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The LDs now clear betting favourite to gain North Shropshire – politicalbetting.com

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  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 14,101
    maaarsh said:

    Cases down week on week. Consistent with analysis of the specimen date returns which semed to suggest the current rise was coming to an end. Alternatively, dead cat restrictions working their magic already!

    Yes, there's a clear downward inflection point visible on the cases trend line now.

    I know you write in jest, yet many a true word... the hawks will be circling, claiming that Plan B caused the fall.

    Bound to happen.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 14,101
    Stocky said:

    Oof - wasn't expecting this: new infections 50,867. DOWN on same day last week (53,945).

    Do will still have to WFH prior to driving into the office for the Christmas Party?


    "Plan B doing its job."
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,314

    Nigelb said:

    First like the Tories in this seat when they win it next week.

    Only if there are barrowloads of postal votes, I suspect.
    I suspect Labour and the Lib Dem split will end up handing the seat to the Tories by default.
    It's possible. FWIW, I closed out my small wager on the Lib Dems yesterday.
  • The chart is rather strange as it adds up to over 101% while omitting Labour's candidate. I concede that he's unlikely to win, but he certainly has a better chance than the RefUK lady.

    The Lab candidate looks the sort of chap who has a bright future if he's willing to do the rounds outside his own patch. Came across very well in a two-hour hustings on the radio yesterday, if a bit over-trained in pushing elements of his ExcitingModernLocalPlanTM. But he probably seems a bit TOO young and polished for your average Shire tory who didn't even manage to elect a Blairite in 1997. The Tory's similarly had a session with the media trainers.

    Lib Dem Helen Morgan isn't quite so polished or pushy.. but she may be more attractive to wavering voters by seeming like a real person.

    That said.. how many people will even see more than a stakeboard in a field or a leaflet through the door before deciding?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,572

    Nigelb said:

    First like the Tories in this seat when they win it next week.

    Only if there are barrowloads of postal votes, I suspect.
    I suspect Labour and the Lib Dem split will end up handing the seat to the Tories by default.
    Oh I don't know. If the Tories are doing as badly as the media would like us to believe, a split vote between the Lib Dems and Labour could see the Tories come third...
    Oscar Wilde and Little Nell would apply, would it not?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,671
    On how Johnson has transformed Downing Street into his own private palace of lies. There is scarcely a room - or garden - left that is not a testament to his mindbending dishonesty.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/boris-johnson-downing-street-party-b1973005.html https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1468977008348647432/photo/1
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,258

    Stocky said:

    Oof - wasn't expecting this: new infections 50,867. DOWN on same day last week (53,945).

    Do will still have to WFH prior to driving into the office for the Christmas Party?


    "Plan B doing its job."
    Oh yes. That will be the narrative unless we are careful.

    Let's state it loud NOW. If downward trend continues it will be NOTHING TO DO WITH PLAN B.

    There - that's clear.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 14,410
    edited December 2021
    MattW said:
    Proposing an EU-wide minimum wage.

    And a carbon tax at the EU border.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,258
    Scott_xP said:

    On how Johnson has transformed Downing Street into his own private palace of lies. There is scarcely a room - or garden - left that is not a testament to his mindbending dishonesty.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/boris-johnson-downing-street-party-b1973005.html https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1468977008348647432/photo/1

    It's a shame we son't know how many letters to the 1922 have gone in. Anyone care to guess?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 14,101
    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Oof - wasn't expecting this: new infections 50,867. DOWN on same day last week (53,945).

    Do will still have to WFH prior to driving into the office for the Christmas Party?


    "Plan B doing its job."
    Oh yes. That will be the narrative unless we are careful.

    Let's state it loud NOW. If downward trend continues it will be NOTHING TO DO WITH PLAN B.

    There - that's clear.
    I'm in.

    If downward trend continues it will be NOTHING TO DO WITH PLAN B.
  • maaarsh said:

    Cases down week on week. Consistent with analysis of the specimen date returns which semed to suggest the current rise was coming to an end. Alternatively, dead cat restrictions working their magic already!

    Yes, there's a clear downward inflection point visible on the cases trend line now.

    I know you write in jest, yet many a true word... the hawks will be circling, claiming that Plan B caused the fall.

    Bound to happen.
    Also, claims no Plan B, cases would have sky rocketed like last year.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,896

    HYUFD said:

    This is great news for Boris.

    Now the Tories are underdogs he can proclaim the likely narrow Tory hold thanks to 15% or so still voting Labour not LD as a triumph.

    It would be the first Tory by election hold over the LDs for 5 years, since Witney in 2016

    Yes, he's probably throwing another party right now to celebrate.
    Maybe for the birth of his daughter today
    Not another one.....
  • Nigelb said:

    FPT



    Of course people want as normal a life as possible. But most people are sensible enough to understand that it isn't always possible.

    You are also going down a very deep and dangerous rabbit hole. Yes, we get lots of road deaths each year. We also invest heavily to try to reduce that figure, including bringing in legislation and laws that restrict what we can do in our cars - such as the use of mobile phones.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reported_Road_Casualties_Great_Britain#/media/File:Killed_on_British_Roads.png

    It's also a terrible analogy. Five people a day die on our roads. 161 died of Covid yesterday alone. Well over an order of magnitude higher.

    Actually I think it might be a very good comparison if not analogy. Governments put a monetary value on people's lives. That value is not fixed but depends on what area of governance and risk you are talking about. So we find that the value of a statistical life for rail passengers (how much money the Government is willing to spend to save each life) is massively higher than the same value for car passengers. It has never been the case that the Government has a fixed value on human life. If it had been then either we would have had everyone in lockdown every winter (if the value had been high) or we would have made no safety improvements at all to our transport infrastructure (if the value had been too low).

    In the context of Covid it is for society as a whole to decide what is an acceptable number of deaths for given levels of authoritarian regulation. We do it for Flu and set the bar very high. My personal view is we should have a similarly high bar for Covid. Sadly at the moment both the authoritarian political classes and much of the population seem to agree that it should be much lower. How long that will last when they find all their pubs and shops have disappeared and they are out of a job is another matter.

    It is a difficult balance to strike. In healthcare, the study of such matters is known as Health Economics. Unsurprisingly it is a somewhat dry subject, but it is essentially what NICE and other healthcare bodies use to determine whether a drug or device is to be reimbursed. It also considers QALYs (quality adjusted life year) to determine whether an individual has a quality of life improvement associated with the intervention, thereby justifying it.

    A similar calculation is probably done by government to attempt to calculate the benefits of intervention v non intervention. That said, we are talking of the government of Boris Johnson, so probably not.
    Could be worse.
    https://www.codastory.com/waronscience/doctor-in-disguise-russia-coronavirus/
    ...Sergey Samborsky, a welder by profession, went undercover as a doctor in a Siberian hospital for three days in late October. He did what the medical staff at the hospital would not do: care for his 84-year-old grandmother and other mistreated patients in an overcrowded coronavirus ward. He documented his hospital visits with his phone and when he made the shocking footage public, he felt the Russian state media machine turn on him.

    Now known across Russia as the “Grandson from Tomsk,” Samborsky, 27, had gone to Moscow to knock on the doors of federal authorities to file complaints of gross medical negligence. When it became clear that instead of considering his complaints, authorities intended to arrest him, Samborsky fled to neighboring Georgia....
    Slightly puts our complaints about government in the shade!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,314
    The US actually approved an AZN Covid treatment yesterday - their antibody cocktail, not the vaccine.
    https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-science-business-health-allergies-3ec32b59615efb20cac5e693e48fc2f8
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,075
    UK cases by specimen date

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,075
    UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,075
    UK Local R

    image
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 52,874
    edited December 2021
    Stocky said:

    Scott_xP said:

    On how Johnson has transformed Downing Street into his own private palace of lies. There is scarcely a room - or garden - left that is not a testament to his mindbending dishonesty.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/boris-johnson-downing-street-party-b1973005.html https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1468977008348647432/photo/1

    It's a shame we son't know how many letters to the 1922 have gone in. Anyone care to guess?
    I would expect a small number, if indeed any, but that could change almost overnight if the polls crater and Boris continues to attract negative publicity
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,075
    Case summary

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  • Stocky said:

    Scott_xP said:

    On how Johnson has transformed Downing Street into his own private palace of lies. There is scarcely a room - or garden - left that is not a testament to his mindbending dishonesty.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/boris-johnson-downing-street-party-b1973005.html https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1468977008348647432/photo/1

    It's a shame we son't know how many letters to the 1922 have gone in. Anyone care to guess?
    It'd be funny if we discovered Johnson had sent one himself.



    Dear Sir Graham,

    I am a celebrity...get me out of here!

    Yours affectionately

    Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,075
    Hospitals

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,075
    Deaths

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,075
    Age related data

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  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 14,572
    edited December 2021
    I don’t understand “Plan B” at all.

    The dampening measures (WFH) won’t make much difference, given Omicron infectiousness.

    The vaxport measures are so limited that I can’t see them incentivising a single anti-vaxxer into getting vaccinated.

    Are we Plan B-ing to:
    a) buy time for more boosters?
    b) squash demand on the NHS?
    c) both?

    And whether a, b, or c - what are the relevant predicted metrics that we are trying to achieve?

    It is too easy to call out “dead cat”, but it does appear Boris rushed ahead with yesterday’s announcement to the surprise of colleagues, and he clearly hasn’t taken the parliamentary party with him.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,075
    Covid Summary

    - Cases up, but still steady in the over 50s
    - Admissions up
    - Deaths may be levelling off.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 16,896
    As I understand it Shropshire is culturally and geographically miles from the Red Wall Brexiteer thickos so there has to be at least a possibility Johnson's lot will come third
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,383
    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Oof - wasn't expecting this: new infections 50,867. DOWN on same day last week (53,945).

    Do will still have to WFH prior to driving into the office for the Christmas Party?


    "Plan B doing its job."
    Oh yes. That will be the narrative unless we are careful.

    Let's state it loud NOW. If downward trend continues it will be NOTHING TO DO WITH PLAN B.

    There - that's clear.
    I quite agree,

    I do think that a lot, probably most of the 'rise' in reported cases over the last 8 days, has been simply a cases of the more COVID in the news, more people think of COVID, there for get tested, and so we find more, cases, which is why the test numbers have gone up and the positivity rate has not.

    This is not to say that some of the rise could not also be explained by other factors like the weather, but its notable that 48 hours after the news switched to talking about Boris not Omicron, cases and test fall.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 19,371
    Roger said:

    As I understand it Shropshire is culturally and geographically miles from the Red Wall Brexiteer thickos so there has to be at least a possibility Johnson's lot will come third

    Very rural, humongously Leave

    I was at prep school there. It is the setting for Blandings Castle in PG Wodehouse and you can see why

    https://www.shropshirestar.com/news/politics/2016/06/24/eu-referendum-result-shropshire-votes-leave/
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,807
    IshmaelZ said:
    I think Omicron is going to turn out to be a damp squib.

    A quote from a SA Doctor yesterday:

    “Having personally seen many of our patients across our Gauteng hospitals, their symptoms are far milder than anything we experienced during the first three waves,” Netcare’s Richard Friedland told the Daily Maverick on Wednesday.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,377
    edited December 2021
    Roger said:

    As I understand it Shropshire is culturally and geographically miles from the Red Wall Brexiteer thickos so there has to be at least a possibility Johnson's lot will come third

    North Shropshire is almost next door to Newcastle-under-Lyme, one of the archetypal Red Wall seats. It's also adjacent to Wrexham. Telford is very close as well.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,385

    Covid Summary

    - Cases up, but still steady in the over 50s
    - Admissions up
    - Deaths may be levelling off.

    Interestingly, comparing headline hospital numbers to the weekly updated split between actual covid cases, and people in for broken legs who also have a positive test, the share of 'incidental' covid cases is rising - which would be consistent with recent testing and case increases, so looks like the headline slow rise in total hospital numbers may be a slightly unfair picture.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 2,374
    Roger said:

    As I understand it Shropshire is culturally and geographically miles from the Red Wall Brexiteer thickos so there has to be at least a possibility Johnson's lot will come third

    Feel free to stake lots of money on it. Have you ever been there?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 14,572
    The Tories will win North Shropshire, and for a time this will arrest the mounting disaffection with Boris.

    He is safe for a while. But only for a while.

    For the first time ever, I think a Labour led government the most likely outcome if Boris is still leading the Tories into the next election.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,383

    I don’t understand “Plan B” at all.

    The dampening measures (WFH) won’t make much difference, given Omicron infectiousness.

    The vaxport measures are so limited that I can’t see them incentivising a single anti-vaxxer into getting vaccinated.

    Are we Plan B-ing to:
    a) buy time for more boosters?
    b) squash demand on the NHS?
    c) both?

    And whether a, b, or c - what are the relevant predicted metrics that we are trying to achieve?

    It is too easy to call out “dead cat”, but it does appear Boris rushed ahead with yesterday’s announcement to the surprise of colleagues, and he clearly hasn’t taken the parliamentary party with him.

    d) we are implementing Plan B to change the narrative and stop all the news about Boris.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,258

    Covid Summary

    - Cases up, but still steady in the over 50s
    - Admissions up
    - Deaths may be levelling off.

    Cases are down 50867 vs 53948
  • Roger said:

    As I understand it Shropshire is culturally and geographically miles from the Red Wall Brexiteer thickos so there has to be at least a possibility Johnson's lot will come third

    Shropshire voted 104,166 to leave and 78,897 to remain on a 77.42% turnout

    Insulting the majority of these voters is exactly why leave won, and you still do not get it
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 41,314
    edited December 2021

    I don’t understand “Plan B” at all.

    The dampening measures (WFH) won’t make much difference, given Omicron infectiousness.

    The vaxport measures are so limited that I can’t see them incentivising a single anti-vaxxer into getting vaccinated.

    Are we Plan B-ing to:
    a) buy time for more boosters?
    b) squash demand on the NHS?
    c) both?

    And whether a, b, or c - what are the relevant predicted metrics that we are trying to achieve?

    It is too easy to call out “dead cat”, but it does appear Boris rushed ahead with yesterday’s announcement to the surprise of colleagues, and he clearly hasn’t taken the parliamentary party with him.

    The only case I can make for it is that the announcement of government measures like this prompts people inclined to be cautious to be more so. But I have no idea how great that effect might be.
    The vaxports - particularly in view of the end Jan sunset clause - seem a bureaucratic waste of time.
  • pingping Posts: 2,439
    edited December 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    Roger said:

    As I understand it Shropshire is culturally and geographically miles from the Red Wall Brexiteer thickos so there has to be at least a possibility Johnson's lot will come third

    North Shropshire is almost next door to Newcastle-under-Lyme, one of the archetypal Red Wall seats. It's also adjacent to Wrexham.
    I think the neighbouring Stoke seats are more archetypal red wall than Newcastle. IIRC Newcastle has keele uni within the constituency and is generally more prosperous than Stoke. It also has a history of reasonably solid conservative voteshare >25%
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 14,572

    Roger said:

    As I understand it Shropshire is culturally and geographically miles from the Red Wall Brexiteer thickos so there has to be at least a possibility Johnson's lot will come third

    Shropshire voted 104,166 to leave and 78,897 to remain on a 77.42% turnout

    Insulting the majority of these voters is exactly why leave won, and you still do not get it
    Leave won because leavers voted for a mess of pottage. No insults were necessary (and none made, as far as I can remember).
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,258

    I don’t understand “Plan B” at all.

    The dampening measures (WFH) won’t make much difference, given Omicron infectiousness.

    The vaxport measures are so limited that I can’t see them incentivising a single anti-vaxxer into getting vaccinated.

    Are we Plan B-ing to:
    a) buy time for more boosters?
    b) squash demand on the NHS?
    c) both?

    And whether a, b, or c - what are the relevant predicted metrics that we are trying to achieve?

    It is too easy to call out “dead cat”, but it does appear Boris rushed ahead with yesterday’s announcement to the surprise of colleagues, and he clearly hasn’t taken the parliamentary party with him.

    Notice how they were justifying the figures with stats from South Africa (a country with vaccination rates in the 20s). The UK stats don't justify it. I sensed that this is Johnson more than Whitty and Vallance.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398

    HYUFD said:

    This is great news for Boris.

    Now the Tories are underdogs he can proclaim the likely narrow Tory hold thanks to 15% or so still voting Labour not LD as a triumph.

    It would be the first Tory by election hold over the LDs for 5 years, since Witney in 2016

    Yes, he's probably throwing another party right now to celebrate.
    Maybe for the birth of his daughter today
    Baby Peppa 🙂
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 14,572
    Nigelb said:

    I don’t understand “Plan B” at all.

    The dampening measures (WFH) won’t make much difference, given Omicron infectiousness.

    The vaxport measures are so limited that I can’t see them incentivising a single anti-vaxxer into getting vaccinated.

    Are we Plan B-ing to:
    a) buy time for more boosters?
    b) squash demand on the NHS?
    c) both?

    And whether a, b, or c - what are the relevant predicted metrics that we are trying to achieve?

    It is too easy to call out “dead cat”, but it does appear Boris rushed ahead with yesterday’s announcement to the surprise of colleagues, and he clearly hasn’t taken the parliamentary party with him.

    The only case I can make for it is that the announcement of government measures like this prompts people inclined to be cautious to be more so. But I have no idea how great that effect might be.
    The vaxports - particularly in view of the end Jan sunset clause - seem a bureaucratic waste of time.
    Also, did they get rid of that compulsory isolation upon contact with an Omicrone?

    Because if not; the country will be paralysis come the New Year.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Roger said:

    As I understand it Shropshire is culturally and geographically miles from the Red Wall Brexiteer thickos so there has to be at least a possibility Johnson's lot will come third

    North Shropshire is almost next door to Newcastle-under-Lyme, one of the archetypal Red Wall seats. It's also adjacent to Wrexham.
    Adjacent, but Wrexham (town) especially is a million miles off. That said, the LDs had better hope everyone's on the same page about Brexit being done and dusted.

    I think this is a new sub-section of Tory seat to waver - Brexity Shire Tory since forever.
  • Labour should be trying to keep him in the cabinet, not get him to resign.
  • Roger said:

    As I understand it Shropshire is culturally and geographically miles from the Red Wall Brexiteer thickos so there has to be at least a possibility Johnson's lot will come third

    Shropshire voted 104,166 to leave and 78,897 to remain on a 77.42% turnout

    Insulting the majority of these voters is exactly why leave won, and you still do not get it
    Leave won because leavers voted for a mess of pottage. No insults were necessary (and none made, as far as I can remember).
    'Red wall Brexiteer thickos' was @Roger comment
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,530
    The main brake on sending a letter to the '22 is convincing yourself that 180ish of your colleagues will go against Boris in the subsequent VOC.

    I'm sure plenty would love to send a letter in, but need to look a good cross section of their colleagues in the eye first.

    Ultimately, that is what held the ERG back from making a move on T. May for so long.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 14,410
    edited December 2021
    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Still too slow...

    414,645 booster vaccinations in 🇬🇧 yesterday (407,851 the previous Wednesday)

    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 340,615
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 39,327
    🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 20,314
    NI 14,389

    While it is too slow, it is worth noting that the UK has delivered booster shots to a third of the population (total) by now. That puts us second behind only Israel in the whole world. And the UK is still on a sharply rising path. On current trends, you'd expect it to pass Israel around Christmas.

    It's also worth noting that Europe is beginning to get a move on. A month ago just 4% of Germans had had a booster. Today it's almost 19%.

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-vaccine-booster-doses-per-capita?country=ISR~USA~FRA~ITA~GBR~DEU~BEL
    The most critical bit is getting the over 45s done....

    image
    Israel and Chile.

    :smile:

    https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-vaccine-booster-doses-per-capita?country=ISR~USA~FRA~ITA~GBR~DEU~BEL~CHL

    Homework, homework !

    I suspect Europe is later than us as they were 1-2 months behind last time.

    Perhaps they are limited by people reaching the 6 month point?


    And Uruguay:


  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 14,572
    edited December 2021
    Stocky said:

    I don’t understand “Plan B” at all.

    The dampening measures (WFH) won’t make much difference, given Omicron infectiousness.

    The vaxport measures are so limited that I can’t see them incentivising a single anti-vaxxer into getting vaccinated.

    Are we Plan B-ing to:
    a) buy time for more boosters?
    b) squash demand on the NHS?
    c) both?

    And whether a, b, or c - what are the relevant predicted metrics that we are trying to achieve?

    It is too easy to call out “dead cat”, but it does appear Boris rushed ahead with yesterday’s announcement to the surprise of colleagues, and he clearly hasn’t taken the parliamentary party with him.

    Notice how they were justifying the figures with stats from South Africa (a country with vaccination rates in the 20s). The UK stats don't justify it. I sensed that this is Johnson more than Whitty and Vallance.
    Personally I suspect *something* is justified.

    (I haven’t resiled from my prediction made over a week ago that Omicron is milder, but I worry about the load on the NHS just because of sheer numbers).

    But this ain’t it. We’re I a Tory or Lib Dem MP, I would not vote for this.
  • FPT
    ping said:

    Argh.

    Damn Twitter. They’ve changed their website so you can’t click links without having to sign up / sign in.

    Really damn annoying. I just want to read, not sign up / post anything.

    Grr

    If you open the link in a new Tab then it works.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,530

    Nigelb said:

    I don’t understand “Plan B” at all.

    The dampening measures (WFH) won’t make much difference, given Omicron infectiousness.

    The vaxport measures are so limited that I can’t see them incentivising a single anti-vaxxer into getting vaccinated.

    Are we Plan B-ing to:
    a) buy time for more boosters?
    b) squash demand on the NHS?
    c) both?

    And whether a, b, or c - what are the relevant predicted metrics that we are trying to achieve?

    It is too easy to call out “dead cat”, but it does appear Boris rushed ahead with yesterday’s announcement to the surprise of colleagues, and he clearly hasn’t taken the parliamentary party with him.

    The only case I can make for it is that the announcement of government measures like this prompts people inclined to be cautious to be more so. But I have no idea how great that effect might be.
    The vaxports - particularly in view of the end Jan sunset clause - seem a bureaucratic waste of time.
    Also, did they get rid of that compulsory isolation upon contact with an Omicrone?

    Because if not; the country will be paralysis come the New Year.
    Still there....
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 14,572

    Roger said:

    As I understand it Shropshire is culturally and geographically miles from the Red Wall Brexiteer thickos so there has to be at least a possibility Johnson's lot will come third

    Shropshire voted 104,166 to leave and 78,897 to remain on a 77.42% turnout

    Insulting the majority of these voters is exactly why leave won, and you still do not get it
    Leave won because leavers voted for a mess of pottage. No insults were necessary (and none made, as far as I can remember).
    'Red wall Brexiteer thickos' was @Roger comment
    I don’t remember Roger’s role in the official Remain campaign.
  • NickyBreakspearNickyBreakspear Posts: 259
    edited December 2021
    Latest Omnicron data




    https://twitter.com/ukhsa

    Looks like a 2 day doubling factor.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 5,925
    edited December 2021
    kinabalu said:

    You not hedging that now @MikeSmithson?

    As for me, better than evens on the Cons holding a seat with such a big margin just 2 years ago is very tempting but something is stopping me. Going to sit it out.

    I'm sitting this out for now. It's one of those where you feel there is a very decent price available on someone based on all the evidence, but you can't decide which it is.

    I.e, the odds are very favourable for the Tories as they are bound to hold such a safe seat.

    The odds are generous for the LDs given that the Tories are in terminal meltdown as we speak.

    The odds are amazing for Labour as they are the challenger in second place in a seat that is theirs for the taking given the multiple pileup that is the Tories, and there is precisely zero data suggesting they are not the challenger now.

    Tough business betting.

  • eekeek Posts: 20,269
    Pro_Rata said:

    The main brake on sending a letter to the '22 is convincing yourself that 180ish of your colleagues will go against Boris in the subsequent VOC.

    I'm sure plenty would love to send a letter in, but need to look a good cross section of their colleagues in the eye first.

    Ultimately, that is what held the ERG back from making a move on T. May for so long.

    And even then they got the timing wrong.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 14,101

    Nigelb said:

    I don’t understand “Plan B” at all.

    The dampening measures (WFH) won’t make much difference, given Omicron infectiousness.

    The vaxport measures are so limited that I can’t see them incentivising a single anti-vaxxer into getting vaccinated.

    Are we Plan B-ing to:
    a) buy time for more boosters?
    b) squash demand on the NHS?
    c) both?

    And whether a, b, or c - what are the relevant predicted metrics that we are trying to achieve?

    It is too easy to call out “dead cat”, but it does appear Boris rushed ahead with yesterday’s announcement to the surprise of colleagues, and he clearly hasn’t taken the parliamentary party with him.

    The only case I can make for it is that the announcement of government measures like this prompts people inclined to be cautious to be more so. But I have no idea how great that effect might be.
    The vaxports - particularly in view of the end Jan sunset clause - seem a bureaucratic waste of time.
    Also, did they get rid of that compulsory isolation upon contact with an Omicrone?

    Because if not; the country will be paralysis come the New Year.
    Yes, they have at least got rid of that. Daily testing now for close contacts (although no idea how they will trace close contacts – the dreaded QR codes haven't been revived)
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 14,101
    Pro_Rata said:

    Nigelb said:

    I don’t understand “Plan B” at all.

    The dampening measures (WFH) won’t make much difference, given Omicron infectiousness.

    The vaxport measures are so limited that I can’t see them incentivising a single anti-vaxxer into getting vaccinated.

    Are we Plan B-ing to:
    a) buy time for more boosters?
    b) squash demand on the NHS?
    c) both?

    And whether a, b, or c - what are the relevant predicted metrics that we are trying to achieve?

    It is too easy to call out “dead cat”, but it does appear Boris rushed ahead with yesterday’s announcement to the surprise of colleagues, and he clearly hasn’t taken the parliamentary party with him.

    The only case I can make for it is that the announcement of government measures like this prompts people inclined to be cautious to be more so. But I have no idea how great that effect might be.
    The vaxports - particularly in view of the end Jan sunset clause - seem a bureaucratic waste of time.
    Also, did they get rid of that compulsory isolation upon contact with an Omicrone?

    Because if not; the country will be paralysis come the New Year.
    Still there....
    Nope. Replaced by daily testing.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398

    FPT

    ping said:

    Argh.

    Damn Twitter. They’ve changed their website so you can’t click links without having to sign up / sign in.

    Really damn annoying. I just want to read, not sign up / post anything.

    Grr

    If you open the link in a new Tab then it works.
    I second guess the next post is oh! Oh yeah. Oh. Okay then.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,426
    Quite a lot of black swans right now, bizarre everyone is so focused on a variant to a virus that is no longer novel.

    Russia moving on verge of moving into Ukraine, potentially disrupting gas supplies to Europe and sparking widespread retaliatory sanctions.

    Turkey possible banking collapse spilling into (mainly European) finance market.

    Evergrande plausibly China’s Bear Stearns moment.

    Iran acquiring the bomb.

    General market taper tantrum.

    Goodness knows what the world is going to look like by Dec 2022.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 14,572
    moonshine said:

    Quite a lot of black swans right now, bizarre everyone is so focused on a variant to a virus that is no longer novel.

    Russia moving on verge of moving into Ukraine, potentially disrupting gas supplies to Europe and sparking widespread retaliatory sanctions.

    Turkey possible banking collapse spilling into (mainly European) finance market.

    Evergrande plausibly China’s Bear Stearns moment.

    Iran acquiring the bomb.

    General market taper tantrum.

    Goodness knows what the world is going to look like by Dec 2022.

    This is just the darkness before the dawn.
    Days start get longer again Dec 23.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,269

    Roger said:

    As I understand it Shropshire is culturally and geographically miles from the Red Wall Brexiteer thickos so there has to be at least a possibility Johnson's lot will come third

    Shropshire voted 104,166 to leave and 78,897 to remain on a 77.42% turnout

    Insulting the majority of these voters is exactly why leave won, and you still do not get it
    Leave won because leavers voted for a mess of pottage. No insults were necessary (and none made, as far as I can remember).
    Nope Leave won because they offered hope to a cross section of the population while Remain offered them little more than minimum wage work if they were lucky and a foreigner didn't get it first.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398

    Labour should be trying to keep him in the cabinet, not get him to resign.
    Raab resigns because of the Kabul evacuation mess. Mogg resigns because of the loans not declared. And The early January vote of confidence removes Johnson. It’s just a question in which order they go in.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,807
    moonshine said:

    Quite a lot of black swans right now, bizarre everyone is so focused on a variant to a virus that is no longer novel.

    Russia moving on verge of moving into Ukraine, potentially disrupting gas supplies to Europe and sparking widespread retaliatory sanctions.

    Turkey possible banking collapse spilling into (mainly European) finance market.

    Evergrande plausibly China’s Bear Stearns moment.

    Iran acquiring the bomb.

    General market taper tantrum.

    Goodness knows what the world is going to look like by Dec 2022.

    More people are focused on a potential party a year ago that did not involve the PM.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,671
    eek said:

    Leave won because they offered hope to a cross section of the population

    They offered bullshit.

    And people lapped it up
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,530

    Latest Omnicron data




    https://twitter.com/ukhsa

    Looks like a 2 day doubling factor.

    Do we get the monitoring report with S dropout rates tomorrow (although if stealth Omicron takes hold, that'll make it tricky). Should hopefully give bus a better number for that.

    The good and bad news seems to be the suspicion that Omicron significantly shortens the catching to spreading gap. Means rapider case rate growth in the exponential phase, but also means scientists will be overstating R, so suppression may be easier if needed.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 29,874
    Nigelb said:

    FPT



    Of course people want as normal a life as possible. But most people are sensible enough to understand that it isn't always possible.

    You are also going down a very deep and dangerous rabbit hole. Yes, we get lots of road deaths each year. We also invest heavily to try to reduce that figure, including bringing in legislation and laws that restrict what we can do in our cars - such as the use of mobile phones.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reported_Road_Casualties_Great_Britain#/media/File:Killed_on_British_Roads.png

    It's also a terrible analogy. Five people a day die on our roads. 161 died of Covid yesterday alone. Well over an order of magnitude higher.

    Actually I think it might be a very good comparison if not analogy. Governments put a monetary value on people's lives. That value is not fixed but depends on what area of governance and risk you are talking about. So we find that the value of a statistical life for rail passengers (how much money the Government is willing to spend to save each life) is massively higher than the same value for car passengers. It has never been the case that the Government has a fixed value on human life. If it had been then either we would have had everyone in lockdown every winter (if the value had been high) or we would have made no safety improvements at all to our transport infrastructure (if the value had been too low).

    In the context of Covid it is for society as a whole to decide what is an acceptable number of deaths for given levels of authoritarian regulation. We do it for Flu and set the bar very high. My personal view is we should have a similarly high bar for Covid. Sadly at the moment both the authoritarian political classes and much of the population seem to agree that it should be much lower. How long that will last when they find all their pubs and shops have disappeared and they are out of a job is another matter.

    It is a difficult balance to strike. In healthcare, the study of such matters is known as Health Economics. Unsurprisingly it is a somewhat dry subject, but it is essentially what NICE and other healthcare bodies use to determine whether a drug or device is to be reimbursed. It also considers QALYs (quality adjusted life year) to determine whether an individual has a quality of life improvement associated with the intervention, thereby justifying it.

    A similar calculation is probably done by government to attempt to calculate the benefits of intervention v non intervention. That said, we are talking of the government of Boris Johnson, so probably not.
    Could be worse.
    https://www.codastory.com/waronscience/doctor-in-disguise-russia-coronavirus/
    ...Sergey Samborsky, a welder by profession, went undercover as a doctor in a Siberian hospital for three days in late October. He did what the medical staff at the hospital would not do: care for his 84-year-old grandmother and other mistreated patients in an overcrowded coronavirus ward. He documented his hospital visits with his phone and when he made the shocking footage public, he felt the Russian state media machine turn on him.

    Now known across Russia as the “Grandson from Tomsk,” Samborsky, 27, had gone to Moscow to knock on the doors of federal authorities to file complaints of gross medical negligence. When it became clear that instead of considering his complaints, authorities intended to arrest him, Samborsky fled to neighboring Georgia....
    These people who stick their necks out and make waves in oppressive regimes like Russia are terribly brave.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 19,371

    moonshine said:

    Quite a lot of black swans right now, bizarre everyone is so focused on a variant to a virus that is no longer novel.

    Russia moving on verge of moving into Ukraine, potentially disrupting gas supplies to Europe and sparking widespread retaliatory sanctions.

    Turkey possible banking collapse spilling into (mainly European) finance market.

    Evergrande plausibly China’s Bear Stearns moment.

    Iran acquiring the bomb.

    General market taper tantrum.

    Goodness knows what the world is going to look like by Dec 2022.

    This is just the darkness before the dawn.
    Days start get longer again Dec 23.
    Nightfall starts getting later this Monday.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398

    Covid Summary

    - Cases up, but still steady in the over 50s
    - Admissions up
    - Deaths may be levelling off.

    That’s hard to second guess. But I don’t find this years lockdown rules too draconian yet, my Christmas plans can work with them.

    Meanwhile Off topic. One further question about Something with Nationalism I don’t understand?

    Has the Nation State always existed? Did it begin with the Franks? Or begin more recently with early 19th.C thinkers, like Hegel? Or?

    At what point if any in human history were your “the no such thing as nation state whack jobs” actually right?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,671
    Exclusive: Michael Gove is self-isolating after the Aussie Deputy PM got Covid. They met on Monday.

    Means THREE Cabinet ministers are now self-isolating: Gove, Raab, Shapps. Details in here:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/09/boris-johnson-news-plan-b-downing-street-christmas-party/
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 14,572
    eek said:

    Roger said:

    As I understand it Shropshire is culturally and geographically miles from the Red Wall Brexiteer thickos so there has to be at least a possibility Johnson's lot will come third

    Shropshire voted 104,166 to leave and 78,897 to remain on a 77.42% turnout

    Insulting the majority of these voters is exactly why leave won, and you still do not get it
    Leave won because leavers voted for a mess of pottage. No insults were necessary (and none made, as far as I can remember).
    Nope Leave won because they offered hope to a cross section of the population while Remain offered them little more than minimum wage work if they were lucky and a foreigner didn't get it first.
    As I said, a mess of pottage.

    The bit about Remain offering minimum wage work “if they were lucky”, and foreigners taking their jobs bears no resemblance to actual employment stats pre 2016.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,269
    Scott_xP said:

    eek said:

    Leave won because they offered hope to a cross section of the population

    They offered bullshit.

    And people lapped it up
    And in that bullshit featuring everyone's personal unicorn was the hope that allowed Leave to win.

    That's the thing Boris has a problem with at the next election - he can't offer a better future because he's already binned levelling up.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,530

    Pro_Rata said:

    Nigelb said:

    I don’t understand “Plan B” at all.

    The dampening measures (WFH) won’t make much difference, given Omicron infectiousness.

    The vaxport measures are so limited that I can’t see them incentivising a single anti-vaxxer into getting vaccinated.

    Are we Plan B-ing to:
    a) buy time for more boosters?
    b) squash demand on the NHS?
    c) both?

    And whether a, b, or c - what are the relevant predicted metrics that we are trying to achieve?

    It is too easy to call out “dead cat”, but it does appear Boris rushed ahead with yesterday’s announcement to the surprise of colleagues, and he clearly hasn’t taken the parliamentary party with him.

    The only case I can make for it is that the announcement of government measures like this prompts people inclined to be cautious to be more so. But I have no idea how great that effect might be.
    The vaxports - particularly in view of the end Jan sunset clause - seem a bureaucratic waste of time.
    Also, did they get rid of that compulsory isolation upon contact with an Omicrone?

    Because if not; the country will be paralysis come the New Year.
    Still there....
    Nope. Replaced by daily testing.
    OK. Was still there on the BBC primer this morning. Sigh!
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 14,572
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    eek said:

    Leave won because they offered hope to a cross section of the population

    They offered bullshit.

    And people lapped it up
    And in that bullshit featuring everyone's personal unicorn was the hope that allowed Leave to win.

    That's the thing Boris has a problem with at the next election - he can't offer a better future because he's already binned levelling up.
    The plan is now tax “cuts” instead.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,269

    eek said:

    Roger said:

    As I understand it Shropshire is culturally and geographically miles from the Red Wall Brexiteer thickos so there has to be at least a possibility Johnson's lot will come third

    Shropshire voted 104,166 to leave and 78,897 to remain on a 77.42% turnout

    Insulting the majority of these voters is exactly why leave won, and you still do not get it
    Leave won because leavers voted for a mess of pottage. No insults were necessary (and none made, as far as I can remember).
    Nope Leave won because they offered hope to a cross section of the population while Remain offered them little more than minimum wage work if they were lucky and a foreigner didn't get it first.
    As I said, a mess of pottage.

    The bit about Remain offering minimum wage work “if they were lucky”, and foreigners taking their jobs bears no resemblance to actual employment stats pre 2016.
    Don't look at it from your eyes, as I posted on the day look at it as a single parent on an estate in Leyland who was expecting to get a job in the new Aldi. Then when it opened everyone was an Eastern European no-one knew.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,307

    I had 3 moderna.... looks like it is shit against O-Mike-Ron....woophie.

    Does it?

    I haven't seen any data saying that.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 14,101
    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Nigelb said:

    I don’t understand “Plan B” at all.

    The dampening measures (WFH) won’t make much difference, given Omicron infectiousness.

    The vaxport measures are so limited that I can’t see them incentivising a single anti-vaxxer into getting vaccinated.

    Are we Plan B-ing to:
    a) buy time for more boosters?
    b) squash demand on the NHS?
    c) both?

    And whether a, b, or c - what are the relevant predicted metrics that we are trying to achieve?

    It is too easy to call out “dead cat”, but it does appear Boris rushed ahead with yesterday’s announcement to the surprise of colleagues, and he clearly hasn’t taken the parliamentary party with him.

    The only case I can make for it is that the announcement of government measures like this prompts people inclined to be cautious to be more so. But I have no idea how great that effect might be.
    The vaxports - particularly in view of the end Jan sunset clause - seem a bureaucratic waste of time.
    Also, did they get rid of that compulsory isolation upon contact with an Omicrone?

    Because if not; the country will be paralysis come the New Year.
    Still there....
    Nope. Replaced by daily testing.
    OK. Was still there on the BBC primer this morning. Sigh!
    Yeah it was a a major change that barely got a mention.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 14,572
    edited December 2021
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Roger said:

    As I understand it Shropshire is culturally and geographically miles from the Red Wall Brexiteer thickos so there has to be at least a possibility Johnson's lot will come third

    Shropshire voted 104,166 to leave and 78,897 to remain on a 77.42% turnout

    Insulting the majority of these voters is exactly why leave won, and you still do not get it
    Leave won because leavers voted for a mess of pottage. No insults were necessary (and none made, as far as I can remember).
    Nope Leave won because they offered hope to a cross section of the population while Remain offered them little more than minimum wage work if they were lucky and a foreigner didn't get it first.
    As I said, a mess of pottage.

    The bit about Remain offering minimum wage work “if they were lucky”, and foreigners taking their jobs bears no resemblance to actual employment stats pre 2016.
    Don't look at it from your eyes, as I posted on the day look at it as a single parent on an estate in Leyland who was expecting to get a job in the new Aldi. Then when it opened everyone was an Eastern European no-one knew.
    Sure I accept that.

    Or even, from the eyes of an elderly pensioner who *heard* about a single parent who was hoping to get a job in Aldi.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,269

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    eek said:

    Leave won because they offered hope to a cross section of the population

    They offered bullshit.

    And people lapped it up
    And in that bullshit featuring everyone's personal unicorn was the hope that allowed Leave to win.

    That's the thing Boris has a problem with at the next election - he can't offer a better future because he's already binned levelling up.
    The plan is now tax “cuts” instead.
    Love to know how that will work.

    2% off income tax will just about make up for the 1.25% on NI.

    And cutting VAT won't result in price cuts because inflation will consume it in months - so most shops won't do a thing on prices and take the short term profit.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,274
    An interesting example for Mr Johnson et al:

    "As the row has engulfed the Prime Minister and his advisers, Westminster magistrates court has been quietly prosecuting people who broke the rules last Christmas, including those caught meeting on December 18 – the day of the alleged Downing Street party."

    .......

    "Prosecutions - under the government’s Health Protection regulations - have been conducted since September last year in London through the Single Justice Procedure, dealt with in behind-closed-doors hearings by a magistrate."

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/covid19-rules-downing-street-party-westminster-magistrates-court-police-b970925.html
  • Andy_JS said:

    Roger said:

    As I understand it Shropshire is culturally and geographically miles from the Red Wall Brexiteer thickos so there has to be at least a possibility Johnson's lot will come third

    North Shropshire is almost next door to Newcastle-under-Lyme, one of the archetypal Red Wall seats. It's also adjacent to Wrexham.
    When changing career paths, I did secondary school teaching practice on a PGCE in Market Drayton a couple of decades back, commuting over from home in the West Midlands. Many children lived on farms ("what use is Pythagoras to milking a cow, Sir?") and for those who didn't have farming parents, the dominant local employer was the factory turning milk into Muller yoghurts etc. where many ended up.

    And that's the part of the constituency closest to Stoke and the Black Country.

    Not a Red Wall seat. The place is basically a farming constituency. Geographical proximity isn't really relevant.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 14,572
    eek said:

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    eek said:

    Leave won because they offered hope to a cross section of the population

    They offered bullshit.

    And people lapped it up
    And in that bullshit featuring everyone's personal unicorn was the hope that allowed Leave to win.

    That's the thing Boris has a problem with at the next election - he can't offer a better future because he's already binned levelling up.
    The plan is now tax “cuts” instead.
    Love to know how that will work.

    2% off income tax will just about make up for the 1.25% on NI.

    And cutting VAT won't result in price cuts because inflation will consume it in months - so most shops won't do a thing on prices and take the short term profit.
    That’s why I put cuts in speech marks.

    It’s incredibly cynical, but up until this month the usual suspects (Telegraph etc) showed every sign of going along with it.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398

    Labour should be trying to keep him in the cabinet, not get him to resign.
    Raab resigns because of the Kabul evacuation mess. Mogg resigns because of the loans not declared. And The early January vote of confidence removes Johnson. It’s just a question in which order they go in.
    Raab. What I saw of the committee, I think they say yes we got 15K out, but was it the right 15K, or a shambles operation didn’t get enough of the right people out? Judges, media assistants, interpreters, now shot getting shot, because although difficult and confusing on ground in Kabul, is was unnecessary chaotic and confused, late to the game, unplanned, undermanned and slow back in London, the operation too easily pulled this way that way by various lobbying, like news organisations, and making different types of lists confusing the effort.

    So yeah, it’s looking like this will become seen a big enough scandal for a top resignation. Remember, fish rot from the head, that’s why those in charge have to carry the can sometimes.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,572

    eek said:

    eek said:

    Roger said:

    As I understand it Shropshire is culturally and geographically miles from the Red Wall Brexiteer thickos so there has to be at least a possibility Johnson's lot will come third

    Shropshire voted 104,166 to leave and 78,897 to remain on a 77.42% turnout

    Insulting the majority of these voters is exactly why leave won, and you still do not get it
    Leave won because leavers voted for a mess of pottage. No insults were necessary (and none made, as far as I can remember).
    Nope Leave won because they offered hope to a cross section of the population while Remain offered them little more than minimum wage work if they were lucky and a foreigner didn't get it first.
    As I said, a mess of pottage.

    The bit about Remain offering minimum wage work “if they were lucky”, and foreigners taking their jobs bears no resemblance to actual employment stats pre 2016.
    Don't look at it from your eyes, as I posted on the day look at it as a single parent on an estate in Leyland who was expecting to get a job in the new Aldi. Then when it opened everyone was an Eastern European no-one knew.
    Sure I accept that.

    Or even, from the eyes of an elderly pensioner who *heard* about a single parent who was hoping to get a job in Aldi.
    The only places round here that were entirely East European (or similar) staffed were hand car-washes and Polish delicatessens.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 14,572

    Andy_JS said:

    Roger said:

    As I understand it Shropshire is culturally and geographically miles from the Red Wall Brexiteer thickos so there has to be at least a possibility Johnson's lot will come third

    North Shropshire is almost next door to Newcastle-under-Lyme, one of the archetypal Red Wall seats. It's also adjacent to Wrexham.
    “what use is Pythagoras to milking a cow, Sir?"
    What was the answer?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,602
    Even if the Lib Dems win, it proves nothing. Johnson's Conservative party has been utterly discredited, and the Lib Dems have always been heavy favourites for this seat.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 7,584

    Covid Summary

    - Cases up, but still steady in the over 50s
    - Admissions up
    - Deaths may be levelling off.

    That’s hard to second guess. But I don’t find this years lockdown rules too draconian yet, my Christmas plans can work with them.

    Meanwhile Off topic. One further question about Something with Nationalism I don’t understand?

    Has the Nation State always existed? Did it begin with the Franks? Or begin more recently with early 19th.C thinkers, like Hegel? Or?

    At what point if any in human history were your “the no such thing as nation state whack jobs” actually right?
    Which came first - the nation or the state? Do states form nations or visa versa. Wales is a nation but it’s history as s state is patchy at best. Scotland and England are nations and were states too for roughly a millennium. The Roman Empire was a State but not a nation, similarly the USSR. Is India a nation or a patchwork of nations formed into a state - ditto Italy? Czechoslovakia was a state made out of two nations - or was it a nation? Is Britain a nation or just an increasingly unloved state?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,150
    rcs1000 said:

    I had 3 moderna.... looks like it is shit against O-Mike-Ron....woophie.

    Does it?

    I haven't seen any data saying that.
    A small study showed two doses of Moderna had a 50 fold reduction in antibody binding efficiency but the sample size was absolutely tiny.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,307
    Endillion said:

    Even if the Lib Dems win, it proves nothing. Johnson's Conservative party has been utterly discredited, and the Lib Dems have always been heavy favourites for this seat.

    Have the LDs "always" been heavy favourites?
  • eekeek Posts: 20,269

    Labour should be trying to keep him in the cabinet, not get him to resign.
    Raab resigns because of the Kabul evacuation mess. Mogg resigns because of the loans not declared. And The early January vote of confidence removes Johnson. It’s just a question in which order they go in.
    Raab. What I saw of the committee, I think they say yes we got 15K out, but was it the right 15K, or a shambles operation didn’t get enough of the right people out? Judges, media assistants, interpreters, now shot getting shot, because although difficult and confusing on ground in Kabul, is was unnecessary chaotic and confused, late to the game, unplanned, undermanned and slow back in London, the operation too easily pulled this way that way by various lobbying, like news organisations, and making different types of lists confusing the effort.

    So yeah, it’s looking like this will become seen a big enough scandal for a top resignation. Remember, fish rot from the head, that’s why those in charge have to carry the can sometimes.
    Raab has already changed department so I can see Boris going - well he's no longer the Foreign Secretary what are you talking about.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 3,034
    Scott_xP said:

    Exclusive: Michael Gove is self-isolating after the Aussie Deputy PM got Covid. They met on Monday.

    Means THREE Cabinet ministers are now self-isolating: Gove, Raab, Shapps. Details in here:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/12/09/boris-johnson-news-plan-b-downing-street-christmas-party/

    Fortunately, they can still appear on TV to defend Boris via Zoom etc.

    What's that you say, Michael? Your internet connection has been taken out by Storm Arwen and won't be back until the new year? How inconvenient.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 29,874
    algarkirk said:

    kinabalu said:

    You not hedging that now @MikeSmithson?

    As for me, better than evens on the Cons holding a seat with such a big margin just 2 years ago is very tempting but something is stopping me. Going to sit it out.

    I'm sitting this out for now. It's one of those where you feel there is a very decent price available on someone based on all the evidence, but you can't decide which it is.

    I.e, the odds are very favourable for the Tories as they are bound to hold such a safe seat.

    The odds are generous for the LDs given that the Tories are in terminal meltdown as we speak.

    The odds are amazing for Labour as they are the challenger in second place in a seat that is theirs for the taking given the multiple pileup that is the Tories, and there is precisely zero data suggesting they are not the challenger now.

    Tough business betting.
    Indeed. 'No Bet' is an essential tool in the box for any serious punter. I tend to like to bet against momentum but sometimes it goes the other way. A big change happens in politics and what everyone does is underestimate the speed and size of it. I smell that here but I don't smell it strong enough to start dong lots of anti Con bets. It's still for me a better than 50% chance they're still in power after the next election. Not miles better though. I wouldn't go shorter than 4/5.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 14,410
    edited December 2021

    Andy_JS said:

    Roger said:

    As I understand it Shropshire is culturally and geographically miles from the Red Wall Brexiteer thickos so there has to be at least a possibility Johnson's lot will come third

    North Shropshire is almost next door to Newcastle-under-Lyme, one of the archetypal Red Wall seats. It's also adjacent to Wrexham.
    When changing career paths, I did secondary school teaching practice on a PGCE in Market Drayton a couple of decades back, commuting over from home in the West Midlands. Many children lived on farms ("what use is Pythagoras to milking a cow, Sir?") and for those who didn't have farming parents, the dominant local employer was the factory turning milk into Muller yoghurts etc. where many ended up.

    And that's the part of the constituency closest to Stoke and the Black Country.

    Not a Red Wall seat. The place is basically a farming constituency. Geographical proximity isn't really relevant.
    The Pythagoras answer is easy for a start.

    How much grass does a cow need, and how many can you get in that field?

    How do you make it square?

    Your homework is to draw up a map of the fields on your farm, Young McDonald.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,172

    Andy_JS said:

    Roger said:

    As I understand it Shropshire is culturally and geographically miles from the Red Wall Brexiteer thickos so there has to be at least a possibility Johnson's lot will come third

    North Shropshire is almost next door to Newcastle-under-Lyme, one of the archetypal Red Wall seats. It's also adjacent to Wrexham.
    Adjacent, but Wrexham (town) especially is a million miles off. That said, the LDs had better hope everyone's on the same page about Brexit being done and dusted.

    I think this is a new sub-section of Tory seat to waver - Brexity Shire Tory since forever.
    I am unconvinced that Brexit is relevant any longer. It is decided. What matters now is the How and the How we end up. Johnson's Tories are onto a loser on both these counts.

    Combined with that is the traditional Conservative feeling of fair play and decency. So a better label for this kind of sear is Traditional Decent Conservative seat. And I think there are quite a lot of them around.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,572
    edited December 2021

    Andy_JS said:

    Roger said:

    As I understand it Shropshire is culturally and geographically miles from the Red Wall Brexiteer thickos so there has to be at least a possibility Johnson's lot will come third

    North Shropshire is almost next door to Newcastle-under-Lyme, one of the archetypal Red Wall seats. It's also adjacent to Wrexham.
    “what use is Pythagoras to milking a cow, Sir?"
    What was the answer?
    Eldest son at secondary school in S Essex had a course in rural studies. I would have thought the basics of motor engineering would have been far more practical use, but there you go.
    There was however, a 'win'. One of the pigs was slaughtered and th meat sold to those of the parents of that years class who wanted it. And very good it was, too.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,720
    IshmaelZ said:

    Roger said:

    As I understand it Shropshire is culturally and geographically miles from the Red Wall Brexiteer thickos so there has to be at least a possibility Johnson's lot will come third

    Very rural, humongously Leave

    I was at prep school there. It is the setting for Blandings Castle in PG Wodehouse and you can see why

    https://www.shropshirestar.com/news/politics/2016/06/24/eu-referendum-result-shropshire-votes-leave/
    The towns nearest Blandings Castle are Bridgnorth, Shifnal and Albrighton (see Pig-hoo-o-o-o-ey!)

    So, it is either in the constituency of Ludlow or The Wrekin.

    But, do tell us more about your prep school days? Were you repeatedly beaten for your mistakes?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 14,572
    edited December 2021
    The lies and scandals are so numerous right now, that some are going by without mention.

    For example, Paul Dacre literally admits in the Spectator this week that Boris *did* try to rig the Ofcom job for him.

    Something we all knew of course, but which Dowden insisted was not true.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,075

    Covid Summary

    - Cases up, but still steady in the over 50s
    - Admissions up
    - Deaths may be levelling off.

    That’s hard to second guess. But I don’t find this years lockdown rules too draconian yet, my Christmas plans can work with them.

    Meanwhile Off topic. One further question about Something with Nationalism I don’t understand?

    Has the Nation State always existed? Did it begin with the Franks? Or begin more recently with early 19th.C thinkers, like Hegel? Or?

    At what point if any in human history were your “the no such thing as nation state whack jobs” actually right?
    There have been no homogenous ethnic states in human history, with no significant minorities.

    The latest comedy is the attempt by the Chinese state to pretend that everyone vaguely Chinese is a plastic pastiche of Pure Han Chinese. Which itself is a comic concept. Sort of like Pure English.

    "The no nation state" types remind me of the people who claim that political system X has never been implemented because all the examples are.... impure.

    Impure....

    IKAAAAAAAARRAAAA!
  • eek said:

    Can Boris actually be enjoying his job? My impression has for some time been that he’s clinging on for dear life for covid to pass so he can steer us all into the sunlit uplands and go back to jaunty buffoonery whilst everyone laughs and calls him a card.

    I struggle to see what motivates him now (beyond the pursuit of personal popularity which is well known). Brown and May had torrid times in office, but they were kept going at least in part by a sense of duty.

    That very lack of a strong moral compass has lead him to the precipice now. He has for some time been known to take a hands off approach to management, allowing underlings to do what they will. Fine if you’re surrounded by competent, managerial types. Less so when you’re surrounded by opportunists and chancers.

    Being Boris he probably wants to leave office on a high note, but is there any chance of that now?

    TSE claimed last week that Boris basically has dates he wishes to pass for various reasons (August 2022 to pass May, sometime in 2026 to pass Cameron).

    It's the bit I don't get, you've done Brexit, we've gone through Covid surely Boris would want to leave on high (any level of high) and earn real money.
    Ego.

    He's had a rivalry with Dave going back decades.

    Dave got a first, Boris did not.

    (It'd be August/September 2025 to overtake Dave.)

    Ultimately, his entire life has been about becoming PM, he doesn't want it to be fleeting. One person who knows him well says the reason he won't give Scotland indyref2 on his watch? If Scotland votes Yes, then that, not Brexit will be the first line of Boris Johnson's obituary, and his ego won't allow him to sit out indyref2, in the way Dave let the Scots get on with it in indyref2.
    So, England’s stuck with an incompetent buffoon as PM cos Johnson’s worried about his obituary?
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