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The Johnson 2022 exit betting gets tighter – politicalbetting.com

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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,037
    kamski said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @CorrectHorseBattery

    I will offer you 10-1 that case-fatality rates and case-hospitalisation rates for Omicron will be lower than for Original variant Covid in the unvaccinated.

    £10 to £100.

    Deal?

    A fair bet would be in those unvaccinated and with no previous exposure to coronavirus - but might be problems identifying those never exposed. Also treatments have improved.
    That's a fair point, and that particularly impacts death rates.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,922

    Telegraph - The UK has overtaken Israel in the race to become the world’s most boosted nation against Covid. Britain now has the highest take-up of booster coronavirus vaccines across the globe, with 45 per cent of people triple jabbed

    I believe Chile have had more, but their first two shots were duffers.

    This is excellent news but we need to get on with round four.

    Waning immunity is going to be a big problem for us because we were so early, almost a victim of our own success in a way.
    I would hope that the fourth jab is tweaked to protect primarily against omicron, even if it means a slight delay to it being stuck in arms.
    I would also set a date after which people who are unvaccinated through choice are prevented from entering public spaces and are deprioritised for medical treatment. I would write to them informing them of this decision and offering them a date for a vaccination. If they still don’t get jabbed then hell mend them.
  • Eabhal said:

    My understanding of the Imperial paper was that Omi is

    1) Less likely to cause death/hospitalisation upon infection than Delta both before vaccines and

    2) After a comparable number/type of vaccines

    Of course, this is paired with

    3) Omi is more infectious

    So it's still uncertain which of the two variants is more dangerous in aggregate, through two mechanisms

    1) Quantity v quality. Infections X rate of hospilitation

    2) Mass isolation of asymptomatic NHS staff leads to excess dwarfs (including non-COVID)

    Excess dwarfs? More than seven?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,039
    God help us


    They are talking about THREE MONTHS


    "Scientists have looked at the effects of a potential return to step 2 restrictions from 28 December or 1 January, lasting either two weeks, four weeks or three months until 28 March. No 10 said the data had not yet been considered by ministers.

    "Step 2 – part of last year’s roadmap – includes a ban on indoor social mixing, a return of the rule of six, and bars and restaurants only able to serve outdoors."


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/24/decision-on-stricter-covid-rules-for-england-may-come-on-monday
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,048

    I'm not going to go round in circles so will leave things there.

    Good idea
    Fuck off
    ahemmmm

    image
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,321

    Eabhal said:

    My understanding of the Imperial paper was that Omi is

    1) Less likely to cause death/hospitalisation upon infection than Delta both before vaccines and

    2) After a comparable number/type of vaccines

    Of course, this is paired with

    3) Omi is more infectious

    So it's still uncertain which of the two variants is more dangerous in aggregate, through two mechanisms

    1) Quantity v quality. Infections X rate of hospilitation

    2) Mass isolation of asymptomatic NHS staff leads to excess dwarfs (including non-COVID)

    Excess dwarfs? More than seven?
    That snow joke, white?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922

    I'm not going to go round in circles so will leave things there.

    Good idea
    Fuck off
    I'm sure it was meant as good advice... not to bash your head against the wall etc.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,569
    Eabhal said:

    My understanding of the Imperial paper was that Omi is

    1) Less likely to cause death/hospitalisation upon infection than Delta both before vaccines and

    2) After a comparable number/type of vaccines

    Of course, this is paired with

    3) Omi is more infectious

    So it's still uncertain which of the two variants is more dangerous in aggregate, through two mechanisms

    1) Quantity v quality. Infections X rate of hospilitation

    2) Mass isolation of asymptomatic NHS staff leads to excess dwarfs (including non-COVID)

    Sorry, dwarfs should've been "elves" :wink:

    Merry Christmas all - I saw my Grandma today for the first time in two years and I'm about to set about a cheese board. All is well.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,723

    Eabhal said:

    My understanding of the Imperial paper was that Omi is

    1) Less likely to cause death/hospitalisation upon infection than Delta both before vaccines and

    2) After a comparable number/type of vaccines

    Of course, this is paired with

    3) Omi is more infectious

    So it's still uncertain which of the two variants is more dangerous in aggregate, through two mechanisms

    1) Quantity v quality. Infections X rate of hospilitation

    2) Mass isolation of asymptomatic NHS staff leads to excess dwarfs (including non-COVID)

    Excess dwarfs? More than seven?
    Presumably 'deaths' was intended - not happy at all (or even Happy et al).
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,922
    Before Santa comes down all our chimneys, does anyone have the infection data for Lapland?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,723
    Santa has got stuck in ther chimney of this thread ...
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,922
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    My understanding of the Imperial paper was that Omi is

    1) Less likely to cause death/hospitalisation upon infection than Delta both before vaccines and

    2) After a comparable number/type of vaccines

    Of course, this is paired with

    3) Omi is more infectious

    So it's still uncertain which of the two variants is more dangerous in aggregate, through two mechanisms

    1) Quantity v quality. Infections X rate of hospilitation

    2) Mass isolation of asymptomatic NHS staff leads to excess dwarfs (including non-COVID)

    Sorry, dwarfs should've been "elves" :wink:

    Merry Christmas all - I saw my Grandma today for the first time in two years and I'm about to set about a cheese board. All is well.
    Excellent news! Go on, make us jealous; what cheeses?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,569

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    My understanding of the Imperial paper was that Omi is

    1) Less likely to cause death/hospitalisation upon infection than Delta both before vaccines and

    2) After a comparable number/type of vaccines

    Of course, this is paired with

    3) Omi is more infectious

    So it's still uncertain which of the two variants is more dangerous in aggregate, through two mechanisms

    1) Quantity v quality. Infections X rate of hospilitation

    2) Mass isolation of asymptomatic NHS staff leads to excess dwarfs (including non-COVID)

    Sorry, dwarfs should've been "elves" :wink:

    Merry Christmas all - I saw my Grandma today for the first time in two years and I'm about to set about a cheese board. All is well.
    Excellent news! Go on, make us jealous; what cheeses?
    No idea - unveiling the ludicrously expensive I J Mellis hamper shortly :)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,723
    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    My understanding of the Imperial paper was that Omi is

    1) Less likely to cause death/hospitalisation upon infection than Delta both before vaccines and

    2) After a comparable number/type of vaccines

    Of course, this is paired with

    3) Omi is more infectious

    So it's still uncertain which of the two variants is more dangerous in aggregate, through two mechanisms

    1) Quantity v quality. Infections X rate of hospilitation

    2) Mass isolation of asymptomatic NHS staff leads to excess dwarfs (including non-COVID)

    Sorry, dwarfs should've been "elves" :wink:

    Merry Christmas all - I saw my Grandma today for the first time in two years and I'm about to set about a cheese board. All is well.
    Excellent news! Go on, make us jealous; what cheeses?
    No idea - unveiling the ludicrously expensive I J Mellis hamper shortly :)
    Awww! Now I really am envious. Jammy, or rather cheesy, sod.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,757


    No indeed, it's possibly worse. It's on the level as being at least as severe as the original Coronavirus, which is basically what we are seeing: COVID hitting a vaccinated population.

    The South African researchers said :

    > For every 1,000 infections, 44 people ended up in hospital in South Africa in the first wave, 101 in the Delta wave and 38 in Omicron. He and his colleagues estimate that after correcting for vaccination status, age and prior infection Omicron is a third less severe than the original Wuhan strain of coronavirus, which itself is less serious than Delta.

    Which sounds fairly hopeful to me at least.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,723
    ohnotnow said:


    No indeed, it's possibly worse. It's on the level as being at least as severe as the original Coronavirus, which is basically what we are seeing: COVID hitting a vaccinated population.

    The South African researchers said :

    > For every 1,000 infections, 44 people ended up in hospital in South Africa in the first wave, 101 in the Delta wave and 38 in Omicron. He and his colleagues estimate that after correcting for vaccination status, age and prior infection Omicron is a third less severe than the original Wuhan strain of coronavirus, which itself is less serious than Delta.

    Which sounds fairly hopeful to me at least.
    Just wait till you get to the next thread ...

    Anyway must go and open the last of the Christmas cards and put the small bottle of rose sparkling in the fridge for tomorrow (Mrs C can't drink the stuff, so I don't get a whole bottle to myself).
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,757
    Carnyx said:


    Just wait till you get to the next thread ...

    I *knew* I shouldn't have replied....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,569
    Leon said:

    God help us


    They are talking about THREE MONTHS


    "Scientists have looked at the effects of a potential return to step 2 restrictions from 28 December or 1 January, lasting either two weeks, four weeks or three months until 28 March. No 10 said the data had not yet been considered by ministers.

    "Step 2 – part of last year’s roadmap – includes a ban on indoor social mixing, a return of the rule of six, and bars and restaurants only able to serve outdoors."


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/24/decision-on-stricter-covid-rules-for-england-may-come-on-monday

    Modelling several scenarios, nothing more.

    Negative LFTs for myself, Mrs Foxy and Fox jr2 who has arrived from plague City. So far so good.

    The fly in the ointment? Or duty doctor is feeling rough and gone for a PCR...
This discussion has been closed.