153,690 booster jabs reported in 🏴 on Christmas Eve 10,477 booster jabs reported in 🏴 on Christmas Day 20,278 booster jabs reported in 🏴 on Boxing Day
As I predicted, nobody is nipping down to get a jab on Christmas Day / Boxing Day and potentially feeling crap (while not adding protection for the big day). It will be interesting to see if it picks up this week. I think we will struggle to get past a million on any day.
Only a tiny rise in England ventilated patients though,
Ventilated patients number will only start to rise in another week or so based on the experience of Delta and previous variants.
Basically for a lot of the important things we need to know about, we aren't yet in a position to have the data that answers the question.
A question. Omicron is a disease of the upper respiratory tract. Therefore, should we be expecting anyone to need ventilation at all, as it isn't in the lungs?
Data coming through now on the website. Basically looks like 3 days of estimated at ~115-130k range. Doesn't seem like Scotland and Wales reported every day of the past 3, so just adding on a rough guess.
No blow off top....YET....
Bit of a muddle but these are not the scary numbers some were predicting.
If one was rather cynical, some naughty people might have decided not to test themselves the past couple of days if they were having Christmas with family they didn't judge vulnerable and I doubt they are going down the PCR testing centre on Christmas Day / Boxing Day as a precaution.
As a more cynical fellow... What are the odds folk would rather be positive after rather than before 4 Bank Holidays?
I think the Red Wall really gave the Tories one chance - and I don't know what people are saying on the ground so please do correct me if I am wrong - but I think the Tories have done everything possible to shatter the image they've changed.
It's why I think it's rather naive and/or condescending to suggest that if Johnson goes, the Red Wall will forget. I think they're far more intelligent than that
It's really very simple, without NPR and HS2E (alongside the other investment that was promised and has seemingly disappeared) the seats will return to their default position of relatively safe Labour seats.
Do you honestly think it is that simple? I think there was this idea that Johnson's Tories were different to what had come before - but the sleaze scandals have totally undone that image.
Don't forget the 'Red Wall' isn't one homogeneous block either. Just because Wakefield reverts in a fury at being ignored over HS2 doesn't mean Newcastle under Lyme will.
True but if you are talking about Red Wall seats that have supposedly done well out of this Government than Darlington is the prime example.
And looking round here while we have done well (heck Treasury North with 1000 other departmental jobs to allow the departments to have some say in decisions made up there) nothing is going to appear in the timeframe that rescues our Tory MP from seeming to have failed to deliver...
I think the Red Wall really gave the Tories one chance - and I don't know what people are saying on the ground so please do correct me if I am wrong - but I think the Tories have done everything possible to shatter the image they've changed.
It's why I think it's rather naive and/or condescending to suggest that if Johnson goes, the Red Wall will forget. I think they're far more intelligent than that
It's really very simple, without NPR and HS2E (alongside the other investment that was promised and has seemingly disappeared) the seats will return to their default position of relatively safe Labour seats.
Do you honestly think it is that simple? I think there was this idea that Johnson's Tories were different to what had come before - but the sleaze scandals have totally undone that image.
Don't forget the 'Red Wall' isn't one homogeneous block either. Just because Wakefield reverts in a fury at being ignored over HS2 doesn't mean Newcastle under Lyme will.
True but if you are talking about Red Wall seats that have supposedly done well out of this Government than Darlington is the prime example.
And looking round here while we have done well (heck Treasury North with 1000 other departmental jobs to allow the departments to have some say in decisions made up there) nothing is going to appear in the timeframe that rescues our Tory MP from seeming to have failed to deliver...
And what do you hear from people on the ground in Darlington?
I think the Red Wall really gave the Tories one chance - and I don't know what people are saying on the ground so please do correct me if I am wrong - but I think the Tories have done everything possible to shatter the image they've changed.
It's why I think it's rather naive and/or condescending to suggest that if Johnson goes, the Red Wall will forget. I think they're far more intelligent than that
It's really very simple, without NPR and HS2E (alongside the other investment that was promised and has seemingly disappeared) the seats will return to their default position of relatively safe Labour seats.
Do you honestly think it is that simple? I think there was this idea that Johnson's Tories were different to what had come before - but the sleaze scandals have totally undone that image.
Don't forget the 'Red Wall' isn't one homogeneous block either. Just because Wakefield reverts in a fury at being ignored over HS2 doesn't mean Newcastle under Lyme will.
There may be places which want HS2 but I doubt Wakefield is one of them.
Unless that is it is filled with voters desperate to travel by train to Birmingham quicker.
Data coming through now on the website. Basically looks like 3 days of estimated at ~115-130k range. Doesn't seem like Scotland and Wales reported every day of the past 3, so just adding on a rough guess.
No blow off top....YET....
Bit of a muddle but these are not the scary numbers some were predicting.
If one was rather cynical, some naughty people might have decided not to test themselves the past couple of days if they were having Christmas with family they didn't judge vulnerable and I doubt they are going down the PCR testing centre on Christmas Day / Boxing Day as a precaution.
As a more cynical fellow... What are the odds folk would rather be positive after rather than before 4 Bank Holidays?
I bet we see massive amount of self testing on 2nd / 3rd Jan.....can't be too careful, 5th LFT of the day...oh shucks I can't go back to work...
McKay is so un-shy about expressing his blanket contempt that one starts to wonder who this could possibly be for. The only group simpatico to its repellent self-celebratory attitude would be the pocket of liberalism on that same ideological footing, estranging others ostensibly on their side with an air of superiority. The toothless comedy has both the tone and reach of a political Facebook meme sent by a well-meaning elder relative, the point less to critique than reaffirm that we all hate the same sorts of people.
When The Guardian is saying this, you know it's missed the target. I actually watched this on Christmas Day and I thought it had it's moments (there is one very funny bit towards the end). What annoyed me is that there is a very obvious improvement that could have been made to the plot.
Seems to be a lot of very grumpy tv critics around this Christmas, pretty much everything is getting panned e.g.
The Graudian liked the 80 days, but everybody seems to say even beyond all the recasting for diversity, its looked super cheap. Apparently loads of different countries were filmed in the same location in Romania and that Netflix / Amazon would have done better.
The Telegraph TV Critics in particular seem to think absolute everything was trash from "Death to 2021" to "Death in Paradise".
I quite enjoyed "Don't Look Up" but agree the satire was rather heavy handed.
British Scandal was good. None of the characters are very likeable, but isn't that the point?
Having all your characters unlikeable is a hard trick to sustain, scintillating dialogue (eg Succession) is about the only way out of it, not sure AVBS pulled it off. At least I now know Inverrara is the posho wanker pronounciation of Inverary.
It is time to invest now, massive infrastructure projects, proper house building, proper public transport systems in the North, green energy projects.
Labour needs to be unapologetically pro proper social democracy
Yep, with our massive trade surplus, our government surplus, our low level of debt, our readily available surplus of labour and inflation completely under control what could possibly go wrong?
Like a company, you can't cut your way to sustainable profitability. Rationalisation and job cuts are only half the story, the other half is achieving some kind of growth. My former employer realised this in the early 2010s and actually began investing in the core business and it has grown 10x in value since the worst days when they started the investment plans and looked beyond job cuts.
So, the question becomes, what is our core business, and what more can we do to help the financial services industry?
I'm not sure this logic leads to investing in the North being a good idea. Unfortunately.
Surely as a nation our 'core business' is the 67 million people who live in this country?
If people in the North are not as productive as can be, then our core business of the nation isn't operating as it should be, and we should figure out why.
Treasury analysis that says "this part of the country is overheating, so lets spend more money there" is part of the problem that means the core business hasn't been working as it should.
That's not really the point - the issue is that the country's economic fundamentals are very broken and need fixing. Max is making the point that, by analogy to a company, you can't fix the problems by cutting everything until it works again; you need to refocus on things that make money and do more of those. I sort of agree with this, but I don't think that line of thinking logically leads towards borrowing money to build lots of infrastructure in the North. Maybe it does, but it feels more like we might bankrupt the country before we see a return.
There is actually plenty of money being spent in the North - 60%+ of the GDP of the north is the government, compared to about a third in London. The trouble is, it's spent in a way which could have been designed to do maximum economic damage. It goes on inflated public sector salaries, which are similar to those in the south, despite a vastly lower cost of living, welfare benefits and so on. This creates a hugely damaging dependency culture and throttles private enterprise by increases the price of inputs and reducing the rate of return there.
So rather than subsidising dependency in the north, regional policy should subsidise enterprise, by cutting taxes, cutting public spending, axing damaging regulations and promoting infrastructure and other business-friendly spending. If that doesn't restore dynamism to the north, nothing will.
I think the Red Wall really gave the Tories one chance - and I don't know what people are saying on the ground so please do correct me if I am wrong - but I think the Tories have done everything possible to shatter the image they've changed.
It's why I think it's rather naive and/or condescending to suggest that if Johnson goes, the Red Wall will forget. I think they're far more intelligent than that
The government isn't entirely done yet. Clearly the last couple of months have been a political disaster. The issues that have made it so though aren't really the material ones. The press tries to make out that the government is messing up on covid etc of course, but it isn't. It has messed up entirely on sleeze and the look and feel.
Two years in and there are some bits and pieces that suggest that the government is serious about helping the forgotten north. Gove, despite his slight odiousness, is pretty capable. And as this is all he's got he's not going to sit on his hands.
I think there's a real chance that this government will help the North.
Nothing can excuse the Paterson affair. The party stuff is just froth - hardly good, but doesn't matter. Otherwise the government is governing and not doing so badly given the headwinds. They've just handed away 10% or so support for no reason at all.
Only a tiny rise in England ventilated patients though,
Ventilated patients number will only start to rise in another week or so based on the experience of Delta and previous variants.
Basically for a lot of the important things we need to know about, we aren't yet in a position to have the data that answers the question.
A question. Omicron is a disease of the upper respiratory tract. Therefore, should we be expecting anyone to need ventilation at all, as it isn't in the lungs?
Omicron seems to be a disease of the upper respiratory tract. The question is what does it look like in non-mild cases - which is something we sadly don't know enough about yet..
So as expected Christmas confusion as to the covid data which will not sort itself out for maybe another 10 days.
The drop in vaccinations was more than I expected though.
I'd be interested to know what the vaccinating capacity was for the last three days.
Were people unable to get vaccinated because the capacity wasn't there ? Was the capacity there but people wanted to do Christmas things instead ? Was the capacity there but the demand limit is being approached ?
Only a tiny rise in England ventilated patients though,
Ventilated patients number will only start to rise in another week or so based on the experience of Delta and previous variants.
Basically for a lot of the important things we need to know about, we aren't yet in a position to have the data that answers the question.
A question. Omicron is a disease of the upper respiratory tract. Therefore, should we be expecting anyone to need ventilation at all, as it isn't in the lungs?
AIUI Covid is a disease of both the upper respiratory tract and the lungs. Previous variants were bad in that they seemed to 'prefer' the lungs, causing the issues we have seen. There are indications omicron is the other way around: it 'prefers' the upper respiratory tract. However, it can still cause problems with the lungs in the susceptible or unfortunate.
So as expected Christmas confusion as to the covid data which will not sort itself out for maybe another 10 days.
The drop in vaccinations was more than I expected though.
I'd be interested to know what the vaccinating capacity was for the last three days.
Were people unable to get vaccinated because the capacity wasn't there ? Was the capacity there but people wanted to do Christmas things instead ? Was the capacity there but the demand limit is being approached ?
One thing is for certain, the target / aspiration is going to be missed by miles.
Only a tiny rise in England ventilated patients though,
Ventilated patients number will only start to rise in another week or so based on the experience of Delta and previous variants.
Basically for a lot of the important things we need to know about, we aren't yet in a position to have the data that answers the question.
London in hospital (top) ventilated (bottom) since May this year.
We absolutely should have seen a surge in ventilated cases by now if there was going to be a tearaway surge.
Don't get me wrong, ventilated vases are rising, but at a much lower proportion than Delta.
Oh don't take my comments as me thinking Omicron is going to have a nasty surprise, Its more that I don't think we have enough evidence yet to actually say something with 100% or even 75% confidence.
So as expected Christmas confusion as to the covid data which will not sort itself out for maybe another 10 days.
The drop in vaccinations was more than I expected though.
I'd be interested to know what the vaccinating capacity was for the last three days.
Were people unable to get vaccinated because the capacity wasn't there ? Was the capacity there but people wanted to do Christmas things instead ? Was the capacity there but the demand limit is being approached ?
One thing is for certain, the target / aspiration is going to be missed by miles.
I think a fair bit of the data issues may be reporting delays - will all the subsidiary organisations have been feeding data into the system?
I think the Red Wall really gave the Tories one chance - and I don't know what people are saying on the ground so please do correct me if I am wrong - but I think the Tories have done everything possible to shatter the image they've changed.
It's why I think it's rather naive and/or condescending to suggest that if Johnson goes, the Red Wall will forget. I think they're far more intelligent than that
The government isn't entirely done yet. Clearly the last couple of months have been a political disaster. The issues that have made it so though aren't really the material ones. The press tries to make out that the government is messing up on covid etc of course, but it isn't. It has messed up entirely on sleeze and the look and feel.
Two years in and there are some bits and pieces that suggest that the government is serious about helping the forgotten north. Gove, despite his slight odiousness, is pretty capable. And as this is all he's got he's not going to sit on his hands.
I think there's a real chance that this government will help the North.
Nothing can excuse the Paterson affair. The party stuff is just froth - hardly good, but doesn't matter. Otherwise the government is governing and not doing so badly given the headwinds. They've just handed away 10% or so support for no reason at all.
What are these "bits and pieces" you detect? Pray tell. And Gove may well have good ideas. The experience shows they fall when wealthy Southern voters, the bedrock of the Tory majority, have to dip their hands in their pockets, or be in anyway otherwise inconvenienced.
So as expected Christmas confusion as to the covid data which will not sort itself out for maybe another 10 days.
The drop in vaccinations was more than I expected though.
I'd be interested to know what the vaccinating capacity was for the last three days.
Were people unable to get vaccinated because the capacity wasn't there ? Was the capacity there but people wanted to do Christmas things instead ? Was the capacity there but the demand limit is being approached ?
One thing is for certain, the target / aspiration is going to be missed by miles.
What a silly target it was. And the Government will be damaged as a result
Only a tiny rise in England ventilated patients though,
Ventilated patients number will only start to rise in another week or so based on the experience of Delta and previous variants.
Basically for a lot of the important things we need to know about, we aren't yet in a position to have the data that answers the question.
A question. Omicron is a disease of the upper respiratory tract. Therefore, should we be expecting anyone to need ventilation at all, as it isn't in the lungs?
It is more bronchial than early forms, which mostly caused interstitial inflammation, so middle rather than upper or lower airway disease.
I think the Red Wall really gave the Tories one chance - and I don't know what people are saying on the ground so please do correct me if I am wrong - but I think the Tories have done everything possible to shatter the image they've changed.
It's why I think it's rather naive and/or condescending to suggest that if Johnson goes, the Red Wall will forget. I think they're far more intelligent than that
It's really very simple, without NPR and HS2E (alongside the other investment that was promised and has seemingly disappeared) the seats will return to their default position of relatively safe Labour seats.
Do you honestly think it is that simple? I think there was this idea that Johnson's Tories were different to what had come before - but the sleaze scandals have totally undone that image.
Don't forget the 'Red Wall' isn't one homogeneous block either. Just because Wakefield reverts in a fury at being ignored over HS2 doesn't mean Newcastle under Lyme will.
There may be places which want HS2 but I doubt Wakefield is one of them.
Unless that is it is filled with voters desperate to travel by train to Birmingham quicker.
Wakefield gets a reduced service to both London and everywhere else under the IRP (although it hasn't been sold that way).
I think the Red Wall really gave the Tories one chance - and I don't know what people are saying on the ground so please do correct me if I am wrong - but I think the Tories have done everything possible to shatter the image they've changed.
It's why I think it's rather naive and/or condescending to suggest that if Johnson goes, the Red Wall will forget. I think they're far more intelligent than that
The government isn't entirely done yet. Clearly the last couple of months have been a political disaster. The issues that have made it so though aren't really the material ones. The press tries to make out that the government is messing up on covid etc of course, but it isn't. It has messed up entirely on sleeze and the look and feel.
Two years in and there are some bits and pieces that suggest that the government is serious about helping the forgotten north. Gove, despite his slight odiousness, is pretty capable. And as this is all he's got he's not going to sit on his hands.
I think there's a real chance that this government will help the North.
Nothing can excuse the Paterson affair. The party stuff is just froth - hardly good, but doesn't matter. Otherwise the government is governing and not doing so badly given the headwinds. They've just handed away 10% or so support for no reason at all.
If the best idea Gove has is the no business rates on high streets policy than he is already out of election winning ideas.
Especially if the revenue is coming from online sales as that will result in every Amazon receipt telling people why they shouldn't vote Tory.
I think the change in the opinion polls is almost all down to scandals and poor political judgement especially from Johnstone. His brand is unrecoverable but tricky though it will be the Tories can rescue the situation to a degree. Upcoming hits to living standards will be a challenge but they will actually be difficult for Labour to exploit. Energy prices and costs of going Green? Labour are more enthusiastic for decarbonisation. Tax hits and paying for Covid? Labour will struggle to gain traction there apart from soak the rich rhetoric which tends to fail.
Labour can position themselves to make a lot of ground but can also throw it away. All the evidence is that a substantial part of the electorate are hostile to the attitudes of the LP rank and file. A pared back manifesto, lots of strong pledges to be moderate and dialling down identity politics and I think they can get a majority particularly if the Tories can't get rid of Johnson tidily and/or pick a poor successor. On the other hand ....
Only a tiny rise in England ventilated patients though,
Ventilated patients number will only start to rise in another week or so based on the experience of Delta and previous variants.
Basically for a lot of the important things we need to know about, we aren't yet in a position to have the data that answers the question.
A question. Omicron is a disease of the upper respiratory tract. Therefore, should we be expecting anyone to need ventilation at all, as it isn't in the lungs?
Omicron seems to be a disease of the upper respiratory tract. The question is what does it look like in non-mild cases - which is something we sadly don't know enough about yet..
The brain fog was super noticeable. Confusion and silly errors. And some are anecdotally reporting hearing and cognition problems. Not sure the how many on ventilators? issue will be as relevant.
So as expected Christmas confusion as to the covid data which will not sort itself out for maybe another 10 days.
The drop in vaccinations was more than I expected though.
I'd be interested to know what the vaccinating capacity was for the last three days.
Were people unable to get vaccinated because the capacity wasn't there ? Was the capacity there but people wanted to do Christmas things instead ? Was the capacity there but the demand limit is being approached ?
One thing is for certain, the target / aspiration is going to be missed by miles.
Isn't the target everyone eligible being offered a booster by the end of the year ?
If so then its pretty sure to be met because I've heard no reports of anyone not being able to get a booster if they wanted one.
I think the Red Wall really gave the Tories one chance - and I don't know what people are saying on the ground so please do correct me if I am wrong - but I think the Tories have done everything possible to shatter the image they've changed.
It's why I think it's rather naive and/or condescending to suggest that if Johnson goes, the Red Wall will forget. I think they're far more intelligent than that
It's really very simple, without NPR and HS2E (alongside the other investment that was promised and has seemingly disappeared) the seats will return to their default position of relatively safe Labour seats.
Do you honestly think it is that simple? I think there was this idea that Johnson's Tories were different to what had come before - but the sleaze scandals have totally undone that image.
Don't forget the 'Red Wall' isn't one homogeneous block either. Just because Wakefield reverts in a fury at being ignored over HS2 doesn't mean Newcastle under Lyme will.
There may be places which want HS2 but I doubt Wakefield is one of them.
Unless that is it is filled with voters desperate to travel by train to Birmingham quicker.
Wakefield gets a reduced service to both London and everywhere else under the IRP (although it hasn't been sold that way).
Well the IRP offers more things to everyone unless you read it in detail and discover it's promising the completely impossible. Heck to give the increased train speeds promised hourly capacity will need to be reduced by 1 train per hour.
Only a tiny rise in England ventilated patients though,
Ventilated patients number will only start to rise in another week or so based on the experience of Delta and previous variants.
Basically for a lot of the important things we need to know about, we aren't yet in a position to have the data that answers the question.
A question. Omicron is a disease of the upper respiratory tract. Therefore, should we be expecting anyone to need ventilation at all, as it isn't in the lungs?
It is more bronchial than early forms, which mostly caused interstitial inflammation, so middle rather than upper or lower airway disease.
Thanks. Is there any validity to the anecdotal communication/cognition symptoms?
I see the discussion about Paul founding a church fizzled out even before it could become a schism and then all out war. Probably just as well. Could we have eeklesiastical discussion without evolving Eek.
*film spoiler alert* I have watched Don’t Look Up printed on baseball caps and chanted by crowd as disaster to earths ecology hurtles towards us, in non too subtle metaphor. Such acting talent as Leo is best actor around at moment and Blanchett too, and you would think a film to recommend PB Friends, but I can’t. It wasn’t very good. The project had good ideas but the writing just didn’t do it justice. In a nut shell it would have been funnier if it had taken itself more seriously. It was not subtle or sinister enough for the ideas.
Is 2021 truly bad for films or just bad ones attracted themselves to me?
Very glad that politics is competitive. It’s entirely positive that the half of country that has no time for the Conservatives gets a look in.
How competitive is it though?
I read somewhere that the poll shifts were Tories moving to “don’t know” - not sure if that is right. If so it could be temporary and mask an underlying structural weakness for Labour
That is what I've seen in the polling data. I think that does make for a competitive situation. Many of these voters will be open to being persuaded by Starmer and the Labour party. Their votes are there to be competed over.
If it was just voters moving to don't know, Labour wouldn't be polling 40%, i.e. the 2017 figure? It's both surely
I think “don’t know” is excluded
So 30% Labour 40% Tory 15% other 15% DK is reported as Labour 30/85 (=35%) and Tory 40/85 (47%) so a Tory lead of 12
30% Labour 30% Tory 15% other 25% DK is reported as 40% for each of Labour & the Tories.
So Labour has closed the gap without converting a single new voter. And Tory>DK are probably easier for the Tories to win back
I think the Red Wall really gave the Tories one chance - and I don't know what people are saying on the ground so please do correct me if I am wrong - but I think the Tories have done everything possible to shatter the image they've changed.
It's why I think it's rather naive and/or condescending to suggest that if Johnson goes, the Red Wall will forget. I think they're far more intelligent than that
The government isn't entirely done yet. Clearly the last couple of months have been a political disaster. The issues that have made it so though aren't really the material ones. The press tries to make out that the government is messing up on covid etc of course, but it isn't. It has messed up entirely on sleeze and the look and feel.
Two years in and there are some bits and pieces that suggest that the government is serious about helping the forgotten north. Gove, despite his slight odiousness, is pretty capable. And as this is all he's got he's not going to sit on his hands.
I think there's a real chance that this government will help the North.
Nothing can excuse the Paterson affair. The party stuff is just froth - hardly good, but doesn't matter. Otherwise the government is governing and not doing so badly given the headwinds. They've just handed away 10% or so support for no reason at all.
If the best idea Gove has is the no business rates on high streets policy than he is already out of election winning ideas.
Especially if the revenue is coming from online sales as that will result in every Amazon receipt telling people why they shouldn't vote Tory.
Gove won't be looking for election winning ideas, but he will be looking for Gove-positive ideas. He'll get some money and he'll change something or other. I sort of trust Gove not to just be throwing money away and that what he changes might represent a good change.
Only a tiny rise in England ventilated patients though,
Ventilated patients number will only start to rise in another week or so based on the experience of Delta and previous variants.
Basically for a lot of the important things we need to know about, we aren't yet in a position to have the data that answers the question.
A question. Omicron is a disease of the upper respiratory tract. Therefore, should we be expecting anyone to need ventilation at all, as it isn't in the lungs?
It is more bronchial than early forms, which mostly caused interstitial inflammation, so middle rather than upper or lower airway disease.
Thanks. Is there any validity to the anecdotal communication/cognition symptoms?
The problem is not so much the viral phase, but rather the inflammatory phase with covid. How true that is of Omicron, I don't know.
(1) Are these based on new boundaries or old? (2) The Lib/LD line makes no sense. They were on 11, and they end up on 11. That means... no change (if based on old boundaries), and some small gains if based on new.
West Side Story on the telly now. Get off PB and get watching. A better classic you couldn't hope for.
[Frasier is having doubts about his sexuality]
Frasier : I was sensitive as a child; I didn't go in for sports. God, it's every cliche in the book. Surely it must have occurred to you at some point? You refused to take me to see "West Side Story" on my eighth birthday.
Martin : Well, because of the gangs. That's scary for kids.
From the latest @OpiniumResearch poll, the tories lose their lead on the economy.
Which government do you think would be best at handling the economy? Con government led by Boris Johnson - 31% Lab government led by Keir Starmer - 31% Neither - 23% Don't know - 15%
I think the change in the opinion polls is almost all down to scandals and poor political judgement especially from Johnstone. His brand is unrecoverable but tricky though it will be the Tories can rescue the situation to a degree. Upcoming hits to living standards will be a challenge but they will actually be difficult for Labour to exploit. Energy prices and costs of going Green? Labour are more enthusiastic for decarbonisation. Tax hits and paying for Covid? Labour will struggle to gain traction there apart from soak the rich rhetoric which tends to fail.
Labour can position themselves to make a lot of ground but can also throw it away. All the evidence is that a substantial part of the electorate are hostile to the attitudes of the LP rank and file. A pared back manifesto, lots of strong pledges to be moderate and dialling down identity politics and I think they can get a majority particularly if the Tories can't get rid of Johnson tidily and/or pick a poor successor. On the other hand ....
An offer like that from Labour is a certainty imo. Starmer has NL as his template.
West Side Story on the telly now. Get off PB and get watching. A better classic you couldn't hope for.
[Frasier is having doubts about his sexuality]
Frasier : I was sensitive as a child; I didn't go in for sports. God, it's every cliche in the book. Surely it must have occurred to you at some point? You refused to take me to see "West Side Story" on my eighth birthday.
Martin : Well, because of the gangs. That's scary for kids.
Frasier : Even gangs that dance?
Martin : Especially gangs that dance!
I have just this last week or two rewatched Top Boy and Blue Story. To say nothing of other gang/violence events.
Funnily enough the rituals are integral to the whole theatre of gang warfare then and now. To have made it explicit over 50 years ago showed amazing perspicacity.
West Side Story on the telly now. Get off PB and get watching. A better classic you couldn't hope for.
[Frasier is having doubts about his sexuality]
Frasier : I was sensitive as a child; I didn't go in for sports. God, it's every cliche in the book. Surely it must have occurred to you at some point? You refused to take me to see "West Side Story" on my eighth birthday.
Martin : Well, because of the gangs. That's scary for kids.
Frasier : Even gangs that dance?
Martin : Especially gangs that dance!
LOL. $ day of Christmas and we are all vegging out in front telly. Let me guess, not just drinking, but there’s a tub of chocolates close at hand.
Eagles. I am still laughing at thought brother in his flat cap, going round Wetherby as though he knew everyone there and everyone knew him. 😂
When you seek the role of Emperor President of Yorkshire, Screaming Eagles you
One. Got competition from a True Brexit No Backing Down Conservative candidate. Two. Got my vote 🤣
It is time to invest now, massive infrastructure projects, proper house building, proper public transport systems in the North, green energy projects.
Labour needs to be unapologetically pro proper social democracy
Yep, with our massive trade surplus, our government surplus, our low level of debt, our readily available surplus of labour and inflation completely under control what could possibly go wrong?
Like a company, you can't cut your way to sustainable profitability. Rationalisation and job cuts are only half the story, the other half is achieving some kind of growth. My former employer realised this in the early 2010s and actually began investing in the core business and it has grown 10x in value since the worst days when they started the investment plans and looked beyond job cuts.
So, the question becomes, what is our core business, and what more can we do to help the financial services industry?
I'm not sure this logic leads to investing in the North being a good idea. Unfortunately.
Surely as a nation our 'core business' is the 67 million people who live in this country?
If people in the North are not as productive as can be, then our core business of the nation isn't operating as it should be, and we should figure out why.
Treasury analysis that says "this part of the country is overheating, so lets spend more money there" is part of the problem that means the core business hasn't been working as it should.
That's not really the point - the issue is that the country's economic fundamentals are very broken and need fixing. Max is making the point that, by analogy to a company, you can't fix the problems by cutting everything until it works again; you need to refocus on things that make money and do more of those. I sort of agree with this, but I don't think that line of thinking logically leads towards borrowing money to build lots of infrastructure in the North. Maybe it does, but it feels more like we might bankrupt the country before we see a return.
There is actually plenty of money being spent in the North - 60%+ of the GDP of the north is the government, compared to about a third in London. The trouble is, it's spent in a way which could have been designed to do maximum economic damage. It goes on inflated public sector salaries, which are similar to those in the south, despite a vastly lower cost of living, welfare benefits and so on. This creates a hugely damaging dependency culture and throttles private enterprise by increases the price of inputs and reducing the rate of return there.
So rather than subsidising dependency in the north, regional policy should subsidise enterprise, by cutting taxes, cutting public spending, axing damaging regulations and promoting infrastructure and other business-friendly spending. If that doesn't restore dynamism to the north, nothing will.
Good news on the Covid front in the Rentool household - my wife's PCR result has come back negative. It looks like the positive LFTs on Christmas Day just caught the back end of an infection. I've tested negative again, so tomorrow we can face the world.
Could have also been a false positive.
0.5% of lft positives are false, so the chances of 2 at the same time are on the slim side
Unless there is a systematic error.
Systemic errors are much more likely on the negative side because the user repeats the mistake, such as not sticking it up your nose until it really hurts. Two false positives would be remarkable.
Ah...
That's not where you're supposed to put it. Guidance has changed, and it's not supposed to hurt.
Data coming through now on the website. Basically looks like 3 days of estimated at ~115-130k range. Doesn't seem like Scotland and Wales reported every day of the past 3, so just adding on a rough guess.
No blow off top....YET....
Bit of a muddle but these are not the scary numbers some were predicting.
If one was rather cynical, some naughty people might have decided not to test themselves the past couple of days if they were having Christmas with family they didn't judge vulnerable and I doubt they are going down the PCR testing centre on Christmas Day / Boxing Day as a precaution.
It is time to invest now, massive infrastructure projects, proper house building, proper public transport systems in the North, green energy projects.
Labour needs to be unapologetically pro proper social democracy
Yep, with our massive trade surplus, our government surplus, our low level of debt, our readily available surplus of labour and inflation completely under control what could possibly go wrong?
Many of those thing will have an economic return well in excess of the cost of funding government debt.
That Alistair has joined the ranks of cautiously optimistic should be a positive sign for all of us.
I came back from a 1 month PB break to say i wasn't concerned about Omicron. I'm in the positively blasè camp (up to a point, personal circumstances mean that I am still very concerned about what it means for my family)
But be warned I am still shit hot on mocking the shit out of people making definitive calls about cases peaking or stalling or any nonsense like that.
I think the Red Wall really gave the Tories one chance - and I don't know what people are saying on the ground so please do correct me if I am wrong - but I think the Tories have done everything possible to shatter the image they've changed.
It's why I think it's rather naive and/or condescending to suggest that if Johnson goes, the Red Wall will forget. I think they're far more intelligent than that
Johnson is the only Tory leader ever to win most of the redwall seats, even Thatcher did not win seats like Leigh, Burnley, West Bromwich, Stoke and Grimsby like Voris did.
The redwall voted for Boris and to get Brexit done, it did not vote for the Tory party
I think the Red Wall really gave the Tories one chance - and I don't know what people are saying on the ground so please do correct me if I am wrong - but I think the Tories have done everything possible to shatter the image they've changed.
It's why I think it's rather naive and/or condescending to suggest that if Johnson goes, the Red Wall will forget. I think they're far more intelligent than that
Johnson is the only Tory leader ever to win most of the redwall seats, even Thatcher did not win seats like Leigh, Burnley, West Bromwich, Stoke and Grimsby like Boris did.
The redwall voted for Boris and to get Brexit done, it did not vote for the Tory party
Without spoilers would anyone who's seen the new Spider-Man movie say its suitable for young children? Aged 5 and 7.
Also without spoilers would anyone who's seen the new Spider-Man movie say its suitable for those who haven't seen any of this generation of MCU/Spider-Man movies?
I'd like to see it at the cinema, but my wife hasn't seen any of the movies since the Garfield Amazing Spiderman generation of films, before we had kids. She's not really into comic movies, but would go with me before we had kids, since kids we've rarely gone to the cinema apart from kid films.
I went with an 11 year old and 8 year old as well as their granddad, all loved it.
This film will not make sense if you've not seen any of the previous Tom Holland films Spidey films, including the MCU films in which he features.
It literally picks up seconds after the end of Far From Home.
Do any of the MCU films make any sense?
Not massively, but some provide a couple of hours innocent diversion from the cares of the world.
There is a real collision between the media, the Scots and Welsh governments and many scientists who seem to focus solely on infections v HMG who are considering hospital admissions and deaths as the key factor in restricting the economy further
At 4.00pm Sky announced todays figures and then produced some former medical director saying the infection rate demand further public health measures and we will not be safe until the world is vaccinated
On Wednesday Sturgeon recalls Holyrood again to affirm record infections trying to justify her actions and in the meantime HMG has announced no new restrictions this year and unlike Scotland and Wales, people in England will have less restrictions and Scotland and Wales football clubs can only look on with envy at the Premier crowds
I am very frustrated with the media and the left, as they have been captured by the desire to control all aspects of people's lives with an infection that while very infectious, does not seem to be much more than a bad cold
It is interesting that Starmer remains silent but also that Burnham and Blair are on the same page as HMG
I think the Red Wall really gave the Tories one chance - and I don't know what people are saying on the ground so please do correct me if I am wrong - but I think the Tories have done everything possible to shatter the image they've changed.
It's why I think it's rather naive and/or condescending to suggest that if Johnson goes, the Red Wall will forget. I think they're far more intelligent than that
Johnson is the only Tory leader ever to win most of the redwall seats, even Thatcher did not win seats like Leigh, Burnley, West Bromwich, Stoke and Grimsby like Boris did.
The redwall voted for Boris and to get Brexit done, it did not vote for the Tory party
Those seats have changed over the last 50 years. there are a lot less unionised industries so there's a lot less 'baked in' labour support. places like Stoke are becoming commuter belt for Birmingham and Manchester. Thatcher could never have won some of those seats but future (better) tory leaders can win them again.
There is a real collision between the media, the Scots and Welsh governments and many scientists who seem to focus solely on infections v HMG who are considering hospital admissions and deaths as the key factor in restricting the economy further
At 4.00pm Sky announced todays figures and then produced some former medical director saying the infection rate demand further public health measures and we will not be safe until the world is vaccinated
On Wednesday Sturgeon recalls Holyrood again to affirm record infections trying to justify her actions and in the meantime HMG has announced no new restrictions this year and unlike Scotland and Wales, people in England will have less restrictions and Scotland and Wales football clubs can only look on with envy at the Premier crowds
I am very frustrated with the media and the left, as they have been captured by the desire to control all aspects of people's lives with an infection that while very infectious, does not seem to be much more than a bad cold
It is interesting that Starmer remains silent but also that Burnham and Blair are on the same page as HMG
My guess is that Starmer felt a bit bitten with the last time he tried to go all Lockdown - at the end of the lockdown in the summer.
He's got things rolling his way at the moment, not really the time to boldly try *that* one again....
I think the Red Wall really gave the Tories one chance - and I don't know what people are saying on the ground so please do correct me if I am wrong - but I think the Tories have done everything possible to shatter the image they've changed.
It's why I think it's rather naive and/or condescending to suggest that if Johnson goes, the Red Wall will forget. I think they're far more intelligent than that
Johnson is the only Tory leader ever to win most of the redwall seats, even Thatcher did not win seats like Leigh, Burnley, West Bromwich, Stoke and Grimsby like Voris did.
The redwall voted for Boris and to get Brexit done, it did not vote for the Tory party
Great typo. Maybe he can re-invent himself as Voris the Vaccinator?
Data looks good at the moment and that is a good sign.
But we must now ensure that we are prepared for a surge in hospitalisations if we allow immunity to wane
I’ve followed instructions to just swab nose not tonsils. Now experts saying box guidance wrong 🤯
It depends on the LFT type. Our old types required both tonsils and nostrils; the new ones just nostrils. It's important to read the instructions when you get a new pack, particularly if the packaging is different.
Who the bloody hell is Adam Brooks? I mean, I welcome it too, but that isn't headline news. Someone I had heard of saying it was the most moronic decision in the whole history of politics might be.
113 positive tests in the Premier League in the week to Boxing Day.
A little bit of context.
PL say that between Monday 20 December and Sunday 26 December, 15,186 COVID-19 tests were administered on players and club staff. Of these, there were 103 new positive cases. It was 42 per week in mid December and 12 in early December.
This, however, should be presented in conjunction with the number of tests administered rising from 3,805 for the week of data that led to 42 cases between Dec 6-12.
I think the Red Wall really gave the Tories one chance - and I don't know what people are saying on the ground so please do correct me if I am wrong - but I think the Tories have done everything possible to shatter the image they've changed.
It's why I think it's rather naive and/or condescending to suggest that if Johnson goes, the Red Wall will forget. I think they're far more intelligent than that
Johnson is the only Tory leader ever to win most of the redwall seats, even Thatcher did not win seats like Leigh, Burnley, West Bromwich, Stoke and Grimsby like Voris did.
The redwall voted for Boris and to get Brexit done, it did not vote for the Tory party
Great typo. Maybe he can re-invent himself as Voris?
The optics of the Welsh and Scots... with their noses pressed up against the window pane....watching the English party on.....Ooh-er...
Is Drakeford closing the bridges?
Not this time and he can stuff it.
I'm off to Bournemouth on Thursday to watch the football in a sold-out away end before heading back to Cardiff.
I'm told Drakeford will be reviewing restrictions on the 10th Jan relating to sport. Let's see which way he jumps, as he's truly out on a limb now. The cynic in me says that the behind closed doors ludicrousness will be lifted before the 6 Nations and the world's biggest pub is opened in the heart of the Welsh capital.
While there has been some divergence between England and Wales before, not to this extent.
I think the Red Wall really gave the Tories one chance - and I don't know what people are saying on the ground so please do correct me if I am wrong - but I think the Tories have done everything possible to shatter the image they've changed.
It's why I think it's rather naive and/or condescending to suggest that if Johnson goes, the Red Wall will forget. I think they're far more intelligent than that
Johnson is the only Tory leader ever to win most of the redwall seats, even Thatcher did not win seats like Leigh, Burnley, West Bromwich, Stoke and Grimsby like Voris did.
The redwall voted for Boris and to get Brexit done, it did not vote for the Tory party
Great typo. Maybe he can re-invent himself as Voris the Vaccinator?
Voris the Impaler.
Impaling who with what can only be speculated upon.
Data looks good at the moment and that is a good sign.
But we must now ensure that we are prepared for a surge in hospitalisations if we allow immunity to wane
Immunity against what though?
Well the studies clearly say that if we allow immunity to wane, Omicron is going to cause almost as much damage as Delta. And that was bad.
So we must ensure everyone is jabbed and then jabbed again
To an extent we will get immunity by getting Omicron whilst we still have immunity so that, by the time we no longer have immunity, we actually all have immunity.
The concept of addiction is being stretched beyond reason. Not just by the Spectator but also with regards to gambling and even booze: not every habitual drunk is an alcoholic just as not all drug users are addicts.
It's not so much about gambling and booze in particular IMO. It's more of a general thing where you offer something to someone for free and then hope they get addicted to it later on, and then you start charging for it. A lot of things these days seem to operate on that basis.
Comments
Week 51 Admissions (predicted): 7458 (11% week on week fall!)
Week 51 deaths (predicted): 534 (30% week on week rise
Ventilated: 3%
Oxygenated: 15.7%
(These figures are rising but total in hospital is falling)
153,690 booster jabs reported in 🏴 on Christmas Eve
10,477 booster jabs reported in 🏴 on Christmas Day
20,278 booster jabs reported in 🏴 on Boxing Day
https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1475500580621668355?s=20
As I predicted, nobody is nipping down to get a jab on Christmas Day / Boxing Day and potentially feeling crap (while not adding protection for the big day). It will be interesting to see if it picks up this week. I think we will struggle to get past a million on any day.
Omicron is a disease of the upper respiratory tract.
Therefore, should we be expecting anyone to need ventilation at all, as it isn't in the lungs?
What are the odds folk would rather be positive after rather than before 4 Bank Holidays?
And looking round here while we have done well (heck Treasury North with 1000 other departmental jobs to allow the departments to have some say in decisions made up there) nothing is going to appear in the timeframe that rescues our Tory MP from seeming to have failed to deliver...
Unless that is it is filled with voters desperate to travel by train to Birmingham quicker.
At least I now know Inverrara is the posho wanker pronounciation of Inverary.
Two years in and there are some bits and pieces that suggest that the government is serious about helping the forgotten north. Gove, despite his slight odiousness, is pretty capable. And as this is all he's got he's not going to sit on his hands.
I think there's a real chance that this government will help the North.
Nothing can excuse the Paterson affair. The party stuff is just froth - hardly good, but doesn't matter. Otherwise the government is governing and not doing so badly given the headwinds. They've just handed away 10% or so support for no reason at all.
We absolutely should have seen a surge in ventilated cases by now if there was going to be a tearaway surge.
Don't get me wrong, ventilated vases are rising, but at a much lower proportion than Delta.
The question is what does it look like in non-mild cases - which is something we sadly don't know enough about yet..
The drop in vaccinations was more than I expected though.
I'd be interested to know what the vaccinating capacity was for the last three days.
Were people unable to get vaccinated because the capacity wasn't there ?
Was the capacity there but people wanted to do Christmas things instead ?
Was the capacity there but the demand limit is being approached ?
We must ensure we maintain immunity.
And Gove may well have good ideas. The experience shows they fall when wealthy Southern voters, the bedrock of the Tory majority, have to dip their hands in their pockets, or be in anyway otherwise inconvenienced.
Especially if the revenue is coming from online sales as that will result in every Amazon receipt telling people why they shouldn't vote Tory.
Labour can position themselves to make a lot of ground but can also throw it away. All the evidence is that a substantial part of the electorate are hostile to the attitudes of the LP rank and file. A pared back manifesto, lots of strong pledges to be moderate and dialling down identity politics and I think they can get a majority particularly if the Tories can't get rid of Johnson tidily and/or pick a poor successor. On the other hand ....
There's certainly an earlier peak of 15/12 in most of the Inner London boroughs:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Islington
Not sure the how many on ventilators? issue will be as relevant.
If so then its pretty sure to be met because I've heard no reports of anyone not being able to get a booster if they wanted one.
*film spoiler alert* I have watched Don’t Look Up printed on baseball caps and chanted by crowd as disaster to earths ecology hurtles towards us, in non too subtle metaphor. Such acting talent as Leo is best actor around at moment and Blanchett too, and you would think a film to recommend PB Friends, but I can’t. It wasn’t very good. The project had good ideas but the writing just didn’t do it justice. In a nut shell it would have been funnier if it had taken itself more seriously. It was not subtle or sinister enough for the ideas.
Is 2021 truly bad for films or just bad ones attracted themselves to me?
So 30% Labour 40% Tory 15% other 15% DK is reported as Labour 30/85 (=35%) and Tory 40/85 (47%) so a Tory lead of 12
30% Labour 30% Tory 15% other 25% DK is reported as 40% for each of Labour & the Tories.
So Labour has closed the gap without converting a single new voter. And Tory>DK are probably easier for the Tories to win back
West Side Story on the telly now. Get off PB and get watching. A better classic you couldn't hope for.
(1) Are these based on new boundaries or old?
(2) The Lib/LD line makes no sense. They were on 11, and they end up on 11. That means... no change (if based on old boundaries), and some small gains if based on new.
Frasier : I was sensitive as a child; I didn't go in for sports. God, it's every cliche in the book. Surely it must have occurred to you at some point? You refused to take me to see "West Side Story" on my eighth birthday.
Martin : Well, because of the gangs. That's scary for kids.
Frasier : Even gangs that dance?
Martin : Especially gangs that dance!
Which government do you think would be best at handling the economy?
Con government led by Boris Johnson - 31%
Lab government led by Keir Starmer - 31%
Neither - 23%
Don't know - 15%
https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1475507536874938372
So Labour leads in the polls, best PM and now draws level on the economy
NEW: No new restrictions for England until at least the new year - Health Secretary Sajid Javid
Key section of TV pool Javid interview
Chris > CHB > Alistair > rcs1000 > Richard_Tyndall > PhilipT
That Alistair has joined the ranks of cautiously optimistic should be a positive sign for all of us.
Funnily enough the rituals are integral to the whole theatre of gang warfare then and now. To have made it explicit over 50 years ago showed amazing perspicacity.
Eagles. I am still laughing at thought brother in his flat cap, going round Wetherby as though he knew everyone there and everyone knew him. 😂
When you seek the role of Emperor President of Yorkshire, Screaming Eagles you
One. Got competition from a True Brexit No Backing Down Conservative candidate.
Two. Got my vote 🤣
Data for Christmas cases for Scotland - provisional. Not good.
That's not where you're supposed to put it. Guidance has changed, and it's not supposed to hurt.
https://twitter.com/EssexPR/status/1475499267754237960?s=20
🤗 the Malmesbury Monoliths have arrived.
While I’m up, can I get anyone a dirty martini?
But be warned I am still shit hot on mocking the shit out of people making definitive calls about cases peaking or stalling or any nonsense like that.
The redwall voted for Boris and to get Brexit done, it did not vote for the Tory party
The redwall voted for Boris and to get Brexit done, it did not vote for the Tory party
At 4.00pm Sky announced todays figures and then produced some former medical director saying the infection rate demand further public health measures and we will not be safe until the world is vaccinated
On Wednesday Sturgeon recalls Holyrood again to affirm record infections trying to justify her actions and in the meantime HMG has announced no new restrictions this year and unlike Scotland and Wales, people in England will have less restrictions and Scotland and Wales football clubs can only look on with envy at the Premier crowds
I am very frustrated with the media and the left, as they have been captured by the desire to control all aspects of people's lives with an infection that while very infectious, does not seem to be much more than a bad cold
It is interesting that Starmer remains silent but also that Burnham and Blair are on the same page as HMG
Hard to say with partial data. One thing we can say is that the nosedive for London R from the 18th seems real enough
The question is where it really ended up.
Admissions are rising strongly across England though
But we must now ensure that we are prepared for a surge in hospitalisations if we allow immunity to wane
He's got things rolling his way at the moment, not really the time to boldly try *that* one again....
(Unless I'm missing a joke somewhere...)
I suggest government scrutinise their monoliths in a proper litten room.
PL say that between Monday 20 December and Sunday 26 December, 15,186 COVID-19 tests were administered on players and club staff. Of these, there were 103 new positive cases. It was 42 per week in mid December and 12 in early December.
This, however, should be presented in conjunction with the number of tests administered rising from 3,805 for the week of data that led to 42 cases between Dec 6-12.
https://twitter.com/AdamCrafton_/status/1475484348686159873
And who is PM in waiting Keir Starmer backing?
Drakeford or Johnson?
So we must ensure everyone is jabbed and then jabbed again
I'm off to Bournemouth on Thursday to watch the football in a sold-out away end before heading back to Cardiff.
I'm told Drakeford will be reviewing restrictions on the 10th Jan relating to sport. Let's see which way he jumps, as he's truly out on a limb now. The cynic in me says that the behind closed doors ludicrousness will be lifted before the 6 Nations and the world's biggest pub is opened in the heart of the Welsh capital.
While there has been some divergence between England and Wales before, not to this extent.
Impaling who with what can only be speculated upon.