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The LDs now clear betting favourite to gain North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited December 2021 in General
imageThe LDs now clear betting favourite to gain North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com

A week today the Tories will be defending the by-election – a seat they won with a majority of 40%+ over LAB at GE2019 when the LDs were in third place – 53% behind the Tories.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 101,821
    edited December 2021
    First like the Tories in this seat when they win it next week.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,258
    Think this makes 22 Tory MPs on the record saying they will vote against Plan B next week, with at least a dozen more expressing serious concerns https://twitter.com/DarrenG_Henry/status/1468964590251773961
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,868
    edited December 2021
    Second.

    Bugger.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,711
    One, three, two, that makes me fourth.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,047
    You can vote for the BBC's SPoTY world sport star award:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/sports-personality/59505132

    I voted for Tom Brady.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/special-bets/market/1.177196899

    I guess it makes sense that the person from the British Isles is favourite.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 99,160
    edited December 2021
    This is great news for Boris.

    Now the Tories are underdogs he can proclaim the likely narrow Tory hold thanks to 15% or so still voting Labour not LD as a triumph.

    It would be the first Tory by election hold over the LDs for 5 years, since Witney in 2016 and Boris would proclaim it as a great comeback against the odds after the past fortnight.

    LDs being far too cocky I think
  • tlg86 said:

    You can vote for the BBC's SPoTY world sport star award:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/sports-personality/59505132

    I voted for Tom Brady.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/special-bets/market/1.177196899

    I guess it makes sense that the person from the British Isles is favourite.

    Surely we are all going to vote Max Ver-Crash-en....
  • tlg86 said:

    You can vote for the BBC's SPoTY world sport star award:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/sports-personality/59505132

    I voted for Tom Brady.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/special-bets/market/1.177196899

    I guess it makes sense that the person from the British Isles is favourite.

    Is he best placed to defeat that antivaxxer **** Djokovic and the **** Verstappen?

    I need some help on the best way to vote tactically in this election.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Think this makes 22 Tory MPs on the record saying they will vote against Plan B next week, with at least a dozen more expressing serious concerns https://twitter.com/DarrenG_Henry/status/1468964590251773961

    And Labour will vote with Boris so the number of conservative desenters is irrelevant

    The irony of politics today is extraordinary when Boris is in touch with public opinion on this and a large part of his party are not
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,047

    tlg86 said:

    You can vote for the BBC's SPoTY world sport star award:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/sports-personality/59505132

    I voted for Tom Brady.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/special-bets/market/1.177196899

    I guess it makes sense that the person from the British Isles is favourite.

    Is he best placed to defeat that antivaxxer **** Djokovic and the **** Verstappen?

    I need some help on the best way to vote tactically in this election.
    Betfair would suggest it's a done deal for the Irish jockey. I don't think you have much to worry about.
  • HYUFD said:

    This is great news for Boris.

    Now the Tories are underdogs he can proclaim the likely narrow Tory hold thanks to 15% or so still voting Labour not LD as a triumph.

    It would be the first Tory by election hold over the LDs for 5 years, since Witney in 2016

    Yes, he's probably throwing another party right now to celebrate.
    Maybe for the birth of his daughter today
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,868

    rcs1000 said:

    Still too slow...

    414,645 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (407,851 the previous Wednesday)

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 340,615
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 39,327
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 20,314
    NI 14,389

    While it is too slow, it is worth noting that the UK has delivered booster shots to a third of the population (total) by now. That puts us second behind only Israel in the whole world. And the UK is still on a sharply rising path. On current trends, you'd expect it to pass Israel around Christmas.

    It's also worth noting that Europe is beginning to get a move on. A month ago just 4% of Germans had had a booster. Today it's almost 19%.

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-vaccine-booster-doses-per-capita?country=ISR~USA~FRA~ITA~GBR~DEU~BEL
    The most critical bit is getting the over 45s done....

    image
    Israel and Chile.

    :smile:

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-vaccine-booster-doses-per-capita?country=ISR~USA~FRA~ITA~GBR~DEU~BEL~CHL

    Homework, homework !

    I suspect Europe is later than us as they were 1-2 months behind last time.

    Perhaps they are limited by people reaching the 6 month point?


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 99,160

    Scott_xP said:

    Think this makes 22 Tory MPs on the record saying they will vote against Plan B next week, with at least a dozen more expressing serious concerns https://twitter.com/DarrenG_Henry/status/1468964590251773961

    And Labour will vote with Boris so the number of conservative desenters is irrelevant

    The irony of politics today is extraordinary when Boris is in touch with public opinion on this and a large part of his party are not
    Indeed, I expect 1/3 of Tory MPs to vote against the Plan B plans but it would get through with Labour votes.

    However that will be a shot across Boris' bows not to bring in a full Christmas lockdown or face a wholesale backbench revolt
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,868
    M. Macron making his speech:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNhh-OLzWlE
  • tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    You can vote for the BBC's SPoTY world sport star award:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/sports-personality/59505132

    I voted for Tom Brady.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/special-bets/market/1.177196899

    I guess it makes sense that the person from the British Isles is favourite.

    Is he best placed to defeat that antivaxxer **** Djokovic and the **** Verstappen?

    I need some help on the best way to vote tactically in this election.
    Betfair would suggest it's a done deal for the Irish jockey. I don't think you have much to worry about.
    Cheers.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 99,160
    MattW said:
    He needs to do something to regain ground on this now he trails Les Republicains candidate Pecresse for the first time in runoff polls
  • List of Tory voters that HYUFD wants to dispense with:

    Red wall first time Tories
    Poor people
    Voters who have voted for other parties in the past
    Old Women, especially Welsh ones
    Non-CofE congregants
    The Scotch

    Have I missed any other groups? Perhaps as a nod to the excellent bill proposing to remove citizenship from swarthy foreign-type non-Brits there should be an Electoral Reform bill to remove from traitors the right to vote if they don't pass the test. Only members of Conservative Associations and foreign-domiciled donors will be allowed a vote in the new democracy.
  • HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Think this makes 22 Tory MPs on the record saying they will vote against Plan B next week, with at least a dozen more expressing serious concerns https://twitter.com/DarrenG_Henry/status/1468964590251773961

    And Labour will vote with Boris so the number of conservative desenters is irrelevant

    The irony of politics today is extraordinary when Boris is in touch with public opinion on this and a large part of his party are not
    Indeed, I expect 1/3 of Tory MPs to vote against the Plan B plans but it would get through with Labour votes.

    However that will be a shot across Boris' bows not to bring in a full Christmas lockdown or face a wholesale backbench revolt
    I really do not see Boris going anywhere near a full Christmas lockdown, for all his many faults he is not Drakeford
  • HYUFD said:

    This is great news for Boris.

    Now the Tories are underdogs he can proclaim the likely narrow Tory hold thanks to 15% or so still voting Labour not LD as a triumph.

    It would be the first Tory by election hold over the LDs for 5 years, since Witney in 2016 and Boris would proclaim it as a great comeback against the odds after the past fortnight.

    LDs being far too cocky I think

    Surely both Sleaford and Old Bexley were Tory by-election holds over the Lib Dems (and everyone else)?

    Also, it isn't "cocky" to be betting favourites - supporters of all parties are allowed to, and do, place bets. Personally, I continue to think it is a very big ask for the LDs although the signs look quite good. I think the reaction over the past couple of days in the betting markets may be a slight over-reaction given how many votes will already have been cast by post.
  • Exchange of the day at today's lobby briefing on Plan B:

    "If I'm in a theatre watching a musical, can I take my mask off to sing?"

    No10: "Yes. There is a general exemption for singing"

    So could I walk into Tesco without a mask as long as I'm singing?

    No10: "Essentially, yes"

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1468926687287070735?t=E3R6VSQ9aZ_mF1UAWiUTtw&s=19

    Media back to their nonsense.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 99,160

    HYUFD said:

    This is great news for Boris.

    Now the Tories are underdogs he can proclaim the likely narrow Tory hold thanks to 15% or so still voting Labour not LD as a triumph.

    It would be the first Tory by election hold over the LDs for 5 years, since Witney in 2016 and Boris would proclaim it as a great comeback against the odds after the past fortnight.

    LDs being far too cocky I think

    Surely both Sleaford and Old Bexley were Tory by-election holds over the Lib Dems (and everyone else)?

    Also, it isn't "cocky" to be betting favourites - supporters of all parties are allowed to, and do, place bets. Personally, I continue to think it is a very big ask for the LDs although the signs look quite good. I think the reaction over the past couple of days in the betting markets may be a slight over-reaction given how many votes will already have been cast by post.
    No, Labour were a clear second before in Sleaford and Old Bexley and the main challengers, the LDs did not bother with much effort in either.

    In North Shropshire the LDs are throwing everyone but the kitchen sink at it!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,868
    MattW said:
    He's planning the Next 50 Years.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 99,160
    edited December 2021

    List of Tory voters that HYUFD wants to dispense with:

    Red wall first time Tories
    Poor people
    Voters who have voted for other parties in the past
    Old Women, especially Welsh ones
    Non-CofE congregants
    The Scotch

    Have I missed any other groups? Perhaps as a nod to the excellent bill proposing to remove citizenship from swarthy foreign-type non-Brits there should be an Electoral Reform bill to remove from traitors the right to vote if they don't pass the test. Only members of Conservative Associations and foreign-domiciled donors will be allowed a vote in the new democracy.

    It is a phrase which has been used for centuries in English, it is not specifically about old women as such
    https://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/old+woman#:~:text=An exceptionally fussy, timid, circumspect,anxious person, especially a woman.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 29,014
    You not hedging that now @MikeSmithson?

    As for me, better than evens on the Cons holding a seat with such a big margin just 2 years ago is very tempting but something is stopping me. Going to sit it out.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 18,515
    edited December 2021
    Compare and contrast:

    Lord Geidt: For the credibility of this inquiry, I have tested the assertions of Lord Brownlow and the relevant political and government officials that at no point in the eight months until late February 2021, as media reports were emerging, was the prime minister made aware of either the fact or the method of the costs of refurbishing the apartment having been paid.

    Electoral Commission: Lord Brownlow via WhatsApp asking him to authorise further, at that stage unspecified, refurbishment works on the residence. Lord Brownlow agreed to do so, and also explained that the proposed trust had not yet been set up but that he knew where the funding was coming from.

    So, we have a clear breach of Electoral Law. And at least one clear breach of the Ministerial Code. EDIT. Also that the Number 10 lie machine is trying on the defence of "Lord Brownlow was chair of the blind trust, and acted in accordance with his experience of managing blind trusts in that way. The prime minister’s discussions with Lord Brownlow were done without him knowing the underlying donor.". Except that as the Electoral Commission note, there was no blind trust at the time of the 29/11/20 WhatsApp message, and as it is asking for further money it is clear earlier messages had also been exchanged.

    As the Votemaster General notes above, "This is great news for Boris."
  • Exchange of the day at today's lobby briefing on Plan B:

    "If I'm in a theatre watching a musical, can I take my mask off to sing?"

    No10: "Yes. There is a general exemption for singing"

    So could I walk into Tesco without a mask as long as I'm singing?

    No10: "Essentially, yes"

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1468926687287070735?t=E3R6VSQ9aZ_mF1UAWiUTtw&s=19

    Media back to their nonsense.

    Why would you sing if you were watching a musical? That's the job of the people on stage, not in the audience.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 3,777
    edited December 2021
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is great news for Boris.

    Now the Tories are underdogs he can proclaim the likely narrow Tory hold thanks to 15% or so still voting Labour not LD as a triumph.

    It would be the first Tory by election hold over the LDs for 5 years, since Witney in 2016 and Boris would proclaim it as a great comeback against the odds after the past fortnight.

    LDs being far too cocky I think

    Surely both Sleaford and Old Bexley were Tory by-election holds over the Lib Dems (and everyone else)?

    Also, it isn't "cocky" to be betting favourites - supporters of all parties are allowed to, and do, place bets. Personally, I continue to think it is a very big ask for the LDs although the signs look quite good. I think the reaction over the past couple of days in the betting markets may be a slight over-reaction given how many votes will already have been cast by post.
    No, Labour were a clear second before in Sleaford and Old Bexley and the main challengers, the LDs did not bother with much effort in either.

    In North Shropshire the LDs are throwing everyone but the kitchen sink at it!
    That's wasn't your original claim, although I agree the LDs put little effort into them. It does rather reduce the impact of your "five years!" claim though. Basically, what you're saying is LDs have had three successive wins over the Tories in seats they've had a proper go at (two if you exclude Richmond Park on the basis there wasn't technically a Conservative candidate).

    Of those efforts, North Shropshire is EASILY the toughest ask. Both Richmond and Brecon had had Lib Dem MPs in the recent past, and Chesham was a Remain voting seat where the Lib Dems started in a clear (though poor) second.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,751

    Still too slow...

    414,645 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (407,851 the previous Wednesday)

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 340,615
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 39,327
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 20,314
    NI 14,389

    Just had my third jabberoo.

    AZ-AZ–Moderna is my regimen I am past caring don't know how good that is supposed to be overall
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,281
    edited December 2021

    List of Tory voters that HYUFD wants to dispense with:

    Red wall first time Tories
    Poor people
    Voters who have voted for other parties in the past
    Old Women, especially Welsh ones
    Non-CofE congregants
    The Scotch

    Have I missed any other groups? Perhaps as a nod to the excellent bill proposing to remove citizenship from swarthy foreign-type non-Brits there should be an Electoral Reform bill to remove from traitors the right to vote if they don't pass the test. Only members of Conservative Associations and foreign-domiciled donors will be allowed a vote in the new democracy.

    Even just voting twice for Blair in near 60 years of GEs and actively playing a role at all the other GEs for the party I have been ex-communicated !!!!!

    Do you know if the Borders bill has passed the HOC as I thought a vote was due this week ?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 21,046
    Point of order.
    The motion on Paterson wasn't defeated. It passed with 13 Tory votes against. It was the reaction and subsequent U-turn which led him to quit.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,452

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is great news for Boris.

    Now the Tories are underdogs he can proclaim the likely narrow Tory hold thanks to 15% or so still voting Labour not LD as a triumph.

    It would be the first Tory by election hold over the LDs for 5 years, since Witney in 2016 and Boris would proclaim it as a great comeback against the odds after the past fortnight.

    LDs being far too cocky I think

    Surely both Sleaford and Old Bexley were Tory by-election holds over the Lib Dems (and everyone else)?

    Also, it isn't "cocky" to be betting favourites - supporters of all parties are allowed to, and do, place bets. Personally, I continue to think it is a very big ask for the LDs although the signs look quite good. I think the reaction over the past couple of days in the betting markets may be a slight over-reaction given how many votes will already have been cast by post.
    No, Labour were a clear second before in Sleaford and Old Bexley and the main challengers, the LDs did not bother with much effort in either.

    In North Shropshire the LDs are throwing everyone but the kitchen sink at it!
    That's wasn't your original claim, although I agree the LDs put little effort into them. It does rather reduce the impact of your "five years!" claim though. Basically, what you're saying is LDs have had three successive wins over the Tories in seats they've had a proper go at (two if you exclude Richmond Park on the basis there wasn't technically a Conservative candidate).
    They also did pretty well in Witney, although they were still fifteen points behind.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 13,868

    Still too slow...

    414,645 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (407,851 the previous Wednesday)

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 340,615
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 39,327
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 20,314
    NI 14,389

    Just had my third jabberoo.

    AZ-AZ–Moderna is my regimen I am past caring don't know how good that is supposed to be overall
    We'll ask in a month, and see if an answer happens ...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,135
    edited December 2021
    The chart is rather strange as it adds up to over 101% while omitting Labour's candidate. I concede that he's unlikely to win, but he certainly has a better chance than the RefUK lady.
  • Still too slow...

    414,645 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (407,851 the previous Wednesday)

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 340,615
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 39,327
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 20,314
    NI 14,389

    Just had my third jabberoo.

    AZ-AZ–Moderna is my regimen I am past caring don't know how good that is supposed to be overall
    Snap on timing and sequence.
  • HYUFD said:

    This is great news for Boris.

    Now the Tories are underdogs he can proclaim the likely narrow Tory hold thanks to 15% or so still voting Labour not LD as a triumph.

    It would be the first Tory by election hold over the LDs for 5 years, since Witney in 2016 and Boris would proclaim it as a great comeback against the odds after the past fortnight.

    LDs being far too cocky I think

    "This is great news for Boris"

    Lol

    You are Muhammad Saeed al-Sahhaf and I claim my £5!
  • HYUFD said:

    List of Tory voters that HYUFD wants to dispense with:

    Red wall first time Tories
    Poor people
    Voters who have voted for other parties in the past
    Old Women, especially Welsh ones
    Non-CofE congregants
    The Scotch

    Have I missed any other groups? Perhaps as a nod to the excellent bill proposing to remove citizenship from swarthy foreign-type non-Brits there should be an Electoral Reform bill to remove from traitors the right to vote if they don't pass the test. Only members of Conservative Associations and foreign-domiciled donors will be allowed a vote in the new democracy.

    It is a phrase which has been used for centuries in English, it is not specifically about old women as such
    https://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/old+woman#:~:text=An exceptionally fussy, timid, circumspect,anxious person, especially a woman.
    Indeed. Used for centuries. Like this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZY0SdiNzfw
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 21,046

    Exchange of the day at today's lobby briefing on Plan B:

    "If I'm in a theatre watching a musical, can I take my mask off to sing?"

    No10: "Yes. There is a general exemption for singing"

    So could I walk into Tesco without a mask as long as I'm singing?

    No10: "Essentially, yes"

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1468926687287070735?t=E3R6VSQ9aZ_mF1UAWiUTtw&s=19

    Media back to their nonsense.

    Why would you sing if you were watching a musical? That's the job of the people on stage, not in the audience.
    Though it is, or was, a feature of Panto.
    Which is the nearest your average folk get to the theatre in a year. For a musical or not.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 71,291
    edited December 2021
    I love the absolute the hypocrisy of the media, concerned somebody might go into Tesco without a mask, but last night they had a massive piss up at their journalist awards ceremony, with zero masks or social distancing. But they all will be there with the threatre of masks at the press conference with the government today.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 3,777
    edited December 2021

    The chart is rather strange as it adds up to over 101% while omitting Labour's candidate. I concede that he's unlikely to win, but he certainly has a better chance than the RefUK lady.

    He doesn't have a better chance than the RefUK candidate - he has exactly the same chance, that being zero. Only two parties have any chance whatsoever in this one - betting on anything else is throwing the money away and only a fool would touch it.

    You're right the chart must be wrong though - can't be 101% (actually nearer 102%) as not a rounding thing.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,751


    John Burn-Murdoch
    @jburnmurdoch
    ·
    3h
    1) Good to see this now being acknowledged and communicated by WHO
    2) It doesn't mean "Omicron is milder". It means immunity (via both vax and infection) is kicking in Flexed biceps
    Quote Tweet

    Clare Wilson
    @ClareWilsonMed
    · 4h
    WHO says there are preliminary signs omicron is milder as hospitalisations in South Africa remain low.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,452
    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Still too slow...

    414,645 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (407,851 the previous Wednesday)

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 340,615
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 39,327
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 20,314
    NI 14,389

    While it is too slow, it is worth noting that the UK has delivered booster shots to a third of the population (total) by now. That puts us second behind only Israel in the whole world. And the UK is still on a sharply rising path. On current trends, you'd expect it to pass Israel around Christmas.

    It's also worth noting that Europe is beginning to get a move on. A month ago just 4% of Germans had had a booster. Today it's almost 19%.

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-vaccine-booster-doses-per-capita?country=ISR~USA~FRA~ITA~GBR~DEU~BEL
    The most critical bit is getting the over 45s done....

    image
    Israel and Chile.

    :smile:

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-vaccine-booster-doses-per-capita?country=ISR~USA~FRA~ITA~GBR~DEU~BEL~CHL

    Homework, homework !

    I suspect Europe is later than us as they were 1-2 months behind last time.

    Perhaps they are limited by people reaching the 6 month point?


    The Europe numbers are better than I'd expected: a month ago they'd done virtually none. Now, most of them are moving at c. 3% of the population a week. If they'd started a little earlier, they'd be really motoring.

    That being said, we are very lucky in the UK that we did AZ first (for most people). Mix and match is simply better.

    (There was a - small - study in the US published this week that showed boosting Pfizer with J&J resulted in a much longer lived immune response.)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 34,896
    Supposedly jabbing capacity will rise ~50% during next week, let's see if it actually happens.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 29,014

    Still too slow...

    414,645 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (407,851 the previous Wednesday)

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 340,615
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 39,327
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 20,314
    NI 14,389

    Just had my third jabberoo.

    AZ-AZ–Moderna is my regimen I am past caring don't know how good that is supposed to be overall
    It's an absolutely terrific combo, that.
  • Exchange of the day at today's lobby briefing on Plan B:

    "If I'm in a theatre watching a musical, can I take my mask off to sing?"

    No10: "Yes. There is a general exemption for singing"

    So could I walk into Tesco without a mask as long as I'm singing?

    No10: "Essentially, yes"

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1468926687287070735?t=E3R6VSQ9aZ_mF1UAWiUTtw&s=19

    Media back to their nonsense.

    They never left !!!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 27,352

    I love the absolute the hypocrisy of the media, concerned somebody might go into Tesco without a mask, but last night they had a massive piss up at their journalist awards ceremony, with zero masks or social distancing.

    Restrictions are awesome. For other people.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 45,452

    Still too slow...

    414,645 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (407,851 the previous Wednesday)

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 340,615
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 39,327
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 20,314
    NI 14,389

    Just had my third jabberoo.

    AZ-AZ–Moderna is my regimen I am past caring don't know how good that is supposed to be overall
    That - I suspect - is the absolutely best regime to get.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,751

    I love the absolute the hypocrisy of the media, concerned somebody might go into Tesco without a mask, but last night they had a massive piss up at their journalist awards ceremony, with zero masks or social distancing. But they all will be there with the threatre of masks at the press conference with the government.

    The regulations allow massive piss ups without masks, they do not allow masklessness in Tesco.
  • Still too slow...

    414,645 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (407,851 the previous Wednesday)

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 340,615
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 39,327
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 20,314
    NI 14,389

    Just had my third jabberoo.

    AZ-AZ–Moderna is my regimen I am past caring don't know how good that is supposed to be overall
    Snap on timing and sequence.
    About half the people there were u40 walk ins. Slowing everything down for those with an appointment but must be boosting the booster numbers.
  • pingping Posts: 2,211
    edited December 2021

    I love the absolute the hypocrisy of the media, concerned somebody might go into Tesco without a mask, but last night they had a massive piss up at their journalist awards ceremony, with zero masks or social distancing. But they all will be there with the threatre of masks at the press conference with the government.

    The Covid hypocrisy is everywhere. Journalists, public, politicians. Probably PBers, too.

    Everyone just loves telling everyone else what to do.

    The whole thing is a charade.
  • @HenryJFoy
    Scandal - the EU likes to brag it has donated more Covid vaccines than any other state... but it has only delivered 124m of the 353m it claims to have donated, far fewer than the US, for example, has shipped to poorer countries
    https://www.ft.com/content/d0b53ea4-5eef-4bc7-814c-a69b0dfa1c06
  • eekeek Posts: 19,277

    The chart is rather strange as it adds up to over 101% while omitting Labour's candidate. I concede that he's unlikely to win, but he certainly has a better chance than the RefUK lady.

    He doesn't have a better chance than the RefUK candidate - he has exactly the same chance, that being zero. Only two parties have any chance whatsoever in this one - betting on anything else is throwing the money away and only a fool would touch it.

    You're right the chart must be wrong though - can't be 101% (actually nearer 102%) as not a rounding thing.
    It comes from Betfair where there will usually be an overround (else a bot is going to come in and grab the free money).
  • If Conservatives lose the seat at the by-election, how will that compare with other "safe" seats lost by governing parties?
  • The chart is rather strange as it adds up to over 101% while omitting Labour's candidate. I concede that he's unlikely to win, but he certainly has a better chance than the RefUK lady.

    How do you think bookies make their profit? It is called the "over-round".
  • List of Tory voters that HYUFD wants to dispense with:

    Red wall first time Tories
    Poor people
    Voters who have voted for other parties in the past
    Old Women, especially Welsh ones
    Non-CofE congregants
    The Scotch

    Have I missed any other groups? Perhaps as a nod to the excellent bill proposing to remove citizenship from swarthy foreign-type non-Brits there should be an Electoral Reform bill to remove from traitors the right to vote if they don't pass the test. Only members of Conservative Associations and foreign-domiciled donors will be allowed a vote in the new democracy.

    Even just voting twice for Blair in near 60 years of GEs and actively playing a role at all the other GEs for the party I have been ex-communicated !!!!!

    Do you know if the Borders bill has passed the HOC as I thought a vote was due this week ?
    https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3023

    Passed the report state on Tuesday. Priti Vacant's attempt to make your brave son a criminal is still in the bill. And her proposal to strip citizenship from non-British forrin scum is still in the bill.

    Lets be fair, with *that* as a government, ex-communication isn't a bad thing.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,121
    edited December 2021

    HYUFD said:

    This is great news for Boris.

    Now the Tories are underdogs he can proclaim the likely narrow Tory hold thanks to 15% or so still voting Labour not LD as a triumph.

    It would be the first Tory by election hold over the LDs for 5 years, since Witney in 2016

    Yes, he's probably throwing another party right now to celebrate.
    Maybe for the birth of his daughter today
    Let's hope he doesn't need a further inquiry in order to remember it.
  • I love the absolute the hypocrisy of the media, concerned somebody might go into Tesco without a mask, but last night they had a massive piss up at their journalist awards ceremony, with zero masks or social distancing. But they all will be there with the threatre of masks at the press conference with the government.

    The regulations allow massive piss ups without masks, they do not allow masklessness in Tesco.
    Its the fact they are bringing up an absolutely ludicrous potential "loophole", clutching their pearls at the horror somebody might do such a thing and put everybody at risk....and they will all be there with their masks at the press conference nursing their hangovers from last night bash.
  • List of Tory voters that HYUFD wants to dispense with:

    Red wall first time Tories
    Poor people
    Voters who have voted for other parties in the past
    Old Women, especially Welsh ones
    Non-CofE congregants
    The Scotch

    Have I missed any other groups? Perhaps as a nod to the excellent bill proposing to remove citizenship from swarthy foreign-type non-Brits there should be an Electoral Reform bill to remove from traitors the right to vote if they don't pass the test. Only members of Conservative Associations and foreign-domiciled donors will be allowed a vote in the new democracy.

    Anyone with any sort of Libertarian (spits) inclinations.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 26,128
    edited December 2021
    FPT



    Of course people want as normal a life as possible. But most people are sensible enough to understand that it isn't always possible.

    You are also going down a very deep and dangerous rabbit hole. Yes, we get lots of road deaths each year. We also invest heavily to try to reduce that figure, including bringing in legislation and laws that restrict what we can do in our cars - such as the use of mobile phones.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reported_Road_Casualties_Great_Britain#/media/File:Killed_on_British_Roads.png

    It's also a terrible analogy. Five people a day die on our roads. 161 died of Covid yesterday alone. Well over an order of magnitude higher.

    Actually I think it might be a very good comparison if not analogy. Governments put a monetary value on people's lives. That value is not fixed but depends on what area of governance and risk you are talking about. So we find that the value of a statistical life for rail passengers (how much money the Government is willing to spend to save each life) is massively higher than the same value for car passengers. It has never been the case that the Government has a fixed value on human life. If it had been then either we would have had everyone in lockdown every winter (if the value had been high) or we would have made no safety improvements at all to our transport infrastructure (if the value had been too low).

    In the context of Covid it is for society as a whole to decide what is an acceptable number of deaths for given levels of authoritarian regulation. We do it for Flu and set the bar very high. My personal view is we should have a similarly high bar for Covid. Sadly at the moment both the authoritarian political classes and much of the population seem to agree that it should be much lower. How long that will last when they find all their pubs and shops have disappeared and they are out of a job is another matter.

  • I love the absolute the hypocrisy of the media, concerned somebody might go into Tesco without a mask, but last night they had a massive piss up at their journalist awards ceremony, with zero masks or social distancing.

    Restrictions are awesome. For other people.
    "the poor are dying from Covid"

    "Let them wear masks"
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,877
    MattW said:

    Still too slow...

    414,645 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (407,851 the previous Wednesday)

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 340,615
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 39,327
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 20,314
    NI 14,389

    Just had my third jabberoo.

    AZ-AZ–Moderna is my regimen I am past caring don't know how good that is supposed to be overall
    We'll ask in a month, and see if an answer happens ...
    I had all 3 pfizer
  • I had 3 moderna.... looks like it is shit against O-Mike-Ron....woophie.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 34,773

    I love the absolute the hypocrisy of the media, concerned somebody might go into Tesco without a mask, but last night they had a massive piss up at their journalist awards ceremony, with zero masks or social distancing. But they all will be there with the threatre of masks at the press conference with the government.

    The regulations allow massive piss ups without masks, they do not allow masklessness in Tesco.
    Its the fact they are bringing up an absolutely ludicrous potential "loophole", clutching their pearls at the horror somebody might do such a thing and put everybody at risk....and they will all be there with their masks at the press conference nursing their hangovers from last night bash.
    "Clutching their pearls"

    Written by you.

    Irony eats itself.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 6,700
    HYUFD said:

    This is great news for Boris.

    Now the Tories are underdogs he can proclaim the likely narrow Tory hold thanks to 15% or so still voting Labour not LD as a triumph.

    It would be the first Tory by election hold over the LDs for 5 years, since Witney in 2016 and Boris would proclaim it as a great comeback against the odds after the past fortnight.

    LDs being far too cocky I think

    Eh? The graph is of punters not LDs.
  • malcolmg said:

    MattW said:

    Still too slow...

    414,645 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (407,851 the previous Wednesday)

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 340,615
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 39,327
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 20,314
    NI 14,389

    Just had my third jabberoo.

    AZ-AZ–Moderna is my regimen I am past caring don't know how good that is supposed to be overall
    We'll ask in a month, and see if an answer happens ...
    I had all 3 pfizer
    I was Pfizer x2 then Moderna. But complicated slightly by actually having the virus in between jabs 2 & 3 - which I would like to dream might confer even more immunity.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,232

    The chart is rather strange as it adds up to over 101% while omitting Labour's candidate. I concede that he's unlikely to win, but he certainly has a better chance than the RefUK lady.

    I THINK it's intended to demonstrate that the Tory candidate is slipping, and defections to Reform have little to do with it.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,377
    rcs1000 said:

    Still too slow...

    414,645 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (407,851 the previous Wednesday)

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 340,615
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 39,327
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 20,314
    NI 14,389

    Just had my third jabberoo.

    AZ-AZ–Moderna is my regimen I am past caring don't know how good that is supposed to be overall
    That - I suspect - is the absolutely best regime to get.
    Even with the Moderna being a half dose? (admittedly bringing in to line with all fizzer doses)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,121
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is great news for Boris.

    Now the Tories are underdogs he can proclaim the likely narrow Tory hold thanks to 15% or so still voting Labour not LD as a triumph.

    It would be the first Tory by election hold over the LDs for 5 years, since Witney in 2016 and Boris would proclaim it as a great comeback against the odds after the past fortnight.

    LDs being far too cocky I think

    Eh? The graph is of punters not LDs.
    The letters from renowned betting experts have clearly now arrived
  • ping said:

    I love the absolute the hypocrisy of the media, concerned somebody might go into Tesco without a mask, but last night they had a massive piss up at their journalist awards ceremony, with zero masks or social distancing. But they all will be there with the threatre of masks at the press conference with the government.

    The Covid hypocrisy is everywhere. Journalists, public, politicians. Probably PBers, too.

    Everyone just loves telling everyone else what to do.

    The whole thing is a charade.
    I think posts like that are unhelpful. You should post more constructively.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 99,160
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is great news for Boris.

    Now the Tories are underdogs he can proclaim the likely narrow Tory hold thanks to 15% or so still voting Labour not LD as a triumph.

    It would be the first Tory by election hold over the LDs for 5 years, since Witney in 2016 and Boris would proclaim it as a great comeback against the odds after the past fortnight.

    LDs being far too cocky I think

    Eh? The graph is of punters not LDs.
    It is their cockyness driving the betting markets, they would have been far better staying as underdogs so even a close second would look great for them.

    Now the LDs are favourites even a narrow Tory hold with a slashed majority is an early Christmas present for Boris
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,121

    malcolmg said:

    MattW said:

    Still too slow...

    414,645 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (407,851 the previous Wednesday)

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 340,615
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 39,327
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 20,314
    NI 14,389

    Just had my third jabberoo.

    AZ-AZ–Moderna is my regimen I am past caring don't know how good that is supposed to be overall
    We'll ask in a month, and see if an answer happens ...
    I had all 3 pfizer
    I was Pfizer x2 then Moderna. But complicated slightly by actually having the virus in between jabs 2 & 3 - which I would like to dream might confer even more immunity.
    Significantly so, I believe
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 70,290

    malcolmg said:

    MattW said:

    Still too slow...

    414,645 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (407,851 the previous Wednesday)

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 340,615
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 39,327
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 20,314
    NI 14,389

    Just had my third jabberoo.

    AZ-AZ–Moderna is my regimen I am past caring don't know how good that is supposed to be overall
    We'll ask in a month, and see if an answer happens ...
    I had all 3 pfizer
    I was Pfizer x2 then Moderna. But complicated slightly by actually having the virus in between jabs 2 & 3 - which I would like to dream might confer even more immunity.
    It will. Neutralising sera of prior infection + Pfi-Pfi-Mod will be very effacious.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,752

    malcolmg said:

    MattW said:

    Still too slow...

    414,645 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (407,851 the previous Wednesday)

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 340,615
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 39,327
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 20,314
    NI 14,389

    Just had my third jabberoo.

    AZ-AZ–Moderna is my regimen I am past caring don't know how good that is supposed to be overall
    We'll ask in a month, and see if an answer happens ...
    I had all 3 pfizer
    I was Pfizer x2 then Moderna. But complicated slightly by actually having the virus in between jabs 2 & 3 - which I would like to dream might confer even more immunity.
    Very likely to be real, not a dream.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,752
    maaarsh said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Still too slow...

    414,645 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (407,851 the previous Wednesday)

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 340,615
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 39,327
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 20,314
    NI 14,389

    Just had my third jabberoo.

    AZ-AZ–Moderna is my regimen I am past caring don't know how good that is supposed to be overall
    That - I suspect - is the absolutely best regime to get.
    Even with the Moderna being a half dose? (admittedly bringing in to line with all fizzer doses)
    Yes.
    Even halving the dosage of Pfizer doesn't seem to make much difference from the POV of boosters.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,752

    First like the Tories in this seat when they win it next week.

    Only if there are barrowloads of postal votes, I suspect.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 70,290
    One interesting thing is that everyone who works closely (Well till we're WFH) with me is in their early 40s to mid 50s and we're all pretty much/in the very near future boosted. There's a definite sense of people who are able and willing to get ahead of the curve; but the booster program is obviously not down to the average person in their 40s yet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 99,160

    HYUFD said:

    List of Tory voters that HYUFD wants to dispense with:

    Red wall first time Tories
    Poor people
    Voters who have voted for other parties in the past
    Old Women, especially Welsh ones
    Non-CofE congregants
    The Scotch

    Have I missed any other groups? Perhaps as a nod to the excellent bill proposing to remove citizenship from swarthy foreign-type non-Brits there should be an Electoral Reform bill to remove from traitors the right to vote if they don't pass the test. Only members of Conservative Associations and foreign-domiciled donors will be allowed a vote in the new democracy.

    It is a phrase which has been used for centuries in English, it is not specifically about old women as such
    https://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/old+woman#:~:text=An exceptionally fussy, timid, circumspect,anxious person, especially a woman.
    Indeed. Used for centuries. Like this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZY0SdiNzfw
    Not the same but soon there won't be any phrases you can use left as they will all have been removed by the PC thought police like you
  • If Conservatives lose the seat at the by-election, how will that compare with other "safe" seats lost by governing parties?

    Depends on the majority really. Any majority at all would immediately catapult it just above Orpington and into the top 13 swings in UK by-elections. One of those wasn't a gain (Birmingham Hodge Hill - LDs just short of gain), one was against an opposition party (Bradford West) and three were holds by the sitting MP who resigned (Rochester & Strood and Clacton for defectors to UKIP, and Lincoln for Dick Taverne for Democratic Labour/prototype SDP).

    The Birmingham Hodge Hill one is interesting. I wonder if HYUFD classes that as a great Labour win on the same basis he is ramping Shropshire for Johnson? Of course, Blair did go on to win the General Election the following year, albeit on a much reduced majority and vote.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 29,014
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is great news for Boris.

    Now the Tories are underdogs he can proclaim the likely narrow Tory hold thanks to 15% or so still voting Labour not LD as a triumph.

    It would be the first Tory by election hold over the LDs for 5 years, since Witney in 2016

    Yes, he's probably throwing another party right now to celebrate.
    Maybe for the birth of his daughter today
    Let's hope he doesn't need a further inquiry in order to remember it.
    We need Case on the case. Nothing in this world, great or small, can be known until the cabinet secretary has investigated and reported back.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 6,700
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is great news for Boris.

    Now the Tories are underdogs he can proclaim the likely narrow Tory hold thanks to 15% or so still voting Labour not LD as a triumph.

    It would be the first Tory by election hold over the LDs for 5 years, since Witney in 2016 and Boris would proclaim it as a great comeback against the odds after the past fortnight.

    LDs being far too cocky I think

    Eh? The graph is of punters not LDs.
    It is their cockyness driving the betting markets, they would have been far better staying as underdogs so even a close second would look great for them.

    Now the LDs are favourites even a narrow Tory hold with a slashed majority is an early Christmas present for Boris
    How on earth can you know that?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 29,844

    FPT



    Of course people want as normal a life as possible. But most people are sensible enough to understand that it isn't always possible.

    You are also going down a very deep and dangerous rabbit hole. Yes, we get lots of road deaths each year. We also invest heavily to try to reduce that figure, including bringing in legislation and laws that restrict what we can do in our cars - such as the use of mobile phones.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reported_Road_Casualties_Great_Britain#/media/File:Killed_on_British_Roads.png

    It's also a terrible analogy. Five people a day die on our roads. 161 died of Covid yesterday alone. Well over an order of magnitude higher.

    Actually I think it might be a very good comparison if not analogy. Governments put a monetary value on people's lives. That value is not fixed but depends on what area of governance and risk you are talking about. So we find that the value of a statistical life for rail passengers (how much money the Government is willing to spend to save each life) is massively higher than the same value for car passengers. It has never been the case that the Government has a fixed value on human life. If it had been then either we would have had everyone in lockdown every winter (if the value had been high) or we would have made no safety improvements at all to our transport infrastructure (if the value had been too low).

    In the context of Covid it is for society as a whole to decide what is an acceptable number of deaths for given levels of authoritarian regulation. We do it for Flu and set the bar very high. My personal view is we should have a similarly high bar for Covid. Sadly at the moment both the authoritarian political classes and much of the population seem to agree that it should be much lower. How long that will last when they find all their pubs and shops have disappeared and they are out of a job is another matter.
    I understand what you mean, but the issue is that Covid was an unknown quantity. The number of rail and road deaths is pretty constant at a certain level, with variation. Flu deaths are also a known quantity, with wider variations.

    We could not say that for Covid when it started, and we can not say it for Omicron - although I am hopeful.

    We can decide that an 'acceptable' number of deaths is, but we have no way of ensuring that Covid will happily say: "Oh, I've killed enough. I'll stop now." It is all too easy to reach the agreed level, and find out a week later you've doubled it and it is out of control.

    We have more information on the earlier variants, including amongst vaccinated and unvaccinated populations, so we could - perhaps - do so for that. But now there's Omicron.

    Road and rail accidents also do not have exponential growth (aside from very low figures), and it is much easier to lose control of a pandemic than it is a safety case.

    Finally, there's the issue of the tyranny of the majority. It is not a random subset of the population being affected, but very specific groups. That makes me very uneasy.
  • FPT



    Of course people want as normal a life as possible. But most people are sensible enough to understand that it isn't always possible.

    You are also going down a very deep and dangerous rabbit hole. Yes, we get lots of road deaths each year. We also invest heavily to try to reduce that figure, including bringing in legislation and laws that restrict what we can do in our cars - such as the use of mobile phones.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reported_Road_Casualties_Great_Britain#/media/File:Killed_on_British_Roads.png

    It's also a terrible analogy. Five people a day die on our roads. 161 died of Covid yesterday alone. Well over an order of magnitude higher.

    Actually I think it might be a very good comparison if not analogy. Governments put a monetary value on people's lives. That value is not fixed but depends on what area of governance and risk you are talking about. So we find that the value of a statistical life for rail passengers (how much money the Government is willing to spend to save each life) is massively higher than the same value for car passengers. It has never been the case that the Government has a fixed value on human life. If it had been then either we would have had everyone in lockdown every winter (if the value had been high) or we would have made no safety improvements at all to our transport infrastructure (if the value had been too low).

    In the context of Covid it is for society as a whole to decide what is an acceptable number of deaths for given levels of authoritarian regulation. We do it for Flu and set the bar very high. My personal view is we should have a similarly high bar for Covid. Sadly at the moment both the authoritarian political classes and much of the population seem to agree that it should be much lower. How long that will last when they find all their pubs and shops have disappeared and they are out of a job is another matter.

    It is a difficult balance to strike. In healthcare, the study of such matters is known as Health Economics. Unsurprisingly it is a somewhat dry subject, but it is essentially what NICE and other healthcare bodies use to determine whether a drug or device is to be reimbursed. It also considers QALYs (quality adjusted life year) to determine whether an individual has a quality of life improvement associated with the intervention, thereby justifying it.

    A similar calculation is probably done by government to attempt to calculate the benefits of intervention v non intervention. That said, we are talking of the government of Boris Johnson, so probably not.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 99,160

    If Conservatives lose the seat at the by-election, how will that compare with other "safe" seats lost by governing parties?

    Depends on the majority really. Any majority at all would immediately catapult it just above Orpington and into the top 13 swings in UK by-elections. One of those wasn't a gain (Birmingham Hodge Hill - LDs just short of gain), one was against an opposition party (Bradford West) and three were holds by the sitting MP who resigned (Rochester & Strood and Clacton for defectors to UKIP, and Lincoln for Dick Taverne for Democratic Labour/prototype SDP).

    The Birmingham Hodge Hill one is interesting. I wonder if HYUFD classes that as a great Labour win on the same basis he is ramping Shropshire for Johnson? Of course, Blair did go on to win the General Election the following year, albeit on a much reduced majority and vote.
    Hodge Hill was a boost for Labour at a time of by election losses to the LDs post Iraq, no doubt
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,377
    Cases down week on week. Consistent with analysis of the specimen date returns which semed to suggest the current rise was coming to an end. Alternatively, dead cat restrictions working their magic already!
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 2,209
    edited December 2021
    50,867

    Recent mini-rise looks to have stopped. Looks like a milder week weather wise next week too...

    Might get a bit of a decrease before the Omicron wave really gets going.

  • I think the LibDems have played a blinder of a campaign in N.Shropshire. There's a logic in asserting themselves as the home for moderate Tories who've supported Paterson for decades but think "all of this" is beyond the pale. But it's a bit of a jump from that assertion and 10pc last time to "Winning Here" two years later. If they pull it off, they've done execptionally well.

    While the odds reflect the success of that, I think it just as likely that most Lab voters outside the bubble won't get (or agree with) the tactical voting campaign, the 'left' vote remains split, and the Tories (also relying on habitual votes outside the bubble) get home with a reduced 40pc of a reduced turnout.

    (PS: on the graph, the Reform candidate should be *Kirsty* Walmsley - Rebecca's her middle name. Her performance will be interesting too.. previous Tory councillor herself, mum's still a Tory councillor, dad used to lead the county council but is now her campaign manager. You can imagine a section of Oswestry Tory society seeing that as a decent punt for a protest vote.)
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 13,751
    TOPPING said:

    I love the absolute the hypocrisy of the media, concerned somebody might go into Tesco without a mask, but last night they had a massive piss up at their journalist awards ceremony, with zero masks or social distancing. But they all will be there with the threatre of masks at the press conference with the government.

    The regulations allow massive piss ups without masks, they do not allow masklessness in Tesco.
    Its the fact they are bringing up an absolutely ludicrous potential "loophole", clutching their pearls at the horror somebody might do such a thing and put everybody at risk....and they will all be there with their masks at the press conference nursing their hangovers from last night bash.
    "Clutching their pearls"

    Written by you.

    Irony eats itself.
    Ha! There's some truth in that – Francis is Pearl-clutcher General at times :)
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,158
    edited December 2021
    Oof - wasn't expecting this: new infections 50,867. DOWN on same day last week (53,945).

    Do will still have to WFH prior to driving into the office for the Christmas Party?
  • I'm still not convinced that the markets have got this right on N Shropshire, given that:

    - A lot of postal votes were probably cast before the lastest farrago of scandals, own-goals and in-fighting
    - It won't be obvious whether Labour or the LibDems are the better place for an anti-Boris vote
    - If you're disgruntled, haven't put in a postal vote, but would have voted Tory, you'll probably stay at home rather than come out to vote LD or Lab.

    So I still think the Tories are value at the current odds. I may be totally wrong, of course!

    Do we know when the postal votes were sent out?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,158

    50,867

    Recent mini-rise looks to have stopped. Looks like a milder week weather wise next week too...

    Might get a bit of a decrease before the Omicron wave really gets going.

    Or - alternatively - the vaccines are working.
  • Nigelb said:

    First like the Tories in this seat when they win it next week.

    Only if there are barrowloads of postal votes, I suspect.
    I suspect Labour and the Lib Dem split will end up handing the seat to the Tories by default.
  • Fingers crossed over the case numbers.
  • TOPPING said:

    I love the absolute the hypocrisy of the media, concerned somebody might go into Tesco without a mask, but last night they had a massive piss up at their journalist awards ceremony, with zero masks or social distancing. But they all will be there with the threatre of masks at the press conference with the government.

    The regulations allow massive piss ups without masks, they do not allow masklessness in Tesco.
    Its the fact they are bringing up an absolutely ludicrous potential "loophole", clutching their pearls at the horror somebody might do such a thing and put everybody at risk....and they will all be there with their masks at the press conference nursing their hangovers from last night bash.
    "Clutching their pearls"

    Written by you.

    Irony eats itself.
    Ha! There's some truth in that – Francis is Pearl-clutcher General at times :)
    How very dare you...said clutching my pearls.
  • HYUFD said:

    If Conservatives lose the seat at the by-election, how will that compare with other "safe" seats lost by governing parties?

    Depends on the majority really. Any majority at all would immediately catapult it just above Orpington and into the top 13 swings in UK by-elections. One of those wasn't a gain (Birmingham Hodge Hill - LDs just short of gain), one was against an opposition party (Bradford West) and three were holds by the sitting MP who resigned (Rochester & Strood and Clacton for defectors to UKIP, and Lincoln for Dick Taverne for Democratic Labour/prototype SDP).

    The Birmingham Hodge Hill one is interesting. I wonder if HYUFD classes that as a great Labour win on the same basis he is ramping Shropshire for Johnson? Of course, Blair did go on to win the General Election the following year, albeit on a much reduced majority and vote.
    Hodge Hill was a boost for Labour at a time of by election losses to the LDs post Iraq, no doubt
    I don't think that's quite right. It could have been worse - clearly - but it was a bigger swing than either Brent East or Leicester South, and the headlines following it were pretty bleak. Hartlepool, later that year, was a bit better for them although less of an obvious anti-Iraq War seat than any of the earlier ones.
  • HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is great news for Boris.

    Now the Tories are underdogs he can proclaim the likely narrow Tory hold thanks to 15% or so still voting Labour not LD as a triumph.

    It would be the first Tory by election hold over the LDs for 5 years, since Witney in 2016 and Boris would proclaim it as a great comeback against the odds after the past fortnight.

    LDs being far too cocky I think

    Eh? The graph is of punters not LDs.
    It is their cockyness driving the betting markets, they would have been far better staying as underdogs so even a close second would look great for them.

    Now the LDs are favourites even a narrow Tory hold with a slashed majority is an early Christmas present for Boris
    If that was an early Christmas present for "Boris" then it shows how shit he is. It is a little like a child pretending that Father Christmas bringing them a piece of coal is something to rejoice about.
  • Nigelb said:

    First like the Tories in this seat when they win it next week.

    Only if there are barrowloads of postal votes, I suspect.
    I suspect Labour and the Lib Dem split will end up handing the seat to the Tories by default.
    Oh I don't know. If the Tories are doing as badly as the media would like us to believe, a split vote between the Lib Dems and Labour could see the Tories come third...
  • I'm still not convinced that the markets have got this right on N Shropshire, given that:

    - A lot of postal votes were probably cast before the lastest farrago of scandals, own-goals and in-fighting
    - It won't be obvious whether Labour or the LibDems are the better place for an anti-Boris vote
    - If you're disgruntled, haven't put in a postal vote, but would have voted Tory, you'll probably stay at home rather than come out to vote LD or Lab.

    So I still think the Tories are value at the current odds. I may be totally wrong, of course!

    Do we know when the postal votes were sent out?
    Some time ago, I believe. See here, for example (25th Nov):

    https://www.libdemvoice.org/postal-votes-shout-out-if-you-are-helping-in-north-shropshire-this-weekend-69180.html
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,158
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is great news for Boris.

    Now the Tories are underdogs he can proclaim the likely narrow Tory hold thanks to 15% or so still voting Labour not LD as a triumph.

    It would be the first Tory by election hold over the LDs for 5 years, since Witney in 2016 and Boris would proclaim it as a great comeback against the odds after the past fortnight.

    LDs being far too cocky I think

    Eh? The graph is of punters not LDs.
    It is their cockyness driving the betting markets, they would have been far better staying as underdogs so even a close second would look great for them.

    Now the LDs are favourites even a narrow Tory hold with a slashed majority is an early Christmas present for Boris
    Honestly though - what are you hearing? What is your best guess at the result?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,752

    FPT



    Of course people want as normal a life as possible. But most people are sensible enough to understand that it isn't always possible.

    You are also going down a very deep and dangerous rabbit hole. Yes, we get lots of road deaths each year. We also invest heavily to try to reduce that figure, including bringing in legislation and laws that restrict what we can do in our cars - such as the use of mobile phones.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reported_Road_Casualties_Great_Britain#/media/File:Killed_on_British_Roads.png

    It's also a terrible analogy. Five people a day die on our roads. 161 died of Covid yesterday alone. Well over an order of magnitude higher.

    Actually I think it might be a very good comparison if not analogy. Governments put a monetary value on people's lives. That value is not fixed but depends on what area of governance and risk you are talking about. So we find that the value of a statistical life for rail passengers (how much money the Government is willing to spend to save each life) is massively higher than the same value for car passengers. It has never been the case that the Government has a fixed value on human life. If it had been then either we would have had everyone in lockdown every winter (if the value had been high) or we would have made no safety improvements at all to our transport infrastructure (if the value had been too low).

    In the context of Covid it is for society as a whole to decide what is an acceptable number of deaths for given levels of authoritarian regulation. We do it for Flu and set the bar very high. My personal view is we should have a similarly high bar for Covid. Sadly at the moment both the authoritarian political classes and much of the population seem to agree that it should be much lower. How long that will last when they find all their pubs and shops have disappeared and they are out of a job is another matter.

    It is a difficult balance to strike. In healthcare, the study of such matters is known as Health Economics. Unsurprisingly it is a somewhat dry subject, but it is essentially what NICE and other healthcare bodies use to determine whether a drug or device is to be reimbursed. It also considers QALYs (quality adjusted life year) to determine whether an individual has a quality of life improvement associated with the intervention, thereby justifying it.

    A similar calculation is probably done by government to attempt to calculate the benefits of intervention v non intervention. That said, we are talking of the government of Boris Johnson, so probably not.
    Could be worse.
    https://www.codastory.com/waronscience/doctor-in-disguise-russia-coronavirus/
    ...Sergey Samborsky, a welder by profession, went undercover as a doctor in a Siberian hospital for three days in late October. He did what the medical staff at the hospital would not do: care for his 84-year-old grandmother and other mistreated patients in an overcrowded coronavirus ward. He documented his hospital visits with his phone and when he made the shocking footage public, he felt the Russian state media machine turn on him.

    Now known across Russia as the “Grandson from Tomsk,” Samborsky, 27, had gone to Moscow to knock on the doors of federal authorities to file complaints of gross medical negligence. When it became clear that instead of considering his complaints, authorities intended to arrest him, Samborsky fled to neighboring Georgia....
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