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The LDs now clear betting favourite to gain North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,000

    eek said:

    Can Boris actually be enjoying his job? My impression has for some time been that he’s clinging on for dear life for covid to pass so he can steer us all into the sunlit uplands and go back to jaunty buffoonery whilst everyone laughs and calls him a card.

    I struggle to see what motivates him now (beyond the pursuit of personal popularity which is well known). Brown and May had torrid times in office, but they were kept going at least in part by a sense of duty.

    That very lack of a strong moral compass has lead him to the precipice now. He has for some time been known to take a hands off approach to management, allowing underlings to do what they will. Fine if you’re surrounded by competent, managerial types. Less so when you’re surrounded by opportunists and chancers.

    Being Boris he probably wants to leave office on a high note, but is there any chance of that now?

    TSE claimed last week that Boris basically has dates he wishes to pass for various reasons (August 2022 to pass May, sometime in 2026 to pass Cameron).

    It's the bit I don't get, you've done Brexit, we've gone through Covid surely Boris would want to leave on high (any level of high) and earn real money.
    Ego.

    He's had a rivalry with Dave going back decades.

    Dave got a first, Boris did not.

    (It'd be August/September 2025 to overtake Dave.)

    Ultimately, his entire life has been about becoming PM, he doesn't want it to be fleeting. One person who knows him well says the reason he won't give Scotland indyref2 on his watch? If Scotland votes Yes, then that, not Brexit will be the first line of Boris Johnson's obituary, and his ego won't allow him to sit out indyref2, in the way Dave let the Scots get on with it in indyref2.
    So, England’s stuck with an incompetent buffoon as PM cos Johnson’s worried about his obituary?
    Not to mention the Scots.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,180

    IshmaelZ said:

    Roger said:

    As I understand it Shropshire is culturally and geographically miles from the Red Wall Brexiteer thickos so there has to be at least a possibility Johnson's lot will come third

    Very rural, humongously Leave

    I was at prep school there. It is the setting for Blandings Castle in PG Wodehouse and you can see why

    https://www.shropshirestar.com/news/politics/2016/06/24/eu-referendum-result-shropshire-votes-leave/
    The towns nearest Blandings Castle are Bridgnorth, Shifnal and Albrighton (see Pig-hoo-o-o-o-ey!)

    So, it is either in the constituency of Ludlow or The Wrekin.

    But, do tell us more about your prep school days? Were you repeatedly beaten for your mistakes?
    Too clever to make any. The headmaster was a noted sadist but tended to leave the scholarship hopefuls and sporting stars alone.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,149
    Anecdote: Our office Christmas party (that I'm not attending) is still going ahead on Friday.

    Hopefully our team drinks in Manchester on Tuesday will still be going ahead. We might have the rare spectacle of a Yorkshireman and a Scot both buying a round of drinks.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 2,745

    Nigelb said:

    I don’t understand “Plan B” at all.

    The dampening measures (WFH) won’t make much difference, given Omicron infectiousness.

    The vaxport measures are so limited that I can’t see them incentivising a single anti-vaxxer into getting vaccinated.

    Are we Plan B-ing to:
    a) buy time for more boosters?
    b) squash demand on the NHS?
    c) both?

    And whether a, b, or c - what are the relevant predicted metrics that we are trying to achieve?

    It is too easy to call out “dead cat”, but it does appear Boris rushed ahead with yesterday’s announcement to the surprise of colleagues, and he clearly hasn’t taken the parliamentary party with him.

    The only case I can make for it is that the announcement of government measures like this prompts people inclined to be cautious to be more so. But I have no idea how great that effect might be.
    The vaxports - particularly in view of the end Jan sunset clause - seem a bureaucratic waste of time.
    Also, did they get rid of that compulsory isolation upon contact with an Omicrone?

    Because if not; the country will be paralysis come the New Year.
    Yes, they have at least got rid of that. Daily testing now for close contacts (although no idea how they will trace close contacts – the dreaded QR codes haven't been revived)
    They'll expect members of the same household to lock themselves away, one assumes (which could yet play havoc with the schools again in the New Year - IF the kids aren't all back to remote learning by that point,) and someone from test & trace might ring up to ask you who else you know you've had contact with recently. Although there's nothing to stop people from lying, of course.

    Essentially, as with the mask theatre and vaxports (in limited places only, can be circumvented by unverifiable LFTs,) the domestic stuff, WFH excepted, looks mostly like something-must-be-done-ism. All intended by ministers to demonstrate that they are taking the thing seriously, whilst in practice achieving pretty much nothing. Save for scaring the shit out of the more nervous segment of the populace and torpedoing consumer confidence, of course.

    Whether this all means that they're letting businesses have the festive season with the full intention of putting everyone under house arrest at the start of January, or they're just playing for time and hoping the Omicronpanic turns out to be a damp squib, who can say?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,961

    The lies and scandals are so numerous right now, that some are going by without mention.

    For example, Paul Dacre literally admits in the Spectator this week that Boris *did* try to rig the Ofcom job for him.

    Something we all knew of course, but which Dowden insisted was not true.

    It appears, according to a brief note I've seen from Mark Francois' 'book' that he beat BJ for the Rayleigh & Wickford seat.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,149
    Scott_xP said:

    Exclusive: Michael Gove is self-isolating after the Aussie Deputy PM got Covid. They met on Monday.

    Means THREE Cabinet ministers are now self-isolating: Gove, Raab, Shapps. Details in here:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/09/boris-johnson-news-plan-b-downing-street-christmas-party/

    I presume that the Gover is, er, self-medicating to get through it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,945
    Nigelb said:

    I don’t understand “Plan B” at all.

    The dampening measures (WFH) won’t make much difference, given Omicron infectiousness.

    The vaxport measures are so limited that I can’t see them incentivising a single anti-vaxxer into getting vaccinated.

    Are we Plan B-ing to:
    a) buy time for more boosters?
    b) squash demand on the NHS?
    c) both?

    And whether a, b, or c - what are the relevant predicted metrics that we are trying to achieve?

    It is too easy to call out “dead cat”, but it does appear Boris rushed ahead with yesterday’s announcement to the surprise of colleagues, and he clearly hasn’t taken the parliamentary party with him.

    The only case I can make for it is that the announcement of government measures like this prompts people inclined to be cautious to be more so. But I have no idea how great that effect might be.
    The vaxports - particularly in view of the end Jan sunset clause - seem a bureaucratic waste of time.
    image
    image
    image
    image

    According to most measures, R is a bit above 1. So it wouldn't take much to get it back below 1, at the moment.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,633
    rcs1000 said:

    Endillion said:

    Even if the Lib Dems win, it proves nothing. Johnson's Conservative party has been utterly discredited, and the Lib Dems have always been heavy favourites for this seat.

    Have the LDs "always" been heavy favourites?
    No; this is a reference to discussions earlier today on the subject of Ken Livingstone in 2008.

    Free Philip Thompson! With every A-Level Economics textbook!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,323
    I predict:

    The Tories will hold N Shropshire because:
    - Postal votes already in
    - Too big mountain to climb
    - Brexit
    - Too many people not that engaged with the political machinations

    That will boost Johnson, who stays on despite the politerati declaring him toast after the past week.

    Two more years drip, drip, drip of misstep, scandal, u-turn, and incompetence.

    Which all leads to a resounding Tory defeat in GE24, never mind the swings required, never mind the BC changes.

    The only way for the Tories to avoid defeat in 2024 is to ditch Johnson now. But they won't.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,457
    Endillion said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Endillion said:

    Even if the Lib Dems win, it proves nothing. Johnson's Conservative party has been utterly discredited, and the Lib Dems have always been heavy favourites for this seat.

    Have the LDs "always" been heavy favourites?
    No; this is a reference to discussions earlier today on the subject of Ken Livingstone in 2008.

    Free Philip Thompson! With every A-Level Economics textbook!
    What's happened to Philip Thompson?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,521

    Stocky said:

    I don’t understand “Plan B” at all.

    The dampening measures (WFH) won’t make much difference, given Omicron infectiousness.

    The vaxport measures are so limited that I can’t see them incentivising a single anti-vaxxer into getting vaccinated.

    Are we Plan B-ing to:
    a) buy time for more boosters?
    b) squash demand on the NHS?
    c) both?

    And whether a, b, or c - what are the relevant predicted metrics that we are trying to achieve?

    It is too easy to call out “dead cat”, but it does appear Boris rushed ahead with yesterday’s announcement to the surprise of colleagues, and he clearly hasn’t taken the parliamentary party with him.

    Notice how they were justifying the figures with stats from South Africa (a country with vaccination rates in the 20s). The UK stats don't justify it. I sensed that this is Johnson more than Whitty and Vallance.
    Personally I suspect *something* is justified.

    (I haven’t resiled from my prediction made over a week ago that Omicron is milder, but I worry about the load on the NHS just because of sheer numbers).

    But this ain’t it. We’re I a Tory or Lib Dem MP, I would not vote for this.
    I'm particularly pissed off about 'vaccine passports', not just because the logic isn't there for them to be a net benefit but because they were (per me) a Not Happening Event. When I designate something as NHE I don't do it lightly. It truly means it won't be happening. However this one seems to have happened and it's ruined my erstwhile unblemished record in this area. All I can do is argue it's not really a case of vaccine passports because there's an alternative of proving a recent negative test - how does one do that btw? - but this is clutching at straws.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 15,267
    Endillion said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Endillion said:

    Even if the Lib Dems win, it proves nothing. Johnson's Conservative party has been utterly discredited, and the Lib Dems have always been heavy favourites for this seat.

    Have the LDs "always" been heavy favourites?
    No; this is a reference to discussions earlier today on the subject of Ken Livingstone in 2008.

    Free Philip Thompson! With every A-Level Economics textbook!
    Judging by his posts, he is not familiar even with A-Level Economics, despite claiming to work as an Economist.
  • The lies and scandals are so numerous right now, that some are going by without mention.

    For example, Paul Dacre literally admits in the Spectator this week that Boris *did* try to rig the Ofcom job for him.

    Something we all knew of course, but which Dowden insisted was not true.

    The Dacre article was very good. Particularly liked the quotes from Kate Bingham.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,938
    IshmaelZ said:

    Roger said:

    As I understand it Shropshire is culturally and geographically miles from the Red Wall Brexiteer thickos so there has to be at least a possibility Johnson's lot will come third

    Very rural, humongously Leave

    I was at prep school there. It is the setting for Blandings Castle in PG Wodehouse and you can see why

    https://www.shropshirestar.com/news/politics/2016/06/24/eu-referendum-result-shropshire-votes-leave/
    I was enjoying it until I got to Johnson walking with what looked like his daughter. Which school? There wee a lot of Prep schools along the Welsh border.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,521
    Carnyx said:

    An interesting example for Mr Johnson et al:

    "As the row has engulfed the Prime Minister and his advisers, Westminster magistrates court has been quietly prosecuting people who broke the rules last Christmas, including those caught meeting on December 18 – the day of the alleged Downing Street party."

    "Prosecutions - under the government’s Health Protection regulations - have been conducted since September last year in London through the Single Justice Procedure, dealt with in behind-closed-doors hearings by a magistrate."

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/covid19-rules-downing-street-party-westminster-magistrates-court-police-b970925.html

    Here's Owen on the matter. He's pretty good at this imo -
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1468862149351116806
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,149
    Public Health Scotland: Cancel your parties!!!
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 15,267

    I predict:

    The Tories will hold N Shropshire because:
    - Postal votes already in
    - Too big mountain to climb
    - Brexit
    - Too many people not that engaged with the political machinations

    That will boost Johnson, who stays on despite the politerati declaring him toast after the past week.

    Two more years drip, drip, drip of misstep, scandal, u-turn, and incompetence.

    Which all leads to a resounding Tory defeat in GE24, never mind the swings required, never mind the BC changes.

    The only way for the Tories to avoid defeat in 2024 is to ditch Johnson now. But they won't.

    I now believe this is the most likely outcome.
    This week was an inflection moment.
  • ClippP said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Roger said:

    As I understand it Shropshire is culturally and geographically miles from the Red Wall Brexiteer thickos so there has to be at least a possibility Johnson's lot will come third

    North Shropshire is almost next door to Newcastle-under-Lyme, one of the archetypal Red Wall seats. It's also adjacent to Wrexham.
    Adjacent, but Wrexham (town) especially is a million miles off. That said, the LDs had better hope everyone's on the same page about Brexit being done and dusted.

    I think this is a new sub-section of Tory seat to waver - Brexity Shire Tory since forever.
    I am unconvinced that Brexit is relevant any longer. It is decided. What matters now is the How and the How we end up. Johnson's Tories are onto a loser on both these counts.

    Combined with that is the traditional Conservative feeling of fair play and decency. So a better label for this kind of sear is Traditional Decent Conservative seat. And I think there are quite a lot of them around.
    I hope you are right. The majority of Tory MPs may not yet be willing to face up to the fact that there is nothing decent about Johnson but I hope the voters know better.
  • I predict:

    The Tories will hold N Shropshire because:
    - Postal votes already in
    - Too big mountain to climb
    - Brexit
    - Too many people not that engaged with the political machinations

    That will boost Johnson, who stays on despite the politerati declaring him toast after the past week.

    Two more years drip, drip, drip of misstep, scandal, u-turn, and incompetence.

    Which all leads to a resounding Tory defeat in GE24, never mind the swings required, never mind the BC changes.

    The only way for the Tories to avoid defeat in 2024 is to ditch Johnson now. But they won't.

    Wish I could be as confident as you are, I can see if the clown is still in charge, a concerted attempt to portray him as some sort of hero, who has made mistakes but has learnt from them, by his powerful friends in the media, and then SKS doesnt eat a bacon sandwich properly, and hey ho there us another election win for tories
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,521

    I predict:

    The Tories will hold N Shropshire because:
    - Postal votes already in
    - Too big mountain to climb
    - Brexit
    - Too many people not that engaged with the political machinations

    That will boost Johnson, who stays on despite the politerati declaring him toast after the past week.

    Two more years drip, drip, drip of misstep, scandal, u-turn, and incompetence.

    Which all leads to a resounding Tory defeat in GE24, never mind the swings required, never mind the BC changes.

    The only way for the Tories to avoid defeat in 2024 is to ditch Johnson now. But they won't.

    If it becomes clear he's leading them to defeat they'll ditch him, though, won't they?

    Most Tory MPs knew he'd be a dreadful PM. His USP was vote winner.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    ...
    BigRich said:

    Endillion said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Endillion said:

    Even if the Lib Dems win, it proves nothing. Johnson's Conservative party has been utterly discredited, and the Lib Dems have always been heavy favourites for this seat.

    Have the LDs "always" been heavy favourites?
    No; this is a reference to discussions earlier today on the subject of Ken Livingstone in 2008.

    Free Philip Thompson! With every A-Level Economics textbook!
    What's happened to Philip Thompson?
    Do we get banned for talking about it @TheScreamingEagles @MikeSmithson @rcs1000 ???
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,180
    Roger said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Roger said:

    As I understand it Shropshire is culturally and geographically miles from the Red Wall Brexiteer thickos so there has to be at least a possibility Johnson's lot will come third

    Very rural, humongously Leave

    I was at prep school there. It is the setting for Blandings Castle in PG Wodehouse and you can see why

    https://www.shropshirestar.com/news/politics/2016/06/24/eu-referendum-result-shropshire-votes-leave/
    I was enjoying it until I got to Johnson walking with what looked like his daughter. Which school? There wee a lot of Prep schools along the Welsh border.
    Packwood in Ruyton XI Towns
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,084
    edited December 2021

    Andy_JS said:

    Roger said:

    As I understand it Shropshire is culturally and geographically miles from the Red Wall Brexiteer thickos so there has to be at least a possibility Johnson's lot will come third

    North Shropshire is almost next door to Newcastle-under-Lyme, one of the archetypal Red Wall seats. It's also adjacent to Wrexham.
    When changing career paths, I did secondary school teaching practice on a PGCE in Market Drayton a couple of decades back, commuting over from home in the West Midlands. Many children lived on farms ("what use is Pythagoras to milking a cow, Sir?") and for those who didn't have farming parents, the dominant local employer was the factory turning milk into Muller yoghurts etc. where many ended up.

    And that's the part of the constituency closest to Stoke and the Black Country.

    Not a Red Wall seat. The place is basically a farming constituency. Geographical proximity isn't really relevant.
    It changed a bit since then. Muller is still a big employer, farming is still significant, but also a lot of new build housing has gone up in last 10 years and which acts as a bit of a commutor town for Telford.

    The town centre has been particularly badly effected by the move to online, it is a bit of a disaster these days with local mom and pop shops having closed down. Very akin to very deprived areas.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,036
    mickydroy said:

    I predict:

    The Tories will hold N Shropshire because:
    - Postal votes already in
    - Too big mountain to climb
    - Brexit
    - Too many people not that engaged with the political machinations

    That will boost Johnson, who stays on despite the politerati declaring him toast after the past week.

    Two more years drip, drip, drip of misstep, scandal, u-turn, and incompetence.

    Which all leads to a resounding Tory defeat in GE24, never mind the swings required, never mind the BC changes.

    The only way for the Tories to avoid defeat in 2024 is to ditch Johnson now. But they won't.

    Wish I could be as confident as you are, I can see if the clown is still in charge, a concerted attempt to portray him as some sort of hero, who has made mistakes but has learnt from them, by his powerful friends in the media, and then SKS doesnt eat a bacon sandwich properly, and hey ho there us another election win for tories
    No risk of that last bit. SKS is a vegetarian.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 15,267
    kinabalu said:

    I predict:

    The Tories will hold N Shropshire because:
    - Postal votes already in
    - Too big mountain to climb
    - Brexit
    - Too many people not that engaged with the political machinations

    That will boost Johnson, who stays on despite the politerati declaring him toast after the past week.

    Two more years drip, drip, drip of misstep, scandal, u-turn, and incompetence.

    Which all leads to a resounding Tory defeat in GE24, never mind the swings required, never mind the BC changes.

    The only way for the Tories to avoid defeat in 2024 is to ditch Johnson now. But they won't.

    If it becomes clear he's leading them to defeat they'll ditch him, though, won't they?

    Most Tory MPs knew he'd be a dreadful PM. His USP was vote winner.
    Tory MPs aren’t as regicidal as popularly believed. It’s also not obvious who could revive Tory fortunes.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,323
    Haha, I expect this is a very old one but I'd not seen it before:

    image
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,938
    Andy_JS said:

    Roger said:

    As I understand it Shropshire is culturally and geographically miles from the Red Wall Brexiteer thickos so there has to be at least a possibility Johnson's lot will come third

    North Shropshire is almost next door to Newcastle-under-Lyme, one of the archetypal Red Wall seats. It's also adjacent to Wrexham. Telford is very close as well.
    I did the definitive poster of the Telford Iron Bridge. They're still using it. It was an ad for the new town. The only thing I remember of the trip was our client saying he'd had a complaint from 'Susan Small of Shifnal Staffs' which is what I always think of when I hear 'Telford'
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,945
    isam said:

    ...

    BigRich said:

    Endillion said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Endillion said:

    Even if the Lib Dems win, it proves nothing. Johnson's Conservative party has been utterly discredited, and the Lib Dems have always been heavy favourites for this seat.

    Have the LDs "always" been heavy favourites?
    No; this is a reference to discussions earlier today on the subject of Ken Livingstone in 2008.

    Free Philip Thompson! With every A-Level Economics textbook!
    What's happened to Philip Thompson?
    Do we get banned for talking about it @TheScreamingEagles @MikeSmithson @rcs1000 ???
    There was no Philip Thompson. Just as there is no Australia

    image
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 2,745

    Public Health Scotland: Cancel your parties!!!

    The exact word used was "defer," it seems, but in practice they certainly mean cancel. The Omicronpanic isn't going to be finished any time soon and nobody is going to be reorganising Christmas parties in July.

    Exactly what percentage of the Scottish hospitality sector is going to survive beyond the next few weeks now depends on exactly what percentage of the general population follows this advice.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,323
    edited December 2021
    kinabalu said:

    I predict:

    The Tories will hold N Shropshire because:
    - Postal votes already in
    - Too big mountain to climb
    - Brexit
    - Too many people not that engaged with the political machinations

    That will boost Johnson, who stays on despite the politerati declaring him toast after the past week.

    Two more years drip, drip, drip of misstep, scandal, u-turn, and incompetence.

    Which all leads to a resounding Tory defeat in GE24, never mind the swings required, never mind the BC changes.

    The only way for the Tories to avoid defeat in 2024 is to ditch Johnson now. But they won't.

    If it becomes clear he's leading them to defeat they'll ditch him, though, won't they?

    Most Tory MPs knew he'd be a dreadful PM. His USP was vote winner.
    They might, but too late. The point is, once it "becomes clear [to Tory MPs that] he's leading them to defeat" they ain't escaping that defeat.

    Btw I suspect it will lead to a Labour-led coalition not a Labour majority, Scotland makes the latter too high a mountain for Labour to climb.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,103

    I predict:

    The Tories will hold N Shropshire because:
    - Postal votes already in
    - Too big mountain to climb
    - Brexit
    - Too many people not that engaged with the political machinations

    That will boost Johnson, who stays on despite the politerati declaring him toast after the past week.

    Two more years drip, drip, drip of misstep, scandal, u-turn, and incompetence.

    Which all leads to a resounding Tory defeat in GE24, never mind the swings required, never mind the BC changes.

    The only way for the Tories to avoid defeat in 2024 is to ditch Johnson now. But they won't.

    I completely disagree Johnson can reach voters other Tories can't

    I fully expect him to win the next GE if Tory bedwetters haven't defenestrated him
  • It is far too simplistic and cynical to believe that all, or even a majority of Tory MPs think about re-election to the exclusion of all else. Boris is now demonstrably unfit to be PM in a multi-dimensional way and they must know he has to go. The problem for the parliamentary Tory party is how and when to topple him and obviously political considerations and factionalism will affect that - but they know they can't delay too long. He may of course make the decision soon himself.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    edited December 2021

    mickydroy said:

    I predict:

    The Tories will hold N Shropshire because:
    - Postal votes already in
    - Too big mountain to climb
    - Brexit
    - Too many people not that engaged with the political machinations

    That will boost Johnson, who stays on despite the politerati declaring him toast after the past week.

    Two more years drip, drip, drip of misstep, scandal, u-turn, and incompetence.

    Which all leads to a resounding Tory defeat in GE24, never mind the swings required, never mind the BC changes.

    The only way for the Tories to avoid defeat in 2024 is to ditch Johnson now. But they won't.

    Wish I could be as confident as you are, I can see if the clown is still in charge, a concerted attempt to portray him as some sort of hero, who has made mistakes but has learnt from them, by his powerful friends in the media, and then SKS doesnt eat a bacon sandwich properly, and hey ho there us another election win for tories
    No risk of that last bit. SKS is a vegetarian.
    ...who eats fish
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,036
    isam said:

    mickydroy said:

    I predict:

    The Tories will hold N Shropshire because:
    - Postal votes already in
    - Too big mountain to climb
    - Brexit
    - Too many people not that engaged with the political machinations

    That will boost Johnson, who stays on despite the politerati declaring him toast after the past week.

    Two more years drip, drip, drip of misstep, scandal, u-turn, and incompetence.

    Which all leads to a resounding Tory defeat in GE24, never mind the swings required, never mind the BC changes.

    The only way for the Tories to avoid defeat in 2024 is to ditch Johnson now. But they won't.

    Wish I could be as confident as you are, I can see if the clown is still in charge, a concerted attempt to portray him as some sort of hero, who has made mistakes but has learnt from them, by his powerful friends in the media, and then SKS doesnt eat a bacon sandwich properly, and hey ho there us another election win for tories
    No risk of that last bit. SKS is a vegetarian.
    ...who eats fish
    ... but the comment was about a bacon sandwich. Bacon is not fish.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638

    isam said:

    mickydroy said:

    I predict:

    The Tories will hold N Shropshire because:
    - Postal votes already in
    - Too big mountain to climb
    - Brexit
    - Too many people not that engaged with the political machinations

    That will boost Johnson, who stays on despite the politerati declaring him toast after the past week.

    Two more years drip, drip, drip of misstep, scandal, u-turn, and incompetence.

    Which all leads to a resounding Tory defeat in GE24, never mind the swings required, never mind the BC changes.

    The only way for the Tories to avoid defeat in 2024 is to ditch Johnson now. But they won't.

    Wish I could be as confident as you are, I can see if the clown is still in charge, a concerted attempt to portray him as some sort of hero, who has made mistakes but has learnt from them, by his powerful friends in the media, and then SKS doesnt eat a bacon sandwich properly, and hey ho there us another election win for tories
    No risk of that last bit. SKS is a vegetarian.
    ...who eats fish
    ... but the comment was about a bacon sandwich. Bacon is not fish.
    and Sir Keir is not a vegetarian
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,521
    BigRich said:

    Endillion said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Endillion said:

    Even if the Lib Dems win, it proves nothing. Johnson's Conservative party has been utterly discredited, and the Lib Dems have always been heavy favourites for this seat.

    Have the LDs "always" been heavy favourites?
    No; this is a reference to discussions earlier today on the subject of Ken Livingstone in 2008.

    Free Philip Thompson! With every A-Level Economics textbook!
    What's happened to Philip Thompson?
    What I heard is that he's triggered article 16 and regained his sovereignty. Exciting times for him and perhaps for us all.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,000

    isam said:

    mickydroy said:

    I predict:

    The Tories will hold N Shropshire because:
    - Postal votes already in
    - Too big mountain to climb
    - Brexit
    - Too many people not that engaged with the political machinations

    That will boost Johnson, who stays on despite the politerati declaring him toast after the past week.

    Two more years drip, drip, drip of misstep, scandal, u-turn, and incompetence.

    Which all leads to a resounding Tory defeat in GE24, never mind the swings required, never mind the BC changes.

    The only way for the Tories to avoid defeat in 2024 is to ditch Johnson now. But they won't.

    Wish I could be as confident as you are, I can see if the clown is still in charge, a concerted attempt to portray him as some sort of hero, who has made mistakes but has learnt from them, by his powerful friends in the media, and then SKS doesnt eat a bacon sandwich properly, and hey ho there us another election win for tories
    No risk of that last bit. SKS is a vegetarian.
    ...who eats fish
    ... but the comment was about a bacon sandwich. Bacon is not fish.
    It's entirely possible to have vegetarian bacon. I wouldn't put it past some Tory to try and feed him a sandwich.

    https://thevegankind.com/p/finnebrogue-naked-without-the-oink-unsmoked-bacon-rashers-12-pack-180g?utm_medium=cpc&utm_source=googleshopping&variant=39375540912222&gclid=EAIaIQobChMIufm03KPX9AIV1u3tCh3-nwP3EAQYAiABEgImq_D_BwE
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,431
    BigRich said:

    Endillion said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Endillion said:

    Even if the Lib Dems win, it proves nothing. Johnson's Conservative party has been utterly discredited, and the Lib Dems have always been heavy favourites for this seat.

    Have the LDs "always" been heavy favourites?
    No; this is a reference to discussions earlier today on the subject of Ken Livingstone in 2008.

    Free Philip Thompson! With every A-Level Economics textbook!
    What's happened to Philip Thompson?
    Been binned by OHG.

    Cast aside, shunned, sent to Coventry.

    Tail between the legs type stuff.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,147
    Just heard on an online module I'm doing on Prevent:

    Sign of being radicalised: 'Using multiple online identities and being secretive.'

    Does that mean SeanT, The Last Boy Scout, Foxy, Lost Password and I are all ISIL sleeper agents?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,521

    kinabalu said:

    I predict:

    The Tories will hold N Shropshire because:
    - Postal votes already in
    - Too big mountain to climb
    - Brexit
    - Too many people not that engaged with the political machinations

    That will boost Johnson, who stays on despite the politerati declaring him toast after the past week.

    Two more years drip, drip, drip of misstep, scandal, u-turn, and incompetence.

    Which all leads to a resounding Tory defeat in GE24, never mind the swings required, never mind the BC changes.

    The only way for the Tories to avoid defeat in 2024 is to ditch Johnson now. But they won't.

    If it becomes clear he's leading them to defeat they'll ditch him, though, won't they?

    Most Tory MPs knew he'd be a dreadful PM. His USP was vote winner.
    Tory MPs aren’t as regicidal as popularly believed. It’s also not obvious who could revive Tory fortunes.
    Yes, I meant if the Cons look like losing under him and there's an alternative leader polling miles better. If there isn't ... GREAT. :smile:
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,323
    kinabalu said:

    BigRich said:

    Endillion said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Endillion said:

    Even if the Lib Dems win, it proves nothing. Johnson's Conservative party has been utterly discredited, and the Lib Dems have always been heavy favourites for this seat.

    Have the LDs "always" been heavy favourites?
    No; this is a reference to discussions earlier today on the subject of Ken Livingstone in 2008.

    Free Philip Thompson! With every A-Level Economics textbook!
    What's happened to Philip Thompson?
    What I heard is that he's triggered article 16 and regained his sovereignty. Exciting times for him and perhaps for us all.
    Although his freedom of movement to post seems to have been removed. Never saw that one coming.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,633
    kinabalu said:

    BigRich said:

    Endillion said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Endillion said:

    Even if the Lib Dems win, it proves nothing. Johnson's Conservative party has been utterly discredited, and the Lib Dems have always been heavy favourites for this seat.

    Have the LDs "always" been heavy favourites?
    No; this is a reference to discussions earlier today on the subject of Ken Livingstone in 2008.

    Free Philip Thompson! With every A-Level Economics textbook!
    What's happened to Philip Thompson?
    What I heard is that he's triggered article 16 and regained his sovereignty. Exciting times for him and perhaps for us all.
    I think you mean "triggered by Article 16".
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,000
    ydoethur said:

    Just heard on an online module I'm doing on Prevent:

    Sign of being radicalised: 'Using multiple online identities and being secretive.'

    Does that mean SeanT, The Last Boy Scout, Foxy, Lost Password and I are all ISIL sleeper agents?

    'multiple' is the operative word, surely?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,180
    ydoethur said:

    Just heard on an online module I'm doing on Prevent:

    Sign of being radicalised: 'Using multiple online identities and being secretive.'

    Does that mean SeanT, The Last Boy Scout, Foxy, Lost Password and I are all ISIL sleeper agents?

    Ah, the old Purloined Letter gambit. Don't think we aren't watching you.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,103
    I bought the Daily Mail today (as all good PB Tories should)

    Their opinion header was

    "If voters think it's one rule for them and another for Boris, thats the fastest route to the calamity of Starmer in Downing St."

    Apparently they believe SKS would be a Socialist wrecker.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,707
    edited December 2021
    Not withstanding my Boris must and will go post, is there any chance that he would get some sympathy and deflect criticism if Carrie was seen to be behind both the parties and wall paper gate and he is seen as just a bit of a weak male?
  • ydoethur said:

    Just heard on an online module I'm doing on Prevent:

    Sign of being radicalised: 'Using multiple online identities and being secretive.'

    Does that mean SeanT, The Last Boy Scout, Foxy, Lost Password and I are all ISIL sleeper agents?

    I did something like that a couple of years ago.

    Apparently Muslims that become extremists are usually ones that are in fact bad Muslims who then have an epiphany then become devout then fundamentalists.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 14,309
    ydoethur said:

    Just heard on an online module I'm doing on Prevent:

    Sign of being radicalised: 'Using multiple online identities and being secretive.'

    Does that mean SeanT, The Last Boy Scout, Foxy, Lost Password and I are all ISIL sleeper agents?

    I had almost forgotten about The Last Boy Scout – rude of me. He was, and remains, one of the greatest PB posters of all time.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,521

    isam said:

    mickydroy said:

    I predict:

    The Tories will hold N Shropshire because:
    - Postal votes already in
    - Too big mountain to climb
    - Brexit
    - Too many people not that engaged with the political machinations

    That will boost Johnson, who stays on despite the politerati declaring him toast after the past week.

    Two more years drip, drip, drip of misstep, scandal, u-turn, and incompetence.

    Which all leads to a resounding Tory defeat in GE24, never mind the swings required, never mind the BC changes.

    The only way for the Tories to avoid defeat in 2024 is to ditch Johnson now. But they won't.

    Wish I could be as confident as you are, I can see if the clown is still in charge, a concerted attempt to portray him as some sort of hero, who has made mistakes but has learnt from them, by his powerful friends in the media, and then SKS doesnt eat a bacon sandwich properly, and hey ho there us another election win for tories
    No risk of that last bit. SKS is a vegetarian.
    ...who eats fish
    ... but the comment was about a bacon sandwich. Bacon is not fish.
    I wouldn't argue with isam about 'sir keir'. He knows every last detail. Diet, schooling, alcohol intake, driving style, where he gets his socks, favourite colour boxers, the ruddy lot.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,323

    I predict:

    The Tories will hold N Shropshire because:
    - Postal votes already in
    - Too big mountain to climb
    - Brexit
    - Too many people not that engaged with the political machinations

    That will boost Johnson, who stays on despite the politerati declaring him toast after the past week.

    Two more years drip, drip, drip of misstep, scandal, u-turn, and incompetence.

    Which all leads to a resounding Tory defeat in GE24, never mind the swings required, never mind the BC changes.

    The only way for the Tories to avoid defeat in 2024 is to ditch Johnson now. But they won't.

    I completely disagree Johnson can reach voters other Tories can't

    I fully expect him to win the next GE if Tory bedwetters haven't defenestrated him
    I appreciate he can count on your vote. God alone knows why.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 14,309

    mickydroy said:

    I predict:

    The Tories will hold N Shropshire because:
    - Postal votes already in
    - Too big mountain to climb
    - Brexit
    - Too many people not that engaged with the political machinations

    That will boost Johnson, who stays on despite the politerati declaring him toast after the past week.

    Two more years drip, drip, drip of misstep, scandal, u-turn, and incompetence.

    Which all leads to a resounding Tory defeat in GE24, never mind the swings required, never mind the BC changes.

    The only way for the Tories to avoid defeat in 2024 is to ditch Johnson now. But they won't.

    Wish I could be as confident as you are, I can see if the clown is still in charge, a concerted attempt to portray him as some sort of hero, who has made mistakes but has learnt from them, by his powerful friends in the media, and then SKS doesnt eat a bacon sandwich properly, and hey ho there us another election win for tories
    No risk of that last bit. SKS is a vegetarian.
    Pescatarian AIUI.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,323
    edited December 2021

    ydoethur said:

    Just heard on an online module I'm doing on Prevent:

    Sign of being radicalised: 'Using multiple online identities and being secretive.'

    Does that mean SeanT, The Last Boy Scout, Foxy, Lost Password and I are all ISIL sleeper agents?

    I did something like that a couple of years ago.

    Apparently Muslims that become extremists are usually ones that are in fact bad Muslims who then have an epiphany then become devout then fundamentalists.
    Just as well you're a good working class Muslim boy then TSE!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 34,335
    ydoethur said:

    Just heard on an online module I'm doing on Prevent:

    Sign of being radicalised: 'Using multiple online identities and being secretive.'

    Does that mean SeanT, The Last Boy Scout, Foxy, Lost Password and I are all ISIL sleeper agents?

    Allah Akbar! I have been rumbled...
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    mickydroy said:

    I predict:

    The Tories will hold N Shropshire because:
    - Postal votes already in
    - Too big mountain to climb
    - Brexit
    - Too many people not that engaged with the political machinations

    That will boost Johnson, who stays on despite the politerati declaring him toast after the past week.

    Two more years drip, drip, drip of misstep, scandal, u-turn, and incompetence.

    Which all leads to a resounding Tory defeat in GE24, never mind the swings required, never mind the BC changes.

    The only way for the Tories to avoid defeat in 2024 is to ditch Johnson now. But they won't.

    Wish I could be as confident as you are, I can see if the clown is still in charge, a concerted attempt to portray him as some sort of hero, who has made mistakes but has learnt from them, by his powerful friends in the media, and then SKS doesnt eat a bacon sandwich properly, and hey ho there us another election win for tories
    No risk of that last bit. SKS is a vegetarian.
    ...who eats fish
    ... but the comment was about a bacon sandwich. Bacon is not fish.
    I wouldn't argue with isam about 'sir keir'. He knows every last detail. Diet, schooling, alcohol intake, driving style, where he gets his socks, favourite colour boxers, the ruddy lot.
    Meat eating, privately educated Human Rights lawyer, who likes a few beers and is a danger to cyclists
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,000
    edited December 2021

    Not withstanding my Boris must and will go post, is there any chance that he would get some sympathy and deflect criticism if Carrie was seen to be behind both the parties and wall paper gate and he is seen as just a bit of a weak male?

    That does depend on whether he dumps her, does it not? He can't very well leave her around* [edit] in that scenario. [Not that I am implying that that is in any way a good thing.]

    And the, erm, inexactitudes about the wallpaper funding can't be put down to Mrs PM.

    Edit/PS: *Or at the very least have to move out of No. 10 to wholly private residences.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,147
    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Just heard on an online module I'm doing on Prevent:

    Sign of being radicalised: 'Using multiple online identities and being secretive.'

    Does that mean SeanT, The Last Boy Scout, Foxy, Lost Password and I are all ISIL sleeper agents?

    'multiple' is the operative word, surely?
    That's why I picked those of us who'd had multiple identities...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 14,309
    pigeon said:

    Nigelb said:

    I don’t understand “Plan B” at all.

    The dampening measures (WFH) won’t make much difference, given Omicron infectiousness.

    The vaxport measures are so limited that I can’t see them incentivising a single anti-vaxxer into getting vaccinated.

    Are we Plan B-ing to:
    a) buy time for more boosters?
    b) squash demand on the NHS?
    c) both?

    And whether a, b, or c - what are the relevant predicted metrics that we are trying to achieve?

    It is too easy to call out “dead cat”, but it does appear Boris rushed ahead with yesterday’s announcement to the surprise of colleagues, and he clearly hasn’t taken the parliamentary party with him.

    The only case I can make for it is that the announcement of government measures like this prompts people inclined to be cautious to be more so. But I have no idea how great that effect might be.
    The vaxports - particularly in view of the end Jan sunset clause - seem a bureaucratic waste of time.
    Also, did they get rid of that compulsory isolation upon contact with an Omicrone?

    Because if not; the country will be paralysis come the New Year.
    Yes, they have at least got rid of that. Daily testing now for close contacts (although no idea how they will trace close contacts – the dreaded QR codes haven't been revived)
    They'll expect members of the same household to lock themselves away, one assumes (which could yet play havoc with the schools again in the New Year - IF the kids aren't all back to remote learning by that point,) and someone from test & trace might ring up to ask you who else you know you've had contact with recently. Although there's nothing to stop people from lying, of course.

    Essentially, as with the mask theatre and vaxports (in limited places only, can be circumvented by unverifiable LFTs,) the domestic stuff, WFH excepted, looks mostly like something-must-be-done-ism. All intended by ministers to demonstrate that they are taking the thing seriously, whilst in practice achieving pretty much nothing. Save for scaring the shit out of the more nervous segment of the populace and torpedoing consumer confidence, of course.

    Whether this all means that they're letting businesses have the festive season with the full intention of putting everyone under house arrest at the start of January, or they're just playing for time and hoping the Omicronpanic turns out to be a damp squib, who can say?
    Yes it all seems a bit ridiculous – given that Plan B is either going to prove unnecessary or inadequate*

    (*for their goal – my view is we need to find a better way of dealing with this other than being in a perennial state of either having restrictions, or fearing them)
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 2,745
    And that's @isam gone as well. That Ken Livingstone thing must've been some spat.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,000
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Just heard on an online module I'm doing on Prevent:

    Sign of being radicalised: 'Using multiple online identities and being secretive.'

    Does that mean SeanT, The Last Boy Scout, Foxy, Lost Password and I are all ISIL sleeper agents?

    'multiple' is the operative word, surely?
    That's why I picked those of us who'd had multiple identities...
    Oh, I hadn't realised - sorry.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,323
    edited December 2021
    Carnyx said:

    Not withstanding my Boris must and will go post, is there any chance that he would get some sympathy and deflect criticism if Carrie was seen to be behind both the parties and wall paper gate and he is seen as just a bit of a weak male?

    That does depend on whether he dumps her, does it not? He can't very well leave her around [edit] in that scenario. [Not that I am implying that that is in any way a good thing.]

    And the, erm, inexactitudes about the wallpaper funding can't be put down to Mrs PM.
    Notwithstanding my earlier prediction, I live in hope that Johnson's next lie will be a terminal logical inexactitude.
  • Labour has opened up a six-point lead over the Tories as revelations over rule-breaking Christmas parties and sleaze hit Boris Johnson in the polls.

    An exclusive survey, conducted by Survation on December 1, after the Mirror's bombshell story about No 10's lockdown-breaking festive knees-up, sees support for Labour soar to 40% (+1%) while the Conservatives slump to 34%.

    It represents a breakthrough for Keir Starmer as it is the highest poll lead for his party since Boris Johnson took power.

    The last time backing for Labour reached 40%, with the same pollster, was January 2, 2019, when Theresa May was PM and Jeremy Corbyn was at the Opposition's helm.

    Ed Davey's Lib Dems polled at 10% (+1%), while right-wing populist party Reform UK, headed by Brexiteer Richard Tice, represents a new threat to the Tories, taking 3% (+3%). Backing for the Greens was also up at 4% (+1%).

    It comes as the Prime Minister attempts to fend off a barrage of criticism over the secret festive bash on December 18 last year.


    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/labour-opens-up-astonishing-six-25658677?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,938
    BigRich said:

    Endillion said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Endillion said:

    Even if the Lib Dems win, it proves nothing. Johnson's Conservative party has been utterly discredited, and the Lib Dems have always been heavy favourites for this seat.

    Have the LDs "always" been heavy favourites?
    No; this is a reference to discussions earlier today on the subject of Ken Livingstone in 2008.

    Free Philip Thompson! With every A-Level Economics textbook!
    What's happened to Philip Thompson?
    He tried to pay for Johnson's refurbishment. It was embarrassing the site.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 14,309

    I predict:

    The Tories will hold N Shropshire because:
    - Postal votes already in
    - Too big mountain to climb
    - Brexit
    - Too many people not that engaged with the political machinations

    That will boost Johnson, who stays on despite the politerati declaring him toast after the past week.

    Two more years drip, drip, drip of misstep, scandal, u-turn, and incompetence.

    Which all leads to a resounding Tory defeat in GE24, never mind the swings required, never mind the BC changes.

    The only way for the Tories to avoid defeat in 2024 is to ditch Johnson now. But they won't.

    I completely disagree Johnson can reach voters other Tories can't

    I fully expect him to win the next GE if Tory bedwetters haven't defenestrated him
    I appreciate he can count on your vote. God alone knows why.
    Yes, John's transition from raging Corbynite to obsequious Boris Fan Boy has been one of the most unedifying spectacles seen on PB for some time.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 5,154
    The thing I think amazing in all this is that I will get more opprobium both here and in a public setting for saying fuck off to masking and social distancing and refusing to do it than people who refuse to vaccinate.

    Refuse to vaccinate and there will be plenty riding to your defence, it is your body and you are sovereign over what goes in it. Refuse to obey shite regulation that is the current covid theatre and will achieve the squareroot of fuck all and get people piling in on you and little support
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,084
    edited December 2021
    South Africa COVID update: Daily cases near all-time high

    - New cases: 22,391
    - Average: 15,044 (+1,551)
    - Positivity rate: 29.8% (+3)
    - In hospital: 4,795 (+543)
    - In ICU: 398 (+30)
    - New deaths: 22
    - Average: 20 (-3)

    That positivity rate.....
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,323

    Labour has opened up a six-point lead over the Tories as revelations over rule-breaking Christmas parties and sleaze hit Boris Johnson in the polls.

    An exclusive survey, conducted by Survation on December 1, after the Mirror's bombshell story about No 10's lockdown-breaking festive knees-up, sees support for Labour soar to 40% (+1%) while the Conservatives slump to 34%.

    It represents a breakthrough for Keir Starmer as it is the highest poll lead for his party since Boris Johnson took power.

    The last time backing for Labour reached 40%, with the same pollster, was January 2, 2019, when Theresa May was PM and Jeremy Corbyn was at the Opposition's helm.

    Ed Davey's Lib Dems polled at 10% (+1%), while right-wing populist party Reform UK, headed by Brexiteer Richard Tice, represents a new threat to the Tories, taking 3% (+3%). Backing for the Greens was also up at 4% (+1%).

    It comes as the Prime Minister attempts to fend off a barrage of criticism over the secret festive bash on December 18 last year.


    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/labour-opens-up-astonishing-six-25658677?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

    Cue @HYUFD seat prediction. Or maybe not.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,147

    Labour has opened up a six-point lead over the Tories as revelations over rule-breaking Christmas parties and sleaze hit Boris Johnson in the polls.

    An exclusive survey, conducted by Survation on December 1, after the Mirror's bombshell story about No 10's lockdown-breaking festive knees-up, sees support for Labour soar to 40% (+1%) while the Conservatives slump to 34%.

    It represents a breakthrough for Keir Starmer as it is the highest poll lead for his party since Boris Johnson took power.

    The last time backing for Labour reached 40%, with the same pollster, was January 2, 2019, when Theresa May was PM and Jeremy Corbyn was at the Opposition's helm.

    Ed Davey's Lib Dems polled at 10% (+1%), while right-wing populist party Reform UK, headed by Brexiteer Richard Tice, represents a new threat to the Tories, taking 3% (+3%). Backing for the Greens was also up at 4% (+1%).

    It comes as the Prime Minister attempts to fend off a barrage of criticism over the secret festive bash on December 18 last year.


    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/labour-opens-up-astonishing-six-25658677?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

    I hope @CorrectHorseBattery hadn't another bet with his mate to let him try and recoup his winnings. That's how friendships get ruined.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,739
    edited December 2021

    Labour has opened up a six-point lead over the Tories as revelations over rule-breaking Christmas parties and sleaze hit Boris Johnson in the polls.

    An exclusive survey, conducted by Survation on December 1, after the Mirror's bombshell story about No 10's lockdown-breaking festive knees-up, sees support for Labour soar to 40% (+1%) while the Conservatives slump to 34%.

    It represents a breakthrough for Keir Starmer as it is the highest poll lead for his party since Boris Johnson took power.

    The last time backing for Labour reached 40%, with the same pollster, was January 2, 2019, when Theresa May was PM and Jeremy Corbyn was at the Opposition's helm.

    Ed Davey's Lib Dems polled at 10% (+1%), while right-wing populist party Reform UK, headed by Brexiteer Richard Tice, represents a new threat to the Tories, taking 3% (+3%). Backing for the Greens was also up at 4% (+1%).

    It comes as the Prime Minister attempts to fend off a barrage of criticism over the secret festive bash on December 18 last year.


    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/labour-opens-up-astonishing-six-25658677?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

    As long as Boris keeps the Labour lead under 10% after all this it will not be too big a disaster midterm.

    Ed Miliband and Kinnock frequently got to 10%+ leads midterm and Blair double that and even a 6% lead would still be well short of what Starmer needs for a Labour majority.

    Note the poll was conducted yesterday and today not December 1st
    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1469005412339007489?s=20
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,103
    Thinking of getting one of my Grandkids this.I understand its ideal for party food

    Its half price at Wilko presumably after Boris's endorsement became a bad thing


    https://www.latestdeals.co.uk/deals/peppa-pig-electronic-kitchen-wilko
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,431
    pigeon said:

    And that's @isam gone as well. That Ken Livingstone thing must've been some spat.

    Isam has just posted.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 14,309
    pigeon said:

    And that's @isam gone as well. That Ken Livingstone thing must've been some spat.

    What on Earth is going on?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,000
    Pagan2 said:

    The thing I think amazing in all this is that I will get more opprobium both here and in a public setting for saying fuck off to masking and social distancing and refusing to do it than people who refuse to vaccinate.

    Refuse to vaccinate and there will be plenty riding to your defence, it is your body and you are sovereign over what goes in it. Refuse to obey shite regulation that is the current covid theatre and will achieve the squareroot of fuck all and get people piling in on you and little support

    It's not a shite regulation - and it is entirely visible. Put this way, I wouldn't want to sit next to you on the Tube, but how can I spot an anti-vaxxer who is masked?

    I used to wear much heavier masks for the entire working day, so I don't sympathise with those who merely find them uncomfortable, though there are real issues with some people (deaf, asthmatic etc.)

    Though I have considerable sympathy for your feeling hard done by compared to the anti-vaxxers.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 2,745
    Stocky said:

    pigeon said:

    And that's @isam gone as well. That Ken Livingstone thing must've been some spat.

    Isam has just posted.
    Yes. He's only just been canned.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,180
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Just heard on an online module I'm doing on Prevent:

    Sign of being radicalised: 'Using multiple online identities and being secretive.'

    Does that mean SeanT, The Last Boy Scout, Foxy, Lost Password and I are all ISIL sleeper agents?

    'multiple' is the operative word, surely?
    That's why I picked those of us who'd had multiple identities...
    Who did you use to be if one may ask?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 14,309

    Thinking of getting one of my Grandkids this.I understand its ideal for party food

    Its half price at Wilko presumably after Boris's endorsement became a bad thing


    https://www.latestdeals.co.uk/deals/peppa-pig-electronic-kitchen-wilko

    That looks like the sort of horrific beeping plastic that parents hate within seconds of it coming out of the wrapping paper. Send a set to your mate Bozza instead.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,103

    pigeon said:

    And that's @isam gone as well. That Ken Livingstone thing must've been some spat.

    What on Earth is going on?
    Mike culling Members faster than SKS
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,324

    Full Survation.


    LAB 40% (+1)

    CON 34% (-2)

    LD 10% (+1)

    SNP 4% (-1)

    GRN 4% (+1)


    @bigjohnowls, please explain.

    Ah, but in the ever wonderful words of HFUYD, still not 10 points
  • kinabalu said:

    I predict:

    The Tories will hold N Shropshire because:
    - Postal votes already in
    - Too big mountain to climb
    - Brexit
    - Too many people not that engaged with the political machinations

    That will boost Johnson, who stays on despite the politerati declaring him toast after the past week.

    Two more years drip, drip, drip of misstep, scandal, u-turn, and incompetence.

    Which all leads to a resounding Tory defeat in GE24, never mind the swings required, never mind the BC changes.

    The only way for the Tories to avoid defeat in 2024 is to ditch Johnson now. But they won't.

    If it becomes clear he's leading them to defeat they'll ditch him, though, won't they?

    Most Tory MPs knew he'd be a dreadful PM. His USP was vote winner.
    Tory MPs aren’t as regicidal as popularly believed. It’s also not obvious who could revive Tory fortunes.
    It wasn't obvious in 1975 or 1990 or 2016 either. Thatcher was almost a stalking horse going in but nabbed it by doing well enough in round one that, when Heath did withdraw, she had all the momentum while others hadn't got going. Major wasn't the obvious choice - it's just enough people couldn't forgive Heseltine for wielding the knife. Cameron had to go but it wasn't at all clear who should replace him. It seems obvious now that May was the wrong choice, but it didn't look like that in the months after her election - she simply ran just about the worst General Election campaign ever seen and blew through an enormous lead in a matter of weeks.

    The defenestrations of IDS and May were more obvious - Howard had positioned himself as the strong, experienced man to get rid of a weakling, and it was fairly clear given the situation in 2019 that the Tories had to have a Brexiteer rather than a Remainer managing Brexit, and that Johnson was the leading contender.

    Whilst it isn't obvious this time, there does seem to be a fairly compelling case for Sunak if it is felt that the issue is competence and probity. Maybe Rishi is actually a chaotic fraudster, but that's certainly not apparent. Now there are also question marks (e.g. can he reaches the northern places Johnson managed to in 2019?) But there are ALWAYS question marks - it's not like any of them were universally seen as winners or as improvements.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,180

    Labour has opened up a six-point lead over the Tories as revelations over rule-breaking Christmas parties and sleaze hit Boris Johnson in the polls.

    An exclusive survey, conducted by Survation on December 1, after the Mirror's bombshell story about No 10's lockdown-breaking festive knees-up, sees support for Labour soar to 40% (+1%) while the Conservatives slump to 34%.

    It represents a breakthrough for Keir Starmer as it is the highest poll lead for his party since Boris Johnson took power.

    The last time backing for Labour reached 40%, with the same pollster, was January 2, 2019, when Theresa May was PM and Jeremy Corbyn was at the Opposition's helm.

    Ed Davey's Lib Dems polled at 10% (+1%), while right-wing populist party Reform UK, headed by Brexiteer Richard Tice, represents a new threat to the Tories, taking 3% (+3%). Backing for the Greens was also up at 4% (+1%).

    It comes as the Prime Minister attempts to fend off a barrage of criticism over the secret festive bash on December 18 last year.


    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/labour-opens-up-astonishing-six-25658677?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

    Dated 8-9 Dec, changes from 1 Dec, not as stated
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,147
    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Just heard on an online module I'm doing on Prevent:

    Sign of being radicalised: 'Using multiple online identities and being secretive.'

    Does that mean SeanT, The Last Boy Scout, Foxy, Lost Password and I are all ISIL sleeper agents?

    'multiple' is the operative word, surely?
    That's why I picked those of us who'd had multiple identities...
    Who did you use to be if one may ask?
    Very many years ago when I first posted I called myself the Half Blood Welshman. Then after a long break, having graduated, I came back as Y Doethur.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 26,000

    Thinking of getting one of my Grandkids this.I understand its ideal for party food

    Its half price at Wilko presumably after Boris's endorsement became a bad thing


    https://www.latestdeals.co.uk/deals/peppa-pig-electronic-kitchen-wilko

    That looks like the sort of horrific beeping plastic that parents hate within seconds of it coming out of the wrapping paper. Send a set to your mate Bozza instead.
    JUst right for the flat refit. Imagine if they'd only used that - so much cheaper.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,036

    Full Survation.


    LAB 40% (+1)

    CON 34% (-2)

    LD 10% (+1)

    SNP 4% (-1)

    GRN 4% (+1)


    @bigjohnowls, please explain.

    Labour reaching 40% is a necessary, though not yet sufficient, indicator of real progress, and one that will worry Tory MPs. That 6 point gap indicates that there must now be some Tory to Labour switchers, I think, though I haven't seen the data. Previously, all the evidence showed that Tories were losing votes not to Labour but to LDs and Reform.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,457

    South Africa COVID update: Daily cases near all-time high

    - New cases: 22,391
    - Average: 15,044 (+1,551)
    - Positivity rate: 29.8% (+3)
    - In hospital: 4,795 (+543)
    - In ICU: 398 (+30)
    - New deaths: 22
    - Average: 20 (-3)

    That positivity rate.....

    That compares to 11,535 cases last Thursday, which is roughly doubling ever 7 days.

    ok, not that simple become of number of test and positivity rate, but this idea of doubling ever 2 days does seem a bit overblown.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,829

    Full Survation.


    LAB 40% (+1)

    CON 34% (-2)

    LD 10% (+1)

    SNP 4% (-1)

    GRN 4% (+1)


    @bigjohnowls, please explain.

    Outlier?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,180
    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Just heard on an online module I'm doing on Prevent:

    Sign of being radicalised: 'Using multiple online identities and being secretive.'

    Does that mean SeanT, The Last Boy Scout, Foxy, Lost Password and I are all ISIL sleeper agents?

    'multiple' is the operative word, surely?
    That's why I picked those of us who'd had multiple identities...
    Who did you use to be if one may ask?
    Very many years ago when I first posted I called myself the Half Blood Welshman. Then after a long break, having graduated, I came back as Y Doethur.
    Ah, I often wondered what had become of that complete and utter much valued poster.
  • Full Survation.


    LAB 40% (+1)

    CON 34% (-2)

    LD 10% (+1)

    SNP 4% (-1)

    GRN 4% (+1)


    @bigjohnowls, please explain.

    Ah, but in the ever wonderful words of HFUYD, still not 10 points
    According to electoral calculus this would put Labour on 309 seats vs 248 for the Tories

    But take it with a pinch of salt, there's still plenty of time left and this could be an outlier!

    And I think at this level Labour could probably govern as a minority party and just dare the SNP to vote down progressive policies


    https://twitter.com/PoliSciJack/status/1469007019470430209
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 2,745
    Pagan2 said:

    The thing I think amazing in all this is that I will get more opprobium both here and in a public setting for saying fuck off to masking and social distancing and refusing to do it than people who refuse to vaccinate.

    Refuse to vaccinate and there will be plenty riding to your defence, it is your body and you are sovereign over what goes in it. Refuse to obey shite regulation that is the current covid theatre and will achieve the squareroot of fuck all and get people piling in on you and little support

    The ongoing obsession with silly cloth and paper masks is one of the most bizarre facets of this whole miserable, never ending crisis. Insofar as I'm aware no conclusive evidence has ever been produced that they're any use at all; all of the studies, such as they are, are variously non-committal, utilise very low sample sizes, were conducted in irrelevant situations (e.g. looking at transmission within households,) are flawed systemically (e.g. unable to distinguish between changes in disease prevalence caused by the masks themselves or by behavioural differences between mask and non-mask wearers, or are statistical analyses that simply aggregate a number of these flawed studies and attempt to draw conclusions by passing all the results through a computer.

    Pieces of blue paper seem to have acquired the status of magical amulets to ward off the evil eye. You'd probably get about as much protection from the virus by wearing a medallion with Chris Whitty's face on it, and it would be considerably less annoying.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,147
    edited December 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    ydoethur said:

    Just heard on an online module I'm doing on Prevent:

    Sign of being radicalised: 'Using multiple online identities and being secretive.'

    Does that mean SeanT, The Last Boy Scout, Foxy, Lost Password and I are all ISIL sleeper agents?

    'multiple' is the operative word, surely?
    That's why I picked those of us who'd had multiple identities...
    Who did you use to be if one may ask?
    Very many years ago when I first posted I called myself the Half Blood Welshman. Then after a long break, having graduated, I came back as Y Doethur.
    Ah, I often wondered what had become of that complete and utter much valued poster.
    Well, at least unlike one or two others around at that time who are sadly departed, I am still upright and breathing.

    I appreciate there may be several posters (well, one in particular) who may find this enormously disappointing.
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,541
    Andy_JS said:

    Roger said:

    As I understand it Shropshire is culturally and geographically miles from the Red Wall Brexiteer thickos so there has to be at least a possibility Johnson's lot will come third

    North Shropshire is almost next door to Newcastle-under-Lyme, one of the archetypal Red Wall seats. It's also adjacent to Wrexham. Telford is very close as well.
    Some parts of the constituency have a Crewe postcode.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,829
    ydoethur said:

    Full Survation.


    LAB 40% (+1)

    CON 34% (-2)

    LD 10% (+1)

    SNP 4% (-1)

    GRN 4% (+1)


    @bigjohnowls, please explain.

    Outlier?
    Yeah, that Tory figure's suspiciously high.
    I was helping BJO out with TSE's demand.
  • BigRich said:

    South Africa COVID update: Daily cases near all-time high

    - New cases: 22,391
    - Average: 15,044 (+1,551)
    - Positivity rate: 29.8% (+3)
    - In hospital: 4,795 (+543)
    - In ICU: 398 (+30)
    - New deaths: 22
    - Average: 20 (-3)

    That positivity rate.....

    That compares to 11,535 cases last Thursday, which is roughly doubling ever 7 days.

    ok, not that simple become of number of test and positivity rate, but this idea of doubling ever 2 days does seem a bit overblown.
    No, because you have to look at the data by area,
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 14,309

    South Africa COVID update: Daily cases near all-time high

    - New cases: 22,391
    - Average: 15,044 (+1,551)
    - Positivity rate: 29.8% (+3)
    - In hospital: 4,795 (+543)
    - In ICU: 398 (+30)
    - New deaths: 22
    - Average: 20 (-3)

    That positivity rate.....

    What's the change on the cases? Looks like it could be slowing down to me. Although that could well be just noise / reporting date fallacy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,739

    kinabalu said:

    I predict:

    The Tories will hold N Shropshire because:
    - Postal votes already in
    - Too big mountain to climb
    - Brexit
    - Too many people not that engaged with the political machinations

    That will boost Johnson, who stays on despite the politerati declaring him toast after the past week.

    Two more years drip, drip, drip of misstep, scandal, u-turn, and incompetence.

    Which all leads to a resounding Tory defeat in GE24, never mind the swings required, never mind the BC changes.

    The only way for the Tories to avoid defeat in 2024 is to ditch Johnson now. But they won't.

    If it becomes clear he's leading them to defeat they'll ditch him, though, won't they?

    Most Tory MPs knew he'd be a dreadful PM. His USP was vote winner.
    Tory MPs aren’t as regicidal as popularly believed. It’s also not obvious who could revive Tory fortunes.
    It wasn't obvious in 1975 or 1990 or 2016 either. Thatcher was almost a stalking horse going in but nabbed it by doing well enough in round one that, when Heath did withdraw, she had all the momentum while others hadn't got going. Major wasn't the obvious choice - it's just enough people couldn't forgive Heseltine for wielding the knife. Cameron had to go but it wasn't at all clear who should replace him. It seems obvious now that May was the wrong choice, but it didn't look like that in the months after her election - she simply ran just about the worst General Election campaign ever seen and blew through an enormous lead in a matter of weeks.

    The defenestrations of IDS and May were more obvious - Howard had positioned himself as the strong, experienced man to get rid of a weakling, and it was fairly clear given the situation in 2019 that the Tories had to have a Brexiteer rather than a Remainer managing Brexit, and that Johnson was the leading contender.

    Whilst it isn't obvious this time, there does seem to be a fairly compelling case for Sunak if it is felt that the issue is competence and probity. Maybe Rishi is actually a chaotic fraudster, but that's certainly not apparent. Now there are also question marks (e.g. can he reaches the northern places Johnson managed to in 2019?) But there are ALWAYS question marks - it's not like any of them were universally seen as winners or as improvements.
    Unless Labour has a clear poll lead for 6 months and there start to be polls giving a Sunak led Tories a clear poll lead over Labour, Boris will stay.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,667
    edited December 2021

    Full Survation.


    LAB 40% (+1)

    CON 34% (-2)

    LD 10% (+1)

    SNP 4% (-1)

    GRN 4% (+1)


    @bigjohnowls, please explain.

    Ah, but in the ever wonderful words of HFUYD, still not 10 points
    According to electoral calculus this would put Labour on 309 seats vs 248 for the Tories

    But take it with a pinch of salt, there's still plenty of time left and this could be an outlier!

    And I think at this level Labour could probably govern as a minority party and just dare the SNP to vote down progressive policies


    https://twitter.com/PoliSciJack/status/1469007019470430209
    old boundaries or the new ones?

    Not that it makes much difference but at what point can Labour no longer govern as a minority party while daring to vote things down. 300 seats, 280 seats? And that 309 could easily be 300 under the new seats.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,325

    Full Survation.


    LAB 40% (+1)

    CON 34% (-2)

    LD 10% (+1)

    SNP 4% (-1)

    GRN 4% (+1)


    @bigjohnowls, please explain.

    What was the biggest lead Labour achieved in 2010-2015 Pariament?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,945

    pigeon said:

    And that's @isam gone as well. That Ken Livingstone thing must've been some spat.

    What on Earth is going on?
    There was no isam. There was no Philip Thompson.

    Flight Officer David Campbell : The thing that's always worried me about being one of The Few is the way we keep on getting fewer.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,080
    Putting those figures into Flavible: Lab 308, Con 245, SNP 52, LD 20, usual for PC/Grn.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,431

    pigeon said:

    And that's @isam gone as well. That Ken Livingstone thing must've been some spat.

    What on Earth is going on?
    There was no isam. There was no Philip Thompson.

    Flight Officer David Campbell : The thing that's always worried me about being one of The Few is the way we keep on getting fewer.
    How can I get banned without being rude to someone or using cuss words? I want to be one of the cool kids.
This discussion has been closed.