Categories
Counting the cost of trying to save Owen Paterson – politicalbetting.com
Counting the cost of trying to save Owen Paterson – politicalbetting.com
New research and MRP analysis on voting behaviour and standards conducted on behalf of 38 Degrees by Survation in conjunction with Professor Christopher Hanretty of Royal Holloway University has found that the Conservative majority won in 2019 could disappear, should the current voting trend continue. The projections result in a hung Parliament, with Labour the largest party by a significant margin.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
However considering the endless media attacks on partygate, which was more significant than Paterson in moving the polls, still no Labour majority even on this poll.
FPT: Indoor hog roast? Ye Gods.
If it's a Gospel Hall, they will be quite happy with the absence of most of the ceremony.
Steve Baker takes 3rd, tied with Penny Mordaunt on 8% each
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2021/12/our-next-tory-leader-survey-truss-leads-sunak-by-18-votes.html
On topic.
Thanks for the header, Mike.
How big a sample set does an MRP poll require?
Three of a kind.
The Tories need time in opposition. They are rudderless and clueless.
Things can only get better
This mistake was not only clearly a gargantuan clusterfuck at the time, it actually looks even worse with hindsight. It has literally destroyed Johnson's government and ended his career in spectacular fashion. It may have done significant damage to the party as a whole. It has shattered political unity at a moment when it had become important due to a renewed public health emergency.
And all for Owen Paterson. An undistinguished former middle-ranking cabinet minister who was deep in the politics of the pork barrel and was not likely to stay in politics much longer anyway. Even if the theoretical aim was to protect Johnson or Patel, it was clearly never going to work.
Sheer bloody madness. Johnson deserves every ounce of opprobrium he gets for it.
Have a good morning.
I could not agree more
For now I go into the new year validated - but Labour still has much work to do
Our silver wedding was also a barn dance - the great advantage is that any hall will do provided it’s big enough and people do dance as it’s harmless fun.
Weddings really don’t need to be expensive and it’s the cheaper ones I remember being far more enjoyable.
The irony is that as soon as Boris leaves anyone sane is going to bin the hideous wallpaper immediately.
Better for Boris to keep on with the booster programme and try and avoid more restrictions
This is where Boris is most vulnerable. He needs money, lots of money to sustain his families and to live like his richer friends. It will be his downfall but probably not yet.
The current boundaries are decades out of date and the boundary review is being done by the independent Electoral Commission as always, no gerrymandering in sight.
He would need to be earning millions on the lecture circuit to be able to buy that himself, far more than going back to being a scribbler at the Telegraph would pay. The longer he stays PM, the higher his value on the lecture circuit here and in the US
This honestly was one of the more bizarre compliments he was given, he's always been a horrendous public speaker
Noting:
- to date there is not much, if any, evidence that booster vaccinations offer much additional protection (over those already vaccinated) against serious outcomes (albeit there may be some limited effect to the extent that boosters might prevent infection in some people)
- the booster programme is increasingly concentrated in those age groups not to date perceived as being overly susceptible to serious illness
- but, early evidence is that boosters begin to wain in their effectiveness (in contracting infection - to the extent that they offer protection against omicron anyway) from a period of 6-10 weeks. So for a very significant percentage of the population (particularly the older/more vulnerable population) will be back (arguably for many are already back) to double dose levels of protection by the end of the current period of restrictions
- fortunately, as above, this may be sufficient for combatting serious illness
- the booster programme is not a "business as usual" operation, but is diverting significant funds and NHS resources towards its delivery*
- even if the restrictions are vaguely successful in having some impact on spread of omicron, what reasons are there not to expect the next few months to be dominated by rolling waves of infection (beyond everyone just getting infected anyway? - which if its going to happen doesn't provide justification for economically damaging restrictions to facilitate ongoing (and possibly repeated) booster programmes)
- when, and how does this ever end? What triggers are going to facilitate a rolling back of mass testing and requirement/need to isolate, particularly for asymptomatic people?
*i wonder how many of those generously offering their time as volunteers would be quite so generous if they knew how much some people are making off the back of their contributions
I'm not sure the entirety of the current decline in the Tory shares is down to the Owen Paterson saga though. The timing also lines up with fears over Covid.
Lets not forget that the rise back in the Tory share earlier in the year was due to the success of the vaccines in getting us out of Covid. Then people started fearmongering over Omicron etc and restrictions coming back, that pissed all over the government's biggest success.
Any government that is putting restrictions upon its people twelve months after vaccines became available has failed to manage Covid well. That includes the British government.
Though frankly the devolved governments and our continental neighbours have all fared much worse it seems, so a rebound in the polls in the new year could be quite plausible as the vaccines again are shown to be a success and the fearmongering over restrictions is shown to be the bullshit it always was.
Alternatively if restrictions are imposed, then Boris has to be ousted, no ifs, no buts.
There is just no scintilla of an excuse to impose restrictions on the people over a year after vaccines became available. None whatsoever.
The rot set in because Cameron and Osborne did not understand differential turnout so convinced themselves that Labour must be cheating. And if Labour is cheating then it is only fair to put a blue thumb on the scales.
Boris’s value comes from tackling Brexit and Covid. The idea time for Boris to go if he wants to make maximise his money is before things start falling apart generally- which given the inflation that is about to hit is going to be sooner rather than ‘later.
If Boris had any sense(and we know he doesn’t) he would be off early next year. Granted he won’t have been PM for very long but Brexi and Covid is more than any other PM has had to deal with since WW2.
Oh and to prove the point how much has Cameron made post being a PM. losing the Brexit vote destroyed any chance of an annual lucrative lecture tour.
My son said over Christmas that it all started to go wrong with Carrie whose ridiculous and lavish demands for their flat together with her love of partying should have had warning lights flashing
While as a family we support Carrie's work in animal welfare it is simply unacceptable for her to have so much influence
Furthermore, the idiotic chief whip and even more absurd JRM should have paid a very heavy price for the way that tried to gerrymander Paterson in an obscure and corrupt way, not only to save him but also put a fireguard around wallpapergate
The country faces issues of a magnitude not seen seen WW2 and Boris is not the answer
His mps must take action in the new year and not to delay until after May's elections
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1475189168942813196?s=20
I actually have some sympathy for him about this. My kids went to private school and had friends whose parents were significantly richer than me. It gets difficult to keep up when they are off skiing, taking trips to London, staying in their holiday home etc. Boris is not poor but most of his social circle will have inherited vastly more than he will ever have. And his wife seems to have incredibly little insight into this as the decoration nonsense demonstrated all too well.
Equally Boris now has no one to turn to for unbiased advice which is a problem.
Big shout out for the gullible idiots who parroted the line that Paterson had no appellate process available, something Boris Johnson finally admitted was bollocks at the liaison committee.
Even if the government imposed indoor restrictions in the coming days you get the feeling there would be a thousand parties stacked full of revelers.
Just as only David Miliband as leader might have made any difference to Labour if they had replaced Brown before the 2010 general election, so only Sunak would get any sustained bounce back from Starmer
Steve Baker look plausible to me, he's not tied to this shambles of a govt, and can go for the "let's get Covid done" vote.
His backstory (evangelical Christian, ex RAF) also makes a neat contrast.
https://www.ft.com/content/889e5a6a-4443-11ea-abea-0c7a29cd66fe
The only exception was John Major in 1992 but he then led the Tories to a landslide defeat in 1997.
Even this poll still sees only a hung parliament not even a Labour majority against Boris. In 1992 remember most of the final polls also had Kinnock winning most seats in a hung parliament as this poll shows Starmer doing
He and his party have taken a kicking, but it is nothing compared to what is to come when flatgate gets fully exposed.
Blair and Thatcher made even more than that per speech, especially in the US.
Plus going back to being a columnist loses Boris the central London townhouse, country mansion, car and police escort and flights he now enjoys rent free
So where is the Sunak bounce coming from? Surbiton?
Boris and co have done neither. Now granted, we are in a very privileged position where thanks to this site we probably know more than everyone outside of a few select circles but the current lockdown clearly serves no purpose beyond navel gazing / point scoring. it’s going to be interesting to see the impact in Scotland and wales as they are subject to restrictions where England isn’t.
(NI is different as they do need to look at what Ireland is doing as well England.)
https://www.businessinsider.com/ex-uk-pm-theresa-may-earned-1861776-since-quitting-2021-7?op=1
A counter to that (at least as far as the Johnson Govt is concerned) is that traditionally Government unpopularity in mid term is a consequence of "tough but necessary" measures generally taken in the early years of Government. Which, presuming things improve later, gives a clear message to be taken to the electorate of having taken those tough decisions for the good of the country and we are in a better position for it.
When so much of the current Governments woes are self inflicted (and i'm leaving out general Brexit and Covid policy (not the "party" stuff obviously) out of this - which i think retain the potential to help them in future) however, they lack that message to sell. So they clearly need a complete Government overhaul as a minimum - and they still need a lot more than that (even if Brexit/Covid improves) the economic clouds on the horizon are hardly propipitious...
The only alternative leader to Boris who might get a bounce v Starmer is Sunak and on today's ConservativeHome survey Sunak would not even win the Tory membership vote, albeit only a narrow loss
Boris has the advantage Blair had of being known in America too.
HYUFD takes much comfort from the Tories ahead by circa 40 seats at level pegging on points and level pegging on seats when Labour are 3 points ahead ( on new boundaries).
But of course you would call it efficiency of votes.
Was Boris representing himself as it takes a particularly bad performance to get that sort of judgment in this day and age
Sturgeon has perhaps failed to see the end of the rope that Boris (with more than a little help from his cabinet) has. People are sick to the back teeth with restrictions, things being cancelled and not living normally. Sturgeon is risking drifting from mother of the nation status to a total pain in the neck destroying business and stopping younger and less at risk people enjoying themselves. Her stopping crowds at football matches has gone down particularly badly.
As I stated Cameron is damaged goods due to losing the Brexit vote. Boris risks the same so he is best off leaving asap but without anyone to guide him he won’t see that (most people guiding him want Boris to remain PM, as they can profit from him being there).
So yes it is efficiency of votes. If Labour regained their former Scottish seats then suddenly we'd be looking at a more efficient Labour distribution of seats but not change the Conservative seat tally at all.
What course will he lecture? Fuckwittery 101?
Well he has already excelled on Fuck Whitty 101so I suppose its a natural progression
I think it was Andrew Gimson, a friend of Boris and Marina Wheeler, who said during their 25 year plus marriage it was Marina Wheeler who brought in all the money for the house and family.
Add in the fact he's been paying child support to Helen MacIntyre for over a decade of that marriage and the fact Ken Livingstone helped confirmed Boris Johnson is famously financially disorganised it isn't surprising the judge sided with Marina Wheeler.
Until you understand that simple fact, and be mindful how quickly Ratner trashed his brand you should take stock and as a conservative accept you have a responsibility to change the perception, and that cannot start with Boris in no10