It is time to invest now, massive infrastructure projects, proper house building, proper public transport systems in the North, green energy projects.
Labour needs to be unapologetically pro proper social democracy
Yep, with our massive trade surplus, our government surplus, our low level of debt, our readily available surplus of labour and inflation completely under control what could possibly go wrong?
Like a company, you can't cut your way to sustainable profitability. Rationalisation and job cuts are only half the story, the other half is achieving some kind of growth. My former employer realised this in the early 2010s and actually began investing in the core business and it has grown 10x in value since the worst days when they started the investment plans and looked beyond job cuts.
So, the question becomes, what is our core business, and what more can we do to help the financial services industry?
I'm not sure this logic leads to investing in the North being a good idea. Unfortunately.
Surely as a nation our 'core business' is the 67 million people who live in this country?
If people in the North are not as productive as can be, then our core business of the nation isn't operating as it should be, and we should figure out why.
Treasury analysis that says "this part of the country is overheating, so lets spend more money there" is part of the problem that means the core business hasn't been working as it should.
That's not really the point - the issue is that the country's economic fundamentals are very broken and need fixing. Max is making the point that, by analogy to a company, you can't fix the problems by cutting everything until it works again; you need to refocus on things that make money and do more of those. I sort of agree with this, but I don't think that line of thinking logically leads towards borrowing money to build lots of infrastructure in the North. Maybe it does, but it feels more like we might bankrupt the country before we see a return.
There is actually plenty of money being spent in the North - 60%+ of the GDP of the north is the government, compared to about a third in London. The trouble is, it's spent in a way which could have been designed to do maximum economic damage. It goes on inflated public sector salaries, which are similar to those in the south, despite a vastly lower cost of living, welfare benefits and so on. This creates a hugely damaging dependency culture and throttles private enterprise by increases the price of inputs and reducing the rate of return there.
So rather than subsidising dependency in the north, regional policy should subsidise enterprise, by cutting taxes, cutting public spending, axing damaging regulations and promoting infrastructure and other business-friendly spending. If that doesn't restore dynamism to the north, nothing will.
Yep it's 60% plus because it's being spent on Universal Credit and housing benefit because there is no incentive for companies to invest locally.
But you are right without the infrastructure projects no-one is going to invest in the North. And guess what infrastructure projects have been cut (everything in the North East)..
I do think in the late 2010s and into 2019, Labour had lost touch, I am not sure how to put that better.
I have said before, I do think Labour should be in favour of strong controls on immigration now. I am personally pro FOM but it's clear the country is not and we've left the EU now. Is that me disrespecting my principles, I don't know
Despite their improved polling relative to the Tories - the central problem for Labour remains the dichotomy between their 'educated' m/c base in the university towns and big cities and their more traditional supporters from the w/c in the 'red wall' type towns. The views of the former tend to be contemptuous of those of the latter. And it is ever more obvious. I'm not at all sure that they can truly reconcile.
Had lunch at Circolo Popolare, was pretty busy lots of people being turned away because they hadn't booked.
Good to see the government has declined restrictions again, that probably puts any chance of them into the first week of January by which time we'll know for sure what the non-incidental admissions rate is for Omicron.
@eek tentatively the move to Switzerland is still on, we'll just ship everything. Though my wife is expressing a lot of doubt at the moment, I half expected it to happen because she's very much a Londoner now and has idealised what life in Switzerland is like because of her childhood rather than what it would be like for us.
Anyway, next stop Spider-Man!
Two post credit scenes.
I was really disappointed not to see my name on the credits. It seemed a reasonable proportion of the western world and a chunk of the eastern one too had been chosen almost at random. I had nothing to do with the film but found it hard to believe all those people did either.
I think you misunderestimate the number of visual effects that film uses.
On the plus side, at least your surname is used a lot in Succession, and the main character is originally from Dundee.
The special effects were astounding. Even compared with other MCU films there was an almost Matrix like leap in their quality,
If you search for the VFX breakdowns of many blockbuster movies, you will be amazed just how much of it is VFX these days, even things that you think must be at least a real place that they have put the character into e.g. Deadpool entire opening sequence doesn't exist in real life.
Had lunch at Circolo Popolare, was pretty busy lots of people being turned away because they hadn't booked.
Good to see the government has declined restrictions again, that probably puts any chance of them into the first week of January by which time we'll know for sure what the non-incidental admissions rate is for Omicron.
@eek tentatively the move to Switzerland is still on, we'll just ship everything. Though my wife is expressing a lot of doubt at the moment, I half expected it to happen because she's very much a Londoner now and has idealised what life in Switzerland is like because of her childhood rather than what it would be like for us.
Anyway, next stop Spider-Man!
Two post credit scenes.
I was really disappointed not to see my name on the credits. It seemed a reasonable proportion of the western world and a chunk of the eastern one too had been chosen almost at random. I had nothing to do with the film but found it hard to believe all those people did either.
I think you misunderestimate the number of visual effects that film uses.
On the plus side, at least your surname is used a lot in Succession, and the main character is originally from Dundee.
The special effects were astounding. Even compared with other MCU films there was an almost Matrix like leap in their quality,
I watched in it 3D IMAX and it was a visual treat, the leap was something else.
It is time to invest now, massive infrastructure projects, proper house building, proper public transport systems in the North, green energy projects.
Labour needs to be unapologetically pro proper social democracy
Yep, with our massive trade surplus, our government surplus, our low level of debt, our readily available surplus of labour and inflation completely under control what could possibly go wrong?
Like a company, you can't cut your way to sustainable profitability. Rationalisation and job cuts are only half the story, the other half is achieving some kind of growth. My former employer realised this in the early 2010s and actually began investing in the core business and it has grown 10x in value since the worst days when they started the investment plans and looked beyond job cuts.
So, the question becomes, what is our core business, and what more can we do to help the financial services industry?
I'm not sure this logic leads to investing in the North being a good idea. Unfortunately.
Surely as a nation our 'core business' is the 67 million people who live in this country?
If people in the North are not as productive as can be, then our core business of the nation isn't operating as it should be, and we should figure out why.
Treasury analysis that says "this part of the country is overheating, so lets spend more money there" is part of the problem that means the core business hasn't been working as it should.
That's not really the point - the issue is that the country's economic fundamentals are very broken and need fixing. Max is making the point that, by analogy to a company, you can't fix the problems by cutting everything until it works again; you need to refocus on things that make money and do more of those. I sort of agree with this, but I don't think that line of thinking logically leads towards borrowing money to build lots of infrastructure in the North. Maybe it does, but it feels more like we might bankrupt the country before we see a return.
There is actually plenty of money being spent in the North - 60%+ of the GDP of the north is the government, compared to about a third in London. The trouble is, it's spent in a way which could have been designed to do maximum economic damage. It goes on inflated public sector salaries, which are similar to those in the south, despite a vastly lower cost of living, welfare benefits and so on. This creates a hugely damaging dependency culture and throttles private enterprise by increases the price of inputs and reducing the rate of return there.
So rather than subsidising dependency in the north, regional policy should subsidise enterprise, by cutting taxes, cutting public spending, axing damaging regulations and promoting infrastructure and other business-friendly spending. If that doesn't restore dynamism to the north, nothing will.
What’s the spread on reported “cases” today? Over/under 300k?
Expect there will have been a big increase in testing on Xmas Eve/Xmas day. But maybe many won’t have been reported? Meanwhile still expecting case rises once all other factors removed.
What’s the spread on reported “cases” today? Over/under 300k?
Expect there will have been a big increase in testing on Xmas Eve/Xmas day. But maybe many won’t have been reported? Meanwhile still expecting case rises once all other factors removed.
I wonder if they will just give one big number or split it up into various days? If its just all 3 days lumped together, 300k+ easily.
It is time to invest now, massive infrastructure projects, proper house building, proper public transport systems in the North, green energy projects.
Labour needs to be unapologetically pro proper social democracy
Yep, with our massive trade surplus, our government surplus, our low level of debt, our readily available surplus of labour and inflation completely under control what could possibly go wrong?
I'm a long-standing advocate of commercial state-owned enterprise. Its what the Germans and others are very good at. Fully privatised are often profiteering monopolies, fully state controlled lack in cash and permission to actually get stuff done.
So lets have an EDF or a Deutsche Bahn. Commercially run with actual industry leaders making them work, but able to borrow at government rates. And actually invest in the things we need which all pay back a return on that investment. Its called capitalism, but when its being done for national strategic reasons there has to be a state framework as well.
When we had publicly owned corporations they were a byword for inefficiency, waste and feather bedding. Its why we privatised them in the 80s and many went on to thrive once their investment decisions actually related to the business under consideration as opposed to overall government spending.
What’s the spread on reported “cases” today? Over/under 300k?
Expect there will have been a big increase in testing on Xmas Eve/Xmas day. But maybe many won’t have been reported? Meanwhile still expecting case rises once all other factors removed.
I wonder if they will just give one big number or split it up into various days? If its just all 3 days lumped together, 300k+ easily.
It is time to invest now, massive infrastructure projects, proper house building, proper public transport systems in the North, green energy projects.
Labour needs to be unapologetically pro proper social democracy
Yep, with our massive trade surplus, our government surplus, our low level of debt, our readily available surplus of labour and inflation completely under control what could possibly go wrong?
I'm a long-standing advocate of commercial state-owned enterprise. Its what the Germans and others are very good at. Fully privatised are often profiteering monopolies, fully state controlled lack in cash and permission to actually get stuff done.
So lets have an EDF or a Deutsche Bahn. Commercially run with actual industry leaders making them work, but able to borrow at government rates. And actually invest in the things we need which all pay back a return on that investment. Its called capitalism, but when its being done for national strategic reasons there has to be a state framework as well.
When we had publicly owned corporations they were a byword for inefficiency, waste and feather bedding. Its why we privatised them in the 80s and many went on to thrive once their investment decisions actually related to the business under consideration as opposed to overall government spending.
We should do the opposite and make overseas nationalised companies compete on the same basis as private industry.
What’s the spread on reported “cases” today? Over/under 300k?
Expect there will have been a big increase in testing on Xmas Eve/Xmas day. But maybe many won’t have been reported? Meanwhile still expecting case rises once all other factors removed.
I wonder if they will just give one big number or split it up into various days? If its just all 3 days lumped together, 300k+ easily.
Malmesbury is going to need some bigger graphs.
Not sure HSA Excel spreadsheets will be able to cope....
Now have two family members and about 6 friends with COVID.
If people get PCRs on Boxing Day, for what date would the tests be registered? 27th?
I think the numbers are going to be absolutely wild. 200,000 +
I'm getting nervous about even reading your posts.
I saw your posts earlier about being overweight and I must say I was rather surprised at how slim you are in your appearance in the news following your successful sexual assault prosecution.
Your online persona is much more rotund. Hope that cheers you up.
What’s the spread on reported “cases” today? Over/under 300k?
Expect there will have been a big increase in testing on Xmas Eve/Xmas day. But maybe many won’t have been reported? Meanwhile still expecting case rises once all other factors removed.
I wonder if they will just give one big number or split it up into various days? If its just all 3 days lumped together, 300k+ easily.
Malmesbury is going to need some bigger graphs.
Having got the booster figure completely wrong, I'm going to go for 230,000 as the 2021 record for a single day's worth of positive tests.
It is time to invest now, massive infrastructure projects, proper house building, proper public transport systems in the North, green energy projects.
Labour needs to be unapologetically pro proper social democracy
Yep, with our massive trade surplus, our government surplus, our low level of debt, our readily available surplus of labour and inflation completely under control what could possibly go wrong?
Like a company, you can't cut your way to sustainable profitability. Rationalisation and job cuts are only half the story, the other half is achieving some kind of growth. My former employer realised this in the early 2010s and actually began investing in the core business and it has grown 10x in value since the worst days when they started the investment plans and looked beyond job cuts.
So, the question becomes, what is our core business, and what more can we do to help the financial services industry?
I'm not sure this logic leads to investing in the North being a good idea. Unfortunately.
Surely as a nation our 'core business' is the 67 million people who live in this country?
If people in the North are not as productive as can be, then our core business of the nation isn't operating as it should be, and we should figure out why.
Treasury analysis that says "this part of the country is overheating, so lets spend more money there" is part of the problem that means the core business hasn't been working as it should.
That's not really the point - the issue is that the country's economic fundamentals are very broken and need fixing. Max is making the point that, by analogy to a company, you can't fix the problems by cutting everything until it works again; you need to refocus on things that make money and do more of those. I sort of agree with this, but I don't think that line of thinking logically leads towards borrowing money to build lots of infrastructure in the North. Maybe it does, but it feels more like we might bankrupt the country before we see a return.
There is actually plenty of money being spent in the North - 60%+ of the GDP of the north is the government, compared to about a third in London. The trouble is, it's spent in a way which could have been designed to do maximum economic damage. It goes on inflated public sector salaries, which are similar to those in the south, despite a vastly lower cost of living, welfare benefits and so on. This creates a hugely damaging dependency culture and throttles private enterprise by increases the price of inputs and reducing the rate of return there.
So rather than subsidising dependency in the north, regional policy should subsidise enterprise, by cutting taxes, cutting public spending, axing damaging regulations and promoting infrastructure and other business-friendly spending. If that doesn't restore dynamism to the north, nothing will.
Yep it's 60% plus because it's being spent on Universal Credit and housing benefit because there is no incentive for companies to invest locally.
But you are right without the infrastructure projects no-one is going to invest in the North. And guess what infrastructure projects have been cut (everything in the North East)..
They DO need infrastructure, but in most cases that's probably the least important of the priorities - it mostly matters for companies that make stuff, and that's only 12% or so of our economy. And they can have it in the south if they want it. Skilled labour, low taxes and light-touch regulation are likely to be far more important for many companies - that's where genuine devolution, along the lines of the states in America or the cantons in Switzerland, would really help.
Whereas in the north what they too often get is low-skilled labour which can live off the dole or on public sector salaries, taxes that are far too high and an ever more intrusive state.
What’s the spread on reported “cases” today? Over/under 300k?
Expect there will have been a big increase in testing on Xmas Eve/Xmas day. But maybe many won’t have been reported? Meanwhile still expecting case rises once all other factors removed.
I wonder if they will just give one big number or split it up into various days? If its just all 3 days lumped together, 300k+ easily.
Malmesbury is going to need some bigger graphs.
Having got the booster figure completely wrong, I'm going to go for 230,000 as the 2021 record for a single day's worth of positive tests.
If we find one of the past 3 days was that many, the pressure on Boris to introduce restrictions will be overwhelming.
I am not sure we will see anything like that high, not everybody tests themselves morning, noon and night, nor will go and get tested when they have cold like symptoms (or rather naughtily not report a positive test). Furthermore, as far as I know, they still aren't including reinfections in the numbers.
What’s the spread on reported “cases” today? Over/under 300k?
Expect there will have been a big increase in testing on Xmas Eve/Xmas day. But maybe many won’t have been reported? Meanwhile still expecting case rises once all other factors removed.
I wonder if they will just give one big number or split it up into various days? If its just all 3 days lumped together, 300k+ easily.
Malmesbury is going to need some bigger graphs.
Having got the booster figure completely wrong, I'm going to go for 230,000 as the 2021 record for a single day's worth of positive tests.
Now have two family members and about 6 friends with COVID.
If people get PCRs on Boxing Day, for what date would the tests be registered? 27th?
I think the numbers are going to be absolutely wild. 200,000 +
I'm getting nervous about even reading your posts.
I saw your posts earlier about being overweight and I must say I was rather surprised at how slim you are in your appearance in the news following your successful sexual assault prosecution.
Your online persona is much more rotund. Hope that cheers you up.
Note to new readers, to avoid misunderstanding: @DavidL was the prosecutor.
What’s the spread on reported “cases” today? Over/under 300k?
Expect there will have been a big increase in testing on Xmas Eve/Xmas day. But maybe many won’t have been reported? Meanwhile still expecting case rises once all other factors removed.
I wonder if they will just give one big number or split it up into various days? If its just all 3 days lumped together, 300k+ easily.
Malmesbury is going to need some bigger graphs.
Having got the booster figure completely wrong, I'm going to go for 230,000 as the 2021 record for a single day's worth of positive tests.
I do think in the late 2010s and into 2019, Labour had lost touch, I am not sure how to put that better.
I have said before, I do think Labour should be in favour of strong controls on immigration now. I am personally pro FOM but it's clear the country is not and we've left the EU now. Is that me disrespecting my principles, I don't know
Despite their improved polling relative to the Tories - the central problem for Labour remains the dichotomy between their 'educated' m/c base in the university towns and big cities and their more traditional supporters from the w/c in the 'red wall' type towns. The views of the former tend to be contemptuous of those of the latter. And it is ever more obvious. I'm not at all sure that they can truly reconcile.
Perhaps. But the Tories have just as big a problem in reconciling the diverse interests of their 'new' white w/c voters in the North and Midlands with their own traditional suburban, rural and middle class base, don't they?
As I said, London has some of the worst poverty in the UK. Those people need levelling up just as much as the North.
The issue is that London has massive wealth and relative poverty cheek by jowl. Douglas Adams once wrote something about one street in North London having bands of vast riches and poverty as you walked down it. Public transport is generally brilliant, meaning that someone wanting to raise themselves out of poverty can find the means to do so nearby. Hence all the East London barrowboys who started working in the city.
Some of the northern, Welsh, Scottish and rural towns are very different, with large areas of relative poverty, and very poor transport links, even inside the town, yet alone to other towns. These towns face many problems London will never have.
Sure - but the solution is to level up those places, something I am very much in favour of?
The problem I have is that the Tory approach at present is to attack and destroy London and then just do nothing for the North instead (cutting HS2 etc)
It is time to invest now, massive infrastructure projects, proper house building, proper public transport systems in the North, green energy projects.
Labour needs to be unapologetically pro proper social democracy
Yep, with our massive trade surplus, our government surplus, our low level of debt, our readily available surplus of labour and inflation completely under control what could possibly go wrong?
Like a company, you can't cut your way to sustainable profitability. Rationalisation and job cuts are only half the story, the other half is achieving some kind of growth. My former employer realised this in the early 2010s and actually began investing in the core business and it has grown 10x in value since the worst days when they started the investment plans and looked beyond job cuts.
So, the question becomes, what is our core business, and what more can we do to help the financial services industry?
I'm not sure this logic leads to investing in the North being a good idea. Unfortunately.
Surely as a nation our 'core business' is the 67 million people who live in this country?
If people in the North are not as productive as can be, then our core business of the nation isn't operating as it should be, and we should figure out why.
Treasury analysis that says "this part of the country is overheating, so lets spend more money there" is part of the problem that means the core business hasn't been working as it should.
That's not really the point - the issue is that the country's economic fundamentals are very broken and need fixing. Max is making the point that, by analogy to a company, you can't fix the problems by cutting everything until it works again; you need to refocus on things that make money and do more of those. I sort of agree with this, but I don't think that line of thinking logically leads towards borrowing money to build lots of infrastructure in the North. Maybe it does, but it feels more like we might bankrupt the country before we see a return.
There is actually plenty of money being spent in the North - 60%+ of the GDP of the north is the government, compared to about a third in London. The trouble is, it's spent in a way which could have been designed to do maximum economic damage. It goes on inflated public sector salaries, which are similar to those in the south, despite a vastly lower cost of living, welfare benefits and so on. This creates a hugely damaging dependency culture and throttles private enterprise by increases the price of inputs and reducing the rate of return there.
So rather than subsidising dependency in the north, regional policy should subsidise enterprise, by cutting taxes, cutting public spending, axing damaging regulations and promoting infrastructure and other business-friendly spending. If that doesn't restore dynamism to the north, nothing will.
What is a "dependency culture"?
It's when dodgy companies, pub landlords etc. depend on their friends in government to give them lucrative contracts for things like Covid testing and PPE, isn't it?
Now have two family members and about 6 friends with COVID.
If people get PCRs on Boxing Day, for what date would the tests be registered? 27th?
I think the numbers are going to be absolutely wild. 200,000 +
I'm getting nervous about even reading your posts.
I saw your posts earlier about being overweight and I must say I was rather surprised at how slim you are in your appearance in the news following your successful sexual assault prosecution.
Your online persona is much more rotund. Hope that cheers you up.
It is time to invest now, massive infrastructure projects, proper house building, proper public transport systems in the North, green energy projects.
Labour needs to be unapologetically pro proper social democracy
Yep, with our massive trade surplus, our government surplus, our low level of debt, our readily available surplus of labour and inflation completely under control what could possibly go wrong?
Like a company, you can't cut your way to sustainable profitability. Rationalisation and job cuts are only half the story, the other half is achieving some kind of growth. My former employer realised this in the early 2010s and actually began investing in the core business and it has grown 10x in value since the worst days when they started the investment plans and looked beyond job cuts.
So, the question becomes, what is our core business, and what more can we do to help the financial services industry?
I'm not sure this logic leads to investing in the North being a good idea. Unfortunately.
Surely as a nation our 'core business' is the 67 million people who live in this country?
If people in the North are not as productive as can be, then our core business of the nation isn't operating as it should be, and we should figure out why.
Treasury analysis that says "this part of the country is overheating, so lets spend more money there" is part of the problem that means the core business hasn't been working as it should.
That's not really the point - the issue is that the country's economic fundamentals are very broken and need fixing. Max is making the point that, by analogy to a company, you can't fix the problems by cutting everything until it works again; you need to refocus on things that make money and do more of those. I sort of agree with this, but I don't think that line of thinking logically leads towards borrowing money to build lots of infrastructure in the North. Maybe it does, but it feels more like we might bankrupt the country before we see a return.
There is actually plenty of money being spent in the North - 60%+ of the GDP of the north is the government, compared to about a third in London. The trouble is, it's spent in a way which could have been designed to do maximum economic damage. It goes on inflated public sector salaries, which are similar to those in the south, despite a vastly lower cost of living, welfare benefits and so on. This creates a hugely damaging dependency culture and throttles private enterprise by increases the price of inputs and reducing the rate of return there.
So rather than subsidising dependency in the north, regional policy should subsidise enterprise, by cutting taxes, cutting public spending, axing damaging regulations and promoting infrastructure and other business-friendly spending. If that doesn't restore dynamism to the north, nothing will.
What is a "dependency culture"?
It's when dodgy companies, pub landlords etc. depend on their friends in government to give them lucrative contracts for things like Covid testing and PPE, isn't it?
What’s the spread on reported “cases” today? Over/under 300k?
Expect there will have been a big increase in testing on Xmas Eve/Xmas day. But maybe many won’t have been reported? Meanwhile still expecting case rises once all other factors removed.
I wonder if they will just give one big number or split it up into various days? If its just all 3 days lumped together, 300k+ easily.
Malmesbury is going to need some bigger graphs.
Having got the booster figure completely wrong, I'm going to go for 230,000 as the 2021 record for a single day's worth of positive tests.
Specimen or reporting date?
Even the (lack of) reporting over Christmas we are going to have a few Murder Days.
What kind of biscuits? And can someone other than @Leon lead the panic this time? I know he does a good panic, but I think we need to change the lineup....
I do think in the late 2010s and into 2019, Labour had lost touch, I am not sure how to put that better.
I have said before, I do think Labour should be in favour of strong controls on immigration now. I am personally pro FOM but it's clear the country is not and we've left the EU now. Is that me disrespecting my principles, I don't know
Despite their improved polling relative to the Tories - the central problem for Labour remains the dichotomy between their 'educated' m/c base in the university towns and big cities and their more traditional supporters from the w/c in the 'red wall' type towns. The views of the former tend to be contemptuous of those of the latter. And it is ever more obvious. I'm not at all sure that they can truly reconcile.
Perhaps. But the Tories have just as big a problem in reconciling the diverse interests of their 'new' white w/c voters in the North and Midlands with their own traditional suburban, rural and middle class base, don't they?
If you look at recent polling the Tories have lost those "new" voters in the North and Midlands and are well on their way to losing those traditional voters too.
Boris with his one rule for you and another for me policy really is a gift that keeps on giving.
Good news on the Covid front in the Rentool household - my wife's PCR result has come back negative. It looks like the positive LFTs on Christmas Day just caught the back end of an infection. I've tested negative again, so tomorrow we can face the world.
It is time to invest now, massive infrastructure projects, proper house building, proper public transport systems in the North, green energy projects.
Labour needs to be unapologetically pro proper social democracy
Yep, with our massive trade surplus, our government surplus, our low level of debt, our readily available surplus of labour and inflation completely under control what could possibly go wrong?
Like a company, you can't cut your way to sustainable profitability. Rationalisation and job cuts are only half the story, the other half is achieving some kind of growth. My former employer realised this in the early 2010s and actually began investing in the core business and it has grown 10x in value since the worst days when they started the investment plans and looked beyond job cuts.
So, the question becomes, what is our core business, and what more can we do to help the financial services industry?
I'm not sure this logic leads to investing in the North being a good idea. Unfortunately.
Surely as a nation our 'core business' is the 67 million people who live in this country?
If people in the North are not as productive as can be, then our core business of the nation isn't operating as it should be, and we should figure out why.
Treasury analysis that says "this part of the country is overheating, so lets spend more money there" is part of the problem that means the core business hasn't been working as it should.
That's not really the point - the issue is that the country's economic fundamentals are very broken and need fixing. Max is making the point that, by analogy to a company, you can't fix the problems by cutting everything until it works again; you need to refocus on things that make money and do more of those. I sort of agree with this, but I don't think that line of thinking logically leads towards borrowing money to build lots of infrastructure in the North. Maybe it does, but it feels more like we might bankrupt the country before we see a return.
There is actually plenty of money being spent in the North - 60%+ of the GDP of the north is the government, compared to about a third in London. The trouble is, it's spent in a way which could have been designed to do maximum economic damage. It goes on inflated public sector salaries, which are similar to those in the south, despite a vastly lower cost of living, welfare benefits and so on. This creates a hugely damaging dependency culture and throttles private enterprise by increases the price of inputs and reducing the rate of return there.
So rather than subsidising dependency in the north, regional policy should subsidise enterprise, by cutting taxes, cutting public spending, axing damaging regulations and promoting infrastructure and other business-friendly spending. If that doesn't restore dynamism to the north, nothing will.
What is a "dependency culture"?
It's when dodgy companies, pub landlords etc. depend on their friends in government to give them lucrative contracts for things like Covid testing and PPE, isn't it?
Not to dispute that questionable stuff has gone on, but the "pub landlord" story appears to actually be a bit like the infamous duck house of the expenses scandal i.e. we never paid for that infamous duck house.
It appears that Hancock didn't actually know this guy, he didn't even have his number, it was a neighbour of Hancock who gave him the number. And he actually did have a manufacturing company, so the "Hancock mate who runs the local boozer and no idea about manufacturing" isn't really true.
I do think in the late 2010s and into 2019, Labour had lost touch, I am not sure how to put that better.
I have said before, I do think Labour should be in favour of strong controls on immigration now. I am personally pro FOM but it's clear the country is not and we've left the EU now. Is that me disrespecting my principles, I don't know
Despite their improved polling relative to the Tories - the central problem for Labour remains the dichotomy between their 'educated' m/c base in the university towns and big cities and their more traditional supporters from the w/c in the 'red wall' type towns. The views of the former tend to be contemptuous of those of the latter. And it is ever more obvious. I'm not at all sure that they can truly reconcile.
Perhaps. But the Tories have just as big a problem in reconciling the diverse interests of their 'new' white w/c voters in the North and Midlands with their own traditional suburban, rural and middle class base, don't they?
If you look at recent polling the Tories have lost those "new" voters in the North and Midlands and are well on their way to losing those traditional voters too.
Boris with his one rule for you and another for me policy really is a gift that keeps on giving.
Yes, of course I was referring to the coalition of irreconcilable interests that gave the Tories such a stonking victory a mere two years ago. That coalition was never, I think, durable, but it is indeed collapsing more quickly than one would have thought if asked a few months ago.
I do think in the late 2010s and into 2019, Labour had lost touch, I am not sure how to put that better.
I have said before, I do think Labour should be in favour of strong controls on immigration now. I am personally pro FOM but it's clear the country is not and we've left the EU now. Is that me disrespecting my principles, I don't know
Despite their improved polling relative to the Tories - the central problem for Labour remains the dichotomy between their 'educated' m/c base in the university towns and big cities and their more traditional supporters from the w/c in the 'red wall' type towns. The views of the former tend to be contemptuous of those of the latter. And it is ever more obvious. I'm not at all sure that they can truly reconcile.
Isn't that precisely the same issue the Tories are encountering in trying to govern?
Good news on the Covid front in the Rentool household - my wife's PCR result has come back negative. It looks like the positive LFTs on Christmas Day just caught the back end of an infection. I've tested negative again, so tomorrow we can face the world.
Good news on the Covid front in the Rentool household - my wife's PCR result has come back negative. It looks like the positive LFTs on Christmas Day just caught the back end of an infection. I've tested negative again, so tomorrow we can face the world.
Could have also been a false positive.
0.5% of lft positives are false, so the chances of 2 at the same time are on the slim side
Good news on the Covid front in the Rentool household - my wife's PCR result has come back negative. It looks like the positive LFTs on Christmas Day just caught the back end of an infection. I've tested negative again, so tomorrow we can face the world.
Could have also been a false positive.
0.5% of lft positives are false, so the chances of 2 at the same time are on the slim side
I didn't realise that there was multiple ones taken.
I do think in the late 2010s and into 2019, Labour had lost touch, I am not sure how to put that better.
I have said before, I do think Labour should be in favour of strong controls on immigration now. I am personally pro FOM but it's clear the country is not and we've left the EU now. Is that me disrespecting my principles, I don't know
Despite their improved polling relative to the Tories - the central problem for Labour remains the dichotomy between their 'educated' m/c base in the university towns and big cities and their more traditional supporters from the w/c in the 'red wall' type towns. The views of the former tend to be contemptuous of those of the latter. And it is ever more obvious. I'm not at all sure that they can truly reconcile.
Ever less obvious, I'd say - there was an issue there, but the common unenthusiastic (shall we say...) perception of the Government has healed a good deal.
Spent Christmas at my daughter's , they had all taken tests etc , she felt crap next day and just received the wonderful news that she has Covid. Wife is having kittens.
😟 Hope things work out okay Malc.
Been at my brothers for Christmas back at barn conversion now. Just catching up on things. There a lot of it about. I’m sort of feeling guilty I’ve never had it. 😕 unless one of the bad colds I’ve had was it.
Yesterday I got soaked, freezing, lost all my money. I was on the right horses for the finish, they slipped over in wet before got there. 🙄 Brilliant day out though! 👍🏻
Getting a bad chest now. Done latty test negative, but still possible to get bad chest without covid suppose having spent day out getting so wet and cold.
Thanks, best of luck. I had not a bad day yesterday , got a trixie up and had a few pounds on Bravesmansgame. Got an early winner today on Nichol's novice hurdler Iceo, looks like it will be a good one. Have done Highland Hunter in Welsh National.
I am having a bit of a fallow day today after my over excited largess yesterday, though I know it’s all on and it’s tempting, I havn’t looked at it. I’m going to catch up on Emmerdale and just chill out.
Bravemansgame a good call 👍🏻 I don’t know what happened in the KG6, it was fun to watch, and why I don’t back much on chase or big races the favourites came nowhere. The ground was more soft than people thought I think. The winner was worthy at twenty something to one.
Hope things go well Malc. I’ll post some thoughts on New Year’s Day runners for sure.
Cheers, I got a place with Highland Hunter though the winner when you looked at his previous form was an obvious choice.
Anyone know why we aren't collating re-infection figures? There seem to be a fair few about.
Originally it made sense, because reinfection rates were less than 1%, so it was basically a rounding error. Now, they really should be collating into the dashboard.
I believe they are looking at them behind the scenes, as I have seen some stats somewhere about reinfection rates.
McKay is so un-shy about expressing his blanket contempt that one starts to wonder who this could possibly be for. The only group simpatico to its repellent self-celebratory attitude would be the pocket of liberalism on that same ideological footing, estranging others ostensibly on their side with an air of superiority. The toothless comedy has both the tone and reach of a political Facebook meme sent by a well-meaning elder relative, the point less to critique than reaffirm that we all hate the same sorts of people.
When The Guardian is saying this, you know it's missed the target. I actually watched this on Christmas Day and I thought it had it's moments (there is one very funny bit towards the end). What annoyed me is that there is a very obvious improvement that could have been made to the plot.
I do think in the late 2010s and into 2019, Labour had lost touch, I am not sure how to put that better.
I have said before, I do think Labour should be in favour of strong controls on immigration now. I am personally pro FOM but it's clear the country is not and we've left the EU now. Is that me disrespecting my principles, I don't know
Despite their improved polling relative to the Tories - the central problem for Labour remains the dichotomy between their 'educated' m/c base in the university towns and big cities and their more traditional supporters from the w/c in the 'red wall' type towns. The views of the former tend to be contemptuous of those of the latter. And it is ever more obvious. I'm not at all sure that they can truly reconcile.
Perhaps. But the Tories have just as big a problem in reconciling the diverse interests of their 'new' white w/c voters in the North and Midlands with their own traditional suburban, rural and middle class base, don't they?
They didn't last time of course although your point is taken. However, I don't think the w/c voters of , say, Walsall/Blyth/Stockton/Stoke are very different fron their equivalents in Dartford and the Medway towns who have been soldly more and more Tory since the end of the Blair era. Indeed Labour need to be very centrist indeed to win these places over as TB himself proved so effectively and there are many on the left who still cannot forgive him. Not sure also why you reference 'white' voters. The A/C vote and Muslim vote has tended to be solidly pro Labour for many years but other non-white voters have always been less polarised - especially as they have become more economically successful. Indeed I think that is also true for A/C voters with the Muslim vote remaining a harder nut to crack for the Tories.
McKay is so un-shy about expressing his blanket contempt that one starts to wonder who this could possibly be for. The only group simpatico to its repellent self-celebratory attitude would be the pocket of liberalism on that same ideological footing, estranging others ostensibly on their side with an air of superiority. The toothless comedy has both the tone and reach of a political Facebook meme sent by a well-meaning elder relative, the point less to critique than reaffirm that we all hate the same sorts of people.
When The Guardian is saying this, you know it's missed the target. I actually watched this on Christmas Day and I thought it had it's moments (there is one very funny bit towards the end). What annoyed me is that there is a very obvious improvement that could have been made to the plot.
Seems to be a lot of very grumpy tv critics around this Christmas, pretty much everything is getting panned e.g.
The Graudian liked the 80 days, but everybody seems to say even beyond all the recasting for diversity, its looked super cheap. Apparently loads of different countries were filmed in the same location in Romania and that Netflix / Amazon would have done better.
The Telegraph TV Critics in particular seem to think absolute everything was trash from "Death to 2021" to "Death in Paradise".
Good news on the Covid front in the Rentool household - my wife's PCR result has come back negative. It looks like the positive LFTs on Christmas Day just caught the back end of an infection. I've tested negative again, so tomorrow we can face the world.
Could have also been a false positive.
0.5% of lft positives are false, so the chances of 2 at the same time are on the slim side
I do think in the late 2010s and into 2019, Labour had lost touch, I am not sure how to put that better.
I have said before, I do think Labour should be in favour of strong controls on immigration now. I am personally pro FOM but it's clear the country is not and we've left the EU now. Is that me disrespecting my principles, I don't know
Despite their improved polling relative to the Tories - the central problem for Labour remains the dichotomy between their 'educated' m/c base in the university towns and big cities and their more traditional supporters from the w/c in the 'red wall' type towns. The views of the former tend to be contemptuous of those of the latter. And it is ever more obvious. I'm not at all sure that they can truly reconcile.
Perhaps. But the Tories have just as big a problem in reconciling the diverse interests of their 'new' white w/c voters in the North and Midlands with their own traditional suburban, rural and middle class base, don't they?
If you look at recent polling the Tories have lost those "new" voters in the North and Midlands and are well on their way to losing those traditional voters too.
Boris with his one rule for you and another for me policy really is a gift that keeps on giving.
Just as well that opinion polls are valid for ever rather than snapshots of views at a specific time. Oh.. wait..they're not. At least actual elections have a more enduring time effect.
Good news on the Covid front in the Rentool household - my wife's PCR result has come back negative. It looks like the positive LFTs on Christmas Day just caught the back end of an infection. I've tested negative again, so tomorrow we can face the world.
Could have also been a false positive.
0.5% of lft positives are false, so the chances of 2 at the same time are on the slim side
Unless there is a systematic error.
Systemic errors are much more likely on the negative side because the user repeats the mistake, such as not sticking it up your nose until it really hurts. Two false positives would be remarkable.
Good news on the Covid front in the Rentool household - my wife's PCR result has come back negative. It looks like the positive LFTs on Christmas Day just caught the back end of an infection. I've tested negative again, so tomorrow we can face the world.
Could have also been a false positive?
She did two and both were positives but very pale lines.
I do think in the late 2010s and into 2019, Labour had lost touch, I am not sure how to put that better.
I have said before, I do think Labour should be in favour of strong controls on immigration now. I am personally pro FOM but it's clear the country is not and we've left the EU now. Is that me disrespecting my principles, I don't know
Despite their improved polling relative to the Tories - the central problem for Labour remains the dichotomy between their 'educated' m/c base in the university towns and big cities and their more traditional supporters from the w/c in the 'red wall' type towns. The views of the former tend to be contemptuous of those of the latter. And it is ever more obvious. I'm not at all sure that they can truly reconcile.
Isn't that precisely the same issue the Tories are encountering in trying to govern?
No - I think their current problems are much more connected to issues around the leadership, 'sleaze' and of course the pandemic.
Good news on the Covid front in the Rentool household - my wife's PCR result has come back negative. It looks like the positive LFTs on Christmas Day just caught the back end of an infection. I've tested negative again, so tomorrow we can face the world.
Positive LFT then negative PCR? Curious surely? Can't be many of those. LFT more lightly to be wrong, but I didn't think LFTs gave false positives (only false negatives).
I do think in the late 2010s and into 2019, Labour had lost touch, I am not sure how to put that better.
I have said before, I do think Labour should be in favour of strong controls on immigration now. I am personally pro FOM but it's clear the country is not and we've left the EU now. Is that me disrespecting my principles, I don't know
Despite their improved polling relative to the Tories - the central problem for Labour remains the dichotomy between their 'educated' m/c base in the university towns and big cities and their more traditional supporters from the w/c in the 'red wall' type towns. The views of the former tend to be contemptuous of those of the latter. And it is ever more obvious. I'm not at all sure that they can truly reconcile.
Perhaps. But the Tories have just as big a problem in reconciling the diverse interests of their 'new' white w/c voters in the North and Midlands with their own traditional suburban, rural and middle class base, don't they?
If you look at recent polling the Tories have lost those "new" voters in the North and Midlands and are well on their way to losing those traditional voters too.
Boris with his one rule for you and another for me policy really is a gift that keeps on giving.
Just as well that opinion polls are valid for ever rather than snapshots of views at a specific time. Oh.. wait..they're not. At least actual elections have a more enduring time effect.
The opinion polls are showing Tory support dripping away - it may not be permanent but looking at what's coming in the next few months I don't see much (any) good news for the current Government.
Good news on the Covid front in the Rentool household - my wife's PCR result has come back negative. It looks like the positive LFTs on Christmas Day just caught the back end of an infection. I've tested negative again, so tomorrow we can face the world.
Positive LFT then negative PCR? Curious surely? Can't be many of those. LFT more lightly to be wrong, but I didn't think LFTs gave false positives (only false negatives).
No, they do give false positives too. Some medicines have been triggering them off (to the extent one colleague of mine had twelve consecutive false positives and was ordered to stop taking them).
I do think in the late 2010s and into 2019, Labour had lost touch, I am not sure how to put that better.
I have said before, I do think Labour should be in favour of strong controls on immigration now. I am personally pro FOM but it's clear the country is not and we've left the EU now. Is that me disrespecting my principles, I don't know
Despite their improved polling relative to the Tories - the central problem for Labour remains the dichotomy between their 'educated' m/c base in the university towns and big cities and their more traditional supporters from the w/c in the 'red wall' type towns. The views of the former tend to be contemptuous of those of the latter. And it is ever more obvious. I'm not at all sure that they can truly reconcile.
Ever less obvious, I'd say - there was an issue there, but the common unenthusiastic (shall we say...) perception of the Government has healed a good deal.
As you are aware polls have a tendency to trend in a variety of directions depending on the daily headlines. I would say the current position is much more related to problems with the government than enthsiasm for the opposition. No doubt time will tell but it's always better if you can win elections every few years rather than a weekly opinion poll for a few months.
As I said, London has some of the worst poverty in the UK. Those people need levelling up just as much as the North.
The issue is that London has massive wealth and relative poverty cheek by jowl. Douglas Adams once wrote something about one street in North London having bands of vast riches and poverty as you walked down it. Public transport is generally brilliant, meaning that someone wanting to raise themselves out of poverty can find the means to do so nearby. Hence all the East London barrowboys who started working in the city.
Some of the northern, Welsh, Scottish and rural towns are very different, with large areas of relative poverty, and very poor transport links, even inside the town, yet alone to other towns. These towns face many problems London will never have.
Sure - but the solution is to level up those places, something I am very much in favour of?
The problem I have is that the Tory approach at present is to attack and destroy London and then just do nothing for the North instead (cutting HS2 etc)
"attack and destroy London..."
You don't think that's a trifle overblown?
Didn't know they were fans of H. G. Wells and W. Le Queux.
Good news on the Covid front in the Rentool household - my wife's PCR result has come back negative. It looks like the positive LFTs on Christmas Day just caught the back end of an infection. I've tested negative again, so tomorrow we can face the world.
Could have also been a false positive?
She did two and both were positives but very pale lines.
Oh, then the probability of that then is incredibly small.
Good article on the maths of incorrect results on LFT and PCR tests...
COVID: why are people testing positive on lateral flow tests then negative on PCR?
It is time to invest now, massive infrastructure projects, proper house building, proper public transport systems in the North, green energy projects.
Labour needs to be unapologetically pro proper social democracy
Yep, with our massive trade surplus, our government surplus, our low level of debt, our readily available surplus of labour and inflation completely under control what could possibly go wrong?
I'm a long-standing advocate of commercial state-owned enterprise. Its what the Germans and others are very good at. Fully privatised are often profiteering monopolies, fully state controlled lack in cash and permission to actually get stuff done.
So lets have an EDF or a Deutsche Bahn. Commercially run with actual industry leaders making them work, but able to borrow at government rates. And actually invest in the things we need which all pay back a return on that investment. Its called capitalism, but when its being done for national strategic reasons there has to be a state framework as well.
When we had publicly owned corporations they were a byword for inefficiency, waste and feather bedding. Its why we privatised them in the 80s and many went on to thrive once their investment decisions actually related to the business under consideration as opposed to overall government spending.
How many have done well David, social housing , energy , rail , telephones , water , etc , all moribund overcharging failures with same monopolies except we have to fund profits as well
I do think in the late 2010s and into 2019, Labour had lost touch, I am not sure how to put that better.
I have said before, I do think Labour should be in favour of strong controls on immigration now. I am personally pro FOM but it's clear the country is not and we've left the EU now. Is that me disrespecting my principles, I don't know
Despite their improved polling relative to the Tories - the central problem for Labour remains the dichotomy between their 'educated' m/c base in the university towns and big cities and their more traditional supporters from the w/c in the 'red wall' type towns. The views of the former tend to be contemptuous of those of the latter. And it is ever more obvious. I'm not at all sure that they can truly reconcile.
Perhaps. But the Tories have just as big a problem in reconciling the diverse interests of their 'new' white w/c voters in the North and Midlands with their own traditional suburban, rural and middle class base, don't they?
If you look at recent polling the Tories have lost those "new" voters in the North and Midlands and are well on their way to losing those traditional voters too.
Boris with his one rule for you and another for me policy really is a gift that keeps on giving.
Just as well that opinion polls are valid for ever rather than snapshots of views at a specific time. Oh.. wait..they're not. At least actual elections have a more enduring time effect.
The opinion polls are showing Tory support dripping away - it may not be permanent but looking at what's coming in the next few months I don't see much (any) good news for the current Government.
Entirely possible but a wiser man then me once muttered something about 'events...' which i think remians very true so I try to avoid too many definite predictions. Probably a result of ageing.
Good news on the Covid front in the Rentool household - my wife's PCR result has come back negative. It looks like the positive LFTs on Christmas Day just caught the back end of an infection. I've tested negative again, so tomorrow we can face the world.
Positive LFT then negative PCR? Curious surely? Can't be many of those. LFT more lightly to be wrong, but I didn't think LFTs gave false positives (only false negatives).
My daughter had the same; positive LFT followed by negative PCR the following day. The red line on the LFT was pretty thin, though.
I do think in the late 2010s and into 2019, Labour had lost touch, I am not sure how to put that better.
I have said before, I do think Labour should be in favour of strong controls on immigration now. I am personally pro FOM but it's clear the country is not and we've left the EU now. Is that me disrespecting my principles, I don't know
Despite their improved polling relative to the Tories - the central problem for Labour remains the dichotomy between their 'educated' m/c base in the university towns and big cities and their more traditional supporters from the w/c in the 'red wall' type towns. The views of the former tend to be contemptuous of those of the latter. And it is ever more obvious. I'm not at all sure that they can truly reconcile.
Perhaps. But the Tories have just as big a problem in reconciling the diverse interests of their 'new' white w/c voters in the North and Midlands with their own traditional suburban, rural and middle class base, don't they?
If you look at recent polling the Tories have lost those "new" voters in the North and Midlands and are well on their way to losing those traditional voters too.
Boris with his one rule for you and another for me policy really is a gift that keeps on giving.
Just as well that opinion polls are valid for ever rather than snapshots of views at a specific time. Oh.. wait..they're not. At least actual elections have a more enduring time effect.
The opinion polls are showing Tory support dripping away - it may not be permanent but looking at what's coming in the next few months I don't see much (any) good news for the current Government.
If Boris Johnson, Dominic Raab and Priti Patel were all stuck at the Amundsen-Scott polar base through the southern winter due to a Covid outbreak, a winter storm of exceptional severity and a plane breaking down, that would be very good news.
McKay is so un-shy about expressing his blanket contempt that one starts to wonder who this could possibly be for. The only group simpatico to its repellent self-celebratory attitude would be the pocket of liberalism on that same ideological footing, estranging others ostensibly on their side with an air of superiority. The toothless comedy has both the tone and reach of a political Facebook meme sent by a well-meaning elder relative, the point less to critique than reaffirm that we all hate the same sorts of people.
When The Guardian is saying this, you know it's missed the target. I actually watched this on Christmas Day and I thought it had it's moments (there is one very funny bit towards the end). What annoyed me is that there is a very obvious improvement that could have been made to the plot.
Seems to be a lot of very grumpy tv critics around this Christmas, pretty much everything is getting panned e.g.
The Graudian liked the 80 days, but everybody seems to say even beyond all the recasting for diversity, its looked super cheap. Apparently loads of different countries were filmed in the same location in Romania and that Netflix / Amazon would have done better.
The Telegraph TV Critics in particular seem to think absolute everything was trash from "Death to 2021" to "Death in Paradise".
I quite enjoyed "Don't Look Up" but agree the satire was rather heavy handed.
British Scandal was good. None of the characters are very likeable, but isn't that the point?
Good news on the Covid front in the Rentool household - my wife's PCR result has come back negative. It looks like the positive LFTs on Christmas Day just caught the back end of an infection. I've tested negative again, so tomorrow we can face the world.
Could have also been a false positive.
0.5% of lft positives are false, so the chances of 2 at the same time are on the slim side
Unless there is a systematic error.
I've used tests from the same batch and got negative results.
Also, we both tested negative using the same batch last Sunday and my wife has now done one today that also showed negative.
No, I think it was a genuine positive, with the worst possible timing.
I do think in the late 2010s and into 2019, Labour had lost touch, I am not sure how to put that better.
I have said before, I do think Labour should be in favour of strong controls on immigration now. I am personally pro FOM but it's clear the country is not and we've left the EU now. Is that me disrespecting my principles, I don't know
Despite their improved polling relative to the Tories - the central problem for Labour remains the dichotomy between their 'educated' m/c base in the university towns and big cities and their more traditional supporters from the w/c in the 'red wall' type towns. The views of the former tend to be contemptuous of those of the latter. And it is ever more obvious. I'm not at all sure that they can truly reconcile.
Perhaps. But the Tories have just as big a problem in reconciling the diverse interests of their 'new' white w/c voters in the North and Midlands with their own traditional suburban, rural and middle class base, don't they?
If you look at recent polling the Tories have lost those "new" voters in the North and Midlands and are well on their way to losing those traditional voters too.
Boris with his one rule for you and another for me policy really is a gift that keeps on giving.
Just as well that opinion polls are valid for ever rather than snapshots of views at a specific time. Oh.. wait..they're not. At least actual elections have a more enduring time effect.
The opinion polls are showing Tory support dripping away - it may not be permanent but looking at what's coming in the next few months I don't see much (any) good news for the current Government.
Entirely possible but a wiser man then me once muttered something about 'events...' which i think remians very true so I try to avoid too many definite predictions. Probably a result of ageing.
Events have a habit of being bad for the current Government - it is rare that "events" result in the Government doing well out of them (the last example of that was the Falklands and I suspect inefficient SDP support may have had an equal or greater impact at the 83 election).
Good news on the Covid front in the Rentool household - my wife's PCR result has come back negative. It looks like the positive LFTs on Christmas Day just caught the back end of an infection. I've tested negative again, so tomorrow we can face the world.
Positive LFT then negative PCR? Curious surely? Can't be many of those. LFT more lightly to be wrong, but I didn't think LFTs gave false positives (only false negatives).
Know at least one person had a false positive LFT. And that was done by a pharmacist, not self-administered.
I do think in the late 2010s and into 2019, Labour had lost touch, I am not sure how to put that better.
I have said before, I do think Labour should be in favour of strong controls on immigration now. I am personally pro FOM but it's clear the country is not and we've left the EU now. Is that me disrespecting my principles, I don't know
Despite their improved polling relative to the Tories - the central problem for Labour remains the dichotomy between their 'educated' m/c base in the university towns and big cities and their more traditional supporters from the w/c in the 'red wall' type towns. The views of the former tend to be contemptuous of those of the latter. And it is ever more obvious. I'm not at all sure that they can truly reconcile.
Perhaps. But the Tories have just as big a problem in reconciling the diverse interests of their 'new' white w/c voters in the North and Midlands with their own traditional suburban, rural and middle class base, don't they?
They didn't last time of course although your point is taken. However, I don't think the w/c voters of , say, Walsall/Blyth/Stockton/Stoke are very different fron their equivalents in Dartford and the Medway towns who have been soldly more and more Tory since the end of the Blair era. Indeed Labour need to be very centrist indeed to win these places over as TB himself proved so effectively and there are many on the left who still cannot forgive him. Not sure also why you reference 'white' voters. The A/C vote and Muslim vote has tended to be solidly pro Labour for many years but other non-white voters have always been less polarised - especially as they have become more economically successful. Indeed I think that is also true for A/C voters with the Muslim vote remaining a harder nut to crack for the Tories.
My specific reference to white w/c was because I think many of this group have (or had in 2019) a strong affinity to a) Brexit, and b) Boris - more so than the non-white w/c. I agree that otherwise the minority ethnic vote is more diverse than previously, though still notably Labour. But my real point was that the Tories are also faced with a dichotomy between their traditional supporters and their new, 2019, voters. Once Brexit was done, and when/if immigration goes off the radar, that coalition is harder to hold together. Both main parties have a challenge, that's all.
I do think in the late 2010s and into 2019, Labour had lost touch, I am not sure how to put that better.
I have said before, I do think Labour should be in favour of strong controls on immigration now. I am personally pro FOM but it's clear the country is not and we've left the EU now. Is that me disrespecting my principles, I don't know
Despite their improved polling relative to the Tories - the central problem for Labour remains the dichotomy between their 'educated' m/c base in the university towns and big cities and their more traditional supporters from the w/c in the 'red wall' type towns. The views of the former tend to be contemptuous of those of the latter. And it is ever more obvious. I'm not at all sure that they can truly reconcile.
Ever less obvious, I'd say - there was an issue there, but the common unenthusiastic (shall we say...) perception of the Government has healed a good deal.
Hi Nick, I hope you are keeping well.
Ironically, I think Johnson has united the Red Wall and the other parts of the Labour coalition once again. Against him and the Tories
It's like waiting for the first English wicket to fall. Longer, in fact.
Way longer.
We haven't actually had to wait for that.
If its really bad would it make sense to recall the England cricket team before we have to close the borders or something and save any further embarrassment?
I do think in the late 2010s and into 2019, Labour had lost touch, I am not sure how to put that better.
I have said before, I do think Labour should be in favour of strong controls on immigration now. I am personally pro FOM but it's clear the country is not and we've left the EU now. Is that me disrespecting my principles, I don't know
Despite their improved polling relative to the Tories - the central problem for Labour remains the dichotomy between their 'educated' m/c base in the university towns and big cities and their more traditional supporters from the w/c in the 'red wall' type towns. The views of the former tend to be contemptuous of those of the latter. And it is ever more obvious. I'm not at all sure that they can truly reconcile.
Perhaps. But the Tories have just as big a problem in reconciling the diverse interests of their 'new' white w/c voters in the North and Midlands with their own traditional suburban, rural and middle class base, don't they?
If you look at recent polling the Tories have lost those "new" voters in the North and Midlands and are well on their way to losing those traditional voters too.
Boris with his one rule for you and another for me policy really is a gift that keeps on giving.
Just as well that opinion polls are valid for ever rather than snapshots of views at a specific time. Oh.. wait..they're not. At least actual elections have a more enduring time effect.
The opinion polls are showing Tory support dripping away - it may not be permanent but looking at what's coming in the next few months I don't see much (any) good news for the current Government.
Entirely possible but a wiser man then me once muttered something about 'events...' which i think remians very true so I try to avoid too many definite predictions. Probably a result of ageing.
He was in government at the time. Events are bad for governments.
My prediction for 2022 is a Boris-specific financial scandal which has yet to break, say a million quid int free loan to help him with the alimony.
McKay is so un-shy about expressing his blanket contempt that one starts to wonder who this could possibly be for. The only group simpatico to its repellent self-celebratory attitude would be the pocket of liberalism on that same ideological footing, estranging others ostensibly on their side with an air of superiority. The toothless comedy has both the tone and reach of a political Facebook meme sent by a well-meaning elder relative, the point less to critique than reaffirm that we all hate the same sorts of people.
When The Guardian is saying this, you know it's missed the target. I actually watched this on Christmas Day and I thought it had it's moments (there is one very funny bit towards the end). What annoyed me is that there is a very obvious improvement that could have been made to the plot.
Seems to be a lot of very grumpy tv critics around this Christmas, pretty much everything is getting panned e.g.
The Graudian liked the 80 days, but everybody seems to say even beyond all the recasting for diversity, its looked super cheap. Apparently loads of different countries were filmed in the same location in Romania and that Netflix / Amazon would have done better.
The Telegraph TV Critics in particular seem to think absolute everything was trash from "Death to 2021" to "Death in Paradise".
I quite enjoyed "Don't Look Up" but agree the satire was rather heavy handed.
British Scandal was good. None of the characters are very likeable, but isn't that the point?
The 'Young Duke' was more of a bastard than I had been led to believe, TBH! I don't know we are expected to have any regard for people like him.(Nearly wrote 'of his class")
McKay is so un-shy about expressing his blanket contempt that one starts to wonder who this could possibly be for. The only group simpatico to its repellent self-celebratory attitude would be the pocket of liberalism on that same ideological footing, estranging others ostensibly on their side with an air of superiority. The toothless comedy has both the tone and reach of a political Facebook meme sent by a well-meaning elder relative, the point less to critique than reaffirm that we all hate the same sorts of people.
When The Guardian is saying this, you know it's missed the target. I actually watched this on Christmas Day and I thought it had it's moments (there is one very funny bit towards the end). What annoyed me is that there is a very obvious improvement that could have been made to the plot.
Seems to be a lot of very grumpy tv critics around this Christmas, pretty much everything is getting panned e.g.
The Graudian liked the 80 days, but everybody seems to say even beyond all the recasting for diversity, its looked super cheap. Apparently loads of different countries were filmed in the same location in Romania and that Netflix / Amazon would have done better.
The Telegraph TV Critics in particular seem to think absolute everything was trash from "Death to 2021" to "Death in Paradise".
My biggest disappointment this year was Strictly - the cloying, sugar laced pandering to all things woke, the endless desperate pleas of Claudia for contestants/stars to declare lifelong friendships for each other, the ridiculous over-marking of all and sundry. At one point the head judge seemed to suggest one dance might resonate around the world [ I may have dreamt that bit!]. At one time the Beeb had an instinct for when to stop after a good run. That time is well and truly passed with this programme.
I think the Red Wall really gave the Tories one chance - and I don't know what people are saying on the ground so please do correct me if I am wrong - but I think the Tories have done everything possible to shatter the image they've changed.
It's why I think it's rather naive and/or condescending to suggest that if Johnson goes, the Red Wall will forget. I think they're far more intelligent than that
I do think in the late 2010s and into 2019, Labour had lost touch, I am not sure how to put that better.
I have said before, I do think Labour should be in favour of strong controls on immigration now. I am personally pro FOM but it's clear the country is not and we've left the EU now. Is that me disrespecting my principles, I don't know
Despite their improved polling relative to the Tories - the central problem for Labour remains the dichotomy between their 'educated' m/c base in the university towns and big cities and their more traditional supporters from the w/c in the 'red wall' type towns. The views of the former tend to be contemptuous of those of the latter. And it is ever more obvious. I'm not at all sure that they can truly reconcile.
Perhaps. But the Tories have just as big a problem in reconciling the diverse interests of their 'new' white w/c voters in the North and Midlands with their own traditional suburban, rural and middle class base, don't they?
If you look at recent polling the Tories have lost those "new" voters in the North and Midlands and are well on their way to losing those traditional voters too.
Boris with his one rule for you and another for me policy really is a gift that keeps on giving.
Just as well that opinion polls are valid for ever rather than snapshots of views at a specific time. Oh.. wait..they're not. At least actual elections have a more enduring time effect.
The opinion polls are showing Tory support dripping away - it may not be permanent but looking at what's coming in the next few months I don't see much (any) good news for the current Government.
Besides- it's not that long ago that it looked like the Conservative floor was about 40% (checks- they just about dipped below that this time last year, at the peak of the Christmas fiasco before vaccines came on stream, then stayed above 40% until mid October 2021.)
There was plausibility underpinning that floor- it was the "we trust Boris with Brexit and we don't trust anyone else" vote, and it mattered. At 40% support, especially mid-term (though I have my doubts about 2021 being really mid-term), it's hard to chuck a government out.
The fall in Conservative support doesn't change the numerical reality in the House of Commons, and it doesn't tell us much about the next General Election. But a door that looked securely locked and bolted has been shown to be openable. Part of the way the future plays out will depend on how all parties respond to that new information.
I think the Red Wall really gave the Tories one chance - and I don't know what people are saying on the ground so please do correct me if I am wrong - but I think the Tories have done everything possible to shatter the image they've changed.
It's why I think it's rather naive and/or condescending to suggest that if Johnson goes, the Red Wall will forget. I think they're far more intelligent than that
It's really very simple, without NPR and HS2E (alongside the other investment that was promised and has seemingly disappeared) the seats will return to their default position of relatively safe Labour seats.
Data coming through now on the website. Basically looks like 3 days of estimated at ~115-130k range. Doesn't seem like Scotland and Wales reported every day of the past 3, so just adding on a rough guess.
I do think in the late 2010s and into 2019, Labour had lost touch, I am not sure how to put that better.
I have said before, I do think Labour should be in favour of strong controls on immigration now. I am personally pro FOM but it's clear the country is not and we've left the EU now. Is that me disrespecting my principles, I don't know
Despite their improved polling relative to the Tories - the central problem for Labour remains the dichotomy between their 'educated' m/c base in the university towns and big cities and their more traditional supporters from the w/c in the 'red wall' type towns. The views of the former tend to be contemptuous of those of the latter. And it is ever more obvious. I'm not at all sure that they can truly reconcile.
Perhaps. But the Tories have just as big a problem in reconciling the diverse interests of their 'new' white w/c voters in the North and Midlands with their own traditional suburban, rural and middle class base, don't they?
If you look at recent polling the Tories have lost those "new" voters in the North and Midlands and are well on their way to losing those traditional voters too.
Boris with his one rule for you and another for me policy really is a gift that keeps on giving.
Just as well that opinion polls are valid for ever rather than snapshots of views at a specific time. Oh.. wait..they're not. At least actual elections have a more enduring time effect.
The opinion polls are showing Tory support dripping away - it may not be permanent but looking at what's coming in the next few months I don't see much (any) good news for the current Government.
Entirely possible but a wiser man then me once muttered something about 'events...' which i think remians very true so I try to avoid too many definite predictions. Probably a result of ageing.
He was in government at the time. Events are bad for governments.
My prediction for 2022 is a Boris-specific financial scandal which has yet to break, say a million quid int free loan to help him with the alimony.
For much of the pandemic [an event] it was great for the government. Truth is we none of us know that's all.
I think the Red Wall really gave the Tories one chance - and I don't know what people are saying on the ground so please do correct me if I am wrong - but I think the Tories have done everything possible to shatter the image they've changed.
It's why I think it's rather naive and/or condescending to suggest that if Johnson goes, the Red Wall will forget. I think they're far more intelligent than that
It's really very simple, without NPR and HS2E (alongside the other investment that was promised and has seemingly disappeared) the seats will return to their default position of relatively safe Labour seats.
Do you honestly think it is that simple? I think there was this idea that Johnson's Tories were different to what had come before - but the sleaze scandals have totally undone that image.
Data coming through now on the website. Basically looks like 3 days of 110-130k (doesn't seem like Scotland and Wales reported every day of the past 3).
Data coming through now on the website. Basically looks like 3 days of estimated at ~115-130k range. Doesn't seem like Scotland and Wales reported every day of the past 3, so just adding on a rough guess.
No blow off top....YET....
Bit of a muddle but these are not the scary numbers some were predicting.
I do think in the late 2010s and into 2019, Labour had lost touch, I am not sure how to put that better.
I have said before, I do think Labour should be in favour of strong controls on immigration now. I am personally pro FOM but it's clear the country is not and we've left the EU now. Is that me disrespecting my principles, I don't know
Despite their improved polling relative to the Tories - the central problem for Labour remains the dichotomy between their 'educated' m/c base in the university towns and big cities and their more traditional supporters from the w/c in the 'red wall' type towns. The views of the former tend to be contemptuous of those of the latter. And it is ever more obvious. I'm not at all sure that they can truly reconcile.
Perhaps. But the Tories have just as big a problem in reconciling the diverse interests of their 'new' white w/c voters in the North and Midlands with their own traditional suburban, rural and middle class base, don't they?
If you look at recent polling the Tories have lost those "new" voters in the North and Midlands and are well on their way to losing those traditional voters too.
Boris with his one rule for you and another for me policy really is a gift that keeps on giving.
Just as well that opinion polls are valid for ever rather than snapshots of views at a specific time. Oh.. wait..they're not. At least actual elections have a more enduring time effect.
The opinion polls are showing Tory support dripping away - it may not be permanent but looking at what's coming in the next few months I don't see much (any) good news for the current Government.
Besides- it's not that long ago that it looked like the Conservative floor was about 40% (checks- they just about dipped below that this time last year, at the peak of the Christmas fiasco before vaccines came on stream, then stayed above 40% until mid October 2021.)
There was plausibility underpinning that floor- it was the "we trust Boris with Brexit and we don't trust anyone else" vote, and it mattered. At 40% support, especially mid-term (though I have my doubts about 2021 being really mid-term), it's hard to chuck a government out.
The fall in Conservative support doesn't change the numerical reality in the House of Commons, and it doesn't tell us much about the next General Election. But a door that looked securely locked and bolted has been shown to be openable. Part of the way the future plays out will depend on how all parties respond to that new information.
Fully agree. As a Conservative supporter of many years I never assumed the post 2019 situation was permanent. The voters constantly tell ALL politicians that they are expendable. It's the essence of our democracy and a very good thing.
I do think in the late 2010s and into 2019, Labour had lost touch, I am not sure how to put that better.
I have said before, I do think Labour should be in favour of strong controls on immigration now. I am personally pro FOM but it's clear the country is not and we've left the EU now. Is that me disrespecting my principles, I don't know
Despite their improved polling relative to the Tories - the central problem for Labour remains the dichotomy between their 'educated' m/c base in the university towns and big cities and their more traditional supporters from the w/c in the 'red wall' type towns. The views of the former tend to be contemptuous of those of the latter. And it is ever more obvious. I'm not at all sure that they can truly reconcile.
Perhaps. But the Tories have just as big a problem in reconciling the diverse interests of their 'new' white w/c voters in the North and Midlands with their own traditional suburban, rural and middle class base, don't they?
If you look at recent polling the Tories have lost those "new" voters in the North and Midlands and are well on their way to losing those traditional voters too.
Boris with his one rule for you and another for me policy really is a gift that keeps on giving.
Just as well that opinion polls are valid for ever rather than snapshots of views at a specific time. Oh.. wait..they're not. At least actual elections have a more enduring time effect.
The opinion polls are showing Tory support dripping away - it may not be permanent but looking at what's coming in the next few months I don't see much (any) good news for the current Government.
Entirely possible but a wiser man then me once muttered something about 'events...' which i think remians very true so I try to avoid too many definite predictions. Probably a result of ageing.
He was in government at the time. Events are bad for governments.
My prediction for 2022 is a Boris-specific financial scandal which has yet to break, say a million quid int free loan to help him with the alimony.
For much of the pandemic [an event] it was great for the government. Truth is we none of us know that's all.
Eh? Was it?
It was good during the vaccine bounce last year but apart from that, it was pretty terrible
I think the Red Wall really gave the Tories one chance - and I don't know what people are saying on the ground so please do correct me if I am wrong - but I think the Tories have done everything possible to shatter the image they've changed.
It's why I think it's rather naive and/or condescending to suggest that if Johnson goes, the Red Wall will forget. I think they're far more intelligent than that
It's really very simple, without NPR and HS2E (alongside the other investment that was promised and has seemingly disappeared) the seats will return to their default position of relatively safe Labour seats.
Do you honestly think it is that simple? I think there was this idea that Johnson's Tories were different to what had come before - but the sleaze scandals have totally undone that image.
Oh there is a lot more too it than just disappearing investment but I suspect a lot of things would be ignored if come 2023 people felt better off than in 2019.
Trouble is I just don't see how the Tories got to that point from here so what they are left with is a few u-turns attached to the promise of some jam tomorrow because otherwise they've already lost.
Boosters Competition non-update: there will be an update once all nations have reported, expected on Wednesday, partial numbers reported today strongly suggest that @Northern_Al will remain in pole position.
I think the Red Wall really gave the Tories one chance - and I don't know what people are saying on the ground so please do correct me if I am wrong - but I think the Tories have done everything possible to shatter the image they've changed.
It's why I think it's rather naive and/or condescending to suggest that if Johnson goes, the Red Wall will forget. I think they're far more intelligent than that
It's really very simple, without NPR and HS2E (alongside the other investment that was promised and has seemingly disappeared) the seats will return to their default position of relatively safe Labour seats.
Do you honestly think it is that simple? I think there was this idea that Johnson's Tories were different to what had come before - but the sleaze scandals have totally undone that image.
Don't forget the 'Red Wall' isn't one homogeneous block either. Just because Wakefield reverts in a fury at being ignored over HS2 doesn't mean Newcastle under Lyme will.
I think the Red Wall really gave the Tories one chance - and I don't know what people are saying on the ground so please do correct me if I am wrong - but I think the Tories have done everything possible to shatter the image they've changed.
It's why I think it's rather naive and/or condescending to suggest that if Johnson goes, the Red Wall will forget. I think they're far more intelligent than that
It's really very simple, without NPR and HS2E (alongside the other investment that was promised and has seemingly disappeared) the seats will return to their default position of relatively safe Labour seats.
Do you honestly think it is that simple? I think there was this idea that Johnson's Tories were different to what had come before - but the sleaze scandals have totally undone that image.
Oh there is a lot more too it than just disappearing investment but I suspect a lot of things would be ignored if come 2023 people felt better off than in 2019.
Trouble is I just don't see how the Tories got to that point from here so what they are left with is a few u-turns attached to the promise of some jam tomorrow because otherwise they've already lost.
I see what you mean, in that voters were expecting changes and with a massive majority, you wonder why so little has been achieved. I totally agree with what you're saying.
Boosters Competition non-update: there will be an update once all nations have reported, expected on Wednesday, partial numbers reported today strongly suggest that @Northern_Al will remain in pole position.
Data coming through now on the website. Basically looks like 3 days of estimated at ~115-130k range. Doesn't seem like Scotland and Wales reported every day of the past 3, so just adding on a rough guess.
No blow off top....YET....
Bit of a muddle but these are not the scary numbers some were predicting.
If one was rather cynical, some naughty people might have decided not to test themselves the past couple of days if they were having Christmas with family they didn't judge vulnerable and I doubt they are going down the PCR testing centre on Christmas Day / Boxing Day as a precaution.
I do think in the late 2010s and into 2019, Labour had lost touch, I am not sure how to put that better.
I have said before, I do think Labour should be in favour of strong controls on immigration now. I am personally pro FOM but it's clear the country is not and we've left the EU now. Is that me disrespecting my principles, I don't know
Despite their improved polling relative to the Tories - the central problem for Labour remains the dichotomy between their 'educated' m/c base in the university towns and big cities and their more traditional supporters from the w/c in the 'red wall' type towns. The views of the former tend to be contemptuous of those of the latter. And it is ever more obvious. I'm not at all sure that they can truly reconcile.
Perhaps. But the Tories have just as big a problem in reconciling the diverse interests of their 'new' white w/c voters in the North and Midlands with their own traditional suburban, rural and middle class base, don't they?
If you look at recent polling the Tories have lost those "new" voters in the North and Midlands and are well on their way to losing those traditional voters too.
Boris with his one rule for you and another for me policy really is a gift that keeps on giving.
Just as well that opinion polls are valid for ever rather than snapshots of views at a specific time. Oh.. wait..they're not. At least actual elections have a more enduring time effect.
The opinion polls are showing Tory support dripping away - it may not be permanent but looking at what's coming in the next few months I don't see much (any) good news for the current Government.
Entirely possible but a wiser man then me once muttered something about 'events...' which i think remians very true so I try to avoid too many definite predictions. Probably a result of ageing.
He was in government at the time. Events are bad for governments.
My prediction for 2022 is a Boris-specific financial scandal which has yet to break, say a million quid int free loan to help him with the alimony.
For much of the pandemic [an event] it was great for the government. Truth is we none of us know that's all.
Eh? Was it?
It was good during the vaccine bounce last year but apart from that, it was pretty terrible
The polls held up very well for the Tories for quite a while amidst some very gloomy data - not least because the opposition has been very poor. Recently things are much less good. Will be interesting to see how things pan out but I think anything beyond the next few weeks at most remains very uncertain. Anyone who thinks otherwise right now would be pretty foolish.
Comments
But you are right without the infrastructure projects no-one is going to invest in the North. And guess what infrastructure projects have been cut (everything in the North East)..
Expect there will have been a big increase in testing on Xmas Eve/Xmas day. But maybe many won’t have been reported? Meanwhile still expecting case rises once all other factors removed.
Christmas cranked up to 11: why Die Hard 2 (not 1) is the greatest festive film
In 1990, Bruce Willis’s second seasonal firefight took everything good about the 1988 original – and upped the body-count
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/films/0/christmas-cranked-11-die-hard-2-better-festive-film-original/
Your online persona is much more rotund. Hope that cheers you up.
Whereas in the north what they too often get is low-skilled labour which can live off the dole or on public sector salaries, taxes that are far too high and an ever more intrusive state.
I am not sure we will see anything like that high, not everybody tests themselves morning, noon and night, nor will go and get tested when they have cold like symptoms (or rather naughtily not report a positive test). Furthermore, as far as I know, they still aren't including reinfections in the numbers.
You don't think that's a trifle overblown?
What kind of biscuits? And can someone other than @Leon lead the panic this time? I know he does a good panic, but I think we need to change the lineup....
Boris with his one rule for you and another for me policy really is a gift that keeps on giving.
It appears that Hancock didn't actually know this guy, he didn't even have his number, it was a neighbour of Hancock who gave him the number. And he actually did have a manufacturing company, so the "Hancock mate who runs the local boozer and no idea about manufacturing" isn't really true.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-suffolk-59521231
There seem to be a fair few about.
I believe they are looking at them behind the scenes, as I have seen some stats somewhere about reinfection rates.
McKay is so un-shy about expressing his blanket contempt that one starts to wonder who this could possibly be for. The only group simpatico to its repellent self-celebratory attitude would be the pocket of liberalism on that same ideological footing, estranging others ostensibly on their side with an air of superiority. The toothless comedy has both the tone and reach of a political Facebook meme sent by a well-meaning elder relative, the point less to critique than reaffirm that we all hate the same sorts of people.
When The Guardian is saying this, you know it's missed the target. I actually watched this on Christmas Day and I thought it had it's moments (there is one very funny bit towards the end). What annoyed me is that there is a very obvious improvement that could have been made to the plot.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/tv/0/british-scandal-review-poor-attempt-redeeming-truly-unlikeable/
https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/reviews/around-the-world-in-80-days-david-tennant-b1981474.html
https://www.mirror.co.uk/tv/tv-news/top-gear-viewers-not-impressed-25783874
The Graudian liked the 80 days, but everybody seems to say even beyond all the recasting for diversity, its looked super cheap. Apparently loads of different countries were filmed in the same location in Romania and that Netflix / Amazon would have done better.
The Telegraph TV Critics in particular seem to think absolute everything was trash from "Death to 2021" to "Death in Paradise".
Good article on the maths of incorrect results on LFT and PCR tests...
COVID: why are people testing positive on lateral flow tests then negative on PCR?
https://theconversation.com/covid-why-are-people-testing-positive-on-lateral-flow-tests-then-negative-on-pcr-169502
It just isn't terribly likely.
British Scandal was good. None of the characters are very likeable, but isn't that the point?
Also, we both tested negative using the same batch last Sunday and my wife has now done one today that also showed negative.
No, I think it was a genuine positive, with the worst possible timing.
Way longer.
And that was done by a pharmacist, not self-administered.
Ironically, I think Johnson has united the Red Wall and the other parts of the Labour coalition once again. Against him and the Tories
My prediction for 2022 is a Boris-specific financial scandal which has yet to break, say a million quid int free loan to help him with the alimony.
It's why I think it's rather naive and/or condescending to suggest that if Johnson goes, the Red Wall will forget. I think they're far more intelligent than that
There was plausibility underpinning that floor- it was the "we trust Boris with Brexit and we don't trust anyone else" vote, and it mattered. At 40% support, especially mid-term (though I have my doubts about 2021 being really mid-term), it's hard to chuck a government out.
The fall in Conservative support doesn't change the numerical reality in the House of Commons, and it doesn't tell us much about the next General Election. But a door that looked securely locked and bolted has been shown to be openable. Part of the way the future plays out will depend on how all parties respond to that new information.
No blow off top....YET....
25 December 2021
England
Daily: 113,628
Cumulative: 10,229,538
Scotland
Daily: 0
Cumulative: 831,158
Wales
Daily: 0
Cumulative: 577,043
Northern Ireland
Daily: 0
Cumulative: 367,181
UK
Daily: 113,628
Cumulative: 0
26 December 2021
England
Daily: 103,558
Cumulative: 10,332,128
Scotland
Daily: 0
Cumulative: 831,158
Wales
Daily: 5,335
Cumulative: 582,378
Northern Ireland
Daily: 0
Cumulative: 367,181
UK
Daily: 108,893
Cumulative: 12,112,845
27 December 2021
England
Daily: 98,515
Cumulative: 10,429,274
Scotland
Daily: 0
Cumulative: 831,158
Wales
Daily: 0
Cumulative: 582,378
Northern Ireland
Daily: 0
Cumulative: 367,181
UK
Daily: 98,515
Cumulative: 12,209,991
Basically these are England figures with a bit for Wales.
It was good during the vaccine bounce last year but apart from that, it was pretty terrible
Trouble is I just don't see how the Tories got to that point from here so what they are left with is a few u-turns attached to the promise of some jam tomorrow because otherwise they've already lost.
Basically for a lot of the important things we need to know about, we aren't yet in a position to have the data that answers the question.