party to an election disaster and you are so blinded or in denial to see what is staring you in the face
    After 10 years in power most parties normally lose a general election.

    The only exception was John Major in 1992 but he then led the Tories to a landslide defeat in 1997.

    Even this poll still sees only a hung parliament not even a Labour majority against Boris. In 1992 remember most of the final polls also had Kinnock winning most seats in a hung parliament as this poll shows Starmer doing
    You do not get it
    Clearly you don't.

    The only alternative leader to Boris who might get a bounce v Starmer is Sunak and on today's ConservativeHome survey Sunak would not even win the Tory membership vote, albeit only a narrow loss
    The vast majority of voters are decent law abiding citizens and in Boris they see the 'one rule for them one rule for us' playing out every day from Paterson through wallpapergate, partygate to sleaze and say 'be gone'

    Until you understand that simple fact, and be mindful how quickly Ratner trashed his brand you should take stock and as a conservative accept you have a responsibility to change the perception, and that cannot start with Boris in no10
  • alex_ said:

    DavidL said:

    rkrkrk said:


    I would have thought an ex-PM really ought to be able to make much, much more money on the lecture/speech circuit than the Telegraph could ever afford.

    His telegraph column was £250k for a mornings work. Easy money that didn't interfere with evening socialising. Probably can double that after being PM.
    Yes, I think people grossly exaggerate the earing capacity of lecture circuits. Boris will do better than most because he is genuinely entertaining but its a pretty short term option as the novelty wears off.
    The other major problem for Boris Johnson is that it is rumoured that his ex wife took him to the cleaners during the divorce and gets 50% of his future income.
    Which one?
    Marina Wheeler.
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