I will offer you 10-1 that case-fatality rates and case-hospitalisation rates for Omicron will be lower than for Original variant Covid in the unvaccinated.
£10 to £100.
Deal?
A fair bet would be in those unvaccinated and with no previous exposure to coronavirus - but might be problems identifying those never exposed. Also treatments have improved.
That's a fair point, and that particularly impacts death rates.
Telegraph - The UK has overtaken Israel in the race to become the world’s most boosted nation against Covid. Britain now has the highest take-up of booster coronavirus vaccines across the globe, with 45 per cent of people triple jabbed
I believe Chile have had more, but their first two shots were duffers.
This is excellent news but we need to get on with round four.
Waning immunity is going to be a big problem for us because we were so early, almost a victim of our own success in a way.
I would hope that the fourth jab is tweaked to protect primarily against omicron, even if it means a slight delay to it being stuck in arms. I would also set a date after which people who are unvaccinated through choice are prevented from entering public spaces and are deprioritised for medical treatment. I would write to them informing them of this decision and offering them a date for a vaccination. If they still don’t get jabbed then hell mend them.
"Scientists have looked at the effects of a potential return to step 2 restrictions from 28 December or 1 January, lasting either two weeks, four weeks or three months until 28 March. No 10 said the data had not yet been considered by ministers.
"Step 2 – part of last year’s roadmap – includes a ban on indoor social mixing, a return of the rule of six, and bars and restaurants only able to serve outdoors."
No indeed, it's possibly worse. It's on the level as being at least as severe as the original Coronavirus, which is basically what we are seeing: COVID hitting a vaccinated population.
The South African researchers said :
> For every 1,000 infections, 44 people ended up in hospital in South Africa in the first wave, 101 in the Delta wave and 38 in Omicron. He and his colleagues estimate that after correcting for vaccination status, age and prior infection Omicron is a third less severe than the original Wuhan strain of coronavirus, which itself is less serious than Delta.
No indeed, it's possibly worse. It's on the level as being at least as severe as the original Coronavirus, which is basically what we are seeing: COVID hitting a vaccinated population.
The South African researchers said :
> For every 1,000 infections, 44 people ended up in hospital in South Africa in the first wave, 101 in the Delta wave and 38 in Omicron. He and his colleagues estimate that after correcting for vaccination status, age and prior infection Omicron is a third less severe than the original Wuhan strain of coronavirus, which itself is less serious than Delta.
Which sounds fairly hopeful to me at least.
Just wait till you get to the next thread ...
Anyway must go and open the last of the Christmas cards and put the small bottle of rose sparkling in the fridge for tomorrow (Mrs C can't drink the stuff, so I don't get a whole bottle to myself).
"Scientists have looked at the effects of a potential return to step 2 restrictions from 28 December or 1 January, lasting either two weeks, four weeks or three months until 28 March. No 10 said the data had not yet been considered by ministers.
"Step 2 – part of last year’s roadmap – includes a ban on indoor social mixing, a return of the rule of six, and bars and restaurants only able to serve outdoors."
Comments
I would also set a date after which people who are unvaccinated through choice are prevented from entering public spaces and are deprioritised for medical treatment. I would write to them informing them of this decision and offering them a date for a vaccination. If they still don’t get jabbed then hell mend them.
They are talking about THREE MONTHS
"Scientists have looked at the effects of a potential return to step 2 restrictions from 28 December or 1 January, lasting either two weeks, four weeks or three months until 28 March. No 10 said the data had not yet been considered by ministers.
"Step 2 – part of last year’s roadmap – includes a ban on indoor social mixing, a return of the rule of six, and bars and restaurants only able to serve outdoors."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/24/decision-on-stricter-covid-rules-for-england-may-come-on-monday
Merry Christmas all - I saw my Grandma today for the first time in two years and I'm about to set about a cheese board. All is well.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-689614
> For every 1,000 infections, 44 people ended up in hospital in South Africa in the first wave, 101 in the Delta wave and 38 in Omicron. He and his colleagues estimate that after correcting for vaccination status, age and prior infection Omicron is a third less severe than the original Wuhan strain of coronavirus, which itself is less serious than Delta.
Which sounds fairly hopeful to me at least.
Anyway must go and open the last of the Christmas cards and put the small bottle of rose sparkling in the fridge for tomorrow (Mrs C can't drink the stuff, so I don't get a whole bottle to myself).
Negative LFTs for myself, Mrs Foxy and Fox jr2 who has arrived from plague City. So far so good.
The fly in the ointment? Or duty doctor is feeling rough and gone for a PCR...