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The Johnson 2022 exit betting gets tighter – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited December 2021 in General
imageThe Johnson 2022 exit betting gets tighter – politicalbetting.com

So far I have only got a small bet on this market and it was placed some time ago. Although all the pressure today has been absolutely dreadful for Johnson I’m still not convinced that he’ll go of his own accord or that there will be a successful move amongst Conservative MP’s to get rid of him.

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,301
    First.
  • "Updated vaccine effectiveness analysis shows mRNA boosters beginning to wane from one month (week 5-9) for Omicron, and as low as 30-50% effective from 10 weeks post-booster."

    Moderna and Pfizer need to crack on and make a Omicron version.
  • jonny83 said:

    Cookie said:

    stodge said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1474065585495588869

    BREAKING: People with Omicron are significantly less likely to develop severe symptoms, but the effects of the booster vaccine wane after 10 weeks, according to new analysis by the UK Health Security Agency.

    That's a bit of an arse as it is nearly twelve weeks since I received my booster.
    That's really serious - we've rushed to vaccinate millions only to find we've only bought ourselves a little time at most.
    Well let's not panic yet. Does it mean 'start to wane' after 10 weeks - and if so, how quickly does it decline? And where does it decline to?
    https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1474071983067389958?t=6SzgWX5Gs8PV1rp7us_37w&s=19

    Good thread there about the UKHSA findings.

    There is some good news, ok news, bad news, potentially down the line really bad news. Bit of everything really.
    This does not mean Omicron *causes mild disease* These are epidemiological studies which tell us Omicron *is less likely to cause* severe disease.

    This has been my worry, people hear milder, it doesn't mean mild.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 1,030
    edited December 2021
    Second. I think there are too many variables to make Johnson’s exit a value bet yet.
    Edit. Not second!
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,162

    "Updated vaccine effectiveness analysis shows mRNA boosters beginning to wane from one month (week 5-9) for Omicron, and as low as 30-50% effective from 10 weeks post-booster."

    Moderna and Pfizer need to crack on and make a Omicron version.

    At some point the decision might need to be made to focus on turning round successive jabs for more vulnerable people faster than sequentially boosting the entire population each time.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 2,485

    jonny83 said:

    Cookie said:

    stodge said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1474065585495588869

    BREAKING: People with Omicron are significantly less likely to develop severe symptoms, but the effects of the booster vaccine wane after 10 weeks, according to new analysis by the UK Health Security Agency.

    That's a bit of an arse as it is nearly twelve weeks since I received my booster.
    That's really serious - we've rushed to vaccinate millions only to find we've only bought ourselves a little time at most.
    Well let's not panic yet. Does it mean 'start to wane' after 10 weeks - and if so, how quickly does it decline? And where does it decline to?
    https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1474071983067389958?t=6SzgWX5Gs8PV1rp7us_37w&s=19

    Good thread there about the UKHSA findings.

    There is some good news, ok news, bad news, potentially down the line really bad news. Bit of everything really.
    This does not mean Omicron *causes mild disease* These are epidemiological studies which tell us Omicron *is less likely to cause* severe disease.

    This has been my worry, people hear milder, it doesn't mean mild.
    At this point, I'll take my chances. Happy for those who want to self isolate to self isolate, but utterly done with governments telling me what I can and cannot do. I want to live. I am not prepared to endure another lockdown.
  • TELEGRAPH: New Year’s likely to escape new curbs

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1474135135847079943?s=20
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021

    "Updated vaccine effectiveness analysis shows mRNA boosters beginning to wane from one month (week 5-9) for Omicron, and as low as 30-50% effective from 10 weeks post-booster."

    Moderna and Pfizer need to crack on and make a Omicron version.

    At some point the decision might need to be made to focus on turning round successive jabs for more vulnerable people faster than sequentially boosting the entire population each time.
    Yes. It honestly looking like for the already low risk category, the risk is going to be even lower, especially if you already had 3 jabs worth. I am not in the least bit concerned.

    But for the old and vulnerable, until there is a specific Omicron one, I think going to be more important for them to getting a 4 and probably a 5th jab.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869

    jonny83 said:

    Cookie said:

    stodge said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1474065585495588869

    BREAKING: People with Omicron are significantly less likely to develop severe symptoms, but the effects of the booster vaccine wane after 10 weeks, according to new analysis by the UK Health Security Agency.

    That's a bit of an arse as it is nearly twelve weeks since I received my booster.
    That's really serious - we've rushed to vaccinate millions only to find we've only bought ourselves a little time at most.
    Well let's not panic yet. Does it mean 'start to wane' after 10 weeks - and if so, how quickly does it decline? And where does it decline to?
    https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1474071983067389958?t=6SzgWX5Gs8PV1rp7us_37w&s=19

    Good thread there about the UKHSA findings.

    There is some good news, ok news, bad news, potentially down the line really bad news. Bit of everything really.
    This does not mean Omicron *causes mild disease* These are epidemiological studies which tell us Omicron *is less likely to cause* severe disease.

    "This has been my worry, people hear milder, it doesn't mean mild.
    What I find interesting is that the *proportion* of Omicron infections that are reinfections is increasing weekly, and not levelling off yet.

    This needs a close watch

    It may mean Omicron is finding a nice niche in people with weak immunity while the # of immune naive decreases

    And what it certainly suggests is we are missing an ever increasing number of infections in our daily case numbers as we do not currently count re-infections (coming January!)

    For example today’s record-breaking cases could still be short by 12,000 cases 😬"

    From the same twitter thread.

    https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1474075015272443909?s=19

    So increasing numbers of reinfections. What we don't know yet is whether Omicron infection protects against delta. Immune escape may well be in both directions due to differing antigens. The idea that this is an "infectious vaccine" may well have little grounding in fact.
  • kyf_100 said:

    jonny83 said:

    Cookie said:

    stodge said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1474065585495588869

    BREAKING: People with Omicron are significantly less likely to develop severe symptoms, but the effects of the booster vaccine wane after 10 weeks, according to new analysis by the UK Health Security Agency.

    That's a bit of an arse as it is nearly twelve weeks since I received my booster.
    That's really serious - we've rushed to vaccinate millions only to find we've only bought ourselves a little time at most.
    Well let's not panic yet. Does it mean 'start to wane' after 10 weeks - and if so, how quickly does it decline? And where does it decline to?
    https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1474071983067389958?t=6SzgWX5Gs8PV1rp7us_37w&s=19

    Good thread there about the UKHSA findings.

    There is some good news, ok news, bad news, potentially down the line really bad news. Bit of everything really.
    This does not mean Omicron *causes mild disease* These are epidemiological studies which tell us Omicron *is less likely to cause* severe disease.

    This has been my worry, people hear milder, it doesn't mean mild.
    At this point, I'll take my chances. Happy for those who want to self isolate to self isolate, but utterly done with governments telling me what I can and cannot do. I want to live. I am not prepared to endure another lockdown.
    As long as you aren't old, fat and anti-vax, all the data is pointing towards low risk. It is the old and vulnerable where there still could be an issue.
  • Wow. Just wow.

    This is a prof and senior editor at American Journal of Epidemiology. Tips for avoiding omi this xmas:


    Dr Ellie Murray, ScD
    @EpiEllie
    Idea 10: If your gathering has a meal, consider having people plan to bring the food home rather than eating all together. Eating requires unmasking & unmasking means more chance of transmission.

    Alternative: have different households eat in different rooms at the gathering.
  • Wow. Just wow.

    This is a prof and senior editor at American Journal of Epidemiology. Tips for avoiding omi this xmas:


    Dr Ellie Murray, ScD
    @EpiEllie
    Idea 10: If your gathering has a meal, consider having people plan to bring the food home rather than eating all together. Eating requires unmasking & unmasking means more chance of transmission.

    Alternative: have different households eat in different rooms at the gathering.

    Well some regions of Germany, if you aren't vaccinated, no more than 3 of you for Christmas lunch...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    Foxy said:

    jonny83 said:

    Cookie said:

    stodge said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1474065585495588869

    BREAKING: People with Omicron are significantly less likely to develop severe symptoms, but the effects of the booster vaccine wane after 10 weeks, according to new analysis by the UK Health Security Agency.

    That's a bit of an arse as it is nearly twelve weeks since I received my booster.
    That's really serious - we've rushed to vaccinate millions only to find we've only bought ourselves a little time at most.
    Well let's not panic yet. Does it mean 'start to wane' after 10 weeks - and if so, how quickly does it decline? And where does it decline to?
    https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1474071983067389958?t=6SzgWX5Gs8PV1rp7us_37w&s=19

    Good thread there about the UKHSA findings.

    There is some good news, ok news, bad news, potentially down the line really bad news. Bit of everything really.
    This does not mean Omicron *causes mild disease* These are epidemiological studies which tell us Omicron *is less likely to cause* severe disease.

    "This has been my worry, people hear milder, it doesn't mean mild.
    What I find interesting is that the *proportion* of Omicron infections that are reinfections is increasing weekly, and not levelling off yet.

    This needs a close watch

    It may mean Omicron is finding a nice niche in people with weak immunity while the # of immune naive decreases

    And what it certainly suggests is we are missing an ever increasing number of infections in our daily case numbers as we do not currently count re-infections (coming January!)

    For example today’s record-breaking cases could still be short by 12,000 cases 😬"

    From the same twitter thread.

    https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1474075015272443909?s=19

    So increasing numbers of reinfections. What we don't know yet is whether Omicron infection protects against delta. Immune escape may well be in both directions due to differing antigens. The idea that this is an "infectious vaccine" may well have little grounding in fact.
    We really now should be including them in the figures, given it is clear the level of immune escape is significant (compared to delta where it was a very small). Same as delineating between vaccination status.
  • So it seems like, we really need to get on and boost people again, that news was lost
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 21,301

    So it seems like, we really need to get on and boost people again, that news was lost

    Don't tell Gordon Brown.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617

    Wow. Just wow.

    This is a prof and senior editor at American Journal of Epidemiology. Tips for avoiding omi this xmas:


    Dr Ellie Murray, ScD
    @EpiEllie
    Idea 10: If your gathering has a meal, consider having people plan to bring the food home rather than eating all together. Eating requires unmasking & unmasking means more chance of transmission.

    Alternative: have different households eat in different rooms at the gathering.

    Have Ellie Murray and Susan Michie ever been seen together in the same room?

    Not that one could tell, of course, given the full hazmat suits.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,651
    Late evening all :)

    Even if there were to be a VONC against Johnson, he'd likely survive without too many problems. Yes, 98 Conservative MPs rebelled against Covid passes but a lot more supported the Government and how many of the 98 would actively oppose Johnson in a vote.

    I suspect the anti-Johnson candidate would likely get 50-60 votes with a few more abstentions.

    May won 200-117 a little more than three years ago. You have to go back to IDS to find a Conservative leader (in Opposition) who lost a VONC of the parliamentary party.

    I cannot conceive of Johnson losing a confidence vote - there are only two ways he will go - one, if he walks or is persuaded to walk and two, if a serious challenger (and we're talking Sunak or Truss) takes him on.
  • So it seems like, we really need to get on and boost people again, that news was lost

    The most vulnerable were already down for a 4th jab. I suspect we will be back to the JCVI for some more hand-wringing for 2-3 months...before they come up with some stupid fudge.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281
    edited December 2021

    jonny83 said:

    Cookie said:

    stodge said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1474065585495588869

    BREAKING: People with Omicron are significantly less likely to develop severe symptoms, but the effects of the booster vaccine wane after 10 weeks, according to new analysis by the UK Health Security Agency.

    That's a bit of an arse as it is nearly twelve weeks since I received my booster.
    That's really serious - we've rushed to vaccinate millions only to find we've only bought ourselves a little time at most.
    Well let's not panic yet. Does it mean 'start to wane' after 10 weeks - and if so, how quickly does it decline? And where does it decline to?
    https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1474071983067389958?t=6SzgWX5Gs8PV1rp7us_37w&s=19

    Good thread there about the UKHSA findings.

    There is some good news, ok news, bad news, potentially down the line really bad news. Bit of everything really.
    This does not mean Omicron *causes mild disease* These are epidemiological studies which tell us Omicron *is less likely to cause* severe disease.

    This has been my worry, people hear milder, it doesn't mean mild.
    It means a far better chance of not being hospitalised. That's all.
    Perhaps a better chance of no symptoms at all? I don't know if that has been shown yet?
    It does show a buggerish tendency to break through vaccination.
    We need the 12" Omicron re-mix version.
  • Wow. Just wow.

    This is a prof and senior editor at American Journal of Epidemiology. Tips for avoiding omi this xmas:


    Dr Ellie Murray, ScD
    @EpiEllie
    Idea 10: If your gathering has a meal, consider having people plan to bring the food home rather than eating all together. Eating requires unmasking & unmasking means more chance of transmission.

    Alternative: have different households eat in different rooms at the gathering.

    Well some regions of Germany, if you aren't vaccinated, no more than 3 of you for Christmas lunch...
    I'm lost. If Omi is as infectious as feck, then what difference does it make? You either don't go the gathering or you go and you take the risk. If you go to a family gathering in the same house and one has covid then you may well get it.

    These people are supposed to be scientists.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    dixiedean said:

    jonny83 said:

    Cookie said:

    stodge said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1474065585495588869

    BREAKING: People with Omicron are significantly less likely to develop severe symptoms, but the effects of the booster vaccine wane after 10 weeks, according to new analysis by the UK Health Security Agency.

    That's a bit of an arse as it is nearly twelve weeks since I received my booster.
    That's really serious - we've rushed to vaccinate millions only to find we've only bought ourselves a little time at most.
    Well let's not panic yet. Does it mean 'start to wane' after 10 weeks - and if so, how quickly does it decline? And where does it decline to?
    https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1474071983067389958?t=6SzgWX5Gs8PV1rp7us_37w&s=19

    Good thread there about the UKHSA findings.

    There is some good news, ok news, bad news, potentially down the line really bad news. Bit of everything really.
    This does not mean Omicron *causes mild disease* These are epidemiological studies which tell us Omicron *is less likely to cause* severe disease.

    This has been my worry, people hear milder, it doesn't mean mild.
    It means a far better chance of not being hospitalised. That's all.
    Perhaps a better chance of no symptoms at all? I don't know if that has been shown yet?
    It does show a buggerish tendency to break through vaccination.
    We need the 12" Omicron re-mix version.
    I know that, you know that. But that isn't what the general public will hear. They will hear MILD. I had the misfortune to leave GB News on after that Lindsay Hoyle interview and this is exactly what the loud mouth oink was going on about, its mild, no masks, no restrictions, cos its mild.
  • TELEGRAPH: New Year’s likely to escape new curbs

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1474135135847079943?s=20

    Translation: Johnson does not want a load of 1922 letters to arrive just a day or two before New Year.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281

    dixiedean said:

    jonny83 said:

    Cookie said:

    stodge said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1474065585495588869

    BREAKING: People with Omicron are significantly less likely to develop severe symptoms, but the effects of the booster vaccine wane after 10 weeks, according to new analysis by the UK Health Security Agency.

    That's a bit of an arse as it is nearly twelve weeks since I received my booster.
    That's really serious - we've rushed to vaccinate millions only to find we've only bought ourselves a little time at most.
    Well let's not panic yet. Does it mean 'start to wane' after 10 weeks - and if so, how quickly does it decline? And where does it decline to?
    https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1474071983067389958?t=6SzgWX5Gs8PV1rp7us_37w&s=19

    Good thread there about the UKHSA findings.

    There is some good news, ok news, bad news, potentially down the line really bad news. Bit of everything really.
    This does not mean Omicron *causes mild disease* These are epidemiological studies which tell us Omicron *is less likely to cause* severe disease.

    This has been my worry, people hear milder, it doesn't mean mild.
    It means a far better chance of not being hospitalised. That's all.
    Perhaps a better chance of no symptoms at all? I don't know if that has been shown yet?
    It does show a buggerish tendency to break through vaccination.
    We need the 12" Omicron re-mix version.
    I know that, you know that. But that isn't what the general public will hear. They will hear MILD. I had the misfortune to leave GB News on after that Lindsay Hoyle interview and this is exactly what the loud mouth oink was going on about, its mild, no masks, no restrictions, cos its mild.
    Is a loud mouth oink a Peppa Pig fan?
    Seriously though. There are other impacts too.
    Should I get a booster? No rush, it's "mild".
    What do you mean can't come in to work? Everyone says "it's mild"! Skiver.
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    jonny83 said:

    Cookie said:

    stodge said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1474065585495588869

    BREAKING: People with Omicron are significantly less likely to develop severe symptoms, but the effects of the booster vaccine wane after 10 weeks, according to new analysis by the UK Health Security Agency.

    That's a bit of an arse as it is nearly twelve weeks since I received my booster.
    That's really serious - we've rushed to vaccinate millions only to find we've only bought ourselves a little time at most.
    Well let's not panic yet. Does it mean 'start to wane' after 10 weeks - and if so, how quickly does it decline? And where does it decline to?
    https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1474071983067389958?t=6SzgWX5Gs8PV1rp7us_37w&s=19

    Good thread there about the UKHSA findings.

    There is some good news, ok news, bad news, potentially down the line really bad news. Bit of everything really.
    This does not mean Omicron *causes mild disease* These are epidemiological studies which tell us Omicron *is less likely to cause* severe disease.

    This has been my worry, people hear milder, it doesn't mean mild.
    It means a far better chance of not being hospitalised. That's all.
    Perhaps a better chance of no symptoms at all? I don't know if that has been shown yet?
    It does show a buggerish tendency to break through vaccination.
    We need the 12" Omicron re-mix version.
    I know that, you know that. But that isn't what the general public will hear. They will hear MILD. I had the misfortune to leave GB News on after that Lindsay Hoyle interview and this is exactly what the loud mouth oink was going on about, its mild, no masks, no restrictions, cos its mild.
    Is a loud mouth oink a Peppa Pig fan?
    Seriously though. There are other impacts too.
    Should I get a booster? No rush, it's "mild".
    What do you mean can't come in to work? Everyone says "it's mild"! Skiver.
    No idea who the guy was or if he likes Boris, I would take it from his opening rant, no he doesn't. I turned it over straight away.
  • stodge said:

    Late evening all :)

    Even if there were to be a VONC against Johnson, he'd likely survive without too many problems. Yes, 98 Conservative MPs rebelled against Covid passes but a lot more supported the Government and how many of the 98 would actively oppose Johnson in a vote.

    I suspect the anti-Johnson candidate would likely get 50-60 votes with a few more abstentions.

    May won 200-117 a little more than three years ago. You have to go back to IDS to find a Conservative leader (in Opposition) who lost a VONC of the parliamentary party.

    I cannot conceive of Johnson losing a confidence vote - there are only two ways he will go - one, if he walks or is persuaded to walk and two, if a serious challenger (and we're talking Sunak or Truss) takes him on.

    How does a serious challenger take him on when without a VONC there is no vacancy?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,617
    kyf_100 said:

    jonny83 said:

    Cookie said:

    stodge said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1474065585495588869

    BREAKING: People with Omicron are significantly less likely to develop severe symptoms, but the effects of the booster vaccine wane after 10 weeks, according to new analysis by the UK Health Security Agency.

    That's a bit of an arse as it is nearly twelve weeks since I received my booster.
    That's really serious - we've rushed to vaccinate millions only to find we've only bought ourselves a little time at most.
    Well let's not panic yet. Does it mean 'start to wane' after 10 weeks - and if so, how quickly does it decline? And where does it decline to?
    https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1474071983067389958?t=6SzgWX5Gs8PV1rp7us_37w&s=19

    Good thread there about the UKHSA findings.

    There is some good news, ok news, bad news, potentially down the line really bad news. Bit of everything really.
    This does not mean Omicron *causes mild disease* These are epidemiological studies which tell us Omicron *is less likely to cause* severe disease.

    This has been my worry, people hear milder, it doesn't mean mild.
    At this point, I'll take my chances. Happy for those who want to self isolate to self isolate, but utterly done with governments telling me what I can and cannot do. I want to live. I am not prepared to endure another lockdown.
    Quite. There's only so long that one can keep paying attention to the endless series of panic stories about new variants or waning immunity or this, that and the other percentage chance of ending up in hospital, before you either go crackers fretting about it or just try not to worry anymore.

    I wonder what fraction of the population is being a bit careful and maybe keeping away from pubs and such like now, so as not to muck up Christmas, but will be back out and about come the 26th or 27th - either because they are resigned to catching Covid or honestly past caring? Quite a substantial one, I should imagine.
  • I am sure I had Omicron and the symptoms were very mild for me but I was jabbed almost exactly two weeks prior and that was my third jab. I'm young and healthy. But I did have symptoms, I was not asymptomatic.

    A friend in the 20s has a terribly sore throat and has very bad fatigue. I believe they are double jabbed.

    Anyone who is in their 40s or 50s, want to add anything from their perspective?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    FPT:
    jonny83 said:

    Cookie said:

    stodge said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1474065585495588869

    BREAKING: People with Omicron are significantly less likely to develop severe symptoms, but the effects of the booster vaccine wane after 10 weeks, according to new analysis by the UK Health Security Agency.

    That's a bit of an arse as it is nearly twelve weeks since I received my booster.
    That's really serious - we've rushed to vaccinate millions only to find we've only bought ourselves a little time at most.
    Well let's not panic yet. Does it mean 'start to wane' after 10 weeks - and if so, how quickly does it decline? And where does it decline to?
    https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1474071983067389958?t=6SzgWX5Gs8PV1rp7us_37w&s=19

    Good thread there about the UKHSA findings.

    There is some good news, ok news, bad news, potentially down the line really bad news. Bit of everything really.
    "GROWTH RATES
    Is it slowing down?
    Not yet. Still about 2 day doubling for Omicron, and between 1.5-2.0 days in all regions"


    https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1474083278177120256?s=20
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    Christ....that's what I mean about GB News, its bonkers...then I flick through and they are doing a serious and interesting long form interview with Lindsay Hoyle.

    Its like the Daily Star all of a sudden having a 5 page spread on the horrors of the diamond trade with hardly any pictures.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    edited December 2021
    stodge said:

    Late evening all :)

    Even if there were to be a VONC against Johnson, he'd likely survive without too many problems. Yes, 98 Conservative MPs rebelled against Covid passes but a lot more supported the Government and how many of the 98 would actively oppose Johnson in a vote.

    I suspect the anti-Johnson candidate would likely get 50-60 votes with a few more abstentions.

    May won 200-117 a little more than three years ago. You have to go back to IDS to find a Conservative leader (in Opposition) who lost a VONC of the parliamentary party.

    I cannot conceive of Johnson losing a confidence vote - there are only two ways he will go - one, if he walks or is persuaded to walk and two, if a serious challenger (and we're talking Sunak or Truss) takes him on.

    There has to be a confidence vote first before other candidates can challenge. The rules are different compared to the 1980s/1990s when a candidate could challenge immediately.
  • Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1474065585495588869

    BREAKING: People with Omicron are significantly less likely to develop severe symptoms, but the effects of the booster vaccine wane after 10 weeks, according to new analysis by the UK Health Security Agency.

    We are going to be injecting people forever at this rate.
    I think so - but that's got to be better than restrictions
    If its an alternative I would agree. We need to get to the point that you stay at home only if you are actually ill, not just because you are positive. Of course, such a world gets more problematic for the unvaxxed but, frankly, tough sh1t.
    Philip would say we should go out and infect people but I agree, WFH if you are ill.
    I for one agree completely with David.

    If you're actually ill then stay home and recuperate if you need to do so. Though that should be at your own judgement no different to any other illnesses.

    But if you're positive yet not ill, eg asymptomatic then yes you should live your life as normal.

    Not sure where you link infecting others in with that. The asymptomatic positive, and those who don't know they're positive, and plenty of others can "infect" others. Getting infected with lurgies is something that happens to people every day.
    "infect" inj inverted commas - have you a new theory of disease? Miasma? Planetary alighments?

    What's your position on Typhoid Mary? She was completely asymptomatic positive and wanted to be left to get on with her life as a cook.
    Not just inverted commas, in quotation marks. I was quoting CHB writing "infect" in his post, not challenging the very basis of infection.

    As should have been self evident from my line, and I'll use those quotation marks again while quoting it "The asymptomatic positive, and those who don't know they're positive, and plenty of others can "infect" others."

    Infections are something we have to live with, not eliminate. Sorry but that's reality. This isn't like spreading Typhoid or HIV because those are relatively rare and very serious diseases and if the positive don't spread it then the chances are people won't be exposed to those diseases at all by anyone else.

    That is not the case with an endemic viral infection like the common cold, flu or Covid which frankly is becoming an endemic strain that we will all routinely encounter like the common cold. Yes it may be more serious than the common cold, especially if your immune system is naive to the virus which is why we should take as many vaccinations as are necessary but preventing the asymptomatic from living their lives normally is utterly futile.

    If typhoid were endemic and unavoidable then yes I'd absolutely oppose incarcerating Mary. As it is, I find what was done to her extremely questionable but also not remotely relevant to endemic Covid.
  • Joan makes ind front page:


  • Can somebody explain this “very bad news” down the line? Is that assuming we don’t boost people again?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 33,021

    jonny83 said:

    Cookie said:

    stodge said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1474065585495588869

    BREAKING: People with Omicron are significantly less likely to develop severe symptoms, but the effects of the booster vaccine wane after 10 weeks, according to new analysis by the UK Health Security Agency.

    That's a bit of an arse as it is nearly twelve weeks since I received my booster.
    That's really serious - we've rushed to vaccinate millions only to find we've only bought ourselves a little time at most.
    Well let's not panic yet. Does it mean 'start to wane' after 10 weeks - and if so, how quickly does it decline? And where does it decline to?
    https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1474071983067389958?t=6SzgWX5Gs8PV1rp7us_37w&s=19

    Good thread there about the UKHSA findings.

    There is some good news, ok news, bad news, potentially down the line really bad news. Bit of everything really.
    This does not mean Omicron *causes mild disease* These are epidemiological studies which tell us Omicron *is less likely to cause* severe disease.

    This has been my worry, people hear milder, it doesn't mean mild.
    Mate. Take a break.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 17,920

    "Updated vaccine effectiveness analysis shows mRNA boosters beginning to wane from one month (week 5-9) for Omicron, and as low as 30-50% effective from 10 weeks post-booster."

    Moderna and Pfizer need to crack on and make a Omicron version.

    Yeah. We're coming at this from a situation of acute public health crisis, so it looks great by comparison - it IS great by comparison. But if we normally had an epidemic of anything - even flu - with this level of infection, we'd be pretty alarmed. If there are no New Year restrictions, I suspect we'll have a hurricane of cases in January.

    Personally, I'm shopping and I'm socialising with a few people at a time, but still intend to avoid crowds till the situation is clearer. In the same way, the office remains closed until April at least. It's great that we can relax a bit, but we don't need to swing to the opposite extreme.
  • Interestingly though I have not yet met anyone with the new strain who is asymptomatic. And all of them have not just carried on as normal, they have slowed down, WFH etc.

    Some here would call that silly but it seems sensible to me
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088

    kyf_100 said:

    jonny83 said:

    Cookie said:

    stodge said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1474065585495588869

    BREAKING: People with Omicron are significantly less likely to develop severe symptoms, but the effects of the booster vaccine wane after 10 weeks, according to new analysis by the UK Health Security Agency.

    That's a bit of an arse as it is nearly twelve weeks since I received my booster.
    That's really serious - we've rushed to vaccinate millions only to find we've only bought ourselves a little time at most.
    Well let's not panic yet. Does it mean 'start to wane' after 10 weeks - and if so, how quickly does it decline? And where does it decline to?
    https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1474071983067389958?t=6SzgWX5Gs8PV1rp7us_37w&s=19

    Good thread there about the UKHSA findings.

    There is some good news, ok news, bad news, potentially down the line really bad news. Bit of everything really.
    This does not mean Omicron *causes mild disease* These are epidemiological studies which tell us Omicron *is less likely to cause* severe disease.

    This has been my worry, people hear milder, it doesn't mean mild.
    At this point, I'll take my chances. Happy for those who want to self isolate to self isolate, but utterly done with governments telling me what I can and cannot do. I want to live. I am not prepared to endure another lockdown.
    As long as you aren't old, fat and anti-vax, all the data is pointing towards low risk. It is the old and vulnerable where there still could be an issue.
    That's made up my mind... I'm going to get younger.
  • jonny83 said:

    Cookie said:

    stodge said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1474065585495588869

    BREAKING: People with Omicron are significantly less likely to develop severe symptoms, but the effects of the booster vaccine wane after 10 weeks, according to new analysis by the UK Health Security Agency.

    That's a bit of an arse as it is nearly twelve weeks since I received my booster.
    That's really serious - we've rushed to vaccinate millions only to find we've only bought ourselves a little time at most.
    Well let's not panic yet. Does it mean 'start to wane' after 10 weeks - and if so, how quickly does it decline? And where does it decline to?
    https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1474071983067389958?t=6SzgWX5Gs8PV1rp7us_37w&s=19

    Good thread there about the UKHSA findings.

    There is some good news, ok news, bad news, potentially down the line really bad news. Bit of everything really.
    This does not mean Omicron *causes mild disease* These are epidemiological studies which tell us Omicron *is less likely to cause* severe disease.

    This has been my worry, people hear milder, it doesn't mean mild.
    It does mean mild for most people, in the same way that the flu is mild. If all most people face is bed rest for a few days then that's not worth sacrificing life over.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,582
    edited December 2021
    TOPPING said:

    jonny83 said:

    Cookie said:

    stodge said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1474065585495588869

    BREAKING: People with Omicron are significantly less likely to develop severe symptoms, but the effects of the booster vaccine wane after 10 weeks, according to new analysis by the UK Health Security Agency.

    That's a bit of an arse as it is nearly twelve weeks since I received my booster.
    That's really serious - we've rushed to vaccinate millions only to find we've only bought ourselves a little time at most.
    Well let's not panic yet. Does it mean 'start to wane' after 10 weeks - and if so, how quickly does it decline? And where does it decline to?
    https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1474071983067389958?t=6SzgWX5Gs8PV1rp7us_37w&s=19

    Good thread there about the UKHSA findings.

    There is some good news, ok news, bad news, potentially down the line really bad news. Bit of everything really.
    This does not mean Omicron *causes mild disease* These are epidemiological studies which tell us Omicron *is less likely to cause* severe disease.

    This has been my worry, people hear milder, it doesn't mean mild.
    Mate. Take a break.
    What....there is lots to be positive from this research, but you also have to be truthful. That is a direct quote from the twitter thread summarising the research.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    edited December 2021

    TELEGRAPH: New Year’s likely to escape new curbs

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1474135135847079943?s=20

    I suspect not. Once the chill blast of omi hits full-force in January, I reckon HMG will succumb to the pressure to tighten things further.

    I hope I am wrong.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 993

    So it seems like, we really need to get on and boost people again, that news was lost

    I think it makes the imperative for pharma clear: get an Omicron and/or multivalent vaccine on the market as soon as possible.

    There was no financial rationale to accelerate trials and approval of variant vaccines while developed world demand for the original was going strong. Now the evidence seems clear: essentially a booster only helps vs omicron because the initial flood of antibodies is enough to neutralise a few virus cells. Now we know immunity wanes quite quickly with the original jab it makes sense to spend the 109s of millions needed to get a variant jab through trials and approval.

    I expect Moderna will be first because they have less of a manufacturing order book for the original than Pfizer. Then probably AZ given they’ve been beaten in recent months in the rich world markets by mRNA. And perhaps some others who missed the boat first time around.

    The “risk” for vaccine manufacturers is that if the new variants from Omicron onward are that much milder, governments may be in less of a hurry to order ahead of demand. But they still spend billions on seasonal flu jabs every year so the market remains there.
  • TELEGRAPH: New Year’s likely to escape new curbs

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1474135135847079943?s=20

    I suspect not. Once the chill blast of omi hits full-force in January, I reckon HMG will succumb to the pressure to tighten things further.

    I hope I am wrong.
    I still fully expect at least a tightening of restrictions in January. Nightclubs closed, that sort of thing.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088

    Interestingly though I have not yet met anyone with the new strain who is asymptomatic. And all of them have not just carried on as normal, they have slowed down, WFH etc.

    Some here would call that silly but it seems sensible to me

    How would you know if you had met anyone with the new strain who was asymptomatic?
  • TELEGRAPH: New Year’s likely to escape new curbs

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1474135135847079943?s=20

    Translation: Johnson does not want a load of 1922 letters to arrive just a day or two before New Year.
    Is it too much to ask that, in the midst of the most serious public health crisis of our lifetimes, the policies adopted by the Government might be actually determined by a balanced assessment of the interests of the country rather than by the desperate attempts of one man to find a way out of the political mess he has dug himself into with his own party?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 14,756
    edited December 2021

    Interestingly though I have not yet met anyone with the new strain who is asymptomatic. And all of them have not just carried on as normal, they have slowed down, WFH etc.

    Some here would call that silly but it seems sensible to me

    How would you know if you had met anyone with the new strain who was asymptomatic?
    If they'd taken a test perhaps.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281

    I am sure I had Omicron and the symptoms were very mild for me but I was jabbed almost exactly two weeks prior and that was my third jab. I'm young and healthy. But I did have symptoms, I was not asymptomatic.

    A friend in the 20s has a terribly sore throat and has very bad fatigue. I believe they are double jabbed.

    Anyone who is in their 40s or 50s, want to add anything from their perspective?

    50s. Same as your friend. Double jabbed. Still sleeping 12 hours a day 2 weeks in. Very odd fatigue too. Can feel perfectly fine and energetic, then just need to crash out for a few hours. This comes on in about 10 minutes.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    Ok, I'm going to have a wild shot in the dark here: Earth.
  • I don't know why people persist with the myth that Christmas has anything to do with a baby two thousand years ago.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 993
    edited December 2021

    TELEGRAPH: New Year’s likely to escape new curbs

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1474135135847079943?s=20

    I suspect not. Once the chill blast of omi hits full-force in January, I reckon HMG will succumb to the pressure to tighten things further.

    I hope I am wrong.
    I think we’re past that. Restrictions were only ever a temporary emergency measure, to be used in extremis. Omi will be familiar to us by January - it will have lost the terror factor of the unknown and exotic. I get the feeling that people across the political spectrum have finally come to some consensus that it’s time to get back to a more normal situation.

    It’s not easy, and it feels like tempting fate: like reducing the terrorist threat from imminent to severe, or whatever the terminology is, but as with terrorism nobody wants to live in a permanent state of emergency.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088

    TELEGRAPH: New Year’s likely to escape new curbs

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1474135135847079943?s=20

    I suspect not. Once the chill blast of omi hits full-force in January, I reckon HMG will succumb to the pressure to tighten things further.

    I hope I am wrong.
    I still fully expect at least a tightening of restrictions in January. Nightclubs closed, that sort of thing.
    Agreed.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,162
    TimS said:


    The “risk” for vaccine manufacturers is that if the new variants from Omicron onward are that much milder, governments may be in less of a hurry to order ahead of demand. But they still spend billions on seasonal flu jabs every year so the market remains there.

    There must also be a risk that by the time an Omicron-specific jab is getting done in high numbers we're already talking about the variant after.

    To me it's still hard to see at this point how we get proactively out in front of covid as opposed to running flat out to keep up with it, but perhaps the experts see the medium term possibilities better, or maybe it's just a case of fingers crossed and that the whole situation plays itself out with just the right large-scale nudges at the right moments.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    TimS said:

    TELEGRAPH: New Year’s likely to escape new curbs

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1474135135847079943?s=20

    I suspect not. Once the chill blast of omi hits full-force in January, I reckon HMG will succumb to the pressure to tighten things further.

    I hope I am wrong.
    I think we’re past that. Restrictions were only ever a temporary emergency measure, to be used in extremis. Omi will be familiar to us by January - it will have lost the terror factor of the unknown and exotic. I get the feeling that people across the political spectrum have finally come to some consensus that it’s time to get back to a more normal

    It’s not easy, and it feels like tempting fare: like reducing the terrorise threat from imminent to severe, or whatever the terminology is, but as with terrorism nobody wants to live in a permanent state of emergency.
    I take your point, and you may be proved right. But the people I talk to are cautious. Still hearing of friends of friends dying, many people have loved ones at heightened risk.

    PS I don't think the anaolgy with terrorism works
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1474065585495588869

    BREAKING: People with Omicron are significantly less likely to develop severe symptoms, but the effects of the booster vaccine wane after 10 weeks, according to new analysis by the UK Health Security Agency.

    We are going to be injecting people forever at this rate.
    I think so - but that's got to be better than restrictions
    If its an alternative I would agree. We need to get to the point that you stay at home only if you are actually ill, not just because you are positive. Of course, such a world gets more problematic for the unvaxxed but, frankly, tough sh1t.
    Philip would say we should go out and infect people but I agree, WFH if you are ill.
    I for one agree completely with David.

    If you're actually ill then stay home and recuperate if you need to do so. Though that should be at your own judgement no different to any other illnesses.

    But if you're positive yet not ill, eg asymptomatic then yes you should live your life as normal.

    Not sure where you link infecting others in with that. The asymptomatic positive, and those who don't know they're positive, and plenty of others can "infect" others. Getting infected with lurgies is something that happens to people every day.
    "infect" inj inverted commas - have you a new theory of disease? Miasma? Planetary alighments?

    What's your position on Typhoid Mary? She was completely asymptomatic positive and wanted to be left to get on with her life as a cook.
    Not just inverted commas, in quotation marks. I was quoting CHB writing "infect" in his post, not challenging the very basis of infection.

    As should have been self evident from my line, and I'll use those quotation marks again while quoting it "The asymptomatic positive, and those who don't know they're positive, and plenty of others can "infect" others."

    Infections are something we have to live with, not eliminate. Sorry but that's reality. This isn't like spreading Typhoid or HIV because those are relatively rare and very serious diseases and if the positive don't spread it then the chances are people won't be exposed to those diseases at all by anyone else.

    That is not the case with an endemic viral infection like the common cold, flu or Covid which frankly is becoming an endemic strain that we will all routinely encounter like the common cold. Yes it may be more serious than the common cold, especially if your immune system is naive to the virus which is why we should take as many vaccinations as are necessary but preventing the asymptomatic from living their lives normally is utterly futile.

    If typhoid were endemic and unavoidable then yes I'd absolutely oppose incarcerating Mary. As it is, I find what was done to her extremely questionable but also not remotely relevant to endemic Covid.
    Covid is not yet reliably an endemic infection. I fear it is verging on irresponsible of you to preach that people should go out irrespective of their moral responsibilities for others, and whe we don't fully understand the dynamics.
  • TELEGRAPH: New Year’s likely to escape new curbs

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1474135135847079943?s=20

    I suspect not. Once the chill blast of omi hits full-force in January, I reckon HMG will succumb to the pressure to tighten things further.

    I hope I am wrong.
    I still fully expect at least a tightening of restrictions in January. Nightclubs closed, that sort of thing.
    Agreed.
    SOMETHING MUST BE DONE!!!!!!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088

    TimS said:


    The “risk” for vaccine manufacturers is that if the new variants from Omicron onward are that much milder, governments may be in less of a hurry to order ahead of demand. But they still spend billions on seasonal flu jabs every year so the market remains there.

    There must also be a risk that by the time an Omicron-specific jab is getting done in high numbers we're already talking about the variant after.

    To me it's still hard to see at this point how we get proactively out in front of covid as opposed to running flat out to keep up with it, but perhaps the experts see the medium term possibilities better, or maybe it's just a case of fingers crossed and that the whole situation plays itself out with just the right large-scale nudges at the right moments.
    Routine quarterly jabs maybe?
  • TimS said:

    TELEGRAPH: New Year’s likely to escape new curbs

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1474135135847079943?s=20

    I suspect not. Once the chill blast of omi hits full-force in January, I reckon HMG will succumb to the pressure to tighten things further.

    I hope I am wrong.
    I think we’re past that. Restrictions were only ever a temporary emergency measure, to be used in extremis. Omi will be familiar to us by January - it will have lost the terror factor of the unknown and exotic. I get the feeling that people across the political spectrum have finally come to some consensus that it’s time to get back to a more normal situation.

    It’s not easy, and it feels like tempting fate: like reducing the terrorist threat from imminent to severe, or whatever the terminology is, but as with terrorism nobody wants to live in a permanent state of emergency.
    "I get the feeling that people across the political spectrum have finally come to some consensus"

    I wonder whether the various parties are starting to seriously pick up in their focus groups that the voting public have reached the point where they accept no more or little more can be done and we have to live with it.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088

    TELEGRAPH: New Year’s likely to escape new curbs

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1474135135847079943?s=20

    I suspect not. Once the chill blast of omi hits full-force in January, I reckon HMG will succumb to the pressure to tighten things further.

    I hope I am wrong.
    I still fully expect at least a tightening of restrictions in January. Nightclubs closed, that sort of thing.
    Agreed.
    SOMETHING MUST BE DONE!!!!!!
    I'm not claiming it should be done, just predicting it will be.
  • Interestingly though I have not yet met anyone with the new strain who is asymptomatic. And all of them have not just carried on as normal, they have slowed down, WFH etc.

    Some here would call that silly but it seems sensible to me

    How would you know if you had met anyone with the new strain who was asymptomatic?
    No fair point mate, it was really a silly point
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,800
    The German-Baltic Chamber of Commerce has written to the Lithuanian government warning that German investors may close their plants in the country unless a "constructive solution to restore Lithuanian-Chinese economic relations" is found

    https://twitter.com/noahbarkin/status/1474039233052659718
  • TimS said:

    TELEGRAPH: New Year’s likely to escape new curbs

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1474135135847079943?s=20

    I suspect not. Once the chill blast of omi hits full-force in January, I reckon HMG will succumb to the pressure to tighten things further.

    I hope I am wrong.
    I think we’re past that. Restrictions were only ever a temporary emergency measure, to be used in extremis. Omi will be familiar to us by January - it will have lost the terror factor of the unknown and exotic. I get the feeling that people across the political spectrum have finally come to some consensus that it’s time to get back to a more normal situation.

    It’s not easy, and it feels like tempting fate: like reducing the terrorist threat from imminent to severe, or whatever the terminology is, but as with terrorism nobody wants to live in a permanent state of emergency.
    "I get the feeling that people across the political spectrum have finally come to some consensus"

    I wonder whether the various parties are starting to seriously pick up in their focus groups that the voting public have reached the point where they accept no more or little more can be done and we have to live with it.

    Drakeford under attack tonight

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/23/mark-drakeford-accused-lying-claim-omicron-probably-severe-delta/
  • TimSTimS Posts: 993
    edited December 2021

    TimS said:


    The “risk” for vaccine manufacturers is that if the new variants from Omicron onward are that much milder, governments may be in less of a hurry to order ahead of demand. But they still spend billions on seasonal flu jabs every year so the market remains there.

    There must also be a risk that by the time an Omicron-specific jab is getting done in high numbers we're already talking about the variant after.

    To me it's still hard to see at this point how we get proactively out in front of covid as opposed to running flat out to keep up with it, but perhaps the experts see the medium term possibilities better, or maybe it's just a case of fingers crossed and that the whole situation plays itself out with just the right large-scale nudges at the right moments.
    I am assuming that the next variant will be a mutation of Omicron, so an Omicron-specific vaccination will be more effective than one against wild type. Of course something could spring out of nowhere, like Omi did, perhaps from an animal reservoir, but it seems most likely we’ll be talking offspring of omicron.

    This is why in the long term pan-COV jabs will be a big breakthrough. But for the moment we should settle into something similar to the seasonal flu vaccine cycle: WHO declares the season’s strain for the hemisphere (ie twice a year), manufacturers hurry to make a strain-specific jab, we get them into arms. Covid mutâtes much more slowly than flu so this should be perfectly feasible.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,875

    TimS said:

    TELEGRAPH: New Year’s likely to escape new curbs

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1474135135847079943?s=20

    I suspect not. Once the chill blast of omi hits full-force in January, I reckon HMG will succumb to the pressure to tighten things further.

    I hope I am wrong.
    I think we’re past that. Restrictions were only ever a temporary emergency measure, to be used in extremis. Omi will be familiar to us by January - it will have lost the terror factor of the unknown and exotic. I get the feeling that people across the political spectrum have finally come to some consensus that it’s time to get back to a more normal situation.

    It’s not easy, and it feels like tempting fate: like reducing the terrorist threat from imminent to severe, or whatever the terminology is, but as with terrorism nobody wants to live in a permanent state of emergency.
    "I get the feeling that people across the political spectrum have finally come to some consensus"

    I wonder whether the various parties are starting to seriously pick up in their focus groups that the voting public have reached the point where they accept no more or little more can be done and we have to live with it.

    Drakeford under attack tonight

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/23/mark-drakeford-accused-lying-claim-omicron-probably-severe-delta/
    "accused" - doesn';t mean he did.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 993

    TimS said:


    The “risk” for vaccine manufacturers is that if the new variants from Omicron onward are that much milder, governments may be in less of a hurry to order ahead of demand. But they still spend billions on seasonal flu jabs every year so the market remains there.

    There must also be a risk that by the time an Omicron-specific jab is getting done in high numbers we're already talking about the variant after.

    To me it's still hard to see at this point how we get proactively out in front of covid as opposed to running flat out to keep up with it, but perhaps the experts see the medium term possibilities better, or maybe it's just a case of fingers crossed and that the whole situation plays itself out with just the right large-scale nudges at the right moments.
    Routine quarterly jabs maybe?
    Flu is semi-annual (one strain for NH winter then one for SH winter) but each person gets jabbed only annually, and the mutation rate is orders of magnitude greater than for Covid.
  • TELEGRAPH: New Year’s likely to escape new curbs

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1474135135847079943?s=20

    I suspect not. Once the chill blast of omi hits full-force in January, I reckon HMG will succumb to the pressure to tighten things further.

    I hope I am wrong.
    I still fully expect at least a tightening of restrictions in January. Nightclubs closed, that sort of thing.
    Agreed.
    SOMETHING MUST BE DONE!!!!!!
    I'm not claiming it should be done, just predicting it will be.
    I fear you are right. I can live with rule of six. Schools must remain open. Pubs must remain open.
  • Lucy Fisher
    @LOS_Fisher
    ·
    1h
    New Year's Eve restrictions are increasingly unlikely, say Govt sources.

    One said it's “working assumption” on Whitehall that PM will give only “strong advice” to limit indoor mixing next week, stopping short of recalling MPs & proposing new rules
  • Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1474065585495588869

    BREAKING: People with Omicron are significantly less likely to develop severe symptoms, but the effects of the booster vaccine wane after 10 weeks, according to new analysis by the UK Health Security Agency.

    We are going to be injecting people forever at this rate.
    I think so - but that's got to be better than restrictions
    If its an alternative I would agree. We need to get to the point that you stay at home only if you are actually ill, not just because you are positive. Of course, such a world gets more problematic for the unvaxxed but, frankly, tough sh1t.
    Philip would say we should go out and infect people but I agree, WFH if you are ill.
    I for one agree completely with David.

    If you're actually ill then stay home and recuperate if you need to do so. Though that should be at your own judgement no different to any other illnesses.

    But if you're positive yet not ill, eg asymptomatic then yes you should live your life as normal.

    Not sure where you link infecting others in with that. The asymptomatic positive, and those who don't know they're positive, and plenty of others can "infect" others. Getting infected with lurgies is something that happens to people every day.
    "infect" inj inverted commas - have you a new theory of disease? Miasma? Planetary alighments?

    What's your position on Typhoid Mary? She was completely asymptomatic positive and wanted to be left to get on with her life as a cook.
    Not just inverted commas, in quotation marks. I was quoting CHB writing "infect" in his post, not challenging the very basis of infection.

    As should have been self evident from my line, and I'll use those quotation marks again while quoting it "The asymptomatic positive, and those who don't know they're positive, and plenty of others can "infect" others."

    Infections are something we have to live with, not eliminate. Sorry but that's reality. This isn't like spreading Typhoid or HIV because those are relatively rare and very serious diseases and if the positive don't spread it then the chances are people won't be exposed to those diseases at all by anyone else.

    That is not the case with an endemic viral infection like the common cold, flu or Covid which frankly is becoming an endemic strain that we will all routinely encounter like the common cold. Yes it may be more serious than the common cold, especially if your immune system is naive to the virus which is why we should take as many vaccinations as are necessary but preventing the asymptomatic from living their lives normally is utterly futile.

    If typhoid were endemic and unavoidable then yes I'd absolutely oppose incarcerating Mary. As it is, I find what was done to her extremely questionable but also not remotely relevant to endemic Covid.
    Covid is not yet reliably an endemic infection. I fear it is verging on irresponsible of you to preach that people should go out irrespective of their moral responsibilities for others, and whe we don't fully understand the dynamics.
    And I fear it is verging on irresponsible for others to preach that people should sacrifice their lives and livelihoods for "caution" so it takes two to tango.

    The virus is endemic. It is not a virus that can be eradicated. I'm sorry, that battle if it were ever possible has long since been lost.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 38,321
    edited December 2021

    I don't know why people persist with the myth that Christmas has anything to do with a baby two thousand years ago.
    I know, it’s the same at Easter. You can be perfectly happy eating chocolate mini eggs and using a few days off to redecorate the spare room, yet these annoying killjoys keep trying to bring religion into it.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    TimS said:

    TimS said:


    The “risk” for vaccine manufacturers is that if the new variants from Omicron onward are that much milder, governments may be in less of a hurry to order ahead of demand. But they still spend billions on seasonal flu jabs every year so the market remains there.

    There must also be a risk that by the time an Omicron-specific jab is getting done in high numbers we're already talking about the variant after.

    To me it's still hard to see at this point how we get proactively out in front of covid as opposed to running flat out to keep up with it, but perhaps the experts see the medium term possibilities better, or maybe it's just a case of fingers crossed and that the whole situation plays itself out with just the right large-scale nudges at the right moments.
    Routine quarterly jabs maybe?
    Flu is semi-annual (one strain for NH winter then one for SH winter) but each person gets jabbed only annually, and the mutation rate is orders of magnitude greater than for Covid.
    Flu is seasonal so a jab in late autumn can protect the majority through that next annual season.

    Covid doesn't seem to be seasonal (so far).
  • Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    TELEGRAPH: New Year’s likely to escape new curbs

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1474135135847079943?s=20

    I suspect not. Once the chill blast of omi hits full-force in January, I reckon HMG will succumb to the pressure to tighten things further.

    I hope I am wrong.
    I think we’re past that. Restrictions were only ever a temporary emergency measure, to be used in extremis. Omi will be familiar to us by January - it will have lost the terror factor of the unknown and exotic. I get the feeling that people across the political spectrum have finally come to some consensus that it’s time to get back to a more normal situation.

    It’s not easy, and it feels like tempting fate: like reducing the terrorist threat from imminent to severe, or whatever the terminology is, but as with terrorism nobody wants to live in a permanent state of emergency.
    "I get the feeling that people across the political spectrum have finally come to some consensus"

    I wonder whether the various parties are starting to seriously pick up in their focus groups that the voting public have reached the point where they accept no more or little more can be done and we have to live with it.

    Drakeford under attack tonight

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/23/mark-drakeford-accused-lying-claim-omicron-probably-severe-delta/
    "accused" - doesn';t mean he did.
    He did - I listened to him live and it is exactly what he said

    An amazing story from a friend who today was at a Mcdonald restaurant when a Wales NHS paramedic emergency vehicle stopped, and two paramedics got out mask less and went into Mcdonald's and came out with food and still mask less
  • TimSTimS Posts: 993
    edited December 2021
    It’s strange the lack of any front line anecdotal information from medics in London on Omicron. Have I missed it, or is nobody talking?

    Think how much we heard from doctors in South Africa in the first couple of weeks.

    Perhaps they don’t yet know, first hand, whether the patient they are treating is Delta or Omicron.
  • IanB2 said:

    I don't know why people persist with the myth that Christmas has anything to do with a baby two thousand years ago.
    I know, it’s the same at Easter. You can be perfectly happy eating chocolate mini eggs and using a few days off to redecorate the spare room, yet these annoying killjoys keep trying to bring religion into it.
    The funny thing is that feasts, getting drunk and merriment are infinitely more "traditional" for Christmas than blathering on about a baby or a Church.

    Norse Yule and Roman Saturnalia predate the adoption of the holiday by the Church by about a thousand years. Its always been a holiday about eating and drinking far too much, its what our Norse and Roman ancestors would have been doing.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 993
    edited December 2021

    TimS said:

    TimS said:


    The “risk” for vaccine manufacturers is that if the new variants from Omicron onward are that much milder, governments may be in less of a hurry to order ahead of demand. But they still spend billions on seasonal flu jabs every year so the market remains there.

    There must also be a risk that by the time an Omicron-specific jab is getting done in high numbers we're already talking about the variant after.

    To me it's still hard to see at this point how we get proactively out in front of covid as opposed to running flat out to keep up with it, but perhaps the experts see the medium term possibilities better, or maybe it's just a case of fingers crossed and that the whole situation plays itself out with just the right large-scale nudges at the right moments.
    Routine quarterly jabs maybe?
    Flu is semi-annual (one strain for NH winter then one for SH winter) but each person gets jabbed only annually, and the mutation rate is orders of magnitude greater than for Covid.
    Flu is seasonal so a jab in late autumn can protect the majority through that next annual season.

    Covid doesn't seem to be seasonal (so far).
    Not yet, but I suspect it will be next year. It already shows strong seasonal effects, just overwhelmed by other factors to date like lockdowns and first time vaccinations.

    And flu VE is generally much worse than the current Covid jabs, at least until
    Omicron came along. But it does the job.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088

    TimS said:

    TELEGRAPH: New Year’s likely to escape new curbs

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1474135135847079943?s=20

    I suspect not. Once the chill blast of omi hits full-force in January, I reckon HMG will succumb to the pressure to tighten things further.

    I hope I am wrong.
    I think we’re past that. Restrictions were only ever a temporary emergency measure, to be used in extremis. Omi will be familiar to us by January - it will have lost the terror factor of the unknown and exotic. I get the feeling that people across the political spectrum have finally come to some consensus that it’s time to get back to a more normal situation.

    It’s not easy, and it feels like tempting fate: like reducing the terrorist threat from imminent to severe, or whatever the terminology is, but as with terrorism nobody wants to live in a permanent state of emergency.
    "I get the feeling that people across the political spectrum have finally come to some consensus"

    I wonder whether the various parties are starting to seriously pick up in their focus groups that the voting public have reached the point where they accept no more or little more can be done and we have to live with it.

    Drakeford under attack tonight

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/23/mark-drakeford-accused-lying-claim-omicron-probably-severe-delta/
    I think he could rightly claim omicron is as 'severe' as delta overall:- it's more transmissible, better at evading the current vaccines, but less likely to send an individual to hospital.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:


    The “risk” for vaccine manufacturers is that if the new variants from Omicron onward are that much milder, governments may be in less of a hurry to order ahead of demand. But they still spend billions on seasonal flu jabs every year so the market remains there.

    There must also be a risk that by the time an Omicron-specific jab is getting done in high numbers we're already talking about the variant after.

    To me it's still hard to see at this point how we get proactively out in front of covid as opposed to running flat out to keep up with it, but perhaps the experts see the medium term possibilities better, or maybe it's just a case of fingers crossed and that the whole situation plays itself out with just the right large-scale nudges at the right moments.
    Routine quarterly jabs maybe?
    Flu is semi-annual (one strain for NH winter then one for SH winter) but each person gets jabbed only annually, and the mutation rate is orders of magnitude greater than for Covid.
    Flu is seasonal so a jab in late autumn can protect the majority through that next annual season.

    Covid doesn't seem to be seasonal (so far).
    Not yet, but I suspect it will be next year. It already shows strong seasonal effects, just overwhelmed by other factors to date like lockdowns and first time vaccinations.

    And flu VE is generally much worse than the current Covid jabs, at least until
    Omicron came along. But it does the job.
    The SA omicron peak was in their summer.
  • TELEGRAPH: New Year’s likely to escape new curbs

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1474135135847079943?s=20

    I suspect not. Once the chill blast of omi hits full-force in January, I reckon HMG will succumb to the pressure to tighten things further.

    I hope I am wrong.
    I still fully expect at least a tightening of restrictions in January. Nightclubs closed, that sort of thing.
    I don't.

    What purpose would it serve? And how would that be justified to HMRC and the Treasury who would have to spend even more billions on support packages and lost taxes.

    That boat has sailed. Forget the 99 Rebel Loons we should be eternally grateful to, there's no way that's getting past Sunak.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 19,088

    TELEGRAPH: New Year’s likely to escape new curbs

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1474135135847079943?s=20

    I suspect not. Once the chill blast of omi hits full-force in January, I reckon HMG will succumb to the pressure to tighten things further.

    I hope I am wrong.
    I still fully expect at least a tightening of restrictions in January. Nightclubs closed, that sort of thing.
    I don't.

    What purpose would it serve? And how would that be justified to HMRC and the Treasury who would have to spend even more billions on support packages and lost taxes.

    That boat has sailed. Forget the 99 Rebel Loons we should be eternally grateful to, there's no way that's getting past Sunak.
    That's a keeper.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 47,992
    edited December 2021

    TimS said:

    TELEGRAPH: New Year’s likely to escape new curbs

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1474135135847079943?s=20

    I suspect not. Once the chill blast of omi hits full-force in January, I reckon HMG will succumb to the pressure to tighten things further.

    I hope I am wrong.
    I think we’re past that. Restrictions were only ever a temporary emergency measure, to be used in extremis. Omi will be familiar to us by January - it will have lost the terror factor of the unknown and exotic. I get the feeling that people across the political spectrum have finally come to some consensus that it’s time to get back to a more normal situation.

    It’s not easy, and it feels like tempting fate: like reducing the terrorist threat from imminent to severe, or whatever the terminology is, but as with terrorism nobody wants to live in a permanent state of emergency.
    "I get the feeling that people across the political spectrum have finally come to some consensus"

    I wonder whether the various parties are starting to seriously pick up in their focus groups that the voting public have reached the point where they accept no more or little more can be done and we have to live with it.

    Drakeford under attack tonight

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/23/mark-drakeford-accused-lying-claim-omicron-probably-severe-delta/
    I think he could rightly claim omicron is as 'severe' as delta overall:- it's more transmissible, better at evading the current vaccines, but less likely to send an individual to hospital.
    Not according to the health expert and to be honest when he said it I was not impressed

    The less likely to send an individual to hospital is the absolute key
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,656

    TimS said:

    TELEGRAPH: New Year’s likely to escape new curbs

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1474135135847079943?s=20

    I suspect not. Once the chill blast of omi hits full-force in January, I reckon HMG will succumb to the pressure to tighten things further.

    I hope I am wrong.
    I think we’re past that. Restrictions were only ever a temporary emergency measure, to be used in extremis. Omi will be familiar to us by January - it will have lost the terror factor of the unknown and exotic. I get the feeling that people across the political spectrum have finally come to some consensus that it’s time to get back to a more normal situation.

    It’s not easy, and it feels like tempting fate: like reducing the terrorist threat from imminent to severe, or whatever the terminology is, but as with terrorism nobody wants to live in a permanent state of emergency.
    "I get the feeling that people across the political spectrum have finally come to some consensus"

    I wonder whether the various parties are starting to seriously pick up in their focus groups that the voting public have reached the point where they accept no more or little more can be done and we have to live with it.

    Drakeford under attack tonight

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/23/mark-drakeford-accused-lying-claim-omicron-probably-severe-delta/
    I think he could rightly claim omicron is as 'severe' as delta overall:- it's more transmissible, better at evading the current vaccines, but less likely to send an individual to hospital.
    That just means it is more transmissible. Severity refers to the effect it can have once infected.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 939
    IanB2 said:

    I don't know why people persist with the myth that Christmas has anything to do with a baby two thousand years ago.
    I know, it’s the same at Easter. You can be perfectly happy eating chocolate mini eggs and using a few days off to redecorate the spare room, yet these annoying killjoys keep trying to bring religion into it.
    Personally I think we need to take Easter back to its pagan roots. I am sick of it being perverted by all these recent add ons about crucifixions and caves.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 993

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:


    The “risk” for vaccine manufacturers is that if the new variants from Omicron onward are that much milder, governments may be in less of a hurry to order ahead of demand. But they still spend billions on seasonal flu jabs every year so the market remains there.

    There must also be a risk that by the time an Omicron-specific jab is getting done in high numbers we're already talking about the variant after.

    To me it's still hard to see at this point how we get proactively out in front of covid as opposed to running flat out to keep up with it, but perhaps the experts see the medium term possibilities better, or maybe it's just a case of fingers crossed and that the whole situation plays itself out with just the right large-scale nudges at the right moments.
    Routine quarterly jabs maybe?
    Flu is semi-annual (one strain for NH winter then one for SH winter) but each person gets jabbed only annually, and the mutation rate is orders of magnitude greater than for Covid.
    Flu is seasonal so a jab in late autumn can protect the majority through that next annual season.

    Covid doesn't seem to be seasonal (so far).
    Not yet, but I suspect it will be next year. It already shows strong seasonal effects, just overwhelmed by other factors to date like lockdowns and first time vaccinations.

    And flu VE is generally much worse than the current Covid jabs, at least until
    Omicron came along. But it does the job.
    The SA omicron peak was in their summer.
    Yes, as I said overwhelmed by other factors because we are not quite at endemic state yet but it will settle down. All endemic respiratory COVs are seasonal.

    There’s some very good research from a few months ago showing the net effect of seasonal factors on transmission as well as morbidity. Quite a clear correlation including with basic air temperature. I’ll dig it out.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    The German-Baltic Chamber of Commerce has written to the Lithuanian government warning that German investors may close their plants in the country unless a "constructive solution to restore Lithuanian-Chinese economic relations" is found

    https://twitter.com/noahbarkin/status/1474039233052659718

    Germany really are a mercantilist nation. Shameful.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 993
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:


    The “risk” for vaccine manufacturers is that if the new variants from Omicron onward are that much milder, governments may be in less of a hurry to order ahead of demand. But they still spend billions on seasonal flu jabs every year so the market remains there.

    There must also be a risk that by the time an Omicron-specific jab is getting done in high numbers we're already talking about the variant after.

    To me it's still hard to see at this point how we get proactively out in front of covid as opposed to running flat out to keep up with it, but perhaps the experts see the medium term possibilities better, or maybe it's just a case of fingers crossed and that the whole situation plays itself out with just the right large-scale nudges at the right moments.
    Routine quarterly jabs maybe?
    Flu is semi-annual (one strain for NH winter then one for SH winter) but each person gets jabbed only annually, and the mutation rate is orders of magnitude greater than for Covid.
    Flu is seasonal so a jab in late autumn can protect the majority through that next annual season.

    Covid doesn't seem to be seasonal (so far).
    Not yet, but I suspect it will be next year. It already shows strong seasonal effects, just overwhelmed by other factors to date like lockdowns and first time vaccinations.

    And flu VE is generally much worse than the current Covid jabs, at least until
    Omicron came along. But it does the job.
    The SA omicron peak was in their summer.
    Yes, as I said overwhelmed by other factors because we are not quite at endemic state yet but it will settle down. All endemic respiratory COVs are seasonal.

    There’s some very good research from a few months ago showing the net effect of seasonal factors on transmission as well as morbidity. Quite a clear correlation including with basic air temperature. I’ll dig it out.
    Here you go. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7892320/

    The other common feature seems to be greater seasonality in midlatitude climates than the tropics. Same as flu.

    Whether it’s down to behaviour (greater indoor mixing), UV on surfaces (unlikely with COVs that seem not to spread much through fomites), humidity (some evidence) or human factors like vitamin D doesn’t seem to be clear yet. My money would be on the indoor/outdoor behaviour effect plus humidity.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 993
    Charles said:

    The German-Baltic Chamber of Commerce has written to the Lithuanian government warning that German investors may close their plants in the country unless a "constructive solution to restore Lithuanian-Chinese economic relations" is found

    https://twitter.com/noahbarkin/status/1474039233052659718

    Germany really are a mercantilist nation. Shameful.
    To be fair this is a chamber of commerce ie an industry group not the government. Still, what with this and Nordstream2 there does seem to be a degree of realpolitik gone mad in some corners of the German economy.
  • Aslan said:

    IanB2 said:

    I don't know why people persist with the myth that Christmas has anything to do with a baby two thousand years ago.
    I know, it’s the same at Easter. You can be perfectly happy eating chocolate mini eggs and using a few days off to redecorate the spare room, yet these annoying killjoys keep trying to bring religion into it.
    Personally I think we need to take Easter back to its pagan roots. I am sick of it being perverted by all these recent add ons about crucifixions and caves.
    It would be nice if schools could educate people about the real histories of holidays. There is some historical evidence to show that 25 December was a holiday to celebrity a birthday, but it was celebrating the birth of the Zoroastrian sun god Mithra not a baby.

    The interconnections of a Persian sun god [as perceived by the Romans], Roman traditions and the Norse traditions all form a fascinating history of the festival we now know as Christmas and the traditions of food, merriment, drink and gifts etc that go with that have been celebrated now for well over two and a half thousand years.

    Except for when the Puritans tried and failed to cancel it. So that brings cancel culture into the conversation too.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869

    TOPPING said:

    jonny83 said:

    Cookie said:

    stodge said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1474065585495588869

    BREAKING: People with Omicron are significantly less likely to develop severe symptoms, but the effects of the booster vaccine wane after 10 weeks, according to new analysis by the UK Health Security Agency.

    That's a bit of an arse as it is nearly twelve weeks since I received my booster.
    That's really serious - we've rushed to vaccinate millions only to find we've only bought ourselves a little time at most.
    Well let's not panic yet. Does it mean 'start to wane' after 10 weeks - and if so, how quickly does it decline? And where does it decline to?
    https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1474071983067389958?t=6SzgWX5Gs8PV1rp7us_37w&s=19

    Good thread there about the UKHSA findings.

    There is some good news, ok news, bad news, potentially down the line really bad news. Bit of everything really.
    This does not mean Omicron *causes mild disease* These are epidemiological studies which tell us Omicron *is less likely to cause* severe disease.

    This has been my worry, people hear milder, it doesn't mean mild.
    Mate. Take a break.
    What....there is lots to be positive from this research, but you also have to be truthful. That is a direct quote from the twitter thread summarising the research.
    One of the problems is that people do choose their conclusion then analyse the evidence in order to make it fit. In this interface between infection and society, there are very few being objective.
  • Aslan said:

    IanB2 said:

    I don't know why people persist with the myth that Christmas has anything to do with a baby two thousand years ago.
    I know, it’s the same at Easter. You can be perfectly happy eating chocolate mini eggs and using a few days off to redecorate the spare room, yet these annoying killjoys keep trying to bring religion into it.
    Personally I think we need to take Easter back to its pagan roots. I am sick of it being perverted by all these recent add ons about crucifixions and caves.
    It would be nice if schools could educate people about the real histories of holidays. There is some historical evidence to show that 25 December was a holiday to celebrity a birthday, but it was celebrating the birth of the Zoroastrian sun god Mithra not a baby.

    The interconnections of a Persian sun god [as perceived by the Romans], Roman traditions and the Norse traditions all form a fascinating history of the festival we now know as Christmas and the traditions of food, merriment, drink and gifts etc that go with that have been celebrated now for well over two and a half thousand years.

    Except for when the Puritans tried and failed to cancel it. So that brings cancel culture into the conversation too.
    I wonder who was there to record Mithra's birth on 25th December? All this stuff is made up anyway so it doesn't really matter in the end which religion has overwritten the previous one. I like to see it as a way to celebrate the passing of the shortest day of the year and that Spring will be on the way.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TimS said:

    Charles said:

    The German-Baltic Chamber of Commerce has written to the Lithuanian government warning that German investors may close their plants in the country unless a "constructive solution to restore Lithuanian-Chinese economic relations" is found

    https://twitter.com/noahbarkin/status/1474039233052659718

    Germany really are a mercantilist nation. Shameful.
    To be fair this is a chamber of commerce ie an industry group not the government. Still, what with this and Nordstream2 there does seem to be a degree of realpolitik gone mad in some corners of the German economy.
    Yes, but I doubt they would have written about foreign politics without some blessing
  • TELEGRAPH: New Year’s likely to escape new curbs

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1474135135847079943?s=20

    I suspect not. Once the chill blast of omi hits full-force in January, I reckon HMG will succumb to the pressure to tighten things further.

    I hope I am wrong.
    I still fully expect at least a tightening of restrictions in January. Nightclubs closed, that sort of thing.
    I don't.

    What purpose would it serve? And how would that be justified to HMRC and the Treasury who would have to spend even more billions on support packages and lost taxes.

    That boat has sailed. Forget the 99 Rebel Loons we should be eternally grateful to, there's no way that's getting past Sunak.
    That's a keeper.
    It absolutely is! Keep it and if I'm wrong, feel free to point and laugh at me. But if I'm right, then please give credit where credit's due. Fair's fair. :)
  • AlistairM said:

    Aslan said:

    IanB2 said:

    I don't know why people persist with the myth that Christmas has anything to do with a baby two thousand years ago.
    I know, it’s the same at Easter. You can be perfectly happy eating chocolate mini eggs and using a few days off to redecorate the spare room, yet these annoying killjoys keep trying to bring religion into it.
    Personally I think we need to take Easter back to its pagan roots. I am sick of it being perverted by all these recent add ons about crucifixions and caves.
    It would be nice if schools could educate people about the real histories of holidays. There is some historical evidence to show that 25 December was a holiday to celebrity a birthday, but it was celebrating the birth of the Zoroastrian sun god Mithra not a baby.

    The interconnections of a Persian sun god [as perceived by the Romans], Roman traditions and the Norse traditions all form a fascinating history of the festival we now know as Christmas and the traditions of food, merriment, drink and gifts etc that go with that have been celebrated now for well over two and a half thousand years.

    Except for when the Puritans tried and failed to cancel it. So that brings cancel culture into the conversation too.
    I wonder who was there to record Mithra's birth on 25th December? All this stuff is made up anyway so it doesn't really matter in the end which religion has overwritten the previous one. I like to see it as a way to celebrate the passing of the shortest day of the year and that Spring will be on the way.
    Oh absolutely that's what its about. That's what its always been about.

    Its just amusing when people bemoan feasting and drinking and gift giving etc as not being "the true meaning" of the holiday.

    They literally are "the true meaning" and have been for about two and a half thousand years at least, minus the puritan era.

    When the Church adopted Saturnalia as the birth of Jesus, society kept all the Pagan festivities which have largely passed through to today, despite the best wishes of the Puritans to stamp them out.
  • Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    TELEGRAPH: New Year’s likely to escape new curbs

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1474135135847079943?s=20

    I suspect not. Once the chill blast of omi hits full-force in January, I reckon HMG will succumb to the pressure to tighten things further.

    I hope I am wrong.
    I think we’re past that. Restrictions were only ever a temporary emergency measure, to be used in extremis. Omi will be familiar to us by January - it will have lost the terror factor of the unknown and exotic. I get the feeling that people across the political spectrum have finally come to some consensus that it’s time to get back to a more normal situation.

    It’s not easy, and it feels like tempting fate: like reducing the terrorist threat from imminent to severe, or whatever the terminology is, but as with terrorism nobody wants to live in a permanent state of emergency.
    "I get the feeling that people across the political spectrum have finally come to some consensus"

    I wonder whether the various parties are starting to seriously pick up in their focus groups that the voting public have reached the point where they accept no more or little more can be done and we have to live with it.

    Drakeford under attack tonight

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/23/mark-drakeford-accused-lying-claim-omicron-probably-severe-delta/
    "accused" - doesn';t mean he did.
    The double pronged judgment of Big G and the Tele means Drakeford’s pants are on fire almost certainly.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,281

    Aslan said:

    IanB2 said:

    I don't know why people persist with the myth that Christmas has anything to do with a baby two thousand years ago.
    I know, it’s the same at Easter. You can be perfectly happy eating chocolate mini eggs and using a few days off to redecorate the spare room, yet these annoying killjoys keep trying to bring religion into it.
    Personally I think we need to take Easter back to its pagan roots. I am sick of it being perverted by all these recent add ons about crucifixions and caves.
    It would be nice if schools could educate people about the real histories of holidays. There is some historical evidence to show that 25 December was a holiday to celebrity a birthday, but it was celebrating the birth of the Zoroastrian sun god Mithra not a baby.

    The interconnections of a Persian sun god [as perceived by the Romans], Roman traditions and the Norse traditions all form a fascinating history of the festival we now know as Christmas and the traditions of food, merriment, drink and gifts etc that go with that have been celebrated now for well over two and a half thousand years.

    Except for when the Puritans tried and failed to cancel it. So that brings cancel culture into the conversation too.
    In Taiwan it is Chiang kai-Shek's birthday, a national holiday. Also known as Christmas. Pretty much everywhere has a mid-winter booze and feast.
  • Carnyx said:

    TimS said:

    TELEGRAPH: New Year’s likely to escape new curbs

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1474135135847079943?s=20

    I suspect not. Once the chill blast of omi hits full-force in January, I reckon HMG will succumb to the pressure to tighten things further.

    I hope I am wrong.
    I think we’re past that. Restrictions were only ever a temporary emergency measure, to be used in extremis. Omi will be familiar to us by January - it will have lost the terror factor of the unknown and exotic. I get the feeling that people across the political spectrum have finally come to some consensus that it’s time to get back to a more normal situation.

    It’s not easy, and it feels like tempting fate: like reducing the terrorist threat from imminent to severe, or whatever the terminology is, but as with terrorism nobody wants to live in a permanent state of emergency.
    "I get the feeling that people across the political spectrum have finally come to some consensus"

    I wonder whether the various parties are starting to seriously pick up in their focus groups that the voting public have reached the point where they accept no more or little more can be done and we have to live with it.

    Drakeford under attack tonight

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/23/mark-drakeford-accused-lying-claim-omicron-probably-severe-delta/
    "accused" - doesn';t mean he did.
    The double pronged judgment of Big G and the Tele means Drakeford’s pants are on fire almost certainly.
    The question is did you listen to him live, and if not then you are not in a position to criticise the health expert who has pulled Drakeford up
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,499
    If only someone had told us several weeks ago that Omicron was a mild variant.

    Funny old world.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869

    I don't know why people persist with the myth that Christmas has anything to do with a baby two thousand years ago.
    The clue is in the name. Christ Mass...

    Though I stand with my Calvinist ancestors, tis naught but Popery.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,869
    dixiedean said:

    Aslan said:

    IanB2 said:

    I don't know why people persist with the myth that Christmas has anything to do with a baby two thousand years ago.
    I know, it’s the same at Easter. You can be perfectly happy eating chocolate mini eggs and using a few days off to redecorate the spare room, yet these annoying killjoys keep trying to bring religion into it.
    Personally I think we need to take Easter back to its pagan roots. I am sick of it being perverted by all these recent add ons about crucifixions and caves.
    It would be nice if schools could educate people about the real histories of holidays. There is some historical evidence to show that 25 December was a holiday to celebrity a birthday, but it was celebrating the birth of the Zoroastrian sun god Mithra not a baby.

    The interconnections of a Persian sun god [as perceived by the Romans], Roman traditions and the Norse traditions all form a fascinating history of the festival we now know as Christmas and the traditions of food, merriment, drink and gifts etc that go with that have been celebrated now for well over two and a half thousand years.

    Except for when the Puritans tried and failed to cancel it. So that brings cancel culture into the conversation too.
    In Taiwan it is Chiang kai-Shek's birthday, a national holiday. Also known as Christmas. Pretty much everywhere has a mid-winter booze and feast.
    Conveniently Mohammad Jinnahs birthday too, so a National holiday in Pakistan.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,499

    TimS said:

    TELEGRAPH: New Year’s likely to escape new curbs

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1474135135847079943?s=20

    I suspect not. Once the chill blast of omi hits full-force in January, I reckon HMG will succumb to the pressure to tighten things further.

    I hope I am wrong.
    I think we’re past that. Restrictions were only ever a temporary emergency measure, to be used in extremis. Omi will be familiar to us by January - it will have lost the terror factor of the unknown and exotic. I get the feeling that people across the political spectrum have finally come to some consensus that it’s time to get back to a more normal situation.

    It’s not easy, and it feels like tempting fate: like reducing the terrorist threat from imminent to severe, or whatever the terminology is, but as with terrorism nobody wants to live in a permanent state of emergency.
    "I get the feeling that people across the political spectrum have finally come to some consensus"

    I wonder whether the various parties are starting to seriously pick up in their focus groups that the voting public have reached the point where they accept no more or little more can be done and we have to live with it.

    Drakeford under attack tonight

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/23/mark-drakeford-accused-lying-claim-omicron-probably-severe-delta/
    I think he could rightly claim omicron is as 'severe' as delta overall:- it's more transmissible, better at evading the current vaccines, but less likely to send an individual to hospital.
    I think things would be infinitely better if those who were wrong admitted they were wrong. Nobody really knew much about Covid, less still about Omicron. But lots of important people ignored the only real world evidence we had, and instead indulged in panic. I don’t see how that is a healthy outlook.
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