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The Johnson 2022 exit betting gets tighter – politicalbetting.com
The Johnson 2022 exit betting gets tighter – politicalbetting.com
So far I have only got a small bet on this market and it was placed some time ago. Although all the pressure today has been absolutely dreadful for Johnson I’m still not convinced that he’ll go of his own accord or that there will be a successful move amongst Conservative MP’s to get rid of him.
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Moderna and Pfizer need to crack on and make a Omicron version.
This has been my worry, people hear milder, it doesn't mean mild.
Edit. Not second!
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1474135135847079943?s=20
But for the old and vulnerable, until there is a specific Omicron one, I think going to be more important for them to getting a 4 and probably a 5th jab.
This needs a close watch
It may mean Omicron is finding a nice niche in people with weak immunity while the # of immune naive decreases
And what it certainly suggests is we are missing an ever increasing number of infections in our daily case numbers as we do not currently count re-infections (coming January!)
For example today’s record-breaking cases could still be short by 12,000 cases 😬"
From the same twitter thread.
https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1474075015272443909?s=19
So increasing numbers of reinfections. What we don't know yet is whether Omicron infection protects against delta. Immune escape may well be in both directions due to differing antigens. The idea that this is an "infectious vaccine" may well have little grounding in fact.
This is a prof and senior editor at American Journal of Epidemiology. Tips for avoiding omi this xmas:
Dr Ellie Murray, ScD
@EpiEllie
Idea 10: If your gathering has a meal, consider having people plan to bring the food home rather than eating all together. Eating requires unmasking & unmasking means more chance of transmission.
Alternative: have different households eat in different rooms at the gathering.
Not that one could tell, of course, given the full hazmat suits.
Even if there were to be a VONC against Johnson, he'd likely survive without too many problems. Yes, 98 Conservative MPs rebelled against Covid passes but a lot more supported the Government and how many of the 98 would actively oppose Johnson in a vote.
I suspect the anti-Johnson candidate would likely get 50-60 votes with a few more abstentions.
May won 200-117 a little more than three years ago. You have to go back to IDS to find a Conservative leader (in Opposition) who lost a VONC of the parliamentary party.
I cannot conceive of Johnson losing a confidence vote - there are only two ways he will go - one, if he walks or is persuaded to walk and two, if a serious challenger (and we're talking Sunak or Truss) takes him on.
Perhaps a better chance of no symptoms at all? I don't know if that has been shown yet?
It does show a buggerish tendency to break through vaccination.
We need the 12" Omicron re-mix version.
These people are supposed to be scientists.
Seriously though. There are other impacts too.
Should I get a booster? No rush, it's "mild".
What do you mean can't come in to work? Everyone says "it's mild"! Skiver.
What planet am I living on
I wonder what fraction of the population is being a bit careful and maybe keeping away from pubs and such like now, so as not to muck up Christmas, but will be back out and about come the 26th or 27th - either because they are resigned to catching Covid or honestly past caring? Quite a substantial one, I should imagine.
A friend in the 20s has a terribly sore throat and has very bad fatigue. I believe they are double jabbed.
Anyone who is in their 40s or 50s, want to add anything from their perspective?
Is it slowing down?
Not yet. Still about 2 day doubling for Omicron, and between 1.5-2.0 days in all regions"
https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1474083278177120256?s=20
Its like the Daily Star all of a sudden having a 5 page spread on the horrors of the diamond trade with hardly any pictures.
As should have been self evident from my line, and I'll use those quotation marks again while quoting it "The asymptomatic positive, and those who don't know they're positive, and plenty of others can "infect" others."
Infections are something we have to live with, not eliminate. Sorry but that's reality. This isn't like spreading Typhoid or HIV because those are relatively rare and very serious diseases and if the positive don't spread it then the chances are people won't be exposed to those diseases at all by anyone else.
That is not the case with an endemic viral infection like the common cold, flu or Covid which frankly is becoming an endemic strain that we will all routinely encounter like the common cold. Yes it may be more serious than the common cold, especially if your immune system is naive to the virus which is why we should take as many vaccinations as are necessary but preventing the asymptomatic from living their lives normally is utterly futile.
If typhoid were endemic and unavoidable then yes I'd absolutely oppose incarcerating Mary. As it is, I find what was done to her extremely questionable but also not remotely relevant to endemic Covid.
Personally, I'm shopping and I'm socialising with a few people at a time, but still intend to avoid crowds till the situation is clearer. In the same way, the office remains closed until April at least. It's great that we can relax a bit, but we don't need to swing to the opposite extreme.
Some here would call that silly but it seems sensible to me
I hope I am wrong.
There was no financial rationale to accelerate trials and approval of variant vaccines while developed world demand for the original was going strong. Now the evidence seems clear: essentially a booster only helps vs omicron because the initial flood of antibodies is enough to neutralise a few virus cells. Now we know immunity wanes quite quickly with the original jab it makes sense to spend the 109s of millions needed to get a variant jab through trials and approval.
I expect Moderna will be first because they have less of a manufacturing order book for the original than Pfizer. Then probably AZ given they’ve been beaten in recent months in the rich world markets by mRNA. And perhaps some others who missed the boat first time around.
The “risk” for vaccine manufacturers is that if the new variants from Omicron onward are that much milder, governments may be in less of a hurry to order ahead of demand. But they still spend billions on seasonal flu jabs every year so the market remains there.
It’s not easy, and it feels like tempting fate: like reducing the terrorist threat from imminent to severe, or whatever the terminology is, but as with terrorism nobody wants to live in a permanent state of emergency.
To me it's still hard to see at this point how we get proactively out in front of covid as opposed to running flat out to keep up with it, but perhaps the experts see the medium term possibilities better, or maybe it's just a case of fingers crossed and that the whole situation plays itself out with just the right large-scale nudges at the right moments.
PS I don't think the anaolgy with terrorism works
I wonder whether the various parties are starting to seriously pick up in their focus groups that the voting public have reached the point where they accept no more or little more can be done and we have to live with it.
https://twitter.com/noahbarkin/status/1474039233052659718
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/23/mark-drakeford-accused-lying-claim-omicron-probably-severe-delta/
This is why in the long term pan-COV jabs will be a big breakthrough. But for the moment we should settle into something similar to the seasonal flu vaccine cycle: WHO declares the season’s strain for the hemisphere (ie twice a year), manufacturers hurry to make a strain-specific jab, we get them into arms. Covid mutâtes much more slowly than flu so this should be perfectly feasible.
@LOS_Fisher
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New Year's Eve restrictions are increasingly unlikely, say Govt sources.
One said it's “working assumption” on Whitehall that PM will give only “strong advice” to limit indoor mixing next week, stopping short of recalling MPs & proposing new rules
The virus is endemic. It is not a virus that can be eradicated. I'm sorry, that battle if it were ever possible has long since been lost.
Covid doesn't seem to be seasonal (so far).
An amazing story from a friend who today was at a Mcdonald restaurant when a Wales NHS paramedic emergency vehicle stopped, and two paramedics got out mask less and went into Mcdonald's and came out with food and still mask less
Think how much we heard from doctors in South Africa in the first couple of weeks.
Perhaps they don’t yet know, first hand, whether the patient they are treating is Delta or Omicron.
Norse Yule and Roman Saturnalia predate the adoption of the holiday by the Church by about a thousand years. Its always been a holiday about eating and drinking far too much, its what our Norse and Roman ancestors would have been doing.
And flu VE is generally much worse than the current Covid jabs, at least until
Omicron came along. But it does the job.
What purpose would it serve? And how would that be justified to HMRC and the Treasury who would have to spend even more billions on support packages and lost taxes.
That boat has sailed. Forget the 99 Rebel Loons we should be eternally grateful to, there's no way that's getting past Sunak.
The less likely to send an individual to hospital is the absolute key
There’s some very good research from a few months ago showing the net effect of seasonal factors on transmission as well as morbidity. Quite a clear correlation including with basic air temperature. I’ll dig it out.
The other common feature seems to be greater seasonality in midlatitude climates than the tropics. Same as flu.
Whether it’s down to behaviour (greater indoor mixing), UV on surfaces (unlikely with COVs that seem not to spread much through fomites), humidity (some evidence) or human factors like vitamin D doesn’t seem to be clear yet. My money would be on the indoor/outdoor behaviour effect plus humidity.
The interconnections of a Persian sun god [as perceived by the Romans], Roman traditions and the Norse traditions all form a fascinating history of the festival we now know as Christmas and the traditions of food, merriment, drink and gifts etc that go with that have been celebrated now for well over two and a half thousand years.
Except for when the Puritans tried and failed to cancel it. So that brings cancel culture into the conversation too.
Its just amusing when people bemoan feasting and drinking and gift giving etc as not being "the true meaning" of the holiday.
They literally are "the true meaning" and have been for about two and a half thousand years at least, minus the puritan era.
When the Church adopted Saturnalia as the birth of Jesus, society kept all the Pagan festivities which have largely passed through to today, despite the best wishes of the Puritans to stamp them out.
Funny old world.
Though I stand with my Calvinist ancestors, tis naught but Popery.