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How much of the GRN vote will LAB get at the election itself? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Omnium said:

    IshmaelZ said:


    I am genuinely uncertain that we ended up with the lesser of two evils in Dec 2019. He really is that bad.

    Corbyn would have had different problems. He would have depended on people who would have thought he was never being quite left-wing enough - "a disappointment", people like McCluskey would have said soon enough. There would have been an instant selloff of sterling and the financial markets, though they'd have found their level eventually. The alliance with the US would have gone into the deepest of freezes.

    On the other hand, he'd have done a free trade deal with the EU and saved endless bickering. He'd have been steady on the pandemic, doing much the same but without constantly trying to make endearing pledges like "saving Christmas". And he's rigidly honest and I doubt if he's thrown a wild party in his life, and certainly not while urging the opposite on other people. Being boringly austere is not usually popular, but there are times when it's a good thing.
    NP - you're just about my favourite poster on PB.

    I really think that your loyalty to Corbyn is massively misplaced. He's a bad man, and you certainly aren't.

    I'm a Tory, but if there is to be a Labour government again then it'll need people like you, behind the scenes perhaps, making it work. I've no idea what sort of madness causes you, a sensible person, to ally yourself with a nutter, but please, please get out of that.
    Nick's a good man, but he's a Red and that's tribal.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 10,078
    edited December 2021

    The Mail includes the telling detail that this fake "press conference" was in the £2.6 million "briefing room, that has now been ditched."

    That's the kind of detail that really matters to people, because it feeds the growing sense of arrogance. Decadence.

    Actually it’s been converted into some kind of personal cinema for the PM and Carrie.

    Although when this news came out were assured by the usual suspects that the red wall did not begrudge the great helmsman a bit of “House of Gucci” on the big screen.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,175
    And one of the possible consequences? Senior Tory MP Charles Walker says 'The No 10 party means that any future lockdowns will be advisory, whatever the law says'
    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1468322196347142144
  • Broadcasters ban the term 'BAME': BBC, ITV and Channel 4 vow to stop using term because it ignores 'complex lived experiences'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10285189/BBC-ITV-Channel-4-vow-stop-using-term-BAME-ignores-complex-lived-experiences.html
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,467
    edited December 2021
    He paologised straight off ... and not his dinner party either. But not a good look.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 1,567

    One good thing from Partygate: no more lockdowns.

    The public will just tell the lying git to sod off.

    If Omicron really is as transmissible as some are fearing a lockdown will make sod all difference anyway. What was R during the last one? 0.8 or thereabouts?

    We're back to the original Plan A (March 2020), whether we like it or not.
    Yep. Irrespective of the balance between wanting an end to Covid crap and the endless impositions upon our liberties, and the concerns that many of us will harbour for the health of others or ourselves, if this disease becomes sufficiently infectious then nothing will stop it - and there may come a point when it begins to dawn on people that there's no point in even trying anymore.

    No amount of working from home, doing nose swabs and diddling about with blue paper masks is going to change the fact that many people will have to set foot in hospitals, even more will still be forced to do all those jobs that cannot be done sat in front of a computer, and most of the adult population will have to go out regularly to do essential shopping. If we can't rely on vaccines to finally put an end to all of this, then we're going to end up relying on evolution instead.
  • Jonathan said:

    It’s hard to know who is worse; Boris, his administration or those that continue to support and defend him.

    The Tory MPs who enabled him and continue to do so are the worst. Boris has been consistent his whole life. Your average Tory voter does not understand how bad he is. Tory MPs knew it when they put him through to the members.
    To be fair, lots of MPs knew that, hence the unsuccessful attempts to keep him off the final ballot.

    You'd have to be a knave or a fool to have been an MP who backed him from the off.

    Like Sunak did.

    Sunak, Rishi; Jenrick, Robert; Dowden, Oliver (5 June 2019). "The Tories are in deep peril. Only Boris Johnson can save us". The Times.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,232
    BigRich said:

    darkage said:

    pigeon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    If omicron requires another lockdown, Boris Johnson is no longer in a position to demand it.
    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1468317198963855360

    Fair. Then again, is anybody else?

    The prospect of relief through vaccination was the only thing that made that massive lockdown that started about a year ago bearable. If there's another one, the only conclusion is that lockdowns will go on in cycles forever. At which point, why bother to comply? Far better to roll the dice than to live like that.
    Sort of relevant but mask compliance on the train today was low - about 50%. I get the feeling that people don't take the threat seriously. Perhaps they are resigned to taking their chances with whatever new Covid strain there is.

    If there is a virus that kills children rather than the old / unvaccinated, then maybe people would look at the situation differently.
    It might also be partly that the the people most worried about getting coved, who are most likely to where masks all the time when out, have decided not to take the train?
    Been out with clients in town tonight. Every pub was packed despite the awful weather. Not a single spare seat in the wine bar we ended up in. London is very dovish. Other areas vary, apparently.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,232
    IshmaelZ said:

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Just catching up. Ouch. In normal times someone would be toast, but no doubt the troops will rally round to their ‘winner’.

    It depends if the police become involved and if so to what extent.

    If they lay charges against Boris I think at that point he'll have to go.
    If they do there will be a sizeable number of people who will side with him. Everyone hates the regulations and many will have flouted them. Indeed everyone will have flouted them at some point and to some degree.
    Indeed.
    No Indeed about it because they are his bloody regulations. Unless you think they were imposed on him against his will by Ther Science or something?
    No not at all. I agree with you!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,467
    edited December 2021
    Scott_xP said:

    And one of the possible consequences? Senior Tory MP Charles Walker says 'The No 10 party means that any future lockdowns will be advisory, whatever the law says'
    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1468322196347142144

    That's what he hopes.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-restrictions-protest-charles-walker-milk-b1822678.html
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 13,107
    Somehow I can't get massively worked up about the probably not quite illegal Christmas party. I am much more angry that Johnson pulled rank to get dogs out of Kabul at the expense of the lives of those working for British forces.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,638
    isam said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Surely this all pivots on whether Boris was there?

    Do we know? (honest question, I've been driving all day)

    If he was present then yes it is very bad. If he wasn't he will escape again. If Carrie was there - but not the PM - he will survive, but will take on yet more damage

    The claim in the Mirror stories are that no he didn't attend what appears to have been regular knees up. There was some drinks for a senior civil servant leaving, where he came in, gave a short speech and left.

    The problem is a) did he know / encourage them and b) he has clearly lied about them.
    Quiz? Secret Santa? I used to work in the civil service (or more precisely in a quango still very much marked by the CS ethos) and I can never remember those in a leaving do.
    From the Mirror report....

    The Prime Minister gave a speech at a packed leaving do for a top aide last November when the country was in the grip of its second lockdown...Then just days before Christmas, with London in tier 3 restrictions, members of his top team held their own festive bash in Downing Street. Officials knocked back glasses of wine during a Christmas quiz and a Secret Santa while the rest of the country was forced to stay at home....But the leaving do still took place on November 27 while the unofficial Christmas bash, which the PM did not attend, happened on December 18.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-broke-covid-lockdown-25585238

    As I say, I can definitely see old Boris saying while I couldn't possibly attend such an event, if one was to happen, I never heard about it....
    When did the pubs have to close last year? I would have sworn I was in one in early Dec, as was going to arrange a birthday drink, but they told us lockdown was looming
    Here’s the timeline - the restrictions seem to have been announced the day after the No 10 party, the 19th, and imposed on the 21st

    I guess it all depends what the restrictions were on the 18th

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/timeline-lockdown-web.pdf
  • Scott_xP said:

    And one of the possible consequences? Senior Tory MP Charles Walker says 'The No 10 party means that any future lockdowns will be advisory, whatever the law says'
    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1468322196347142144

    Like Charles Walker would have respected a lockdown in other circumstances. 😂

    I agree any future lockdown would be advisory, but I already thought that before this story broke.
  • Has Nick ever addressed Jeremy as Comrade?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,287
    edited December 2021
    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Just catching up. Ouch. In normal times someone would be toast, but no doubt the troops will rally round to their ‘winner’.

    It depends if the police become involved and if so to what extent.

    If they lay charges against Boris I think at that point he'll have to go.
    If they do there will be a sizeable number of people who will side with him. Everyone hates the regulations and many will have flouted them. Indeed everyone will have flouted them at some point and to some degree.
    Just you and @DavidL I think. Boris Johnson and his unfair regulations applying to Boris Johnson..
  • Jonathan said:

    It’s hard to know who is worse; Boris, his administration or those that continue to support and defend him.

    The Tory MPs who enabled him and continue to do so are the worst. Boris has been consistent his whole life. Your average Tory voter does not understand how bad he is. Tory MPs knew it when they put him through to the members.
    To be fair, lots of MPs knew that, hence the unsuccessful attempts to keep him off the final ballot.

    You'd have to be a knave or a fool to have been an MP who backed him from the off.

    Like Sunak did.

    Sunak, Rishi; Jenrick, Robert; Dowden, Oliver (5 June 2019). "The Tories are in deep peril. Only Boris Johnson can save us". The Times.
    Indeed, I am referring specifically to those who enabled him. Plenty of more honourable Tory MPs, and indeed sadly, several ex-Tory MPs who tried their best to stop it happening.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 10,078
    edited December 2021

    Jonathan said:

    It’s hard to know who is worse; Boris, his administration or those that continue to support and defend him.

    The Tory MPs who enabled him and continue to do so are the worst. Boris has been consistent his whole life. Your average Tory voter does not understand how bad he is. Tory MPs knew it when they put him through to the members.
    To be fair, lots of MPs knew that, hence the unsuccessful attempts to keep him off the final ballot.

    You'd have to be a knave or a fool to have been an MP who backed him from the off.

    Like Sunak did.

    Sunak, Rishi; Jenrick, Robert; Dowden, Oliver (5 June 2019). "The Tories are in deep peril. Only Boris Johnson can save us". The Times.
    Yes. Sunak appears to be quite polished..

    But his support for - in turn - Brexit, Boris and the Barrington Declaration suggests he is a menace.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,541

    Omnium said:

    IshmaelZ said:


    I am genuinely uncertain that we ended up with the lesser of two evils in Dec 2019. He really is that bad.

    Corbyn would have had different problems. He would have depended on people who would have thought he was never being quite left-wing enough - "a disappointment", people like McCluskey would have said soon enough. There would have been an instant selloff of sterling and the financial markets, though they'd have found their level eventually. The alliance with the US would have gone into the deepest of freezes.

    On the other hand, he'd have done a free trade deal with the EU and saved endless bickering. He'd have been steady on the pandemic, doing much the same but without constantly trying to make endearing pledges like "saving Christmas". And he's rigidly honest and I doubt if he's thrown a wild party in his life, and certainly not while urging the opposite on other people. Being boringly austere is not usually popular, but there are times when it's a good thing.
    NP - you're just about my favourite poster on PB.

    I really think that your loyalty to Corbyn is massively misplaced. He's a bad man, and you certainly aren't.

    I'm a Tory, but if there is to be a Labour government again then it'll need people like you, behind the scenes perhaps, making it work. I've no idea what sort of madness causes you, a sensible person, to ally yourself with a nutter, but please, please get out of that.
    Nick's a good man, but he's a Red and that's tribal.
    Dr Nick has charted a very strange journey through the years on PB from Tony Blair cheerleader to Jezza cheerleader (via El Gord and Red Ed)

    Mind I've noticed even he doesn't even bother to spin for SKS lol! ;)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,081
    Friend of mine recently revealed she spent a teenage Summer depressed because a boy she had met travelling didn't come to California to meet her as promised.
    She consoled herself by spending a lot of time hanging out with the nice hippies at the house down the street.
    It was the Manson family.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,425

    I think it’s clear that almost nobody strictly adhered to lockdown rules. No surprise there. What does stick in the craw is Boris and his hectoring buddies lecturing the public while enjoying a good old screw themselves.

    I suspect you're wrong on this. I think most people (i.e. over half) adhered to lockdown rules, not 'almost nobody', last winter. The silent majority are pretty obedient. And even more people adhered to lockdown rules in Spring 2020. Adherence may not have been perfect (for example, people left the house more than once a day), but not far off. Though of course I agree with your second point.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 941
    Good timing for the NS by-election.

    Conveniently for Boris that also means the news cycle will move on from Friday, one way or the other.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 17,081

    Broadcasters ban the term 'BAME': BBC, ITV and Channel 4 vow to stop using term because it ignores 'complex lived experiences'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10285189/BBC-ITV-Channel-4-vow-stop-using-term-BAME-ignores-complex-lived-experiences.html

    The Numerous Sages of old Camden Town were right.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,738
    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Just catching up. Ouch. In normal times someone would be toast, but no doubt the troops will rally round to their ‘winner’.

    It depends if the police become involved and if so to what extent.

    If they lay charges against Boris I think at that point he'll have to go.
    If they do there will be a sizeable number of people who will side with him. Everyone hates the regulations and many will have flouted them. Indeed everyone will have flouted them at some point and to some degree.
    Just you and @DavidL I think. Boris Johnson and his unfair regulations applying to Boris Johnson..
    Can't offhand think of any time David has flouted Covid regs?
  • Jonathan said:

    It’s hard to know who is worse; Boris, his administration or those that continue to support and defend him.

    The Tory MPs who enabled him and continue to do so are the worst. Boris has been consistent his whole life. Your average Tory voter does not understand how bad he is. Tory MPs knew it when they put him through to the members.
    To be fair, lots of MPs knew that, hence the unsuccessful attempts to keep him off the final ballot.

    You'd have to be a knave or a fool to have been an MP who backed him from the off.

    Like Sunak did.

    Sunak, Rishi; Jenrick, Robert; Dowden, Oliver (5 June 2019). "The Tories are in deep peril. Only Boris Johnson can save us". The Times.
    Except they were right. Boris turned around the Conservatives from winning 8% in a national election and 10% behind Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party in the opinion polls to winning an 80 seat majority.

    Fantastic job, well done. When Boris's time is done he can be replaced, but he's already achieved something.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,287

    Jonathan said:

    It’s hard to know who is worse; Boris, his administration or those that continue to support and defend him.

    The Tory MPs who enabled him and continue to do so are the worst. Boris has been consistent his whole life. Your average Tory voter does not understand how bad he is. Tory MPs knew it when they put him through to the members.
    To be fair, lots of MPs knew that, hence the unsuccessful attempts to keep him off the final ballot.

    You'd have to be a knave or a fool to have been an MP who backed him from the off.

    Like Sunak did.

    Sunak, Rishi; Jenrick, Robert; Dowden, Oliver (5 June 2019). "The Tories are in deep peril. Only Boris Johnson can save us". The Times.
    Yes. Sunak appears to be quite polished..

    But his support for - in turn - Brexit, Boris and the Barrington Declaration suggest he is a menace.
    Sunak's the most Thatcherite leadership candidate of the lot. Definitely to the right of Truss, Javid economically.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:

    It’s hard to know who is worse; Boris, his administration or those that continue to support and defend him.

    The Tory MPs who enabled him and continue to do so are the worst. Boris has been consistent his whole life. Your average Tory voter does not understand how bad he is. Tory MPs knew it when they put him through to the members.
    To be fair, lots of MPs knew that, hence the unsuccessful attempts to keep him off the final ballot.

    You'd have to be a knave or a fool to have been an MP who backed him from the off.

    Like Sunak did.

    Sunak, Rishi; Jenrick, Robert; Dowden, Oliver (5 June 2019). "The Tories are in deep peril. Only Boris Johnson can save us". The Times.
    Yes. Sunak appears to be quite polished..

    But his support for - in turn - Brexit, Boris and the Barrington Declaration suggest he is a menace.
    Sunak's the most Thatcherite leadership candidate of the lot. Definitely to the right of Truss, Javid economically.
    Yes his tax rises really demonstrate that.

    If he's so Thatcherite how about some tax cuts, starting with reversing the NI tax rise.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,480
    edited December 2021

    Broadcasters ban the term 'BAME': BBC, ITV and Channel 4 vow to stop using term because it ignores 'complex lived experiences'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10285189/BBC-ITV-Channel-4-vow-stop-using-term-BAME-ignores-complex-lived-experiences.html

    I'm astonished it was ever accepted in the first place. You have to think really hard to find an explanation why classifying people as white or BAME is a natural thing to do, but black or WAME is not.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,232
    Carnyx said:

    He paologised straight off ... and not his dinner party either. But not a good look.
    Oh don’t get me wrong, I’m not accusing him of any hypocrisy. It’s minor stuff. I’m just challenging Nick’s ludicrous idea that Corbo is some sort of hair shirted angel.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 69,287
    edited December 2021
    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TOPPING said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Just catching up. Ouch. In normal times someone would be toast, but no doubt the troops will rally round to their ‘winner’.

    It depends if the police become involved and if so to what extent.

    If they lay charges against Boris I think at that point he'll have to go.
    If they do there will be a sizeable number of people who will side with him. Everyone hates the regulations and many will have flouted them. Indeed everyone will have flouted them at some point and to some degree.
    Just you and @DavidL I think. Boris Johnson and his unfair regulations applying to Boris Johnson..
    Can't offhand think of any time David has flouted Covid regs?
    I took the main thrust of the para to be siding with Boris, not flouting the covid regs.

    @DavidL There is so much this government can be criticised for but this is just silly
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 1,518

    They were here. Where’s Big G and HYUFD gone? Has anyone seen the Odd Couple?

    What’s the point of a spin team if they are always hiding in the kitchen at parties?

    I have just posted
    Welcome back.

    But I do apologies, I got a bit excited remembering I am on Libdems at 3-1 and this is a difficult period to get the vote out.
  • EXCLUSIVE: Former Education Secretary Gavin Williamson broke Covid rules by holding a festive party at work in the run up to last Christmas.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1468326524638142472
  • eekeek Posts: 17,293
    TimS said:

    Good timing for the NS by-election.

    Conveniently for Boris that also means the news cycle will move on from Friday, one way or the other.

    From a week Friday not this week
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,396

    I think it’s clear that almost nobody strictly adhered to lockdown rules. No surprise there. What does stick in the craw is Boris and his hectoring buddies lecturing the public while enjoying a good old screw themselves.

    I suspect you're wrong on this. I think most people (i.e. over half) adhered to lockdown rules, not 'almost nobody', last winter. The silent majority are pretty obedient. And even more people adhered to lockdown rules in Spring 2020. Adherence may not have been perfect (for example, people left the house more than once a day), but not far off. Though of course I agree with your second point.
    There were huge personal sacrifices I know of, too many to mention. This whole lot need chucking out.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 5,221
    edited December 2021
    Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:

    It’s hard to know who is worse; Boris, his administration or those that continue to support and defend him.

    The Tory MPs who enabled him and continue to do so are the worst. Boris has been consistent his whole life. Your average Tory voter does not understand how bad he is. Tory MPs knew it when they put him through to the members.
    To be fair, lots of MPs knew that, hence the unsuccessful attempts to keep him off the final ballot.

    You'd have to be a knave or a fool to have been an MP who backed him from the off.

    Like Sunak did.

    Sunak, Rishi; Jenrick, Robert; Dowden, Oliver (5 June 2019). "The Tories are in deep peril. Only Boris Johnson can save us". The Times.
    Yes. Sunak appears to be quite polished..

    But his support for - in turn - Brexit, Boris and the Barrington Declaration suggest he is a menace.
    Sunak's the most Thatcherite leadership candidate of the lot. Definitely to the right of Truss, Javid economically.
    John Redwood with the voice and manner of Tony Blair, and off-duty clothes sense of Jamie Oliver.
  • EXCLUSIVE: Former Education Secretary Gavin Williamson broke Covid rules by holding a festive party at work in the run up to last Christmas.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1468326524638142472

    Least surprising news.....his excuse is that he is definitely too thick to understand the rules.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,541

    EXCLUSIVE: Former Education Secretary Gavin Williamson broke Covid rules by holding a festive party at work in the run up to last Christmas.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1468326524638142472

    It's a wonder he actually has enough friends to be able to throw a "party" with...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,232

    I think it’s clear that almost nobody strictly adhered to lockdown rules. No surprise there. What does stick in the craw is Boris and his hectoring buddies lecturing the public while enjoying a good old screw themselves.

    I suspect you're wrong on this. I think most people (i.e. over half) adhered to lockdown rules, not 'almost nobody', last winter. The silent majority are pretty obedient. And even more people adhered to lockdown rules in Spring 2020. Adherence may not have been perfect (for example, people left the house more than once a day), but not far off. Though of course I agree with your second point.
    Actually, you make my point for me!

    If adherence wasn’t perfect, it wasn’t adherence. And many would have breached rules without knowing *

    * this included my mum, who is the most rule-abiding person ever. She broke the group exercise rule almost every day, by going for walks with her friend, who said they were in a “bubble”. They weren’t. Indeed it was impossible for them to be in a bubble under the rules.
  • As millions of children faced the misery of Christmas under strict Covid rules, ex-Education Secretary Gavin Williamson threw a party.

    London was in Tier 2 – which banned any social mixing between households – on December 10 last year when up to two dozen of Mr Williamson’s staff gathered in the Department for Education cafe for “drinks and canapes”.

    The former Cabinet minister delivered a short speech at the evening event before officials and ministers knocked back glasses of wine.

    One source said: “There were lots of people gathered in the cafe area, mingling and drinking wine. It was just so reckless”.

    Another added: “He hosted a drinks do when people were considering whether they could spend Christmas with their families.”

    Tonight the DfE did not deny Covid rules had been broken and admitted “it would have been better” not to have held the event while the rest of the country was banned from doing so.

  • darkagedarkage Posts: 1,257
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Surely this all pivots on whether Boris was there?

    Do we know? (honest question, I've been driving all day)

    If he was present then yes it is very bad. If he wasn't he will escape again. If Carrie was there - but not the PM - he will survive, but will take on yet more damage

    The claim in the Mirror stories are that no he didn't attend what appears to have been regular knees up. There was some drinks for a senior civil servant leaving, where he came in, gave a short speech and left.

    The problem is a) did he know / encourage them and b) he has clearly lied about them.
    Quiz? Secret Santa? I used to work in the civil service (or more precisely in a quango still very much marked by the CS ethos) and I can never remember those in a leaving do.
    My past experience is that a civil servant having a leaving do would do everything possible to prevent politicians from attending.
  • They were here. Where’s Big G and HYUFD gone? Has anyone seen the Odd Couple?

    What’s the point of a spin team if they are always hiding in the kitchen at parties?

    I have just posted
    Welcome back.

    But I do apologies, I got a bit excited remembering I am on Libdems at 3-1 and this is a difficult period to get the vote out.
    I have not been away other than having to go and collect my son as he put his car in for a mot and forgot to arrange a lift back to his home !!!!!

    This debacle is a gift to the lib dems and I would be very surprised if you did not win your wager
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 13,107

    Jonathan said:

    It’s hard to know who is worse; Boris, his administration or those that continue to support and defend him.

    The Tory MPs who enabled him and continue to do so are the worst. Boris has been consistent his whole life. Your average Tory voter does not understand how bad he is. Tory MPs knew it when they put him through to the members.
    To be fair, lots of MPs knew that, hence the unsuccessful attempts to keep him off the final ballot.

    You'd have to be a knave or a fool to have been an MP who backed him from the off.

    Like Sunak did.

    Sunak, Rishi; Jenrick, Robert; Dowden, Oliver (5 June 2019). "The Tories are in deep peril. Only Boris Johnson can save us". The Times.
    Yes. Sunak appears to be quite polished..

    But his support for - in turn - Brexit, Boris and the Barrington Declaration suggests he is a menace.
    I now somewhat doubt Sunak's competence. He was responsible for the social care policy that bombed. A couple of his other calls have looked iffy. Think Javid might be safer pair of hands.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,668
    Scott_xP said:

    i'm sorry but this recording turning out to be the only thing that came out of the government building that £2.6m white house ripoff press conference room that they ended up never using is the most delicious Chekhov's Gun reveal i've seen in years

    https://twitter.com/vampthebs/status/1468302267543691267
    https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1468284349548224512

    Whoever is leaking this has a perfect sense of theatre. Allow time for all the denials, then when looking a bit tired, release this video.

    It wouldn't surprise me at all that after the next round of denials videos of the actual party are leaked.

    It really is popcorn time!
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,801

    EXCLUSIVE: Former Education Secretary Gavin Williamson broke Covid rules by holding a festive party at work in the run up to last Christmas.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1468326524638142472

    The idea that anyone would attend is simply daft.

    He may have intended to break the rules, but most certainly he didn't.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 11,480

    Pulpstar said:

    Jonathan said:

    It’s hard to know who is worse; Boris, his administration or those that continue to support and defend him.

    The Tory MPs who enabled him and continue to do so are the worst. Boris has been consistent his whole life. Your average Tory voter does not understand how bad he is. Tory MPs knew it when they put him through to the members.
    To be fair, lots of MPs knew that, hence the unsuccessful attempts to keep him off the final ballot.

    You'd have to be a knave or a fool to have been an MP who backed him from the off.

    Like Sunak did.

    Sunak, Rishi; Jenrick, Robert; Dowden, Oliver (5 June 2019). "The Tories are in deep peril. Only Boris Johnson can save us". The Times.
    Yes. Sunak appears to be quite polished..

    But his support for - in turn - Brexit, Boris and the Barrington Declaration suggest he is a menace.
    Sunak's the most Thatcherite leadership candidate of the lot. Definitely to the right of Truss, Javid economically.
    Yes his tax rises really demonstrate that.

    If he's so Thatcherite how about some tax cuts, starting with reversing the NI tax rise.
    The NI increase is small beer compared to hiking VAT from 8% to 15%. I wonder who did that.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,425
    edited December 2021
    Interesting to see Corbyn being mentioned by a few on here in respect of breaking lockdown rules.

    I take it from this sign of desperation that there's no dirt on Starmer breaking lockdown rules, which would possibly be more relevant.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,738
    GIN1138 said:

    EXCLUSIVE: Former Education Secretary Gavin Williamson broke Covid rules by holding a festive party at work in the run up to last Christmas.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1468326524638142472

    It's a wonder he actually has enough friends to be able to throw a "party" with...
    Well, in London. In South Staffs for reasons that continue to defy logic they love him.

    I'm really wishing my house was fifty yards to the north-west so I could vote against him at the next election.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,175
    “691 people died of coronavirus on the day the footage was filmed”

    https://www.ft.com/content/3d7737c0-7e33-4d0a-9db2-537cf3b49693
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,738

    Interesting to see Corbyn being mentioned by a few on here in respect of breaking lockdown rules.

    I take it from this sign of desperation that there's no dirt on Starmer breaking lockdown rules, which would possibly be more relevant.

    Or that we just all still hate Corbyn.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Omnium said:

    IshmaelZ said:


    I am genuinely uncertain that we ended up with the lesser of two evils in Dec 2019. He really is that bad.

    Corbyn would have had different problems. He would have depended on people who would have thought he was never being quite left-wing enough - "a disappointment", people like McCluskey would have said soon enough. There would have been an instant selloff of sterling and the financial markets, though they'd have found their level eventually. The alliance with the US would have gone into the deepest of freezes.

    On the other hand, he'd have done a free trade deal with the EU and saved endless bickering. He'd have been steady on the pandemic, doing much the same but without constantly trying to make endearing pledges like "saving Christmas". And he's rigidly honest and I doubt if he's thrown a wild party in his life, and certainly not while urging the opposite on other people. Being boringly austere is not usually popular, but there are times when it's a good thing.
    NP - you're just about my favourite poster on PB.

    I really think that your loyalty to Corbyn is massively misplaced. He's a bad man, and you certainly aren't.

    I'm a Tory, but if there is to be a Labour government again then it'll need people like you, behind the scenes perhaps, making it work. I've no idea what sort of madness causes you, a sensible person, to ally yourself with a nutter, but please, please get out of that.
    Nick's a good man, but he's a Red and that's tribal.
    Dr Nick has charted a very strange journey through the years on PB from Tony Blair cheerleader to Jezza cheerleader (via El Gord and Red Ed)

    Mind I've noticed even he doesn't even bother to spin for SKS lol! ;)
    They were all nudges of the dial toward his Communist ideal though. I'm pretty sure Nick's smart enough to know the ideal is unobtainable, but he'll enthusiastically support any move by his party, or the country, closer to it.

    I'm sure he'll get rigorously behind Starmer soon enough; he's the only left wing option with a chance.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,125

    EXCLUSIVE: Former Education Secretary Gavin Williamson broke Covid rules by holding a festive party at work in the run up to last Christmas.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1468326524638142472

    Wonder how long The Mirror had this exclusive. The timing is so convenient, yet another group of party animals managed to avoid talking to the press for almost 12 months, until today.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,762
    TimS said:

    Good timing for the NS by-election.

    Conveniently for Boris that also means the news cycle will move on from Friday, one way or the other.

    Disagree

    I reckon Boris is in big trouble, and that's the first time I've felt that way since the GE. If there is incontrovertible evidence he was at the party in any sense (ie stuff he can't lie his way out of: like video of him giving a speech, however brief) then he will have to resign. It's been an iron law of Covid, if you get caught flouting the rules flagrantly, you go, from Hancock to that Scottish health woman, this has been the case

    if it is true, I may have to revise my opinion that Boris is a clever man. Unbelievably foolish mistake.

    A clever politician would have seen the enormous trap opening up - "if anyone at the party videos this they will have dangerous evidence against me that could be used at any time, I know a better idea: I won't go"

    BUT we do need that killer evidence
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 1,518

    They were here. Where’s Big G and HYUFD gone? Has anyone seen the Odd Couple?

    What’s the point of a spin team if they are always hiding in the kitchen at parties?

    I have just posted
    Welcome back.

    But I do apologies, I got a bit excited remembering I am on Libdems at 3-1 and this is a difficult period to get the vote out.
    I have not been away other than having to go and collect my son as he put his car in for a mot and forgot to arrange a lift back to his home !!!!!

    This debacle is a gift to the lib dems and I would be very surprised if you did not win your wager
    👍🏻. Keep warm Big G
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,175
    I wonder whether he can sack someone for laughing about a party he said never happened.
    https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1468310327225896961
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,738
    dixiedean said:

    EXCLUSIVE: Former Education Secretary Gavin Williamson broke Covid rules by holding a festive party at work in the run up to last Christmas.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1468326524638142472

    Unbelievable!!!

    Gavin Williamson organised a piss-up?
    Well, it wasn't in a brewery.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 5,221
    edited December 2021
    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    i'm sorry but this recording turning out to be the only thing that came out of the government building that £2.6m white house ripoff press conference room that they ended up never using is the most delicious Chekhov's Gun reveal i've seen in years

    https://twitter.com/vampthebs/status/1468302267543691267
    https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1468284349548224512

    Whoever is leaking this has a perfect sense of theatre. Allow time for all the denials, then when looking a bit tired, release this video.

    It wouldn't surprise me at all that after the next round of denials videos of the actual party are leaked.

    It really is popcorn time!
    That's partly why I was wondering whether it was Cummings-related - the excellent, lingering timing and vengeance - but then I remembered that he was supposed to have left the government payroll just before, in early December 2020. Or was he ?

    Perhaps on the other hand, though, the governnment just has so many internal enemies, by now, that all sorts of people enjoy watching them struggle and squirm.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,541
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Good timing for the NS by-election.

    Conveniently for Boris that also means the news cycle will move on from Friday, one way or the other.

    Disagree

    I reckon Boris is in big trouble, and that's the first time I've felt that way since the GE. If there is incontrovertible evidence he was at the party in any sense (ie stuff he can't lie his way out of: like video of him giving a speech, however brief) then he will have to resign. It's been an iron law of Covid, if you get caught flouting the rules flagrantly, you go, from Hancock to that Scottish health woman, this has been the case

    if it is true, I may have to revise my opinion that Boris is a clever man. Unbelievably foolish mistake.

    A clever politician would have seen the enormous trap opening up - "if anyone at the party videos this they will have dangerous evidence against me that could be used at any time, I know a better idea: I won't go"

    BUT we do need that killer evidence
    Agreed.

    Depending on what emerges and how much the police get involved, we might be in the dying days of the Johnson ministry.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 12,232

    Interesting to see Corbyn being mentioned by a few on here in respect of breaking lockdown rules.

    I take it from this sign of desperation that there's no dirt on Starmer breaking lockdown rules, which would possibly be more relevant.

    I only mentioned Corbo because Nick implied he, Corbo, would never dream of breaking the rules. There was nothing more to it than that: Corbo wasn’t a hypocrite about it, as far as I know, unlike the lying git in No. 10.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,541

    Foxy said:

    Scott_xP said:

    i'm sorry but this recording turning out to be the only thing that came out of the government building that £2.6m white house ripoff press conference room that they ended up never using is the most delicious Chekhov's Gun reveal i've seen in years

    https://twitter.com/vampthebs/status/1468302267543691267
    https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1468284349548224512

    Whoever is leaking this has a perfect sense of theatre. Allow time for all the denials, then when looking a bit tired, release this video.

    It wouldn't surprise me at all that after the next round of denials videos of the actual party are leaked.

    It really is popcorn time!
    That's partly why I was wondering whether it was Cummings-related - excellent timing and vengeance - but then I remembered that he was supposed to have left the government payroll just before, in early December 2020.
    All roads lead to Dom.

    He himself may have resigned... but you can bet he'll have eyes and ears all over Westminster.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 68,203
    edited December 2021

    Interesting to see Corbyn being mentioned by a few on here in respect of breaking lockdown rules.

    I take it from this sign of desperation that there's no dirt on Starmer breaking lockdown rules, which would possibly be more relevant.

    It was only brought up, because Nick said no no no he is so honest, he would never do such a thing. Except he did, multiple times, so people corrected him. But he is a has been.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,668
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Here's a tutorial from Sky on why a more transmissible but less severe variant is bad news:
    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-omicron-may-be-more-infectious-but-do-we-need-to-worry-if-it-causes-less-severe-disease-12489186

    The disturbing thing is that this is despite their having leaned over backwards to make much more optimistic assumptions than are justified by the facts. For illustration, they suppose the R number of Omicron will be 1.5. Estimates from South Africa suggest something more like 2.5. Even higher figures for its rate of spread relative to Delta in the UK have been reported today.

    And they suppose it will be only half as severe as Delta, even though we have no real evidence that it is any less severe. It's continually stated that disease in the current wave in South Africa is typically less severe than in the previous wave. But that's exactly what you would expect in a situation where (1) there was much less immunity in the population in the previous wave and (2) a new variant is escaping immunity so that a higher percentage of infections are in those already infected or vaccinated.

    Those numbers (with the caveat that they are "entirely made up") aren't very helpful in understanding how much of a risk there is from omicron because essentially all they are doing is comparing exponential growth with a constant rate of new infections. Obviously the former will produce scarier numbers, but we are no longer in the same position as March 2020.
    I am expecting a bit of a shitshow in the hospitals. Depleted staff numbers, people on much overdue leave getting stuck overseas, and the rest of us in isolation. This is what happened after a recent ICU staff Christmas party in Spain. 70 cases and the unit unable to staff.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1468266668749209605?t=GTj0CSAAEoFSiBp7Xticow&s=19
    Foxy, hello. Can I ask a medical question?

    Do you think the PCR tests are totally reliable?

    As you probably remember last week I thought I had Covid, but I got a negative LFT and then a negative PCR. But I've just recalled - I was semi-delirious at the time, so the anomaly has only just struck me -that for 24 hours of my illness I entirely lost my sense of smell. Anosmia. This wasn't the blocked nose diminishment of smell you get with a cold or the flu, it was a total loss of a faculty. I couldn't smell coffee, perfume, strong Cheddar, anything. Zip.

    Does that indicate I DID have Covid, and the PCR test was a false negative? Can that happen?

    FWIW I have never lost my sense of smell before; it was striking and odd, and actually a bit scary (at the idea it might be long lasting or even permanent)
    I think PCR is better than Lateral Flow, but both are very dependent on the quality of the sample. I am sure that poor swabbing accounts for a lot of false negatives.

    That said, the Anosmia of Covid is generally more prolonged than a single day. Mrs Foxy's sense of smell has never completely returned.

    An antibody test in a months time, able to distinguish between viral and vaccine antibodies may be the only way to be certain.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,467

    Interesting to see Corbyn being mentioned by a few on here in respect of breaking lockdown rules.

    I take it from this sign of desperation that there's no dirt on Starmer breaking lockdown rules, which would possibly be more relevant.

    It's a bit like complainingf that the Earl of Danby was breaching the Great Plague regulations.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,425
    ydoethur said:

    Interesting to see Corbyn being mentioned by a few on here in respect of breaking lockdown rules.

    I take it from this sign of desperation that there's no dirt on Starmer breaking lockdown rules, which would possibly be more relevant.

    Or that we just all still hate Corbyn.
    Fair enough, but you just need to let go. He's gone. Finished. Focus your hate on Amanda Spielman if you must hate - she's still there.

    (Incidentally, I've been meaning to ask you - do you remember Christine Gilbert? She was an even worse HMCI than Spielman IMO).
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,947
    edited December 2021
    This may have been posted earlier, but well worth it again. Another official hung out to dry by BJ as he faces Chris Bryant at committee, with the Trudy Harrison letter in front of him.

    Absolutely brutal.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-59560337
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,762
    dr_spyn said:

    EXCLUSIVE: Former Education Secretary Gavin Williamson broke Covid rules by holding a festive party at work in the run up to last Christmas.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1468326524638142472

    Wonder how long The Mirror had this exclusive. The timing is so convenient, yet another group of party animals managed to avoid talking to the press for almost 12 months, until today.
    it's definitely not an inside Tory job. Cui bono? No one in the Tory party. This tarnishes all of them. It isn't Sunak or Gove or anyone, it's probably Remainer civil servants, is my guess. This is their deliciously timed Brexit revenge, served with cold Christmas ice

    As a knapper of dildos, it occurs to me you could easily work out the ID of the rat by examining the video of Stratton. Someone had to be in that seat, with that perspective, to take the video. Go back and find out who it was. There's yer informant
  • What is it about Prime Ministers and parties?

    Finland's prime minister came under sustained criticism on Tuesday after it was revealed she stayed out dancing until the early hours on the weekend despite knowing she had been exposed to Covid-19

    https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20211207-night-fever-finnish-pm-caught-clubbing-after-covid-exposure
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,396
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Good timing for the NS by-election.

    Conveniently for Boris that also means the news cycle will move on from Friday, one way or the other.

    Disagree

    I reckon Boris is in big trouble, and that's the first time I've felt that way since the GE. If there is incontrovertible evidence he was at the party in any sense (ie stuff he can't lie his way out of: like video of him giving a speech, however brief) then he will have to resign. It's been an iron law of Covid, if you get caught flouting the rules flagrantly, you go, from Hancock to that Scottish health woman, this has been the case

    if it is true, I may have to revise my opinion that Boris is a clever man. Unbelievably foolish mistake.

    A clever politician would have seen the enormous trap opening up - "if anyone at the party videos this they will have dangerous evidence against me that could be used at any time, I know a better idea: I won't go"

    BUT we do need that killer evidence
    I doubt he was there. Perhaps I am wrong. But I wouldn’t be surprised if Sunak was. Given his personal links to Allegra Stratton (who was there) through James Forsyth. There’s going to be a huge scalp from this. If I was a bettor, I’d be putting my money on Javid to take over right now.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 18,175
    I think you could describe this as cut through… https://twitter.com/imacelebrity/status/1468329208749465606
  • Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Good timing for the NS by-election.

    Conveniently for Boris that also means the news cycle will move on from Friday, one way or the other.

    Disagree

    I reckon Boris is in big trouble, and that's the first time I've felt that way since the GE. If there is incontrovertible evidence he was at the party in any sense (ie stuff he can't lie his way out of: like video of him giving a speech, however brief) then he will have to resign. It's been an iron law of Covid, if you get caught flouting the rules flagrantly, you go, from Hancock to that Scottish health woman, this has been the case

    if it is true, I may have to revise my opinion that Boris is a clever man. Unbelievably foolish mistake.

    A clever politician would have seen the enormous trap opening up - "if anyone at the party videos this they will have dangerous evidence against me that could be used at any time, I know a better idea: I won't go"

    BUT we do need that killer evidence
    I've been thinking that about the actual evidence.

    As far as I can see, the only attributable evidence so far is that video of Allegra Stratton. First off, she looks at least drunk in that video, then she says she went home before there was any party/legal-gathering, and then she says there was no social distancing at whatever it was with cheese and wine.

    Has anybody that was at the 'party' actually admitted it, or just allegedly made anonymous briefings?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,762
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Here's a tutorial from Sky on why a more transmissible but less severe variant is bad news:
    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-omicron-may-be-more-infectious-but-do-we-need-to-worry-if-it-causes-less-severe-disease-12489186

    The disturbing thing is that this is despite their having leaned over backwards to make much more optimistic assumptions than are justified by the facts. For illustration, they suppose the R number of Omicron will be 1.5. Estimates from South Africa suggest something more like 2.5. Even higher figures for its rate of spread relative to Delta in the UK have been reported today.

    And they suppose it will be only half as severe as Delta, even though we have no real evidence that it is any less severe. It's continually stated that disease in the current wave in South Africa is typically less severe than in the previous wave. But that's exactly what you would expect in a situation where (1) there was much less immunity in the population in the previous wave and (2) a new variant is escaping immunity so that a higher percentage of infections are in those already infected or vaccinated.

    Those numbers (with the caveat that they are "entirely made up") aren't very helpful in understanding how much of a risk there is from omicron because essentially all they are doing is comparing exponential growth with a constant rate of new infections. Obviously the former will produce scarier numbers, but we are no longer in the same position as March 2020.
    I am expecting a bit of a shitshow in the hospitals. Depleted staff numbers, people on much overdue leave getting stuck overseas, and the rest of us in isolation. This is what happened after a recent ICU staff Christmas party in Spain. 70 cases and the unit unable to staff.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1468266668749209605?t=GTj0CSAAEoFSiBp7Xticow&s=19
    Foxy, hello. Can I ask a medical question?

    Do you think the PCR tests are totally reliable?

    As you probably remember last week I thought I had Covid, but I got a negative LFT and then a negative PCR. But I've just recalled - I was semi-delirious at the time, so the anomaly has only just struck me -that for 24 hours of my illness I entirely lost my sense of smell. Anosmia. This wasn't the blocked nose diminishment of smell you get with a cold or the flu, it was a total loss of a faculty. I couldn't smell coffee, perfume, strong Cheddar, anything. Zip.

    Does that indicate I DID have Covid, and the PCR test was a false negative? Can that happen?

    FWIW I have never lost my sense of smell before; it was striking and odd, and actually a bit scary (at the idea it might be long lasting or even permanent)
    I think PCR is better than Lateral Flow, but both are very dependent on the quality of the sample. I am sure that poor swabbing accounts for a lot of false negatives.

    That said, the Anosmia of Covid is generally more prolonged than a single day. Mrs Foxy's sense of smell has never completely returned.

    An antibody test in a months time, able to distinguish between viral and vaccine antibodies may be the only way to be certain.
    Thanks. Useful. I might just do that AB test, to satisfy my curiosity

    My sympathies to your wife, anosmia is no joke, as I now - belatedly - realise

    And yes I agree that poor technique must produce a lot of debatable results. When I did my PCR I was so weak from whatever-I-had I could barely stand up. Let alone focus properly on a self-administered medical procedure. God knows what I actually swabbed. And did I keep the sample pure and clean? No idea
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,738

    ydoethur said:

    Interesting to see Corbyn being mentioned by a few on here in respect of breaking lockdown rules.

    I take it from this sign of desperation that there's no dirt on Starmer breaking lockdown rules, which would possibly be more relevant.

    Or that we just all still hate Corbyn.
    Fair enough, but you just need to let go. He's gone. Finished. Focus your hate on Amanda Spielman if you must hate - she's still there.

    (Incidentally, I've been meaning to ask you - do you remember Christine Gilbert? She was an even worse HMCI than Spielman IMO).
    She was bad. Very bad. And appointed largely because she was having sex with a junior minister.

    But she was not worse than Spielman. She had at least been a teacher, albeit briefly, and knew what safeguarding was.
  • Pretty grim viewing on ITV News and now the lead everywhere.

    I haven't scrolled down but doubtless the fan club will say it's tittle tattle and doesn't matter.

    Oh but it does. The death knell sounds through Johnson's tory party.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,467
    Leon said:

    dr_spyn said:

    EXCLUSIVE: Former Education Secretary Gavin Williamson broke Covid rules by holding a festive party at work in the run up to last Christmas.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1468326524638142472

    Wonder how long The Mirror had this exclusive. The timing is so convenient, yet another group of party animals managed to avoid talking to the press for almost 12 months, until today.
    it's definitely not an inside Tory job. Cui bono? No one in the Tory party. This tarnishes all of them. It isn't Sunak or Gove or anyone, it's probably Remainer civil servants, is my guess. This is their deliciously timed Brexit revenge, served with cold Christmas ice

    As a knapper of dildos, it occurs to me you could easily work out the ID of the rat by examining the video of Stratton. Someone had to be in that seat, with that perspective, to take the video. Go back and find out who it was. There's yer informant
    Not necessarily. It could have been made as part of the procedure/joke.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 21,190
    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I just realised that I was briefly at school with Harvey Weinstein's ex-wife.

    I mean as a claim to fame it's pretty tenuous... but I'll still give a like anyway! :D
    It's certainly a weak claim to fame!

    I'm just quite shocked. I remember her very well; all the girls were jealous of her because she was so damn pretty. I knew she'd done some modelling after school and then gone into the movie business but never knew she'd ended up Mrs Weinstein.. I feel rather less jealous of her now.
    My uncle was in the same class as Harold Shipman. Apparently he was regularly around my uncles house as a kid.
    Gosh!

    I'm very boring. As far as I know I don't have connections to any convicted criminals or serial killers.

    And I've never even met Boris (unlike about 95% of people on here)
    I lived 2 doors down from Dennis Nielsen in Cranley Gardens when he was arrested for multiple murders.
    My Vicar buried Fred West.

    Yeah, that's a rubbish one but it's the best I can do.
    Given my job I know quite a few criminals and other undesirables.

    Cyclefree said:

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I just realised that I was briefly at school with Harvey Weinstein's ex-wife.

    I mean as a claim to fame it's pretty tenuous... but I'll still give a like anyway! :D
    It's certainly a weak claim to fame!

    I'm just quite shocked. I remember her very well; all the girls were jealous of her because she was so damn pretty. I knew she'd done some modelling after school and then gone into the movie business but never knew she'd ended up Mrs Weinstein.. I feel rather less jealous of her now.
    My uncle was in the same class as Harold Shipman. Apparently he was regularly around my uncles house as a kid.
    Gosh!

    I'm very boring. As far as I know I don't have connections to any convicted criminals or serial killers.

    And I've never even met Boris (unlike about 95% of people on here)
    I lived 2 doors down from Dennis Nielsen in Cranley Gardens when he was arrested for multiple murders.
    Wow!
    Did you notice anything funny about the drains?
    Well the lady who collected our rent also collected the rent from Dennis on behalf of the respective owners. About 3 weeks after I moved in she told us that there was a problem with the drains and that a plumber was being called .....

    Then the police came round and interviewed everyone in the nearby houses, including me.

    I started young, mind. When I was 16 I witnessed a bank robbery (masked men, shotguns etc) at the Barclays branch in St Johns Wood. I got the registration number of the getaway car and gave a statement to the police. The crime featured on Police 5.

    Then I moved into more crimes in banks, only this time by those working inside them.

    The golden thread of my working life .......
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,762
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Good timing for the NS by-election.

    Conveniently for Boris that also means the news cycle will move on from Friday, one way or the other.

    Disagree

    I reckon Boris is in big trouble, and that's the first time I've felt that way since the GE. If there is incontrovertible evidence he was at the party in any sense (ie stuff he can't lie his way out of: like video of him giving a speech, however brief) then he will have to resign. It's been an iron law of Covid, if you get caught flouting the rules flagrantly, you go, from Hancock to that Scottish health woman, this has been the case

    if it is true, I may have to revise my opinion that Boris is a clever man. Unbelievably foolish mistake.

    A clever politician would have seen the enormous trap opening up - "if anyone at the party videos this they will have dangerous evidence against me that could be used at any time, I know a better idea: I won't go"

    BUT we do need that killer evidence
    I doubt he was there. Perhaps I am wrong. But I wouldn’t be surprised if Sunak was. Given his personal links to Allegra Stratton (who was there) through James Forsyth. There’s going to be a huge scalp from this. If I was a bettor, I’d be putting my money on Javid to take over right now.
    If there is any proof any Tory politician was there, that Tory is doomed

    If Carrie Johnson was there, that's a thorny one to work out. You can't sack a PM's wife
  • Scott_xP said:

    I think you could describe this as cut through… https://twitter.com/imacelebrity/status/1468329208749465606

    Yeah just seen that. Brutal satire.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,425
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Interesting to see Corbyn being mentioned by a few on here in respect of breaking lockdown rules.

    I take it from this sign of desperation that there's no dirt on Starmer breaking lockdown rules, which would possibly be more relevant.

    Or that we just all still hate Corbyn.
    Fair enough, but you just need to let go. He's gone. Finished. Focus your hate on Amanda Spielman if you must hate - she's still there.

    (Incidentally, I've been meaning to ask you - do you remember Christine Gilbert? She was an even worse HMCI than Spielman IMO).
    She was bad. Very bad. And appointed largely because she was having sex with a junior minister.

    But she was not worse than Spielman. She had at least been a teacher, albeit briefly, and knew what safeguarding was.
    Impressive memory. Tony McNulty - yes, very dodgy. She may have known what safeguarding was, but she really was completely clueless on everything else.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,541
    Heathener said:

    Pretty grim viewing on ITV News and now the lead everywhere.

    I haven't scrolled down but doubtless the fan club will say it's tittle tattle and doesn't matter.

    Oh but it does. The death knell sounds through Johnson's tory party.

    I've already stated we could be in the dying days of the Johnson ministry!

    I don't think there's been one person that's said it doesn't matter. This is very, very serious for Boris Johnson and his government.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,762
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    dr_spyn said:

    EXCLUSIVE: Former Education Secretary Gavin Williamson broke Covid rules by holding a festive party at work in the run up to last Christmas.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1468326524638142472

    Wonder how long The Mirror had this exclusive. The timing is so convenient, yet another group of party animals managed to avoid talking to the press for almost 12 months, until today.
    it's definitely not an inside Tory job. Cui bono? No one in the Tory party. This tarnishes all of them. It isn't Sunak or Gove or anyone, it's probably Remainer civil servants, is my guess. This is their deliciously timed Brexit revenge, served with cold Christmas ice

    As a knapper of dildos, it occurs to me you could easily work out the ID of the rat by examining the video of Stratton. Someone had to be in that seat, with that perspective, to take the video. Go back and find out who it was. There's yer informant
    Not necessarily. It could have been made as part of the procedure/joke.
    But the person who made the vid would still have to leak it. Unless it was stolen?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 3,396
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Here's a tutorial from Sky on why a more transmissible but less severe variant is bad news:
    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-omicron-may-be-more-infectious-but-do-we-need-to-worry-if-it-causes-less-severe-disease-12489186

    The disturbing thing is that this is despite their having leaned over backwards to make much more optimistic assumptions than are justified by the facts. For illustration, they suppose the R number of Omicron will be 1.5. Estimates from South Africa suggest something more like 2.5. Even higher figures for its rate of spread relative to Delta in the UK have been reported today.

    And they suppose it will be only half as severe as Delta, even though we have no real evidence that it is any less severe. It's continually stated that disease in the current wave in South Africa is typically less severe than in the previous wave. But that's exactly what you would expect in a situation where (1) there was much less immunity in the population in the previous wave and (2) a new variant is escaping immunity so that a higher percentage of infections are in those already infected or vaccinated.

    Those numbers (with the caveat that they are "entirely made up") aren't very helpful in understanding how much of a risk there is from omicron because essentially all they are doing is comparing exponential growth with a constant rate of new infections. Obviously the former will produce scarier numbers, but we are no longer in the same position as March 2020.
    I am expecting a bit of a shitshow in the hospitals. Depleted staff numbers, people on much overdue leave getting stuck overseas, and the rest of us in isolation. This is what happened after a recent ICU staff Christmas party in Spain. 70 cases and the unit unable to staff.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1468266668749209605?t=GTj0CSAAEoFSiBp7Xticow&s=19
    Foxy, hello. Can I ask a medical question?

    Do you think the PCR tests are totally reliable?

    As you probably remember last week I thought I had Covid, but I got a negative LFT and then a negative PCR. But I've just recalled - I was semi-delirious at the time, so the anomaly has only just struck me -that for 24 hours of my illness I entirely lost my sense of smell. Anosmia. This wasn't the blocked nose diminishment of smell you get with a cold or the flu, it was a total loss of a faculty. I couldn't smell coffee, perfume, strong Cheddar, anything. Zip.

    Does that indicate I DID have Covid, and the PCR test was a false negative? Can that happen?

    FWIW I have never lost my sense of smell before; it was striking and odd, and actually a bit scary (at the idea it might be long lasting or even permanent)
    I think PCR is better than Lateral Flow, but both are very dependent on the quality of the sample. I am sure that poor swabbing accounts for a lot of false negatives.

    That said, the Anosmia of Covid is generally more prolonged than a single day. Mrs Foxy's sense of smell has never completely returned.

    An antibody test in a months time, able to distinguish between viral and vaccine antibodies may be the only way to be certain.
    Thanks. Useful. I might just do that AB test, to satisfy my curiosity

    My sympathies to your wife, anosmia is no joke, as I now - belatedly - realise

    And yes I agree that poor technique must produce a lot of debatable results. When I did my PCR I was so weak from whatever-I-had I could barely stand up. Let alone focus properly on a self-administered medical procedure. God knows what I actually swabbed. And did I keep the sample pure and clean? No idea
    Leon I tested my sense of taste last week using that Zimbabwean hot sauce. All I got was a hint of citrus despite eating it by the spoonful. Next day, PCR negative. Blood shot eyes for days, dry cough 2 weeks later. 4 days of fatigue so bad I was in bed round the clock. But in the round I am now fine. We live in an age where we are overthinking getting ill. We never used to care what our bug’s name was, hopefully we return to those days soon.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,467
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Good timing for the NS by-election.

    Conveniently for Boris that also means the news cycle will move on from Friday, one way or the other.

    Disagree

    I reckon Boris is in big trouble, and that's the first time I've felt that way since the GE. If there is incontrovertible evidence he was at the party in any sense (ie stuff he can't lie his way out of: like video of him giving a speech, however brief) then he will have to resign. It's been an iron law of Covid, if you get caught flouting the rules flagrantly, you go, from Hancock to that Scottish health woman, this has been the case

    if it is true, I may have to revise my opinion that Boris is a clever man. Unbelievably foolish mistake.

    A clever politician would have seen the enormous trap opening up - "if anyone at the party videos this they will have dangerous evidence against me that could be used at any time, I know a better idea: I won't go"

    BUT we do need that killer evidence
    I doubt he was there. Perhaps I am wrong. But I wouldn’t be surprised if Sunak was. Given his personal links to Allegra Stratton (who was there) through James Forsyth. There’s going to be a huge scalp from this. If I was a bettor, I’d be putting my money on Javid to take over right now.
    If there is any proof any Tory politician was there, that Tory is doomed

    If Carrie Johnson was there, that's a thorny one to work out. You can't sack a PM's wife
    Tied house. So everyone has to behave. Like an estate carpenter's son poaching pheasants. The whole lot got sacked.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 17,467
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    dr_spyn said:

    EXCLUSIVE: Former Education Secretary Gavin Williamson broke Covid rules by holding a festive party at work in the run up to last Christmas.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1468326524638142472

    Wonder how long The Mirror had this exclusive. The timing is so convenient, yet another group of party animals managed to avoid talking to the press for almost 12 months, until today.
    it's definitely not an inside Tory job. Cui bono? No one in the Tory party. This tarnishes all of them. It isn't Sunak or Gove or anyone, it's probably Remainer civil servants, is my guess. This is their deliciously timed Brexit revenge, served with cold Christmas ice

    As a knapper of dildos, it occurs to me you could easily work out the ID of the rat by examining the video of Stratton. Someone had to be in that seat, with that perspective, to take the video. Go back and find out who it was. There's yer informant
    Not necessarily. It could have been made as part of the procedure/joke.
    But the person who made the vid would still have to leak it. Unless it was stolen?
    Mm, yes, quite - or the person changed mind later. Just that it could have been consensual at the time.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,125
    Arrogance and high office must be endemic.

    https://twitter.com/oliverjamesking/status/1468329732550897669
  • Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Good timing for the NS by-election.

    Conveniently for Boris that also means the news cycle will move on from Friday, one way or the other.

    Disagree

    I reckon Boris is in big trouble, and that's the first time I've felt that way since the GE. If there is incontrovertible evidence he was at the party in any sense (ie stuff he can't lie his way out of: like video of him giving a speech, however brief) then he will have to resign. It's been an iron law of Covid, if you get caught flouting the rules flagrantly, you go, from Hancock to that Scottish health woman, this has been the case

    if it is true, I may have to revise my opinion that Boris is a clever man. Unbelievably foolish mistake.

    A clever politician would have seen the enormous trap opening up - "if anyone at the party videos this they will have dangerous evidence against me that could be used at any time, I know a better idea: I won't go"

    BUT we do need that killer evidence
    I doubt he was there. Perhaps I am wrong. But I wouldn’t be surprised if Sunak was. Given his personal links to Allegra Stratton (who was there) through James Forsyth. There’s going to be a huge scalp from this. If I was a bettor, I’d be putting my money on Javid to take over right now.
    If there is any proof any Tory politician was there, that Tory is doomed

    If Carrie Johnson was there, that's a thorny one to work out. You can't sack a PM's wife
    Boris has automatic protection as people expect him to break the rules, he will get through this regardless. He is correct in assuming the rules don't apply to him.
  • Heathener said:

    Pretty grim viewing on ITV News and now the lead everywhere.

    I haven't scrolled down but doubtless the fan club will say it's tittle tattle and doesn't matter.

    Oh but it does. The death knell sounds through Johnson's tory party.

    The endless lies. The arrogance. The corruption. All just mood music for the revelation to normals that their government are taking the fucking piss.
  • dr_spyn said:

    Arrogance and high office must be endemic.

    https://twitter.com/oliverjamesking/status/1468329732550897669

    Gavin Newsom is another....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,762
    moonshine said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Here's a tutorial from Sky on why a more transmissible but less severe variant is bad news:
    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-omicron-may-be-more-infectious-but-do-we-need-to-worry-if-it-causes-less-severe-disease-12489186

    The disturbing thing is that this is despite their having leaned over backwards to make much more optimistic assumptions than are justified by the facts. For illustration, they suppose the R number of Omicron will be 1.5. Estimates from South Africa suggest something more like 2.5. Even higher figures for its rate of spread relative to Delta in the UK have been reported today.

    And they suppose it will be only half as severe as Delta, even though we have no real evidence that it is any less severe. It's continually stated that disease in the current wave in South Africa is typically less severe than in the previous wave. But that's exactly what you would expect in a situation where (1) there was much less immunity in the population in the previous wave and (2) a new variant is escaping immunity so that a higher percentage of infections are in those already infected or vaccinated.

    Those numbers (with the caveat that they are "entirely made up") aren't very helpful in understanding how much of a risk there is from omicron because essentially all they are doing is comparing exponential growth with a constant rate of new infections. Obviously the former will produce scarier numbers, but we are no longer in the same position as March 2020.
    I am expecting a bit of a shitshow in the hospitals. Depleted staff numbers, people on much overdue leave getting stuck overseas, and the rest of us in isolation. This is what happened after a recent ICU staff Christmas party in Spain. 70 cases and the unit unable to staff.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1468266668749209605?t=GTj0CSAAEoFSiBp7Xticow&s=19
    Foxy, hello. Can I ask a medical question?

    Do you think the PCR tests are totally reliable?

    As you probably remember last week I thought I had Covid, but I got a negative LFT and then a negative PCR. But I've just recalled - I was semi-delirious at the time, so the anomaly has only just struck me -that for 24 hours of my illness I entirely lost my sense of smell. Anosmia. This wasn't the blocked nose diminishment of smell you get with a cold or the flu, it was a total loss of a faculty. I couldn't smell coffee, perfume, strong Cheddar, anything. Zip.

    Does that indicate I DID have Covid, and the PCR test was a false negative? Can that happen?

    FWIW I have never lost my sense of smell before; it was striking and odd, and actually a bit scary (at the idea it might be long lasting or even permanent)
    I think PCR is better than Lateral Flow, but both are very dependent on the quality of the sample. I am sure that poor swabbing accounts for a lot of false negatives.

    That said, the Anosmia of Covid is generally more prolonged than a single day. Mrs Foxy's sense of smell has never completely returned.

    An antibody test in a months time, able to distinguish between viral and vaccine antibodies may be the only way to be certain.
    Thanks. Useful. I might just do that AB test, to satisfy my curiosity

    My sympathies to your wife, anosmia is no joke, as I now - belatedly - realise

    And yes I agree that poor technique must produce a lot of debatable results. When I did my PCR I was so weak from whatever-I-had I could barely stand up. Let alone focus properly on a self-administered medical procedure. God knows what I actually swabbed. And did I keep the sample pure and clean? No idea
    Leon I tested my sense of taste last week using that Zimbabwean hot sauce. All I got was a hint of citrus despite eating it by the spoonful. Next day, PCR negative. Blood shot eyes for days, dry cough 2 weeks later. 4 days of fatigue so bad I was in bed round the clock. But in the round I am now fine. We live in an age where we are overthinking getting ill. We never used to care what our bug’s name was, hopefully we return to those days soon.
    I suggest that "overthinking getting ill" is permissible when the globe is in the grip of a once-in-a-century pandemic which has already killed ~20million and crippled the world economy

    And if I were a wagering fellow, I'd say you probably had Covid and got a false negative...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 44,738

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Interesting to see Corbyn being mentioned by a few on here in respect of breaking lockdown rules.

    I take it from this sign of desperation that there's no dirt on Starmer breaking lockdown rules, which would possibly be more relevant.

    Or that we just all still hate Corbyn.
    Fair enough, but you just need to let go. He's gone. Finished. Focus your hate on Amanda Spielman if you must hate - she's still there.

    (Incidentally, I've been meaning to ask you - do you remember Christine Gilbert? She was an even worse HMCI than Spielman IMO).
    She was bad. Very bad. And appointed largely because she was having sex with a junior minister.

    But she was not worse than Spielman. She had at least been a teacher, albeit briefly, and knew what safeguarding was.
    Impressive memory. Tony McNulty - yes, very dodgy. She may have known what safeguarding was, but she really was completely clueless on everything else.
    Spielman, by contrast, doesn't know what safeguarding is *and* is completely clueless on everything else.

    It's not as though it's her first catastrophe either. Her botched exam reforms are a big reason why there's been so much controversy over teacher grades for the last two years.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 6,382
    Surely the first person who 100% has to resign is Rees-Mogg.

    He is on film laughing about partying and social distancing with people in shot not socially distanced.

    100% caught red handed.

    Now Boris may also be in trouble but not 100% - he may not have been at the Downing Street party. And it could be argued that Stratton was just responding to a joke question. So the issue here is whether the Downing Street party is on film.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 28,668
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Here's a tutorial from Sky on why a more transmissible but less severe variant is bad news:
    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-omicron-may-be-more-infectious-but-do-we-need-to-worry-if-it-causes-less-severe-disease-12489186

    The disturbing thing is that this is despite their having leaned over backwards to make much more optimistic assumptions than are justified by the facts. For illustration, they suppose the R number of Omicron will be 1.5. Estimates from South Africa suggest something more like 2.5. Even higher figures for its rate of spread relative to Delta in the UK have been reported today.

    And they suppose it will be only half as severe as Delta, even though we have no real evidence that it is any less severe. It's continually stated that disease in the current wave in South Africa is typically less severe than in the previous wave. But that's exactly what you would expect in a situation where (1) there was much less immunity in the population in the previous wave and (2) a new variant is escaping immunity so that a higher percentage of infections are in those already infected or vaccinated.

    Those numbers (with the caveat that they are "entirely made up") aren't very helpful in understanding how much of a risk there is from omicron because essentially all they are doing is comparing exponential growth with a constant rate of new infections. Obviously the former will produce scarier numbers, but we are no longer in the same position as March 2020.
    I am expecting a bit of a shitshow in the hospitals. Depleted staff numbers, people on much overdue leave getting stuck overseas, and the rest of us in isolation. This is what happened after a recent ICU staff Christmas party in Spain. 70 cases and the unit unable to staff.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1468266668749209605?t=GTj0CSAAEoFSiBp7Xticow&s=19
    Foxy, hello. Can I ask a medical question?

    Do you think the PCR tests are totally reliable?

    As you probably remember last week I thought I had Covid, but I got a negative LFT and then a negative PCR. But I've just recalled - I was semi-delirious at the time, so the anomaly has only just struck me -that for 24 hours of my illness I entirely lost my sense of smell. Anosmia. This wasn't the blocked nose diminishment of smell you get with a cold or the flu, it was a total loss of a faculty. I couldn't smell coffee, perfume, strong Cheddar, anything. Zip.

    Does that indicate I DID have Covid, and the PCR test was a false negative? Can that happen?

    FWIW I have never lost my sense of smell before; it was striking and odd, and actually a bit scary (at the idea it might be long lasting or even permanent)
    I think PCR is better than Lateral Flow, but both are very dependent on the quality of the sample. I am sure that poor swabbing accounts for a lot of false negatives.

    That said, the Anosmia of Covid is generally more prolonged than a single day. Mrs Foxy's sense of smell has never completely returned.

    An antibody test in a months time, able to distinguish between viral and vaccine antibodies may be the only way to be certain.
    Thanks. Useful. I might just do that AB test, to satisfy my curiosity

    My sympathies to your wife, anosmia is no joke, as I now - belatedly - realise

    And yes I agree that poor technique must produce a lot of debatable results. When I did my PCR I was so weak from whatever-I-had I could barely stand up. Let alone focus properly on a self-administered medical procedure. God knows what I actually swabbed. And did I keep the sample pure and clean? No idea
    She isn't completely anosmic, but it has affected her appreciation of more subtle bouquets with wine etc. It is strangely patchy too, so she can smell garlic fine, but tripe hardly at all. My dog loves tripe.

    Saving me a bit of money though, she actually prefers cheap prossecco from the Co-op to champagne.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 56,574
    MikeL said:

    Surely the first person who 100% has to resign is Rees-Mogg.

    He is on film laughing about partying and social distancing with people in shot not socially distanced.

    100% caught red handed.

    Now Boris may also be in trouble but not 100% - he may not have been at the Downing Street party. And it could be argued that Stratton was just responding to a joke question. So the issue here is whether the Downing Street party is on film.

    That footage was from a few days ago.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,541
    MikeL said:

    Surely the first person who 100% has to resign is Rees-Mogg.

    He is on film laughing about partying and social distancing with people in shot not socially distanced.

    100% caught red handed.

    Now Boris may also be in trouble but not 100% - he may not have been at the Downing Street party. And it could be argued that Stratton was just responding to a joke question. So the issue here is whether the Downing Street party is on film.

    Didn't someone further down say the JRM vid is from a few days ago and has been taken out of context?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 3,425
    I'm curious as to the role of Allegra Stratton. I rated her highly as a presenter on Newsnight etc., and would never have guessed her politics. I was surprised when she took on the role for BJ, but less so when I found out she was married to the Spectator editor.

    Nevertheless, I don't think she would be comfortable telling lies on behalf of the government, and I suspect that's why she's been sidelined. The ITV video supports this - I think she's laughing at the absurdity of it all, rather than because she things breaking the rules is funny. I doubt she leaked the footage herself, but I certainly think she knows exactly what's going on.
  • Here is how Britain’s head of state marked the funeral of the man she had been married to for 73 years. It might not seem immediately obvious in the reaction to news that the Prime Minister was throwing parties at Number 10 during that period, but I have a feeling this matters.



    https://twitter.com/OzKaterji/status/1468298704197140485

    What day is Audience Day?

    Oh, to be a fly on the wall...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 18,541

    Here is how Britain’s head of state marked the funeral of the man she had been married to for 73 years. It might not seem immediately obvious in the reaction to news that the Prime Minister was throwing parties at Number 10 during that period, but I have a feeling this matters.



    https://twitter.com/OzKaterji/status/1468298704197140485

    Her Majesty as always stoic, resolute, quietly dignified and in step with her people through good times and bad.

    We'll make a monarchist out of you yet TSE! :D
  • LeonLeon Posts: 14,762
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Here's a tutorial from Sky on why a more transmissible but less severe variant is bad news:
    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-omicron-may-be-more-infectious-but-do-we-need-to-worry-if-it-causes-less-severe-disease-12489186

    The disturbing thing is that this is despite their having leaned over backwards to make much more optimistic assumptions than are justified by the facts. For illustration, they suppose the R number of Omicron will be 1.5. Estimates from South Africa suggest something more like 2.5. Even higher figures for its rate of spread relative to Delta in the UK have been reported today.

    And they suppose it will be only half as severe as Delta, even though we have no real evidence that it is any less severe. It's continually stated that disease in the current wave in South Africa is typically less severe than in the previous wave. But that's exactly what you would expect in a situation where (1) there was much less immunity in the population in the previous wave and (2) a new variant is escaping immunity so that a higher percentage of infections are in those already infected or vaccinated.

    Those numbers (with the caveat that they are "entirely made up") aren't very helpful in understanding how much of a risk there is from omicron because essentially all they are doing is comparing exponential growth with a constant rate of new infections. Obviously the former will produce scarier numbers, but we are no longer in the same position as March 2020.
    I am expecting a bit of a shitshow in the hospitals. Depleted staff numbers, people on much overdue leave getting stuck overseas, and the rest of us in isolation. This is what happened after a recent ICU staff Christmas party in Spain. 70 cases and the unit unable to staff.

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1468266668749209605?t=GTj0CSAAEoFSiBp7Xticow&s=19
    Foxy, hello. Can I ask a medical question?

    Do you think the PCR tests are totally reliable?

    As you probably remember last week I thought I had Covid, but I got a negative LFT and then a negative PCR. But I've just recalled - I was semi-delirious at the time, so the anomaly has only just struck me -that for 24 hours of my illness I entirely lost my sense of smell. Anosmia. This wasn't the blocked nose diminishment of smell you get with a cold or the flu, it was a total loss of a faculty. I couldn't smell coffee, perfume, strong Cheddar, anything. Zip.

    Does that indicate I DID have Covid, and the PCR test was a false negative? Can that happen?

    FWIW I have never lost my sense of smell before; it was striking and odd, and actually a bit scary (at the idea it might be long lasting or even permanent)
    I think PCR is better than Lateral Flow, but both are very dependent on the quality of the sample. I am sure that poor swabbing accounts for a lot of false negatives.

    That said, the Anosmia of Covid is generally more prolonged than a single day. Mrs Foxy's sense of smell has never completely returned.

    An antibody test in a months time, able to distinguish between viral and vaccine antibodies may be the only way to be certain.
    Thanks. Useful. I might just do that AB test, to satisfy my curiosity

    My sympathies to your wife, anosmia is no joke, as I now - belatedly - realise

    And yes I agree that poor technique must produce a lot of debatable results. When I did my PCR I was so weak from whatever-I-had I could barely stand up. Let alone focus properly on a self-administered medical procedure. God knows what I actually swabbed. And did I keep the sample pure and clean? No idea
    She isn't completely anosmic, but it has affected her appreciation of more subtle bouquets with wine etc. It is strangely patchy too, so she can smell garlic fine, but tripe hardly at all. My dog loves tripe.

    Saving me a bit of money though, she actually prefers cheap prossecco from the Co-op to champagne.
    Ah, a silver lining!

    One of the most sinister if "trivial" consequences of Covid, as I have read, is that it not only makes some people anosmic, it can make generally pleasant aromas unspeakably vile - so-called "parosmia"


    https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20201109/covid-19-can-warp-the-senses-even-after-recovery


    What a wretched little fucker this virus is. Yet another reason for us to establish where it came from
This discussion has been closed.